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Brief
The objective of this Assessment is to show the updated portfolio of mining projects in Chile, the
estimate of investments required to carry it out in the 2015- 2024 period, and the impact upon the
production capacity which the resulting productive contribution would have from the investing
processes which would be registered in the aforementioned period up to 2024.
The portfolio is made up of two groups of initiatives, the first of which correspond to those projects
with a greater probability of materializing in the timeframes indicated by the owning companies,
which are those in a base and probable condition, a total of 24 initiatives assessed in $31,345 million
USD.
Furthermore, the second group of projects corresponds to those in a possible and potential
condition, meaning mining investments with lesser probability of materializing in the time frames
established by the owners, as well as those prone to being affected by changes in market conditions,
which total 18 initiatives assessed in $45,945 million USD.
The most important part of this project portfolio is not the global value thereof, rather the
composition in terms of the number of initiatives, those driving them, their objectives, their
location, and the efforts being made to carry them out.
Upon analyzing the investments within the investment portfolio, three phases can be identified:
-
Investment already raised, which corresponds to $15,415 million USD, or 19.9% of the
current portfolio,
The investment to be raised during the next five year period, 2015-2019, for $44,894 million
USD, equaling 58.1% of the portfolio, with an average yearly investment of $8,979 million
USD,
The remainder to be invested in the 2020-2024 period, during which those projects whose
commissioning is anticipated to happen during that time have an investment total which
reaches $16,981 million USD, equaling 22% of the investment portfolio.
Within the investment to be raised during the next five year period, the project group with the base
and probable conditions make up 40% of the investment, with an average rate of $3,592 million
USD. Likewise the group of initiatives in possible and potential conditions make up the remaining
60%, with an annual investment average of $5,386 million USD.
This investment primarily seeks to increase the productive capacity, which translates into an
increase in the supply available to the international market.
In the case of copper, and considering the horizon through 20261, Chile has the potential to reach a
maximum copper production of 7.56 million tons of copper, 31.6% above the production registered
Two years after the last year of the commissioning thereof as registered in this portfolio.
in 2014, if all of the anticipated projects are carried out through 2024, wherein copper production
would reach approximately 7.84 million tons, a 36.3% increase over 2014 production.
It is worth noting that if only the initiatives with a base and probable condition are carried out, the
copper production of the country will fall by 6.4% to around 5.4 million tons of fine copper. If, to
this scenario, we add the materialization of the initiatives which are possible this would counteract
the loss in production, reaching 6.6 million tons of fine copper, a 15.4% production increase with
respects to 2014.
This increase in production would reflect a structural change in the type of final product of the
copper producing operations, as the maximum capacity of concentrate production would increase
by 2.84 million tons by 2026, a 72.7% increase from 2014, the production of SxEw cathodes would
diminish by 1.03 million tons, registering a decrease of 55.7% with respects to the same year.
In the case of gold, it is expected that by 2026 the maximum capacity of this metal could reach 80.5
tons of gold content, a 75% increase over the 46 tons registered in 2014, while the projects included
in this report with potential production of silver would reach 1,495 tpa of silver by 2026 over current
production, which in 2014, reached 1,572 tons of silver.
In the case of molybdenum, the principal by-product of copper mining, the maximum recovery
capacity of molybdenum will reach 95.6 thousand tpa by 2026, a 96% increase with respects to the
amount produced in 2014, which implies a yearly average rate of 5.3%.
The projects with primary production or by-production of iron considered in this report will
contribute 18.8mt of iron mineral by 2026, approximately 11.9 Mt of fine content, to reach a
maximum production of around 33.3 Mt of iron ore, which is an 80% increase with respects to the
quantity registered in 2014.
In the case of industrial minerals, there are two initiatives in the area of saltpeter, the first of which
would contribute 10,000 tpa of iodine equivalent, and around 1,293,000 tpa of NaNO3. The second
initiative would produce around 2,700 tpa of iodine, and 400,000 tpa of nitrates, including 20,000
tpa of boric acid.
It is interesting to point out that there is also an initiative to produce titanium dioxide (TiO2) at a
capacity which is estimated at 200 ktpa of concentrate (95% of TiO2).
Index
Brief. ....................................................................................................................................................1
Figure Index .........................................................................................................................................5
Table Index ..........................................................................................................................................6
1.
Introduction .................................................................................................................................7
2.
Methodology ...............................................................................................................................9
2.1. Coverage ..............................................................................................................................9
2.2. Project attributes and conditions for their realizaton .........................................................9
2.2.1. Conditions for materialization ................................................................................9
2.2.2. Project type ...........................................................................................................10
2.2.3. Stage of advancement ..........................................................................................11
2.2.4. Procedure for Environmental Evaluation Service (SEA)........................................11
2.2.5. Time frame for commissioning .............................................................................11
2.3. Codelcos investment and information sources ................................................................12
2.4. Private mining investment and information sources ........................................................13
2.5. Methodological critera to estimate the commissioning date ...........................................14
2.6. Production capacity estimate of copper mine ..................................................................14
3.
4.
5.
7.
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................54
Investment purpose...........................................................................................................55
Investment region..............................................................................................................55
2.
3.
4.
ANNEX 2: Description of the investment projects in gold and silver mining ....................................87
Chilean Copper Commission
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2.
3.
2.
3.
Figure Index
Figure 1: Distribution of the investment in Chilean mining, according to condition ........................ 17
Figure 2: Distribution of the investments in Chilean mining, according to project type .................. 20
Figure 3: Total investment of the investment portfolio per region, copper mining, and others ..... 21
Figure 4: Total investment of the investment portfolio according to originating country (MMUS$
and %)................................................................................................................................................ 24
Figure 5: Investment per year, realized and to be realized, of the project portfolio according to
type of mining ................................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 6: Projection of maximum copper production in SxEw cathodes, 2014-2026 period ........... 33
Figure 7: Projection of maximum copper production in concentrates, 2014-2026 period .............. 34
Figure 8: Production of copper in concentrates and the participation in total production ............. 35
Figure 9: Projection of maximum copper production in concentrates according to destination,
2014-2026 period .............................................................................................................................. 36
Figure 10: Projection of maximum production of tailings from the copper concentrating process,
2014 - 2026........................................................................................................................................ 37
Figure 11: Capacity for processing in copper concentrating plants up to 2026 ............................... 38
Figure 12: Relation between treated mineral and fine copper content in concentrate produced .. 39
Table Index
Table 1: Conditions to carry out a project......................................................................................... 10
Table 2: Register of mining projects in Chile 2015 2024 ................................................................ 16
Table 3: Distribution of the investments in Chilean mining per sector and condition of the
projects.............................................................................................................................................. 17
Table 4: Distribution of the investments in Chilean mining per sector and stage of advancement.18
Table 5: Distribution of the investment in Chilean mining according to area and processing before
the SEA .............................................................................................................................................. 19
Table 6: Distribution of the investment in Chilean mining per sector and project type .................. 20
Table 7: Investment in copper mining per region and project condition ......................................... 22
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron and industrial mineral mining, per region and project condition.23
Table 9: Distribution of the investment in cooper mining per originating country and condition
(MMUS$) ........................................................................................................................................... 25
Table 10: Investment in gold, iron, and industrial mineral mining, per originating country and
condition (MMUS$) ........................................................................................................................... 25
Table 11: Yearly distribution of the copper mining investment according to the project condition
(MMUS$) ........................................................................................................................................... 27
Table 12: Yearly distribution of the investment in gold, iron and industrial minerals according to
condition (MMUS$) ........................................................................................................................... 28
Table 13: Estimated production capacity of copper mining in Chile through 2026 (kt of fine Cu)... 30
Table 14: Estimated Chilean production capacity of fine copper in concentrate through 2026 (kt of
fine Cu) .............................................................................................................................................. 32
Table 15: Estimated Chilean production capacity of fine copper in SxEw cathodes through 2026
(Thousands of tons.).......................................................................................................................... 32
Table 16: Maximum regional productive capacity of copper mines in Chile through 2026
(thousands of tons of fine Cu) ........................................................................................................... 40
Table 17: Maximum regional productive capacity of fine copper concentrate through 2026
(thousands of tons) ........................................................................................................................... 41
Table 18: Maximum regional productive capacity of fine copper in SxEw cathodes through 2026
(thousands of tons) ........................................................................................................................... 42
Table 19: Contribution to maximum production capacity of gold and silver according to project .. 44
Table 20: Maximum production capacity of molybdenum according to project ............................. 45
Table 21: Estimate of new iron production capacities according to project .................................... 46
Table 22: Comparison of investment portfolios 2015 vs. 2014 ............Error! Marcador no definido.
Table 23: Comparison of portfolios 2015 and 2014 according to project condition ........................ 51
Table 24: Comparison of portfolios 2015 and 2014 according to type of mining ............................ 52
Table 25: Comparison of portfolios 2015 and 2014 according to type of mining and project
condition ........................................................................................................................................... 52
Table 26: Comparison of portfolios 2015 and 2014 at a regional level ............................................ 53
1. Introduction
The following report corresponds to a new update of the yearly report about investments in Chilean
mining for the next decade, which is part of a line of work carried out by the Chilean Copper
Commission and the Department of Studies and Public Policies for the past almost 10 years.
The information herein contained is on based on public records available through June 2015, having
the primary objective of providing pertinent information about the registry of mining projects which
are currently valid in Chile, with the following projection of the expected investment and the
potential capacity of mining production in Chile, considering the productive contribution which
results from the investment process during the next ten years.
The registration of the mining initiatives in this report does not assure they will materialize within
the terms and timeframes planned by the companies, however it shows the interest they have to
advance in their current mining activities, in the case of the companies with operations in Chile, or
to begin mining in our territory, having considered the geologic potential of the available mining
property as well as the economic and political perspectives in the country in the long term.
This report is structured in the following manner:
a)
Specification of the methodological criteria used for the elaboration of this report, showing
coverage, attributes which coincide with the condition that each project is in, with the
purpose of measuring the level of certainty of the available information, information
sources, criteria to estimate the start-up date if it is not readily available, and the estimate
of the copper production capacity and of that of other minerals in the long term.
b)
Analysis of the investment required for the copper mining project portfolio, as well as that
of gold, silver mining, iron mining, and that of some industrial minerals, with respects to the
conditionality of these initiatives, the purpose of the investment, the regional distribution
and the countries wherein the investments originate. The descriptive background of each
of the projects considered is included in Annex 1 (copper mining), Annex 2 (gold and silver
mining) and Annex 3 (industrial minerals: iodine, nitrates, potassium salts, and titanium
oxide,) respectively.
c)
An estimate of the investment flow coming from the project profile, indicating the amounts
already invested, the yearly flow during the next decade, and the amount to be invested
after the next five years. It is to be noted that this projection is only referential and does not
constitute a commitment with the companies which own the projects.
d)
Furthermore, and as a result of the investment process, the productive contribution of these
projects is shown, through projections of the maximum production capacity of the copper
mine, in concentrates such as SxEw cathodes, looking toward 2026 (two years after the last
start-up registered in this report) and focusing on the conditionality of the initiatives.
Additionally, a global estimate is given for the future production of gold, silver,
molybdenum, iron and the industrial minerals considered.
As in the case of the
Chilean Copper Commission
annualization of the investments, the production estimates are only referential based on
the methodologies and information sources described at the beginning of this document.
e)
As in the previous two years, a registry is made as a form of comparison of the changes
which have been registered between the current project portfolio and the previous,
showing variations in investment amounts as well as in the quantity of initiatives
considered. In this opportunity a vision is given on a level of the conditionality of the
projects, investment purpose, and comparison on a regional level of the changes produced.
Finally it concludes with the most relevant background information which can be taken from the
information given.
2. Methodology
The Methodology which is used for the confection of this register is based on the following criteria:
2.1.
Coverage
The project register covers the investments with productive purposes (reposition or expansion of
the production or new development) anticipated by CODELCO and the private companies of the
large and medium metal and non-metal mines, excluding energy minerals. Only projects with
investments which surpass 90 million dollars are included, as are those which are already being
carried out as well as those in which the companies are assessing and have the intention of initiating
the investment process within a five year period.
For the effects of the yearly distribution of the estimated investment for each project, included is
the sum of the investments already in place from the beginning of the project until the end of the
year prior to the present report under the concept of Before xxxx wherein xxxx corresponds to
the publication year of the report. Then the estimated investment is assigned for each year of the
next five year period. Similarly, for those projects which will begin operations after the next five
year period, it is presented as Investment after xxxx, wherein xxxx is the year after the last year
of the present five year period, for the accumulated investment which will be carried out until the
operations begin.
It is worth noting that the information compiled in this document is the best approximation known
of the projects being considered. In some cases, without other public information, the yearly
distribution of the investments are estimates of the authors and are not binding in any way for the
companies who own the projects.
The background information of each project includes an estimate of the production of metals which
they would supply, when it corresponds to such, as well as the indication of the current state of the
project.
2.2.
The information about the investment projects is characterized by the uncertainty due to the
quantity and quality of the background information available, which depends on the attributes of
the projects up to the date in which the registry is made.
2.2.1.
Each attribute has a degree to which it may be associated to a greater or lesser degree of certainty
and the combination of which will give a perception of the conditionality in which it is found to be
carried out. Therefore, there are 4 conditions defined: Basic, probable, possible, and potential, as
associated with the specific attributes which are detailed in Table 1:
10
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA process
Implementation
BASE
Any
Execution
RCA approved
Any
Execution suspended
RCA approved or in
judicial claims
Any
Feasibility
RCA approved
Reposition or expansion
Feasibility
Reposition or expansion
Feasibility suspended
Reposition or expansion
Feasibility
New
Feasibility
Any
Feasibility
RCA approved
Reposition or expansion
Feasibility
Any
Feasibility suspended
Any
New
Feasibility
Any
Pre-Feasibility
Any
Any
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
The attributes of a project are associated to their type, the stage of advance they are in, the status
of the processing before the SEA, and the estimated date of implementation. The explanation of
each is as follows:
2.2.2.
Project type
This attribute gives information about the degrees of certainty of the realization of an investment
project, as it relates to the strategic purpose of the Company and the lesser to higher complexities
they face for the implementation to be carried out. The categories are as follows:
a)
Replacement projects: Those wherein the investment is to maintain the productive capacity
of a current operation (brownfield) with new mining developments, to deal with a decline
in ore grades and/or depletion of sectors being mined. This allows the Company to prolong
the lifespan of the site and the use of the installations.
b)
Expansion projects: Those which seek to enlarge the current operational capacity
(brownfield), with the purpose of increasing the production scale and diminishing the
unitary costs, especially due to a decline in ore grades of the mining resources to be
exploited.
c)
New projects: Those located at a new deposit (greenfield), and have to begin everything:
the environmental and sector permissions, develop infrastructure, and settle into a new
Chilean Copper Commission
11
2.2.3.
