Daily Markets Update

30 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Euro recovery?
The Euro continued to cling to recent gains as the latest Greek bond auction met all funding requirements for the month of April, helping to
solidify the belief that the worst may be behind for the European Union. The EUR/USD made a progressive move higher yesterday as traders
seemed to put the recent perils of Greece on a back burner now that an aid plan seems to be in place. With a lack of data and news, markets
prepared for end of the month and end of the quarter flows to stir up a languid market ahead of the holiday weekend as traders look to square
up Euro shorts. Talk of a large 1.3500 option that expires Friday could try to keep a cap on those moves.
AUD/USD saw continued strength that was initially fueled by some hawkish statements from the RBA Governor Stevens earlier. AUD/USD was
able to get above the 0.9190 level heading into the London session. The RBA will hold its rate decision meeting next week, with futures now
posting a 75% chance of a 0.25% hike. Stevens had stated that rates were “too low and could not stay at previous levels…”
The yen saw gains today despite softer than expected household spending and preliminary industrial production data, unemployment
remained steady at 4.9%. The USD/JPY continued to consolidate, with today's range between 92.10 and 92.55 a good deal larger than usual
over the past week or so. Flows from the new fiscal year in Japan that begins on April 1st seemed the likely culprit for yen bids as balance
sheets were squared up.
Economic growth in the United Kingdom is projected to be unrevised; scheduled today on our calendars are fourth quarter gross domestic
product final reading which continues to show that the nation resumes in growth without revision.GDP fourth quarter final reading is
projected to resume expansion at 0.3% while on the year, the contraction will resume at -3.3 percent.The economy contracted 0.2 percent in
the third quarter, and the improvement in the economy was as a result of the Bank of England applying the APF program of 200 billion pounds,
which is currently paused for the second month. Also earlier this month we saw the central bank keeping interest rates at 0.50% as the
recession continues to haunt the UK.
The program so far has been successful in improving major sectors that fuel economic growth, especially as service and manufacturing sectors
accounting for 75% and 15% of GDP respectively continue to expand.
PMI services continued its advance in February as it grew to 58.4, the fastest pace in three years. As the largest sector in the economy is
improving after the large stimulus introduced by government and BoE in the form of purchasing bonds and bailouts especially to banks.
The economy as stated in the annual budget report which was released last week, that it is expected to grow between 3-3.5% in 2011, while
this year the Treasury projects the nation to grow by 1-1.5 percent.
Officials seeing that conditions remain stressed in the nation disagreed to pull back 25 billion pounds from the nation like EU commission
requested referring that the economy still needs support to fully recover from the economic downswing.
The stimulus program was aimed at shoring up growth, providing tranquility in the financial system while halting the decline in general price
levels and has been successful especially as yearly CPI stands at 3.0% in February, as inflation rallied, Governor of the BoE Mervyn King, says
the incline is only temporarily.
Although improvement has been taking place, yet from our point of view, we will not witness a strong economic recovery especially as the
banking system has not stabilized, while there is a widened government budget and high unemployment rates that are all reasons which are
undermining growth prospects.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 1.3520
The rebound from 1.3267 is far higher than expected and could still extend further. The upside is expected to be limited first by the cluster
resistances between 1.3530/50 and the minor resistance at by 1.3570. However, note that firm break of 1.3570, confirm by a break of
1.3630/40, will indicate that the five wave sequence from 1.5143 is completed and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3815 resistance
and above. Below 1.3425 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3346 first and 1.3267. Further break there will target
an objective between 1.3111/47, the 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3815 at 1.3111 or the 150.0% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217
from 1.4578 at 1.3147.
Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view and I kept my count, the bigger picture, fall from 1.5143 is apparently developing into a five wave
impulse (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3815, ?). Current decline from 1.3815 might be the fifth wave of this sequence and could draw some
support from 1.3 psychological levels and turn EUR/USD into consolidation. But after all, the medium term bearish outlook will remain
unchanged even in case of rebound. Technically the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up. With the clear break of the
intermediate EW target at target 1.3343/48 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to 1.3532 measuring from
1.3789) we are heading now to 1.3147/11. Following my count we have ended wave 4 of III at 1.3815 and we are heading to the mentioned
targets and we are now in wave 5 of III and only a break of 1.3640 will make me revise my current count for now.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 supports, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209
to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 1.0594
The pull back from 1.0750 could still on and may extend further. Nevertheless, we'd expect downside to be contained well above 1.0547
support and bring rise resumption. However a decisive break of 1.0547 would revive our bearishness for retest of 1.0506, below would extend
the fall from 1.0899 for a stronger retracement of early up move to 1.0424 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0130 to 1.0899) later. Above
1.0624/27 first and 1.0655 after, will target 1.0703 for 1.0750 resistance next. We need to close above 1.0750 to clear the way to the key
resistance at 1.0809, on a breach of this last level will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 0.10131to 1.0898 from 1.0506 at 1.0911 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change of my view: The medium term correction from 1.2296
should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long
term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (Green trend line on chart now at
1.0941) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the
downside, break of 1.0131 supports is needed to invalidate this bullish view. Otherwise, another rise is still expected even in case of deep
pullback.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 1.4335
The EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4232 last week before rebounding. Some more consolidations could possibly be seen with some
indicators showing a loss of steam for the down side and bias up. However, in case of stronger recovery, we'd expect the Fibonacci retracement
at 1.4375 and at 1.4465 or the short term trend indicator now at 1.4380(light blue line on the chart) to hold any rally and bring fall
resumption. On the downside, below 1.4232 will target 1.4 psychological next and target 1.3869.
On the upside, break of 1.4465 will indicate that a short term bottom is in place and stronger recovery could be seen to the medium term trend
indicator at now at 1.4495 (red line on the chart) before resuming the down trend.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the long term picture, the current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down
trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) has confirm this case and we are heading to the 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to
1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside, break of 1.4557 spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Tuesday, March 30Th, 2010, level 1.5039
The consolidation from 1.4783 is likely still in progress, with rise from 1.4797 as the third leg. Stronger recovery could be seen towards 1.5382
resistance but after all, upside should be limited by first by the 23.6% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5171 and secondly by 38.2%
retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, decisive break of
1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 next targets (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from
1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337 and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337).
On the upside the break of 1.5000, as previously indicated, argue that fall from 1.5381 is completed and consolidation from 1.4783 is still in
progress with one more rising leg. Though, even in such case, we'd expect the the Fibonacci retracements at 1.5171 and at 1.5422 to conclude
the consolidation and bring down trend resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the
multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in
an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for
61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD:
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Tuesday, March 30th 2010, level 0.9197
AUD/USD's strong rebound from 0.9001 level and the break above of the lower band of the ascending channel now at 0.9132 (green line on the
chart) suggests that fall from 0.9250 is completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rise from 0.8577 is still in progress. Intraday
bias is now on the upside for 0.9250 first and break there will target a test on 0.9404 high.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture: The correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577.
In other words, whole rally from 0.6008 might be set to resume for another high above 0.9404. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth
wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008
