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DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Una familia importante de distribuciones usadas en el anlisis de
frecuencia hidrolgico es la distribucin general de valores
extremos, la cual ha sido ampliamente utilizada para representar el
comportamiento de crecientes y sequas (mximos y mnimos).
Funcin de densidad:
donde
son la media y la desviacin estndar estimadas
con la muestra.
Factor de frecuencia:
y
o
A continuacin, el coeficiente de asimetra C
calcular como sigue:
se puede
estimacin de la estacin, lo que significa que la estimacin incorpora los valores de datos slo de la estacin de
medicin de inters.
= WC s + (1-W) C
dnde
A
A
B
B
=
=
=
=
INTRODUCTION
GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION
An important family of distributions used in hydrological frequency
analysis is the general extreme values distribution, which has been
widely used to represent the behavior of floods and droughts
(maximum and minimum).
DENSITY FUNCTION:
Where a and b are parameters of the distribution.
ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS.
Where
FREQUENCY FACTOR:
What is it?
The Log-Pearson Type III distribution is a statistical technique for
fitting frequency distribution data to predict the design flood for a
river at some site. Once the statistical information is calculated
for the river site, a frequency distribution can be constructed.
The probabilities of floods of various sizes can be extracted from
the curve. The advantage of this particular technique is that
extrapolation can be made of the values for events with return
periods well beyond the observed flood events. This technique is
the standard technique used by Federal Agencies in the United
States.
How is it calculated?
The Log-Pearson Type III distribution is calculated using the
general equation:
and
or
Next, the skewness coefficient Cs can be calculated as follows:
where
A
A
B
B=
=
-0.33
+
0.08
=
-0.52
+
0.30
=
0.94
0.26
0.55 if | C s | > 1.50
|
|
|
C s|
if |
Cs |
C s | if |
Cs|
C s | if |
Cs|
0.90
or
>
0.90,
1.50
or
1. OBJETIVOS
1.1.
Objetivo General
Determinar el caudal mximo probable.
1.2.
Objetivos Especficos:
Determinar y graficar la curva de persistencia para los
periodos de retorno 2, 5, 10,2 5, 50, 100, 200 aos.
Comparar los mtodos de obtencin de caudales
mximos probables; mtodo de Gumbel y Log Pearson
Tipo III.
2. DESARROLLO
Los datos hidrogrficos
instalada en el rio Pilatn
de
estacin
UNIVERSIDAD TCNICA DE
AMBATO
FACULTAD DE INGENIERA
CIVIL Y MECNICA
DISEO HIDRAULICO
NOMBRE: TONATO PAZ
DARWIN PAL
SEMESTRE: 7 A
TABLA N 1
DATOS HIDROGRAFICOS RIO
PILATON
AO
QMAX
1964
93,952
1965
142,782
1966
95,749
1967
120,514
1968
74,694
1969
102,497
1970
117,392
1971
166,808
1972
106,126
1973
127,383
(QiQ)
7,060313
27
2650,924
04
19,83922
95
853,7572
66
275,5890
51
125,4876
05
681,0599
33
5702,232
05
219,9622
69
1302,352
77
hidrogrfica
1974
114,246
1975
145,418
1976
125,626
1977
83,913
1978
110,741
1979
92,235
1980
94,978
1981
122,437
1982
93,99
1983
105,28
1984
129,364
1986
22,144
1987
21,004
1988
18,593
1989
30,447
1990
50,552
1991
20,038
1992
267,792
1993
30,619
1994
30,104
526,7541
39
2929,312
66
1178,626
14
54,49207
85
378,1517
78
0,883835
02
13,56540
98
969,8319
5
7,263698
77
195,5837
21
1449,258
28
4781,843
51
4940,807
11
5285,562
63
3702,463
89
1659,981
86
5077,542
23
31151,23
51
3681,561
81
3744,323
1995
58,223
1996
13,874
1997
93,548
1998
105,37
2000
132,895
2001
77,727
2002
88,246
2003
74,508
2004
76,468
2005
73,518
=3651,7
95
2.1.
18
1093,748
92
5993,991
89
5,076572
27
198,1091
44
1730,570
4
184,0872
32
9,295638
77
281,7991
72
219,8362
22
316,0172
85
=93599,
842
MTODO DE GUMBEL
DATOS:
Q=91,29
m3 /s
n
( QiQ ) =93599,84
i=1
n=40
T =2
aos
FRMULAS A EMPLEAR:
S Q ( y y )
Qmx p =Q+
y
S Q=
( QiQ )
( ( ))
y =ln ln
T
T 1
i=1
(n1)
DESVIACION ESTANDAR:
S Q=
93599,84
(401)
S Q=48,99
2
(
( 21 ))
y =ln ln
y =0,36 6
Qmx p =91,29+
48,99
( 0.3660,54362 )
1,14131
Qmx p =83,66
m3
s
DATOS:
T
y%
2
0.37
5
1.50
10
2.25
T =5
25
3.20
aos
50
3.90
100
4.60
200
5.30
( ( ))
y =ln ln
5
51
y =1,5
Qmaxp =Q+
SQ
( y y )
y
Qmaxp =91,29+
48.99
( 1,500,54362 )
1,14131
Qmaxp =132,34
T
y%
Qmaxp
2
0.37
83.69
5
1.50
132.34
10
2.25
164.56
25
3.20
205.25
50
3.90
235.45
100
4.60
265.42
200
5.30
295.28
Q (m^3/s)
295,02
265,41
235,36
205,31
164,54
132,34
83,66
Mtodo de Gumbel
350
300
295.02
250
200
Caudal mximo probable (m3/s)
150
100
50
0
0
25
50
2.2.
