Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

Interviews Conducted:
January 18-21, 2016

Questions 1-7 and 13 are for release after 9:00 A.M. ET Sunday, January 24, 2016.
Questions 8-12 are held for future release.

IOWA
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers January 18-21, 2016 among a
random state sample of 801 likely Iowa caucus-goers. Respondents were screened to identify
likely caucus-goers. Results for the 378 likely Republican caucus-goers have a margin of error
of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Landline (602) and cellphone (199) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file
of registered Iowa voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply means
that phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions across
the state of Iowa. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.
An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.
A dash (-) represents a value of zero.
Some results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

1.

How likely is it that you will attend one of the Iowa caucuses scheduled for February-will you definitely attend, probably attend, probably not attend, or definitely not attend?
(IF DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY) Will you attend the Democratic or Republican
caucus?
-----Democrat---------Republican-----

18-21 Jan 16
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
7-10 Dec 15
2.

TOTAL
100%

Definitely
61

Probably
39

TOTAL
100

Definitely
54

Probably
46

N/A
100%

N/A
52

N/A
48

100
100

59
51

41
49

How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested,
very interested, somewhat interested or not at all interested?
-----Interested---------Not Interested----Some- Not
(Dont
TOTAL Extremely Very TOTAL what at all know)
18-21 Jan16
Likely Dem caucus-goers
83%
49
34
16
16
*
*
Likely GOP caucus-goers
93%
57
36
8
7
1
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
Likely GOP caucus-goers
91%
56
35
9
8
1
*

[Q3-7 IF REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN Q1, N=378]

3.
Im going to read a list of candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If the caucus
were held today, which one of the following would be your first choice for president?[IF
NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
4-7 Jan 16
7-10 Dec 15
18-21 Jan 16
N=378
N=504
N=450
Donald Trump
34%
23%
26%
Ted Cruz
23
27
28
Marco Rubio
12
15
13
Ben Carson
7
9
10
Rand Paul
6
5
5
Chris Christie
4
4
2
Jeb Bush
4
7
5
John Kasich
2
1
1
Mike Huckabee
2
2
1
Rick Santorum
2
1
*
Carly Fiorina
1
1
2
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
N/A
N/A
*
George Pataki
N/A
N/A
1
(Other)
1
*
1
(Uncommitted)
*
1
1
(Dont know)
2
2
3

[SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW IF DONT KNOW IN Q3]

4.
Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else? [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
Certain to support
May change mind
(Dont know)
18-21 Jan 16
63%
33
4

[IF UNCOMMITTED OR NOT SURE IN FIRST CHOICE QUESTION, THEN SKIP

AND CODE AS NO FIRST CHOICE]
5.
And who would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to
decide today, which one would you choose?]
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT
ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3]
Second choice
Without Cruz Without Trump
First choice
Donald Trump
34%
14%
43%
N/A
Ted Cruz
23
22
N/A
36%
Marco Rubio
12
15
17
17
Ben Carson
7
8
9
10
Rand Paul
6
3
7
7
Jeb Bush
4
5
5
5
Chris Christie
4
3
4
6
Mike Huckabee
2
5
4
3
John Kasich
2
1
2
2
Rick Santorum
2
1
2
2
Carly Fiorina
1
4
2
1
Jim Gilmore
*
(Other)
1
1
1
1
(Uncommitted)
*
5
*
3
(No first choice)
N/A
2
2
2
(Dont know)
2
11
2
5
6.

Are there any Republican candidates you would refuse to vote for against the Democrat
in November? [ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. ACCEPT MULTIPLE
RESPONSES. PROBE UNTIL NOT PRODUCTIVE.] Are there any others you
would refuse to support?
18-21 Jan 16
N=378
(Trump)
20%
(Bush)
14
(Cruz)
11
(Rubio)
8
(Paul)
7
(Carson)
5
(Christie)
5
(Fiorina)
5
(Huckabee)
5
(Kasich)
5
(Santorum)
5
(Gilmore)
4
(I would support any of
48
them/None/No one)
(Don't know)
10

7.

