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SMBC

Trade Finance
Almanac
2013
Published by TRADE FINANCE

TRADE FINANCE

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CONTENTS

The SMBC Trade Finance Almanac 2013


INTRODUCTION

Editor's note Oliver OConnell, Editor,


Trade Finance Magazine
Foreword Hiroshi Minoura, Deputy
President, Head of International
Banking Unit, SMBC
5
The Berne Union and the Financial
Crisis Peter Jones, Secretary
General of the Berne Union
7
ICC: The Future of Trade Finance
Thierry Senechal, Senior Policy
Manager, International Chamber of
Commerce
12
IFC: Emerging Markets Still in Need of
Support
17
Dealogic 2012 Year-End Trade Loan
Tables
25
SWIFT trade finance data and
commentary 2012
33
Euromoney Country Risk
Methodology and Tier Guide
45

ASIA PACIFIC

47

SMBC: Regional View of Trade Finance


in the Asian Market Hiromitsu
Otsu, Joint General Manager,
Head of Asia, GTFD
48
Japan
Seeking Growth Overseas Kaoru
Furuya, Joint General Manager,
Global Head of Financial
Institutions Trade Finance, GTFD 50
Best Trade Bank in Japan 2012
53
Country profile: Japan
54
Agency contact details
55
China & North Asia
How can ECAs help to reduce the
volatility of the cyclical shipping
market? Xu Guang, Sinosure 57
Country profiles
61
China
Hong Kong
Mongolia
South Korea
Taiwan
Agency contact details
66
South & SE Asia
Facilitating Asian Trade in 2013 Janet
Hyde, Victoria Tyo & Edward Faber,
Asian Development Bank
70

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Country profiles
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
Agency contact details

74

85

Australasia
Australasia: An EFIC perspective
Dougal Crawford, Senior
Economist, EFIC
89
The New Zealand Exporting
Environment Chris Chapman,
Rebecca Holleman & Tim
Robertson, NZECO
92
Country profiles
95
Australia
New Zealand
Agency contact details
97

EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST,


AND AFRICA

99

SMBC: Commodity Finance EMEA


Strong demand from a buoyant
market John Turnbull, Joint
General Manager, Global Head of
Structured Trade & Commodity
Finance, GTFD
100
Europe & the CIS
Trade Finance in Eastern Europe and
the CIS: A review of 2012 and
forecast for 2013 Rudolf Putz,
Head Trade Facilitation
Programme, EBRD
103
The European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development:
a long term capital partner in an
uncertain environment Lorenz
Jorgensen, Director, Head of Loan
Syndications, EBRD
106
Country profiles
111
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic

CONTENTS
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Agency contact details

AMERICAS

134

Middle East & North Africa


Growth in SWIFTs business in the
Middle East outperforms global
growth Sibos 2013 Dubai 147
Country profiles
150
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Libya
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Agency contact details
164
Sub-Saharan Africa
African trade and trade finance in the
decade of the 2010s A new
frontier emerges
Dr B. O. Oramah, Executive Vice
President, Business Development
and Corporate Banking, African
Export-Import Bank
169
Country profiles
175
Angola
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
South Africa
Agency contact details
181

183

SMBC: Export & Agency Finance Case


Study Etileno XXI Project Mini
Roy, Director, Head of Export &
Agency Finance and Americas
Structured Trade & Commodity
Finance, GTFD
184
North America
USA: Exports hit record levels
187
Outlook 2013: Let it rise Peter Hall,
Vice President and Chief
Economist, EDC
190
The new US-Asia trade paradigm: The
prospects and challenges of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations in 2013 P. Welles Orr, Senior
International Trade Advisor at Miller
& Chevalier Chartered.
192
Country profiles
195
Canada
United States
Agency contact details
197
Latin America
Brazils Economic Performance a
review Filipe Lage de Sousa,
Researcher, and Luis Eduardo
Miranda Cruz, Economist,
BNDES
200
Internationalisation as central to IDB
strategy: Promoting SME export
and investment growth in Latin
America and the Caribbean
Fabrizio Opertti and Gema
Sacristan at the Inter-American
Development Bank
205
Country profiles
209
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Mexico
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Agency contact details
223

REFERENCE
SMBC Trade Finance Overview
SMBC Global Directory
2012 Event Gallery
Trade Finance Calendar of
Industry Events 2013
IMF World Economic Growth
Projections

227
227
235
250
253
256

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EDITORS NOTE

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Editor
Oliver OConnell
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Editors note
Welcome to the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac 2013,
sponsored by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporations
Global Trade Finance Department and produced by Trade
Finance Magazine.
Trade finance has retained its elevated status in the world of
banking, and in the policy thinking of many governments
looking to boost economic growth.
In this years almanac we have partnered with Euromoney
Country Risk (ECR), to produce a snapshot of country
risk based on the views of over 400 expert economists
gathered from the Euromoney Country Risk Survey. Live
data can be found at www.euromoneycountryrisk.com, and
an explanation of the methodology and sovereign ratings
can be found in the first section of the almanac. ECR data is
supplemented here by country data from the IMF and a
short piece of commentary.
I hope you enjoy this trip around a selection of the worlds
key trading economies, and the editorial contributions of a
number of the most important industry groups,
multilaterals, development banks and official agencies in the
trade finance space.Thank you to the Berne Union,
SWIFT, IFC, ICC, Sinosure, ADB, EFIC, NZECO, EBRD,
Afreximbank, EDC, Miller & Chevalier, BNDES, and IDB
for the time and effort spent preparing articles.
A special thank you also to the team at SMBCs Global
Trade Finance Department for their editorial and
organisational input namely Hiroshi Minoura, Eli
Hassine,Toshio Ishizuka, Mini Roy, Hiromitsu Otsu, Kaoru
Furuya, John Turnbull, Donar Tejada, Daniel Minzer,
Sooyeon Lee, and Noah Herman.
We hope that you find the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac
2013 an interesting and useful tool, and remember that this
is just a sample of what is on offer in the pages of Trade
Finance Magazine each month, and daily at
www.tradefinancemagazine.com.
Oliver OConnell
Editor
Trade Finance Magazine
Euromoney Institutional Investor plc, 2013. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means without prior written permission of the publisher. Although Euromoney Institutional Investor plc has made every effort to
ensure the accuracy of this publication, neither it nor the sponsors can accept any legal responsibility whatsoever for consequences
that may arise from errors or omissions. Neither Euromoney Institutional Investor nor the sponsors can be held responsible for
investment decisions arising from the data and opinions expressed within this publication.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

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FOREWORD

Foreword
By Hiroshi Minoura, Deputy President, Head of International Banking Unit, SMBC
Following the developments of Global Banking and Trade Finance
in 2012, we look to 2013 and beyond with renewed optimism, as
global financial markets in large part continue to recover. In line
with the above, SMBCs International Division is being driven by a
key concept: Conservatively Aggressive. Among other things, this
phrase implies that SMBC is focusing on the quality of transactions
in order to continue our involvement in innovative and market
leading mandates across the globe.
Hiroshi Minoura
Deputy President,
Head of International
Banking Unit, SMBC

Throughout 2012, SMBC achieved positive customer satisfaction,


built largely on our customers continuing demand for quality
financial services. This demand is what strongly encourages us to
continue to deliver optimal financial solutions that meet our
customers needs and exceed their expectations.

In particular, Trade Finance has been a key driver for our growth. Alongside the
products offered by our Global Trade Finance Department including Export and
Agency Finance, Commodity Finance, Supply Chain Finance and Trade Finance for
Financial Institutions, we are eager to connect exporters with importers and suppliers
with buyers in order to augmen their vital trade flows.
Global Trade Finance continues its path of growth (world merchandise trade volume as
of April 2012 was estimated at US$18 trillion1) as new countries, particularly those in
expanding markets, have become active participants in the global supply chain. South
and Southeast Asia is gradually becoming an important supplier of goods, while China
is simultaneously demonstrating signs of a more technologically driven economy. The
expansion of our supplier base has become an important driver of business growth for
Supply Chain Finance. In addition, the expanding markets of Latin America and Africa
are providing many interesting opportunities for key infrastructure/development
investments that require long term financing with Official Export Credit Agencies.
These long term investments will form the cornerstone of a very substantial amount of
future economic growth and development for the world.
The 2013 issue of the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac includes
updated country risk profiles for more than 70 countries in
addition to articles regarding our product focus across the
regions in which SMBC has an active presence.
We wish to thank both Trade Finance Magazine and
Euromoney Country Risk, for their contribution to the
completion of this 2013 SMBC Trade Finance Almanac.
Eli Hassine

Toshio Ishizuka

Co-Heads of Global Trade Finance, SMBC

Welcome to the 2013 SMBC Trade Finance Almanac, we


wish you good business and good fortune with your
global trades.

NOTE
1:World Trade Organization Press/659, April 2012

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Forthcoming 2013 events


The perfect mix of market insight and networking
TRADE FINANCE EVENTS

PROJECT FINANCE EVENTS

February 28th & March 1st 2013

March 5th & 6th 2013

15th Annual Structured Trade and Export


Finance in the Americas Conference

7th Annual Latin American Energy &


Infrastructure Finance Forum

The Biltmore at Coral Gables, Miami

Biltmore Hotel at Coral Gables, Miami

April 18th & 19th 2013

6th Annual Structured Trade and Export


Finance in Russia/CIS Conference
Kempinski, Moscow

March 27th & 28th 2013

6th Annual Turkey Energy and


Infrastructure Finance Conference
The Mvenpick, Istanbul

June 5th & 6th 2013

10th Annual Global Commodities Finance


Conference
President Wilson, Geneva

April 30th & May 1st

June 10th & 11th 2013

The Hyatt Regency, Houston, Texas

North America Midstream Infrastructure


Finance Forum

4th Annual Global Export Finance


Washington Conference
St Regis, Washington
September 11th & 12th 2013
16th & 17th September 2013

The 8th Annual North American Energy and


Infrastructure Finance Conference

7th Annual Trade and Commodity Finance


in Brazil Conference

Westin, New York

Grand Hyatt, Sao Paulo


23rd & 24th September 2013

14th Annual Global Export Finance


Conference
Hotel Arts, Barcelona
October 2013

Export Finance Germany Conference


Raddisson Blu, Berlin

For more information please visit www.euromoneyseminars.com or call our


events team on +44(0) 20 7779 7222 or email tbarnes@euromoneyplc.com

BERNE UNION AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

The Berne Union and the financial crisis


The global crisis has sharply increased the awareness of the value of credit insurance as a risk
mitigation tool in cross-border trade, leading to increased demand for the product, highlights
Peter Jones, Secretary-General of the Berne Union.

Since its inception in 1934 by private and state export credit


insurers from France, Italy, Spain and the UK, the International
Union of Credit & Investment Insurers (Berne Union) has gone on
to support tens of trillions of dollars worth of global trade, through
the insurance of trade credit and overseas investment. Its
importance to the global economy is such its members now
support roughly 10% of worlds international trade.
Peter Jones
Secretary-General of
the Berne Union

Arguably the Unions finest moments came in 2009, as the full


unfolding of the global financial crisis and economic downturn
kicked into global trade flows, reducing these by a massive 23%,
from $15.2 trillion down to $11.7 trillion, according to data provided by the UN
Statistics Division.
Yet, in an unprecedented global situation and highly volatile risk environment where
world exports collapsed by nearly a quarter in the wake of the Lehman Brothers
shock, insured credit and investment business facilitated by Union members reduced
only less than 10%, from $1.51 trillion in 2008 to $1.3 trillion, Union data reveals.
Spurred on by a G20 message in April 2009 that support behind trade finance would
be an important element in reviving the global economy, this proved to be a crucial
factor in stemming the decline of trade flows, demonstrating that trade credit
insurance was relatively stable during the worst of the crisis.
Rather than stepping back amid the uncertainty, Berne Union members found a
number of ways to launch new initiatives and to pursue and expand their mandates,
while absorbing and paying out claims related to the tune of $5.4 billion in 2009,
followed by $3.5 billion in 2010 and $4.0 billion in 2011, testifying to the robustness
of the members risk management models. No insurer within the Union defaulted, and
claims were paid out appropriately and promptly.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

BERNE UNION AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS


Unlocking liquidity was the key
While credit insurance is not a source of liquidity in itself, Berne Union member
activity in 2009 helped to unlock bank financing during the crisis and was able to
ensure that liquidity was available for both short-term (ST) and medium- and longterm (MLT) export finance. A particularly welcome aspect of the underwriting
resilience that emerged from the crisis was the level record levels of MLT export
insurance business notched up by members. From the second quarter of 2009, while
private market players as a group continued to reduce their credit limits, official export
credit agencies (ECAs) stepped into this breach by increasing their limits, spurred by
the initiatives taken by governments in line with the call of the G20, which asked their
ECAs to fill a perceived gap in export credit insurance supply by supporting national
exports and national interests.
MLT volumes underwritten by Berne Union members grew by 25% in 2009, almost
double the compound annual growth rate of 13.7% from 2005 to 2008, to reach a full
year total of $191 billion, the highest level ever recorded. The total MLT exposure on
the books of ECAs at the end of 2009 stood at a record $511bn, 14% higher than in
2008.
ECAs also showed their crucial role in complementing the private market in the ST
arena, where the temporary ruling by the EU Commission that ECAs from European
Union (EU) countries were allowed to be active in so-called marketable risk business
permitted another illustration of their ability to offer risk capacity during difficult
times.
During the crisis, the activity of EU ECAs in this field increased by around 50% as a
group and more for some individual agencies, according to Berne Union statistics.
Their share of the ST business nevertheless remained small, at less than 2% of the
overall volume, in line with their mandate to step into usual private market territory in
difficult times.

Paying claims and maintaining operations


The second and no less important aspect of 2009 was the jump in claims, and the
manner in which this was accommodated and dealt with alongside the increasing
exposure activity required to support cross-border trade and investment. For the
Unions ST insurers, this pushed the loss ratio claims paid in relation to premium
income for the year to a very steep 88%. Although this resulted in operational losses,
these insurers were to some extent cushioned by a series of very beneficial years, with
low loss ratios, experienced before the crisis.
Meanwhile claims paid by Union member ECAs to customers in 2009 nearly tripled
compared to the previous year to reach $3.1 billion, yielding a loss ratio of 66%,

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

BERNE UNION AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS


compared to 29% and 35% in 2008 and 2007. However high loss ratios had also
prevailed in 2006 and 2005, and for more than a decade from the early 80s to the mid90s, providing a bedrock of valuable claims experience. ECAs have historically tended
to maintain themselves through these tougher spells by recovering the largest part of
the claims they have paid, making their businesses self-sustaining in the long run.

Resurgence in global insurance activity


As the world pulled away from the very worst perils of the financial crisis, demand for
the risk mitigation products provided by the members of the Berne Union was
resurgent in tandem, rising by 10% and then 17% to $1.5 billion and a record $1.8
billion in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
Members have reported a more benign environment for their trade and investment
insurance business, via a reduced level of claims and record new business growth in
some areas in particular from ECA insurance coverage that has become a condition
of lending without which banks have not been able to finance MLT transactions, as
their capital adequacy concerns and funding challenges have increased.
2011 marked a year of good results for most of the Unions 49 private and state-backed
members as the industry pulled away from the global crisis of 2008/2009. Members
ST and MLT business recorded respective growths of 19% and 10%, against a

Insured trade and investment World exports

Source: Source world exports: United Nations Statistics Division

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

BERNE UNION AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Four years after the crisis, our


organisation is now looking to
further broaden its scope as the
leading international association
for the export credit and
investment insurance industry,
both by reaching out to a wider
audience and adding value for
existing members.

background
where
world
international trade grew by 20%,
according to UN statistics. The ST
insurance capacity provided by
members, as measured by the
amount of credit limits extended to
exporters at a given point in time,
stood at more than $880 billion at
the end of 2011, similar to precrisis levels. Total MLT transactions
under cover in the books of Berne
Union members at the end of 2011
amounted to $583 billion, the
highest level ever.

Yet there was no let up in risk


volatility,
as
long-established
regimes fell in the Middle East and
North Africa and sovereign debt
concerns swelled over the US and a
number of European countries. Although both trade credit and political risk insurance
claims peaked in 2009, there was a small but unwelcome resurgence of claims in 2011,
totalling $4.0 billion, as the deteriorating macroeconomic position of many countries
generated a preponderance of mainly commercial risk claims.
Demand for the risk mitigation products provided by the members of the Berne
Union has continued at a strong level during 2012, driven in many cases by liquidity
shortages among banks, particularly financial institutions based in the Eurozone, and
members are confident to support at least the same volumes of export trade and
investment as last year. A major positive is that credit insurance capacity for short-term

ATI becomes 50th Union member


The Berne Union added the African Trade Insurance (ATI) agency as its 50th
member at its 2012 annual meeting in Stockholm. The ATI was officially
confirmed into observer status at the Union, as the preliminary phase to full
membership. Only two fellow African institutions that are full members: the South
African-based Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation of Africa and the Export
Credit Insurance Corporation of South Africa. ATI is a multilateral trade and
investment insurance institution headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, and is owned by
a number of African member countries, as well as public and private sector
organisations, including two members of the Berne Union.

10

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

BERNE UNION AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS


insurance among the Unions public and private sector members remains steady, at just
over $900 billion. There do not appear to be any capacity constraints, either for the
public MLT insurers or the private sector players.

New horizons for the Union


Four years after the crisis, our organisation is now looking to further broaden its scope
as the leading international association for the export credit and investment insurance
industry, both by reaching out to a wider audience and adding value for existing
members. This includes a more cohesive and in-depth communication within the
Union, improving the accessibility, quality and breadth of the information on the
Internet for members, and a greater exploration of education and training functions.
Another key intention is to make the Union relevant to a wider audience, including
international financial institutions and other official bodies, building on well
established links with other organisations that play important roles in world trade
including the ICC, IMF, OECD, World Bank, WTO and regional development banks.
We are also working to become more familiar to more exporters, governments and
media outlets.
But most importantly, with a possible return of very difficult times, and serious
concerns about the ability of banks to fund trade and investment given the proposed
regulatory changes and ongoing funding challenges, our members remain as
committed as ever to support global trade and investment in a volatile economic
environment.

Peter Jones was appointed Berne Union Secretary General in May 2012. Previously he was Chief
Executive Officer of the African Trade Insurance Agency and held senior positions at the Multilateral
Investment Guarantee Agency and Export Development Canada, following a successful banking
career.
The Berne Union is the leading association for export credit and investment insurance worldwide,
working for cooperation and stability in cross-border trade and investment, providing a forum for
professional exchange among its members.
Berne Union
27-29 Cursitor Street
London EC4A 1LT
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1110
Fax: +44 (0)20 7430 0375
E-mail bu-sec@berneunion.org

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

11

ICC THE FUTURE OF TRADE FINANCE

The future of trade finance poised


between peril and promise
By Thierry Snchal
Senior Policy Manager, International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)

A hallowed industry

Thierry Snchal
Senior Policy Manager,
International Chamber
of Commerce (ICC)

Long considered a very respectable undertaking, trade finance has


been a core offering in a banking services portfolio to corporate
and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The LCs industry
regulated by standards dates back some 80 years, when the
International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) first started working
with letters of credit. (LCs) Intermediation provides real-time risk
mitigation, improves liquidity and cash flow of the trading parties,
and gives localized SMEs much-needed access to hard currency to
finance imports.

With very profitable business lines, trade finance is the oil that
powers the engine of global economic growth. This is an invaluable
contribution to the market economy. As the Global Head of Trade Finance from a
major bank recently said, trade finance has always had a certain elevated status in the
banking world and it has not been a high-risk transaction. Trade finance is a business
built on real underlying transactions by companies that make real goods that are
moved from one place to another, so real people can consume them in the real world.
Compared with other financial markets, trade finance deals mainly in short-term
maturities; the security is held in the underlying goods moved in the transaction. The
Trade Register published by the ICC confirmed anecdotally that trade finance is a safe
business. The soon-to-be-released ICC report, Global Risks Trade Finance 2013, will
show that out of nearly 8.1 million short-term trade finance transactions from 2008 to
2011, fewer than 1,800 defaulted. This equates to a default rate of a mere ~0.02% on a
transaction basis. What is more, the likelihood of default is consistently low across all
products, with average transaction default rate of 0.035% across the entire product
suite. The ICC report furnishes compelling evidence that trade finance is still a low
risk banking activity.

12

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

ICC THE FUTURE OF TRADE FINANCE


Despite these recent encouraging signs that the trade finance industry continues to
uphold its long track record of robustness and stability, this stellar image is imperiled
going forward. For trade finance faces headwinds that may completely upend the
global landscape in which it operates in the next five years. We review the most
important of them here.

A welter of regulations
In the wake of the financial crisis, the number of regulations is rising seemingly
exponentially. While many regulatory changes have already been implemented or
proposed, the regulatory future remains unclear. For example, harmonization of Basel 3
principles is a major problem for policy makers and regulators, because different
countries are adopting different standards. Over the next several years, the regulatory
burden may not only worsen, regulations may become more difficult to put into action,
and thus lose their effectiveness. Some banking executives and policymakers think the
new Basel 3 framework will seriously damage the provision of trade finance services.
Concerns are growing that (i) because of the higher capital requirements for trade
finance, banks will move away from the trade finance market, into products that generate
greater returns; (ii) inconsistencies in the implementation of the regulatory regime across
countries will create competitive arbitrage opportunities for some financial institutions
and may affect the domiciling of banks; and (iii) by not treating trade finance as a lowrisk asset class, the new Basel capital framework may unduly raise trade finance costs.

Global economic shifts and a two-speed financial system.


Global market conditions amid the Great Recession have been poor, and outlooks for
the global economy are mixed. Optimists cite recent data suggesting global trade has
bottomed out and is starting to recover. The Economist Intelligence Unit recently
estimated (February 2013) that global trade expanded by 2.9% in 2012, less than half
the rate of the previous year, but will rebound to 4.2% growth in 2013. However,
pessimists abound. Figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) showed merchandise trade slowed in most major economies in
the second quarter of 2012, contracted in Europe, and also fell in India, Russia, and
South Africa. By contrast, economic opportunity is expanding in the Eastern and the
Southern parts of the globe, according to a recent ICC survey, Rethinking Trade and
Finance 2012. Emerging markets will likely account for a far larger share of global
economic activity. This will pose challenges and opportunities for cross-border banks
traditionally based in developed countries. ICC Surveys on trade finance and on
growth markets including China, India, and Brazil, show these countries will account
for a larger share of global economic activity. According to the Economist Intelligence
Unit experts, some two-thirds of world economic growth will come from emerging
markets through 2015. A shift in economic power will probably lead the trade finance
industry to reassess its strategies for many emerging markets. As a result, competition
will intensify and banks will need to invest more in cutting-edge information
technology as they seek to reduce costs by keeping tabs on a lengthening global supply
chain amid these global economic shifts.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

13

ICC THE FUTURE OF TRADE FINANCE


Sovereign debt and deleveraging
The trade finance industry is undergoing major change amid the European sovereign
debt crisis. Ballooning government debt is a serious issue in many developed countries.
In many cases, governments have shouldered private sector liabilities, including those of
the banking sector. Some European banks have been under pressure to deleverage, and
have sold assets, including trade finance assets, and raised capital, to strengthen their
balance sheets and regain investor confidence. A recent study by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), Global Financial Stability Report 2012, showed that in a sample
of 58 EU banks, 24 banks, including some of the largest global banks in trade finance,
will sell about USD2 trillion in assets from 2011 to 2013. The IMF estimated that
European banks could shrink their balance sheets by USD2.8 trillion by the end of
2013, or in the worst case scenario by USD4.5 trillion. Meanwhile, there are indications
that banks in the United States and Asia are stepping into the void, and are expanding
their trade finance activities.

Growth hinges on available US dollar funds


Most settlements for trade transactions are made in US dollars, so easy access to dollar
funding and surplus dollar liquidity are key to gain market share in lending. While the
market share of European banks may be constrained by leverage, the market share
growth of Asian banks may be constrained by their limited access to US dollar funding.
As a result, US banks and UK Asian banks are likely to benefit the most from increasing
trade finance portfolios, due to easy access to US dollar funding by US banks, and
excess US dollar liquidity by UK Asian banks, lower leverage and stronger capital ratios.

Deleveraging in Europe in USD billions, 2010-2012

Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

14

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

ICC THE FUTURE OF TRADE FINANCE


Competition heats up
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are new players in trade finance. Four MDBs
now have comprehensive trade facilitation programs (TFPs): the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); the International Finance Corporation
(IFC); Asian Development Bank (ADB); and Inter-American Development Bank
(IDB). The African Development Bank (AfDB) also recently decided to adopt a
permanent program similar to the ADBs. These programs not only take advantage of
the extensive network of banks the MDBs have, to bridge gaps in the provision of
trade finance; they also offer a stronger commitment (HOW SO?) to emerging
markets. For instance, IFC GTFP increased the program ceiling to USD5 billion in
2013. In June 2012, IFC GTFP outstanding guarantee commitments had reached an
all-time high of USD2.9 billion. In recent years, export credit agencies (ECAs) have
also started offering short-term trade finance solutions to their clients.

The pursuit of securitization


An environment of regulatory overload and uncertainty could seriously crimp the
provision of trade finance services. Some banks may move out of high-quality trade
assets into non-banking sectors, such as hedge funds or pension funds. Now more than
ever the trade finance industry must look beyond traditional banking sources of trade
finance, and attract institutional investors and other kinds of investors. This would
broaden the investor base and inject liquidity into a capital-constrained trade finance
market. Many banks may decide to securitize their trade assets, and go into higherrisk, unregulated markets. But first they need to develop consistent structures and
instruments, within an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, to facilitate more
participation in trade finance by institutional investors and other investors. One

Currency (% breakdown by value for letters


of credit)

Source: JPM

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Currency (% breakdown by number of messages


for letters of credit)

Source: JPM

15

ICC THE FUTURE OF TRADE FINANCE


scenario assumes the securitization market will grow for trade finance assets, thus
potentially defeating the purpose of Basel 3 regulations. A second scenario assumes the
securitization market will exist but will be limited in scope, to allow global banks to
obtain greater liquidity temporarily.
We predict the future of trade finance may look something like this:
1.

Regulation will become more burdensome, so profit margins will be lower than
before the financial crisis.

2.

A two-speed economic and financial system, with developed markets in slow


gear and developing markets in higher gear. Emerging markets make up a much
bigger share of global economic activity.

3.

Deleveraging and US dollar liquidity issues will continue to disrupt the


traditional trade finance model. The economy will continue to be more volatile
and unpredictable than before the financial crisis.

4.

New entrants in the trade finance market will act as a double-edged sword.Trade
facilitation programs operated by MDBs will provide much needed liquidity.
However, growth of these programs will heighten competition for some services,
such as the provision of guarantees, that historically have been the exclusive
purview of commercial banks. Eventually, new partnerships between MDBs and
commercial banks will be forged to service some markets.

5.

Securization will provide opportunities for the trade finance industry to look
beyond traditional bank sources of trade finance.

These are some of the major trends that will shape the market for trade finance. How
they evolve over time will determine the future of the industry. Despite these
challenges, the future is not necessarily bleak. Global banks may find ways to thrive in a
more complex world. But in the near future, global trade finance will be structured
and operate differently than it did just a few years ago. Industry leaders will have to be
more creative and innovative to control costs and raise profits and returns in a fastmorphing world.To serve customers better, banks will have to understand them better.
A rosy outlook is not off the cards. A major challenge for the industry is the lack of
data timely enough and detailed enough to better understand and closely monitor
trade finance metrics. ICC is committed to bridging this information gap through its
market intelligence reporting. In the quest for greater efficiency by the industry, ICC is
the right business partner. To that end, ICC will release its next report, Rethinking
Trade & Finance 2013 when the ICC Banking Commission meets in Lisbon, 16 to18
April 2013. The report contains data on international trade flows for 2012 and takes a
forward look at what trade finance markets will look like from now until 2018.

16

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

WORLD BANK GROUP

Despite improving outlook, emerging


markets still in need of trade support
Exploring the ways that IFC assists its bank partners and their clients operating in
emerging markets by addressing financing needs at all stages of the value chain.
Contributed by the Global Trade and Supply Chain Solutions team at IFC

Mauritania is one of the worlds


poorest countries. Over 30% of the
3.5 million people in this country
on the Atlantic coast of North
Africa are unemployed. One out of
every two people lives in poverty.

As a development finance
institution, IFC was in a unique
position to bring together private oil
marketing companies, state-owned
enterprises, the government, an
international trading company and a
European bank to efficiently serve
all of the countrys energy needs
under a well-organized and
transparent tender process.

Yet Mauritania represents one of


Africas success stories in the
aftermath of the global financial
crisis. It has achieved economic
growth of 5% in recent years
despite
persistently
higher
commodities prices and a severe
drought two years ago. A strong
recovery since 2009 has been built
on the back of policies that have
helped re-establish macroeconomic
stability. Only by maintaining its
current growth course can the
Mauritanian government hope to create jobs to put its people to work and expand
opportunities to raise its citizens out of poverty.

Like many of its neighbours, Mauritania grapples with a severe trade imbalance and
relies on imports to provide much-needed food and fuel to its people. Now the
country requires massive additional agricultural resources to feed a hungry population
and energy resources to feed the machinery and vehicles that provide essential services
to the industries upon which the economic growth has been founded.
This reliance on goods from overseas leaves Mauritania at the whim of shifts in the

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

17

WORLD BANK GROUP


global market, with even slight changes in price levels and financing availability having
acute effects. Amid low investor appetite, high risk perceptions, and even higher
financing costs, much of the countrys recent progress stands to be lost.
These conditions led IFC to structure and finance a deal to support energy
commodity trade flows to Mauritania. As a development finance institution, IFC was
in a unique position to bring together private oil marketing companies, state-owned
enterprises, the government, an international trading company and a European bank
to efficiently serve all of the countrys energy needs under a well-organized and
transparent tender process.
The two-year, $1.5 billion facility covers the countrys entire energy needs and
protects against the risk of supply disruptions and price spikes that could hurt stability
and growth.
IFCs risk participation was critical to the success of the deal, without which the
successful syndication and mobilisation of partners would have been challenging,
which could have impacted the import of fuel and its distribution across Mauritania,
says Yasmin Saadat, head of structured trade finance at IFC. Poor market conditions in
Europe have made financing from commercial banks traditionally involved in crossborder trade finance toward frontier markets less available.
In frontier regions of the world, the story of Mauritania is one that is more common
than not. In the current global environment, emerging markets in all regions have
significantly less access to liquidity and have to look for funding support from entities
like IFC.
Though the outlook for emerging market lending improved in the second half of
2012 and financial markets show early signs of rebound, the recovery is fragile: credit
conditions remain tight, access to finance continues to be below pre-crisis levels, and
nonperforming loans are on the rise.
Traditionally, emerging markets have counted on European banks for the lions share
of their cross-border financings. But European bank lending to these regions remains
down significantly from its peak in mid-2011, with emerging Europe and Africa
seeing the most declines. As banks assess their geographically dispersed operations,
entire programs and countries, particularly emerging markets, are on the chopping
block.
Trade finance in particular remains one of the most vulnerable asset classes.While trade
finance departments at banks are competing internally for each units newly scarce
capital, Basel III increases the required capital allocation for trade finance despite its
near-zero loss history. The International Monetary Fund has identified trade finance as
one of the specific asset classes that banks are scaling back, with smaller trade finance
lines in non-core countries at greatest risk.

18

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

WORLD BANK GROUP


As the crisis unfolded, IFCs work initially strove to keep European banks involved in
trade and commodity finance. As European banks capacity and appetite continues to
wane, Asian, American and emerging market banks are growing their presence in the
space. IFC stands ready to help these banks develop correspondent banking
relationships, establish counterparty limits, and implement know-your-customer
protocols in order to crowd in more investment, especially into the poorest countries
that face the largest gaps.
IFC is in a unique position to assist its bank partners and their clients operating in
emerging markets by addressing financing needs at all stages of the value chain. IFCs
suite of programs to address gaps in the availability of working capital now includes the
Global Trade Finance Programme,
the Global Warehouse Finance
Programme, Global Trade Supplier
Finance programme, distributor
finance, structured trade finance,
systemic liquidity solutions, the
Global Trade Liquidity Programme,
and the Critical Commodities
Finance Programme.

While trade finance departments


at banks are competing internally
for each units newly scarce
capital, Basel III increases the
required capital allocation for
trade finance despite its near-zero
loss history.

In January, IFC doubled the


capacity Critical Commodities
Finance Programme (CCFP) and
plans to sign new facilities in the
coming months with banks in
Europe and Asia. Facilities with
Societe Generale, Rabobank and
ING have helped to drive financing for agricultural trade flows and refined energy
imports into Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Through the CCFP, IFC continues to demonstrate its commitment to support global
trade with innovative programs that engage our bank partners to sustain and extend
the availability of financing for critical commodities as they move through the value
chains in emerging markets, says Georgina Baker, director of global trade and supply
chain solutions at IFC.
This initiative reflects IFCs leadership role in private sector development with
proven, rapid, flexible and disciplined programs that underscore our countercyclical
role during financial crises, as well as our contributions to global food security and
poverty reduction, she adds.
IFC also sees tremendous growth potential in the Global Trade Supplier Finance
programme and the Global Warehouse Finance Programme, two newer initiatives that

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

19

WORLD BANK GROUP


have expanded rapidly amid market demand. Global trade banks benefit from the
continued expansion of international supply chains, in which their large clients are key
players.This growth is driven, as it has been in the past, by the growing import content
of exports in all parts of the world.
Last year, IFC hosted its first Warehouse Receipts Conference in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia, a country in which extensive technical assistance was provided to help
launch the first commodities
exchange in East Africa. That
exchange has been so successful
that IFC recently invested to
support the development of similar
exchanges in other markets across
the region.

IFC and its multilateral partners


will continue to play an important
role leveraging trade finance,
especially in some of the worlds
poorest countries.

The bread-and-butter Global Trade


Finance Programme, which has
provided over $21 billion in
guarantees over its eight-year
history, now includes over 500
banks. The additions of issuing
banks in Laos and Suriname have
expanded the program to over 95
countries. Efforts to offer longer tenors and support more climate-change goods under
the programme are underway.
IFC couples its program with training opportunities and support to emerging market
banks, especially in markets where trade finance is not yet well-established, to expand
their knowhow and improve their operational capacity when it comes to offering
trade banking products to their clients.
Only a third of 60 poorest countries in the world benefit regularly from trade finance
activities. IFC and its multilateral partners will continue to play an important role
leveraging trade finance, especially in some of the worlds poorest countries. Whether
its Laos in Asia, Suriname in Latin America, Mauritania in Africa, or any emerging
market in between, IFCs innovative risk-mitigation programs offer opportunities for
banks to expand their footprint and improve their client service all while
contributing to global poverty reduction.

20

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

WORLD BANK GROUP

IFC
IFC Headquarters USA
International Finance Corporation
2121 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
USA
Switchboard: 202.473.1000
www.ifc.org

Business Development
Global Banks
Danny Ip, Principal Business Development
Officer
Tel: +852 2509 8534
Email: KMIp@ifc.org
Zuberoa Mainz, Business Development
Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 5573
Email: ZMainz@ifc.org

Management Team
Georgina Baker, Director, Global Trade &
Supply Chain Solutions
Tel: +1 202 473 3175
Email: GBaker@ifc.org

Michael Kurdyla, Business Development


Associate
Tel: +1 202 458 0033
Email: MKurdyla@ifc.org

Bonnie Galat, Global Head, Business


Development, Global Banks
Tel: +33 1 4069 3173
Email: BGalat@ifc.org

Sub-Saharan Africa
Gboyega Songonuga, Regional Head
Tel: +27 11 731 3133
Email: GSongonuga@ifc.org

H. Scott Stevenson, Senior Program


Manager, GTFP & Trade Advisory
Tel: +90 212 385 2573
Email: SStevenson@ifc.org

Olivier Buyoya, Senior Trade Finance


Officer
Tel: +27 11 731 3025
Email: OBuyoya@ifc.org

Sabrina Borlini, Global Manager, Business


Development
Tel: +1 202 458 4115
Email: SBorlini@ifc.org

Marcelle Ayo, Senior Trade Finance Officer


Tel: +27 11 731 3000
Email: MAyo@ifc.org

Hyung Ahn, Global Manager,Trade


Products
Tel: +1 202 458 9288
Email: HAhn@ifc.org
Bilge Ozisik, Global Head,Trade
Operations
Tel: +90 212 385 2542
Email: BOzisik@ifc.org

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Benie Kouakou, Trade Finance Analyst


Tel: +27 83 780 6073
Email: BKouakou@ifc.org
Asia & the Pacific
Anurag Mishra, Regional Head
Tel: +91 77 3870 7535
Email: AMishra4@ifc.org
Lien Hoai Nguyen, Trade Finance Officer
Tel: +84 4 3934 2282 x603
Email: NLienHoai@ifc.org

21

WORLD BANK GROUP


Europe & Central Asia
Aleksey Nikiforovich, Regional Co-Head
Tel: +7 495 411 7555 x2129
Email: ANikiforovich@ifc.org
Mark Rozanski, Regional Co-Head
Tel: +1 202 473 4640
Email: MRozanski@ifc.org
Alexei Timofti, Associate Trade Finance
Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 8963
Email: ATimofti@ifc.org
Latin America & the Caribbean
Antonio Alves, Regional Head
Tel: +1 202 458 5056
Email: AAlves1@ifc.org
Jose Alberto Vivanco, Trade Finance Officer
Tel: +52 55 3098 0232
Email: JVivanco@ifc.org
Susanne Kavelaar, Trade Finance Officer
Tel: +54 11 4114 7211
Email: SKavelaar@ifc.org
Karla Lopez, Trade Finance Analyst
Tel: +1 202 458 8683
Email: KLopezflores@ifc.org
Middle East & North Africa
Shehzad Sharjeel, Regional Head
Tel: +90 212 385 2561
Email: SSharjeel1@ifc.org
Ahmed Hanaa Eldin Mohamed, Trade
Finance Officer
Tel: +20 2 2461 4275
Email: AMohamed5@ifc.org

Product Development
Trade Portfolio Solutions (GTLP &
CCFP)
Nevin Turk, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 4786
Email: NTurk@ifc.org
Inho Lee, Senior Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 458 2709
Email: ILee@ifc.org
Fang Chen, Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 0720
Email: FChen@ifc.org
Global Warehouse Finance Program
(GWFP)
Makiko Toyoda, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 0142
Email: MToyoda@ifc.org
Global Trade Supplier Finance
(GTSF)
Priyamvada Singh, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 4786
Email: PSingh3@ifc.org
Working Capital Systemic Solutions
(WCSS)
Juan Andres Mosquera, Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 458 5152
Email: JMosquera@ifc.org
Structured Trade & Commodity
Finance
Yasmin Saadat, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 473 6391
Email:YSaadat@ifc.org
Benito Zapata, Senior Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 9070
Email: BZapata@ifc.org
Lili Wang, Financial Analyst
Tel: +1 202 458 9626
Email: LWang14@ifc.org

22

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

WORLD BANK GROUP


Operations
Murat Ayik, Supervisor,Trade Operations,
Istanbul
Tel: +90 212 385 2359
Email: MAyik@ifc.org

Advisory Services
Gimhani Talwatte Seneviratne, Global
Head,Trade Advisory
Tel: +27 11 731 3005
Email: GTalwatte@ifc.org

Zeynep Ersel, Supervisor,Trade Operations,


Washington
Tel: +1 202 458 2502
Email: ZErsel@ifc.org

Claudia Sandrine Ngassa, Technical


Assistance Coordinator, Africa
Tel: +27 11 731 3210
Email: CNgassa@ifc.org

Dharmendra Deepak, Associate


Operations Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 8817
Email: DDeepak@ifc.org
Ozlem Ates, Operations Analyst
Tel: +90 212 385 3072
Email: OAtes@ifc.org
Hande Berdan, Operations Analyst
Tel: +90 212 385 2523
Email: HBerdan@ifc.org

Astou Sylla, Technical Assistance


Coordinator, Asia
Tel: +1 202 458 0134
Email: ASylla@ifc.org
Claudia Gutierrez, Technical Assistance
Coordinator, LAC
Tel: +511 611 2566
Email: CGutierrezdelgado@ifc.org

Fiona Chen, Operations Analyst


Tel: +1 202 458 2545
Email: FChen1@ifc.org
Mauricio Cifuentes, Operations Analyst
Tel: +1 202 453 4516
Email: MCifuentes@ifc.org
Sinan Onat, Operations Analyst
Tel: +90 212 385 2594
Email: SOnat@ifc.org
Arun Prakash, Operations Analyst
Tel: +1 202 473 6095
Email: APrakash@ifc.org
Li Tang, Operations Analyst
Tel: +1 202 473 7678
Email: LTang@ifc.org
Beatrix Von Heintschel, Operations
Analyst
Tel: +1 202 473 0071
Email: BVonheintschel@ifc.org

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

23

ECA NEWSLETTER
FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR GLOBAL TRADE

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DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

Trade is down but ECA volumes are up


Dealogics full year results for 2012 trade finance show volumes down 5% on 2011,
but ECA activity is rising.

Dealogics 2012 results reveals that total global trade finance volume stood at $171
billion in 2012, down 5% from $180.9 billion in 2011, but slightly ahead of 2010
volume of $170.5 billion.
Activity also fell in 2012 to 718 deals, down 36% on 2011 when 1,116 deals were
reported. Excluding sole-bank loans, trade finance volume increased to $139.1 billion
in 2012, up 3% on 2011 ($135.6 billion).
ECA financing volume reached $114 billion via 416 deals in 2012, up on the $69.7
billion raised 2011. ECA guarantees activity fell to 357 deals in 2012 from 414 in
2011. In contrast, volume recorded an upward trend, rising 9% year-on-year to $75.7
billion in 2012 from $69.2 billion in 2011.
Pre-export finance loan volume recorded the lowest yearly volume since 2004 ($8.5
billion) with $11.7 billion via 36 deals in 2012.

