Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
2014
India
Highlights
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2.8
4.0
1.0
3.3
4.4
5.3
-1.0
4.7
0.6
10.1
-2.8
-5.9
-49.2
-150.8
9.32
58.6
4.5
6.2
2.0
2.9
6.3
6.3
1.7
5.3
1.9
7.3
-1.0
-4.7
-18.5
-133.1
9.07
60.9
5.3
4.1
4.8
4.1
2.7
6.7
5.2
5.7
3.9
6.0
-1.5
-4.3
-30.7
-146.8
8.57
62.1
5.9
6.7
6.1
3.5
6.7
6.6
5.8
6.1
6.5
6.4
-1.6
-3.9
-35.4
-155.8
8.43
63.6
6.6
6.7
6.8
3.3
6.7
5.8
6.7
6.3
6.1
6.3
-1.5
-3.5
-38.1
-170.9
8.22
65.7
6.7
6.8
6.7
3.3
6.2
5.5
6.6
6.4
5.8
6.0
-1.5
-3.2
-41.3
-189.9
7.95
68.5
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
Forecast Overview
GDP growth slowed in Q3
The Indian economy expanded by 5.3% year-on-year in
Q3 2014, slowing from the 5.7% growth seen in Q2.
Services output rose by a reasonably robust 7.1%, but
manufacturing output grew just 0.1%. The expenditure
breakdown was also a disappointment: while investment
stagnated, government spending rose by more than
10%.
Given that the performance of the economy in Q2 was
buoyed by a number of one-off factors, the slowdown in
Q3 was expected. We still expect GDP to increase by
5.3% in 2014 as a whole modestly stronger than the
sub-5% expansions achieved in 2012 and 2013.
Domestic
demand
GDP
F'cast
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Net exports
-4
-6
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
10
8
6
4
2
0
Wholesale prices (WPI)
-2
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
India
China
Brazil
-100
Malaysia
12
Sth Africa
Russia
India: Prices
% year
14
Indonesia
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
8
7
6
5
4
3
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Source : Reserve Bank of India
Indonesia
Thailand
83
Brazil
77
66
Russia
60
Mexico
59
57
China
50
Turkey
47
Singapore
46
Poland
39
Malaysia
39
South Africa
32
20
40
60
80
100
Source : IMF
% of GDP
70
Government
debt (RHS)
60
-2
50
-4
40
-6
Central government
balance (LHS)
-8
30
F'cast
-10
20
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
Risk index (0=no risk, 100=highest risk)
Risk Assessment
Indias economic situation deteriorated significantly
between 2011 and 2013, making the country more
vulnerable to domestic or external shocks. GDP growth
slowed, while the twin deficits have only recently
narrowed from unsustainable levels after drastic action
by the government, including policies to curb gold
imports (recently removed) and sharp cuts to capital
spending. The economy is now much more stable but
there are still downside risks.
2013
2014
2017
India
World average
46
29
46
28
43
26
Sovereign risk
Trade credit risk
Political risk
Regulatory risk
45
50
54
33
45
50
51
33
38
51
51
30
Risk warnings
Emerging risks
GDP growth
Growth to gradually
accelerate above 6%
CPI inflation
Government balance
Government debt
External debt
External debt at a
manageable level
Risk scenarios
Risk off
Russia isolated
-1
Baseline
Investment
standstill in China
Risk off
3
2
US and Eurozone
upside surprise
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
Long-Term Prospects
Long-term growth limited to about 6%
GDP growth in India is expected to average 6.3% a year
in 2016-19, up from 5.2% a year in 2013-15. This
improvement will be driven by:
Potential
12000
9000
6000
Actual
3000
0
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2014-2023
7.6
1.7
9.2
3.2
5.9
1.8
6.9
2.3
Potential GDP*
Employment at NAIRU
Capital Stock
Total Factor Productivity
2004-2008
2009-2013
2014-2018
2019-2023
GDP
Consumption
Investment
Government Consumption
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Unemployment (%)
8.7
7.4
15.0
6.4
23.9
21.0
7.5
6.6
6.8
5.7
7.1
7.7
7.1
5.9
6.0
6.1
5.2
5.7
6.2
5.2
5.5
6.2
6.5
6.1
5.5
5.4
6.9
5.5
Consumer Prices
Current Balance (% of GDP)
Exchange Rate (vs US$)
General Government Balance (% of GDP)
Short-term Interest Rates (%)
5.6
-1.2
43.9
-4.0
7.5
9.9
-3.5
50.6
-6.1
8.0
6.4
-1.4
64.2
-3.9
8.4
5.0
-1.1
74.3
-2.6
7.5
Working Population
Labour Supply
Participation Ratio
Labour Productivity
2.0
1.8
-0.2
6.4
1.8
1.6
-0.2
4.6
1.5
1.9
0.2
4.0
1.2
1.7
0.6
4.4
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
Background
Having rarely recorded GDP growth of above 7% prior to 2003, the Indian economy chalked up five consecutive
years above that figure between 2003-07, with 9%+ growth registered in 2005-07. This not only propelled the
country into the economic fast lane alongside China but also meant that it was making an important
contribution to the overall increase in world GDP. However, India still has a very long way to go along the
development path. According to the IMF, Indias GDP per capita using market prices and exchange rates was
just US$1,509 in 2013 while on a PPP basis it was US$5,449; the equivalent figures for China were US$6,958
and US$11,867 respectively.
