This file was prepared for use in FIN237, Security Analysis, Mike McKay, Spring 2016.

All rights reserv

Students should focus on the worksheet tab "BECN Revenue Data". That includes 10 years of historic
It also contains important secondary source information on volume and price trends for residential and
The remaining tabs in the file are reference data that is summarized in the BECN Revenue Data tab. S

g 2016. All rights reserved

udes 10 years of historical revenue and price data for Beacon Roofing
trends for residential and non-residential construction markets
ECN Revenue Data tab. Students should not need to access that material directly.

Beacon Roofing
Fiscal Year ending September 30

Net Sales (millions)

2005
$851

note: figures may not match due to rounding

Residential (millions)
Non-Residential (millions)
Complementary (millions)
price inflation
residential
non-residential
Complementary
Average Price Inflation
existing market increase (millions)
acquired sales increase (millions)
price adjusted Existing Market increase:
US Housing starts (thousands)
% change in housing starts
Non-Res Contruction Spending (billions)
Non-Res Price Deflator
Non-Res Construction adjusted

2,051
$477
86.2
$552.61

2006
$1,501

2007
$1,646

$732
$448
$321

$692
$606
$348

6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
$111
$539
$104.62

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
($49)
$195
($49.40)

1,920
-6.4%
$531
92.4
$573.85

1,441
-25.0%
$619
95.2
$650.12

2008
$1,784

2009
$1,734

2010
$1,610

2011
$1,817

2012
$2,044

2013
$2,241

2014
$2,327

2015
$2,515

$758
$724
$302

$897
$600
$237

$746
$621
$243

$850
$718
$249

$1,024
$758
$262

$1,101
$823
$317

$1,109
$876
$342

$1,236
$883
$396

note: this was "2.1% above trend".

2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
4.0%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.5%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.5%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.0%
$19
($51)
($150)
$147
$119
$0
$26
$61
$18.89 ($46.46) ($150.30) $139.27

1.0%
8.5%
3.5%
4.3%
$113
$113
$108.10

0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
1.0%
$23
$174
$22.47

-2.7%
-1.1%
0.0%
-1.3%
$62
$24
$62.99

-2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
-0.2%
$102
$86
$102.47

727
25.4%
$571
102.3
$557.99

898
23.4%
$561
103.8
$540.76

992
10.5%
$597
106.6
$559.72

1091.5
10.0%
$658
109.9
$598.52

1,025
-28.9%
$705
102.8
$685.94

584
-43.0%
$680
99.8
$681.63

591
1.1%
$566
97.8
$578.56

580
-1.8%
$534
98.9
$539.54

Net Sales (millions)

2005
$851
2006
$1,501
2007
$1,646
2008
$1,784
2009
$1,734
2010
$1,610
2011
$1,817
2012
$2,044
2013
$2,241
2014
$2,327
2015
$2,515
2.5%

New privately owned housing units started

All Non-Res $$ put in place
from PPI, US Government

note

ResidentialNon-Residen
Complementary (milliprice residential non-residenComplementary
$732
$692
$758
$897
$746
$850
$1,024
$1,101
$1,109
$1,236

$448
$606
$724
$600
$621
$718
$758
$823
$876
$883

$321
$348
$302
$237
$243
$249
$262
$317
$342
$396

note:

6.0%
0.0%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
4.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-2.7%
-2.5%

6.0%
0.0%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.5%
8.5%
0.0%
-1.1%
0.0%

6.0%
0.0%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.5%
3.5%
3.0%
0.0%
2.0%