high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.8802 supports is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped
out. Otherwise, we'll remain cautiously bullish in AUD/USD.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 92.59
Bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it's still bounded in tight range below 92.95. Sideway consolidations might continue further but downside
should be contained by 91.76 or by 91.39 and well above 91.08 support and bring rally resumption. Above 92.95 will bring retest of 93.74 high
next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the rise from 88.13 should be resuming whole medium term rally from 84.81
after correction from 93.74 is completed with three waves down to 88.13. Break of 93.74 resistance will also affirm the bullish case that
USD/JPY has bottomed out in medium term at 84.81 and should bring even stronger rise to 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at
97.06 next. On the downside, break of 89.83 support is needed to indicate that rise from 88.13 is completed. Otherwise, the bullish outlook will
remain in favor
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing. However, there is no confirmation of long term reversal yet. Down trend
from 124.13 might still continue as long as 101.43 resistance holds and might extend further towards 79.75. Nevertheless, break of 101.43
resistance will break the lower high lower low pattern and will suggest that a long term bottom is in place. The trend should then reversed to
continue the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 125.07
EUR/JPY rises further to as high as 125.46 so far today and further rise is still expected. As noted before, sustained break of 125.22/26 cluster
resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (LS: 120.69, H: 119.64, RS:
121.05), as indicated previously, and will argue that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in medium term. In such case, further rise should be seen to
126.88 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 124.16 bring support but a move below 122.97 minor support will turn intraday
bias bearish. Further break of 121.05 will suggest that recent down trend is possibly resuming for 119.64 and a beak of this level will target
61.8% projection of 134.36 to 119.64 from 125.19 at 116.09 next
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, That is, medium term rebound from 112.10, which is treated as a correction to
long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or
later to a new low below 112.10. However, note that decisive break of 125.22 cluster resistance will argue that recent fall might have
completed already. Further break of 126.88 resistance will indicate that medium term rise from 112.10 might be still in progress for another
high above 139.21 before completion.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third
wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 139.23
After dipping to 134.53 initially last week, GBP/JPY recovered strongly to as high as 139.55 yesterday. The development suggests that
consolidation from 132.13 is still in progress. Broad based weakness in Japanese yen argues such consolidation is correction whole fall from
150.68 and stronger recovery might be seen. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week and further rise could be seen to 139.36,
touched yesterday but close below, or even further to 141.35 (50.0% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) . However, upside should be
limited below 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below
136.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 134.53 will argue that whole medium term fall from 163.05 is
resuming for 132.13 and a break there will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 150.68 to 132.13 from
139.33 at 127.86 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture; the medium term rebound from 118.18, which is correction to the long term
down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term
down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, decisive break of 143.59 cluster resistance
(61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) is needed to invalidate this view.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Sunday, March 28th, 2010, level 1.0187
The USD/CAD's recovery from 1.0062 extended further to 1.0302 last week, very near of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 1.0062 to 1.0680
at 1.0294, and Perhaps ended at this level. The recent market actions confirm our view that this rebound was merely a correction in the larger
fall. Hence, upside has been limited by 1.0302 so far. Below 1.0169 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.0062 low
first and then parity.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming
the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it is a part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall
from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of
1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, the Outlook for the USD/CAD remains bearish and
we will stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistances held.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 1111.9
The current trading action above 1107.10 (neck line of a Head and shoulders pattern (LS: 1131.5, H: 1145.8, RS: 1133.3)) dampened the
bearish case and in turn, argue that price actions from 1145.8 is perhaps a consolidation ended at 1084.8. Intraday bias remains mildly on the
upside for 1133.3 resistance and then 1145.8 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 1044.5 has resumed for 1163
resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1084.8 will revive the case that rebound from 1044.5 is finished and will flip intraday bias
back to the downside for 1048.8, the target of the head and shoulders pattern.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no
doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the
long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before
the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into
a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Tuesday, March 30th, 2010, level 82.27
The Crude Oil triangle pattern consolidation is perhaps over. The close above 80.94 minor resistance have flip the bias back to the upside and
further break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, for the down side the risk lays below 77.94 Fibonacci level and will argue that rise from
69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise
from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in
case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring
reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn
outlook bearish.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Tuesday, March 26th, 2010, level 10837.9
No Change: As I have said previously during the last week commentaries by reaching the EW target at 10814 and struggling around this level,
we have a risk of a top in place at 10891. We are perhaps only on a small consolidation. We need to get a close over 10828 minor resistance to
rally to our next EW target at 10973 first. On the downside the lower band of the ascending channel in green on the chart now at 10737.70
bring support for now. If the DOW break this level the correction may go first to 10716 on move above this level the short term trend indicator
in light blue on the chart now at 10662 will be the next support. But 10611may hold and bring full resumption of the rally in direction of
10973. As far 10600 held now, I remain bullish for the DOW but with a stop now below 10595.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09. The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up, thus far, are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I
of Cycle wave I of this bull market. Should the current downtrend conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10%
correction, it will be labeled Major wave 4 with up Major wave 5 to follow. The most obvious count would be an abc down from the highs into
DOW 9789.9 and an X or a B wave rally underway now, because we may count 3 or 5 waves up for now the count is not clear. But with the
break up10723: the move from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is perhaps wave 4 of I and the current wave is wave 5 of I. But as said previously we count
only 3 waves up on this rally and the current market actions is perhaps for wave 4 of 5 of I with a possible limit at 10611. After the completion
of this correction, by a close over 10828, we will be in wave 5 of I, in an another rally, with a first target at 10973. Remember that this Wave I is
the the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be profound.
Economic Calendar
Tuesday, Mar 30, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
02:00 NZD Money Supply M3 Y/Y Feb -- -4.5%
04:00 JPY Vehicle Production Y/Y Feb -- 30.7%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Feb 0.4% 1.7%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.0% 1.4%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Feb -- 1.36
06:45 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.6% 0.6%
06:45 EUR French GDP Y/Y Q4 F -0.3% -0.3%
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.3% 0.3%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 F -3.3% -3.3%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -5.1B -4.7B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.0% 0.3%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb -1.0% 3.3%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan 145.5 145.9
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. M/M Jan -0.20% 0.32%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan -0.60% -3.10%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Mar 50.0 46.0
16:00 USD Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 26) -- 7514K
20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 26) -- -81K
20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 26) -- -2534K
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAR 28) -- -44
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar -13 -14
Wednesday, Mar 31, 2010

