CCL 2011 Q3 Transcript

Carnival's CEO Discusses Q3 2011
Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Executives
David Bernstein - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer of
Carnival Plc and Senior Vice President of Carnival Plc
Micky M. Arison - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Executive Committee
Howard S. Frank - Vice Chairman, Chief Operating Officer and Member of Executive
Committee
Analysts
Harry Curtis - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division
Timothy A. Conder - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Ian Rennardson - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division
Richard Ellis Lyall - John W. Bristol & Co., Inc.
Jamie Rollo - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Richard Lyall
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
David Liebowitz - Horizon Asset Management, Inc.
Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Steven Kent - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Assia Georgieva - Infinity Research
Kevin Milota - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Janet Brashear - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Inc., Research Division
Jeffrey Hans
Carnival (CCL) Q3 2011 Earnings Call September 20, 2011 10:00 AM ET
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for standing by. And welcome to the Carnival
Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder,
this conference is recorded on Tuesday, September 20, 2011. It's now my pleasure to turn
the conference over to Howard Frank, Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer at Carnival
Corp. Please go ahead, sir.
Howard S. Frank
Thank you, Pam, and good morning, everyone or good afternoon, depending on where you
are. This is Howard Frank. I'm here with Micky Arison, our Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer; David Bernstein, our Senior VP of Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Beth
Roberts, our VP of Investor Relations. I will -- I'm going to turn the first part of the
commentary over to David Bernstein, who'll provide you color on the third quarter and our
cost outlook for the fourth quarter. David?
David Bernstein
Thank you, Howard. Before I begin, please note that as some of our remarks in this
conference call will be forward-looking, I will refer to you the cautionary statement in
today's press release. Also, all of my references to revenue and cost metrics will be in local
currency unless otherwise noted, as this is a much better indicator of business trends.
Our EPS for the third quarter was $1.69. The third quarter came in $0.07 above the
midpoint of our June guidance. The $0.07-per-share improvement was driven by both net
revenue yield and cost, as each were $0.05 better than expected. The total operational
improvement of $0.10 was partially offset by a $0.02 charge related to the sale of Costa
Marina, which leaves the fleet in November 2011, and $0.01 from fuel prices and currency
exchange rates combined.
The $0.05 net revenue yield improvement resulted from better-than-expected last-minute
pricing. In our June guidance, we slightly overestimated the negative impact from the
conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, commonly referred to as MENA, on our strong
summer booking season. However, we believe we slightly underestimated the impact of
MENA on the seasonally weaker fourth quarter. So only $0.02 of the $0.05 improvement in
net revenue yields for the third quarter flows through to the full year September guidance.
In total, for the back half of the year, yields are expected to be slightly better than our June
guidance.
On the cost side, a portion of the $0.05 improvement from June guidance was due to
timing, so only $0.03 of the $0.05 improvement in costs for the third quarter flows through
to the full year September guidance.
Now let's take a look at our third quarter operating results versus the prior year. Our
capacity increased 5%, with the majority of the increase coming from our European,
Australian and Asian brands, or as we call them, our EAA brands. Our EAA brands grew 7%,
while our North American brands grew 3%.
Our net revenue yields increased almost 3% in the third quarter, with similar increases in
both net ticket and net onboard and other yields. With respect to net ticket yield, the North
American brands were up almost 6% despite the negative impact from MENA on European
itineraries. The improvement was driven by higher yield in Alaska, Caribbean and Mexican
Riviera itineraries. Our EAA brands, which are primarily cruising in Europe during the third
quarter, were down 2%. The yield decline was primarily driven by the impact of MENA on
these itineraries.
In net onboard and other yields, we experienced over a 2% increase. The increase was also
driven by our North American brands, as our EAA brands were impacted from MENA
itinerary changes that resulted in lower shore excursion revenues and slightly lower
spending in other areas.
On the cost side, net cruise costs, excluding the Costa Marina charge and fuel per available
lower berth day, were up 2% versus the prior year. We continue to see inflationary
pressures in food cost, freight, crew travel and other hotel costs that were anticipated and
discussed on the last 2 conference calls. As a result of our ongoing efforts to reduce fuel
usage, our consumption per available lower berth day declined 4% this quarter, continuing
our multiyear savings trend. In total, this represents a 13% savings from 2007.
Fuel prices this quarter were 45% higher than last year, which cost us $0.23 per share.
Partially offsetting the increase in fuel price was the weaker dollar, which had a favorable
impact of $0.10 per share. In summary, the third quarter EPS improved over 4% to $1.69
per share.
Before turning to our 2011 outlook, I want to update you on our current stock repurchase
program. As we previously indicated, stock buybacks could be used opportunistically to
efficiently return cash to shareholders. In mid-August, we restarted our stock buyback
program. Since then, we repurchased 14.5 million shares at an average price of $31 for a
total of $445 million. At the present time, we have $343 million remaining on the existing
general stock repurchase authorization program. It should be noted that on a combined
basis, the recent share repurchases and our 2011 full year paid dividend represents 135%
of forecasted free cash flow for the year.
Now turning to the 2011 outlook for the full year. I'll skip net revenue yields as Howard will
discuss that shortly. On the cost side, for the full year net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are
forecasted to be up 1%, which is the same as our June guidance, excluding the charge
relating to the Costa Marina. At this point, I'll turn the call back over to Howard.
Howard S. Frank
Thank you, David. My comments this morning will focus on our revenue yield outlook for the
first half of 2012, since the fourth quarter of 2011 revenue picture is largely baked right
now. Later in my report, I will separately comment on fourth quarter revenue yields.
For the first half of 2012, fleet-wide capacity will increase approximately 4.6%. Pricing per
bookings taken to date for the first and second quarter are nicely higher than a year ago,
with occupancy flat in the first quarter and lower in the second quarter versus the same
quarters in 2011.
