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Vol. 13, No. 216 / November 5, 2015

The latest trade data conrmed what we already suspected,
export volumes in September were sharply lower, leaving more product
to be absorbed in domes c channels and adding to the downward price
pressures for beef and chicken. There are a number of factors that have
nega vely impacted US exports but we think the primary drivers are: a)
the strong US dollar; b) bird u restric ons; c) weaker demand in emerging markets due to slow or even nega ve growth; d) increased compe on from other supplying countries as well as overall expansion in global
supplies due to lower input costs. Below are the export highlights for
thethree main species:
Beef: Total exports of fresh/frozen and prepared beef in September
were 55,509 MT, 24.1% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest monthly
export volume since January. The slide in US beef exports reects a drama c decline in demand from two key markets: Japan and Hong Kong.
Exports of fresh/frozen and cooked beef to the Japanese market were
just 12,602 MT, 38% lower than a year ago. This follows a 39% decline in
export volume in August. The strong US dollar certainly has been an
impediment but it does not fully explain the erosion in Japanese demand.
A er all, Japan purchases of Australian beef, the other major supplier to
this market, were down 22.5% in August, 8.5% in September and 7.1% in
October. Rather, we think part of the reason is that prices for compe ng
meats have declined drama cally, impac ng beef demand. Beef exports
to Hong Kong were 7,552 MT, down 36% from a year ago. The decline in
shipments to Japan and Hong Kong explains about 2/3 of the overall drop
in US beef exports in September.
Pork: US pork exports rebounded in September, in line with the seasonal
increase in pork supplies. The increase was a bit larger than earlier speculated and we noted a signicant increase in pork exports to China. As
we have noted in the past, it is interes ng to point our that the weekly
pork exports somehow con nue to miss the volume of pork that goes to
China. Total exports of fresh/frozen and processed pork in September
were 138,400 MT, 17.5% higher than a year ago and the largest monthly
export volume since June. Exports to China in September were 10,086
MT compared to just 2,319 MT last year. However, keep in mind that in
September 2013 pork exports to China were 16,882 MT. Pork exports to
Japan were 31,589 MT, 22.5% higher than the same period a year ago but
at about the same level as in September 2013.
Chicken: Resump on of trade with South Korea certainly is welcome
news for the US chicken industry, which has struggled with stunted export markets this past summer. Total exports of fresh/frozen chicken
meat in September were 212,613 MT, down 58,422MT(-21.6%) from a
year ago. At the same me, chicken produc on in September was up
5.4% higher than last year. Exports to China, South Korea and Angola
were down a combined 21,808 MT (-57%) from last year. Bird u bans, a
strong US dollar and higher global output have impacted chicken trade.

US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS FRESH/FZ

metric ton

Source: FAS/USDA based on US Census Monthly Data

90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

40,000

US PORK EXPORTS: FRESH/FZ/PREPARED

metric ton

Source: FAS/USDA based on US Census Monthly Data

180,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

170,000

160,000

150,000

140,000

130,000

120,000

110,000

metric ton

US CHICKEN EXPORTS: FR/FROZ, METRIC TON

Source: FAS/USDA based on US Census Monthly Data

320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

180,000

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