Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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October 19, 2015

Vol 5.Issue XV

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Oryza Overnight Recap Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Little Changed on Light Volume
Overnight
Oct 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery are currently noted 3.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per
ton) higher at $12.315 per cwt (about $271 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading mostly lower overnight; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.1%
lower, wheat is listed about 0.6% higher and corn is currently noted 0.2% lower.
U.S. stock index futures indicated a flat to slightly higher open on Friday, with traders keenly
anticipating the release of economic data for any signs of softness that would reinforce the
pervading view that the Fed is on hold for now. Stocks surged Thursday amid speculation the
Fed would not hike rates until sometime next year, with weak economic reports feeding that
view.
The market got a nudge from a comment by New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who said he
would favor a rate hike this year, but it depends on the strength of the economy. He then added
that recent data indicates the economy is slowing. On the data front, Friday will see both
industrial production and capacity utilization released at 9:15 a.m. ET, with consumer sentiment
and the job openings and labor turnover survey, or JOLTs, released at 10:00 a.m. In Europe, the
pan-European Stoxx 600 index held about half a percent higher ahead of the U.S. market open.
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished 1.08% higher, while in China the Shanghai Composite closed
1.62% higher. Gold is currently trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2%
higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:30am Chicago time.

India 2015-16 Main Paddy Rice Planting

Slows Down as it Nears Completion
Oct 16, 2015

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Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) is continuing to
lag behind last year due to poor post-monsoon rains. Total rice planted area stood at around
37.824 million hectares as of October 16, 2015, slightly down from around 37.967 million
hectares planted during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture
Ministry.
India received 46% below-average rainfall as of October 15, according to the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD). The North-west, Central, North-East and southern regions
received 81%, 69%, 54% and 3% below-average rains respectively.
A likely drought-inducing El Nino this year is expected to lower production prospects in India
this year. Extending drought conditions are already dampening production prospects in Thailand,
Indonesia and the Philippines. Rice prices in Asia are expected to surge due to expected lower
supplies.
The government of India forecasts 2015-16 kharif (June - December) rice production at around
90.6 million tons, slightly down from around 90.86 million tons in 2014-15.

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The total Kharif crop sown area stands at 103.881 million hectares as on October 16, 2015, up
about 1.2% from around 102.585 million hectares during the same period last year, according to
the Agriculture Ministry.

Pakistan Banks Unwilling to Roll Over Rice

Sector Loans on Blanket Basis, Says SBP
Official
Oct 16, 2015

Commercial banks in Pakistan are reportedly unwilling to roll over or reschedule rice sector
loans on a blanket basis, local sources quoted the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) spokesperson.
Commercial banks are only accommodating those rice millers, exporters, and rice growers who
are having genuine difficulties in repaying their loans, said the SBP official.
The final decision to reschedule loans is to be taken by the individual banks based on the merit
of individual case. Some cases might have merit issues and banks might be reluctant to
reschedule, he added.
The Prime Minister announced a rollover of loans until June 2016 as part of the relief package
given to the sector last month. The commercial banks also agreed to the proposal in a meeting
with the SBP. However, no bank has so far implemented the loan roll overs. They have been in
fact pressurizing millers and farmers to pay loans on time.
Rice exporters, millers and growers are already struggling with declining prices and increasing
stocks. The country reportedly has about 500,000 tons of unsold basmati stocks.
If loans are not rolled over, the rice sector stakeholders fear that their problems would be
compounded and the outcome would be bad for the whole sector, which is a major contributor of
the foreign exchange in the country.

Oryza Exclusive Interview - India and

Pakistan Should Jointly Chart Out a
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Strategy to Protect Basmati Prices, Says BGA

President
Oct 16, 2015

In an exclusive interview with Oryza, Mr. Choudhry Hamid Malhi, President of the Basmati
Growers Association (BGA) of Pakistan shares his views about the dwindling basmati rice
prices both in India and Pakistan. He also talks about the actions to be taken by the two
governments. Excerpts from the interview.
Oryza: Export prices of Indian basmati are falling since the beginning of this year due to rising
supplies and falling demand. Can the government be successful in protecting prices with the
imposition of MEP?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: MEP is the only way prices of Basmati rice can be stabilised at a level which
is not detrimental to the farmers in particular and the sector in general.
Oryza: Will the measure really help farmers who are currently not in a position to even recover
production costs? How much MEP do you think would be optimum?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: The cost of production has risen manifold in the last decade and there is no
other way out but to impose MEP to ensure that at least Basmati Rice is not exported at
throwaway prices below 1000USD. The best strategy would be to involve the Commerce
Ministry of Pakistan in the decision so that the same is also enforced by Pakistan.
Oryza: Why do you think the Indian government is not taking appropriate measure to curtail
price falls so far?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: Sheer indifference to farmers problems.
Oryza: There are doubts whether traders and millers would procure basmati paddy in the usual
manner due to lower export demand especially for the PUSA 1509 variety. They are already
unwilling to buy paddy at the government MSP. What could be ideal solution in this situation?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: The demand is not low but instead the buyer is enjoying the benefits of
competition amongst the two Basmati growing countries of the world. Had there been a well
thought out MEP joint strategy in place as I had suggested last year to Chairman APEDA, things
would have been much better. Even now if the two governments join to fight this set back in
Basmati prices I think there is no reason why prices would not recover.
Oryza: What if stocks increase with farmers and millers? What would be the impact of this
development on prices?

