theeffect

Highlighting research and communication at the Tyndall Centre

Cities

Water

Ships

Coasts

China

theeffect

OUR DIRECTORS

Professor Corinne Le Qur


Director and Professor of Climate Change
Science and Policy, UEA

Professor Robert Watson


Director of Strategy and Professor of
Environmental Sciences, UEA

Professor Kevin Anderson


Deputy Director and Professor of Energy and
Climate Change, University of Manchester

Professor Trevor Davies


Deputy Director of International Activities and
Pro-Vice Chancellor, UEA

OUR NEW PROFESSORS


Alice Bows-Larkin, Professor of Climate Science and
Energy Policy, University of Manchester

Patricia Thornley, Professor of Sustainable Energy

Systems, University of Manchester


Lorraine Whitmarsh, Professor of Environmental
Psychology, Cardiff University

Front cover: Javier Delgado Esteban/Tyndall Centre

Directors welcome
I am proud to be the Director of
such a vibrant institute with so many
researchers dedicating their time
and energy to advancing informed
decision-making on climate change.
We have worked hard to provide
evidence in support of an international
agreement at the climate change summit
in Paris and for other activities around
the world, some of which we highlight in
this edition.
In the scientific literature we have
underlined the impacts of climate
change for food production, coastal
and delta flooding, urban living and air
pollution, and how to manage them.
Weve also detailed the drivers of
changes in carbon emissions with annual
carbon budgets, looked at consumption
patterns, provided prospects for
emissions reductions from aviation and
shipping and prospects for the use
of biofuels, and queried what people
actually think about climate change
which overwhelmingly is to move away
from fossil fuels. Weve also lots of new
research starting-up or in progress.
Our researchers have also put
extraordinary efforts to write, review,
and communicate the latest scientific
assessment of climate change by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Im pleased also to
see that the research methods weve

developed have been useful for policy

and game changing for international
research. Tyndall did interdisciplinarity,
stakeholder engagement and codesign from its outset in 2000, and
these approaches are now being
promoted by the new Future Earth
international research platform for global
sustainability. Tyndall UEA now hosts
the Future Earth European Secretariat,
creating tremendous opportunities for
international synergies in environmental
research, by bridging issues of climate
change into the bigger context of global
sustainability.
As the world moves towards acting
on climate change, so must we in
the research community. Among
other efforts we continue to seek a
cultural change for the global research
community by encouraging climate
friendly climate research with our Tyndall
Travel Tracker and carbon friendly
climate conferences.
These are exciting years at the Tyndall
Centre for my colleagues and I, as much
is happening to begin to tackle climate
change. Thank you for reading the effect.

Professor
Corinne Le Qur
Director

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theeffect

News in brief
Intergovernmental
Inputs
The fifth assessment of the
Intergovernmental Climate Change
(IPCC) has Lead Authors, Contributors
and Reviewers from the Tyndall Centre
across all three of its Working Group
reports released in 2013 and 2014. We
also reviewed the contents of the IPCC
Chapters for the European Commission.
http://ipcc.ch

Resilient
Infrastructure
The impacts of climate change on the
UKs road, rail, ports, energy and other
infrastructure have been published as
a Report Card by the UK Research
Councils Living With Environmental
Change initiative (LWEC), written by
Prof. Richard Dawson at Tyndall Centre
Newcastle.
www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards

Renewables
Revolution
Carbon-intensive, coal-dependent
South Africa has become one of the
world- leading destinations for renewable
energy investment, rising to $5.7 billion
in 2012, with renewables set to achieve

around 20% of generation capacity

by 2030. Lucy Baker of Tyndall Centre
Sussex has published a Tyndall Working
Paper assessing South Africas political
economy of energy.
www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/
twp159_0.pdf

Risk Assessors
The UK Government carries out a risk
assessment every five years to current
and future climate. Rachel Warren
of Tyndall Centre UEA is leading the
Chapter on Climate Science and Risk.
Prof. Richard Dawson of Tyndall Centre
Newcastle is leading the Chapter on
Infrastructure. Prof. Jim Hall of Tyndall
Centre Oxford is a member of the UK
Sub-Committee on Climate Change
Adaptation. www.theccc.org.uk

Future Earth
Europe
Tyndall Centre UEA is the European Hub
of Future Earth, a new global initiative
to coordinate and support research
on global environmental change and
sustainability. The Hub will support the
co-design of research with funders
and users and widen stakeholder
engagement and communication.
www.futureearth.org

Carbon China
Lessons from the UK carbon budget
have been applied to Jiangsu Province
in China to see if a similar system can
be adapted for China. With workshops
and training sessions in Jiangsu, the
work was funded by the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office, and led by Annela
Anger-Kraavi of UEA with Libo Wu and
Trevor Davies of Tyndall Centre Fudan
in Shanghai.
http://tyndallcentre.fudan.edu.cn

Buckshot Not
Silver Bullets
Successful innovation requires diverse
portfolios of options (buckshot) rather
than one-shot large-scale panaceas
(silver bullets). Edited by Charlie Wilson
of Tyndall Centre UEA and Arnulf Grubler
of the International Institute of Applied
Systems Analysis in Austria, the new
book, Energy innovation historical
success and failures is published by
Cambridge University Press.

