Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Sumrio
1. A GEOPOLTICA DA ENERGIA
2. EVOLUO dos PREOS do PETRLEO e GS no MUNDO
e CONSEQUNCIAS ECONMICAS e GEOPOLTICAS
3. O PAPEL do SHALE GAS
4. IMPLICAES para o FUTURO
01-10-2015
1. A GEOPOLTICA DA ENERGIA
01-10-2015
A GEOPOLTICA e a
ECONOMIA
OS RECURSOS
AS AMEAAS GLOBAIS
. Climtica (migraes)
. Efeitos da globalizao
. Terrorismo
. Declnio do Estado-Nao
. Pirataria
. Emergncia de Novos
Actores
. Estados falhados
- Minerais
. Colapso da ordem em
zonas do Globo
- Energticos
. Proliferao Nuclear
- gua
. Transferncia parcial do
poder financeiro
01-10-2015
. Armas de destruio
macia
. Intensificao da luta
pelos recursos:
- Alimentares
. Controle de matriasprimas estratgicas
01-10-2015
O RITMO EXPONENCIAL DE
CONSUMO E OS LIMITES DA
GEOLOGIA
A INDSTRIA MINEIRA
Consome hoje de 4 a 10% da energia
primria produzida no mundo
Extraco de metais exige 10 vezes mais
energia que a extraco fludos
A barreira mineralgica
Nos prximos 20 anos escala do Globo
preciso extrair mais minrios que durante
toda a Histria anterior da Humanidade
Declnio das descobertas e esgotamento
grandes jazigos
PLANETA TERRA
O sentimento de abundncia
uma iluso?
13 000 km de dimetro
Mais de 100 elementos
qumicos
2 000 espcies de
minerais
Mais de 3 000 mil milhes
de barris de petrleo
AS TECNOLOGIAS
A TABELA PERIDICA DE
MENDELEIEV
UM MUNDO DE RECURSOS
FINITOS
Os eternos optimistas e os
eternos pessimistas
01-10-2015
Bauxite
Cobalt
PERCENT
INCREASE
1950 - 2000
1950
1975
2000
8,370
25,401
135,000
1,513
30
Copper
2,645
6,960
Iron ore
250,000
887,389
Nickel
146
787
1,250
756
Titanium
814
3,298
5,187
537
33
371
13,200
399
1,061,148
324
3,8
19,5
27,3
618
7,2
55,8
85,1
1,082
Source: US Grological Survey, Minerals Yearbook; BP, Statistical Review of Weorld Energy
01-10-2015
POPULATION
7 billion people
GDP
65 trillion US$
2030
2012
WORLD CHALLENGES
POPULATION
8,5 billion people
GDP
130 trillion US
CAR FLEET
CAR FLEET
3 billion cars
OIL USE
14 barrels/person/year
3 barrels/person/year
01-10-2015
ELECTRICITY
ELECTRICITY
WATER
WATER
GLOBALIZATION OF
OIL DEMAND
OIL-SUPPLY CAPACITY
IS GROWING
KEY
FEATURES
of the OIL
and the
GAS
MARKETS
UNPARALLEL
INVESTMENT CYCLE
GEOPOLITICAL EFFECTS
Market instability
Perception of supply disruptions
The fear factor
Long-term oil price above 70
US$/bbl
01-10-2015
DE-CONVENTIONALIZATION
OF OIL SUPPLY
US Gas Shale Revolution
Impact on Oil Shale and Tight
Oil
Build-up of US, Venezuela and
Canadian production capacity
Brazil and Atlantic Basin PreSalt-discoveries
FINANCIALIZATION
OF OIL
Commodity but also financial
asset
New era of oil pricing dynamics
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11
1
10
a
b
5
6
9
13
12
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JIHAD IN AFRICA
THE DANGER IN THE DESERT
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GAS EXPORT
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INSTABILITY in PRODUCING
COUNTRIES and THREATS
to SUPPLY
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FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
ACCIDENT
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LEVEL of
INVENTORIES
US stockpiles
Europe stockpiles
Asia stockpiles
THE DOLLAR
EFFECT
Negative correlation
oil prices vs. Dollar
value
Effect of US Federal
Reserve Policy
BALANCE
SUPPLY/DEMAND
2015: 2 MB/D
oversupply
OPEC
IRAN
USA
TECHNOLOGICAL
BREAKTHROUGHS
Shale Gas and
Shale Oil
revolution
New reserves
New generating
capacity
New paradigm
OIL PRICES
EXPLICATIVE FACTORS
GEOPOLITICAL
EFFECTS
OPEC policies
Consumers policies
Instability in key ol
producers
Terrorism attacks
SPECULATION in OIL
and COMMODITIES
MARKETS
OIL MARKET
CYCLES
CONTANGO cycle:
future prices higher
than today prices
Backwardation cycle:
today prices higher
than futures
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ENVIRONMENT
CAR FLEET
COAL
OIL
01-10-2015
Chinese Net
Oil Imports
Increment on Oil
Consumption
Domestic Coal
Production
World Coal
Consumption
Most Polluted
Cities in the world
