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CMP (Rs)
FY17E Target Price (Rs)
Volumes (BSE+NSE)*
Shares (mn)
Market Cap (Rs mn)
52 Week H/L (Rs)
Free Float (%)
Bloomberg Code
Reuters Code
Industrial Goods
333
389
14600
13.6
4529
352/185
43.3
AWL IN
ADOR.BO
Accumulate
Shares
(mn)
Holding
(%)
7.7
0.0
2.2
3.7
13.6
56.7
0.0
16.2
27.1
100.0
Promoters
FIIs
DIIs
Others
Total
Source : BSE
Financial Highlights
(Rs Mn)
Sales
Sales Growth
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROE
FY15
3,861
4.0%
7.5%
319
23.4
14.2
15.0
15.7%
FY16E
4,225
9.4%
11.0%
270
19.9
16.8
9.1
12.9%
FY17E
4,853
14.9%
12.0%
353
26.0
12.8
7.2
16.0%
Price Chart
AdorWelding 2YearPriceChart
322
222
Oct15
Jun15
Aug15
Apr15
Feb15
Oct14
Dec14
Jun14
Aug14
Apr14
Feb14
Dec13
122
Quantum Securities
Company Background
Ador Welding Ltd (AWL), incorporated in the year 1951, is one of Indias leading players in the field of Welding
Products Technologies & Services. AWL offers comprehensive welding solutions, which includes a wide variety
of electrodes, fluxes, flux-cored wires and special customized electrodes. The Company covers the need of a
whole range of industries like, steel, petro-chemicals, fertilizer, hydro-electric, thermal & nuclear power, heave
machinery, ship-building etc. AWL has reach in 70 plus countries and a comprehensive distribution network
across the country with 300 plus distributors.
Business Segments
AWL operates in two business segments; 1) Welding Consumables and 2) Welding Equipment and Project. In
the organized segment of the Indian welding industry, AWL has ~13% market share in welding consumables
and ~23% market share in welding equipment. The Company has four manufacturing plants across India, out
of which three (Raipur, Silvassa, Chennai) are for consumables and the fourth one at Chinchwad in Pune caters
to AWLs equipment and project engineering business.
BusinesssegmentsofAdorWelding
WeldingEquipmentandProject
WeldingConsumables
Plantlocation:Chinchwad,Pune
Marketshare:23%
Revenuecontribution:30%(FY15)
Totalcapacity:1,05,000MT
SilvassaPlant:35000MT
RaipurPlant:35000MT
ChennaiPlant:35000MT(currentlysuspended)
Marketshare:13%
Revenuecontribution:70%(FY15)
WeldingEquipment
Revenuecontribution:80%
Project
Revenuecontribution:20%
Welding Consumables
This segment is into manufacturing of welding consumables (both manual and continuous) which include
electrodes, fluxes, flux cored wires and special customized electrodes. At present The total installed capacity of
welding consumables stands at 1,05,000MT spread across its three plants at Silvassa, Raipur and Chennai.
Due to industrial slowdown in last few years its Silvassa and Raipur plants are operating at 50% capacity
utilization, while the operation at its Chennai plant is currently suspended (from May 2014).
Welding Equipment and Project
This segment includes Equipments, Spares, Cutting Products and agency items related to Equipment and
cutting products. Apart from the welding equipment, this segment also has a Project Engineering Division
(PED) which undertakes Engineering, Procurement and commissioning of flares, incinerators, furnaces, etc.
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Quantum Securities
Domestic growth driver : Demand revival to drive volume growth in consumables
The welding industry in India has been expanding due to growth in end-use industries such as automobile &
transportation, and building & construction. The welding consumables market accounts for a significant share
in the welding industry compared to welding equipment and welding services. In India the welding
consumables market is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 5.6% from 2014 to 2020. The markets value as
recorded in 2013 was Rs 30.8bn. The overall value of the India welding consumables market is expected to
reach Rs 45.3bn by the end of 2020. The domestic welding consumables industry is moderately fragmented
with 40% being shared by hundreds of unorganized (small & regional) manufacturers while the balance 60%
is accounted by the organized players like AWL, ESAB etc. Currently AWLs share in the organized market for
consumables stands at ~13% while ESAB has a market share of ~23%.
Market share of various players in welding consumables
Unorganised,
40%
ESAB,23%
Organised,
60%
Others,24%
AWL,13%
Welding consumables & equipment caters to the need of a whole range of industries such as steel,
petrochemicals, fertilizers, hydro electric and thermal power, nuclear power, ship building, heavy machinery,
defense, automobile, general fabrication and engineering. The growth in these sectors is merely the reflection
of how the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shapes up in the economy. With gradual recovery expected in
the IIP index over FY15-17E, the demand for industrial products will also improve. This demand revival will in
turn drive the volume growth of consumables for AWL. In our model we have factored in a 7.5% CAGR growth
in welding consumable segment for AWL over FY15-17E.