Research
Strategy
Review
Our mid-term review of strategy
shows that we published 190 peerreviewed papers 2012-2014, 14
reports and 4 books. We responded
to seven government inquiries,
participated in UN climate meetings
and other briefings, and secured 71
new research projects to a total value
of 13.3 million. http://goo.gl/f1QI2y

HRH
Prince of Wales
The Prince of Wales in his opening
address to the Earth System Governance
conference 2014 at UEA encouraged
leading figures in science to work toward
a more sustainable and equitable future
for all. The Prince is Patron to UEAs
School of Environmental Sciences.
ESG2014 was led by Heike Schroeder of
Tyndall Centre UEA. http://goo.gl/4pdcAi

Tyndall Centre researchers past and present

contributed more authors to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change than any other University
organisation in the world.

theeffect CARDIFF

theeffect

74% of public
want climate
agreement

In December 2013 and January 2014,

an exceptional run of winter storms hit
the UK, leading to widespread flooding.
Many people saw climate change as
contributing at least in part to the winter
flooding events.
The researchers surveyed a nationally
representative sample of 1,002
respondents from across Britain, together
with a further group of 995 people drawn
from five areas of England and Wales that
had been affected by the flooding.

The British public

have indicated
strong support for
action on climate
change,shows
opinion polling by
researchers at the
STUART CAPSTICK
Understanding
Risk Group at Cardiff University and the
Tyndall Centre. 74% of people surveyed
supported the UK signing up to
international agreements to limit carbon
emissions, with only 7% opposing.

Stuart Capstick of Tyndall Centre Cardiff

said our results point to the importance of
flooding and other extreme weather events
in shaping climate change perceptions.
Of those who reported that their level
of concern about climate change had
increased over the past year, 26% referred
to flooding or heavy rainfall as a reason
for this. By contrast, only 1 in 20 people
referred to rising temperatures or hot or
dry weather as a reason for increasing
concern, while 13% referred to media
reports, and less than 1% referred to
scientific evidence or reports.
88% agreed that the worlds climate is
changing, a figure that is up on polling in
previous years and close to the highest
figure of 91% last found in 2005. 6% did
not agree that the climate is changing.

Ashley Cooper/Robert Harding

76% of respondents stated that they had

personally noticed signs of climate change
during their lifetime, with 39% mentioning
changing weather patterns or extreme
weather; 27% mentioning heavy rainfall,
floods, or rising river levels; and 20%
changes to the seasons.

77% thought that the causes of the floods

were connected to insufficient investment
in flood defences, 75% poor management
of rivers and coasts, 73% building in floodprone areas; and 61% climate change.
72% agreed with the statement The
floods showed us what we can expect
in the future from climate change. 10%
disagreed with this statement. People
who had been flooded were more likely to
spontaneously mention climate change,
unprompted, as one of the top three
national priorities for the UK over the
coming 20 years.
Professor Nick Pidgeon from Tyndall
Centre Cardiff at the Universitys School
of Psychology said This finding above all
sends a clear signal to the UK government
as for the pivotal international climate talks
to be held in Paris later this year.

i Further information
Stuart Capstick is Research Fellow in
the School of Psychology at Cardiff
University. Nick Pidgeon is Professor
of Environmental Psychology at Cardiff
University. http://understanding-risk.org/
reports
This research was funded by the UK
Economic and Social Research Council,
the Climate Change Consortium of Wales
(C3W) and the Cardiff Sustainable Places
Research Institute.

theeffect

theeffect

MANCHESTER

Radical emission
reduction
KEVIN ANDERSON

Early research for

a rapid reduction
in developed-world
energy consumption is
published in a Special
Issue of the journal
Carbon Management.

There is little to no research on delivering

deep and rapid cuts in carbon emissions.
By contrast, there is a wealth of research
on delivering incremental reductions in
energy demand, but this all falls far short
of what is necessary to deliver on 2C
carbon budgets says Prof. Kevin Anderson,
Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre, based
at the University of Manchester.

The issue explores how a 60% or more

cut in carbon dioxide emissions could
be achieved within a decade; reductions
broadly in line with what industrialised
nations would need to deliver if they are to
make their fair contribution to the 2C target
for climate change.