But structural problems including supply-side bottlenecks in key sectors such as power and transport,
widespread corruption, bureaucratic hurdles and the lack of a transparent and disciplined policy framework
have contributed to a sharp slowdown in Indias economic growth, from above 8% to less than 5% in the last
couple of years. As a result, in the 2014 general elections, the Indian electorate, battered by high inflation and
poor economic conditions, delivered a clear mandate in favour of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The BJP won 282 seats of 543 in the lower house of parliament, comfortably above the 272 required for a
simple majority. Meanwhile the Congress party, which had been in power for the past ten years, suffered a
humiliating defeat. They won only 44 seats, not even crossing the 10% threshold required to form the
opposition. This marks an end to coalition politics in India for the first time since 1984. A decisive government
will speed-up decision-making at the centre and reduce political risk, although powerful state governments can
still slow the implementation of changes wrought by the national government.
With two-thirds of the population living in the countryside and more than half the labour force working in the
sector, agriculture is still a key part of the economy. However, in the eleven years to 2009 it only grew by 3.6%
pa in real terms so its share in the overall economy has fallen significantly, from 20.8% in 2002 to 13.8% in
2012. By contrast, the most dynamic sector has been the services sector, recording 9.4% annual growth
between 2002 and 2012, with major expansions in distribution, transport, communication, finance and business
services. Construction has also boomed, growing by more than 9% pa over the same period. Industry has
performed more modestly, with manufacturing recording 8% pa growth.
With the boom in the services sector helping to create a relatively affluent middle class, said to be 300m-strong,
the links between rural incomes and industrial activity have weakened. Rising incomes and increased access to
credit have led to much higher spending on consumer durables such as cars, phones and other electronic
items. However, the higher level of inflation since 2005 has particularly constrained the purchasing power of the
urban and rural poor. And if the economy is to sustain a high level of growth for several decades, it will need to
ensure that an ever-wider number of people are raised above virtual subsistence living, by increasing both
output and productivity growth in agriculture, raising educational standards and making cities more attractive to
migrants.
The 2000s saw a significant integration of the economy with the rest of the world. Exports of services (largely
software and business outsourcing) accounted for 8.5% of GDP in 2013 compared to 4.1% in 2002, while the
equivalent ratio for merchandise exports increased from 10.9% to 18.3%. Allied to this has been a sharp
increase in foreign investment in India, either in the form of FDI (despite the many bureaucratic hurdles) or in
portfolio flows.
The rapid growth in the economy in 2003-07 enabled a sharp fall in the central government budget deficit, from
5.9% of GDP in 2002/03 to 2.7% in 2007/08. However, relatively little was done during this time to widen the tax
base. The cyclical nature of the improvement in the budget over these years was shown by the speed of the
fiscal deterioration in H2 2008 as the economy slowed sharply. Indeed the fiscal deficit widened to 6.7% of GDP
in 2009/10. By 2013/14 it was down to 4.9%, but the pace of fiscal consolidation was much slower than planned
and the fiscal gap was still uncomfortably wide compared to many other emerging economies.
