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TOPLINES Questions 1-13 and 15 25 previously released.

[ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS]


14A. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in
2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held
today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-15]

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Someone else
Wouldnt vote/ Dont
know
No answer

11.1517.15
RV
4
18
3
18
3
2
1
2
2
NA
11
1
28
NA
2
6

10.2729.15
RV
5
26
2
10
4
2
2
2
NA
9
26
NA
1
8

10.1315.15
RV
5
23
2
6
6
3
1
3
2
NA
9
28
NA
2
7

9.1718.15 RV

8.78.15 RV

7.1319.15 RV

4.68.15 RV

8
14
3
7
11
2
2
1
3
NA
7
29
3
2
6

7
10
1
14
8
1
5
1
2
5
1
8
22
7
1
6

9
8
3
6
2
NA
1
5
1
3
6
2
8
1
22
10
2
11

12
7
8
7
NA
NA
1
6
2
2
NA
7
3
6
NA
NA
12
5
21

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey Online Poll was conducted online November 15-17, 2015 among a
national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey
were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on
the SurveyMonkey platform each day.
Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureaus American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap
confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate
5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average.
When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into
consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin
of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent
of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points,
Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as
high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."
The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been
calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an
even split in most groupings (such as gender):

Group
Total sample

Unweighted N
Plus or minus
5755
1.9 percentage points

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2440
1983

2.9 percentage points


3.1 percentage points

18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

996
1167
2566
1026

4.3 percentage points


4.3 percentage points
2.8 percentage points
4.4 percentage points

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

4440
377
461
477

2.1 percentage points


6.5 percentage points
6.3 percentage points
6.4 percentage points