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Acknowledgements
Guido Sonnemann, UNEP, provided valuable input and comments; the Resource
Panel’s secretariat coordinated the preparation of this report.
Thanks go to Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker and Ashok Khosla as co-chairs of the
Resource Panel, the members of the Resource Panel and the Steering Committee
for fruitful discussions. Additional comments of a technical nature were received from
some governments participating in the Steering Committee.
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About the UNEP Division of Technology,
Metal Stocks Industry and Economics
in Society
The UNEP Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) helps
governments, local authorities and decision-makers in business and
Scientific Synthesis
industry to develop and implement policies and practices focusing on
sustainable development.
The Division works to promote:
> sustainable consumption and production,
> the efficient use of renewable energy,
> adequate management of chemicals,
> the integration of environmental costs in development policies.
Preface
Economic development is deeply coupled Comparison of the per capita stocks in indus-
with the use of metals. During the 20th cen- trialized countries with those in developing
tury the variety of metal applications in soci- countries suggests that if the total world pop-
ety grew rapidly. In addition to mass appli- ulation were to enjoy the same levels of use
cations such as steel in buildings and alu- as the industrialized countries, the amount of
minium in planes, more and more different global in-use metal stocks required would be
metals are in use for innovative technologies 3−9 times those existing at present.
such as the use of the specialty metal indium
in LCD screens. This report, the first in a series of six, has
been compiled by the Global Metals Flows
Metals are present everywhere around us Group of UNEP’s Resource Panel. It provides
and are one of the major materials upon reasonably detailed information on the in-use
which our economies are built. In particular stocks for five metals, and sparse but poten-
in emerging economies, but also in industri- tially useful information for nineteen other
alized countries, the demand for metals is metals.
increasing.
Closing the information gaps about stocks in
Therefore, mining activities expand, poten- human society provides important informa-
tially leading to growing environmental tion about the potential of metal recycling to
impacts. Recycling is a way to mitigate these supply future demand. The utilization of these
impacts. We can call this “mining above growing metal stocks through recycling is
ground” or “urban mining”, and these activi- expected to be an important source for metal
ties are of increasing importance in generat- supply in the future.
ing raw materials.
2
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Preface
Metals are a core, centre-piece of the glo- This, the first report in this area, focuses on
bal, economy: Whether it be in the manu- the stocks of metals in society. It provides,
facture of buildings or cars to the booming from a global perspective, the best scientific
production of mobile phone, computers and information available on the quantity of metal
other electronic goods, metals have become stocks in the world.
increasingly important to commerce.
In particular it provides authoritative esti-
But metals are also part of the challenge mates of metals currently in use and their
society is facing in its transition to a low car- lifetimes. This in turn allows evaluations on
bon, resource efficient 21st Green Economy. the amounts of metals that may re-enter the
global and national economies allowing gov-
Metals are a finite resource, whose manage- ernments to make more intelligent and tar-
ment, consumption and production echo to geted decisions on metals management.
the need to adopt a recycling economy. Met-
als also have impacts as a result of their This is no easy task and here I would like
mining, extraction and refining. Meanwhile to congratulate the Resource Panel and its
some metals have, as a result of their use experts and partners for bringing to govern-
and disposal in products and processes, ments, business and civil society a further
health implications and ones that impact on and important piece in the sustainability jig-
the wider environment. saw puzzle.
Understanding, quantifying and estimating Metals encapsulate the 21st century chal-
the ways metals flow through economies is lenge of realizing sustainable development:
part of the solution to better managing their development that requires and requests a far
impacts and their benefits. Indeed the Inter- more intelligent understanding and trajectory
national Panel for Sustainable Resource that reflects the needs of a planet of six bil-
Management, hosted by UNEP and estab- lion people, moving to more than nine billion
lished in 2007, identified metals as a key area by 2050.
in terms of the 21st century sustainability
challenge.