Readers are reminded that the tables on the following pages are compiled by Dealogic and not
Trade Finance Magazine. For full recognition of deal activity banks are kindly requested to
deal directly with Dealogic, as well as for further information on deal and league table parameters.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

25

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

League tables for the trade finance market by Dealogic


Tables below include bilateral facilities and are based on an equal apportionment basis. Signed facilities
included only.
ForfurtherinformationpleasecontactAndrewCaleroatDealogicTel:+44-20-7440-6384
Email:andrew.calero@dealogic.com

26

MLAsofAllTradeFinance(Includingsolebankloans)2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
11,821
2
HSBC
10,627
3
JPMorgan
7,026
4
Citi
6,725
5
ING
6,673
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
6,067
7
Mizuho
5,917
8
BNP Paribas
5,727
9
Deutsche Bank
5,531
10 SG Corporate & Investment Banking
4,945
Total
171,034

Deals
91
103
46
64
67
72
60
68
61
45
718

% Share
6.9
6.2
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.9
100

ArrangersofAllTradeFinance(Includingsolebankloans)2012
Pos. Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
11,958
2
HSBC
10,512
3
JPMorgan
7,142
4
Citi
6,481
5
ING
6,362
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
6,102
7
Mizuho
5,693
8
BNP Paribas
5,498
9
BBVA
4,467
10 Deutsche Bank
4,425
Total
171,034

Deals
99
108
51
71
69
78
62
71
174
66
718

% Share
7.0
6.2
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.6
2.6
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2
HSBC
3
JPMorgan
4
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
5
Mizuho
6
Citi
7
ING
8
Deutsche Bank
9
Santander
10 BNP Paribas
Total

Deals
59
74
33
56
45
36
26
32
25
39
416

% Share
8.2
7.3
5.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
3.7
3.0
2.9
2.9
100

Value $m
9,355
8,292
6,205
5,033
4,951
4,795
4,163
3,431
3,326
3,248
113,962

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

MandatedLeadArrangersofECAFinancing(ex.Aircraft&Shipping)2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
7,919
2
HSBC
5,855
3
Mizuho
4,862
4
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
4,223
5
Citi
3,543
6
Deutsche Bank
3,148
7
Santander
3,047
8
BNP Paribas
2,686
9
ING
2,635
10 SG Corporate & Investment Banking
2,153
Total
94,409

Deals
47
62
44
41
24
28
21
33
18
18
305

% Share
8.4
6.2
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.3
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofTradeFinanceLoans2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
637
2
RBS
553
3
HSBC
547
4
BNP Paribas
529
5
Standard Chartered Bank
507
6
ING
407
7
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
358
8= Rabobank
347
8= Deutsche Bank
347
10 Citi
332
Total
8,488

Deals
7
4
6
4
6
4
3
3
3
5
29

% Share
7.5
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.0
4.8
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
100

MandatedArrangersofStructuredCommodityFinance2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
724
2
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
630
3
Natixis
476
4
Deutsche Bank
413
5
BNP Paribas
360
6
ING
331
7
HSBC
311
8
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
274
9
Credit Agricole CIB
259
10 Wells Fargo Securities
240
Total
6,327

Deals
4
6
6
3
4
5
3
4
3
1
22

% Share
11.4
10.0
7.5
6.5
5.7
5.2
4.9
4.3
4.1
3.8
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofTradeFlowBusiness2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
BBVA
2,147
2
ING
1,771
3
Standard Chartered Bank
1,764
4
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
1,711
5
Natixis
1,629
6
Citi
1,600
7
HSBC
1,408
8
RBS
1,394
9
Deutsche Bank
1,342
10 BNP Paribas
1,316
Total
37,723

Deals
113
32
31
21
21
22
19
14
23
19
217

% Share
5.7
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
100

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

27

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

MandatedLeadArrangersofSupplyChainFinance2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd
719
2
Mega International Commercial Bank
569
3
Santander
544
4
BNP Paribas
414
5
Natixis
332
6
BBVA
244
7
GE Capital Markets Inc
175
8= SinoPac Securities Corp
150
8= Hua Nan Commercial Bank Ltd
150
8= First Commercial Bank Co Ltd
150
Total
4,816

Deals
3
2
3
3
1
21
1
1
1
1
41

% Share
14.9
11.8
11.3
8.6
6.9
5.1
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofEuropeanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
HSBC
1,693
2
DNB Bank ASA
986
3
Santander
902
4
Citi
800
5
ING
707
6
Credit Suisse
551
7
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
512
8
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
508
9
Mizuho
267
10 Nordea Markets
244
Total
29,661

Deals
11
9
4
7
6
3
4
7
2
3
133

% Share
7.6
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.2
1.1
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofAsiaPacific(exJapan)ECAFinancing2012
Pos. Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
3,186
2
HSBC
2,452
3
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
1,970
4
Mizuho
1,958
5
Citi
1,531
6
JPMorgan
1,446
7
Bank of China Ltd
1,206
8
ANZ
941
9
Mega International Commercial Bank
754
10 Bank of Taiwan
690
Total
37,676

Deals
25
25
30
26
9
12
6
11
13
12
142

% Share
8.5
6.5
5.2
5.2
4.1
3.8
3.2
2.5
2.0
1.8
100

ECA finance rankings by region

28

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

MandatedLeadArrangersofLATAM&CaribbeanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2,648
2
JPMorgan
2,453
3
Santander
1,762
4
Mizuho
1,192
5
HSBC
1,105
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
846
7
BBVA
729
8
Deutsche Bank
529
9
Citi
399
10 BNP Paribas
220
Total
15,513

Deals
11
8
14
7
17
8
18
5
5
2
71

% Share
17.1
15.8
11.4
7.7
7.1
5.5
4.7
3.4
2.6
1.4
100

MandatedLeadArrangersofMiddleEast&AfricanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
JPMorgan
1,564
2
BNP Paribas
1,508
3
HSBC
1,388
4
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
684
5
Citi
565
6
ING
557
7
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
428
8
Deutsche Bank
333
9
Standard Chartered Bank
279
10 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
266
Total
10,470

Deals
5
12
10
4
5
2
7
7
4
2
49

% Share
14.9
14.4
13.3
6.5
5.4
5.3
4.1
3.2
2.7
2.5
100

Deals
12
7
8
5
3
3
3
3
10
4
56

% Share
6.0
5.3
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.1
100

ECA finance rankings by selected ECA


ECABackedFinancingRankings2012EulerHermes
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
ING
2
Citi
3
HSBC
4
BayernLB
5
UniCredit
6
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
7
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
8
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
9
Deutsche Bank
10 Credit Agricole CIB
Total

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Value $m
1,595
1,389
1,213
1,159
1,085
954
940
851
835
808
26,466

29

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

ECABackedFinancingRankings2012KEXIM
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
HSBC
2
DNB Bank ASA
3
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
4= Commerzbank Group
4= ABN AMRO Bank
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
7
Mizuho
8
Credit Suisse
9
Standard Chartered Bank
10 ANZ
Total

Value $m
676
583
456
310
310
286
191
121
86
71
5,615

Deals
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
12

% Share
12.1
10.4
8.1
5.5
5.5
5.1
3.4
2.2
1.5
1.3
100

ECABackedFinancingRankings2012COFACE
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
HSBC
2
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
3
Credit Agricole CIB
4
Citi
5
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
6
JPMorgan
7
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
8
ANZ
9
ING
10 UniCredit
Total

Value $m
1,472
1,185
1,126
1,039
984
843
814
811
792
727
20,674

Deals
8
7
6
4
4
10
4
2
2
1
33

% Share
7.1
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.8
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.5
100

ECABackedFinancingRankings2012NEXI
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2
Mizuho
3
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
4
Citi
5
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc
6= Standard Chartered Bank
6= SG Corporate & Investment Banking
8= UniCredit
8= Shinsei Securities Co Ltd
8= National Australia Bank
Total

Value $m
2,287
1,846
1,822
919
861
792
792
727
727
727
20,578

Deals
17
12
16
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
38

% Share
11.1
9.0
8.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
100

Source: Dealogic

30

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

19-Dec-2012 Braskem Idesa SAPI

IFC, Export Development Canada , Sumitomo Mitsui


Financial Group, Banco de Comercio Exterior CA,
Inter-American Development Bank, Nafinsa, BNDES,
Santander, BBVA, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo,
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho, KfW

EIB, JBIC, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group,


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui
Trust Holdings Inc, Mizuho, DBJ, HSBC,
Lloyds Banking Group

24-Jul-2012

Agility Trains West Ltd

ANZ, Export-Import Bank of China, Export-Import Bank


of the United States - Ex-Im Bank, Westpac, HSBC,
SG Corporate & Investment Banking, Commonwealth
Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank
Export Development Canada EDC, Mizuho,
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mitsubishi UFJ
Financial Group, Lloyds Banking Group, DNB Bank ASA,
DBS, Bank of China Ltd, BBVA

23-May-2012 Australia Pacific LNG


Processing Pty Ltd

Lead banks

ANZ, Mizuho,Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group,


Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Commonwealth
Bank of Australia

Borrower

18-Dec-2012 Ichthys LNG Pty Ltd

Cedit date

Top10GlobalTradeFinanceDeals2012

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas

Industry

Project Financing
ECA Financing

Project Financing
ECA Financing

Use of
proceeds

Mexico

Chemicals

Project Financing
ECA Financing

United Kingdom Transportation Project Financing


ECA Financing

Australia

Japan

Deal
nationality

3,193

3,791

8,500

16,000

Total deal
value ($m)

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

31

32

ANZ, KEXIM, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,


Credit Suisse, HSBC, Mizuho, Standard Chartered Bank,
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

14-Feb-2012 PT Krakatau Posco

ING, KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH, Citi, Commerzbank Group,


NordLB, Santander, LBBW, DZ Bank, Deutsche Bank

ABN AMRO Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB,


ING, Natixis, Rabobank, RBS, SG Corporate & Investment
Banking, Standard Chartered Bank

Reliance Industries Ltd

24-May-2012 Mercuria Energy


Trading SA

7-May-2012

China Development Bank Corp, Shanghai Pudong


Development Bank, Bank of Communications Co Ltd

28-Feb-2012 Shanghai Shendi


Group Co Ltd

Indonesia

Switzerland

India

China

Switzerland

SG Corporate & Investment Banking, BNP Paribas,


Citi, Rabobank, Credit Suisse, DBS, Deutsche Bank, ING,
JPMorgan, Natixis, RBS, Standard Chartered Bank,
UniCredit, Credit Agricole CIB

Deal
nationality

26-Mar-2012 Vitol SA

Lead banks

Asian Development Bank, BayernLB, China Development


Uzbekistan
Bank Corp, ING, KDB, KEXIM, National Bank of Uzbekistan,
Nordea Markets, KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH, SEK,
Credit Suisse, Siemens AG

Borrower

19-May-2012 Uz-Kor Gas


Chemical LLC JV

Cedit date

Top10GlobalTradeFinanceDeals2012
Use of
proceeds

Metal & Steel

Oil & Gas

Chemicals

Leisure &
Recreation

Oil & Gas

2,050

2,063

2,579

Total deal
value ($m)

Project Financing
ECA Financing

Refinancing
General Corporate Purposes
Trade Financing

1,729

1,883

Capital Expenditures 1,994


ECA Financing

Project Financing
ECA Financing

Trade Flow

Oil & Gas


Project Financing
ECA Financing

Industry

DEALOGIC 2012 YEAR-END TRADE LOAN TABLES

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

SWIFT Trade Finance traffic: Statistics 2012 Q4


Nadine Louis, market manager, Corporates and Supply Chain, SWIFT

SWIFT Business Intelligence product: Watch


SWIFT and its customers can monitor the SWIFT trade traffic with the SWIFT
Business Intelligence product:Watch (http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence).
This includes trade messages of category 4 and category 7. SWIFT category 4
messages are flows for Documentary Collections with the exception of three littleused cash letter messages. SWIFT category 7 messages are flows for commercial and
standby letters of credit, and guarantees.There are 32 different flows in category 7.
SWIFT statistics can be considered a good indication of the overall usage trends for
the L/C product, since we assume that around 90% of the letter of credit (L/C)
transactions goes via SWIFT. Live traffic refers to messages sent over the SWIFT
network.

SWIFT trade traffic worldwide in number of messages, 2003-2012

Source: SWIFT

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

33

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

2012 Q4 highlights
Compared to Q4 of 2011, trade finance traffic volume in Q4 2012 shows a slight
decrease (-2.79%). The decrease in category 7 (-2.14%) is less important than in
category 4 (-4.81%). But looking at the MT700 only, it shows an increase of +1.74%.
On the import side (MT 700 sent), North America (+12.16%) and AP (+5.12%) show
the 2 strongest increases while Europes Eurozone (-8.3%) and the Middle East (11.84%) show the strongest decreases.
On the export side (MT 700 received), North America (+10.89%) and Africa
(+8.69%) show the 2 strongest increases while Europes Non-Eurozone (-5.29%) and
the Middle East (-9.07%) show the strongest decreases.
When comparing Q4 2012 to Q3 2012, Q4 shows a decrease (-2%) compared to
previous quarter. The decrease in category 7 (-1.51%) is less than in category 4 (3.53%), but looking at MT700 only, it shows an increase of +4.65%.
Category 7 represents 76% of trade finance traffic, while the category 4 is 24% (75%25% in 2011).

SWIFT trade traffic evolution Cat 7+4 sent (live)

Source: SWIFT

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

34

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

Import L/Cs Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011


The MT 700 only represents 15% of category 7, but it is interesting as the trend of the
sent MT 700 reflects the import L/Cs trend.
North America shows the highest increase (+12.16%) and this region sends 3% of total
MT 700. The Middle East shows the highest decrease (-11.84%) and this region sends
7% of total MT 700. Some 66% of the MT 700 are sent by from the Asia Pacific
region, and this region shows an increase (+5.12%) for import L/Cs.

Export L/Cs Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011


The MT 700 also reflects the trend of export L/Cs. North America shows the highest
increase (+10.89%) and this region receives 5% of total MT 700. The Middle East
shows the highest decrease (-9.07%) and this region receives 4% of total MT 700. 73%
of MT 700 are received by Asia Pacific, this region shows an increase (+3.14%) for
export L/Cs.

SWIFT trade traffic evolution Cat 7 sent (live)

Source: SWIFT

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

35

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

SWIFT trade traffic evolution Cat 4 sent (live)

Source: SWIFT

SWIFT trade traffic evolution MT 700 sent (live)

Source: SWIFT

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

36

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Source: SWIFT

SWIFT MT 700 sent by region

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

37

Source: SWIFT

SWIFT MT 700 received by region

SWIFT TRADE FINANCE TRAFFIC

Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence

38

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK (ECR)

Euromoney Country Risk The first live


indicator of sovereign risk sentiment
The SMBC Trade Finance Almanac 2013 features a snapshot of sovereign risk sentiment
data for many of the worlds key trading economies. The data from Euromoney Country Risk
compares Q4 2012 with Q4 2011 and includes an overall rating for each country and the
relevant sub factors.

Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) is a subscription service which provides a country


credit rating for over 180 markets worldwide. Using consensus data from Euromoneys
Country Risk Survey, ECR data is a widely used live indicator of global sovereign risk,
based on the views of over 400 expert economists. ECR data enables credit and risk
managers to make comparative judgements on the level of sovereign risk in their key
markets, on both a global and regional basis.You can find out more about the service
in an e-brochure available at www.euromoneycountryrisk.com.
The ECR database also contains data on 18 different variables of economic, financial
and political risk, which can be used on their own or in conjunction with hard data
sources as a risk measure for credit and payment risk, plus commentary and research on
key changes in ECR country ratings. The consensus data is an independent and timely
measure of sovereign risk, allowing your analysts to quantify risk free from any black
box methodology.
ECR currently provides risk monitoring services to a range of subscribing institutions,
including the following sectors:
l Financial institutions (including private sector, public sector and multilaterals): Live
monitoring of country risk in 180 markets worldwide for risk managers (including
granular & time series data across 18 risk variables, as well as country risk news and
expert analysis)
l Global corporates: Live updates on sovereign/transfer/political risk for receivables
managers, export credit, supply chain analysts and project managers.
l Asset management: Live monitoring of sovereign risk for portfolio managers,
historical data inputs for fixed income/asset allocation models and estimates of
country risk premia

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

39

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK (ECR)


About the scores
The ECR scores are scaled from 0 to 100 (100= no risk, 0= maximum risk). The
scores are not designed to correspond to any other rating systems but many users do
ask for a comparative guide, particularly to credit ratings. ECR tiers its countries in 5
Tiers. Below is the description of how countries in those tiers can be characterized
with a rough guide to an equivalent credit rating band.

ECR Tier 1 A score between 80 & 100


(can be equated to a credit rating of AA and above)
Economic Characteristics
The economy is sound, stable and well developed. None of the major indicators of economic health
show cause for alarm, even though some of these may be moving on a downward trend. The major
areas of economic infrastructure (banking sector, currency etc.) function well for the needs of the
country. Near term factors such as economic growth and unemployment are typically not a cause for
concern. Government finances are typically in a strong position and the system for financing
government is strong and well developed.
Political Characteristics
The political system is stable, although there may be impending changes in the administrative
government; these changes are not anticipated to change the nature of political governance in the
country. The role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is
transparent and understood.
Structural Characteristics
The structural components of the country are strong and typically enjoying very high standards of
physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks. Education and
healthcare levels are high and the demographics of the country are not seen as a major impediment to
economic and political stability.
Access to Capital & Credit Ratings
The sovereign and its related entities enjoy very strong access to capital that is available in the market
and private sector entities are not hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are
headquartered.
Debt Indicators
The debt indicators of these countries are typically very robust although they may be moving in a
negative direction.

ECR Tier 2- A score between 65 & 79.9


(can be equated with a credit rating of A- to AA)
Typically countries exhibit characteristics that are similar to Tier 1 but one of
Economic, Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:
Economic Characteristics
The economy is sound and stable and usually well developed, although some of the major indicators of
economic health show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are
robust but may not be functioning optimally for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as
economic growth and unemployment often show signs of weakness. Towards the lower end of this tier

40

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK (ECR)


countries may also exhibit signs of being over reliant on a narrow set of economic sectors such as
natural resource extraction, financial services, public sector etc. Government finances may be in a
materially weak state.
Political Characteristics
The political system is stable and but in some countries changes in the administration may cause
significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the country. Often in Tier 2
countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors can
lack transparency and may not be easily understood with state institutions sometimes lacking
independence. Corruption can also be a drag on the political risk score.
Structural Characteristics
The structural components of the country can show weakness in one of its major aspects. Whilst
enjoying very high standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication
networks its education and healthcare levels or demographics may be poor and vice versa. These will
feed into long term political risks and limit economic potential.
Access to Capital & Credit Ratings
For higher ranked Tier 2 countries the sovereign and its related entities enjoy good access to capital
that is available in the market. Private sector entities are not overly hindered in raising capital because
of the country where they are headquartered but they will often be limited in the amounts that they
can raise at competitive rates.
Debt Indicators
The debt indicators of these countries are typically robust in the long term but may require fiscal
adjustment in the short to medium term.

ECR Tier 3- A score between 50 & 64.9


(can be equated with a credit rating of BB+ to A-)
Typically countries exhibit characteristics that are similar to Tier 2 but one (towards
the top of the tier), two or three (towards the bottom of the tier) of Economic,
Political or Structural factors; will exhibit the below:
Economic Characteristics
The economy is typically stable though may be underdeveloped, major indicators of economic health
show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure may be deficient and
may not be functioning optimally for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic
growth and unemployment can show signs of persistent weakness. Government finances may be in a
materially weak state. This tier also often contains countries that are experiencing sharp economic
contraction.
Political Characteristics
The political system is usually stable but its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the
administrative often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/ direction of the
country. Usually in Tier 3 countries the role of government as an owner/ employer/ regulator in
relevant economic sectors lacks transparency with state institutions usually lacking independence from
the administrative government. Corruption is almost certain to be a drag on political risk.
Structural Characteristics
The structural components of the country are often weak in one of its major aspects. Whilst enjoying
very high standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks
its education and healthcare levels or demographics may be poor and vice versa. These will feed into
long term political risks and limit economic potential.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

41

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK (ECR)


Access to Capital & Credit Ratings
For higher ranked Tier3 countries the sovereign and its related entities enjoy sufficient access to capital
that is available in the market but will often have to pay significant spreads to achieve funding needs.
For lower ranked Tier 3 countries access to significant amounts of capital; may be difficult. Private
sector entities are hindered in raising capital because of the country where they are headquartered
both in terms of amounts of capital and rates that they will need to pay.
Debt Indicators
The debt indicators of these countries are typically poor and countries often utilize capital controls
that make indicators hard to equate with those of other countries.

ECR Tier 4- A score between 36 & 49.9


(can be equated with a credit rating of B- to BB+)
Data for these countries is difficult to find and typically countries exhibit
characteristics where at least two of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will
exhibit the below:
Economic Characteristics
The economy is often unstable and underdeveloped, multiple major indicators of economic health
show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are deficient and will
not be functioning adequately for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic
growth and unemployment will show structural weakness. Government finances are usually in a
materially weak state. Countries in this Tier have often experienced a credit event and are undergoing
or have recently undergone debt rescheduling/ default programs. Many countries in Tier 4 may be
highly reliant on remittances from overseas based national and foreign aid programs for a significant
portion of their income.
Political Characteristics
The political system is usually unstable, its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the
administrative government will often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/
direction of the country. Countries in Tier 4 will have often undergone a major political change
through non-electoral means in near term past. Usually in Tier 4 countries the role of government as
an owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is highly opaque and the role of the state
in the economy is often large. State institutions usually lack independence from the administrative
government and rule of law is severely impaired. Corruption is almost certain to be a drag significant
drag on political risk.
Structural Characteristics
The structural components of the country are often weak in at least two of its major aspects. The
country will have poor standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and
telecommunication networks. Its education and healthcare levels will often be very poor. However the
demographics may still be relatively strong although these countries often suffer from a Brain Drain
effect.
Access to Capital & Credit Ratings
For Tier 4 countries accessing the capital markets is difficult. It is usally only open to the sovereign and
its related entities but at a significant price. Private sector entities are severely hindered in raising capital
because of the country where they are headquartered.
Debt Indicators
The debt indicators of these countries are typically poor and countries often utilize capital controls
that make indicators hard to equate with those of other countries.

42

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK (ECR)


ECR Tier 5 A score between 0 & 35.9
(can be equated with a credit rating of D to BData for these countries and territories is very difficult to find and collate. Many
countries in Tier 5 may be highly reliant on remittances from overseas based national
and foreign aid programs for a significant portion of their income. Countries exhibit
characteristics where at least two of Economic, Political or Structural factors; will
exhibit the below:
Economic Characteristics
The economy is highly underdeveloped and unstable, multiple major indicators of economic health
show persistent negative characteristics. Major areas of economic infrastructure are deficient and will
not be functioning adequately for the needs of the country. Near term factors such as economic
growth and unemployment will show structural weakness. Government finances are usually in a
materially weak state. Countries in this Tier have often experienced a credit event and are undergoing
or have recently undergone debt rescheduling/ default programs. Tier 5 countries will often have high
reliance on remittances and foreign aid programs for income.
Political Characteristics
The political system is usually unstable, its workings can be difficult to understand and changes in the
administrative government will often cause significant changes in the nature of political governance/
direction of the country. Countries in Tier 5 will have often undergone a major political change
through non-electoral means in the near term past. In Tier 5 countries the role of government as an
owner/ employer/ regulator in relevant economic sectors is highly opaque and the role of the state in
the economy is often large. State institutions usually lack independence from the administrative
government and rule of law is severely impaired. Corruption is almost certain to be a significant drag
on political risk.
Structural Characteristics
The structural components of the country are often weak in all major aspects. The country will have
poor standards of physical infrastructure such as roads, airports and telecommunication networks. Its
education and healthcare levels will often be very poor. However the demographics may still be
relatively strong although these countries often suffer from a "Brain Drain" effect.
Access to Capital & Credit Ratings
For Tier 4 countries accessing the capital markets is difficult. In most cases the country cannot access
the capital markets.
Debt Indicators
The debt indicators of these countries are typically very poor if there is any data at all. Many countries
will have no track record of borrowing from overseas commercial sources.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

43

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK DATA

Euromoney Country Risk Data Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 (all countries)


2012
Ranking Country

Dec 12
ECR
Score

2011
Ranking

Dec 11
ECR
Score

2012
Ranking Country

Dec 12
ECR
Score

2011
Ranking

Dec 11
ECR
Score

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45

89.87
87.29
86.84
86.81
86.78
84.54
82.64
82.43
81.82
81.82
81.1
80.88
80.63
78.29
74.65
74.37
73.75
73.48
72.89
72.6
71.99
71.63
70.4
69.67
69.05
69
67.79
67.27
66.56
66.31
66.21
65.54
64.84
63.79
63.43
62.4
60.54
60.17
59.88
58.9
58.76
58.36
57.96
57.58
57.43

1
4
2
7
3
6
5
10
8
9
12
13
11
14
15
18
16
20
19
17
21
29
27
24
25
23
32
36
35
28
33
26
30
38
34
51
22
39
41
44
42
31
47
69
43

91.17
87.84
88.51
85.08
88.40
85.10
85.36
83.68
84.71
84.70
82.14
82.12
82.33
81.59
76.28
75.24
76.19
73.20
75.20
76.10
72.27
68.44
69.42
71.07
70.37
71.60
66.23
63.58
64.67
69.27
66.13
69.83
67.19
63.18
65.44
56.22
71.66
62.93
61.77
58.69
59.71
66.56
57.69
49.28
58.72

46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90

57.26
57.12
57.01
56.95
56.95
56.88
56.79
56.74
56.22
55.69
55.47
55.01
54.07
53.43
52.68
52.3
51.92
51.23
50.67
50.62
50.39
50.08
49.47
49.31
48.99
46.95
46.78
45.95
45.78
45.78
45.69
44.8
44.02
43.61
43.55
43.33
42.48
41.07
40.63
40.2
39.23
39.21
39.16
38.92
38.89

46
75
49
52
45
37
54
48
53
50
63
60
40
55
59
56
65
64
58
61
67
62
57
66
73
71
68
79
72
74
70
77
76
90
85
86
78
80
81
92
106
101
87
82
83

58.18
46.48
56.73
55.79
58.26
63.28
55.19
57.59
55.38
56.61
50.77
52.69
62.27
54.60
53.07
54.47
50.26
50.67
53.53
52.61
49.63
52.27
54.27
49.88
47.49
47.83
49.44
45.17
47.62
46.72
48.90
45.99
46.36
40.96
42.62
42.60
45.71
44.43
43.50
39.44
35.85
37.45
42.44
42.89
42.74

Norway
Luxembourg
Singapore
Sweden
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Hong Kong
Netherlands
Canada
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
Austria
United States
Chile
Taiwan
Qatar
United Kingdom
France
Belgium
Kuwait
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Malta
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Israel
Korea South
United Arab Emirates
Japan
Poland
Malaysia
Macau
Bahamas
Slovenia
Brazil
China
Mexico
Colombia
Cyprus
Iceland
Barbados
Bermuda

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Ireland
Trinidad & Tobago
Turkey
Peru
South Africa
Italy
Lithuania
Panama
Thailand
Botswana
Brunei
Bahrain
Spain
Croatia
Russia
India
Uruguay
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Portugal
Mauritius
Costa Rica
Hungary
Philippines
Latvia
Romania
Namibia
Tunisia
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Sri Lanka
Ghana
Jordan
Armenia
El Salvador
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Mongolia
Paraguay
Algeria
Bolivia
Gabon
Macedonia (FYR)
Serbia
Vietnam

45

EUROMONEY COUNTRY RISK DATA

46

2012
Ranking Country

Dec 12
ECR
Score

2011
Ranking

Dec 11
ECR
Score

2012
Ranking Country

Dec 12
ECR
Score

2011
Ranking

Dec 11
ECR
Score

91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138

38.71
38.29
38.01
37.97
37.58
37.53
37.41
37.08
36.96
36.75
36.41
36.22
35.9
35.73
35.53
35.16
34.88
34.65
34.1
34.03
33.95
33.72
33.69
33.66
33.25
33.17
32.72
32.45
32.09
32.02
31.96
31.92
31.46
31.35
30.79
30.65
30.6
29.82
29.82
29.55
29.19
28.99
28.6
28.43
28.4
28.39
28.12
28.11

100
89
98
88
102
124
108
91
97
84
116
107
113
109
111
94
96
110
103
115
104
95
99
105
114
93
122
121
128
134
120
117
129
119
130
112
118
126
167
131
146
132
160
144
123
127
151
150

37.45
41.70
37.95
42.29
37.06
31.77
35.69
40.11
37.99
42.67
33.47
35.76
34.21
35.38
34.91
39.01
38.67
35.24
36.72
33.91
36.54
38.95
37.71
36.05
34.19
39.31
32.35
32.43
29.63
28.20
32.56
33.35
29.32
32.72
29.16
34.87
33.11
29.88
13.44
28.77
24.00
28.38
16.14
24.50
32.12
29.80
21.45
21.46

139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
185

27.9
27.86
27.79
27.69
27.49
27.4
27.23
26.86
25.68
25.05
24.3
24.29
24.12
23.88
23.78
23.43
23.36
23.27
23.02
22.99
22.7
22.42
20.75
19.81
19.64
19.18
18.91
18.48
18.19
16.46
15.83
15.1
14.98
13.85
12.71
12.61
12.38
11.41
11.28
9.23
8.53
7.64
5.72
5.12
4.21
2.41
0
0

147
161
165
138
125
133
135
137
142
155
136
157
171
179
139
180
140
141
163
143
152
145
154
158
159
153
166
149
162
148
156
169
174
164
168
176
172
173
170
182
177
175
178
181
183
184
185
186

22.01
15.79
13.70
27.60
30.01
28.26
28.10
28.05
25.10
20.69
28.05
19.34
10.34
7.60
27.55
5.60
26.88
26.42
14.66
24.91
21.09
24.30
20.77
18.37
18.20
20.82
13.68
21.97
15.34
22.00
20.53
11.18
9.38
13.80
13.24
8.40
9.62
9.40
10.99
5.00
8.00
8.62
7.70
5.10
4.20
2.40
0.00
0.00

Angola
Nigeria
Honduras
Seychelles
Albania
Burkina Faso
Guatemala
Tanzania
Zambia
Lebanon
Suriname
Mozambique
Papua New Guinea
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Kenya
Uganda
Liberia
Ukraine
Greece
Madagascar
Argentina
Belize
Venezuela
Montenegro
Egypt
Moldova
Malawi
Cameroon
Guyana
Bangladesh
Mali
Senegal
Rwanda
Jamaica
Lesotho
Gambia
Iraq
Grenada
Dem. Rep. Of the Congo
Benin
Sierra Leone
St Vincent & Grenadines
Congo
Nicaragua
Togo
Cte dIvoire
Libya

Yemen
St Lucia
Bhutan
Guinea-Bissau
Pakistan
Belarus
Ethiopia
Guinea
Niger
Dominica
Iran
Cambodia
Maldives
Burundi
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Mauritania
Syria
Sudan
Fiji
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
Nepal
Swaziland
Turkmenistan
Haiti
Afghanistan
Cuba
Myanmar
Samoa
Zimbabwe
Tajikistan
Cape Verde
Antigua & Barbuda
Somalia
Vanuatu
Tonga
Korea North
Chad
Solomon Islands
Laos
Equatorial Guinea
Sao Tome & Principe
Djibouti
Eritrea
Marshall Islands
Central African Republic
Micronesia (Fed. States)
New Caledonia

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

ASIA-PACIFIC

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

47

TRADE FINANCE IN ASIA

Regional View of Trade Finance in the


Asian Market
By Hiromitsu Otsu, Joint General Manager, Head of Asia for GTFD

Despite the continuing global economic uncertainty, trade financing within Asia is
boosting banks' earnings. Asian banks have been increasing trade finance activities in
the region even in the teeth of the eurozone crisis.
The push by Asian financial institutions into the market suggests that trade finance
estimated at $10 trillion a year globally and supporting more than 80% of global trade
remains available in Asia. This represents a significant shift, as European Banks have
historically dominated this sector.
Many countries within Asia have been working to expand their economies and increase
their strategic positions in international trade and foreign investment. China has become
the third largest country in terms of total trade volume, second largest in exports and
third largest in imports. China is one of the major exporters for various products and a
significant importer of energy, natural resources and agricultural products. Trade links
between Asia, Europe and Americas have grown robustly. As a result, Asia is increasingly
considered the factory of the world, with expanding cross-border trade and foreign
investment becoming a core part of the manufacturing process.
Furthermore, Asian banks leverage relationships with firms in developing markets to
extend their global networks. At the heart of banks infrastructure, global technology
platforms have enabled them to maximise trade finance opportunities presented by the
rapidly developing economies. In addition, with economic activity shifting from the
West to the East and trade linkages increasing between China and other ASEAN
economies, more Asian banks are providing trade financing services to their clients.
This is an attractive business as most trades are short-term and transactionally secured.
Over the past few years, Supply Chain Finance has gained prominence among
corporate CFOs as an important tool with which to manage working capital and to
drive efficiencies throughout the procurement and manufacturing processes. We are
seeing a fairly broad-based increase in supply chain activity in our European, Americas
and Asian regions. There has been a growing acceptance among banks and other

48

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

TRADE FINANCE IN ASIA


investors as to the attractiveness of the asset class. In addition, the absolute level of
interest rates being as low as they are has also had a beneficial effect on the nominal
level of the discount- a fact that has
been very appealing to suppliers.

Supply Chain Finance represents a


major opportunity for banks to
generate revenue and increase
liquidity in the market. It
represents the most prominent
example of open account services
directly linked to the relationship
between cash and trade.

Today, Supply Chain Finance is


more often sought out by
companies that want to ensure the
ongoing viability of their supply
chain. This is particularly true of
the many Asian and European
suppliers
whose
businesses
expanded rapidly on the back of
large
orders
from
western
companies that sought to outsource
their manufacturing and production to lower cost countries.

Major buyers are now engaging in


Supply Chain Finance programs
that will help their upstream
suppliers, both international and domestic, to secure post shipment financing (from
suppliers point of view) at more attractive rates. These buyers represent many
industries: retail, consumer products, automotive, communications infrastructure,
manufacturers, pharmaceutical, chemical, apparel and technology sectors. Supply
Chain Finance programs assisted by a technology platform allow automated
discounting of a large volume of receivables by a large number of big and small
suppliers.
By offering Supply Chain Finance, large buyers support their suppliers by getting
them access to alternative and cheaper sources of funding and by expediting their cash
collection. In return, buyers are better able to negotiate procurement costs and stretch
their payment terms. By using Supply Chain Finance, corporations are able to free up
funds while at the same time ensuring an uninterrupted supply of raw material and
other goods and services.
Supply Chain Finance represents a major opportunity for banks to generate revenue
and increase liquidity in the market. It represents the most prominent example of open
account services directly linked to the relationship between cash and trade.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

49

JAPAN

Seeking growth overseas


By Kaoru Furuya, Joint General Manager, Global Head of Financial Institutions Trade
Finance for GTFD

It has now been more than four years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers an event
that drove the economy into what is now commonly described as the Global Financial
Crisis. Severely affecting the world economy as it did, and without a clear-cut sign of it
ending anytime soon (not least given the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis)the
effects continue to roil the financial industry. Indeed, it has led to the downgrade and
restructuring of many banks, and has placed severe (albeit slowly abating) doubts over
what were once considered secure sovereign bonds.
Regarding financial institutions, major banks in countries such as the United States
and Japan have asset sizes comparable to their host countrys GDP. In Europe, however,
major banks have asset sizes that far exceed their host countrys GDP, meaning that
they had sufficient capitalization to weather the crisis. Developed country central

50

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

JAPAN
banks, being very liquid, are no
longer pumping capital into
emerging markets, but instead
preserving their funds to inject
inwardly, into their own declining
economies and struggling banks.

Facing an increasingly dynamic,


complex, and competitive
environment, Japanese
companies have begun to reach
outside of Japan. The
diversification of a global portfolio
infused with the Japanese
Ganbaru business practice is
becoming more prominent.

The crisis has made BIS regulations


overwhelmingly greater in both
number and scope, and banks are
accordingly preparing for harsher
regulatory capital requirements.
Derivative products, the tickingtime bomb in Robert Kiyosakis
words, will be more cautioned and
regulated. Japan and its banks in
particular, despite not being as
severely affected as those of
Europe, are still repairing the
damage incurred from the twin
effects of the bursting of the bubble
and the great earthquake of two years ago. For Japanese banks, the process of recovery
is occurring through their practicing of conventional business: accumulating profit bit
by bit to recover the deteriorated capital.
On the other hand, European banks continue to receive government support, largely
funded through taxpayer dollars. Attempting to right themselves against various forms
of financial, regulatory and structural headwinds, they are making moves into more
conventional banking businesses while continuing to practice active risk management.
In general, banks around the world have and will continue to become more selective
in the business they choose to engage in and the markets they choose to enter.
Liquidity in the emerging markets will not grow very much in the next period, and
will no longer be provided by OECD banks, if at least for some time. Globally, banks
will evaluate their strengths, and seek to cooperate with one another to balance out
their relative weaknesses. Alliances will be more important than ever: not necessarily
the need for more capital, but rather an increased focus on the recognition of real
business arising from real relationships.
Despite its struggling financial condition, Japan has always been a prominent figure in
the world economy. Famous for high quality consumer and finished goods such as
electronics and automobiles, Japanese companies continue to lose market share
globally, due in large part to their reluctance to make aggressive moves and take the
decisions necessary to embrace new markets and field-off rising competitors.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

51

JAPAN
Japanese companies are having a challenging time competing on cost while
simultaneously offering high-quality products, particularly regarding China and South
Korea. Their continuing heavy reliance on domestic markets is widely considered to
be a losing strategy, given the countrys shrinking population, emigrating youth, and
aging pensioners. An older population will by definition mean fewer active workers,
less consumption per capita, and a smaller base of labor with which to produce wealth.
The conclusion, drawn by global markets if not the countrys companies themselves, is
that Japanese companies will have to expand internationally in order to grow. This
means continued adherence to a determined business focus, or, Ganbaru, that has
made the Japanese business model distinct.
Japan very much needs the expansion and growth arising from Asia, and from
emerging markets in particular. In fact, technologies can be leveraged to foster
integration and multiply the benefits arising from this incorporation. We can already
see Japanese companies that have set up production bases and offices in Asian
countries, such as Nissan in Indonesia, Honda in Thailand, etc. We can expect much
more of this to occur in the emerging markets in the near future.
The Fukushima Nuclear plant incident had many lasting negative effects on industrial
Japan. Socio-political aspects aside, the rising cost of energy has forced Japanese
industry, which relies heavily on electricity and is thus heavily affected by its cost, to
reconsider its manufacturing policy. Competitors in China and South Korea have
brought this issue further to the fore by producing high-quality products at lower cost.
In addition, reliance on the shrinking domestic market is increasingly convincing
Japanese companies to expand internationally to grow.
Aside from building manufacturing bases overseas to engage in one platform of a lowcost strategy, Japanese companies have recently been active in a more collective
approach that is having the effect of increasing capital flows out of the country:
namely, forming strategic alliances, creating regional and global networks and joint
ventures, as well as M&A.
Facing an increasingly dynamic, complex, and competitive environment, Japanese
companies have begun to reach outside of Japan. The diversification of a global
portfolio infused with the Japanese Ganbaru business practice is becoming more
prominent. One might therefore expect to hear more and more about Japanese
companies resurfacing globally in the near future.

52

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

TRADE FINANCE AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE 2012

BEST TRADE BANK IN JAPAN


Winner: Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation

Expanding the network


The award for Best Trade Bank in Japan is keenly fought for, and while voters
obviously are looking at trade activity into and out of the country, it is also a category
that takes into account trade activity by these institutions around the world.
For the Japanese banks, the last few years have been one of expansion in many regions.
And for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, this expansion is paying dividends in
the growth of its various trade finance business lines in the major trade centres. The
bank is the winner of the Best Trade Finance Bank in Japan award for the second year
in succession.
Commenting on the winning of the award, in a statement, Toshio Ishizuka and Eli
Hassine, co-heads of global trade finance at SMBC, note: We are very proud to receive
this award on behalf of SMBC. Financing and risk mitigation has a pivotal role to play
in supporting the international business of our clients, Japanese and non-Japanese alike,
in particular during current challenging market conditions. We believe there is further
huge potential for growth in the medium term across numerous markets, and that
global supply chains will continue to become ever more interconnected.
SMBC is steadily expanding its existing worldwide network of trade professionals in
order to be even closer to our clients global business, and through one global
department incorporating supply chain finance, export credit agency-backed facilities
and support to commodity traders and exporters, we are able to provide clients with a
full range of solutions to their needs. We look forward to continuing to support our
worldwide clients across all markets in the months and years ahead.

Best Trade Bank in Japan


Winner: Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
Highly commended: BTMU
3. Mizuho Bank
(2011 winner: SMBC)
Reprinted from Trade Finance Magazine July/August 2012.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

53

COUNTRY PROFILE

Japan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.5
5,488.6
11.2
24.3
134.3
0.0
5.0
128.0
29.6
215.3
204.0
3.7

2011
-0.8
5,866.5
6.3
-0.1
182.5
0.0
4.6
127.9
30.6
229.6
119.3
2.0

2012
2.2
5,984.4
5.7
2.7
201.2
0.0
4.5
127.6
31.1
236.6
95.4
1.6

2013
1.2
5,997.3
4.3
4.2
215.0
0.0
4.4
127.3
31.5
245.0
137.8
2.3

2014
1.1
6,162.5
5.5
6.4
218.2
0.0
4.5
127.1
32.8
246.2
157.0
2.5

2015
1.2
6,323.7
5.8
6.3
223.8
0.0
4.4
126.7
33.6
247.6
148.4
2.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$1,268,125 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

65.54
69.83 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

54

2012
6.7
4
6.4
5.1
3.1
50.33
8.2
7.7
7.7
6.8
6.9
6.2
72.62
8.1
3.6
7.56
7.13
65.93
6.23
7.92
7.92

2011
7.1
4
6.6
5.5
3
52.43
8.2
7.8
7.8
6.9
7.4
6.2
73.79
8.6
4
7.49
7.39
68.86
6.59
8.54
9.94

Tension over Pacific Islands may result


in more supply chain disruptions for
Japanese factories in China, and the
weakening European economy and the
strong yen are slowing export growth. A
strong business environment has helped
counter two decades of weak growth,
and the highly diversified
manufacturing sector has sought new
opportunities both in high-growth
Asian markets, and by moving up the
value-added chain.The governments
monetary and fiscal policy has become
more aggresive to kick start growth and
escape deflation.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Official Export Credit Agencies


Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)
4-1, Ohtemachi 1-Chome, Chiyoda-Ku,
Tokyo 100-8144, Japan
Tel:
(+81) 3 5218 3100
Fax:
(+81) 3 5218 3955
Website: www.jbic.go.jp

Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)


Ark Mori Building, 6F 12-32, Akasaka 1-chome,
Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-6006, Japan
Tel:
+81-3-3582-5511
Domestic:
JETRO Headquarters Tokyo, JETRO Osaka,
Institute of Developing Economies, and 36 regional offices
Overseas: 73 offices (55 countries)
Website: www.jetro.go.jp

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)


Nibancho Center Building 5-25, Niban-cho,
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8012, Japan
Tel:
+81-3-5226-6660/ 6661/ 6662/ 6663
Website: www.jica.go.jp

Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI)


Chiyoda First Building, East Wing 3rd Floor,
3-8-1 Nishikanda, Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo 101-8359, Japan
Tel:
(+81) 33512 7655
Fax:
(+81) 33512 7660
E-mail: info@nexi.go.jp
Website: www.nexi.go.jp

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

55

CHINA AND
NORTH ASIA
SHANGHAI, CHINA

China, Korea, Mongolia, Hong Kong and Taiwan are never far from the headlines in Trade
Finance, be it in reference to infrastructure projects in rapidly expanding economies
globally, shipbuilding, supply chain, or the internationalisation of the renminbi. SMBCs
Global Trade Finance Department is regionally based out of Hong Kong and its network
of subsidiaries includes Shangai, Beijing, Seoul, and Taipei. For more information see the
SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
How can ECAs help to reduce the volatility of the cyclical shipping market?
Xu Guang, Underwriter at China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure)
Country profiles
China
Hong Kong
Mongolia
South Korea
Taiwan
Agency contact details

56

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

CHINA AND NORTH ASIA

How can ECAs help to reduce the volatility


of the cyclical shipping market?
Xu Guang, Underwriter at China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure)

2012 was a bad year for shipping. For many shipowners, the freight rate just covers the
OPEX (operating expenditure), and any excess is barely enough to cover the interest,
not to mention the principal. A number of shipping companies went bankrupt, such as
OSG and K-line; some companies applied to lending banks for restructuring or
amortization of existing loans. The shipping market is freezing cold and couldnt be
any worse. So whats wrong with shipping?
To answer the question, we need to look back at shipping history.