Reducing carbon emissions in line with the

2C target cannot be achieved through
new low-carbon technologies alone. Even
with a rapid up-scaling of new construction,
the time taken to design and build energy
supply technologies and infrastructures
means they cannot penetrate the market at
the rate required for even a low likelihood of
staying below the 2C threshold.
There is little cogent analysis of reductions
for demand in energy that can be
considered non-marginal, step-change and
systemic says Prof. Anderson.
Some of the technologies typically included
in carbon-reducing scenarios are not even
in an early stage of design, notably power
stations that burn biomass instead of fossil
fuels and then capture and store their
carbon emissions.

There is little to no research on delivering

deep and rapid cuts in carbon emissions,
conventional research on incremental
reductions falls far short of the 2C target

The Special Issue contains 10 of the 70

papers that were presented at the Radical
Emission Reduction Conference, hosted
by the Tyndall Centre at the Royal Society
of London in December 2013. Three key
messages became clear.
Hermann Erber/Robert Harding

First, with few exceptions, decarbonisation

efforts through politics, businesses, NGOs
and voluntary groups have fallen far short
of demonstrating the absolute rates of

mitigation that would be necessary to avoid

2C of dangerous climate change.
Second, technology, policy or changed
behaviour, in isolation, will not reduce
emissions at the rates needed. Delivering
radical reductions in emissions requires
a concerted and explicit synthesis of
technical, political and social responses.
This in turn requires funders and
researchers that are fit-for-purpose, often
operating outside of the traditional silos of
disciplinary expertise.
Third, there is a huge gap in the academic
literature on how to deliver non-marginal
step-changes in emissions, and the
implications of such changes for the
structure of society and the development
of technologies.
Responding to climate change whether
mitigation or adaptation demands a
paradigm shift. The future will be radically
different from the present. Either we develop
a timely and organised response to the
challenges posed by radical mitigation, or
we face the systemic and unprecedented
repercussions of a rapidly changing climate.
The choice is ours.

i Further information
The Radical Emission Reduction
Conference was 10-11 December 2013
at the Royal Society. The presentations
can be seen here http://goo.gl/luObdy
The Special Issue of Carbon Management
is at http://goo.gl/z4iSjn
Kevin Anderson is Professor of Energy
and Climate Change and Deputy Director
of the Tyndall Centre.

theeffect UEA and MANCHESTER

theeffect

Action plan for

Climate Summit
A real-world
near-term action
plancommissioned by
the Republic of Nauru,
Chair of the Alliance
of Small Island States
(AOSIS) was written
BOB WATSON
by 30 leading climate
and energy experts from around the world
including the Tyndall Centres Director of
Strategy Prof. Sir Robert Watson FRS of
UEA and Tyndall Deputy Director Prof.
Kevin Anderson of the University
of Manchester.
The report Tackling the challenge of climate
change: A near-term actionable agenda
was launched at the United Nations
Climate Summit in September 2014 in
response to UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moons request for world leaders to
attend the Climate Summit with bold
initiatives to lower greenhouse gas
emissions. The AOSIS paper defines a
suite of existing policies and technologies
that the international community can
use to immediately speed and scale
the transformation to a low-carbon
economy and avert the worst impacts
of climate change.
We have the technology and know-how
to solve this climate crisis and save people
and families from the most threatened

environmental costs of emissions for

current and future generations would send
the right price signal to drive investment
in clean technology. The least efficient
coal plants should be retired and no new
coal plants without Carbon Capture and
Storage technology should be built. A
systems-wide transformation towards a
low-carbon economy requires policies
to catalyse institutional reform and
behavioural change as a complement to
low carbon technologies.

communities across our planet. What

is missing is the courage to make the
change and that has to come from
world leaders, said Naurus Ambassador,
Marlene Moses, Chair of AOSIS.

Tackling the challenge of climate change:

A near-term actionable agenda
http://goo.gl/N68Y58

We want to make it clear that the

international community can answer
Secretary General Ban Ki-moons challenge
and act boldly now to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, said Prof. Watson, who
served as chair of the report. Success
is essentialOur current pathway will
not achieve the deep emissions cuts we
need, but is more closely aligned with
temperature increases closer to 3C or
much greater. Time is running out.
The reports main findings include: There
is major cost-effective potential. For
example, energy efficiency building retrofits
can typically achieve 70-90% reduction
in energy consumption for heating and
cooling. Wind and solar PV will result in
about 1.4 billion tonnes of avoided CO2
emissions per year by 2020, but with
great policy support could cut another
billion tonnes of emissions globally.
Where governments have made climate a
priority, smart policies have facilitated the
transformative scaling up of renewable
energy and end-use efficiency.
The AOSIS report states that an effective
price on carbon to reflect the health and

This report makes it clear to global

leaders that further delay in tackling
the biggest crisis of our generation is
unacceptable. We are morally responsible
for the predictable outcomes of our
decisions. Failing to act on climate
change would lead to more needless
suffering, more deaths and potentially
the loss of entire nations like ours, said
Ambassador Moses.

i Further information

Tyndall Centre Director of Strategy Prof.