For the first half of 2012, North American brand pricing increases were stronger than EAA
pricing, but both markets show nicely higher pricing at this time. On a fleet-wide basis, our
bookings taken during the last 13 weeks for the first half of 2012 are higher year-over-year
at higher pricing. Booking volumes and pricing are higher for both North America and EAA
brands. While pricing during the earlier part of the 13-week period had been strong, in more
recent weeks we have seen a modest falloff in bookings and pricing. This began in August,
largely as a result of the debt ceiling political circus in Washington and the related meltdown
in the U.S. equity markets during the month.
In Europe, the sovereign debt issues and the related concerns about the strength of the
European banks contributed to the slowdown in EAA brand bookings. These issues, together
with related declines in consumer confidence in the various markets in which we operate,
seem to have contributed to the softened booking activity during this August and early
September period.
Although fleet-wide bookings during the last 6-week period covering the next 3 quarters
were not as strong as earlier in the quarter, on an absolute basis, volumes for the 6-week
period were higher year-over-year with pricing on these bookings slightly lower than a year
ago. So even during this difficult August and September period, bookings have held up quite
well, which is a testament to the resiliency of our cruise business, in that even in a weak
economic environment, the consumer will continue to book their vacations, especially the
value-based cruise vacations.
Given the high percentage of business already booked in quarter one of 2012, it does
appear that first quarter 2012 yields will be higher than a year ago. I will provide more
specific information on our booked business by quarter later in my comments.
For the full year, we are now guiding earnings to a range of $2.40 to $2.44 a share, or a
midpoint of $2.42. This is a slight change from previous guidance and results from currency
and fuel working against us by approximately $0.06 a share, a loss on the sale of a ship,
about $0.02 a share that David referred to. This $0.08, combining the $0.06 and the $0.02
to get the $0.08 earnings per share negative impact, is offset by improved revenue pricing
of a couple of pennies a share and reduced costs of $0.03 a share.
2012, we have 3 ships scheduled for delivery: the Costa Fascinosa in April; the AIDAmar in
May and the Carnival Breeze in May. Fleet-wide capacity is expected to increase by 4.5% in
2012, 3.5% for North America brands and 6% for EAA brands. By quarter, Q1 2012 capacity
is up 4.9%; second quarter of 2012 is up 4.2%; third and fourth quarter of 2012 are up
each by 4.4%.
Now some color on each of the next 3 quarters. Turning to this fourth quarter that we're in
right now, the fourth quarter of 2011, on a fleet-wide basis capacity is up 5.8%, 3.2% for
our North America brands and 10.10% for EAA brands. Local currency pricing on a fleetwide basis for the fourth quarter is higher year-over-year, with occupancies at a slightly
lower level than last year.
The North America brands, we have very little inventory left to sell at this point, but for EAA
brands, we still have some amount of inventory left to sell. This is primarily related to
Mediterranean cruise itineraries, which -- many of which had to be changed over the
summer as a result of the problems in the Middle East and North Africa, as we've told you in
the past.
North American brands are 42% in the Caribbean in the fourth quarter, down from 50% last
year; 14% in Europe versus 9% last year; and 10% in the Orient Pacific area, about the
same as last year. The balance is in various other itineraries. North American brand
occupancies in the fourth quarter are at approximately the same levels as last year. North
American brand pricing is nicely higher than a year ago, and booking volumes for North
America brands in the fourth quarter continues to be solid at higher year-over-year prices.
By the time the fourth quarter closes, we expect North American brand pricing to be nicely
higher.
EAA brands are 71% in Europe versus 64% last year, with the balance in various other
itineraries. EAA occupancies are lower than a year ago, primarily attributable to the changed
itineraries for our Med cruises. Although occupancies for Med cruises have caught up
significantly, they are still behind last year. Pricing for EAA brands itineraries is behind last
year, primarily attributable to the late booking of the Med cruises. By the time the quarter
ends, we expect local currency EAA pricing to be lower than a year ago.
On a fleet-wide basis for the fourth quarter, we are forecasting higher local currency
revenue yields in the 1% to 2% range, driven by the stronger pricing for the North
American brands, offset by the lower pricing for the EAA brands.
Now turning to first quarter of 2012. As I indicated, capacity is 4.9% higher than last year,
4.5% for North America brands, 5.7% for EAA brands. At the present time, fourth -- first
quarter occupancies on a fleet-wide basis are approximately flat year-over-year, with pricing
nicely higher. North American brands in the first quarter are 66% in the Caribbean,
approximately the same as last year, with the balance in various other itineraries.
The Caribbean pricing is nicely higher than a year ago on approximately the same
occupancies as last year. Pricing for all other itineraries taken together in the first quarter is
also higher than a year ago, also on approximately the same occupancies.
EAA brands are 22% in the Caribbean versus 20% a year ago; 19% in Europe, down from
33% last year; 18% in South America, up slightly from 16% last year; with the balance in
other itineraries. For all EAA itineraries taken together, local currency pricing is higher than a
year ago at approximately the same year-over-year occupancies.
With a good percentage of our bookings for the first quarter done, as I previously
mentioned, we are forecasting that revenue yield for the quarter will be higher than a year
ago.
Now turning to the second quarter of 2012. Fleet-wide capacity is up 4.2%, 2.9% for North
America brands and 6.3% for EAA brands. At the present time, on a fleet-wide basis, local
currency pricing is nicely higher than a year ago, with occupancies running behind last year.
While the second quarter booking picture is encouraging from a pricing standpoint, it's still
early in the booking cycle, so I caution not to read too much into the second quarter
booking picture at this time.
North American brands are 56% in the Caribbean, approximately the same levels as last
year, with the balance in various other itineraries. Caribbean pricing is nicely higher than a
year ago at slightly lower occupancies. All other itineraries taken together are also nicely
higher than a year ago, also at lower occupancies.
EAA brands are 53% in Europe, down from 55% last year, with the balance in various other
markets. EAA brand pricing for European cruises is higher than last year on slightly lower
occupancies. Pricing for all other EAA brand itineraries taken together is also higher than a
year ago at lower occupancies.
Although occupancies in the second quarter are lower than a year ago, they are not
significantly behind. And talking to our brand executives, there is a general view that
because of the continuing stream of negative economic news and the related decline -- and
more recently the related decline in consumer confidence, consumers are delaying their
decisions to take their cruise vacations, with the result that the booking curve for 2012 has
come closer in.