00:15 USD Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks in Tucson Arizona -- --
00:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Feb 0.3% 1.2%
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Feb 0.4% 0.4%
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit Y/Y Feb 1.5% 1.3%
00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Feb 2.1% -7.0%
00:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Feb 38.1% 47.6%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb -0.1% 0.1%
02:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Mar -- 50.1
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence Mar -- 42.3
05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts Feb 0.865M 0.863M
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb -1.0% -8.1%
05:00 JPY Construction Orders Y/Y Feb -- 15.7%
06:45 EUR French PPI M/M Feb 0.1% 0.7%
06:45 EUR French PPI Y/Y Feb 1.1% 0.4%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar 8K 7K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. Mar 8.2% 8.2%
08:00 EUR Italian PPI M/M Feb 0.2% 0.6%
08:00 EUR Italian PPI Y/Y Feb 0.4% -0.3%
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M Mar P 0.2% 0.1%
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) Y/Y Mar P 1.3% 1.2%
09:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M Mar P 1.3% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y Mar P 1.2% 1.1%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 10.0% 9.9%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 1.1% 0.9%
09:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator Mar 1.90 1.87
10:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. Feb -- 8.6%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 26) -- -4.2%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar 40K -20K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.5% 0.6%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 61.0 62.6
14:00 USD Factory Orders Feb 0.5% 1.7%
14:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee Mar -- 56.0
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 26) -- 7245K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 26) -- -2715K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 26) -- -2422K

