LECTURE 4

POPULATION FORECASTING

WATER SUPPLY
Determination of population is one of the most
important factors in the planning of water supply
project.
Design period of the water supply project :20-40
years
The time lay between the design period and
completion should not be more than 2 years.

FLUCTUATIONS IN RATE OF DEMAND

Average Daily Per Capita Demand = Quantity Required in 12
Months/ (365 x Population)
If this average demand is supplied at all the times, it will not
be sufficient to meet the fluctuations.
Seasonal variation: The demand peaks during summer.
Firebreak outs are generally more in summer, increasing
demand. So, there is seasonal variation .
Daily variation depends on the activity. People draw out
more water on Sundays and Festival days, thus increasing
demand on these days.

FLUCTUATIONS IN RATE OF DEMAND

Hourly variations are very important as they have a wide range. During
active household working hours i.e. from six to ten in the morning and
four to eight in the evening, the bulk of the daily requirement is taken.
During other hours the requirement is negligible. Moreover, if a fire breaks
out, a huge quantity of water is required to be supplied during short
duration, necessitating the need for a maximum rate of hourly supply.
So, an adequate quantity of water must be available to meet the peak
demand. To meet all the fluctuations, the supply pipes, service reservoirs
and distribution pipes must be properly proportioned. The water is
supplied by pumping directly and the pumps and distribution system must
be designed to meet the peak demand. The effect of monthly variation
influences the design of storage reservoirs and the hourly variations
influences the design of pumps and service reservoirs. As the population
decreases, the fluctuation rate increases.

POPULATION FORECASTING
TECHNIQUE

POPULATION GROWTH
Population growth rate: 1.312% (2012 est.)
Definition: The average annual percent change in the population,
resulting from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of
migrants entering and leaving a country. The rate may be positive or
negative. The growth rate is a factor in determining how great a burden
would be imposed on a country by the changing needs of its people for
infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals, housing, roads), resources (e.g.,
food, water, electricity), and jobs. Rapid population growth can be seen as
threatening by neighboring countries.

In order to predict the future population as

corectly as possible, it is necessary to know
the factors responsible for changes in
population. They are:

BIRTH
DEATHS
MIGRATIONS

DEFINITIONS

ESTIMATE:

is an indirect measure of a present or past

condition that can be directly measured.
PROJECTION (OR PREDICTION):

are calculations of future conditions that would

exist as a result of adopting a set of underlying
assumptions.

FORECAST:
is a judgmental statement of what the analyst
believes to be the most likely future.

POPULATION OF INDIA -2011

HUMAN POPULATION

GROWTH CURVE

The population would probably follow the growth

curve characteristics of living things within
limited

space

or

with

limited

economic

opportunity. The curve is S-shaped is known as

logistic curve.

The represents early growth AB at an increasing

rate (i.e. geometric or log growth, dp/ dt P
and late growth DE at a decreasing rate (i.e. first
order curve dp/ dt (Ps - P )) as the saturation

value (Ps) is approached .

The transitional middle curve BD follows an

arithimetic increase(i.e. dp/ dt = constant].

POPULATION FORECASTING

Analysts that undertake population forecasting have a wide variety of method

available to them, all with a mix of strengths and weaknesses.
-Simple extrapolation

-Complex Ratio

-Complex extrapolation

-Cohort Survival

-Simple Ratio

-Cohort Component

The choice of projection method depends upon a number of factors.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE CHOICE OF

FORECASTING METHOD

Plausibility
Face Validity depends on Availability and Quality of Data
Resources includes Money, Personnel, Time
Forecast Accuracy
Model Complexity Ease of Application and Explanation
Needs of the Users includes Geographic Detail
Demographic Detail
Temporal Detail

Political Acceptability

FORECASTING ACCURACY
In theory, the most important criteria for a forecast is its level
of accuracy. We assume that a forecast that is off by only 2%
is much better than one that is off by 20%.
However, the likelihood of forecast accuracy serving as the
most important criteria in choosing a method depends on
local conditions.
For example, sometimes politics plays a very important role in
the choice of a method and, by extension, the result
generated by a forecast