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Bank
Credit
CPI
Industrial
workers
CPI
Combined
rural & urban
PPI
Exports
(US$)
Imports
(US$)
Trade
balance
-1.2
-1.3
0.1
16.6
14.2
14.5
11.1
11.5
9.1
10.2
11.2
9.9
7.2
7.5
6.4
14.3
3.6
3.7
-13.9
-16.5
-14.8
$ bn
-10.6
-9.7
-10.3
1.1
-2.0
-0.5
3.7
5.6
4.3
0.4
0.5
2.5
-
14.7
14.3
14.3
14.3
13.0
13.3
13.3
10.9
11.0
11.2
7.2
6.7
6.7
7.1
7.0
6.5
7.2
6.8
6.3
5.0
8.8
8.0
8.3
8.6
8.3
7.5
8.0
7.7
6.5
5.5
5.1
5.0
6.0
5.5
6.2
5.7
5.4
3.9
2.4
1.8
4.0
-5.7
-0.7
-0.4
10.0
8.9
8.1
0.2
2.7
-5.0
-18.9
-17.9
0.8
-13.8
-10.8
9.0
4.6
1.2
25.5
3.6
-9.5
-8.3
-11.0
-11.4
-11.8
-12.3
-12.2
-11.1
-14.1
-13.4
Nov
Dec
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Repo
rate
%
7.75
7.75
Money
Supply M3
% p.a
14.9
14.8
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
14.5
14.5
13.2
13.7
13.5
12.2
12.7
13.0
12.7
12.7
-
62.1
62.3
61.0
60.4
59.3
59.7
60.1
60.9
60.9
61.3
61.7
71.1
70.8
72.1
72.7
74.2
73.8
73.3
72.7
73.6
73.7
-
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
Share
price
End per.
20792
21171
20514
21120
22386
22418
24217
25414
25895
26638
26631
27866
28694
Reserves Reserves
cover
$bn
months
263.7
7.8
268.6
7.3
264.6
266.9
276.4
282.0
285.3
288.8
293.8
291.4
287.4
290.4
290.8
7.3
8.0
6.7
7.9
7.3
7.5
7.3
7.8
6.7
7.4
-
10 Dec
2014
India
INDIA
CONSUMERS
EXPENDITURE
TOTAL
FINAL
EXPENDITURE
TOTAL
FIXED
INVESTMENT
REAL
GDP
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
PRIVATE
SECTOR
BANK
CREDIT
(BPRIV)
GOVERNMENT
BANK
BORROWING
COMPETITIVENESS
(2008=100)
PRODUCER
PRICES
CONSUMER
PRICES
(BGOV)
WHOLE
ECONOMY
PRODUCTIVITY
(GDP/ET)
(C)
(TFE)
(IF)
(GDP)
(IP)
(WCR)
(PPI)
(CPI)
6.55
3.23
4.88
5.61
6.06
6.42
6.45
2.40
1.00
1.97
4.77
6.06
6.82
6.65
4.81
4.70
5.29
5.74
6.14
6.34
6.39
0.72
0.60
1.91
3.93
6.50
6.12
5.77
16.54
14.23
10.69
11.90
12.86
12.89
12.60
15.47
13.18
9.74
10.34
9.41
8.73
8.29
2.96
3.00
3.51
3.89
4.19
4.27
4.33
96.68
93.88
94.01
99.07
99.11
96.51
93.28
7.55
6.32
4.09
3.59
4.24
4.28
4.27
9.70
10.07
7.29
5.99
6.38
6.26
6.03
8.24
5.04
4.74
5.07
9.53
5.47
6.30
4.89
10.23
-4.08
-0.63
4.44
5.77
4.46
4.62
4.38
0.63
-0.28
0.41
2.09
17.08
18.41
15.70
15.15
15.68
16.67
15.34
14.27
3.81
2.54
2.81
2.64
99.20
95.08
95.22
97.21
7.50
7.54
7.87
7.29
8.62
10.18
9.88
10.07
5.15
5.64
2.83
2.75
4.27
3.55
3.92
1.26
3.32
-2.80
3.11
0.18
4.44
4.66
5.16
4.56
2.22
-1.00
1.90
-0.77
14.18
13.56
15.13
14.05
15.36
14.39