3
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Table of Contents
Prefaces ____________________________________________________________________________ 2
8 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 27
References _________________________________________________________________________ 28
Appendices ________________________________________________________________________ 30
4
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
List of Figures
Figure 1. The Generic Life Cycle of a Metal, with Stock Locations Indicated_______________ 12
List of Tables
Table 1. Extant In-Use Metal Stock Estimations for the Major Engineering Metal ________ 17
Table 2. Extant In-Use Metal Stock Estimations for Precious Metals ___________________ 18
Table 3. Extant In-Use Metal Stock Estimations for Specialty Metals ___________________ 19
5
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Units
g Gram
6
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Chemical Abbreviations
Ferrous Metals Specialty Metals Eu – Europium
Bi – Bismuth Ge – Germanium
Tl – Thallium
Precious Metals
W – Tungsten
Ag – Silver
Y – Yttrium
Au – Gold
Zr – Zirconium
Pt – Platinum
La – Lanthanum
Pd – Palladium
Ce – Cerium
Rh – Rhodium
Pr – Praseodymium
Os – Osmium
Nd – Neodymium
Ir – Iridium
Sm – Samarium
Ru – Ruthenium
7
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
8
Executive Summary
The continued increase in the use of metals
over the twentieth century has led to a sub-
stantial shift from geological resource base
to metal stocks in society. Such a shift raises
social, economic, and environmental issues
that require quantifying the amount of stock
of “metal capital” utilized by society. This
report reviews the relevant literature on this
topic. From a compilation of 54 studies, it is
clear that a reasonably detailed picture of in-
use stocks and in-use lifetimes exists for only
five metals: aluminium, copper, iron, lead,
and zinc, and in only two cases have spatial
stock allocations been performed. Limited
data suggest that per capita in-use stocks in
more-developed countries typically exceed
those in less-developed countries by factors
of five to ten. Sparse but potentially useful
in-use stock information exists for nineteen
other metals. There is a little information
on stocks in government repositories, and
essentially none on stocks in “hibernation”,
in tailings repositories, in industrial stock-
piles, or in landfills, nor on typical in-use life-
times for almost the entire periodic table of
the elements. Outflows from in-use stocks,
potentially useful for determining future rates
of reuse, can currently be reliably estimated
only for aluminium, copper, iron, and lead.
The first five reports form the necessary basis for the last report.
A number of policy-relevant issues will be ■■ How well can scientists quantify the spa-
addressed in these reports, including the tial distributions of metal stocks in society?
following: (Report 1)
■■ To what extent is information available on ■■ What is the efficiency with regard to metal
the metal stocks in society? (Report 1) recovery? (Report 2)
10
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
■■ What are the recycling rates of metals in ■■ For which metals may supplies become
various countries, various regions, and the critical, and over what time frames?
planet as a whole? (Report 2) (Report 5)
■■ What are the related environmental im- ■■ Is today’s use of metals sustainable? If not,
pacts of different metal mining refining what policy options are suggested by the
and recycling techniques? (Report 3) information developed in Reports 1 – 4?
(Report 5)
■■ To what extent is information available
on the virgin reserves and resources of The first three of the six reports are in the
metals? current Terms of Reference and Work Plan
for the Group, and are expected to be com-
■■ To what extent can end of life discard pleted by 2010. The second three are expect-
streams from electronics, automobiles, ed to constitute the Work Plan for the Group
and other products be used as a secondary for the 2010 – 2012 time period.
source of metals? (Report 2b)
11
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
3, Import / Export
metal in
processor
stockpiles;
4,
metal in
government
stockpiles; Processing Fabrication Use Discard
Mgt.
5,
metal in 3 5 6 7
manufacturer
stockpiles; 4
6,
metal in-use
stock;
Ore Environment
7, 1 2 8
metal in recycler
stockpiles;
8,
metal in landfill A group of less well studied stocks are recovery may well not be economically
stockpiles. termed “anthropogenic”; these are the feasible. All of these stocks are, in principle,
metal stocks in society, already extracted, the subject of the present report.
