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Learning Objectives:
1.
Describe the components of the balance of payments;
2.
Identify the different types of imbalance within the balance of payments;
3.
Explain the causes of imbalances within the balance of payments;
4.
Identify the policy measures for correcting imbalance within the balance of
payments.
During a given year, Jamaicans like nationals of other countries, engage in a vast number
and variety of transactions with residents of other countries. They import, export, engage
in service transactions, receive or send gifts abroad, obtain net income from overseas,
receive loans or make payments on loans received and undertake or receive foreign
investment.
All these transactions together comprise the international trade and payments of
Jamaica. However, to analyze and evaluate these transactions they must be classified and
aggregated to make a Balance of Payments (BOP) statement.
The Balance of Payments is a summary of all economic
transactions between domestic and foreign residents during
a given period of time, usually one year.
The main purpose of keeping these records is to inform government authorities of the
overall international economic position of the country in order to assist them in arriving
at decisions on monetary and fiscal policy, on the one hand, and trade and payments
policy on the other. -Balance of payments statistics are therefore helpful to government
authorities charged with maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Principles and Concepts
Balance of payments accounting is governed by a set of principles and conventions that
ensures the systematic and coherent recording of transactions, which are consistent
across countries and over time. These principles and concepts will be discussed and
where necessary practical examples will be used to explain the concepts. They are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
Exports will appear as a credit entry because they give rise to receipts from abroad and
the receipt, which represents a claim on non-residents, appears as a debit entry in the
financial account.
Conversely, imports of foreign goods and services will appear as debits in the balance of
payments as these transactions give rise to payments to the rest of the world. The
corresponding payments, which resulted from the increase in liabilities to foreigners, are
recorded as credit entries.
To illustrate, let us assume Jamaica imports US$150 million worth of oil. In the balance
of payments of Jamaica (see table 2) the oil import is recorded as a debit entry, as it gives
rise to a payment by a resident to a non-resident. The corresponding payment, which
resulted from the increase in Jamaica's liabilities to foreigners, is recorded as a credit
entry.
Example 2
Let us now assume that Jamaica borrows US$100 million dollars from the World Bank
and the proceeds of the loans are deposited at the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). Table 3 shows
the entries that would be made in Jamaica's balance of payments:
Table 3
The loan, which gives rise to a receipt is recorded in the balance of payments of Jamaica
as a credit entry and the actual proceeds from the loans - the foreign currency receipt- is
recorded as a debit entry.
If all the principles of the BOP manual are adhered to then the sum of all the credit
entries should be identical to the sum of all the debit entries and the net balance of all
entries in the BOP statement, including changes in the reserves of the Central Bank,
should be zero. In practice, however, when all the actual entries are summed the resulting
balance will invariably show a net credit or a net debit. That balance is the result of
incomplete coverage of transactions, use of non-uniform prices and inconsistent times of
recording and conversion practices.
The custom in BOP accounting is to show the net balance of all the actual transactions as
"net errors and omissions". This entry is equal to the difference in the credit and debit
entries, but with the sign reversed. Thus if the balance of the recorded components is a
credit, the item for net errors and omissions would be shown as a debit of equal value and
vice versa.
The custom in BOP accounting is to show the net balance of all the actual transactions as
"net errors and omissions". This entry is equal to the difference in the credit and debit
entries, but with the sign reversed. Thus if the balance of the recorded components is a
credit, the item for net errors and omissions would be shown as a debit of equal value and
vice versa.
Relatively large and persistent net errors and omissions are cause for concern as they are
indicative of statistical error, major discrepancies or improperly recorded information.
2.
As far as individuals are concerned, the concept of residence is based mainly on the
principle of "centre of interest". It is generally accepted that if a person resides for more
than a year in a given economy, he or she is considered to be a resident of that economy.
So if a Jamaican resident leaves Jamaica and returns to his/her household within a year,
the individual continues to be a resident even if he or she makes frequent trips outside
Jamaica. The individual's centre of economic interest remains in the economy in which
the household is resident. In the same vein, tourists are residents of the country from
which they come rather than the country they are visiting.
However, there are exceptional circumstances whereby individuals are regarded as
residents, for BOP purposes, even though they reside outside of their country for more
than a year.
a.
b.
