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Volume 12, Issue 1 January 2016

IN THIS ISSUE: GOP Caucus and Primary Electorates (Page 1),

Obamas Legacy (Pages 28), Views about Banning Muslims (Pages 910)

Voters in the Early GOP Caucuses and Primaries

The first four Republican caucus and primary electorates differ in some important respects, as these profiles show. Fifty-six percent in the 2012 Iowa GOP caucus entrance poll were white evangelicals, compared to 21 percent in the New Hampshire primary
exit poll. Forty-seven percent in Iowa were very conservative; 47 percent in New Hampshire were moderate or liberal. The results
below are similar to the 2008 results. In 2008, Barack Obama expanded the Iowa Democratic caucus vote substantially. Fifty-seven
percent told entrance poll interviewers they were first-time caucus-goers. Could Republicans do this? We will know soon.

2012 Republican Caucuses and Primaries

Iowa
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Nevada
(entrance poll)
(exit poll)
(exit poll)
(entrance poll)

Men
Women

57%
43

White
Non-white

54%
46
99%

51%
49
99%

53%
47
98%

Under 30 years
3044
4564
65 and older

15%
16
42
26

12%
19

Never attended college

Some college
College graduates

17%
31

13%
32
55

18%
36
47

13%
39
48

26%
37
37

36%
37
27

28%
44
28

By income
Under $50,000
$50,000$100,000
$100,000 or more

Support Tea Party

Neutral
Oppose

52

33%
39
28

White Evangelical/
Born again
Very conservative
Somewhat conservative
Moderate or liberal

21

56%

17

64%

21%
32
47

64%
17

30

8%
15

45
27

21%

47%
37

24
10

48

9%
19

90%

10

24%

36%
32
32

51%
8

27

43
35

49%
34
17

64%
5

19

75%

Note: In Iowa and Nevada, voters may participate in the caucuses if they will be 18 years old by the general election date. Only voters
registered with a party may participate in that partys caucus. In New Hampshire, undeclared voters and voters registered with a party
may vote in that partys primary. In South Carolina, voters may vote in either partys primary.
Source: National Election Pool, a consortium of five news networks and the Associated Press, 2012.

A M E R I C A N E N T E R P R I S E I N S T I T U T E
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Obama Legacy: Early Returns

As President Obama begins the final year of his presidency, what do current polls tell us about how Americans will assess
his legacy? Half now say Obamas failures will overshadow his accomplishments, while 44 percent believe his accomplishments will outweigh his failures. In the following pages, we examine opinion of Obama on the issues that have featured
most prominently during his tenure as presidentforeign policy, the economy, health care, and race relations. Views
about him are heavily influenced by partisan affiliation.
Q: In the long run, do you think the accomplishments of the _______ will outweigh its failures, or will the failures outweigh the accomplishments?

Accomplishments will
outweigh failures

Obama administration
January 2015
January 2014
January 2013
January 2012

Failures will
outweigh accomplishments

44%
39
46
43

George W. Bush administration

December 2008
January 2008
January 2007
January 2004

24%
28
31

Bill Clinton administration

January 2001
January 2000
August 1999
January 1999
September 1998

39

49

44

36

60%
51
56
50
52

Ronald Reagan administration

AprilMay 1987
February 1987

50%
47

53

64%
59

27%

37
38
34
35

46%
52

41%
38

Source: The Gallup Organization/Newsweek, February 1987; The Gallup Organization/Times Mirror, AprilMay 1987; Pew Research Center, latest that of January 2015.

Q: When Barack Obama finishes his second term as President next year, do you think . . . ?

National
response

----------Responses of----------Reps. Dems. Inds.

He will be remembered as . . .
One of the best presidents in
US history
Above average
About average
Below average
One of the worst presidents

10%

22
17

21

28

--
8%
18
26
48

20%
36
30
8
4

8%
20
31
18
22

Note: Responses shown by party ID are among registered voters.

Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll, July 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Obamas Overall Performance at Year Eight

Nationally, the presidents approval rating hovers around 45 percent. His disapproval rating has been higher than his
approval rating for almost all of the past two years in CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polls. Among Democratic registered voters, his approval rating is a strong 85 percent, compared to 65 percent who approve of Democrats in Congress.
Q: Do you . . . ?
100
90
80 76%
Approve of the way Barack Obama is
70
handling his job as president
60

52%

50

47%

40
30

Disapprove

20 23%
10
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Note: In Pews December 2015 survey, 46 percent said they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, while 49
percent said they disapprove.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of December 2015.

Q: In general, which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far? Would you say you are . . . ?


Very/Somewhat satisfied with
the Obama presidency so far
Very/Somewhat disappointed

National
response

----------Responses of----------Reps. Dems. Inds.

44%

55

7%
92

77%
22

43%
56

Note: When CBS/New York Times first asked this question in October 2010, 45 percent were very or somewhat satisfied, and 54 percent
were somewhat or very disappointed.
Source: CBS News/New York Times, November 2015.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job . . . ?

----------Responses of----------
Democratic registered voters

Approve of the job

Barack Obama is
85%
doing as president


Democrats in Congress
65%
are doing in office

Disapprove
11%

28%

Note: Asked of registered voters. Among registered voters overall, 48 percent approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president,
and 48 percent disapprove. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, while 55 percent disapprove.
Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll, OctoberNovember 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

How Democrats View Obamas Presidency

It is no surprise that Democrats have maintained a favorable view of Obamas presidency over the course of his tenure as
president. Eighty-one percent of Democrats say they would consider his presidency a success, and 77 percent report being
either very or somewhat satisfied with it. Republicans views of George W. Bushs presidency and Democrats views of
Clintons were more positive than Democrats current views of Obamas.
Q: Since the start of 2009 when Barack Obama became president, in general, would you say . . . ?
Q: Since the start of 2001 when George W. Bush became president, in general, would you say . . . ?
Q: Since the start of 1993 when Bill Clinton became president, in general, would you say . . . ?

National
--------------------Responses of members of the presidents party--------------------
response
Would you say _______ has been . . .

A success
A failure

Barack Obamas presidency
51%
47
45
50

79%
78
74
81

56%
83
47
42
46
40

87%
99
84
79
90
86

71%
81
68

92%
98
94

JulyAugust 2009^
January 2010^
January 2011^
March 2015

National
response

9% 37%
16 48
19 48
16 47

George W. Bushs presidency

August 2001^*
January 2002^
August 2005*
October 2005
January 2006*
August 2007*

8% 32%
-- 11
13 51
19 55
8 52
12 57

Bill Clintons presidency

January 1998
January 1999
August 2000

7% 25%
2 16
4 29

Note: Only the responses with publicly available party subgroup responses are shown. ^Question wording varied slightly. *Asked of a
half sample.
Source: Obama presidency: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of March 2015. Bush presidency: CNN/Opinion Research
Corporation, August 2007; CNN/USA Today/The Gallup Organization, latest that of January 2006. Clinton presidency: CNN/USA Today/The
Gallup Organization, January 1998 and August 2000; The Gallup Organization, January 1999.

Q: In general, which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far?
National
-------------------Responses of Democrats-------------------
National
response
response


Very/Somewhat satisfied
Very/Somewhat disappointed
45%

45

40

41

44

78%
82
75
72
77

October 2010
August 2012*
February 2014
September 2014
November 2015

21% 54%
18 55
24 59
25 57
22 55

Note: Only the responses with publicly available party subgroup responses are shown. *Asked of registered voters in August 2012.
Source: CBS News, August 2012; CBS News/New York Times, latest that of November 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Terrorism and Foreign Affairs: Declining Approval

As the graph below shows, approval of Obamas handling of terrorism and, separately, foreign affairs, has declined over the
course of his presidency. In June 2009, a majority (51 percent) said Obamas approach to foreign policy was about right,
but in December 2015, a majority (58 percent) said it was not tough enough.
Q: Do you . . . ?

100

Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling . . .

90
80
70
60
50
40

Terrorism

61%
54%

40%
38%

Foreign affairs

30
20
10
0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Note: Includes some half samples.

Source: The Gallup Organization and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of NovemberDecember 2015.

