Name: Kunal Ramnatsing

Student ID: 1598852

Module: Experiments and Statistics 1 (Dr. Carol Kong)

EXPERIMENT AND STATISTICS- ASSIGNMENT 1

Part I: Normal distribution and confidence interval
Let X be the random variable, for the lifetime of a bulb, in hours. If the value, X for a bulb is
less than 3000 hours, the latter is regarded as bad. Assuming that both process follow a
normal distribution,
From Process I,
Mean, 1 =3675
Standard deviation, =430

From Process II,

Mean, 2 =4500
Standard deviation, =980

X~N (3675, 4302)

X~N (4500, 9802)

P(X<3000) = P(Z<

30003675
430

P(X<3000) = P(Z<

30004500
)
980

= P(Z>-1.570)

= P(Z>-1.531)

= 1-P(Z<1.570)

= 1-P(Z<1.531)

= 1- 0.9418

= 1- 0.9371

= 0.0582

= 0.0629

Therefore the probability that a bulb made from process I is regarded as bad in is 0.0582
and the probability that a bulb made from process II is regarded as bad is 0.0629. Out of a
certain number, n of bulbs produced by process I, 5.82 % will have a lifetime less than 3000
hours. Out of a certain number, n of bulbs produced by process II, 6.29 % will have a lifetime
less than 3000 hours. Process I is more suitable to use as it has a higher yield as there is a
larger percentage of bulb with a lifetime greater than 3000 hours being produced.
From Process I,
P(X<3000) = P(Z<

From Process II,

35003675
430

P(X<3000) = P(Z<

35004500
)
980

= P(Z>-0.4070)

= P(Z>-1.020)

= 1-P(Z<0.4070)

= 1-P(Z<1.020)

= 1- -1 (0.4070)

= 1- -1 (1.020)

= 1- 0.6579

= 1- 0.8461

= 0.3421

=0.1539

When specification for bad lamps is less than 3500 hours, the percentage of bad bulbs
produced by Process I and II are 34.21% and 15.39% respectively. There is then a much

higher percentage of bad bulbs produced by process I. Therefore, process II will be more
suitable.
Distribution Plot
Normal
30003500
Mean StDev
3675 430
4500 980

0.0009
0.0008

Density

0.0007
0.0006
0.0005
0.0004
0.0003
0.0002
0.0001
0.0000
1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2.
Let Y be the random variable diameter of one metal plug in centimetres.
Sample number, n=100
Sample mean, yy =25.10

Standard deviation of sample, s=0.12

Since the sample number, n is greater than 30 (n=100), the central limit theorem can applied
and the sample is approximately normal. Therefore, the unbiased estimate of the population

n
n1
=

variance is as follows:

Standard error of the mean=

2/ n] =

~N (, 2/ n)
For a 99.9% confidence interval,
P(a<z<b)=0.999
Upper tail probability= 0.0005, therefore
P(Z<z)= 0.9995
z= -1 (0.9995)
= 3.291
Therefore, P(-3.291<z<3.291)= 0.999

) s2 =

100
2
99 (0.12 )

100
(0.0144)/100] =
99

0.0144
99

99.9% Confidence interval for is given by ( yy 3.291 n

(25.10 +3.291

0.0144
99

, 25.10 -3.291

0.0144
99

99.9% Confidence interval for is: (25.06, 25.14)

Part II: Regression analysis and plotting graph

a)

Dial setting
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Mean cut lengths (mm)

49.987
54.133
58.115
62.379
66.252
69.765
74.24
77.541
82.468
86.263

Standard deviation
0.13383655
0.144840909
0.092646281
0.143406958
0.144360659
0.138904444
0.170293864
0.186455237
0.180419265
0.087819259

b)
Mean Cut length(mm) against Dial settings
90
85
80
75
70
Mean Cut Length
(mm)
mean
length65
(mm)

Linear (mean length (mm))

60
55
50
45
1

Dial Settings

c)

10

Residual Plots for Mean Cut Lengths (mm)

Normal Probability Plot

Versus Fits

99
0.2

Residual

Percent

90
50

-0.2
-0.4

10
1

0.0

-0.6
-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

50

60

70

80

Residual

Fitted Value

Histogram

Versus Order

90

Residual

Frequency

0.2
3
2
1
0

0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Residual

0.2

0.4

10

Observation Order

1. Calculate the mean lengths

2. Enter the values of the dial settings and the cut lengths
3. Go to Stat>Regression>Fitted Line Plot(for Linear/Quadratic/Cubic Regression
Model) >Regression
4. A window pops up. Choose graph. The following characteristics are the selected and
click ok.

From the histogram, we can see that the standard deviation of the mean cut lengths is
positively skewed. In the Versus fits, the points are scattered about the dotted line showing
that there is a linear relationship between the 2 variables. In the normal plot probability, the

plots are evenly scattered along the line of best fit. This shows that the cut lengths values
follow a normal distribution.

d) Yes, the length of cut rod vary linearly with the dial settings. When the mean value of the
lengths cut for each dial setting is plotted in Minitab and a line of best fit is drawn, the
correlation coefficient between the 2 variables is equal to +0.9997 (positive correlation). This
shows that there is a strong linear relationship between the dial setting and the cut rod
length.
Fitted Line Plot
Mean Cut Lengths (mm) = 46.08 + 4.006 Dial setting

Mean Cut Lengths (mm)

90

S
R-Sq
R-Sq(adj)

0.299147
99.9%
99.9%

80

70

60

50
0

10

Dial setting

e)
Length of metal plug to be cut = 68.0

0.1 mm

Maximum metal plug length, y1 = 68.10 mm

Minimum metal plug length, y2 = 67.90 mm
Let the Dial setting be denoted by x and the mean cut length be denoted by y.
Therefore, x1= 5.49675 and x2 = 5.44683
The dial setting for a metal plug length lies between 5.45 and 5.50. The closest setting
available to this range is 5.50. The Dial setting to be used should be 5.5.