CityofSeattle MayorsOffice/PoliceDepartment

InformingtheExpansionoftheLEADInitiative

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter
ChristopherFisher,PhD,SeniorPolicyAdvisor

September25th,2015 Allfiguresaresubjecttofurtheranalysisandrevision.

PrimaryAnalyticQuestions
1. WhatisthepenetrationrateoftheLEADinitiativeintheexistingservicezone?
WhatisthesizeofthedrugrelatedcriminaljusticepopulationintheLEADzone?
WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavebeenofferedLEADparticipation?
Whatproportionoftheseindividualsareineligiblebasedonoperatingprotocols?

2. Whereareotherhighdensitydrugrelatedcriminaljusticecontactshappening?
Whatisthesizeofthedrugrelatedcriminaljusticepopulationintheseareas?
WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavecontactsintheexistingLEADzone?
WhatproportionoftheseindividualshavebeenofferedLEADparticipation?
Whatproportionoftheseindividualsareineligiblebasedonoperatingprotocols?

3. Whatisthehistoryofjailbookingsofthesepopulations?

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

AnalyticOverview

TheSeattlePoliceDepartmentprovideddataoncallsforservice(911),policegeneral
offensereports,individualscontacted,andarrestsforageneralperiodof2008through
May2015.

TheKingCountyJailapprovedtheuseofjailbookingdata(suppliedforstatewide
JusticeReinvestmentwork)forfurtherenhancingtheseanalyses.

Theincludedanalysesconsidereddatafor2011throughMay2015tomirrorthelaunch
ofLEADinOctober2011.

Kerneldensityanalysesofthe4.5yearsofdatarevealedthreeprimaryhighdensity
locationsfordrugrelatedcallsforserviceandarrests.TwowereintheexistingLEAD
zoneandthethirdprovidedthecreationofadraftCapitolHillexpansionzoneto
facilitatefurtheranalyticwork.

Drugrelatedcallsandarrestswereidentifiedbyrecodingalleventswherethe
descriptivedatafieldcontainedkeywordssuchasdrugs,narcotics,illegalsubstance,
overdose,VUCSA,marijuana,etc.

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

AnalysesofCallsforService(911)InvolvingDrugs
Total
Callsin %ofCalls
Callsin
%ofCalls %ofCalls
Calendar Citywide LEAD
inLEAD CapitolHill inCapitol Across
Year
Calls
Zone
Zone
Zone
HillZone BothZones
2011
16709
7495
45%
1626
10%
55%
2012
17711
8526
48%
2072
12%
60%
2013
17042
9211
54%
1574
9%
63%
2014
18357
9626
52%
1367
7%
60%
2015
(thruMay) 10746
5389
50%
598
6%
56%
Total
80565
40247
50%
7237
9%
59%

Densityanalysesrevealthreesubstantialconcentrations
ofcallsforservicefordrugrelatedconcerns
Downtown Pike/Pine
Downtown Pioneer/Occidental
CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Theconcentrationhasebbedbutstillrepresents~60%
ofalldrugrelatedcallsforservice
TheLEADZoneis1.51squaremiles(~2%oftotal
Seattlearea)
TheCapitolHillZonewouldbe.35squaremiles
(~0.5%oftotalSeattlearea)

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

AnalysesofDrugRelatedArrests
Total
Arrests %of
Arrestsin %ofArrests %ofArrests
Calendar Citywide inLEAD Arrestsin CapitolHill inCapitol AcrossBoth
Year
Arrests
Zone LEADZone
Zone
HillZone
Zones
2011
1548
687
44%
111
7%
52%
2012
1080
474
44%
68
6%
50%
2013
979
444
45%
86
9%
54%
2014
740
281
38%
61
8%
46%
2015
(thruMay)
Total

287
4634

118
2004

41%
43%

20
346

7%
7%

48%
51%

Densityanalysesrevealthreesubstantialconcentrationsofdrug
relatedarrestssimilartocallsforservice.

Downtown Pike/Pine

Downtown Pioneer/Occidental

CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Thereisabroaderdiffusionofarreststhancalls,butthesethree
areasstillrepresentclosetoorabove50%ofallcitywidedrug
relatedarrests.

Fortheentiretimeperiod(2011 May2015)acrosstheentire
city,3,531individualsaccountedforthe4,634totalarrests.

Halfofallindividualsarrestedcitywideondrugrelated
chargeshadsuchanarrestinthesezones(1,768peoplein
2,350arrests)

1,507individualshadarrestsintheLEADZone

296individualshadarrestsintheCapitolHillZone

35individualshadanarrestinbothzones

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

AnalysesofBookedDrugArrests
%of
%of
%of
Total Bookings Bookings Bookings Bookingsin Bookings
Calendar Citywide inLEAD inLEAD inCapitol CapitolHill AcrossBoth
Year
Bookings Zone
Zone
HillZone
Zone
Zones
2011
1361
611
45%
105
8%
53%
2012
911
400
44%
61
7%
51%
2013
842
383
45%
74
9%
54%
2014
651
248
38%
56
9%
47%
2015
(thruMay)
Total

249
4014

102
1744

41%
43%

17
313

7%
8%

48%
51%

Densityanalysesrevealsimilarhighdensityareasforarreststhat
resultedinjailbookings.

Downtown Pike/Pine

Downtown Pioneer/Occidental

CapitolHill Pike/Pine&CalAnderson

Thepatternforarrestsleadingtobookingsappearstofollowthe
trendinwherearrestsoccur,withnoevidenceofparticularareas
producingadisproportionateconcentrationofbookings.

