Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 63

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

New Hampshire
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1336 Registered Voters


November 15-19, 2015

5.2%

1. Would you say things in this country today are...


Generally headed in the right direction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Off on the wrong track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican
Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%

5.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release


6. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%


Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
7. Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%


He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%

8. Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%


He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

9. Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you
feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

Ready
27%
49%
48%
44%
42%

Not ready
54%
40%
32%
39%
44%

Not sure
19%
11%
20%
16%
14%

10.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
11. If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could
actually do the things theyre talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Very confident he/she could do them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%


Somewhat confident, and would give him/her a chance to try . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not confident yet, but electing him/her would at least send a message about the
direction we need . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

12. How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to
support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Somewhat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%

13. Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
14. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants?
Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Fill jobs Americans


wont do
Drive down
Americans wages
Are generally
hard-working people
Have broken the law
and should be
penalized or
deported
Harm national
security

Agree

Disagree

47%

53%

77%

23%

52%

48%

86%

14%

83%

17%

15.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release


16.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release


17. On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on
which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Immigration
Matters of faith and
religion
Handling ISIS
Same sex marriage

Must agree with you


63%

Okay with some


differences
37%

17%
66%
25%

83%
34%
75%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
18.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release


19.

Asked of Democratic primary voters

Held for future release


20. Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Invite
39%
40%
32%
41%
38%
40%
55%

Not Invite
61%
60%
68%
59%
62%
60%
45%

21. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?


Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%

22. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*


Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
23. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

24. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?


Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

25. Are you male or female?


Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%

26. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
27. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

28. What is the highest level of education you have completed?


HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire
1. Direction of country
Would you say things in this country today are...
Gender
Generally headed in the right direction
Off on the wrong track
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

25%
66%
9%

30%
60%
10%

21%
71%
8%

25%
66%
10%

27%
64%
9%

22%
69%
9%

28%
62%
10%

26%
65%
9%

9%
78%
13%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(595)

(738)

(177)

(329)

(617)

(211)

(1,213)

100%

(1,334)

(15)

(15)

(90)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

86%
7%
2%
1%
3%
1%

90%
7%
2%
0%
1%
0%

82%
8%
3%
1%
4%
2%

64%
12%
5%
0%
17%
2%

89%
9%
1%
0%
0%
1%

89%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%

91%
7%
2%
0%
0%
0%

86%
8%
3%
1%
2%
1%

95%
2%
0%
0%
1%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(597)

(738)

(178)

(329)

(618)

(210)

(1,214)

100%

(1,335)

(15)

(15)

(90)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

3. 2016 Primary Turnout


In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

32%
35%
10%
23%

32%
42%
8%
19%

33%
29%
12%
26%

35%
31%
31%
3%

39%
28%
10%
23%

32%
35%
5%
28%

22%
48%
7%
23%

33%
35%
10%
22%

28%
37%
9%
27%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(597)

(739)

(178)

(329)

(618)

(211)

(1,215)

100%

(1,336)

(15)

(15)

(90)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

4. First Choice Republican Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%
1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%

3%
7%
5%
12%
7%
0%
1%
0%
1%
9%
1%
10%
11%
1%
33%
0%

10%
13%
5%
8%
4%
0%
1%
3%
0%
6%
0%
2%
15%
0%
32%
0%

15%
0%
6%
8%
5%
0%
5%
14%
0%
4%
0%
16%
14%
0%
15%
0%

3%
12%
6%
14%
3%
0%
2%
0%
0%
7%
0%
13%
8%
0%
32%
0%

6%
9%
4%
10%
6%
0%
1%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
14%
0%
39%
0%

5%
15%
6%
7%
9%
0%
0%
0%
2%
9%
0%
0%
15%
3%
27%
0%

7%
10%
6%
9%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1%
8%
0%
5%
14%
1%
31%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(329)

(295)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(136)

(566)

(4)

(2)

(50)

5.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

6. Enthusiasm for First Choice


How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

50%
38%
12%

49%
38%
13%

51%
39%
10%

31%
52%
18%

51%
44%
5%

51%
36%
13%

57%
31%
12%

51%
39%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(619)

(324)

(294)

(65)

(124)

(293)

(135)

(565)

(4)

(2)