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Risk of changes
of Central Bank
policies:
. Increase of interest
rates
. Abandon debt
purchase
. Less financing
available
Aggravation of
recession
sequels:
. Unemployment
. Loss of income
. Debt increase
HIGHER OIL
IMPORT BILL
Reduction of
available income
for families and
enterprises
Higher Production
Costs
HIGH OIL
PRICE
EFFECTS
in the
Economy
Higher
Commodity
prices
(more 95 billion
US$ for each 10 US$
/bbl increase In EU)
Aggravates fragile
recovery of world
economies
(average growth
3.3% in 2011 vs
3.9% in 2010)
01-10-2015
Accelerates
process of
transference of
wealth from
developed
countries to OPEC
producers (980 billlion US$ in 2008)
Hgher Inflation
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EFFECT OF SHALE
BOOM IN US
PRODUCTION DECLINE IN
SOME KEY COUNTRIES
Libya (less 80%)
Iran sanctions/violence (less 1.5
MB/D)
Nigeria violence/sabotage (less
0.3 MB/D)
Venezuela (underinvestment)
Political chaos: in total less 3.5
MB/D in production
01-10-2015
OIL PRICE
2011-2013
has been
STABLE
( most stable
period in
industry)
IMPACT ON WORLD
ENERGY TRADE
US oil imports 2005: 60% of
total consumption
US oil imports 2014: 28%
Most oil US used to import
now goes to Asia
Helped markets to be wellsupplied and prices immune
to turmoil
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30
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
BALANCE
Crude demand slowed
remarkably Q2 2014
Weak economic growth in
Europe and China
Raise in global inventories
IEA: global crude demand
slowed to below 500,000 B/D
First significant drop in last 2.5
years
OIL PRICE
DROP IN 2014
__________
Price of Brent
fall below 100
USD/bbl first
time last
years
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
AND SUPPLY
Geopolitical upheavals only in
Libya/Irak not affected significantly
production
Excess of oil in Atlantic Basin and
North Sea
European refineries cut back amid
weak margins
Structural changes in consumers
behaviour towards more efficient
technologies
MARKET STRUCTURE
Shift to Contango
(prices for future delivery
exceed spot prices)
Prompt agents to build stocks
Given volatility of situation in
the Middle East and North
Africa this is a benefit to
Global Energy Security
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Sheikhs v shale
Analysis
More complex situation
Saudi Arabia Role
Erosion of OPEC influence
No control on Non-OPEC
production
Iran in difficulties
Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria
need oil above 100 US$bbl to avoid
huge fiscal deficits
Undermine competitor advantages
including alternative energies
But economics of shale oil is very
flexible
Break-even: 57 to 65 US$/bbl
Based on wells
Investment one well: 1.5 M US$
Gain in productivity:
US economic pragmatism
In the long-term shale industry may
prevail
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Source: The Economist, 25-31 Oct 2014
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QUICK WINNERS
Large oil importing
countries
Motorists
Countries where car
is dominant and
lightly taxed
QUICK LOOSERS
Large oil exporting
countries
Large oil companies
Emerging countries
depending on
oil/commodity revenues
ARRAY OF POSSIBILITIES
FOR INVESTORS IS MORE
COMPLICATED
Oil prices feed into inflation
Affect actions of central
banks
Oil price spike in 2008 led
to a huge mistake in
monetary police by ECB
(raising rates on the eve of
a credit crisis)
IMPACT of OIL
PRICE DECLINE
on INVESTMENT
STRATEGIES
GS analysis
Brent at 84 US$/bbl
5% earnings growth for
S&P 500 stocks in 2014
and 8% in 2015
Brent 74 US$/bbl
More earnings up 1%
Brent at 114 US$/bbl
1% earnings growth (2014)
SHIFTS in OIL
BRING RISKS
Requires big shifts
in asset allocation
01-10-2015
EFFECT on STOCK
MARKET is COMPLEX
Information technology
Health care
Transportation stocks
(up 11% in 2014 MSCI)
Gambling groups
Manufactures
Large retailers
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OIL PRICES
Companies as beneficiaries?
