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International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, investor relations activities involve a coordinated efforts which are supported by all relevant
government agencies, i.e. Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board,
Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Industry, State Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, State Asset Management Company, and the Central Bureau of
Statistics.
IRU also holds an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of
banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices.
Wiwit Widyastuti K. (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279)
Abdurohman (Fiscal Policy Office Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 384 6379)
Subhan Noor (Debt Management Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 381 0175)
E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id
Table of Content
Executive Summary
Improved International Perception and Rising Investment
Preserved Macroeconomic Stability
Prudent Fiscal Management
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Economic growth accelerated in Indonesia during the fourth quarter of 2014 in comparison to the preceding quarter, despite annual growth
for 2014 slowing down. The Indonesian economy achieved 5.01% (yoy) growth in the fourth quarter, up from 4.92% (yoy) in the previous period.
Despite early signs of improvement during the fourth quarter of 2014, annual growth slowed in 2014 to 5.02%, which is lower than that posted in the
preceding year, consistent with weaker global economic growth and macroeconomic stabilization policy. Stronger economic growth is projected in
2015, in the range of 5.4-5.8%, bolstered by expansive government investment as fiscal capacity expands to catalyze productive economic activity,
including infrastructure development as approved in the 2015 budget.
The Indonesia balance of payments (BOP) improved in the fourth quarter of 2014, primarily due to a smaller current account deficit. The
current account deficit totaled US$6.2 billion (2.81% of GDP) in the fourth quarter, down from US$7 billion (2.99% of GDP) in the third. A growing nonoil/gas trade surplus, together with a decreasing oil and gas deficit, helped boost current account performance. Meanwhile, the financial and capital
account recorded a large surplus, backed predominantly by foreign direct investment (FDI) congruent with the positive perception investors hold
concerning the domestic economic outlook. In January 2015, the trade surplus totaled US$0.7 billion, exceeding that posted in the preceding quarter,
bolstered by a smaller oil and gas deficit.
Inflation remained under control, thus supporting the prospect of achieving the 2015 inflation target, namely 41%. The Consumer Price
Index (CPI) experienced deflation of 0.24% (mtm) in January 2015 as a tangible outcome of lower fuel prices and less intense inflationary pressures on
volatile foods. In addition, core inflation was controlled at a level of 0.61% (mtm) or 4.99% (yoy).
Financial system stability was maintained with the support of steadfast banking system resilience and relatively sound financial market
performance. Banking industry resilience remained solid with credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk well mitigated and the support of a healthy
capital base. At the end of the reporting quarter, the Capital Adequacy Ratio soared to 19.40%, well above the statutory minimum of 8%, while nonperforming loans (NPL) were low and stable at around 2.0%.
On 17th February 2015, the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors decided to lower the BI Rate 25 bps to 7.50%, with the Deposit Facility rate
also reduced 25 bps to 5.50% and the Lending Facility rate maintained at 8.00%, effective 18th February 2015. Such policy measures were
instituted based on Bank Indonesias conviction that inflation will remain under control at the lower end of the 41% range in 2015 and 2016.
Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen its monetary and macroprudential policy mix, bolster the payment system and intensify
coordination with the Government in terms of controlling inflation, reducing the current account deficit and promoting structural reforms in order to
support higher economic growth.
On the fiscal front, Indonesia will continue its prudent fiscal management in 2015 with strong commitment to fiscal consolidation. Recent
reform policy represents an essential step and integral part of structural reforms to strengthen economic fundamentals in Indonesia. 2015 revised
4
budget deficit is projected at a safe level of 1.91% of GDP.
Executive Summary
* Preliminary Figures
GDP Growth
Inflation
Balance of Payments
Executive Summary
Central Government Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
35%
Debt Composition
33.0%
120%
28.3%
30%
26.2%
25%
24.4%
24.0%
26.2%
24.7%
100%
80%
20%
52.1%
47.4%
46.3%
45.1%
44.5%
46.8%
43.3%
44.1%
47.9%
52.6%
53.7%
54.9%
55.5%
53.2%
56.7%
55.9%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jan-15
60%
15%
40%
10%
5%
20%
0%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Domestic Debt
Foreign Debt
End of Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP
4,954,028.9
5,613,441.7
6,422,918.2
7,427,086.1
8,241,864.3
9,083,972.2
10,542,700.0
1,636,740.7
783,855.1
852,885.6
1,590,656.1
836,308.9
754,347.2
1,681,656.5
902,823.4
778,833.1
1,808,946.8
993,038.2
815,908.6
1,977,706.4
1,097,993.2
879,713.2
2,375,495.5
1,263,928.6
1,111,567.0
2,604,932.6
1,477,516.7
1,127,415.8
33.0%
15.8%
17.2%
28.3%
14.9%
13.4%
26.2%
14.1%
12.1%
24.4%
13.4%
11.0%
24.0%
13.3%
10.7%
26.2%
13.9%
12.2%
24.7%
14.0%
10.7%
forum.