(46)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

7. Favorite Trump Characteristic


Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

18%
56%
0%
26%
0%

16%
56%
0%
27%
0%

19%
56%
1%
24%
0%

16%
58%
0%
26%
0%

17%
56%
0%
27%
0%

100%

100%

100%
(94)

100%

(108)

100%

(202)

(10)

(42)

(115)

(36)

(176)

(3)

(2)

(20)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

8. Favorite Carson Characteristic


Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

17%
10%
5%
56%
11%

18%
11%
5%
54%
12%

100%

100%
(60)

(22)

(38)

(0)

(15)

(25)

(20)

(56)

(0)

(0)

(4)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

27%
54%
19%

21%
63%
16%

33%
45%
22%

14%
59%
27%

29%
53%
18%

29%
54%
17%

25%
55%
20%

28%
53%
20%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(603)

(318)

(285)

(65)

(120)

(289)

(129)

(546)

(4)

(2)

(50)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

10. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%
40%
11%

48%
42%
10%

50%
37%
13%

45%
44%
10%

54%
36%
11%

54%
37%
9%

35%
47%
17%

48%
40%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(609)

(324)

(285)

(65)

(126)

(288)

(129)

(552)

(4)

(2)

(50)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

11. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

48%
32%
20%

46%
37%
18%

50%
26%
24%

36%
19%
45%

51%
33%
16%

48%
35%
17%

51%
28%
21%

48%
30%
22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(324)

(287)

(65)

(126)

(291)

(128)

(553)

(4)

(2)

(50)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

12. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

44%
39%
16%

43%
45%
12%

46%
33%
21%

50%
37%
13%

37%
49%
14%

44%
40%
16%

48%
31%
21%

45%
38%
17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(608)

(318)

(291)

(65)

(123)

(287)

(132)

(552)

(4)

(2)

(50)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

13. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

42%
44%
14%

36%
51%
13%

50%
36%
15%

54%
29%
17%

32%
54%
14%

47%
43%
10%

36%
44%
20%

44%
42%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(612)

(325)

(287)

(65)

(127)

(290)

(129)

(555)

(4)

(2)

(50)

14.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

15.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

16.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

17. Confidence in Candidate Choice


If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

48%
45%
6%

48%
43%
9%

49%
47%
4%

56%
44%
0%

51%
49%
0%

49%
44%
7%

42%
44%
13%

50%
45%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(620)

(325)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(293)

(133)

(562)

(4)

(2)

(50)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

18. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote


How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

17%
24%
25%
33%

15%
22%
27%
36%

19%
26%
23%
31%

8%
50%
23%
19%

15%
13%
29%
42%

15%
25%
25%
35%

28%
21%
23%
28%

18%
24%
27%
31%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(329)

(295)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(136)

(567)

(4)

(2)

(50)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

19. Troops to Fight ISIS


Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

65%
35%

61%
39%

68%
32%

55%
45%

58%
42%

69%
31%

66%
34%

65%
35%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(611)

(327)

(285)

(65)

(124)

(291)

(130)

(555)

(4)

(2)

(49)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

20. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

47%
77%
52%
86%
83%

46%
76%
56%
83%
80%

46%
73%
44%
85%
82%

44%
85%
48%
86%
98%

31%
80%
57%
89%
83%

48%
75%
43%
86%
82%

57%
67%
59%
72%
69%

49%
74%
51%
83%
80%

(623)

(328)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(135)

(565)

(4)

(2)

(50)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

21. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

53%
23%
48%
14%
17%

53%
23%
42%
17%
18%

50%
22%
50%
11%
16%

56%
15%
52%
14%
2%

69%
20%
41%
9%
17%

51%
25%
54%
12%
16%

35%
24%
31%
24%
25%

49%
23%
45%
14%
18%

(623)

(328)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(135)

(565)

(4)

(2)

(50)

22.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

23.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

24. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

63%
37%

60%
40%

66%
34%

61%
39%

59%
41%

62%
38%

68%
32%

62%
38%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(328)

(289)

(65)

(128)

(293)

(131)

(559)

(4)

(2)

(50)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

25. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

17%
83%

16%
84%

18%
82%

9%
91%

19%
81%

16%
84%

21%
79%

16%
84%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(324)

(286)

(65)

(128)

(284)

(133)

(555)

(2)

(2)

(49)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

26. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

66%
34%

62%
38%

71%
29%

77%
23%

58%
42%

64%
36%

73%
27%

65%
35%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(618)

(328)

(291)

(65)

(124)

(293)

(136)

(562)

(4)

(2)

(50)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

27. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

25%
75%

28%
72%

21%
79%

14%
86%

26%
74%

22%
78%

35%
65%

23%
77%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(325)

(292)

(65)

(128)

(292)

(131)

(560)

(3)

(2)

(49)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

28.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

29.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

30.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

31.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

32.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

33.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

34.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

35.

