A Simple View of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence and its Implication for the Rule of Combination

Lotfi A. Zadeh

Tho:! ~!neL'geL101! of @!p!.lr~ ~y~~~m; ~ t'l~" (>f U!",j,,,j~r ~. ~aJ; a([ oct~~i~y wiJtlli~ AI h,IL~[\'o<,)It..;d ij, ~ ~~pJJ ~w~h e>f int.I!<l"~~ witlli~ tiL<.: .u OI.";~I:'lu~~lt~' ~n IHH~w.!I ~~b~iJI!l to tJ~e nmJi~em-e[lt ~1 ~;l-r.i~i)t~iI:,~y ~tjd €!~iI!li'!llt;i81 ri!'.!ilio!l.ing, Durius t~,e p~_"t two Yi!oUH_ ~B pRl'lk,ull!r. ~be DEiD~~t!!<l"-SbafB.r ~t"'Qrj of Eowldf!Il.~ has attrR~t~d ·~a-lllS.icll!:r~~k gt,t~.litjOIL .iL'5 8. p~i:ltujYiUIl" metnoo ",t !:h!'<-.1img; wi:tll.~~mi' .~f ~b" l'l'l-'io": prot.~i!'m;l arising ill 1)8~[lhi~~ltiolL o:f e~W,,,~"~ and ,1~t.<I. f~t;llm;_ Th d!!"'illk;.p· ~n <Kt~q'm~" l,j"l"'1.~t~;loliIJg oE t~i~ tJi~ory rBq1.iIim~ {lon~clt.r~bl~ ~MorL ~!~i "gAmd iJ.Rik.gro~!I!:1 in probaIlilitr, the.:wy. There i~_ IN:l\\l"('o;'oI!r _ a simpkl '!O'&y 8f "Pproa<:ilL;,c,g L~e Dmtp~t.i!r·-SL1BifB:r ~b=y ~b~t olLly l'l.:(I:ui= <L !";'~ intil. fBmm~r.it,y wi.tll N.:U;It.i~n1Il u~)l"kh (>f '.hd~.F,,, someOHB ';!lith a b~(~ol1~d lu iIJ ~r .]~~':hl!Lq~ m~IUI.~·~Hl.i!llt. this ap1V~b ~1!iI3 t-he ~I~h;j;,;t~ of oolii:t.jll:.gin ,R DstUlail W<J,]I' br.l 'tl~ f:1"",a" .. f'iI.I;-';~\\'Ci:k or AI ~nd da~b3tSl!!!, Furt-h~,l(>c<). j~ d~~ijje~ some' of the ,~oRtEl'!eL'S.i.~i~ues in tn~ [)emp<;te'r-Sba~ef tJ~ern-y gm.L poiuts bo "'~.~ in w ~dt::!1. ,~ ean be i!'Jct.eooedi 81M UL1iii(L1' uacr~uL lit A["!Jrj~[j~ed :a.:~~lic~tlijI;~_1

Tlhe IBa~iiC Idl;!81

Tbe b!M;i'C idea lJIo.d:~lyilJg the <!.pp;nj~dL kl. q~e~tOQol,; tltat in ili8 oo.ot1l);)t of re~tjonal dM~~ ~M Dempster-SbsfBr t.h.emy ~;a,n be ~iev<ed as f!.!l iD~~~~ee of infel'ol!l1.IlI! from sscend-erder [e:iMions, tJ~M l~l'oI!!a~iaru ill whiicb.t.hB ant.r'~ M~ ~'.<)l'r;l;!~ ~lat!o~B. ~ Th ,c<18rify tl1!is paiilt, leb

Et .• ~ 39-~ b"j ~!>~ N.ASA G7, ... t NCC.'<l.'<l~~ N~C C..,l.= NOOO~"'_84-C-(;SIla, and :N~ GmOJl"llS"TolldK!418.

I'T~ "PJI",ocl! d=:o:ibo<! :il> ~"" _'iclo ia iLQ,,>io!<I fl'Qno th~ ~.(>JlLl,.o.tOOB of ~ •• '">.'.I't. ~f ~il>ilL1.)· ~i~(lolt~!<iif!tf {<;t<' no .... I"1) ..,

- lid HOil ~"1!p~Sluro" ..oocl o>f UJI .. ,'

~~~I"i~1,!ii: t~rn.r;:]'jtl of tile '-001Dt]lZ M<I, _~:ty .~. ~.I. "Pl'll •• jlcn to """' ...... Ifirollil iDMrnJjlleW ~~~"._ <;>on. ~.fbu,,~i~ r,oo=II"",,,,,," b)! D",btii. ,.nd P,;o.il~ (1~2, lOO->l)-

~r .. she e""m.;o.dI<'gY .«1 ,"lo;~i""o.i d.~i;ObooM, ~.~offi~~ ~tl,," &iJ

DB first COBSldex 8 ~t8Jlidm-d ex";[JlI~k of retri~ bY!. ,a fir.st-or-<krroslat.'i.:-n. such (>,S ~be~l.;j;tij')" EMPLOYEEl (or .I!iMPI. rUt ~~rt-) t.hMi~ Ul.iI;>~!at.oed .1l1I Ul'" foilGMn,g:

lEMPl Nmnq hIP

1 23
2 U
3 2l
~ 27
5 g~ As a POiM (jIf departuea, cOrusld!!!r a ~p!le, ~~I!!

M a ran,g>!! qlJ.eI'Y: WIJ,a;~ fractia-n at e:rnployGes <l'[~ '00- tween 20 and 21} :i'!!8.m~ 01:1. iDclusivcly? In ot.ht>r~,

AbS'l:r,a.ct,

Durlng t.he pEilli '~~ '. JoIIiBilil!, tb.~ [)~m:pst~r~rt~oot'Y of evid~~.ee M!! fIott-lat:ted ooru;i'dl&r@Lic ~t~rnQwj~qg ~~ ,'lo,l 00011, rnu:ndi!.y &9 & I'oom:i5~ IJWtMa on de~1ng with~lIO;>.rt;""-'1Ii,;. 0);Pel~ ~~temB, A5D~~di". ~b. i;l.eJ:",tuoO, ~~" lhe:lry it ~ to :m~tar. ]rl ~ >$jmpte app"'""",, tllii..t I!l <l~Ii~~~d .. in thls ~DQf. ~!i!c ~P'!'t.<o:.~.r !.hett.,Y ~ofi e ..-.d .ill taLe ~a~te1':.~ ~r .~~i<m"l d",t1l!b." •• "" ~b", ~~lo.~ Qr b1JllJ~EiIl' rEltm~aI t~~b"iqu~ ld ~1t1!:l.-~rJ:~r ~~l!!ItjOJlB, that 1.;" fBL:it!jon& 1m whlo:!h til. data @:fitrj,e,J are rellilitlimJ; In fir.!.ot :oor.rn.:a! klIm, '['n~ rcl!l.tooliaL ~.I.ewp<)~l!it ilar:l~.es rome of thi~ o:lOOltOO"Y1:r'liai j~=·in·~ D'!iil"ipiI~-Sl:iafer tileot'Y and JiI.Ci~~~ it<!, ~~i~. A[.<lr'.e;Wed ~p~le'St.l .. Il>S.

