The Poisson

distribution

5.3

Introduction
In this block we introduce a probability model which can be used when the outcome of an experiment is a random variable taking on positive integer values and where the only information
available is a measurement of its average value. This has widespread applications in analysing
trac ow, in fault prediction on electric cables, in the prediction of randomly occurring accidents etc.

Prerequisites
Before starting this Block you should . . .

understand the concepts of probability and

probability distributions.

Learning Outcomes

Learning Style

After completing this Block you should be able To achieve what is expected of you . . .
to . . .
recognise and use the formula for probabilities calculated from the Poisson model

allocate sucient study time

use the recurrence relation to generate a

succession of probabilities

briey revise the prerequisite material

use the Poisson model to obtain approximate values for binomial probabilities

attempt every guided exercise and most

of the other exercises

1. The Poisson distribution

Suppose that it has been observed that, on average, 180 cars per hour pass a specied point
on a particular road in the morning rush hour. Due to impending road works it is estimated
that congestion will occur closer to the city centre if more than 5 cars pass the point in any one
minute. What is the probability of this latter event occurring?
We cannot use the binomial model here since there is no xed number of cars which will pass
the point and we have no estimate of p.
We must use a dierent probability model - the Poisson distribution - to handle situations
where the only information is an average rate. If the occurrences of an event are relatively
rare, we may assume that the number of occurrences in any small interval (of time or space as
appropriate) is independent of the number of occurrences in any other small interval. Under
these assumptions the Poisson model can be developed. (We omit the derivation).
Key Point
The Poisson Probabilities
If X is the random variable
number of occurrences in a given interval
for which the average rate of occurrences is then, according to the Poisson model, the probability of r occurrences in that interval is given by
P (X = r) = e

r
r!

Now do this exercise

Using the Poisson distribution write down the formulae for P (X = 0), P (X = 1), P (X =
2), P (X = 6), noting that 0! = 1.
Answer
We have calculated P (X = 0) to P (X = 5) when = 2 and presented the results to 4d.p. in
Table 1.
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
P (X = r) 0.1353 0.2707 0.2707 0.1804 0.0902 0.0361
Table 1
Notice how the values for P (X = r) increase and then decrease relatively rapidly (due to the
decreasing exponential term e ). In this example two of the probabilities are equal and this
will always be the case when is an integer. We need not calculate each probability directly.
We can use the following relations (which can be checked from the formulae for P (X = r)):

P (X = 0) , P (X = 2) = P (X = 1)
P (X = 3) = P (X = 2) , etc.
1
2
3
In general, for ease of calculation we use the recurrence relationship
P (X = 1) =

P (X = r) =

P (X = r 1) for r 1.
r

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

Now do this exercise

Returning to the car example, referred to at the beginning of this section, let X be the
random variable number of cars arriving in any minute . Calculate the probability that
more than 5 cars arrive in one minute.
First we convert the information on the average rate (cars per hour) to obtain a value for (cars
per minute). Then we calculate P (X = 0) to P (X = 5) and nally the required probability.
This is best done by noting that,
P (more than 5 cars in one minute) = 1 P (5 cars or less arrive in one minute)
Thus
P (X > 5) = 1 P (X 5)
= 1 P (X = 0) P (X = 1) P (X = 2) P (X = 3) P (X = 4) P (X = 5)
Each probability can be calculated by the recurrence relation above, starting from P (X = 0).
Calculate the individual probabilities to 5 d.p. and the nal number to 4 d.p.
Answer

Relation to the binomial distribution

It can be shown that the Poisson distribution may be obtained from the binomial distribution
by taking a particular limit. When the number of trials n in the binomial model is increased
without bound and p (the probability of a success on an individual trial) tends to zero in such
a way that np remains at a value (= ) say then the binomial model becomes more like the
Poisson model introduced here. We shall see later that the Poisson model can then be used as
a convenient way of approximating the probabilities arising in the binomial model.
Note that if X is a random variable whose probabilities are given by the Poisson model then,
because of its relation to the binomial distribution (in which E(X) = np = and V (X) =
npq = (1 p), we nd:
E(X) =
and
V (X) =

Clearly, then, the standard deviation is .

2. Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution

We have already noted that the Poisson model is obtained by taking the special limit (p 0,
n ) of the binomial distribution and putting = np.
Remember that if X is a random variable following a binomial distribution then
E(X) = np and V (X) = npq.
If p is quite small then q  1 and npq  np. In some problems for which the binomial model is
appropriate, the calculation of the (binomial) probabilities can be tedious and inaccurate. Since
V (X)  E(X) it is possible to use a Poisson model to generate probabilities approximately equal
to their binomial counterparts. The decision is either to use an accurate model with tedious (and
probably inaccurate) calculations or to use an approximate model with more easily-calculated
probabilities which will be approximations only. We cannot give a hard-and-fast rule as to how
3

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5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

small p should be for the Poisson approximation to be reasonable; we can simply say the smaller
the better so long as np remains of a sensible size.
As an example, suppose mass-produced items are packed in boxes of 1000. It is believed that
1 item in 2000 on average is substandard. What is the probability that a box contains more
than 2 defectives?
1
The correct model is the binomial distribution with n = 1000, p = 2000
(and q = 1999
).
2000
Now do this exercise
Using the binomial distribution write down P (X = 0), P (X = 1) and calculate P (more
than 2 defectives).
Hint: dont evaluate the nal probability until you have a compact expression for it.
Answer
Now do this exercise
Now choose a suitable value for in order to use a Poisson model to approximate the
probabilities.
Answer
Now do this exercise
Now recalculate the probability that there are more than 2 defectives using the Poisson
distribution with = 12 .
Answer
We have obtained the same answer to 4 d.p., as the exact binomial calculation, essentially
because p was so small. We shall not always be so lucky.

