UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED

SCIENCE AND ARTS

NORTHWESTERN
SWITZERLAND

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction

Techniques
An interpretivistic approach to predict future moves of
competitors in a specific business situation, based on a
systematic selection among various prediction
techniques
Written by:
Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne
Supported and supervised by:
Sandra Schlick
For the course:
Practice-oriented research project (SS14)
taught by
Prof. Dr. Knut Hinkelmann, Dr. Hans Friedrich Witschel
Submitted at:
20th June 2014

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

1. Content

1.

Content........................................................................................................................ 2

2.

Abstract........................................................................................................................ 3

3.

Introduction.................................................................................................................. 4
1.1.

Purpose of the research......................................................................................... 4

1.2.

Thesis statement................................................................................................... 4

1.3.

Research question.................................................................................................. 4

4.

Initial situation............................................................................................................. 5
1.4.

Competitor moves prediction techniques..............................................................5

1.1.1.

Game-theoretic techniques............................................................................. 5

1.1.2.

Web-mining..................................................................................................... 5

1.1.3.

Competitor scenario........................................................................................ 5

1.5.

Business situation of TWI....................................................................................... 5

5.

The research method................................................................................................... 7

6.

Results......................................................................................................................... 9

7.

Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 10

8.

References................................................................................................................. 11

9.

List of tables............................................................................................................... 13

10.

List of figures.......................................................................................................... 14

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

2. Abstract

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

3. Introduction
1.1.

1.2.

Purpose of the research

Thesis statement

In the particular example of TWI, where an organization intends to expand into the field
of the customer, what is the appropriate tool, which best analyzes the situation.

1.3.

Research question

What are the appropriate competitor analysis tools which are best suitable in order to
expand into the field of the customer?

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

4. Initial situation
1.4.

Competitor moves prediction techniques

1.1.1.

Game-theoretic techniques

1.1.2.

Web-mining

1.1.3.

Competitor scenario

1.5.

Business situation of TWI

History
TWI AG is a Swiss software development enterprise founded in the city of Biel in 1985.
Originally, its mission just was to develop complex IT solutions, which would help its B2B
customers to become better in their own businesses. So there was no commitment to
any branch or any kind of software in the beginning.
However, the situation changed during the last ten years before the beginning of this
research. Following a an approach which Mintzberg calls an "evolving strategy"
(Mintzberg:1987), the company happened to became specialized due to the fact that one
of its products turned out to be significantly more successful than the others. It was the
learning management system (LMS) Global Teach, which in 2013 generated the
significant majority of the company's revenue. TWI focused on the e-learning market and
provided a complex technology solution in the high-quality segment. The emphasis on
quality was also important, as a company based in Switzerland, employing highly skilled
engineers for Swiss salaries, cannot compete on price in most European countries.
Product
Global Teach is a complex learning management system, designed to administrate
different kind of training processes and operations for a large number of learners, as well
as to provide controlled access to different types of web-based learning content and to
enable distance collaboration between learners, trainers or other persons. By covering
almost all IT related tasks of an organization's training activities, Global Teach is an
important component of the training infrastructure of TWI's customers. Unlike other
proprietary or open-source LMS, Global Teach emphasizes quality and IT security.
Therefore it is an attractive system for organizations with high security requirements, as

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

e.g. in the military sector, banking or public administration, as well as for large
telecommunication companies.
Market changes
Since 2010, TWI encountered a stagnation of growth. It became increasingly more
difficult to win new customers, meanwhile the existing ones became more demanding in
terms of non-technical support services, which TWI struggled to perform for a
competitive price. In order to understand the problem, it is helpful to consider the
training portfolio of a typical TWI customer:

As the figure shows, the LMS is only one component of a larger set of resources required
to fulfil the training needs of an organization. It must be completed by digital or printed
training content, by subject matter experts or trainers and last but not least by
consulting services to address individual training needs. Since TWI is a mere engineering
company and therefore not prepared to deliver these complementing services, the
customer organization needs to buy them in addition from other providers. Often these
providers are e-learning agencies, which provide full e-learning solutions. These agencies
can be competitors for TWI, if they provide their own LMS, or customers, if they decide to
integrate Global Teach in their solution. But in both cases it became obvious that since elearning activities of large organizations become more and more professional, the elearning market demands full training solutions instead of single technology components.
Expanding the business
In 2013, the management decided to react on the market change by founding the
Swissteach AG, a new daughter company of TWI. Swissteach is a consulting firm,
specialized on developing tailored training solutions for individual customers, and to
realize them by combining TWI's software technology with content or services from
strategic partners in low-wage countries, especially in Germany. Swissteach was
supposed to become the bridge between TWI and the organization that uses its
technology.
As every company which expands one step forward in the value chain, TWI/Swissteach
had to take into account that their decision attacks several competitors in the e-learning
market. Some of them might be current or potential future customers of TWI. Therefore,
Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

a careful analysis of expectable reactions of these competitors had to be part of the

planning process.

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

5. The research method

The figure below illustrates the research methodology.

The methodology followed for the research is based on the `The Research Onion
proposed by Saunders et al. (2009) (Saunders, et al., 2009). By evaluating the existing
analysis tools and developing a checklist for the evaluation of the analysis tools, this
research follows an inductive approach. The checklist is based on the identified elements
of the analysis tools.
Interviews and narrative are conducted and compared with theoretical insights. They
answer whether the identified set of tools are fit for the task of expanding into the
customer area.
This is an interpretivistic approach because we analyze the tools based on the example
and report the best set of tools for this specific situation.
Following a Mono-method approach, the evaluation is based on analyzing the narrative,
consisting of the description of a set of competitor analysis tools used in the past. A
Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

checklist is used to evaluate the identified elements of competitor analysis. The checklist
is based on the identified elements of analysis tools. It is expected that new elements or
an alternative procedures emerge, like the example of (Tsai, W, et al., 2011) where the
competitive acumen is developed based on intuition.
The elements are applied to the firm, TWI, in a specific decision situation when TWI
intends to expand into the field of the customer, indicating a cross sectional approach.
Evaluation Data
The data collected for this research are qualitative in nature. As described by
(Denscombe, 2007), the qualitative data answers the `how and `why questions.
The analysis of the data, which is collected from the interview, answers the `how
questions of this research. The interview is recorded and transcribed. The data consists
of the narrative of the CEO of TWI, describing how TWI acted in the past based on the
CEOs competitor analysis. It includes the tools and methods used. To derive more
specific data to answer the research question, a checklist is developed, which indicates
the tools to be used in this specific situation of TWI, and the parameters involved.
As a next step, the data from the narratives as well as the interview answers are
interpreted in the context of what answer to the research question they imply. Based on
narrative and interview answers, it is shown what prediction techniques the CEO
considers to be suitable. A comparison of these CEO-favored prediction techniques with
those recommended by the checklist of the researchers will show the validity of the
research. If both selections match, this will reinforce the conclusion that the research
findings are valid. If they do not, the data will reinforce the conclusion that the findings
should be completed with new procedures or elements.

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

6. Results

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

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Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

7. Conclusion

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

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Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

8. References
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Chen, M.-J. & MacMillan, I.C., 1992. NONRESPONSE AND DELAYED RESPONSE TO
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Denscombe, 2007. The Good Research Guide. s.l.:s.n.
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Gibbons, Robert, 1992. A Primer in Game Theory. Pearson Education
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Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

Applications, 10, pp.418427.

Petrushchak, T.I., Mykhalenych, S.I. & Zhyvko, V. V, 2008. COMPETITOR
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Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

9. List of tables

Bharath Anmaruthai, Ulf Sanne FHNW, Switzerland

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Practice Oriented Research Project (SS14)

Selecting Competitor Moves Prediction Techniques

10. List of figures

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