Emissions from processed, put into use, currently providing
the Use stage are service, or discarded or dissipated over time. Material flow analysis characterizes and
small, and not These types of metal stocks in society can quantifies flows of materials into, out of, and
indicated here. be appreciated with the help of the life-cycle through a system of interest, equating flows
diagram of Figure 1. Metal ores are mined at each reservoir within the system by con-
from the ground, processed into the metal servation of mass. In this analysis, the choice
12
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
13
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
14
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
the metal content of in-use final product bottom-up approaches. As with the top-down
group I (see Appendix 1), and A is the number method, most data collected are interpreted
of different types of final goods. as being representative of a year time peri-
od. In this case though, the data are of stock
A existent during a year instead of the rate of
- Outflowt )+ So St = ∑ Nit mit flow per year. Also in similarity with the data
i collected for the top-down approach, data
collected for the bottom-up approach are of-
More complicated versions of the bottom-up ten constrained by geopolitical boundaries.
method keep the same formulation of Equa- However, this constraint is often not as strict
tion 2, but allow for more precise definitions for bottom-up methods, because stock-rele-
of the good categories and metal contents. vant (e. g., houses or cars) data are frequently
available at the city/town or lower level of ag-
The types of available data also have a sig- gregation.
nificant effect on the system boundaries of
Disassembly
In these cases, where high spatial resolution Metals are rarely used in the pure form, but
and good count data for Nit are acquired, pre- rather in alloys. From a thermodynamic point
cision in determining metal content becomes of view and from the economic perspective, it
the limitation. For many new final goods be- is not always feasible to “un-mix” the alloy to
ing input into use, such as machinery, elec- their metallic constituent. For noble metals
tronics, and cars, metal content can be (gold, platinum group metals, copper, lead
measured or obtained from manufacturers. for example), the recycling can produce the
Goods such as buildings are more difficult metal at high purity level. In contrast, nick-
because they are less of a mass-produced el and chromium in stainless steel alloys will
commodity. However, using the metal con- be recycled as stainless steel, but no nick-
tent of new goods to infer the metal content el will be produced (see Figure 2). In order
of in-use stock can be problematic, because to report the stock of nickel, it is desirable to
in-use stock contains an amalgam of stock express stock as divided among the principal
vintages that have been accumulated over uses such as batteries & catalysts, low alloy
time. For example, applying the copper con- steels, etc. Bottom-up studies are capable
tent of a newly built house to a house built of doing this, and some of these studies are
in the 1950s would yield a misleading result. quite detailed in this regard (e. g., Rostkowski
Alleviation of this data problem may prove to et al., 2007).
be difficult as it would require either a statis-
tically significant regime of sampling of the The above procedures do not apply to stocks
metal content of in-use stock, or a significant of metals below the ground, either in virgin
historical investigation of engineering design ores or in landfills. For the former, it is nec-
plans for various goods. essary to rely on information from test drill-
ings supplemented and interpreted by geo-
Although both methods seek to measure the logical theory. In the case of landfills, the
same quantity, they work in fundamental- data are so sparse that rough estimates are
ly different ways, and current datasets and made based on calculations of discard of
technology are more appropriate for some end-of-life products combined with informa-
goals than others. Inherent in the top-down tion on the amount of recycled metal used
method is evolution over time. As a result, over time.
that approach is often employed where in-
flow/outflow time series data are available.
Because the top-down method is, to some
extent, a more derived estimate of stock than
the bottom-up method, it could be viewed as
less precise. However, the bottom-up method
is hindered by the inability to count everything
in use, and from uncertainties as to the metal
content of many of the units being included in
the assessment. This trade-off must be con-
sidered in the context of the study goal. If a
more detailed and spatially explicit analysis is
desired, then the bottom-up method is likely
to be more desirable. If less detail is accept-
able, and larger temporal and spatial scale is
the focus, then the top-down method may be
the more appropriate method to employ.
