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Rustam Jamilov
State Committee of Securities
Capital Markets Training Center
jamilovrustam@gmail.com
April 9, 2015
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Table of Contents
Concepts
Valuation
Making Money
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Fixed Income
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Global fixed income market size in 2010 surpassed $150 trillion. The figure is closer to $200 trillion today.
This includes both pure loans and bond-style public/financial securities.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Bonds as Debt/Asset
Liability
Asset
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Fixed Income
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Issuers of Bonds
Local governments
Supranational entities
Companies
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Fixed Income
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Bond Maturity
The maturity date of a bond is the date on which the principal value is to
be repaid. For example, if a government issues a 10-year bond worth $1
billion USD, then exactly 10 years from now the principal value of $1
billion USD must be repaid in full amount.
Bonds that have no maturity are called perpetual bonds.
Bonds with maturities of one year or less are referred to as money market
securities.
Bonds with maturities of more than one year are capital market securities.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Par Value
Principal value, or par value, of a bond is the amount that the issuer
agrees to repay the bondholders on the maturity date. For example,
assume the principal of a bond is $1000. If the bond is currently priced at
$1000 then we say it is at par. Above par - bond is trading at a premium.
Below par - at a discount. Par value could be any amount.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Coupon Rates
Plain Vanilla (Fixed)
A plain vanilla bond pays a predetermined fixed rate of interest. This rate
can be paid annually/quarterly/monthly. For example, annual coupon rate
of 6% for a $1000 par value bond is $60.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Coupon Rates 2
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Coupon Rates 3
Index-Linked Bonds
An index-linked bond pays its principal and coupon payments linked to a
specified index. The most popular type of indexed bonds is
inflation-linked. They provide protection against rising prices. For
example, the United Kingdom issues an 1.5% 10-year inflation-protected
bond. Inflation rate in the UK is 2%. If this bond was plain vanilla, then
the investor holding the bond would only earn negative 0.5% of real
interest. In general, the real rate of return is what we care about because
real purchasing power is our main goal.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Currency Denomination
Bonds can be issued in any currency, although most bonds are issued in
either USD or EUR - these 2 are called hard currency. Any government,
corporation, agency can in principle issue bonds in USD or EUR. It makes
issuance easier, even if your local currency is not USD or EUR. Many
agents issue bonds in local currencies (GBP, JPY, KRW, TRY, RUB) to
finance expenditures in the local market. Demand for local currencies
varies across markets and on a cyclical basis.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Here we see bonds of different issuers, prices (bid and ask), yields (to be discussed further), and
historical performance.
Values swing dramatically over time; markets have high volatility and tens of millions worth of
sovereign debt move around every hour.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
13 / 31
Bonds denominated in local currencies have billions in size. When deciding to purchase a bond
in a foreign (non-USD or non-EUR) currency, one must carefully study the FOREX market.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Table of Contents
Concepts
Valuation
Making Money
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Definition
A dollar invested today is not the same as the dollar invested tomorrow.
You can earn interest i on 1 dollar invested today, and tomorrow your
wealth becomes 1$+i. The value of money grows over time. The skill of
finance is to develop and price instruments whose value grows over time.
The art of finance is knowing which instrument to buy/sell and at what
moment.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Formula
Present Value =
Future Value
(1 + i)t
where i is the market discount rate, aka required yield of the bond
t is the maturity length of the bond.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Example
Lets price a zero-coupon bond with maturity 7 years, paying $1000 at
maturity, and the required rate of return 5%.
Price =
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1000
= 710.68
(1 + 0.05)7
Fixed Income
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Formula 2
Present Value =
t
X
Coupon
k=1
(1 + i)k
Future Value
(1 + i)t
where i is the market discount rate, aka required yield of the bond
t is the maturity length of the bond k is the current time period
Do not forget to add the future value to the stream of coupons!
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Example
The same bond with maturity 7 years, paying $1000 at maturity, and the required rate of return
5%, is now paying annual coupons of $20. The price is now:
Price =
20
20
20
20
20
+
+
+
+
+
2
3
4
(1 + 0.05) (1 + 0.05) (1 + 0.05) (1 + 0.05) (1 + 0.05)5
+
20
20
1000
+
+
= 826.41
6
7
(1 + 0.05)
(1 + 0.05)
(1 + 0.05)7
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Yield to Maturity
The problem can be solved in reversed order. If we have a known market
price for a bond, we can calculate its yield to maturity. YTM is the implied
market discount rate which makes the future discounted cash flows equal
to the todays market price. Market players may speculate on the price of
the bond, and the YTM will respond to price fluctuations. Suppose, a
4-year bond with 5% annual coupon payment is priced by traders at 105
per the par value of 100. The YTM can be solved numerically from:
105 =
5
5
5
100
5
+
+
+
+
(1 + i) (1 + i)2 (1 + i)3 (1 + i)4 (1 + i)4
Which gives i=3.634%. Notice how the yield is lower than the coupon rate,
which is normal for bonds priced above par. Also, negative relationship
between asset prices and yields is one of the major laws in finance.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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In the previous examples, we made a big assumption that drove the result.
We assumed that the required return is constant until bond maturity. A
more fundamental approach is to discount every cash flow using its spot
rate, i.e. the actual interest rate observed at the period. Spot rates are
not necessarily equal to assumed constant yields. This can generate
pricing distortions across the two approaches. For example, consider that
the one-year spot rate is 2%, 2-year is 3%, and 3-year is 4%. Coupon is
5%. Pricing is:
Price =
5
5
5
5
+
+
+
= 102.960
(1 + 0.02) (1 + 0.03)2 (1 + 0.04)3 (1 + 0.04)3
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
22 / 31
This is a 5-year corporate bond. Issuer is IBM. Coupon rate is 1.875%. Yield to maturity is
0.53%. Current market price is $107.4. Bond is priced above par. Currency of denomination is
EUR. Yes, interest rates (yields) are very low in Europe nowadays . . .
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Table of Contents
Concepts
Valuation
Making Money
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Yields Differential
There are plenty of reasons why yields on any two bonds are different. The
major drivers causing yield differentials include:
1
Currency
Credit risk
Liquidity
Tax Status
Periodicity
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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This is the term structure for US Treasuries. Notice the 40bps drop in 10-year treasuries, just over the past 6 months . . .
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Fixed Income
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Forecasting Yields
Bond prices and yields are negatively related. When interest rates go
down, prices go up. If you can predict the right moment of the rate drop you can position yourself for the event by buying lots of the asset and then
selling it after interest rates fall. The market generally has a very good
understanding of which way the interest rates will go. Usually, even a
slight 5bps move (0.05%) can make a big difference. E.g.: multiply 0.05
by a $100 million investment and get $5 million in profit.
The best way to get an idea of future interest rate movement is the
forward rate matrix. Forward rate is the future yield on a bond calculated
using the yield curve. For example, the yield on a 3-month Treasury bill six
months from now is a 6-month - 3-month forward rate. By pricing a
forward rate for every maturity we construct a forward curve.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Forward Curve
As of today, the spot 10-year rate is 1.95%. In 1 year, the expectation is that the 10-year becomes 2.2%. Most financial
contracts will be signed using this as a benchmark of expectations. BUT, if the future 10-year rate one year from now will in
fact be 2.0% (different from the forward rate), you can capture a profit by correctly positioning yourself on the curve. This is
how millions are made (or lost).
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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Relative Value
This is the spread of a 5-year Deutsche-Telecom bond over the 5-year German Bund. Spread has been narrowing greatly for the
past 2 years.
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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CMTC Trainings
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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CMTC Trainings
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Fixed Income
Baku, 2015
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