9.37
13.90
2.75
3.00
3.44
2.84
98.18
96.61
90.30
90.42
6.74
4.84
6.64
7.05
10.70
9.52
9.67
10.40
8.23
5.64
5.81
5.27
3.78
4.25
4.78
6.71
-0.86
7.03
0.02
2.29
4.61
5.71
5.33
5.53
-0.43
4.54
1.13
2.63
13.86
10.39
7.53
11.17
10.32
5.69
11.84
11.08
2.87
3.94
3.54
3.73
91.65
95.16
94.61
94.61
5.38
5.80
3.87
1.46
8.38
8.10
7.38
5.43
0.90
3.91
5.30
6.26
5.98
5.56
5.45
5.43
4.38
3.10
6.12
5.46
5.86
5.55
5.68
5.84
2.91
1.94
4.85
6.09
8.49
12.15
13.72
13.15
10.16
12.05
9.72
9.54
4.04
3.71
3.82
3.97
97.84
99.12
99.66
99.64
2.88
3.37
3.82
4.26
5.67
5.90
6.09
6.27
6.65
6.80
6.79
6.74
5.73
5.94
6.18
6.39
5.60
5.92
6.22
6.52
6.01
6.11
6.19
6.26
6.43
6.55
6.57
6.47
13.03
13.37
12.61
12.49
9.46
9.53
9.41
9.25
4.11
4.18
4.22
4.26
99.61
99.49
99.05
98.30
4.23
4.21
4.25
4.26
6.36
6.41
6.39
6.37
6.72
6.71
6.72
6.76
6.41
6.43
6.43
6.42
6.76
6.86
6.87
6.82
6.30
6.34
6.36
6.37
6.27
6.17
6.08
5.99
13.05
12.91
12.83
12.79
8.88
8.83
8.67
8.56
4.26
4.27
4.28
4.28
97.34
97.11
96.30
95.27
4.27
4.30
4.29
4.27
6.35
6.29
6.23
6.18
6.78
6.81
6.83
6.85
6.42
6.44
6.45
6.47
6.74
6.69
6.63
6.55
6.38
6.39
6.40
6.41
5.90
5.81
5.73
5.65
12.74
12.67
12.57
12.45
8.32
8.38
8.27
8.18
4.29
4.31
4.34
4.36
94.31
93.81
93.01
91.98
4.25
4.25
4.29
4.31
6.14
6.07
6.00
5.93
REAL
SHORT-TERM
INTEREST
RATE
(Note 1)
EQUILIBRIUM
EXCHANGE
RATE PER
US DOLLAR
(RXEQUIL)
EXCHANGE
RATE PER
US
DOLLAR
(RXD)
YEARS BEGINNING Q1
2012
5.74
2013
4.05
2014
6.23
2015
4.11
2016
6.74
2017
6.73
2018
6.82
2012
I
II
III
IV
2013
I
II
III
IV
2014
I
II
III
IV
2015
I
II
III
IV
2016
I
II
III
IV
2017
I
II
III
IV
2018
I
II
III
IV
INDIA
TRADE
BALANCE
($ BN)
CURRENT
ACCOUNT
($ BN)
CURRENT
ACCOUNT
(% OF GDP)
(BVI$)
(BCU$)
(BCUR%)
YEARS BEGINNING Q1
2012
-192.9
2013
-150.8
2014
-133.1
2015
-146.8
2016
-155.8
2017
-170.9
2018
-189.9
-91.5
-49.2
-18.5
-30.7
-35.4
-38.1
-41.3
-5.3
-2.8
-1.0
-1.5
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
GOVERNMENT
FINANCIAL
BALANCE
(RUPEES BN)
(GB)
-5334.2
-6015.8
-5346.1
-5472.5
-5694.8
-5655.7
-5804.5
2012
I
-46.0
-21.7
-4.8
-1287.2
II
-43.0
-16.9
-4.2
-1904.6
III
-48.8
-21.0
-5.3
-1464.4
IV
-55.0
-31.9
-7.0
-678.0
2013
I
-43.5
-18.1
-3.9
-851.9
II
-47.4
-21.8
-5.1
-2628.2
III
-29.3
-5.2
-1.3
-1492.7
IV
-30.6
-4.2
-0.9
-1043.0
2014
I
-28.8
-1.2
-0.3
82.4
II
-35.6
-7.8
-1.7
-2978.6
III
-37.3
-4.3
-0.9
-1409.7
IV
-31.4
-5.2
-1.0
-1040.3
2015
I
-38.1
-14.3
-2.8
134.2
II
-43.0
-14.8
-3.1
-2992.9
III