Optimization of oil & gas lifting and cost recovery, as well as the
agents of
Moody's
Ba1
Investment grade
Baa3 / Stable
Moodys
Ba2
Ba3
B1
B2
B3
CCC+
BBB-
S&P
BB+
Dec-13
Mar-13
Jul-12
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-08
Jan-08
May-07
Aug-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
May-04
Aug-03
Dec-02
Mar-02
Jun-01
Sep-00
Dec-99
Mar-99
CCC
Investment grade
BB+ / Stable
BB
28 April 2014
BB-
The sovereign credit ratings reflect the economy's low per capita income, a
relatively weak policy environment, and rising external leverage from a
moderate level. These rating constraints are weighed against the country's
well-entrenched cautious fiscal management and resultant modest general
government debt and interest burden, which make for a favorable debt
profile.
S&P
B+
B
BCCC+
BBB-
Fitch
BB+
Dec-13
Mar-13
Jul-12
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-08
Jan-08
May-07
Aug-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
May-04
Aug-03
Dec-02
Mar-02
Jun-01
Sep-00
Dec-99
Mar-99
CCC
BBB- / Stable
Investment grade
BB
B+
Positive Watch
Positive Outlook
B-
Negative Outlook
Caa1
Stable Outlook
Dec-13
Mar-13
Jul-12
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-08
Jan-08
May-07
Aug-06
Nov-05
Feb-05
May-04
Aug-03
Dec-02
Mar-02
Jun-01
Sep-00
Dec-99
Caa2
Mar-99
Fitch
BB-
Sound macroeconomic
management has bolstered
policy credibility and external
resiliency in Indonesia.
GDP growth is projected to be
sustained at 5.1 percent in 2015
- Recovery in investment
demand
- More buoyant manufacture
exports
Inflation is expected to return to
2015 target band (4.0 1
percent) by the end of next year.
Current account deficit is
projected to decline to around
2 percent of GDP in 2015,
supported by rising manufacture
exports as well as a lower oil
import bill.
Risk
Global headwinds from
weakening commodity prices
and tightening financial
conditions.
Slowdown in emerging market
trading partners and surges in
global financial market volatility.
Risk
Slower projected global recovery
could weaken commodity price
trajectory in the next few years.
Several implementation
challenges faced by the new
government, including a complex
domestic political environment.
Asian Development
Outlook
(December 2014)
10
OECD
Economic
Forecast
(November
2014)
Growth is projected to
remain moderate through
2015 before picking up
somewhat in 2016
due largely to an
acceleration in investment
and firming consumption.
Economic growth has
continued to slow as
investment and exports
have softened, although
`
household consumption is
holding up.
The current account has
widened again, and the
rupiah has depreciated as a
result.
The recent second round of
cuts in fuel subsidies lift
headline inflation, but core
measures should remain
well anchored,
Risk
Downside risks to this outlook
center on further deterioration
of export performance and
changes in market sentiment
that cause capital outows
Risk
Risks to the outlook are
mainly on the external side.
11
2012
I
5.5
5.5
6.7
6.5
4.5
3.0
1.6
3.5
8.0
2.9
6.0
5.6
Economic Growth
2012
4.6
3.0
5.6
10.1
3.3
6.6
5.4
7.1
6.6
12.3
9.5
7.4
7.4
2.1
8.2
8.0
5.8
6.0
I
4.2
0.9
4.7
9.8
3.5
5.4
3.0
7.4
7.0
10.6
13.2
8.9
7.8
1.6
11.7
6.9
5.6
5.6
2013
II
III
IV
5.2
5.4
5.4
6.4
6.7
12.8
3.2
12.4
7.9
2.1
1.3
9.4
0.9
4.9
(-0.9)
5.6
5.5
5.6
- Supply Side
2013
II
III
4.6
3.5
0.7
2.7
5.4
3.7
4.7
2.4
3.6
4.7
6.3
6.5
4.8
4.9
8.9
8.3
7.0
6.9
11.4 10.1
11.0
9.2
7.7
5.4
7.6
8.2
(-2.1) 6.4
3.2
8.6
5.2
8.3
5.6
6.2
5.6
5.5
IV
4.6
2.7
4.2
4.4
4.5
6.2
6.1
8.9