3.
a)
b)
Time of Recording
In the double entry system of the balance of payment it is important that both
entries relating to a transaction are recorded at the same time. However, while this
is the ideal data recording methodology, it is not always possible, thus resulting in
errors and omissions" in the BOP. An entry is recorded in the balance of payments
when a transaction involves a change of ownership or where a change of ownership
is not obvious the transaction is recorded when the parties enter it in their
accounts.
4.
The most numerous and important transactions in the balance of payments are
classified as exchanges. This refers to transactions in which economic values are
provided or received in exchange for other economic values. These values consist of
real resources (goods, services and income) and financial items.
a)
b)
The BOP is divided into two main categories according to the broad nature of the
transactions. These categories are:
1. The Current Account
2. The Capital and Financial Account
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT:The current account includes all transactions (excluding those
recorded in the capital & financial account) between resident and non-resident entities
that that involve economic value.
This account is sub-divided into:
a. Goods
b. Services
c. Net Property Income
Abroad)
d. Current transfers
a.
Goods:
b.
Services:
i.
ii.
Transportation covers all transportation services (sea, air and land), bought
and sold, that involve the carriage of passengers, movement of goods
(freight), charter of carriers with crew and other supporting services.
iii.
c.
Communication services
Construction services
Insurance services
Financial services
Income:
d.
Current
Transfers:
Now that we have covered the four basic components, we need to look at the mathematical
equation that allows us to determine whether the current account is in deficit or surplus
(whether it has more credit or debit). This will help us understand where any
discrepancies may stem from, and how resources may be restructured in order to allow for
a better functioning economy. The formula is:
Current Account Balance = X M + NY + NCT.
where:
2.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
The Reserves represent the foreign exchange which the country has available for
financing an imbalance of payments with the rest of the world. An increase in the
reserves of a country (a debit) indicates that there was a surplus from the
remanding non-reserve transactions, indicating an overall surplus for the balance
of payments and vice versa.
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A distinction is made between gross foreign reserves and net foreign reserves. In
the case of Jamaica, gross foreign reserves represent the official holdings of foreign
assets, by the Central Bank and the Central Government, while gross foreign
liabilities are principally liabilities of the Central Bank to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). The difference between the gross foreign assets and
liabilities gives the net international reserve position of the country. This can be
disaggregated into the net international reserves of the Central Bank and the
external assets of the Central Government.
A country's monetary authority normally should not permit reserve holdings to
decrease below the level considered minimally appropriate or adequate for the
country. A common measure of the adequacy of reserve holdings is the ratio
of reserve assets to import of goods and services. This ratio is sometimes
expressed as the number of weeks worth of imports of goods and services that
could be paid for from the of gross reserve assets. The international benchmark for
reserve adequacy is 12 weeks of imports of goods and services.
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transactions with the rest of the world. Like all statistical surveys, there are
problems such as nonresponse and incomplete coverage for which estimates have
to be done. Since the repeal of the Exchange Control Act, the annual survey has
been one of the main sources of data.
2.
3.
In instances where there is an overall balance of payments deficit, the amount of foreign
exchange held by the country is depleted. The reverse is also true, as where there is a
balance of payments surplus, the foreign exchange held by the country increases.
The Central Bank or monetary authority of a country keeps amounts of foreign exchange
in its vaults for official purposes. As such, these foreign currency holdings are called
official foreign exchange reserves. For instance, if global disturbances due to natural
disasters or other circumstances cause exports to be significantly curtailed, then the
Central Bank would be able to use its foreign exchange reserves to cover imports and
other essential foreign payments such as foreign debt servicing.
As indicator of how long the country could sustain its current level of imports using its
foreign exchange reserves, the import cover ratio is calculated. This simply divides the
official foreign exchange reserves balance by the level of monthly imports.