.I;L ~l~rJj w:h~ Is, in '1iL~ lIN.I1l~l :tfullil. ~;M ~I ~ rQ!;:~MQ·I'i, W~iiI 'F.i·l.Jin~t~ IU'(! ntomi_.:~ [i!:1iw tl;:h.&:o. r~t.-'fliJjj.ed,

674

what frB!:;~iDn or ,~plor~ S~~ t~~ ~!OOKImDEI Age (i). Q, i ' .. 1," .• ,5, where Q ls ~1le qi,IEry get Q' = [lllll,2B]I. CountilBg~~ i~ whicl'l Sa4i4y the oondi~lioE, the ~.r is 2(5..

Next. ~.~ '~~=-e tll~t tile &goa of ~ is, mot knoWll wi,tJli CGrt.iJjn~y. f'<l:r exarnpl\!!, the II@II (if 1 mish't, ))~ kMwln 00 b~ in the iii.t~~1 [22,26J. In t,his case, tJl~ EMF! lEilti.tion becomes ~ ~cOEd-D.l'd~ Id1litJt)l'I,.oo.r examp'le;:

EMP2, NEIIJ!LEj Ag~

1 [22,26]

2 [lQ,~l]
3 [,w,2iij
d, [~,221
~ [~.:wJ 'I"lms, ill tlt~ CB.5B ,or 1, f(!J cXillill!pI~ the iiltm~t-~a;~cu~ aUrio,1J!tiI 122, 26] m= t!~~~ ~~-e flBe of ~, l~ kM ..... r1 to, 'iJ<! 8JI e.l~iII.eI1,~ Oil' ~be ~~ {22,~, 2~, 2~, 26}" 111 e-nect, tbiB seb i:s tho! Bo!~ II([ PQ!I!Ilbli! ",aJ,ne& of the Y'a.riable A~(lj, or, eqw?i,\f3~!1Jtl:i', tba plM~i~it;v &~trit."tiDn ot A:g4:(1)" Vl~woo in t;bi!l~r~pI!!:iI.ivB, the alil~a '!lJjit.ri~ in tb,~ ,tOilll1illli labeled ~ aN the PoWhmty distribuH0JiS (>ftlie \\~~ueol' of A~ec 8ii1::Bihrly; ~ne '<i!1J!ed' s~ Q = ~c ~~~!!,ard!ed as a POggib~b' .;!i~'Icl!~buMoO:D_ hE t!1ia aieriSe, ~be informe.tJon 1'i!3i~nt lrl the da.taba;se and viti! quBI'i.esBlb(}lJl~ u~ ~&J! DE di!!Scriboo, &1;, ,lIftmUr<l'f {Z8dsh, 1919a, ]1).81), with th~ d\ilita MHI tne queries p'll!l,)'ircg; tlm roles of gm~ll:~

Whim ilia, gttribut~yall.l~ <IU DO~ kno""n w j~h eertainty, ~~tl:! M~~ melmklship ~~a,. ~ A;sen) ~ Q cease to, be M:>:Dllot~bole. rn .pJ~ce of such ~eMstllell, !~ !s !HIi~ural to> ()cm~id~~ tbe;tt<)~\ri,ljjMy or Q given tbe po2i,b~lilly ,djgl;ritll!lt~on ,of A&>!!(~1. F.o:r example, if Q = ~20, 25) and Ag~{l) ~ 122, 26l, it is ~~l~ tlN!.t Age(l) ~ Q.iLn th~ CIISI! of a, i.t is ~Ot po!I~~I~ tlila.t A!l:e(J) ~ QiBlo.d in thl! CBaII c!:I'4, it is coi!rlam (~r ~GG~srof];) tlill~ .A~,B( 4.) e Q, mere g~1I!lral~; (~) Ag.c{i)~Q.is ~&Ig. if tlu!~sih'ili~y distribu~ro:D. of

A~(i) ~ers(;,;)b$ Q, ~iw;~ ls, D~ fI Q #- e where D~ dtri,<)ires ~he ~Qill~l di~~rlbu'tjofl cl Ase(J) (\l~ €l is, t!u! &l'Jp'W 5e~.

(I:» Q 1s (lcri!l'l;~ (OT n~llry) if t~ pos~ihm~y d:isb~hu" tiot) (11.1' .'!"~e(i) is oo:o~iiJID.ed iii .0., th~~ is. D, L. Q.