MSCI index world energy
sector down 5.5% (2014)
while equities up 3%
Oil companies cut capex and
pay shareholders through
dividends and buybacks
Keep their share price
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Fonte: DGEG
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39
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Fonte: DGEG
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TRANSPORTES SO O PRINCIPAL
PROBLEMA ENERGTICO DO PAS
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IMAGEM TRMICA do
DESPERDCIO de ENERGIA
Washington, 2012
Estrada Congestionada
Veculos em filas lentas
S 15% da energia fornecida
pela gasolina utilizada
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TRANSPORTES: QUESTES
SOLUES
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PRODUCTION SOLUTION:
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Fracture Technology is responsible for
USA success in gas shales
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51
The IEA calculates that electricity prices for German industry have tripled since 2000
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Private Ownership
of the Land
Fosters dynamism
and individual
initiative
Avoids burocracy and
complication
DYNAMICS of US
ENERGY MARKETS
US ENERGY LAW
Promotes
Entrepreneurship
Role of small/medium
size Independent
Companies
Design mechanisms
Incentives
CREATIVITY/
/INNOVATION
SERVICE
COMPANIES
Drilling/Fracturing
Logging/Operations
Very active
Easy access
Ability to challenge
existing paradigms
Invent new concepts
SUCCESS FACTORS of US
SHALE GAS MODEL.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Can it be exported?
PRODUCTION
SYSTEM
Availability of
pipelines and
transmission/
distribution system
Easy access
Use based on a pay
tariff
No Monopolies
GEOLOGY
Huge basins with vast
resources
Ability to design
incentives to tap
resources
01-10-2015
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATIONS
Identity
environmental
impacts
Act through
regulation not
through prohibition
ACCESS to
FINANCING
Easy
Simplified
Supportive
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Source: BP
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FOOTPRINT CONCERNS
AIR:
LAND:
WATER:
Transparency in Operations
Regulatory Response
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R
I
V
E
R
S
APPLICATIONS
DECARBONIZATION OF ECONOMY
F
O
R
fuels
. May play key role in transition of
energy paradigm
F
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H
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V
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F
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DRIVERS
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Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030
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THE GASEIFICATION of
US ECONOMY
SECULAR DOWNTURN of US
FUEL CONSUMPTION
TECHNOLOGY IS
CHANGING THE WAY WE
LIVE, THE WAY WE WORK
AND THE WAY WE PLAY
EMERGING TRENDS in US
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Even so US DRIVERS reached
in 2012 4.8 trillion km (14 000
trips to the sun)
SHIFT in HABITS?
Car-pooling schemes more
popular in US
ZIPCAR more than 800,000 users
No car taxes, no parking fees, no
mechanics bill, no car
dependence
New generation with new vision?
