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Learning Objectives
Upon successful completion of Chapter 7, you will be able to:
Find the confidence interval for the mean, proportion, and variance.
Determine the minimum sample size when determining a confidence interval for the mean
and for a proportion.
Level of confidence, maximum error of Estimate (E) and the sample size are inter-related.
I. Inference Includes:
1. Estimation of a population parameter (, , or ) using data from a sample.
2. Hypothesis Testing or using sample data to test a conjecture about the population mean (),
population proportion (), or population standard deviation ( ).
Stat 200
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Yes
Yes
Is the
population normally
distributed?
Yes
No
Is
known?
Yes
No
Is n > 30?
Is the
population normally
distributed?
No
Yes
Use nonparametric or
bootstrapping methods.
t
Use the t distribution
No
Is n > 30?
No
Use nonparametric or
bootstrapping methods.
Elementary Statistics: Using the Graphing Calculator for the TI-83/84, Triola, Mario F.
Stat 200
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I. Requirements
a) the population standard deviation ( ) is given
b) the sample size n 30;
c) But, if the sample size n < 30, the variable must be selected from a normal
distribution
II. Confidence Coefficient
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.90
.95
.10
.05
.05
.025
Add the integer and tenths digits to the hundredths digits to find the value for z.
4.
Affix a
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Using the method described, complete the table below. The first 2 have been
completed for you (answer at the end).
Confidence Level
1
.90
.95
.99
.80
.98
.96
.93
.10
.05
/2
(1 ) +
.95
.975
.95
.975
Confidence Coefficient
(/2)
1.645
1.96
< < +
Whenever the population standard deviation is known and either the population is
normally distributed or n 30, the Central Limit Theorem guarantees the sample mean is
normally distributed or:
<
<
< <
< < +
( ) < () < ( + )
( ) > () > ( + )
+ > >
< < +
< < +
< < x + t
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4.97, rounded to 5, is the maximum error of estimate. Be sure to list it for full
credit in your answers.
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b) Find the 99% confidence interval estimate of the mean reading scores of all fifthgraders. Since approximately 99% of the sample means will fall within 2.58 standard
errors of the population mean, use z = 2.58
= 82.1, = 35, = 15
< < +
82.1 2.58
15
35
15
35
82.1 6.5
6.54, rounded to 6.5, is the maximum error of estimate. Be sure to list it in the
next to last step.
c) Is the 95% confidence interval or the 99% confidence interval larger? Explain why.
95% confidence level: 77 < < 87
99% confidence level: 75 < < 89
The 99% confidence level is larger because it has a larger z value.
Question 1
A study of 40 English composition professors showed that they spent, on average, 12.6
minutes correcting a students term paper.
Find the 90% confidence interval of the mean time for all composition papers when = 2.5
minutes.
n = 40 = 12.6
Since the population standard deviation is given and n = 40 is greater than 30, use the formula:
+
<<
If a professor stated that he spent, on average, 30 minutes correcting a term paper, what
would be your reaction?
Stat 200
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VII. Find the Sample Size Using E and the Confidence Level
a) Concept: E is like tolerance or allowable error where:
=
=
b) Formula for the Minimum Sample Size for an Interval estimate of the population
mean
=
where E is the maximum error of estimate. If the answer is not a whole number,
round up to the next larger whole number to find the sample size, n. If the population
standard deviation is not available use the sample standard deviation.
c) Example:
An insurance company is trying to estimate the average number of sick days that fulltime food service workers use per year. A pilot study found the standard deviation to
be 2.5 days. How large a sample must be selected if the company wants to be 95%
confident of getting an interval that contains the true mean with a maximum error of
1 day?
s= 2.5
. .
= =
= .
= .
=
Dr. Janet Winter, jmw11@psu.edu
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Question 2
Find the sample size necessary to estimate a population mean to within 0.5 with 95%
confidence if the standard deviation is 6.2
=
Note: When solving for sample size n, always round up to the next larger integer.
