Determining the Size

of a Sample
Dr Mahfuz Kabir
Course Instructor

Few basics
How much sample size is enough?
- its never enough
Sample size is typically a result of budget or timing considerations, and
there are more subtle and much more important factors to consider.
One issue to think about is the difference between the interviews you
collect and the interviews you will use to make the final decision.
Good research, therefore, must anticipate possible types of outcomes and
make provisions to ensure there will be more than never enough.
Overall, it is probably better to conduct fewer studies with more funding
behind them, while developing more meaningful results

Sample accuracy
Instead of determining representativeness, the size of the sample affects
the sample accuracy of results
Sample accuracy refers to how close a random samples statistic (for
example, mean of the responses to a particular question) is to the true
populations value it represents
Sample size will have a direct bearing on how accurate the samples
findings are relative to the true values in the population
Larger random samples are more accurate than smaller random samples.
However, 5 is not 5 times more accurate than 1, and 10 is not twice as
accurate as 5
Sample size is not fully related to representativeness, but related more
to accuracy

SAMPLE SIZE

How to determine the number of respondents in a particular sample is

actually one of the simplest decisions within the marketing research
process
In reality, a sample size decision is usually a compromise between what is
theoretically perfect and what is practically feasible
Two good reasons a marketing researcher should have a basic
understanding of sample size determination:
First, many practitioners have a large sample size bias, which is a false
belief that sample size determines a samples representativeness.
Second, a marketing manager should have a firm understanding of
sample size determination because the size of the sample is often a
major cost factor, particularly for personal interviews but even with
telephone surveys

The Axioms of Sample Size and Sample Accuracy

1. The only perfectly accurate sample is a census.
2. A probability sample will always have some inaccuracy (sample error).
3. The larger a probability sample is, the more accurate it is (less sample
error).
4. Probability sample accuracy (error) can be calculated with a simple
formula, and expressed as a % number.
5. You can take any finding in the survey, replicate the survey with the same
probability sample size, and you will be very likely to find the same
finding within the range of the original finding.
6. In almost all cases, the accuracy (sample error) of a probability sample is
independent of the size of the population.
7. A probability sample size can be a very tiny percentage of the population
size and still be very accurate (have little sample error)

THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL METHOD

OF DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE
The most correct method of determining sample size is the
confidence interval approach, which applies the concepts of
accuracy (sample error), variability, and confidence interval
to create a correct sample size
Because it is the theoretically most correct method, it is the
one used by national opinion polling companies and most
marketing researchers

Sample Size and Accuracy

Axiom 1: The only perfectly accurate sample is a census
Accuracy is referred to as sample error.
A survey has two types of error: non-sampling error and sampling
error.
Non-sampling error pertains to all sources of error other than the
sample selection method and sample size
includes problem specification mistakes, question bias, and incorrect analysis

Sampling error is the difference between the sample finding and the
true population value due to the fact that a sample was taken
Because a census accounts for every single individual, it is completely
accurate, meaning that it has no sample error whatsoever

Sample Size and Accuracy

Axiom 2: A probability sample will always have some
inaccuracy (sample error).
No random sample is a perfect representation of the
population.
However, a random sample is nonetheless a very good
representation of the population, even if it is not perfectly
accurate.

Sample Size and Accuracy

Axiom 3: The larger a
probability sample is, the
more accurate it is (less
sample error)
There is a relationship
between sample size and the
accuracy of that sample
As the sample size increases
the sample error decreases
Doubling sample size does
not result in halving the
sample error

The Relationship Between Sample Size

and Sample Error

Sample Size and Accuracy

Axiom 4: Probability sample accuracy (error) can
be calculated with a simple formula, and
expressed as a percent number
This formula is simple as n is the sample size,
and there is a constant, 1.96. But what are p and
q?
p and q: The Notion of Variability
p = percent (probability of success)
q = 100% p
p and q will always sum to 100 percent as in the
cases of 90% + 10% and 50% + 50%.

