Eritrean Human development index (HDI)

I. Introduction
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index measuring average
achievement in three basic dimensions of human development - a long and healthy life,
access to knowledge and a decent standard of living.
Access to knowledge is measured by i) mean years of schooling for the adult
population, which is the average number of years of education received in a lifetime by
people aged 25 years and older and ii) expected years of schooling for children of
school-entrance age, which is the total number of years of schooling a child of schoolentrance age can expect to receive if prevailing patterns of age-specific enrollment rates
stay the same through the childs life. Standard of living is measured by Gross National
Income (GNI) per capita expressed in constant 2005 international dollars converted
using purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. (Refer to HDI Report 2013 by UNDP)
The method of calculating mean years of schooling (MYS) is based on the distribution of
the population by age group and the highest level of education attained in a given year
and time series data with the official duration of each level of education. For each
group, the proportion that attained a given level of education is multiplied by the official
duration of that level.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) delivers annual human
development reports every year. The HDI ranks human wellbeing by measuring
inequality in education, life expectancy, and income. The top and the bottom of the
ranking remain unchanged: on the top step Norway (0.944), Australia (0935), and
Switzerland (0930) and on the bottom we have Eritrea (0.391), Central Africa Republic
(0.350) and Niger (0.348).
The HDI is based primarily on international data from the United Nations Populations
Division; the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organizations
(UNESCO) Institute for Statistics (UIS); and the World Bank.
The HDI report categorizes the countries into four human development groups:
HDI

Very high human development

Life Expectancy
at birth
0.896
80.5

Expected Years
of Schooling
16.4

Mean Years of
Schooling
11.8

GNI Per Capita

41,584

High human development

0.744

75.1

13.6

8.2

13,961

Medium human development

0.630

68.6

11.8

6.2

6,353

Low human development

0.505

60.6

9.0

4.5

3,085

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II. Eritrean Policy of Education

The Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE) considers education as a key to national
development. Education for all (EFA) was pursued in post independence period with
renewed vigor by spearing it to all parts of the country.
The 2010 National Education Policy underlined that the Ministry of Educations (MoE)
commitment on reaching the unreached and the goal for creating a literate society that
promote and facilitate good quality education to all children and at all levels. It called for
the provision of free and compulsory basic education; the use of the mother tongue as a
medium of instruction at the elementary level; and the expansion of secondary and
tertiary education opportunities was the most essential components of the education
system. These include the Complementary Elementary Education (CEE) for children
who fail to enroll into elementary school at the right age, education for pastoral
communities (ECD), and adult literacy.
The MoE has developed ECD policy to ensure early childhood care and education
(ECCE) services to be equitably distributed in Eritrea. In the years from 2000/01 to
2012/13, the number of elementary grade-one entrants who attended ECCE increased
from 16.5% to 30.6%.
The successful development of a region is determined by the quality of human
resources. Education is one way of improving the quality of human resources.
Therefore, improving the quality of education must be pursued, beginning with opening
greater opportunities for residents to education, to improving the quality and quantity of
educational facilities and infrastructure. To find out how many people take advantage of
educational facilities can be seen from the percentage of the population according to
school enrollment. To see the participation of schools in an area commonly known as
multiple indicators to find out, among other things: School Participation Rate (APS), the
gross enrollment rate (GER), and the enrollment rate (NER).
Gross enrollment rate (GER) is the percentage of the population who were at school at
a level of education (regardless of age) to the number of school-age population
corresponding to the level of education.
GER is used to measure the success of the education development program organized
in order to expand opportunities for people to get an education. GER is the simplest
indicator to measure the absorption of the school age population in each education
level. GER values can be over 100%. This is because the population of students who
attend school in an education covers children aged beyond school age education is
concerned.
Enrollment rate (NER) is the percentage of school-age children in the group who were
at school at a certain level of education in accordance with the age of the total number
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of children in the school age group when GER is used to determine how many schoolage children, who are able to take advantage of educational facilities at a given level of
education regardless of how old it is, the enrollment rate (NER) measures the proportion
of children who go to school on time.
The Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) and net enrollment ratio (NER) values for Eritreas
ECCE were recorded as 8.6% (boys 8.7%, girls 8.5%) and 6.1% (boys 6.2%, girls 6.1%)
in 2000/01 versus the 28.0% (boys 27.6%, girls 28.3%) and 16.8% (boys 16.6%, girls
17.0%) in 2012/13.
As per the article by Dr. Fikrejesus Amahazion on 23 September 2015, Eritrea has
prioritized education as a key pillar within its national policy and broader framework for
development, socio-economic growth, and poverty alleviation. The paper mentioned
that at independence, the countrys literacy rates (across all ages) were quite low,
particularly for girls and women, and overall enrollment rates (within primary levels)
hovered around 30 percent. Education was made compulsory, for both girls and boys,
and the country also proceeded to build hundreds of schools in both rural and urban
areas.
The paper asserted that the country allocated 8-10% of its national budget and hence
primary enrollment rates are now approximately 90 percent while both gender disparity
and adult literacy have dramatically improved.
The countrys focus on rapid
improvement on primary education to share parallel with South Korea. The number of
students enrolled in higher education dramatically rose from between 3,500-5,000 to
nearly 18,000 today.
It concluded that Eritrea has made considerable, tangible
improvements in education throughout the country and to continue to invest within
education across all levels further expanding quantity and enhancing quality.