So that's sort of the status of the second quarter, where we're seeing the closer in booking
curve taking effect. And with that, I will -- Pam, I will turn it back to you, and we'll start to
take some questions. Thank you.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Sir, our first question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix from
Barclays Capital.
So, Howard, you have given us some good color as usual, and you've also given us some
caution on just the recent booking picture, given everything that's going on in the world,
starting in August. A few things. One is, do you have -- what is your confidence that your
outlook for the first quarter remains stable? I know that you said it's largely booked, but
those last-minute bookings always kind of affect things. And then for the second quarter, do
you -- what is your optimism that you can end with pricing and occupancy up?
Howard S. Frank
On the first quarter, I think -- and I think we saw this in the fourth -- on the third quarter of
2011, our late bookings seem to be holding up quite well versus year-ago pricing, so I think
we feel fairly confident on where we stand on Q1. Where it exactly comes in from a yield
improvement standpoint, it's -- I don't think we want to venture right now. But we are
nicely ahead right now from a pricing standpoint. So even with a little bit of a downdraft, we
should be just fine in the first quarter. I think less so confidence in the second quarter
simply because we just -- we don't have as large a percentage of our business booked in
the second quarter as we have in the first quarter, naturally. And we have seen, started to
see some evidence of the booking curve coming in. I think consumers are delaying their
vacation decisions. It seems clear, any major spend decisions, because of lower consumer
confidence, seems to be people are pulling back on it. But at the end of the day and talking
to our brand managers, they seem to be pretty confident that the business will be there at
the end of the day, and so I think they're more confidence in holding price.
Micky M. Arison
Felicia, one of the things you have to keep in mind is that when we talk year-over-year, this
time last year bookings were very, very strong. We didn't feel the impact of MENA and all
that stuff until starting in January, first quarter of last year. So the fact that we're okay
versus last year's pattern now, if we don't have a repeat of the MENA situation or similar or
a tsunami in Japan and all that other stuff, then the comparisons should get easier as we
get into the second quarter. So our level of confidence, all things being equal, if there isn't
another major geopolitical event should be pretty good.
Right, okay. And then, Howard, can you just tell us -- you've talked -- you said a few times
that the booking curve has come in. Can you just quantify that? And then I'm wondering if
someone could just tell us how the company is deployed in the Med for this summer '12
season.
Howard S. Frank
Yes. No, I mean it's come in only a small amount so far. Remember, when I talk about
booking curve, I'm talking about 9 different brands, so -- and when I give you that data, I'm
looking at 9 different brands and their booking curves. Some are better than others but we
start to see some evidence, especially to some degree in the U.S. markets, a little bit in the
European markets and the U.K. markets.
Micky M. Arison
It's hard to tell because of the MENA impact, but it appeared to have started to move in a
little bit in the spring, so it's not recent. It's not the last 6 weeks. I mean, it started to move
in after the MENA impact. And of course, when you got that many itineraries moving, it
becomes really hard to see what's exactly happening. But it's moved a little bit in and it
seems to have started sometime in the spring.
David Bernstein
As to your second question, I don't have the Med broken out from Europe, but I do have
Europe and the Med combined. It's about 49%, 50% for 2012. It was very virtually the
same in total for 2011; it was 49%.
Beth Roberts
Full year '12 Med is 19%. Europe...
David Bernstein
No, she said summer third quarter.
Beth Roberts
For '12?
David Bernstein
Yes.
Beth Roberts
It's 25% for the Med and 26% for Europe without the Med.
Micky M. Arison
I would say that we have modified, especially Costa which was most impacted by the MENA
impact and Ibero, and to some degree, AIDA. They've already -- particularly Costa, have
already modified a lot of itineraries to mitigate any possible future problems next year.
That's not to say that we don't have any of those countries on our itineraries. We do have
some, but we've scaled back quite a bit and have less -- quite a bit less than we had this
time last year.
Howard S. Frank
And I think it's important to keep in mind that we know what we're confronting, going into
our European itineraries in the Med this coming year, at this point in time. So what -- I think
our ability to react quicker now rather than as we reacted later in the spring of last year will
give us the ability to mitigate the effects, if there are any effects this year.
Micky M. Arison
If we do have to react, we'd have to react with a lot fewer itineraries impacted.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Steve Kent from Goldman Sachs.
Two questions. First, and maybe Micky could handle this one. On the free cash flow story, it
looks to me like you're going to generate about $2 billion in free cash flow next year. You've
kept supply in check. So could you talk about how the board is thinking about a dividend
increase? And the reason why I think it's so important at this point is that it would signal
both that you're returning cash to shareholders in a very efficient way besides the share
buyback, and that you're going to keep your supply growth in check. And then second,
Howard, can you just define for me, just because I haven't heard it in a while, what "nicely"
really means? Has that definition changed over time? So is now "nicely" up 1% to 2%
versus a few years ago, where it was up 3% to 4%? If you could just give us a general
sense of what "nicely" means, that might be helpful.
Howard S. Frank
Maybe Micky answer "nicely" too.
Micky M. Arison
I don't use "nicely."
David Bernstein
You guys can decide that. Steve, I'll go through your question on the cash flow and the
dividends. Essentially, we have been very open about our dividend policy. We've talked
about a 30% to 40% payout on the regular quarterly dividend. Right now, we're at $1 a
share. I mean, you can do the math and you can see where the numbers are. We are
committed to the 2 to 3 ships a year, and we are -- the board is -- we've talked to the
board, and we are committed to returning all of the excess, all the free cash flow over and
above the CapEx, to shareholders. As you can see, this year, we returned 135% already
with the stock repurchases. So I think the commitment for the reduced capacity is there.
We've talked about the 2 to 3 ships, and there's not -- for '12 and '13, those numbers are
locked in, and you know what's on order for the future years at this point.