16
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Table 1. Metal Number of Percent of Global per MDC per LDC per
estimates all estimates capita stock capita stockb capita stockc
Extant In-Use
Metal Stock Aluminum 9 7.4 80 350 – 500 35
Estimations
for the Major Copper 34 27.0 35 – 55 140 – 300 30 – 40
Engineering
Metalsa Iron 13 10.7 2200 7000 – 14000 2000
a The years of the determinations in Tables 1 – 3 vary, but most are for the period 2000 – 2006. The units of per capita stock are
kg of metal in most cases, but g of metal for cadmium, gold, mercury, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and silver. The total
number of estimates is 124.
b The more-developed countries (MDC) used in this calculation are Australia, Canada, the European Union EU15, Norway,
Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States (altogether about 860 million people in 2005).
c The less-developed countries (LDC) used in this calculation consist of all countries except those in the “more-developed”
category (altogether about 5620 million people in 2005).
17
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
and one for the aggregate of all types of steel a bottom-up basis. The locales are diverse:
(a mixture that is roughly 95 % iron). Geo- Stockholm, Vienna, New Haven, Cape Town,
graphically, an overwhelming majority of the Beijing, and Sydney. There are still too few
estimates concern more-developed coun- bottom-up studies to evaluate the accuracy of
tries. On a global basis, top-down estimates this approach, although where comparisons
for in-use stocks exist for only four of these of results can be made, they appear reason-
elements: aluminium, copper, iron, and lead. able. At the city level, it is possible to allo-
The per capita stock of iron is largest, as cate the stock on a spatial basis, and this has
befits its high rate of flow into use; alumini- been done for Cape Town and Sydney.
um’s stock is slightly larger than that of
copper, and that for lead is significantly Anthropogenic stock estimates exist for five
lower. (Global values are generated by divid- precious metals, as shown in Table 2; most
ing total estimated in-use stock by global are for more developed countries. The excep-
population. The results should not be inter- tion is silver, for which a rather poorly docu-
preted as suggesting equivalent per capita mented global estimate exists.
in-use stocks around the world; most stocks
clearly reside in more-developed countries.)
Table 2. Metal Number of Percent of Global per MDC per LDC per
estimates all estimates capita stock capita stockb capita stockc
Extant In-Use
Metal Stock Gold 2 1.6 35 – 90
Estimations
for Precious
Palladium 2 1.6 1 – 4
Metals.a
Platinum 2 1.6 1 – 3
a The years of the determinations in Tables 1 – 3 vary, but most are for the period 2000 – 2006. The units of per capita stock are
kg of metal in most cases, but g of metal for cadmium, gold, mercury, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and silver. The total
number of estimates is 124.
b The more-developed countries (MDC) used in this calculation are Australia, Canada, the European Union EU15, Norway,
Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States (altogether about 860 million people in 2005).
c The less-developed countries (LDC) used in this calculation consist of all countries except those in the “more-developed”
category (altogether about 5620 million people in 2005).
Few stock estimates are available on a re- For the “specialty metals” (those used in
gional basis - only aluminium for Europe, more modest quantities than the major engi-
copper for North America and Europe, and neering metals, particular for unique physical
stainless steel for several. The stock evalua- or chemical properties), Table 3 gives the an-
tions are all quite recent, and appear reason- thropogenic stock estimates. Twelve different
ably reliable. On a country basis, data exist metals are listed, none with more than three
for Japan, USA, Australia, and several Euro- determinations. The only global estimate in
pean countries. this group is for cadmium; it is seriously out
of date and cannot be regarded with confi-
Urban-level evaluations have been performed dence. In a recent unpublished presentation,
for several metals and several cities, all on Halada (2008) described a top-down esti-
18
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
mate of in-use stocks for some 20 elements One feature of the limited data is that there
in Japan; he found that the Japanese in-use appear to be significant differences at
stocks of gold, indium, silver, tin, and tanta- present in the per capita in-use stock of the
lum were 10 – 20 % of estimated virgin re- more-developed and less-developed coun-
serves of those metals, indicating the impor- tries. Additionally, when measured at differ-
tance of enhanced reserach efforts for these ent spatial levels suburban residents appear
less-abundant metals. to have larger per capita in-use stock than
do urban or especially rural residents, al-
For the more-developed countries, there is though this is an observation that needs input
sufficient information in Table 1 to compute from future research on in-use stock varia-
an average person’s allocation of in-use tions. Given the obvious wealth discrepan-
metal stock. Doing so demonstrates the cies, these results seem qualitatively reason-
dependence of modern lifestyles on a sub- able, but much work remains to be done to
stantial stock of metal, a perspective espe- better understand stocks from a spatial (or
cially useful because few individuals are spatial analytical level) perspective. An addi-
aware of their share of metals in infrastruc- tional factor is that taking into account an en-
tures such as communications, rail networks, tire nation may increase the per capita in-use
and power generation and distribution stock due to infrastructure and other in-use
systems, as well as in their personal homes final goods that occur only in sparsely pop-
and vehicles. The average more-developed ulated areas. Such final goods may include
country citizen’s in-use metal stock is be- ships, large trucks, heavy industrial equip-
tween ten and fifteen metric tons. Of this ment, offshore drilling equipment, railways,
amount, five metals – iron, aluminium, military hardware, and aircraft.