6.0%
0.0%
2.1%
8.0%
0.0%
5.0%
4.3%
1.0%
-1.3%
-0.2%

existing maacquired saprice adjusted increasUS Housing%

2,051
$111
$539 $104.62
1,920
($49)
$195 ($49.40)
1,441
$19
$119
$18.89
1,025
($51)
$0 ($46.46)
584
($150)
$26 ($150.30)
591
$147
$61 $139.27
580
$113
$113 $108.10
727
$23
$174
$22.47
898
$62
$24
$62.99
992
$102
$86 $102.47
1091.5

change in
Non-Res Con
Non-Res Pri
$477
86.2
-6.4%
$531
92.4
-25.0%
$619
95.2
-28.9%
$705
102.8
-43.0%
$680
99.8
1.1%
$566
97.8
-1.8%
$534
98.9
25.4%
$571
102.3
23.4%
$561
103.8
10.5%
$597
106.6
10.0%
$658
109.9

Non-Res Construction adjusted

$552.61
$573.85
$650.12
$685.94
$681.63
$578.56
$539.54
$557.99
$540.76
$559.72
$598.73

U.S. Census Bureau

Source: Construction Spending
Annual Rate for Nonresidential: U.S. Total
Seasonally Adjusted Total Construction [Millions of Dollars]
Period: 2002 to 2015
Data Extracted on: January 6, 2015 (11:21 am)
Period

Jan-2002
Feb-2002
Mar-2002
Apr-2002
May-2002
Jun-2002
Jul-2002
Aug-2002
Sep-2002
Oct-2002
Nov-2002
Dec-2002
Jan-2003
Feb-2003
Mar-2003
Apr-2003
May-2003
Jun-2003
Jul-2003
Aug-2003
Sep-2003
Oct-2003
Nov-2003
Dec-2003
Jan-2004
Feb-2004
Mar-2004
Apr-2004
May-2004
Jun-2004
Jul-2004
Aug-2004
Sep-2004
Oct-2004
Nov-2004

Value

475,704
470,946
453,504
453,776
451,789
439,777
437,034
434,698
432,040
437,702
437,914
439,165
440,816
436,519
432,969
433,996
440,570
444,683
437,224
443,163
447,628
450,477
435,494
439,815
434,867
432,730
449,328
449,690
446,200
449,728
457,154
456,204
459,706
459,293
467,050

Dec-2004
Jan-2005
Feb-2005
Mar-2005
Apr-2005
May-2005
Jun-2005
Jul-2005
Aug-2005
Sep-2005
Oct-2005
Nov-2005
Dec-2005
Jan-2006
Feb-2006
Mar-2006
Apr-2006
May-2006
Jun-2006
Jul-2006
Aug-2006
Sep-2006
Oct-2006
Nov-2006
Dec-2006
Jan-2007
Feb-2007
Mar-2007
Apr-2007
May-2007
Jun-2007
Jul-2007
Aug-2007
Sep-2007
Oct-2007
Nov-2007
Dec-2007
Jan-2008
Feb-2008
Mar-2008
Apr-2008
May-2008
Jun-2008
Jul-2008
Aug-2008

465,609
464,914
472,845
474,543
477,037
484,170
483,170
484,528
489,660
495,687
496,421
501,333
508,540
514,379
521,157
530,712
536,398
540,532
550,909
553,906
555,719
556,000
555,162
566,451
583,666
593,821
600,773
611,969
619,841
640,082
649,987
651,962
670,260
685,585
697,446
693,764
691,443
701,465
703,545
705,622
708,748
712,307
708,203
714,369
709,631

Sep-2008
Oct-2008
Nov-2008
Dec-2008
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011
Jan-2012
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
May-2012

711,378
719,495
714,390
698,121
683,052
695,544
701,425
681,444
676,002
667,626
658,954
640,671
624,874
608,151
593,816
578,227
554,834
548,827
555,633
563,877
563,233
565,331
545,989
552,814
558,141
553,797
552,523
540,998
506,791
508,976
518,707
517,105
524,586
544,259
538,781
548,384
551,086
548,215
553,635
561,456
567,241
568,161
571,468
573,386
584,148