Shipping cycle history and the involvement of ECAs


Martin Stopford, the senior analyst and head of Clarkson Intelligence center, once
illustrated the dry cargo shipping market in the chart shown.
Over the past 200 years, the shipping market has always fluctuated with economic cycles.
But the problem is that as a capital-intensive industry shipping fluctuates more drastically
than the economic cycle. Especially now, the shipping market goes up and down more
sharply than ever before: the booms are higher than expected, and the recessions are
deeper and longer than most people anticipated. In mid 2008, the market climbed to the
peak, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rising to a historic high of 11,793. In late 2008,
following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the onset of the global financial crisis,
the BDI collapsed to the extremely low level of 827. At that time the whole market was
in a panic. In 2009 and 2010, thanks to the stimulus plans from different countries
including Chinas $4 trillion stimulus package, the freight rate market picked up to some
extent. Later on it slipped again including Capesize, Panamax, and Handysize.
Export Credit Agency (ECA) financing is supposed to counter economic fluctuations
and to enhance the confidence of the market in recession.This is even more important
in the ECA-backed shipping business. Since shipping is so volatile, ECA involvement
is particularly appropriate, but must be based on some established principles:

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

57

58

Source: Compiled by Martin Stopford from various sources

Shipping cycle history

CHINA AND NORTH ASIA

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

CHINA AND NORTH ASIA


1. Support established ship-owners
Shipping is an old industry. There are many established ship-owners engaged in the
market that have been in operation for a minimum of 20 years, having therefore been
through at least two shipping cycles. They have seen both good times and bad times,
and hence do have a rational and
cautious approach to the business.
These owners have the capability
to deal with the cyclical
fluctuation,
overcome
the
difficulties and get through a
downturn. Some owners are
dedicated to the shipping industry,
from one generation to next
generation. These dedicated shipowners are respected in the
shipping cycle and deserve support.

Over the past 200 years, the


shipping market has always
fluctuated with economic cycles.
But the problem is that as a
capital-intensive industry shipping
fluctuates more drastically than
the economic cycle.

Ship owner are diverse, and include


independent owners, operation
owners, charter owners, and
tonnage providers. They play different roles in the market, and therefore there are
different requirements for different owners depending on their operation history. For
operation owners, a worldwide network, fleet structure, and long term clients are very
important. For tonnage providers the ability to manage capital is vital.

2. Support real demand


Speculation is said to be one of the reasons of tonnage oversupply. Speculation blows
up the price and causes bubbles, which damages the market. So ECAs should refuse
speculative orders and try to keep the supply-demand balance of the shipping market.
In China, even some shipyards are the outcome of speculation. They get into
shipbuilding without any experience. Hence they are known as green field shipyards
which have few new orders and are mostly redundant. For these green field
shipyards, Sinosure will give hardly any support. These over capacities must now be
taken over or converted for other purposes.
What real market demand? Obviously if there is a market shortage, then there is real
demand for newbuild ships. In reality however its not easy to judge the supplydemand balance situation. In shipping market practice, some signals help to make a
better judgment. If there are some backup from the charter, the cargo owner or other
party, then the ship order is needed. Typically a long term charter is good evidence,
either a bareboat charter or a time charter. If the ship is employed by the cargo owner,

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

59

CHINA AND NORTH ASIA


the Contract of Affreightment (COA) should be concluded for the ship. Sometimes a
ship owners fleet is getting old, so newbuilds are ordered as replacements. All these are
real demand. Sometimes the market demand is stable and the potential future supply is
limited and there will soon be a shortage, in which case it is also reasonable to make
newbuild orders to fill a potential gap. As the shipbuilding process can take from one to
three years, and there are always ageing fleets leaving the market, looking forward
ahead of the market to some extent is suitable.

3. Equal and regular payment of principal and interest


According to OECD guidelines (the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export
Credits, specifically the Sector Understanding on Export Credit for Ships), the
principal sum of an export credit shall be repaid in equal installments at regular
intervals of normally six months and a maximum of 12 months. Interest shall be paid
no less frequently than every six months and the first payment of interest shall be made
no later than six months after the starting point of credit. For export credits provided
in support of lease transactions, equal repayments of principal and interest combined
may be applied in lieu of equal repayments of principal.
Different from equal and regular payment, in the commercial ship finance business,
banks tend to arrange a balloon structure which equals to the 20-30% of the principal
at the end of repayment term. The borrower tries to repay the balloon either with its
own money or borrow new money by refinancing.This leaves a potential danger. If the
market is declining, the borrower may not have enough operational cash flow to repay
the balloon, nor may they borrow money from banks, as they will likely downgrade
the shipping business and stop lending to the sector. In the case of the global financial
crisis, some banks themselves have liquidity problems, not to mention lending to
support clients. In that case, the borrowers cash flow chain is likely to get broken and
they will be unable to repay the balloon.
If the balloon repayment obligation and the market downturn happen in conjunction,
then the curve of freight rate/cash flow and curve of outstanding loan resonate, the gap
between the two curves enlarges and a liquidity problem arises. For example, in the
Capesize sector, if the owner has a balloon payment in late 2012, there is a huge gap of
cash flow. Due to its reliance on refinancing, the balloon is a quite a dangerous game,
which explains why balloon repayments are not allowed by OECD guidelines in the
shipping sector.
As a whole, ECAs always regard shipping as a long term business and keep supporting
real demand in order to reduce the volatility of the sector. However, ECA financing is
only one of the participants in the financial market and shipping market, playing its
role and performing its mission. As shipping is a very large business, ECA involvement
in the shipping business in its way is limited. The regulation and self-discipline in
shipping industry and shipbuilding industry are far more important.

60

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

China
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
10.45
5,930.39
20.09
27.77
163.56
20.42
4.10
1,340.91
21.31
33.54
237.62
4.01

2011
9.24
7,298.15
9.54
8.77
235.75
25.12
4.10
1,347.35
22.66
25.84
201.72
2.76

2012
7.83
8,250.24
8.80
5.00
238.27
24.74
4.10
1,353.82
23.16
22.16
190.68
2.31

2013
8.23
9,038.66
8.80
7.20
231.63
23.41
4.10
1,360.32
23.29
19.57
222.69
2.46

2014
2015
8.51
8.54
9,925.54 10,928.08
11.35
10.38
10.89
11.40
225.32
219.85
22.77
22.22
4.10
4.10
1,366.86 1,373.42
23.39
23.59
17.28
14.95
278.36
348.01
2.80
3.19

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$3,311,590 million
(December 2012)

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

59.88
61.77 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Employment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.6
6.9
6.4
6.4
6.7
64.08
6.3
3.7
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.8
49.26
5.3
4.8
6.72
4.99
54.63
5.49
7.92
7

2011
5.8
7.5
6.3
6.2
7
65.69
6
3.8
3.5
4
5.3
7
49.45
5.4
5
6.63
5.03
55.17
5.61
7.92
8

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

China continues to have one of the


strongest growth rates in the G20.
Despite improvements in its risk profile,
China faces many challenges in regards
to the liberalisation of its financial
system and its currency.The change in
the growth model from exports to
domestic demand may result in weaker
growth going forward. As Chinese
industry matures, China will move up
the value chain with greater emphasis
on home-grown R&D and greater
value-add to exports. More focus will
be placed on infrastructure and
manufacturing capacity in rural areas
and Western provinces.

61

COUNTRY PROFILE

Hong Kong SAR


% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.1
224.2
17.3
16.7
15.3
0.4
4.3
7.1
22.5
34.6
12.4
5.5

2011
5.0
243.7
4.7
4.2
18.8
0.6
3.4
7.1
24.4
33.8
12.9
5.3

2012
1.8
258.0
-1.2
-1.8
19.6
0.6
3.4
7.2
21.6
33.1
10.5
4.1

2013
3.5
273.7
6.5
6.3
20.0
0.6
3.3
7.2
20.8
31.0
10.5
3.8

2014
4.3
293.3
7.8
7.7
20.0
0.6
3.2
7.3
21.4
30.4
12.1
4.1

2015
4.3
314.8
7.8
7.7
20.0
0.5
3.2
7.4
22.1
29.7
14.2
4.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$299,600 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

82.43
83.68 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

62

2012
7.6
7.1
7
7.7
9
76.65
8.9
8
8.7
8.9
6.8
7
80.61
8.1
7.6
8.55
7.55
79.67
8.04
9.58
9.67

2011
7.6
7.4
7.6
7.9
9.1
79.33
8.8
8.5
8.7
8.9
7.3
7
82.18
8.1
7.8
8.57
7.62
80.11
8.23
9.58
9

Hong Kong is one of the most vigorous


trade markets in the world with few
barriers to entry or doing business, and
there are great opportunities for trade
and export in both the public and
private sectors, and infrastructure. In
addition to being the region's most
important sourcing, trading,
transportation and communications
centre, and its role as a gateway to
China, Hong Kong is also at the
forefront of the internationalisation of
the renminbi.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Mongolia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.4
6.2

2011
17.5
8.7

2012
12.7
9.9

2013
15.7
12.9

2014
11.8
16.1

2015
4.7
18.9

0.7
0.2
9.9
2.8
36.5

1.1
0.3
7.7
2.8
39.7

1.3
0.3
6.8
2.8
37.1

1.3
0.3
6.1
2.9
33.8

1.3
0.3
5.4
2.9
32.0

1.5
0.3
4.6
3.0
31.2

-0.9
-14.9

-2.8
-31.8

-3.1
-31.4

-1.3
-10.1

-0.1
-0.7

0.4
2.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$4090.7 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

41.07
44.43 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.2
5.8
4
5.8
3.7
46.88
4.6
3.8
4.2
4.8
3.8
4.5
42.81
2.7
4.6
3.38
3.13
34.38
4.13
2.08
4.5

2011
4.9
6.1
4.6
5.5
3.5
49.29
4.4
3.9
5.1
5
4.4
4.6
45.93
3.1
4.5
3
3.14
34.29
4.68
2.08
5.67

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Huge investment in mining projects and


related infrastructure and rising mine
output will keep economic growth in
double-digit rates for the foreseeable
future.The economy slowed in 2012
after rising 17.3% in 2011, but with the
Oyu Tolgoi mine to come online
during the second half of 2013, high
growth should resume.The biggest
challenge facing the country is
managing inflationary pressures in order
to prevent the economy from
overheating.

63

COUNTRY PROFILE

South Korea
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.3
1,014.9
17.3
14.7
68.7
0.0
3.7
49.4
22.7
33.4
29.4
2.9

2011
3.6
1,116.2
6.5
9.5
100.8
0.0
3.4
49.8
23.4
34.2
26.5
2.4

2012
2.7
1,151.3
2.9
3.4
105.6
0.0
3.3
50.0
23.5
33.5
22.3
1.9

2013
3.6
1,234.0
8.8
9.0
107.7
0.0
3.3
50.2
23.5
31.6
21.1
1.7

2014
4.0
1,321.9
11.2
10.0
107.2
0.0
3.3
50.5
23.6
29.4
18.1
1.4

2015
4.0
1,417.1
12.2
10.6
107.0
0.0
3.3
50.7
23.6
27.2
14.7
1.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$326,091 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

66.31
69.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

64

2012
5.8
6.4
6.3
7.1
6.5
64.38
7.2
6.1
7.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
67.04
7.2
5.5
7.45
5.45
63.96
6.52
7.29
6.67

2011
5.8
6.6
6.2
7.4
6.4
64.67
7.2
6.2
7.5
6.6
6.5
6
66.78
7.2
5.5
7.43
5.49
63.92
7.57
7.29
8.67

A slowdown in 2012 linked to the


Eurozone crisis is expected to end in
2013 in most sectors, though SMEs will
continue to find conditions difficult.
South Koreas high value-added export
sector and large conglomerates will be
lifted as China experiences higher
growth. GDP growth in 2013 is
estimated at 3.6% up almost a full
percentage point on 2012, with growth
of 4% predicted for 2014.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Taiwan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
10.7
430.2
28.3
25.1
38.0
14.2
5.2
23.2
18.0
38.1
39.9
9.3

2011
4.0
466.4
-0.5
5.2
44.5
17.4
4.4
23.2
18.8
40.5
41.6
8.9

2012
1.3
466.1
1.6
1.6
35.0
14.0
4.5
23.4
17.5
41.7
32.0
6.9

2013
3.9
469.3
4.8
5.8
35.2
11.7
4.3
23.6
18.0
40.9
34.2
7.3

2014
4.5
504.0
5.2
6.4
37.8
12.6
4.2
23.9
18.0
39.8
35.2
7.0

2015
4.7
545.8
5.4
6.6
40.9
13.6
4.1
24.1
18.0
37.5
38.7
7.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$403,170 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

73.75
76.19 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.2
6.4
7.6
7
6.8
69.8
7.8
6.8
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.4
73.17
7.6
6.7
7.61
7.14
72.65
8.35
7.92
7.33

2011
7.3
6.8
7.5
7.3
7
71.87
7.8
6.9
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.4
73.54
7.6
6.7
7.51
7.14
72.32
7.6
7.92
9.67

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Taiwan is a technology hub offering


huge export and trade investment
opportunities through its significant
R&D base and a vibrant SME sector.
Taiwan is a strong partner in the
development of global supply chains
given its strength in contract
manufacturing. A big drop in GDP
growth in 2012, down to 1.3% is
expected to reverse in 2013.

65

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


China
China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure)
North Wing, Fortune Times Building,
No. 11 Fenghuiyuan, Xicheng District,
Beijing, 100032, China
Tel:
+86 10 66582288
Fax:
+86 10 66517828
Email: bu-sir@sinosure.com.cn
Website: www.sinosure.com.cn

The Export-Import Bank of China


No.30, Fu Xing Men Nei Street,
Xicheng District,
Beijing 100031, China
Tel:
(86) 10 8357 9988, 8357 9000
Fax:
(86) 10 6606 0636
Website: www.eximbank.gov.cn

Hong Kong
Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation (ECIC)
2nd Floor, Tower 1, South Seas Centre,
75 Mody Road, Tsimshatsui East,
Kowloon, Hong Kong
Tel:
(+852) 2732 9988
Fax:
(+852) 2722 6277 / 6411
Email: info@hkecic.com
Website: www.hkecic.com / www.ec-link.com.hk

66

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

South Korea
Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-sure)
2nd to 16th Floors, Seoul Central Building,
136 Seorin-dong, Jongno-gu,
Seoul 110-729, South Korea
Tel:
(+82) 2 399 6800
Fax:
(+82) 2 399 6598
Website: www.ksure.or.kr

The Export-Import Bank of Korea (Korea Eximbank)


16-1,Yeouido-dong Yeongdeungpo-gu
Seoul, 150-996, South Korea
Tel:
(+82) 2 3779 6114
Fax:
(+82) 2 784 1030
Website: www.koreaexim.go.kr

Taiwan
The Export-Import Bank of the Republic of China (Eximbank)
8th Floor, 3 Nanhai Road,
Taipei, Taiwan
Tel:
(+886) 02-2321-0511
Fax:
(+886) 02-2394-0630
Email: eximbank@eximbank.com.tw
Website: www.eximbank.com.tw

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

67

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


Asian Development Bank (ADB)
6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Philippines
Tel:
+ 632 632 4444
Fax:
+ 632 636 2444
Email: information@adb.org, tradefinanceunit@adb.org
Website: www.adb.org

China Development Bank


29 Fuchengmenwai Street
Xicheng District
Beijing 100037
P.R.China
Tel:
+86-10-68306688
Fax:
+86-10-68306699
Email: webmaster@cdb.com.cn
Website: www.cdb.com.cn

Korea Development Bank


14 Eunhaeng-ro
Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul 150-973
South Korea
Tel:
+82-2-1588-1500
Website: www.kdb.co.kr

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SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA


BANGKOK, THAILAND

South and South East Asia is one of the most vibrant trade finance regions, with
burgeoning manufacturing and intra-Asian trade; official agency-backed infrastructure
and commodity extraction and processing projects; and commodity-rich exporting
nations such as Indonesia. Regionally, SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has
an office in Singapore, and its network includes Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Hanoi and
Jakarta. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
Facilitating Asian Trade in 2013 Janet Hyde, Victoria Tyo and Edward Faber, the
relationship management team of the Asian Development Banks Trade Facilitation Programme,
discuss the latest developments in Asian trade finance market.
Country profiles
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Pakistan

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam

Agency contact details

69

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA

Facilitating Asian Trade in 2013


Janet Hyde, Victoria Tyo and Edward Faber, the relationship management team of the
Asian Development Banks Trade Facilitation Programme, discuss the latest developments in
Asian trade finance market.

As the developed economies lurched from crisis to crisis, credit appetite remained
subdued and regulatory uncertainties persisted, the western world had a difficult year in
2012. By contrast the economies of Asia, although not without their problems, continued
to be dynamic and forward looking and it is against this backdrop that the Trade Finance
Programme (TFP) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) moves into 2013. Established
ten years ago, the programmes period of greatest growth was in the wake of the 2008
financial crisis as credit to the region, especially from the European banks, was suddenly
withdrawn. By 2012 private sector support for trade remained difficult for Asias most
challenging markets and, compounded by the prospect of tougher regulatory
requirements, the ADB formally extended the programme indefinitely.
The TFP fills market gaps in trade finance by providing guarantees and loans through
over 200 partner banks in support of imports and exports to, from and within the
Asian region. In 2012, it handled over 2000 transactions totaling almost $4 billion.
Over 80% of those transactions supported intra-regional trade and almost as much
again involved SMEs thereby meeting two key strategic aims for the ADB. Intraregional trade increased by 60% year on year while there was 138% growth in
transactions for SME buyers alone. This sector is often regarded as the engine of
economic growth yet is one that still faces the greatest challenge in obtaining finance.
In Pakistan, because the countrys oil requirement was adequately met by the
commercial banking community, the TFP was able to focus its resources on the smaller
ticket transactions in support of SMEs.
In 2012, by far the most active countries in terms of the value of trade volumes
supported under the programme were Vietnam and Pakistan followed by Uzbekistan,
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It is countries such as these for which the programme
anticipates the need for sustained trade support in the medium-term as demand for oil,
capital goods for infrastructure projects, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals and consumer
goods continues unabated in an unpredictable credit environment. .
In 2012, ADB is in the early stages of expanding the programme to three new

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The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA


countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while trade transactions for Georgia
grew eight-fold during the year as recently approved lines for countries in the
Caucasus become actively utilised. The programme continues to extend its geographic
reach. In 2012, the TFP was launched in both Turkmenistan and Myanmar and an
introductory seminar will be held in the Pacific Islands in February 2013.
One of the reasons we see gaps for trade finance increasing, and therefore demand for
trade facilitation and support rising, is the prospect of tougher regulatory requirements
for the financing of trade by banks worldwide. Yet the TFP strongly believes that
default rates for trade finance are extremely low. To demonstrate that trade finance
should be treated as a unique asset class for regulatory purposes, TFP proposed the
creation of a Trade Finance Default
Register to the International
Chamber of Commerce, which
ADB funded and subsequently
implemented in 2011, the first
exercise ever conducted on an
industry-wide scale. It revealed a
0.02% probability of default on a
data set of over 5.2 million trade
finance transactions over a 5 year
period and at the height of the
global financial crisis. Partly as a
result of this work, in October of
2011 Basel provided some
concessions for trade finance, but,
given the growth of the program
and increasing economic activity in the Asian region, the programme perceives a
continuing need to distinguish trade assets from other higher risk, longer term business
on a banks balance sheet. In 2013, the TFP is still working with the International
Chamber of Commerce to broaden and deepen statistics in trade finance to influence
the continuing debate with bank regulators regarding the future treatment of trade
finance products under Basel III. Ultimately it seeks to encourage the private sector to
increase its engagement with Asias more challenging markets.

One of the reasons we see gaps


for trade finance increasing, and
therefore demand for trade
facilitation and support rising, is
the prospect of tougher regulatory
requirements for the financing of
trade by banks worldwide.

In a broader sense, though, regulatory requirements are set to become more rigorous
in years to come and banks will have to put more capital aside in order to conduct just
the same level of business as in the past. This could restrict the availability of credit
extended to the Asian region in terms of bank and country limits because if the home
economy is weak and banks remain reluctant or unable to lend, they will not be
generating sufficient income with the consequence that lending will have to be
curtailed instead. And its not just the regulatory issues that could impact the
availability of bank and country limits to Asias developing countries and with it the

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71

SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA


local banks ability to rely on them to support their trade finance activities.
Commodity prices, especially for energy and foodstuffs, are not expected to fall in the
coming years and so banks will need to maintain their lines of credit and probably
increase them over time simply in order to maintain the same volume of trade.
It is crucial therefore that the TFP achieves its objective is to mobilise private sector
capital and involvement in developing Asia in order to maximise support to emerging
markets against finite capital resources. In 2012, TFP drew in $2.4 billion in cofinancing from mostly private sector partners such as banks and insurance companies,
over 60% of the total annual volume. The programmes most active partner banks
continue to be the traditional players with a long-term commitment to the Asian
region and who remain very
relationship-focused. But there is
an increasingly potent Asian flavor
to the mix of confirming banks
particularly those in India and
China that are also approved under
the programme. The aim to not
compete with the private banking
sector but to work in partnership
until it becomes sufficiently
comfortable and the ADBs support
is no longer needed.

The cost of taking trade risk


has become more divergent
in the region as countries
develop at their different paces
and shifts in global credit flows
come into play.

Pricing of emerging market risk has


brought this very issue to the fore in
the second half of 2012 and is expected to continue as a focus of attention in 2013.The
cost of taking trade risk has become more divergent in the region as countries develop
at their different paces and shifts in global credit flows come into play. While some of
the relationship orientated banks have stood by their long-term commitment to the
Asian region, the rush to confirm short term trade in the more familiar countries as
investors resume the search for yield is driving pricing down rather than reflecting the
risks that a still developing country poses. However, in places such as Vietnam, the cost
of transactions actually rose given the combination of huge international demand with
economic slowdown and concerns over bank asset quality.
There is huge untapped potential for trade between Asia and other emerging markets of
the world. The ADB is providing technical assistance and advice to other multi-lateral
development banks in order to promote this south-south trade. TFP is providing
technical assistance to the African Development Bank for example to support the
establishment of a trade finance programme for Africa The TFP has also entered an
agreement with the trade finance programme at Inter-American Development Bank to
support trade flows between Asia and Latin America. TFP has already supported a
number of transactions between developing countries on the two continents.

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SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA


Such collaboration, whatever the nature of the partnership, extends beyond just risk
sharing.The appetite for training, technical expertise and knowledge sharing is huge: it
is not just credit lines that are needed but real international banking experience and
expertise. The hunger for knowledge within the local banks themselves as their
economies expand and open up to a wider market is tangible and is a need that the
TFP is renewing its efforts to meet in 2013 in countries such as Myanmar and
Cambodia, for example.
It is vital that the TFP recognises the need to keep pace with a variety of other
evolving requirements across the 18 countries currently under the programme and it is
in the process of launching new products in response. Intra-regional trade in Asia in
the next 10 years is expected to
account for at least half of all
foreign trade for Asian countries. At
present, 90% of all foreign trade in
Asia is settled in US dollars, but this
percentage is expected to decline in
favour of settlement of trade
transactions denominated in Asian
currencies. In July 2012, the
renminbi and Indian rupee were
approved for inclusion in the TFP
by the ADB.

Asia is seen as one of the worlds


key drivers of global growth and
yet can still be regarded as a
frontier market at the same time.
The challenge for the Program will
be to promote projects that
remain relevant to an increasingly
prosperous region of the world.

Approval was also given by the


ADB towards the end of 2012 for
the provision of supply chain
finance designed initially to support
a supplier from a developing country
whose customer is a large corporate
based say in China, India or Indonesia, or a multinational from outside the Asian region,
that can command extended payment terms.The ADB will be able to step in to provide
post shipment /post acceptance finance to the exporter to improve its cash flow and so
provide liquidity for further investment in his business.
Asia is seen as one of the worlds key drivers of global growth and yet can still be
regarded as a frontier market at the same time.The challenge for the Program will be to
promote projects that remain relevant to an increasingly prosperous region of the
world. As recent history has shown, the world is still volatile and risk averse and the
ADB remains a reliable counter-cyclical partner to developing countries through good
times and bad. Furthermore, in a world increasingly characterised by anaemic economic
growth and low job creation it is more important than ever to ensure public and private
partnerships thrive in order to close trade finance market gaps and so stimulate jobs and
economic activity among Asias new and exciting emerging markets.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

73

COUNTRY PROFILE

Bangladesh
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.4
106.2
17.1
19.6
3.3
--

2011
6.5
113.9
10.7
11.3
4.9
--

2012
6.1
118.7
8.3
5.9
6.0
--

2013
6.1
126.7
9.1
8.1
6.5
--

2014
6.7
137.4
10.7
12.5
6.8
--

2015
7.1
149.7
11.9
13.4
7.1
--

146.9
11.5

148.5
11.9

150.0
13.0

151.6
13.9

153.3
14.4

154.9
15.1

1.7
1.6

0.0
0.0

-0.4
-0.3

-0.3
-0.3

0.2
0.2

0.7
0.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$10,190 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

31.96
32.56 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

74

2012
3
6.3
4
4.5
3
41.93
5
2.2
1.7
3.3
1.8
3.8
29.81
0.7
1.6
2.14
0.57
12.69
5.12
2.5
1.5

2011
3.1
6.8
3
4
3.3
39.93
4.3
2.2
2.2
3.5
2.1
3.2
28.94
0.7
0.9
1.7
0.2
8.77
5.36
2.5
3.17

Growth is expected to remain robust in


the 5-6% range. Longer term problems
are beginning to have an impact and
must be addressed, such as the impact of
climate change-induced flooding the
frequency of which is likely to increase
as sea levels rise.The infrastructure
required to mitigate the impact of
floods and cyclones such as dams,
shelters and levees is estimated at
approximately $4 billion, which is close
to 4% of national GDP.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

India
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
10.1
1,630.5
14.0
19.5
100.7
38.1

2011
6.8
1,826.8
11.0
12.9
141.8
56.3

2012
4.9
1,946.8
1.3
3.7
164.4
68.6

2013
6.0
2,117.3
3.3
6.3
177.5
77.8

2014
6.4
2,314.7
7.4
9.5
186.8
85.9

2015
6.7
2,547.0
9.0
10.2
195.0
94.2

1,190.5
18.7
68.0
-52.2
-3.2

1,206.9
18.5
67.0
-62.8
-3.4

1,223.2
18.5
67.6
-74.5
-3.8

1,239.3
18.5
66.7
-69.1
-3.3

1,255.6
18.7
65.6
-65.8
-2.8

1,272.1
18.7
65.1
-64.8
-2.5

(Source: IMF

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$294,994 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

52.3
54.47 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6
6.3
5.3
5.6
4
54.49
6.4
2.9
5.1
5.2
4.5
5
49.01
5.1
6.5
3.77
4.98
51.01
5.1
4.38
6.67

2011
6.4
6.7
5.8
5.1
4.3
56.7
6.6
2.6
5.6
5.1
4.6
5.5
50.54
5.2
6.3
3.76
5.08
51.04
5.42
4.38
7.25

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Economic growth has slowed and is


being maintained by domestic
consumption rather than government
or private sector investment, partly due
to the softer global economic outlook.
However, the longer-term outlook
remains bright with growth at
approximately 6% as the country moves
forward on trade and investment
liberalization, including FTAs with
Japan, ASEAN and the EU.

75

COUNTRY PROFILE

Indonesia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.2
708.4
28.6
10.0
24.3
15.7
7.1
237.6
17.0
26.9
5.1
0.7

2011
6.5
846.5
14.6
6.1
37.1
19.6
6.6
241.0
17.8
24.5
1.7
0.2

2012
6.0
894.9
14.4
1.8
40.9
19.7
6.2
244.5
18.2
23.9
-18.9
-2.1

2013
6.3
1,006.9
8.1
5.2
42.1
19.4
6.1
248.0
18.1
22.2
-24.0
-2.4

2014
6.5
1,188.0
8.1
6.8
41.9
18.6
6.0
251.5
17.8
20.9
-27.7
-2.3

2015
6.6
1,372.5
8.1
6.4
41.8
17.8
5.5
255.1
17.6
19.8
-34.4
-2.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$111,285 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

50.67
53.53 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

76

2012
5.4
6.7
5.1
5.5
6.2
57.95
5.4
3.2
4.8
4
4.3
5.5
45.5
4.5
5.7
4.18
4.53
47.3
4.56
4.17
6.17

2011
5.6
7.1
5.5
5.4
6.4
60.06
5.4
3.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
5.4
48.33
4.9
5.8
4.31
4.81
49.46
4.87
3.75
7.38

As a major commodity exporter, global


economic uncertainty has the largest
impact on Indonesias short-term
growth outlook. Elections in 2014
mean that few reforms are likely in
many key policy areas.The countrys
ambitious master plan to grow the
economy by increasing connectivity
across the country gives Indonesia a
positive outlook for the medium to
long-term as well as plenty of
opportunities for foreign companies.
Complex and inconsistent regulations
remain an issue for trade and
investment. GDP growth of over 6% is
expected to continue in 2013.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Malaysia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.2
246.8
16.6
7.9
13.9
21.1
3.3
28.3
23.9
51.0
27.3
11.1

2011
5.1
287.9
6.1
5.6
18.7
26.3
3.1
28.6
21.9
52.9
31.7
11.0

2012
4.4
307.2
6.5
1.8
19.1
27.6
3.1
29.0
24.4
53.0
23.1
7.5

2013
4.7
340.0
8.5
7.9
18.9
28.1
3.0
29.5
24.1
53.5
23.4
6.9

2014
5.0
367.7
9.1
8.7
19.0
29.1
3.0
30.0
23.7
53.9
23.6
6.4

2015
5.0
397.7
8.7
8.4
18.2
28.8
3.0
30.5
23.3
54.4
23.7
6.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$139,061 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

63.79
63.18 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.3
6.4
6.9
7.6
4.3
63
7.4
4.9
6.6
6
6.4
5.4
61.26
6.7
7
7.47
6.58
69.39
4.59
6.25
8.75

2011
6
6.6
6.2
7.3
4.9
61.86
7.1
5.3
6.6
6.3
6.5
6
63.23
6.6
6.7
7.1
6.46
67.07
4.91
6.25
7.75

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Malaysia is one of the strongest


developing economies in the region,
and an attractive market for investment.
Malaysian industry is moving up the
supply chain to more capital intensive
and higher value-add industries that
employ more advanced technology, and
is less reliant on commodity exports or
semi-finished products.The country
boasts some of the best infrastructure in
the region.

77

COUNTRY PROFILE

Myanmar
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.3
45.4
9.8
15.8
1.0
-4.0
61.2
6.9
53.0
-0.6
-1.3

2011
5.5
51.4
5.2
-3.6
1.2
-4.0
62.4
5.7
53.5
-1.3
-2.6

2012
6.2
54.0
3.5
1.2
1.5
-4.0
63.7
6.1
43.5
-2.4
-4.4

2013
6.3
59.3
16.2
13.1
1.6
-4.0
65.0
6.7
40.3
-2.4
-4.0

2014
6.4
63.9
17.4
16.7
1.6
-4.0
66.3
7.6
38.6
-1.8
-2.9

2015
6.5
68.8
11.5
3.1
1.8
-4.0
67.6
7.5
37.6
-2.7
-4.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$9,000 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

18.48
21.97 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

78

2012
3.7
5.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
37
3.4
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.9
3.4
24.41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2011
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
44
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
27
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.67

The gradual opening up of Myanmar is


one of the biggest shifts in South East
Asian trade in recent years and there is
great potential for infrastructure
development, exploration for oil and
gas, and the development of other
commodities for export. Myanmar also
has great potential as a low-cost
manufacturing base which could see it
figure in global supply chains going
forward. GDP growth in 2013 is
expected to top 6.3%.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Pakistan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.1
176.5
-2.0
0.6
9.7
1.2
5.6
171.7
14.4
61.6
-3.9
-2.2

2011
3.0
210.2
3.1
8.1
11.4
1.7
6.0
175.3
12.8
60.2
0.2
0.1

2012
3.7
230.5
1.4
-0.3
13.6
1.0
7.7
178.9
12.8
62.4
-4.5
-2.0

2013
3.3
236.6
6.5
7.1
14.5
1.6
9.2
182.6
13.6
63.0
-4.0
-1.7

2014
3.5
243.8
4.3
4.4
15.1
1.7
10.7
186.3
13.6
61.6
-6.2
-2.5

2015
3.5
252.7
4.3
4.4
15.9
1.8
12.0
190.0
13.9
59.5
-7.2
-2.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$13,500 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

27.49
30.01 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
2.6
4.1
3.9
3.9
2.1
33.17
3.4
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
27.73
2.2
3.1
2.82
2.32
26.08
4.79
0.31
1.5

2011
3.1
4.9
2.6
3.9
1.8
32.67
3
3
2.7
4
3.3
2.3
30.53
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3
33.42
4.83
0.63
2.25

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Pakistan started 2013 with the


introduction of two new trade and
export finance initiatives to provide
additional support for the import and
purchase of machinery and export
finance assistance for certain identified
sectors, particularly food and locally
manufactured machinery. A number of
large scale infrastructure projects are
underway in the transport and energy
sector. GDP growth in 2013 is expected
to be approximately 3.3%.

79

COUNTRY PROFILE

Philippines
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.6
199.6
22.5
26.7
9.6
1.4
7.3
94.0
17.0
43.5
8.9
4.5

2011
3.9
224.8
-8.0
-9.2
12.6
1.8
7.0
95.9
17.3
41.9
7.1
3.1

2012
4.8
240.7
4.9
5.7
13.9
2.0
7.0
97.7
17.3
41.5
7.1
3.0

2013
4.8
258.5
5.9
5.1
14.9
2.1
7.0
99.7
17.6
39.7
6.7
2.6

2014
5.0
278.3
6.9
5.7
15.6
2.2
7.0
101.6
17.6
38.1
6.8
2.5

2015
5.0
299.2
6.6
5.6
16.3
2.3
7.0
103.7
17.5
36.7
6.6
2.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$85,760 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

49.31
49.88 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

80

2012
4.8
6.1
6.4
5.7
5.6
57.17
5.3
3.5
4.5
4.4
3.8
4.5
43.34
4.4
5
4.71
5.08
48.13
4.13
3.54
6.67

2011
4.2
6.2
5.9
5.5
4.9
53.57
5
3.8
5.6
5
4.6
4.5
47.37
4.9
5.7
4.64
5.57
52.14
4.55
3.33
6.5

The Philippines role in Asian supply


chains and the service sector was
negatively impacted by the 2012
downturn in the developed world and,
combined with lower levels of
investment in infrastructure, the
country saw a dip in growth for the
year. Lower unemployment has helped
boost domestic demand to offset this.
GDP growth should rise gradually to
5% in the coming years.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Singapore
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
14.8
227.4
16.2
19.1
84.8
75.9
2.2
5.2
22.0
101.2
55.5
24.4

2011
4.9
259.8
-0.1
2.6
119.2
108.7
2.0
5.3
24.9
107.6
57.0
21.9

2012
2.1
267.9
3.6
3.0
120.1
109.1
2.1
5.4
22.8
106.2
56.1
21.0

2013
2.9
277.9
4.6
4.3
120.0
109.4
2.1
5.5
23.0
103.4
57.5
20.7

2014
3.6
289.1
4.8
4.3
121.1
110.3
2.1
5.6
23.0
100.8
56.9
19.7

2015
3.7
301.5
5.1
4.5
123.0
111.9
2.1
5.7
22.9
97.8
56.1
18.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$259,307 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

86.84
88.51 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
8.3
6.1
8
7.9
8.5
77.73
9.4
9.3
9
9.1
8.5
8.4
89.32
9
7.8
8.91
8.09
84.32
9.42
10
8.88

2011
8.2
6.7
8.2
8
8.6
79.25
9.3
8.9
9
9.1
8.3
8.2
87.94
8.8
7.9
8.94
8.19
84.69
10
10
9.88

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

As the increasingly pre-eminent


financial, legal and insurance hub for
South-East Asia, and one of the worlds
busiest ports Singapore enjoys one of
the most business friendly environments
in the world. As a major gateway to its
much larger neighbours, and a centre of
commodity finance, Singapore GDP
growth is forecast at 2-3% year-on-year
in 2013.

81

COUNTRY PROFILE

Sri Lanka
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.8
49.6
21.6
16.7
3.0
0.2
4.9
20.4
14.9

2011
8.3
59.2
6.1
7.3
4.3
0.4
4.9
20.5
14.5

2012
6.8
59.8
11.0
6.7
4.9
0.4
4.9
20.7
14.3

2013
6.7
64.6
10.9
6.9
5.2
0.4
4.9
20.8
14.7

2014
6.5
70.1
11.0
7.2
5.1
0.4
4.9
21.0
14.9

2015
6.5
76.5
10.4
7.2
5.4
0.5
4.9
21.1
15.1

-1.1
-2.2

-4.5
-7.7

-3.2
-5.4

-3.1
-4.7

-3.1
-4.5

-3.1
-4.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$7,400 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

45.69
48.90 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

82

2012
5.1
6.5
3.8
6.6
3.3
50.5
5.5
3.8
4.5
5
4.5
4.1
45.66
4.8
7
4.91
5.41
55.22
4.25
2.08
5

2011
5.1
6.7
4.1
6.7
3.5
52
4.8
4.6
5.4
5.1
5.2
4.7
49.48
7
7.6
5.45
6.83
67
4.67
2.08
5

Following the end of the civil war, Sri


Lankas economy expanded rapidly, as
the government invested heavily in
infrastructure, and leveraged its good
relations and its strategic geopolitical
location to attract investment from
China and India. Foreign investment is
encouraged in infrastructure, power
generation, tourism, telecoms and
fisheries.The global financial crisis
curbed growth, but this is expected
to remain strong in the near future.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Thailand
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.8
318.9
25.4
15.8
31.9
0.0
1.0
63.9
22.4
42.6
13.2
4.1

2011
0.1
345.7
11.5
9.9
43.0
0.0
0.7
64.1
22.7
41.7
11.9
3.4

2012
5.6
377.0
12.4
8.3
46.4
0.0
0.7
64.5
21.0
44.2
-0.7
-0.2

2013
6.0
412.7
8.4
8.6
48.7
0.0
0.7
64.8
20.4
46.2
0.3
0.1

2014
4.5
437.3
7.9
8.4
48.7
0.0
0.7
65.2
20.3
48.8
3.6
0.8

2015
4.6
461.0
7.0
7.3
48.8
0.0
0.7
65.6
20.2
49.9
5.7
1.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$181,608 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

56.22
55.38 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.1
6.1
6.5
7.1
5.2
62.18
6.2
4.2
4.9
4.8
4.9
4
48.29
5.4
6.2
6.16
5.82
59.05
5.09
5.42
6.67

2011
6.2
5.6
6.3
6.8
5.2
60.15
5.9
4.3
5
5
5
3.7
48.37
5.5
6.3
6.01
6.22
59.88
5.29
5.42
6.33

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Despite supply chain disruptions caused


by the 2011 floods, and a volatile
political environment,Thailand
maintained substantial levels of foreign
investment in export-oriented
industries. A strong rebound ins 2012
should be consolidated in 2013.

83

COUNTRY PROFILE

Vietnam
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.8
103.6
5.9
6.7
6.8
5.0
4.3
88.3
29.6
54.0
-4.3
-4.1

2011
5.9
122.7
-3.9
3.8
11.2
7.2
4.5
89.3
27.7
50.4
0.2
0.2

2012
5.1
137.7
19.5
19.3
12.0
9.6
4.5
90.4
26.7
50.4
0.5
0.3

2013
5.9
151.9
13.6
12.6
12.5
10.0
4.5
91.5
26.9
50.6
-1.3
-0.9

2014
6.4
165.0
10.3
12.0
12.8
10.0
4.5
92.6
26.4
50.8
-1.8
-1.1

2015
6.8
179.2
10.5
13.0
13.1
10.1
4.5
93.7
26.4
50.5
-2.2
-1.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$20,900 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

38.89
42.74 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

84

2012
2.9
6.2
3.4
6.7
3.4
45.14
4
3
3.1
3.5
3.5
5.3
37.43
4.1
6.1
4
4.79
47.5
4.55
2.08
2.75

2011
3.2
6.8
3.1
6.5
3.5
46.25
3.9
3
3.4
3.3
3.7
5.9
38.73
4.5
6.6
4.17
4.79
50.31
5.17
2.08
4.88

Vulnerabilities have emerged in


Vietnams growth model in recent years
around high inflation, access to credit,
and payment risks. Structural reforms
are needed to avoid exacerbating these
problems, and the countrys dependence
on trade is not helping as demand slows
in its key export markets. South China
Sea tensions are not improving the
business environment, but GDP growth
is expected to remain robust.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


Bangladesh
Sadharan Bima Corporation
33, Dilkusha C/A, Dhaka-1000
Email: head-office@sbc.gov.bd
Website: www.sbc.gov.bd

India
Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC)
10th Floor, Express Towers, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021, India
Tel:
(+91) 22 66590500 / 09
Fax:
(+91) 22 66590517
Email: webmaster@ecgc.in
Website: www.ecgc.in

Export Import Bank of India (I-Eximbank)


Centre One, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai 400 005, India
Tel:
(+91) 22 2218 5272
Fax:
(+91) 22 2218 2572
Email: cag@eximbankindia.com
Website: www.eximbankindia.com

Indonesia
PT. Asuransi Ekspor Indonesia (Persero) Asuransi ASEI
Menara Kadin Indonesia Building, 22nd Floor,
Jl. H R. Rasuna Said X-5 Kav. 2-3, Jakarta 12950 Indonesia
Tel:
+62 21 5790 3535
Fax:
+62 21 5790 4031/32
Email: asei@asei.co.id / bu-asei@asei.co.id
Website: www.asei.co.id

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

85

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Malaysia
Export-Import Bank of Malaysia Berhad (Exim Bank)
8th Floor, UBN Tower, No. 10, Jalan P. Ramlee,
P.O. Box 13028, 50796 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Tel :
+60 3-2034 6666
Fax :
+60 3-2034 6699
Website: www.exim.com.my

Pakistan
Pakistan Re-Insurance Company
PRC Towers, 32-A Lalazar Drive, Moulvi Tamizuddin Khan Road,
PO Box 4777, Karachi, Pakistan
Tel:
(+92) 21 920 2908-14
Fax:
(+92) 21 920 2921/2
Website: www.pakre.org.pk

Philippines
Philippine Export-Import Credit Agency
17th Floor, Citibank Tower, Citibank Plaza,Valero St.,
Makati City, 1226 Philippines
Tel:
(632) 885-4700
Fax:
(632) 848-7307
Email: jrricafrente@philexim.gov.ph
Website: www.philexim.gov.ph

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Export Credit Insurance Corporation (SLECIC)
Level 4, Export Guarantee House, No 42 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
Tel:
(+94) 4 719410-14 / 5 378 161-65
Fax:
(+94) 4 719400
Email: info@slecic.lk
Website: www.slecic.lk

86

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Thailand
Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Thailand)
EXIM Building, 1193 Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Tel:
(+662) 271 3700, 278 0047, 617 2111
Fax:
(+662) 271 3204
Website: www.exim.go.th

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


Asian Development Bank (ADB)
6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Philippines
Tel:
+ 632 632 4444
Fax:
+ 632 636 2444
Email: information@adb.org, tradefinanceunit@adb.org
Website: www.adb.org

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

87

AUSTRALASIA
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA

Agribusiness, mining, and commodity-related agency finance dominate the trade


finance landscape in Australasia, and the region has seen its share of megaprojects in the
LNG sector. Demand, and a sizeable amount of financing, from Japan and China,
creates an environment for interesting deal structures and landmark transactions.
SMBCs Global Trade Finance Network has a presence in Sydney. For more
information see the SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
Australasia: An EFIC perspective Dougal Crawford, senior economist at EFIC
The New Zealand exporting environment: An NZECO perspective Chris Chapman,
Rebecca Holleman and Tim Robertson, NZECO
Country profiles
Australia
New Zealand
Agency contact details

88

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

AUSTRALASIA

Australasia: An EFIC perspective


By Dougal Crawford

2012 in review
Australasia grew by over 3% in 2012, the fastest pace of growth since 2007 (Figure 1).
However, underneath the aggregate number the year was a tale of two halves. Growth
was strong in the first half, pushed along by high commodity prices and reconstruction
following natural disasters in 2011. In the second half, growth slowed sharply, as the
outlook for the world economy weakened, the currency remained high, and domestic
confidence slumped.
The regions exports actually fell over 2012 on the back of lower commodity prices
(Figure 2). In the case of iron ore and coal Australias two main exports prices fell
quite sharply. With projects battling rising costs and a still high exchange rate, some
mining companies scaled back investment plans and closed high cost mines. Overall,
though, resource investment remained very strong, as work on the large pipelines of
LNG projects in Australia and PNG continued. In fact, Australasia was the worlds largest
project finance market in 2012 with US$42 billion worth of financing committed.
Activity in Australasias manufactured and service industries remained very subdued
throughout 2012. Interestingly, the fall in commodity prices and lower domestic
interest rates was not matched by weaker currencies, so resource and non-resource

Figure 1: Australias GDP growth

Sources: IMF, RBA, RBNZ

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

89

AUSTRALASIA

Figure 2: Prices for key Australasian commodities

Sources: ANZ, EFIC, World Bank

exporters alike struggled. The weak demand and persistently high dollar is leading to a
re-evaluation of business strategies for some exporters. Some are buying new
equipment, others restructuring or closing, still others outsourcing and offshoring.