(~) Q Is 'r~1 ~ssl!1~c j[ ~b£ pO!lSlbi~l:y d~tlibu.~ion. of A~~(i) dim nc~ h1i~e~~t Qo.r, eqjlli~entJy. h oonW:.inedI .irc, the oompJemtm W Q .. llis irtWllestllal.-M III rMdal lo~~-possibility 2nd net)f!S!l~~Y' fl.1:'!e relat~ by

In. the ca..se af ~:i, ~Iiu: <>pplreEitiDn of thesE fies.ts to eac~ruw of t~~1 nl!a:tJOO'I yi.e:l& to;;: fnHD'\'f.ing: le8td~ ior Q =1\lO,2~1;

86

EMP2 NaliD~ hit' ~~
[22,26] p=
2 [20,~2] oer~
J l3ru\3~] ~ p=
4 1'2~22} OI!~t
~ [:Ja,30]1 .., p~ (In the Tes~ to!IC!.n¥~, p<l<lS, cer~, Md ~ llQS~, .~ ~b-, bl'evlf!JtloO!S ~ ~i,l;!LI!, c.main, ~nd~9t possibls, :!'e9[r1'1!c,~ tJ.vely .. )

'W~ are D!JIi\' ill a :posmoo oooonst.:rud s ~UilfD,gRtil aaswer tD tile ori.giioai questJ!lln: What iradjon of '-pt~1]($ &ill betwEGI!l 20 gild 25 yeM~. (IIld, incllW~7 CI~~, ~ll.e amwcr\l!in Ml'ti M be i~, two p(!;rts, oae relMiu:J~ to 'the cerW:mty (w M=it,y) M Q ~J t!~ o)t.bt:\t to its, llO~s~bim~!l'; .,~ ~y,,,,goJs::

(1)

.,.,ru:r~ R~p('Q)., N(Q},. and ]l(Q) d~obe,~s,~c.thtly, &be m.lX!'ID<:: 00 .0, t~ (leda.ia:i~y ((>l: lIf>Ce5siM of Q.,. an.;! ~b~ ~t<il;~y .;if Q. FQ~' ~be e~:(=p!e ~ncle? 0o.~BideHLtiDn. ,cQ,uru;rng tJtoe test l'I!9WJtB Un. BMP2 ~eads to the rl!!!ipaThSll!~ .

with the understanding thsi~ CBFi counts also as [UJlrS 00- 0Ul'!l o~tailiJty impm~ p05.li~bmty. .Ihsie:illly, <:! tWO"piLrt r'eSpgn~ m tJJi~ furm, tl~t ~, {l~,lainl~ a M~ p.I!'l'm>~ p, ""tt.e.~ (;)j .;l.!ld IJ. ~~ ~l,)~9L~~~ Or' ~eil~t~~ <)OliLm~ of ol:>ket~, ..... ~'n a S]ledfl.oo, ]l~opoerW, la ~~aract~sUc cl ~e~Mnse~ ~. 00 . .i.nl:t)mp]e~e irlforrtl3!ti!lj(il; ·Eof ,e~p!e, cer!~j;]J'-~ HI$ ~m,d p.o~~W 9tJ$ iD. l't!9pD~ge t(>: HDVl' man.:!, D.oruei10Jdls len P3ILO Al~o Q'"m & VCR?

"Ji'ilil ·ffirn cons~iitl.li!M, in Resp(C)} ~ wbat is IBfimed tc! i:;S Ut~ measure 01 ~~liilll the Dcmp5~r-8b<!lf~" tn<lory, and ~b~ MOO:IJ!:Ii oomstjhu:mi is th~ measure of p!iIwj\l;ilitll. Sllt.m. bm. ~~;s,pt~sp<)e~,ve tJ;,~" *~""~1JIl'C~ m bcli(:f ~pJ~s.i" b:int.y ttl. ~!oe Deffip~~;c.Sb4f!O: U~O'Y fl"e, ~e.;LFeo;~t~ly, ,th~ Ce:rt.aillt,y (c.r~~e;.s'it}'} ~~t;I pClSStbiHt:)' 04:·t.b~ q~~ ~e1 Q' ~D. the oon~t af lII!tr,Loe\\&lfrom ~, ~:eo;o~4o~oe? r.el3it,iQIll in \lIhiieb. tIN!' d!lIit.ll ent.ries &1epoooaibility dj~tri,bu~ioMc

Ti1el'l!' flJ:8 t"';\D il!Dportant obge:tW~i!OO1S t:bl!tt CiIJ! be, m~ at thia peint, F.iirst, llaul!Da tlilat EMP is .Ii. EelS, Uoo. in which tilro vat1rm:5 of Age IIiDII siml1~a!1S ehaa!1ll from ~lte p(lSslb'm~y ~t.rlbut_ in EMP2~ lYbr such II.ro!lIMiioo" ~be teS.pMSe to Q' would be ~oMl1ib(!I, ~~. iJpba.. 1'hoo:o,Ut, is ~",jdlel1!t 'tJ-,a~ ~be \\ilL,,~ ~f N(Q} ~ IJ:(Q) o!>t.;'Limi! :f<:'.r Q {th!&.t LSi 2/" and 3/~» 3!f\e tlli, l<l~~ ~. ~ppo!:i' OOl<nd~" l'egpi!CitJ.vely, an the '';\&,lues of alpha, Thil~ e~pLaiIt8 w!J.y lin. the [)@rnpster-S'bafe:rtJli!o!J' the measures ,or be:lid and plaillsi.bHlt;r &1'8 ~I!i!;elp:reb!!d'i Iespedi'O'ely, as tlw! ~ and 1W"l~ pr~oojlttj&l of Q.

{:l,1(1, Se<lected Papers by Loltii .A. Zadeh

Second, beeauae the valWS!! of .N(Q) :."d ll(Q) repro- 81!!nt, the result of <lVl1I:agimg of teat resuDts In ElYl1'2:, wh~ rn_U@"S IS U~ dirlri~'Ulilm af !;eat reB1!l1~9 ,IlIDd not 'tJ;eir ~l~tl(ffl wi~l\. p(lIrtJ.eui,"" I!'mpl.O;i't!Ba V[e'Niing th.ig, dli£~?i.bl!l:tiQn as " ~wm<l:l\!l!ry of EMP2. this implies that N(Q} snd I1(Q) ~e I:1!ImIM1:t8!bl\e fi:um ~ ~1IIiDJlil£l[y of E::lYlP2 wliLicll ~c1i'i.es tile fiaati.oo of e,rtlp~ whose ~~ (<Ill in ~!lmh ,(If Uoo u[l~e1:\'IIl-val.ued. entries in the A~ ooh~rnn_

. 1Yl:o:re Sp!l~alIy, assume tl!1at 'in a gemw sett,ln,g EMF2 has :0, ro.,.\5, ·w.ut:b. tlu! 8Ill~ry in faW i,1 = 1, _ . _ , 'n, I:!!m!:!" Ag~ ·b<.:ilJiI D,. Fu:rth8IliOOI"l3, asaume toot the Dj ,are CQl'tIl'xr.i~~ of k ,g,i~t~m::~ :5«~ Ah •••• AK so tbs.t (a) eac:h D Is ,orte or tche A., ~ = 1, , • _ ,t. Fer example, ill the C38t!' of :EMP2,

n ~' 5,~ :t 4
Ii!. 122.16] A! [22,26]
D2 120,n1 A~ ... [20,22]
Da 130..'i5] k [:lo,3~]
D 121.l,~j At [28.3D]
4,
D" ~2.E,JOj Vill:Wing EMP2 as <l ptlr£::rit ~da~ion, it.s Bum:ID9/l'~ C.9:O. be ,e~~dI es (!I g:n:m:u~r d~lril!-tdwn, a, of ~h~ form

t:. = n"h, pd. {A~.~), •..• (A~,PI.)},

ill wllie!!. P •• a = 1, ' __ ~/ls the .f'<fJ.e~ic'" of D'~ tl~~t ;lor<; .{,. 1'008, in tJite case ()f EM1>2; W"!! have