Stage of advance
It is possible to estimate that to the degree that a project advances the certainty that it will be
carried out increases. Therefore the projects have been categorized, according to the stage they
are in:
a)
In Execution: The investment has been approved as well as has the corresponding
permissions for it to be carried out. It is already in one of the detailed engineering or
construction stages from the beginning to the implementation.
b)
Feasibility Assessment: Those which have already begun the feasibility studies and those of
environmental evaluation (EIA or DIA) or they may already have been finished, but the final
decision approving the investment has not been made.
c)
In Pre-feasibility Assessment: Those which are in the initial stage of pre-feasibility studies
until the decision is made to continue to the following stage.
Most of the projects follow a normal course, notwithstanding the modifications which are seen fit
to introduce, however, the advancement of a project may be affected by some type of suspension,
be it from internal situations or those outside of the companys control. Upon suspension, the
project stops advancing and in some cases will return to the previous stage to redo the studies and
thereby resolver the complications which have arisen be they internal or external.
2.2.4.
No project may be carried out without having the Environmental Qualification Resolution (RCA)
approved, which occurs after an exhaustive technical-administrative process which includes civic
participation, which is submitted to the declaration or the studies of the corresponding
environmental evaluation.
Therefore, three stages are shown, from most to least certainty:
a)
b)
c)
2.2.5.
RCA approved,
EIA or DIA in process
EIA or DIA nor presented
The level of certainty of the background information also depends on the proximity or length of time
from the date set for the implementation. The following ranges indicate a greater to lesser
certainty:
a)
b)
Within the period: Date within the period of analysis, or within the five-year period,
Outside of the period or Long-term: Date after the period of analysis, or outside of the fiveyear period.
Chilean Copper Commission
2.3.
12
The information sources about the investments projected by Codelco are based on public
information given by the corporation on their webpage, in presentations from the board of
directors, and are compiled primarily on the whole of information available from their Business and
Development Plan, and other official information of the Company received regularly by the Direction
of Evaluation of Investments and Strategic Management (DEIGE) of Cochilco, which assist in
supplying a better estimate. This information is to be understood as being only a prospective tool
and does not bind the public entities which would intervene in the evaluation of the investment
projects, which may or may not be considered in the projection2.
The investments considered by Codelco, are those which are contemplated in the 2015 Business
and Development Plan (PND 2015), justified as development projects or to increase the information
necessary for future developments.
The development projects are directly related with the productive future of the divisions and should
meet profitability norms to be approved. Of these are highlighted:
a)
Structural projects: a select group of the development projects conceived to take an integral
advantage of the mineral resources, and constitute the base for the development of the
corporation in the long term. The report of each of these projects gives explicit background
information of the characteristics and investment amounts for the implementation stage.
b)
Furthermore, Codelco justifies as informational projects those which allow them to acquire new and
relevant information for corporative development, but which are not broken down under a
particular investment project. Within this concept, the investments are grouped in studies for future
developmental projects (pre-feasibility, feasibility, environmental evaluation, etc.), the investment
in basic and generative exploration, and investments in I&D. Given the diversity of these purposes,
only a broad background of the financing requirements considered for this concept is given.
Before an investment can be confirmed, it is required that an Authorization of Investment Projects be carried out, during the
evaluation of which the Chilean Copper Commission and the Social Development Department work together. It does not include those
expenses which CODELCO treats as investments (Differed expenses and others) for which the aforementioned authorization is not
required. The fact that they are identified in the 2014 PND does not necessarily mean that they have the established investment
authorization which is required by the applicable regulations and does not bind the entities mentioned therein.
13
Among the projects included in this report the investments from the 2014 PND are not considered
which are justified with other objectives, such as the replacement of equipment, refurbishing of
installations, decontamination projects, workplace safety and well-being, even though they also
require an API to be carried out. This exclusion meets the purpose of making Codelcos information
comparable with the information for private investments, as this type of information from the
privately owned companies is not available.
Also excluded are those corporate investment which, for their nature, do not require an API and
which escape being covered in the present report. However it has been found pertinent to consider
the investments of Codelco in companies intending to build metallurgic plants for by-product
processing, and thereby obtain final products of a higher value3. This type of investment is excluded
in Codelcos investment total, and as such are consigned as Metallurgic Plants in copper mining.
2.4.
The information about private mining projects is gathered principally from the announcements
made by the companies through the media (company web pages, newspapers, articles in specialized
magazines, etc.) and through their presentations to the environmental evaluation department.
It includes all of the projects which have begun construction. In the case of the projects which are
still in the Assessment phase the advancement has been reviewed and investment predictions have
been updated, as well as implementation date and estimated production profiles, with the most
recent public information.
This implies that at least the following updates are made:
a)
Identification of the project titleholder for projects which have changed hands.
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
New requirements, such as the incorporation of the usage of sea water, be it directly or
desalinized.
With respects to the investment amounts, it is assumed that the projects reflect principally the
execution stage, notwithstanding that several of them may include prior investments in the
Assessment phase.
MOLYB Ltda. is an affiliate to produce molybdenum trioxide from molybdenite. Similarly, PLANTA RECUPERADORA DE
METALES, (60% LS NIKKO of Korea and 40% of Codelco), is a company which processes anodic slime to recuperate gold,
silver, and other noble minerals.
14
Due to the fact that generally only a general investment amount is known a year prior to the
implementation date, the yearly distribution of the investment is estimated by assuming tentative
timelines for project development, based primarily in the information given in the presentations to
the environmental evaluation system or by empirical estimates of how similar projects are
developed chronologically.
It is worth noting that in the cases of projects which are lacking precise public data for the
implementation year, Cochilco has estimated it based on the context of the available data, which
does not bind the companies in any way.
2.5.
Diverse circumstances either internal and/or external may affect the development of the projects.
External factors refer to the necessary of: securing the electrical supply at a lower amount than the
prevailing costs, fine tuning of the environmental impact Assessment and/or obtaining permits to
build infrastructure as required for the project.
Furthermore, internal factors refer to the synchronization of the project with the global strategy of
the company, acquiring financing, and the need of improving the cost indicators considered for
investment and/or operation as determined in the project engineering studies, as well as others.
In the instance of a lack of public data about the implementation date of a given project, COCHILCO
applies the following methodological criteria:
a)
b)
In the case that there is not sufficient background information to estimate a clear implementation
date for the initiatives, these are removed from the portfolio as restructuring projects.
2.6.
The maximum potential copper production capacity corresponds to the sum of the estimated
individual maximum production capacity of each profile for the current mining operations which
produce copper concentrates and/or SxEw cathodes, as those which correspond to the new copper
projects contemplated in the present investment portfolio which will be implemented within the
next decade. The figures are expressed in tons of fine copper.
The future profiles of the current operations are projected over the base of the recent productive
behavior and the estimate of the evolution of the mining-metallurgic parameters (ore grade and
Chilean Copper Commission
15
16
Implementation
Projects
2015 - 2019
2015 - 2019
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2022
2022
2024
Operator
Mining Sector
Region
Project
type
Condition
Status of
Development
environmental
stage
permissions
Codelco Chile
Codelco Chile
State - Cu
State - Cu
Various
Various
Replacement
New
BASE
POSSIBLE
Execution
Feasibility
N/A
N/A
Iron
Large mining - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Large mining- Cu
Med. Mine - Cu
Coquimbo
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Replacement
Expansion
New
Expansion
Expansion
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
Execution
Execution
Execution
Execution
Execution
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
Molyb Ltda.
Minera San Fierro Chile Ltda
Planta Rec. de Metales SpA
Minera Centinela
Minera Centinela
Ca. Minera Teck Quebrada
Blanca
Sierra Gorda SCM
Metallurgy Plants
Iron
Metallurgy Plants
Large mining - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Large mining- Cu
Antofagasta
Atacama
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Tarapac
New
New
New
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
BASE
PROBABLE
BASE
BASE
BASE
PROBABLE
Execution
Feasibility
Execution
Execution
Execution
Feasibility
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA approved
EIA presented
SQM Nitrato
Laguna Resources Chile
Ca. Minera Nevada
Ingenieros Asesores Ltda.
SCM White Mountain Titanium
Eton Chile
Pucobre
Pampa Norte
AngloAmerican Sur S.A.
Large mining Cu
Industrial Minerals
Gold
Gold
Industrial Minerals
Industrial Minerals
Gold
Medium mining - Cu
Large mining- Cu
Large mining- Cu
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Atacama
Atacama
Antofagasta
Atacama
Atacama
Coquimbo
Tarapac
Metropolitana
Expansion
Expansion
New
New
New
New
New
New
Replacement
Expansion
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Execution
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
EIA presented
EIA approved
Without EIA
EIA suspended
Without EIA
EIA approved
Without EIA
EIA presented
EIA presented
EIA presented
Gold
Large mining - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Gold
Medium mining - Cu
Medium mining - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Coquimbo
Replacement
New
Replacement
New
New
New
Replacement
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Pre-feasibility
Feasibility
EIA presented
EIA approved
EIA approved
Without EIA
EIA approved
Without EIA
Without EIA
State - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Iron
Large mining - Cu
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Coquimbo
Antofagasta
New
New
New
New
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
Feasibility
EIA presented
EIA presented
EIA presented
EIA presented
State - Cu
State - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Antofagasta
Atacama
Tarapac
Replacement
Expansion
New
BASE
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
Execution
Pre-Feasibility
Feasibility
EIA approved
Without EIA
Without EIA
State - Cu
Large mining - Cu
O'Higgins
Antofagasta
Replacement
New
BASE
POTENTIAL
Execution
Feasibility
EIA approved
Without EIA
State - Cu
Large mining - Cu
Valparaso
Atacama
Replacement
New
BASE
POTENTIAL
Execution
Feasibility
N/A
Without EIA
State - Cu
Valparaso
Expansion
POSSIBLE
Feasibility
EIA presented
SCM El Abra
Codelco Div. Andina
Ca. Minera Relincho Copper
S.A.
Codelco Div. Andina
Investment
through
July 2015
(MMUS$)
2,758
1,165
198
4,199
1,900
630
152
425
90
96
636
86
165
1,500
665
150
4,250
503
380
344
624
467
112
200
1,700
460
587
597
700
1,190
5,459
3,300
2,888
4,350
3,816
2.691
5,590
4,920
5,000
1,323
4,500
6,524
77,290
3.1.
17
Project conditionality
Every mining initiative may be affected by certain variables which cause changes in the planned
timeline, these are usually the stage of advancement in the construction or studies, obtaining
permission, be it environmental or sectoral, financial strength of the Operating companies, among
others. Based on this information it is possible to establish the conditions: base, probable, possible,
and potential, based on the greater or less amount of certainty of which the project will come about
in the time and with the aforementioned variables4. Figure 1 shows the investment distribution
according to the condition, while table 3 shows how the investment is distributed per mining sector
and project condition.
Figure 1: Investment distribution in Chilean mining, according to condition
POTENTIAL
BASE
MMUS$ 18.481
23,9%
5 projects
MMUS$ 21.139
27,4%
13 projects
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
MMUS$ 27.464
35,5%
13 projects
MMUS$ 10.206
13,2%
11 projects
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO
Table 3: Investment distribution in Chilean mining per sector and project condition
Sector Total
Mining sector
Base
Probable
Possible
Potential
Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment
Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$)
8
28,656
4
12,817
0
0
3
13,148
1
2,691
Codelco
Large mining
17
35,785
7,451
4,404
8,840
1,090
Medium mining
2,073
152
597
624
700
Metallurgic Plants
521
521
31
67,035
12
20,941
5,001
22,612
1,481
Copper subtotal
5,531
4,450
1,081
Iron
3,176
198
90
2,888
1,548
665
883
11
10,255
198
5,205
4,852
Industrial minerals
Other mineral subtotal
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
For more information on the Methodology, go to Chapter 2.2 Project attributes and conditions for their realization.
18
Therefore the investment portfolio for 2015-2024 corresponds to 42 initiatives, broken down into
31 copper mining projects, valued in US$ 67,035 million, and 11 projects belonging to gold, silver,
iron, and industrial mineral mining, for a total of US$ 10,255 million.
Of this total, we will initially analyze the projects with the greatest probability of being carried out
within the time frame indicated by the proprietary mining companies, which correspond to those
projects in the base and probable conditions, being 23 initiatives valued in US$ 29,845 million:
-
13 initiatives are in base condition, with an investment of US$ 21,139 million, wherein
CODELCO has a 63.1% participation rate of the investments in this condition.
10 projects in a probable condition, with an investment of US$ 10,206 million, where gold
and silver mining make up 43.6% of the total investment.
The second group, projects in the possible and potential category, correspond to those initiatives
with a lesser probability of materializing within the time frame established by the owners as well as
being those more likely to be affected by changes in market conditions, being the equivalent of 18
initiatives valued in US$ 45,945 million:
-
13 in the possible condition, valued in US$27,464 million, wherein CODELCO has a 48%
participation in the investment total.
Five initiatives in the potential condition, with an investment total of US$ 18,481 million,
wherein the large private copper mining has 82% participation.
Due to the complex characteristics and ease of being affected by the variables described at the
beginning of this chapter, this last group requires more attention so that in the right time they may
be implemented within the institutional framework of the country.
To better analyze the variables involved up to the moment of defining the condition of the projects
in this registry, following is shown the investment distribution of the projects with regards to their
stage of advancement and of processing before the Environmental Evaluation Service.
Table 4: Investment distribution in Chilean mining per sector and stage of advancement
Sector Total
Execution
Execution suspended
Feasibility
Pre-feasibility
Codelco
28,656
12,817
Project
Quantit
y
3
13,148
Large mining
17
34,285
7,451
12
28,334
Medium mining
Metallurgic plants
metalrgicas
Copper Subtotal
2,073
152
1,221
700
521
521
31
67,035
12
20,941
17
42,703
3,391
5,531
4,250
1,281
Iron
3,176
198
2,978
1,548
1,548
11
10,255
198
4,250
5,807
Mining sector
Industrial minerals
Other mineral Subtotal
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
Investment
(MMUS$)
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
2,691
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
19
As observed in Table 4, the projects in execution make up 27.4% of the total portfolio with 13
initiatives, of which Mine-Plant Transfer of Divisin Andina and Other development projects of
CODELCO which do not possess the Environmental Impact studies due to investments on an
operational level. It may also be observed that the investment portfolio concentrates 62.8% of the
inversions on 26 projects in the feasibility stage.
Table 5: Investment distribution in Chilean mining per sector and SEA process
Sector Total
Mining Sector
EIA approved
EIA suspended
EIA presented
Without EIA
N/A
Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment
Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$)
Codelco
28,656
8,736
11,983
2,691
5,246
Large mining
17
35,785
9,611
9,894
16,280
Medium mining
2,073
749
624
700
Metallurgic Plants
521.1
521
30
67,035
13
19,616
22,501
19,671
5,246
Copper Subtotal
5,531
4,250
200
1,081
Iron
3,176
288
2,888
Industrial minerals
1,548
1,045
503
11
10,255
1,333
4,250
3,088
1,584
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
Similarly, table 5 shows the 17 initiatives which equal 27.1% of the total inversion which have the
RCA approved as of July 2015, which indicates that there are 6 initiatives which, in the next few
months, could begin implementation and change their materialization condition. Furthermore,
33.1% of the financing corresponds to 10 initiatives which have not yet received a positive
environmental qualification (RCA approved) for their presented projects, and 27.5% of the
investment corresponds to projects which have not yet entered their respective EIA into the system.
