Probability that a Statement Is True

Probability that a statement is true: p(S). Often

referred to as your prior belief (or just your
prior).

Bayesian Updating

Examples:
Matthew ate an orange today.
Political Science 201b / Psychology 332b
March 23, 2012

Matthew intends to vote for Obama.

Matthew will run for President.

Probability that an Event Is True

Conditional Probability: p(E|S)

Probability that an event is true: p(E).

Probability that an event is true conditional on S being

true: p(E|S).

Examples:
All of the oranges are rotten.

Examples:
Probability that all of the oranges are rotten,
conditional on Matthew having eaten an orange
today.

Matthew signs up with the Romney campaign.

Matthew emigrates to Canada.

Probability that Matthew signs up with the

Romney campaign, conditional on Matthew

intending to vote for Obama.
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Conditional Probability: p(S|E)

Bayes Theorem

Probability that a statement is true conditional on E

being true: p(S|E).

Putting the four terms together, we get

p (S|E) =

Often referred to as your posterior belief or just

your posterior. Its the main quantity of interest.

p (E|S) p(S)
,
p(E)

which is Bayes Theorem.

Examples:
Probability that Matthew intends to vote for
Obama, condition on Matthew joining the
Romney campaign.

Bayes Theorem tells us what our posterior should

be, given the three other quantities.

Why Should People Be Bayesian?

Further Notes on Computation

 \ 
 \ 
p S
E =p E
S

(1)

Suppose that S is either true or false, and E either

happens or doesnt.

T
p (S E)
p (S|E) =
p(E)

(2)

Let S mean S is true and S mean not S or

S is false.
In this case, p(E) = p(E|S)p(S) + p(E|S)p(S).

Conditional probability. . . Axiom 2 is conditional

probability. It tells you the probability of one thing
conditional on the probability of another thing. // If you
accept the axioms, you are logically committed to
Bayes.
If you dont accept the axioms . . .

This can help us . . .

Further Notes on Computation

Canonical Example: Disease Testing

We now know p(E) = p(E|S)p(S) + p(E|S)p(S).

p (S|E) =

So Bayes Theorem is
p (S|E) =

p (E|S) p(S)
p (E|S) p(S)
=
.
p(E)
p(E|S)p(S) + p(E|S)p(S)

p (disease|pos. test) =

p (E|S) p(S)
p(E)

p (pos. test|disease) p (disease)

.
p (positive test)

This is useful because its sometimes easier to think

about p(E) after we decompose it.
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Disease Example, continued

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Disease Example, continued

The disease affects 1% of the population. So

p (disease|pos. test) =
p (disease|pos. test) =

p (pos. test|disease) (.01)

.
p (positive test)

p (pos. test|disease) (.01)

.
p (positive test)

There is a test for the disease. It is 95% accurate:

95% of people who have the disease test positive. So

p (disease|pos. test) =

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(.95)(.01)
.
p (positive test)
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Disease Example, continued

p (disease|pos. test) =

Disease Example, continued

(.95)(.01)
p (pos. test)

(.95)(.01)
p (pos. test | dis.) p (dis.) + p (pos. test | ~dis.) p (~dis.)

(.95)(.01)
.
(.95)(.01) + p (pos. test | ~disease) (.99)

Now we only need to know the false-positive rate for

the test, p (pos. test | no disease) .

(.95)(.01)
(.95)(.01) + p (pos. test | ~dis.) (.99)
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Disease Example, continued

=

Disease Example, concluded

Even after testing positive, your chance of carrying the
disease is under 25%.

(.95)(.01)
(.95)(.01) + p (pos. test | ~disease) (.99)

Many tests are better than this. But when you think
about testing, think about false positives and chances
of successful detection.

Suppose that the false-positive rate is 3%. Then

=

14

(.95)(.01)
.24.
(.95)(.01) + (.03)(.99)

Note about base rates. In this example, we assumed

that your prior was the base rate in the population.
We didnt need to do that.

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Will Romney Win the 2012 Election?

S is Romney will win.
S is Romney will not win.
p(S) = 2/5; p(S) = 3/5 (courtesy of inTrade).
E is Romney giving up in MI before Election Day.
p(E|S) = .2; p(E|S) = .5.

p(S|E) =

(.2)(2/5)
21%.
(.2)(2/5) + (.5)(3/5)
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