6.3
9.5
3.5
4.3
8.0
3.8
9.4
10.7
8.2
5.6
2013
5.4
8.2
6.9
4.2
1.9
5.6
2013
4.2
1.7
4.5
5.2
4.1
6.1
4.7
8.4
6.8
10.4
9.1
6.5
7.9
2.4
8.2
7.8
6.4
5.6
I
5.4
23.7
6.1
3.2
5.0
5.1
2014
II
III
5.1
5.1
22.8
5.6
(-1.5)
1.3
1.4
4.9
0.4
0.3
5.0
4.9
IV
5.0
(-0.2)
2.8
(-4.5)
3.2
5.0
I
5.3
(-2.0)
4.5
3.3
3.6
7.2
6.1
8.4
6.5
9.8
3.2
4.7
10.3
2.9
5.2
7.7
8.4
5.1
2014
II
III
5.0
3.6
1.1
0.8
4.8
5.0
6.5
6.0
3.2
2.8
6.5
6.5
5.1
4.8
8.5
8.0
6.4
5.9
10.5
9.8
4.9
1.5
4.9
5.1
10.0
9.3
(-2.5)
2.6
5.4
7.3
8.5
9.9
9.5
9.5
5.0
4.9
IV
2.8
2.2
4.2
6.5
2.7
7.7
3.5
7.1
4.9
10.0
10.2
5.3
9.7
6.9
7.1
6.1
8.4
5.0
2014
5.1
12.4
2.0
1.0
2.2
5.0
2014
4.2
0.5
4.6
5.6
3.0
7.0
4.8
8.0
5.9
10.0
4.9
5.0
9.8
2.5
6.3
8.0
8.9
5.0
12
13
(USD tn)
0.88
Increase in infrastructure
investment to improve overall
efficiency
60,740
Female
39,340
21,980
0.43
2007
2012
2017E
2007
2012
176.1
172.4
2017E
Source: KPMG, Ernst and Young, Jefferies Economist Intelligence Unit, Ministry of Finance, BPS and CIA World Factbook
(1) Working age defined as being between 15-54 years old
145.1
145.8
2012
2013
2014
2015
Realized Realized* Budget
Rank
(1)
Country
2008
(2)
2014
Health and
primary
education
Higher
education and
training
Goods
market
efficiency
Labor
market
efficiency
Financial market
development
Technological
readiness
Market
size
Business
sophistication
Innovation
Institutions
Infrastructure
Macro-economic
Environtment
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
Score
(2)
Spain
29
35
3.8
6.0
3.8
6.3
5.2
4.3
3.9
3.8
5.4
5.4
4.4
3.7
Thailand
34
31
3.7
4.6
6.0
5.8
4.6
4.7
4.2
4.6
3.9
5.1
4.4
3.3
Indonesia
55
34
4.1
4.4
5.5
5.7
4.5
4.5
3.8
4.5
3.6
5.3
4.5
3.9
Turkey
63
45
3.9
4.6
4.8
5.8
4.7
4.6
3.5
4.2
4.3
5.3
4.3
3.4
Italy
49
49
3.4
5.4
4.1
6.4
4.8
4.3
3.3
3.3
4.8
5.6
4.8
3.7
South Africa
45
56
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.7
3.8
5.4
3.9
4.9
4.5
3.6
Mexico
60
61
3.4
4.2
5.0
5.7
4.0
4.2
3.7
4.1
3.6
5.6
4.1
3.3
Brazil
64
57
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.7
4.9
3.8
3.8
4.3
4.2
5.7
4.3
3.3
Philippines
71
52
3.9
3.5
5.8
5.4
4.4
4.3
4.0
4.4
3.8
4.7
4.3
3.5
Countries with sovereign ratings in the Eaa1-Baa1 category and population larger than 40 million
(2)
2014
2
1
4
3
5
7
6
10
9
8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Source:
(1)
Country / Region
India
Indonesia
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Mexico
Brazil
USA
Russia
Myanmar
No. of Companies(1)
229
228
218
176
155
101
83
66
60
55
45.9
45.7
43.7
35.3
31.1
20.2
16.6
13.2
12.0
11.0
Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) FY2014 Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese
Manufacturing Companies
71
59.9
57.9
42.1
41.3
41.2
36.2
33.3
32.2
31.3
30.3
29.6
24.3
18.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% of surveyed who plan to invest in each country
14
Investment Realization in Jan-Dec 2014 is Rp463.1 trillion, an increase around 16.2% from the same period in previous year (Rp398.6 trillion). The
value of investment is based on investment realization report by the DDI and FDI companies (Oil and Gas, Banking, Non-Bank Financial Institution,
Insurance, Leasing and SMEs are excluded).
Foreign Direct Investment realization along the year 2014 based on sectors (five leading sectors) were: Mining (US$ 4.67 billion); Food Industry (US$
3.14 billion); Transportation, Warehouse, and Telecommunication (US$ 3.00 billion); Metal, Machinery, and Electronic Industry (US$ 2.47 billion); and
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry (US$ 2.32 billion).