APLICAR EL MTODO DE LOG PEARSON TIPO III
PROCESO;
O
OL
CO
m3 RAN
Qm x p
s GO
( )
AOS
(ORDEN
ADOS)
( )
m
Qm x p
s
(ORDENA
DOS DE
> a <)
93.952
1992
267.792
142.782
1971
166.808
95.749
1975
145.418
120.514
1965
142.782
74.694
2000
132.895
102.497
1984
129.364
117.392
1973
127.383
166.808
1976
125.626
106.126
1981
122.437
127.383
10
1967
120.514
114.246
11
1970
117.392
145.418
12
1974
114.246
125.626
13
1978
110.741
log 10 Q
2.42
8
2.22
2
2.16
3
2.15
5
2.12
4
2.11
2
2.10
5
2.09
9
2.08
8
2.08
1
2.07
0
2.05
8
2.04
4
)
( log Q logQ
) T=[(n+
( log Q logQ
3
1)/m]
Probab
de
ocurre
(1/T
0.299
0.164
41.000
0.02
0.117
0.040
20.500
0.04
0.080
0.022
13.667
0.07
0.075
0.021
10.250
0.09
0.059
0.014
8.200
0.12
0.053
0.012
6.833
0.14
0.050
0.011
5.857
0.17
0.048
0.010
5.125
0.19
0.043
0.009
4.556
0.22
0.040
0.008
4.100
0.24
0.036
0.007
3.727
0.26
0.031
0.006
3.417
0.29
0.027
0.004
3.154
0.31
83.913
14
1972
106.126
110.741
15
1998
105.37
92.235
16
1983
105.28
94.978
17
1969
102.497
122.437
18
1966
95.749
93.99
19
1980
94.978
105.28
20
1982
93.99
129.364
21
1964
93.952
22.144
22
1997
93.548
21.004
23
1979
92.235
18.593
24
2002
88.246
30.447
25
1977
83.913
50.552
26
2001
77.727
20.038
27
2004
76.468
267.792
28
1968
74.694
30.619
29
2003
74.508
30.104
30
2005
73.518
58.223
31
1995
58.223
13.874
32
1990
50.552
93.548
33
1993
30.619
2.02
6
2.02
3
2.02
2
2.01
1
1.98
1
1.97
8
1.97
3
1.97
3
1.97
1
1.96
5
1.94
6
1.92
4
1.89
1
1.88
3
1.87
3
1.87
2
1.86
6
1.76
5
1.70
4
1.48
0.021
0.003
2.929
0.34
0.020
0.003
2.733
0.36
0.020
0.003
2.563
0.39
0.017
0.002
2.412
0.41
0.010
0.001
2.278
0.43
0.009
0.001
2.158
0.46
0.009
0.001
2.050
0.48
0.009
0.001
1.952
0.51
0.008
0.001
1.864
0.53
0.007
0.001
1.783
0.56
0.004
0.000
1.708
0.58
0.002
0.000
1.640
0.61
0.000
0.000
1.577
0.63
0.000
0.000
1.519
0.65
0.000
0.000
1.464
0.68
0.000
0.000
1.414
0.70
0.000
0.000
1.367
0.73
0.013
-0.002
1.323
0.75
0.031
-0.006
1.281
0.78
0.156
-0.061
1.242
0.80
105.37
34
1989
30.447
132.895
35
1994
30.104
77.727
36
1986
22.144
88.246
37
1987
21.004
74.508
38
1991
20.038
76.468
39
1988
18.593
73.518
40
1996
13.874
7. Calcular la varianza=
6
1.48
4
1.47
9
1.34
5
1.32
2
1.30
2
1.26
9
1.14
2
PRO
MED
IO
1.88
1
logQ
n1
0.158
-0.063
1.206
0.82
0.162
-0.065
1.171
0.85
0.287
-0.153
1.139
0.87
0.312
-0.174
1.108
0.90
0.335
-0.194
1.079
0.92
0.374
-0.228
1.051
0.95
0.545
-0.403
1.025
0.97
3.467
-1.003
8. Calcular la S varianza
Varianza
Desviacin
estndar
Coeficiente de
sesgo
Q logQ
log 3
n
Cs=
0.088894
384
0.2981516
13
1.0215364
15
10.
Determinar los valores K para Cs= -1,02 mediante
interpolacin.
11.
Tr
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
Caudal (m3/s)
25
50
3. ANLISIS COMPARATIVO
Realizado el procedimiento adecuado para cada uno de los
mtodos se pudo obtener la siguiente tabla comparativa:
UNIVERSIDAD TCNICA DE AMBATO
FACULTAD DE INGENIERA CIVIL Y MECNICA
DISEO HIDRAULICO
NOMBRE: TONATO PAZ DARWIN PAL
TABLA N 4
LOG PEARSON TIPO
GUMBEL
III
Tr
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
m3
s
( )
85,21
136,25
164,27
192,82
209,78
223,64
235,17
m3
s
( )
83,66
132,34
164,54
205,31
235,36
265,41
295,02
GRFICO COMPARATIVO
295.02
235.17
Pearson Tipo III
Caudal probable (m3/s)
Gumbel
4. CONCLUSIONES
http://www./libros-gratis/2009b/564/DISTRIBUCION%20TEORICA
%20Y%20METODO%20DE%20GUMBEL.htm
http://fluidos.eia.edu.co/hidrologiai/probabilidad/probabilidad.htm