Which one of the following candidate qualities will matter most in deciding which
candidate to support for the Republican nomination? That the candidate:
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
18-21 Jan 16
N=378
Has true conservative values
27%
Is willing to tell it like it is
24
Is a strong leader
23
Can win in November
9
Has the right experience
7
(All/Mixed)
10
(None/Other)
1
(Dont know)
*
For reference: Which one of the following candidate qualities will matter most in deciding which
candidate to support for the Republican nomination? That the candidate: [RANDOMIZE 1-5]
4-7 Jan 2016
7-10 Dec 15
N=504
N=450
Is honest and trustworthy
25%
22%
Is a strong leader
22
25
Has true conservative values
18
18
Would shake things up in Washington
13
14
Can defeat the Democratic nominee
13
11
(All / Mixed)
9
9
(None / Other)
*
*
(Dont know)
*
*

Questions 8-12 are held for future release.

[RESUME ALL]
13. Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?
(No
Yes
No
party/independent) (Dont know)
18-21 Jan 16
Likely Dem caucus-goers
29%
68
2
2
Likely GOP caucus-goers
53%
44
1
3
PAST TREND
4-7 Jan 16
Likely GOP caucus-goers
57%
39
*
3

Fox News Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
January 18-21, 2015 among a random state sample of 801 likely Iowa caucus-goers.
Results for the 378 likely Republican caucus-goers have a margin of error of plus or minus 5
percentage points.
Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:
Republican Caucus-goers +/- 5%
+/- 6%
Men:
+/- 8%
Women:
--+/- 6.5%
College Degree:
+/- 7.5%
No College Degree:
--+/- 6.5%
Definitely Attend Caucus:
+/- 7.5%
Probably Attend Caucus:
--+/- 9.5%
True Conservative Values:
--+/- 8.5%
Under Age 45:
+/- 6%
Age 45+:
--+/- 10%
Income Under $50k:
+/- 6%
Income $50k+:
--+/- 7.5%
White Evangelical:
--+/- 7.5%
Very Conservative:
--+/- 5.5%
Republican:
--+/- 10%
Tea Party:
--First-time Caucus Attendee: +/- 8%

1. How likely is it that you will attend one of the Iowa caucuses scheduled for February -- will you definitely
attend, probably attend, probably not attend, or definitely not attend?

Definitely attend
Democratic caucus
Probably attend
Democratic caucus
Definitely attend
Republican caucus
Probably attend
Republican caucus
Probably not attend
caucus
Definitely not attend
caucus
(Not sure)

Definitely attend
Democratic caucus
Probably attend
Democratic caucus
Definitely attend
Republican caucus
Probably attend
Republican caucus
Probably not attend
caucus
Definitely not attend
caucus
(Not sure)

Total
32%

Dem
61%

Rep
4%

Ind
31%

Men
28%

Women
36%

College
Degree
37%

No
Degree
26%

1st time
caucus
20%

20%

37%

2%

27%

19%

22%

19%

23%

25%

26%

1%

52%

20%

31%

21%

27%

24%

21%

22%

1%

42%

22%

22%

21%

18%

27%

34%

Total
32%

Under
Age 35
31%

35-54
33%

55+
33%

65+
35%

Under
$50k
30%

$50k+
32%

Lib
61%

Cons
8%

Tea
Party
7%

20%

21%

19%

21%

21%

26%

18%

29%

11%

4%

26%

25%

29%

24%

22%

16%

30%

3%

46%

64%

22%

23%

19%

22%

22%

28%

20%

6%

35%

25%

2. How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested, very interested,
somewhat interested or not at all interested?