Investment Realization Progress Q4-2014
Source: BKPM
*)Revised 2014 Investment Target, BKPMs Strategic Planning 2010 2014
Source: BKPM
15
Source: BKPM
Source: BKPM
Source: BKPM
Disaggregation of Inflation
Consensus Forecast
17
Amid slower than expected global economic recovery, the current account performance
improved. The current account deficit in Q4/2014 was lower than the deficit of US$7.0 billion
(2.99% of GDP) in Q3/2014. This improvement was mainly driven by increased trade surplus in
line with a rise in non-oil & gas trade surplus and decline in oil and gas trade deficit. However,
the current account deficit in Q4/2014 was bigger than the deficit of US$4.3 billion (2.05% of
GDP) in the same period in 2013, primarily due to weak performance of non-oil & gas exports
and widened oil & gas trade deficit .
For the whole 2014, current account improved with deficit amounted to US$26.2 billion
(2.95% GDP), lower than US$29.1 billion (3.18% GDP) in 2013.
Investors' positive perception on Indonesias economic prospect and remained
attractive yields encouraged foreign capital influx that could fully financed the current
account deficit. In Q4/2014, the capital and financial account surplus was supported by
inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and other investment surplus sourced from
withdrawal of domestic private sector's deposits abroad and corporates foreign loans.
However, the surplus was lower than that in Q3/2014 amounted to US$14.7 billion due to
foreign capital outflows from Rupiah portfolio instruments in December 2014 triggered by
rising investor concerns related to the planned Fed Fund Rate hike following release of
improved US economic data.
The capital and financial account surplus in 2014 amounted to US$43.6 billion, an increase
from US$22.0 billion in 2013. Higher surplus was boosted by positive investor confidence in
Indonesia's economic outlook.
20
Foreign portfolio investment charted a tiny outflows in Q4/2014 due to foreign capital outflows from rupiah portfolio instruments in
December 2014 triggered by elevated investors worries related to the planned Fed Funds Rate hikes.
For the whole 2014, foreign portfolio investment inflows reached US$23.4 billion, almost double than US$12,1 billion inflows recorded in 2013.
Pressures on the rupiah persisted into January 2015 as the US dollar continued to appreciate in light of the ECBs plan to loosen its monetary policy stance, which was
repeated in a number of other countries.
On average, the rupiah depreciated 1.21% (mtm) to a level of Rp12,581 per US dollar.
Bank Indonesia considers the recent rupiah fluctuations beneficial in terms of the current account deficit through lower imports, in particular of consumer goods, as
well as greater export competitiveness, especially of manufacturing exports.
International Reserves
Indonesia's official reserve asset position as of end-January 2015 reached U.S.$114.2
billion, up from the end of December 2014 level of U.S.$111.9 billion.
Increasing reserves were mainly attributable to receipts of the global bonds issued by
Government, foreign currency deposits of banks at Bank Indonesia, Governments oil
and gas export proceeds, and other Government revenue in the form of foreign
currency that exceed the needs of Government external debt payments.
Official reserve assets at the end of January 2015 can adequately cover 6.8 months of
imports or 6.6 months of imports and servicing of government external debt
repayment, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at 3 months
of imports.
22
BI Rate
(%)
8.00
7.75
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.25
7.00
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.75
5.50
5.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
23
Source: Bank Indonesia
In January 2015, the Capital Adequacy Ratio soared to 19.50%, well above
the statutory minimum of 8%, while non-performing loans (NPL) were low
and stable at around 2.2%.
In terms of the intermediation function, credit growth decelerated to 11.6%
(yoy) from 13.2% (yoy) at the end of the third quarter in line with ongoing
economic moderation. Meanwhile, deposit growth in December 2014 was
12.3%, down from 13.3% in the preceding quarter.
In line with an expected economic upswing, deposit and credit growth are
projected to accelerate respectively to 14-16% and 15-17%.
On the other hand, capital market performance improved as the IDX
Composite continued to rally.