The year ahead


In recent months, optimism about 2013 has risen, although this reflects confidence in
the outlook rather than in current activity which is soft. In particular, financial strains
in the eurozone have abated, the US has avoided driving off the fiscal cliff , and China

Figure 3: Value of advanced major mining projects

Source: BREE

90

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

AUSTRALASIA
seems to have achieved a soft landing. Commodity prices have also firmed. Reflecting
the higher optimism, risk spreads have narrowed, funding conditions have improved,
and equity markets have rallied strongly.
Pronouncements that the regions resource boom is 'over' are premature. Yes,
commodity prices have rolled over and resource investment is nearing its peak. But
prices are still very high compared to historical averages and the pipeline of projects
with committed financiers and customers is a large one $260 billion in Australia
alone. Besides, as the investment boom comes off, an export boom will get underway.
According to the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, the Australian
governments official forecasting agency, the investment boom could triple the volume
of mineral and energy exports by 2020.
The outlook for Asia which consumes 70% of Australasian exports looks relatively
good. The growth slowdown through most of 2012 appeared to bottom late in the
year. Trade, production, and capital flows have strengthened and China grew by nearly
8% yoy in the December quarter of 2012, up from 7.4% yoy in the September quarter.
Meanwhile, the Japanese authorities have recently announced more aggressive
monetary and fiscal policy to try and kick start growth and escape deflation.
As good as all this sounds, 2013 will not be without risk. First, more still needs to be
done to put public and private finances on a sustainable path in the North Atlantic. In
particular, budget negotiations in the US remain hostage to partisan politics, while the
political and economic costs of prolonged austerity could prove too great for the
hardest hit countries in the eurozone. Second, while Chinese growth has stabilised, the
economys underpinnings remain dangerously unbalanced and too heavily reliant on
investment. Finally, local currencies could prove to be less of a shock absorber to
changing external conditions than in the past, leaving exports more exposed to any
worsening in external demand.

About EFIC
Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (EFIC) provides tailored finance solutions to help
Australian businesses overcome the financial barriers they face when expanding their export activities.
As the Australian Governments export credit agency, we help Australian-based businesses to win
and finance export, offshore investment and onshore export-related opportunities when their
bank is unable to provide all the support they need.
We work directly with businesses and their banks to provide loans, guarantees, bonds and
insurance products which can be tailored to meet the needs of both large and small enterprises.
EFIC is uniquely placed to do this: we have over 50 years of export finance and industry expertise,
contacts at financial institutions around the globe, the strength of our AAA credit rating and an
entrepreneurial business approach to make export and eligible
export-related deals happen.
We practise responsible lending and uphold social and
environmental best practice in the transactions we support.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

91

AUSTRALASIA

The New Zealand exporting environment:


An NZECO perspective
By Chris Chapman, Rebecca Holleman and Tim Robertson, NZECO

Similar to experiences across advanced economies, the last four years has been a
challenging time for New Zealand businesses. However New Zealand's exports have
been affected to a lesser degree than many other countries, in the four years to March
2012, New Zealands goods exports grew at an average rate of 5.6%. This is partly
because of New Zealands dependence on primary commodity exports which remain
in demand, and because the main market for manufactured exports, Australia, has also
been less affected by the global financial crisis.
New Zealands diversification of its export markets also helped offset the impacts of
the global financial crisis. For example, forty years ago over two thirds of all New
Zealand exports were directed solely to Europe and North America. When the global
financial crisis hit in 2008, less than a quarter of New Zealands total exports were
being exported to these two markets.
New Zealand currently generates around 30% of its GDP from exports, which is lower
than the 40-50% ratios of GDP for similar-sized OECD countries. New Zealands
exports remain predominately driven by land-based, low-value commodities.
However, opportunities exist for companies to leverage off New Zealands agricultural
and food-safe reputation, and to expand into higher-value food and beverage goods to
meet increasing consumer demand. New Zealand exporters have increased their focus
around the Pacific Rim countries and in particular the rapidly growing middle classes
in emerging Asian countries.
Export opportunities are also facilitated by improving trade access via free trade
agreements. Nearly half of New Zealands exports currently go to countries with
which New Zealand has a free trade agreement and this percentage is expected to
grow as new trade agreements are negotiated. As an example, New Zealand exports to
China have increased by 160% since a free trade agreement was signed in 2008.
Two key constraints on the growth of New Zealand exporting companies often relate
to their relative small size due to a small domestic market, and secondly, the distance to
their foreign markets which increases transport and market development costs.This is
demonstrated in the illustration below which shows 94% of New Zealands exporters
have annual earnings of $5 million or less.

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A key challenge for these small companies is having the financial strength to begin
exporting. The upfront costs of travelling from New Zealand to an international
market and developing an in-market presence can quickly eat into a smaller companys
capital reserves.
Upon finalising an export sale, many New Zealand firms then need to secure
additional capital to produce the quantities that are required by a larger market, as well
as finance the extended credit terms that international buyers are increasingly
demanding.
One way to address this challenge of scale is via collaboration amongst New Zealand
exporters by pooling resources, sharing costs and experiences.There are recent examples
of such collaborative success by firms in New Zealands wine and seafood sectors.
Many New Zealand exporters focus on innovative, niche products and bespoke
solutions. Others are looking to establish themselves into global and regional supply
chains, often focusing on providing design expertise and intellectual property. As an
example, export revenue from specialist ICT for the health and hospital sectors has
been growing. All these products and services typically have higher margins which
help make the fixed costs of exporting from New Zealand easier to overcome.
Over the last two years the New Zealand dollar has remained at historically higher
levels against the US dollar and euro, and this has adversely affected the
competitiveness of many New Zealand exporters. One driver for New Zealands high

New Zealand exports (to June 2011)

Source: New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

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93

AUSTRALASIA
dollar has been the high demand
and relative prices for New
Zealands largest exports namely
dairy, meat, wood, and mineral
fuels. For example, export values
for dairy products have risen by
over 60% since 2009. International
demand for these commodities
(particularly from Asias emerging
economies) is forecast to continue
in the medium term, and the New
Zealand dollar is expected to
remain higher as well. This may be
positive for exporters who import
significant part of their export
inputs. However, it may mean exporters have to deal with quality issues from offshore
suppliers, and longer supply lead times requiring greater working capital facilities.

Like many other countries,


New Zealand Inc continues to
develop and execute strategies to
increase goods and services
exports with an aspirational target
of 40% exports to GDP by 2025.

Over this same period the Australian dollar has also significantly strengthened and this
has provided opportunities for New Zealand exporters to be increasingly competitive
when doing business with its closest neighbour and largest export market.
Like many other countries, New Zealand Inc continues to develop and execute
strategies to increase goods and services exports with an aspirational target of 40%
exports to GDP by 2025. Strategies include sustainably increasing productivity across a
variety of sectors, continued international market development, bi-lateral and multilateral free trade agreements, notably with those countries that have growing middle
classes who demand food. Underpinning the 40% target and direct export actions is
work on addressing New Zealands capital markets constraints, innovation and
regulation. However at the end of the day, exporters with growth aspirations,
marketable products and the capacity to execute are required to sell their solutions to
realise New Zealand targets.

About NZECO
The New Zealand Export Credit Office (NZECO) provides financial guarantee and trade credit
insurance products for New Zealand exporters, banks and insurers. Our products help exporters
manage risk and capitalise on trade opportunities around the globe, by enabling them to mitigate credit
risk, offer buyers payment terms and access trade finance.
NZECO is currently located in the Treasury and obligations to third parties are guaranteed by the
New Zealand government through the Minister of Finance.
NZECO's products are intended to extend the capacity of facilities in the private sector. The
Government's maximum liability under the scheme is NZD 740 million.
Contact NZECO on: eco@treasury.govt.nz or +64 4 917 6060

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COUNTRY PROFILE

Australia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.5
1,244.4
14.2
5.5
14.9
9.7
5.2
22.2
31.8
20.5
-35.7
-2.9

2011
2.1
1,486.9
11.4
-1.2
21.5
11.8
5.1
22.4
32.0
24.2
-33.5
-2.3

2012
3.3
1,542.1
7.1
4.3
22.6
11.1
5.2
22.7
33.6
27.1
-63.0
-4.1

2013
3.0
1,598.1
6.1
3.9
23.7
11.6
5.3
23.0
34.3
27.2
-87.9
-5.5

2014
3.2
1,638.9
5.4
5.5
23.3
11.5
5.2
23.3
34.5
26.4
-99.6
-6.1

2015
3.3
1,679.7
4.3
5.3
22.7
11.3
5.1
23.5
34.6
24.7
-100.9
-6.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$48,168 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

81.1
82.14 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.7
6.9
7.9
7.4
7.5
74.69
9.3
8.6
8.9
9.1
8.2
7.6
86.27
8
7.7
7.8
6.57
75.02
6.13
10
9.17

2011
7.6
6.9
7.7
7.3
7.3
73.5
9.3
8.5
8.9
9.1
7.9
7.7
85.59
7.7
7.4
7.64
6.59
73.53
7.52
9.79
9.75

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

While Australia is still forecast to grow


at 3% in 2013 by the IMF, this was
lowered from 3.5% due to the countrys
direct exposure to slowing growth in
China, the US and Europe through its
extensive mining sector exports.With a
21-year streak without a recession and
unemployment below 6% the economy
remains strong.

95

COUNTRY PROFILE

New Zealand
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.8
140.1
10.6
3.5
4.5
1.5
6.5
4.4
29.3
32.5
-4.8
-3.5

2011
1.3
158.9
6.5
1.7
6.2
2.0
6.5
4.4
29.1
38.2
-6.6
-4.2

2012
2.2
166.9
4.5
3.6
6.7
1.6
6.6
4.5
29.5
38.6
-9.0
-5.4

2013
3.1
174.0
6.0
3.8
6.5
1.5
5.7
4.5
29.5
38.1
-10.2
-5.9

2014
2.7
179.1
5.4
3.7
6.4
1.5
5.1
4.6
30.0
37.9
-11.8
-6.6

2015
2.6
184.8
3.1
2.6
6.4
1.4
4.7
4.6
30.2
36.1
-12.7
-6.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$17,583 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

80.63
82.33 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

96

2012
8.1
6.2
7.7
6.6
6.3
69.56
9.6
9.3
9.4
9.1
7.9
8.3
89.39
8.6
7.8
7.47
8.19
80.22
6
9.17
9.75

2011
8.1
6.1
7.6
6.6
5.8
68.5
9.7
9.2
9.3
9.1
8
8.5
89.73
8.5
7.9
7.46
8.15
79.94
7.52
9.58
9.75

New Zealands economy is on track to


grow by 3.1% in 2013 according to
IMF forecasts, twice the level of some
other advanced economies; however a
portion of the growth can be attributed
to recovery and reconstruction from the
Christchurch earthquake. Nevertheless,
even with a slowing China as its second
largest trading partner, the economy has
been relatively shielded from the global
slowdown.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Export Credit Agencies


Australia
Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (EFIC)
Export House, Level 10,
22 Pitt Street,
Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
Tel:
(+61) 2 9201 2111
Fax:
(+61) 2 9251 3851
Email: info@efic.gov.au
Website: www.efic.gov.au

New Zealand
The New Zealand Export Credit Office (NZECO)
No 1 The Terrace
PO Box 3724
Wellington
New Zealand
Tel:
(+64) 4 917 6060
Fax:
(+64) 4 917 6956
Email: eco@treasury.govt.nz
Website: www.nzeco.govt.nz

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97

FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR GLOBAL TRADE

www.tradefinancemagazine.com

Bringing you all the latest


on the trade, commodity,
export and supply chain
finance

> News and analysis get the daily online trade finance coverage on the sectors and
global regions that interest you.
> ECA newsletter view the latest export credit agency transactions, most active
ECAs, ECA debt arrangers and industry sectors.
> Archive browse through the content dating back to 1999.
> Awards for Excellence see the best performing trade finance institutions as voted
by the industry.
> Deals of the Year get the most comprehensive review of the best deals of the year
in trade, supply chain, commodity and export finance.
> Supplements and directories key industry trends and contacts all in one place.
> Trade Finance events network with your peers at the biggest industry events
across the globe throughout the course of the year.

Visit www.tradefinancemagazine.com
For more information please contact us on +44 (0) 207 779 8999
or email hotline@euromoneyplc.com

EUROPE
THE MIDDLE EAST
AND AFRICA

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99

COMMODITY FINANCE EMEA

Commodity Finance EMEA strong demand


from a buoyant market
By John Turnbull, Joint General Manager, Global Head of Structured Trade & Commodity
Finance for GTFD

GTFD Commodity Finance in the EMEA region continues to see strong demand in
the still buoyant commodities market. In particular, demand for raw materials from
China remains at a high, despite recent indications that the Chinese economy may at
last be starting to slow down. SMBC recently made a very significant increase in the
level and diversity of its Chinese risk cover in order to meet existing and future
customers expectations for sales risk cover even more strongly than in the past.
Being able to meet customers requirements for sales risk mitigation also strengthens
SMBCs ability to finance the initial purchase, thereby enabling the bank to support a
deal through its life cycle. This provides a more complete service to the customer, and
allows the bank to have a full overview of the transaction and the opportunity to
provide ancillary services such as hedging and freight loans, over and above the finance
attached to the goods purchase and sale. In order to develop this area of risk mitigation
still further, Commodity Finance has successfully expanded its range of other types of
sales risk coverage tools through the provision of Payment Guarantee and Payment
Receivables discounting lines.
We continue to market our uncommitted bilateral trade finance lines to a wide range
of leading international traders, and to the trading subsidiaries of the larger banks and
integrated energy groups, and to cover the full range of commodity finance markets
including energy, metals & mining, and agribusiness. The bilateral lines managed from
Commodity Finance in London now stand at several billion US dollars. We also take
significant participations in selected committed facilities in 2012 we became a
participant for the first time in Glencores $2.22 billion Borrowing Base Facility, at the
Mandated Lead Arranger level of $150 million.
We consider our ability to provide a one stop service to our clients to be a key element
in maintaining the banks excellent reputation in this market.

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The partial withdrawal of some banks from the commodity finance market as a result
of the turmoil in the Eurozone has opened up more opportunities for SMBC, which it
has been and continues exploiting.
2012 was not without its challenges
and in line with the introduction of
enhanced anti-money laundering
and financial crime regulations,
GTFD, along with the rest of the
bank, has greatly strengthened its
compliance capabilities in order to
meet the demands of the
increasingly
rigorous
global
regulatory environment.

Because of its focus on


uncommitted, short-term
business, GTFD Commodity
Finance within SMBC has the
flexibility and global reach to
meet what will no doubt be a
challenging business environment
in 2013.

GTFD Commodity Finance is


headquartered in London, as part of
SMBCs Europe, Middle East and
Africa (EMEA) region. However,
commodity trading is, by its very
nature, an international business
and in order to fully support its
customers requirements, the GTFD product group within SMBC is organised on a
global, rather than a regional, basis.
In addition to London there are commodity finance specialists in SMBCs offices in
Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong, New York and Sao Paulo, with GTFD
representatives in many other locations. There is a constant liaising between these
offices, which enables the bank to provide a complete service over the different
international time zones. Given the size and range of our customers activities, their
requirements sometimes reach beyond the range of purely commodity finance
business, and in these instances we can utilise the expertise of other GTFD areas, such
as structured finance, or those of SMBC as a whole, such as the corporate, shipping or
treasury areas.
Because of its focus on uncommitted, short-term business, GTFD Commodity
Finance within SMBC has the flexibility and global reach to meet what will no doubt
be a challenging business environment in 2013.

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101

EUROPE
AND THE CIS

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM

London remains one of the pre-eminent centres of trade and commodity finance, and
insurance, reaching beyond the European Union into markets in Eastern Europe,
Russia, the CIS, and beyond into the wider EMEA region and other markets globally.
SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has offices in London, Paris, Milan and
Dusseldorf, and the network includes Moscow. For more information see the SMBC
Global Directory.

Contents
Trade Finance in Eastern Europe and the CIS: A review of 2012 and forecast for 2013
Rudolf Putz, Head Trade Facilitation Programme (TFP), and Marco Nindl, Associate Banker,
TFP at the EBRD (with reference to the EBRDs Transition Report 2012)
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development: a long-term capital
partner in an uncertain environment Lorenz Jorgensen, Director, Head of Loan
Syndications, EBRD
Country profiles
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany

102

Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia

Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Agency contact details

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EUROPE AND THE CIS

Trade Finance in Eastern Europe and the CIS:


A review of 2012 and forecast for 2013
By Rudolf Putz, Head Trade Facilitation Programme (TFP), and Marco Nindl,Associate Banker,
TFP at the EBRD (with reference to the EBRDs Transition Report 2012)

Over the course of 2012, trade finance in Eastern Europe and the CIS has been
characterised by the on-going consequences of the Eurozone crisis. What initially
started in the second half of 2011, where foreign commercial banks started to reduce
the availability of trade finance particularly for smaller and medium-sized banks
continued in 2012 without any signs of easing.
Owing to the limited availability of trade finance limits, general export and import
volumes were subdued in many countries. Countries in Eastern and South-Eastern
Europe which are particularly integrated with the Eurozone area were hardest hit, as
Eurozone banks reduced cross-border lending and withdrew financing from their
subsidiaries in the region, with a corresponding impact on trade finance volume and
the ability to finance international trade. Also the cautious lending approach of western
commercial banks towards importers and banks in Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
continued, due to on-going political or economic instabilities.
Successfully steering through stormy market conditions, the Baltic states reported a
growth in their trade finance volumes, particularly on the export side which can be
seen as a result of economic reforms and persistently higher productivity relative to
pre-2008 levels. At the same time resource-rich countries such as Mongolia and Russia
continued to report significant demand for import of machinery and investment
goods.
Positive was the 2012 acceptance of Montenegro and Russia to the World Trade
Organisation which will help to reduce trade finance barriers and facilitate the general
trade finance flow with these countries notwithstanding the difficult market
circumstances. A positive development of trade integration of certain CIS countries is

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EUROPE AND THE CIS


also noted with the 2009 established Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and
Belarus.
One of the major successes of the Customs Union is the overall increase of trade
finance between union members: this increased by around 70% between 2009 and
2011, and facilitated trade through the removal of internal border controls, bringing
multiple benefits such as increased potential market size and the promotion of crossborder production cycles within Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
Further countries of the CIS region are expected to join the Customs Union which, as
illustrated by the example of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, would support trade
within the union and potentially provide further opportunities of increased trade
finance outside the union, specifically for smaller sized economies in Central Asia or
the Caucasus, where access to international trade finance remains restricted for the
foreseeable future.
Owing to the lack of available trade finance limit and the cautious approach of most
foreign commercial banks and export credit agencies towards local banks in Eastern
Europe and the CIS region, particularly smaller and regional private banks in Russia
and other CIS countries continued to request support under the EBRD Trade
Facilitation Programme (TFP).
The TFP aims to promote foreign trade to, from and within Central and Eastern
Europe and the CIS as well as in the recently added EBRD recipient countries of
Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. Through the programme, the EBRD provides
guarantees to international confirming banks and factoring companies, taking the
political and commercial payment risk of international trade transactions undertaken
by banks in the countries of operations and the recipient countries (the issuing banks).
The programme can guarantee any genuine trade transaction to, from and within these
countries of operations. 104 issuing banks and factoring companies in the region
participate in the programme with limits exceeding a1 billion. In addition, the TFP
includes over 600 confirming banks throughout the world.
In 2012 the programme facilitated a record number of more than 1,800 trade
transactions for a total of a1.1 billion. TFP cover was particularly important for trade
finance transactions with larger amounts and longer tenors in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine,
and Kazakhstan, while in smaller countries such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and
Armenia the TFP supported a higher number of small transactions with very short
tenors, underlining particular support through the Programme for SME sized
exporters and importers. In Armenia, for example, the average transaction amount was
only EUR 130,000 and the average tenor less than 180 days.
Intra-regional transactions within EBRDs countries of operation have long been a
major focus of the TFP; and recent examples include the export of foodstuffs from

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Ukraine to Azerbaijan, machinery from Lithuania to Belarus and consumer goods
from Turkey to Russia. In 2012 the programme facilitated a record of more than 450
such intra-regional trade transactions.
In addition to risk cover, the TFP provides technical assistance to banks with very
limited or no trade finance experience. These banks often lack not only the necessary
technical skills to execute documentary and structured trade-finance transactions but
also have difficulty in promoting trade-finance solutions to their customers.
Technical assistance is provided in the form of consultancy service and classroom-style
training courses on topics such as UCP 600 rules, URDG rules or correspondent
banking. In addition to classical types of technical assistance the EBRD has developed
an online training course in cooperation with the International Chamber of
Commerce (ICC) covering all of the ICC international trade-finance products and
Incoterm rules. The study programme is flexible and can be accessed for 12 months
from the date of subscription. On completion of a training module, a student can
request an ICC certificate of achievement for each module indicating the highest
score achieved in each course assessment. Since the launch more than 300 trade
specialists from over 80 banks across EBRD region have taken part in such e-Learning
Programme.
All the above mechanisms and efforts of the TFP will continue in 2013 to assist partner
banks and exporters and importers in their trade finance activities, whose economic
outlook continues to be driven by developments in the Eurozone crises and its global
repercussions, including its impact on commodity prices.
Taking into account that many foreign commercial banks and their subsidiaries in
Eastern Europe and the CIS will have to further increase their capital or reduce their
lending also in the light of new Basel III regulations, it is expected that the overall
volume of available trade finance facilities will shrink in 2013 as the cost of trade
finance continues to increase.

Rudolf Putz
Head Trade Facilitation Programme
European Bank for Reconstruction & Development
Tel: +44 20 7338 7776
putzr@ebrd.com
www.ebrd.com/tfp

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and


Development: a long-term capital partner in
an uncertain environment
By Lorenz Jorgensen, Director, Head of Loan Syndications, EBRD

The operating environment


The region in which the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD) operates1 is showing signs of recovery and excellent growth potential.
Following a prolonged period of falling GDP growth accompanied by sluggish foreign
direct investment (FDI), and in some cases, capital flight, there are signs that the
economic fundamentals of the region (on the whole) are improving. Although growth
is slowing in the EBRD region, growth rates remain better there than in much of the
Eurozone. Capital flows have mostly returned, although Russia still suffers from capital
flight. Public debt, while still high, is generally considerably lower than in the
Eurozone. On the whole, unit labour costs are still largely competitive. Whilst bank
deleveraging in the region is continuing, banks are striving successfully to replace
foreign funding with local deposits.
Some major countries in the region have made great strides in the World Banks
Doing Business rankings2. Poland, for example, was the global top improver in the
World Banks survey, having enhanced the ease of doing business by making it simpler
to register property; pay taxes; enforce contracts; and resolve insolvency. Similarly, other
countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia soared to the top of the list of those
economies enjoying improvements in obtaining credit. Reforms across the region are
set to continue, which will provide an added impetus to growth.
While some countries still lag behind badly in terms of corruption indices and
measurements, other countries (including Croatia and Romania) are taking strong
steps to stamp out corruption by prosecuting and imprisoning public officials.
Notwithstanding the above strengths, many challenges remain. The region remains less
attractive relative to other emerging markets, such as Latin America or Asia. FDI
remains very uneven, with a very high natural resources concentration. Corporate
investment programmes are tentative and hesitant, owing to uncertainty in their own

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EUROPE AND THE CIS


domestic markets. Infrastructure investment, which is badly needed, is also suffering as
a result of constrained public finances (except in Russia) and a lack of properly
prepared investment projects. The needs in this area alone are vast. In Turkey alone,
total infrastructure investment needs are projected to grow from approximately USD
20 billion in 2012 to USD 55 billion in 2020, in order to meet the investment needs in
areas such as electricity generation and waste water treatment.

The EBRDs response to the crisis


As part of the initial endorsement of the EBRDs crisis response role, the Banks (at
that time) 63 governmental shareholders approved a capital increase at the EBRDs
annual meeting in 2010. This represented both a desire and an expectation by the
Banks shareholders that the EBRD
would be a part of the solution in
terms of maintaining credit and
investment flows in the region.

Following a prolonged period of


falling GDP growth accompanied
by sluggish foreign direct
investment (FDI), and in some
cases, capital flight, there are
signs that the economic
fundamentals of the region (on
the whole) are improving.

In the initial years of the crisis, the


most significant and important
crisis response was the Vienna
Initiative, which represented a cooperation between the EBRD,
EIB, IMF and World Bank to
provide a25 billion in funding to
the subsidiaries of western banks in
the EBRD region, with the
conditionality that those western
parent banks would remain
engaged in the region.

More recently, the EBRD, EIB and


World Bank have announced the
Joint IFI Action Plan for Recovery for Central and South-Eastern Europe,
representing a joint investment pledge of more than EUR 30 billion for the period
2013-14.
Thus the EBRDs approach during the crisis has continued to evolve, with strategies
to address industrial and corporate funding challenges as well as financial institutions.
For industrials, the greatest challenge is for corporates further down the credit curve,
i.e. non-blue chips. For them, there is limited bank loan availability and limited state
capacity (except in Russia). Companies have to rely more on their own cash flow
(which is harder in a recession).

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EUROPE AND THE CIS


In financial institutions, the EBRD has committed more than US$15 billion since the
onset of the crisis. The priority is to tackle the legacy of the crisis, and the EBRDs
speciality products include equity, credit lines for SME on-lending, and energy
efficiency credit lines. The EBRD is also at the forefront of new instruments, such as
supporting platforms to acquire and manage non-performing loans (NPLs), as well as
risk-sharing mechanisms to provide capital relief.
The EBRD is playing an important role in the area of balance sheet restructuring, and,
in particular, in pre-distress restructuring.The EBRD can help to resolve currency and
maturity mismatches on corporate balance sheets, by providing longer tenors and by
funding in local currencies. Furthermore, the EBRD can provide equity and thus help
companies to deleverage. A common requirement is the need for an honest broker in
creditor co-ordination, and the EBRD is in a position to play this role at the same time
as providing capital.

Partnering with the EBRD


As a multilateral development bank (MDB), the EBRD exists to facilitate business and
to help the private sector invest in the countries where it operates (Central and Eastern
Europe, CIS, Turkey, Mongolia, and the countries of the Southern and Eastern
Mediterranean (Morocco,Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan).
The EBRD has a AAA/Aaa/AAA rating (Standard and Poor; Moody; Fitch) with a
stable outlook. It has a core tier one equity ratio of 25% and is 0% Basel risk-weighted.
With 66 national and supranational shareholders, it operates through 38 local offices,

Chart 1: EBRD net cumulative volume by country

108

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EUROPE AND THE CIS


with seven offices in Russia3 alone, the EBRD is the single largest investor in the
private sector in the region, providing a full suite of instruments from senior debt
through to equity.
The EBRD provides financing partners with the opportunity to co-finance high
quality projects. The EBRD applies sound banking to all of its investments, respecting
the need to remain complementary to the private sector, whilst achieving high
transition and demonstration impact through its investments, e.g. in the fields of
corporate governance and integrity, environmental standards, and ensuring reporting
transparency and IAS accounting standards.
The staple co-financing product which the EBRD uses is the A/B loan structure,
whereby the EBRD remains the lender of record for the entire loan amount, with
commercial lenders benefitting from the umbrella of the EBRD. This traditionally
brings comfort in the area of due diligence (commercial, environmental, integrity).
The EBRD track record in B loan portfolio performance is strong with only 0.15%
net write-off rate (after recoveries and write-backs) on a cumulative basis (not per
annum) since the EBRD was founded in 1991.

The co-financing outlook


In the wake of the crisis and with the advent of Basel III, the commercial bank market
is becoming a smaller market in terms of risk appetite for long-dated, unrated credits,
especially where these names are further down the credit curve. The crisis has seen the

Chart 2: EBRD net cumulative volume by sector

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

109

EUROPE AND THE CIS


departure of many portfolio investors who populated the syndicated loan participant
lists pre-crisis, and the problem is one of concentration of a relatively small number of
banks providing the majority of the
funds.

Whilst providing the syndicated


loan market with its greatest
challenges, the crisis may also
provide the market with the
opportunity to align itself with
new sources of funds and
investor classes.

The challenge for all syndicators is


to find alternative sources of
funding. There is a large amount of
liquidity in the pension funds,
insurance companies and university
endowments, as well as the
sovereign wealth funds (SWFs).
These institutions have not been
traditional buyers of unrated loan
assets.

The EBRD is working with a


number of asset managers to
explore structures for capturing
non-traditional sources of funds,
whilst simultaneously working closely with the commercial banks to provide loan
assets which match their investment criteria.
Whilst providing the syndicated loan market with its greatest challenges, the crisis may
also provide the market with the opportunity to align itself with new sources of funds
and investor classes. It will be the ability to meet these challenges and to exploit these
opportunities that will ultimately determine the degree to which smaller and unrated
names can continue to access the syndicated loan market for the tenors necessary to
promote investment and growth.
NOTES
1 EBRD invests in the following countries: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia &
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Egypt, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Jordan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco,
Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia,Tajikistan,Tunisia,Turkey,Turkmenistan,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan
2 www.doingbusiness.org/reports/global-reports/doing-business-2013
3 Moscow, St Petersburg,Yekaterinburg, Samara,Vladivostok, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnoyarsk
Lorenz Jorgensen
Director, Head of Loan Syndications
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Tel: +44 20 7338 6902
jorgensl@ebrd.com
www.ebrd.com/

110

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Belgium
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.4
472.5
7.0
8.5
39.0
27.2
8.3
10.8
48.6
95.6
6.6
1.4

2011
1.8
514.6
4.1
4.6
56.5
39.9
7.2
11.0
49.4
97.8
-5.1
-1.0

2012
0.0
476.8
-0.9
-0.7
51.7
36.7
7.4
11.0
49.8
99.0
-0.6
-0.1

2013
0.3
475.7
0.4
0.5
51.1
36.4
7.9
11.1
50.3
99.4
1.6
0.3

2014
1.0
486.0
1.5
1.5
51.0
36.3
7.7
11.2
50.8
98.6
4.0
0.8

2015
1.3
496.6
3.4
3.2
52.2
37.2
7.5
11.3
50.8
96.5
5.2
1.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$30,776 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

71.99
72.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6
6
7.7
5.7
5.5
61.73
8.7
8
8.1
7.9
7.8
5.1
75.92
7.9
6.3
7.63
7.04
72.23
6.11
8.54
8.83

2011
6
6.1
7.7
5.6
5.3
61.67
8.8
8.1
8.3
8.2
7.9
4.8
76.72
7.9
6.4
7.69
7.05
72.58
6.86
9.38
7

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

As the political centre of the European


Union, the spotlight has been on
Belgium for much of 2012 as the
Eurozone crisis rumbles on. Seen as a
bellwether of the wider union and
heavily dependent on intra-EU trade,
Belgiums economic problems may
slowly begin to recede towards the end
of the year, but growth will remain
anaemic.

111

COUNTRY PROFILE

Bulgaria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
0.4
47.8
-9.7
-0.8
4.5
2.2
10.3
7.5
32.7
14.9
-0.5
-1.0

2011
1.7
53.5
7.1
11.6
5.8
3.0
11.3
7.3
32.4
15.5
0.5
0.9

2012
1.0
50.8
2.6
1.3
6.6
3.3
11.5
7.3
34.4
17.9
-0.2
-0.3

2013
1.5
50.9
2.0
3.5
6.8
3.4
11.0
7.2
34.7
16.4
-0.8
-1.5

2014
2.5
53.4
6.1
6.4
7.4
3.6
10.2
7.2
35.0
18.4
-1.1
-2.1

2015
3.5
56.8
7.6
7.2
8.0
3.8
8.7
7.2
35.4
15.3
-1.8
-3.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$19,604 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

51.23
50.67 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

112

2012
5.6
5.1
6.9
5.3
6.4
58.5
6.5
3.9
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.4
54.74
4.8
4.2
4.67
4.94
46.4
3.31
4.79
4.5

2011
5.6
5
6.7
5.1
6.2
57.06
6.2
3.5
5
4.9
5.1
6.2
51.68
4.5
3.8
4.43
4.63
43.36
3.48
4.79
5.67

Despite being the EUs poorest country,


Bulgaria is strategically placed for the
transit of goods and oil and gas
resources between Asia and Europe, and
the government hopes to capitalise on
this as it recovers from the global
financial crisis. Growth has been slow,
bordering on stagnant at times, but will
likely pick up in 2014 as exports do.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Croatia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
-1.4
59.4
-1.6
5.9
3.7
1.5
12.2
4.4
37.8
42.2
-0.6
-1.1

2011
0.0
62.4
2.0
1.8
4.6
1.6
13.7
4.4
36.8
46.7
-0.6
-1.0

2012
-1.1
57.5
-2.0
0.3
4.6
1.7
14.2
4.4
37.0
54.3
-0.7
-1.2

2013
1.0
58.5
1.8
1.7
4.6
1.7
13.3
4.4
37.1
57.0
-0.8
-1.3

2014
1.5
61.0
3.0
2.9
4.5
1.7
12.8
4.4
37.2
59.4
-0.9
-1.4

2015
2.0
63.8
3.4
3.5
4.4
1.7
12.0
4.4
37.2
61.3
-1.2
-1.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$14,677 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

53.43
54.60 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.7
4
5.1
4.1
4
45.77
6.4
4.7
5.8
5.3
5.6
5.5
55.73
5.9
5.7
5.62
5.12
55.75
7.53
4.38
5.5

2011
5.3
4.3
5.5
4
4.1
46.27
6.2
4.6
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.5
55.17
5.8
6.3
5.46
5.19
56.8
7.44
4.38
6.67

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Croatias EU accession treaty was finally


signed in December 2011, after many
years of negotiations, and it was hoped
that it signalled a new start for the
country given the impact that the global
financial crisis of 2008-9 had on the
economy. Unfortunately the knock-on
effect of the Eurozone crisis pushed
Croatia back into recession and a
recovery will be slow.

113

COUNTRY PROFILE

Czech Republic
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.7
197.7
16.0
16.4
9.7
4.1
7.3
10.5
39.3
37.6
-7.6
-3.8

2011
1.7
215.2
7.5
11.0
12.1
4.9
6.7
10.5
40.3
40.5
-6.3
-3.0

2012
-1.0
193.5
1.2
4.0
16.1
6.1
7.0
10.6
40.3
43.1
-4.6
-2.4

2013
0.8
192.6
3.4
3.2
16.3
6.2
8.0
10.6
41.0
45.0
-4.1
-2.2

2014
2.8
198.1
5.2
5.2
16.2
6.2
7.9
10.6
41.2
45.6
-4.0
-2.0

2015
3.4
205.1
5.2
5.2
16.0
5.9
7.2
10.6
41.2
45.7
-4.2
-2.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$44,761 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

69.67
71.07 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

114

2012
7.7
5.2
7.4
6.2
6.1
65.25
8
6
7.4
7.1
7.3
6.5
70.69
7.1
5.4
6.79
6.79
65.11
7.33
7.71
7.33

2011
7.6
5.8
7.4
6.1
6.1
66
7.9
6.1
7.3
7.3
7.3
6.6
71.08
7.2
5.5
6.85
6.76
65.79
7.18
7.29
9

The Czech Republic slid into recession


as exports to Eurozone countries fell
and an austerity drive cut government
spending, but its position at the heart
of Europe, and strong ties to the
German economy bode well for the
longer term. However, low growth will
remain for 2013.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Denmark
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.3
312.0
3.5
3.2
9.1
13.6
7.5
5.5
53.6
42.9
17.2
5.5

2011
0.8
332.0
5.3
7.0
9.1
13.6
6.1
5.6
54.8
44.1
22.2
6.7

2012
0.5
309.2
3.0
2.2
9.1
13.6
5.6
5.6
54.3
47.1
15.5
5.0

2013
1.2
308.4
5.1
4.1
9.1
13.6
5.3
5.6
54.4
47.6
14.1
4.6

2014
1.8
314.4
3.8
3.7
9.1
13.6
4.5
5.6
52.1
47.8
14.2
4.5

2015
1.8
321.1
3.8
3.7
9.1
13.6
3.8
5.6
52.1
47.9
14.7
4.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$89,737 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

82.64
85.36 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.7
6.2
7.6
7.5
7.3
70.45
9.3
9.1
8.8
9.1
8.5
8.8
89.47
8.7
7.6
8.78
8.37
83.73
6.95
10
9.35

2011
7.3
6.6
7.9
7.8
7
73.11
9.4
9.4
9.1
9.2
8.6
8.7
90.71
8.8
7.7
8.79
8.18
83.72
8.10
10
9.75

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

The Danish economy remains stagnant


as its main driver, consumer spending, is
low despite record low interest rates.
The government thinks that 2013 will
see a turnaround for the economy, with
growth building up over the year. Being
dragged down by the Eurozone has seen
opposition grow to any deeper
participation in Europe.

115

COUNTRY PROFILE

Finland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.3
237.2
6.9
7.5
9.3
5.1
8.4
5.4
53.0
48.6
3.4
1.4

2011
2.7
263.5
5.0
2.0
14.0
7.1
7.8
5.4
53.9
49.1
-3.1
-1.2

2012
0.2
247.2
-1.5
-1.5
14.6
7.5
7.6
5.4
53.0
52.6
-4.0
-1.6

2013
1.3
252.2
2.3
1.6
14.9
7.6
7.8
5.5
53.7
53.9
-4.2
-1.7

2014
2.1
262.9
5.2
4.8
14.9
7.6
7.7
5.5
54.2
54.1
-4.2
-1.6

2015
2.0
272.9
5.2
5.3
14.9
7.6
7.7
5.5
54.3
53.6
-4.2
-1.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$11,161 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

84.54
85.10 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

116

2012
8.4
7.5
7.7
7
7.7
76.42
9.2
8.9
8.7
9
8.5
8.9
88.69
8.3
6.6
8.52
7.6
77.56
7.54
10
9.7

2011
8.5
7.4
7.5
6.7
7.5
75.36
9.3
9.1
8.8
9.1
8.5
8.7
89.09
8.5
6.6
8.52
7.79
78.48
7.92
10
10

Finland is one of the brighter spots in


the European Union, with solid
purchasing power in the countrys chief
export markets, comparatively low
unemployment rates, and a AAA credit
rating.The continuing uncertainty in
the global economy has seen businesses
investing less, but GDP growth is
starting to pick up.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

France
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.7
2,570.6
8.9
9.6
35.3
0.1
9.7
62.8
49.5
82.3
-40.0
-1.6

2011
1.7
2,778.1
4.9
5.3
46.5
0.1
9.6
63.1
50.8
86.0
-54.2
-2.0

2012
0.1
2,580.4
1.2
2.3
45.8
0.1
10.1
63.4
51.5
90.0
-44.8
-1.7

2013
0.4
2,565.6
1.6
1.2
43.3
0.1
10.5
63.7
52.6
92.1
-43.3
-1.7

2014
1.1
2,621.6
2.5
2.8
42.1
0.1
10.3
64.0
52.6
92.9
-41.0
-1.6

2015
1.5
2,696.9
2.7
4.0
41.1
0.1
9.8
64.3
52.6
92.3
-31.1
-1.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$189,580 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

72.6
76.10 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.3
5
7
5
5
56.69
8.5
7.3
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.5
76.65
7.4
6.7
8.46
6.46
72.56
6.02
9.79
9.54

2011
6.8
5.4
7.2
5.7
5.5
61.2
8.6
7.5
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.5
78.34
7.4
6.7
8.52
6.94
73.96
6.58
10
10

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

There is little good news for France in


the business pages at the start of 2013,
with unemployment continuing to rise,
and government debt continuing to
grow. Despite being considered as part
of the northern Eurozone states, rather
than one of the Mediterranean
countries associated with the crisis,
increasingly it looks like Frances
problems are much larger than they
once appeared. GDP growth will
remain low throughout 2013.

117

COUNTRY PROFILE

Germany
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.0
3,312.2
11.1
13.7
83.9
4.6
7.1
81.8
43.6
82.4
199.9
6.0

2011
3.1
3,607.4
7.4
7.8
93.6
6.1
6.0
81.8
44.5
80.6
203.9
5.7

2012
0.9
3,366.7
2.8
3.9
100.9
6.2
5.2
81.8
44.5
83.0
182.8
5.4

2013
0.9
3,373.3
3.6
3.1
103.0
6.1
5.3
81.6
44.4
81.5
157.8
4.7

2014
1.4
3,462.0
4.1
3.9
90.6
5.9
5.2
81.5
44.4
79.6
153.2
4.4

2015
1.4
3,548.8
4.1
3.9
86.8
5.6
5.2
81.3
44.3
77.6
154.5
4.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$256,455 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

80.88
82.12 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

118

2012
7
6.8
7.5
7.3
7.3
71.75
9
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.1
7.9
83.75
8.4
6.1
8.68
7.77
77.49
6.73
10
9.75

2011
7.1
7
7.5
7.4
7.2
72.55
9
8.5
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
85.04
8.4
6.4
8.71
7.87
78.48
7.59
10
9.5

As the flagship of the Eurozone


economies, it was unsettling that
Germany ended 2012 with a small
contraction in GDP growth.While
Germany has enjoyed record
employment, low borrowing costs and
export-led growth, in spite of the
Eurozone crisis, its European
neighbours are also its biggest
customers, so the longer the crisis
continues the more difficult the
situation is for Germany.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Hungary
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.3
128.6
12.8
14.3
5.9
0.0
11.2
10.0
45.2
81.3
1.6
1.2

2011
1.7
140.3
6.3
8.4
7.8
0.0
11.0
10.0
52.9
80.6
2.0
1.4

2012
-1.0
128.8
2.9
4.2
7.9
0.0
10.9
10.0
45.8
74.0
3.4
2.6

2013
0.8
134.4
4.7
5.3
7.9
0.0
10.5
9.9
45.1
74.2
3.6
2.7

2014
1.6
139.6
6.1
5.6
7.7
0.0
10.4
9.9
45.3
75.3
0.9
0.7

2015
1.7
145.4
6.3
5.6
7.5
0.0
10.3
9.9
45.4
75.9
-0.9
-0.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$46,977 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

49.47
54.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.3
3.8
4.1
4
3.9
40.32
5.7
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.5
6.6
53.25
5.6
4.5
6.34
5.54
54.95
6.34
3.75
5.83

2011
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.1
3.9
43.24
5.6
4.9
6
5.5
4.7
7.1
56.53
5.6
4.6
6.33
5.61
55.38
7.08
4.38
7.33

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

With a weak currency lowering the cost


of Hungarian exports, there is some
potential for a boost to the economy in
2013, but dependence on trade and
investment ties with Western Europe
mean that a worse than expected
downturn in the Eurozone would be a
significant knock to confidence.

