Ch. 27 Climate Change

12/3/2015
Ch. 27 Climate Change
The Ecology of Climate Change

Earths rotation affects the amount of sunlight
striking the different parts of the globe and causes
the seasons
Tilt of Earths axis varies from 22.5 to 24 over a
cycle of 41,000 years
This is responsible for the ice ages- glacial expansion
2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Variations in climate have been affecting life on
Earth and its evolution over geologic time
Climate influences the function of natural
ecosystems
The current widely accepted belief is that humans
have the ability to alter Earths climate and they are
doing so
1896: Arrhenius published the first calculation of
global warming from human emissions of CO2
12/3/2015

Since the Industrial Revolution began, the burning
of fossil fuels has led to an exponential increase in
the concentration of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
This has led to a general pattern of warming over
the past century
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html
1300 - 1850.
12/3/2015
Earths Climate Has Warmed over the Past

Century
Mean Annual Temperature (C)

1970s
0.00
1980s
0.18
1990s
0.31
2000s
0.51
Earths climate has warmed by an estimated 0.74 C

over the past century
The rate of warming during the second half of the
century has been about double that of the first half
3.2 1.5
.6
All things are not equal The Temperature is changing unevenly

Polar regions have warmed the
most (Artic)
The winter months show the
greatest warming
Minimum temperatures have
risen twice as fast as maximum
10% decrease in snow cover/ice
extent since the late 1960s
.6
1 1.5 2
1.5
.6
.3 . 1 .1
.3
.6
1 1.5 2.2
The ocean has absorbed > 80% of the added heat
Figure 27.2a
Figure 27.2b
45
14
Arctic summer sea ice
extent (million km2)
Northern Hemisphere spring

snow cover (million km2)
.3
Average global ocean temperature has increased to

a depth of at least 3000 feet
40
35
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
12
10
8
6
4
1900
Year
(a) Northern Hemisphere
.1 .1
Ocean Temperature Change
30
1900
.3
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
(b) Arctic summer sea ice extent
Warming of ocean surface is largest over

the Arctic Ocean
Change in global average upper

ocean heat content (1022J)
12/3/2015
20
10
0
10
20
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
(c) Global average heat content of the upper ocean waters
Rising sea levels

Warming causes seawater to expand, raising the
sea level
Figure 27.2d
Global average
sea level change (mm)
200
150
100
50
0
50
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
(d) Average sea level
12/3/2015
Changes in precipitation have not been

spatially or temporally uniform
Climate Change Has a Direct Influence on the

Physiology and Development of Organisms
Precipitation trend (mm/day/50yr), 1950-2010

75
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0.4
1.0
2.0
4.0
60
Latitude
45
30
15
0
15
30
45
60
180
120
60
0
Longitude
60
120
180
How does temperature affect organisms?

Is there a difference in the effect on endotherms
versus ectotherms?
How could the global patterns of warming seen over
the last century impact organisms?
Are some groups more vulnerable to the effects of
warming than others?
Precipitation from 1950 - 2010. Precipitation trend is in

mm/day over the period of observation. Stippling indicates the
observed trend is statistically significant (From Dai 2011).
CC influence on Physiology and

Development of Organisms
Endotherms have a constant body temperature
Environmental temperatures affect metabolism,
determining heat exchange with the environment
The larger the body size, the less surface area for
heat dissipation
Geographic trend for average body size to increase
with decreasing mean annual temperature
In both birds and mammals, a smaller body size is
more energetically efficient in a warm climate
Ectotherms
Ectotherm metabolic activity increases
exponentially with temperature, rather then
linearly
If a species is at the upper thermal tolerance limit, then
the species might be in trouble
Dillion from Univ. of Wyoming showed that ectotherms
were more vulnerable to temperature rises in tropical
regions
Metabolic rates increased more quickly in the
tropics than in the temperate or artic regions!
WHY?
12/3/2015
Mean Annual Temperature (C)