3.2.
20
Investment purpose
The materialization of the initiatives, as well as being subject to the aforementioned variables,
depends on the strategic purpose of the Company with regards to its future development. Following
is an investment summary of the inversions for the project portfolio for the 2015-2024 period,
according to the mining sector it is destined to, distributed by project type5.
Figure 2: Investment distribution in Chilean mining, according to project type
REPLACEMENT
MMUS$ 16.219
21,0%
12 projects
NEW
MMUS$ 44.598
57,7%
22 projects
EXPANSION
MMUS$ 16.473
21,3%
8 projects
Table 6: Investment distribution in Chilean mining per sector and project type
Sector Total
Mining sector
Replacement
Expansion
New
CODELCO
28,656
12,817
9,215
6,624
Large mining
17
35,785
3,004
6,441
26,340
Medium mining
2,073
152
1,921
Metallurgic plants
521
521
31
67,035
10
15,821
15,808
14
35,406
5,531
200
5,331
Iron
3,176
198
2,978
Industrial minerals
1,548
665
883
11
10,255
398
665
9,192
Copper subtotal
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
Upon closer observation of the investment details, it can be determined that the replacement of
the productive capacity corresponds to 21% of the total investment with 12 initiatives, wherein
projects y CODELCO make up 79% of this segment. Furthermore, the expansion of operations which
21
are currently in production reaches 21.3% of the total inversion in the portfolio with only eight
projects, wherein CODELCO again is relevant with 55.9% of this segment. In summary, the
brownfield investments of the project portfolio, replacement and expansion of current operations
reaches 42.3% of the investment portfolio with CODELCO as the principal investor.
Similarly, 22 of the 42 projects considered in the investment portfolio for 2015-2024, making up
57.7% of the portfolios value, correspond to new projects presented by mining companies
operating in the country as well as by 10 companies who would like to enter the Chilean mining
market with the new projects. The principal intention of the new companies and their projects are_
one for large copper mining, one for medium copper mining, three in gold mining, two in iron, two
in industrial minerals, and one metallurgical plant. These 10 initiatives make up US$ 7,438 million,
or 9.6% of the total portfolio value.
3.3.
Regional Investment
The third look at the mining project portfolio is that of the regional distribution of the investment,
in copper mining as well as gold, silver, iron compounds, and industrial minerals, as shown in figure
3.
Figure 3: Total investment of the investment portfolio by regions for copper mining and others
6.222
Tarapac
Antofagasta
32.966
11.138
Atacama
1.814
Coquimbo
8.141
Valparaso
504
Metropolitana
6.249
O'Higgins
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
As previously explained, the investment distribution by the conditionality of the projects allows to
create a realistic image of the investment portfolio, for this reason table 7 also shows the regional
distribution of the investment in copper mining according to the condition of materialization of the
projects.
22
Base
Probable
Possible
Potential
Project Investment % of total Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment Project Investment
Quantity (MMUS$) investment Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$) Quantity (MMUS$)
Tarapac
6,222
8.1%
632
5,590
Antofagasta
13
32,966
42.7%
12,891
1,500
13,575
5,000
Atacama
11,138
14.4%
345
2,757
146
7,891
Coquimbo
1,814
2.3%
1,814
Valparaso
8,141
10.5%
1,530
6,611
Metropolitana
504
0.7%
276
112
117
OHiggins
6,249
8.1%
5,899
350
67,035
86.7%
20,941
5,001
22,612
18,481
TOTAL
31
12
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
Copper mining, with 31 projects, makes up 86.7% of the total investments in the portfolio. Most of
these are found in Antofagasta, which, with 13 projects receives 42.7% of the total investment, of
which 8 are in base condition and only one in potential.
In second place is the Atacama region, with 6 initiatives which make up 14.4% of the total registry.
This region is the one which was most affected with respect to the previous version of the
investment register, due to the fact that a large percentage of the projects are in a potential
condition. In the investment portfolio for 2015, Atacama has 3 initiatives in the potential condition
which make up 70.8% of the total investment in copper projects in the region.
In third place we find the Valparaiso region, which receives 10.5% of the total investment in the
project portfolio, specifically the CODELCO projects Nueva Andina Phase II and Mine-Plant
Transfer, both from the Andina Division.
Sharing fourth places are the regions of Tarapac and OHiggins, each with 8.1% of the investment
portfolio, with initiatives coming from companies such as Teck and BHP Billiton in Tarapac and with
the projects from El Teniente Division of CODELCO and of Valle Central of Amerigo Resources in the
case of the OHiggins region.
Table 8 shows the regional distribution of the global investment in gold, iron, and industrial ore
mining.
23
Table 8: Investment in gold, iron and industrial ore mining, per region and project condition
Region Total
Region
Base
Probable
Possible
Potential
Antofagasta
1,168
1.5%
665
503
Atacama
6,001
7.8%
4,540
1,461
Coquimbo
3,086
4.0%
198
2,888
10,255
13.3%
198
5,205
4,852
TOTAL
11
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
Investing in gold, iron, and industrial ore mining makes up 13.3% of the investment portfolio for
2015-2024 with 11 initiatives, concentrated mainly in 7 projects to be carried out in the Atacama
region (7.9% of the portfolio), aimed principally at gold mining (92.2% of the total regional
investment).
In Coquimbo two iron projects are being planned, one of which is on a large scale and plans to
coproduce copper, which is the case of the Dominga project by Andes Iron, while in Antofagasta
there are two initiatives to produce industrial minerals, one of which corresponds to a iodine and
nitrate project, carried out by Chilean investors in the region, named Arbiodo.
3.4.
An interesting perspective of the investments to be carried out within the next decade is to consider
the nationality of the owners of the operating companies of the projects, as well as those which only
invest in the new initiatives by participating as a primary partner. Figure 4 shows the total
investment in the portfolio, according to country of origin.
24
MMUS$ 573
0,7%
MMUS$ 45.489
58,9%
Chile
MMUS$ 1.316
1,7%
MMUS$ 2.829
3,7%
Canad
Canada
Australia
EE.UU.
United States
MMUS$ 2.930
3,8%
Japan
Japn
Reino
Unido
United
Kingdom
MMUS$ 7.032
9,1%
Poland
Polonia
Corea
Korea
MMUS$ 16.206
21,0%
Source: Prepared by Cochilco
Investments come from 8 countries, led by Chile with 60% of total participation, coming from
companies such as Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals in state and private copper mining, Pucobre
and Copec in medium mining, as well as distinct international investments in gold, iron, and
industrial ore mining. In second place we find Canada, with a 21.4% participation, from emblematic
companies such as Teck Resources, Lundin Mining (who just acquired Candelaria), Kinross, Capstone
and the Santo Domingo project, Barrick Gold and other companies focused on investing in medium
copper mining and that of industrial minerals.
For a more detailed account, in Table 9 the distribution of investments in copper mine is shown for
each country and the total participation in the investment in mining is considered in the registry, all
contrasted with the conditionality of the investments.
25
Table 9: Distribution of the investment in copper mining per country of origin and condition (MMUS$)
Country of
origin
Country total
% of the
total
investment
Base
Probable
Possible
Potential
Chile
41,500
53.69%
15,551
658
18,836
6,455
Canada
10,612
13.73%
152
1,684
8,776
Australia
6,882
8.90%
2,414
467
3,300
700
USA
2,550
3.30%
2,550
Japan
2,777
3.59%
1,500
800
476
United Kingdom
1,316
1.70%
1,260
56
Poland
825
1.07%
825
Korea
573
0.74%
63
510
65,535
86.5%
20,941
5,001
22,612
18,481
TOTAL
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
The prior Assessment is replicated for the different mineral projects other than copper in table 10.
Table 10: Investment in gold, iron, and industrial ore mining, by country of origin and condition (MMUS$)
Country of
origin
Country total
% of the
total
investment
Base
Probable
Possible
Potential
Chile
3,989
5.16%
160
438
3,391
Canada
5,593
7.24%
4,663
931
USA
380
0.49%
380
Australia
150
0.19%
150
China
90
0.12%
90
Japan
52
0.07%
38
14
10,255
13.3%
198
5,585
4,472
TOTAL
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
26
Coppe
Cobre
16.000
Otros minerales
r
14.000
MMUS$
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Anterior a
2015
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020- 2024
However, it is necessary to look at the conditionality of the investment flow, for which, and on the
basis of available public information, a yearly investment profile has been estimated according to
the anticipated timeline, and has been assigned a condition which reflects the degree of certainty
of the implementation for each project.
4.1.
Table 11 summarizes the yearly investment flow in coper mining for the following segments:
CODELCO; large private mining, medium mining, and metallurgical plants, distribution of the
27
investment from degrees of greater to lesser certainty of implementation within the period
indicated by the companies which own the projects, meaning, from the base condition to potential.
Table 11: Yearly investment distribution in copper mining according to project condition (MMUS$)
Copper mining according
to condition
TOTAL
Before
2015
2015
2016
2017
2018
Subtotal
2015 -2019
2019
2020 - 2024
TOTAL
% of
investment
10,800
5,380
7,695
8,515
9,377
8,288
39,254
16,981
67,035
100%
Of which:
Base
8,576
3,154
2,136
2,211
1,840
2,027
11,368
997
20,941
31%
Probable
775
663
1,004
829
266
2,762
3,501
7%
Possible
854
1,003
2,417
3,157
4,027
3,118
13,721
8,037
22,612
34%
Potential
595
311
1,138
2,103
3,244
3,143
9,939
7,947
18,481
28%
2,308
2,099
3,202
3,766
3,601
4,138
16,805
9,542
28,656
100%
2,168
1,540
2,069
2,175
1,840
2,027
9,651
997
12,817
45%
0%
Possible
130
526
1,085
1,398
1,532
1,738
6,278
6,740
13,148
46%
Potential
10
33
48
193
229
373
876
1,805
2,691
9%
7,824
2,935
3,833
3,851
5,539
4,150
20,522
7,439
35,785
6,002
1,444
1,450
7,451
22%
Probable
705
823
1,825
847
204
3,699
4,404
12%
Possible
582
415
1,022
1,649
2,495
1,380
6,961
1,297
8,840
25%
Potential
535
253
980
1,570
2,840
2,770
8,413
6,142
15,090
42%
Medium mining
278
232
644
683
237
1,795
2,073
100%
16
55
45
36
136
152
7%
Probable
70
90
179
197
62
527
597
29%
Possible
142
62
310
110
482
624
30%
Potential
50
25
110
340
175
650
700
34%
390
115
16
131
521
100%
390
115
16
131
521
100%
CODELCO
of which:
Base
Probable
Large mining
100%
Of which:
Base
Of which:
Base
Metallurgy Plants
Of which:
Base
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
Discounting the US$ 10,800 million invested before 2015, the investment with possibilities of
implementation within the 2015 and 2024 period in copper mining reaches US$ 56,200 million, of
which US$ 39.9 million will be reached in the five year period from 2015 - 2019.
Analyzing the initiatives with the greatest probability of development within the timeframes
estimated by their owners, these corresponds to 38% of the investment to be implemented within
the next five years. Of this group, the projects in base condition make up 25.4% of the investment
to be obtained between 2015 and 2019, with a yearly average of 2.28 thousand million USD, leaving
an investment remained of less than one thousand million for after 2019, while the initiatives in a
Chilean Copper Commission
28
probable condition only make up a yearly average of around US$ 1.06 thousand million, which
corresponds to just 7% of the financing to be obtained in the short term, specifically between 2015
and 2018.
Conversely, the projects with a lesser probability of being implemented within the proposed
timeframes correspond to 62% of the investment between 2015 and 2019, leaving a remnant of
almost US$ 16 thousand million for after 2019. In this group, the projects in possible condition
correspond to 34% of the investment in the five year period, contributing a yearly average of US$
2.7 thousand million, leaving a remnant of US$ 8.04 thousand million for later execution.
Furthermore, and unlike the previous register wherein the potential group made up the greatest
investment to be implemented in the five year period, this year these projects reach just 28% of the
total estimated for the next five years, supplying an average of US$ 1.99 thousand million, and
leaving an investment remnant for the 2020-2024 period of around US$ 7.95 thousand million
dollars.
4.2.
Table 12 summarizes the annual investment in the gold, iron and industrial ore mining segments:
Table 12: Yearly investment distribution in gold, iron, and industrial minerals according to condition
(MMUS$)
Gold-silver, iron, and
industrial minerals
according to condition
TOTAL
Before
2015
4,615
2015
628
2016
2017
1,903
2018
1,575
Subtotal
2015 -2019
2019
1,280
254
2020 2024
TOTAL
5,640
10,255
% of
investment
100.0%
Of which:
Base
178
20
20
198
3.6%
Probable
3,237
478
1,095
640
135
2,348
5,585
101.0%
Possible
1,200
130
808
935
1,145
254
3,272
4,472
80.9%
Gold
3,283
420
1,003
675
150
2,248
5,531
100.0%
3,025
360
720
290
55
1,425
4,450
80.5%
Of which:
Probable
Possible
Iron
258
60
283
385
95
823
1,081
19.5%
1,144
83
205
440
1,050
254
2,032
3,176
100.0%
Of which:
Base
178
20
20
198
6.2%
Probable
42
23
25
48
90
2.8%
Possible
924
40
180
440
1,050
254
1,964
2,888
90.9%
Industrial minerals
188
125
695
460
80
1,360
1,548
100.0%
Probable
170
95
350
350
80
875
1,045
32.9%
Possible
18
30
345
110
485
503
32.5%
Of which:
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO, based on information for each project taken from public sources
29
In gold mining, in investment in 5 projects for 5.5 thousand million dollars is expected, which is
concentrated in the probable condition, to be carried out before 2019. Furthermore, it is estimated
that the yearly average investment in the gold project portfolio reach 508 million dollars in the 20152018 period.
For iron mining as well as industrial minerals there are no relevant variations in the investment
distribution seen.
30
5.1.
The maximum productive potential of copper mining in Chile is summarized in Table 13, which
indicates the yearly information from 2015 to 2026, broken down into operations and projects
according to their conditionality, as an indicator of the degree of reliability of this information. The
real production in 2014 is included as a means of reference and comparison. Additionally, the
percentage of yearly variation in the maximum capacity of total production is indicated.
Considering a horizon of 20267, Chile has the potential of reaching a copper production capacity of
7.56 million tons of copper, a 31.6% above the production registered in 2014, if all of the planned
projects are carried out according to their timelines. The maximum production would be registered
for this period during 2024, wherein the copper production would reach approximately 7.84 million
tons, 36.3% over 2014 production.
