31 May 2010

Foreign Fund Flows

Peter Pham
tel (84 8) 3520-2050 mob (84 93) 885-8898
peter.pham@mekongsecurities.com

The Mekong Flow

Foreign equity trading for the week ending May 28th 2010

Ly Thi Tra Vu
tel (84 8) 3520-2050 mob (84 012) 85117192
ly.t.tra@mekongsecurities.com

Market Commentary
The small percentage of market volume generated from foreign investors
averages approximately 5% per trading session.

Fund Flows 26.44 US$mn Chg. 15.81 US$mn

Index

Additionally, the market tends to outperform when foreign buying is out-pacing

foreign selling in terms of the total percentage of volume traded on the index.
Hence, when foreign investors focus on large caps and foreign buying volumes
are significantly higher then selling one can interpret this as positive foreign
sentiment.

US$mn

550

10

Specifically, in a recent edition of The Daily Tide, MSC highlights the increasing
correlation between Vietnamese and global equities during periods of financial
market stress. Vietnamese equities are twice as correlated with global stock
moves during months when international markets underperformed. This is best
demonstrated as the percentage of total foreign buying begins to rapidly decline
relative to the percentage of total foreign selling. This is therefore a helpful
indicator for clients to refer to.

500

2-Mar 18-Mar

5-Apr

-5
21-Apr 12-May 28-May

450

-10

Accumulated Fund Flows

Recapping last week, Vietnam continues to attract foreign investment into

equities with an increase YTD of 445% YoY, with a boom since the Early May
market lows. Notably, the development of Vietnam's infrastructure continues to
be the focus for foreign investors, with stocks such as PPI garnering much of the
attention.
Peter Pham Head of Retail Research

Index

US$mn

550

350
300
250
200

500

150
100
50

450

0
2-Mar 18-Mar

5-Apr

21-Apr 12-May 28-May

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Foreign Fund Flows by Sector (US$mn)

Period
24/05-28/05
17/05-21/05
YTD

Total

26.436
10.631
304.956

Materials

0.790
0.933
9.040

Telecom

-0.013
-1.322
-10.975

Consum.
Disc

Consum.
Staples

Energy

Financials

Industrials

0.496
0.005
31.749

2.661
1.613
43.730

0.709
-0.016
-1.724

13.347
1.814
117.229

8.383
8.700
117.520

Tech

Utilities

Others

-0.012
-0.293
-2.338

0.059
-0.740
-10.112

0.016
-0.064
10.838

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Foreign Fund Flows by Country

Countries

As at

Day FF (US$mn)

WTD Net (US$mn)

MTD Net (US$mn)

YTD Net (US$mn)

Vietnam

28 May
26 May
27 May
28 May
27 May
27 May

5.57
-2.17
22.57
11.83
-98.18
-1.72

26.44
-491.04
83.06
-37.49
-638.06
-3.50

52.81
-2265.06
-278.99
-3.03
-1833.93
21.60

304.956
4324.14
262.78
361.23
-651.06
243.90

India
Indonesia
Philipinnes
Thailand
Pakistan
Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Pleasere refer to important disclosures at the end of this document.

www.mekongsecurities.com

YTD Net (YoY %)

15.01
-35.90
68.09
-461.40
188.60

31 May 2010

The Mekong Flow

VN-Index performance

VN-Index Performance Relative to Emerging Asia

800

1.3

700
600

1.1

500
400

0.9

300
200
1-Jun

1-Sep

1-Dec

0.7
1-Jun

1-Mar

1-Sep

1-Dec

1-Mar

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Vietnam P/E (12 mth trailing)

Vietnam P/E Relative to Emerging Asia (12 mth trailing)

30

1.2

25

20

0.8

15

0.6
10

0.4

5
0
1-Jun

1-Sep

1-Dec

0.2
1-Jun

1-Mar

1-Sep

1-Dec

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Vietnam P/B

Vietnam P/B Relative to Emerging Asia

1.6

1.4

1.2

1-Mar

1
0
1-Jun

1-Sep

1-Dec

0.8
1-Jun

1-Mar

1-Sep

1-Dec

1-Mar

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Foreign Trading as Percentage of Market Volume

Foreign Trading MSC Impact Coefficient and VN-Index

15

%
Buy

800

0.08

600

0.04

400

0.00

200

-0.04

Sell

10

0
3-Jun

0
3-Sep

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

FOREING FUND FLOWS

3-Dec

3-Mar

5-Dec

27-Mar

10-Jul

23-Oct

5-Feb

-0.08
28-May

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

31 May 2010

The Mekong Flow

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

point
560

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US)

db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam (XVTD LN)
VN-Index

60

540
520
500
480

db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam (XVTD LN)

U S$

40

460
440

No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Company Name
Vincom
HAGL JSC
Corp for Financing and Promo
Hoa Phat Group JSC
Petroviet Fertlz
Petrovietnam Drilling
Kinhbac City Development Share
Vietcombank
Song Da Urban
Petrovietnam Finance Joint Stock Corp