copper, zinc, and manganese, make up more
than 98 %.
Table 3. Metal Number of Percent of Global per MDC per LDC per
estimates all estimates capita stock capita stockb capita stockc
. Extant In-Use
Metal Stock Antimony 1 0.8 1
Estimations
for Specialty Cadmium 3 2.5 40 80
Metals.a
Chromium 3 2.5 7 – 50
Cobalt 1 0.8 1
Magnesium 1 0.8 5
Mercury 1 0.8 10
Molybde- 1 0.8 3
num
Tin 2 1.6 3
Titanium 1 0.8 13
Tungsten 1 0.8 1
20
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
21
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Figure 3.
A schematic
diagram of the
methodology
for calculating
outflows from
in-use stocks.
Outflows (if recycled) from in-use stock rep- It is important to mention that the potential
resent a resource that decreases the require- recyclability of the several individual outflows
ments for mining of virgin material (as well can be quite different. For example, the re-
as the associated environmental consequenc- covery efficiency of copper from infrastruc-
es). Although the amount of outflow (the “sec- ture is much more efficient than from elec-
ondary material”) that is supplied to smelters tronics. In the recycling report of this work-
and refiners is generally measured, the out- ing group (to be completed), these issues will
flow itself is not, so must be computed. be addressed in some detail. In most uses,
some metal is lost to the environment by
The outflow computation requires dynam- processes such as dissipation or corrosion.
ic information on inflows over a number of The amounts are quite small relative to other
years, plus estimates of the fractions of that flows, however (e. g., Wang et al., 2007; Mao
flow entering each of the major uses, plus et al., 2008), and can be neglected for pur-
estimates of the average lifetimes of those poses of assessing metal stocks in society.
uses, as shown in Figure 3.
22
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
23
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Figure 4.
Information
availability on
in-use stocks of
metals.
Anthropogenic metal stock estimation has ■■ Scrap generation rate predictions (nation-
the potential to address several interesting al, regional, global), and the virgin mate-
and pertinent questions concerning the fu- rial demand offset that this scrap would
ture of metal use in society and associated provide
environmental impacts, such as:
■■ Stimulating the development of effective
■■ Patterns in the way different societies or public policy to increase collection and
nations use, accumulate, and discard met- recovery.
al that is relevant to investigating future
demand scenario Given the very wide spectrum of metal use in
modern technology, it is noteworthy that for
■■ The comparative quality and amount of only about a third of the metals do we have
metal in natural and anthropogenic stocks, any metal stock in society information at all,
and the potential of this information to in- and for perhaps only five or six do we know
form discussions large-scale mining of enough to feel relatively comfortable with the
cities? quantification (Figure 4). Additionally, it is
rare to nonexistent that any dynamic infor-
■■ Ways in which the scale of environmental mation is available; most stock estimates are
impacts from dissipative uses (corrosion, no more than “snapshots in time”. Dynamic
wear, etc.) change with increasing popula- stock information has the potential to reveal
tion growth and affluence? much useful information about the evolution
of resource use, and should be actively pur-
sued (see, for example, Månsson et al., 2009).