Table 13: Estimated production capacity of copper mining in Chile through 2026 (kt of fine Cu)8
CONDITION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
5,749.5
5,980.8
5.676.7
5,567.2
5,412.0
5,337.9
4,956.3
4,742.6
4,554.2
4,401.0
4,254.0
3,986.7
3,811.5
BASE/ Projects
0,0
359.1
585.8
737.3
748.4
768.7
797.5
907.1
1,000.8
1,139.6
1,190.0
1,255.0
1,270.0
PROBABLE/ Projects
0,0
0,0
0,0
217.6
430.9
479.3
463.8
444.9
435.4
414.0
393.7
314.3
302.0
POSSIBLE/ Projects Cu
0,0
0,0
0,0
18.7
51.9
375.0
546.1
632.2
650.9
770.8
942.4
1,136.4
1,227.8
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
9.0
16.5
18.0
19.0
17.0
20.0
32,0
22.0
21.0
POTENTIAL/ Projects Cu
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
25.9
152.5
292.2
651.3
804.3
989.8
1,025.6
963.0
931.4
7,129.8
7,074.0
7,397.2
7,462.6
7,735.2
7,837.8
6.8%
-0.8%
4.6%
0.9%
3.7%
1.3%
BASE/ Operations
TOTAL 5,749.5
Yearly change
---
6,339.8
10.3%
4.4%
2.1%
7,677.5 7,563.8
-2.0%
Copper mining production capacity corresponds to concentrates and SxEw cathodes. The methodologic criteria used to
estimate is shown in point 2.6
7
Two years after the last year of implementation registered in this registry (see methodologic criteria shown in point 2.6)
Includes the by-productive capacity of copper coming from the gold and iron projects.
-1.5%
31
This projection considers the natural declination in production of the current operations in 1.94
million tons, for which the greatest contribution corresponds to the impact in the investment in the
projects, which depend on distinct factors internally as well as externally to reach the productive
goals, which is determined through the conditionality of the projects.
The following graph shows how the copper production will evolve and the growing importance of
the contribution of the projects, to increase national productive capacity according to the condition
of these.
Figure 1: Maximum copper production capacity according to condition
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
Base
Probable
Posible
Potencial
The total estimate for the production capacity of the copper mining is distributed through the
respective copper production capacities in concentrates and in SxEw cathodes, which are shown in
tables 14 and 15 as follows.
32
Table 14: Estimated Chilean production capacity of fine copper concentrate through 2026 (kt of fine Cu)
CONDITION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
3,905.6
4,214.3
4,010.6
3,952.0
3,888.0
3,874.7
3,727.8
3,624.3
3,449.1
3,305.2
3,246.8
3,109.7
3,117.4
BASE/ Projects
0,0
325.7
487.0
620.8
626.2
645.6
674.7
783.8
882.2
1,023.6
1,112.6
1,178.0
1,193.4
PROBABLE/ Projects
0,0
0,0
0,0
121.2
320.2
362.0
346.6
332.1
322.5
301.3
290.3
270.1
262.0
POSSIBLE/ Projects Cu
0,0
0,0
0,0
18.7
47.9
369.6
539.5
625.9
644.6
764.5
936.1
1,130.1
1,221.7
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
9.0
16.5
18.0
19.0
17.0
20.0
32.0
22.0
21.0
POTENTIAL/ Projects Cu
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
25.9
152.5
292.2
651.3
804.3
989.8
1,025.6
963.0
931.4
4,540.1
4,497.6
4,712.7
4,917.2
5,421.0
5,598.9
6,036.5
6,119.8
6,404.4
6,643.6
16.2%
-0.9%
4.8%
4.3%
10.2%
3.3%
7.8%
1.4%
4.7%
3.7%
BASE/ Operations
TOTAL 3,905.6
Yearly Change
---
6,672.9 6,746.9
0.4%
1.1%
Table 15: Estimated Chilean production capacity for fine copper in SxEw cathodes through 2026 (Thousand
tons.)
CONDITION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
1,843.9
1,766.4
1,666.1
1,615.3
1,524.0
1,463.2
1,228.5
1,118.3
1,105.0
1,095.8
1,007.2
877.1
69.1
BASE/ Projects
0,0
33,3
98.8
116.4
122.2
123.0
122.8
123.2
118.6
116.0
77.4
77.0
76.6
PROBABLE/ Projects
0,0
0,0
0,0
96.5
110.6
117.2
117.2
112.9
112.9
112.7
103.3
44.2
40.0
POSSIBLE/ Projects
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
4.0
5.4
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.1
1,799.8
1,764.9
1,828.1
1,760.8
1,708.9
1,475.1
1,360.7
1,342.8
1,330.8
1,194.2
1,004.5
816.9
-2.4%
-1.9%
3.6%
-3.7%
-3.0%
-13.7%
-7.8%
-1.3%
-0.9%
-10.3%
-15.9%
-18.7%
BASE/ Operations
TOTAL 1,843.9
Yearly Change
---
In each table there is an opposing trend. While the production capacity in concentrates increments
by 2.84 million tons by 2026, a 70.9% increase from 2014, the SxEw cathodes may decrease by 1.03
million tons, registering a 55.7% decrease from the same year.
5.1.1.
The hydrometallurgical processing of copper into SxEw cathodes shows in the last decade strong
signs of decline since its peak in 2009, when it reached 2.12 million tons. The production of SxEw
cathodes will be maintained at about 1.8 million tons until 2017, to then decline rapidly by a yearly
average rate of 7.7% in the following ten years, reaching a production loss of 1.03 million tons of
SxEw cathodes (figure 6).
This decrease in SxEw cathode production is due mainly to the depletion of leachable resources and
the closing of some copper sites towards the end of the next decade, for example, Collahuasi,
Sagasca, Quebrada Blanca, Mantos Blancos, Michilla, Las Cenizas, Franke, Mantoverde and Carmen
de Andacollo. Likewise, it is observed that some of the operations of CODELCO, such as
Chilean Copper Commission
33
Chuquicamata (Hidrosur), Radomiro Tomic and Salvador, will reduce their production due to the
depletion of leachable resources.
With respect to the hydrometallurgy projects considered in this portfolio, these principally
correspond to replacement projects and of marginal expansions of current operations, and of four
new projects: El Espino, Diego de Almagro and the production of oxides coming from the operations
of Distrito Centinela, by Antofagasta Minerals, and of Sierra Gorda, property of KGHM. There are
not currently any potential projects for the hydrometallurgy line.
This operational decrease has a direct effect in a lesser demand for sulphuric acid, which will cause
a change in the sulphuric acid market in Chile from the condition of structural deficit to an incipient
condition of excess by the year 2019. It is worth mentioning that the structural change in the
sulphuric market will have negative implications in the importation and exportation structure of this
good in the country, as an excess would force producers to export the excess acid, with the following
negative implication in the prices of this good.
Another impact is the closing of several solvent or electro-winning extraction plants, with no
alternative use.
Figure 6: Projection of maximum copper production in cathodes, 2014 2026 period
2.000
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
Posible
Possible
1.000
Probable
Probable
800
Base
Base
600
400
200
0
5.1.2.
34
The project portfolio for 2015-2024 reaffirms that which has been observed in the past few years:
the structural change in copper production turns toward copper concentrate production, due to
diverse factors such as the geologic conditions of the country, the production changes from old
hydrometallurgical operations, etc. This will cause an increase in the maximum production capacity
of copper concentrate by 2.84 million tons of fine copper per year by 2026. With this the projected
decline will be surpassed from the current operations, without whose projects in development,
would decrease production by 788 thousand tons of fine copper with respects to 2014.
This substantial increase in production which comes from the concentrate line has strong
repercussions in two important aspects of the mining politics in general, which are the increase of
the exportable supply of concentrates, without increasing the current production of ER cathodes,
and the structural increase of costs in Chilean mining coming from the levels of mineral processing
which this type of processing increase brings.
Figure 7: Maximum production projection in copper concentrate, period 2014 - 2026
7.000
6.000
5.000
Potential
Potencial
4.000
Posible
Possible
Probable
3.000
Base
Base
2.000
1.000
a)
In 2014 2.55 million tons of copper concentrate were exported, equaling 65.3% of the concentrate
production of the country, the rest should be understood to have been consumed in the Chilean
foundries. Even though the production of the foundries reached 1.36 million tons of fine copper in
2014, previous years reached levels around 1.56 million tons of fine copper, which means that there
Chilean Copper Commission
35
is the capacity of treating the equivalent of 1.6 million tons of fine copper content in the feeder
concentrates, due to the capacity expansion projects not being considered for the national
foundries9.
Toward 2026, the maximum copper production capacity in concentrates will reach 6.75 million tons,
reaching 89% of the national copper production participation. However, under the premise that no
FURE projects were to exist in the country, this increase in concentrate production would imply that
the potential exportation of concentrates would reach 5.2 million tons, or76.9% of the total Chilean
concentrate production.
68%
76%
79%
89%
85% 87%
83%
82% 82%
100%
90%
80%
70%
6.000
60%
5.000
50%
4.000
40%
3.000
30%
2.000
20%
1.000
10%
0%
Cobre en concentrados a FURE externa
Copper concentrates to external FURE
Cobre en concentrados a FURE nacional
Copper concentrates to national FURE
Part.
decopper
la prod.
de cobre
en concentrados
en la
prod.
Part of
concentrate
production
in the countrys
total
prod.total del pas
Source: Prepared by COCHILCO
Likewise, it is estimated that the volume of concentrates with copper concentrates will pass the
current 13.3 million tons, with an average ore grade of 29.2% copper, to 23.8 million tons, with the
average ore grade of 24.1$. Similarly, the volume of concentrates for exportation would surpass the
current8.67 million tons to almost double by 2026, reaching 17.26 million tons.
Only operational adjustments are expected to be required to comply with the gas emission requirements
(SO2 and others).
36
Figure 9: Projection of maximum production of copper concentrates according to destination, 2014 2026
period
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
Concentrates to
FURE
Concentrados
a national
FURE nacional
Concentrates atoFURE
external
FURE
Concentrados
externa
This strong growth in concentrate production could affect the position of the exporters in the
negotiations for the costs of treatment and refining, affecting the liquid value of the return, and the
tributary utilities of the companies, leaving Chile with a lesser participation in the refined copper
business on a worldwide level.
Another problem related with this increase in concentrate production is the production of tailings
coming from the concentrating plants. Therefore it is estimated that if during 2014 563.5 Mt of
tailings were produced, by 2026 an increase of 121.8% will produced more per year, reaching
1,249.7 Mt of tailings (figure 10).
37
Figure 10: Projection of maximum tailings production as a result of the copper concentration process,
2014 - 2026
1.300
1.200
1.100
1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Base
Base
Probable
Probable
Possible
Posible
Potential
Potencial
b)
Adding to the natural decline of operational parameters in the existing sites it must be considered
that there are lower grades in the new projects to be carried out within the next decade, which
implies that the mining extraction capacity and of the concentration plants must be of a large size.
Figure 11 shows the projected yearly mineral treatment capacity in the concentration plants which
are currently in operation, as well as the contribution of the projects are they are implemented
according to what is anticipated from the available information.
38
1.200,0
1.000,0
POTENCIAL
POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE
POSIBLE
800,0
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
600,0
BASE
BASE
400,0
200,0
0,0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Taking this data and comparing it with the fine copper contained in the concentrate to be produced
within the next decade, an unfavorable tendency is shown starting in 2015. With a yearly growth
rate of 3.4% of fine copper obtainable between the years of 2015 and 2026, the growth rate of the
ore treatment would be of 5.6% yearly, from 576.9 million tons of mineral treated in 2014 to an
estimated 1,273.5 million tons of ore to be treated by 2026 (figure 12).
39
14
1.400
12
1.200
10
1.000
800
600
400
200
Mt of sulphured ore
Figure 12: Relationship between treated mineral and fine copper content in produced concentrate
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Production of fine copper concentrate
Direct consequences of this structural situation, which signifies a greater quantity of material to be
extracted:
a. Greater capital investment and operation costs.
b. Greater consumption intensity per unit of copper recovered.
c. Greater consumption of water and other inputs depending more on the volume of the
material to be treated than the copper content.
Furthermore, several of the concentrate projects are considering the use of sea water, with or
without desalination, as well as the impulsion system to the place of operations. For this concept
the capital costs would also rise for the required installations and the operation, because of the
electricity consumed. This last also requires a clear policy to define the correct manner to introduce
this new hydrological market in the country.
In summary, if currently 10,849 tpd are produced of fine copper concentrate, as a product of the
processing of 1.60 Mtpd of tailings (amounts from 2014), the copper mining project portfolio for
2015-2024 will increase the fine copper concentrate to 18,741 tpd, the product of the processing of
around 3.54 Mtpd of minerals in the concentration plants, which will generate around 3.47 Mtpd of
tailings toward 2026. This signifies an increase in daily treatment and tailings generation of close to
121% only to increase the daily copper production by 32%.
5.2.
40
As well as observing the global behavior of copper production in the country, it is necessary to look
at how it is manifested on a regional level, where the investment process has an economic impact
which is prolonged after the product of the investment is transformed into operations. The
magnitude and use of the maximum production capacity is what generates the long term effect on
the activities directly related with the mining, and very importantly, in the diversity of the activities
indirectly provided of goods and services which is very relevant to the region where it is carried out.
The following tables show the production capacity estimates of copper mining corresponding to
each productive region, breaking them down for the respective profiles of maximum concentrates
and SxEw cathodes.