-37.1
0.9
0.2
-1473.2
IV
-28.6
-2.6
-0.5
-1140.6
2016
I
-39.9
-15.6
-2.7
216.1
II
-45.6
-15.7
-2.9
-3272.5
III
-39.6
2.0
0.4
-1511.9
IV
-30.7
-6.1
-1.0
-1126.5
2017
I
-43.3
-15.8
-2.5
499.7
II
-49.7
-16.2
-2.8
-3534.9
III
-43.7
3.1
0.5
-1507.1
IV
-34.2
-9.1
-1.4
-1113.4
2018
I
-48.1
-16.4
-2.4
735.5
II
-55.3
-17.7
-2.8
-3846.1
III
-48.5
3.2
0.5
-1555.8
IV
-38.0
-10.3
-1.4
-1138.1
Note 1 : REAL INTEREST RATE = Nominal interest rate (RSH) - % change in CPI
GOVERNMENT
FINANCIAL
BALANCE
(% OF GDP)
(GB*100
/GDP!)
SHORT-TERM
INTEREST
RATE
(RSH)
SPREAD
OVER US
SHORT-TERM
RATE
(RSH RSH US)
-5.8
-5.9
-4.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.5
-3.2
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.6
8.4
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.0
8.8
8.0
6.6
5.3
4.2
-0.2
-0.8
1.8
2.6
2.0
2.0
1.9
50.8
54.6
58.6
62.3
65.4
68.2
70.5
53.5
58.6
60.9
62.1
63.6
65.7
68.5
-5.6
-8.7
-6.6
-2.8
10.3
9.8
9.1
8.7
9.8
9.3
8.7
8.4
1.7
-0.4
-0.8
-1.3
49.6
50.4
51.2
52.1
50.3
54.2
55.2
54.1
-3.4
-10.9
-6.0
-3.8
9.2
8.5
10.3
9.3
8.9
8.2
10.0
9.0
-1.5
-1.0
0.6
-1.1
53.0
54.0
55.1
56.1
54.2
55.9
62.1
62.0
0.3
-11.0
-5.2
-3.3
9.6
9.1
8.9
8.7
9.3
8.9
8.6
8.5
1.2
1.0
1.5
3.3
57.1
58.0
58.9
60.3
61.8
59.8
60.6
61.6
0.4
-10.0
-4.7
-3.3
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.0
7.4
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.2
61.1
61.9
62.7
63.5
61.8
61.9
62.2
62.5
0.6
-9.7
-4.3
-2.8
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.4
7.1
6.8
6.3
6.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
64.2
65.0
65.8
66.5
62.8
63.3
63.8
64.3
1.2
-9.3
-3.8
-2.5
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
67.2
67.9
68.5
69.1
64.8
65.3
66.0
66.8
1.6
-9.0
-3.5
-2.3
8.0
8.0
7.9
7.8
4.5
4.2
4.1
4.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
69.7
70.2
70.8
71.2
67.5
68.2
68.9
69.6
Economist: Nida Ali | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
10 Dec
2014
India
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
GDP
Consumption
Investment
Government Consumption
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Unemployment (%)
2004-2013
7.6
7.1
10.3
6.7
15.5
13.8
6.7
9.3
7.5
15.2
7.9
13.8
17.8
6.1
7.7
10.1
11.5
6.2
20.8
18.2
5.8
4.8
5.7
2.4
7.6
8.3
11.6
5.6
4.7
4.0
1.0
4.4
5.3
-1.0
5.6
5.3
6.2
2.0
6.3
6.3
1.7
5.6
5.7
4.1
4.8
2.7
6.7
5.2
5.5
6.1
6.7
6.1
6.7
6.6
5.8
5.5
6.3
6.7
6.8
6.7
5.8
6.7
5.5
6.4
6.8