119

COUNTRY PROFILE

Italy
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.8
2,060.9
12.7
11.6
60.9
16.9
8.4
60.3
46.0
118.6
-73.2
-3.6

2011
0.4
2,198.7
0.4
5.6
76.9
22.4
8.4
60.6
46.1
120.1
-71.7
-3.3

2012
-2.3
1,980.4
-7.3
0.6
71.0
22.4
10.6
60.9
48.3
126.3
-29.2
-1.5

2013
-0.7
1,953.8
0.2
1.0
70.2
22.4
11.1
61.1
48.8
127.8
-26.6
-1.4

2014
0.5
1,982.9
1.5
2.5
68.8
22.2
11.3
61.4
48.8
127.3
-26.0
-1.3

2015
1.2
2,023.7
2.9
3.5
68.5
22.2
11.0
61.6
48.8
125.6
-23.5
-1.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$181,683 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

56.88
63.28 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

120

2012
5.5
3.6
7
3.8
4.1
47.94
7.8
4.4
6.1
5.7
6.4
5
58.98
6.7
5.5
6.89
6.03
62.91
6
5.63
6.9

2011
5.4
4
7.1
4.6
4.3
50.71
7.9
4.4
6.2
5.9
6.6
5.2
60.41
6.9
6.1
6.9
6.44
65.83
6.18
8.13
9

Continued contraction in the shortterm is expected to give way to growth


towards the end of 2013, thanks to the
comprehensive policy of growthfriendly structural reforms and fiscal
consolidation. Unemployment
continues to grow and government
debt remains stubbornly high, though
there is some good news as exports
become more competitive.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Latvia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
-0.3
24.0
11.5
11.5
1.7
0.5
18.7
2.2
36.2
39.9
0.7
3.0

2011
5.5
28.3
20.7
12.6
2.6
1.0
16.2
2.1
35.9
37.8
-0.3
-1.2

2012
4.5
27.2
7.5
5.9
2.9
1.1
15.3
2.0
38.0
37.4
-0.4
-1.6

2013
3.5
28.1
6.6
5.3
3.0
1.1
13.9
2.0
35.3
40.6
-0.8
-2.8

2014
4.2
29.8
6.1
6.0
3.1
1.2
12.3
2.0
34.1
38.5
-1.0
-3.4

2015
4.2
31.6
6.2
6.0
3.1
1.2
11.2
2.0
32.2
35.0
-1.2
-3.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$6,897 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

48.99
47.49 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.8
4.8
5.7
4.5
4.1
49.91
6.1
5.9
5.9
6.1
5.2
5.9
58.39
4.8
4.9
5.25
5.44
51.18
0
4.38
7

2011
5
4.9
4.9
3.9
4.5
46.22
6.1
5.9
6.3
6.3
5.6
6.1
60.6
5.4
5
5.26
5.37
52.69
0
4.17
6

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Latvia's economic growth rate was the


fastest among the EU member states in
2012, and it is expected that this will
remain the case in 2013, helping chip
away at the countrys eye-watering
unemployment rate. More than ever,
Latvia is dependent on external market
developments, and exporters have
proven capable of boosting business
with non-European markets.

121

COUNTRY PROFILE

Netherlands
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.6
781.2
11.1
12.0
73.6
64.7
4.5
16.6
45.5
62.9
55.1
7.0

2011
1.1
838.1
4.2
4.2
101.7
88.4
4.4
16.7
45.3
65.2
70.9
8.5

2012
-0.5
770.2
3.1
3.7
104.9
91.1
5.2
16.8
46.4
68.2
63.5
8.2

2013
0.4
767.1
3.8
3.7
105.7
91.8
5.7
16.8
46.8
70.2
62.6
8.2

2014
1.4
786.4
4.2
4.0
104.0
90.4
5.3
16.9
46.2
71.9
62.9
8.0

2015
1.8
807.9
5.4
5.0
102.9
89.4
5.0
16.9
46.3
72.7
61.3
7.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$54,816 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

81.82
84.71 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

122

2012
7.3
6.2
8
7.4
7.4
72.53
9
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.4
8
85.4
8.4
6.9
8.17
7.61
77.73
7.04
10
9.63

2011
7.5
6.8
8
8
7.5
75.93
9.1
9
8.9
8.3
8.5
8.3
86.79
8.4
6.9
8.33
7.69
78.29
8.02
10
10

The Netherlands is known for its highvalue-added, competitive, diverse


economy, backed by current account
surpluses and net international
investment. It cannot however escape
the European downturn.Trade is the
principal driver of GDP growth in the
coming years and so a recovery by
Eurozone partners is vital to Dutch
economic prospects.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Norway
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
0.6
417.5
9.9
1.6
0.9
46.7
3.6
4.9
56.4
49.6
51.9
12.4

2011
1.5
485.4
3.6
-1.4
1.1
57.3
3.3
5.0
58.0
49.6
70.3
14.5

2012
3.1
499.8
2.7
1.0
1.2
57.3
3.1
5.0
57.7
49.6
76.1
15.2

2013
2.4
520.2
3.3
0.8
1.1
56.2
3.1
5.1
57.2
49.6
81.4
15.6

2014
2.0
532.7
3.0
1.0
1.1
53.2
3.3
5.1
56.5
49.6
80.0
15.0

2015
2.0
545.6
3.0
1.1
1.0
50.5
3.3
5.2
55.8
49.6
78.4
14.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$55,599 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

89.87
91.17 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
8.6
7.7
9
8.8
9.4
86.82
9.6
9.2
9
9.3
9.1
8.7
91.5
8.8
7.4
8.48
7.94
81.64
8.5
10
9.7

2011
8.9
7.9
9
9
9.3
88.17
9.7
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.1
9
92.36
8.9
7.3
8.53
8.19
82.13
8.88
10
10

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

The strongest performer on the


Euromoney Country Risk ratings,
despite the challenging global
economic environment, the Norwegian
economy continues to perform well
thanks to low interest rates, high
income growth and high oil prices.
Growth in a number of emerging
economies is waning, and the economic
downturn among Norways trading
partners is set to continue well into
2014, contributing to low growth in
traditional Norwegian exports of goods
going forward.

123

COUNTRY PROFILE

Poland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.9
469.8
11.5
12.1
16.6
0.0
9.6
38.2
37.5
54.8
-21.9
-4.7

2011
4.3
514.5
6.2
7.5
22.7
0.0
9.6
38.2
38.5
56.3
-22.2
-4.3

2012
2.4
470.4
5.9
4.0
23.8
0.0
10.0
38.2
39.8
55.1
-17.4
-3.7

2013
2.1
496.1
6.2
5.9
24.0
0.0
10.2
38.3
38.9
55.3
-18.7
-3.8

2014
2.7
522.9
6.0
6.7
23.6
0.0
9.9
38.3
38.5
55.0
-19.2
-3.7

2015
3.1
553.8
6.1
6.7
23.3
0.0
9.7
38.3
38.2
54.6
-20.3
-3.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$108,900 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

64.84
67.19 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

124

2012
7.3
6.3
6.6
5.7
5.2
62.18
7
6.2
7
7.2
6.7
7.3
68.95
6.3
5
5.52
5.99
56.97
6
6.46
7.33

2011
6.9
6.8
6.7
5.9
5.3
63.48
7.3
6.2
7.2
7.2
6.7
7.4
70.19
6.3
5
5.51
6.01
57.12
6
6.46
9

Poland was fortunate enough to be the


only European country to avoid a
recession during the 2008/9 global
financial crisis.The economy is slowing,
but in comparison to its neighbours,
Poland continues to experience
relatively strong GDP growth of 2.1%
in 2013, and 2.7% in 2014.Weak
demand from Eurozone export markets
is being offset by healthy domestic
demand.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Portugal
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.4
229.1
-4.4
0.3
8.0
2.3
10.8
10.6
41.4
93.3
-22.9
-10.0

2011
-1.7
237.8
-4.4
8.9
10.0
2.9
12.7
10.6
44.7
107.8
-15.3
-6.4

2012
-3.0
210.6
-12.3
-3.0
9.9
3.0
15.5
10.7
41.7
119.1
-6.0
-2.9

2013
-1.0
206.6
-2.1
2.6
10.0
3.2
16.0
10.7
42.9
123.7
-3.5
-1.7

2014
1.2
210.4
5.7
7.1
10.3
3.4
15.3
10.7
43.1
123.6
-2.5
-1.2

2015
1.9
216.5
5.2
5.9
10.7
3.6
14.7
10.7
43.1
120.8
-1.7
-0.8

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$22,660 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

50.62
52.61 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.2
2.9
6.5
3.2
3.3
40.09
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.7
6.1
63.93
6.3
6.3
6.41
5.55
61.39
6
3.96
5

2011
4.3
2.9
6.7
2.9
3.5
40.53
6.3
5.9
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.6
63.7
6.1
6
6.38
5.28
59.38
6
3.13
4.3

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Portugal will remain in recession for


another year in 2013, but 2014 might
see a return to economic growth.The
economy is rebalancing towards
exports, and this is happening faster
than expected. A dip in labour costs
will increase competitiveness against
other exporting nations as shown by
a 2.6% increase in exports predicted
for 2013.

125

COUNTRY PROFILE

Romania
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
-1.6
164.4
11.9
14.1
4.4
3.7
7.3
21.4
32.3
31.2
-7.3
-4.5

2011
2.5
189.8
10.5
9.9
5.4
4.7
7.4
21.4
31.4
33.0
-8.3
-4.4

2012
0.9
171.4
3.3
4.7
5.0
4.4
7.2
21.3
32.3
34.6
-6.4
-3.7

2013
2.5
172.1
6.1
6.3
5.1
4.5
7.0
21.3
32.8
34.5
-6.5
-3.8

2014
3.0
183.3
8.0
8.0
5.5
4.8
6.8
21.3
33.3
33.7
-7.2
-3.9

2015
3.3
196.4
8.4
8.2
6.0
5.2
6.6
21.2
33.2
32.9
-8.4
-4.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$46,724 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

46.95
47.83 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

126

2012
5.3
4.6
5
5.3
4.9
50.11
5.8
3.6
5.7
5
5.2
4.7
49.97
5.2
4.4
4.38
4.79
46.83
2.57
4.17
5.5

2011
5.3
4.8
5.2
5
5.1
50.87
5.5
3.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.6
47.95
5.2
4.2
4.09
4.65
45.28
3.32
4.17
6.17

Romania is one of the bright spots of


Europe, with growth building to 2.5%
in 2013 thanks to more exports and
better agricultural harvests.There are
challenges though including the
uncertainty in the Eurozone and
Romanias other exports markets. In
order to achieve steady economic
growth while meeting fiscal targets,
Romania must continue structural
reforms and modernisation of both the
public sector and infrastructure.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Russia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.3
1,487.3
25.1
7.0
0.0
206.3
7.5
142.9
35.5
11.8
70.0
4.7

2011
4.3
1,850.4
19.8
5.0
0.0
277.5
6.5
142.4
38.4
12.0
98.8
5.3

2012
3.7
1,953.6
7.5
3.0
0.0
287.7
6.0
141.9
37.7
11.0
101.7
5.2

2013
3.8
2,109.0
8.1
3.0
0.0
288.9
6.0
141.4
37.0
9.9
80.8
3.8

2014
3.9
2,308.2
8.0
3.4
0.0
280.7
6.0
141.0
35.6
10.8
52.3
2.3

2015
3.9
2,529.2
7.2
3.7
0.0
272.9
6.0
140.5
34.5
11.5
23.5
0.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$537,618 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

52.68
53.07 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.3
6
5.5
6.2
6.2
58.32
5.5
2.5
3.8
3.5
3.5
6.4
42.34
4.9
4.2
4.03
5.31
45.96
4.5
5.21
8.17

2011
5.2
6.2
5.6
6
6.5
59.13
5.1
2.4
4.1
3.4
3.8
6.6
42.65
5.2
4.3
4.18
5.26
47.18
4.92
5.21
7.38

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Economic momentum is slowing, and


capital flight remains an issue, but the
overall outlook for Russia is positive. As
one of the worlds largest exporters of
energy and minerals it has large FX
reserves to shield it from economic
crises. Nevertheless challenges
stemming from an over-dependence on
oil, aging infrastructure and
unfavourable demographics, need to be
addressed. GDP growth will stay
relatively stable going forward.

127

COUNTRY PROFILE

Slovak Republic
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.2
87.2
16.3
16.5
7.2
2.8
14.4
5.4
32.4
41.1
-2.2
-2.5

2011
3.3
96.1
4.5
10.8
9.8
3.8
13.5
5.4
32.6
43.3
0.1
0.1

2012
2.6
91.2
3.3
4.4
10.2
3.9
13.7
5.5
32.1
46.3
0.7
0.8

2013
2.8
93.3
5.5
6.3
10.3
4.0
13.5
5.5
34.1
47.2
0.2
0.3

2014
3.6
98.2
5.6
6.1
10.3
4.0
12.8
5.5
33.8
47.6
0.2
0.3

2015
3.6
103.3
5.4
5.6
10.3
4.0
12.0
5.5
33.7
48.1
0.2
0.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$2,640 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

69.05
70.37 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

128

2012
7.6
6.2
8.2
5.2
5.7
65.91
7.9
6.5
6.8
7.1
6.9
6.6
70
6.5
5
6.15
6.65
60.77
7.6
7.08
7.5

2011
7.6
6.2
8.3
5.3
5.6
65.88
8.1
6.3
7.1
7.4
7.4
6.6
71.65
6.6
5
6.39
6.83
62
7.24
7.5
8.17

The Slovak Republic is another Eastern


European economy that has managed to
maintain economic growth during the
challenges of 2011/12.Weaker demand
for exports and government austerity
measures have dampened growth, but it
remains just shy of 3% in 2013 thanks to
new car plant investments and lower
labour costs compared to its
neighbours.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Spain
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
-0.3
1,391.8
9.2
11.3
58.9
11.9
20.1
46.1
36.2
61.3
-62.9
-4.5

2011
0.4
1,479.6
-0.9
7.6
78.3
21.0
21.7
46.1
35.5
69.1
-52.2
-3.5

2012
-1.5
1,340.3
-5.7
2.4
77.5
21.4
24.9
46.3
35.7
90.7
-26.4
-2.0

2013
-1.3
1,311.1
-2.8
3.5
71.7
21.0
25.1
46.5
36.4
96.9
-1.9
-0.1

2014
1.0
1,335.8
1.9
4.5
70.0
21.0
24.1
46.7
36.3
100.0
9.2
0.7

2015
1.6
1,367.8
3.0
4.6
69.7
21.3
23.2
46.9
36.3
101.1
17.2
1.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$51,247 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

54.07
62.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
3.5
3
6.5
2.2
3.8
38.28
7
6.5
6.9
6.4
6.7
6.4
66.47
6.7
5.6
7.19
5.15
61.66
6
5
5.5

2011
4.3
3.7
6.6
2.6
4.1
42.56
7.4
6.3
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.4
67.37
6.9
6.5
7.11
5.74
65.64
6.53
8.96
7

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

The government hopes that 2012


marked the low-point for the Spanish
economy, but 2013 is unlikely to see any
significant improvement in prospects.
Exports are holding up and growth is
expected to return in 2014, but
crippling unemployment and austerity
measures have crushed domestic
demand.

129

COUNTRY PROFILE

Sweden
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.9
469.3
12.0
9.2
19.1
10.7
8.4
9.4
49.8
38.8
31.8
6.8

2011
4.0
544.7
6.1
6.4
25.0
13.0
7.5
9.5
49.1
37.9
37.7
6.9

2012
1.2
520.3
-1.1
-8.0
24.9
13.0
7.5
9.5
48.9
37.1
37.6
7.2

2013
2.2
533.9
3.2
2.3
23.8
12.4
7.7
9.5
49.0
35.9
41.7
7.8

2014
2.5
558.5
2.5
5.0
23.8
12.4
7.0
9.6
49.0
34.1
42.2
7.6

2015
2.6
584.3
3.3
4.5
24.0
12.5
6.5
9.6
49.0
31.0
44.1
7.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$52,301 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

86.81
85.08 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

130

2012
8.3
7.3
8.3
7.2
8.6
79.2
9.5
8.9
9.2
9.1
8.7
8.8
90.27
9
7.6
8.37
8.02
82.33
8.18
10
9.55

2011
8.2
7.6
8.3
7
8.3
78.83
9.4
9
9.2
9
8.7
8.9
90.15
8.9
7.6
8.43
8.06
82.35
8.24
10
7.88

With 50% of its output destined for


export markets and 70% of that into
Europe, Swedens growth was curbed in
2012, but remained a solid 1.2%, and is
expected to rise to 2.2% in 2013.
Unemployment is expected to jump
slightly over the year as exporters adjust
their labour requirements to shrinking
global demand.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Switzerland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.0
550.7
7.4
7.8
22.7

2011
1.9
660.8
4.2
3.8
23.3

2012
0.8
622.9
1.3
-0.3
24.0

2013
1.4
616.6
3.0
2.6
24.8

2014
1.8
625.5
6.0
5.2
25.5

2015
1.9
634.2
6.2
5.2
26.3

3.5
7.9
32.8
48.0
78.6
14.3

2.8
8.0
33.9
46.8
69.5
10.5

3.4
8.0
33.9
46.7
62.6
10.1

3.6
8.1
33.9
45.6
61.5
10.0

3.3
8.1
34.0
43.6
61.6
9.8

3.2
8.1
34.1
42.6
62.0
9.8

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$526,226 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

86.78
88.40 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
8.4
7.2
8.8
8.4
8.8
83.01
9.5
8.8
8.6
8.9
8.7
9
89.12
9
7.5
8.95
9.12
86.39
6.9
10
9.6

2011
8.4
7.4
8.6
8.4
8.7
82.92
9.3
8.8
8.6
8.8
8.6
9
88.42
8.9
7.6
8.88
9.07
86.08
8.39
10
10

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Switzerland will maintain modest


growth in 2013, but exports are hurt by
the strength of the franc, dropping
slightly in 2012. Unemployment is a
concern domestically, but in
comparison to its neighbours Swiss
unemployment is very low. Low interest
rates are likely to boost domestic
demand, and GDP growth will edge
towards 2% by 2015.

131

COUNTRY PROFILE

Ukraine
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.1
136.4
18.1
9.3
8.1
2.2
8.1
45.8
43.2
40.5
-3.0
-2.2

2011
5.2
165.2
20.3
7.1
11.2
4.3
7.9
45.6
42.4
36.0
-9.0
-5.5

2012
3.0
180.2
6.9
5.7
11.3
5.6
7.8
45.4
43.8
35.2
-10.1
-5.6

2013
3.5
195.4
7.8
6.4
11.1
5.3
7.7
45.1
42.3
35.1
-13.0
-6.6

2014
3.5
208.2
7.6
7.6
11.2
5.2
7.6
44.9
41.7
35.0
-14.3
-6.9

2015
3.5
222.5
7.6
8.0
11.3
5.0
7.4
44.7
41.1
35.2
-14.8
-6.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$24,546 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

34.1
36.72 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

132

2012
3.6
4.4
3.4
4.7
3.5
39.13
4.3
2.4
3.5
3
3.2
4.8
35.54
4.9
4.5
4.4
4.88
46.64
2.09
1.46
3.5

2011
4
5
4.1
5
3.9
43.97
4.6
2.6
3.8
3
3.6
5.6
38.81
5.4
4.6
4.54
5.26
49.65
5.40
1.46
4

The challenges of its key export markets


are causing deterioration in the
Ukrainian economy as demand for
commodities slips.The hryvnia is under
a lot of pressure and the Central Bank is
acting to protect the dollar peg. A large
scale privatization programme is
underway to reduce the governments
involvement in the economy from 40%
of GDP to 25%. Corruption and low
investor protection remain problems,
but growth is expected to be 3.5% in
2013.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

United Kingdom
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.8
2,267.5
8.0
6.4
55.7
48.4
7.9
62.2
36.4
75.0
-57.6
-2.5

2011
0.8
2,431.3
0.5
4.4
79.4
60.9
8.0
62.6
36.8
81.8
-46.6
-1.9

2012
-0.4
2,433.8
1.6
-0.8
78.7
61.7
8.1
63.1
37.2
88.7
-80.6
-3.3

2013
1.1
2,532.0
1.0
2.4
80.3
64.4
8.1
63.5
37.1
93.3
-68.6
-2.7

2014
2.2
2,651.7
2.7
5.2
77.8
62.2
7.9
63.9
37.4
96.0
-59.5
-2.2

2015
2.6
2,793.3
3.2
5.9
75.4
60.2
7.6
64.3
37.3
96.6
-42.0
-1.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$134,261 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

72.89
75.20 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6
4.6
6.8
4.7
5
54.23
8.5
8.1
8.4
7.9
7.9
7.2
80.03
7.7
6.4
7.09
6.89
70.27
6.05
10
9.54

2011
6.6
5
6.9
5.3
5.2
58.11
8.8
8.2
8.7
8
8.1
7.7
82.53
7.8
6.7
7.51
7.29
73.33
6.51
10
9.08

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

The rebalancing of the UK economy


towards more exports has been
disappointingly slow and the dip in
global demand is a contributing factor
to the country slipping back into
recession. Austerity cuts and weak
investment by the private sector have
dampened growth, and further cuts
are on the horizon. Modest growth
will return in 2013, but it is unlikely
a recovery will be apparent before
2014.

133

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


Belgium
Office National du Ducroire (ONDD)
3, rue Montoyerstraat
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel:
(+32) 2 788 88 00
Fax:
(+32) 2 788 88 10
Email: info@ondd.be
Website: www.ondd.be

Bulgaria
Bulgarian Export Insurance Agency (BAEZ)
55, Alexander Stamboliiski blvd.
1301 Sofia, Bulgaria
Tel:
+ 359 2 923 69 11
Fax:
+ 359 2 987 06 65
Email: baez@baez-bg.com
Website: www.baez-bg.com

Croatia
Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (HBOR)
Strossmayerov trg 9,
10000 Zagreb
Croatia
Tel:
(+385) 1 4591 545, (+385) 1 4591 539
Fax:
(+385) 1 4591 547
Email: info@hbor.hr, export@hbor.hr,
insurance@hbor.hr,
funding@hbor.hr
Website: www.hbor.hr

134

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Czech Republic
Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation (EGAP)
Vodickova 34, P.O.Box 6, 111 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic
Tel:
(+420) 222 841 111
Fax:
(+420) 222 844 001
Website: www.egap.cz

Denmark
Eksport Kredit Fonden (EKF)
Dahlerups Pakhus, Langelinie All 17, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Tel:
(+45) 35 46 61 00
Fax:
(+45) 35 46 61 11
Website: www.ekf.dk

Finland
Finnvera
Etelesplanadi 8, 00130 Helsinki, Finland
P.O. Box 1010, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel:
(+358) 204 6011
Fax:
(+358) 204 6072 20
Website: www.finnvera.fi

Finnish Export Credit (FEC)


Etelesplanadi 8, POB 123, FI-00131 Helsinki, Finland
Tel:
+358 20 460 3500
Fax:
+358 20 460 3501
Email: fec@fec.fi
Website: www.fec.fi

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

135

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

France
Coface
12 Cours Michelet, La Dfense 10, 92800 Puteaux, France
Tel:
(+33) 1 49 02 20 00
Fax:
(+33) 1 49 02 27 11
Website: www.coface.com

Germany
Euler Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG
Friedensallee 254, 22763 Hamburg, Germany
Tel:
(+49) 40 8834 0, (+49) 40 8834-9192 (ECA activities)
Fax:
(+49) 40 8834 7744
Website: www.eulerhermes.com/ger
www.agaportal.de (ECA activities)

Hungary
Hungarian Export Credit Insurance (MEHIB)
Nagymez u. 46-48., H-1065 Budapest, Hungary
Tel:
(+36) 1 374 9200
Fax:
(+36) 1 269 1198
Email: info@mehib.hu
Website: www.mehib.hu

Hungarian Export-Import Bank (Eximbank)


Nagymez u. 46-48, H-1065 Budapest, Hungary
Tel:
(+36) 1 37 49 100
Fax:
(+36) 1 26 94 476
Email: eximh@eximbank.hu
Website: www.eximbank.hu

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Italy
SACE
Piazza Poli, 37/42, 00187 Rome, Italy
Tel. +39 06 67 361
Fax +39 67 36 707
Website: www.sace.it

Netherlands
Atradius
David Ricardostraat 1, 1066 JS Amsterdam, The Netherlands
P.O.Box 8982, 1006 JD Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Tel:
(+31) 20 553 9111
Fax:
(+31) 20 553 2811
Email: info.nl@atradius.com
Website: www.atradius.com
www.atradius.nl
www.atradiusdutchstatebusiness.nl

Norway
Garantiinstituttet for eksportkreditt (GIEK)
Dronning Maus, gate 15, Oslo, Norway
PO Box 1763 Vika, 0122 Oslo, Norway
Tel:
(+47) 22 87 62 00
Fax:
(+47) 22 83 24 45
Email: giek@giek.no
Website: www.giek.no

Poland
Export Credit Insurance Corporation (KUKE)
Sienna Street, 39, 00-121 Warszawa, Poland
Tel:
(+48) 22 313 0110, (+48) 22 356 8300
Fax:
(+48) 22 313 0120
Email: market@kuke.com.pl
Website: www.kuke.com.pl

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Portugal
Companhia de Seguro de Crditos (COSEC)
Avenida da Republica, 58, 1069-057 Lisboa, Portugal
Tel.: (+351) 21 791 3700
Fax:
(+351) 21 791 3720
Email: cosec@cosec.pt
Website: www.cosec.pt

Romania
EximBank of Romania
15, Splaiul Independentei, 050092 Bucharest 5, Romania
Website: www.eximbank.ro

Russia
EXIAR
Export Insurance Agency of Russia
Tel:
+7 (495) 783-11-88
Fax:
+7 (495) 783-11-22
Email: info@exiar.ru
Website: www.exiar.ru

Slovak Republic
Export-Import bank of the Slovak Republic (Eximbanka)
Grsslingov 1, 813 50 Bratislava, Slovakia
Tel:
+ 421 2 59 398 111
Fax:
+421 2 52 931 624
Email: informacie@eximbanka.sk
Website: www.eximbanka.sk

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Spain
Compaa Cesce, Seguros de Crdito
Velazquez 74, 28001 Madrid, Spain
Tel:
(+34) 902 111 010
Fax:
(+34) 91 576 5140/575 1829
Website: www.cesce.es

Instituto de Crdito Oficial (ICO)


Paseo del Prado No 4, 28014 Madrid, Spain
Tel:
(+34) 91 592 1600
Fax:
(+34) 91 592 1785 / 592 1700
Website: www.ico.es

Sweden
EKN
The Swedish Export Credits Guarantee Board
P.O. Box 3064, S-103 61 Stockholm, Sweden
Tel:
(+46) 8 788 00 00
Fax (+46) 8 411 81 49
Email: info@ekn.se
Website: www.ekn.se

Switzerland
Swiss Export Risk Insurance (SERV)
Zeltweg 63, CH-8032 Zurich, Switzerland
Tel:
+41 44 384 47 77
Fax:
+41 44 384 47 87
Email: info@serv-ch.com
Website: www.serv-ch.com

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Turkey
Export Credit Bank of Turkey (Turk Eximbank)
Mdafaa Caddesi, No. 20, 06100 Bakanliklar-Ankara, Turkey
Tel:
(+90) 312 417 13 00
Fax:
(+90) 312 418 00 15
Email: ankara@eximbank.gov.tr
Website: www.eximbank.gov.tr

United Kingdom
UK Export Finance
2 Exchange Tower, Harbour Exchange Square, London E14 9GS, UK
Tel:
(+44) 20 7512 7000
Fax:
(+44) 20 7512 7649
Website: www.ecgd.gov.uk

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Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


Belgian Investment Company for Developing Countries (BIO)
Avenue de Tervuren 188A b4
1150 Brussels, Belgium
Tel:
+32 2 778 99 99
Fax:
+ 32 778 99 90
Website: www.bio-invest.be
E-mail: info@bio-invest.be

Black Sea Trade and Development Bank


1 Komninon str. 54624
Thessaloniki, Greece
(+30 2310) 290400
(+30 2310) 221796, 286590
E-mail: info@bstdb.org
Website: www.bstdb.org

CDC Group
Cardinal Place
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
United Kingdom
Tel:
+44 (20) 7963 4700
Fax:
+44 (20) 7963 4750
E-mail: enquiries@cdcgroup.com
Website: www.cdcgroup.com

Compaa Espaola de Financiacin del Desarrollo,


COFIDES, S.A.
Prncipe de Vergara, 132
28002 Madrid
Spain
Tel:
(+34) 91 562 60 08 / 745 44 80
Fax:
(+34) 91 561 00 15
Website: www.cofides.es
E-mail: cofides@cofides.es

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

DEG Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft mbH


Kaemmergasse 22
50676 Cologne
Germany
Tel:
+ 49 221 4986-0
Fax:
+ 49 221 4986-1290
Website: www.deginvest.de
E-mail: info@deginvest.de

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)


One Exchange Square,
London EC2A 2JN
United Kingdom
Tel:
(+44) 20 7338 6000
Fax:
(+44) 20 7338 6690
Website: www.ebrd.com

European Investment Bank (EIB)


98-100 Boulevard Konrad Adenauer
L-2950 Luxembourg
Tel.:
+352 43 79 22000
Fax:
+352 43 79 62000
Website: www.eib.org
E-mail: info@eib.org

Finnish Fund for Industrial Cooperation Ltd. (Finnfund)


P.O. Box 391
FI-00121 Helsinki
Finland
Tel:
+358 9 348 434
Fax:
+358 9 3484 3346
Website: www.finnfund.fi

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO)


Anna van Saksenlaan 71
2593 HW The Hague
The Netherlands
Tel:
+31 70-314 96 96
Fax:
+ 31 70-324 61 87
E-mail: info@fmo.nl
Website: www.fmo.nl

KfW IPEX-Bank
Fritz Frank, Senior Director
Global Head of Syndication and Treasury
E-mail: fritz.frank@kfw.de
Tel:
(+49) 69 74 31 23 21
Fax:
(+49) 69 74 31 96 04
Website: www.kfw.de

Nordic Investment Bank (NIB)


Fabianinkatu 34
P.O. Box 249
FI-00171 Helsinki
Finland
Tel:
+358 10 618 001
Fax:
+358 10 618 0725
E-mail: info@nib.int
Website: www.nib.int

Norfund - The Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing


Countries
Norfund
P.O. Box 1280 Vika
0110 Oslo
Norway
Tel:
+47 22 01 93 93
Fax:
+47 22 01 93 94
Website: www.norfund.no

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143

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Oesterreichische Entwicklungsbank (OeEB)


Oesterreichische Entwicklungsbank AG (OeEB)
Strauchgasse 1-3
1011 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 1 533 1200-0
Fax:
+43 1 533 1200-5252
E-mail: office@oe-eb.at
Website: www.oe-eb.at

The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)


Parkring 8, A-1010 Vienna, Austria
P.O. Box 995, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Tel:
(+43 1) 515 64-0
Fax:
(+43 1) 513 92 38
E-mail: info@opecfund.org
Website: www.ofid.org

PROPARCO
151, rue Saint Honor
75001 Paris, France
Tel:
+33 1 53 44 37 37
Fax:
+33 1 53 44 38 38
Website: www.proparco.fr

SEK Swedish Export Credit Corporation


AB Svensk Exportkredit
Box 194, SE-101 23 Stockholm
Besksadress: Klarabergsviadukten 61 - 63
Tel:
+46 8 613 83 00
Fax:
+46 8 20 38 94
E-mail: info@sek.se
Website: www.sek.se

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Societ Italiana per le Imprese allEstero (Simest SpA)


Societ Italiana per le Imprese allEstero (Simest SpA)
Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, 323
00186 Rome, Italy
Tel:
(+39) 06 686 351
Fax:
(+39) 06 686 352 220
Website: www.simest.it

SOFID Sociedade para o Financiamento do Desenvolvimento, S.A.


Av. Casal Ribeiro, 14 4
1000-092 Lisbon, Portugal
Tel:
+351 21 313 7760
Fax:
+351 21 313 7779
E-mail: sofid@sofid.pt
Website: www.sofid.pt

Swedfund International AB (Swedfund)


Swedfund International AB (Swedfund)
P.O. Box 3286
SE-103 65 Stockholm, Sweden
Tel:
+46 8 725 94 00
Fax:
+46 8 20 30 93
Website: www.swedfund.se

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145

MIDDLE EAST
& NORTH AFRICA

DUBAI, UAE

At a particularly turbulent time for North Africa and the northern Middle East, the role
of development financial institutions and multilaterals has become vital in mitigating
risk and maintaining trade flows. In the Gulf, large power generation, water, and
petrochemicals facilities, as well as the regions rapidly growing airlines continue to
require the support of official agencies. SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has a
presence in Dubai and Istanbul. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
Growth in SWIFTs business in the Middle East outperforms global growth The rise
in message traffic supports evidence of regional growth; increase in clients both corporates and
financial institutions makes the region an important hub for SWIFT.
Country profiles
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Libya

146

Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Agency contact details

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MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

Growth in SWIFTs business in the


Middle East outperforms global growth
The rise in message traffic supports evidence of regional growth; increase in clients both
corporates and financial institutions makes the region an important hub for SWIFT.
SWIFT, the financial messaging provider for more than 10,000 banks, securities
institutions and corporate customers in 212 countries and territories, revealed in early
2013 that its business in the Middle East has outperformed the total growth of the
business globally by 45%, underpinning the growing importance of the region as a hub
for international banking and finance.
This marks a major milestone for SWIFT in the Middle East as it continues to expand
and invest in this fast growing region, creating a Middle East Consulting Hub and
hosting its annual global industry event, Sibos, in Dubai later this year.
"The Middle East region is a vital market for SWIFT; it has outperformed our other
regions and contributes significantly to the growth of our business globally. We are
excited with the growth potential this market can bring to SWIFT and are bringing
more resources, services and opportunities to the local financial community, says
Gottfried Leibbrandt, chief executive officer at SWIFT, speaking in Dubai.
Growth in the region is spread across SWIFTs traditional financial message-based
business (including payments, securities, treasury and trade) and in the rapidly
expanding non-network-based businesses such as consulting and services, business
intelligence, and connectivity solutions.

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MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA


The growth in SWIFTs message businesses in the Middle East was led by the
securities markets, which saw double digit growth of around 14% in 2012 versus the
previous year.This was followed by international payments traffic, which grew by more
than 10% in 2012.
Sido Bestani, head of Middle East & North Africa at SWIFT, observes: The Middle
East is one of the most dynamic and fast changing regions in the world today. SWIFT
has ambitious plans to accelerate local market growth by investing in people and
resources and expanding its service offerings through the regional hub.
Launched in early 2012, SWIFTs Middle East Consulting Hub has a multi-language
team of SWIFT experts who provide business and technical analysis, integration and
implementation services, as well as training and support services.
Bestani adds: Given the growing importance of the Middle East to the global financial
community, we selected the UAE as the first Regional Consulting Hub. Over the past
year we have been building out the team, and it is already providing dedicated support
for the regions corporates and financial institutions.
More than 1,100 banks, financial institutions and corporations in the region connect
to other domestic, regional and global institutions and market infrastructures every day
through SWIFTs highly secure and reliable network, to communicate about financial
transactions. Key clients already include many of the regions major financial
institutions, central banks and corporates, and their number across the region is also
rising rapidly. For example, the number of Exchange Houses that have joined the
SWIFT community has risen from just two in 2007 to 45 this year with three more
in the process of joining.This includes all of the major Exchange Houses in the region,
and 26 in the UAE alone.

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Similarly, the growth of the corporate community connected to SWIFT in the region is
gaining velocity year-on-year. In 2012, the number of corporate clients grew by more
than 31%, following increases of more than 21% and 19% in 2011 and 2010, respectively.

Sibos comes to Dubai


Each year SWIFT hosts Sibos, a global industry event attracting more than 7,000 of
the worlds most prominent financial institutions and technology vendors across the
global financial services industry. From 16-19 September, September, SWIFT is
bringing Sibos to Dubai and for four days, the industrys leading executives and
technology providers will converge on the City to debate and discuss key industry
topics as well as network with peers from across the globe.
Commenting on Sibos, Alain Raes, chief executive, EMEA and Asia Pacific, SWIFT,
says: Everyone comes to Sibos. It is the one place that all the key influencers and
major players in financial services can get together and discuss issues, do business, and
demo new solutions. We are thrilled to bring Sibos to Dubai and hope this further
solidifies the UAEs mark as a key financial centre.
H.E. Hisham Al Shirawi, first vice chairman, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and
Industry, adds: Dubai is the regions leading banking and financial hub... We are
looking forward to Sibos, which is coming to Dubai in September, bringing with it
global leaders in finance, market infrastructures, multinational corporations and
technology. It is an important achievement for Dubai to attract an event of this size and
calibre and one that demonstrates the citys status as an international business
destination.
More information about Sibos is available at www.sibos.com.

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149

COUNTRY PROFILE

Algeria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.3
162.0
1.7
-2.4
0.0
56.1
10.0
35.4
36.5
10.9
12.1
7.5

2011
2.4
197.9
0.8
-3.2
0.0
71.7
10.0
36.0
39.6
9.5
19.7
10.0

2012
2.6
206.5
6.4
-2.9
0.0
71.1
9.7
36.5
37.5
8.6
12.9
6.2

2013
3.4
214.4
-2.7
0.4
0.0
70.6
9.3
37.0
35.1
7.9
13.1
6.1

2014
3.3
219.7
1.7
0.7
0.0
67.9
9.0
37.6
33.8
7.6
10.9
5.0

2015
3.4
225.8
1.4
0.9
0.0
65.5
8.6
38.2
32.7
7.3
9.5
4.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$190,500 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

40.2
39.44 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

150

2012
4.4
5.4
5.1
4.9
5.1
49.82
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.2
2.9
4.6
35.8
3.8
5.3
4.48
4.16
44.25
5.59
0
4.5

2011
3.9
6
4.4
4.3
5.4
48
3.8
3.5
3.9
3.1
3
3.5
34.69
4.3
5.3
4.2
4.42
45.47
5.74
0
4

Recent terrorist activity in the south of


the country has dominated the news in
early 2013, and highlighted the
importance of Algerias oil and gas
industry.The government is in the midst
of an ambitious five-year infrastructure
spending plan, but foreign companies
are limited to service contracts with the
public sector.The regulatory
environment limits the scope for
foreign investment and financing, but
growth is expected to be a respectable
3.1% in 2013.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Bahrain
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.7
21.5
4.1
2.8
5.4
10.2

2011
2.1
25.9
2.1
9.2
7.5
15.5

2012
2.0
26.5
2.1
4.5
7.0
15.4

2013
2.8
27.7
-7.2
4.2
6.5
15.6

2014
2.6
28.4
-7.4
-0.1
5.9
15.0

2015
2.6
29.0
-7.3
-0.6
5.3
14.4

1.1
27.2
35.6
0.8
3.6

1.1
28.3
36.8
3.2
12.6

1.2
30.8
36.0
2.6
9.9

1.2
31.5
37.1
2.9
10.5

1.2
30.4
40.8
2.8
9.8

1.2
28.6
45.9
2.6
9.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,069 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

55.01
52.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.6
5.2
6.9
4.9
5.2
55.52
6.4
5.2
4.3
4.4
4.9
4
48.65
5.7
4.7
5.99
5.15
53.85
7.67
5.21
5.5

2011
5.1
5.2
6.7
4.8
5.1
53.78
6
5.4
3.9
4.4
4.8
3.6
46.73
5.5
4.5
6.03
5.18
53.08
7.24
5.21
4.5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Bahrain is more diversified and less


dependent on the petroleum industry
than its neighbours. Compared to many
of the Gulf States, Bahrains economic
growth is disappointing, and
crackdowns on protests have done little
to enhance the countrys image as an
investment destination.

151

COUNTRY PROFILE

Egypt
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.1
218.5
-5.2
-3.1
5.2
8.0
9.2
78.7
25.1
73.2
-4.3
-2.0

2011
1.8
235.7
-2.9
-5.4
9.3
10.2
12.1
80.4
22.0
76.4
-6.1
-2.6

2012
2.0
255.0
3.4
-7.8
11.8
11.4
12.7
82.0
22.4
79.7
-8.7
-3.4

2013
3.0
275.9
2.6
4.6
11.9
11.4
13.5
83.6
23.4
81.1
-9.0
-3.3

2014
4.5
273.1
3.3
7.8
11.9
11.0
13.7
85.3
25.8
78.5
-6.2
-2.3

2015
6.0
289.7
7.0
6.3
12.1
10.4
13.3
87.0
26.0
75.0
-6.0
-2.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$15,044 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

33.17
39.31 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

152

2012
4.1
3.1
3.3
3.1
2.2
31.57
4.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.3
2.2
32.47
3.9
4.1
3.96
3.55
38.76
5.14
1.46
3.5

2011
4.1
3.2
3.5
2.8
2.9
32.88
4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
1.9
32.22
4.2
4.5
4.12
3.73
41.26
5.43
2.92
6.83

Political turmoil and social unrest have


dampened Egypts short-term
economic outlook, increasing
unemployment and affecting the
tourism, manufacturing and export
sectors in particular. Egypt has been
relatively resilient to the global financial
crisis, and was poised for a fast recovery.
However, increased perception of risk
post-revolution led to a significant drop
in growth, though the potential is there
for a rekindling of the economy once
the political situation settles.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Israel
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.7
217.7
13.8
17.3
10.4
0.0
8.3
7.4
40.1
76.0
8.2
3.8

2011
4.6
243.7
9.1
8.2
13.6
0.0
7.1
7.5
40.3
74.1
1.9
0.8

2012
2.9
246.8
6.6
0.3
14.3
0.0
7.0
7.7
40.8
73.3
-5.2
-2.1

2013
3.2
259.1
2.0
4.0
14.6
0.0
7.0
7.9
41.2
72.9
-3.3
-1.3

2014
3.6
273.8
5.5
6.9
14.5
0.0
6.5
8.0
41.2
71.8
-1.9
-0.7

2015
3.7
288.8
5.5
7.4
14.4
0.0
6.5
8.2
41.4
70.5
0.3
0.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$75,647 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

66.56
64.67 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.2
6
7.8
6.7
6
67.5
8
5.7
6.9
6
6.1
4
61.19
6.9
5.8
6.83
6.17
64.38
6.23
7.29
8

2011
6.2
6.7
6.7
7.2
5.4
64.25
7.9
6.4
6.9
7.4
5.5
4.3
64.1
6.6
6.4
7.38
7.13
68.75
7.21
7.08
5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Israel has well-developed agricultural,


technology, and industrial sectors,
which may get a boost with the recent
discovery of large reserves of gas off the
coast, perhaps ending a near total
reliance on imported energy. Export
growth slowed dramatically in 2012, but
is set to recover in 2013. GDP growth
should be over 3% in 2013.