III. Eritreas Demography:

There is no demographic statistics provided by the Eritrean Government per se. In line
with this, also, there are no statistics provided on population, education and other social
variables by the National Statistics and Evaluation Office. Hence, it becomes a sine
qua non to look into other source of information. Such data was only available, on UN
organizations like UNDP and UNESCO, World Bank and CIA. These data are mainly
estimates and analyses based on these estimates cannot give right results. This is
evidenced in the HDI reports of various years for the country.
As of 18 December 2015 (country meters.info), Eritreas total population is estimated to
be 6,742,868. Out of this, 3,323,269 (49.3) are male and 3,419,599 (50.7%) female.
The estimates on the population made by the above mentioned website and are
adjusted every second and minute.

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The Eritrean age structure as of January 2015, showed the following details.
Age Structure

Number of Population

Percentage

Under 15

2,777,766

42.1

15-64

3,579,161

54.3

239,996

3.6

65+

The CIA - the world factbook - estimates the Eritrean urban population to be 22.6% of
the total population in 2015. This figure is also reflected in geohive.com
As shown in the below ethno-demographic map, population is concentrated in TigrignaTigre area (85%).

It can be deduced from this fact that the possibility of high enrollment in school and the
provision of educational services to be accessed within a possible range of area to be
realistic. This is because the urbanization effect is much higher here as the main cities,
towns and big villages are located in these areas.
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The following data is taken from en.wikipedia.org

List of Cities in Eritrea

Rank

City

Population

Region

1984
2010 Estimates
Census
475,385
649,707 Maekel

* Estimare for
2015

Asmara

Keren

Teseney

52,531

64,889 Gash-Barka

73,162

Mendefera

22,184

63,492 Debub

71,587

Agordat

15,948

47,482 Gash-Barka

53,535

Assab

31,037

39,656 Southern Red Sea

44,712

Massawa

15,441

36,700 Northern Red Sea

41,379

Adi Quala

14,465

34,589 Debub

38,999

Senafe

14,019

31,831 Debub

35,889

10

Dekemhare

17,290

31,000 Debub

34,952

11

Segeneiti

13,328

27,656 Debub

31,182

12

Nakfa

20,222 Northern Red Sea

22,800

13

Adi Keyh

8,691

19,304 Debub

21,765

14

Barentu

2,541

15,467 Gash-Barka

17,439

15

Beilul

N/A

14,055 Southern Red Sea

15,847

16

Edd

N/A

12,855 Southern Red Sea

14,494

17

Ghinda

7,702

10,523 Northern Red Sea

11,864

18

Mersa Fatuma

N/A

9,542 Southern Red Sea

10,758

19

Himbirti

N/A

8,822 Maekel

9,946

20

Nefasit

N/A

8,727 Maekel

9,839

126,149

732,544

146,483 Anseba

N/A

165,159

1,457,852

Total

* There are different population annual growth rates for Eritrea: 2.3% (indexmundi.com), 3.2%
(en.wikipedia.org and data.un.org), 2.21% (tradingeconomics.com and multpl.com), and 2.51%
(eritrea.be). * The average of these rates is 2.555 and is used for the 2015 estimates.

