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of the Chernobyl plant, which is near the city of Pripyat and in proximity to th
e administrative border with Belarus and the Dnieper River. There was a sudden a
nd unexpected power surge, and when an emergency shutdown was attempted, an expo
nentially larger spike in power output occurred, which led to a reactor vessel r
upture and a series of steam explosions. These events exposed the graphite moder
ator of the reactor to air, causing it to ignite.[4] The resulting fire sent a p
lume of highly radioactive fallout into the atmosphere and over an extensive geo
graphical area, including Pripyat. The plume drifted over large parts of the wes
tern Soviet Union and Europe. From 1986 to 2000, 350,400 people were evacuated a
nd resettled from the most severely contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia, and U
kraine.[5][6] According to official post-Soviet data,[7][8] about 60% of the fal
lout landed in Belarus.
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus have been burdened with the continuing and substant
ial decontamination and health care costs of the Chernobyl accident. A report by
the International Atomic Energy Agency examines the environmental consequences
of the accident.[8] Another UN agency, UNSCEAR, has estimated a global collectiv
e dose of radiation exposure from the accident "equivalent on average to 21 addi
tional days of world exposure to natural background radiation"; individual doses
were far higher than the global mean among those most exposed, including 530,00
0 local recovery workers who averaged an effective dose equivalent to an extra 5
0 years of typical natural background radiation exposure each.[9][10][11] Estima
tes of the number of deaths that will eventually result from the accident vary e
normously; disparities reflect both the lack of solid scientific data and the di
fferent methodologies used to quantify mortality whether the discussion is confine
d to specific geographical areas or extends worldwide, and whether the deaths ar
e immediate, short term, or long term.
Thirty-one deaths are directly attributed to the accident, all among the reactor
staff and emergency workers.[12] An UNSCEAR report places the total confirmed d
eaths from radiation at 64 as of 2008. The Chernobyl Forum predicts the eventual
death toll could reach 4,000 among those exposed to the highest levels of radia
tion (200,000 emergency workers, 116,000 evacuees and 270,000 residents of the m
ost contaminated areas); this figure is a total causal death toll prediction, co
mbining the deaths of approximately 50 emergency workers who died soon after the
accident from acute radiation syndrome, nine children who have died of thyroid
cancer and a future predicted total of 3940 deaths from radiation-induced cancer
and leukemia.[13]
In a peer-reviewed publication in the International Journal of Cancer in 2006, t
he authors (following a different conclusion methodology to the Chernobyl Forum
study, which arrived at the total predicted death toll of 4,000 after cancer sur
vival rates were factored in) stated, without entering into a discussion on deat
hs, that in terms of total excess cancers attributed to the accident:[14]
The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1000 ca
ses of thyroid cancer and 4000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing ab
out 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident. Models predict that by 206
5 about 16,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 cases of other cancers may be
expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million can
cer cases are expected from other causes.
Also based upon extrapolations from the linear no-threshold model of radiation i
nduced damage, down to zero, the Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that, a
mong the hundreds of millions of people living in broader geographical areas, th
ere will be 50,000 excess cancer cases resulting in 25,000 excess cancer deaths.
[15]
For this broader group, the 2006 TORCH report, commissioned by the European Gree
riment continued. As part of the test plan, extra water pumps were activated at
01:05 on 26 April, increasing the water flow. The increased coolant flow rate th
rough the reactor produced an increase in the inlet coolant temperature of the r
eactor core (the coolant no longer having sufficient time to release its heat in
the turbine and cooling towers), which now more closely approached the nucleate
boiling temperature of water, reducing the safety margin.
The flow exceeded the allowed limit at 01:19, triggering an alarm of low steam p
ressure in the steam separators. At the same time, the extra water flow lowered
the overall core temperature and reduced the existing steam voids in the core an
d the steam separators.[37] Since water weakly absorbs neutrons (and the higher
density of liquid water makes it a better absorber than steam), turning on addit
ional pumps decreased the reactor power further still. The crew responded by tur
ning off two of the circulation pumps to reduce feedwater flow, in an effort to
increase steam pressure, and also to remove more manual control rods to maintain
power.[31][38]
All these actions led to an extremely unstable reactor configuration. Nearly all
of the control rods were removed manually, including all but 18 of the "fail-sa
fe" manually operated rods of the minimal 28 which were intended to remain fully
inserted to control the reactor even in the event of a loss of coolant, out of
a total 211 control rods.[39] While the emergency SCRAM system that would insert
all control rods to shut down the reactor could still be activated manually (th
rough the "AZ-5" button), the automated system that could do the same had been d
isabled to maintain the power level, and many other automated and even passive s
afety features of the reactor had been bypassed. Further, the reactor coolant pu
mping had been reduced, which had limited margin so any power excursion would pr
oduce boiling, thereby reducing neutron absorption by the water. The reactor was
in an unstable configuration that was clearly outside the safe operating envelo
pe established by the designers. If anything pushed it into supercriticality, it
was unable to recover automatically.
Experiment and explosion
Aerial view of the damaged core on 3 May 1986. Roof of the turbine hall is damag
ed (image center). Roof of the adjacent reactor 3 (image lower left) shows minor
fire damage.
At 1:23:04 a.m., the experiment began. Four of the Main Circulating Pumps (MCP)
were active; of the eight total, six are normally active during regular operatio
n. The steam to the turbines was shut off, beginning a run-down of the turbine g
enerator. The diesel generators started and sequentially picked up loads; the ge
nerators were to have completely picked up the MCPs' power needs by 01:23:43. In
the interim, the power for the MCPs was to be supplied by the turbine generator
as it coasted down. As the momentum of the turbine generator decreased, however
, so did the power it produced for the pumps. The water flow rate decreased, lea
ding to increased formation of steam voids (bubbles) in the core.
Because of the positive void coefficient of the RBMK reactor at low reactor powe
r levels, it was now primed to embark on a positive feedback loop, in which the
formation of steam voids reduced the ability of the liquid water coolant to abso
rb neutrons, which in turn increased the reactor's power output. This caused yet
more water to flash into steam, giving yet a further power increase. During alm
ost the entire period of the experiment the automatic control system successfull
y counteracted this positive f