1970s
0.00
1980s
Arctic
North temperate
Tropical
South temperate
0.18
50
0.31
2000s
0.51
Change in metabolic rate

( W per g3/4 body mass)
1990s
Change in temperature (C)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
40
30
20
10
0
10
0.5
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
Year
(a) Change in mean temperature over
5 years in different regions of globe
3.2 1.5
.6
.3
.1 .1
.3
.6
1 1.5 2
1.5
.6
.3 . 1 .1
.3
.6
2000
2010
Year
(b) Change in metabolic rates in
different regions
1 1.5 2.2
(Data from Dillon et al. 2010.)
Thermal Tolerance
Several species of
porcelain crabs live in the
intertidal of the eastern
Pacific
The upper thermal
tolerance limits LT 50
temperature at which 50%
mortality occurs
Thermal Tolerance
Thermal Tolerance
42
40
38
California
Chile
N. Gulf of California
Panama
36
LT50 (C)
Species above the

line are ok
because the max
lethal temperature
is above what the
max habitat
temperature is in
the environment.
34
32
30
28
2610
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Tropical species generally have a current

maximum habitat temperature (MHT) closer to
their LT50
Relatively small ability to increase LT 50 through
acclimation
Other tropical invertebrates living in intertidal
zones are have shown similar vulnerabilities
Hypothesis = tropical ectotherms are more
threatened by CC than species from midlatitudes because tropical species live
closer to their temp limit
Maximal habitat temperature (C)

12/3/2015
Relative performance
1
Lower critical
temperature
(Tmin)
Terrestrial Species Response to CC
Upper critical
temperature
(Tmax )
Optimal
temperature
(Topt)
.5
Impacts on terrestrial plant species are more

complicated
Response of plants to changes in climate involve
Tolerance range
0
Body temperature
Temperature
Sprint speed (mm per sec)
1200
Precipitation
1000
Sometimes CO2 as a fertilizer
800
Regional changes affect soil and microhabitat

conditions
600
400
18
20 22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38 40
Body temperature (C)
Figure 27.6
2.0
In the past century analysis of tree rings shows:
Mortality rate (%/yr)
Tree Growth
1
The temperate forest of Eastern North America
1.0
0.5
0.0
correlated to an increase in the length of the

growing season
3
1960
1980
2000
2.0
Mortality rate (%/yr)
In Western North America, increasing droughts

associated with increase in mortality
Pacific Northwest
California
Interior
1.5
Fir
Pine
Hemlock
Other
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Year
Red Indicate Increase Mortality Blue indication decrease
Tree mortality rates increased, greater in the

west than the east
3.5
Western region
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Tree mortality (percent per year)
4.0
4.0
Eastern region
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Alberta Saskatchewan
Manitoba
British
Columbia
Mixed results from studies of the response of

tree growth
Some studies have shown localized increases
the past 50 years of warming
Most showed declines in growth rates and
increases in mortality related to water stress
Sites from the entire boreal forest region of
Canada were studied from 1963-2008 (96
sample plots)
Figure 27.7
Arctic
Quebec
Ontario
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Trembling aspen
Jack pine
Black spruce
White spruce
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
12/3/2015
Shrub Expansion in Northern Quebec

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward
migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in
response to climate warming
Low shrub and grass-like vegetation in tundra
contributed preferentially to the greening trend,
while forested areas were less likely to show
significant trends in Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI)
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/shrub-spread.html
http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120010311.pdf
Phenology- timing of seasonal activity

Many processes related to activity
Migration
Reproduction
Hibernation
Many studies show that activities that take place in

spring have occurred earlier and earlier since the
1960s
My trip to Alaska January 2014

England - 47 year study
of common woodland
birds (1961-2007)
Mean egg-laying date
has become earlier by
about 14 days,
beginning in the mid1970s
Anne Chamantier, Oxford University
12/3/2015
Migratory birds
40
Mean laying date