Welding Consumable Segment Revenue Growth Trend
30%
3600
3000
15%
2400
1800
0%
1200
600
0
-15%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Growth (%)
Page 3
Quantum Securities
Change in revenue mix towards more of equipment and projects will aid margins
The welding consumables segment currently contributes 70% (FY15) of the total revenues whereas rest 30%
is accounted for by the equipment and project engineering division. Further in the latter segment, 80% of the
revenues are being contributed by the welding equipment while the balance comes from the Project
Engineering Division (PED). Over the last few years equipment and project segments share in AWLs revenue
mix has steadily increased from 23% in FY12 to 30% in FY15. Going forward we expect AWLs equipment and
project segment revenues to contribute as much as 35.3% to its consolidated revenue in FY17E.
AWLs revenue mix over the years
3,139
1,714
2,854
1,371
2,718
959
2,756
781
2,822
1,000
2,628
2,000
2,234 718
3,000
828
4,000
1,143
5,000
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
0
Consumables
Equipment&Projects
As the equipment and project segment offers better margins compared to consumables, AWLs EBITDA margin
is expected to witness decent expansion going forward with higher share of equipment business. In our model
we have factored in a 450bps expansion in AWLs consolidated EBITDA margin over FY15-17E.
AWLs EBITDA Margin Trend
20%
15.8%
15%
11.1%
10%
11.0%
9.3%
7.2%
12.0%
7.5%
5%
0%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Page 4
Quantum Securities
Zero debt company with clean balance sheet and consistent dividend payout
AWL has one of the cleanest Balance Sheets apart from being a debt free company. The current cash balance
of AWL at the end of FY15 stands at Rs 198mn, which is expected to increase to Rs 330mn by FY17E. Further
AWL has a track record of paying dividend for more than 12 years with the current dividend yield placed at
1.8%. Going forward with improving EBITDA margins and profitability, we expect AWLs dividend yield to reach
3.3% in FY17E from 1.8% in FY15.
AWLs Dividend Yield over the years
4%
3%
3.3%
2.2%
2%
3.3%
1.8%
330
282
300
217
198
200
1.8%
1%
100
47
0%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
20%
25%
15.8%
20%
15%
11.1%
10%
15%
11.0%
12.0%
7.2%
9.3%
7.5%
5%
15.7%
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
12.9%
9.3%
16.0%
20%
10%
5%
7.8%
0%
0%
3.0%
5%
10%
10%
FY13
25%
15%
7.8%
5%
0%
15.5%
11.3%
10%
5%
19.7%
FY14
FY15
ROE
FY16E
FY17E
ROCE
Page 5
Quantum Securities
Outlook
Ador Welding Limited (AWL), one of the leading players in the welding consumables & equipment space, is well
placed to benefit from the expected pick-up in the domestic investment cycle, especially in the core
infrastructure space resulting in improved demand for its welding products. In India the welding consumables
market is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 5.6% from 2014 to 2020. With gradual recovery expected in the IIP
Index, the demand for industrial products will also improve, which in turn would help AWL to clock 7.5% CAGR
growth in consumables over FY15-17E. With improving capacity utilization of welding consumables and rising
share of higher margin equipment and project business in its revenue mix (35% in FY17E against 30% in
FY15), AWLs consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to witness 450bps expansion in over FY15-17E. With
higher capacity utilization and expansion in EBITDA margin, we expect AWLs PAT to witness a CAGR of 5.3%
over FY15-17E, while revenue will witness a CAGR of 12.1% over the same period.
Valuations
At CMP of Rs 333, AWL trades at a P/E of 12.8x FY17E EPS of Rs 26. AWL reported 11.3% ROCE in FY13,
which subsequently came down to 7.8% in FY15. With higher capacity utilization, expansion in EBITDA margin
and improved profitability, we expect AWLs ROCE to improve from 7.8% in FY15 to 15.5% in FY16E and
19.7% in FY17E. ROE will also improve from 9.3% in FY13 to 12.9% in FY16E and 16% in FY17E respectively.
This will in turn drive the re-rating of the stock. We remain positive on Ador Welding (AWL) from a longer term
perspective and expect the financial performance of the company to improve substantially in the next 2-3
years, with revival in the capex cycle of the Indian economy. Giving a target P/E multiple of 15x to its FY17E
EPS of Rs 26, we arrive at a target price of Rs 389 for the stock, which gives an upside potential of 16.8%. We
assign an Accumulate rating on AWL with a medium to longer term view.