Table 16: Maximum regional productive capacity of copper mines in Chile through 2026 (thousands of
tons of fine copper)
REGION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
XV. Arica-Parinacota
2.0
4.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
2.3
Operations
2.0
4.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
2.3
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I. Tarapac
608.0
668.7
663.4
661.0
656.6
720.3
728.3
769.1
769.1
753.1
735.5
664.8
657.7
Operations
608.0
668.7
663.4
584.5
580.1
534.5
485.7
473.5
473.5
461.6
461.6
450.0
450.0
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
76.5
76.5
185.8
242.6
295.6
295.6
291.5
273.9
214.8
207.8
II. Antofagasta
3,047.6
3,458.4
3,330.0
3,565.0
3,490.3
3,828.9
3,796.3
3,998.1
4,020.3
4,215.6
4,190.4
3,947.4
3,837.9
Operations
3,047.6
3,108.1
2.765.6
2,757.0
2,621.5
2,592.6
2,372.2
2,205.0
2,045.9
1,980.5
1,897.0
1,696.1
1,600.4
Projects
0.0
350.4
564.4
808.0
868.9
1,236.4
1,424.0
1,793.2
1,974.4
2,235.1
2,293.3
2,251.3
2,237.4
III. Atacama
430.8
538.0
560.3
606.6
793.0
837.8
809.6
894.2
928.9
1,013.7
1,061.0
992.2
980.7
Operations
430.8
538.0
560.3
564.8
561.9
585.6
489.9
470.6
456.0
438.0
424.2
409.6
398.9
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
41.7
231.2
252.2
319.7
423.6
473.0
575.7
636.8
582.6
581.8
IV. Coquimbo
493.2
485.2
491.2
503.7
550.9
570.3
573.0
566.3
564.3
560.2
573.0
555.6
554.4
Operations
493.2
485.2
491.2
484.9
490.0
481.9
472.1
466.6
466.5
461.0
460.9
454.8
454.8
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.7
60.9
88.4
100.8
99.8
97.8
99.2
112.1
100.8
99.6
V. Valparaso
290.2
278.7
288.5
283.6
275.4
265.6
271.4
269.5
289.3
302.5
407.3
647.6
669.5
Operations
290.2
278.7
288.5
283.6
275.4
265.6
271.4
269.5
289.3
302.5
319.3
336.7
315.5
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
88.0
310.9
354.0
XIII. Metropolitana
404.5
434.6
434.2
429.2
428.7
423.6
423.7
418.7
418.2
413.4
393.8
389.5
389.2
Operations
404.5
434.6
434.2
429.2
428.7
423.6
423.7
418.7
418.2
413.4
393.8
389.5
389.2
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
VI. O'Higgins
473.1
471.5
489.1
486.0
477.2
478.0
466.4
475.8
467.5
471.8
471.9
475.6
472.1
Operations
473.1
462.8
467.6
457.3
448.6
448.9
436.0
433.4
399.8
339.1
292.3
245.3
200.5
Projects
0.0
8.7
21.4
28.7
28.7
29.1
30.4
42.4
67.7
132.7
179.6
230.3
271.6
TOTAL
5,749.5
6,339.8
6,262.5
6,540.8
6,678.0
7,129.8
7,074.0
7,397.2
7,462.6
7,735.2
7,837.8
7,677.5
7,563.8
Operations
5,749.5
5,980.8
5,676.7
5,567.2
5,412.0
5,337.9
4,956.3
4,742.6
4,554.2
4,401.0
4,254.0
3,986.7
3,811.5
Projects
0.0
359.1
585.8
973.6
1,266.0
1,791.9
2,117.6
2,654.5
2,908.5
3,334.2
3,583.8
3,690.7
3,752.2
41
Table 17: Maximum regional productive capacity of fine copper concentrates by2026 (Thousands of tons)
REGION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
XV. Arica-Parinacota
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Operations
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I. Tarapac
445.4
511.1
511.1
498.2
498.2
599.3
656.1
700.7
700.7
684.7
676.4
664.8
657.7
Operations
445.4
511.1
511.1
498.2
498.2
485.7
485.7
473.5
473.5
461.6
461.6
450.0
450.0
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
113.6
170.4
227.2
227.2
223.1
214.8
214.8
207.8
II. Antofagasta
1,558.9
2,028.2
1,922.7
2,111.2
2,107.2
2,465.9
2,553.7
2,863.9
2,898.7
3,097.9
3,176.7
3,057.4
3.,27.9
Operations
1,558.9
1,711.2
1,457.1
1,439.6
1,390.6
1,392.6
1,292.6
1,234.0
1,083.0
1,018.8
1,000.8
923.0
1,007.0
Projects
0.0
317.0
465.6
671.6
716.6
1,073.3
1,261.2
1,630.0
1,815.8
2,079.1
2,175.9
2,134.3
2,120.8
III. Atacama
309.1
412.9
441.8
480.4
667.4
704.3
731.8
817.7
856.5
948.7
999.3
934.5
927.5
Operations
309.1
412.9
441.8
438.6
440.4
457.1
417.1
398.6
388.0
377.2
366.7
356.1
345.7
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
41.7
227.0
247.2
314.7
419.2
468.5
571.5
632.6
578.4
581.8
IV. Coquimbo
477.8
466.9
473.6
486.7
524.8
545.4
556.7
550.3
548.3
544.4
557.2
540.6
539.6
Operations
477.8
466.9
473.6
468.0
468.0
462.4
462.4
456.9
456.9
451.5
451.5
446.1
446.1
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.7
56.9
83.0
94.3
93.5
91.5
92.9
105.8
94.5
93.5
V. Valparaso
274.9
264.3
274.3
269.6
261.6
252.0
258.0
256.3
276.3
289.7
394.7
637.1
659.1
Operations
274.9
264.3
274.3
269.6
261.6
252.0
258.0
256.3
276.3
289.7
306.7
326.2
305.1
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
88.0
310.9
354.0
XIII. Metropolitana
368.3
387.2
387.2
382.6
382.6
378.1
378.1
373.7
373.7
369.3
369.3
364.9
364.9
Operations
368.3
387.2
387.2
382.6
382.6
378.1
378.1
373.7
373.7
369.3
369.3
364.9
364.9
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
VI. O'Higgins
471.3
469.5
487.1
484.0
475.2
476.0
464.4
473.8
465.5
469.8
469.9
473.6
470.1
Operations
471.3
460.8
465.6
455.3
446.6
446.9
434.0
431.4
397.8
337.1
290.3
243.3
198.5
Projects
0.0
8.7
21.4
28.7
28.7
29.1
30.4
42.4
67.7
132.7
179.6
230.3
271.6
TOTAL
3,905.6
4,540.1
4,497.6
4,712.7
4,917.2
5,421.0
5,598.9
6,036.5
6,119.8
6,404.4
6,643.6
6,672.9
6,746.9
Operations
3,905.6
4,214.3
4,010.6
3,952.0
3,888.0
3,874.7
3,727.8
3,624.3
3,449.1
3,305.2
3,246.8
3,109.7
3,117.4
Projects
0.0
325.7
487.0
760.7
1,029.2
1,546.2
1,871.0
2,412.1
2,670.7
3,099.2
3,396.7
3,563.3
3,629.5
42
Table 18: Maximum regional productive capacity of fine copper in SxEw cathodes by 2026 (Thousands of
tons)
REGION
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
XV. Arica-Parinacota
2.0
4.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
2.3
Operations
2.0
4.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
2.3
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
162.6
157.6
152.3
162.8
158.4
121.0
72.2
68.4
68.4
68.4
59.1
0.0
0.0
Operations
162.6
157.6
152.3
86.3
81.9
48.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
76.5
76.5
72.2
72.2
68.4
68.4
68.4
59.1
0.0
0.0
I. Tarapac
II. Antofagasta
1,488.7
1,430.2
1,407.3
1,453.8
1,383.1
1,363.1
1,242.5
1,134.2
1,121.6
1,117.7
1,013.6
890.1
710.0
Operations
1,488.7
1,396.9
1,308.5
1,317.4
1,230.9
1,200.0
1,079.7
971.0
963.0
961.7
896.3
773.1
593.4
Projects
0.0
33.3
98.8
136.4
152.2
163.0
162.8
163.2
158.6
156.0
117.4
117.0
116.6
III. Atacama
121.7
125.1
118.6
126.2
125.6
133.4
77.9
76.5
72.4
65.0
61.7
57.7
53.2
Operations
121.7
125.1
118.6
126.2
121.4
128.4
72.9
72.1
68.0
60.8
57.5
53.5
53.2
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
0.0
IV. Coquimbo
15.5
18.3
17.6
17.0
26.1
24.9
16.3
16.0
15.9
15.9
15.8
15.0
14.8
Operations
15.5
18.3
17.6
17.0
22.1
19.5
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.5
8.7
8.6
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
5.4
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.1
V. Valparaso
15.3
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.2
13.0
12.8
12.6
10.5
10.3
Operations
15.3
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.2
13.0
12.8
12.6
10.5
10.3
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
XIII. Metropolitana
36.2
47.5
47.1
46.5
46.0
45.5
45.5
45.1
44.6
44.1
24.5
24.6
24.3
Operations
36.2
47.5
47.1
46.5
46.0
45.5
45.5
45.1
44.6
44.1
24.5
24.6
24.3
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
VI. O'Higgins
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Operations
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Projects
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
1,843.9
1,799.8
1,764.9
1,828.1
1,760.8
1,708.9
1,475.1
1,360.7
1,342.8
1,330.8
1,194.2
1,004.5
816.9
Operations
1,843.9
1,766.4
1,666.1
1,615.3
1,524.0
1,463.2
1,228.5
1,118.3
1,105.0
1,095.8
1,007.2
877.1
694.1
Projects
0.0
33.3
98.8
212.9
236.9
245.7
246.6
242.4
237.8
235.0
187.0
127.5
122.7
Antofagasta, maintains the leadership of copper production, making up 50.7% of the maximum
production expected by 2026. Even though the production of concentrates will increase by 100.6%,
this will only create an net increase of 50.7%, affected by the loss seen of 778.7 thousand tons of
SxEw cathodes, equaling -52.3% of the production from 2014.
Atacama will maintain the second place in copper production, with a high level of production
increase which will be raised specifically by an increase of almost 200%, coming not only from the
copper production initiatives, but also from the coproduction of the projects of gold and iron mining,
which would leave available a capacity of 980 thousand tons of fine copper, over the 430.8 thousand
tons produced in 2014. As in the Antofagasta region, the productive increase in concentrate will
help to reduce the productive loss coming from the hydrometallurgical operations, which will fall by
-56.3% by 2026. Furthermore, this region is affected by situations which will slow the development
of the projects, even more if we consider that the greater part of the projects from this region have
Chilean Copper Commission
43
a lesser probability of implementation within the time frames estimated by the companies (possible
and potential).
Valparaiso, in this report, displaces Tarapac as the third most important region, for two important
motives. The first is due to Tarapac suffering a strong decline in production towards 2024 where
four of the most important hydrometallurgical operations, Cerro Colorado, Quebrada Blanca,
Collahuasi, and Sagasca, stop operating, thereby losing almost 163 thousand tons of fine copper,
some of which are slightly recovered by the sulphuric operations of Collahuasi and the Quebrada
Blanca Hipgeno project. Tarapac, the third most important, bases the productive development
on the potential expansion of Collahuasi, however if it is not completed within the time frame, the
region will see the copper production capacity drastically reduced.
The second reason that it has passed the third place of productive growth to the region of Valparaso
is the implementation within the period of the expansion of Andina, with which it will increase the
production level from 290.2 thousand tons of fine copper registered in 2014 to 669.5 thousand tons
by 2026, creating an increase of 130.7%, which is the greatest regional increase during the period,
and slightly higher than the increase of Atacama.
Coquimbo will remain in fifth place, with contributions from El Espino, Domingo and the expansion
Marginal of Los Pelambres. Likewise, OHiggins will remain in the sixth place for growth, due to the
increase in production foreseen with the implementation of the Nuevo Nivel Mina in El Teniente,
and the Metropolitan region remains with a relatively stable production because of the contribution
to the Los Bronces -- Phase VII project.
Finally we can deduce that the mining investment will diminish in the northern zone of the country,
and stepping up in the center-south zone with the following offsetting of the productive increases
to this zone.
5.3.
The estimate of the contribution to the maximum production capacity thought 2026 for mineral
substances such as gold, silver, molybdenum, iron and industrial minerals will only be done on a
global level, and not yearly, different from what has been shown previously in the projections of
copper production.
For gold, molybdenum, and iron, the maximum production capacity is shown, according to the
background information of the compiled projects, comparing the current situation with respects to
the possible scenario toward 2026. In the case of silver, for being a co-product which depends on
the gold mining activities, only the maximum estimated production of the country will be seen for
each project, and the possible contribution to the maximum production capacity of the country once
the projects being their operations. For industrial minerals only the contributions for each project
considered in this portfolio will be shown.
5.3.1.
44
The summary of the contribution of the projects to the portfolio to the maximum production
capacity for gold and silver, respectively, is observed in table 19.
Table 19: Contribution to maximum production capacity of gold and silver according to project
MAX. PRODUCTION
Gold
(Kg Au
content)
Silver
(ton Ag
content)
2017
6,220
---
2016
2016
2017
2017
500
19,830
3,800
6,840
170
825
-----
2016
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
5,000
470
780
1,307
713
4,670
500
-----------
43,910
1,495
PROJECT
CONTROLLER
IMPLEMENTATION
The contribution of gold mining in Chile comes from two sources: directly from gold mining (primary
production) and as a co-product of copper mining (secondary production). Thanks to the
contribution of the registered projects, through 2026 the maximum production capacity of thus
metal could reach 80.5 tons of gold content, a 75% increase over the 46 tons registered in 2014.
In the case of silver, the projects in this report will reach some 1,495 tpa of silver by 2026 over the
current production, which in 2014 reached 1.572 tons of silver.
5.3.2.
Molybdenum production in the country is a by-product of copper mining. In the last 10 years
between 33.7 thousand and 48.8 thousand tpa of Mo concentrate has been recovered as
molybdenite (MoS2) wherein in 2014 reached the maximum production of the last decade.
Some copper projects in the investment portfolio also contemplate the reclaiming of molybdenum:
Chilean Copper Commission
a)
New projects which consider recovering molybdenum as a co-product of the future copper
concentrate production. For this effect the projects considered are: Actualizacin de
Esperanza, Spence Growth Project, Quebrada Blanca Fase II and Relincho.
b)
Initiatives which seek to expand or replace current concentrate production, and therefore,
will permit to maintain the stable current production of molybdenum and to supply new
production. Among the initiatives associated with this type of project are the structured
projects of CODELCO.
45
Controller
Maximum
Implementation production
(tpa)
2015
360
2015
6,000
2019 - 2022
10,000
2019
3,800
2020
2,000
2020
22,000
2020
5,200
2021
8,000
2022
5,100
2024
7,000
69,460
Therefore it is estimated that by 2026 the maximum capacity for molybdenum recovery will reach
95.6 thousand tpa, a 96% growth rate with respects to the production from 2014, which implies an
average yearly growth rate of 5.3% until 2026.
5.3.3.
The production level of iron mining reached 18.87 Mt of iron ore in 2014, equaling approximately
11.1 Mt of fine Fe content.10
The primary iron production or co-production projects in this update will contribute 18.8 Mt of iron
ore by 2026, making approximately 11.9 Mt of fine content iron.
The details of the estimated contribution of the projects is shown in table 21.
10
46
Controller
Implementation
Iron
minerals
Fine content
Iron mining
Romeral Fase V
Oso Negro
Dominga
CAP
Minera San Fierro
Andes Iron
2015
2016
2018
2,500
1,091
11,000
1,475
600
7,370
Capstone Mining
2017
4,200
2,478
18,791
11,923
Copper mining
Santo Domingo
To summarize, due to the project portfolio with direct iron production, or associated co-production,
the maximum production of the country by 2026 will be situated around 33.3 Mt of iron ore, which
reflects an 80% growth with respects to that registered in 2014.
5.3.4.
Industrial minerals
Among the investment projects in the area of saltpeter, is found the Pampa Blanca Expansion by
SQM, displaced in the previous time frame by two years, and the Arbiodo Project by Ingenieros
Asesores Ltda., linked to national capitals, which is in the process of restructuring the EIA presented
in March of 2015 and then withdrawn by the company. The first plans to increase the production
of iodide, by SQM to 10,000tpa of iodine equivalent and produce around 1,293,000 tpa of NaNO3.
The second initiative seeks to produce around 2,700 tpa of iodine and 400,000 tpa of nitrates,
including 20,000 tpa of boric acid.
In another area of non-metal mining, White Mountain Titanium with the Cerro Blanco project will
produce titanium dioxide (TiO2) at an estimated capacity of 200 ktpa of concentrate (95% TiO2), by
2016. It is worth noting that this project is only waiting for the investment decision, as in May of
2015 it received the approved RCA from the Environmental Evaluation Service.