Howard S. Frank
Okay, Steve, I'm going to try "nicely" on you. The way I -- when I look at the numbers, to
me, when we talk about "flattish," I usually mean flat between plus or minus 1%. When I
say "up," it means better than 1%. But I mean not just 1.2% though. And when I say
"nicely up," it means well north of just being up. So without quantifying it for you -- I'm
getting a lot of applause here. They've all asked me the same question...
Yes, I think you are on the conference call too.
Howard S. Frank
But it is -- it means it's a stronger pricing improvement than you would -- than just than
saying that it's just up. I hope that clarifies it for you, Steve....
So Howard, if you ever say like, holy -- I'm sorry, if you ever say like, "Holy cow, things are
really good," is that like up 10%? I mean...
Howard S. Frank
That's not my answer [indiscernible]...
Okay. That was helpful and, David, I appreciate your answer.
Micky M. Arison
By the way, I'd reiterate David's answer. You asked me the question, but I would -- the key
underlying item in that question, I think was, will we maintain discipline on the newbuilding
side? And the answer to that is yes, we will.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley of UBS.
I've got 2 questions. One is, I just wanted to circle back to the idea of the ports that you'd
be revisiting in 2012 in the Middle East and North Africa. I don't know if you quantified -this past year, it was originally, I think, 7% to 8% of your itineraries. But for 2012 at this
point, what percent of your itineraries would be touching those -- any of those ports again?
Howard S. Frank
Why don't we do this? Why don't we -- we'll see if we can pull that together for you because
I don't think -- they have it, but they don't have it in their books for the moment.
David Bernstein
It was about -- it was 9.5% of this year's itineraries were impacted. And I believe, if I
remember correctly, we did analysis. We reduced our exposure by about 12%. So there was
a reduction in the number of itineraries that went to the affected regions. Costa replaced
some of -- replaced Tunisia with some islands off the coast of Italy. They took ships out of
Egypt and went to the Greek Isles and the Holy Land. So there were a number of changes
that resulted in that 12% reduction.
Micky M. Arison
I could say Costa basically reworked their entire 2012 Med program and rereleased their
program a couple of weeks ago. So it's not that easy to say, because rather than have
itineraries overlapping, they kind of took a "fresh piece of paper" approach and have a lot of
new programs that they're feeling very, very excited about. When in reality, when they have
to react last-minute, they really couldn't -- they couldn't look at it in the same way. So I
think they've taken a fresh approach. They've basically done the kind of itineraries that their
nationality of passenger will really enjoy. And those nationalities were most impacted,
Italian, French, Spanish, by the MENA issues. So I don't think we can quantify at this point.
Maybe Beth?
Beth Roberts
It looks like last -- the total impact that we had in 2011 in the Middle East and North African
region was roughly 10% and is expected to be 8.5% in 2012.
Howard S. Frank
But the 8.5% will be in -- at ports of call that were not as challenged, let's say, as they were
last year, like Egypt and Tunisia.
Beth Roberts
Yes, Costa traded Egypt for the Greek Isles and the Holy Land cruises. They traded Tunisia
for islands off the coast of Italy. In total, their Med deployment is flat. So it's left trips to
Egypt or touching Tunisia. And the incremental capacity was deployed away from the Med to
the winter Caribbean, South America, Northern Europe, the Far East and Asia, so they
dispersed it everywhere else outside the Med.
Howard S. Frank
Now, they're still going down to Dubai and selling out of -- in places like that, those cruises
are doing okay.
Micky M. Arison
Yes, they still have cruises out of Dubai and Sharm el-Sheikh, but less capacity. They've cut
their capacity.
Okay, great. Now that's helpful. And then the second question is, can you just remind us for
your ships, what are sort of outstanding, just kind of which have financing in place and
which would still be in the process in terms of anything that was guaranteed export credit
facilities in the contracts, just in light of a lot of changes going on with European banks, just
kind of...
David Bernstein
Sure, yes. We've got 10 ships on order. The only one that does not have financing
associated with it is the Costa Favolosa for 2012 -- Fascinosa, sorry, for 2012. The other 9,
7 are already signed and done, and we're working on the last 2. So we will have export
credits for the other 9. We just haven't finished the last 2 with the AIDA ships that we
ordered in Germany.
Beth Roberts
But the contracts were subject to financing.
David Bernstein
Yes.
Okay, great. And so -- and I'm sorry, you said for the Fascinosa for next year, that the
financing is done for that.
David Bernstein
No. No. That's the only ship.
Micky M. Arison
It's the 1 out of 9 that we didn't lock in export credit. It's complicated, but export credit for
an Italian shipyard, for Italian flagship is not -- it's complicated. So we passed on that one
because it's not an export.
Howard S. Frank
Not an export.
Micky M. Arison
You can't get an export credit if you're not exporting.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Janet Brashear of Sanford C.
Bernstein.
I wanted to ask a little bit about discounting for 2012. Some travel agents have said that
they feel that the discounting for all of 2012 feels stronger than they might have expected.
As you look at your pricing, I know you said earlier that the brand managers are trying to
hold price, believing that consumer confidence may still rebound. Are you feeling like the
discounting environment is normal for this time as pre-bookings for 2012?
Howard S. Frank
I think if -- there are a lot of sales going on and programs going on. Most of that, Janet,
would be for more closer in business as opposed -- and some of it is not dissimilar to what
we've done in prior years. So when the travel agents see it, I'm not sure they see it in the
same way we see it in terms of our yield management systems and what we need to do to
get it done. In many cases, we do go out with different kinds of programs, but -- and they
may -- we may do them in a little bit different way than we've done in past years. So they
don't have the ability to really understand from the apples-to-apples comparisons that we
work with in terms of our pricing. But yes, it is out there. It is out there, sure. It's always
out there, though.
Yes, okay. A quick question too. You had talked about a fuel cost protection program. I won't
say hedging because I think you were doing something different which was just protecting
at the extreme cost swing level. Is that progressing?
David Bernstein
Yes. We're working on -- off of the administrative back office that we put in place, in the
systems, controls and procedures. But we haven't started doing anything yet, and that's at
some point in the near future and when we start, we'll let everybody know.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis from Nomura
Securities.