Sir Robert Watson was Chair of the
Alliance of Small Island States report.

Blake Kent/Robert Harding

10

11

theeffect UEA

theeffect

Water wars
a fallacy
Its not every day you
find an issue where
effective diplomacy
and development
will allow you to save
millions of lives and
advance our national
MARISA GOULDEN
security interests.
Water is that issue said US Secretary of
State Hilary Clinton at World Water Day
in 2012.
Despite the rhetoric, conflict over water is
rare and cooperation is more usual, shows
a research team including Marisa Goulden
at Tyndall UEA with colleagues working
across the Mediterranean, Middle East and
North Africa (MENA Region). Conversely,
adaptation in response to pressures on
water from climate change are more
likely to cause conflict and tensions. To
prevent this, the decision-making around
water adaptation needs to be improved
and inclusive.
The intention of many water adaptation
measures is to improve water security but
instead they can end up undermining the
human security of the most vulnerable
parts of the population says Marisa.
Their project, called CLICO, sought to
discover whether the effects of climate
change and variability in terms of water
scarcity, droughts and floods in the region
present a threat to human security. It is

Increasing
demand due
to economic
growth drives
water conflict
more than
climate stress

a major study across the MENA Region

involving 11 case studies, 13 research
partners, and a statistical analysis of
10,000 in-country cases.
The researchers showed that climate stress
is not significant in increasing tensions over
water, rather it is economic growth driving
demand that appears to play a greater role
in water conflicts. They found that there
is more water conflict within countries
than between countries, with democratic
countries reporting more expressions of
tension or conflict than non-democratic.

i Further information
Dr Marisa Goulden is Tyndall Lecturer
in Climate Change and International
Development at UEA.
Climate change, hydro-conflicts and
human security was funded by the
European Commission www.clico.org

The US Study on the Syrian Drought

www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241

Groups of nations that have good

cooperative institutions have less to fear
from water insecurity says Marisa. Taken
together, the conditions of social exclusion
and inequality, poverty, weak government
institutions, inadequate infrastructure and
lack of information increase risks of water
insecurity through climate vulnerability.
A recent paper by US researchers has
attributed the fertile crescent drought
2006 to 2010 as a contributing factor to
starting the current Syrian conflict.
Understanding climate change and
variability through modelling and
observations gives us valuable knowledge,
but interdisciplinary learning from the
CLICO project suggests that researchers
need to look to a host of other political,
economic and social grievances to really
understand what took place in Syria

says Marisa. While water wars because of

climate change cannot be ruled out in the
future, the evidence we have suggests that
conflicts are much more complex in their
causes and effects than purely a scramble
over diminishing water resources.

The transcript of Hillary Clintons World

Water Day speech 2012 is here
http://goo.gl/w0fdLv

Tim Graham/Robert Harding

12

13

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MANCHESTER

Bioenergy can
meet half of the
UKs needs

indigenous biomass against renewable

energy targets, and evaluate future
scenarios. The scenarios analysed if
economic growth was the prime policy
focus; if conservation of resources was the
focus; if the UK pushes towards achieving
the maximum practical levels of bioenergy;
and a food focus where the bioenergy
sector is analysed alongside an increase in
UK food security.
Through increasing the productivity of land
by better research and technology, the

We often hear that the barriers to biomass

are choices between growing food crops
and fuel crops or that biomass has to be
imported. Our study shows that these
perceptions are not correct.
PATRICIA THORNLEY

ANDREW WELFLE

The UK could generate 44% of its energy

needs by 2050 from biomass sources
including domestic waste, agricultural
residues and home-grown biofuels, shows
new research led by Prof. Patricia Thornley,
Director of the Supergen Bioenergy Hub
at the University of Manchester and the
Tyndall Centre.
The developing UK bioenergy industry
is heading towards being increasingly
reliant upon biomass resources imported
from abroad. This research shows the
abundance of underutilised and overlooked
biomass resources at home.
The UK could produce large amounts
of biomass energy without importing the
fuel stock or impacting the UKs ability to
feed itself said Andrew Welfle of Tyndall
Manchester.

The study shows that residue from

agriculture such as straw, slurry and animal
bedding, forestry thinnings, and industrial
wood waste could continuously contribute
up to 7% of primary energy demand by
2050. Household and food and plant waste
offer particular potential of up to 15% of
energy. Energy crops that are specifically
grown for biomass could provide up
to 22%.

