Memo

To:

Interested Parties

From:

Jon Lerner

Date:

January 2, 2015

Re:

The 2016 U.S. Senate Race in Pennsylvania

___________________________________________________________________________
Pennsylvania campaigns are always competitive, and the 2016 U.S. Senate race will be no
different. Senator Pat Toomey clearly understands the challenge he faces, and is well
prepared for it. In fact, while the Toomey campaign expects and has planned for a tough
race, several factors actually understate Toomeys strengths and overstate the degree of
difficulty he faces.

The Myth of the Presidential Year

No Republican presidential candidate has carried Pennsylvania since 1988 thats six
consecutive losses. From that, some analysts conclude that Pennsylvania is bad for
Republicans at all levels in presidential years. The record is very different.
Last time a Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senator ran for reelection in a presidential
year, in 2004, Arlen Specter defeated Congressman Joe Hoeffel by 11 points, while
President George W. Bush lost to John Kerry by three points in the state. The time before
that, in 2000, Republican U.S. Senator Rick Santorum defeated Congressman Ron Klink
by six points, while Al Gore defeated George W. Bush for president by five. Before that,
in 1992, Specter won by three, while the presidential went to Democrat Bill Clinton by
nine.
The last three consecutive times incumbent Republican senators ran for reelection in
presidential years in Pennsylvania, the Republican won, despite a Democrat winning the
presidential election. The gap between the senate margin and the presidential margin was
14, 11, and 12 points. Presidential/Senatorial ticket splitting is the norm in Pennsylvania,
and not by just a little bit.
Furthermore, while Pennsylvania has been consistently blue at the presidential level, it
hasnt been blue by very much. President Obama carried the state by five points in 2012.
Only Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado were closer among the states Obama won.
Others that are often considered battleground states in presidential races, such as
Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, all saw larger Obama margins than
Pennsylvania. Compare the Obama five point margin with the 14, 11, and 12 point
swings between the presidential and senatorial margins in 2004, 2000, and 1992, and you
see how the presidential advantage is regularly overcome by Republican senate
candidates.

Beyond exclusively presidential years, Pennsylvania has been as red at the U.S. Senate
level as it has been blue for president. Since 1968, current Senator Bob Casey is the only
Democrat to win a non-special election for U.S. Senate (he has done so twice). Thus, in
the last 46 years, Republicans have won U.S. Senate elections in Pennsylvania fourteen
times, Democrats have won just twice.

The Toomey Record

Senator Pat Toomeys electoral and legislative records make him well suited to win in
swing political territory. Electorally, Toomey has won four general elections in
Pennsylvania and lost none. Of course, he won the statewide U.S. Senate election. Prior
to that, he won three victories in the old 15th congressional district, covering Allentown
and the Lehigh Valley. Notably, that congressional district had the same presidential
performance as the state as a whole, favoring every Democratic presidential candidate
since 1988. Toomey carried the district by comfortable margins three times, in the face
of significant Democratic targeting. In 2000, Toomey overcame presidential headwinds,
carrying the district by 6 points, while Al Gore won the presidential race in the district by
2 points.
Toomeys senate record also gives him an advantage he lacked in 2010. When running in
2010, Toomey was perceived in some quarters as strident or uncompromising. He now
has a record that proves the opposite. When examining Toomeys senate record, even the
liberal Philadelphia Enquirer editorial board noted, It should be comforting to
Pennsylvanians that their junior senator isnt afraid to reach across the aisle to the benefit
of all Americans. And this is not just one or two isolated cases. From debt reduction to
criminal background checks to Alzheimers research funding, and elsewhere, Pat
Toomeys record is filled with courageous stands in favor or progress for Pennsylvania
and America rather than partisan interests.

The Opposition
Senator Toomeys 2016 opponent is not yet known, and might well not become known
for sixteen months, until the April, 2016 Democratic primary. Already, several
Democratic heavyweight candidates have taken themselves out of contention, while
party leaders are openly seeking new options.
One candidate who is already in the field is former Congressman Joe Sestak, the same
candidate who lost to Toomey in 2010. Democrats are reportedly lukewarm on
Sestaks candidacy (Politics PA, 12-4-14). There are good reasons for that lack of
enthusiasm.
The record of rematch campaigns is dismal for challengers. Since 1990, there have
been twelve instances of back-to-back U.S. Senate or gubernatorial rematches. In eleven
of those twelve rematches, the challenger who lost the first race also lost the rematch. In
fact, each time the challenger lost by a larger margin in the rematch than in the initial
contest. These include such high profile rematches as Gantt/Helms and
2

Boschwitz/Wellstone in the U.S. Senate in the 1990s, and Walker/Barrett, Malloy/Foley,

and Haley/Sheheen in recent gubernatorial races. Voters, it seems, dislike when
politicians tell them they were stupid the first time around.
Further, Sestak political operatives are fond of referring to him as the Admiral. He
certainly earned that title. However, they seldom refer to him by his more recent title,
Congressman. Theres a reason for that. During Sestaks time in Congress, he
compiled one of the most radical voting records of anyone in Washington, and thats
saying something. Heres a small sampling. Sestak said the failed Obama stimulus was
too small, and advocated hundreds of billions in more wasteful spending. Sestak voted
for the Wall Street bank bailout. He voted for the cap-and-trade energy tax that would
devastate Pennsylvania jobs. Sestak thinks Obamacare didnt go far enough he
supported the more extreme single payer option that would have allowed private health
insurance to be banned entirely. Sestak refused to support bipartisan economic sanctions
against Iran. As bad as that record looked in 2010, the passage of time has made them
look even more out-of-touch with Pennsylvania voters.

In sum, the 2016 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race will be competitive they always are in the
Keystone State. However, politically, financially, and structurally, Senator Pat Toomey is well
prepared for the election. He has a remarkable record of success in the state and the proven
ability to overcome presidential headwinds, just as his GOP predecessors have frequently done.
Further, his opposition is divided and flawed. Pat Toomey enters the 2016 campaign cycle in a
strong position for reelection.