Asked of Democratic primary voters


Held for future release

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

36. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

39%
61%

43%
57%

35%
65%

26%
74%

36%
64%

41%
59%

45%
55%

37%
63%

59%
41%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(528)

(615)

(137)

(273)

(533)

(199)

(1,065)

100%

(1,142)

(4)

(6)

(65)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

37. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

40%
60%

42%
58%

38%
62%

21%
79%

41%
59%

42%
58%

45%
55%

38%
62%

56%
44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(523)

(615)

(135)

(277)

(530)

(195)

(1,061)

100%

(1,138)

(3)

(6)

(65)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

38. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

32%
68%

34%
66%

30%
70%

23%
77%

28%
72%

32%
68%

45%
55%

31%
69%

43%
57%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(616)

(137)

(276)

(533)

(194)

(1,062)

100%

(1,140)

(4)

(6)

(65)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

39. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

41%
59%

44%
56%

38%
62%

29%
71%

33%
67%

41%
59%

58%
42%

40%
60%

54%
46%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(609)

(139)

(277)

(522)

(195)

(1,056)

100%

(1,134)

(3)

(6)

(66)

26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

40. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

38%
62%

38%
62%

38%
62%

32%
68%

32%
68%

39%
61%

48%
52%

39%
61%

30%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(521)

(614)

(134)

(271)

(524)

(206)

(1,060)

100%

(1,135)

(4)

(3)

(66)

27

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

41. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

40%
60%

36%
64%

44%
56%

27%
73%

41%
59%

44%
56%

38%
62%

41%
59%

24%
76%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(526)

(600)

(135)

(275)

(519)

(197)

(1,047)

100%

(1,126)

(4)

(6)

(67)

28

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire

42. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

55%
45%

59%
41%

51%
49%

60%
40%

65%
35%

53%
47%

43%
57%

56%
44%

51%
49%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(533)

(607)

(138)

(277)

(525)

(199)

(1,060)

100%

(1,140)

(4)

(6)

(68)

29

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

624 Likely Republican Primary Voters


November 15-19, 2015

6.3%

1. First Choice Republican Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%
1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%

2%
7%
0%
15%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
16%
15%
0%
34%
0%

7%
15%
4%
13%
8%
0%
2%
4%
0%
3%
0%
3%
14%
0%
28%
0%

7%
7%
10%
6%
5%
0%
1%
0%
0%
17%
0%
6%
14%
0%
24%
0%

2%
10%
3%
16%
5%
0%
0%
4%
0%
3%
0%
12%
9%
0%
35%
0%

9%
9%
7%
6%
7%
0%
2%
0%
1%
11%
0%
2%
16%
1%
29%
0%

9%
18%
2%
12%
6%
0%
2%
0%
0%
2%
0%
7%
18%
0%
24%
0%

5%
7%
6%
10%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1%
10%
0%
6%
12%
1%
32%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(111)

(242)

(198)

(245)

(359)

(145)

(442)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%

3%
7%
5%
12%
7%
0%

10%
13%
5%
8%
4%
0%

15%
0%
6%
8%
5%
0%

3%
12%
6%
14%
3%
0%

6%
9%
4%
10%
6%
0%

5%
15%
6%
7%
9%
0%

7%
8%
3%
10%
5%
0%

5%
12%
7%
10%
7%
0%

continued on the next page . . .