153

COUNTRY PROFILE

Jordan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.3
26.4
-0.7
9.5
3.4
0.0
12.5
6.1
24.9
66.8
-1.9
-7.1

2011
2.6
28.9
-0.9
12.2
5.5
0.0
12.9
6.3
26.4
70.4
-3.5
-12.0

2012
3.0
31.4
2.3
6.8
6.5
0.0
12.9
6.4
25.2
75.0
-4.4
-14.1

2013
3.5
33.8
0.0
11.0
6.1
0.0
12.9
6.5
25.8
79.6
-3.3
-9.9

2014
4.0
36.8
0.0
7.2
6.0
0.0
12.9
6.7
26.6
79.4
-2.8
-7.7

2015
4.5
39.8
-0.7
7.2
5.4
0.0
12.9
6.8
27.5
76.4
-2.0
-5.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$9,287 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

44.02
46.36 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

154

2012
5
5.1
5
4
3.4
44.67
5.8
5.5
5.9
5.5
4.7
4.1
52.72
4.7
4.9
5.05
4.89
48.78
3.79
3.13
3

2011
5.1
5.8
5
3.6
3.3
45.73
5.4
5.3
6.1
5.7
4.7
4.3
52.66
4.7
5
4.85
4.85
48.34
5.21
3.13
4

As a small economy with limited natural


and financial resources, the Jordanian
economy is fragile with GDP growth
halving over two years as the global
downturn impacted the countrys
textile, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and
tourism industries.The Syrian civil war
has disrupted trade and the economic
burden of the refugee crisis is stretching
the economic resources of the
government. Nevertheless, the IMF sees
growth maintained.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Kuwait
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.5
119.9
11.6
1.2
0.0
61.8
2.1
3.6
68.4
10.9
38.3
31.9

2011
8.2
161.0
-3.9
18.3
0.0
96.7
2.1
3.7
67.6
8.1
70.8
44.0

2012
6.3
174.6
13.7
9.4
0.0
105.9
2.1
3.8
69.6
7.2
77.0
44.1

2013
1.9
175.2
10.4
-4.1
0.0
100.7
2.1
3.9
69.3
7.1
68.7
39.2

2014
3.3
177.1
8.9
0.3
0.0
96.9
2.1
4.0
67.7
6.8
63.7
36.0

2015
3.9
181.5
8.2
2.1
0.0
94.9
2.1
4.1
66.3
6.5
61.2
33.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$29,260 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

71.63
68.44 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.2
6.2
7.8
7.2
8.9
74.47
7.6
5.7
4.9
5.2
4.8
5.4
56.25
5.7
5.2
5.87
5.87
56.5
10
8.75
8

2011
6.5
6.2
7.4
7.3
8.5
71.91
7.5
5.2
4.9
5
4.4
5.1
53.61
5.6
5
6.05
5.59
55.68
7.6
8.75
8.38

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Petroleum accounts for approximately


half of Kuwaits GDP, 95% of its export
revenue, and 95% of government
revenue. Some inroads have been made
in diversifying the economy, but
bureaucratic gridlock is holding up
capital spending plans which may cause
a significant slowdown in 2013.

155

COUNTRY PROFILE

Libya
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.7
73.6
3.6
-0.8
4.5
45.4

2011
-59.7
35.7
-47.8
-79.0
1.1
12.7

2012
121.9
85.1
148.2
358.3
5.7
57.5

2013
16.7
97.6
26.4
8.7
8.4
59.0

2014
8.3
102.2
10.7
3.2
5.5
59.0

2015
8.6
109.8
7.6
3.8
6.0
59.6

6.5
66.0
0.0
14.6
19.8

6.5
38.5
0.0
0.5
1.3

6.6
70.4
0.0
18.6
21.8

6.7
64.0
0.0
10.0
10.3

6.9
63.7
0.0
4.8
4.7

7.0
62.3
0.0
1.8
1.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$71,990 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

28.11
21.46 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

156

2012
4.2
4.1
4.7
4.3
4.8
44
4
2.6
1.8
2.3
2
3.4
27.07
3.2
5.4
3.65
3.05
38
0
0
3

2011
3.1
3.6
3.5
4.3
3.9
36.67
2.7
2.3
2
1.9
1.7
2
21.1
3.8
5.3
3.92
3.5
41.25
0
0
0

The political climate in Libya will


remain volatile for the foreseeable
future, and a lack of capable institutions
will hold back reconstruction efforts.
Technical and financial assistance from
development banks and multilaterals is
vital for the economys long-term
growth potential, but a strong rebound
should see robust growth.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Morocco
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.7
90.8
-0.5
19.3
8.1
0.2
9.1
31.9
27.5
51.3
-3.9
-4.3

2011
4.9
99.3
7.2
4.2
11.1
0.9
8.9
32.2
27.6
54.3
-8.0
-8.0

2012
2.9
97.2
6.0
8.9
11.7
0.9
8.8
32.5
28.3
58.1
-7.6
-7.9

2013
5.5
103.3
8.5
13.8
11.5
0.9
8.7
32.9
28.1
58.9
-5.6
-5.4

2014
5.1
111.0
6.6
6.3
10.9
0.9
8.6
33.2
27.5
59.1
-4.5
-4.0

2015
5.3
119.4
7.1
5.1
10.7
0.8
8.5
33.5
27.3
58.5
-4.3
-3.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$16,758 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

45.78
47.62 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.5
4.8
4.5
4.7
3.7
46.33
5.8
4.4
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.6
48.82
5.1
5.1
5.43
4.6
50.58
4.51
4.17
3.5

2011
4.6
4.9
5
4.5
3.7
45.2
4.8
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.5
4.3
44.13
4.9
4.9
5.08
4.48
48.3
4.99
4.17
6.83

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Sustained economic growth of above


5% should feature in 2013 as Morocco
pursues its model of increasing
economic openness and liberalisation. A
boom in the agricultural sector and
growing domestic demand should offset
any fall in exports caused by the
Eurozone crisis.

157

COUNTRY PROFILE

Oman
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.0
59.2
5.1
7.6
0.0
25.2

2011
5.4
72.7
6.3
3.0
0.0
33.4

2012
5.0
80.0
14.9
5.6
0.0
35.9

2013
3.9
82.9
12.2
3.2
0.0
35.3

2014
3.2
83.7
10.0
2.0
0.0
32.7

2015
3.4
85.1
9.6
3.0
0.0
30.1

3.0
39.0
5.3
5.1
8.6

3.1
41.4
5.0
12.2
16.7

3.2
41.1
5.5
11.2
14.0

3.3
40.7
6.1
8.3
10.0

3.4
38.3
6.9
4.3
5.1

3.5
36.0
7.6
0.5
0.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,616.40 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

67.79
66.23 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

158

2012
6.1
6.4
8.1
6.2
7.5
68.44
7.8
5.8
5.2
6.1
5.1
6.5
60.8
5.6
5.5
6.07
5.29
55.94
9.22
7.19
7

2011
5.9
6.6
7.9
5.9
7.5
67.67
7.3
5.8
5.6
6.1
5.1
5.6
59.13
5.3
5.5
6.02
5.27
55.17
7.6
7.19
7.88

High oil prices mean Omans economy


enjoys strong, steady growth. Rising oil
and gas output allows for increases in
government spending on infrastructure
and further diversification of the
economy away from its dependence on
petrochemicals. GDP growth will drop
slightly in the coming years, but remains
at a respectable level.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Qatar
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
16.7
127.3
11.1
33.6
0.0
72.6

2011
14.1
173.5
9.9
11.8
0.0
105.5

2012
6.3
184.6
11.7
0.6
0.0
102.8

2013
4.9
190.9
11.1
4.7
0.0
101.1

2014
5.1
197.5
11.0
-1.3
0.0
96.8

2015
6.3
208.8
5.0
-2.0
0.0
91.9

1.7
30.9
38.7
33.9
26.7

1.8
38.6
32.3
52.4
30.2

1.8
39.1
35.3
54.6
29.6

1.9
38.3
32.5
51.1
26.8

2.0
36.7
31.3
41.8
21.2

2.1
34.1
28.6
35.3
16.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$25,970 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

73.48
73.20 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.4
8
7.8
8
8.7
80
7.8
6.6
5.4
5.8
5.9
7.2
64.4
6
5.5
7.04
5.64
60.6
6.33
8.75
9

2011
7.4
8.1
7.5
7.6
8.7
78.43
7.6
6.7
5.5
5.5
5.8
6.6
62.66
6
5.1
6.81
5.16
57.83
7.34
8.75
9

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Qatars gas reserves have transformed


the economy but, as with the other Gulf
emirates, it is keen to diversify and
increase foreign investment. Petroleum
and LNG account for over 50% of
GDP, 85% of export revenue, and 70%
of government revenues. Large scale
infrastructure investment is ongoing,
particularly in the run-up to the 2022
Football World Cup. Growth remains
robust.

159

COUNTRY PROFILE

Saudi Arabia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.1
455.9
1.5
0.4
0.0
215.2
10.0
27.6
48.1
9.8
66.8
14.6

2011
7.1
597.1
3.9
4.7
0.0
317.6
n/a
28.2
53.3
6.1
158.5
26.5

2012
6.0
657.0
9.7
4.0
0.0
350.7
n/a
28.8
54.1
5.5
171.3
26.1

2013
4.2
682.6
5.8
0.0
0.0
343.8
n/a
29.4
51.7
5.3
155.1
22.7

2014
3.8
697.5
5.5
1.0
0.0
326.8
n/a
30.0
48.8
5.2
133.3
19.1

2015
4.3
722.2
5.1
3.0
0.0
318.4
n/a
30.6
46.4
5.0
124.5
17.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$626,800 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

67.27
63.58 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

160

2012
6.9
6.8
7.5
5.3
7.6
68.25
6.5
4.2
4.2
4.7
5
5.7
50.33
5.1
5.5
5.5
4.39
51.19
9.93
8.13
8.5

2011
7
7
7.1
5.3
7.5
67.67
6.1
4.2
4.1
4.9
4.9
5.2
49.07
5.1
5.5
5.28
4.57
50.95
7.6
8.13
7.88

Despite pervasive youth


unemployment, Saudi Arabia has so far
side-stepped its own Arab Spring with
only minor demonstrations. Economic
growth of 4.2% is expected for 2013
thanks to rising oil production and
increased downstream output as new
capacity comes onstream. Oil exports
account for over 45% of GDP, 90% of
export revenues and 85% of
government revenues.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Tunisia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.1
44.3
-2.1
5.5
2.7
2.3
13.0
10.5
30.1
40.5
-2.1
-4.8

2011
-1.8
46.0
-6.2
-7.9
3.4
2.6
18.9
10.7
31.7
44.4
-3.4
-7.3

2012
2.7
44.7
6.9
5.4
3.6
2.8
17.0
10.8
31.0
46.3
-3.6
-7.9

2013
3.3
45.6
3.5
4.1
3.8
2.9
16.0
10.9
29.8
51.5
-3.5
-7.7

2014
4.1
47.0
6.4
9.1
3.8
3.1
13.5
11.0
30.0
51.6
-3.3
-6.9

2015
5.3
49.2
7.9
10.8
3.8
3.4
12.9
11.1
30.0
50.6
-3.1
-6.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$6,630.50 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

45.95
45.17 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.5
4.8
4.3
4.6
3.5
43.38
5.9
4.8
5.2
4.6
4.9
4.7
50.25
5.8
5.5
5.81
4.92
54.9
3.93
3.96
4.5

2011
3.9
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.4
39.38
5
3.9
4.8
4
4.5
3.3
42.32
5.3
4.9
5.13
4.56
49.69
4.56
4.38
7

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Tunisia is still experiencing postrevolution unrest, but despite these


difficulties, the medium-term outlook
remains positive. It should be possible to
attract new flows of investment capital
as the country has a dynamic private
sector and a favourable geographical
location between Europe and Africa.
Unemployment remains high, but
beginning to come down over the next
two to three years as the situation
stabilises and growth ramps up.

161

COUNTRY PROFILE

Turkey
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
9.2
731.3
20.9
5.1
38.5
6.5
11.9
73.0
33.1
42.4
-46.6
-6.4

2011
8.5
774.3
11.9
6.4
54.1
6.5
9.8
74.7
34.6
39.3
-77.1
-10.0

2012
3.0
783.1
4.0
0.6
56.7
7.3
9.4
74.9
33.6
37.7
-59.0
-7.5

2013
3.5
839.0
2.3
2.4
52.8
7.5
9.9
75.8
33.0
36.7
-59.8
-7.1

2014
4.0
900.4
8.3
3.7
57.0
7.5
10.2
76.7
32.9
36.3
-66.9
-7.4

2015
4.3
980.6
9.3
3.9
61.1
7.5
10.2
77.6
32.9
36.3
-74.1
-7.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$118,362 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

57.01
56.73 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

162

2012
6.8
6.2
5.5
5.7
6.1
60.36
6.8
5.2
6
5.8
6.1
6.7
61
5.6
6.8
5.97
5.34
59.44
3.12
3.54
8

2011
7
6.1
5.4
5.2
6.1
59.38
6.5
5
5.9
5.7
6.1
6.7
59.78
5.5
6.8
5.71
5.23
58.02
3.74
3.33
8.13

The outlook for Turkey is positive, but


growth has dropped dramatically from
8.5% since 2011. Despite being on the
doorstep of the Eurozone crisis,Turkey
is well positioned to take advantage of
its positive demographics and its
strategic location connecting Europe
and Asia.There is much ECA
involvement in large-scale infrastructure
projects, particularly in the energy and
transportation sectors.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

United Arab Emirates


% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.3
283.9
-1.5
-4.2
0.0
74.6

2011
5.2
342.0
9.2
10.5
0.0
111.6

2012
4.0
361.9
9.8
6.8
0.0
118.8

2013
2.6
374.9
5.0
6.1
0.0
118.8

2014
3.1
387.2
5.7
7.6
0.0
116.0

2015
3.3
399.9
4.6
5.2
0.0
113.3

5.2
30.0
22.3
9.1
3.2

5.4
35.0
17.8
33.3
9.7

5.5
36.1
16.5
33.6
9.3

5.7
35.0
16.4
37.9
10.1

5.9
33.6
16.4
42.2
10.9

6.0
33.1
16.5
43.3
10.8

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$43,770 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

66.21
66.13 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
5.6
6.4
6.9
6.1
6.9
63.79
7
6.1
4.6
5.1
5.1
7.1
58.43
5.9
4.9
6.96
4.96
56.56
7.6
8.28
8

2011
5.3
6.4
6.6
6
6.8
62.21
6.8
6
4.8
5
4.7
6.8
56.88
5.6
4.7
6.68
4.71
54.21
2.82
8.13
9.25

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

It is unlikely the UAE will see the


double-digit growth of the last decade
any time soon, but levels of
approximately 4% should be achieved in
the near future as the non-oil sector
recovers. An improvement in the Dubai
real estate market and continuing
investment in Abu Dhabi are boosting
growth prospects. Dubais debt concerns
abated in 2012 as several troubled stateowned corporations managed to
restructure and refinance debts.

163

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


Egypt
Export Credit Guarantee Company of Egypt (ECGE)
5 El Nasr Street
Nasr City, Cairo 11371
Egypt
Tel:
(+202)2263 6740/ 6745/ 6762
Fax:
(+202)2263 6825
Email: ecge@internetegypt.com
Website: www.ecgegypt.net

Israel
ASHRA The Israel Export Insurance Corp
65 Menachem Begin Road
PO Box 20208, 61201 Tel Aviv
Israel
Tel:
(+972) 3 563 1700
Fax:
(+972) 3 563 1708
Email: info@ashra.gov.il
Website: www.ashra.gov.il

Jordan
Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation (JLGC)
24 Prince Shaker Ben Zaid Street, Shmeisani- Amman
PO Box 830703
Amman, 11183 Jordan
Tel:
(+962-6) 562 5400
Fax:
(+962-6) 562 5408
Website: www.jlgc.com

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Oman
Export Credit Guarantee Agency of Oman (ECGA Oman)
P.O. Box: 822, 100 Muscat, Oman
Tel:
+ (968) 2481 3979 / 2481 3980
Fax:
+ (968) 2481 2380
Email: info@ecgaoman.com.om
Website: www.ecgaoman.com.om

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Export Programme (SEP)
The Saudi Fund for Development
P.O. Box 50483, Riyadh- 11523
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Tel:
+966 1 4658117/4659399
Fax:
+966 1 4659699
E-mail: info@sep.gov.sa
Website: www.sep.gov.sa

UAE
Export Credit Insurance Company of the Emirates
P.O. Box 121616, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Tel:
+971 4 4298844
Fax:
+971 4 4298899
Email: info@ecie.ae
Website: www.ecie.ae

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165

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation
(Dhaman)
P.O BOX 23568
Safat 13096
State of Kuwait
Tel:
+965-2495-9000
Fax:
+965-2484-1240, 24815741/42
Tlx:
46312, 22562 Kafeel KT.
Email: info@dhaman.org
Website: www.iaigc.net

The African Development Bank


AfDB Temporary Relocation Agency (Tunis)
African Development Bank Group
15 Avenue du Ghana
P.O.Box 323-1002
Tunis-Belvedre, Tunisia
Tel:
(+216) 71 10 39 00/(+216) 71 35 19 33
Website: www.afdb.org
Email: afdb@afdb.org
Skype: afdb_acc
Statutory Headquarters
Rue Joseph Anoma,
01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01
Cte d'Ivoire
Email: afdb@afdb.org

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank)


72 (B) El Maahad El Eshteraky Street - Heliopolis, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
Postal Address: P.O. Box 613 Heliopolis, Cairo 11757, Egypt
Tel:
+202 24564100/1/2/3; (202) 24515201/2
Fax:
+202-24564110 +202-24515008
Email: mail@afreximbank.com | info@afreximbank.com
Website: www.afreximbank.com

166

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export


Credit (ICIEC)
PO Box 15722, Jeddah 21454, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Tel:
(+966) 2 644 5666
Fax:
(+966) 6443447
Website: www.idbgbf.org

International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC)


Islamic Development Bank Group, King Khalid Road, PO Box 55335
Jeddah 21534, Saudi Arabia
Tel:
+966 2 636 1400
Fax:
+966 2 637 1064
E-mail: info@itfc-idb.org
Website: www.itfc-idb.org

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

167

SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

Official agencies play a key role in the trade, export and commodity finance sectors in
Sub-Saharan Africa, with a heavy developmental twist to transactions and projects.
Power generation is in huge demand, and agribusiness and mining attract plenty of
interested players. SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has a presence in
Johannesburg. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
African trade and trade finance in the decade of the 2010s A new frontier emerges
Dr B. O. Oramah, Executive Vice President, Business Development and Corporate Banking,
African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank).
Country profiles
Angola
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
South Africa
Agency contact details

168

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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

African trade and trade finance in the decade


of the 2010s A new frontier emerges
By Dr B. O. Oramah, Executive Vice President, Business Development and Corporate
Banking, African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank)

Africas economic growth performance during the last dozen years has been
remarkable. Despite severe socioeconomic and financial crises that plagued the global
economy, notably the terrorist attacks on the US and Europe in 2001/2, global
financial and economic crisis in 2008/9 and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis that
began in late 2009; the continent once seen as a basket case is beginning to look like
it will soon turn the corner and become the bread basket of the world. From
abundance of water and arable land; rapid discoveries of oil and gas and other mineral
resources; to a flourish of cheap labour and a rising middle class, Africa is exhibiting all
the characteristics that can underpin a rapid sustainable growth in the years ahead.
Today, the continent enjoys good growth performance, despite seemingly
insurmountable challenges around the globe. For instance, it is the second fastest
growing region in the world behind Developing Asia. Real GDP of the continent
averaged a growth rate of 4.8% during 2001 to 2010, more than twice its pace in the
1980s and 90s (Figure 1). Further, over the ten years to 2010, six of the world's ten
fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa.

Figure 1: Africa growth rate of economic acitivity 1981-2010 (percent)

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Database, 2012

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169

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The changes being observed in Africas economic performance can be attributed to a
number of factors that are beginning to alter relations of production as well as the
structure and pattern of the continents participation in global trade. For the purposes
of this article, we will focus on three important factors that we believe are the most
important forces at play, namely (a) the rapid expansion of Africa-South trade; (b)
increased demand for investment goods by African economies; and (c) increased role of
African and other developing country institutions in African trade and project
financing.
The increasing role of large developing and emerging economies in the South, led by
China, India, Russia and Brazil, in global trade, international finance and investments,
has had a major impact on the strength and resilience of African economies. Africas
trade is already shifting rapidly toward developing or South markets, notably China,
Brazil and India.Trade between Africa and these dynamic markets, has been growing at
an average annual rate of 20% over the last decade, raising the share of the South in
Africas total trade to over 45% in 2011, from less than 18% in 1980 (Figure 2).
Additionally, Chinas trade with Africa has grown 15 fold, between 2000 and 2011;
rising from about $8 billion in 2000 to about $166 billion in 2011, making it Africas
single largest trading partner with a share of about 14 % of the continents total
merchandise trade in 2011, up from 3 % in 2000. India and Brazil have seen similar, if
less spectacular increases in trade relations with Africa. For instance, in 2010 India
replaced Germany as Africas fourth largest trading partner accounting for 5% of the
continents total merchandise trade.

Figure 2: Direction of Africas merchandise trade 2012 (percent)

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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The rising share of African trade by developing countries has significantly contributed to
Africas robust growth performance and resilience against external shocks. For instance,
when the Latin America and the Mexican peso crises broke in the 1980s and 1990s, the
African economy experienced serious downturns, contracting by 1% and 0.93% in 1983
and 1992 respectively. In contrast, the current crisis has had a mild economic impact with
real GDP only slowing from 5.1% in 2008 to 2.7% in 2009 (Figure 3). Further, the
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which began in late 2009, has had minimal impact on
Africas economic activity than was anticipated, with real GDP growth rate declining only
by 1% from 4.7% in 2010 to 3.7% in 2011. Even then the slowdown in 2011 could not be
fully attributable to the European debt crisis as the effect of the Arab uprising was also at
play. The rapid expansion in trade relations with the South economies has sustained a
strong demand for commodities, significantly offsetting the relatively weak demand from
the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
economies as financial and economic crises worsened in Europe.
An important new positive development arising from the changing trade relations is
that the composition of goods imported from South economies by Africa has shifted
significantly to include a large share of investment goods, especially infrastructure
goods (Figure 4). The import of these investment goods has been made possible by
generous credit terms extended to African buyers by these economies. One other
benefit that has either been underestimated or sometimes ignored is the positive
contribution of Africa-South trade to intra-African trade. The observed expansion in
Africa-South trade, which was accompanied by growing pace of FDI in-flows from
the South, estimated at $1.2 billion per annum during 2002-08, has aided improved

Figure 3: Africa trends in growth rate of real GDP (2005 = 100 percent)

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Database, 2012

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171

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
access to appropriately priced technology, and facilitated transfer of skills to many
African entrepreneurs. This, it is argued, underpins the marked growth in the
continents manufacturing total factor productivity, and consequently facilitated intraregional trade. Intra-African trade has accordingly flourished, rising from about $27
billion in 1995 to about $142 billion in 2011 (Figure 5). The trade is poised to rise
further as China expands the creation of industrial zones beyond those in Suez in
Egypt; Chambishi in Zambia; Lekki in Nigeria; Ogun State in Nigeria; Jinfei in
Mauritius; Oriental in Ethiopia; and Jiangling in Algeria.
Another important development is the evolution of Africas trade finance market in
the past decade. Apart from the changes that have followed diversification of Africas
trade, its trade finance market has also undergone some transformation due, in part, to
the persistent financial and economic crises that plagued Advanced Economies in the
2000s. The immediate impact of the current crisis was a significant deleveraging and
cuts in credit lines to developing countries, including Africa, as many international
trade finance banks sought to build up their balance sheets in response to market and
regulatory pressures. In 2012, for instance, trade-related bank lending (both short and
medium term) and syndicated lending to developing economies declined by 33% and
35% respectively compared to their levels in 2011. In terms of pricing, the spread on
bank and syndicated lending has widened sharply from the pre-crisis range of 100 to
150 basis points to a range of 250 and 350 basis points in 2011/12; tenors have also
shortened, mostly to less than 6 months.
The challenges in the Eurozone have contributed in preventing some international
banks from participating in the boom African trade is currently experiencing, leaving
the market to a few specialist banks. Thanks to the re-capitalization of many African
banks and changes in the regulatory regime in some African markets that have made it

Figure 4: Composition of Africas merchandise trade with the South* 2011 (percent)

172

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
easier for banks to internationalize their activities, many African banks have stepped in
to bridge the financing gap to some extent. For instance, recently in a deal coordinated
by Afreximbank, five Nigerian banks committed about $1.3 billion in support of an
Independent oil producing company operating in that market; in Cote dIvoire, the
annual trade finance needs of its national oil refinery in an amount of slightly under
$1 billion is fully funded by African banks; and in Zambia, the national oil import
requirements are virtually funded by African banks. Funding from Chinese and Indian
banks is also becoming very important with their EXIM banks providing liquidity
critical for the financing of investment goods imports into Africa.
The crisis also brought new opportunities for African governments and corporates to
diversify sources of trade and development finance and to begin deploying innovative
financial instruments to raise the needed medium and long term funds to support trade
and infrastructure projects. Consequently, we have over the last five years seen an
emerging trend of governments and corporates attempting, in most cases successfully, to
access international capital markets to raise medium-term debts to support projects. In
the 1990s sovereign bond issuances in international markets was limited to relatively
developed economies in Northern Africa and South Africa. However, since the mid2000s, attracted by high yields relative to the perceived risk, better macro-economic
fundamentals, external sector and investment reforms and political stability, foreign
investors have started investing in African sovereign debts. In 2012, for instance, many
African entities, including first timers, namely Angola and Zambia, successfully raised
sovereign and corporate bonds (with heavy over-subscriptions) from Eurobond markets
to finance trade-related infrastructure projects; other countries, namely Kenya, Rwanda,
Tanzania and Uganda are in the process of tapping the same market.

Figure 5: Intra-African trade 1995-2011 (US$ billion)

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Database, 2013

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173

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The emerging African trade realities have brought to the fore the need for African
Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) to find innovative financing solutions to
facilitate AfricaSouth trade; support the rising demand for investment goods and fill
the gap being created by on-going deleveraging by traditional trade finance banks.
Solutions to be deployed must recognise the inadequacy of the traditional structured
finance technique in supporting the emerging trade patterns and also be robust
enough to manage new risks and longer maturities.
In recognition of its leading role in promoting and financing African trade,
Afreximbank is leading the effort of attracting international banks to the changing
African trade finance market. It has created and deployed instruments that mitigate the
perceived risks that are seen to be emerging. For instance, the banks Country Risk
Guarantee Facility now has wider country and risk coverage; the bank is aggressively
promoting factoring as an instrument of choice in dealing with new markets and noncommodities trade; Africorrbanking has been introduced to enable Afreximbank share
partially or fully the credit risk of African banks opening letters of credit to be
confirmed by an international bank; and the bank is increasingly protecting
participants in syndicated deals it leads from country risk by acting as Lender of
Record in such deals enabling such participants to benefit from its preferred creditor
status in its member countries. In recognition of the existing challenges to financing
intra-African trade, Afreximbank designed a new programme, in 2011, called Intra
African Trade Facilitation Programme (INTRAFAP) to provide a platform for
mobilizing financial, technical and other resources for the development, promotion
and financing of intra-African trade. Further, due to the relevance of Africa-South
trade to sustaining Africas growth, Afreximbank has committed itself to undertake
programmes/activities, including research, organising seminars/workshops, participating
in/or co-organising trade fairs with major South institutions/governments to promote
their trade with Africa.
In 2012 Afreximbank in collaboration with China Exim, held a two-day seminar on
the sidelines of Afreximbanks 19th Annual General Meeting, during July 11-13, in
Beijing, China. A similar programme is planned in South America in collaboration
with Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (BLADEX), Corporacin Andina
de Fomento (CAF) and UNCTAD.To strengthen it in filling the financing gap created
by changing global realities, shareholders of Afreximbank have approved an increase in
the authorised capital of the Bank from $750 million to $5 billion in December 2012.
Equipped by this increase, the bank is in the market to raise additional equity.
What the foregoing confirms is that the times are challenging and exciting for African
trade finance practitioners. The good news is that Afreximbank is prepared to help
interested partners to seize the moment.
www.afreximbank.com

174

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COUNTRY PROFILE

Angola
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.4
82.5
-21.5
-3.3
3.2
49.4

2011
3.9
104.3
13.0
-6.3
5.2
65.7

2012
6.8
114.8
13.3
8.7
5.5
68.5

2013
5.5
123.9
7.4
3.2
6.0
70.0

2014
5.4
130.5
4.6
3.2
6.6
69.0

2015
5.4
138.6
6.2
3.2
7.1
68.2

19.1
43.5
37.6
7.4
9.0

19.6
48.8
31.5
10.0
9.6

20.2
45.5
28.0
9.8
8.5

20.8
44.5
29.2
8.2
6.6

21.4
43.3
30.9
5.8
4.4

22.1
41.7
33.0
2.5
1.8

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$30,600 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

38.71
37.45 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.7
6.2
3.7
4
5.2
47.8
4.1
3
2.8
3.6
3.3
5
36.02
2.6
3.4
3.75
3.15
32.06
4.84
2.5
3

2011
3.8
6.4
2.8
3.7
5
43.22
3.3
2.8
2.5
3.2
3.1
4.5
32.47
1.8
2.8
3.28
2.33
25.52
5.19
2.5
4.5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

GDP growth should remain above 6%


for next few years assuming that oil
prices remain at approximately their
current levels. Oil accounts for 50% of
GDP. New currency regulations for
foreign oil firms require the use of local
currency and the domestic banks.
Transport and communications require
a great deal more investment to cope
with rapid development and growing
trade with other fast growing
economies.

175

COUNTRY PROFILE

Ghana
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
8.0
32.2
33.0
42.6
2.2
0.0

2011
14.4
38.4
48.1
123.8
3.2
2.8

2012
8.2
40.1
3.1
18.6
3.1
2.6

2013
7.8
42.6
6.3
16.2
3.6
2.9

2014
8.2
48.6
9.6
16.1
3.5
3.1

2015
7.5
53.6
0.0
13.6
3.5
3.0

23.7
16.8
46.3
-2.7
-8.4

24.3
19.5
43.4
-3.5
-9.2

24.9
20.8
44.9
-3.7
-9.1

25.6
19.8
41.1
-3.0
-7.0

26.2
21.0
38.0
-4.0
-8.2

26.9
21.1
36.9
-2.7
-5.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$4,800 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

44.8
45.99 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

176

2012
4.8
6.5
4.5
4.5
3.9
48.35
5
4.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.2
50.59
3.2
4.4
3.71
3.41
36.84
4.85
1.56
5

2011
4.8
6.8
4.8
4.6
4
50
4.5
4.6
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.8
47.63
2.9
4.2
3.4
3.23
34.42
5.20
1.56
6.5

Ghana is one of the most stable


countries in Africa, and this is matched
by impressive economic growth of up
to 8% going forward.The economy
remains dependent on commodities,
traditionally gold and cocoa, and now
increasingly oil, so swings in
commodity prices can have a big
impact.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Kenya
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.8
32.2
8.1
6.2
2.7
0.1

2011
4.4
34.1
0.0
-7.6
4.1
0.1

2012
5.1
41.8
6.2
18.1
4.6
0.1

2013
5.6
49.8
6.7
4.6
4.9
0.1

2014
6.4
55.1
7.5
8.2
5.1
0.1

2015
6.2
62.6
8.4
6.9
5.3
0.2

39.7
24.6
49.9
-2.1
-6.5

40.9
24.9
48.5
-3.6
-10.6

42.1
26.2
47.2
-3.5
-8.5

43.3
26.2
45.3
-4.3
-8.6

44.6
26.8
45.3
-4.2
-7.6

45.8
25.5
44.2
-4.2
-6.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,282 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

35.16
39.01 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.6
4.5
4.3
3.9
3.3
41.07
3.2
2.8
4.1
4
3.5
3.7
35.72
3.2
3.6
3.87
3.3
35.08
4.73
1.88
2

2011
4.6
5
4.2
3.9
3.2
41.85
2.8
2.5
4.1
4.3
3.3
3.6
34.57
2.9
3.2
3.65
2.96
31.83
5.18
1.88
6.33

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Kenya is the largest economy in Eastern


Africa, and compared to its neighbours
is relatively diversified and the regional
commercial centre, making it less
vulnerable to commodity price
fluctuations. Agriculture, tourism and
increasingly manufacturing are the most
important sectors, and there has been a
lot of investment in developing
geothermal power. Solid levels of GDP
growth should continue.

177

COUNTRY PROFILE

Mozambique
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.1
9.5
1.7
-9.9
0.5
0.0

2011
7.3
12.6
25.6
1.8
1.0
0.0

2012
7.5
14.6
12.8
5.5
1.0
0.0

2013
8.4
15.8
7.1
2.9
1.1
0.0

2014
7.8
17.1
5.1
3.0
1.2
0.0

2015
7.8
19.1
6.8
6.3
1.2
0.0

21.6
29.5
41.1
-1.1
-11.7

22.0
30.0
36.8
-1.6
-12.8

22.5
30.1
42.0
-1.7
-11.6

22.9
28.3
46.2
-2.0
-12.4

23.4
28.6
48.9
-1.9
-11.1

23.8
28.9
49.2
-1.9
-10.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$2,469 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

36.22
35.76 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

178

2012
3.6
5.2
4.5
3.3
3.7
40.72
5.2
3.3
4.2
4.4
5.3
5
46.03
1.9
1.6
2
1.8
18.21
4.76
1.56
2

2011
2.7
4.5
4.4
3
3
35.17
5.4
3.2
4.1
4.7
5.4
5.4
46.99
1
0.3
0.5
0.83
6.67
4.89
1.56
4

Favourable demographics, stability, and


abundant natural resources in both the
extractive and agricultural sectors
should mean high levels of growth for
Mozambique in the coming years. A
few mega projects and the commodities
sector dominate foreign trade activity,
and there is potential for investment in
infrastructure.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Nigeria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
8.0
228.6
17.4
6.7
11.2
74.7
21.1
156.1
20.0
15.5
13.4
5.9

2011
7.4
244.1
5.6
-8.5
19.4
90.1
23.9
160.3
29.5
17.3
8.8
3.6

2012
7.1
272.6
6.7
6.1
21.3
96.8
n/a
164.8
26.4
14.7
9.5
3.5

2013
6.7
293.1
3.2
3.9
22.7
99.0
n/a
169.3
25.8
15.4
9.1
3.1

2014
6.6
312.5
9.2
3.2
23.2
96.9
n/a
173.9
24.3
15.9
8.7
2.8

2015
6.6
334.6
7.2
3.4
23.9
94.8
n/a
178.7
23.6
15.8
4.7
1.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$42,800 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

38.29
41.70 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.1
6.2
4
4.2
4.4
45.78
4.2
2.3
3.3
3.5
3.3
4.1
34.63
3.8
5.3
3.23
4.69
42.68
5.71
2.19
2

2011
3.9
6.5
3.7
4.1
4.3
44.8
3.8
2.3
3.3
3.3
3
3.9
32.71
3.8
5.3
3.14
4.44
41.78
5.87
2.19
6.38

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

With an economic growth rate of 7%, a


strong oil sector, and ambitious
infrastructure plans, Nigeria is a major
trade finance market. However, ethnic,
religious and socio-economic tensions
are endemic, and corruption remains a
problem. Aside from the oil industry
there is a great deal of investment in
power generation and transportation
with a great deal of export credit
involvement.

179

COUNTRY PROFILE

South Africa
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.9
363.5
9.6
4.5
11.2
0.0
24.0
50.0
27.5
35.3
-10.2
-2.8

2011
3.1
408.7
9.7
5.6
14.1
0.0
23.9
50.6
27.5
38.8
-13.5
-3.3

2012
2.6
390.9
4.7
3.1
14.5
0.0
24.4
51.2
27.3
41.2
-21.4
-5.5

2013
3.0
402.2
2.3
5.1
14.7
0.0
24.7
51.8
27.6
43.3
-23.5
-5.8

2014
3.9
422.3
4.4
5.8
14.5
0.0
24.5
52.4
27.9
44.9
-25.9
-6.1

2015
4.1
444.9
5.0
5.6
14.4
0.0
24.1
53.1
28.3
45.2
-26.2
-5.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$50,812 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

56.95
58.26 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

180

2012
6.4
5.1
5.3
3.4
5.3
51.08
6.7
4.7
6.2
5.9
6.2
5.9
59.38
5.4
4.9
5.86
4.14
50.67
4.9
5.83
8

2011
6.7
5.5
5.7
3.2
5.6
53.18
6.4
4.9
6.1
6.1
6.4
6.3
60.37
5.4
4.7
5.7
4.57
51.08
5.53
5.83
7.88

The government-driven infrastructure


programme focussed on power
generation and transmission, and
logistics and transportation, continues to
offset weak private sector investment in
South Africa. Domestic demand is
helping mitigate sluggish exports to
Europe and Asia, and is keeping GDP
growth at approximately 3% per
annum.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


Nigeria
Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM)
NEXIM House, Plot 975 Cadastral Zone A0, CBD, PMB. 276,
Garki, Abuja-Nigeria
Tel:
(234) 9 6281630-9
Fax :
(234) 9 6281640
Email: neximabj@neximbank.com.ng
Website: www.neximbank.com.ng

South Africa
Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation of Africa (CGIC)
31 Dover Street, Randburg 2125, South Africa
Tel:
(+27) 11 889 7000
Fax:
(+27) 11 886 1027
Website: www.creditguarantee.co.za

Export Credit Insurance Company of South Africa (ECIC)


36 Ingersol Road, Lynnwood Glen, Pretoria, South Africa
PO Box 528, Menlyn, 0063, Pretoria, South Africa
Tel:
+27 12 471 3800
Fax:
+27 12 471 3850/1
Email: cthirion@ecic.co.za
Website: www.ecic.co.za

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181

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


The African Development Bank
AfDB Temporary Relocation Agency (Tunis)
African Development Bank Group
15 Avenue du Ghana, P.O.Box 323-1002, Tunis-Belvedre, Tunisia
Tel:
(+216) 71 10 39 00/(+216) 71 35 19 33
Email: afdb@afdb.org
Skype: afdb_acc
Website: www.afdb.org
Statutory Headquarters
Rue Joseph Anoma, 01 BP 1387 Abidjan 01, Cte d'Ivoire
Email: afdb@afdb.org

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank)


72 (B) El Maahad El Eshteraky Street - Heliopolis, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
Postal Address: P.O. Box 613 Heliopolis, Cairo 11757, Egypt
Tel:
+202 24564100/1/2/3; (202) 24515201/2
Fax:
+202-24564110 +202-24515008
Email: mail@afreximbank.com | info@afreximbank.com
Website: www.afreximbank.com

African Trade Insurance Agency


Kenya Re Towers, 5th Floor, Off Ragati Road, Upperhill
Mailing Address: P.O. Box 10620, G.P.O. 00100, Nairobi, Kenya
Tel:
+254 (0)20 272 6999 / 271 9727
Fax:
+254 (0)20 271 9701
Cell:
+254 722 205 007, +254 733 625 511
Email: info@ati-aca.org
Website: www.ati-aca.org

DBSA Development Bank of Southern Africa


Development Bank of Southern Africa
Headway Hill, 1258 Lever Road, Midrand, South Africa
Tel:
+27 11 313 3911
Fax:
+27 11 313 3086
Website: www.dbsa.org

182

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

THE AMERICAS

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

183

EXPORT & AGENCY FINANCE

Export & Agency Finance Case Study:


Etileno XXI Project
By Mini Roy, Director, Head of Export & Agency Finance and Americas Structured Trade
& Commodity Finance for GTFD

Agency Finance has become a major force in project financing. Prospective changes in
capital requirements for long term assets proposed in Basel III has reduced bank
appetite for long term risk. Agencies, multilateral banks, development agencies and
banks and export credit agencies have stepped in to support major investments globally.
Agencies have provided support by lending directly, providing credit guarantees and
political risk cover. An example of this in the Americas is the Etileno XXI project in
Mexico.
Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. known as the Etileno XXI project, is a greenfield
petrochemical plant that will be built in the Coatzacoalcos region in Veracruz, Mexico
by a Brazilian sponsor, Braskem and a Mexican sponsor, Grupo Idesa. The project will
include an ethane cracker and three polyethylene plants with a nameplate capacity of 1
million metric tons per year. The project is targeted to be operational by 2015. Total
project costs are anticipated to be $4.5 billion. SMBC was financial advisor and
mandated lead arranger, successfully closing $3.2 billion of financing for the project in
December 2012. The entire debt financing had agency involvement. . Financing came
from export credit agencies: SACE (Italy) for $600 million and EDC (Canada) for
$300 million). Multilateral agencies International Finance Corporation, the private
sector arm of the World Bank group (IFC) and the InterAmerican Development
Bank (IDB) the leading source of development finance in Latin America and the
Caribbean with $285 million each for A-Loans and $700 million total B-Loans.
Development banks, Bancomext and Nafin from Mexico provided $400 million and
BNDES from Brazil offered $623 million in export and investment financing. Ten
international financial institutions funded under multilateral B-Loans and SACE
guarantees.
The genesis of this project goes back to September 2009 when Pemex awarded a longterm, take or pay contract to Braskem and Idesa. SMBC started working with the
Sponsors on structuring the financing in 2010 and from the beginning it was clear that
given the economic climate, the project faced financing challenges namely the size of

184

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & AGENCY FINANCE


the project, long tenor required, higher leverage, and the requirement for nonrecourse financing. Given the state of the global banking sector, the Sponsors quickly
concluded that that the financing
would have to be anchored by
official
agencies
financing.
Moreover, since the project
basically depends on the supply of
ethane, which is solely coming
from Pemex, the project also has
to assume Pemex long term risk
performance risk. This risk, the
size
of
this
South-South
investment and the importance
that the project has in the
economic
development
of
Mexico made the IFC and IDB ideal partners. Naturally the involvement of Braskem
and the importance of the project for Mexico, BNDES and Bancomext and Nacional
Financiera were expected to be supportive of the project.

The successful closing of Etileno XXI


demonstrated the ability of diverse
agencies to work together, catalyse
private lending and make this
landmark investment possible.

The Etileno XXI project represented many firsts:


1)

First time the private sector will participate in the petrochemical industry in
Mexico.

2)

First time BNDES used their newly created internationalisation line to support
the expansion of Brazilian entities abroad.

3)

First project financing of this magnitude in Mexico.

4)

The largest inter-American investment ever made.

SMBC believes that the Etileno XXI financing structure represents the new normal
in for large project financing markets: Large projects anchored, and sometimes fully
financed by official agencies sometimes with very large commitments are no longer
unusual. Agency investment requirements need to be considered, in particular for
environmental and social impact assessments.The due diligence process for Etileno XXI
took approximately 18 months, may also be the new normal given the level of scrutiny
that agencies and co-lenders put on each component of the financing structure. The
successful closing of Etileno XXI demonstrated the ability of diverse agencies to work
together, catalyse private lending and make this landmark investment possible.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

185

NORTH AMERICA
NEW YORK, USA

Two of the most active and pioneering export credit agencies; the worlds largest
agricultural export market; government commitment to double exports; the early
stages of a new Asia-focussed free trade area; and some of the most innovative
technology providers to drive trade and supply chain all make the North American
market one of the most interesting regions in trade finance. SMBCs Global Trade
Finance Department has a major presence in New York. For full details see the SMBC
Global Directory.

Contents
USA: Exports hit record levels US exports reached $186.4 billion in December 2012, and
rise to a record annual total of nearly $2.2 trillion for the full year 2012
Outlook 2013: Let it rise Peter G. Hall,Vice-President and Chief Economist, EDC
The new US-Asia trade paradigm: The prospects and challenges of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership negotiations in 2013 P.Welles Orr, Sr. International Trade Advisor at Miller &
Chevalier Chartered
Country profiles
Canada
United States
Agency contact details

186

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NORTH AMERICA

USA: Exports hit record levels


US exports reached $186.4 billion in December 2012, and rise to a record annual total of nearly
$2.2 trillion for the full year 2012.

Capping off the year, the United States exported $186.4 billion in goods and services
in December 2012, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of
the US Commerce Department.
US exports of goods and services in 2012 reached a record annual total of nearly $2.2
trillion ($2.195 trillion), which is 39.1% above the level of exports in 2009 when the
Obama administration launched its
National Exports Initiative. Over
the past 12 months, exports have
been growing at an annualised rate
of 11.6% when compared to 2009.

Todays record-breaking
numbers show that US exports
in 2012 continued on a historic
path of growth.

