Center for Public Opinion

Dr. Joshua J. Dyck and Dr. Francis Talty, Co-Directors

http://www.uml.edu/polls
@UML_CPO
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

UMass Lowell/7NEWS
Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 2
Survey produced by Prof. Joshua J. Dyck, Ph.D.
Field Dates: 1/30/16-2/1/16
N=1412 New Hampshire Registered Voters (RVs)
N=470 Republican Primary Likely Voters (LVs); N=443 Democratic Primary Likely Voters
Adjusted Margin of Error: +/- 2.95% for all RVs; +/- 5.0% for Rep LVs; +/- 5.3% for Dem LVs
Margins of error have been adjusted to include for design effects resulting from weighting and
survey design features.
Methodology in Brief
Data collection by live interviewers from Abt SRBI, Inc. This is a probability sample of 1412 New
Hampshire Registered Voters (RVs) collected using an overlapping dual-frame random digit dial design
with a 50% landline/50% cell phone target split (actual split was 53% LL/47% Cell). Using the model
detailed on page two, we classified 470 RVs as Republican Likely Voters (LVs) and 443 as Democratic
LVs.
The data were first weighted to address the imbalance that occurs because some respondents have a
greater probability of being included in the frame if they have multiple landlines or both a landline and a
cellular number. To ensure a representative sample, we collected demographic data on all respondents
who were residents of New Hampshire and at least 18 years of age (including non-registered voters) so
that our overall sample can be weighted to data on age by gender, education, and race from the 2014
American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The youngest male/female method was used for inhousehold selection.
UMass Lowell is a public institution and releases surveys as a source of public information. We report
our questionnaire in our topline document, which includes likely voter model questions and wording. We
offer a complete methodology report, as well an extensive set of crosstabs. Our goal is complete
transparency in the reporting of our findings. If there is something in the release you do not see, please
contact Dr. Joshua J. Dyck (joshua_dyck@uml.edu; @drjjdyck).

* indicates <0.5%; some numbers do not sum to 100 due to rounding

LIKELY VOTER MODEL (Asked of all RVs)

Q3

As you know, the primary election for U.S. President will be held in New Hampshire on Tuesday,
February 9th. How closely are you following news about candidates running for President
very closely, somewhat closely, just a bit, or havent you really been following it much at all?
51%
34
9
5
*

Q4

How often would you say that you vote when theres a Presidential primary election always,
almost always, just sometimes, hardly ever, or never? If you have just registered to vote for the
first time, please tell me.
74%
12
5
2
2
4
*

Q5

Very closely
Somewhat closely
Just a bit
Havent really been following it much at all
(VOL) Don't know/no answer

Always
Almost always
Just sometimes
Hardly ever
Never
Just registered to vote for first time
(VOL) Don't know/no answer

Many people dont vote when theres an election. At this point, would you say youll definitely
NOT vote New Hampshire Presidential primary election, PROBABLY NOT vote, may or may
not vote depending upon how you feel at the time, PROBABLY vote, or DEFINITELY vote in
the New Hampshire Presidential primary election? If you have already voted or early voted, just
tell me.
7%
2
4
10
75
2
*

Definitely not vote

Probably not vote
May or may not vote
Probably vote
Definitely vote
Already voted
(VOL) Dont know/No Answer

Likely voters are defined as those who are following news of the election very closely or somewhat
closely (Q3=1,2), always or almost always vote when theres an election (Q4=1,2), and say that they
definitely will vote, or have already voted in the election (Q5=5,6). Voters who have just registered
(Q4=6) are also defined as likely voters if they definitely will vote, or have already voted in the
election (Q5=5,6) and are following news of the election very closely (Q3=1). Independent registrants
who dont know or refuse to state which ballot they will take are also screened out.
Out of 1412 RVs, 470 are defined as Republican Likely Voters and 443 are defined as Democratic Likely
Voters.