POPULATION PROJECTION

POPULATION FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
DECREASING RATE METHOD
SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD

ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

This method is based on upon the assumption that the
population increases at a constant rate; i.e.. The rate of
change of population with time (i.e. dp/dt) is constant.
Applicable to old and large cities with no industrial
growth and reached a saturation or maximum
development.
This method yields lower results for rapidly growing
cities.
Pn = (P + n x)
Where , P= latest known population : Pn = prospective
population after n decades. x = average increase in
population per decade.

GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD

In this method, the per decade percentage increase or
percentage growth rate (r) is assumed to be constant, and the
increase is compounded over the existing population every
decade. This method is, therefore, also known as uniform
increase method. It can be expressed as
Pn = P [1+ (r/100)]^n
Where , r= Geometric mean percentage increase.
The basic difference between arithmetic and geometric
progression methods is: in former method no compounding is
done where as in latter method compounding is done in every
decade.
The computation in two methods are thus comparable to
simple and compound interest computations respectively.

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

In this method, per decade growth rate is not assumed
to be constant as in the arithimetic or geometric methods;
but is progressively increasing or decreasing, depending
upon whether the average of the incremental increases in
the past data is positive or negative.
The population for a future decade is by adding the mean
arithmetic increase ( say x )to the last known population
as in arithmetic increase method and to this is added the
average of the incremental increases y , once for the first
decade, twice for the second decade, thrice for the third
decade, and so on.
contd

The method thus, assumes that the growth rate in the first decade is
@(x+y), is in the second decade @(x+2y), and in the nth decade
@(x+ny).Thus the growth rate is assumed to be varying. It is
expressed as
Pn = P + n x + n(n+1)/2*y
This method will give end results, some where between the results
given by arithmetic increase method , and geometric increase
method, and is, thus, considered to be giving quite satisfactory
results.

The geometric progression method, since gives higher

values of forecasted population, evidently gives higher results
for developed cities which do not expand in future at
compound rates; although it may be suitable for new younger
cities expanding at faster rates.
For older cities arithmetic method may be better, although
incremental method is considered to be the best for any city,
whether old or new.

DECREASING RATE METHOD

Since the rate of increase in population goes on reducing, as the

cities reach towards saturation goes on reducing, as the cities reach
towards saturation, a method which makes use of the decrease in
the percentage increase, is many a times used and gives quite
rational results.
In this method, the average decrease in the percentage increase is
worked out, and is then subtracted from the latest percentage
increase for each successive decade.
This method is however, applicable only in cases, where the rate
of growth shows a downward trend.

SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD

In this method, a graph is plotted

from the available data ,
between time and population.

The curve is then smoothly extended up to the desired year.

This method, however, gives very approximate results, as the extension
of the curve is done by the intelligence of the designer.

 All the five method described as far are based on assumption

that factors and conditions which were responsible for
population increase in past will even continue in future also,
with same intensity. That is a vague assumptions and may or
may not be satisfied.
However they are less time consuming. They are also some
other advanced methods available for population forecasting
which includes:
1). COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD
2). MASTER PLAN METHOD
3). RATIO METHOD
4). LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD

COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD: based on assumption that city

under consideration may develop same as the selected similar cities developed
cities. It is based on logical background, precise and reliable results can be
obtained.

MASTER PLAN METHOD: the master plan prepared for a city is generally
such as to divide the city into various zones, and separate the residence,
commerce and industry from each other. The population densities is fixed .

RATIO METHOD OR APPORTIONMENT METHOD: In this method of

forecasting future population of a city or a town, the citys census population
record is expressed as the percentage of population of the whole country.

LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD: based on assumption that the population of a

city shall grow as per logistic curve under normal conditions.

THANK U