30
1= April 1
Study of 20 migratory bird species that breed in

England and winter in sub-Saharan Africa
For 17 of the 20 species, the arrival date in
England has been earlier in response to
increases in temperature trends in Africa
20
10
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
The departure date has also advanced, so the

length of time in England is the same, but starts
about 8 days earlier (data span 30 years)
Mean laying date declined

over the study period - they
are laying their eggs earlier
150
340
140
330
130
320
120
310
110
300
100
290
90
280
80
270
70
260
60
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
250
2001
Meta AnalysisImpact of CC on plants and animals in Europe

Mean departure date
Mean arrival date
Figure 27.9
203 plant and animal species

Overall, shifts are larger at higher latitudes
Amphibians had a greater shift toward early

breeding times than other taxonomic groups
2x as fast as trees, birds, butterflies
Butterfly emergence or migratory arrival advanced

3x as fast as first herbaceous plant flowering
Parmesan 2007
Most species are experiencing advance

of spring activity in Alberta regions
Change in spring timing
(days/decade)
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Individual species
30
35
Amphibian
Bird
Butterfly
Herbs and grass

Shrub
Tree
Fish
Fly
Mammal
12/3/2015
Study of 92 tree species in the eastern

United States from 1999-2009
No consistent evidence that shifts in these
populations are greatest in areas where
climate has changed the most
Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the
tree species, juveniles have higher optimal
temperature and optimal precipitation,
respectively, than adults
Tree species might respond to climate
change by having faster turnover as dynamics
accelerate with longer growing seasons and
higher temperatures, before there is evidence
of poleward migration at biogeographic
scales
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12382/abstract
Arctic northern expansion of shrub species

Study (1942 to 2002) shows that the cover of alder,
willow and dwarf birch has been increasing
most obvious on hill slopes and valley bottoms
Studies in Canada, Scandinavia, and parts of

Russia have reported similar findings
Figure 27.15
Plant surveys in 1977 vs. 2007 in So. Cal. over

an elevation gradient
30-year period
0.4 C increase in mean temp
precipitation variability increased
decreased snow cover
Average elevation of the dominant plant

species increased by 65 m;
All species except one showed a distribution
shift up the mountain range
Change in elevation (m)
Range Shifts
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
CC & Geographic Distribution of Species
CC Impact on Species Interactions
Direct influence on species-specific temperature

tolerances
Higher elevation distribution are constrained by
minimum temperatures
Minimum temperature are rising
Often reproduction is timed to correspond to

resource availability
For herbivores, this is the plant growing season
10
12/3/2015
Study conducted over six summers in western

Greenland
Onset of plant growing season (based on plant

species emergence) advanced by 14.8 days
Monitored caribou calving season and plant

phenology (timing and progression of emergence)
Onset of calving advanced by 1.28 days
Successful caribou reproduction depends on

synchrony of calving with resource abundance
This results in a rapidly developing mismatch

between caribou reproduction and food supply
In the far north, plant nutrient content and digestibility

peak soon after emergence and then decline rapidly

There is a difference in the environmental cues that
trigger each event
Dates of 5% emergence
or births
Caribou are cued by changes in day length

same from year to year
160
Caribou
150
The growing season of the plants is correlated with

mean spring temperature
140
Forage species
130
increased by 4.6 C during the study
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
0.6
0.4
0.2
Calf production
Early calf mortality
0.6
0.4
0.2
Calf mortality increased as the degree of mismatch increased
0.5
Index of trophic mismatch
1.0
Calf production decreased as the degree of mismatch increased
11
12/3/2015
Water temperature (C)
Lake Systems and CC