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

continued from previous page


Age group

Gender
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%

1%
0%
1%
9%
1%
10%
11%
1%
33%
0%

1%
3%
0%
6%
0%
2%
15%
0%
32%
0%

5%
14%
0%
4%
0%
16%
14%
0%
15%
0%

2%
0%
0%
7%
0%
13%
8%
0%
32%
0%

1%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
14%
0%
39%
0%

0%
0%
2%
9%
0%
0%
15%
3%
27%
0%

2%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
17%
0%
36%
0%

1%
3%
1%
7%
0%
8%
10%
1%
27%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(329)

(295)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(136)

(301)

(293)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

2. Enthusiasm for First Choice


How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

50%
38%
12%

73%
27%
1%

51%
44%
6%

42%
39%
19%

57%
37%
6%

46%
38%
16%

57%
37%
6%

48%
38%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(619)

(111)

(238)

(198)

(242)

(358)

(141)

(441)

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

50%
38%
12%

49%
38%
13%

51%
39%
10%

31%
52%
18%

51%
44%
5%

51%
36%
13%

57%
31%
12%

55%
37%
7%

47%
40%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(619)

(324)

(294)

(65)

(124)

(293)

(135)

(300)

(288)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

3. Favorite Trump Characteristic


Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters

Ideology
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

18%
56%
0%
26%
0%

32%
47%
0%
21%
1%

18%
52%
1%
29%
0%

19%
65%
0%
16%
0%

18%
60%
0%
21%
0%

100%

100%

100%
(103)

100%

(86)

100%
(202)

(38)

(67)

(47)

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

(35)

Age group

(142)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

18%
56%
0%
26%
0%

16%
56%
0%
27%
0%

19%
56%
1%
24%
0%

16%
58%
0%
26%
0%

19%
50%
0%
31%
0%

19%
59%
0%
22%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(94)

100%

(108)

100%

(202)

(107)

(79)

(10)

(42)

(115)

(36)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

4. Favorite Carson Characteristic


Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters

Ideology
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

17%
10%
5%
56%
11%

100%
(60)

(8)

(36)

Totals
(Weighted N)

(14)

Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs

Evangelical

Total

(25)

(33)

(26)

Age group

(32)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

17%
10%
5%
56%
11%

100%
(60)

(22)

(38)

(0)

(15)

(25)

(20)

(24)

(36)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

5. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

27%
54%
19%

36%
47%
16%

32%
41%
26%

14%
69%
17%

30%
45%
25%

22%
62%
16%

47%
26%
27%

18%
66%
16%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(603)

(109)

(235)

(186)

(232)

(351)

(145)

(423)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

27%
54%
19%

21%
63%
16%

33%
45%
22%

14%
59%
27%

29%
53%
18%

29%
54%
17%

25%
55%
20%

30%
54%
16%

24%
53%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(603)

(318)

(285)

(65)

(120)

(289)

(129)

(292)

(281)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

6. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%
40%
11%

58%
33%
9%

45%
39%
16%

39%
51%
10%

58%
28%
14%

42%
48%
10%

40%
42%
18%

50%
41%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(609)

(109)

(236)

(192)

(239)

(351)

(144)

(430)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

49%
40%
11%

48%
42%
10%

50%
37%
13%

45%
44%
10%

54%
36%
11%

54%
37%
9%

35%
47%
17%

55%
36%
9%

42%
44%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(609)

(324)

(285)

(65)

(126)

(288)

(129)

(294)

(287)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

7. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

48%
32%
20%

76%
9%
15%

53%
25%
22%

34%
46%
19%

67%
16%
17%

33%
44%
23%

68%
9%
23%

40%
41%
19%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(111)

(233)

(194)

(241)

(350)

(145)

(430)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

48%
32%
20%

46%
37%
18%

50%
26%
24%

36%
19%
45%

51%
33%
16%

48%
35%
17%

51%
28%
21%

50%
30%
20%

48%
31%
21%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(324)

(287)

(65)

(126)

(291)

(128)

(293)

(287)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

8. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

44%
39%
16%

56%
34%
11%

51%
32%
18%

38%
44%
18%

49%
40%
11%

40%
40%
20%

59%
21%
19%

38%
48%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(608)

(109)

(235)

(192)

(235)

(354)

(144)

(428)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

44%
39%
16%

43%
45%
12%

46%
33%
21%

50%
37%
13%

37%
49%
14%

44%
40%
16%

48%
31%
21%

49%
33%
18%

42%
45%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(608)

(318)

(291)

(65)

(123)

(287)

(132)

(294)

(284)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush


Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

42%
44%
14%

33%
56%
11%

46%
41%
13%

46%
38%
16%

35%
51%
14%

46%
40%
14%

40%
38%
21%

42%
46%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(612)

(107)

(237)

