P12.11 The mileage figure for a new car is advertised as 48 km/gal in country driving.

The
standard deviation for this mean estimate is expected to be 5 km/gal. Samples are to be taken of
actual driver mileage in several parts of the country to determine the symmetric 90 percent limits
on the 48 km/gal estimate.
a) What is the minimum size sample necessary to ensure that the mean of the sample means is no
more than 3 km/gal from the true mean?
b) If samples of the size you computed in a) are taken and a mean of = 45 km/gal is found to be
an accurate estimate of the mileage, what chance is there that in any particular sample the
average quoted value of 48 km/gal will be exceeded?
P12.12 An engineer wants to determine the size of the sample needed to estimate the mean of a
specific thickness within 0.0008 cm. Quality control records show that the last production run had
a thickness distribution with = 0.05 and = 0.002 cm. Use a 95 percent assurance level and
determine the sample size for the engineer.
1. A traffic control engineer reports that 75% of the vehicles passing through a check point are
from within the state. Assuming that he is correct, what is the probability that at least 3 out of
the next 5 cars we observe are from within the state?
Answer:
( 3) = 1 ( 2)
= 1 0.103516
= 0.08965
2. In a 20 question multiple-choice exam (where each question has four alternatives), you are
forced to guess at each question. Determine the probability of getting exactly 5 correct and the
probability of from 4 or 6 correct.
Answer:
The probability of getting exactly 5 correct.
( = 5) = 0.202331
The probability of from 4 or 6 correct.
(4 6) = ( 6) ( 3)
= 0.78578 0.22516
= 0.56062

3. Having bought a bag of roasted chestnuts, you walked home in the dark eating them with much
gusto. After eating 20, you arrived home and, in opening the remaining 10 under the light, you
found that 7 contained worms. If each chestnut had the same chance of containing worms, what
is the probability that at least 10 of those you ate contained worms?
Answer:
( 10) = 1 ( 9)

= 1 0.0171
= 0.9829

4. Waiting lines in the beefeater provide us with a good example of a poisson process.
Management tells us that on the average each register records 30 sales during the period from
11:50 a.m. to 12.10 p.m. If we monitor a register for a 5 minutes interval, what is the probability
of observing more than 10 sales?
Answer:
( > 10) = 1 ( 10)
= 1 0.8622
= 0.1378

5. At a busy traffic intersection the probability of an individual can having an accident is very
small and has been estimated to be 0.0001. During the period from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m.
approximately 1000 cars pass through this intersection. What is the probability of two or more
accidents during this time period?
Answer:
( 2) = 1 ( 1)
= 1 0.9953
= 0.0047