C. =([[22. 'Uj, lIS)., .[ [\l0, 22], 2/S}, U!30,Jli], 1!~,), (l28, 3lI]. II.})}.

. .o'I.s :i.B, f;ruB af 8np1lJmm3!r~, a gr~num ilis*rJbl!l·tj~n ean h.a.ve a mUJl.tip]icii;y oJ ptl..T.tmts" bec~l!IE.e 6. Is l'n'>'fll'~a~t Ul1dJe. P!JUllIItEltio:lls of tih.!l ~'.aJ.u.~ af t-rame'. At a .tatl!(!' point., ''11(0 see '~hat ~hth olillieI"'jtI,~itm haa an important. b~.B..limg on tit.!! ~CIL!!ed DernJ;l!'ft.o'!r-5halex rule of comb:ina~lon of e'O'ide.IlOt!.

In ~\lt1lmMY, s:i"~ ~ qll!e:fy ~, Q. tm: reSpOnse to Q ~ two, oompo:ne.nts, N(Q} ~d D(Q}. In krm8 of tire ~lmItJlU distrilmtioll Ll., N(q) and. I1tQ') ean 'be e>epresset:l iII&

1II"(Q) • LP'" BlI.'Ch that (AI. C Q, s = 1, .. _., k) I1(Q} = I::»o $'UcIJJ tili.M {A.., n Q '#0 9,5. 1, •.• , IL) (3)

'''r1Le ,':I.w...-. .""nn p •• __ , p ........ _ "to .. tfu e . w,;, JI'1"r..!..:~t~ .... IDlI.,.. ill tILe ~sm.sEH<'" t~.

ThI!HI·expr-essioo5 fur the nf!=it~ and ~biiliey or Q <Ire idantreal witn the ~xprl!eHiQIlE for belief lIJnd pl!a.i,ls'biDit}' jilJj ~Itt.e Dcmpsttu"-Shal'er thl!Or>, .

ThE' 8aU-BIiJ~ Ana!qID'

Th8 ralstioaal model of the' Di!mpsteJ'-S!bar... ~b.et<1;)' b~ ~. ~impk illl~rP'l~t<ltioll ill tarma of wmt miih.t be ~~I!l.ed the ~~~~~;t ~n~!i'll"

Sped~eall~', a!l~Ul'll~ ~hat, as ~OWII ill F.igun I, '!ro have !'iI. umnarked stael balls W'b~d"l ;'I~ dist<rihuti:ld _g k bnxes A·L, •••.• A~, wi¢h.Pl reprl!<le,,~",;l!' tilie fJ~~!o" Q~ balls put in Ai. The boxes are placed If" . a ~ U &ltd. Me <Il1iowOO to QV4!rbp. The p05i.tioll of ~b bBU within the bOA in wlillili it is plu.Goo is WlSpt!cifiedi. In this medel, the ~1)In\lko.r dls'tributlon ilo, describes tIN d:istrIDu~.io.ll 'Qf tile bAlls ,!>mOll!!: the bQ:t!l$. (N')~ tJJ~lJie Ii!I.J_m~1t of b;;m!ll'l,It ill A. .• j~ unrelated to thM put IT.l . ..41- Thus, if A,; C AI,., the nlllIlber Gf balls put in A, caD be BargEl'J? tbsim. tibe II~ of ba.Th; put in Aj. It la impGrlam to' diHmnti~~lJ,ctwtllln ~I\.e number of biUb put in A,;; 11M ~be, ~umb~r of 00lli !~. At;- 'F~ need for dill'e=~~~tja[l ~iBea b~sl!L!le the' A, rui~M w~l~.p<, 31cdi the bolmdll!I'::;" GI i!aclJ oo;!;: is PE!l!lBtIs.bte. ~i!pt tlt.at a halt put ill A, i~ ~o~~d 00 ~eay ill. A;.)~

No'il!, gt"f':m. ~ ~eeJio" Q kl U, we Cil.T.I ~ ~ ,qucstion:

Efuw· ~~ b~1!s are in Q? To sim.pllf}' vl~ooJlta·tioll, WB .=me tllat, S!I in FJg'Wl'!! 1. tbe 'boxes es well as Q <lie .N!atanglliar.

BIl'CBi~~ tibeirnil'NI!llMK([l rn.gBil1iliD~ tJie P'l'lUk>Jl (l\f,~h ball is i_.I?~e4e, the _er to the 'q.utS~~n mH, in g.eneral, be inte:tval-"3.11.1ed. The tlppe< bOll'Eid! ean reailH.:I' be ff:>1,~<:Il)y ~!:s~~i;!'r'ig Q ~~ ~~ ~tW!i.:,tor, fDr exlll~. EI- ElIII.gl'!Ji!>t_ U:~der tb£S =llro!p~kt:rI, :Lt lB evident thEII~ the paoport~on of ~ d!l'al~'I1 .inW ,q .is giV€lIl by

.);:= ~, .. ,_ ~k~

whie!"!. 'Is ~~~ ~!l:ptl!!99ion lQF pl~l5i.I;.:ili~y in ~b.e DempsterSh.&fer theory, SimilBrly. ~he IO~f 'OOuM =~~ from "'~ sualizing Q <IS ar~eUer .. In t~.i~ case, ~1J.;e la.we1 bO<l!~d is giV8l!J. by

N(Q'} = .L.P.,

whidit (loif~clde9 with ~be ~xp~~km fur belief In the Demp9C£;r-SbafeI tbeory. Noee, tilat making Q an attesetor i!I equ:ivahnt to making Q' (the ~mnplemaDt of Q}R llEpalleor. From litis, l' M~li <lot llil.cc tbat

[I(Q) = 1 - N(Q'}.