CAR Comfortably High, NPL Favorably Low
24
25
Sustainable
Revenue Source
Quality of
Spending
Manageable
Fiscal Deficit
Encourage private
sector to help
infrastructure
development, among
other through PPP
scheme
% Total Spending
250
200
12
11.0
9.8
9.7
150
8.3
10
9.0
8.8
100
50
0
8
91.3
84
114.2
2009
2010
2011
Infrastructure Spending (LHS)
145.5
2012
155.9
206.6
2013
2014
% Total Spending (RHS)
New Airports - 15
Airport Infrastructure
Development
Airplanes - 20
28
2014 Budget
Items
A. State revenue and grants
I. Domestic revenue
1.Tax revenue
2.Non tax revenue
II. Grants
B. State expenditure
133.91
16.10% 1,633.10
131.28
16.20% 1,216.40
97.78
74.50%
1,280.40
102.93
12.40% 1,246.10
100.17
12.40%
906.6
72.88
72.80%
385.4
30.98
3.70%
386.9
31.10
3.80%
309.9
24.91
80.10%
1.4
0.11
0.00%
2.3
0.18
0.00%
2.2
0.18
95.80%
113.56
75.30%
1,842.50 148.11
18.70% 1,412.70
1,249.90
100.47
12.10% 1,280.40
102.93
12.70%
930
74.76
72.60%
1. Personnel
2. Goods & Services and
Capital*
3. Interest payments
263
21.14
2.50%
258.8
20.80
2.60%
203.4
16.35
78.70%
399.8
32.14
3.90%
356
28.62
3.60%
184.5
14.83
51.83%
121.3
9.75
1.20%
135.5
10.89
1.30%
113.3
9.11
83.60%
333.7
26.82
3.20%
403
32.40
4.00%
354.6
28.5
88.00%
5. Grants
3.5
0.28
0.00%
2.9
0.23
0.00%
0.3
0.02
10.90%
6. Social expenditure
91.8
7.38
0.90%
96.7
7.77
0.90%
71.7
5.76
74.20%
7. Other expenditure
36.9
2.97
0.40%
27.9
2.24
0.30%
2.3
0.18
8.40%
592.6
47.64
5.70%
596.5
47.95
5.90%
482.7
38.8
80.90%
-54.10
-4.35
-0.50%
-106.00
-8.52
-1.10%
-80.80
-6.5
76.20%
-175.40
-14.10
-1.70%
-241.50
-19.41
-2.40%
-194.10
-15.6
80.40%
175.4
14.10
1.70%
241.5
19.41
2.40%
250.1
20.1
103.60%
I. Domestic financing
196.3
15.78
1.90%
254.9
20.49
2.50%
275.8
22.17
108.20%
-20.9
-1.68
-0.20%
-13.4
-1.08
-0.10%
-25.7
-2.07
191.30%
4. Subsidies
Primary balance
(1)
Overall balance (A - B)
Financing
Budget Assumptions
2014
2014
Revised
Budget
2015
Budget
2015
Revised
Budget
Growth (%)
6.0
5.5
5.8
5.8
Inflation (%)
5.5
5.3
4.4
5.0
10,500
11,600
11,900
12,200
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.2
105.0
105.0
105.0
70.0
0.870
0.818
0.900
0.849
Macroeconomic
Assumptions
Economic growth
Lower global growth outlook leads to slower domestic growth,
mainly due to exports and capital flows
Impact of governments effort in easing Current Account
pressure and maintaining stability
Exchange rate and interest rate revised according to the global and
domestic financial market
Liquidity tightening and tapering policy in US
Capital outflow from EM to US economy
Competition and liquidity tightening resulted in the hike in
interest rates, even within domestic Indonesian economy
Oil and gas lifting revised down due to technical issues and
production delays in Cepu and other new oil blocks
1.240
1.224
1.248
1.177
29
2015
Description
Budget
% to
GDP
Revised
Budget
% to
GDP
A. Total Revenue
1,793,588.9
16.1
1,761,642.8
15.1
B. Total Expenditure
Interest Payment
2,039,483.6
151,968.3
18.3
1.4
1,984,149.7
155,730.9
17.0
1.3
C. Primary Balance
D. Deficit
E. Financing
I. Non Debt
II. Debt
1. Government Securities (Net)
2. Loan (Net)
i. Foreign Loan (Net)
Disbursement
- Program Loan
- Project Loan
On Lending
Foreign Loan Principal Payment
ii. Domestic Loan (Net)
Disbursement
Domestic Loan Principal Payment
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y)
Growth (%)
Inflation (%) y-o-y
3-month-SPN (%)
IDR/USD (average)
(93,926.4)
(0.8)
(66,776.0)
(0.6)
(245,894.7)
(2.2)
(222,506.9)
(1.9)
245,894.7
(8,961.2)
2.2
(0.1)
222,506.9
(56,874.0)
1.9
(0.5)
254,855.9
277,049.8
(22,193.9)
(23,815.1)
47,037.1
7,140.0
39,897.1
(4,319.4)
(66,532.8)
1,621.2
2.3
2.5
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
0.1
0.4
(0.0)
(0.6)
0.0
279,380.9
297,698.4
(18,317.5)
(20,008.1)
48,647.0
7,500.0
41,147.0
(4,471.9)
(64,183.2)
1,690.6
2.4
2.5
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
0.1
0.4
(0.0)
(0.5)
0.0
2,000.0
(378.8)
11,146,943.0
5.8
4.4
6.0
11,900
0.0
(0.0)
2,000.0
(309.4)
11,700,808.0
5.7
5.0
6.2
12,500
0.0
(0.0)
2015 is higher
adverse situations.