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Read textbook page 362 (6th Edition) or page 370 (7th Edition) for the comparison
between Normal and t distributions.
Stat 200
or
d.f. = n 1
Page 10
V. Example:
28 employees of XYZ Company travel an average (mean) of 14.3 miles to work. The
standard deviation of their travel time was 2 miles. Find the 95% confidence interval of
the true mean or population mean.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use the formula:
< <+
14.3 2.052
28
= 28
= 14.3
=2
: 27
28
14.3 .8
VI. Example:
The average yearly income for 28 engineering graduates in 2008 is $56,718. The
standard deviation was $650.
1. Find the 95% confidence interval estimate for the population mean.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use the formula:
< <+
$, .
= 28
= 56718
= 650
: 27
Note: Now that you are familiar with this problem, it is simpler to record the steps:
.
.
If an individual graduate wishes to see if he or she is being paid below average, what
salary value should he or she use?
Use the lower bound of the confidence interval: $56,466.
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Question 3
The prices (in dollars) for a particular model of 6.0 megapixels digital camera with 3x optical
zoom are listed as: $225, $240, $215, $202, $206, $211, $210, $193, $250, $225. Estimate
the true mean using this data with 90% confidence.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use:
the calculator. This is a sample, so be sure to use s and work in 2 more places than the data
and round the answers to one more place than the data.
= .
Question 4
= .
= .
John wants to estimate the average value of the homes in his town with a 99% confidence
interval. Use his random sample of 36 homes with an average value of $251,131.42 and
standard deviation $1321.46 to find the confidence interval.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use the formula - X t
. .
The degrees of freedom equals 35, but df = 35 is not available in the table. Use the next
lower df or df = 34.
Where x = number of sample units that possess the characteristics of interest and
n = sample size.
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1. The mean of is
2. The standard deviation for becomes:
=
.
(1 )
=
=
=
(1 )
2
(1 )
Next we use the pattern for the confidence interval estimate of the population mean, point
estimate
(
)
It becomes
Note: a shorter version of the formula to estimate the population proportion is:
E. Example:
1. 55 students in a random sample of 450 enrolled in summer classes. Estimate the
population proportion of students taking classes this summer.
= =
= . =.
= .
<<
. .
. .
. .
. < < .152
. % < < 15.2%
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Question 5
A survey found that out of 200 students, 168 said they needed loans or scholarships to pay
their tuition and expenses. Find the 90% confidence interval for the population proportion
of students needing loans or scholarships.
= .
= .
< < +
Question 6
A study by the University of Michigan found that one in five 13 and 14 year olds is a
sometime smoker. To see how the smoking rate of the students at a large school district
compared to the national rate, the superintendent surveyed two hundred 13 and 14 year
old students and found that 23% said they were sometime smokers. Find the 99%
confidence interval of the true proportion and compare this with the University of
Michigans study.
= 200
= 0.23
= 1 0.23 = 0.77
< < +
2
=
Use from a pilot study or previous estimate if it is available. Otherwise, use = .5. must
be a whole number. If its not a whole number, round up to the next larger whole number.
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G. Example:
A medical researcher wishes to determine the percentage of drivers using GPS systems in
their car. He wishes to be 99% confident that the estimate is within 2 percentage points of
the true proportion. A recent study of 180 drivers showed that 25% used GPS systems.
a) How large should the sample size be? Since a recent study showed 25% used GPS
Systems, = 0.25 = 0.75.
.
2
=
2.58 2
= 0.25 0.75
. 02
= 3120.187
Since the computed n is not a whole number, round up and use n = 3121.
b) If no estimate of the sample proportion is available, how large should the sample be?
Since there is no prior estimate of p, use p = 0.5 and q = 0.5
= .
.
= . .
Since the computed n is a not a whole number, round up and use n = 4161.
Note: the sample size needs to be larger when there is no prior estimate for p.
Stat 200
()
or =
()
Page 15
B. Chi-Square Distribution
Reference textbook page 378 (6th Edition) or page 386 (7th Edition).