Andrew Welfle comments: Biomass

is a wonderfully flexible energy option.
It produces heat, electricity and even
transport fuels. The best option for the UK
is for bio-refineries to produce high value
fuel stocks, with the remaining residues
used to generate heat.

Patricia Thornley is Professor in

Sustainable Energy Systems at the
School of Mechanical, Aerospace
and Civil Engineering at the University
of Manchester. Andrew Welfle is
Postgraduate of the Year 2014 at the
University of Manchester, he is now a
Research Associate at Tyndall Centre
Manchester.

Andrew and colleagues developed the

Biomass Resource Model to analyse
scenarios to the year 2050, compare

Household, food
and plant waste
offer the potential
of 15% primary
energy by 2050

food focus reveals an overall reduction in

the area required to deliver increased food
quantities that is then made available for
energy crops.

i Further information

Vstock/Robert Harding

14

The SUPERGEN Bioenergy Hub brings

together industry, academia and other
stakeholders to focus on the contribution
of UK bioenergy to meet strategic
environmental targets.
www.supergen-bioenergy.net/

15

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MANCHESTER

Ships navigating
change
ALICE BOWS-LARKIN

MICHAEL TRAUT

It is the first time the scale of the emission

challenge for shipping has been presented
directly to the International Maritime
Organisation (IMO) and the first analysis to
be based upon ship types instead of the
industry as a whole. Shipping emissions have
grown by 70% since 1990 and currently
create 2-3% of the worlds carbon emissions,
approximately the same as aviation.

International shipping needs to half its

emissions by 2050 to take a fair share of
avoiding 2C of climate change, concludes
a new report presented to a meeting of the
UNs International Maritime Organisation
by the Tyndall Centre at the University of
Manchester and University College London.

Avoiding 2C of warming with any

reasonable degree of probability is a huge
challenge for all fossil-fuel consuming
sectors, and shipping is no exception.
Similar to our previous aviation work,
our new research draws attention to the
conflict between global climate change
targets and the growth of international
shipping, said Prof. Alice Bows-Larkin
of the University of Manchester and the
Tyndall Centre.
The reports presentation coincided with
the submission by the Republic of Marshall
Islands calling for the IMO to agree an
ambitious reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions for international shipping. The
Marshall Islands is the third biggest register
of ships behind Panama and Liberia. It
is also 1200 coral islets at an average of
2m above sea-level. For this reason, the
Marshall Islands is considered a front-line
state that will be in need of evacuation in
the face of inundation from rising sea level.

Shipping emissions have grown by 70%

since 1990 and currently create 2-3% of
the worlds carbon emissions, about
the same as aviation

Carsten Leuzinger/Robert Harding

16

The IMO in 2011 adopted a regulation to

improve the efficiency of new ships, but
with expected growth in shipping, CO2
emissions in meeting demand for seatrade are anticipated to rise between 50%
and 250% by 2050. The regulation will
not be enough to make a proportionate
contribution to the 2C international target.
The Tyndall Centre and University College

London (UCL) report shows that the global

fleet will need to be at least twice as
efficient by 2030 compared with today.
Alastair Fischbacher, CEO of The Sustainable
Shipping Initiative commented; Drastically
reducing the industrys reliance on fossil fuels
and developing a more sustainable fuels
mix will be where the industry can make
some of the biggest impact. The challenges
associated with this are significant but we
believe they must be met.
Despite support from some member
states, The Marshall Islands proposal was
rejected by the IMO, leaving the topic of
emissions targets to be revisited at some
indefinite point in the future.
Reducing emissions in line with climate
change mitigation targets isnt easy. But
if we ignore the issue, it doesnt get any
easier while we lock ourselves into ever
higher levels of global warming, potentially
leading to the disappearance of entire
countries in the Pacific. It is good news
if more countries take this important
discussion to the IMO, said Michael Traut
of the Tyndall Centre at Manchester.

i Further information
Alice Bows-Larkin is Professor of Climate
Science and Energy Policy at the
Tyndall Centre based within the School
of Mechanical, Civil and Aerospace
Engineering, University of Manchester.
Michael Traut is a Research Associate at
Tyndall Centre Manchester.
The Sustainable Shipping Research
Consortium www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk
This research is funded by the UK Research
Councils (RCUK).

17

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NEWCASTLE

Cool Tube
for London

nothing else were to change. The riskbased analysis used the Urban Weather
Generator built by Newcastle and UEA.
Air conditioning has the potential to provide
tangible improvements in thermal comfort
but this measure alone would not be
sufficient to maintain thermal conditions at
even the present day state for many of the
tube lines, and other options would need
to be considered in parallel.

The number
of days when
passengers
travelling on
the London
Underground
could suffer
RICHARD DAWSON
from heat
discomfort under different scenarios
of climate change has been
calculated by the Tyndall Centres
ARCADIA project.