Non-Auction:
retail bonds: ORI + Sukuk Retail.
International Bonds:
Issuance of International Bonds as
complement to avoid crowding
out in domestic market and
provide benchmark for corporate
issuance, consist of USD, YEN or
EURO global bonds
FR 69 5 Y
FR 70 10 Y
FR 71 15 Y
FR 68 20 Y
31
In billion IDR
Debt Financing
Cash Debt
Govt Securities (net)
Govt Securities (gross)
Redemption
Buyback
Program Loan
Non-Cash Debt
Project Loan
External Loan
Domestic Loan
Repayment
Realization ao
Budget
Revised 2014
Dec 2014 *)
253,724
250,607
281,883
282,745
264,984
264,978
428,135
428,129
(161,800)
(161,800)
(1,351)
(1,351)
16,900
17,767
(28,159)
(32,138)
36,246
29,135
33,823
28,628
2,423
507
(64,405)
(61,273)
Percentage
Realization
98.8%
100.3%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
105.1%
114.1%
80.4%
84.6%
20.9%
95.1%
32
33
[In Percentage]
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Global
Financial
Crisis
5Y
10Y
15Y
20Y
Eurozone
sovereign debt
crisis
Jan'15
Oct'14
Jul'14
Apr'14
Jan'14
Oct'13
Jul'13
Apr'13
Jan'13
Oct'12
Jul'12
Apr'12
Jan'12
Oct'11
Jul'11
Apr'11
Jan'11
Oct'10
Jul'10
Apr'10
Jan'10
Oct'09
Jul'09
Apr'09
Jan'09
Oct'08
Jul'08
Apr'08
277,049,800
153,612,324
3,000,000
430,662,124
Realization
% Realization to
Budget 2015
84,862,000
6,875,000
91,737,000
82,672,000
Domestic GDS
-Coupon GDS
-Conventional T-Bills
-Private Placement
-Retail Bonds
International Bonds
-USD GMTN
-Euro GMTN
32,300,000
21,300,000
8,000,000
3,000,000
50,372,000
50,372,000
-
-Samurai Bonds
9,065,000
9,065,000
9,065,000
-
30.63%
4.48%
0.00%
21.30%
250
Loan
200
Government Securities
150
118.39
100
130.97
140.75
136.27
155.23
160.08
104.20
70.51
82.34
85.26
82.78
68.59
63.09
62.02
62.25
66.69
65.02
68.65
68.51
63.76
58.28
54.18
53.94
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jan 30,
2015
76.64
71.29
68.91
2003
50
[in percentage]
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Loan
47%
49%
47%
43%
42%
45%
38%
37%
37%
31%
30%
26%
25%
Government Securities
53%
51%
53%
57%
58%
55%
62%
63%
63%
69%
70%
74%
75%
36
2041-2060
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2033
Loan
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Gov't Securities
2034
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Foreign
Foreign
44.1%
Domestic
2041-2060
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
55.9%
Domestik
37
100%
30.53%
30.80%
32.98%
32.54%
38.13%
40.25%
46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42%
80%
30.53% 30.80%
43%
45.00%
43%
40.25%
39.41% 38.13%
36.33%36.81%37.30% 37.80%
35.66%
35.72%
34.59%
33.64%
32.98% 32.54%
25.00%
60%
35.59%
32.58%
30.49%
33.76%
30.83%
29.81%
25%
28% 32% 38% 34% 33% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 34% 34%
40% 21%
5.00%
33.88%
36.63%
36.53%
33.70%
31.04%
29.95%
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
31-Dec-14
30-Jan-15
Foreign Holders
Domestic Non-Banks
20%
18%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 June 14 July 14 Aug 14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
Domestic Banks
>10
Source:
Ministry of Finance
17%
>5-10
>2-5
>1-2
0-1
Dec-12
Dec-13
Mar-14
IDR 757,231
IDR 908,078
IDR 975,977
IDR 1,030,301
IDR 1,089,951
IDR 1,104,898
IDR 1,099,257
IDR 1,125,557
IDR 24,083
IDR 22,820
IDR 1,263
IDR 34,050
IDR 34,050
IDR -
IDR 40,300
IDR 40,300
IDR -
IDR 42,600
IDR 42,600
IDR -