(195)

(238)

(354)

(142)

(434)

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

42%
44%
14%

36%
51%
13%

50%
36%
15%

54%
29%
17%

32%
54%
14%

47%
43%
10%

36%
44%
20%

46%
38%
16%

39%
48%
13%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(612)

(325)

(287)

(65)

(127)

(290)

(129)

(296)

(286)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

10. Confidence in Candidate Choice


If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

48%
45%
6%

74%
23%
2%

44%
54%
3%

42%
51%
7%

59%
38%
3%

40%
51%
9%

53%
42%
5%

46%
47%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(620)

(111)

(241)

(198)

(245)

(355)

(145)

(439)

Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

48%
45%
6%

48%
43%
9%

49%
47%
4%

56%
44%
0%

51%
49%
0%

49%
44%
7%

42%
44%
13%

57%
41%
2%

42%
50%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(620)

(325)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(293)

(133)

(300)

(289)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

11. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote


How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

17%
24%
25%
33%

22%
17%
21%
41%

24%
26%
22%
28%

8%
25%
31%
36%

15%
27%
25%
33%

19%
22%
23%
35%

28%
27%
18%
28%

12%
24%
26%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(111)

(242)

(198)

(246)

(359)

(145)

(443)

Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all

Tea Party

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

17%
24%
25%
33%

15%
22%
27%
36%

19%
26%
23%
31%

8%
50%
23%
19%

15%
13%
29%
42%

15%
25%
25%
35%

28%
21%
23%
28%

21%
24%
25%
31%

15%
23%
25%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(624)

(329)

(295)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(136)

(301)

(293)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

12. Troops to Fight ISIS


Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

65%
35%

58%
42%

75%
25%

55%
45%

68%
32%

61%
39%

71%
29%

61%
39%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(611)

(108)

(233)

(197)

(242)

(350)

(142)

(435)

Gender
Favor
Oppose

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

65%
35%

61%
39%

68%
32%

55%
45%

58%
42%

69%
31%

66%
34%

69%
31%

58%
42%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(611)

(327)

(285)

(65)

(124)

(291)

(130)

(293)

(288)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

13. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

47%
77%
52%
86%
83%

30%
85%
38%
93%
96%

49%
75%
48%
85%
83%

48%
67%
65%
75%
66%

30%
91%
40%
92%
87%

57%
64%
58%
78%
76%

38%
79%
54%
88%
88%

50%
73%
51%
82%
79%

(623)

(110)

(242)

(198)

(245)

(358)

(145)

(442)

Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

47%
77%
52%
86%
83%

46%
76%
56%
83%
80%

46%
73%
44%
85%
82%

44%
85%
48%
86%
98%

31%
80%
57%
89%
83%

48%
75%
43%
86%
82%

57%
67%
59%
72%
69%

46%
76%
42%
86%
88%

47%
74%
58%
81%
74%

(623)

(328)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(135)

(300)

(293)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

14. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)

(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

53%
23%
48%
14%
17%

69%
15%
59%
6%
3%

47%
20%
46%
11%
14%

50%
31%
32%
24%
31%

66%
6%
55%
6%
10%

41%
34%
39%
20%
22%

61%
20%
45%
11%
11%

47%
24%
45%
16%
19%

(623)

(110)

(242)

(198)

(245)

(358)

(145)

(442)

Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

53%
23%
48%
14%
17%

53%
23%
42%
17%
18%

50%
22%
50%
11%
16%

56%
15%
52%
14%
2%

69%
20%
41%
9%
17%

51%
25%
54%
12%
16%

35%
24%
31%
24%
25%

52%
22%
53%
11%
10%

51%
23%
40%
18%
23%

(623)

(328)

(294)

(65)

(128)

(294)

(135)

(300)

(293)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

63%
37%

72%
28%

64%
36%

52%
48%

72%
28%

56%
44%

57%
43%

63%
37%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(108)

(238)

(197)

(245)

(353)

(143)

(438)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

63%
37%

60%
40%

66%
34%

61%
39%

59%
41%

62%
38%

68%
32%

62%
38%

64%
36%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(328)

(289)

(65)

(128)

(293)

(131)

(300)

(287)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

16. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

17%
83%

28%
72%

21%
79%

5%
95%

24%
76%

12%
88%

35%
65%

11%
89%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(109)