47
The implementation of 6 projects considered in the 2014 portfolio, valued in US$ 7,587
million, which are excluded in the new portfolio.
b)
Ten initiatives were removed from the portfolio for restructuring or because the owning
companies are in the process of adjusting their assets, for which there is no clear date when
they are going to reinitiate the studies or the investment decision, which reach an estimated
investment in 2014 of US$ 28,223 million. Of these projects only El Morro was affected by
issues related with Convenio 169 of the OIT, which translated into the approved RCA being
annulled and a return to the pre-feasibility stage of engineering studies.
c)
Five new projects were incorporated into the portfolio with a value of US$ 5,580 million. Of
these, four correspond to copper mining, one of which is an expansion of Los Bronces, a
renewal project in Quebrada Blanca, which will allow for a future project of Sulphur, and
the new BHP Billiton project which plans to extend the lifespan of the Spence site through
a Sulphur line and the expansion of the Sulphur line and a new oxides line for the new
operations at Sierra Gorda, by KGHM. The fifth project belongs to industrial minerals
(Arbiodo).
d)
There are 10 projects which did not see any changes with respects to the report from 2014,
evaluated in US$ 11,103 million.
e)
The Escondida OGP I is the only project which only announced a modification in the
investment amount, from US$ 3,838 million estimated in 2014 to US$ 4,199 million, which
is a net increase of 361 million dollars.
f)
Furthermore for eight projects the companies have announced a delay in the previous
implementation date by one to three years, notwithstanding there not being a change in
the conditions of realization, nor in the budgeted investment amount, which reaches US$
18,416 million.
11
Considering Other development projects and Information projects of Codelco in both portfolios.
12
g)
48
The projects which are in this position are duly marked in tables 22 and 23, wherein the projects are
consigned to the list of projects in the portfolio with the variations registered with regards to the
previous year.
IMPEMENTATION
PORTFOLIO
2014
IMPLEMENTATION
PORTFOLIO 2015
REGION
CONDITION
PER
PORTFOLIO
2014
CONDITION
PER
PORTFOLIO
2015
Tarapac
Atacama
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Atacama
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
-------------
Atacama
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Tarapac
Coquimbo
PROBABLE
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
---------------------
Tarapac
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Metropolitana
Antofagasta
-----------
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Antofagasta
Atacama
Tarapac
Coquimbo
Atacama
Coquimbo
Antofagasta
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
BASE
BASE
BASE
BASE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO 2014
(MMUS$)
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO 2015
(MMUS$)
7,587
1,033
1,200
721
250
4,240
143
28,223
423
1,600
600
800
600
800
6,000
3,900
6,500
7,000
------------11,103
1,900
630
152
96
344
467
624
700
1,190
5,000
------------------------------------5,580
165
1,500
503
112
3,300
11,103
1,900
630
152
96
344
467
624
700
1,190
5,000
Source: Prepared by Cochilco, based on public information from the mining companies.
DIFFERENCE IN
INVESTMENT
2015 - 2014
(MMUS$)
-7,587
-1,033
-1,200
-721
-250
-4,240
-143
-28,223
-423
-1,600
-600
-800
-600
-800
-6,000
-3,900
-6,500
-7,000
5,580
165
1,500
503
112
3,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49
IMPLEMENTATION
PORTFOLIO 2014
IMPLEMENTATION
PORTFOLIO 2015
REGION
CONDITION
PER
PORTFOLIO
2014
CONDITION
PER
PORTFOLIO
2015
Antofagasta
BASE
BASE
Coquimbo
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Coquimbo
Tarapac
Atacama
BASE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
BASE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Atacama
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Atacama
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Atacama
Valparaso
Valparaso
BASE
BASE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
BASE
POTENTIAL
BASE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
BASE
PROBABLE
BASE
BASE
POSSIBLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
BASE
POSSIBLE
BASE
POTENTIAL
BASE
POSSIBLE
Various
Various
BASE
POSSIBLE
BASE
POSSIBLE
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO 2014
(MMUS$)
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO 2015
(MMUS$)
3,838
3,838
18,416
198
150
380
4,250
460
2,888
5,590
4,500
31,359
665
394
90
86
600
515
200
1,700
597
5,226
4,115
2,700
3,431
3,036
1,417
6,586
4,325
3,123
1,203
4,199
4,199
18,416
198
150
380
4,250
460
2,888
5,590
4,500
34,068
665
425
90
86
636
587
200
1,700
597
5,459
3,816
4,350
4,920
2,691
1,323
6,524
3,923
2,758
1,165
Source: Prepared by Cochilco, based on public information from the mining companies.
DIFFERENCE IN
INVESTMENT
2015 - 2014
(MMUS$)
361
361
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,709
0
31
0
0
36
72
0
0
0
233
-299
1,650
1,489
-345
-94
-62
-402
-365
-38
-27,562
50
Condition of
materialization
BASE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
BASE + PROBABLE
POSSIBLE + POTENTIAL
2014 2023
2015 - 2024
Investment
(MMUS$)
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity
23,431
6,286
25,808
49,326
29,717
75,134
22,3%
6,0%
24,6%
47,0%
28,3%
71,7%
17
6
15
15
23
30
21,139
10,206
27,464
18,481
31,345
45,945
27.4%
13.2%
35.5%
23.9%
40.6%
59.4%
13
11
13
5
24
18
In the previous table it is seen that the portfolio with the highest probability of completion within
the timeline estimated by the owning companies (base + probable) remain almost stable, in number
of investments as well as in investment amount (increase in US$ 1,628 million), however, it changes
from having a 28.3% participation of the total portfolio in 2014 to being 40.6% of the portfolio in
2015. It is possible to take from this comparison that two initiatives passed from probably to base,
one initiative in probable condition was removed from the portfolio for restructuring, and one is
added to the probable condition, specifically the Sierra Gorda expansion, and five advance from the
possible and potential conditions up to probable.
On the contrary, those initiatives with a lesser probability of maintaining the advancement terms
indicated by their owners and investors (possible and potential) diminished by almost 30%, due in
part to the removal of 9 initiatives from the potential category for restructuring13 and the change
of five projects to probable condition. However, to this group two new initiatives were added,
Arbiodo and Spence Growth Project as possible. This shows that the weakness of the investment
portfolio is in this group.
Table 25 shows the comparison according to mining type, wherein it is observed that the project
portfolio for copper is reduced by almost 17% due in part to the removal of the Escondida Nueva
Pila de Lixiviacin and Sierra Gorda, both of which have been in operation since the first trimester
of 2014, mainly because of the removal from the 2014-2024 portfolio the expansion initiatives of
Collahuasi and Los Pelambres.
13
Letter b) chapter 6, which indicates the removal of 10 of the initiatives of which 9 are potential and one
probable.
51
52
2014 - 2023
Type of mining
CODELCO
Large mining - Cu
Medium mining - Cu
Gold
Metallurgy Plants
Iron
Industrial Minerals
Copper
Gold
Other14
2015 2024
Investment
(MMUS$)
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity
Investment
(MMUS$)
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity
28,137
48,722
3,273
17,382
490
4,519
2,328
80,622
17,382
6,847
26.8%
46.5%
3.1%
16.6%
0.5%
4.3%
2.2%
76.9%
16.6%
6.5%
8
18
6
10
2
5
4
34
10
9
28,656
35,785
2,073
5,531
521
3,176
1,548
67,035
5,531
4,724
37.1%
46.3%
2.7%
7.2%
0.7%
4.1%
2.0%
86.7%
7.2%
6.1%
8
17
4
5
2
3
3
31
5
6
It is to be noted that the sector most affected is gold and silver mining, where the investment
portfolio was reduced by 68%, due to the removal of five initiatives, among which Cerro Casale and
El Morro stand out, the first affected indirectly by the problems which Barrick has had to deal with
to carry out Pascua Lama, while the second is due to problems related with communities and
investment reducing policies which the company GoldCorp has had on a worldwide level. The
comparison between the investment destination and the condition of the projects may be seen in
table 26.
Table 25: Comparison of portfolios 2015 and 2014 by type of mining and conditionality of the projects
2014-2023
Mining Type
CODELCO
Large mining - Cu
Medium mining - Cu
Gold
Metallurgy Plants
Iron
Industrial Minerals
Copper
Gold
Other14
2015-2024
BASE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
BASE
PROBABLE
POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL
7,971
11,329
152
0
490
1,541
1,948
19,942
0
3,489
0
1,613
0
4,673
0
0
0
1,613
4,673
0
17,130
2,890
1,221
1,209
0
2,978
380
21,241
1,209
3,358
3,036
32,890
1,900
11,500
0
0
0
37,826
11,500
0
12,817
7,451
152
0
521
198
0
20,941
0
198
0
4,404
597
4,450
0
90
665
5,001
4,450
755
13,148
8,840
624
1,081
0
2,888
883
22,612
1,081
3,771
2,691
15,090
700
0
0
0
0
18,481
0
0
14
2014 - 2023
Region
Investment16
(MMUS$)
2015 2024
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity17
Investment16
(MMUS$)
Part. % of
total
Project
Quantity17
Arica y Parinacota
0.0%
0.0%
Tarapac
13,590
13.0%
6,222
8.1%
Antofagasta
34,607
33.0%
17
34,134
44.2%
15
Atacama
31,005
29.6%
21
17,139
22.2%
13
Coquimbo
11,900
11.3%
4,900
6.3%
Valparaso
8,220
7.8%
8,141
10.5%
Metropolitana
649
0.6%
504
0.7%
O'Higgins
4,881
4.7%
6,249
8.1%
North Zone
Central-South Zone
91,102
13,749
86.9%
13.1%
47
4
62,395
14,894
80.7%
19.3%
36
6
15
North Zone corresponds to the regions of Arica and Parinacota to Coquimbo, while the Central-South Zone corresponds
to the regions of Valparaso, Metropolitana and OHiggins.
16
Other Codelco projects are distributed in the following manner for 2014 and 2015, respectively: Antofagasta 45% - 40%,
Atacama 5% - 12.5%, Valparaso 5% - 7.5%, Metropolitana 15% - 10% and O'Higgins 30% - 30%.
17
The "Other development projects " and "Information projects" initiatives are considered as to large projects in the total
amount of the portfolio, as their investments are broken down through the whole country.
53
7. Conclusions
Chile, like the rest of the world, has been greatly affected by the weakening of the price of
commodities, which has made the materialization or advance of mining initiatives difficult in the
past few years. Likewise, mining has been affected by a new treatment coming from the
communities wherein the projects will be installed.
Currently the portfolio of mining projects to be carried out within the next decade consists of 41
initiatives which will allow Chile to maintain its worldwide leadership in copper production and
increase significantly the production of gold and silver, of iron, and of some industrial minerals.
The relevant elements of this portfolio are not the global value, rather the composition in terms of
the number of initiatives, who is pushing them, the objectives, where they are found, and the efforts
being made to carry them out. From the analysis of the background information shown in this report
the following can be concluded:
Investment origin
For the first time, CODELCO presents an investment portfolio almost equal to that coming from the
private copper mines, which, beyond seeking a productive increase of the state, seeks to consolidate
the sustainable development in the long term, permitting the continuity of operations for the next
30 years. This portfolio reaches US$ 28,656 million, being 43% of the copper portfolio and 37% of
the total portfolio. CODELCO possesses 61% of the investments in base condition of Chilean copper
mining.
Only some private companies in large copper mining maintain investment plans of a similar
magnitude to those of CODELCO, among which stands out Antofagasta Minerals, with the
developments in Distrito Centinela in the community of Sierra Gorda, KGHM and the expansion of
the new operation of Sierra Gorda, BHP Biliton with the expansion projects of Escondida and the
continuity of operations in Cierro Colorado and Spence, the last with a line of sulphured minerals.
Following the same example is Teck with Quebrada Blanca Hipgeno and the Relincho project in
Atacama, and Freeport McMoRan, which after the sale of their assets in Atacama put all of their
efforts in the El Abra Mill project.
The investment in other minerals18 has been diminished with respects to the previous year,
specifically with respects to the previous year, specifically to gold mining, which has fallen by 68%.
The most affected is that which development potential in the Atacama region.
The investments come from 8 countries, led by Chile, with a 58.9% of total participation, coming
from the state and private mining. In the second place is Canada with a 21% participation, with
emblematic companies such as Tech Resources, Lindin Mining, (which was just acquired by
Candelaria), Barrick Gold, and other companies focused in investments in the medium copper mines
18
54
Investment purpose
On a global level, the purpose of developing greenfield initiatives reaches a 57.7% of the portfolio
total with around 22 projects, being relevant for all of the classifications with exception of the
investments carried out by CODELCO, being mainly brownfield.
The expansion of the operations as well as that of replacing the current production are especially
relevant for CODELCO, to assure its competitive position in the long term, as well as for the
conditions of depletion in which some of the most emblematic sites are found. For the expansion
projects 9 have been identified which make up 22.9% of the total investment, whereas for the
replacement 11 projects are considered, with a 19.4% of the investment total.
Investment Region
Antofagasta remains the principal investment destination, focused principally on copper mining,
with 22.3% of the total participation in the investment portfolio. Atacama is the second investment
destination, with 22.2% of the total investment participation, and is the only zone with investments
in gold mining (32% of the regional investment) as well as a significant investment in copper (62%
of the regional investment) as well as other minerals. Valparaso, Tarapac, the Metropolitana
region, and OHiggins only have copper investments, while Coquimbo has copper investments and
a significant iron Project with copper coproduction.
Investment conditionality
All mining initiatives may be affected by certain variables which affect their planned timeframe,
which are mainly the stage of advancement in construction or of their studies, obtaining of permits,
be it environmental or legal, financial strength of the operating companies, as well as other factors.
Therefore the initiatives with the greatest probability of materializing within the timeframes
indicated by the proprietary mining companies, which corresponds to the projects in base and
probable condition, correspond to 24 initiatives valued in US$ 31,345 million dollars.
In the group of projects which are in the possible and potential categories, which correspond to
those mining investments with lesser probability of being implemented within the timeframes
defined by the owners are also those most susceptible to being affected by changes in market
conditions, wherein we find 18 initiatives valued in US$ 45.945 million.
Conversely, the projects in execution reached 27.4% of the total portfolio with 13 initiatives, while
those projects in the feasibility stage correspond to 26 initiatives wherein 62.8% of the investment
total is concentrated.
55
The investment to be concreted during the next five year period, 2015-2024, US$ 44,894
million, equaling 58.1% of the portfolio, with an average yearly investment of US$ 8.979
million,
The remainder to be invested in the 2020-2024 period being those projects whose
implementation date is planned for this period, whose investment reaches US$ 16.981
million, making up 22% of the investment portfolio.
Among the investments to materialize during the next five year period, the group of projects in base
and probable condition make up 40% of the investment, with an average rate of US$ 3,592 million.
Furthermore, the group of initiatives in the possible and potential condition make up the remaining
60%, with an average yearly investment of US$ 5,386 million.
Considering a horizon of 2026, Chile has the potential of reaching a copper production capacity of
7.56 million tons of copper, a 31.6% increase over the production registered in 2014, if all of the
planned projects are carried out according to their timeframes, the maximum production registered
within this period would be reached in 2024, wherein the copper production would reach
approximately 7.84 million tons, 36.3% over the 2014 production.