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Mr.Hamid Malhi: In a scenario where stocks pile up and prices continue to fall it would be
disastrous for the whole sector. This is the third year of this downfall and all players have lost
savings and some are even under debt.
Oryza: Export prices of Pakistan Basmati are also down by about 38% from their year ago
levels. Are the Pakistan basmati prices relatively better than those of India's?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: They are worse than India and the paddy prices are extremely low in the
absence of any government regulatory mechanism.
Oryza: What else do you think are similar between Pakistan and India basmati rice sectors?
Mr.Hamid Malhi: India has a much larger production and export of Basmati and thus has more
to lose in the shape of loss in export earnings.

USDA Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade to

Decline 2% y/y to 42.4 Million Tons
Oct 16, 2015

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In its October Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 42.4 million
tons, down 2% from an estimated 43.2 million tons in 2014, and unchanged from last month's
forecast. USDA expects a 2 million ton or 18% decline y/y in 2015 Thai rice exports and weaker
shipments from Egypt, but says an increase from other countries such as India, Pakistan and the
U.S. may not fully compensate for fall in Thai exports.
On the exports side, there were no major significant revisions, says USDA. On the imports side,
USDA lowered prospects Iraq, Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, Ghana and Mauritius.
USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 42 million tons, slightly down from last month's
forecast of 42.2 million tons and estimated 42.44 million tons in 2015. It lowered 2016 export prospects
for India, Myanmar, Cambodia and the U.S., but increased forecasts for Thailand, Pakistan and Egypt. It
lowered 2016 import forecasts for Iraq, Mexico, Hong Kong, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Mauritius, South
Africa and Tanzania, but increased forecasts for the Philippines.

Japan Feed-Rice Production to Reach

420,000 Tons in 2015
Oct 16, 2015

Japan's feed-rice output in 2015 is likely to reach around 420,000 tons, more than double of
around 187,000 tons in 2014, Bloomberg quoted a report by the Agriculture Ministry.
The Ministry forecasted in May that the feed-rice output would reach around 350,000 tons.
USDA estimates Japan to produce about 10.772 million tons of paddy (around 7.84 million tons,
basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (November - October) and import around 650,000 tons of rice in
2015.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Erase Yesterday's Gains as
Bears Regain Control, Prices Fall over $1/cwt
in Two Weeks
Oct 17, 2015

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Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 17 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) lower at
$12.110 per cwt (about $267 per ton). The other grains finished mostly lower today, with only
corn managing to close in the green; Soybeans closed about 0.8% lower at $8.9825 per bushel;
wheat finished about 2% lower at $4.9225 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.3%
higher at $3.7675 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded in a range Friday amid data releases and continued expectations of a delay in a
Fed rate hike. The major averages held little changed in afternoon trade after briefly giving up
most of their opening gains. Stocks rallied Thursday, with the Dow up more than 200 points and
the Nasdaq jumping more than 1.5%.On the data front, industrial production declined 0.2% in
September, with capacity utilization at 77.5%.
The preliminary read on October consumer sentiment came in at 92.1. JOLTS showed 5.37
million job openings for August. In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ended 0.6%
higher. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished 1.08% higher. In early afternoon trade, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 22 points, or 0.13%, at 17,164. The S&P 500 rose 1 point, or 0.10%,
at 2,025, with consumer staples leading five sectors higher and energy the greatest decliner. The
Nasdaq fell 2 points, or 0.06%, at 4,867. Gold is trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen
trading about 1.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher about 1:00pm
Chicago time.
Thursday, there were 2,122 contracts traded, down from 4,529 contracts traded on Wednesday.
Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on Thursday increased by 98 contracts to
12,804.

Oryza Weekly: Global Rice Prices Continue

to Increase Amid El Nino Concerns
Oct 17, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,
ended the week at about $392 per ton, up about $2 per ton from a week ago, up about $1 per ton
from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago. El Nino seems to have provided
a floor to the global rice market. Forward expectations are that the price recovery may be flat to
slow for a while, no V-shaped price recovery. The USDA is projecting lower rice production
and trade in 2015-16. USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice production (milled basis) at around
474 million tons, down about 1% from last year due to an expected decline in acreage as well as
decline in average yields, which are likely to be affected by adverse weather conditions. It
forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 42.4 million tons, down 2% from an estimated 43.2
million tons in 2014, and unchanged from last month's forecast.
Global macroeconomics remains shaky amid uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve
will raise interest rates, a move that will likely precede a stronger USD. Expectations for a rate

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hike continue to be pushed further out, possibly into 2016 at this point, as economic data
disappoints again and again.

Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week
ago, up about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per ton from a year ago.
Adverse weather seems to be supporting prices, but its not clear yet how much this could
translate into lower sales.
Rice exports declined sharply in August after increasing about 7% m/m in July. In August,
Thailand exported about 696,919 tons of rice, about 5% less than in July and about 29% less than
in August 2014.

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The military government plans to seize the assets of the former Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra to compensate the losses incurred by the state under the rice pledging scheme
introduced by her government in 2011.
The government of Thailand has canceled sales of around 345,472 tons of stockpiled rice made
in the auction conducted on September 29 because prices have increased since the auction.
The government continues to advise farmers to avoid off-season rice planting since water levels
in the reservoirs are not sufficient for rice farming.
Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week
ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $75 per ton from a year ago. Viet
and Indian rice quotes are just behind Thai quotes recovering in recent weeks on export sales and
El Nino concerns.
The Vietnam Food Association this week reiterated plans to develop a national brand for
Vietnams rice based on the jasmine type.
In Cambodia, 5% broken rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a
week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year
ago.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $355 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago,
down about $25 per ton from a month ago, and down about $65 per ton from a year ago. Indian
rice quotes for 5% are $10 per ton behind Thailand but $45 per ton above Pakistan.
El Nino has had little effect on Indias rice acreage. Total rice planted area stood at around
37.824 million hectares as of October 16, 2015, slightly down from around 37.967 million
hectares planted during the same time last year.
The USDA Post estimates Indias rice exports in MY 2015-16 (October-September) to decline to
around 9 million tons, about 30% lower than MY 2014-15 due to anticipated lower production
and tighter domestic supplies.
Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $310 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,
down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $90 per ton from a year ago.

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Commercial banks in Pakistan are reportedly unwilling to roll over or reschedule rice sector
loans on a blanket basis. They are ready to accommodate those millers, exporters and farmers
who have genuine difficulties in repaying their loans.
The USDA Post estimates Pakistans MY 2014-15 (November-October) rice exports will remain
unchanged from last years level of around 4 million tons.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago. The Brazilian paddy rice index
maintained by CEPEA reached around 40.32 real per 50 kilograms as of October 12, 2015,
slightly up from around 39.94 real per 50 kilograms recorded on October 5, 2015. In terms of
USD per ton, the index reached around $207.33 per ton on October 12, 2015, slightly down from
around $207.45 per ton recorded on October 5, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has increased
about 9% from about 37 real per 50 kilograms on September 13, 2015. In terms of USD, the
index increased about 7% during the month.
Experts say that the rice industry in Paraguay needs to find new markets for its rice exports in
order to deal with declining productivity and prices; traditionally, the country exports 85% of its
rice crop to Brazil.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $535 per ton,
down about $5 per ton from a week ago and a month ago, and down about $65 per ton from a
year ago.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down
about $35 per ton from a month ago and down about $20 per ton from a year ago.
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery faced a steady decline this week, hitting the
weekly high on Monday at $13.065 per cwt (about $288 per ton) before dropping to a weekly
low of $11.990 per cwt (about $264 per ton) on Thursday. Futures then regained some to finish
the week at $12.140 per cwt (about $268 per ton).
Rice growers in California estimate the 2015 output to decline to around 1.55 million tons, a
decrease of about 8% from 1.68 million tons in 2014.
The USDAs Organic Agriculture Research and Extension Initiative has allocated a grant of
$555,000 to Washington-based The Organic Center to enhance organic rice research and boost
organic rice production in the southern regions of the U.S.