Todays record-breaking numbers


show that US exports in 2012
continued on a historic path of
growth, says US Ex-Im chairman
and president Fred Hochberg.
Thanks to the hard work and
ingenuity of our exporters, America is making steady progress towards meeting
President Obamas National Export Initiative goal of doubling exports. Over the past
year, US companies big and small have exported almost $2.2 trillion worth of goods
and services, fuelled by the power of American innovation.
But we cannot stop here. More can and must be done to increase international sales
and create jobs in the United States. Through our nationwide Global Access for Small
Business initiative, Ex-Im Bank is reaching out locally to more small and mediumsized businesses to provide them with the export financing and training they need to
succeed globally, Hochberg adds.
Over the last 12 months, among the major export markets (i.e., markets with at least
$6 billion in annual imports of US goods), the countries with the largest annualised
increase in US goods purchases, when compared to 2009, occurred in Panama (52%),
Chile (42.2%), Russia (41.4%), Peru (37.9%), Venezuela (37.6%), Argentina (36.2%),
United Arab Emirates (36%), Hong Kong (33.4%), Turkey (32.9%) and Columbia
(31.7%).

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187

NORTH AMERICA
US Ex-Im itself has a fourth consecutive record-breaking fiscal year with over $35.7
billion in export financing supporting 255,000 US jobs and $50 billion in exports.
The Made in the USA brand has never been stronger, fuelled by the strength of
American exporters and the work President Obama has done to grow our economy,
comments Hochberg. FY 2012 authorisations, at over $35.7 billion, were up about
10% from the year before, and more than double the amount from FY 2008. In the
past five years, US exporters working with US Ex-Im have created or sustained over 1
million private sector jobs. And weve done it all at no cost to the American taxpayer,
as Ex-Im has sent $1.6 billion to the US Treasury over the past five years.
Hochberg adds: By these measures and others, the past five years have seen nothing
less than a revolution in export-driven economic development.

Agencies to drive Pacific energy pact


US Ex-Im and the US government development agency, the Overseas Private
Investment Corporation (OPIC), will play a major role in the US-Asia Pacific
Comprehensive Partnership For A Sustainable Energy pact.
Recognising that energy and the environment are among the most pressing issues
confronting the Asia Pacific region, President Obama, in partnership with Sultan Haji

Highlights from US Ex-Ims Financial Year 2012


l
l

188

FY 2012s over $35.7 billion in authorised export financing was 10% greater than
FY 2011, and more than double the amount from FY 2008.
During the four years since FY 2008, the bank has financed transactions that have
enabled more than $170 billion worth of American exports, supporting nearly
1 million American jobs.
Since FY 2008, the volume of Ex-Im export financing directly benefitting
American small businesses has nearly doubled from $3.2 billion to $6.1 billion in
FY 2012, a 92% increase in four years.
Support for women- and minority-owned small business exporters was one of
the fastest growing market segments, with loans up almost 17% this year a new
record.
A four-year emphasis on Government at the Speed of Business has, in FY 2012,
resulted in 90% of all transactions being processed within 30 days and 98% were
processed within 100 days.
In FY 2012, Ex-Im provided more than $5.1 billion in infrastructure-related
financing, a 433% increase over FY 2008 and an enormous opportunity for
American exporters.
Geographically, Asia and the Middle East were the banks largest regions in FY
2012, with a $9.5 billion increase over FY 2011. Ex-Im supported exports in subSaharan Africa have tripled over the past four years.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

NORTH AMERICA
Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei and President of the Republic of Indonesia Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, have proposed the US-Asia Pacific Comprehensive Partnership
For A Sustainable Energy Future.
The partnership will offer a framework for consolidating and expanding energy and
environmental cooperation across existing regional forums to advance efforts to ensure
affordable, secure, and cleaner energy supplies for the region. Bilateral and multilateral
energy and environmental initiatives are flourishing in the Asia Pacific, and the US,
Brunei, and Indonesia, will help coordinate and enhance these efforts, share best practices,
and leverage existing initiatives across the various forums that undertake this work.
The partnership will drive investment and facilitate progress on four key regional
priorities: renewables and cleaner energy; markets and interconnectivity; the emerging
role of natural gas; and sustainable development.
Governments will engage with the private sector as well as partner countries in the
region to determine specific projects within the four priority areas. There will also be
close consultation and cooperation with the World Bank and the Asian Development
Bank to enhance their work in the region on these issues.With an estimated $9 trillion
needed in investment in electricity alone through 2035 to meet growing demand in
the region, there is enormous potential for US industry to play an important role in
the regions energy future.
The US role will provide up to $6 billion to support the partnership including:
l

US Ex-Im will launch a programme to make available up to $5 billion in export


credit financing to eligible countries in the region over the next four years to
increase access to American technology, services and equipment for the
implementation of energy infrastructure projects;

OPIC will provide up to $1 billion in financing for sustainable power and energy
infrastructure projects.

US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) will support programmes in


partner countries in the areas of power generation, power distribution
modernisation, assistance with upgrading grid efficiencies to accommodate
renewable power, and unconventional gas development.

The US State Department will oversee a $1 million energy capacity-building fund


to support partnership activities via project preparation and technical assistance.

The partnership will build upon the existing energy initiatives in the region, including
the ASEAN-United States Energy Cooperation Work Plan, the APEC Energy
Working Group, the East Asia Summit Energy Ministers and other forums to expand
practical cooperation across the region, promote greater energy connectivity and
integration, and encourage collaborative work across these and other forums, including
through joint capacity building efforts.

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189

NORTH AMERICA

Outlook 2013: Let it rise


By Peter G. Hall,Vice-President and Chief Economist, EDC

Another New Year, and a chance for a fresh start. Will this prove to be the one that
finally fires up the global economy? To answer, its tempting to borrow from Berra in
many ways, it seems like deja vu all over again. For three successive years, the world
economy has started well, and then fizzled mid-year. Are we in for the same again, or is
it different this time can we genuinely say with firm hope,

Happy New Year?


Make it four we do indeed have momentum going into 2013. The US economy
remains resilient, with the housing sector, the mighty consumer and the noncommittal business sector all finishing last year with a solid burst of activity. Its all the
more impressive in light of the Hurricane Sandy disruption and the end-year fiscal cliff
impasse. Large emerging markets, notably China, are reigniting. Europes numbers are
not as buoyant, but lower fiscal drag in 2013 suggests impending improvement.
On its own, momentum isnt enough the past three years are proof enough. But the
hidden blessing in the delayed global recovery is the rise of pent-up demand. Four
years of suppressed activity have exhausted the excesses of the past cycle, and the world
economy is poised to return to normal levels of activity.
Are demand pressures now sufficient to overcome the ever-present threats to growth?
Unfortunately, Out with the old is easier said than done. Europe and Japan cannot
simply shrug off their monstrous public debts, and dithering on its debt dilemma could
cost America dearly. Exposed as they are to these debts, financial markets remain jittery.
Political instability particularly in the Middle East and North Africa remains a key
threat to growth. Emerging markets need to prove that they are truly on the mend, and
can overcome higher short-term food and energy prices. These risks are all
exacerbated by persistent low confidence, which causes markets to overreact to every
new twitch.

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The threats are hefty, but so is the
pent-up demand pressure. This
development could take the
economy to a new phase, unlike
2009-10 where huge stimulus was
supposed to engineer a rise in
activity, and 2011-12, where we
merely hoped for a rise. Now, as the
economy is growing more
organically, we are in a better
position to just let it rise.

On its own, momentum isnt


enough the past three years
are proof enough. But the
hidden blessing in the delayed
global recovery is the rise of
pent-up demand.

Growth is forecast to begin in the


US economy, and spread to the rest
of the world. Momentum is
strongest there, and will push
growth to 2.8 per cent this year. Europe and Japan will be laggards, but higher US
performance will help emerging markets to power up again. This will lift world
growth from 3.3 per cent last year to 3.8 per cent in 2013, and set the stage for an even
higher growth trajectory as we move into next year.
Higher export potential is coming to Canada just in time. With housing markets
faltering, consumers running out of steam and fiscal withdrawal further eroding
growth, our economy will be more trade-dependent in the medium term. Thankfully,
export growth is forecast to rise from 3.5 per cent in 2012 to 6.6 per cent this year.
Growth will be well distributed, led by key primary industries, and with metals and
advanced technology bringing up the rear.
The bottom line? Years of hoping for something better than the mediocre stuff we saw
has us all more jaded about future prospects. Higher growth addresses the big risks, and
helps to quell our persistent fears and its on the way. Happy 2013!

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The new US-Asia trade paradigm:


The prospects and challenges of the TransPacific Partnership negotiations in 2013
By P.Welles Orr, Sr. International Trade Advisor at Miller & Chevalier Chartered

2013 could well end up being one of the busiest years for the proliferation of bilateral,
regional and multilateral free trade agreements around the world and heavily
dependent on US leadership. Despite the diminished prospects for reviving the 12 year
old, moribund Doha Development Round in the World Trade Organization, the
ambitious US trade agenda, called for by outgoing US Trade Representative Ron
Kirk is coming true. For starters, the second-term Obama Administration is expected
to be fully engaged in moving to conclusion the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership
(TPP) negotiations; has just formally announced to the Congress its intention to enter
into negotiations with 20 trading partners for a comprehensive agreement on trade in
services and may soon announce the launch of a comprehensive US-European Union
Free Trade Agreement. And not to mention ongoing efforts under the WTO to finalise
a trade facilitation agreement and to conclude an expanded Information Technology
Agreement (ITA) combined with possible bilateral investment treaty negotiations with
India and China. Also look for the US negotiating agenda to include expanding trade
partnerships in Africa, especially the East African Community Trade and Investment
Partnership.

Background of TPP and Its Potential


Arguably, the TPP negotiations have occupied the drivers seat of US trade policy over
the past three years and since passage of the FTAs with Colombia, Panama and South
Korea in 2011. The TPP came about as a result of a 2008 FTA between Brunei, New
Zealand, Chile and Singapore. In 2010, the US, Australia, Malaysia, Peru and Vietnam
formally joined the fray after the third round of negotiations. Since then, Canada and
Mexico have joined in and 15 rounds, covering 26 chapters have been completed
toward what is deemed should be a comprehensive and high-standard, 21st century
free trade agreement that will liberalise trade in almost all goods and services and

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secure commitments and new trading disciplines that go beyond WTO rules.
Negotiators seek an agreement that not only eliminates tariff and non-tariff barriers to
core negotiating sectors such as market access for agriculture, goods and services, and
rules governing intellectual property protection, foreign investment, trade remedies,
labor and environment commitments the traditional FTA sectors but it delves into
new horizontal and cross cutting issues such as E-Commerce, competitiveness and
supply chains, state-owned and small to medium-sized enterprises and regulatory
coherence.

TPPs economic impact for the US


For the US, the TPP represents a continuum of successful market opening
undertakings going back to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in
1993 with Canada and Mexico and then successive bilateral FTAs with, Australia,
Singapore, Chile and Peru, all of whom are current TPP partners. Moreover, the TPP is
central to advancing both US international economic and security policy priorities in
Asia, the so-called pivot or rebalancing to Asia coined by Administration officials.
TPP countries account for more than 40% of worldwide trade and for the US, TPP
countries are the third largest goods export market, more than $1.25 trillion and
fourth largest services export market, more than $155 billion according to 2011
figures. According to data provided by the US International Trade Commission, six of
the current 11 TPP countries account for almost 95% of total US-TPP trade in goods.
These figures suggest that the real value for the US in terms of new market access
potential lies with middle income countries like Malaysia and merging economies
such as Vietnam, both of which have rapidly growing economies and populations.
While that does indeed provide good prospects for US exporters, critics maintain the
long term value prospect for the US is in achieving a TPP foundation agreement that
other, bigger economies can adopt down the road namely the likes of Japan, which
has expressed interest despite considerable political hurdles for certain sectors, and
Thailand and the Philippines whom have expressed interest in joining when the time
is right. South Korea is also an obvious future TPP participant, now that is has
implemented the US-Korea FTA last year, has an FTA with Peru and is currently
negotiating an agreement with Canada. If anything, the long term objective of the US
and the original signatories is to build on the regional free trade agreement model and
the consensus approach of the 21 member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) 2010 ministerial declaration in support of creating a Free Trade Agreement of
the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). The idea being that TPP was to be one of several regional
undertakings, along with already underway talks within the 10 member Association of
South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), specifically ASEAN+6 (China, Japan, South
Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand, now called the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP). In addition, the US has launched the Expanded
Economic Engagement Initiative called the E-3 which builds on the on-going US-

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NORTH AMERICA
ASEAN Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement
talks,
specifically on expanding trade and
customs facilitation, investment
rules and whats called Information
and Communication Technology
(ICT) principles which deal with
intellectual property, telecom and
e-commerce matters.This endeavor
announced by President Obama
during the East Asia Summit
meeting
in
Cambodia
in
November also seeks to prepare the
6 non-TPP ASEAN members in
joining the TPP at a future date.

2013 could well end up being one


of the busiest years for the
proliferation of bilateral, regional
and multilateral free trade
agreements around the world
and heavily dependent on
US leadership.

These overlapping partnerships and negotiations, often coined as economic


architectures, aimed at trade liberalization lead supporters and critics alike to bring up
the 800lb. gorilla China. US negotiators reject the notion raised by some close allies,
such Australia and New Zealand that Washingtons objective is to achieve a free trade
area that, in effect, walls in China. But this wouldnt be practical in any real sense and if
the TPP is to be a template for any successful future FTAAP, Beijing will have to be at
the table. It is unclear how Chinas future engagement in the regional trade construct
will play out. However, one can be certain that China is closing watching how the
TPP progresses in some key areas, specifically in how any agreement is forged over
disciplines on the role of state-owned enterprises (SOE).

Challenges ahead
The TPP agenda is daunting, and after 35 months of negotiations, there has been
progress in some areas, but there is much work left to do. Negotiators have yet to get
into the most politically sensitive sectors, particularly market access. Countries are still
very far apart on the scope of the basic SOE framework, IPR, investment, the
environment and on patent protections for medicines to name a few. Late last year,
negotiators set an October 2013 target date for conclusion but most trade watchers
think 2014 is a more realistic timeframe. Ambassador Kirk continues to say that
substance will determine the timing, but is optimistic a final TPP deal can be reached
in the near future. Focus now is on the 16th round to be held in Singapore early next
month.

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COUNTRY PROFILE

Canada
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.2
1,577.0
13.1
6.4
39.4
88.2
8.0
34.1
38.4
85.1
-49.4
-3.1

2011
2.4
1,739.0
7.0
4.6
52.6
113.3
7.5
34.4
38.3
85.4
-48.9
-2.8

2012
1.9
1,770.1
4.2
4.3
51.4
117.7
7.3
34.8
38.2
87.5
-59.9
-3.4

2013
2.0
1,839.1
4.6
3.4
50.4
121.2
7.3
35.3
38.6
87.8
-68.2
-3.7

2014
2.4
1,904.8
4.8
4.8
51.0
124.2
7.1
35.8
39.1
84.6
-71.1
-3.7

2015
2.4
1,974.0
4.5
5.5
51.5
126.6
6.9
36.2
39.5
82.3
-69.0
-3.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$68,222 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1

81.82
84.70 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
8.2
6.9
8
6.9
7
73.93
9
8.6
8.9
8.5
8.6
8.7
87.15
8.3
7.3
7.81
8.09
78.7
6.06
10
9.56

2011
8.5
7.4
8.2
7.3
7.4
77.4
9
8.8
9
8.5
8.8
9
88.37
7.8
7.3
7.95
8.12
77.95
7.24
10
9.88

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Canadas economy increasingly depends


on its trading relationships with
commodity export markets and
importers of capital goods.With the
global economy still looking gloomy,
there is likely to be little change in GDP
growth in 2013, perhaps partially
supported by a slow-burn recovery in
the US towards the end of the year.

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COUNTRY PROFILE

United States of America


% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.4
14,498.9
12.5
11.1
353.8
70.9
9.6
309.7
31.7
98.6
-442.0
-3.0

2011
1.8
15,075.7
4.8
6.7
462.3
113.2
9.0
311.9
31.4
102.9
-465.9
-3.1

2012
2.2
15,653.4
3.5
4.3
458.5
111.3
8.2
314.3
32.0
107.2
-486.5
-3.1

2013
2.1
16,198.0
3.6
4.3
464.9
110.2
8.1
317.3
33.2
111.7
-499.3
-3.1

2014
2.9
16,912.5
4.6
4.8
457.9
105.5
7.7
320.3
34.2
113.8
-523.2
-3.1

2015
3.4
17,768.4
5.3
5.0
453.2
101.1
7.1
323.3
35.0
114.2
-565.4
-3.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$150,079 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

74.65
76.28 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

196

2012
6.2
5.4
6.9
5.2
4.6
56.57
8.4
8.2
8.6
8.1
7.7
7.7
81.15
8.3
7.4
8.09
7.71
78.55
6
9.79
9.71

2011
6.1
5.7
6.8
5.2
4.6
56.89
8.8
8.4
8.7
8.3
8.1
8.2
83.99
8.1
7.6
8.18
7.64
78.68
6.51
9.79
9.92

The US economy is picking up but the


recovery remains sluggish for now.The
corporate sector has record profitability
and cash, but small businesses still have
trouble accessing credit though this is
improving.Threats to the recovery
remain including ongoing fiscal
problems for key trading partners in
Europe, and the threat of a budget
sequestration.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Export Credit Agencies


Canada
Export Development Canada (EDC)
150 Slater Street
Ottawa
Ontario K1A 1K3
Canada
Tel:
(1 613) 598 2500
Fax:
(1 613) 237 2690
Website: www.edc.ca

United States
Export-Import Bank of the United States (US Ex-Im)
811 Vermont Avenue
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20571
USA
Tel:
202-565-3946
Fax:
202-565-3840
Website: www.exim.gov

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197

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)
Inter-American Development Bank
1300 New York Avenue, Washington, DC 20577, USA
Public Information: (+1) 202-623-2096
E-Mail: business@iadb.org
Website: www.iadb.org

Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC)


Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Information Officer, Office of External Affairs
1100 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20527, USA
Tel:
(+1) 202 336 8400
Fax:
(+1) 202 408 5142
Website: www.opic.gov

PEFCO - Private Export Funding Corporation


280 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Tel:
212 916-0300
Fax:
212 286-0304
Website: www.pefco.com
www.pefco-smallbusinesslenders.com

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LATIN
AMERICA
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

With the infrastructure demands associated with upcoming World Cup and Rio
Olympics, there is much to be done in the trade finance sphere in Latin America. The
cities of Brazil though are just the tip of the iceberg, with huge infrastructure investment
required across the country and the wider region. Energy and petrochemicals continue
to account for a large portion of activity in the region, in conjunction with mining,
metals, pulp and agribusiness. In addition to its New York office, SMBCs Global Trade
Finance Network has a presence in Sao Paulo to cover the region. For full details see the
SMBC Global Directory.

Contents
Brazils economic performance a review Filipe Lage de Sousa - PhD from London
School of Economics (LSE) and Researcher at Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), and
Luiz Eduardo Miranda Cruz Economist at BNDES
Internationalisation as central to IDB strategy: Promoting SME export and investment
growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Country profiles
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador

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El Salvador
Guatemala
Mexico
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Agency contact details

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LATIN AMERICA

Brazils economic performance a review


By Filipe Lage de Sousa - PhD from London School of Economics (LSE) and Researcher
at Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), and Luiz Eduardo Miranda Cruz Economist
at BNDES

An economic challenge for any country is developing with price stability and income
inequality reduction. In this sense, the Brazilian economy represents an example for
other countries, at least in the last 10 years. Between 2000 and 2011, Brazils GDP
growth achieved an annual increase of 4% on average; far beyond the two previous
decades mean (2% per year). Regarding economic stability, inflation rate has remained
on average less than 5.5% annually from 2004 to 2012. Moreover, poverty rate has
declined from a quarter of Brazilian Population to around 10% during the same period
as a result of government conditional cash transfer programmes. These figures
demonstrate how Brazil is overcoming its socio-economic shortcomings by promoting
development based on three pillars: economic growth; stable environment; and social
improvements.There is a diverse range of factors explaining this success, from domestic
reasons, including anti-cycle policy design, to a favorable international environment.
Our aim here is to show how international trade has benefited or threatened the
Brazilian economy over the last years, as well as its opportunities and challenges.
It is common knowledge that the emergence of China as a world economic power has
improved terms of trade for the majority of developing countries, since commodities
prices had scaled up to an incredible level. According to the World Bank, those prices
have nearly quadrupled after China joined the World Trade Organization in
November 2001. As a consequence, there was an export boom in most countries in
which commodities are the main goods sold abroad. Brazil is not an exception to this
rule. Brazilian exports have increased from $55 billion in 2000 to $243 billion last year,
in other words, 13.1% annual growth. As a consequence, trade surplus was nearly $30
billion on average since 2002. This performance is a record for the Brazilian trade
balance, as this surplus has remained over $10 billion for more than 10 years, this has
never happened in the Brazilian economic history.

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LATIN AMERICA
Brazil is also considered one of the few countries able to boost agriculture production
by productivity increase in the years to come, in other words, without using extra land.
Recent productivity growth in this sector provides evidence for this argument.
Demand for food tends to increase as population in developing world is moving to
cities as well as there is a continuous enlargement of middle class in those countries.
Therefore, Brazil will remain an important player in international trade regarding food
market. Opportunities to expand its share in this market are expressive, since Brazil is
already very competitive and there are opportunities to increase value added by selling
more industrialized goods.
Although benefits exist, threats are also present. Imports have increased substantially,
especially in sectors based on scale and technology. According to a special publication
launched by BNDES to celebrate
its 60th anniversary1, deficits in
those sectors have increased steadily
in the last years, especially after
2006
when
Brazil
was
experiencing rapid GDP growth.
Although it was important to keep
inflation at a low rate at that
moment, as demand rise was over
domestic production expressive
increase, this fact might create a
pressure on these sectors in the
long run. If those dynamic sectors
shrink in an industrialized country
like Brazil, that may impinge
technological upgrade in all
sectors. Moreover, a shift in terms
of trade towards a different direction, as occurred recently, might be harmful in the
future. This would not be a drawback if those sectors were experiencing productivity
growth over national average, but only some of them have performed well according
to the last data available.

It is essential to have
growth based on social and
environmental sustainability,
since humanity should be able to
use natural resources in a more
efficient manner.

These import threats pose challenges. Asian countries, including China, are exporting
manufacturing goods in a crescent path over the last years, which means fiercer
competition in international market. There is a debate in the international arena on
whether other countries, including Brazil, will be able to continue selling
manufacturing goods if products from Asian countries, especially from China, remain
gaining market by charging a cheaper price. Moreover, exports from those countries
are moving towards most technological and sophisticated markets, where innovation is
crucial. If Brazil wants to keep its diversified economy and international
competitiveness, it should improve industry productivity faster than the recent
performance.

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LATIN AMERICA
Aware of those opportunities and challenges, it is relevant to emphasise that there is a
track which should be followed in the years to come. It is essential to have growth
based on social and environmental sustainability, since humanity should be able to use
natural resources in a more efficient manner. This efficiency will only be possible
through innovation, fuel for a real dynamism for the Brazilian economy. From this
idea, Brazil will be able to reach a new level of development and overcome the
middle-income trap.
In order to achieve this goal, government support is crucial. Brazilian Development
Bank (BNDES) has as its main duty promoting a sustainable development of the
Brazilian economy. For that, BNDES was able to change its operational rules over its
existence due to its capacity to understand the Brazilian economy stage. Bearing in
mind the country development level, it is feasible to draw new policies to address any
shortcoming as well as to take advantages of the opportunities found. Because of that,
when it was evidenced that domestic firms were lacking financial support to sell their
products abroad in the 90s, BNDES started to finance exports by creating its export
credit program BNDES EXIM.
BNDES EXIM provides trade financing to exporting companies established under the
Brazilian law. BNDES EXIM offers two credit lines: a) pre-shipment credit, which
supplies working capital for Brazilian exporters; b) post-shipment credit, which targets
the commercialization of exported goods and services through buyers or suppliers
credit category, in accordance with international standards.
There is traditionally an inadequate supply of medium and long-term trade finance in
developing countries. BNDES EXIM credit lines fill this gap, supporting knowledge
intensive products, such as high value-added manufacturing, software and engineering
services. These are goods and services that require longer terms for manufacturing
and/or commercialization. As such, they occupy a niche in the trade finance market in
which private banks in Brazil are unwilling to engage yet. As a result, the amount of

Figure 1: BNDES EXIM Disbursements, 1999-2012

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LATIN AMERICA
BNDES EXIM supported exports is small when all Brazilian exports are taken into
account, but noteworthy among high added value exports.
As it can be seen in figure 1, BNDES EXIM total disbursement increased from
$2.1 billion dollars in 1999 to $5.5. billion dollars by the end of 2012. The out of the
ordinary disbursements of 2009 and 2010 reflect the effects of the global financial
crisis. Trade finance dried up amid crisis, and developing countries were hit the
hardest. BNDES EXIM stepped in and provided trade finance when banks were
unable to do it. That explains the increase in the disbursement for this couple of years.
Since then the private sources of trade finance have returned and, as a result, BNDES
EXIM disbursements have decreased.
Figure 2 highlights the distribution of last year disbursements by type of product
financed. Capital goods represented 61% of the total disbursements of 2012. This
group includes buses, trucks, light commercial vehicles, industrial machinery and
equipment, and aircraft. The exports of engineering and construction services and of
software accounted for 26%. Labor intensive consumption goods, such as footwear,
textiles, processed food and furniture were 13% of the total.
Latin American countries have been a major destination of exports financed by
BNDES since the inception of the program in 1990. Figure 3 shows how postshipment disbursements were distributed among regions in 2012. Pre-shipment credit
is not included in this figure because the working capital supplied under this credit line
cannot be easily linked to a
particular country, as a given
Figure 2: BNDES EXIM Disbursements, 2012
disbursement can be used to
finance
exports
to
many
destinations at the same time. Postshipment credit, on the other hand,
is directly connected to a good or
service supplied to a particular
importer.

Figure 3: BNDES EXIM Post-Shipment Disbursements,


2012

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

According to the figure, Latin


America accounted for 49% of the
post-shipment disbursements in
2012, which amounted to $1
billion dollars of financed exports
that year. In the 90s, the main
exports supported by the credit line
were capital goods. Nowadays,
exports of Brazilian goods and
services for infrastructure projects
in the region represent most of the

203

LATIN AMERICA
credit supplied. The portfolio of these projects includes a large number of dams,
pipelines, aqueducts, subways, transmission lines and gas infrastructure.
The figure also shows that last year 31% of disbursements were directed to countries in
Africa. In the region, Angola is the leading export destination for Brazilian exports
financed by BNDES, involving mainly goods and services for infrastructure
development. These exports include the construction of hydropower plants,
transmission lines, highways, vocational training centers for the local population,
sanitation systems, water distribution pipes and an airport. Other African countries,
like Mozambique and Ghana, also relied on financing from BNDES for infrastructure
projects. USA, Europe and Asia total 20% of the financed exports under this credit line.
In 2012, aircraft stand as the main exports to these regions.
Future development of international trade is uncertain, as the main drivers of today
might not remain in the future. However, current situation in this arena provides
evidence that government support is relevant. Throughout its history, BNDES has
played a decisive role in the Brazilian economy, among which allowing domestic firms
to compete on equal terms in the foreign market, especially in value added export
goods.
NOTE
1 BNDES 60 Anos: Perspectivas Setoriais (2013). Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Forthcoming in English in
2013 (second term).

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Internationalisation as central to IDB strategy:


Promoting SME export and investment growth
in Latin America and the Caribbean

While market turbulence rattles the economic well-being of the developed world,
developing economies such as those in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are
expected to fare relatively well in 2013. The Economist expects up to 4% regional
growth an improvement from 2012. Sound political and economic policies in
Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia, monetary stimulus in Brazil and the increased
purchasing power of the regions emerging middle class will keep LAC on an upward
trajectory. Opportunities for continued growth exist through internationalisation
supporting local companies expand trade and investment on an intraregional and
global level.
Trade trends in LAC are slowing but still optimistic compared to other continents.
According to the Inter-American Development Banks (IDB) estimates, LACs exports
increased by only 1.5% in 2012, after growing rapidly (over 25%) from 2010 to 2011 as
the world rebounded from financial crisis. Imports also increased in 2012, advancing at
a slightly faster rate of 4%. LACs 2012 export growth was composed of 2.1% growth
in intraregional exports, 2.4% increase in North American exports and a decline of
over 5% in exports to Europe. During 2012 exports to Asia grew less than 1%.
Exports to the United States and Canada dominate LAC trade (41%) followed by
intraregional (18%) and Asian (17%) trade.1 Focusing on intraregional trade levels, Asia
and the European Union have significantly higher rates at 40% and 60%, respectively,
suggesting that the LAC region has room to establish new and higher volume trade
nearby. In a December 2012 report published by the IDB, trade trends fluctuate
significantly on a country-level. Growth in Mexican and Central American export
markets was offset by a contraction in Chilean and MERCOSUR countries, which
suffered from commodity price and demand declines. And Peru, Colombia and Bolivia
experienced strong export growth the consequence of the US market uptick and
their Asian market expansion.2

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LATIN AMERICA
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in LAC, on the other hand, spiked to a record high in
2011 capping out at $145 billion.3 China is playing a growing role in this influx of
capital but emerging opportunities exist for intraregional investment, especially in the
construction, manufacturing and natural resource sectors. The rise of the multilatina
the name given to multinationals with Latin American origins also explains the
swell in FDI in certain LAC countries. As of 2010, Brazil with 27 companies, followed
by Mexico and Chile with 15 and 14 companies, respectively, were the leading
countries with multilatinas investing both inside and outside the region.4

IDB engages the region to promote open trade and investment


For decades now, the IDB has been at the center of LAC trade and investment
expansion, collaborating with both the public and private sectors to finance traderelated projects, further the research and policy dialogue and position itself as a
knowledge leader. In fact, the IDB has made it one of its four operational priorities to
foster regional and global integration, and by the end of 2015 dedicate at least 15% of
all its operations towards activities that promote and facilitate this integration.The IDB
aims to strengthen the capacity of countries in LAC to benefit from an open trade and
investment regime and pursue proactive regional and global economic integration
agendas, thus promoting internationalisation. The IDB provides financial support
through loans, grants and technical assistance to member countries in order to support
the negotiation and implementation of trade and investment agreements; the design
and implementation of export promotion and investment attraction strategies; and the
strengthening of trade facilitation practices and customs modernisation.
This work is complemented by the IDBs financial markets partnerships which provide
trade finance instruments and services to the regions financial intermediaries (FIs) as
part of its access2Trade business line, which encompasses the IDBs Trade Finance
Facilitation Program (TFFP), trade finance funds and financial markets technical
assistance. These products allow the IDB to strengthen the supply of financing and
trade-related infrastructure in LAC in order for FIs to continue financing clients in
times of both international market uncertainty and prosperity.
The IDBs TFFP is an effective way to facilitate trade by financing LACs import and
export of goods and services through a global network of participating banks. The
TFFP offers credit guarantees and loans that create opportunities for Confirming
Banks globally to get involved in trade deals with LAC, and for LAC Issuing Banks to
establish partnerships with Confirming Banks and to expand their portfolios of import
and export clients, either through trade finance documentation from a Confirming
Bank or direct loans from the IDB. Confirming Banks are generally larger
international and regional banks that receive partial or full credit guarantees from the
IDB to cover the commercial and political risk they take on Issuing Banks which issue
documentary letters of credit, promissory notes or other eligible trade finance
instruments to their importer and exporter clients. Issuing Banks are local banks in

206

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

LATIN AMERICA
LAC seeking to increase and diversify their funding sources for trade transactions.
Since becoming operational in 2005, the TFFP now includes 89 Issuing Banks in 21
LAC countries with guarantees and loans amounting to over $2.2 billion supporting
over 3,083 individual trade transactions worth $2.8 billion. Through its network of
international Confirming Banks, the program involves 256 Confirming Banks in 55
countries. Growth in recent years has gained significant momentum. In 2012 alone, the
TFFP approved deals amounting to $772 million which account for 1,127 underlying
trade transactions valued at $849.82 million.
To further trade in the region, the IDB has bolstered its focus on internationalisation,
especially of the regions underserved economic players small and medium
enterprises (SMEs). Internationalisation, however, is not easy. While even large
companies in LAC struggle to understand, identify and execute opportunities beyond
their host country borders, SMEs face additional difficulties given their limited
knowledge of international markets. SMEs fill a critical void as a key supplier of goods
and services, innovation and job creation, representing more than 90% of the regions
companies and employment, but they account for less than 10% of LACs intraregional
trade.5
The goal of the IDBs internationalisation strategy is to facilitate market access for
these important yet smaller economic players, which have the potential to thrive in the
global economy. For example, LAC currently makes up 7-8% of global trade,
compared to Chinas 25%. In the developed OECD countries, 50% of SMEs have
internationalised, and in LAC only 10% have gone abroad.6 The IDB sees this growth
potential in the region as an opportunity to further unite its focus on SMEs with its
products and services in order to foster the export and investment potential of SMEs.
To do so, trade finance funds, access2InternationalSME lines, technical assistance are in
place to strengthen internationalisation, and soon will be joined by a new online
platform called ConnectAmericas.
Trade finance funds are one strategic mechanism the IDB utilises to support SME
exporters. Funds, such as those managed by Crecera and IIG, which include thirdparty equity and long-term funding, continue to provide a stable source of financing
through special-purpose trade vehicles for exporters many of whom are SMEs. To
date the IDB has provided leverage to these funds, which have supported over 125
SMEs in twelve countries in the region through the execution of more than 11,000
different trade transactions. These innovative instruments offer access to finance
for SME clients who would otherwise face unaffordable or limited financing from
traditional sources.
The IDB also offers medium- and long-term loans and guarantees to FIs for their
portfolios dedicated to financing SMEs that seek to export and/or invest outside their
host country. These products have been coined access2InternationalSMEs given their

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

207

LATIN AMERICA
tailor-made approach to end-borrower internationalisation. With this product, the
IDB aims to promote the local banks role as a catalyst in internationalisation in order
to increase job creation, strengthen human resources, modernise key sectors and
further economic development on a local and regional level.
The IDB also ensures that SMEs are not excluded from international markets by
complementing financial products with technical assistance. On-line and classroom
training are given to FIs and their clients, especially SMEs, so that all parties understand
the value of trade finance products and how to access them. Additionally, direct
consultations with smaller FIs in more developing LAC economies provide solutions
that facilitate their inclusion in the TFFP network, thus ensuring that IDB support
reaches smaller banks and their traditionally more underserved, SME endbeneficiaries.
The IDB is currently working to launch a program called ConnectAmericas, a bankwide project that will offer SMEs a single, user-friendly platform to establish business
links with clients, suppliers and investors from the rest of the region and the world, and
to enable them to obtain information and training tools to export and invest outside
their home country. As a platform that will support SME internationalisation by
tackling three fundamental barriers to trade and FDI access to information, finance
and networks ConnectAmericas will enable SMEs to expand their market through
trade and/or investment growth.
The IDBs approach of combining research with technical assistance and financial
products advances regional growth in a holistic and results-oriented way. Through
knowledge creation, loans, guarantees, direct support and innovative online platforms,
the region has increasingly greater access to information, financing and engaged
networks which help to identify and execute new business opportunities. The
internationalisation of SMEs is one of the many ways the IDB is partnering with the
region to further competitiveness, growth and innovation for generations to come.
Visit us at www.iadb.org for more information.

NOTES:
1 IDB. 2013. Latin American Trade Trend Estimates.Washington, DC.
2 IDB. 2012. Latin America Trade Trend Estimates. Available at
http://www.iadb.org/en/publications/publicationdetail,7101.html?id=67008%20&dcLanguage=en&dcType=All.
3 Economist Intelligence Unit. 2012. Latin America as an FDI hotspot: Opportunities and risks.
4 Moreno, Luis Alberto. 2011. La dcada de Amrica Latina y el Caribe, una oportunidad real. La
segunda edicin ampliada.Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.
5 ECLAC (2009) Panorama Social de Amrica Latina
6 Estevadeordal,Toni. 2012. Speech given at the Opportunities with the Private Sector Group of the
Inter-American Development Bank conference, Madrid, Spain, 19 November.

208

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Argentina
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
9.2
367.6
38.4
16.0
4.5
6.5
7.8
40.1
37.2
49.2
2.4
0.7

2011
8.9
444.6
18.9
5.5
9.4
6.5
7.2
40.6
37.3
44.9
-0.3
-0.1

2012
2.6
474.8
-6.9
-1.3
10.5
6.5
7.2
41.0
37.9
45.2
1.3
0.3

2013
3.1
495.1
9.2
7.5
10.9
6.5
7.2
41.5
38.4
42.8
-0.4
-0.1

2014
3.8
507.2
5.5
5.1
11.0
6.5
6.7
42.0
38.5
42.5
-3.7
-0.7

2015
4.0
520.6
6.7
5.1
11.4
6.6
6.7
42.4
38.6
41.6
-6.5
-1.2

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$43,290 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

33.72
38.95 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.2
4.5
2.9
4.9
3.5
39.97
2.5
3
2.6
2.6
2.5
4.6
29.71
5.2
6.3
4.73
3.95
50.38
4.52
1.04
2.25

2011
4.4
5.4
3.3
5.1
4.1
44.65
2.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
5.3
35.5
5.9
6.4
5.05
4.33
54.14
4.68
1.04
3.5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Argentina faces both a deteriorating


fiscal position and a shrinking trade
surplus leading the government to
introduce measures limiting capital
flight and money laundering, reducing
imports, and shoring up tax collection.
High inflation and a depreciating
currency remain problems, and regaining access to international markets
will need to be addressed.

209

COUNTRY PROFILE

Bolivia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.1
19.8
11.1
2.4
0.6
0.1

2011
5.2
24.1
29.0
3.9
1.0
0.2

2012
5.0
26.7
17.2
8.0
1.1
0.2

2013
5.0
28.7
4.1
3.9
1.1
0.2

2014
5.0
30.5
4.9
4.8
1.1
0.2

2015
5.0
32.5
4.4
3.7
1.1
0.3

10.4
33.2
38.5
1.0
4.9

10.6
36.2
34.7
0.5
2.2

10.8
36.6
34.8
0.5
1.8

11.0
35.7
33.7
0.3
1.1

11.3
35.4
32.6
0.3
0.9

11.5
35.6
31.6
0.1
0.4

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$13,620 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

39.23
35.85 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

210

2012
3.5
5
5.8
5.5
5.3
50.43
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.1
2.3
4.1
33.19
3.5
5
4.11
3.9
41.32
4.97
2.29
2.75

2011
3.5
5.8
4.1
5.2
4.7
46.5
2.4
3
3.4
2.5
2.9
2.7
27.85
4.5
5.5
4.95
4.33
47.94
5.04
1.88
1.83

Bolivia has enjoyed steady economic


growth since the government took
power in 2006. GDP growth of over 5%
is ahead both of the region and global
growth rates, even though the country
is among the poorest in Latin America.
The global and Eurozone crises have
been side-stepped largely due to a focus
on developing domestic demand and
infrastructure.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Brazil
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.5
2,142.9
38.2
9.5
26.1
4.0
6.7
193.3
35.4
65.2
-47.3
-2.2

2011
2.7
2,492.9
8.9
2.9
37.5
5.2
6.0
194.9
35.0
64.9
-52.5
-2.1

2012
1.5
2,425.1
2.8
2.0
37.8
5.2
6.0
196.5
35.1
64.1
-62.3
-2.6

2013
4.0
2,503.9
5.3
6.6
39.6
5.4
6.5
198.0
35.3
61.2
-70.1
-2.8

2014
4.2
2,685.3
6.7
8.9
41.7
5.1
7.0
199.5
35.4
58.9
-89.6
-3.3

2015
4.2
2,864.4
6.7
8.2
43.6
5.2
7.0
201.1
35.5
57.3
-95.4
-3.3

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$373,148 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

60.17
62.93 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.7
5.9
6.1
6.8
5.7
62.38
6.9
4.7
6.3
6
5.7
7.1
61.59
5.7
6.9
4.65
5.58
57.05
4.51
5
7.75

2011
7
6.3
6.3
7
6
65.11
6.9
4.6
6.3
6.1
6
7.2
62.31
5.9
6.9
4.75
5.73
58.01
4.93
4.79
9.13

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

2012 in Brazil might be characterised as


the year the country took a bit of a
breather before returning to more
robust growth, with GDP expected to
grow by 4% in 2013.The government is
working hard to stimulate domestic
industry to be more competitive, and
there are many good prospects for both
domestic and foreign firms in the build
up to the World Cup and Rio
Olympics.

211

COUNTRY PROFILE

Chile
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
6.1
216.1
27.7
1.4
4.3
0.0
8.2
17.1
23.3
8.6
3.3
1.5

2011
5.9
248.4
14.8
4.7
6.5
0.0
7.1
17.2
24.7
11.3
-3.2
-1.3

2012
5.0
268.3
3.9
3.8
6.3
0.0
6.6
17.4
23.6
11.4
-8.6
-3.2

2013
4.4
292.0
4.2
4.2
6.7
0.0
6.9
17.6
23.0
12.3
-8.8
-3.0

2014
4.6
313.1
4.3
4.2
6.6
0.0
6.9
17.7
22.6
12.6
-9.0
-2.9

2015
4.6
332.0
4.7
4.4
6.7
0.0
6.9
17.9
22.0
12.9
-9.0
-2.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$41,640 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2

74.37
75.24 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

212

2012
8
7.4
7.8
7
8.7
77.63
8.4
7.7
8.3
8.1
7.8
7.8
80.23
7.2
7.5
7.33
6.69
71.81
4.11
7.71
8

2011
8.1
7.6
7.6
6.7
8.5
77.05
7.9
7.4
8.3
8
7.6
7.9
78.52
7
7.6
7.18
6.35
70.14
4.53
7.71
9

GDP growth in Chile in 2013 is


expected to be strong at just under 5%
as good economic management and
strong fundamentals pay off.While the
Chilean copper mining sector is seeing
large scale investment, energy
infrastructure needs investment to keep
the mining sector production targets on
track.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Colombia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.0
284.9
13.8
1.6
2.0
16.5
11.8
45.5
26.2
36.4
-8.8
-3.1

2011
5.9
327.6
21.7
12.3
3.8
28.0
10.8
46.1
26.9
34.2
-10.0
-3.0

2012
4.3
365.4
9.0
8.2
4.1
31.4
11.0
46.6
28.0
32.2
-10.7
-2.9

2013
4.4
387.4
4.9
8.8
4.2
34.8
10.5
47.2
28.2
30.9
-11.2
-2.9

2014
4.4
407.8
4.9
5.8
4.3
35.0
10.0
47.7
27.9
30.0
-10.5
-2.6

2015
4.5
430.1
4.4
4.0
4.5
34.3
9.5
48.3
27.3
29.3
-10.6
-2.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$36,501 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

58.76
59.71 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
7.1
6.9
7.3
5.7
5.8
65.74
7.9
4
6.5
6.1
6.3
7.2
63.69
5.6
6.8
4.33
5.48
55.66
4.47
4.38
5.5

2011
7.2
7.2
7.4
5.5
5.5
65.65
7.6
3.9
6.6
6.3
6.3
7.4
63.8
5.6
6.6
4.14
5.58
55.01
4.72
4.38
6.33

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Colombia is one of the best performing


economies in the region, and a
combination of sound economic
management and improvements in
productivity will ensure that this
continues in 2013. Investment in oil
exploration and mining, and the
implementation of FTAs with the US,
EU and Canada add to the countrys
prospects.