Q: Do you . . . ?
Approve of the way Barack Obama
is handling ISIS, the Islamic
militant group that controls
some areas of Iraq and Syria
Disapprove

33%

64

Note: In Gallups November 2015 poll, 30 percent approved of the way Barack Obama is handling The situation involving Islamic militants, commonly known as ISIS, in Iraq and Syria, and 64 percent disapproved.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, December 2015.

Q: Do you . . . ?
Approve of the way Barack Obama
is handling the threat of terrorism
Disapprove

37%

57

Source: Pew Research Center, December 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

Barack Obama is too tough in his
approach to foreign policy
and national security issues
Not tough enough
About right

December 2015

June 2009

2%
34

58

2%
38
51

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

The Economy: Obama Has Yet to Benefit from the Slow Recovery
Since September 2009, a majority has disapproved of Obamas handling the economy, with 54 percent giving that response
in a November 2015 Gallup poll. A Fox News question asked eight times since 2009 shows that registered voters are consistently divided about whether the Obama administration has made the economy better or worse. This assessment isnt
surprising in the context of Americans tenuous confidence in the economic recovery.
Q: Do you . . . ?

100
90

Disapprove of the way Barack Obama is

handling the economy

80
70
60

59%

54%

50

44%

40
30
20

Approve

30%

10
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Note: In Pews December 2015 survey, 43 percent approved of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy, while 51 percent disapproved.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?
------------------------------------------------------------Responses of registered voters-----------------------------------------------------------
The Obama administration has made the economy . . .

Better
40%
40
36
34
44
37
43
42

July 2009
January 2010
September 2010
July 2011
March 2012
July 2012
July 2013
July 2015

Worse

No difference (vol.)
32%
36

42

47
49

49
44
47

23%
21
12
12
10
10
7
8

Source: Fox News, latest that of July 2015.

The State of the Economy: In an October 2015 Fox News poll, 34 percent of registered voters said the economy
has not really recovered at all from the 2008 recession, and 44 percent said it has only somewhat recovered.
Nineteen percent said it has mostly recovered, and only 2 percent completely recovered. In the September
October 2015 Public Religion Research Institute survey, 72 percent nationally said the economy is still in a recession, while 27 percent said the recession is over.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Health Care: A Burden or Boon for the President?

Opinion of the Affordable Care Act has generally been more unfavorable than favorable since its passage in 2010, and a
majority have ususally disapproved of the way Obama is handling health care policy. Nevertheless, Americans remain
divided over how to move forward. Twenty-two percent in a recent Kaiser poll said they would like to see Congress
expand the law, while 35 percent said Congress should repeal it entirely.
Q: Do you . . . ?

70

Disapprove of the way Barack Obama is

handling health care policy

60

54%

50 50%
40

44%

44%
Approve

30
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2015.

Q: What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law?
National

response
Expand what the law does
Move forward with
implementing the law as is
Scale back what the law does
Repeal the entire law

----------Responses of----------Reps. Dems. Inds.

22%

14

8%

18
35

4
17
62

36%

17%

33
10
10

16
17
39

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, December 2015.

In November 2015, Gallup noted that Americans views of health care in the US and of their own health
care have remained largely unchanged since the passage of the Affordable Care Act. While people are still
dissatisfied with the cost of health care overall, they remain relatively satisfied with the quality of care they
receive and with their coverage.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow;
Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Editors: Heather Sims, Eleanor ONeil.

Design: Claude Aubert.

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other
resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational
organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Race Relations: Hope Without Change?

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll from January 2009 shows that Americans had high hopes for the Obama
presidency in terms of race relations. A plurality (43 percent) now say they have gotten worse since Obama became president. In a separate question, 45 percent of whites and 50 percent of blacks say Obamas presidency has not had much effect
on bringing whites and blacks closer together.
Q: Thinking specifically about the effect of Barack Obamas (2008) election as president on relations between blacks
and whites in this country, do you think . . . ?


His election is the start of a new
era of better race relations
His election will result in some
improvement in race relations
but not start a new era
His election will create no real change
in race relations in this country
His election will make race
relations worse

------------------------------------------------------------2009-----------------------------------------------------------Whites Blacks
Total
25%

49%

44

32

24

44

14

28%

21

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, January 2009.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Whites Blacks
Total
Approve of the way Barack Obama
is handling race relations
2009
56%
93% 61%
2015
48
84
55
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of June 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?