I. Characteristics
Chi-Square is always positive.
It is a family of distributions dependent on degrees of freedom (n 1).
The mode is always slightly to the left of degrees of freedom.
As n increases, Chi-Square walks off to the right.
Chi-Square distribution is skewed to the right.
II. Finding Chi-Square values on the Chi-Square table
Since
is not symmetrical, two different
values are used in the confidence interval
formula for the population variance.
For
For
table for
Process:
1. Use the confidence level
to find
.
2. Use the
column with the appropriate degrees of freedom to find
right.
3. Find
.
4. Use the
column with the appropriate degrees of freedom to find
left.
Chi-Square Values of df: 18
Chi-Square left
Left
Confidence Level
Right
Chi-Square right
9.390
8.231
10.865
7.015
6.265
.95
.975
.90
.99
.995
.90
.95
.80
.98
.99
Stat 200
.05
.25
.10
.01
.005
28.869
31.526
25.989
34.805
37.156
Page 16
C. Formulas
1. Confidence Interval Estimate for the Population Variance:
df: n - l
Note:
right is on the left side of the equation but the right side of the graph and
left is on the right side of the equation but the left side of the graph.
E. Example:
Find the confidence interval for the standard deviation in the time it takes to fill a car with
gas. In a sample of 23 fill-ups, the standard deviation of the time it takes to fill the car is 3.8
minutes. Assume the variable is normally distributed.
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Note: the answer has the same number of decimal places as the given sample standard
deviation since the work is done with statistics instead of data.
Question 7
Find the 99% confidence interval for the variance and standard deviation of the weights of
one-gallon containers of motor oil when the sample of 14 containers has a variance of 3.2.
Assume the variable is normally distributed.
F. Example:
The number of calories in a 1-ounce serving of various regular cheeses is shown. Estimate
the population variance with 90% confidence.
110
130
45
100
100
80
95
105
110
105
110
90
100
110
110
70
95
125
120
108
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Question 8
A service station advertises a wait of no more than 30 minutes for an oil change. A sample
of 28 oil changes has a standard deviation of 5.2 minutes. Find the 95% confidence interval
of the population standard deviation of the times spent waiting for an oil change.
( )
( )
<
<
VII. Summaries
You always need to know both the confidence level and the maximum error of estimate.
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C. Rounding Rules
I. For Estimates of the Mean
a) When using actual data:
(a) find the mean and standard deviation to 2 extra places than the date.
(b) round the answer to one more decimal place than the original data.
Note: This is very important! Answers not rounded correctly are marked wrong on
Mathzone.
b) When using a mean and standard deviation, work with one more decimal place than
the data and round to the same number of decimal places given for the mean.
II. For Estimates of the Standard Deviation or Variance
a) When using actual data:
(a) find the standard deviation to 2 extra places than the data.
(b) round the answer to one more decimal place than the original data.
b) When using sample standard deviation or variance, work with one more decimal
place than the statistic and round to the same number of places as the standard
deviation or variance given.
III. For Estimates of the Proportions
a) Always use 4 decimal places for the computation and round the answers to 3
decimal places.
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Page 20
2
.05
.025
.005
.10
.075
.10
.05
.01
.20
.15
Confidence
Level
1
.90
.95
.99
.80
.98
.96
.93
.10
.05
.01
.20
.02
.04
.07
/2
.95
.975
.995
.90
.99
.98
.965
(1 ) +
.95
.975
.995
.90
.99
.98
.965
Stat 200
Confidence Coefficient
(/2)
1.645
1.96
2.58
1.28
2.33
2.05
1.81
Page 21
Answer: Question 1
A study of 40 English composition professors showed that they spent, on average, 12.6 minutes
correcting a students term paper.
a) Find the 90% confidence interval of the mean time for all composition papers when = 2.5
minutes.
n = 40
X= 12.6
Since the population standard deviation is given and n=40 is greater than 30, use the formula:
< < +
2.5
2.5
12.6 1.645
< < 12.6 + 1.645
40
40
12.6 0.6502 < < 12.6 + 0.6502
12.6 0.7 < < 12.6 + 0.7
. < < 13.3
b) If a professor stated that he spent, on average, 30 minutes correcting a term paper, what would
be your reaction?