ARCADIA uses London as its case study

and was developed closely with key
stakeholders such as the Greater London
Authority, the Department for Communities
and Local Government, Transport for
London and Thames Water. It is the first
application of the work of the Tyndall Urban
Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF).
Alex Nickson, Climate Strategy Manager at
the Great London Authority wrote UIAF
has advanced our understanding of climate
change in London and, I believe, is a
genuine first in terms of interdisciplinary
climate change research.

Tube temperature and discomfort

is one component of the
ARCADIA project, a new system
of models for analysing urban
climate risks to cities of flood,
droughts and excessive heat.
The system was built by
Tyndall colleagues at Oxford,
Newcastle, Southampton
and Cambridge Universities,
working with University
College London.
The warmer lines of Bakerloo
and Central are, as expected,
the most severely affected.
All tube lines assessed would
experience complete or nearcomplete heat dissatisfaction
under a 2050 high scenario
of climate change, if

Prof. Richard Dawson from Newcastle

University and the Tyndall Centre said
ARCADIA builds on unanswered or more
in-depth questions from policymakers to
analyse and provide evidence for decisions
about climate risks to the city economy,
built environment, urban land-use and
infrastructure.

OST/Robert Harding

18

The percentage of Londoners at risk

from thermal discomfort at home also
increases under all future scenarios of
climate change. Discomfort is considered
to be indoor temperatures in excess of
28C. By the 2030s under a scenario of
high emission climate change, 59-76%

of residents living in flats and 24-29% of

residents in detached properties are at risk.
A 50% increase in urban man-made heat
emissions, for example through widespread
use of air conditioning units, would further
increase the risk of thermal discomfort,
affecting 78-87% and 47-49% of residents
in flats and detached houses.

Tube passengers
would experience
complete heat
dissatisfaction
under a high
scenario of
climate change
i Further information
Richard Dawson is Professor of Earth
System Engineering at the University
of Newcastle
A further project developed from the Tyndall
Urban Integrated Assessment Facility
(UIAF) methodology is the Infrastructure
Transitions Research Consortium led by
Professor Jim Hall at the University of
Oxford www.itrc.org.uk
UIAF report www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/
default/files/engineeringcities.pdf
ARCADIA was funded by the UKs
Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council

19

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theeffect

SOUTHAMPTON and NEWCASTLE

Third millennium
informs coastal
management now
ROBERT NICHOLLS

A new book from the

Tyndall Centre draws
together a decade of
its coastal research.
Motivated by a need
to understand the
complexity of long-

Trained on the North Norfolk coast in

Eastern England, the Coastal Simulator
is the worlds first attempt to produce a
fine-scaled analysis of the future for a
specific coastal region. The book also
draws on international experiences to
identify key principles that enable the
Coastal Simulator to be transferred to
any other vulnerable coast.
The Tyndall Coastal Simulator gives us
an important exemplar of the approaches
required to provide science-based
management of the worlds coasts in
the coming decades said Prof. Robert
Nicholls, University of Southampton and
the Tyndall Centre.

term coastal change, a multi-disciplinary

team of climate scientists, oceanographers,
engineers, ecologists, geomorphologists
and social scientists embarked in 2000
upon developing an integrated joined-up
approach to analysing coastal change,
called the Tyndall Coastal Simulator.

The future of coastal areas is contingent

upon multiple pressures such as erosion,
defence, land-use, and climate, which when
analysed independently of each other, tell
little about what to expect in the decades
ahead. Better understanding the interplay
and uncertainties between these and other
driving forces of coastal change tells us how
particular coasts may look in 25, 50 and
100 years from now.

Asher Minns/Tyndall Centre

20

The Coastal Simulator links global climate

changes to local wave processes, regional
climate scenarios and sea-level rise, all
in the context of existing coastal defence
works and coastal management plans.
It quantifies for the first time how coastal
erosion in one place and coastal flood risk
in another place are strongly interlinked.
It has important implications for shoreline
management planning both in the UK and
abroad, where piecemeal, uncoordinated
management is often counterproductive.

The new book is a step-by-step guide

through the technical process of integrated
assessment of coastal areas in a manner
suitable for strategic coastal management.
It describes the development and
application of a framework for coastal
modelling to simulate interacting processes
including storm surges, erosion, flooding,
and land-use change. It also explains the
visualisation techniques used and the
evolution of an exploratory user interface.
Coastal stakeholders were essential to
the evolution of the Coastal Simulator,
the techniques for effective knowledge
exchange are also described.
The Coastal Simulator can help coastal
practitioners reach appropriate decisions
and importantly will help explain the impacts
of coastal change to those affected. This
book will inspire new innovative approaches
to the challenges that we face said Rob
Young, Head of Economic & Community
Development, North Norfolk District Council.