IDR 36,100
IDR 36,100
IDR -
IDR 40,100
IDR 40,100
IDR -
IDR 39,950
IDR 39,950
IDR -
IDR 41,950
IDR 41,950
IDR -
IDR 733,148
IDR 610,393
IDR 122,755
IDR 874,028
IDR 751,273
IDR 122,755
IDR 935,677
IDR 812,922
IDR 122,755
IDR 987,701
IDR 864,946
IDR 122,755
IDR 1,053,851
IDR 931,096
IDR 122,755
IDR 1,064,798
IDR 942,044
IDR 122,755
IDR 1,059,307
IDR 945,964
IDR 113,344
IDR 1,083,607
IDR 970,264
IDR 113,344
IDR 240,144
IDR 234,870
IDR 233,505
IDR 232,033
IDR 230,600
IDR 230,162
IDR 229,054
IDR 227,942
3. SPNNT
4 Retail Saving Bonds
5 Total GDS (1+2+3+4)
5. Total Government International Bonds *)
Jun-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
IDR -
IDR -
IDR -
IDR -
IDR -
IDR -
IDR -
IDR 2,391
IDR 2,391
IDR 2,391
IDR 2,391
IDR 2,391
IDR 997,376
IDR 1,142,948
IDR 1,209,483
IDR 1,264,725
IDR 1,322,942
IDR 1,337,451
IDR 1,330,702
IDR 1,355,890
USD 22,950
USD 27,140
USD 30,190
USD 29,190
USD 29,190
USD 29,190
USD 29,190
USD 33,190
155,000
155,000
155,000
155,000
155,000
1,000
155,000
1,000
155,000
1,000
155,000
1,000
IDR 1,219,302
IDR 1,473,757
IDR 1,553,769
IDR 1,632,413
IDR 1,712,219
IDR 1,722,464
IDR 1,725,118
IDR 1,805,804
IDR 63,035
IDR 87,174
IDR 96,764
IDR 101,329
IDR 109,444
IDR 111,509
IDR 110,704
IDR 118,894
IDR 62,840
IDR 78,541
IDR 92,409
IDR 95,894
IDR 99,504
IDR 99,969
IDR 99,969
IDR 108,034
IDR 195
IDR 8,633
IDR 4,355
IDR 5,435
IDR 9,940
IDR 11,540
IDR 10,735
IDR 10,860
IDR 35,783
IDR 31,533
IDR 35,533
IDR 35,533
IDR 35,197
IDR 33,197
IDR 33,197
IDR 33,197
b. Zero Coupon
b. Domestic Non Tradable GIDS
USD 2,650
USD 4,150
USD 4,150
USD 3,500
USD 5,000
USD 5,000
USD 5,000
USD 5,000
IDR 88,660
IDR 137,758
IDR 144,090
IDR 143,220
IDR 170,504
IDR 171,919
IDR 172,904
IDR 182,019
IDR 1,343,746
IDR 1,643,048
IDR 1,733,393
IDR 1,811,166
IDR 1,917,920
IDR 1,927,579
IDR 1,931,218
IDR 2,021,020
Notes:
- Nominal in billion rupiah (domestic bonds), million USD & million JPY (international bonds)
- *) Tradable
- **) Non-Tradable
- +) Including ORI (IDR Billion))
IDR 34,153
IDR 43,882
IDR 43,882
IDR 43,882
IDR 43,882
IDR 54,098
IDR 54,098
- ++) Including Sukuk Ritel/SR (IDR Billion)
IDR 28,989
IDR 35,924
IDR 47,906
IDR 47,906
IDR 47,906
IDR 47,906
IDR 47,906
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1)
IDR 9,670
IDR 12,189
IDR 11,404
IDR 11,969
IDR 12,212
IDR 12,082
IDR 12,440
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/JPY1)
IDR 111.97
IDR 116.17
IDR 111.65
IDR 118.15
IDR 111.70
IDR 110.43
IDR 104.25
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/EUR1)
IDR 15,495
IDR 15,222
IDR 15,133
- Since October 2006, government and the Central Bank committed to replace interest payment of Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia (SU-002 & SU-004) with new bond (SU-007) and omitted
indexation of SU-002 & SU-004
IDR
IDR
IDR
IDR
IDR
54,098
47,906
12,625
106.99
14,307
39
Auction
Frequency
Offer Received
Offer Aw arded
2005
9 series
7,721
5,673
2006
12
7 up to 21 series
54,177
31,179
2007
12 up to 21 series
30,681
15,782
2008
21 up to 31 series
7,490
4,571
2009
24 up to 28 series
8,663
2,938
2010
11 up to 28 series
8,349
3,920
2011
22 up to 27 series
3,080
664
2012
10 up to 20 series
23,126
11,859
2013
7 up to 13 series
7,222
1,976
2014
9 up to 12 series
10,591
5,944
2015
Total
161,100
84,506
Buyback Program
Freque ncie s
Ye a r
Volume
(IDR billion)