w!biih !has rur'~ ~eJiI dti!d ~ OM oJ the ba.-;ic idll!],tities in ,t],~ Del1l,p$~e.·Sb;;:rert.hIXl-Q·'

'rt!le bMl-b(>lo; (!;fi~OI!J' h~ the mdVElnt~ ail providing ~, plc:t4.t1~l'--AThd., ~Ims, e(l;Sy w gr,a.sp-ir:werproet.ation (jf ~be Dern!plIt<!r-S];,a;f:i!r model. As 3. ~Imple muMr~tl<)ll m Lt,s use, COns.idBI tb.e fulkovoiilTlJl problem, There are 20 emrp.]qvees in ~. dBpartm'£mi •. Fh'B allil bIJay;on to be under 20, 3 are kDffi'ln bco be over 41~ ~.~bc [J:St a1T~' b.OWLl. te b~ b8tWBeD 2~ and ~~, HQiPi lI"tallly are ow.:r 30? 'lib.il ooswo;:r .iliE>t il; ;ricld'£D. I[~ ,cmfle I;.y ~be (ii~f<il~e:! is ~e4....e~ s and. 1~,

'T,ne, 1~!i'Sue of ~onma'li~atlo!!

A ~orrt-w"o,et";ll~ isslle inthe D~p5t.1lr-Sb~N tMoryrelate.> to ~be ntm"ITIb311zatlon of ~;p.,er and ]o""~I4Obv.b-5llt.i13:5 and its role in the DeTII1Ipate;t.Sit3:r.erc~'e of OI)<mb,~~t;on m evidence.

Th view titiG. issue t-~ ~he C<YJlt.ed ()~ te1a.ti~l'IIiIl d1ltit.~ assume that t~ ~tt~ooW tfj,b~lMed .!liLJle EMP2 r~atiOE is oot the emp~'~ ~-e buttoJ;e i!J# cof t-l!!~, efl1lploYOC~'G~, Age(Om(iH, i = 1 •. _ . ,5, with ~b.e t"~' d8l':!lta!~tl.L"1l" tll.i!t Age(Oaa:(i)) ,;" 0 means tha ,= is .~ n~ and tb~t ~(Ca.r(i)) _ ®, .... 'M[II! e iG. the E;!tI!pty ,9i!1 {or, ~qui.1lI!iIJl!ndjl, ~ mill!ll V3!1ud means i does oot h.ave a car, FOr oallveJ!!ienee hl r,eft~m)(:;~n Mtr.ibu~ is GElid to be tiifi"'i!~ if 1t ~OO.t ta~e ~, ~un ~11,l~ ~d. i'!dI1i'T!it~ if it c;m.l!!it.heg~ =mpms, A~a is deliiwt~, ""~~;!I_q AII~ (C~} ~!'!.0t.

'1m: qUllGtbi!m tb~~r.~-s is: How 9~.ouid~be ~u!l 'values De ololi!1iltGd1 QuS!ltil1~ of ~bfiG tYj)~ arise, £ie-Di!r~ny, wlle<!} t;b.er.efete!l~ in e. propas;~ioooo.aG not (lXiBt. In toe ~b!!Qry 01' ~esupp(Il;1tiallS, m e-:tao·~.])k,,,, Ci\:!lE in po'illl~ jig the

propo~HJoo "The [(i:mg of i!r~ is belid," with. thE! qIlBG~I~ b>e!)r.Jg: WI1¥~ !st.het.xu~h~ oJ this propo«;1tm. if ~be King of Fra"DJ5I! does not e>:lS~? Ck>:le:r to AI. ~mitru: issues III~B~ in tb.e .Iiterawre on ,c.~"i:fLtl .. e, ~po~ .t<) d8.tebsss 'qllBr~ POOlii, 19S2;Ja9nl &!;Web.:be:t, 1982; Ka:polan. 1962) ~.'tib.:; h~t~ of null va]J!I.e!I in .ril'l2ItiGnaL mo~ of da:t<a. CBisk~. 19W) •

In tb~ De<tl(f.<St.<!toSi;(>£e,r tb~oQ', am nulIV&1.iIC5 M'~ "D.ot IlOIll!1J.tM, gi"O'irvg :rlile ~Q wb~t ;$ :oefe:r.e<:! ~Q ~. n~r:<l'I&ii.mti.J!1:;· H.Ow€iver, it.is fl'!ll!,yoo ~ th~t l1(I7:!"Ilal-· izBltioE. '!2Ili lead. to a. miGlaading r~oo a query, 'Oo:ruSidoc,fo.r example, th~ .r~!.,;tJ!J-n EMP3 shD"l'!'.Il.illtlie Mla!;I.~ mg:

EMP3 Harne "o!...g~C~)
I [a,il
2 (3.
3 ~,S~
4 e
5 e Pol the query set Q! [2,4], oormBi~~ticm'iro~~d. lead 'teo ULe u.nQlli!lilfiOO ,ronclusion tlu!;~ 'Il~~ eln(Dlat'B88 have aC"M U!I&t ls ~W<) to :1',c,1l~ ~~~ old.

Sl!I.Cbt"Clkslea.:llns; '~~!l.se5 cua be '"'-.cii4cd, ,of ~OUIGe! by oo~ al!law'in.g II.I!\Tmlllimtlon (lot, better, by .porovidl!1g ~ rBlative m.UD~ of all t.he mLH valueso. A~ ~~ illti~r(l:tiM. ~Il. the exB;rnp.lE! under oorn;~de:!';!<tion, avaW!!~s: n(!{"1:ffi.~H~Miuli wo,uld lead to UL~ I"SGpimSB l'I'(Q) = n(Q) = :2l"'.""'dd.~g ~M: ilJrOl.malil~. about tIL!! nulL val!~.e8_~~d.re9ul~ In a respoose .... H~I three oo.mpo])l!ntG~ N(Q) = 21~; U{Ql = 2/5; Ref) = 3/~. wbere RcCdaootE!3 the reis,ti",e ~aillTl~oF tl1.e l"m~~ v.al!Il.~~.