Hence, the estimated 2015 population of 1,457,852 comprised 21.6% of the 6,742,868.
This is close to the estimate of 22.6% or urban population of Eritrea as reported by CIA.
There are other settlements, as per the above mentioned data, which are, Adi
Tekelezan, Afabet, Areza, Badme, Bisha, Debaysima, Digsa, Emba Derho, Felhit, Filfil,
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Hazega, Kudo-Felasi, Matara, Mai Mine, Mersa Gulbub, Mersa Teklay, Om Hajer, Per
Tokar, Quatit, Rehayta, Sebderat, Tserona, Tsazega, Zula, and Zahgir. The population
of these semi towns would naturally increase the population with access to education as
do the urban population.
The purpose of presenting the above information on population and cities and towns is to
at least make a fair guess on the provision of schooling. Even the big villages are covered
by educational facilities. Hence, it is logical to conclude that the wide spectrum of the
Eritrean population to have educational facilities provided and thus the larger part of the
Eritrean people to have enjoyed educational services. This can be augmented by the
statistics of UNESCO. (emphasis added)

The information provided by UNESCOs national education profile for Eritrea in 2014
for literacy rate among youth and adult population was as follows and the comparison to
the low income countries was also provided by the same United Nations organization.
Eritrea - Age 15-24

91.0%

Low income countries

73.5 %

Age 15+

70.5%
58.5%

Hence, this achievement of illiteracy rate can give us a clue to the provision of
education to wider spectrum of the population in Eritrea as compared to low income
countries.

IV. The Human Development Index (HDI) of Eritrea

The HDI of Eritrea, as evidenced in the different annual reports, fall in the low HDI group
in general and as one of the last ranking countries in particular. The following scenario
shows the various years of HDI values for Eritrea.
Year
2005

Life
Expectancy
58.6

Expected Years of Mean Years

Schooling
of Schooling
4.7
3.7

GNI per
Capita
1,319

HDI Value

HDI Rank

0.389

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

61.5

4.1

3.9

1,072

0.381

2011

62.1

4.1

3.9

1,129

0.386

2012

62.7

4.1

3.9

1,169

0.390

2013

63.3

4.1

3.9

1,147

0.390

2014

63.7

4.1

3.9

1,130

0.391

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177

186

UNDP Briefing note for 2015 HDR for Eritrea

The amazing thing is that the HDI for 2005 is higher than 2010 and 2011. The data
reported for Eritrea for year 2012 is not completely at par with the above. Please see
the below and you will notice the differences in all the parameters, i.e., 4.6 against 4.1.
Year

Life Expectancy at
birth

1980

43.9

Expected
years of
schooling
3.4

Mean years of
schooling

GNI per capita

(2005 PPP$)

HDI Value

1985

44.9

3.4

1990

48.2

3.4

1995

52.5

3.4

2000

56.2

4.6

2005

58.8

5.4

2010

61.2

4.6

3.4

0.342

2011

61.6

4.6

3.4

0.346

2012

62.0

4.6

3.4

0.351

The Report of the 2012, as shown in the above table, puts on record that Eritreas HDI
value for 2012 is 0.351in the low human development categorypositioning the
country at 181 out of 187 countries and territories. Between 2010 and 2012, Eritreas
HDI value increased from 0.342 to 0.351, an increase of 3 percent or average annual
increase of about 1.3 percent.
The rank of Eritreas HDI for 2011, based on data available in 2012 and methods used
in 2012, was 182 out of 187 countries. In the 2011 HDR, Eritrea was ranked 177 out of
187 countries. However, it is misleading to compare values and rankings with those of
previously published reports, because the underlying data and methods have
changed. Why data change is not understood!! If the figures used in computation
of the HDR are based on wrong or for that matter fictitious figures, then anomalies
would result and thus causing problem of consistency. This phenomenon is common in
the HDI reports. Sound statistics data should be used so that appropriate HDR can be
drawn and reported.
Besides this, the expected years of schooling for 2005 (4.7) is higher than the years for
2010 to 2014 (4.1). Also, the expected years of schooling and the Mean Years of
Schooling are the same from 2010 to 2014 without any change despite the coverage of
education increased as tried to discuss in the foregoing part of this paper.
The life expectancy as per the latest World Health Organization (WHO) is expected to
be 67 in comparison to the African life expectancies of 52 and global average of 66
years of age. This is by comparison higher to the data shown in the above table.
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The explanatory note on 2013 HDR for Eritrea showed completely different figure. The
expected years of schooling was 5.4 for 2005 and 4.6 for years 2010 to 2012. The
mean years of schooling on the contrary showed a lesser figure of 3.4 for years 2010 to
2012 as against the other table showing of 3.9. The Brief also mentioned that Eritrea
had HDI value of 0.351 and ranked 181 in 2012. It was also mentioned that in the year
2011, Eritrea was ranked 177 out of 187 countries.
All these paradoxes did not go
unnoticed by the report. It made a remark that to be misleading to compare values and
rankings with those of previously published reports because of changes in underlying
data and methods. This is a self-defeating argument and unprofessional.
There were reports by Harry Hare in April 2007 on ICT in education in Eritrea ranking
Eritrea 157 out of 177 in HDI. There were also UNDP reports of HDI ranked as 157 out
of 177 with HDI of 0.454 in 2006, and 165 out of 177 in 2009 with HDI of 0.472, both
listed under low human development group. In year 2011, UNDP ranked Eritrea 177 out
of 187 countries and in this report, the expected years of schooling was 4.8 years and
the mean of schooling 3.4 completely in disagreement with the data shown in the above
table. Kindly note the anomalies in the above two tables in respect with expected years
of schooling and mean years of schooling as discussed earlier. Hope the observations
in each years HDI calculation are the same unless guess-work is made in arriving the
results.
Amazingly, Eritrea had HDI of 0.483 for the year 2005 as reported by the World Health
Organization. (who.int). In 2006, UNDP ranked Eritrea as 156 out of 177 countries with
0.439 HDI. Why Eritrea from being 156 went to the last ranking country? Hope
politics does not intrude into the statistics or econometric evaluation. In this context,
reference to the definition of statistics has to be made to show how the reports by
UNDP with regard to the HDI are unprofessional. Statistics is the science of learning
from data, and of measuring, controlling, and communicating uncertainty; and it thereby
provides the navigation essential for controlling the course of scientific and societal
advances.
Moreover, statisticians provide crucial guidance in determining what
information is reliable and which predictions can be trusted. They often help
search for clues to the solution of a scientific mystery and sometimes keep investigators
from being misled by false impressions. The observations actually do not change.
Forget the rudimentary statistics tools as the UNDPs calculation of the mean years of
schooling is based on econometrics.
In econometrics, several testing methods are
used to ensure that the results derived are well fit .

