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RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (NOTES MAIL)

CREATOR:Delachesnaye.Francisco@epamail.epa.gov Delachesnaye.Francisco@epamail.epa.

CREATION DATE!TIME:28-FEB-2002 14:52:47.00

SUBJECT:: Re: GHG Projection Worksheet

To:William A. Pizer ( CN=William A. Pizer!OU=CEA!O=EOP@EOP [ CEA 1 )

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TEXT:
Billy (and others),

Attached are our comments and changes. Essentially they are the
following:

Changed row labeled "EPA Forecasts" to "Alternative Reference Case".

For this case, we referenced currently available data: EIA for
energy-related C02, the Climate Action Report (National Communication)
for non-energy related C02 and the Adjustments, and EPA for
..' business-as-usual (BAU) non-C02 greenhouse gases. We interpolated
estimates consistent with your spreadsheet.

In the EIA Reference Case, changed the row labeled "Other Carbon and
GHGs" to "Other GHGs" since it seems that those projections do not
include the non-energy related C02.
It is also important to keep in mind that the data in the Climate Action
Report, the Inventory of US GHG Emissions and sinks, and in the EPA BAU

'10:ll/Q 009006
 Page 2 of22

1 projections are all calculated using the required 100-yr global warming
'lpotentials. That is, those from the 1995 IPCC SAR.
r
I

._--
iFinally, I updated the notes and provided all the necessary links,
\

Let if know if you have any questions or need additional information.

Paco

(See attached file: reconciliation_EPA. xIs)

***************************************************************************
*
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye
Lead Economist
Non-C02 GHG & Sequestration
U.S. EPA
T +1 202-564-0172; F +1 202-565--2254
delachesnaye.francisco@epamail.epa.gov
www.epa.gov/ghginfo

Mailing Address: Visiting

Address:
u.s. EPA MC (6202J) 501 3rd St, NW
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
Washington, DC 20460
- reconciliation EPA.xls~~==~===============ATTACHMENT 1 ==========~=========

ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00

TEXT:
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_CEQ 009007
 Summary of Forecasts Used to Quantify President's Xntensity Goal 1//(1'fJ ~ a~/ (j)
(yellow highlights values presented in the Global Cli1T1ate Change Policy Book at
hllp:/lWNW.whitehouse.gov/newslreleasesI2002l02lclimatechange.hlml)

2012 Emission
Intensity Reductions under
Decline President's Goal
2002-2012 (MMTCE)

President's Goal 18\

EIA Reference case 14% 115

(basis of Administration analysis)
Alternative Reference Case 13% 123
National Communication 15% 89

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EIA Reference Case
Emissions (million metric tons carbon equivalent)
Energy-Related Garbon Dioxide (1) 1517 1562 1561 1584 1631 1662 1694 1724 1756 1781 1807 1835 1865 1892
Other 2arb€ri",- ar:d GHGs (2) 324 320 323 328 338 343 347 356 361 368 376 375 382 390
Greenhouse'Gas Total 1841 1882 1884 1912 1969 2005 2041 2080 2117 2149 2183 2210 2247 2282
US GOP (billion 1996 dollars) (3) 8857 9224 9319 9523 9826 10103 10418 10719 11046 11442 11867 12312 12777 13166
US GOP (billion 2001 dollars) (4) 9726 10130 10234 10458 10791 11095 11442 11771 12131 12565 13032 13521 14032 14459
G~G Intensity 189 186 184 '83 '182 181 178 177 174 171 167 163 160 158
(metric tons of carbon eqUivalent per million dollars GOP)

Alternate Reference Case

Energy-Related Garbon Dioxide (1) 1562 1561 1584 1631 1662 1694 1724 1756 1781 1807 1835 1865 1892
Non-energy Carbon Dioxide (5) 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 39 39 40 40 40
Non-C02 GHGs (6) 316 323 331 339 347 354 360 367 373 379 385 393 401
Adjustments (5) -16 -16 -16 -16 ·16 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16 -16
Greenhouse Gas Total 1897 1904 1935 1991 2030 2070 2107 2145 2176 2208 2243 2282 2318
GHG Intensity 187 186 185 185 183 181 179 177 173 169 166 163 160

Nationa1 Communication Forecast w/Heasures

Eetimatee of Non-energy Carbon and Other GHGe 342 346 350 354 358 363 366 369 372 375 379 384 390
Greenhouse Gas Total 1903 1907 1934 1985 2021 2056 2090 2125 2153 2182 2213 2249 2282
GHG Intensity 188 186 185 184 182 180 178 175 171 167 164 160 158