This increase in production shows a structural change in the type of final product of the copper
operations, whereas as the production capacity in concentrates were to increase by 2.84 million
tons by 2026, a 72.7% increase over 2014, the SxEw cathode production would diminish by 1.03
million tons, registering a 55.7% decrease with respects to the same year.
This decrease in SxEw cathodes is principally due to the exhaustion of leachable resources and of
the closure of operations of some copper sites towards the end of the next decade, such as
Collahuasi, Sagasca, Quebrada Blanca, Mantos Blancos, Michilla, Las Cenizas, Franke, Mantoverde
and Carmen de Andacollo. Furthermore, it is observed that some of CODELCOs operations, such as
Chuquicamata (Hidrosur), Radomiro Tomic and Salvador, will reduce their production due to the
depletion of leachable resources.
56
Increase in the levels of processing and generating of tailings: if currently 10.849 tpd of fine
copper concentrate is produce, as a produce of the processing of 1.60 mtpd of sulphured
ore, and generate around 1.56 Mtpd of tailings (2014 amounts), the copper mining project
portfolio for 2015-2024 will increase the production of fine copper concentrate to 18.741
tpd, as a product of the processing of around 3.47 Mtpd of tailings by 2026. This means an
increase in daily treatment and tailings generation of around 121% to only increase daily
copper production by 32%.
57
: 3,617 Mt @ 0.46% Cu
Treatment Capacity
58
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
EIA presented
2019
Current Status
59
: 3,732 Mt @ 0.86% Cu
Treatment capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 4,920
Seawater usage
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Replacement
Execution
EIA approved
2021
Current Status
60
: 1,728 Mt @ 0.80% Cu
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 3,816
Seawater usage
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Replacement
Execution
EIA approved
2020
Current status
: The first stages have been completed, currently carrying out access
tunnel and transportation tasks. A gradual development of the
mine is planned, with production to commence in 2020.
61
: 5,771 Mt @ 0.75% Cu
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 6,524
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
Expansion
Feasibility
EIA presented
2024
Current status
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 1,323
Seawater usage
62
: This project does not modify the numbers of the Divisin Andina.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Replacement
Execution
N/A
2022
Current status
: The project is in the investment execution stage, as initiated in mid2013. The construction of all of the parts of the project will take 8
years due to the climatic conditions which impede surface work
during the winter months, being completely operational not before
2022.
Treatment Capacity
: 132 Ktpd.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 2,691
Seawater usage
Labor
: Not available
63
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Pre-Feasibility
Without EIA
2020
Current status
64
65
: XXXXXXXX
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 112
Labor
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Expansion
Feasibility
EIA presented
2017
Current status:
Project entered to the SEA through a DIA in November of 2014, waiting for environmental
approval.
2.2.
66
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 1,900
Labor
: Between 5,000 and 7,000 in the construction phase, and 1,400 in the operation
stage.
Seawater usage
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
New
Execution
EIA approved
2015
Current status:
67
The first optimization, called Tercera Actualizacin Proyecto Esperanza, with the DIA approved in May 2012,
seeks to increase the availability of critical inputs (water, inhibitors and process reactive, etc.), incorporating new
oxidized minerals resources in areas to later be used as dumps, and the construction of a new molybdenum
processing plant.
In this first optimization, the Planta de Molibdeno project represents the task with the greatest reach. The
location of the plant is in a sector close to the collective flotation, in the Esperanza sector next to the existing
concentrator plant. The process corresponds to a standard selective flotation circuit with a treatment rate of 5.5
Ktpd, with the following stages: primary flotation, cleaning flotation, filtering, drying and storage of the
Molybdenum concentrate produced. The end, or tailing of the process corresponds to the copper-ore
concentrate which will continue its processing in the current concentration plant.
The second optimization, denominated Cuarta Actualizacin del Proyecto Esperanza -Optimizacin del Proceso,
with a DIA presented in June of 2013, concentrates on the improvement of the current crushing and floating
systems, with the incorporation of a secondary and tertiary crushing plant as a complement of the current
processing capacity, as well as another concentrate thickener and another of tailings.
Once these improvements are concreted, Esperanza will have increased the treatment capacity of the
concentration plant of 12 ktpd, reaching 105 Ktpd to be treated. This increase is translated into approximately 19
Ktpa of Cu concentrate added to the current production of the operation. Furthermore, the molybdenum plant
will allow the company to produce around 2 ktpa of Mo during the useful life of the current operation,
substantially increasing the value chain.
Of these two initiatives, Optimizacin del Proceso is the most advanced, estimating that the increase in the
output of the plant to 105 Ktpd will be complete by the end of 2015. During 2013 the projects activities were
focused on the installation of the two additional tailings thickeners.
With respects to the construction of the molybdenum plant, Esperanza will continue evaluating the project, which
is currently in the feasibility Assessment phase. However, if it is approved, production could begin in 2016.
It is to be noted that due to the restructuring of the Distrito Centinela projects, Esperanza Sur was added to the
mining plan of Esperanza, increasing the operational reserves from 731.6 Mt with ore grades of 0.50% in copper,
0.011% of molybdenum, and 0.19 gpt of gold to 1,789.2 Mt with ore grades of 0.45% in copper, 0.013% of
molybdenum, and 0.16 gpt of gold. This would increase the useful lifespan of the current operations in Esperanza
by an additional 30 years.
Resources
: 3,244.7 Mt @ 0.38% Cu; 0.005% Mo; 0.12 gpt Au (measured, indicated and
inferred)
Treatment Capacity
: 12 ktpd of additional sulphured mineral over current capacity, plus 5.5 ktpd of
treatment in the molybdenum plant.
Estimated investment
Seawater usage
Labor
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Expansion
Execution
EIA approved
2015
Current status
68
Increasing the processing capacity: Consists of crushing, agglomeration, and leaching of 2,500,000 tons of
minerals, preferably stick, but eventually directly from one of more of the pits being mined in the site, in a
new comminution, agglomeration, and leaching plant. This increased processing capacity will allow for the
partial compensation for the decrease in the ore grade of the minerals being processed.
ii.
Gravel leaching: generated from minerals previously leached in a dynamic pit, but which for their remaining
copper content are profitable to reprocess (re-leaching) within the same pit as the existing gravel. It will be
benefitted by 3,000,000 tons yearly during the rest of the useful lifespan of El Tesoro.
iii.
Modification of the SX Plant and processing of solutions from third parties: in this case, the SX plant will
require modification, with the objective of allowing it to process solutions, in the short term, from the
Encuentro xidos project, and in the long term, from other oxide deposits which may exist in the area.
iv.
Carrying out drilling surveys: through diamond drilling and reverse airflow, in an area that was previously
explored within the mining properties of the current operation, specifically the area known as LlanoPaleocanal, located directly south and southeast of the Tesoro Noreste pit.
In the end of July of 2014, the project was approved by the SEA, with which the carrying out of the project
should have started in the end of August 2014.
Resources
: 346 Mt @ 0.45% Cu
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 86
Labor
: 460 workers in the construction stage and 270 in the operation stage.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Replacement
Execution
EIA approved
2016
Current status
69
: Projects with feasibility studies in progress and DIA approved in July of 2014.
Beginning construction at the end of August of 2014, it is projected that the
implementation will be in the middle of 2016.
70
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 636
Seawater usage
Labor
: 2,000 workers in the construction stage and 500 in the operation stage.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Replacement
Execution
EIA approved
2016
Current status
: 1,193.5 Mt @ 0.40% Cu; 0.014% Mo; 0.16 gpt Au (measured, indicated and
inferred)
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 4,350
Seawater usage
Labor
: No information available.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
EIA Presented
2019
Current status
71
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 1,190
Seawater usage
Labor
: No information available.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
Replacement
Feasibility
Without EIA
2018
Current status
: Project with feasibility Assessment being processed, and it is hoped that the EIA
of the project may be sent during the second semester of 2015. The company
estimates that the implementation would be during 2018.
2.3.
72
: No information
Treatment Capacity
: New concentration plant with capacity between 95,000 and 100,000 tpd.
Estimated investment
Seawater usage
:Use of desalinized sea water with an 800 l/s capacity plant, with possibility to
expand to 1,600 l/s.
Labor
: For the site between 1,550 and 4,100 workers are considered for construction,
and 220 for operation. For the desalinization plant around 1,380 in construction
and between 26 and 45 for operation.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
EIA presented
2019
Current status
: Project in feasibility stage, with approval process from the EIA presented in July
of 2015. If the EIA is approved, the operation could continue development
beginning in 2019.
73
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 4,199
Seawater usage
: Use of desalinized sea water coming from the current Coloso Plant. However the
company will be carrying out the studies necessary for a new desalinization plant,
which will boost the current one.
Labor
: Between 5,900 and 8,570 workers in the construction phase, and 739 in the
operational phase.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Expansion
Execution
EIA approved
2015
Current status
74
operation since 1994, and Cerro Colorado has a useful lifespan estimated until 2016, for the reserves considered
in the original project as well as for the water extraction permits which it has obtained for its processes.
In July of 2013 Pampa Norte S.A., affiliate of BHP Billiton in Chile, presented the project named Continuidad
Operacional which considers continuing the current operation, tapping the mineral reserves which have been
identified and economically evaluated within the framework of distinct prospection campaigns designed to
prolong the useful lifespan of the operation. The usage of these reserves would permit the company to extend
the current operation until 2023, without modification of the process, and maintaining the currently authorized
production level, at a pace of material movement (tailings and mineral) of around 217 ktpd, as a daily average,
with a maximum of around 261 ktpd during 2016.
It is to be noted that the project considers maintaining the same water extraction rate 150 l/sfrom the field
of wells located in Pampa Lagunillas.
During July of 2015 the company delivered to the environmental authorities a third Addendum, in which it
replied to a new round of concerns from the public service sector with competence for the evaluation. It is
hoped that after the presentation of the document, the project may be voted upon, and eventually approved.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: Not available
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 467
Seawater usage
: No used
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Replacement
Feasibility
EIA presented
2017
Current status
2.4.
: Project in feasibility, with EIA approval process presented in July of 2013. If this
EIA is approved, the operation could continue development beginning in 2017.
75
With the available information it is postulated that usage of the sulphur resources be used to recover over 100
ktpa fine Cu and 470 kg in gold from the copper concentrates, as well as the coproduction of some 4Mtpa of iron
resources (magnetite and hematite) in Fe concentrates through the magnetic concentration of the tailings from
floatation.
The copper concentrate will be filtered and later transported from the Mine-Plant Area in trucks to the Port area
for storage and then shipping. On the other hand, the magnetite concentrate will be transported by a
concentration duct to the Port Area, where it will be washed, filtered, and stored until shipping.
Once the decision has been made to build the project, implementation should take place approximately 3 years
later. The total budget of Santo Domingo for 2014 is US$ 29.8 million to continue the engineering tasks and for
obtaining permits.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: 70 ktpd of sulphur mineral during the first 5 years, the will remain stable at
63.5 ktpd of sulphur ores.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 1,700
Seawater usage
: Considers a plant which will produce 12.5 l/s of desalinized water (2.5 l/s for
concentrate washing and worker consumption, and 10 l/s for storage for the
usage of the community of Diego de Almagro). Also, it considers a water impulsion
pipeline for seawater of 112 km with a nominal flowrate of 389 l/s.
Labor
: Between 1,550 and 4,060 workers in the construction phase, and 1,055 for the
operation.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
New
Feasibility
EIA approved
2018
Current status
: Approval of RCA in July of 2015. It is hoped that the work may commence in the
end of 2015 and the implementation to begin in 2018.
76
a) Increase the useful life until 2030 of the open pit and subterranean mines; deposits of the North and
Nantoco areas; processing plant, Port-Warehouse and Warehouse Candelaria aqueduct, water supply;
electrical energy supply and distribution, and desalinization plant.
b) The extension of the useful lifespan from 2017 to 2019 of the current tailings deposit called Candelaria,
and from 2023 to 2030 to the port installations in Puerto Punta Padrones. Also a new tailings deposit
called Los Diques will be made, with an approximate capacity of 600 Mt.
c) Increase in the storage capacity of the North and Nantoco dumps, by approximately 610 and 140 Mt
additionally, respectively.
Resources
: 2,034 Mt @ 0.43% Cu
Treatment Capacity
: Between 9.8 ktpd and 24.2 ktpd additional of sulphur ores (65.8 ktpd currently)
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 460
Seawater usage
: New aqueduct of 500 l/s, parallel to the one in existence and with the same
characteristics, which will provide desalinized water for the operation.
Labor
: 970 on average and 1,700 maximum during the construction phase, and 2,600
average in the operational phase (1,200 of our own workers and 1,400
contractors).
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Replacement
Feasibility
EIA approved
2018
Current status
: In feasibility, with the EIA presented in September of 2014, and waiting for
approval. In July of 2015 the SEA approved the EIA of the project, for which it is
now waiting for the new owner to define the construction date of the same.
77
The company continues advancing in the feasibility Assessment of the project, with the purpose of evaluating in
the best way the potential of a crushing operation on a large scale and achieve greater recovery. Also it has not
discarded the existence of synergies with neighboring projects, especially with respects to obtaining water for the
project.
Resources
: 2,034 Mt @ 0.43% Cu
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 5,000
Seawater usage
: A desalinization and water impulsion project is considered, very much like the RT
Sulfuros Fase II project.
Labor
: Not available.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Feasibility
With EIA
2021(e)
(e) = estimated
Current status
: The company indicates that the advances of this project will depend on the
technical studies, economic factors, and conditions of the world market. Due to
the slow advance of the studies phase of this project, Cochilco estimates a delay
in the implementation date defined in the previous report, wherein the project
should be entering into operations not before 2021.
: 1,642.9Mt @ 0.32% Cu; 0.011% Mo; 0.035 gpt Au (measured, indicated and
inferred)
Treatment Capacity
: 110 ktpd of additional sulphur mineral over the current 110 ktpd.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 1,500
78
Seawater usage
: The current operation includes a seawater impulsion system with an intake from
the effluent of the cooling system from the Mejillones thermoelectric center. The
range of seawater is 1,315 l/s and of desalinized water of 63 l/s, and the impulsion
tube is 142 km.
Labor
: No information.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Expansion
Feasibility
EIA presented
2017(oxides) and
2019 (sulphides)
Current status
2.7.
: No information
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 165
79
Seawater usage
: Not considered
Labor
: Between 223 and 256 during construction, 564 for operation and between 728
and 1,300 for closing.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Replacement
Feasibility
EIA presented
2016
Current status
: Project entered into the SEA in July of 2014 with ICSARA delivered in May of
2015.
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 5,590
Seawater usage
: Considers a desalinization plant with a water intake from the Punta Patache Port.
The impulsion system is made of a 170 km pipeline with an estimated flow rate of
1,300 l/s.
80
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Feasibility
Without EIA
2020
Current status
: Project with the feasibility Assessment in optimization of the capital costs. The
Environmental Impact Assessment is in the process of being updated, due to the
company being in the process of obtaining permits for the existing installations.