Changes in phenology of phytoplankton and
zooplankton populations in Lake Washington
between 1962 - 2002
Spring (Mar - June) water temperatures showed
significant warming trends
The upper 10m water layer increased in temperature
an average of 1.4 C over 40 years
In response to this warming, the spring

phytoplankton bloom advanced by 27 days over
those 40 years
18
June
16
14
May
12
10
April
8
6 March
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Increasing trend in temperature

over in the top 10-m water in Lake Washington
Day of year
Day of year
180
140
140
120
120
100
100
1960
80
1960
160
1970
1980
1990
2000
Timing of the diatom bloom
1970
1980
1990
2000
Relation of Daphnia densities in May to the mismatch

(in days) between the timing of diatom bloom and
Daphnia peak for the period of 19772002
Mountain pine beetle (native to western North

America) attacks most trees in the genus Pinus
can erupt into epidemics
Over the past ten years, these epidemics have been

larger than previously recorded
12
12/3/2015
Forest Systems and CC
Forest Systems and CC
Region has experienced

increased temperatures
increased frequency of drought
This has decreased tree health and increased

susceptibility to beetles
Regional warming has led to range expansion of
the beetle, especially at higher elevations
Warming has also affected the beetles life history
Historical life history pattern

of single generation per year
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Recent life history pattern
of two generations per year
The beetle flight season (flying to attack new trees)

starts one month earlier and lasts twice as long
As a result, some beetle populations have

two generations in a year instead of one
Arctic Fox vs Red Fox
Plant Communities and CC
Red fox its northern range limit is determined by

temperature limitation
Arctic fox its southern limit is determined by
interspecific competition with the red fox
Shifts in species composition and diversity

Examination of the impact of climate warming on
plant communities in the Santa Catalina Mountains
comparison with data from 1963 resampled 2011
Arctic warming for the past 40 years has allowed

red fox populations to expand north, leading to a
decline in Arctic fox populations
During that time

the mean annual rainfall has decreased
the mean annual temperature has increased by
0.25 C per decade between 1949 and 2011
22
600
21
450
20
300
19
150
18
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
0
2010
Mean annual rainfall (mm)
75 % of the species now grow in a more narrow range

some shifting as much as 1000ft up the slope
Mean annual temperature ( C)
Figure 27.19a
Resampled the original elevation transect

Focused on the 27 most abundant species
Year
(a)
13
12/3/2015
Figure 27.19b
Juniperus deppeana var. deppeana
Ocean Systems and CC
Pinus strobiformis
Pseudotsuga menzesii var. glauca
Quercus arizonica
Quercus emoryi
Quercus gambelii
Quercus hypoleucoides
TREES
Robina neomexicana
Arctostaphylos pungens
Ceanothus fendleri
Garrya wrightii
WOODY
SHRUBS
Mimosa aculeaticarpa
Arceuthobium vaginatum
Brickellia californica
Lotus greenei
SMALL
SHRUBS
AND HERBS
Pteridium aquilinum
Packera neomexicana
Study of calanoid copepods (crustaceans

zooplankton) in the eastern North Atlantic and
European shelf seas
Compared distribution 1958 - 1999 and sea
surface temp change
Thalictrum fendleri
Agave schottii
Dasylirion wheeleri
Nolina microcarpa
SUCCULENTS
Yucca madrensis
Aristida ternipes var. ternipes

Bouteloua curtipendula
Muhlenbergia emersleyi
Muhlenbergia porteri
GRASSES
Urochloa arizonica
177,000 samples collected

has monitored 1946
Elevation (feet) 2500 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
White bars are 1963 elevational range data black bars represent 2011 elevation
data from the current study.

Increases in regional sea surface temperatures
have led to a major reorganization of
zooplankton species composition and
biodiversity in the entire North Atlantic Basin
All associations show consistent, long-term changes
Warmer-water species moved north by 10 latitude
Colder-water species retreated to the north
This is more pronounced than any movement seen

for terrestrial organisms
Why should we care?