The Notion of a Confidence Interval

Axiom 5: You can take any finding in
the survey, replicate the survey with
the same probability sample size, and
you will be very likely to find the same
finding within the percent range of
the original finding
This axiom is based on the idea of a
confidence interval.
A confidence interval is a range whose
endpoints define a certain percentage
of the responses to a question
The properties of the normal curve are
such that 1.96 times the standard
deviation theoretically defines the
endpoints for 95% of the distribution

A Normal Curve with Its 95%

Properties Identified

The Notion of a Confidence Interval

Axiom 6: In almost all cases, the accuracy (sample error) of a probability sample is
independent of the size of the population
Sample error formula with 50%, 50%, and 100

Confidence interval = p sample error

The limits of the 95 percent confidence interval in our example is 50% 9.8%, or
40.2% to 59.8%

Confidence Interval

How can a researcher use the confidence

interval?
The confidence interval approach allows the
researcher to predict what would be found if
a survey were replicated many, many times
No client would agree to the cost of 1,000
replications, but the researcher can say, I
found that 50% of the sample intends to
order Dominos the next time. I am very
confident that the true population
percentage is between 40.2% and 59.8%; in
fact, I am confident that if I did this survey
over 1,000 times, 95% of the findings will fall
in this range.
What if the confidence interval was too
wide?

Sample Size and Accuracy

Axiom 7: A probability sample size can be a very tiny percentage of the
population size and still be very accurate (have little sample error)
National opinion polls tend to use sample sizes ranging from 1,000 to
1,200 people, meaning that the sample error is around 3 percent, or
highly accurate.
A sample size of 5,000 yields an error of 1.4 percent, which is a very
small error level
Yet 5,000 is less than 1% of 1 million, and a great many consumer
marketscola drinkers, condominium owners, debit card users, allergy
sufferers, home gardeners, Internet surfers, and so onare each
comprised of many millions of customers

THE SAMPLE SIZE FORMULA

Determining Sample Size via the Confidence Interval Formula
Standard sample size formula for a mean

where
n = the sample size
z = standard error associated with the chosen level of confidence (1.96)
p = estimated percent in the population
q = 100 p
e = acceptable sample error

Sample Size Formula

Variability: p Times q
This formula is used if we are focusing on some nominally scaled
question in the survey.
With little variation in the population, we can take smaller samples
because this is accommodated by the formula by p times q.
The estimated percentage in the population, p, is the mechanism that
performs this translation along with q, which is always determined by p
as q = 100% p

Sample Size Formula

Desired Accuracy: e
The formula includes another factoracceptable sample error.
Acceptable error is the very same concept that was introduced to you
earlier. That is, the term, e, is the amount of sample error that will be
associated with the survey.
It is used to indicate how close your sample percentage finding will be to
the true population percentage if you were to report the study many,
many times.

Sample Size Formula

Level of Confidence: z
The percentage of area under the normal curve described by our calculated
confidence intervals
Thus far, we used the constant, 1.96, because 1.96 is the z value that pertains
to 95 percent confidence intervals
Researchers typically only worry about the 95 percent or 99 percent level of
confidence
The 95% level of confidence is by far the most commonly used one, so we
used 1.96 in the examples earlier and referred to it as a constant because it is
the chosen z in most cases
Also, 1.96 rounds up to 2
Market researchers almost never deviate from 95%, but if they do, 99% is the
likely level to be used.

Sample Size Formula: Example 1

Sample Size Formula: Example 2

Sample Size Formula: Example 3

Determining Sample Size Estimating a Mean

1.7 is the largest variability estimate possible (1-10 scale

with mid-point not 5)

How to Estimate Variability in the Population

Two alternatives:
1. expect the worst case or
2. estimate what the actual variability is.
The worst case, or most, variability is 50 percent/50 percent.
This assumption is the most conservative one, and it will result in the
calculation of the largest possible sample size.
On the other hand, a researcher may want to estimate p, or the
percentage, in order to lower the sample size
Remember that any p/q combination other than 50%/50% will result
in a lower calculated sample size.
A lower sample size means less effort, time, and cost, so there are
good reasons for a researcher to try to estimate p.

How to Determine the Amount of Desired

Sample Error
Marketing researchers often must help decision makers understand the
sample size implications of their requests for high precision, expressed as
allowable error
It is almost always up to the researcher to educate the manager on what
might be acceptable or standard sample error
Translated in terms of precision, the more precise the marketing decision
maker desires the estimate to be, the larger must be the sample size
Thus, it is the task of the marketing research director to extract from the
marketing decision maker the acceptable range of allowable error
sufficient for him or her to make a decision
The acceptable sample error is specified as a plus or minus percentage

How to Decide on the Level of Confidence

Desired
The typical approach in marketing research is to use the standard
confidence interval of 95 percent.
As we have also indicated, this level translates into a z of 1.96.
Any level of confidence between 1% and 99.9% is possible, but
marketing researchers primarily use 95 or 99% level of confidence
With the 99% level of confidence, the corresponding z value is 2.58.
The 99% level of confidence means that if the survey were replicated
many, many times with the sample size determined by using 2.58 in
the sample size formula, 99% of the sample ps would fall in the
sample error range.

To be continued