In addition to this role, foreign exchange reserves can also be used to manipulate the
exchange rate. This will be discussed in the next topic: Exchange Rates.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
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The Balance of Payments account tells an important story of the overall level of
participation of a country in the international environment. In the complex world of
international trade and capital movements, there is a systematic relationship where
countries are intertwined by their dependence on each other for supplies, markets for the
various goods and services produced and international finance. The health of this
relationship needs to be maintained in order for it to successfully continue into the long
term. This is because, if a country would like to continue to import foreign goods on a
long term basis, then it needs to keep earning sufficient foreign exchange to finance such
imports. If not, the current account would be in deficit and imports would have to be
financed by borrowing foreign exchange. Many developing countries face the dilemma of
large current account deficits over extended periods of time. This typically leads them to
depend on international lending institutions such as the International Monetary Fund for
assistance to finance such deficits. Such borrowing, however, is usually accompanied by
severe economic conditionality or strict measures such as major cut-backs on government
spending which aggravate poverty.
CAUSES OF A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
The current account deficit occurs when imports of goods and services, investment
income outflows and outward transfers exceed the exports of goods, services, investment
income inflows and inward transfers. Some of the causes of a current account deficit are:
1.
2.
An overvalued exchange rate. If the exchange rate is set at a level which makes
imports cheap relative to domestically produced goods and services, then imports
would rise. Furthermore, an overvalued exchange rate would also make exportable
goods seem expensive to foreigners which would lead to a decline in exports. Both
of these combined would result in a current account deficit.
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3.
4.
Huge capital inflows. If a country benefits from large capital inflows which result
in a surplus in the capital account, it is likely that the current account in future
years would be negatively impacted. This is because foreign investments generate
investment income to the foreign investors which are outflows in the current
account.
PROBLEMS WITH A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
A deficit represents a net withdrawal from the circular flow of income by the foreign trade
sector. As such, aggregate expenditure within the domestic economy falls, leading to a
decline in income via the multiplier process. This may also result in the creation of a
deflationary gap where cyclical unemployment exists. In addition, a current account
deficit caused by huge importation is usually financed by borrowing from overseas. This
gives rise to significant interest payments which leads to an exacerbating if the deficit.
Such interest payments may also be a burden on GNP since it is an outflow of net
property income from abroad.
MEASURES USED TO ELIMINATE A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
There are a host of different measures which a government can use to eliminate a current
account deficit. These include:
1. Expenditure Reducing Measures
2. Expenditure Switching Measures
3. Export Subsidies
4. Enhanced Competitiveness
1. Expenditure Reducing Measures:
These are deflationary or contractionary measures that decrease national income.
This is because imports are said to be induced, i.e., rise as income increases and
likewise fall as income decreases. Exports on the other hand are said to be
autonomous to the level of national income. Hence, as income decreases, imports
fall while exports remain unchanged causing the deficit to be eliminated. This is
shown by a movement along the import function in the diagram (Figure 1) from
point A to point B. As a result of the decrease in the level of imports, the current
account improves, possibly resulting in an overall balance.
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3.
Export Subsidies:
An export subsidy is a payment to a domestic producer who exports a good abroad.
This can also be used independently or in conjunction with other policies for the
purpose of eliminating a current account deficit. Because of the subsidizing of
domestic exports, producers are able to reduce production cost which improves the
competitiveness of their output in the international markets. This should therefore
serve to boost export earnings and thereby eliminate the current account deficit.
The first two measures, expenditure reducing and expenditure switching, may be regarded
as complements rather than competing measures. This is because the government might
initially undertake expenditure reducing policies in order to create spare capacity in the
economy. Afterwards, it would implement expenditure switching policies which would
divert demand away from imports to domestic output. Since there is spare capacity in the
economy, domestic firms would be able to increase output and meet the increase in
domestic demand.
CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES
If one country has a current account surplus, then its trading partner would inevitably
have a current deficit. China currently has the largest current account surplus in the
world and its main trading partner, the USA, has the largest deficit in the world. As a
result, current account surpluses can result in retaliation where the deficit country cuts
back on importation possibly leading to a deficit in the surplus country. If both countries
had neither deficits nor surpluses then no such feedback effects would occur.
METHODS OF ELIMINATING A CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
1.
2.
3.
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exports. As a consequence, outflows in the current account rise, with inflows held
constant. Eventually this leads to an elimination of the surplus. This is shown in
Figure 2 where the level of export is constant at $40 million. If income is at Y R
imports are $10 million and there is a surplus of $30 million. As income increases
from YR to YS there is an expansion in imports as shown by the movement along the
import schedule from R to S. As a result imports rise to $40 million and the
current account surplus is eliminated.
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