A couple of quick questions. The first is you've mentioned that in 2011, you'll be returning
about 145% of your expected free cash flow to shareholders. To what degree would you be
willing to use your balance sheet over a longer-term period to repurchase stock?
Howard S. Frank
I mean, generally speaking, we've talked about returning free cash flow, I think in this
particular year where there was an opportunity to buy back stock at a quite attractive price,
and we had the program already in place to do it. We decided to go ahead and do it, and to
running a little bit faster than free cash flow for 2011. But I think over the long haul, I think
that the thinking is that debt levels would remain relatively constant and we'd use free cash
flow to buy back stock and/or increase dividends.
And if you could just give us -- or remind us, rather, the range of net debt to EBITDA that
you feel comfortable with.
David Bernstein
What we're really looking at in terms of -- we look at it more in terms of ratings. And what
we're looking at is -- an A- credit rating is what we're generally targeting, as opposed to a
net debt to EBITDA. Although if you look at the S&P, A- will equate to somewhere between 2
and 2.5x, roughly speaking.
Okay, that's great. And then just a bigger picture question. And it's really a philosophical
industry question. The airline industry over the past few years has taken 10% to 15% of
their capacity out, and they've enjoyed a relatively strong increase in pricing power. And
next year, the cruise industry is still going to see about a 4% increase in capacity. And I'm
just wondering if you've thought about the positive impact that you might see on pricing if
the industry itself reduced capacity. And by the same token, what would be the argument
against it?
Howard S. Frank
The challenge to reduce capacity, although we do -- over time, we do try to sell off some of
our older tonnage if we can get reasonable prizes for them. But it's unlike the airline
industry. It's not easy to get -- to move out your older ships. Also, newer ships give us so
much better economies of scale that we're inclined to order newer ships, larger ships that
give us the scale benefits and returns that we can't get on the older tonnage. But over time,
we will move out over time. Will we ever get to a flat or down capacity year-over-year from
a cruise industry standpoint? I don't know. I mean, I don't -- we still see huge potential to
grow our business in certain markets, and I think when we order ships today, we're ordering
it for those markets where we believe we can continue to grow our capacity at good profit
improvement and improved return on invested capital. So it is a much more targeted
approach. There could come a time when we stop ordering ships. And for certain markets
we've done that, but not for other markets. So I think it is a much targeted approach, if that
answers your questions, Harry.
Operator
We're going to continue on. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Conder, Wells
Fargo Securities.
Howard, could you give us a little bit more detailed color on how things have trended on a
regional booking basis, particularly for European-sourced passengers since that August
period? I guess for the Northern European or western itineraries looking into the first half of
next year versus the Southern European itineraries.
Howard S. Frank
I don't -- to be honest with you, Tim, I don't have that information. All I looked at it was
from the parts of Europe...
Micky M. Arison
The European, you're talking for next summer? Next summer?
Yes, Micky, yes.
Micky M. Arison
It's way too early for places like Italy, France and Spain. I mean, Costa just issued their
revised brochure 2 weeks ago, and they just started taking bookings. So it's way too early
for those countries to be commenting on next year.
Howard S. Frank
And Northern Europe tends to be a much shorter season, starting later and ending earlier,
so it's -- they're not comparable between Europe and -- Northern Europe and the Med. Med
will start to go out a little bit earlier.

Okay. So I guess then the root of the question is, you haven't seen any major shifts since
prior to the beginning of August in the patterns of bookings for Northern Europeans versus
Southern Europeans.
Howard S. Frank
I haven't looked at it from that standpoint, to be honest with you. I just -- I'm just looking
-- it's tough enough to take 9 different businesses, pull it all together and come up with an
answer directionally that makes sense. But to start to analyze it itinerary drive by itinerary,
by business by business and to give it to you, it wouldn't make a lot of sense and it would
take a long time to do that. And it's just not possible to try to take all the information, pull it
together and do it in a way that gives you proper and good direction in terms of how the
business overall is going.
Micky M. Arison
I would say that for the European brands, clearly they've had very strong last-minute
bookings, which is a combination of things. I think it's economy but I think it's also the fact,
because of MENA, there was more availability last minute than there were in prior years
because of the -- like all the itinerary changes. And they filled, so -- and when you look at
the bottom line for the third quarter, they were down 2 points, which considering everything
that happened this year, that's not a terrible result.
Okay. No, a very fair answer. And then what -- at this point, as you see the world and based
on what the brand managers are telling you, what are you looking at as far as in FY '12, the
recovery out of what was triggered through the tsunami impact and the earthquakes in
Asia? And then relative to -- are you looking for any recovery from the MENA area in
particular? And then I guess the other part would be, you cited the U.K. as being a little
tepid if I interpreted your remarks correctly. How are you looking at that year-over-year
from -- as you see the world today and what the brand managers are flowing up?
Howard S. Frank
Well, what the brand managers are telling me is really more anecdotal based on what's
happened in the last 4 or 6 weeks or so, so I wouldn't want to give you an overall sense of
what 2012 looks like. I do think it's too early. We are all over now in Europe and starting our
meetings with our brand managers on reviewing 2012 budgets. Later on in September, early
October, we'll be doing the same with our U.S. brands. And so I'm always a little bit
uncomfortable right now, given the fact that it's September, talking too much about 2012
because I don't think we feel comfortable doing it yet. I mean, there are a lot of very
positive things out there. I talked about the yields, the positive pricing in Q1 and Q2, which
we think is -- we're pleased with. But I think given all the noise that we're hearing in the
U.S. and Europe about economic challenges, I'd like to wait until December to give you
more concrete and more concrete guidance on 2012, when we have a little bit more
confidence in how it's going to shape up. And so I hesitate to give you anything right now.
Micky M. Arison
Even in December, it's going to be -- we're going to do it, but it's going to be tricky because
again, we're going to be looking at comparisons that didn't have any of the MENA impact
yet. And again, at December last year, we were looking at a very, very strong year. And
things started to come apart in the middle of January. So when we're sitting and looking at
year-over-year comparisons, we're going to have to try to pattern in what's happened
[indiscernible]. So it's going to make those predictions a little bit trickier than in the past.