16:30 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks in Hartford Connecticut -- --
16:30 USD Fed's Elizabeth Duke Speaks in Scottsdale Arizona -- --
20:15 USD Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Mar -- 0.2
22:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar -- 0.1%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Index Mar -- 52.5
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Mar -- 53.8
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation Y/Y Mar -- 1.9%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 -8 -18
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q1 -14 -24
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 -15 -19
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 -18 -22
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 -0.4% -13.8%
23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp Y/Y Feb -- -3.1%
Thursday, Apr 1, 2010

00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Feb -1340M -1176M
05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y Mar -- 35.1%
05:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR Y/Y Mar -- -9.7%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.0% 0.0%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Feb -0.4% -3.4%
07:30 CHF SVME-PMIs Index Mar 59.0 57.4
07:45 EUR Italian PMI Index Manufacturing Mar 52.6 51.6
07:50 EUR French PMI Index Manufacturing Mar F 56.3 56.3
07:55 EUR German PMI Index Manufacturing Mar F 59.6 59.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Index Manufacturing Mar F 56.3 56.3
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages M/M Feb -- 0.1%
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages Y/Y Feb -- 2.8%
08:30 GBP PMI Index Manufacturing Mar 56.8 56.6
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar -- -77.4%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 27) 439K 442K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAR 20) 4618K 4648K
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Mar 57.0 56.5
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Mar 67.0 67.0
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb -1.0% -0.6%
16:00 EUR Italian New Car Registrations Y/Y Mar -- 20.6%

18:00 EUR Italian Budget Balance (EUR) Mar -- -13.0B
18:20 EUR Italian Budget Balance (EUR) (YTD) Mar -- -8.8B
20:00 USD Fed's James Bullard Speaks in St. Louis Missouri -- --
21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales Mar 9.00M 7.91M
21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales Mar 12.00M 10.36M
21:00 USD Fed's William Dudley Speaks in Lexington Virginia -- --
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Mar -- 2.2%
Friday, Apr 2, 2010

08:00 EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) Q4 -- 5.2%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls Mar 190K -36K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Mar 9.7% 9.7%
12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Mar 10K 1K
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning M/M Mar 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning Y/Y Mar 1.9% 1.9%
12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours Mar 33.9 33.8
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Daily Markets Update

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30 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

Tuesday, Mar 30, 2010

Wednesday, Mar 31, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 26) -- -2422K

Thursday, Apr 1, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

16:00 EUR Italian New Car Registrations Y/Y Mar -- 20.6%

Friday, Apr 2, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

For clients in the United Kingdom:

For clients of SFM Finanz.

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