Eritrea: Average years of schooling, ages 25 and above, total (years): factfish.com is
shown below and these figures are higher than the one shown above by UNDP.

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Year

Value

2015

5.4

2010

4.9

2005

4.3

Average years of schooling, ages 15 and above, total (years) 105

Average years of schooling, ages 15-19, total (years)
107
Average years of schooling, ages 15-44, total (years)
105
Average years of schooling, ages 15-64, total (years)
104
Average years of schooling, ages 20-24, total (years)
107
Average years of schooling, ages 25 and above, total (years) 102
Average years of schooling, ages 25-29, total (years)
107
Average years of schooling, ages 30-34, total (years)
104
Average years of schooling, ages 35-39, total (years)
103
Average years of schooling, ages 40-44, total (years)
98
Average years of schooling, ages 45-49, total (years)
109
Average years of schooling, ages 45-64, total (years)
108
Average years of schooling, ages 50-54, total (years)
110
Average years of schooling, ages 55-59, total (years)
110
Average years of schooling, ages 60-64, total (years)
111
Average years of schooling, ages 65 and above, total (years) 107
Average years of schooling, ages 65-69, total (years)
108
Average years of schooling, ages 70-74, total (years)
107
Average years of schooling, ages 75-79, total (years)
110
Average years of schooling, ages 80 and above, total (years) 111

5,7 2015
6,0 2015
6,2 2015
5,9 2015
6,7 2015
5,4 2015
6,5 2015
6,4 2015
5,9 2015
5,8 2015
4,4 2015
3,7 2015
3,8 2015
3,1 2015
2,5 2015
1,6 2015
2,1 2015
1,6 2015
0,8 2015
0,4 2015

Education statistics for Eritrea by World Bank as of December 2014 made a projection
of the mean years of schooling for the age group 25+ of male. In this projection, the
value for the mean years of schooling was 5.67 years (2005), 6.23 years (2010), and
6.63 years (2015) (knoema.com)
Mean years of schooling projected by World Bank for 2050 is 8.145 (Eritrea), 10.225
(Kenya), 5,801 (Ethiopia), and 10.278 (Uganda). Eritreas projection is higher than
Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, Tanzania, and Mozambique.
Besides this, with the 22% and over urban population, the possibility of joining school in
Eritrea is very high. Thus, the expected years of schooling and the mean years of
schooling should likely be higher compared to UNDPs indexes.
It has a massive intake of 22,000 students in 2007 (Norwegian Church Aid). Sometimes
this number was reported as 17,000 in 2013. (chritianitytoday.com) The number of
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students in higher education institutions has increased from around 5,000 students
attending classes at the University of Asmara in 2004 to approximately 17,000 students
in 2012 attending higher education programs at the new colleges. http://www.nokut.no/
Documents/NOKUT/Artikkelbibliotek/Kunnskapsbasen/Rapporter/UA/2013/Gulliksen_AnneKari_Audensen_Erik_Report_on_recognition_of-higherr_education in Eritrea and Ethiopia 2013-1 _

There is an evident problem of statistics in the HDI of UNDP. Different figures are
presented in different websites as similar to that of HDI of UNDP.

