Ranges (Up till 11.

55am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0980-94

EURJPY

132.41-525

USDJPY

121.63-75

EURGBP

0.7153-59

GBPUSD

1.5207-20

USDSGD

1.4053-72

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9949-57
0.7135-58

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.55-58
1136.4-1138.9

NZDUSD

0.6599-0.6618

USDTWD

32.385-685

USDCAD

1.3158-75

USDCNH

6.3550-6.3790

AUDNZD

1.0801-32

XAU

1105-1108.7

Key Headlines

The offshore USDCNH created some excitement

this morning. Spot got smacked from 6.3760
down to 6.3550 real quick. It was later
confirmed intervention through one Chinese
bank (think was in Hong Kong).
NFP: CIBC Research is looking at +175k versus
general consensus of +185k. Previous month was
+142k. Jobless rate should stay unchanged at
5.1% versus consensus of 5.0%.
Watch Euro dangerous if above 1.0900.

FX Flows
Asia had a slow session ahead of NFP. CIBC Research is
looking at +175k versus general consensus of +185k.
Previous month was +142k. Jobless rate should stay
unchanged at 5.1% versus consensus of 5.0%.

Nothing much to pen on UsdCad oil futures are touch

lower but having no impact on Canadian dollar.
Hovering below the 50-day SMA 1.3167. Offers from real
money up above 1.3195 and bids below 1.3140.

Asians
The offshore USDCNH created some excitement this
morning. Spot got smacked from 6.3760 down to 6.3550
real quick but onshore USDCNY was pretty much
unchanged. At the same time, back-end forward points
bid up hence thus market thought it was just pure
liquidation.
Several hours later, truth came out. The move was
actually intervention. The word is out that one Chinese
bank (think based in Hong Kong) was hitting several US
banks in clips at same time selling through e-portals.
The USDCNH move had tiny impact on some Usd/Asia
pairs. By end of morning we were back to we started.

Who said what

RBA published its quarterly update on Statement of

Monetary Policy today; highlighting earlier rate cuts and
weaker Aussie dollar supporting economic growth. RBA
cuts end 2015 GDP forecast to 2.25%v from 2.5%. Aud
was pretty much unchanged but weaker versus the Kiwi.
Offers are reported above 0.7190 while bids from
exporters 0.7070-80.

Believe it or not, EurUsd had a tight range since NY

closed. Be reminded of stops above 1.0900 with several
guys. Stops belong to short-term intraday accounts. I
heard more stops near 1.0950 and buy orders are mostly
below 1.0825.

UsdJpy is caught between Fed and the exporters.

Speculators want to buy the pair on dips as we move into
Dec Fed decision. Exporters, on the other hand,
scattered their offers up to 122.00. Hearsay retail guys
are also taking profit. Ssome systematic guys have lined
up stop buy above 122.10 (those breakout artists). 100day SMA now at 121.78.

RBA: Low Inflation "May Afford" Scope To Cut

Rates If Needed
RBA: Earlier Rate Cuts, Lower A$, Supporting
Economic Growth
RBA: Unemployment Forecasts Unchanged
RBA: Cuts Mid-2016 Core CPI Forecast To 1.5%2.5% From 2%-3%
RBA: Cuts Near-Term CPI and Core Inflation
Forecasts
RBA: Cuts End-2015 GDP Forecast to 2.25%
From 2.5%
China Premier Li: Moving economy from
investment-driven to consumer-led model is
painful, hard process
China Vice Finance Minister Zhu: To closely
watch Dec Fed meeting
China Vice Finance Minister Zhu: Possible Fed
may start rate normalization in Dec
Japan Aso: TPP not a place to discuss FX
Japan Aso: TPP statement on FX does not have
binding force
Japan PM Abe: Wants Chinese government to
steadily implement structural reforms
Japan PM Abe: Excessive Jpy strength has been
corrected
Japan PM Abe: Japan on the verge of exiting
deflation

News & Data

Australia Oct AiG Performance of Construction

Index up 52.1 from 51.9
China Oct Retail Auto Sales up 11.3% Y/Y

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

AFR: RBA backs jobs and spending to spur

economic growth
With no sign of a near-term recovery in non-mining
business investment and with our major trading partners
at below average growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia
is pinning its hopes on stronger employment and
consumer spending to maintain its forecast of moderate
growth over the coming year. The central bank's latest
forecasts for the Australian economy, published in its
quarterly statement on monetary policy on Friday, show
the economy accelerating gently from a sub-par growth
of 2.25 per cent this year to around 3 per cent in 2016.
The above average consumer spending growth expected
in 2016 is expected to be assisted by solid employment
growth powered by the expansion of the more labour
intensive parts of the economy.
http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/alanmitchell/rba-backs-jobs-and-spending-to-spureconomic-growth-20151105-gkrya4
FT: Brussels sounds alarm on Spain and France
budget deficits
Spain will miss its budget deficit target by an even wider
margin than previously thought, the European
Commission warned on Thursday, dealing a political
blow to Madrid just weeks before the start of a crucial
election campaign. Brussels also raised the alarm over
Frances fiscal position, saying Paris is on course to miss
its deficit targets this year, next year and in 2017.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/518c1c04-83ce-11e58095-ed1a37d1e096.html#axzz3qZFGk2Q6
WSJ: Oil Slump Forces Deep Cuts by Service
Providers
Oil-field service companies are slashing costs amid an
industry-rattling fall in crude prices, and no cut is too
smallsuch as using white paint instead of yellow on
underwater equipment. Its not big money, said
Hallvard Hasselknippe, president of subsea at Technip
SA, noting that adding pigment to make the industry
standard yellow paint is more expensive. There are
many examples like this. The companies now are
looking to standardize equipment, specifications and
processes and to link with other industry players to save
money. In some cases, they want to lower costs enough
to convince oil companies to revive projects they had put
on ice.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-slump-forces-deepcuts-by-service-providers-1446766074?
mod=wsj_nview_latest

is whether the economic data cooperate. The Fed looks

at a broad panorama of indicators when making its
decisions, but there is little doubt that the next two jobs
reports are critical with Octobers readout due on
Friday at 8.30am eastern standard time.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2220c87c-83f9-11e58e80-1574112844fd.html?ftcamp=published_links
%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3qZFGk2Q6
Stuff News: Government's deficit shows small
improvement over Budget night forecasts
The Government's Budget deficit has improved slightly,
thanks mainly to lower ACC insurance costs and an uptick in the tax take. The books for the three months to
the end of September - the first update since the May
Budget - showed the deficit before gains and losses
(Obegal) was in the red by $545 million for the three
months. That was $253m lower than forecast in the
Budget, Treasury said.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70809585/
governments-deficit-shows-small-improvement-overbudget-night-forecasts
Telegraph - It's official: the Bank of England
doesn't always get it right
The Bank of Englands forecasting record on
unemployment and medium-term prospects for the UK
and global economy has been criticised in a new report.
The analysis, published by the Banks Independent
Evaluation Office (IEO) on Thursday, found relatively
large unemployment rate forecast errors in the Banks
projections, as well as a tendency for some two-year
ahead projections to be less accurate than one-year
forecasts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-ofengland/11978517/Its-official-the-Bank-of-Englanddoesnt-always-get-it-right.html

FT: What to watch in the US jobs report

The US Federal Reserve has done what it can to prime
the global markets for the possibility of an increase in
short-term interest rates next month. The question now
These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.