March 31, 2014

A Sharekhan commodity research newsletter

Gold: near strong support

KST

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4

Weekly close: $1,293.50

Gold in the last few months had fallen down in a threewave manner. It reached near lower end of the mediumterm falling channel as well as near the previous low of
$1,180. At that level the bulls rushed in to provide support
to the yellow metal. Thus, gold formed a double-bottom
pattern-a bullish pattern. Consequently, the yellow metal
moved up sharply. It broke out from the medium-term
falling channel and retraced till the 78.6% retracement
mark. The rise is also unfolding in a channelised manner.
Recently gold has done a minor degree correction and is
trading near the crucial Fibonacci retracement level. From
here the bulls can take the charge once again. Unless the
level of $1,264 (the 61.8% retracement level) breaks on a
closing basis gold can move up to test the high of $1,392.
Trend

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Up

$1,264.0

$1,288/1,264

Resistances
$1,337/1,392

GOLD [CASH], Parabolic SAR

1460
1450
1440
1430
1420
1410
1400

1392

0.0%

1390
1380
1370
1360
1350
1340
1330
1320
1310
1300
1290

50.0%

1280
1270
61.8%

1260

1264

1250
1240
1230
1220
1210
1200
1190

100.0%

1180
1170
1160
19

26

2
9
16
September

23

30
7
Oc tober

14

21

28

4
11
November

18

25

2
9
16
December

23

30

6
2014

13

20

27

3
10
February

17

24

3
10
March

17

24

31
7
April

14

21

28

5
May

Target
$1,392.0

Silver: at a crucial juncture

KST

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6

Weekly close: $19.770

Silver was falling in a medium-term falling channel since
the last few months. It found support near the lower
channel line. The bulls provided support to the white metal
near the channel line. As a result silver broke out from the
upper channel line. It reached its initial target of $21.98
ie the 50% retracement mark. From there the commodity
is forming a minor degree correction, which can be used
as a buying opportunity. The correction has retraced 78.6%
of the previous rise. Unless the medium-term rising trend
line ie $19.00 breaks on a closing basis, silver is expected
to head up to test the high of $22.16.
Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

$19.00

$19.54/19.00

$20.66/21.76

$22.16

SILVER [CASH], Parabolic SAR

23.0

22.5

22.16
0 .0%

22.0

21.5

21.0

20.5

20.0

7 8.6%

19.5

19.0

19.00

1 00.0%

18.5

9
ember

16

23

30

6
2014

13

20

27

3
10
February

17

24

3
Marc h

10

17

24

31
April

14

21

28

5
May

For Private Circulation only

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Mumbai 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. BSE-Cash-INB011073351 ; F&O-INF011073351 ; NSE INB/
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; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Dos & Donts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C
on www.sharekhan.com before investing.

Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

Copper: bearish potential intact

10

KST

Weekly close: $3.0415

-5
-10
HG COPPER CONTINUOUS 25000 LBS [COMEX]

Copper is in a downtrend from the medium-term

perspective. The fall is breaking up into lower degree
waves. The weekly momentum indicator has started a new
cycle on the downside from the equilibrium line. As a result
the price has fallen below multiple supports. However,
the red metal can attempt a minor degree bounce till
$3.00-$3.05. Our sense is that it is retesting the trend
line. Unless the level of $3.10 is crossed on a closing basis
the overall bearish potential remains intact. The
subsequent target on the downside is $2.73 ie the lower
end of the medium-term falling channel.
Trend

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

Down

$3.100

$2.87/2.73

$3.10/3.32

$2.730

4.05
4.00
3.95
3.90
3.85
3.80
3.75
3.70
3.65
3.60
3.55
3.50
3.45
3.40
3.35
3.30
3.25
3.20

3 .1 0

3.15
3.10
3.05
3.00
2.95
2.90
2.85
2.80
2.75
2 .7 3

2.70
2.65
2.60
2012 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

J un

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oc t

Nov

Dec

2013 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

J ul

Aug

Sep

Oc t

Nov

Dec

2014

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

J ul

Aug

Sep

Crude oil: Bears Warming up

KST
4
3

Weekly close: $101.67

2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4

NYMEX crude oil recently formed a sharp pull-back. It

retraced 61.8% of the previous fall. We expect crude oil
to face resistance at this crucial Fibonacci retracement
level ($101.25). The momentum indicator has completed
its pullback cycle to the equilibrium line. Overall, crude
oil is expected to test the previous low of $91.24. The
reversal can be placed at $105.22 on a closing basis.