V. Conclusion:
What happens when the data are wrong for the HDI?????
First, it taints the image of the country by putting wrong information in it's ranking or
assigning to it a very low HDI and posing critical reviews and presentations by world
organizations and even its citizens. In this connection, the following are quoted to put
the record straight right.
Awate Team in its March 17, 2013, article Eritreas Dismal Human Development Report
commented on the Eritrean low HDI and mentioning that it is only ahead of 6 mostly
warn-torn countries of Niger, Congo, Mozambique, Chad, Burkina Faso and Mali. It
made a remark on its low (reported albeit may not be right) HDI as a reflection of
improper administration and the government as a wanton violator of Eritreans civil
liberties and human rights. Not much may be a necessity to argue on these points as
the countries mentioned are not in a war position as compared to Eritrea and not sure
which Congo the article is referring to.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) just released its annual Human
Development Report and Eritrea is ranked third from bottom, next to Central African
Republic and Niger, in Human Development Index (HDI). Of the 188 countries listed,
Eritrea is ranked # 186. http://awate.com/author/salyounis/
Kiros Beyene, in his article Progress: Eritreas Human Development Status an overview
of the 2014 Human Development Report, commented that the Government of Eritrea
did not want the world to know how the countrys resources are being distributed among
its people and thus a lack of data contributed to appropriate HDI or IHDI figures for
Eritrea. He asserted that the Government would be blind in denial of the facts and we
all know that life and wellbeing of our people is going from bad to worse in every minute
and every day.
Second, UNDP in its HDI Report on 2015 for Eritrea mentions that it is misleading to
compare values and rankings with those of previously published reports, because of
revisions and updates of the underlying data and adjustments to goalposts. Readers are
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advised to assess progress in HDI values by referring to table 2 (Human Development

Index Trends) in the Statistical Annex of the report. Table 2 is based on consistent
indicators, methodology and time-series data and thus shows real changes in values
and ranks over time, reflecting the actual progress countries have made. Small changes
in values should be interpreted with caution as they may not be statistically significant
due to sampling variation. Generally speaking, changes at the level of the third decimal
place in any of the composite indices are considered insignificant. All indices and
indicators, along with technical notes on the calculation of composite indices, and
additional source information are available online. http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
The suspicion for correctness of the data is high. As a matter of fact, data cannot
change or cooked as needed.
There should be consistency and as shown in the
passages above, there were different figures of HDI, expected years of schooling and
mean years of schooling reported for the same year. This poses critical review and from
the outset and a matter of professional perspectives. The reports need much to be
desired.
Hence, statistical results should be examined if they fit and econometric analyses
should be tested using econometric tools. Otherwise, the reports would fail under the
category of GIGO (garbage in garbage out).
It is noted that inconsistent statistical results, misuse of various statistical tests, and
ordinary typos. It is mentioned in the UNDP report that a number of countries are
missing data for one or more of the four HDI components. Hence, the HDI was
calculated for only 169 countries (168 UN member countries plus the Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region of China). Micronesia entered the HDI table for the first
time this year while Zimbabwe re-entered. Antigua and Barbuda, Bhutan, Cuba,
Dominica, Eritrea, Grenada, Lebanon, Oman, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Seychelles, and Vanuatu dropped from the table
because data were missing. (UN Statistics Division)
Hence, how the calculation of HDI for Eritrea done if data is missing? It looks awkward.
It looked to go to common statistical tests used by scientists to produce a number called
the p value that quantifies this. Heres how its defined: The P value is defined as the
probability, under the assumption of no effect or no difference (the null hypothesis), of
obtaining a result equal to or more extreme than what was actually observed. It goes
without saying that an in-depth and critical review of the reports to be necessary as the
problem of the computation looks much pronounced and unprofessional.
Third, the Ministry of Education of Eritrea and Statistics Office need to do a lot in
providing timely information to UNDP with the performance of education and the
related statistics. It is said that information is ammunition. Some countries do
provide fake information to present their countries as best performers. It is obvious
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that Eritrea has gone by leaps and bounds in extending educational and health
services. Hope this case will not prevail in future and in the coming HDI report for
Eritrea so that misleading information will not persist.
Fourth, hope Eritreans in a range of social science disciplines like economists,
statisticians, econometricians and specialists in demography and populations,
especially in educations will add some flavor to this paper by critically reviewing it
against the UNDPs skewed HDI Reports.
We need to play with cards not to sink but to swim and to survive and not to
perish because Eritrea is a country of can-do people!!!!
Long live Eritrea!!!!

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