No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Company Name
Baoviet Holdings
Hagl Jsc
Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd
Viet Nam Construction & Impo
Kinh Bac City Development Sh
Jsc Bank For Foreign Trade
Capitaland Ltd
Petrovietnam Fert & Chemical
Talisman Energy Inc
Vietnam Jsc Commercial Bank

Ticker
VIC VM
HAG VM
FPT VM
HPG VM
DPM VM
PVD VM
KBC VM
VCB VM
SJS VM
PVF VM

Weigh.
11.62%
10.60%
6.55%
6.36%
5.83%
5.54%
5.42%
5.23%
4.21%
4.15%

420
400
8-Jan

5-Feb

As at

5-Mar

2-Apr

20
28-May

30-Apr

DB-XVTD VN

VNM US

28-May

28-May

42.39

24.30

1.58

5.47

Price($)
Change (%)
NAV($)
Asset ($mn.)
# share
Correlation

41.18

25.00

177.65

143.02

32

32

0.4733

0.2042

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US)

Ticker
BVH VM
HAG VM
ONGC IS
VCG VH
KBC VM
VCB VM
CAPL SP
DPM VM
TLM CT
CTG VM

Weigh.
9.43%
7.23%
4.94%
4.88%
4.82%
4.56%
4.53%
4.47%
4.45%
4.06%

Holding
(%)

Change
(%)

6.8
0.4
26.7
24.2
9.1
2.5
32.1
8.4
13.9
14.1

-2.4
-2.2
-1.4
-1.0
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5

Holding
(%)

Cash-out
(US$mn)

23.1
18.1
5.9
8.4
3.8
1.4
23.0
4.4
40.0
7.9

-0.671
-0.240
-0.203
-0.174
-0.164
-0.149
-0.112
-0.108
-0.093
-0.087

Source: Bloomberg, Deutche Bank Ttrackers, Van Eck Global

Foreign Holding Change by % (past week)

No

Top 10 % Increase

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

PPI
SPP
VPL
GLT
EID
CTD
BVS
HVG
SJD
VDL

Holding
(%)

Change
(%)

No

Top 10 Decrease

49.0
27.5
30.3
14.1
22.6
41.9
11.3
17.6
35.3
3.9

48.8
10.7
10.3
8.0
7.2
4.6
3.9
3.3
2.7
1.2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

VE1
DID
ITA
HAG
CIC
KHP
VNR
TAC
PNC
VTC

Holding
(%)

Cash-in
(US$mn)

No

Top 10 SELL

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

MCV
DPM
ALP
TAC
VCG
BTP
PVI
HT1
TTP
PHR

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Foreign Top Buy/Sell (past week)

No

Top 10 BUY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

KBC
HAG
SJS
SSI
KDC
HSG
DIG

18.2
24.2
27.8
44.5
30.9
26.3
20.9

3.527
2.880
2.601
2.386
1.779
1.331
1.278

8
9
10

CII
ITA
VCB

32.4
26.7
23.3

1.012
0.999
0.930

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

FOREING FUND FLOWS

31 May 2010

The Mekong Flow

Foreign Top Holdings

No

Top 20 HOLDINGS (This week)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

EIB
PPI
RIC
ACB
TKU
VNM
STB
HCM
BBC
ST8
IFS
TCR
HBE
TCM
BMP
TRI
SSI
DHG
TYA
IMP

Holding
(%)

Room
(%)

No

Top 20 HOLDINGS (Last week)

30.0
49.0
49.0
30.0
49.0
49.0
30.0
49.0
49.0
49.0
48.2
46.8
46.5
45.8
45.6
45.5
44.5
44.1
43.3
42.7

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
2.2
2.5
3.2
3.4
3.5
4.5
4.9
5.7
6.3

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

EIB
PPI
RIC
ACB
TKU
VNM
STB
BBC
ST8
HCM
IFS
TCR
HBE
BMP
TRI
TCM
SSI
DHG
TYA
IMP

Holding
(%)

Room
(%)

30.0
49.0
49.0
30.0
49.0
49.0
30.0
49.0
49.0
48.9
48.2
46.8
46.5
45.6
45.5
45.4
44.3
44.1
43.1
42.7

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.8
2.2
2.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.7
4.9
5.9
6.3

Source: Bloomberg, MSC

Glossary
Emerging Asia includes India, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan

Disclaimer
Copyright 2010 Mekong Securities. All rights reserved.
Mekong Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research document is prepared on the basis of information believed to be reliable at the time of publication. Mekong Securities
makes no representation or warranty regarding the completeness or accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and
projections expressed in this document are subject to change without notice. Investors must make their investment decisions based
upon independent advice subject to their particular financial situation and investment objectives. Neither the information nor any
opinion expressed in this research constitutes an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or derivative instruments in
any jurisdiction. Directors, associates, employees and affiliates of Mekong Securities may have a financial interest in securities
mentioned in this research or in related instruments and also undertake brokerage, investment banking and advisory services for
companies described herein.
This document may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the express
consent of an authorized representative of Mekong Securities. Please cite sources when quoting.
Source: Bloomberg, MSC
FOREING FUND FLOWS