The growing virtualization of life
and Internet shopping
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BUILDINGS
. Lighting 20% of world electricity
. LED / SSL
. Buildings: context
. Energetic Performance
. "Zero-Energy Homes"
- Micro-generation
Emerging Technologies:
Decarbonisation Economy
. Energy Efficiency
. Economic Competitiveness
. Security
. Environmental Sustainability
TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEMS
. Batteries and plug-in cars
. Electric vehicles
. Advanced biofuels
. Natural gas vehicles
. Evolving smart grids
. Advances in internal combustion
. Increasing fuel efficiency
. Advanced diesels
. New lighter materials
. Chemical Propulsion:
- Space Industry
NANOTECHNOLOGIES
. Production / Storage of Energy
. Energy Efficiency
. New techniques to process
hydrocarbons
01-10-2015
- Post-Combustion
- Pre-Combustion
- Oxy-Fuel
. Electricity 30% plus expensive
"CLEAN COAL" FutureGen (USA):
1st Integrated Central
- Electricity Production
+ Hydrogen with CO2 sequestration
. Coal Gasification: Conversion in
gas (H + OC)
. Hydrogen Production
. Renewables: Wind / Solar / Waves/
Geothermal / Biomass/
Nuclear Energy: 3rd and 4th
Generation
SMART GRIDS
. Producer / Consumer
. Decentralized and distributed
networks
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New Entrants
Services provided:
Demand response
Supply
Storage
Energy efficiency
Competitive Advantages
(the Internet Model
Algorithms
Sensors
Processing power
Good Marketing
PRESENT/FUTURE
PAST/PRESENT
Traditional Utilities
OLD MODEL
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TECHNOLOGICAL
BREAKTHROUGHS
ABUNDANT ENERGY
Cycle of low oil prices
Shale gas revolution: gas more abundant
and easier to trade
Gas reserves 2 to 3 times the
conventional; global gas market
Role of renewables
Solar renaissance
Resilience of supply
China effect on renewables: 2013
investment over 56 billion US$
Renewables energy became a serious
part of energy mix
World investment on renewables (2013)
214 billion US$ (53% for solar)
Costs of Solar: 75% reduction in 6 years
STORAGE
Getting cheaper and better
If intermittent energy can be stored
its economics drastically improved
Big advantage of storage: avoid most
inefficient part of power industry the generating capacity held in
reserve to meet peaks of demand
1 Mw storage replaces 10 Mw of
such generating capacity
Electrical batteries: GIGAFACTORY
approaching key benchmark 100
US$/Kwh
Close to grid parity
CAPITAL MARKETS
Understanding disruptive effect
of distributed and intermittent
generation combined with
cheaper storage and intelligent
consumption
Growth of a bond market to pay
for energy efficiency (40 billion
US$ in 2014)
Solar City (USA) Model
Price of oil fluctuates; solar is
bound to get cheaper
Business models for new energy
systems are proven and a wave
of money is breaking over the old
model
DISTRIBUTION
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Growing electrification
Decarbonization
Localization
Optimization
GROWTH
and
Electric/Thermal Generation
SUSTAINABILITY
Transportation systems
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THE NEED of a
PARADIGM SHIFT for
WORLD CITIES
01-10-2015
Water management
Energy management
Residuals treatment
New role of transport system based
on public transport + electric cars +
evaporation of traffic jams
New modes of access and
distribution of resources
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DATA SERVICES
Can change cities in
XXI century as much as
electricity did in last
century
GREATER AMOUNT
OF EASILY
AVAILABLE DATA
ERA OF MASS
URBANIZATION
Major opportunities
Major threats/risks
THE MULTIPLEXED
METROPOLIS
Cyberterrorism
Big data
Processing
Conversion into knowledge
Ubiquos data services
DANGERS ON FUTURE
CITIES
Wealth
Novelty
Human Interfaces
Data
Electronic panopticians
(everybody is watched)
TRANSPORT SECTOR
Major changes
Serendipity at risk
Automation
Self-driving cars
IT protection
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decisions
Renewal energy policy uncertainty
TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
Uncertain political commitment
to technological incentives
Policy change undermining the
viability of investment
New technology revolution may
change all aspects of energy
services from sources to
storage
Impact on user-technologies
(light/vehicles/electric motors)
Impact on investment structure
ENERGY
COMPANIES
in the
FUTURE
OPERATIONAL
and
SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
Future demand uncertainties
Fuel and electricity supply
disruptions
Infrastructure failure in changing
climatic conditions
Transition to cleaner technologies
making infrastructure obsolete
Cyber threats to smart grids
REPUTATIONAL RISKS
Environment pollution and liabilities
Delivery of services compromised by energy
disruptions
Increasing control on emissions performance
standards
Cost and stability of services
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OBRIGADO
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