These types of geographical shifts may have
serious consequences for North Sea fisheries
If they continue, could lead to changes in fish
abundance
Stocks of northern species, such as cod, could
decline or even collapse

Net primary productivity and decomposition are
two key ecosystem processes
These control energy and nutrients in the
ecosystem
Climate has a direct influence on both processes

Site-based studies of local ecosystems can be
difficult to interpret because there are multiple
factors influencing these ecosystems
soils, topography, CO2 concentration
Current studies used data from satellites

14
12/3/2015
Net Primary Productivity
CC impact on NPP
Net primary productivity (NPP) is defined as

the net flux of carbon from the atmosphere into
green plants per unit time
Energy potential available for the next trophic level
Net primarily productivity estimated from satellitebased measures of absorbed

can examine temporal and spatial changes
Study from 1982 - 1999

Global changes in climate have eased climatic
constraints on plant growth and NPP increased 6%
over the 18-year study
largest increase in tropical ecosystems
Figure 27.22a
CC impact on NPP
A more recent analysis used the same methods
but extended the analysis to cover 2002-2009
The decade between 2000 and 2009 is the
warmest recorded since instrumental
measurements started
Results suggest a reduction in NPP of 0.55
petagrams of carbon as a result of regional drying
that would constrain plant growth
1.5
0
Change in mean NPP (19821999) (percentage per year)
1.5
(a)
Figure 27.23a
CC impact on NPP
Spatial patterns of NPP over the past decade have
not been globally consistent
NPP has increased over large areas in the Northern
Hemisphere
65% of vegetated land area had an increase
NPP has generally decreased in the Southern

Hemisphere
21
(a)
14
0
7
7
NPP trend (20002009) (gC/m2/yr)
14
21
70% of vegetated land area had a decrease

Higher temperatures lead to increased evaporation
and reduced water availability
15
12/3/2015
Are humans to blame for CC?

The preindustrial level of atmospheric carbon
dioxide was 280 parts per million (ppm)
The level will double sometime this century
In October 2015 it was 398 ppm
Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas,

other significant components include:
methane (CH4)
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm Earths

surface
There are some consistent patterns in the

predictions from these GCMs
What effect will doubling the concentration of carbon

dioxide in the atmosphere have on global climate
systems?
an increase in average global temperature
General circulation models (GCMs) are complex

computer models of Earths climate system
Give insight into the influence of increasing CO2
concentration on large-scale patterns of global
climate
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report

(2013) suggests a global average surface temperature
increase of 1.1 to 6.4 C by 2100
Last glacial maximum had decrease 5C
an increase in global precipitation
These changes would not be evenly distributed

greatest warming during winter months and in
northern latitudes
Temperature
Dec Jan Feb
Precipitation
What are the models saying?

Increasing climate variation is predicted
(mm day 1)
( C)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
2080-2099
June July Aug
Precipitation
Temperature
0.8
The predictions that rising concentrations of

greenhouse gases will significantly affect global
climate in the future are consistent
(mm day 1)
( C)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
more storms
greater snowfall
increased variability in rainfall
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1980-1999
16
12/3/2015
Uncertainty in Predicting Ecological

Response to CC
Questions
What are the sources of uncertainty in predicting the
response of ecological systems to future climate
change?
Uncertainty in predicting ecological systems

response to future climate change
the limitations in our understanding of processes that
control the current distribution and abundance of
species
the uncertainly associated with the specific
predictions of how the climate in a given region will
change in response to GHGs
What type of investigations are being undertaken to

examine possible impacts of future climate change?
What are some models used to investigate the
response of biosystem to climate change?