24
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
There are what seem to be obvious gaps in lated to such factors as the average lifetimes
the information available for materials used of different products groups and the elemen-
in large quantities. For example, there ap- tal compositions of buildings and equipment,
pears to exist no global estimate for zinc which have significant but poorly determined
stocks in society. Neither are there global variability. Some researchers (e. g., Ros-
stock estimates for the major alloying metals tkowski et al., 2007) have discussed potential
chromium, manganese, nickel, and tin, and sources of error in these studies. It is thought
only a few at country level for these metals. that recent stock estimates are accurate to
The stocks of magnesium, a light metal see- perhaps +/- 25 %, and such accuracies are
ing increasing use in reduced-weight vehi- perfectly adequate bases on which to base
cles, have been evaluated only in Japan. For public policy.
uranium and zirconium, necessary elements
for nuclear power, there are no extant stock An avenue of research yet to be extensive-
estimates at all. ly explored is that of spatially-explicit in-use
stock estimation. van Beers and Graedel
Anthropogenic stock estimates of the spe- (2007) have shown in a bottom-up study that
cialty metals are almost nonexistent. This relatively fine spatial resolution can be ob-
situation is partly due to lack of data, partly to tained through the utilization of GIS and spa-
lack of interest in such studies in the past few tially-explicit stock and population data. A re-
decades. One might target for attention the cent study by Terakado et al. (2009) attempt-
lanthanides (separately or as a group), which ed to estimate the spatial distribution of the
see extensive use in electronics and medical in-use stock of copper in Japan by utiliza-
equipment, and indium, an element essen- tion of nocturnal light images from satellite.
tial at present for flat-panel displays, and one This appears to be the first effort to exploit
perceived to be under supply pressure as it the combination of GIS and remote sensing
is only available as a byproduct of zinc ore for inferring in-use metal stock. Such work
processing (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems could be advantageous, as the results could
and Innovation Research, 2009). be linked with other spatial attributes useful
to decision makers.
Another obvious area of need is anthropo-
genic stock studies focused on less-devel- It is worth noting that a variety of spatial
oped countries. The gaps between the stocks boundaries have been the subject of anthro-
of those countries and those of more-devel- pogenic stock studies, and one could ask
oped countries have much to tell us about what makes the choice of a city or any other
potential future demands for resources, but geopolitical border appropriate for a stock
little effort is underway to fill those knowl- study? The answer depends on the problem
edge gaps. for which the in-use stock estimate is to be
used. If one seeks to create a map of in-use
Quantification of metal stocks in society is stock for the purpose of providing insight into
limited by the availability of data in most cas- future scrap flows, then a geopolitical or any
es. Information on flows into use is generally other sort of spatial boundary seems appro-
better than on flows out of use. Were govern- priate. Similarly, city boundaries are useful
ments to routinely collect discard, recycling, in employing in-use stock studies to estimate
and waste data, in-use stock estimates could dissipative outflows (e. g., Sörme and La-
be significantly improved. gerkvist, 2002; McKenzie et al., 2009) How-
ever, if one seeks to infer conclusions about
It is notable that very few studies of in-use population affluence via in-use stock, a sys-
stocks make any attempt to discuss or esti- tem that (such as city borders) is too small
mate uncertainty. Unlike laboratory systems might be inappropriate for some metals. For
where uncertainty can be rather precisely example, a small spatial boundary might be
determined, in-use stock uncertainty is re- appropriate for a metal which is mostly con-
25
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
tained in residential buildings, but not for All potential applications of in-use stock in-
metals which have significant stocks in in- formation can benefit from significant im-
frastructure or manufacturing equipment provements in the science of producing in-
that could be outside of the city border. Even use stock estimates. First, the overall meth-
if a spatial boundary as large as a country is odology would benefit from a blending of the
chosen, stocks in a different country or con- top-down and bottom-up methods, incorpo-
tinent, such as manufacturing equipment, rating the detail of bottom-up methods with
could still be thought of as being used by the the temporal aspect of top-down methods.