David Bernstein
The one thing that will definitely be a positive is 2011 had the short-term disruption of all
those itinerary changes and all those cancellations, and hopefully we won't -- as Micky
mentioned before, we won't see that again in 2012 and that would be a year-over-year
positive.
And to your point, I think, Micky, earlier you mentioned that given all that and you had
strong bookings at this time last year, you're already -- from what you're seeing right now,
it's still fairly, fairly solid given that you're going to get those strong comps at this point in
time.
Micky M. Arison
Yes, I think the point Howard made was well taken. We were booking very strongly into the
spring and early summer. Again, part of that was the fact that we had all the disruptions, so
we had a lot more capacity available close in. But part of it was obvious, demand especially
for the peak holiday season. But despite a slowdown in August and early September, we
were up year-over-year. And that's a good sign, but there's no question that people are
tightening their belt a little bit and making decisions a little bit later, based -- because of
everything that's going on and what they're watching on television every day.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Kevin Milota of JPMorgan.
Kevin Milota - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Just was wondering if you could give some updated thoughts on where you are from a fuel
hedging perspective. Understandably, you guys don't do that now, but there's been some
commentary in the past that you were thinking about more of a fuel insurance going
forward. And then also from a MENA perspective, not to beat a dead horse here, but was
wondering, is it possible to quantify what sort of drag pricing is going to have next year? Or
maybe you could speak to it in terms of, how long do you think it will take to get back to
pre-turmoil levels in terms of pricing for those itineraries?
Howard S. Frank
You want to go ahead on the answer?
David Bernstein
Yes. As far as the fuel hedging, I mean, we've talked about our philosophy a number of
times on fuel hedging. And the kind of program we're looking at is more of fuel insurance.
And the example I think I've used historically could be something like a 0 cost collar with a
wide collar, so that if fuel did spike up, we have some protection. Those are the types of
things we're looking at doing, and I mentioned before we're putting together the
administrative back office to begin to do that at some point in the future.
Howard S. Frank
Yes, Kevin, on the MENA pricing for 2012 versus 2011, I think that certainly, we're hopeful
that we'll see some nice improvement in pricing versus 2011, given the lateness of the
changes in the itinerary due to disruption, not only to the MENA cruises, but to all of our
Med cruises resulting from the last-minute changes and the rebooking patterns that we had
to go through. How much of that will be -- I think it's still too early to say. Will we recapture
everything we lost? I don't think so. I don't think we're even -- we're thinking in those
terms. But we do think we'll start to see some improvement, but it may take us a couple of
years to get back to the levels of pricing that we enjoyed pre-MENA.
David Bernstein
Just to put it in perspective, I mean, we did say that the MENA impact this year in 2011 was
about a 1.5 points of yield, which just kind of gives you a total perspective of the magnitude
of the issue.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian from Citigroup.
Jeffrey Hans
It's Jeff Hans on behalf of Greg. Can you talk a little bit about some of the tactical
promotions or discounts out there today? And is that any different than sort of what you've
seen during past periods of volatile bookings? Or has it been a bit more aggressive?
Micky M. Arison
We've discounted sale and it's part of a marketing strategy. Again, if we were talking for 1
or 2 brands, it would be much easier to answer your question. Every one of our brands has
different kind of promotions, different tactics, different sales. They have them virtually every
year, not necessarily at the exact same time. They all watch their booking curves. They all
have trend lines and when they get below the trend line, they may activate a discount
program, where if they get above it, they'll pull it back and so on. It's a lot of moving pieces
and it doesn't -- other than the fact that you've got all this noise going on because of what's
going on in Washington and what's going on in Wall Street, and also in Europe obviously
with the financial crisis in Europe, all that noise is just making it really difficult to tell. But
like we've said a number of times in the call today, our volumes are still up year-over-year.
So it does not feel like any different than -- it definitely doesn't feel like '08, where we saw
significant drop off. It doesn't feel anything like that.
Howard S. Frank
No. It's nothing like that. You did see, when you look sort of from the springtime until now,
an ebb and flow to bookings. In some weeks they're very strong and other weeks are not as
strong, and at the end of the month, we kind of look at the overall and so far, it's been
positive. And remember, we can move business. So you're not quite sure if you have a
strong booking month if it's because we're moving business at lower prices or -- and if we
pull back and our business -- and our booking volumes are lower, it's because we may have
pulled pricing up. And you're talking about 8 or 10, 8 or 9 different yield management
systems. And each business approaches yield management in different ways. So it is really
difficult to talk about a particular program of moving business and how it's affecting that
particular business. Looking at it from -- we look at it from a global standpoint.
Jeffrey Hans
Right. Yes, I didn't mean as much you guys. I meant just from what you're seeing out there,
given the volatility over the last 4 to 6 weeks. And I mean, there's been periods of volatility
obviously over the past 12-plus months. But just wondering if you've seen other players out
there discounting a bit more aggressively than other periods of volatility. Or has it been just
a sort of normal course of business?
Howard S. Frank
You do see tactical pricing, and every once in a while, one of our -- I'll have a conversation
or Micky will or David will with a brand manager and saying, "Our competitors are doing this
at this ridiculous price, in this particular market." But it's usually for a particular cruise that
they need to fill. And we -- and sometimes we do the same thing. So you can't really go too
much by the anecdotal information.
Micky M. Arison
I'd like to say that beyond the MENA itineraries, which continue to be last-minute fill
because there were so many changes, beyond that, I don't think it's any different than what
we saw last year.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Assia Georgieva from Infinity
Research.
I had a quick question on Q4. It seemed that implied yield guidance had previously been in
the 2.4% range, and now you're offering us 1% to 2%. Is this primarily due to the slower
August and September booking volumes? Or is it primarily because of Costa or a
combination of the 2?