Jun-2012
Jul-2012
Aug-2012
Sep-2012
Oct-2012
Nov-2012
Dec-2012
Jan-2013
Feb-2013
Mar-2013
Apr-2013
May-2013
Jun-2013
Jul-2013
Aug-2013
Sep-2013
Oct-2013
Nov-2013
Dec-2013
Jan-2014
Feb-2014
Mar-2014
Apr-2014
May-2014
Jun-2014
Jul-2014
Aug-2014
Sep-2014
Oct-2014
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
Jul-2015
Aug-2015
Sep-2015
Oct-2015
Nov-2015
Dec-2015

588,698
583,801
577,335
575,081
574,609
567,098
564,083
546,934
553,235
542,752
554,243
560,254
562,840
568,725
569,595
571,917
586,653
592,378
591,876
585,740
584,754
584,191
594,547
610,999
601,179
605,719
609,658
614,531
622,967
616,964
628795
625218
626814
642471
671295
688688
691761
691677
694400
691511
693727
688096
NA

note: get the "revised data" from the "value of construction put in place" data

https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html

of Dollars]

2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008

10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5

new data old

84.205
84.095
83.655
84.645
85.36
86.35
86.735
86.57
87.175
87.89
88.385
89.76
91.025
89.485
89.815
90.915
90.805
91.63
93.005
93.83
94.545
94.985
95.37
93.94
93.28
93.225
93.445
93.335
93.885
94.93
95.975
96.745
96.855
97.46
96.69
96.965
96.965
98.395
97.955
98.615
99.165
101.145
102.685
104.995

data
153.1
152.9
152.1
153.9
155.2
157
157.7
157.4
158.5
159.8
160.7
163.2
165.5
162.7
163.3
165.3
165.1
166.6
169.1
170.6
171.9
172.7
173.4
170.8
169.6
169.5
169.9
169.7
170.7
172.6
174.5
175.9
176.1
177.2
175.8
176.3
176.3
178.9
178.1
179.3
180.3
183.9
186.7
190.9

2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801

2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011

M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
100.0
98.1
97.9
97.6
97.8
97.7
97.6
97.8
97.8
97.6
97.9
97.9
97.8
97.9
97.8
97.8
98.2
98.1
98.1
97.9
98.6
98.5
98.6
99.4
99.4
99.4
100.5
100.6
100.5
102.0
102.1
102.0
100.1

106.81
108.955
108.46
108.9
105.875
102.575
100.1
100.1
99.055
98.395
98.615
99.055
100
98.1
97.9
97.6
97.8
97.7
97.6
97.8
97.8
97.6
97.9
97.9
97.8
97.9
97.8
97.8
98.2
98.1
98.1
97.9
98.6
98.5
98.6
99.4
99.4
99.4
100.5
100.6
100.5
102
102.1
102
100.1

194.2
198.1
197.2
198
192.5
186.5
182
182
180.1
178.9
179.3
180.1
181.5
180.3
182.4
181.8
181.4
182.6
182.6
184.7
184.3
186.7
188.5
189.6
188.4

WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801
WPU801

2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014

M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11

2014 M12
2015 m01
2015 m02
2015 m03
2015 m04
2015 m05
2015 m06
2015 m07

102.7
102.7
102.8
103.3
103.3
103.3
103.3
103.4
103.3
103.5
103.5
103.5
103.2
104.0
104.0
103.9
104.4
104.5
104.5
105.1
105.1
105.3
106.7
106.8
106.9
105.1
107.5
107.6
107.6
107.9
108.0
108.1
108.4
108.6
108.6
109.1
109.1

p
p
p
p

109.2
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.7
109.8
109.8
110.4

102.7
102.7
102.8
103.3
103.3
103.3
103.3
103.4
103.3
103.5
103.5
103.5
103.2
104
104
103.9
104.4
104.5
104.5
105.1
105.1
105.3
106.7
106.8
106.9
105.1
107.5
107.6
107.6
107.9
108
108.1
108.4
108.6
108.6