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
(Don't know)

Total
53%
35%
12%
1%
*%

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
(Don't know)

Total
53%
35%
12%
1%
*%

Dem
49%
35%
16%
*%
*%

Rep
56%
36%
7%
1%
*%

Under
Age 35
48%
38%
14%
*%
-

Ind
53%
33%
15%
-

35-54
54%
33%
13%
*%
-

Men
56%
33%
10%
1%
*%

Women
50%
36%
13%
1%
-

College
Degree
55%
34%
10%
*%
*%

55+
54%
35%
10%
1%
*%

65+
54%
36%
9%
1%
*%

No
Degree
49%
37%
14%
1%
Under
$50k
49%
37%
13%
1%
-

1st time
caucus
46%
38%
15%
1%
*%

$50k+
55%
33%
11%
*%
*%

Lib
52%
33%
14%
1%
-

Cons
55%
36%
9%
*%
-

Tea
Party
65%
32%
3%
-

3. [REPUBLICAN CAUCUS] I'm going to read a list of candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If the caucus
were held today, which one of the following would be your first choice for president?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
(Other)
("Uncommitted")
(Don't know)

Total
4%
7%
4%
23%
1%
2%
2%
6%
12%
2%
34%
1%
*%
2%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
(Other)
("Uncommitted")
(Don't know)

Total
4%
7%
4%
23%
1%
2%
2%
6%
12%
2%
34%
1%
*%
2%

Men
5%
6%
4%
25%
1%
3%
3%
8%
9%
1%
33%
1%
1%

Women
4%
8%
4%
20%
1%
1%
1%
3%
15%
3%
35%
1%
4%

Under
Age 45
7%
4%
25%
1%
1%
16%
10%
1%
31%
2%
2%

College
Degree
6%
6%
4%
22%
2%
2%
3%
7%
15%
1%
30%
2%

45+
6%
7%
4%
22%
1%
3%
2%
2%
12%
3%
35%
*%
2%

No
Degree
2%
8%
4%
24%
3%
1%
5%
7%
3%
38%
1%
1%
3%

Under
$50k
4%
8%
3%
16%
4%
7%
9%
4%
39%
2%
2%

Attend
Caucus
Def
3%
5%
5%
27%
1%
2%
3%
6%
8%
1%
35%
1%
3%

$50k+
5%
6%
4%
25%
1%
2%
3%
6%
12%
1%
32%
*%
2%

Prob
6%
9%
3%
18%
1%
2%
1%
6%
17%
3%
33%
1%
2%

White
Evan
1%
8%
4%
31%
1%
4%
1%
7%
10%
3%
29%
1%
1%

True
Cons
1%
9%
1%
41%
4%
10%
15%
2%
12%
2%
4%
Very
Cons
1%
8%
3%
34%
1%
3%
1%
5%
8%
1%
33%
1%
2%

Rep
5%
8%
5%
24%
1%
2%
2%
4%
13%
2%
33%
1%
*%
2%

Tea
Party
9%
4%
30%
3%
8%
3%
1%
39%
2%

1st time
caucus
2%
5%
4%
19%
2%
1%
*%
7%
14%
1%
43%
2%
1%

4. [REPUBLICAN CAUCUS] Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else?

Certain
May change
(Don't know)

Total
63%
33%
4%

Certain
May change
(Don't know)

Total
63%
33%
4%

Men
64%
35%
2%

Women
63%
31%
6%

Under
Age 45
71%
27%
2%

College
Degree
65%
32%
2%

45+
60%
36%
4%

No
Degree
60%
35%
5%

Under
$50k
62%
33%
6%

Attend
Caucus
Def
72%
24%
4%

$50k+
65%
32%
3%

Prob
53%
44%
3%

White
Evan
63%
35%
2%

True
Cons
64%
33%
4%
Very
Cons
65%
32%
3%

Rep
63%
35%
3%

Tea
Party
67%
28%
5%

1st time
caucus
63%
36%
1%

5. [REPUBLICAN CAUCUS] And who would be your second choice?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
(Other)
("Uncommitted")
(No first choice)
(Don't know)