6.7
6.2
5.5
6.6
5.5
6.4
6.9
6.3
5.8
5.4
6.8
5.5
6.3
6.8
6.1
5.4
5.2
6.9
5.5
6.2
6.6
6.0
5.3
5.0
7.0
5.5
6.1
6.3
6.1
5.4
5.5
7.2
5.5
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.5
6.1
6.6
5.5
6.1
6.3
5.7
5.6
5.8
6.0
5.5
Consumer Prices
Current Balance (% of GDP)
Exchange Rate (per $)
General Government Balance (% of GDP)
Short-term Interest Rates (%)
Working Population
Labour Supply
Participation Ratio (%)
Labour productivity
Employment
7.7
-2.3
47.2
-5.1
7.8
1.9
1.7
53.6
5.5
2.0
10.3
-3.6
45.7
-4.0
6.3
1.8
1.6
53.4
7.2
2.0
9.6
-3.6
46.7
-7.2
9.5
1.8
1.6
53.3
5.6
1.9
9.7
-5.4
53.5
-5.8
9.5
1.7
1.6
53.2
3.0
1.8
10.1
-2.8
58.6
-5.9
9.3
1.7
1.6
53.1
3.0
1.6
7.3
-1.0
60.9
-4.7
9.1
1.6
1.7
53.1
3.5
1.7
6.0
-1.5
62.1
-4.3
8.6
1.5
1.8
53.1
3.9
1.8
6.4
-1.6
63.6
-3.9
8.4
1.5
1.9
53.2
4.2
1.9
6.3
-1.5
65.7
-3.5
8.2
1.4
2.0
53.4
4.3
2.0
6.0
-1.5
68.5
-3.2
7.9
1.4
2.0
53.7
4.3
2.0
5.7
-1.1
70.9
-2.8
7.7
1.3
1.9
54.1
4.4
1.9
5.3
-1.1
72.4
-2.5
7.5
1.2
1.8
54.4
4.4
1.8
5.0
-1.1
74.0
-2.5
7.4
1.2
1.7
54.7
4.4
1.7
4.6
-1.2
75.9
-2.6
7.4
1.1
1.6
55.0
4.4
1.7
4.2
-1.2
78.2
-2.7
7.3
1.1
1.5
55.3
4.3
1.6
5.7
-1.3
69.2
-3.3
8.0
1.3
1.8
54.0
4.2
1.8
0.1
1.0
1.4
0.0
-1.6
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.7
-2.5
-2.2
-1.9
-1.4
-1.0
-0.6
-2.0
Economist: Nida Ali, Economist | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
2023 2014-2023
10 Dec
2014
India
Key Facts
Politics
Chief of state: President Pranab MUKHERJEE
Head of government: Prime Minister Narendra MODI
Political system: Federal republic
Date of next presidential election: July 2017
Date of next legislative election: 2019
Currency: Indian rupee (INR)
2000
457
4.0
1044
27.7
62.2
2013*
1499
10.1
1254
32.0
66.2
* 2013 or latest
available year
2013
18.2%
24.8%
57.0%
Foreign currency
BBB- (Stable)
Baa3 (Stable)
BBB- (Stable)
Local currency
BBB- (Stable)
Baa3 (Stable)
BBB- (Stable)
Score
74.5
37.3
36.0
34.7
1990
-7.4
-5.6
0.2
1995
-5.9
-4.1
2.0
2000
-4.9
-9.2
3.1
2013*
-49.2
-150.8
26.4
8.1
34.9
26.2
13.6
34.4
26.0
11.0
17.5
21.2
39.4
8.5
23.5
660
1168
703
1575
646
2127
772
3622
Manufactures
40.3%
Other goods
exports
0.1%
Agricultural
products
10.2%
Transportation
3.7%
16.7%
12.5%
10.1%
4.9%
4.2%
Other
commercial
services
24.6%
Travel
4.0%
Source : WTO
Economist: Nida Ali, Economist | Tel: +44 207 803 1423 | e-mail: nali@oxfordeconomics.com
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