Industry Update

Friday, November 6, 2015

Leasing

FINANCE

CCI hits 10-month high

Rec : NEUTRAL

We upgrade our recommendation to NEUTRAL as the governments stimulus

measures have started to revive confidence of grassroots consumers again. Top
picks are LIT, TK, and THANI; a dividend play is ASK.

CCI hits 10-month high

According to the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, University of
the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thailands consumer confidence index (CCI)
rose from 72.1 in September to a ten-month high of 73.4 in October. If the
government can inject B136bn money from its first phase of stimulus
packages, which include B60bn village funds (B1m for each village), B36bn
sub-district funds (for 7,250 sub-districts, B5m each), and B40bn funds for
small project investments nationwide, it would help revive confidence and the
economy continuously.

Sector Index : 2,300.13

SET Index : 1,413.16.75

TK benefits most, followed by SAWAD, MTLS, LIT

The improving consumer confidence would help boost loan demands since
4Q15 onwards. Loan providers whose clients are in the low-end to grassroots
segments would benefit most from this situation, including 1) auto cash and
personal loans (plus nano-finance): SAWAD and MTLS, 2) motorcycle loans:
TK, GL, and S11, and 3) credit card and personal loans: AEONTS.
Additionally, LIT, a factoring loan provider which focuses on buying trade
receivables that engage directly in the government bidding projects, will
benefit from increasing procurement biddings of the government, especially
for small projects.

Top picks are TK, THANI, LIT. Dividend play is ASK

We upgrade our recommendation from UNDERWEIGHT to NEUTRAL.

TK(2016FV@B13.60) is a turnaround stock whose earnings would rebound
significantly from now on. The business of THANI(2016FV@B4) would start to
improve since 3Q15 and more remarkably in 2016 from a spread uptrend.
LIT(2016FV@B15.15) would show a profit growth of 34.7%yoy in 2016. For
investors who are interested in dividend yield of 7-8% p.a., we recommend
ASK(2016FV@B23).

Key Data (Bm)

FY: Dec 31
Net Profit
EPS (B)
PER (x)
BVS (B))
PBV (X)
ROAE
ROAA
Debt to Equity (x)

Source : ASPS Research

esearch Protection @Copyright 2015

FY13A
13,361
167.21
8.5
1,018
1.40
17.9%
4.8%
2.59

FY14A
12,279
121.36
15.3
848
2.19
14.7%
4.0%
2.75

FY15F
13,266
121.52
18.9
874
2.63
14.6%
4.0%
2.49

FY16F
14,609
133.82
17.2
947
2.43
14.7%
4.2%
2.46

FY17F
15,983
146.40
15.7
1,008
2.28
15.0%
4.3%
2.50

Usanee Liurut
License No.: 017928
usanee@asiaplus.co.th
Woralak Varavinit
Analyst Assistant

This report is a rough translation of one of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research
team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies.) The reports and information contained herein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews
with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we
cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities.

ASIA PLUS SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015

Industry Update
Research Department
Consumer Confident Index

Key Assumption table

100
Rec.

90

Closing
Price (B)

80

Target
PER/PBV (X)

Fair value
(B)

2015F
EPS
2015
(B)

Upside
(% )

2015

PER
(x)

PBV
(x)

Div
Yield
(% )

ROE

FINANCE

70

AEONTS

BUY

99.50

PBV 2.61x

127.00

28%

10.44

9.5

2.0

3.7%

23.1%

ASK

BUY

18.90

PBV 1.77x

21.80

15%

2.04

9.3

1.5

7.6%

17.0%

GL

SELL

16.90

PBV 2.74x

11.75

-30%

0.54

31.0

3.9

2.1%

18.0%

IFS

HOLD

2.72

PER 12x

3.10

14%

0.25

11.0

1.2

4.6%

10.9%

30

JMT

BUY

15.50

PBV 5.25x

24.50

58%

0.44

34.9

3.3

1.4%

13.6%

20

KCAR

HOLD

8.80

PER 15x

10.80

23%

0.72

12.2

1.2

4.9%

10.3%

10

SAWAD

HOLD

43.50

PBV 9.10x

36.50

-16%

1.07

40.8

10.9

1.0%

29.0%

THANI

BUY

2.92

PBV 2.30x

4.00

37%

0.32

9.0

1.5

7.2%

18.5%

TK

BUY

10.70

PBV 1.33x

11.10

4%

0.72

14.8

1.3

3.4%

8.9%

BUY

13.00

PBV 2.70x

17.30

33%

1.04

12.5

2.0

4.8%

17.0%

AUCT

BUY

12.40

PBV 16.3x

14.30

15%

0.42

29.7

14.1

3.0%

48.8%

LIT

BUY

8.75

PER 30x

11.25

29%

0.38

23.3

4.4

2.6%

19.7%

HOLD

3.42

PBV 2.32x

3.20

-6%

0.28

12.2

2.1

4.9%

17.7%

60
50

Oct 15

Sept 15

Jul 15

Aug 15

Jun 15

Apr 15

May 15

Mar 15

Jan 15

Feb 15

Dec 14

Oct 14

Nov 14

Sept 14

Jul 14

Aug 14

Jun 14

Apr 14

May 14

Mar 14

Jan 14

Feb
. 14

40

COMMERCE
SINGER

CCI

Future CCI

MAI

GCAP

Source: ASPS

Historical PER Band of SETFIN

25

Year to date return

200%

195.5%

170%

20

+2 SD

140%

+1 SD

110%

15

154.4%

78.2%

80%

60.1%

Average
50%

10

-1 SD

-2 SD

23.8%20.2%
6.6%

20%

5.9% 5.4%

-10%

-3.5% -4.2% -5.0% -5.3%-5.6%-14.9%

-2.0%

-40%

Source: ASPS

Source: ASPS

KCAR

SET

GCAP

AEONTS

IFS

JMT

AUCT

TK

THANI

2015

ASK

2014

SINGER

2013

MTLS

2012

SETFIN

2011

SAWAD

GL

2010

LIT

-70%