Relations between blacks and whites
in the US have gotten . . .
Better since Barack Obama
became president
Worse
Stayed the same

------------------------------------------------------------2015----------------------------------------------------------Whites Blacks
Total

17%
35

33%
35
32

47

20%
43
36

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, June 2015.

Q: Has Barack Obamas presidency . . . ?

Brought blacks and whites closer together
Pushed blacks and whites further apart
Has not had much effect one way or
the other

------------------------------------------------------------2015----------------------------------------------------------Whites Blacks
Total
11%

41
45

15

30%

15%
34
50

47

Source: CBS News/New York Times, July 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Trumps Muslim Ban: What People Really Think

Most polls show that around 60 percent of Americans oppose a ban on Muslims entering the US, though there are partisan divisions. Support is slightly higher for a temporary than complete ban, but both are minority opinions. Almost half
(46 percent) think a ban would have no effect on the United States safety from terrorism.
A mid-December Fox News question asked of registered voters found 55 percent (including 45 percent of registered
Democrats) in favor of temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the US until government
officials can say with confidence they can identify those who are coming here to cause the country harm.
Q: Recently, Donald Trump has called for a total and complete shutdown for any Muslim being allowed to enter the
United States. Do you . . . ?

----------Responses of---------
National response
Reps. Dems. Inds.
Strongly/Somewhat favor
Trumps proposal
Somewhat/Strongly oppose

25%

57

42%
36

11%
74

30%
55

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?


National response
The US should temporarily ban
Muslims from other countries
from entering the United States
Should not

36%

58

----------Responses of---------Reps. Dems. Inds.

54%
38

23%
73

35%
59

Source: CBS News, December 2015.

Q: Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the United States for the time being.
He says this would improve security against terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and its wrong to bar
people from the United States because of their religion. Whats your opinion? Would you . . . ?


National response
Strongly/somewhat support a ban on
Muslims entering the United States
Somewhat/Strongly think this would
be the wrong thing to do

36%
60

----------Responses of---------Reps. Dems. Inds.

59%

15%

38%

38

82

58

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2015.

Q: If Muslims are temporarily banned from entering the US, do you think . . . ?


National response
The US will be safer from terrorism
Less safe
The ban will have no effect
on the United States
safety from terrorism

19

28%

46

----------Responses of---------Reps. Dems. Inds.

45%
15

14%
27

27%
17

35

52

49

Source: CBS News, December 2015.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

Muslims and Islam

Half of Americans say they do not know any Muslims. Around 60 percent say they have a favorable opinion of them.
Responses to a recent Pew Research Center question about whether the Islamic religion is more likely than other religions
to encourage violence among its believers or whether it does not encourage violence more than others shows the public
split, 46 to 45 percent. In a differently worded question from ABC News/Washington Post, a majority (54 percent) say
mainstream Islam is a peaceful religion.
Q: Do you . . . ?


National response
Personally know someone who is
Muslim; is a close friend
18%
Personally know someone who is
Muslim; is not a close friend
30
I am or my family is Muslim
1
Do not know any Muslims
50

----------Responses of---------Reps. Dems. Inds.

13%

23%

18%

36
--
51

27
2
48

29
1
51

Source: CBS News, December 2015.

Q: Is your overall opinion of Muslims . . . ?

August June
2010* 2009

December 2015*

Very/Mostly favorable
Mostly/Very unfavorable
Not sure

59%

29

12

53%
28
19

52%
30
18

Note: *Asked of a half sample.

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2015.

Q: Which statement comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right?
The Islamic religion is
more likely than others
to encourage violence
among its believers
The Islamic religion does not
encourage violence more
than others

46%

45

Source: Pew Research Center, December 2015.

Q: Every religion has mainstream beliefs, and also fringe elements or extremists. Thinking of mainstream Islam, do you
think . . . ?
Mainstream Islam encourages
violence against non-Muslims
Mainstream Islam is a peaceful
religion

28%
54

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 10