Response to CC

Response to CC
A number of experimental studies in various
environments (tropical to polar) show that
communities and ecosystems respond strongly to
warming
Research is being conducted at all levels of

organization, from individual to global scale
The studies fall into two categories:
examining the response of ecological systems to
experimental warming and the associated
environmental factors
using models of ecological systems to evaluate the
response to future climate scenarios
Most studies have been done at a single location for

a short period of time
Comparison among studies is difficult

diverse techniques used to produce warming
experimentally
Figure 27.25
International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) is a

coordinated international effort using standardized
methods
Network of Arctic and alpine research sites
throughout the world
3
4
North
Pole
11
5
8
9
6
7
(a)
2
1
Experimental and observational studies use

standardized protocols to measure responses of
tundra plants and plant communities to increases in
temperature
Investigators from 13 countries working at 11 sites
10
(b)
17
12/3/2015
Passive warming treatments

Increased plant-level air temperature by 13 C
This is in the range of observed and predicted tundra
region warming
Responses were rapid, detected in whole plant

communities after two growing seasons
increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and
grasses
decreased cover of mosses and lichens
decreased species diversity
Network of Ecosystem Warming Studies

Experiments focus on the response of soil
respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and
aboveground NPP
There are 32 research sites in four broadly defined
biomes
high (latitude or altitude) tundra, low tundra,
grassland, forest
Minnesota
Peatlands
Howland Ny Alesund Abisko

Forest
Flakaliden
Toolik
Lake
CLIMEX
TERA
Shortgrass
Steppe
Buxton
Niwot
Ridge
Rocky
Mountain
Oak Ridge
Huntington
Forest
Rio Mayo
Harvard
Forest
Wytham
Woods
Results show considerable variation in response to

warming
Across all sites, experimental warming (0.3 to 6.0 C)
for 2 to 9 years duration
Increases were seen in
soil respiration rates, by 20%
larger in forested ecosystems
Net nitrogen mineralization Organic N -> N2 rates inc.

by 46%
NPP, by 19%
The Future
Most research focuses on developing mathematical
models that can provide information on future
climate change impacts
The bioclimatic envelope model is one of the most
widely applied modeling approaches to investigate
the response of species
Qualitative relationship between climate and species
geographic distribution
larger in low tundra ecosystems
18
12/3/2015
Figure 27.27
The Future
Current Climate
Conditions
18 C
19 C
Projected Future
Climate
Conditions
The quantitative relationship between

species distribution and current climate
can then be used to predict the potential
distribution of the species under changed
climate conditions.
19 C
20 C
22 C
20
23 C
Longitude
Latitude
21 C
21 C
Abundance
Latitude
20 C
22
21
Temperature ( C)
22 C
Investigation of the effect of climate change on 134

tree species in the eastern United States with 36
environmental variables
23 C
23
The current distribution of the species (red

dots represent local populations) is related
quantitatively to features of the climate,
such as mean annual temperature (shown
as temperature isopleths).
This relationship can be used to map the possible

geographic range of the species under different
climate change scenarios
24 C
Climate change could have large impacts on

suitable habitat for these tree species
Longitude
RF-Current
FIA-Current
FIA-Current
GCM3 Avg Lo
GCM3 Avg Hi
GCM3 Avg Hi
46
13
710 1120 2130 3150 >50
<1
Sugar maple (Acer saccharum)
RF-Current
GCM3 Avg Lo
46 710 1120 2130 3150

13
<1
(b) Slash pine (Pinus elliottii)
>50
Projected changes in climate and tree species richness for North

America under future climate change scenario of CGCM2 (2071-2100)
By combining
individual species
into groups based
on forest types,
potential changes
in the geographic
distribution of
forest communities
could be examined
Temperature
FIA - Current
Species richness
RF - Current
GCM3Avg Lo
White/Red/Jack
Spruce/Fir
Lnglg/Slsh
Lobolly/Shrtif
Precipitation
GCM3Avg Hi
Oak/Pine
Oak/Hickory
Oak/Gum/Cypr
Elm/Ash/Ctnw
3 to 2
2 to 1
1 to 0
01
12
22
Maple/Beech/Birch
Aspen/Birch
NoDat/NoFor
Degrees C
< 60
60 to 30
30 to 20
20 to 0
010
1020
2030
3060
119 to 85
84 to 61
60 to 39
38 to 21
20 to 6
5 to 10
1126
2745
4684
% of current values
Tree richness
19
12/3/2015
Predicting Future Climate Change Requires an