2015 m08
2015 m09

Non Residential Building Data Series

NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M01
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M02
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M03
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M04
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M05
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M06
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M07
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M08
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M09
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M10
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M11
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M12
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2003 M13
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M01
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M02
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M03
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M04
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M05
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M06
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M07
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M08
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M09
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M10
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M11
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M12
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2004 M13
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M01
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M02
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M03
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M04
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M05
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M06
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M07
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M08
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M09
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M10
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M11
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M12
NDUBBLD--BBLD-2005 M13

110.5
110.4

136.2
136.6
136.8
136.8
136.9
137.0
137.5
137.8
138.8
138.9
139.2
139.1
137.6
140.5
142.0
144.0
146.3
148.2
148.4
149.2
150.8
151.7
153.1
152.9
152.1
148.3
153.9
155.2
157.0
157.7
157.4
158.5
159.8
160.7
163.2
165.5
162.7
163.3
159.6

153.1
152.9
152.1
148.3
153.9
155.2
157
157.7
157.4
158.5
159.8
160.7
163.2
165.5
162.7
163.3
159.6

NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD--

2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009

M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06
M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05
M06

165.3
165.1
166.6
169.1
170.6
171.9
172.7
173.4
170.8
169.6
169.5
169.9
169.6
169.7
170.7
172.6
174.5
175.9
176.1
177.2
175.8
176.3
176.3
178.9
178.1
175.2
179.3
180.3
183.9
186.7
190.9
194.2
198.1
197.2
198.0
192.5
186.5
182.0
189.1
182.0
180.1
178.9
179.3
180.1
181.5

165.3
165.1
166.6
169.1
170.6
171.9
172.7
173.4
170.8
169.6
169.5
169.9
169.6
169.7
170.7
172.6
174.5
175.9
176.1
177.2
175.8
176.3
176.3
178.9
178.1
175.2
179.3
180.3
183.9
186.7
190.9
194.2
198.1
197.2
198
192.5
186.5
182
189.1
182
180.1
178.9
179.3
180.1
181.5

NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD-NDUBBLD--BBLD--

2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010

M07
M08
M09
M10
M11
M12
M13
M01
M02
M03
M04
M05

180.3
182.4
181.8
181.4
182.6
182.6
181.1
184.7
184.3
186.7
188.5
189.6

NDUBBLD--BBLD--

2010

M06

188.4

180.3
182.4
181.8
181.4
182.6
182.6
181.1
184.7
184.3
186.7
188.5
189.6
188.4

0.550964
0.544093
0.536732
0.536854
0.53914
0.535049
0.534502
0.529507
0.530657
0.522764
0.519363
0.51635
0.519108

Exhibit 1
Net Sales (millions)
Existing Market Increase
BECN Sales
2005
$851
$851
2006
$1,501
$111
$962
2007
$1,646
($49)
$1,452
2008
$1,784
$19
$1,665
2009
$1,734
($51)
$1,734
2010
$1,610
($150)
$1,584
2011
$1,817
$147
$1,757
2012
$2,044
$113
$1,930
2013
$2,241
$23
$2,067
2014
$2,327
$62
$2,303
2015
$2,515
$102
$2,429
2016
2017

Organic Growth Rate o

50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
Organicc Growth Rate
10.00%

f(x) = - 0.0175773342x + 0.20774515

R = 0.166685065

0.00%
2006
-10.00%

2007

2008

2009

2010

-20.00%

Year
Column F

Linear (Column

Price Adjusted Sales

Organic Sales Growth
US Housing starts (thousands)
$
799.9
2,051
$
962.3
18.48%
1,920
$
1,421.1
38.99%
1,441
$
1,532.1
7.52%
1,025
$
1,733.5
12.35%
684
$
1,504.5
-14.17%
591
$
1,680.5
11.06%
580
$
1,910.7
12.84%
727
$
2,092.9
9.11%
898
$
2,307.0
9.74%
992
$
2,429.0
5.15%
1091.5