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Quantum Securities
Income Statement (consolidated)
(Y/E March) (Rs mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Net sales
3,650
3,713
3,861
4,225
4,853
2,377
2,456
2,650
2,915
3,397
375
398
370
414
485
Employee cost
Other expenses
558
591
552
431
388
3,310
3,445
3,571
3,760
4,271
EBITDA
340
268
289
465
583
Depreciation
124
123
125
125
132
EBIT
216
145
164
340
451
Interest
10
21
12
Other income
38
50
44
46
53
245
174
196
386
504
130
-282
245
44
478
386
504
76
95
159
116
151
169
-51
319
270
353
169
-51
319
270
353
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
136
136
136
136
136
Reserves
1,687
1,549
1,889
1,967
2,070
Net worth
1,823
1,685
2,025
2,103
2,206
90
173
86
86
86
1,917
1,863
2,113
2,189
2,292
Gross block
2,236
2,294
2,313
2,438
2,538
1,422
1,521
1,340
1,464
1,596
815
774
974
974
942
18
16
16
16
271
138
65
65
65
572
927
1,050
1,135
1,270
1,917
1,863
2,113
2,189
2,292
Total expenses
PBT
Extraordinary
PBT after Extraordinary
Tax
PAT
MI & Associates
PAT after MI & Associates
Total borrowings
Deferred tax liabilities
Capital Employed
Net block
CWIP
Investments
Deferred tax assets
Net current assets
Total Assets
Page 7
Quantum Securities
Cash Flow Statement (consolidated)
(Y/E March) (Rs mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
PBT
245
44
478
386
504
Depreciation
124
123
125
125
132
(8)
(29)
(32)
(46)
(53)
361
138
571
465
583
(142)
(49)
(266)
(44)
(211)
219
89
305
421
372
Less: Taxes
(73)
(89)
(52)
(116)
(151)
145
(1)
253
305
220
(Inc)/dec in FA+CWIP
(141)
176
(18)
(117)
(100)
101
134
73
(40)
310
55
(117)
(100)
(71)
235
180
120
(8)
83
(171)
(2)
Equity raised
(143)
(73)
45
77
(95)
(80)
(82)
(149)
(149)
(97)
(140)
(327)
(105)
(72)
170
(19)
83
48
38
47
217
198
282
47
217
198
282
330
(Purchase)/sale of investments
Cash flow from investing
Free cash flow (FCF)
Loan raised/(repaid)
Dividend
CF from financing activity
Page 8
Quantum Securities
Key Ratios (consolidated)
(Y/E March) (Rs mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
7.1%
1.7%
4.0%
9.4%
14.9%
EBITDA
-10.4%
-21.3%
8.1%
60.6%
25.4%
PAT
-19.2%
-130.3%
523.5%
-15.2%
30.6%
EBITDA
9.3%
7.2%
7.5%
11.0%
12.0%
PAT
4.6%
-1.4%
8.3%
6.4%
7.3%
12.4
-3.8
23.4
19.9
26.0
134.0
123.9
148.9
154.7
162.2
P/E (x)
26.8
-88.6
14.2
16.8
12.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
13.4
16.8
15.0
9.1
7.2
2.5
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.1
11.3%
7.8%
7.8%
15.5%
19.7%
9.3%
-3.0%
15.7%
12.9%
16.0%
Growth (YoY)
Sales
Margins
P/B (x)
Return Ratios
ROCE
ROE
Disclaimer: Quantum Securities Pvt. Ltd. (QSPL) offers discount and full service brokerage services and is not involved in any investment banking or
merchant banking activities. This document is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and due diligence has been conducted to
that effect. We do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. Opinions & theories expressed are based on
present circumstances & judgment and are subject to change without notice. Quantum Securities Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document.
If annualized returns are greater than 15%, then the stock is rated as BUY, between a range of 10-15% is rated as Accumulate. If annualized returns are
lower than -15%, then the stock is rated as SELL and between a range of -10% to -15% is rated as Reduce. In the range of +/ (-) 10%, the stock is rated as
Hold. However, within this zone we may choose to give an Accumulate, Reduce or Hold rating.
Quantum Securities Pvt. Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company and has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject
company; QSPL or any of its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the
research report or any other compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Further, Monami Manna has not served as an officer, director
or employee of the subject company; QSPL does not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more of securities of the subject company, at the end
of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report.
Page 9