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

CallsforService,Arrests,andUniqueOffenders
LEADServiceZoneCallandEnforcementTrends
10000

8000

9626

9211

9000

ProposedCapitolHillLEADServiceZoneCall
andEnforcementTrends
2500

8526

2072

7495
2000

7000

1626
6000

5389

1574

1500

1367

5000
4000

1000

3000

598

2000
1000

500
687
575

474 422

444 371

281 247

111100

118 114

68 59

86 74

61 57

20 20

0
2011

2012

CallsforService

2013
Arrests

2014

(thruMay
2015)

UniqueIndividualsArrested

2011

2012

CallsforService

2013
Arrests

2014

(thruMay
2015)

UniqueIndividualsArrested

Anapproximate10%conversionratefromcallstoarrestssuggestspolicewereusingalternativeresponses.

ShouldmorecallsbeaddressedwithaLEADreferralordoesexistingalternativeresponsemodelalreadyachieve
desiredoutcomes?

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

JailDaysandRepeatArrests
AverageJailBedsOccupiedbyDrugrelatedBookings
CalendarYear
2011
2012
2013

2011
2012
2013

AverageJailDaysfor
AverageJailDaysfor MedianJailDays AverageJailDaysfor MedianJailDaysfor
DrugBookings
MedianJailDaysfor DrugBookingsLEAD forDrugBookings DrugBookingsCapitol
DrugBookings
Citywide
DrugBookingsCitywide
Zone
LEADZone
HillZone
CapitolHillZone
26
3
28
4
18
3
27
4
28
4
20
3
19
3
17
3
19
5
AverageDaily
Population
73
55
32

AverageDaily
Population
8
8
5

AverageDaily
Population
45
33
17

AverageDaily
Population
6
5
5

AverageDaily
Population
5
3
4

AverageDaily
Population
1
0.5
1

Evenwiththebiasedmeanmeasure,drugrelatedbookingsaccountforasmallnumberofjailbeds.

ArrestFrequencyofOffenderswithatleast1DrugrelatedArrest

CalendarYear

Average(Median)#of
ArrestsinPriorYears
(2008)with1+current
drugarrestCitywide

Average(Median)#of
ArrestsinCurrentYear
with1+currentdrug
arrestCitywide

2011
2012
2013

9.4(8)
4.6(2)
5.8(2)

4.6(3)
3.1(2)
3.2(2)

Average(Median)# Average(Median)#of
Average(Median)#of ofArrestsinCurrent ArrestsinPriorYears Average(Median)#of
ArrestsinPriorYears Yearwith1+current (2008)with1+current ArrestsinCurrentYear
(2008)with1+current
drugarrestLEAD drugarrestCapitolHill with1+currentdrug
drugarrestLEADZone
Zone
Zone
arrestCapitolHillZone

9.5(7.5)
5.9(3)
6.2(3)

3.9(3)
3.3(2)
3(2)

9.4(8)
4.6(3)
6.8(2.5)

4.3(3)
5.2(1.5)
5.3(3)

Thereisnocleartrendinthearresthistoriesofthosearrestedeachyear(atleastonceona
drugrelatedcharge).
Thedecreaseinaveragenumberof2008YTDarrestsforthosearrestedeachyear,may
suggestthathighfrequencyoffenderswereexitingthesystem,insomemanner.
CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

InitialTrends

Consistencyinconcentrationofdrugrelatedcallsforservice,arrests,andjailbookings.
Threegeographichotspots,withtwointhecurrentLEADservicezoneandoneinapotential
CapitalHillexpansionzone.

Existingandproposedservicezoneswouldcover2.5%ofSeattleslandareaandaccountfor~60%of
drugrelatedcallsforserviceand~50%ofdrugrelatedarrests.
Themuchlargerexistingzoneaccountsfor~40%and~45%,respectively.
Thereisanotunexpected,giventhefocusofLEAD,decreaseinarrestsandbookingsintheLEAD
servicezone.

Threeareassuggesttheneedforadditionalapproaches(Aurora,UniversityDistrict,&RainierValley,
astheyhaveconcentrationsofenforcementwithoutamatchingdensityofcallsforservice.

Acrossall4.5yearsofarrestdata,thereare1,768individualsarrestedfordrugrelatedbehaviorin
thesetwozones,representinghalfofallindividualsarrestedforsuchchargescitywide.
34%(597)oftheseindividualshaveaviolentoffense(proxyduetodataconcerns)jailbookingin
theirpast(2008thruMay2015).

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

PendingAnalyses&Questions
PenetrationRate
DuetoconcernsregardingthereliabilityofconnectingLEADcontactstoarrest
historiesthroughpersonalidentificationnumbers(PINs),analysesofwhichdrug
involvedarresteeshaveandhavenotbeencontactedbyLEADarepending.
BehavioralHealthNeeds
Witharrestdataandjaildatanowjoined,theidentifiedpotentiallyeligible~1,200
individualswillbecrossmatchedwithFamiliarFacestodeterminetheproportion
withidentifiedmentalhealth/substanceabuseneeds
SystemResponses
Fortheapproximately1,200LEADeligibleindividuals,theirSPDandjailcontact
patternswillbeexaminedtocraftapictureofsysteminvolvementandtheir
responsestothoseactions

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

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CSGJUSTICECENTER.ORG/SUBSCRIBE
ThismaterialwaspreparedfortheCityofSeattle.Thepresentationwasdeveloped
bymembersoftheCouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenterstaff.Because
presentationsarenotsubjecttothesamerigorousreviewprocessasotherprinted
materials,thestatementsmadereflecttheviewsoftheauthor(s),andshouldnot
beconsideredtheofficialpositionoftheJusticeCenter,themembersofthe
CouncilofStateGovernments,orthefundingagencysupportingthework.

CouncilofStateGovernmentsJusticeCenter

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