Organic Growth Rate of Sales

00%

00%

00%

00%

00%

f(x) = - 0.0175773342x + 0.2077451585

R = 0.166685065

00%
2006
00%

2007

2008

2009

2010

00%
Year
Column F

Linear (Column F)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Price Adjusted Non-Res. Construction

$553
$574
$650
$686
$682
$579
$540
$558
$541
$560
$599

Property Damage By Disasters

$450
1250
750
650
1400
900
400
2400
1250
1400
2000

Re-Roofing Demand Generated

Housing Starts Growth Rate

$121.50
$337.50
$202.50
$175.50
$378.00
$243.00
$108.00
$648.00
$337.50
$378.00
$540.00

-6.59%
-28.72%
-34.04%
-40.45%
-14.70%
-1.85%
22.66%
21.05%
10.00%
9.57%

Non-Res. Growth Rate

Re-Roofing Growth by disasters

3.77%
12.48%
5.36%
-0.63%
-16.39%
-6.98%
3.36%
-3.14%
3.45%
6.74%

102.17%
-51.08%
-14.31%
76.73%
-44.18%
-81.09%
179.18%
-65.23%
11.33%
35.67%

Exhibit 2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.7997095375
0.6395353443
0.4593030164
0.0958489498
10

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Housing Starts Growth Rate
Non Res. Growth Rate
Re-Roofing Growth Rate by disasters

3
6
9

SS
0.0977975176
0.0551221271
0.1529196446

Coefficients
0.1008152156
-0.0515925008
1.3185412227
-0.0239196298

Standard Error
0.032437827
0.1445672061
0.4194836355
0.0410215229

Predicted Y
0.1295172463
0.2923978173
0.1925024181
0.0950190836
-0.0971853225
0.0290945416
0.0905865502
0.0642161874
0.1383845336
0.1761651485

Residuals
0.0552722812
0.0974739692
-0.1173214995
0.0284997241
-0.0444865765
0.0815147349
0.0378032532
0.0268543933
-0.0409600418
-0.1246502382

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

MS
F
Significance F
0.0325991725 3.548394 0.0874205025
0.0091870212

t Stat
3.1079521925
-0.3568755474
3.1432482967
-0.5830995077

Standard Residuals
0.7062617076
1.2455091491
-1.4991181977
0.3641656063
-0.5684434366
1.0415842193
0.4830448388
0.3431417925
-0.5233818543
-1.5927638251

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
0.020903 0.0214427122 0.1801877189 0.0214427122
0.733401 -0.4053357106 0.302150709 -0.4053357106
0.019985 0.2921017437 2.3449807017 0.2921017437
0.581065 -0.1242956803 0.0764564207 -0.1242956803

Upper 95.0%
0.1801877189
0.302150709
2.3449807017
0.0764564207

Exhibit 3
2005 Average Price Inflation
2006
6.00%
2007
0.00%
2008
2.10%
2009
8.00%
2010
0.00%
2011
5.00%
2012
4.33%
2013
1.00%
2014
-1.27%
2015
-0.17%

Commodity Prices
118.3
120.76
134.94
172.37
120.72
152.31
192.41
186.26
183.34
171.84
111.19

Growth Commodity Prices

2.06%
11.10%
24.48%
-35.62%
23.24%
23.37%
-3.25%
-1.58%
-6.48%
-43.53%

Targeting a 2% Economic Inflation, and a -1.0% Growth in commodity prices.

