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Probability An Example
For example, suppose we have a data set where in six
cities, we count the number of malls located in that city
present:
City # of Malls
Outcome #1
1
1
Each
2
4
count of
Sample
3
4
Outcome #2
the # of
Space
malls in
4
4
Outcome #3
a city is
5
2
an event
Outcome #4
6
3
We might wonder if we randomly pick one of these six
cities, what is the chance that it will have n malls?
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
0.50
P(xi)
xi
1
2
3
4
0.25
xi
This plot uses thin lines to denote that the probabilities are
massed at discrete values of this random variable
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
P(xi) = 1
i=1
P(xi)
P(xNorth) =
P(xEast) =
P(xSouth) =
P(xWest) =
P(xi)
xi
until we had an opportunity to sample and establish some
tendency in the wind pattern based on those observations
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
Bernoulli Trials
A set of Bernoulli trials is the way to
operationally test the law of large numbers using
an event that has two possible outcomes:
1. N independent trials of an experiment (i.e. an
event like a coin toss) are performed; using the
word independent here stipulates that the results
of one trial do not influence the result of the next
2. Every trial must have the same set of possible
outcomes (heads and tails must be the only
available results of coin tosses using other sorts
of experiments, this is a less trivial issue)
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
Bernoulli Trials
Bernoulli trials cont.
3. The probability of each outcome must be the
same for all trials, i.e. P(xi) must be the same
each time for both xi values
4. The resulting random variable is determined by
the number of successes in the trials (where we
define successes to be one of the two available
outcomes)
We will use the notation p = the probability of
success in a trial and q = (p 1) as the probability
of failure in a trial; p + q = 1
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
Possible Outcomes
(1 - p)
RR
p2
p2
2[p*(1 p)]
2pq
(1 p)2
q2
p3
p3
RN NR
NN
3
RRR
# of Rain Days
3p2q
3[p*(1 p)2]
3pq2
NNN
(1 p)3
q3
Possible Outcomes
RR
RN NR
NN
# of Rain Days
0.2
0.8
p2
0.04
2pq
0.32
q2
0.64
RRR
p3
0.008
3p2q
0.096
3pq2
0.384
NNN
q3
0.512
=1
=1
=1
Bernoulli Trials
A graphical representation:
probability
# of successes
1 event, = (p + q)1 = p + q
2 events, = (p + q)2 = p2 + 2pq + q2
3 events, = (p + q)3
= p3 + 3p2q + 3pq2 + q3
Source: Earickson, RJ, and Harlin, JM. 1994. Geographic Measurement and Quantitative
Analysis. USA: Macmillan College Publishing Co., p. 132.
4 events, = (p + q)4
= p4 + 4p3q + 6p2q2 + 4pq3 + q4
Bernoulli Trials
We can provide a general formula for calculating
the probability of x successes, given n trials and a
probability p of success:
n!
C(n,x) =
x! * (n x)!
where n! = n * (n 1) * (n 2) * * 3 * 2 * 1
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
n!
P(x) =
* px *(1 - p)n - x
x! * (n x)!
24
P(x) =
* (0.2)2 * (0.8)2
2*2
P(x) = 6 * (0.04)*(0.64) = 0.1536
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
P(x)
C(n,x)
px
(1 p)n x
P(0)
(0.2)0
(0.8)4
0.4096
P(1)
(0.2)1
(0.8)3
0.4096
P(2)
(0.2)2
(0.8)2
0.1536
P(3)
(0.2)3
(0.8)1
0.0256
P(4)
(0.2)4
(0.8)0
0.0016
0.50
P(xi)
xi
0
2
3
4
0.25
xi
David Tenenbaum GEOG 090 UNC-CH Spring 2005
P(xi)
P(x) =
x!
P(x) =
x!
Expected Values
P(x)
Fexp
17
0.49
15.2
0.35
10.9
0.12
3.7
0.03
0.9
0.005
0.2
31
22
1.000
30.9
Total values
days
e- * x
P(x) =
x!
e-0.71 * 0.71x
P(x) =
x!
Fexp = P(x) * 31
murders
Regular
Low variance
Mean 1
2:x is low
Random
Variance
Mean
2:x ~ 1
Clustered
Low variance
Mean 0
2:x is high