AB pClinted ,mI~ ln Z~deh (H17!jib)., ruloIIDiI.I.i~tiall can lead! to a€lr.ia,UI!I problemsIn ~ll.e case ,of w.aM has coma to be known 515 thB D~psU!~hoit.fie~ .~~~ oj (It>m,~ino;tiQf,I. As u; ~~ in thB foHm'l1ingBl!ctlal"l, tl\~rU~~ ~ ~. $lm'lll~ 1nC>~><:t<l!i';ion in th.~ oomb!!:d G.f~i!1.[ieN~iL f~otn ~~tl().fiai1 ,d3:~l,;~es-a;1i ifit'='I'pQ~al:i.on t.hat ser\'B6 00 d&rlfy t~e lmpllC!jJti!ons ,0.1' i'lIQ:rLiil<'4liz~tiWn imd points to ways ill w~.lch the ml~ eea be :!lude useful.

The Dem~te,..S!lila,fer RulQ

Ill! the ex3:mp.]e,;o~n~hieQed ~ fur,'1!IE .bave IISSllm.ed th3!~ tb.ere ]s j!J5.t Oll!~ !WUIO!! I!(f i~fll:rtreM.lon ~OIl.1l!m1iin.g tJlte atmibute A_gi!. W.hat hB!p-pe-ru wheil~b.e~ ~ two or mGrB S(ollf'~ •. i1,S in too I",Lati!JnE:MP~ t;!i})lu.l&..-ed.boe!m<1

4.r1L 3bi1f<o:r'. ~ .. '). (SIw[i,r. 19'Tf1), ~~ll ~1~e8 ~'iIil Mt ~i[o"ed. in ~tL0 ~Qf1TIi{i!ltl <If b.u..[ fu".ti!:<n. ~ut "n~ ~~~ :pl~~U1O!l 10. ~.t~ eule <If =m"blTIMi(>;! o[ 'Q"01I~"","

EM:f'4 Name A~i A~~
[22,2.3-] l~~,2<1JI
2 (l9:;11] [20,21]
II [211,::!:1] ll.9,20]
4 [21,22j Il~,z.o]
S [22,231 119,21] ·B'eeall$C. Ut~~trles in Ag~ I and Age 2 ar8 PQ99iblHt.y d;WfIb .. ~i~~!l, i~ i~ ]-'il~Il.~l 'l<> ¢orn.binc thE: :iDUI(;6l; of .i!DfQ'·maUon byfunnl.TII.$ t:be jnt~t';)ec:t,il>li (or, (lqill~ntzy, tlM! ~O!\j!llru:t!o:D.} af the l'e9.~et:1iv~MS&i.biJj~y t1istrll\<~~iwll; Ell each ~,.N!!Il!IltiDg in t:be['@!a~i4n E!MJ;'S

[22,23] I:lO.2lJI 20 e e

In whi.m ~M~g(l;tJ.on op!lI~or " hca.a tbe rnean§tlg (liF i~eT.le<;bl<m_

Us-irl\S: '~.e ~l)mb'i~CI ~·e~a4ru(j t>o computE the IiIDl!lBOrrnal~ecl ~po~ eo the que~y ~~ Q = [20- 2~1_ ~,;~htt"

R~~(Q) = {N{Q} = 1;IT(Q) .. 1)_ (4.)

NotB thaoOFl!Dsliized! resP'DD9~ ~UPPl'<!9g~. til<! flu;t ~~M in ~~G-Blie of 4 and ~t.h!!. two 5OUIQI!9 a~e' jh~l!Y .cMlt~a.dlI;::. t~.

N~~, COll<n!jL.;le:t ~~ cese whm'l«: knQWth~ ~h~hu.tJan of ~be~i;dHW dlmlbut.:l.c>m &SDdatoo. w~tb tlu! hro roUl'Ces bm,t .m!J<t tJ:ie.jr .&alWI3!tI1)<11I w~tll pMticul;y~mployses. T.IiwB, in ~Ile~a&e ef Age 1, the .lnfcr~~tIMn e<>i1"e)'w by ~omc~ 1 is tha.t the possibil!ity di3mbutro:ng of tl1!e Afft ~i~bk and Ul~ilr IBlatiYI! OOUl1t5. !1!1 Agel 2I~I!' gl~en l;Iy tti1,e ~iiI&Ir d]8~lbut.iol!1

fIl'Jg. ~Il ~~ = or .Ag~ 2, tb.~ COIIT--I!5polld!i'Dg gra.nubr d!1Sc tJiD~~W!l1s

6.~ = ({A~, ~l)' . __ , (A;', (;\ffi,)).

B~~!iI!I~ ~ do I1!Ilit, blow tlile_~jBtiO:ll of A'5 With parlJO:;U!!n' ~mpl'oyee!I.oo ~~«tJ;:.ii'le t.lm t.!!,'O sources _ 1u!.\'8 ~o fol'l!Il. all pOB5~bl!!, irn;~!';9~tlGns ·Qf .il'~ and A~"~_ A:5 iJ,

I~U!t. in the ~ombLllet;l ~lLiJm Ay;. 1 ~, Ag~ 2, the data. ~[is5 w-i!! be of tbe farm

A! nA~,~, "" 1, •.•. ,.k,-t = 1, . __ ,m, 800 the· re!a;~i~~ ·cw~~ (0£ AI! {1 A~'5 win be .il'.~!.

TheN!guLt "f the I:<lifJ,hlliMi'.m t.hcn. is tile fullowing gFE!ln1liLs.r dis~.i.bw.tion:

Rj~ow~~g Al.~' .~. ~al! OOID.P'Utia t.berespDDse-8 to Q mafing (3) .a:~4 {~) .... !~~ ill ·i'iit.hutJ!~ D.Or.rua!i!Il8t;i!OO} •. It. is the

D~5t ehore8 ~b8.t l~ tot~ DerI1iPII~(:'r·'Sfuakr rule, .

As 8. aimpLe in1lB~1'l>tjoo, ;!L'~~me -tl:i(l!~ 'wo:: .,."i:;h to oombim.e the funowing gJ8Ru!aT distr:llb~:~500\!l.:

~l= {([2JiI, 21~, 0.8), ([22 .. 24].. IU)}

~ .. {(l19, W], ~.6), {~M, 2$1, Ml}· ID. thl!! eaae, (S)~C<)mes

and if Q i5 1I£.S1mlElll. to be .gL'lI2n boy -0 = [~in4], til<:: 00:0- n9rIDRmd IU1d oor.lIlsliil:e:d r~po= ·CidI be e_'1~d. ~

R~~(Q) - (N(Q) Iii1 o.a~TI(Q) = II.S8;~@ = (I.m

Norm .. R:~p(Q) l1li (N(q) = ~$/O.$&;n{Q} = 1)0.