ALLOCATING INDEPENDENTS
All registered Republicans and Democrats were asked the trial heat questions in Q7 and Q8 on the next
few pages (we use the Likely Voter Model on Page two to distinguish between RVs and LVs). However,
we created an additional screen for those who are not registered with a political party.
Q6a
Those not registered with a political party have the option to take either the Republican or
Democratic ballot. Which ballot would you take -- The Democratic ballot or the Republican ballot?
OR
[For those who indicated already voted in Q5]
Q6b
Those not registered with a political party have the option to take either the Republican or
Democratic ballot. Which ballot did you take -- The Democratic ballot or the Republican ballot?
37%
37
27

Democratic
Republican
(VOL) Dont know/No answer/ Neither ballot/Will not vote

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (N=442 LVs)

Q7

If the NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY was being held today
would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or Martin
OMalley]?
Q7a

Do you lean more towards[order as Q7]? [if DK/NA/REF]

Q7b. Did you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or Martin
OMalley]? [if already voted, q5=6]
LVs
30%
63
1
1
4
*

RVs
30%
63
1
2
4
*

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided/Other
Q9

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
(VOL) Other Candidate (Specify)
(VOL) Dont know/Unsure
(VOL) Refused
Time Trend
2/1
2/2
30
30
61
63
1
1
8
5

2/3

2/4

2/5

2/6

2/7

2/8

Will you definitely vote for [candidate named] in the New Hampshire presidential primary or is
there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else?
76%
24

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely will vote for candidate

Could change mind
Will you definitely vote for [candidate named] in the New Hampshire
presidential primary or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote
for someone else?
2/1
2/2
2/3
2/4
Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders
76
76
79
81
24

24

21

19

2/5
Clinton

Sanders

2/6
Clinton

Sanders

2/7
Clinton

Sanders

2/8
Clinton

Sanders

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY LV CROSS-TABS

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided/Other
1

Party Registration
Democrat Independent
34
24
59
70
*
2
7
4

Party ID
Democrat
37
58
1
4

Republican
-----

Republican1
-----

Independent
21
71
1
9

10 Republican identifiers were classified as Dem LVs; insufficient data for cross-tabs

Income

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided/Other

Below
$50K

$50k$100k

$100k &
up

28
68
1
3

28
64
0
7

36
58
3
3

Gender

Age
1829
6
91
3
0

Education
High
School or
Less
36
61
0
3

College
Degree

24
69
2
5

22
73
0
6

Post
Graduate
Degree
43
50
1
6

Ideology
3039
5
88
0
7

4049
24
70
2
4

5064
38
53
1
8

Male

Female

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided/Other

25
69
2
5

35
59
0
7

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Undecided/Other

Trust Government2
Always/Most of
Only Sometimes
the Time
44
26
50
69
2
*
4
5

Some
College

65+

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

44
50
0
6

29
66
1
4

30
64
0
7

40
44
3
13

Never
23
63
4
10

Religiosity3
Not Very
Religious
29
65
1
6

Very
Religious
39
50
3
7

How much of the time can you trust the federal government in Washington DC to do whats right?
Religiosity defined as those who attend church at least once a week and who believe that scriptures contain no errors

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (N=461 LVs)

Q8

If the NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY was being held today
would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER: candidate list below]?
Q8a

Do you lean more towards[order as Q8]? [if DK/NA/REF]

Q8b.

Did you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER: candidate list below]? [if already voted, q5=6]

LVs
38%
14
10
9
9
5
3
2
1
3
0
2
4
1

RVs
38%
12
10
8
10
5
3
3
*
2
*
2
6
1

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Undecided/Other

Q9

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Other Candidate (Specify)
(VOL) Dont know/Unsure
(VOL) Refused
Time Trend (LVs only)
2/1
2/2
2/3
38
38
12
14
8
10
9
9
9
9
7
5
4
3
4
2
1
1
2
3
0
0
8
7

2/4

2/5

2/6

2/7

2/8

Will you definitely vote for [candidate named] in the New Hampshire presidential primary or is
there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else?
56%
44

Definitely will vote for candidate

Could change mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Will you definitely vote for [candidate named] in the New Hampshire
presidential primary or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote
for someone else?
2/1
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Bush
Christie Carson Paul
72
65
43
65
41
34
34
42
28