Total
5%
8%
3%
22%
4%
*%
5%
1%
3%
15%
1%
14%
1%
5%
2%
11%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
(Other)
("Uncommitted")
(No first choice)
(Don't know)

Total
5%
8%
3%
22%
4%
*%
5%
1%
3%
15%
1%
14%
1%
5%
2%
11%

Men
5%
9%
4%
25%
4%
*%
4%
2%
3%
13%
14%
1%
5%
1%
10%

Women
5%
6%
2%
19%
4%
6%
3%
17%
2%
13%
1%
5%
5%
12%

Under
Age 45
5%
9%
1%
23%
4%
1%
5%
*%
1%
16%
1%
16%
1%
6%
2%
10%

College
Degree
5%
9%
3%
22%
4%
*%
4%
1%
5%
17%
1%
12%
1%
3%
2%
11%

45+
5%
7%
4%
22%
4%
5%
2%
4%
14%
*%
12%
*%
5%
3%
12%

No
Degree
5%
6%
4%
24%
4%
6%
2%
12%
16%
8%
3%
10%

Under
$50k
5%
6%
3%
31%
3%
10%
3%
12%
1%
11%
6%
2%
7%

Attend
Caucus
Def
4%
10%
4%
20%
4%
*%
3%
1%
4%
18%
*%
13%
1%
3%
3%
11%

$50k+
5%
8%
4%
19%
4%
*%
3%
1%
4%
16%
*%
15%
1%
5%
2%
12%

Prob
7%
5%
2%
25%
4%
7%
2%
1%
11%
1%
14%
1%
8%
2%
11%

White
Evan
5%
8%
1%
21%
3%
*%
7%
1%
1%
18%
1%
18%
1%
6%
1%
7%

True
Cons
4%
13%
1%
21%
5%
7%
*%
3%
11%
1%
18%
6%
4%
6%
Very
Cons
3%
11%
2%
26%
2%
5%
*%
2%
15%
1%
16%
1%
2%
3%
10%

Rep
4%
8%
3%
23%
4%
*%
5%
1%
2%
16%
1%
14%
*%
4%
2%
11%

Tea
Party
4%
13%
3%
31%
2%
1%
1%
1%
11%
19%
3%
2%
7%

1st time
caucus
4%
5%
1%
25%
2%
2%
1%
1%
14%
1%
17%
1%
9%
1%
16%

6. [REPUBLICAN CAUCUS] Are there any Republican candidates you would refuse to vote for against the Democrat in
November?

(I would support any of

them/None/No one)
(Trump)
(Carson)
(Cruz)
(Rubio)
(Bush)
(Fiorina)
(Huckabee)
(Christie)
(Kasich)
(Paul)
(Santorum)
(Gilmore)
(Don't know)

(I would support any of

them/None/No one)
(Trump)
(Carson)
(Cruz)
(Rubio)
(Bush)
(Fiorina)
(Huckabee)
(Christie)
(Kasich)
(Paul)
(Santorum)
(Gilmore)
(Don't know)