If wo: ~.re d!t:<Jiiic.gwith a. ilafiru:te attrlilm~e, th~L ~, .. n (II~t.rll:>~e .... Mdl is oob ~. t.o tBike D!!LH. va!m.es, !ibo:f.l Lit. ls l'<!a!lan~bJ~ tQ' reJeQ~ U1Cruu1l.~alU'B5 inthe ool!l:ib-inea dis~.ibutio:m .. HOIol.I!!~, l~ ~~ ~Mrib<~&~ E!; indBJJruit8,. such Njl!8tlOn c81!1iBII.a to ~olJfl!lJ;ed~¢IIlJ~iVt re@l!ts.

The re!a~iooa! pGi111, af vi~ 1~~ W an LmWrl~ilot jjol!1ciJlllion ~~oong the VBiidit.y (j(f tJ!~ [I.e~t~';:_SJ;~6e. rule, .speocifimill.y, ilwe sssuma tba.t the att.rlbute I!! ~ • .tlit.>e,tlietl.tlie l:ober.lie>;;hloo;;. of ilia ai;rn.bw.t~ 1ISO!OC!IIi~dwUt.h any ~rn.ry ~IiOO~ ~e emj)~y, ~hat is, ~1ilAl relation II!lllit bE! !XJ1ifI;icr.-tr- Now. if w.e. ar.egf...-.eil t""O ~~.r di:;tlIDlJ}tions '::'.1. and .~. t:b.eD.th.e:re mll!lt ,,~ 8t leMt .;.1;'J: p<I!D!:ili rek!tjOD fur ~I. ilirul .a.~ tiNI.t is ClDruIliiCt-iri!8. I'D. ttJl; case, we .$31$ ~lL!3!~ ~lViOO ~ are oom~~aH~.

'iVbatth£.s h'tlf()Wes IstJl~~ jlJ. ,lie (;Me of ~. dBliI!ll~~ atetril!ru~~ one eaunet, Ln. ~De:tfIl, e<>.mbiM tWD &TbiITi[li~ specified. gr.e.l:lI!Ilaf: di!lt;r.ibU!t,j~ll1&. IniEOroe. ~p~ilfi.c lliMm!Is, this con'C~on~a.n b~ stated. a3 t.hefbUal't~cS e<ouj~~W'.e-:

In ~M ease of de:JinLte i!ttrib~~eol, tIM! DempstsrShIli~N rule C>f rofi1:bLil.a.tion O[e\i.idImll8 isnot !li"Plicag~~ '~Mil~~be nndJer!;rtD!l: grElmd;):J; dlstr,i:b""t·;QM ~ eortlbin.ab~e>, that is, h~ve at !~~ o~e P_ll!t ~elation. which. !is ¢oruf![;ct-fr.ee,

An ob"'iIlIUl! =vI!(I;ry o~ UII,; con;iEl"'tlJi!'e is ~11e io!lGw:ing:

If theroB~G 8. ,sra~l;Ile A., in '::'1 tl;,a:~ I!s disc jomt liom ~l ~1!ile8 A, in A~, ~~. ~ice-\I!!1;!I1l, t100 ~l ~~.iI .i~Rt'OII oo~ 'CQolooLnable,

Al!Iimmooi<'.te oongequ.~~ cl th~ OOt'<!lUarl ia thlllt d!istinct proha.bH'LW dJishic.ut.]ONl ~tlQt ooBllbio3hle and, h8D!:~, ~b~ tile Demp~ber,·Sb~er rule is not 8pphcnbk to ~ut1t d~tr~buti!Jru;, TIl.li~ expJaitlS wihiy th~ ~il:mI'J~ sjven in :l:?>deh (197%, 19@4) Ieadste OOlJIoimntll1ti"e r~'\!it&.

Concluding Re!!1l<lric:~

TilB lel~lon2ll view of t.h.~ Ileli'Ilj)Stef-S!laf~ the.a;;y tMt is g![Li:JSMd h.eri! '~dGes the OOsic 'd~~_3 and &5!itlJ1l!iptiDl!lB ~"derlyio:g the tfieou (!iiIi,<jI makes ~~ mud!l e:a.sier tD urull~· stand, F\rrIIt~ftlllO~e, :It poiM9 toextensions of tn~ ilie9ry fDr use ~B mt10W .M-.orienlil!d applications and, ~leo;~al1y, ~D. eJlpoer~ aygt.ems. ltEtmlgsuch EIl!~~,.w'b!clt ate dis,ci.o:=d ~o. ~e'h (197!l.a)"is dm~Wls;on 00 aeeend-crder ~j2ltioo6 in YiMcb. (l)t.he J~t.lL dl.t~ie~ &lI:e n.a~ restt.ictoBd tD cr~ ~!:S A'i!ld. (2} tJ~~ d'lstrLb'ill~i!Jm of dBi~ rntr.k:$ ",..e Gpedlied i.m~e.::i£eLy. 'Tni5 ext.e!l8iOIl provjwathree-w~t ~itL~ betwee-n tIM! D~8I·Shm4lr th~()iY, '~-e ~'hi!ory ,of inli(!.rnl'Rtion gllllfl;Ularit.y {ZM~h, W79a, ];9S11 and ~ne theQ'l'~ oJ f=y relational dilit.'lb~(:ol. (~ttlanIoo\ra-LeeClh and Kandel, 1984). A,,~t.h(:;r· 'm.wrtan~ ~liI!nii!Jn reJB,tes to th~ comhl;il;wOrL of $QoU!'<;~ ef lnfClrD1l&tlan. willi UD"'iI.ual cNldibilR.'I' r~~~es.. E~teruia.n t-o '9w.c:b.sol!lIO£~ I1G=iJt~~ the use of graded poE<8ibilit.y dlstributlena in lliMch ~5. bHLtr, !lke probability, is a. mE!lt;~, 'of deS.~ .ra:tJ~~ than a bin8<IY Cihmioo b~\'!i)oo~rkct PO~~Lhmt-ll 8M ~amplet~ impcmhili~y,

As ~a;r M t·he ~diW or tile Dem!p5t.er-Sh~!loI rule is <)oMenoed, the ~eJi!litiaDa! peint at 1I.LeIl.' ~Il'~ to the 0011·' ~~.e~u~~ ~b~ it cannot be applied ul1~1 1t is ~~rt.fLi;ooed ~bM the bodi~ of 8v:id~ME E!Iro ru:>t ~!1 'C>:)J>8kt; tha~ !g, there e~ists at l~ '1l\D!~ p<=nt ..e!;a:t,50l'l whLch IsoonflictfrEe, In partimili.:r, under this crttetJ(I(B,IJt is not permis~ub~~ to oornbil1~ dist.inctprobabl~ttJ (i~t.rilmbl!m~-whkh is <Ll1~ j;g~b~e\OrroeM~r~i<lOlLS .. f ~11e DeD1lpiS.tB1O·SltafieF ~h~(lry.