-5
LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX], Parabolic SAR

106.5
106.0
105.5
105.0
104.5
104.0
103.5
103.0
102.5
102.0
101.5
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
98.0
97.5
97.0
96.5
96.0
95.5
95.0
94.5

105.22

1 00.0%

6 1.8%

0 .0 %

94.0
93.5
93.0
92.5
92.0
91.5

91.25

91.0
90.5
90.0

Trend
Down

Trend
Reversal

Supports

$105.22

$97.3/91.24

Resistances

89.5
89.0

Target

88.5
9
ecember

For Private Circulation only

$102.4/103

16

23

30

6
2014

13

21

27

3
10
February

18

24

3
Marc h

10

17

24

31
April

14

21

28

5
May

$91.24

Bravehearts Best
(Commodities)

March 31, 2014

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Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

Jeera: finds support

70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20

Relativ e Strength Index

Weekly close: Rs10,065

JEERA QUINTAL - 1 MONTH

1 61 .8 %

The adjoining is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera April 2014

contract. Jeera has been in a medium-term downtrend.
Last week we observed jeera found support near the 9800
levels and has closed positively for the week. On the lower
degree time frame ie on the daily charts it is still trading
below the 20 and 40-daily moving averages. The daily
Bollinger Bands are contracting, which indicates that we
might witness sideways consolidation price actions in the
coming trading sessions. If the low of 9785 is broken on
the downside then we can see a further sell-off in the
agri-commodity. The weekly momentum indicator has a
negative crossover. We expect jeera to trade weak and
target on the downside is placed at 9255, which is the
161.8% extension level of the previous wave. Traders can
go short on jeera when the low of 9785 is broken on the
downside. The stop-loss should be placed at 10,832, which
is the 40-day exponential moving average.
Trend

Trend
Reversal

Down

Rs10,832

Supports
Rs9,785/
Rs9,255

Resistances

Target

Rs10,310/
Rs10,832

Rs9,255

19500
19000
18500
18000
17500
17000

1 00 .0 %

16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
0 .0 %

12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000

9500
9 25 5

9000

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov Dec

2012

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oc t Nov Dec

2013

Soya bean: stuck in a range

Volume
Mar

Apr

May J un

J ul

Aug

Sep Oc t

Nov

Dec 2014

Mar

Apr

May

J un

Jul

Aug

Sep

KST
15
10

Weekly close: Rs4,314

5
0
-5
-10

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean

April contract. We can observe that for the past one month
soya bean has been trading in a range. Last week the agri
commodity took support near the lower end of the range
and closed in positive. We expect this range to break on
the upside. The weekly momentum indicator has a positive
cross-over and it is trading along the weekly upper Bollinger
Band, which is expanding. It indicates that the positive
momentum in the agri commodity can continue on the
upside. Traders should hold on to the long positions with a
stop loss placed at Rs4,163, which is the lower end of the
range. The targets on the upside are placed at Rs4,500,
which is the highest ever closing for soya bean.

Trend
Up

Trend
Reversal

Supports

Resistances

Target

Rs4,163

Rs4,163/
Rs4,022

Rs4,345/
Rs4,500

Rs4,500

For Private Circulation only

Bravehearts Best
(Commodities)

-15

4600

SOYBEAN QUINTAL - 1 MONTH, Parabolic SAR

4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800

June

July

August

September

March 31, 2014

October

November

December

2014

Volume
February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

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Sharekhan

Bravehearts Best (Commodities)

For Private Circulation only

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March
31, 2014
and sell
securities
referred to herein.
to time solicit Best
from, or4 perform
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banking, or other services for, any company mentioned. Any
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only We may from time Bravehearts
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comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect
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