35

57

35

59

66

66

58

2/2
Trump
69

Cruz
58

Rubio
57

Kasich
65

Bush
50

Christie
49

Carson
27

Paul
49

31

42

43

35

50

51

73

51

2/3
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

2/4
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

2/5
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

2/6
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

2/7
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

2/8
Trump

Cruz

Rubio

Kasich

Bush

Christie

Carson

Paul

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

Definitely
Could Change
Mind

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY LV CROSS-TABS

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Undecided/Other
4

Party Registration
Democrat Independent
-42
-10
-9
-10
-10
-7
-2
-3
-2
-3
-0
-2

Republican
35
16
11
8
8
4
3
2
0
4
0
10

Party ID
Democrat4
-------------

Independent
39
10
8
11
9
7
3
3
2
2
0
7

Republican
37
17
12
6
8
4
3
1
0
4
0
7

7 Democratic identifiers were classified as Rep LVs; insufficient data for cross-tabs

Income

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Undecided/Other

Below
$50K

$50k$100k

$100k &
up

40
14
9
3
9
2
7
3
0
5
0
8

39
16
9
10
7
5
3
1
0
2
0
9

38
12
14
10
8
6
2
2
2
3
0
3

Education
High
School or
Less
56
12
5
2
6
3
4
0
2
*
0
4

Some
College

College
Degree

34
18
9
6
13
2
2
3
1
3
0
7

28
13
16
15
6
9
4
4
0
2
0
5

Post
Graduate
Degree
22
13
14
20
10
10
2
0
0
6
0
4

Gender

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Undecided/Other
5

Male

Female

42
12
8
9
5
6
3
3
1
2
0
7

32
16
12
9
13
4
3
0
0
4
0
6

Age
1829
41
12
18
0
6
3
3
13
0
0
0
4

Ideology
3039
54
9
13
5
0
2
2
2
0
7
0
5

4049
45
18
5
5
12
3
4
1
2
1
0
3

5064
36
16
10
9
7
7
2
1
0
3
0
9

65+

Liberal5

Moderate

Conservative

27
10
11
16
11
7
4
0
1
4
0
9

-------------

37
8
5
16
12
6
*
2
2
5
0
8

38
18
13
5
7
4
4
2
*
2
0
5

18 liberals classified as Republican LVs; insufficient data for cross-tabs

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Undecided/Other
6

Trust Government6
Always/Most of
Only Sometimes
the Time
26
37
9
13
11
11
18
10
21
8
4
7
0
3
1
2
0
*
0
3
0
0
10
7

Never
44
18
8
2
6
2
5
3
2
5
0
6

Religiosity7
Not Very
Religious
40
11
10
9
9
5
3
2
1
3
0
7

How much of the time can you trust the federal government in Washington DC to do whats right?
Religiosity defined as those who attend church at least once a week and who believe that scriptures contain no errors

Very
Religious
29
27
9
8
9
6
3
2
0
3
0
6

WHO WILL WIN? & TRUST IN GOVERNMENT

Q16 Regardless of who you support, who do you think will be the next President of the United States?
[OPTIONS WERE NOT READ]

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin OMalley
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Michael
Bloomberg
Other/DK/NA

ALL Registered Voters

2/1
2/2
2/3
23
23
16
17
*
0
22
24
3
3
2
3
1
1
2
2
1
*
*
2
0
*
0
0
*
*
0
0
*
*
30

2/4

2/5

2/6

2/7

2/8

27

Q18
How much of the time do you think you can trust the federal government in Washington DC to do
whats right?
LV
RV
1%
2%
Just about always
15
15
Most of the time
65
64
Only some of the time
17
17
(VOL) Never
1
2
(VOL) Dont know/No Answer
*
*
(VOL) Refused

Demographics and Political Variables

Weighted percentages
Party ID
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Party Registration

RVs
25
49
27
RVs

LVs
28
41
31
LVs

Rep LVs
1
43
56
Rep LVs

Dem LVs
60
39
2
Dem LVs

Democrat
Independent/Else/DK/NA
Republican
Ideology
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Age
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-64
65 and up
Gender
Male
Female
Race/Ethnicity
White
Non-White
Education
High school or less
Some College
College Degree
Post-Graduate Degree
Income
Less than $50k
$50k-$100k
More than $100k
Religiosity
Not Very Religious
Very Religious

23
50
27
RVs
24
41
35
RVs
15
13
18
31
22
RVs
49
51
RVs
92
8
RVs
31
32
23
14
RVs
31
30
26
RVs
86
15

29
33
38
LVs
26
34
40
LVs
10
11
19
35
26
LVs
51
49
LVs
93
7
LVs
26
32
25
16
LVs
26
32
29
LVs
84
16

-39
61
Rep LVs
3
30
67
Rep LVs
8
9
22
37
23
Rep LVs
56
44
Rep LVs
94
6
Rep LVs
31
33
25
11
Rep LVs
18
35
31
Rep LVs
79
21

63
37
-Dem LVs
52
38
10
Dem LVs
12
12
14
33
29
Dem LVs
45
55
Dem LVs
92
8
Dem LVs
22
31
25
22
Dem LVs
34
29
25
Dem LVs
91
9