population in the system boundary. The same (Only one study that compares results of both
is true of metal in potentially mineable tail- methods in a specific location (China in 2005;
ings. The answer could be to consider these Wang et al., 2009) is known to us. It is en-
as “hidden” stocks, much as the concept of couraging that the methods give very similar
hidden flows has been developed in the ma- results.) Second, the regional specificity must
terial flow analysis literature (Adriaanse et increase. A large majority of the studies re-
al., 1997). viewed are from developed countries, whose
values are not representative of developing
All of the gaps discussed above are unlikely countries. Third, spatial resolution and great-
to be filled very soon unless more research- er disaggregation of final goods categories
ers become involved and unless more finan- will become increasingly important for some
cial support for their efforts is forthcom- end-users. And fourth, a common focus for
ing. At present, nearly all the anthropogen- future research is a more directed approach
ic stocks research is occurring in one small to quantifying and communicating uncertain-
group each in Japan and the USA, and occa- ty and validation of results. These four re-
sional efforts by groups in Europe. The scale search foci have the potential to concentrate
of the need clearly outweighs the resources research time and resources where they will
and staff currently striving to fill that need. make the highest impact.
26
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
8. Conclusions
This report brings together the extant in-
formation on stocks of metals in society. In
some cases, a good deal of consistency is
shown to exist. In other cases, it is clear that
the stocks have yet to be well characterized.
A review of potential users makes it clear that
in-use stock information by itself has limit-
ed utility. It is when this information is used
to generate scenarios of future use intensi-
ty, discard, and reuse, with good spatial and
temporal resolution and final good disaggre-
gation, that its value is manifest. Such data
and scenarios are now beginning to appear.
In providing perspective and relative magni-
tudes, the results here thus are of inherent
use as they stand, but they point as well to a
large challenge ahead – to do a better job of
evaluating stocks and their rates of growth
and decay, and to use that information to
make informed inferences about the future.
Only by so doing can a fully adequate picture
be created of the rich “anthropogenic mines”
that have the potential to be tapped as sourc-
es of metal for the uses of modern society.
27
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
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Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
29
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Appendices
The Appendices for this paper consists of two construction means that 25% of aluminum
tables. The first provides background infor- inflow will go into building and construction.
mation for each metal in the study. The head-
ings of these tables are defined as follows: Estimated residence time: Amount of time (in
years) that a metal will remain in stock be-
Metal: Scientific abbreviation of element (ex- fore being discarded. Values are taken from
cept for steel and stainless steel, which are the literature. In the case where a value could
denoted by ST and SS, respectively) not be obtained, a dash is used.
Reservoir: A category which groups a collec- The second table provides information on
tion of related final goods in which a metal each in-use stock estimate collected from
resides in-use. the literature.
30
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
31
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
32
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
33
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
34
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
35
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
36
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
37
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
Al UK 1968 52 kg (21)
38
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
39
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
40
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
41
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
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Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
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Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
47
Metal Stocks in Society – Scientific Synthesis
The establishment of UNEP’s Internation- The Global Metal Flows Working Group aims
al Panel for Sustainable Resource Man- at contributing to the promotion of reuse and
agement, or Resource Panel for short, is a recycling of metals and the establishment of
first step towards addressing this need. The an international sound material-cycle society
Resource Panel was officially launched in by providing scientific and authoritative
November 2007 and aims to provide the sci- assessment studies on the global flows of
entific impetus for decoupling economic metals. Expected results include revealing
growth and resource use from environmental potentials for increasing the resource
degradation. efficiency of metal flows at the national and
international level.
The objectives of the Resource Panel are to
provide independent, coherent and authorita-
tive scientific assessments of policy relevance
on the sustainable use of natural resources
and in particular their environmental impacts
over the full life cycle as well as to contribute
to a better understanding of how to decou-
ple economic growth from environmental
degradation.
48
About the UNEP Division of Technology,
Industry and Economics
ISBN: 978-92-807-3082-1
DTI/1264/PA