Notes:
(1) http://WNW.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeotab_19.htm
(2) EIA staff calculations using emission inventories from [LINK TO 1999 INVENTORY] and growth rates described in (6)
(3) hllp:/lwv.w.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeotab_20.htm
(4) converted using implicit price Index for GOP (2001:111) from National Income and Product Accounts, Table 7.1
(5) Climate Action Report 2001, Chap 5. Table 5-2.
(6) USEPA Business-as-Usual Projections of non-eO, Greenhouse Gases. Values between 2001-2004, 2006-2009. and 2011·2012 are Interpolated.
See attached detail and also
All 2000 data are from USEPA (2002). Draft Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000. See hllp:/lWNW.epa.gov/globalwarmlng/publicationslemissions/us2002Jindex.hlml
Methane projections are from USEPA (2001). Addendum to the U.S. Methane Emissions 1990-2020: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities for Reductions. See hltp:llWNW.epa.gov/ghginfo
Nitrous Oxide projections are from the Climate Action Report 2001, Chap 5. See http://WNW.epa.gov/globalwanning/publications/carlindex.hbnl
High-GWP Emissions are from USEPA (2002). Draft International Cost Analysis of High GWP Gas Abatement Options. See hllp:llwNw.epa.gov/ghglnfo
(7) Table 5-2 excluding sinks. Values between 2001-2004, 2006-2009. and 2011-2012 interpolated using a constant growth trend
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 US EPA Non-C02 GHG Buslness-As-Usual Emission Projections: 2000 to 2020

All data In MMTCE

GHG and Sectors 2000 (1) 2005 2010 2015 2020 Gro~h'00~2(

METHANE Emissions (2) 167 176 178 177 174 5%

NITROUS OXIDE Emissions (3) 116 122 127 132 137 19%
HIGH·GWP GAS (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) Emissions ( 33 56 81 116 165 398%

TOTAL ALL GHG EmissIons 316 354 385 425 476 51%

Data Sources:
(1) All 2000 data are from USEPA (2002). Draft Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000.
http:tlvfflw.epa.govtglobalwarmingtpublications/emissions/us2002tindex.html
(2) Methane projections are from USEPA (2001). Addendum to the U.S. Methane Emissions 1990-2020: Inventorie~
Projections. and Opportunities for Reductions. See http://www.epa.gov/ghginfo
(3) f'Jitrous Oxide projections are from the Climate Action Report 2001, Chap 5. See
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarmingtpublicationstcarlindex.html
(4) High-GWP Emissions are from USEPA (2002). Draft International Cost Analysis of High GWP Gas Abatement (
See http:t(www.epa.govtghginfo

Contact: Francisco de la Chesnaye, USEPA. Email: delachesnaye.francisco@epa.gov. Tel 202-564-0172.

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 Summary of Vorocasts Used to Quantify President's Intensity Goal

(yellow highlights values presented in the Global Climate Change Policy Book at
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002l02lclimatechange.htInl)

2012 Emission
Intensity Reductions under
Decline President's Goal
2002-2012 (MMTCE)

President's Goal le~

EIA Reference Case 14% 115

(basis of Administration analysis)
EPA Forecasts 13% 128
National Communication 15% 89

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EIA Reference Case

Emissions (million metric tons carbon equivalent)

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide (1) 1517 1562 1561 1584 1631 1662 1694 1724 1756 1781 1807 1835 1865 1892
Other Carbon and GHGs (2) 324 320 323 328 338 343 347 356 361 368 376 375 382 390
Greenhouse Gas Total 1841 1882 1884 1912 1969 2005 2041 2080 2117 2149 2183 2210 2247 2282
US GOP (billion 1996 dollars) (3) 8857 9224 9319 9523 9826 10103 10418 10719 11046 11442 11867 12312 12777 13166
US GOP (billion 2001 dollars) (4) 9726 10130 10234 10458 10791 11095 11442 11771 12131 12565 13032 13521 14032 14459

GHG Intensity 189 186 184 183 182 181 178 177 174 171 167 163 160 158
(metric tons of carbon equivalent per million dollars GOP)

Alternate Estimates of Non-energy Carbon and Other GHGs

EPA Forecasts (6) 346 354 363 371 380 389 396 404 411 419 427 435 443
Greenhouse Gas Total 1908 1915 . 1946 2002 2042 2083 2121 2160 2192 2225 2261 2300 2335
GHG Intensity 188 187 186 186 184 182 180 178 174 171 167 164 161

National Communication Forecast wlMeasures (5) 342 346 350 354 358 363 366 369 372 375 379 384 390
Greenhouse Gas Total 1903 1907 1934 1985 2021 2056 2090 2125 2153 2182 2213 2249 2282
GHG Intensity 188 186 185 184 182 180 178 175 171 167 164 160 158

Notes:
(1) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeolaeotab_19.htm
(2) EIA staff calculations using emission inventories from [LINK TO 1999 INVENTORY] and growth rates described in (6)
(3) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaflaeolaeotab_20.htm
(4) converted using implicit price index for GOP (2001 :111) from National Income and Product Accounts, Table 7.1
(5) Table 5-2 excluding sinks. Values between 2001-2004, 2006-2009, arid 2011-2012 interpolated using a constant growth trend
(6) EPA staff calculations using emission inventories from [LINK) and growth rates from [LINK]
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