213

COUNTRY PROFILE

Costa Rica
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
4.7
36.2
26.7
12.1
1.6
0.0
7.3
4.6
13.7
29.2
-1.3
-3.5

2011
4.2
40.9
16.9
11.6
2.2
0.0
7.7
4.6
13.8
30.8
-2.2
-5.3

2012
4.8
44.9
6.0
5.4
2.2
0.0
7.5
4.7
14.2
32.7
-2.5
-5.5

2013
4.3
49.2
5.1
3.1
2.2
0.0
6.5
4.7
14.4
34.9
-2.6
-5.3

2014
4.4
52.9
4.1
2.1
2.3
0.0
6.0
4.8
14.5
37.6
-2.8
-5.3

2015
4.5
56.5
3.3
1.6
2.3
0.0
5.5
4.8
14.5
40.5
-3.1
-5.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,366 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

50.08
52.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

214

2012
4.4
5.5
5.1
5.6
4.3
49.63
5.6
5.3
5.4
6
5
5.6
54.7
5.4
6.1
5.13
5.63
55.47
4.49
3.75
5

2011
4.7
5.8
5.4
5.5
3.8
50.33
5.6
5.2
6
6
5.2
5.5
55.98
5.6
6.1
5
5.33
55
5.13
3.75
6

Costa Rica remains a hub for foreign


direct investment in high-tech
manufacturing and service exports, and
has a raft of free trade agreements with
major developed markets as well as
being part of DR-CAFTA. Growth in
GDP remains above 4% for the
foreseeable future.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Ecuador
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
3.6
58.0
16.3
2.3
4.0
9.7
7.6
14.8
34.0
16.1
-1.6
-2.8

2011
7.8
66.5
0.7
8.2
4.9
12.8
6.0
15.0
40.9
18.0
-0.2
-0.3

2012
4.0
70.8
0.9
8.2
6.1
14.4
5.8
15.2
41.2
18.8
-0.2
-0.3

2013
4.1
76.4
2.5
13.5
6.2
17.8
6.2
15.5
43.3
18.8
2.3
3.0

2014
3.8
81.5
2.5
-2.3
6.0
15.5
6.3
15.7
42.0
18.0
0.5
0.6

2015
3.6
86.6
3.5
-1.0
5.9
13.9
6.4
15.9
40.1
18.4
-0.9
-1.0

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,300 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5

35.53
34.91 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
4.6
5.6
5.8
5.6
4.7
52.74
3.3
2.3
2.9
2
2.5
4.2
28.63
4.1
4.8
5.69
4.04
46.68
4.83
0.63
1

2011
4.1
6.3
4.1
5.6
4.4
48.6
2.9
2.9
3.6
2.2
2.8
2.7
28.1
4.6
5
5.66
4.76
49.85
5.16
0.42
1.33

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Ecuador will sustain solid economic


growth over the next few years, thanks
to increased domestic demand and high
oil prices. Investments in transport and
port infrastructure have helped grow
exports and are important additions for
the economys longer term outlook.

215

COUNTRY PROFILE

El Salvador
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
1.4
21.2
7.5
13.4
1.3
0.0
5.8
5.9
17.3
50.1
-0.7
-3.1

2011
1.4
22.8
6.3
8.2
1.7
0.0
5.8
5.9
17.9
50.8
-1.2
-5.4

2012
1.5
24.0
5.6
5.0
1.9
0.0
5.5
5.9
18.5
51.8
-1.2
-5.0

2013
2.0
25.2
4.7
5.2
1.8
0.0
5.3
6.0
18.7
51.7
-1.1
-4.3

2014
2.0
26.5
5.3
4.6
1.8
0.0
5.0
6.0
18.9
51.1
-1.0
-3.7

2015
2.5
27.9
5.5
5.0
1.7
0.0
4.8
6.1
19.1
50.2
-1.0
-3.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$2,519 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

43.55
42.62 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

216

2012
5.1
4.9
5.3
6.5
4.3
52.14
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.3
4.3
4
45.82
3.5
4.7
4.43
4.93
43.93
3.34
2.92
3.5

2011
5
4.9
5.7
6.3
4.2
51.8
4.2
4.4
5.3
5.4
4.8
4.3
46.96
3.8
4.4
4.1
5
43.25
4.25
2.92
1.5

El Salvadors economy is growing, but


can be characterised as fragile.
Agriculture, industry and trade are
growing, but not at levels that might be
characterised as a boom. GDP growth
should tick up to 2% in 2013.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Guatemala
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
2.9
41.3
9.3
5.9
2.3
0.2

2011
3.9
46.9
4.6
4.4
3.1
0.3

2012
3.1
50.3
5.0
4.1
3.1
0.3

2013
3.2
53.2
4.6
3.8
3.1
0.3

2014
3.3
56.4
5.0
4.1
3.1
0.2

2015
3.4
59.8
4.9
4.0
3.2
0.2

14.4
11.2
24.1
-0.6
-1.5

14.7
11.8
24.1
-1.5
-3.1

15.1
11.7
24.9
-1.8
-3.5

15.5
12.6
25.4
-1.9
-3.6

15.9
12.9
25.7
-2.1
-3.6

16.3
13.0
25.9
-2.2
-3.6

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$6,800 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

37.41
35.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
3.7
4.8
4.2
3.9
4.7
42.57
4.1
3.6
2.9
4
2.9
4.1
35.92
1.4
3
3.57
2.57
26.25
4.17
3.54
3.5

2011
3.1
4.9
4
3.6
4.2
39.8
3.7
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.3
2.7
33.18
1.4
2
3.1
1.5
20
4.75
3.54
3.5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Guatemala has experienced relatively


stable economic growth for decades
thanks to prudent macroeconomic
management, and punctuated only by
the global financial crisis in 2009. A
surge in demand for its exports goods,
and a fiscal stimulus plan did help
cushion the impact of the crisis, and
the country returned to its previous
levels of growth, which look set to
continue.

217

COUNTRY PROFILE

Mexico
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
5.6
1,035.5
20.7
21.7
30.2
41.7
5.4
112.3
21.7
42.9
-4.5
-0.4

2011
3.9
1,154.0
6.8
6.7
42.7
56.4
5.2
113.7
22.1
43.8
-11.1
-1.0

2012
3.8
1,162.9
4.4
4.9
45.1
56.9
4.8
114.9
23.2
43.1
-11.0
-0.9

2013
3.5
1,210.2
5.1
6.0
46.2
56.4
4.8
116.0
23.1
43.2
-13.7
-1.1

2014
3.5
1,274.4
6.6
6.9
45.9
54.0
4.5
117.2
23.1
43.2
-12.8
-1.0

2015
3.3
1,340.3
7.9
8.2
45.5
51.8
4.5
118.4
23.3
43.1
-14.8
-1.1

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$168,286 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

58.9
58.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

218

2012
6.5
5.9
6.9
6.2
6.3
63.39
6.9
4
5.8
5.5
5.8
5.3
55.75
6.2
7.1
6.19
5.33
62.1
4.74
5.21
7

2011
6.1
5.2
6.3
5.9
5.8
58.64
6.4
3.8
6.1
5.3
5.8
5.1
54.38
6.5
7
5.99
5.21
61.71
5.26
5.21
8.17

Mexicos role in the global supply chain


is crucial to the national economy
thanks to its large network of free trade
agreements, with NAFTA being the
most important. Close integration into
the US economy gives Mexico a
positive outlook for the next two years
as the recovery picks up speed in the
US. Impressively Mexico managed
smooth growth through 2012 while
other countries saw dips. Drug crime
remains a concern.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Panama
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
7.6
26.6
28.3
-11.4
1.6
1.6
4.5
3.5
24.9
39.2
-2.9
-10.8

2011
10.6
30.6
14.9
7.3
2.3
2.0
4.2
3.6
24.8
37.8
-3.9
-12.8

2012
8.5
34.8
5.3
8.7
2.4
2.0
4.2
3.7
24.3
36.1
-4.2
-12.1

2013
7.5
38.0
10.3
6.7
2.4
1.9
4.2
3.7
24.0
35.9
-4.5
-11.8

2014
6.8
41.6
-1.2
6.5
2.5
1.9
4.2
3.8
23.7
35.5
-4.8
-11.5

2015
6.3
45.2
5.2
8.0
2.6
1.8
4.2
3.9
24.3
32.5
-4.9
-10.8

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$2,303 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

56.74
57.59 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.5
7
5.5
7.3
6.1
65
7
5.3
5.5
5.8
5.2
5.2
56.75
4.4
5.3
5.56
4.94
50.69
4.33
4.79
6

2011
6.6
7.1
6.2
7
6.1
65.83
6.5
4.7
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.2
56.48
4.7
5.1
5.42
4.58
49.38
4.71
4.58
6.67

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Panamas investment grade status reflects


its position as a major international
logistics, financial centre, and the
regional headquarters for a great many
corporates and agencies. A number of
large infrastructure projects are
stimulating economic growth and trade,
including the Panama Canal expansion,
the Panama City metro, a number of
road improvements, and an expansion of
the main airport. Expect solid
economic growth through 2014.

219

COUNTRY PROFILE

Paraguay
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
13.1
20.7
34.8
27.8
1.1
0.0
5.7
6.4
19.4
13.7
-0.6
-3.1

2011
4.3
24.1
7.8
9.5
1.5
0.0
5.6
6.5
19.9
12.0
-0.2
-1.0

2012
-1.5
26.1
-4.8
-7.9
1.6
0.0
5.8
6.7
21.1
12.9
-0.3
-1.1

2013
11.0
31.1
17.5
22.4
1.7
0.0
5.4
6.8
20.9
12.0
-0.1
-0.4

2014
4.6
34.2
6.0
4.8
1.7
0.0
5.5
6.9
20.8
11.8
-0.4
-1.3

2015
4.7
36.3
5.5
4.7
1.7
0.0
5.5
7.1
20.6
10.4
-0.5
-1.5

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$5,326 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4

40.63
43.50 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

220

2012
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.1
6.1
54.89
6
2
2.3
3
2.7
4.7
34.82
4
5.4
4.21
3.99
44.06
5.12
2.19
2

2011
5.4
6.1
5.1
5.5
6.3
56.83
4.6
2.5
3.1
3.4
3.5
4.2
35.56
5.4
6.5
5.07
5.48
56.08
5.30
1.88
3

After a 1.5% fall in GDP in 2012 due to


a poor soy crop and an outbreak of foot
and mouth that damaged beef exports,
Paraguays economy is expected to
rebound significantly in 2013 with
growth of up to 11%. A bumper soy
crop and a revitalised beef export
industry show that the countrys
fortunes have changed.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

COUNTRY PROFILE

Peru
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
8.8
153.9
24.6
1.6
4.1
3.1
7.9
29.6
20.0
24.6
-3.8
-2.5

2011
6.9
177.2
12.7
8.4
5.7
4.7
7.7
30.0
21.6
20.9
-3.3
-1.9

2012
6.0
200.3
9.5
2.3
6.2
5.2
7.5
30.5
21.1
19.6
-6.1
-3.0

2013
5.8
212.0
6.3
8.7
6.5
5.6
7.5
30.9
21.4
18.3
-6.3
-3.0

2014
6.0
227.5
8.0
11.2
6.6
5.0
7.5
31.4
21.5
17.6
-6.1
-2.7

2015
6.0
245.1
7.8
8.9
6.7
4.8
7.5
31.9
21.8
17.0
-6.6
-2.7

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$66,938 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

56.95
55.79 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

2012
6.4
7.4
7.3
6
7.3
68.64
5.6
4.1
5.9
4.9
5.3
5.2
51.72
4.9
5.9
5.06
4.74
51.36
4.94
5
5.75

2011
5.8
7.4
7.1
5.9
6.8
65.8
5.3
4
6
5.1
5.2
4.4
49.93
5.1
5.4
4.69
4.84
50.15
4.88
4.38
6.5

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Peru benefits from having strong


economic fundamentals, an openness to
foreign capital, and an improved
sovereign rating, lowering risk and
increasing growth. GDP growth for
2012 and 2013 is estimated to remain
steady at 6%.The prices of exported
metals have been maintained as the US
economy picks up, the European
recession appears milder than
anticipated, and Chinas economy has a
softer landing than thought.

221

COUNTRY PROFILE

Uruguay
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)

2010
8.9
39.4
10.9
14.0
1.6
0.0
6.7
3.4
32.2
57.9
-0.9
-2.2

2011
5.7
46.7
11.7
6.3
2.0
0.0
6.0
3.4
31.7
55.1
-1.4
-3.1

2012
3.5
49.7
6.0
4.7
1.7
0.0
6.7
3.4
32.0
51.2
-1.5
-3.0

2013
4.0
57.3
6.6
6.4
1.7
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.3
45.4
-1.1
-1.9

2014
4.0
60.9
7.6
6.2
1.8
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.7
42.7
-1.0
-1.7

2015
4.0
64.4
8.2
4.9
2.0
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.8
40.4
-1.2
-1.9

(Source: IMF)

Foreign exchange reserves:


US$13,434 million
(December 2012).

Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3

51.92
50.26 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital

222

2012
4.3
6
5.7
6.6
5.9
57
5.1
6.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.4
53.22
5.3
5.8
5.11
5.44
54.17
4.52
4.17
4.75

2011
4.2
6.5
4.9
6.5
5.8
55.83
4.5
6.5
5
5
4.8
5.2
51.48
5.7
5.9
5.25
5.5
55.83
4.98
3.75
3.75

In 2013 Uruguays GDP growth is


expected to be slightly above 2012 at
about 4%. Much of this is fuelled by
domestic consumption, but there is also
an uptick in foreign demand based on
the performance of Brazil in particular.
One major investment coming up is the
Aratir Mine development, which will
cost $3 billion dollars and could make
Uruguay the worlds eighth-largest iron
ore producer.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Selected Export Credit Agencies


Argentina
Banco de Inversin y Comercio Exterior (BICE)
25 de Mayo 526, C1002ABL Buenos Aires, Argentina
Tel:
(+54) 011 4317 6900
Fax:
(+54) 011 4311 5596
Email: infobice@bice.com.ar
Website: www.bice.com.ar

Brazil
Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econmico e Social BNDES
Av. Repblica do Chile, 100 / 18th floor 20031-917 Rio de Janeiro RJ, Brazil
Tel:
(+55) 21 2172-7921/8323
Fax:
(+55) 21 2262-1470
Website: www.bndes.gov.br

SBCE Seguradora Brasileira de Credito a Exportacao


Rua Senador Dantas, 74 16 andar 20031-205 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
Tel:
(+55) 21 2510-5000
Fax:
(+55) 21 2532-3320
Website: www.sbce.com.br

Colombia
Fondo Nacional de Garantas S.A. (FNG)
Carrera 13 No. 32 51 Int. 1
Bogot
Colombia
Tel:
3239000 ext. 4048
Website: www.fng.gov.co

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

223

EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Banco de Comercio Exterior de Colombia (Bancoldex)


Calle 28 #13 A-15, Pisos 38-42, Santa Fe de Bogot, Colombia
Tel:
(+571) 382 15 15
Fax:
(+571) 286 02 37
Website: www.bancoldex.com

Mexico
Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext)
Perifrico Sur 4333, Colonia Jardines en la Montaa, 14210 Mexico DF, Mexico
Tel:
(+52) 54 49 90 00
Fax:
(+52) 54 49 90 28
Website: www.bancomext.com

Peru
Corporacin Financiera de Desarrollo (COFIDE)
Augusto Tamayo 160, San Isidro, Lima, Peru
Tel:
(+51) 1 615 4000
Fax:
(+51) 1 442 3374
Website: www.cofide.com.pe

Uruguay
Banco de Seguros del Estado
Libertador 1465, Montevideo, Uruguay
Tel:
(+598) 2 908 9303
Fax:
(+598) 2 908 9288
Website: www.bse.com.uy

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EXPORT & DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES

Development and Multilateral Finance Institutions


Banco Latino Americano de Comercio Exterior (Bladex)
Calle 50 y Aquilino de la Guardia, Panama
PO Box 0819-08730
Tel:
(+507) 210 8500
Fax:
(+507) 269 6333
Website: www.bladex.com

Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI)


Edificio Sede BCIE
Boulevard Suyapa
Tegucigalpa
Honduras
Tel:
(504) 2240-2231
Fax:
(504) 2240-2183
PBX: (504) 2240-2243
Website: www.bcie.org

Development Bank of Latin America (CAF)


Ave. Luis Roche, Torre CAF
Altamira, Caracas, 1060,Venezuela
Tel:
(+58) (212) 209 2111/2190
Fax:
(+58) (212) 209 2444
Email: infocaf@caf.com
Website: www.caf.com

Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)


Inter-American Development Bank
1300 New York Avenue
Washington
DC 20577
Public Information: (+1) 202-623-2096
E-Mail: business@iadb.org
Website: www.iadb.org

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225

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SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Sumitomo Mitsui
Banking Corporation
Global Trade Finance Department

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

227

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

An integrated approach to trade finance


O

FUNDING
SUPPORT
SUPPORT

TRA
TRANSACTION
ANSACTION
ADVICE
ADVICE
RISK
RISK
MI
MITIGATION
TIGATION

l Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) takes an integrated approach


to trade finance that adds value across various fronts, from offering simple
transactional advice to providing funding support and other risk mitigation
measures.

!!

l From short term to long term, from conventional export/import finance to


complicated structured finance, we are able to deliver customized competitive
and flexible solutions for funding, risk hedge and trade related advisory
requirements.

228

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Global Trade Finance at SMBC


SMBC Groups Global Trade Finance Department (GTFD) is comprised of over
200 professionals distributed in four major regional hubs in Tokyo, Singapore, London
and New York. Trade finance activities are coordinated with key local offices located
throughout the Asia-Pacific Region, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the
Americas.

The activities of GTFD are coordinated by the following four main product teams:

Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance


Tailor made packages for exporters or distributors, including short, medium and longterm financing solutions

Export & Agency Finance


Medium / long term financing of capital goods, backed by Export Credit Agencies,
Multilaterals and Development Banks

Financial Institutions Trade Finance


Letters of credit, guarantees, bankers acceptances and a full range of financing services
for financial institutions

Structured Trade & Commodity Finance


Financing producers and exporters of commodities, secured on export contracts with
acceptable off-takers

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

229

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain


Finance
Product types
Loans, LCs, Receivable Discounting

Typical tenors
Short Term (up to 3 years)

Available structures
Working Capital Finance, Import Finance, Supply Chain Finance

Financing purposes
Generally focused on assisting customers in financing their existing balance sheets
l GTFDs Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance (Trade Solutions)
team works with both exporters and importers, providing a broad range of trade
finance solutions (ranging from short to medium and long-term products) to
support their domestic and cross border sales around the globe.
l The mission of SMBCs Trade Solutions group is to provide a One-Stop-Shop
service for trade finance products to new and existing clients worldwide. Trade
Solutions supports the expansion of sales for existing clients by providing them
with new trade finance solutions.
l SMBC coordinates with our global network to provide customized solutions
that match our clients objectives.
l SMBC also provides local market knowledge and product expertise and can
structure financial solutions. SMBCs Trade Solutions team supports these
transactions from origination to completion.

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The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Export & Agency Finance


Product types
Loans, Advisories, Derivatives, Agency

Typical tenors
Medium Term (up to 7 - 10 years)
Long Term (up to 20 years)

Available structures
Corporate Lending, Limited Recourse Project Finance, Aircraft Finance

Financing purposes
To support export of capital goods & services, typically used in the implementation of
large capex investments
l GTFDs Export & Agency Finance team (EAF) has extensive experience
providing advisory and arranging services for Export Credit Agency,
Development Bank and Multilateral Agency (collectively, the Agencies)
financings.
l SMBCs presence in the Agency universe is extensive. SMBC has successfully
acted as financial advisor, mandated lead arranger and Agency coordinator to
borrowers and projects worldwide.
l EAF also maintains extensive relationships with many Agencies around the globe
and currently employs many former members of these institutions, providing
SMBC with a deep understanding of structuring, operating and monitoring
needs of Agency finance.

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231

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Financial Institutions Trade Finance


Product types
Loans, LCs, BAs

Typical tenors
Short Term (under 1 year)

Available structures
Solid confirmations, BA / Payment Discounting

Financing purposes
To facilitate bank liquidity and trade finance
l GTFDs Financial Institution Trade Finance team maintains well established
correspondent relationships with leading banks in emerging markets. SMBC
provides trade financing to these institutions in the Asia-Pacific Region, Europe,
the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.
l SMBC provides an array of services to banks, including:
L/C confirmation and refinancing
Bankers Acceptance discounting
Payment and counter guarantees
Pre-export financing

232

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SMBC TRADE FINANCE

Structured Trade & Commodity Finance


Product types
Loans, Receivables Discounting

Typical tenors
Short Term (under 3 years)

Available structures
Receivables Discounting, Payment Guarantees, Borrowing Base Lending

Financing purposes
To finance the flow of commodities from production to use
l GTFDs Structured Trade & Commodity Finance team provides short-term, selfliquidating finance facilities to a range of trading companies from the mid-sized
specialist product trader to the globally-integrated major trading houses.
l Structured Trade & Commodity Finance focuses on energy products,
agricultural commodities, steel and base metals. Generally, SMBC targets
financings where there are liquid terminal markets for the underlying
commodity.
l SMBCs Structured Trade & Commodity Finance team operates on a global
basis, providing comprehensive solutions for commodity producers, traders and
buyers.
l We employ a team of professionals with extensive experience in commodity
finance and offer our clients a range of traditional and structured commodity
finance solutions.

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

233

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ZXei\cpfe]ifdJD9:%Jf`]pfliYlj`e\jj`jZifjj$Yfi[\ikiX[\fi
Zfddf[`kp]`eXeZ\#kXcbkfJD9:%N\jg\XbpflicXe^lX^\%
nnn%jdYZ^iflg%Zfd

SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY

Global Trade Finance Network


Americas
New York
Sao Paulo Banco Sumitomo Mitsui Brasileiro
Europe
London Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Paris Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Milan Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Dsseldorf
Russia Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Istanbul
Middle East & Africa
Dubai
Johannesburg
Asia-Pacific
Singapore
Tokyo
Hanoi
Hong Kong
Malaysia Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Malaysia Berhad
Seoul
Bangkok
Taipei
Sydney
China Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (China) Limited
Jakarta PT Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Indonesia

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

235

SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY

Global and Regional Heads


Mr. Toshio Ishizuka
Mr. Eli Hassine
Co-heads of Global Trade Finance Department
EMEA Region Head; Global Head of Structured Trade and Commodity
Finance (Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited)
Mr. John Turnbull
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1018
Email: john_turnbull@gb.smbcgroup.com
Americas Region Head; Global Head of Export and Agency Finance
(Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation)
Mr. Eli Hassine
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4830
Email: eli_hassine@smbcgroup.com
Asia Pacific Region Head
(Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation)
Mr. Hiromitsu Otsu
Tel: +65 6882 0703
Email: hiromitsu_otsu@sg.smbc.co.jp
Global Head for Corporate Trade Solutions and Supply Chain Finance
(Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited)
Mr. Toshio Ishizuka
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1732
Email: toshio_ishizuka@gb.smbcgroup.com
Global Head for Financial Institutions Trade Finance
(Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation)
Mr. Kaoru Furuya
Tel:+81 (3) 4333 2190
Email: Furuya_Kaoru@yk.smbc.co.jp

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The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY

Americas
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
Your contact points New York
Mr. Eli Hassine
Co-General Manager
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4830
Email: eli_hassine@smbcgroup.com

Structured Trade and Commodity Finance/Export & Agency Finance


Ms. Mini Roy
Director
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4834
Email: mini_roy@smbcgroup.com
Mr. John Coussa
Director Structured Trade & Commodity Finance
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4896
Email: john_coussa@smbcgroup.com
Mr. Daniel Minzer
Vice President - Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4286
Email: daniel_minzer@smbcgroup.com

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Financial Institutions Trade Finance/
Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance
Mr. Hiroshi Matsushita
Director
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4034
Email: hiroshi_matsushita@smbcgroup.com
Mrs. Lucy Cutting
Director Customer Solutions
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4843
Email: lcutting@smbclf.com
Mr. Mark Ampuero
Vice President - Financial Institutions Trade Finance
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4053
Email: mampuero@smbclf.com
Mr. Waheeb Rizvi
Director Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance
Tel: +1 (212) 224 5244
Email: wrizvi@smbclf.com

Banco Sumitomo Mitsui Brasileiro


Your contact point Sao Paolo
Sao Paolo
Mr. Paulo Silva
General Manager
Tel: +5511 3178 8051
Email: Paulo_Silva@smbcgroup.com.br

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)


Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Your contact points London
Mr. Toshio Ishizuka
Co-General Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1732
Email: toshio_ishizuka@gb.smbcgroup.com
Mr. John Turnbull
Joint General Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1018
Email: john_turnbull@gb.smbcgroup.com
Mr. Jun Yokoe
Joint General Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1103
Email: jun_yokoe@gb.smbcgroup.com
Structured Trade & Commodity Finance/Export & Agency Finance
Mr. John Turnbull
Joint General Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1018
Email: john_turnbull@gb.smbcgroup.com
Mr. Ian Williams
Deputy General Manager, Head of Structured Pre-Export Finance
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1165
Email: ian_williams@gb.smbcgroup.com
Mr. Hitoshi Miyake
Joint General Manager, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1785
Email: hitoshi_miyake@gb.smbcgroup.com

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Mr. Jonathan Joseph-Horne
Assistant General Manager, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 2412
Email: jonathan_joseph-horne@gb.smbcgroup.com
Financial Institutions Trade Finance/
Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance
Mr.Yohei Ibi
Assistant General Manager, Financial Institutions Trade Finance/Corporate Trade
Solutions & Supply Chain Finance
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1089/ Email: yohei_ibi@gb.smbcgroup.com
Africa Desk
Mr Christian Karam
Assistant General Manager, Head of Africa Desk
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7786 1944/ Email: christian_karam@gb.smbcgroup.com

Your contact point Paris


GTFD Paris
Mr. Herv Billi
Assistant General Manager
Tel: +33 144 71 40 13
Email: herve_billi@fr.smbcgroup.com

Your contact point Milan


GTFD Milan
Mr. Angelo Dallocchio
Assistant General Manager
Tel: +39 02 7636 1741
Email: angelo_dallocchio@it.smbcgroup.com

Your contact point Dusseldorf


GTFD Dusseldorf
Mr. Thomas Senk
Deputy General Manager
Tel: +49 (211) 3619 257
Email: thomas_senk@de.smbcgroup.com

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The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Your contact point Russia
Russia
Mr. Mitsuhiro Kato
Head of Corporate Finance Group
Tel: +7 495 287 8258
Email: mitsuhiro_kato@ru.smbcgroup.com
Ms. Olga Svatkovskaya
Head of Trade Finance Group
Tel: +7 495 287 8200
Email: olga_svatkovskaya@ru.smbcgroup.com

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation


Your contact point Dubai
GTFD Dubai (Turkey, Middle East and CIS)
Mr.Yusuke Kurita
Assistant General Manager and Head of Structured & Trade Finance,Turkey,
MENA and CIS
Tel: + 9714 -428 8120
Email: yusuke_kurita@ae.smbcgroup.com

Your contact point Johannesburg


GTFD Johannesburg
Mr Achmat Adams
Assistant General Manager
Tel: +27 (0) 11 502 1790
Email: achmat_adams@za.smbcgroup.com

Your contact point Istanbul


GTFD Istanbul
Mr. Hironori Kobayashi
Manager
Tel: +90 212 371 5963
Email: hironori_kobayashi@tr.smbcgroup.com

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY

Asia Pacific
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
Your contact points Singapore
Mr. Hiromitsu Otsu
Joint General Manager
Tel: +65 6882 0703
Email: hiromitsu_otsu@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Takeshi Kimoto
Senior Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0220
Email: takeshi_kimoto@sg.smbc.co.jp
Structured Trade & Commodities Finance
Mr. Raymond Tan (Metals & Soft Commodity)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0226
Email: raymond_tan@sg.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Eunice Chin (Oil & Energy)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0481
Email: eunice_chin@sg.smbc.co.jp
Export & Agency Finance
Mr. Jun Palanca
Senior Vice President, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0682
Email: jun_palanca@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Takehisa Manabe
First Vice President, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0212
Email: takehisa_manabe@sg.smbc.co.jp

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Ms. Nina Yong
Vice President, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0959
Email: nina_yong@sg.smbc.co.jp
Financial Institutions Trade Finance/
Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance
Mr. Ade Rangkoto (Indonesia)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0241
Email: ade_rangkoto@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Quang Hien Vo (Vietnam/Cambodia/Laos/Myanmar)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0342
Email: quang_hien_vo@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Joseph Chia (Singapore/India/Bangladesh/Sri Lanka/Australia/Pakistan)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0551
Email: joseph_chia@sg.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Helen Tang (Thailand/Malaysia/Singapore)
Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0343
Email: helen_tang@sg.smbc.co.jp
Ms.Veronica Yeo
Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Trade Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0271
Email: veronica_yeo@sg.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Kiara Kuek
Vice President, Financial Institutions Trade Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0620
Email: kiara_kuek@sg.smbc.co.jp

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Your contact points Tokyo
GTFD Tokyo
Mr. Kaoru Furuya
Joint General Manager
Tel:+81 (3) 4333 2190
Email: Furuya_Kaoru@yk.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Taku Matsumoto
Senior Vice President
Tel:+81 (3) 4333 4105
Email: Matsumoto_Taku@dd.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Toshihiro Takada
Senior Vice President
Tel:+81 (3) 4333 3753
Email: Takada_Toshihiro@ck.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Takeshi Inumaru
Head of Business Promotion Group (Tokyo)
Tel:+81 (3) 4333 4124
Email: Inumaru_Takeshi@dd.smbc.co.jp

Your contact points Hanoi


Non-Japanese Corporate Banking Department, Hanoi
Mr. Daisuke Numagami
Assistant Vice President,Trade Finance
Tel: +84 (4) 3946 1100
Email: daisuke_numagami@vn.smbc.co.jp

Your contact points Hong Kong


GTFD Hong Kong
Mr. Hiromitsu Yoshizawa
Group Head
Tel: +852 2206 2183
Email: hiromitsu.yoshizawa@smbc.com.hk

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Structured Trade & Commodity Finance
Mr. Stanley Chiu
Vice President, Structured Trade and Commodity Finance
Tel: +852 2206 2515
Email: stanley.chiu@smbc.com.hk
Ms. Joyce Yau
Assistant Vice President, Structured Trade and Commodity Finance
Tel: +852 2206 2518
Email: joyce.yau@smbc.com.hk
Export & Agency Finance
Mr. Hiromitsu Yoshizawa
Group Head
Tel: +852 2206 2183
Email: hiromitsu.yoshizawa@smbc.com.hk
Financial Institutions Trade Finance
Mr. Jason Ng
Assistant Vice President, Financial Institutions Trade Finance
Tel: +852 2206 2514
Email: jason.ng@smbc.com.hk
Corporate Trade Solution & Supply Chain Finance
Ms. Frances Wong
Vice President, Corporate Trade Solution & Supply Chain Finance
Tel: +852 2206 2516
Email: frances.wong@smbc.com.hk
Ms. Candy Lau
Senior Associate, Corporate Trade Solution & Supply Chain Finance
Tel: +852 2206 2511
Email: candy.lau@smbc.com.hk

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Malasia Berhad


Your contact points Malaysia
Business Promotion 2, Malaysia
Mr. Joon Huei Lee
Head of Trade Finance
Tel: +603 2168 1500
Email: joon_huei_lee@my.smbc.co.jp

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Your contact points Seoul
Trade Finance Group, Seoul
Mr. Kazuo Yoshimura
Head of Seoul Group
Tel: +82 2 399 7159
Email: kazuo_yoshimura@kr.smbc.co.jp
Mr.Yuji Kawasaki
Vice President
Tel: +82 2 399 7291
Email: yuji_kawasaki@kr.smbc.co.jp

Your contact point Bangkok


Business Promotion 1, Bangkok
Ms. Panhathai Muensuwan
Vice President
Tel: +66 2353 8157
Email: panhathai_muensuwan@th.smbc.co.jp

Your contact point Taiwan


Global Trade Finance Department, Taipei
Mr. Jason Liu
Vice President
Tel: +886 2 8725-6598
Email: jason_liu@tw.smbc.co.jp

Your contact point Sydney


Corporate Banking Department 2, Sydney
Mr. Simon McMahon
Vice President, Head of Trade Finance (Australia & New Zealand)
Tel: +61 (0) 2 9376 1944
Email: simon_mcmahon@au.smbc.co.jp
Mr. David Jang
Assistant Vice President Trade Finance
Tel: +61 (2) 9376 1978
Email: david_jang@au.smbc.co.jp

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (China) Limited
Your contact points China
Structured Trade Finance Department, China
Mr. Hirofumi Inoue
General Manager of Structured Trade Finance Department
Tel: +8621 3860 9290
Email: Hirofumi_Inoue@cn.smbc.co.jp
Structured Trade & Commodity Finance
Ms. Wendy Qin
Vice President & Head of Commodity Finance
Tel: +8621 3860 9299
Email: wendy_qin@cn.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Maggie Gu
Assistant Vice President of Commodity Finance Group
Tel: +8621 3860 9295
Email: Maggie_gu@cn.smbc.co.jp
Export & Agency Finance
Ms. Fangxian Jing (Stationed in Beijing)
GM of China Business & Head of Export & Trade Finance Group
Tel: +8610 5920 4535
Email: jing_fangxian@cn.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Tony Lee (Stationed in Beijing)
Vice President, Export & Trade Finance Group
Tel: +8610 5920 4626
Email: tony_lee@cn.smbc.co.jp
Financial Institutions Trade Finance/Corporate Trade Solution & Supply
Chain Finance
Mr. Toshihiro Harada
Senior Vice President & Head of Trade Solution Group
Tel: +8621 3860 9293
Email: toshihiro_harada@cn.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Lanxy Xu
Assistant Vice President,Trade Solution Group
Tel: +8621 3860 9296
Email: lanxy_xu@cn.smbc.co.jp

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SMBC GLOBAL DIRECTORY


Mr. Makoto Ueda
Assistant Vice President,Trade Solution Group
Tel: +8621 3860 9292
Email: makoto_ueda@cn.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Stella Jiang
Assistant Vice President,Trade Solution Group
Tel: +8621 3860 9298
Email: stella_jiang@cn.smbc.co.jp

PT Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Indonesia


Your contact point Jakarta
Trade Finance Marketing Department, Jakarta
Mr. Bachtiar Marbun
Head of Trade Finance Marketing Department
Tel: +6221 522 6305
Email: bachtiar_marbun@id.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Fitria Anggraini
Tel: +6221 522 7011 ext. 583
Email: fitria_anggraini@id.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Rolan Ganda
Tel : +6221 522 7011 ext. 372
Email: rolan_ganda@id.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Feby Rizky Andhika
Tel: +6221 522 7011 ext. 338
Email: feby_rizky@id.smbc.co.jp

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The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

Forthcoming 2013 events


The perfect mix of market insight and networking
TRADE FINANCE EVENTS

PROJECT FINANCE EVENTS

February 28th & March 1st 2013

March 5th & 6th 2013

15th Annual Structured Trade and Export


Finance in the Americas Conference

7th Annual Latin American Energy &


Infrastructure Finance Forum

The Biltmore at Coral Gables, Miami

Biltmore Hotel at Coral Gables, Miami

April 18th & 19th 2013

6th Annual Structured Trade and Export


Finance in Russia/CIS Conference
Kempinski, Moscow

March 27th & 28th 2013

6th Annual Turkey Energy and


Infrastructure Finance Conference
The Mvenpick, Istanbul

June 5th & 6th 2013

10th Annual Global Commodities Finance


Conference
President Wilson, Geneva

April 30th & May 1st

June 10th & 11th 2013

The Hyatt Regency, Houston, Texas

North America Midstream Infrastructure


Finance Forum

4th Annual Global Export Finance


Washington Conference
St Regis, Washington
September 11th & 12th 2013
16th & 17th September 2013

The 8th Annual North American Energy and


Infrastructure Finance Conference

7th Annual Trade and Commodity Finance


in Brazil Conference

Westin, New York

Grand Hyatt, Sao Paulo


23rd & 24th September 2013

14th Annual Global Export Finance


Conference
Hotel Arts, Barcelona
October 2013

Export Finance Germany Conference


Raddisson Blu, Berlin

For more information please visit www.euromoneyseminars.com or call our


events team on +44(0) 20 7779 7222 or email tbarnes@euromoneyplc.com

GALLERY GLOBAL EXPORT & AGENCY FINANCE EVENTS 2012

Global Export & Agency Finance Events 2012


Each year SMBC plays a leading role in three of the most important events in the
Export & Agency Finance calendar.

250

3rd Annual Global Export & Agency


Finance Conference Asia Pacific

3rd Annual Global Export Finance


Conference Americas

13th Annual Global Export Finance


Conference EMEA

Jakarta, Indonesia
February 2012

Washington, DC, USA


June 2012

Barcelona, Spain
October 2012

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

GALLERY GLOBAL EXPORT & AGENCY FINANCE EVENTS 2012

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

251

FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR GLOBAL TRADE

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CALENDAR OF EVENTS
Trade Finance Magazine and selected industry events in 2013*
check www.tradefinancemagazine.com for updates.
Trade Finance Magazine events are shaded

January
January 14

DEADLINE for Trade Finance Deals of the Year 2012

January 23-27

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2013

Davos-Klosters, Switzerland

January 28-30

BAFT-IFSA 2013 Europe Bank-to-Bank Forum

Intercontinental Hotel, Frankfurt,


Germany

January 29-30

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 4th Annual Global The Grand Hyatt, Jakarta, Indonesia
Export & Agency Finance Conference Asia Pacific

February
February 13th

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas


Winter Cocktail reception

Yale Club, New York, NY, USA

February 18-20

International Petroleum Week

London, UK

February 28
March 1

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 15th Annual


Structured Trade & Export Finance in the
Americas Conference

The Biltmore Hotel, Coral Gables,


Miami, USA

March 5

Swift Operations Forum America

New York, NY, USA

March 13-17

Inter-American Development Bank Annual Meeting

Panama City, Panama

March 21

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas


Panama seminar-reception

Panama City, Panama

March 21-22

15th Annual Syndicated Loans Conference

Jumeirah Carlton Tower Hotel,


London, UK

March 27-28

6th Annual Turkey Energy and Infrastructure


Finance Conference

Mvenpick Hotel, Istanbul, Turkey

March

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

253

CALENDAR OF EVENTS
April
April 3

9th Annual IFC Trade & Supply Chain Seminar

IFC Headquarters,
Washington, DC, USA

April 4-5

US Ex-Im Annual Conference 2013

The Omni Shoreham,


Washington, DC, USA

April 8

Swift Business Forum Canada

Toronto, Canada

April 15-19

ICC Banking Commission Spring Meeting

Lisbon, Portugal

April 18-19

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 5th Annual


Structured Trade & Export Finance in Russia/CIS
Conference

Baltschug-Kempinski,
Moscow, Russia

April 19-21

2013 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and


the International Monetary Fund

Washington, DC, USA

April 22

ICC World Trade Agenda Summit/ World


Chambers Congress

Doha, Qatar

April 23-25

Berne Union Spring Meeting 2013

New York, NY, USA

April 23-25

World Economic Forum on Latin America 2013

Lima, Peru

May
May

30th Anniversary Issue of Trade Finance Magazine

May

Trade Finance Awards for Excellence 2013

May 2-5

46th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank

May 8-10

World Economic Forum on Africa 2013

Cape Town, South Africa

May 10-11

EBRD Trade Finance Conference/ Annual Meeting

Istanbul, Turkey

May 22-24

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas


Annual Conference

Miami, FL, USA

May 24-26

World Economic Forum on the Middle East and


North Africa 2013

Dead Sea, Jordan

May 27-29

Prague Club Spring Meeting 2013

Prague, Czech Republic

New Delhi, India

June
June 5-6

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 10th Anniversary President Wilson Hotel,
Global Commodities Finance Conference
Geneva, Switzerland

June 5-7

World Economic Forum on East Asia 2013

Myanmar

June 9-11

XXIX Congreso LatinAmericano de Comerico Exterior

Panama City, Panama

June 10-11

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 4th Annual


Global Agency & Development Finance Conference

St Regis Hotel, Washington, DC, USA

June 20

Trade Finance Global/EMEA Awards Dinner

The Sheraton Park Lane, London, UK

June 27

Trade Finance Americas Awards Dinner

The Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY

Trade Finance Asia Pacific Awards Dinner

The Hilton, Singapore

July
July 3

254

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

CALENDAR OF EVENTS
September
September

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars Trade & Export


Finance Turkey Conference

September 16-17 Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 7th Annual


Trade & Commodity Finance Brazil Conference
September

Istanbul, Turkey
Sao Paulo, Brazil

International Forfaiting Association AGM & Conference Malta

September 16-19 Sibos 2013

Dubai, UAE

September 18

New York, NY, USA

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas


Summer Cocktail reception

September 23-24 Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 14th Annual


Global Export Finance Conference

Hotel Arts, Barcelona, Spain

October
October

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 2nd Annual


Export Finance Germany Conference

Berlin, Germany

October

Berne Union Annual Meeting

October

IFC Annual Bank Partners Meeting

October 7

LME Week Metals Seminar

London, UK

October 8

LME Week Dinner

London, UK

October 11-13

2013 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and


the International Monetary Fund

Washington, DC, USA

October 16

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas


Canada seminar-reception

Toronto, Canada

October 21-25

ICC Banking Commission Autumn Meeting

Vienna, Austria

November
November

World Economic Forum on India 2013

November

Trade Finance & Euromoney Seminars 5th Annual


Johannesburg, South Africa
Structured Trade & Export Finance in Africa Conference

November 6

2nd Annual ICC Supply Chain Financing Conference

Paris, France

November 17-19

Felaban Annual Assembly 2013

Miami, FL, USA

December
December 4

Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas AGM New York, NY, USA

*All information correct at the time of going to press some event dates may be subject to change.

To stay up-to-date with all Trade Finance and Euromoney Seminars events, follow us on
Twitter @TradeFinance and @EMSeminars

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

255

QUICK REFERENCE
IMF World Economic Outlook GDP Growth Projections
(Percent change unless noted otherwise) Year over Year

World Output (1)


Advanced Economies
United States
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Other Advanced Economies (2)
Newly Industrialized Asian Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3)
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
Russia
Excluding Russia
Developing Asia
China
India
ASEAN-5 (4)
Latin America and the Caribbean
Brazil
Mexico
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa (5)
South Africa
European Union
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates
World Trade Volume (goods and services)
Imports
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Exports
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Commodity Prices (USD)
Oil (6)
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights)
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (3)
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent) (7)
On US Dollar Deposits
On Euro Deposits
On Japanese Yen Deposits

2011
3.9
1.6
1.8
1.4
3.1
1.7
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
2.6
3.3
4
6.3
5.3
4.9
4.3
6.2
8
9.3
7.9
4.5
4.5
2.7
3.9
3.5
5.3
3.5
1.6
2.9
5.9

2012
3.2
1.3
2.3
0.4
0.9
0.2
2.1
1.4
2
0.2
2
1.9
1.8
5.1
1.8
3.6
3.6
3.9
6.6
7.8
4.5
5.7
3
1
3.8
5.2
4.8
2.3
0.2
2.5
2.8

2013
3.5
1.4
2
0.2
0.6
0.3
1.0
1.5
1.2
1
1.8
2.7
3.2
5.5
2.4
3.8
3.7
4.3
7.1
8.2
5.9
5.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
5.8
2.8
0.2
2.7
3.8

2014
4.1
2.2
3
1
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.7
1.9
2.3
3.3
3.9
5.9
3.1
4.1
3.8
4.7
7.5
8.5
6.4
5.7
3.9
4
3.5
3.8
5.7
4.1
1.4
3.4
5.5

4.6
8.4

1.2
6.1

2.2
6.5

4.1
7.8

5.6
6.6

2.1
3.6

2.8
5.5

4.5
6.9

31.6
17.8

1
9.8

5.1
3.0

2.9
3.0

2.7
7.2

2
6.1

1.6
6.1

1.8
5.5

0.5
1.4

0.7
0.6

0.5
0.1

0.6
0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 12December 10, 2012. When
economies are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
(1) The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.
(2) Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.
(3) The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80% of the emerging market and developing economies.
(4) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
(5) Regional and global aggregates include South Sudan.
(6) Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $105.08
in 2012; the assumed price based on futures markets is $99.71in 2013 and $96.78 in 2014.
(7) Six-month rate for the United States and Japan. Three-month rate for the euro area.

256

The SMBC TRADE FINANCE Almanac 2013

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