(240)

(195)

(243)

(348)

(142)

(432)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

17%
83%

16%
84%

18%
82%

9%
91%

19%
81%

16%
84%

21%
79%

20%
80%

11%
89%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(610)

(324)

(286)

(65)

(128)

(284)

(133)

(299)

(282)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

17. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

66%
34%

73%
27%

69%
31%

55%
45%

70%
30%

62%
38%

64%
36%

65%
35%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(618)

(110)

(239)

(197)

(241)

(358)

(141)

(442)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

66%
34%

62%
38%

71%
29%

77%
23%

58%
42%

64%
36%

73%
27%

66%
34%

64%
36%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(618)

(328)

(291)

(65)

(124)

(293)

(136)

(300)

(289)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

18. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage


On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

25%
75%

35%
65%

24%
76%

20%
80%

29%
71%

23%
77%

41%
59%

20%
80%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(108)

(241)

(195)

(242)

(355)

(142)

(439)

Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

25%
75%

28%
72%

21%
79%

14%
86%

26%
74%

22%
78%

35%
65%

20%
80%

28%
72%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(617)

(325)

(292)

(65)

(128)

(292)

(131)

(298)

(289)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

19. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

59%
41%

64%
36%

62%
38%

46%
54%

70%
30%

51%
49%

55%
45%

59%
41%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(609)

(108)

(235)

(195)

(242)

(348)

(139)

(434)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

59%
41%

59%
41%

59%
41%

41%
59%

61%
39%

63%
37%

60%
40%

64%
36%

55%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(609)

(324)

(285)

(65)

(124)

(288)

(131)

(290)

(289)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

20. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

62%
38%

77%
23%

68%
32%

56%
44%

75%
25%

52%
48%

80%
20%

55%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(606)

(105)

(235)

(194)

(240)

(346)

(140)

(430)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

62%
38%

63%
37%

61%
39%

40%
60%

70%
30%

63%
37%

62%
38%

64%
36%

62%
38%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(606)

(318)

(287)

(64)

(128)

(284)

(129)

(288)

(287)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

21. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

54%
46%

81%
19%

61%
39%

37%
63%

70%
30%

42%
58%

74%
26%

46%
54%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(607)

(106)

(235)

(194)

(238)

(349)

(141)

(431)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

54%
46%

51%
49%

57%
43%

37%
63%

51%
49%

54%
46%

66%
34%

57%
43%

55%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(607)

(320)

(287)

(65)

(126)

(287)

(127)

(293)

(284)

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

22. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

61%
39%

68%
32%

71%
29%

51%
49%

60%
40%

60%
40%

75%
25%

54%
46%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(598)

(101)

(230)

(195)

(233)

(347)

(139)

(424)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

61%
39%

59%
41%

63%
37%

41%
59%

53%
47%

61%
39%

79%
21%

70%
30%

55%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(598)

(318)

(281)

(65)

(128)

(277)

(128)

(286)

(283)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

23. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

51%
49%

43%
57%

59%
41%

46%
54%

48%
52%

51%
49%

53%
47%

49%
51%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(595)

(100)

(232)

(192)

(230)

(346)

(131)

(428)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

51%
49%

47%
53%

55%
45%

57%
43%

37%
63%

52%
48%

57%
43%

57%
43%

47%
53%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(595)

(318)

(277)

(65)

(122)

(279)

(129)

(285)

(280)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

24. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

12%
88%

1%
99%

6%
94%

18%
82%

2%
98%

20%
80%

4%
96%

15%
85%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(586)

(97)

(226)

(193)

(226)

(341)

(132)

(420)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

12%
88%

14%
86%

11%
89%

0%
100%

11%
89%

14%
86%

16%
84%

6%
94%

13%
87%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(586)

(314)

(272)

(64)

(124)

(271)

(127)

(273)

(284)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters

25. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders


Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

26%
74%

10%
90%

14%
86%

47%
53%

27%
73%

27%
73%

16%
84%

30%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(592)

(100)

(227)

(194)

(232)

(341)

(133)

(424)

Gender
Invite
Not Invite

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

26%
74%

36%
64%

15%
85%

19%
81%

34%
66%

28%
72%

18%
82%

20%
80%

32%
68%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(592)

(317)

(275)

(64)

(124)

(276)

(128)

(277)

(286)

26