11.9 < < 13.3
It would be highly unlikely since 30 minutes is far longer than the upper bound of 13.3 minutes.
Answer: Question 2
Find the sample size necessary to estimate a population mean to within 0.5 with 95% confidence if
the standard deviation is 6.2.
2
=
(1.96)(6.2)
=
= [24.304]2 = 590.684
0.5
= 591
Note: When solving for sample size n, always round up to the next larger integer (Why?)
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Answer: Question 3
The prices (in dollars) for a particular model of 6.0 megapixels digital camera with 3x optical zoom
are listed as: $225, $240, $215, $202, $206, $211, $210, $193, $250, $225. Estimate the true mean
using this data with 90% confidence.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use: X t
calculator. This is a sample, so be sure to use s and work in 2 more places than the data and round
the answers to one more place than the data.
= 217.70
217.70 1.833
= 17.49
17.49
10
= 1.833
: 9
= 10
217.7 10.1
. < < 227.8
Note: and are found to two decimal places more than the data, but the answer is rounded back
to one more place than the data.
Answer: Question 4
John wants to estimate the average value of the homes in his town with a 99% confidence interval.
Use his random sample of 36 homes with an average value of $251,131.42 and standard deviation
$1321.46 to find the confidence interval.
Since the population standard deviation is not given, use the formula X t
The degrees of freedom equals 35, but df = 35 is not available in the table. Use the next lower df or
df = 34.
.
251131.42 2.728
1321.46
36
251131.42 600.82
. < < 251732.24
Note: Since statistics are given, work one more place than the statistic but round the answer back
to the same number of places as .
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Answer: Question 5
A survey found that out of 200 students, 168 said they needed loans or scholarships to pay their
tuition and expenses. Find the 90% confidence interval for the population proportion of students
needing loans or scholarships.
= 0.84
= 0.16
< < +
0.84 0.16
0.84 0.16
0.84 1.645
< < 0.84 + 1.645
200
200
0.84 1.645(0.84 0.16 200)
0.84 0.043 < < 0.84 + 0.043
0.797 < < 0.883
. % < < 88.3%
Answer: Question 6
A study by the University of Michigan found that one in five 13 and 14 year olds is a sometime
smoker. To see how the smoking rate of the students at a large school district compared to the
national rate, the superintendent surveyed two hundred 13 and 14 year old students and found
that 23% said they were sometime smokers. Find the 99% confidence interval of the true
proportion and compare this with the University of Michigans study.
.
= 200
= 0.23
0.23 2.58
0.23 0.77
200
< < +
= 1 0.23 = 0.77
Since 1/5 = 0.20, the University of Michigan study falls within the confidence interval and it is OK.
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Answer: Question 7
Find the 99% confidence interval for the variance and standard deviation of the weights of onegallon containers of motor oil when the sample of 14 containers has a variance of 3.2. Assume the
variable is normally distributed.
= 14
( 1) 2
2 = 3.2
( 1) 2
2
< < 2
13 3.2
13 3.2
< 2 <
29.819
3.565
.
Note: The answer has the same number of decimal places as the given sample standard deviation.
Answer: Question 8
A service station advertises a wait of no more than 30 minutes for an oil change. A sample of 28 oil
changes has a standard deviation of 5.2 minutes. Find the 95% confidence interval of the
population standard deviation of the times spent waiting for an oil change.
( 1) 2
27 5.22
43.194
< 2 <
< 2 <
( 1) 2
27 5.22
14.573
Works Cited
Triola, M.D., Marc M. and Mario F. Triola. Biostatistics for the Biologoical and Health
Sciences. New York: Pearson Education, Inc., 2006.
Stat 200
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