Understanding of the Interactions between the Biosphere
and the Other Components of Earths System
The global carbon cycle links the atmosphere,

hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere on a
global scale
50% of the carbon released through human
activities remains in the atmosphere
Of the remaining 50%,
26% is taken up by terrestrial ecosystems
24% is taken up by the oceans
forms carbonic acid, which increases surface acidity
Net Ecosystem Productivity

Diffusion is the primary factor controlling the
exchange of carbon between the atmosphere
and surface waters
On land, the major factors are
the net uptake of carbon by terrestrial
ecosystems as NPP - carbon storage
the loss of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems in
decomposition
The difference in the rate between these two

processes is net ecosystem productivity (NEP)
Net Ecosystem Productivity

Net Ecosystem Production, NEP amount of carbon
accumulated by the ecosystem
NEP = GPP - (R plant + R heterotrophs + R
decomposers)
A measure of Net Ecosystem Production is of great
interest when determining the CO2 balance
between various ecosystems, or the entire earth,
and the atmosphere
Models try to simulate the basic processes of NPP
and decomposition
In order to predict the fate of future CO2

emissions
NPP increases and there is a net removal of
carbon dioxide negative feedback
NPP decreases (or decomposition
increases) and there is a net addition of
carbon dioxide positive feedback
Terrestrial biosphere model developed at the

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research
Terrestrial plants groups attributes
C3 or C4
Deciduous vs Evergreen
Woody or Herbaceous
P/S & Respiration modeled
Terrestrial biosphere model used future

climate change scenarios based on five
general circulation models
Results show great uncertainty in the
predicted patterns of carbon exchange
This is mainly the result of large differences
in climate projections for each model
atmospheric and soil condition
Rates of decomposition organic matter
20
12/3/2015
4
C-SOURCE
PgC/yr
2
C-SINK
4
1900
1940
1980
2020
2060
2100
In 3 out of the 5 climate projection the terrestrial

biosphere was a source of carbon to the atmosphere by
the year 2100. With would imply that we have a positive
feed back loop.
Earth and Environmental System Podcast

Dr. Christain Shorey
Can we do anything
about climate change
and should we?
http://inside.mines.edu/~cshorey/pages/syg
n.html
21

Ch. 27 Climate Change

Transféré par

Informations du document

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Ch. 27 Climate Change

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

12/3/2015

Ch. 27 Climate Change

The Ecology of Climate Change

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

The Ecology of Climate Change

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

The Ecology of Climate Change

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Earths Climate Has Warmed over the Past

Mean Annual Temperature (C)

Earths climate has warmed by an estimated 0.74 C

All things are not equal The Temperature is changing unevenly

The ocean has absorbed > 80% of the added heat

Northern Hemisphere spring

Average global ocean temperature has increased to

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Ocean Temperature Change

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

(b) Arctic summer sea ice extent

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Warming of ocean surface is largest over

Change in global average upper

(c) Global average heat content of the upper ocean waters

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Rising sea levels

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

(d) Average sea level

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Changes in precipitation have not been

Climate Change Has a Direct Influence on the

Precipitation trend (mm/day/50yr), 1950-2010

How does temperature affect organisms?

Precipitation from 1950 - 2010. Precipitation trend is in

CC influence on Physiology and

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Mean Annual Temperature (C)

Change in metabolic rate

Change in temperature (C)

(Data from Dillon et al. 2010.)

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

Species above the

Tropical species generally have a current

Maximal habitat temperature (C)

Terrestrial Species Response to CC

Impacts on terrestrial plant species are more

Sprint speed (mm per sec)

Sometimes CO2 as a fertilizer

Regional changes affect soil and microhabitat

Body temperature (C)

2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

In the past century analysis of tree rings shows:

Mortality rate (%/yr)

The temperate forest of Eastern North America

correlated to an increase in the length of the

In Western North America, increasing droughts