David Bernstein
It really is primarily as a result of the seasonal-ization of the MENA impact. As I mentioned
in my notes, we had overestimated the impact on the third quarter and underestimated the
negative impact of MENA on the fourth quarter. So when everything came in and we started
to look at it, while the total impact of MENA, we were very close and we felt good about
that, the yield difference is driven by those MENA itineraries. We had expected MENA to be
roughly 2% in the third quarter. It turned out more like a 1.5%. And in the fourth quarter,
we had expected it to be more like 0.5% -- 1.5% and it turned out to be more than 2%. So
it's just a forecasting estimate on our part and a flip-flop between the quarters.
Micky M. Arison
Can I just say that when you consider that we changed 300 itineraries just before we gave
you the second quarter guidance, the fact that we're basically right on our guidance for the
second half of the year, I think, is pretty remarkable. Our folks did a great job of being able
to forecast this far. Now the fact that it's a little bit higher in one quarter, a little bit lower in
another quarter, I mean, come on. You're moving 300 itineraries. It's pretty good.
Howard S. Frank
Now I think the thing to keep in mind is that for the second half of the year, we actually
came in yield wide a little bit -- just slightly better...
David Bernstein
Slightly better.
Howard S. Frank
Expected [ph], yes. But it was a flip-flop between Q3 and Q4. That's what you're seeing.
Okay, okay. And, Micky, I think we all appreciate how difficult it is and especially for the
Costa brand, what they have had to go through. By the same measure, is it possible that
close in bookings might be helpful in Q4, not only in The Bahamas, in the short Caribbean,
but also in Europe, if you still have inventory available to sell more than in past years?
Micky M. Arison
We're pretty well along now so -- but if last-minute bookings are stronger than anticipated,
then we'll do a little bit better. But we're pretty well booked for the quarter, so we...
Beth Roberts
Typically, the third quarter is the stronger summer season. It has more opportunity for
upside on close in pricing than with the shoulder periods.
Howard S. Frank
Given stronger demand in Q3, you typically can get some upside. Q4 is a little bit more
challenging. I think North America, as I mentioned, is substantially done right now. And
really, what we need to do is some backfill still on the MENA sailings, and that's really -that's all that's significantly left. So could it come in better than we anticipate? Sure, but not
-- there's not that much room, no.
Operator
We're going to continue on. Our next question comes from the line of Richard Lyall from
John W. Bristol & Co.
I've got a couple of questions. Are you implicitly saying that the booking curve on the North
American business has moved out?
Micky M. Arison
No. No, What we're saying is the booking curve on all our business has moved in a little bit.
Okay. But given the strength in pricing and the fact that you're already booked, it's not
saying that North America has moved out.
Howard S. Frank
No.
Micky M. Arison
No. No, the opposite, it's moved in a little bit as well.
Richard Lyall
Okay. Second question is historically, when there's been uncertainty coming into a new year,
you've been aggressive on pricing. And this time around, you're holding off on the pricing
card and saying, "We're going to stick with what we got," and play the card later in the year
if you need to. Why the different philosophy?
Howard S. Frank
Well, Rick, let me just say this, that I don't think there's any one philosophy here. There are
a multitude of philosophies on yield management, and each brand manager approaches it -can approach it very differently, and what we're giving you is a blend of all that information.
So in some cases, I think some people -- some of our brands will go in with a stronger
pricing early on and hope to maintain it and move whatever inventory is left at the end at
somewhat lower pricing. Other brands will go in at -- early at lower pricing to begin with,
expect to fill and then move the volumes as they need to in order to fill up, and so they're
just different approaches each one will do, and what we're giving you is a blend of all of
them.
Micky M. Arison
I don't think there's been any changes in the philosophy. It's just yield management folks
recognizing a movement in of the booking curve will retract the line of what they expect and
want. And so they will react a little bit later than they would have in a prior year with the
booking curve further out. Did that make sense?
Beth Roberts
There's more uncertainty.
Sure.
Micky M. Arison
It's a little bit riskier, but you're betting that the booking curve has moved in. And there's a
lot of good anecdotal evidence to prove that it has, and so you might as well play that curve
rather than react too early.
Richard Lyall
No, I understand. I just think it's interesting you're doing things differently this time. Last
quick question is, I think -- I thought Pier Foschi said that he had not changed itineraries for
2012 beyond first quarter of 2012. So what occasioned the changes in itineraries? Did you
decide that the situation could be more negative longer and you needed to deploy capacity
differently?
Micky M. Arison
No. You're reacting to a conversation I know we had in July, correct?
No, I've had a conversation with him at dinner.
Micky M. Arison
In July?
David Bernstein
In July?
Whenever that was.
Micky M. Arison
In July.
Richard Lyall
At the analyst meeting. Whenever it was.
Micky M. Arison
This is now September. This is now September. I just wanted to clarify that for everybody
who wasn't at dinner. The reality is, since July, we've had a number of conversations, and
the question became a mitigation of risk. And so they basically went back to the drawing
board, took a clean piece of paper and said, "Okay, what is the best itineraries we can
operate for our major nationalities and mitigate the MENA risk?" And that's what they did.
And they come up with a whole new set of itineraries, some very, very innovative ones, I
think. It's some great ideas. We're very hopeful that they'll be very successful, but they had
to go back to the drawing board, reprint a brand new brochure for next spring and summer.
They've done that. It's now in the marketplace, but it's only been in the marketplace about
2 weeks, so it will take some time to see how all that flies. But we're very glad that they did
that. We think they've made a lot of good decisions and we'll see what happens 6 months
from now.
Beth Roberts
The deployment changes were announced September 1.
Micky M. Arison
And today is with the brochure...
Howard S. Frank
Yes.
David Bernstein
About [ph]...
Micky M. Arison
To the [ph] brochure on that.
Operator
Continuing on, our next question comes from the line of Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley.
Just a first question on costs. I know you haven't done your budgets yet for next year, but if
we do see a bigger-than-expected downturn, how much flexibility do you have to take
further cost out? I know you took quite a big chunk out in '09, but do you think -- I mean,
do you have a sort of backup plan if things are quite tough?