The immediate expectations of the Company indicated that the EIA of the
Hypogene project will not be presented again before the end of 2015. Based on
this, the construction could being in mid-2017 with implementation for 2020.
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
Seawater usage
Labor
: No information available
Condition of materialization
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Feasibility
Without EIA
2022(e)
81
(e) = estimate
Current status
: Project with the feasibility Assessment finished in 2014. During 2015 the project
optimization studies will be continued. This scenario will delay the normal
development of the project, for which Cochilco delays the implementation
projection by a year with respects to the projection from the 2014 report, now
being estimated for 2022.
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 152
Seawater usage
: Not considered
Labor
: 595 workers in the construction phase and 178 workers during operations.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Expansion
Execution
EIA approved
2015
Current status
: Feasibility Assessment finished in the beginning of 2014, and EIA approved in July
of 2014. The implementation is estimated for the end of 2015, after almost 2
years of construction on the project.
3.2.
82
: Without information
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 597
Seawater usage
: Desalinization plat located in the area of the concentration plant. The flow rate
for desalinization would be of 1,865 m3/day and provide desalinized water for
lesser processes, the greater consumption amounts would be direct seawater (not
desalinized)
Labor
: 595 workers in the construction phase and 178 in the operation phase.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
New
Feasibility
EIA approved
2018
Current status
3.3.
83
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 700
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Prefeasibility
Without EIA
2018
Current status
3.4.
84
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 624
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: 2,900 workers in the construction stage and 700 workers in the operation stage
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
EIA presented
2017
Current status
: Project carrying out the feasibility Assessment and with EIA presented in April of
2013. The company foresees the termination of the feasibility Assessment and the
approval of the EIA during 2015, to begin operations not before 2017.
85
Resources
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 425
Seawater usage
Labor
: Between 570 and 950 in the construction phase and 185 in that of operations.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
New
Execution
EIA approved
2016
Current status
4.2.
86
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 96
Seawater usage
Labor
: Between 120 and 300 in the construction phase, and 60 to 90 for operations.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
New
Execution
EIA approved
2016
Current status
: Project in execution. Currently has RCA approved from November 2013, with
which the implementation is expected for the beginning of 2016.
87
In June 2013, Atacama Pacific Gold signed a joint venture agreement with Eton Chile, an affiliate of Exeter
Resources who is developing the Caspiche project, for the exploration of potential sources of subterranean water
in the shared properties of Cuenca Dos and Laguna Verde, in the Atacama Region.
Also, in July of 2013, the company signed an agreement for the purchase of 2.5 million cubic meters of water per
year, which represents a flow rate of 80 l/s with the company Aguas Chaar S.A, to supply the demand of water
for the alternative of the processing plant of 65ktpd. However, the agreement indicates that it is possible to
increase the water usage rate to meet the demands of 80 ktpd of processing, equivalent to 100 l/s.
According the company declarations, in July of 2014 the feasibility Assessment was advanced in the modifications
of the processing type and of the mining plan to be considered. Likewise, the company indicated that it was
waiting for estimates from providers with respect to the purchase of equipment and some elements for the
infrastructure. The closing of the negotiations, as the end of the feasibility, was expected for the third trimester
of 2014.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: MMUS$ 587.
Seawater usage
: Not considered
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
Without EIA
2018
Current status
88
: Project with feasibility finished in the middile of August 2014 and in the process
of negotiating with equipment and infrastructure providers. Currently preparing
Assessment to register with the SEA, with which, implementation will not begin
before 2018.
89
the metal dore19 is obtained, and a concentration plant for the impervious mineral (17%), from which a copper
concentrate rich in gold and silver is obtained.
The total projected production would reach 850 koz/ year, in gold and 35,000 koz/year of silver (26 tpa of gold
and 1,100 tpa of silver approximately), of which 75% would be considered Chilean production. The marginal
content of copper in the concentrate is not availbale.
The company suspended20 construction work on the Chilean side of the Pascua Lama project while it worked on
environmental requirements and other types of regulations to satisfy Chilean authorities. Meanwile the activities
considered for the environmental protection will be continued as they have been authorized. The construction
activities in Argentina, wherein the greatest part of the key infrastructure of Pascua Lama is located, which
includes the processing plant and tailings tank, were paralyzed also, even though they have been finished.
According to the company, the reduction finishing (ramp down) is programmed for the middle of 2014. The
company expects to have approximately US$ 300 million21 in costs during 2014 to carry out the ramp down and
to comply with the environmental and social obligations. The remaining tasks for project implementation will be
done in stages, with specific budgets and work programs, with the purpose of ease in project planning, as well as
to control the costs of the same. Barrick will explore opportunities to improve the projects economy and effective
materialization, including strategic associations or payment of royalties and other agreements for the income
flow. The company maintains an active option of restarting the development of this mining activity, which has a
useful lifespan of 25 years.
It is to be noted that in July of 2014, Barrick signed a memorandum of understanding with 15 of the 18 Diaguita
communities in the Huasco valley, which considers a six month horizon for these to see, through their
representatives and first hand, the main impact of the gold and copper projects, as well as the control measures
and mitigation.
This memorandum of understanding is aligned with the standards of the Convenio 169 of the OIT, to which Chile
is subscribed.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: 33 ktpd of mineral during the first 3 years and 44 ktpd for the rest of the useful
lifespan of the project.
19
Dore metal is a gold and silver alloy, of variable proportions which are molded into bar form. It is obtained from the recovery process of the noble ores
present in the minerals and is one of the typical forms of commercializing mined gold. Later the alloy is submitted to a refining process wherein the gold
and silver content are separated, for their respective markets.
20
This occurred after the Appeals Court of Copiap accepted a no-innovation order (ONI) for the project, and in July of 2013 ratified the momentary
suspension of the project, after a protection resource was presented by five indigenous communities from the Huasco Valley, referring to a series of
environmental irregularities such as the destruction of the Toro 1, Toro 2, and Esperanza glaciers, located in the vicinity of the mine site, and the
contamination of the hydrological resources, as a result pf the deposit of waste rock, without being operative the acid draining plant which would impede
such. New information is expected at the end of May. It is to be noted that the project has already been fined two times for more than $160 million in
March and April.
21
It is hoped to capitalize approximately 25%, related to the water management systems and finish some minor work in Argentina and Chile. The current
expenses will depend on a number of factors including the environmental requirements and regulations.
90
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 4,250 (Equivalent to the part of the project budget to be raised in Chile,
of a total of MMUS$ 8,500)
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: 6,000 workers maximum in the construction phase, and 1,660 workers in the
operational phase.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
New
Execution
2017(e)
Current status
: Execution suspended for external factors. The company indicated that the
decision to recommence the project development will depend on an
improvement in the economic situation and lesser uncertainty with respects to
the legal and regulatory requirements. With this information Cochilco estimates
the project implementation will not occur before the end of 2017.
Open pit operation, 10 years of useful lifespan, to remove oxide resources and recover gold through heap
leaching, at a rate of 30 ktpd;
91
ii.
Open pit operation with an 18 year useful lifespan, to use oxide resources (years 1 to 5) at 60 ktpd to
recover gold through heap leaching and sulphide resources (years 6 to 18) in a concentration plant of
27ktpd to produce copper and, later, to recover gold through cyanide leaching.
iii.
Mixed operation, open pit with a useful lifespan of 5 years to recover oxidized gold ore through heap
leaching at 60 ktpd and subterranean operations (sublevel open stop) to extract sulphur mineral and
process it in a concentrator plant of 27 ktpd to produce copper, and later, recover gold through cyanide
leaching.}
As declared by the company, it would opt for a staged development, wherein it would chose the first
alternative, valued in US$ 344 million, to recover the oxidized gold ore through heap leaching at a rate of 30
ktpd for 10 years to produce 148,000 oz of Au equivalent during the first 5 years and then 122,000 oz of AU
equivalent the rest of the useful lifespan. However this option does not show, with improved market
conditions, what could be the most costly alternative (number three) with a value of US$ 1,968 million.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: 30 ktpd of oxidized ore (with the possibility of increasing to 60 ktpd and generate
a sulphurs line of 27 ktpd).
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 344 (could increase to MMUS$ 1,968 if the third alternative is developed
to complement the project).
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
Without EIA
2017(e)
(e) = estimated
Current status
92
These three deposits currently have combined mineral resources of 29.7 Mt with average ore grades of 0.25 gpt
of gold and 79 gpt of silver, equivalent to 1.9 million ounces of gold equivalent.
The project initially considered developing the remaining resources of the previous development, considering the
installation of a processing plant for these minerals with a capacity of 6 ktpd, to produce 250 kg/y of gold and 100
tpa of silver during the 15 years of useful lifespan estimated for the project.
At the beginning of 2013 the company established a definitive work agreement meeting the Convenio 169 of the
OIT with the indigenous communities affected by the project, with the purpose of diminishing any possible impact.
In July, the SEA delivered the approved RCA for the project, with which the company hoped to begin construction
in September of 2013.
Due to a lack of electrical supply, in the most advanced stages of engineering the project should have considered
the generation of electricity, incorporating technology which required lesser consumption, changes which would
be implemented within the borders of the property which is in sub-conjunction with the area already evaluated
for the EIA: However, and in accordance with the current environmental codes, the changes introduced were
submitted for approval to the regional authorities in the area of the Environmental Evaluation System in a new
Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA) called Modificaciones Arqueros, entered in April of 2014.
However, in May 2014 the SEA of Atacama placed an early termination to the environmental evaluation of the
Environmental Impact Declaration of the Modificaciones Arqueros project, generating a new delay for the
beginning of construction, foreseen for the summer period of 2014/2015. Therefore, the company, in July of 2014
resubmitted the EIA of the project, correcting the lack of information requested by authorities and meeting the
requirements which where suggested during the period in which it was in the SEIA. Notwithstanding, in May of
93
3025, the company retracted the DIA from the environmental impact evaluation system, due to the development
of new mineral reserves in the Chimberos area.
The modifications considered in the project contemplate adding the Chimberos and Teterita pits, with a common
dump, as well as mineral processing through cyanide leaching in a permanent heap and the addition of a
thermoelectric plant. The modifications to the project also require adjustments be made in relations to the
crushing plant and complementary tasks, which includes the installation of a mineral transportation belt from the
plant to the cyanide leaching area.
Also, as is mentioned in the Environmental Impact Declaration, and in accordance with the current identification
of the mining reserves and the definition of the treatment capacity, the project will have a useful lifespan of eight
years. The additional material which will be extracted and which will feed the plant during the useful lifespan will
be around eight million tons, therefore the amount of additional tailings sent to the dumps will be around 27
million tons. The treatment capacity, including the processing of minerals from the Arqueros pit has already been
approved environmentally, and increases by 3 million tons per year, equivalent to 78.5 ktpd, with which an
average of 500kg/ y of gold and 170 tpa of silver.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 150
Seawater usage
: Not considered
Labor
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
Without EIA(*)
2017
Current status
94
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 200
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: 100 workers in the construction phase and 80 workers in the operation stage.
95
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Replacement
Feasibility
EIA presented
2018(e)
(e) = estimated
Current status
96
Sector Dominga: considers the associated installations in two zones of mineral development through strip
mining called Rajo Norte and Rajo Sur; a processing plant, a gravel deposit, and a heavy tailings deposit,
as well as all of the auxiliary work and installations associated with these procedures.
Sector Lineal: considers a system of subterranean aqueducts which will transport the water from the
Totoralillo sector to the Dominga sector. It also contemplates a subterranean concentrator duct which
would send iron ore from the Dominga area to Totoralillo; an electricity transmission line of 66kV and a
service road.
Sector Totoralillo: corresponds to the Shipping Terminal for iron concentrate which will reunite, also, the
thickening, filtering, and storage system installations, as well as the areas for collection, desalinization,
and water impulsion to the Dominga Sector, and the discharge of the seawater brine.
The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was presented in2013, however the company began a dialogue with
the la Higuera community in 2011, with the purpose of creating awareness of the project with anticipation with
the communities possibly affected by the project.
Resources
Treatment Capacity
: 95 ktpd of ores
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 2,888
Seawater usage
: Desalinization plant located in the Totoralillo Norte area, with a 450 l/s capacity.
Labor
: 9,800 workers in the construction phase, and 1,450 in the operational stage.
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
New
Feasibility
EIA Presented
2019
Current status
97
: No information available.
Treatment Capacity
: No information available.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 198
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: Currently in the site there are 427 company workers and around 633
contractors, with estimates of an additional 200 workers in the construction
phase and 425 in the operational phase (company + contractors).
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
BASE
Expansion
Execution
EIA approved
2015
Current status
98
: The EIA of the project received the approval of the RCA during the second
semester of 2013, beginning construction immediately. Currently the company is
studying the economic viability of the El Romeral mine, because of the low iron
prices. Therefore the implementation would be for 2015.
: No information available.
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 90
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: 220 workers in the construction phase and 500 workers in the operation phase.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POSSIBLE
New
Feasibility
EIA presented
2016(e)
(e) = estimated
Current status
: Due to the delay in the approval of the EIA, presented in 2012, Cochilco estimates
that the projects implementation will not be before 2016.
99
: No information available.
Treatment Capacity
: 400,000 t/year of nitrate prills, 20,000 tons/year of boric acid and 2,7800
tons/year of iodine.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 503
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: Between 325 and 400 workers in the construction stage and 250 and 450
workers in the operational stage.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
POTENTIAL
New
Feasibility
EIA presented
2017
Current status
: Project with EIA presented in March of 2015 with a request for early termination
for issues not corrected in May of 2015.
: No information available.
Treatment Capacity
: No information available.
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 665
Seawater usage
: Not considered.
Labor
: 765 workers in the construction phase and 510 workers in the operational
phase.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
Expansion
Execution
EIA approved
2017
Current status
: Project with DIA approved in October of 2013. Currently the company indicates
that the project is under evaluation due to market conditions.
The
implementation is not estimated before 2017.
Treatment Capacity
Estimated investment
: MMUS$ 380
Seawater usage
: Desalinization plant located close to the Huasco community, with a 980 l/s
capacity.
Labor
: During the construction phase an average of 765 workers will be hired. During
the operation phase an average of 510 workers will be hired.
Condition of materialization
Condition
Project Type
Stage of advance
SEA permit
Implementation
PROBABLE
New
Feasibility
EIA approved
2017
Current status
Production processes
Flot
Flotation
Lix
Leaching
SX
Solvent extraction
EW
Electro-winning
Geographic Abbreviations
m.s.n.m.
Meters above sea level
UTM
Universal Transversal Mercator
Types of societies
Ca.
Company
Inc.
Incorporated
Int.
International
Ltda.
Limited
Ltd.
Limited
S.A.
Limited Liability Company
SCM
Contractual Mining Society
CCM
Contractual Mining Company
Other
Ind.
Min.
RCA
DIA
EIA
SAG
API
PND
Industrial
Mineral
Environmental Qualification Resolution
Declaration of Environmental Impact
Environmental Impact Assessment
Semi-autogenous
Authorization of Investment Projects
Business and Development Plan
This report was elaborated in the Department of Studies and Public Policies by