Forecasted Price Inflation for 2016 and 2017:

2.101%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Macro-economic Inflation
2.50%
4.10%
0.10%
2.70%
1.50%
3.00%
1.70%
1.50%
0.80%
0.70%

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.4208025551
0.1770747904
-0.0580466981
0.0322226084
10

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
7
9

Intercept
Growth Commodity Prices
Macro-economic Inflation

Coefficients
0.0055849012
-0.0238662809
1.0358692267

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation

Predicted Average Price Inflation

1
0.030990432
2
0.0454057826
3
0.0007779924
4
0.042053812
5
0.0155753634
6
0.0310831754
7
0.0239699734
8
0.0215000554
9
0.0154178779
10
0.0232255355

SS
MS
F
Significance F
0.0015639245 0.000782 0.7531204041 0.5055467045
0.0072680755 0.001038
0.008832
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
0.0194698385 0.286849 0.7825328797
-0.040453951 0.0516237535
0.0457493125 -0.521675 0.6179907969 -0.1320462147 0.084313653
0.8900699094 1.163807 0.2826318652 -1.0688116667 3.1405501202

Residuals Standard Residuals

0.029009568 1.020829
-0.0454057826 -1.597801
0.0202220076
0.7116
0.037946188 1.335303
-0.0155753634 -0.548087
0.0189168246 0.665671
0.0193633599 0.681385
-0.0115000554 -0.40468
-0.0280845446 -0.988278
-0.0248922021 -0.875941

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-0.040453951 0.0516237535
-0.1320462147 0.084313653
-1.0688116667 3.1405501202

Exhibit 4
Revenue is a function of three entities: Organic Growth, Price Inflation and Acqisitions.
Year

Organic Growth Rate

Price Inflation
2006
18.48%
6.00%
2007
38.99%
0.00%
2008
7.52%
2.10%
2009
12.35%
8.00%
2010
-14.17%
0.00%
2011
11.06%
5.00%
2012
12.84%
4.33%
2013
9.11%
1.00%
2014
9.74%
-1.27%
2015
5.15%
-0.17%

Revenue Revenue Growth

$1,501
56.75%
$1,646
9.22%
$1,784
8.05%
$1,734
-2.84%
$1,610
-7.42%
$1,817
12.10%
$2,044
11.77%
$2,241
9.20%
$2,327
3.77%
$2,515
7.77%

Targeting a 2% Economic Inflation, and a -1.0% Growth in commodity prices.

Price Inflation:
2.10%
Assuming a 5% Organic Growth rate as projected by firm and by Regression Model.
Organic Growth Rate:
5.00%
Revenue Forecast:

7.40%

Assuming Acquisitions Growth:

(millions)
2016
$1,100 (RSG's 2014 Revenue)
2017
$39
Forecasted Total Revenue:
2016
$3,801.22
2017
$4,121.67

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.494350735
0.2443826492
0.0284919775
0.1708186774
10

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Organic Growth Rate
Price Inflation

2
7
9

SS
0.0660597911
0.2042531437
0.2703129349

Coefficients
0.0150261563
0.4481701119
1.7422906121

Standard Error
0.082256454
0.4417327294
1.8380684839

Predicted Revenue Growth

0.2023807362
0.1897550384
0.0853080998
0.2097668431
-0.0484669546
0.1517124587
0.1480658887
0.0732641747
0.0366198872
0.0352097817

Residuals
0.3650939669
-0.0975384888
-0.0047981679
-0.2381939989
-0.0257297448
-0.0307598483
-0.0303440058
0.0187493478
0.0010378023
0.0424831375

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

MS
F
Significance F
0.0330298956 1.131974 0.3750219834
0.0291790205

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
0.1826744957 0.860231 -0.1794794497 0.2095317622
1.0145730259 0.344087 -0.5963618128 1.4927020365
0.9478921092 0.374751 -2.6040507011 6.0886319253

Standard Residuals
2.4234916976
-0.64745994
-0.0318502114
-1.5811304242
-0.1707939011
-0.2041836996
-0.2014233395
0.1244580649
0.0068889256
0.2820028278

Lower 95.0%
-0.1794794497
-0.5963618128
-2.6040507011

Upper 95.0%
0.2095317622
1.4927020365
6.0886319253