Rohin Shah

rrs378
12/1/2014
Management and Organizations
Mt. Everest Case
What is one decision-making bias that you believe may have played in role in the 1996
Mount Everest tragedy and why?
One recurring decision-making bias in the Mt. Everest case is overconfidence.
Overconfidence is simply the belief that you are better at something than you actually
are, and is an extremely prevalent bias. For example, Dr. Weathers health was rapidly
deteriorating on summit day, to the point where one eye was completely blurred over
and [he had] lost all depth perception. Despite this obviously dangerous situation, Dr.
Weathers refused to turn back to Camp IV and instead decided to proceed on the climb,
putting himself and everyone around him in danger. This is a classic case of
overconfidence, where Dr. Weathers believed his physical ailments and problems were
not of importance and disregarded them. Although he eventually regained his strength
and walked into the camp, he did so at the surprise and awe of everyone around him; his
survival was an anomaly and somehow he was able to survive through his
overconfidence.
Likewise, Hansen also faced deteriorating health conditions, but remained dead set on
climbing Everest. Early on, Hansen got frostbite on his toes and his larynx froze over,
and quickly felt weak; regardless, he decided to push on. Hansen displays overconfidence
in that he understood the dangers of travelling at less than 100%, and continued to climb
despite his health issues that were very clear to everyone else on the trip. While his
behavior does show overconfidence, it also exemplifies sunk costs and escalation of
commitment. Dr. Weathers explained that Hansen spent the entire previous year
agonizing over the fact that hed gotten to within 300 feet of the summit and had to turn
aroundDoug was going to keep climbing toward the top as long as he was still able to
breathe. Hansen already had a prior investment in the Everest climb (his unsuccessful
attempt) and therefore was even more driven to reach the summit this time; however, his
overconfidence and his idea of sunk costs drove him against his better judgment to
continue the climb. Furthermore, Hansen felt that he had already failed once, and had
gotten this far on his second attempt, that he should continue through his health problems
to the top.
Both Dr. Weathers and Hansen exemplify overconfidence as a decision-making bias.
Their actions show that their perception of their abilities is higher than reality, and the
strong link to sunk costs underscores the fallacy that ultimately led to the Mt. Everest
tragedy.