i Further information
Broad scale coastal simulation: New
techniques to understand and manage
shorelines in the third millennium www.
springer.com/gb/book/9789400752573
Robert Nicholls is Professor of Coastal
Engineering at the University of
Southampton. The paper describing the
Tyndall Coastal Simulator won the Lloyds
Science of Risk Prize, written by Richard
Dawson of Newcastle University www.ncl.
ac.uk/ceg/research/publication/45060

21

theeffect

theeffect

CAMBRIDGE

Climate policies
do not equal
economic losses

The Cambridge Model, called E3MG,

adopts a framework that emphasises
observed economic behaviour and does
not assume full employment and optimal
use of resources in its scenarios. This
means that the economy within the model
is dynamic and will grow faster if there is
more consumer demand for low-carbon
energy, especially when there are under or
unemployed resources.
Faster technological change is induced
by persistent and increasing prices on
carbon emissions. It also differs from the
equilibrium model due to other important
assumptions about how real economies
work, tested against historical data. To
achieve climate stabilisation at 2C a
diverse mix of strong policies is necessary,
driven by an international agreement on

from historical records said Prof. Terry

Barker. Our approach is a better basis
for policy analyses.

TERRY BARKER

DOUG CRAWFORD-BROWN

A global low carbon future is economically

feasible if available technologies and
policies were extended across the world
economy, shows the analysis in a new
book edited by Profs Terry Barker and
Doug Crawford-Brown of Cambridge
University Centre for Climate Change
Mitigation (4CMR) and the Tyndall Centre.
Their analysis challenges the assumption
that there is a choice between greenhouse
gas mitigation and a strong global
economy, between mitigation and
development of poor countries, and
mitigation and energy security. Their book
is the most recent output of a decade of
advanced economic modelling at 4CMR,
written by current and previous members.
We consistently demonstrate that wellchosen evidence-based policies avoid
the either/or choices of neoclassical
economists by developing our results

Decarbonising the Worlds Economy

evaluates economic and energy policies
already available to governments, such as
a global carbon tax. By modelling portfolios
of actual policies including regulation into
the future to 2050, they give a perspective
different to the academic literature reviewed
in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Changes (IPCC) third report Mitigation of
Climate Change.
With a mix of actual policies, the modelled
scenario for global decarbonisation
shows slightly higher GDP, slightly higher
employment, and slightly lower inflation.
This higher growth, although hardly
noticeable, can be contrasted with the
trade-off between climate policy and
growth from most other modelling studies
of deep mitigation.
The research group at 4CMR is also one
of the few teams whose energy-economy
analyses are based on annual data. Most
other global climate-economic models
are based upon one year of data, making
the assumption that the economy is at a
general equilibrium.

climate change.
High carbon
prices and strong
regulations are
necessary to
promote the
needed low-carbon
investment.

i Further information
Professor Terry Barker is Founding Director
of 4CMR (Cambridge Centre for Climate
Change Mitigation) within the Department
of Land Economy at Cambridge University;
Founder and Chairman of Cambridge
Econometrics; and Founder and Trustee
of the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking
in Economics. Doug Crawford-Brown is
Director of 4CMR.
Decarbonising the Worlds Economy;
Assessing the Feasibility of Policies to
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions is
published by Imperial College Press.
http://goo.gl/GSYBaW

Tetra Images/Robert Harding

22

4CMR is one of the few teams in the world

whose analyses are based on annual data
instead of only one year

23

24

theeffect

theeffect

UEA

Geoengineering
not a quick fix
The deliberate, largescale intervention in
the Earths climate
system is not a quick
fix for global warming,
according to Tyndall
researchers at UEA
NAOMI VAUGHAN
and Cardiff University.
Geoengineering is a set of ideas to try and
tackle climate change by reflecting more
sunlight back to space, or by removing

more research and development before

they could possibly play a part in climate
change policy.

some of the greenhouse gas carbon

dioxide from the atmosphere.
The Tyndall Centre researchers worked on
the UKs first interdisciplinary study into the
controversial issue of geoengineering.The
results of the four-year project were
unveiled at the Royal Society, London.
Dr Naomi Vaughan, from the Tyndall Centre
at UEA said: Geoengineering ideas are
still in their infancy and need considerably

Led by the University of Leeds, the

Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering
Proposals (IAGP) project brought together
a range of expertise from the fields
of climate modelling, philosophy and
engineering.The work at Tyndall UEA and
Tyndall Cardiff focused on gauging the
perceptions of public, industry leaders,
policy-makers and environmental campaign
groups about geoengineering.

Geoengineering
is not an option
for near-term
climate policy
In the public discussion group, the idea
that geoengineering involves messing
with nature was a central theme. Of the
geoengineering proposals discussed,
carbon dioxide removal approaches
were favoured over solar geoengineering
approaches. Climate change mitigation
strategies were preferred to geoengineering
proposals, such as improving energy
efficiency measures and scaling up
renewable technologies.