Total
48%

Men
51%

Women
44%

College
Degree
46%

20%
5%
11%
8%
14%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
5%
4%
10%

18%
5%
13%
10%
16%
5%
7%
7%
6%
8%
7%
5%
9%

23%
4%
8%
6%
11%
5%
3%
2%
4%
6%
2%
3%
12%

21%
4%
13%
10%
14%
5%
6%
4%
5%
8%
6%
4%
8%

No
Degree
50%

Attend
Caucus
Def
44%

Prob
53%

True
Cons
49%

20%
5%
7%
6%
13%
6%
4%
6%
6%
7%
4%
4%
13%

20%
8%
13%
12%
20%
8%
8%
7%
8%
9%
7%
5%
8%

20%
1%
7%
3%
7%
2%
2%
2%
2%
5%
3%
2%
13%

28%
1%
1%
6%
12%
7%
5%
4%
4%
5%
5%
2%
7%

Total
48%

Under
Age 45
52%

45+
46%

Under
$50k
47%

$50k+
49%

White
Evan
51%

Very
Cons
53%

Rep
52%

Tea
Party
49%

1st time
caucus
46%

20%
5%
11%
8%
14%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
5%
4%
10%

20%
6%
8%
9%
11%
6%
7%
7%
4%
6%
8%
4%
9%

20%
4%
11%
8%
15%
5%
5%
4%
6%
8%
3%
4%
11%

24%
4%
7%
9%
11%
7%
6%
5%
6%
6%
7%
5%
11%

20%
5%
13%
7%
14%
4%
5%
4%
5%
7%
4%
4%
10%

21%
5%
5%
8%
15%
5%
4%
5%
5%
6%
4%
3%
9%

15%
2%
5%
10%
17%
7%
5%
5%
6%
8%
5%
2%
9%

19%
4%
9%
6%
12%
4%
3%
3%
5%
7%
3%
3%
8%

9%
4%
7%
7%
23%
6%
5%
5%
7%
6%
2%
3%
15%

22%
5%
8%
11%
12%
5%
6%
6%
5%
8%
8%
4%
16%

7. [REPUBLICAN CAUCUS] Which one of the following candidate qualities will matter most in deciding which
candidate to support for the Republican nomination? That the candidate:

Is willing to tell it
like it is
Is a strong leader
Has true conservative
values
Can win in November
Has the right experience
(All/Mixed)
(None/Other)
(Don't know)

Is willing to tell it
like it is
Is a strong leader
Has true conservative
values
Can win in November
Has the right experience
(All/Mixed)
(None/Other)
(Don't know)

No
Degree
30%

Attend
Caucus
Def
23%

Prob
24%

True
Cons
-

Total
24%

Men
23%

Women
24%

College
Degree
18%

23%
27%

20%
29%

27%
25%

23%
29%

22%
24%

19%
30%

27%
24%

100%

9%
7%
10%
1%
*%

10%
6%
11%
1%
1%

8%
7%
8%
1%
-

10%
8%
10%
1%
*%

8%
5%
9%
1%
1%

11%
5%
10%
2%
*%

7%
9%
9%
1%

Total
24%

Under
Age 45
25%

45+
23%

Under
$50k
22%

$50k+
26%

White
Evan
22%

Very
Cons
18%

Rep
24%

Tea
Party
23%

1st time
caucus
28%

23%
27%

14%
33%

27%
25%

20%
28%

23%
25%

21%
34%

16%
43%

22%
28%

12%
47%

27%
21%

9%
7%
10%
1%
*%

12%
5%
10%
1%

8%
7%
10%
1%
*%

8%
10%
10%
1%

10%
6%
9%
1%
-

7%
6%
8%
1%
*%

6%
3%
13%
1%
-

8%
6%
11%
1%
*%

5%
2%
10%
1%

10%
4%
9%
1%
-

13. Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?

Yes
No
(No party/independent)
(Don't know)

Total
40%
57%
1%
2%

Yes
No
(No party/independent)
(Don't know)

Total
40%
57%
1%
2%

Dem
26%
72%
*%
2%

Rep
50%
46%
1%
3%

Under
Age 35
35%
60%
2%
2%

Ind
52%
42%
6%
-

35-54
40%
56%
3%
1%

Men
49%
49%
1%
1%

Women
31%
64%
1%
3%

College
Degree
37%
60%
1%
2%

55+
42%
55%
*%
3%

65+
37%
60%
*%
3%

No
Degree
44%
52%
1%
2%
Under
$50k
36%
60%
1%
3%

1st time
caucus
41%
56%
1%
2%

$50k+
43%
54%
2%
1%

Lib
28%
69%
1%
1%

Cons
50%
47%
1%
2%

Tea
Party
70%
29%
1%
1%