David Bernstein
Jamie, I mean, we are always looking at ways to reduce cost. We're not a business where
we have a lot of fat in the business, so when there's an economic downturn we can change
our model and all of a sudden take all that fat. We run very lean and we're constantly
looking for ways to reduce cost. So we're hoping we can offset the inflation next year. We've
told everybody our long-term cost guidance is flat to half of inflation. Hopefully, we'll be
closer to flat than half of inflation as we work through all the cost savings.
Okay. And just the other question was relating to a comment I think one that you made on
maybe selling some more ships in the future, some of the older ships. I think you've got 7
or 8 ships that are 20 years or more in age. I'm just wondering, first, does that have a
meaningful impact on group net cruise costs, just given these ships are significantly less
efficient than modern ships? And also, the loss you made on selling the Marina, I know it's
small, but you didn't normally make book value losses when you sell ships, so are you
happy with the book value of your fleet today?
David Bernstein
Yes, in terms of the book value of our fleet, we're very happy. You're picking on one ship.
But I did look at the last 8 ship sales. It turns out that in the last 8 ship sales, we had 4
gains and 4 losses. The total cumulative net for the 8 was a positive, I think it was $45
million. So on these sales to have it turn out to be that way, we felt very comfortable with
our book value overall. As far as the cost impact of selling these older ships, I think the last
time I looked, those 7 ships represented about 3% of our overall capacity because
remember, they tend -- the older ships tend to be smaller, so even if we sold all 7 of them, I
doubt you would see a dramatic change in our net cruise cost because it's just 3% to the
total.
Operator
Gentlemen, we have actually 2 more questions. Our next question comes from David
Leibowitz from Horizon Kinetics.
A few unrelated items. Nothing was said about Alaska and China. Could you update us on
those 2 for 2012?
Micky M. Arison
Alaska was very, very good in...
Howard S. Frank
2012.
Micky M. Arison
And I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be as good in '12. It's way too early, again, to
comment about third quarter of next year, but we're very happy with the way it turned out
in '11. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be similar in '12.
David Bernstein
And we did -- Princess did announce one more ship for Alaska for 2012, so...
Beth Roberts
Yes, traffic in Alaska is up 11% next year.
Howard S. Frank
And then early signs for Alaska for the second quarter -- we have a few sailings in the
second quarter -- are so far positive, but I don't think you could take that too seriously right
now. The summer is really what drives it. On China, I think that it was a rough -- this
certainly was a rough year for China, given the problems in Japan and also the dislocation of
itineraries and moving things around and cancellations and rebookings and so on. So it was
a tough year. But we do think that 2012 will be better. It's getting off to a better start but
still very, very early for the China booking season. But we certainly are hopeful that we'll
show some nice improvement in China in 2012.
Second question. You have 9 brands. You're adding 2 to 3 ships a year. How many of your
brand managers would like to have more capacity sooner?
Howard S. Frank
I think 9 of them would. I mean, all of them want to have more capacity. I don't think
there's one out there that doesn't believe that they can add ships and increase their
profitability and their returns. But we want to be -- we've given them their hurdle rates to
do that and until they reach their hurdle rates, they're not going to get those allocation -that net allocation of capital.
Micky M. Arison
The reality is all but 3 of our brands have newbuildings coming. So I mean, they're all
focusing on...
Howard S. Frank
They're all in the pipeline.
Micky M. Arison
Yes, they're all in the pipeline and have newbuilding coming.
You referred to hurdle rates. Of the 9 brands, how many of them are meeting their hurdle
rates as we speak?
Howard S. Frank
Well, I think a good number of them are and some are not. And that's about as much as
you're going to get from me on that.
Micky M. Arison
What tends to happen is if you look at their newest ships, they tend to meet the hurdle
rates. And those that have older, smaller ships, they tend to bring them down.
David Bernstein
Keep in mind that the newer ships that we're building are twice the size of the average ship
in the fleet. And also, the newer ships are considerably more fuel efficient than the average
ship in the fleet, so the returns for those ships tend to be quite a bit higher.

And the last question. Several of your brands have discontinued brochures and tell
everybody to just go onto the computer, or at least this is what travel agents are telling me.
What is the dollar cost savings there?
Micky M. Arison
I have no idea.
Howard S. Frank
All right, David, I mean, it's probably less about cost savings. It's more about efficiency and
getting the travel agents and consumers to be more efficient and driving more electronic
bookings and that sort of thing. It is the future and we are moving along with that. We're
trying to move that along.
David Bernstein
And by the way, David, that's occurred over a period of years, that it wasn't a one-year
phenomenon.
My question would be, for a first-time passenger who has never sailed, do they really get
the same understanding of the cruise, the same possessiveness and in looking forward to
taking the sailing when they don't have a brochure?
Micky M. Arison
If they have a brochure -- I mean, if they have a computer. If they don't have a computer, I
guess they won't. I don't know how many of our passengers don't own computers but...
In fact, you can arguably get a much better picture on the computer with all of the videos
and other things that we have to offer that you would never find in the brochure, so.
Operator
Our final question comes from the line of Ian Rennardson from Jefferies.
Ian Rennardson - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division
I think in the past, you've said that at any one time, you are between 55% and 75% booked
for the next quarter. Where are you in quarter one? And how does that compare to maybe
this time last year?
David Bernstein
It is 55% to 75% booked and we are within that range for quarter one. And I think Howard
had mentioned we were flattish with...
Howard S. Frank
Last year.
David Bernstein
Flattish with last year, correct.
Howard S. Frank
Okay. All right. Okay, gentlemen. I think that will -- that can conclude it.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you all for
your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Thank you once again...
Howard S. Frank
Thanks, everybody.
Operator
Have a wonderful day...
Howard S. Frank
Thanks, everybody. Have a great day. Bye-bye.
Operator
Thank you, sir.
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CCL 2011 Q3 Transcript

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Carnival's CEO Discusses Q3 2011

Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Timothy A. Conder - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Kevin Milota - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

David Liebowitz - Horizon Asset Management, Inc.

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