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The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal finalized last week has reportedly ensured that
tariffs on rice imports will eventually be eliminated by the member countries in the next ten
years, according to a statement by the USDA.
Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam and the U.S. have agreed to alter or gradually remove tariffs on rice
imports.
Japan, which has been adamant on increasing duty-free rice imports from the U.S. has agreed to
initially allow 50,000 tons of duty-free rice imports from the U.S. and gradually increase up to
70,000 tons by thirteenth year. Japan will reportedly increase imports from the U.S. by 2,000
tons from the fourth year of the agreement. Japan will also modify its quota administration to
enhance the transparency and effectiveness of the new country specific quota (CSQ). It has also
agreed to immediately eliminate its 36 yen per kilogram (12.7% ad valorem equivalent) tariff on
other animal feeds, containing rice. Malaysia will eliminate tariffs on rice, currently ranging
from 15-40%, in ten years and lock in tariffs on rice products at zero percent. Vietnam will
eliminate its tariffs on rice, which are currently at 40% with immediate effect. It will also
eliminate its tariffs on rice products, currently as high as 35%, in eight years or before. The U.S.
will eliminate tariffs on rice products, currently as high as 11.2%, in zero to 15 years.
Other Markets
The Philippines may import an additional one million tons of rice next year in order to maintain
adequate stocks and avoid price hikes, especially with a strengthening El Nino on the horizon.
Rice stocks in the Philippines declined in September for the fourth consecutive month. Total rice
stocks as of September 1 stood at around 1.96 million tons, down about 12.5% from August and
about 31.5% higher than the same period last year.
The Philippines Statistics Agency estimates the Philippines paddy rice production in the third
quarter (July-September) of 2015 to decline about 14.8% y/y to 2.579 million tons, down from
its previous forecast of 2.589 million tons.
Rice production in South Korea is estimated to increase about 0.4% y/y to 4.258 million tons
due to higher yields. Experts are concerned that increasing supplies and falling consumption in
the country may lead to a decline in prices domestically.
The governments of Nigeria and Brazil have decided to work together to enhance agricultural
research in Nigeria and boost food production and security in the country.
The Federal Government of Nigeria plans to ban rice imports starting in 2017.
Indonesia, which has signed purchase contracts with Vietnam and Thailand to import rice in
case of a need, will decide about the imports in November or December.

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Japan's feed-rice output in 2015 is likely to reach around 420,000 tons, more than double of
around 187,000 tons in 2014
Paddy rice prices in Italy increased sharply in the second week of October; however, prices are
lower than in past years.

Thailand, India Rice Sellers Alter Some of

Their Quotes Today; Other Asian Quotes
Remain Unchanged
Oct 16, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for fragrant A1 Super rice variety by about $5 per ton
to around $350 - $360 per ton. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% and 100% rice
varieties by about $5 per ton and $10 per ton respectively to $350 - $360 per ton and $290 $300 per ton. They increased their quotes for 25% broken rice variety by about $10 per ton
around $325 - $335 per ton. Other Asian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton about $5 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $350
- $360 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $305 - $315 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about 5% discount on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $335- $345 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $325 - $335
per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $335- $345 per ton, about $70 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last
shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, at par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at

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around $290 - $300 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown
at around $275 - $285 per ton.

USDA Forecasts 2015-16 Global Rice

Production to Decline on Lower Acreage and
Yields
Oct 16, 2015

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In its October 2015 Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice production
(milled basis) at around 474 million tons, down about 1% from last year due to an expected
decline in acreage as well as decline in average yields, which are likely to be affected by adverse
weather conditions. USDA's projection is down from last month's projection of around 475.8
million tons. Southeast Asia, North Africa, and North America account for most of the expected
global rice production decline in 2015-16.
USDA lowered 2015-16 production prospects for Thailand, India and the U.S. However, it raised
production forecasts for Tanzania, Madagascar and Kenya.
USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage at 159.2 million hectares, down from an estimated
160.2 million hectares in 2014-15. Thailand is accounting for more than half of the decline, says
USDA. While acreage in Bangladesh and India is expected to increase, that in Myanmar,
Cambodia, Nigeria and the U.S is expected to decline. USDA forecasts the average global yield
at 4.44 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), slightly down from 4.46 tons per hectare in 201415.
USDA estimates 2015-16 global rice consumption and residual use at around 487.5 million
tons, up about 1% from last year, and slightly up from last month's forecast of around 487.4
million tons. China is accounting for more than half the projected increase in global rice
consumption in 2015-16, according to the USDA. It forecasts consumption to increase
in Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam. On the other hand, it forecasts consumption to decline in South Korea
and the U.S.
The U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 global rice ending stocks to decline by about 13% y/y to around 88.3
million tons, and down from last month's forecast of around 90.2 million tons. China, India, Pakistan,
Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam account for the bulk of the projected decline in global ending
stocks in 2015-16. USDA estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.1%, down from last year's
21%.

Global Rice Quotes

October 19th, 2015
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 365-375

Vietnam 5% broken

365-375

India 5% broken

350-360

Pakistan 5% broken

305-315

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Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

Cambodia 5% broken

415-425

U.S. 4% broken

490-510

Uruguay 5% broken

535-545

Argentina 5% broken

530-540

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken

330-340

Vietnam 25% broken

345-355

Pakistan 25% broken

280-290

Cambodia 25% broken 400-410

India 25% broken

330-340

U.S. 15% broken

500-510

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

365-375

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

405-415
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

590-610

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

545-555

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
820-830

Vietnam Jasmine
475-485

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super
305-315

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

275-285

Cambodia A1 Super
355-365

India 100% broken stxd

290-300

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ

U.S. pet food 330-340

Brazil half grain

NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

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