IASS

Hardly anyone in the discussion groups

thought geoengineering was a full solution
to climate change, and few thought it
should be prioritised over policies to reduce
the amount of carbon we release into
the atmosphere in the first place. No-one
saw the benefit of geoengineering without
mitigation, if they supported it at all.

People also saw a clear difference between

carrying out research and actually running
trials of geoengineering technologies.
They wanted research to be safe, to be
done transparently so that people were
accountable for what they did, and to
be cautious.
Lead researcher Prof Piers Forster from
the University of Leeds said: Consulting
the public, policymakers and industry
from the start told us that we should only
consider geoengineering within the wider
context of climate change mitigation and
adaptation. Geoengineering is not a quick
fix alternative.
Tyndall Centre UEA is also a partner inthe
first European assessment of climate
engineering eutrace.org. EUTRACE
similarly concludes that geoengineering is
not an option for short-term climate policy.

i Further information
Naomi Vaughan is Tyndall Lecturer at UEA
in the School of Environmental Sciences.
Nick Pidgeon is Professor in Environmental
Psychology at Cardiff University.
The IAGP project was funded by the
Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council (EPSRC) and the Natural
Environment Research Council (NERC).
EuTRACE was funded by the European
Commission.

25

theeffect

theeffect

SOUTHAMPTON

National database
of coastal flooding

A 100 year record of

sea-level has been
pieced together
at the University
of Southampton
and the National
Oceanography Centre
IVAN HAIGH
to give historical
context to current sea-levels. The new
database, called Surgewatch, enables
people to find out which storm events in
the past resulted in flooding and what were
the severity and consequences.

Surgewatch
enables people
to find out about
the severity and
consequences of
past flooding

The University of Southampton researchers

used tide-gauge records back to 1915
combined with meteorological data
to identify when high-sea levels had
happened. They then searched archives to
find any information about those specific
dates. The researchers, led by Ivan Haigh
at the University of Southampton and the
Tyndall Centre, spent many hours over
18 months reading through old reports,
books, and online news archives.
Prof Robert Nicholls at the University of
Southampton and the Tyndall Centre said
Our database is a useful tool for coastal
engineers, managers and planners who are
working in the UK to manage the impacts
of current and future extreme sea levels
and coastal flooding.

John Short/Robert Harding

26

The Xaver Storm of 5-6 December 2013

was considered the UKs most serious
tidal surge in 60 years and meant the
evacuation of 10,000 homes on the east of
England coast, with around 1400 flooded
properties. Several homes on top of the
sand cliffs at Hemsby on the East Norfolk
coast collapsed onto the beach. Improved
forecasting, flood defences and emergency

responses meant that there was no loss of

life. In January 1953, 307 people died on
the east of England coast.
At the North Norfolk coast in 2014,
Irene Lorenzoni and colleagues from the
Tyndall Centre at UEA interviewed key
stakeholders and citizens as a component
of a wider project funded by the UKs
Natural Environment Research Council,
assessing the impacts of and responses
to the surge on the landscape and wildlife.
After the flood waters drained, people
recognised the natural resilience of the
coast, as well as its vulnerability.
There is still a lot we dont know about
the long-term impacts of the storm surge
on people, as well as the landscape;
peoples experiences have given us
insights into responses and how these may
be implemented in the future, that we will
follow over time said Irene Lorenzoni.

i Further information
Dr Ivan Haigh is Lecturer in Coastal
Oceanography at the University of
Southampton. Professor Robert Nicholls is
Chair of Engineering and the Environment
at the University of Southampton. Dr Irene
Lorenzoni is Senior Lecturer in the School
of Environmental Sciences at the University
of East Anglia.
Surgewatch is open access
www.surgewatch.org
A user-friendly database of coastal flooding
in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014
Scientific Data www.nature.com/articles/
sdata201521

27

UK Universities
are assessed for
the quality of their
research. In the
2014 Assessment:

Fudan University
Shanghai

UEA Environmental Sciences

1st for Impact

Newcastle
University

Cambridge Land Economy

1st for Output
Southampton Civil Engineering
& Environment
2nd for Research Power
Oxford Geography
2nd for Research Power

University of
Manchester

Cardiff Psychology
2nd for Grade Point Average
Manchester Mechanical,
Aerospace & Civil Engineering
3rd for Impact
Newcastle Civil Engineering
& Geosciences
4th for Impact
Sussex Geography and
Environmental Studies
4th for Impact

University of
East Anglia (HQ)

Cardiff
University

University of
Oxford

University of
Southampton

University of
Cambridge

University of
Sussex

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