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

More exercises for you to try

1. Large sheets of metal have faults in random positions but on average have 1 fault
per 10m2 .
What is the probability that a sheet 5m8m will have at most one fault.
2. If 250 litres of water are known to be polluted with 106 bacteria what is the probability that a sample of 1cc of the water contains no bacteria?
3. Suppose vehicles arrive at a signalised road intersection at an average rate of 360
per hour and the cycle of the trac light is set at 40 seconds. In what percentage
of cycles will the number of vehicles arriving be (a) exactly 5, (b) less than 5? If,
after the lights change to green, there is time to clear only 5 vehicles before the
signal changes to red again, what is the probability that waiting vehicles are not
cleared in one cycle?
4. Previous results indicate that 1 in 1000 transistors are defective on average
(a) Find the probability that there are 4 defective transistors in a batch of 2000.
(b) What is the largest number, N , of transistors that can be put in a box so that
the probability of no defectives is at least 1/2.
5. A manufacturer sells a certain article in batches of 5000. By agreement with a
customer the following method of inspection is adopted: A sample of 100 items
is drawn at random from each batch and inspected. If the sample contains 4 or
fewer defective items, then the batch is accepted by the customer. If more than 4
defectives are found, every item in the batch is inspected. If inspection costs are
75p per hundred articles, and the manufacturer normally produces 2% of defective
articles, nd the average inspection costs per batch.
Answer

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

End of Block 5.3

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

0
1

P (X = 1) = e = e
= e e
0!
1
1!
2
2
6
6

= e
=
e
P (X = 2) = e
P (X = 6) = e
2!
2
6!
720
P (X = 0) = e

Back to the theory

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

 = 3 cars/minute.
We present the results in a table. First, P (X = 0) = e3
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sum
P (X = r) 0.04979 0.149361 0.22404 0.22404 0.168031 0.10082 0.91608
Then P (more than 5) = 1 0.91608 = 0.08392 = 0.0839 (4 d.p).
Back to the theory

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

1000
1999
P (X = 0) =
2000

999 


999
1999
1
1 1999
P (X = 1) = 1000

=
2000
2000
2 2000

P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) =

1999
2000

999 

1999 1
+
2000 2


=

1999
2000

999

2999
 0.9098 (4d.p.)
2000

Hence P (more than 2 defectives)  1 0.9098 = 0.0902.

Back to the theory

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

 = np = 1000

1
1
=
2000
2

Back to the theory

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

10

1 1
P (X = 1) = e 2
2
3 1

P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = e 2 = 0.9098 (4 d.p.)
2
Hence P (more than 2 defectives)  1 0.9098 = 0.0902.
P (X = 0) = e 2 ,
1

Back to the theory

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5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

1. Poisson Process. In a sheet size 40m2 we expect 4 facults

P (X = r) = r e /r!

=4

P (X 1) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = e4 + 4e4 = 0.0916

2. In 1cc we expect 4 bacteria(= 106 /250000)

=4

P (X = 0) = e4 = 0.0183

3. In 40 seconds we expect 4 vehicles

=4

(a) P (exactly 5) = 5 e /5! = 0.15629 i.e. in 15.6% of cycles



2 3 4

4
+
+
1+ +
(b) P (less than 5) = e
2!
3!
4!


32 32
= e4 1 + 4 + 8 +
+
= 0.6288
3
3
Vehicles will not be cleared if more than 5 are waiting.
P (greater than 5) = 1 P (exactly 5) P (less than 5)
= 1 0.15629 0.6288 = 0.2148
4. (a) Poisson approximation to Binomial
= np = 2000.

1
=2
1000

P (X = 4) = 4 e /4! = 16e2 /24 = 0.09022

(b) = N p = N/1000;

P (X = 0) =

0 e
= e = eN/1000
0!

eN/1000 = 0.5

N = 693.147

Engineering Mathematics: Open Learning Unit Level 1

5.3: Applied Probability Distribution

N
= ln(0.5)
1000

choose N = 693 or less.

12

5. P (defective) = 0.02. Poisson approx. to Binomial = np = 100(0.02) = 2

P (4 or fewer defectives in sample of 100)
= P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) + P (X = 4)
= e2 + 2e2 +
Inspection costs

22 2 23 2 24 2
e + e + e = 0.947347
2
3!
4!

Cost c
75
75 50
P (X = c) 0.947347 0.0526
E(Cost) = 75(0.947347) + 75 50(0.0526) = 268.5p

Back to the theory

13

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5.3: Applied Probability Distribution