Auctions
Dire ct
Transa ctions
2003
8,127
2004
1,962
2005
5,158
2007
2,859
2008
2,375
2009
8,528
2010
10
3,201
2011
3,500
2012
1,138
2013
1,551
2014
1,351
2015
GRAND TOTAL
39,750
40
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
TOTAL
SUKUK USD
SUKUK IDR
SUN JPY
SUN EUR
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044
122. 95.3 97.8 90.6 129. 78.8 82.7 102. 86.1 162. 52.8 19.6 45.1 50.2 67.4 25.6 27.1 42.8 47.8 76.5 20.2 4.11 35.4 40.9
-
12.6 18.9
12.6
18.9
3.97
1.22
1.55
3.79
2.18
3.74 6.42
6.42
14.3
20.2
18.9 25.2
6.40 15.6
SUN USD
12.6 11.3 19.4 23.9 25.2 25.2 31.5 25.2 31.5 25.2 25.2
SUN IDR
81.5 69.0 57.9 45.3 81.1 43.2 36.8 56.6 54.5 117. 26.0 19.6 41.4 50.2 67.4 23.5 27.1 42.8 47.8 76.5
4.11 10.1
2.75
9.93
13.5 12.0
11.2
41
Source: Ministry of Finance
Capital Inflows
25.00
50.00
0.10
39.48
40.00
20.00
0.05
30.00
7.90
15.00
11.49
Triliun
9.93
6.19 8.59 10.76
8.69
9.39
10.00
6.30
0.38 0.41
0.91
1.18 0.35
0.96
10.31
7.83
1.04
0.00
(4.99)
(10.00)
10.91
(20.00)
(30.00)
(2.27)
(0.08) (1.41)
(4.37)
17.97
8.44
4.22 2.81
2.68
0.68
(0.88)
20.15
21.34
15.77
15.95
16.10
16.49
14.67 13.17
12.49
10.13
6.43
6.08 4.82
(1.76)
(0.05)
(0.37)
(19.98)
(19.84)
(0.15)
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
OUTRIGHT
BANKS REPO
(0.10)
(29.29)
(40.00)
0.00
(8.99)
0.79
7.839.35
4.15
1.69
(1.49)
10.13
8.06
10.00
1.14
0.36
19.52
20.00
13.11
3.07
5.00
7.45
23.98
BI REPO
42
`
Banks
Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia*)
Non-Banks
Mutual Funds
Insurance Company
Foreign Holders
Dec-13
0.37%
33.70%
Mar-14
359.99
Jun-14
33.56%
355.58
Sep-14
31.42%
420.50
Nov-14
35.06%
407.58
Dec-14
33.38%
375.55
Jan-15
31.04%
372.66
29.95%
44.44
4.47%
30.44
2.84%
51.19
4.52%
0.00
0.00%
0.38
0.03%
41.63
3.44%
38.37
3.08%
61.83%
4.27%
682.31
44.15
63.60%
4.12%
724.86
45.80
64.05%
4.05%
778.90
46.11
64.94%
3.84%
812.93
45.46
66.58%
3.72%
792.78
45.79
65.52%
3.78%
833.42
47.16
66.97%
3.79%
13.02%
141.28
13.17%
151.36
13.38%
154.09
12.85%
150.78
12.35%
150.60
12.45%
149.95
12.05%
32.54%
360.91
33.64%
403.59
35.66%
447.37
37.30%
481.20
39.41%
461.35
38.13%
500.83
40.25%
50.06
6.10%
78.39
7.88%
86.09
8.03%
93.59
8.27%
100.57
8.38%
102.61
8.40%
103.42
8.55%
104.66
8.41%
Pension Fund
56.46
6.88%
39.47
3.97%
39.66
3.70%
38.95
3.44%
42.63
3.55%
42.48
3.48%
43.30
3.58%
43.00
3.46%
0.30
0.04%
0.88
0.09%
0.83
0.08%
0.96
0.08%
0.99
0.08%
0.89
0.07%
0.81
0.07%
0.65
0.05%
32.48
3.26%
45.75
4.27%
31.42
2.78%
28.88
2.41%
31.91
2.61%
30.41
2.51%
28.35
2.28%
63.64
7.76%
46.68
4.69%
49.72
4.64%
52.78
4.66%
58.83
4.90%
60.21
4.93%
60.51
5.00%
63.49
5.10%
100% 1,244.45
100%
Securities Company
Individual
Others
Total
820.27
100% 995.25
100% 1,072.74
100% 1,131.63
1) Including ownership of SBSN (government sukuk).
2) Foreign are consisted of Private Banking, Fund/Asset Management, Securities, Insurance, Pension Fund.
3) Others are consisted of Corporation, Individual, Foundation.
*) Since February 8th, 2008, repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank Indonesia was included.
**) Since November 21, 2014, foreign government(s) was included to the same category as foreign central bank(s).
100% 1,199.39
100% 1,220.90
100% 1,209.96
In the end of January 2015, foreign investor ownership record the highest percentage, showing their increasing appetite on the
Indonesias government securities.
43