Rd'cr,eQed

EI ... nolt" J. A. (19.31) ,a..m:.oo:h<~i""OlI· '"""fh." fer ~ ",.,i;~."",,~~ Ih=l' oj .o&!."",. I~C,~I 7: ®SB.B75.,

E!Oik,up, J, (I~B~l A !(mnol eppeceeh ~. ",u~ ~_i~ d~~!ill_ ~ ~MJI~, Ln I:L. G"llOj,.1l: J, M,.i'I'iOOlila (~,) pQf,i;ijoJ ~<I;I./Il. J~", ~~, New y(\,k; Pl!!num .. f>ilIm. .

IlIem:,p.b~r, ,!L. 1'. (~9~,~ U])!ler Md toOo'er ~r·OOEoh!IH!~ l~d'J~~~ by a m~LffiI.J!OOd mapping. A.11'!o.!s M~a~~ &o<~o!l~ (as)32:!o. ~9,

00

Dill"",. 11;.., (198:3') COOO_j)Ir~!!!,~ _!I<I~~ In toctl.ol Iu.le>'b.",.j 'if" ~JI];l b-)' "*'g Doonp.""",Sh,,,r.r loh""'}'.. 'l'ei:b,[tQ., ~411, i'I_ (l~rd..n SYS~1::1"t!i:S Cenrer,

(!lilih<lls, [I,. &i"J;o.do, I:L. (~9M~ 'OD ,~ ,~_~~"" <It (j!(o """",10m hdy of ... j_ I" M, M, GtU~t~ &:El.~.",;"",,, (Ildo,j FliI'"i~. ;.,J!:..m~w~ . ..,~ 1l~U!· A,."t.rd..",N«1I1b H<>lJ..,d., ~GHSi.

~,"1:., i>l [.,;>wNno<, ,~. (t9el) E.i&n"ol ".=inS' ;"'I~n' t«~I"" 60r ",ullist<n .. trr ;"togt"ti.." T .. h. :R<!]!, ~5. SRl. JJjt~~'"' tJ,o".,] .. Artifmol

G....:J.., J & soo r::f af

.~11i s, (El:1,,") i!Mo~....J

.~.Itm!, M'~o.'" ~I; C>llf., Ad~I.., .... ~,

Ji:Nl'Ili, R.. K., &: \'i.'<ibb.,. s, :~~ (19S~) Thki",ll tho ;,.",otivo;". ~~ ,ra.l!.guiJ,g~ Qil~iJru.~ 'IIIt~radl:~n~, ~ .Air~iSg~ ~il,~~~1l.eii! C:iR.fu~c~~·. :Pmi.!i.

,~i!lSihl! ,A. K. ,(iE!82) Vy:i_l!I~iN ,(;i t:IXI,~.IjM.]"'E! ~1i~ m, [i 'qllBt-k;:O." tfll:l:s~ t~;F~1:iI11 It! ['~ '~ElI.1 (,E:(!-) Qi~r:ill~ .E!I' ~ru;Ii!i!rf., noc., d=ob1, N.~b;;iJ~diJ, Jl;(;I(I<,l, ~~~O'.

IC.!!l4rmo, S. j', (l9~) """I'~,o.O! •• """J'<I""'" foe a""rt..:bIo .... t!iJfiI. liI.lil!lU~q~',y"l"."""'- AJI'i!!fi<'Ii.II,,~jNs""oo ~(!;_ lEIS-Lay.

I:('AoJ®~" II_ M. (~'9r~,)I""""P""",i1;." "owl' i1>o ~'.f""'l,$.r. <>J 00- m",n.Ili.,'. Comb:i:i.~, C"",biid;w_ lJ.1li.ern\y PlE;[II.

N'SU;:'=" I:L T, (lll7~)O~ '~.O.lil !!&'I;i. ,&Od b~ll~f f~.I;"n s. J .. urnci ~f Mo.li~..,..~0;,1 "';~-$ ""~ AJI1>l1.;>LlJ.", (ti~): ~l..s~!!.

PrO<le. it, n,~B"} ~!J>$~". Il,!>J>7'Ioih to:! iooo,,"JI'lo1!o in~rmo.ti.oo dm h~ ~~~~ "",d s.n=>!lioeil ;n t~ oettim.G<iI'ZO$.I'."a .~bl'Il~ ~n~" .lrift>;m:lIl1i.., ,:l:~""''''' ~(l,), ~7·;bi,

~~.r..:r, G. (t91·8) A ",_ ... r IMo'1l ,~f <'1.'i~"" !'"n""bon, N.J .. : :Px~roll U:ni"If!i!I:r:J~,,"y F~.

'"""'10,)', L,.IhooT~ J.., ~ O(l~.'''w''i'· (I,~a~.) Ro=.~g o!i!..,,~ ro.n' ~["", .... ~idhTl~ ~PP""""h.· $.~". Ro,J>-~~d" = [nl«r ... iioo;iil ... ,~;r..<i.rol.!IIA!ollI~ .. C.n1!oo' ..

i!~~h, L. A_ (~n9.0)F'uoo:i eers ami 'itlfbI,.,""""'n Il,<M"k,.lt(l'. In M. tot. Gup ... , 1i.~.ru.,·omJ. :R, y~, {E:ds.} A,I""1t~1 n ~ <of """""'¥ ..,d 'II.IlWrOru.ii."" Amsl~t~~' N~'h. 1'J.:iIJ.:nd, 3.1S~ :z..d.b., L, A, (l~i'lI<b) (l" ~.~\~, Qr:(!l~",l"'b"'''[~l. «Ioo;;noo, "",tron of ~i~O!l, ER!.. M~~. ~~g'f2~, n..;p",t"""nl ,,[, !l8C5. Uni.'_ity or C~If:;.",1~ .. 1l.,IrcLof·

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