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"Kal'pOff, Peter" c:Peter.Karpoff@hq;doe:'gov>
:li 11/161200110:20:26AM' ' , ,
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i Record Type: Record
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;i To: "See the dlslrlbutlon list at the bottom of this message

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ce: " '
II
~I
'/ Subject: RE: Draft of US CAR, Chap~r 5 (ProJectJons)avalJable forcommen t
~
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1,
!
i Attached Is the AgElncy reylew d~ft of Chapter 5, nearly coinplet,e ~cept for"
a few Issues to b'e worked,out with USDA. This.draft is Intended. only for ' :
r revlew'by Agency participantS. After Agel1CY commentsarelnoorporate'd at
! this stage, It will be'released for public comment. piease do hot'distribute .
it at this time outSide thecirele of those who have been woi1dng onlhe "

I CAR. '"

stedback to Peter Karpoff (Peter.Karpoff@HQ;OOE.GOV) by

Incorporallonof lhecomments.lnto iii public comment
. .

if"
Thanks to all for their assistance and patience.

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William A. PlZer/CEAlEOP' '

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,.

Chapter 5: Projections (Draft for internal comment only)

I. Introduction

This chapter contains projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the functioning of the US
economy, with estimates for the years 2005,2010,2015 and 2020. The covered gases include
carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and the industrial gases consisting ofHFCs, PFCs, and
SF6. The projections are taken from the published estimates ofUS emissions regularly prepared
by the Energy Information Administration in the course oftheir regular statistical reporting
activities, but for this report the emissions are converted to metric tonnes of carbon. in keeping
with UNFCCC convention.

The estimates are based on implemented and funded PAMs as listed in Chapter 4. In addition,
the chapter describes a further set ofadopted PAMs, as contained in the National Energy Policy
(NEP), that is not yet fully implemented. The chapter provides estimates for national emissions
under implemented policies and measures for emission reduction through technology
improvements and their dissemination, demand side efficiency gains of many specific types,
more efficient regulatory procedures, and shifts to cleaner fuels. The anticipated expansion of
the US economy in the face ofpopulation and economic growth atprojected long-tenn rates
contributes to rising emissions that are only partially offset by the emission reductions from
ongoing efforts to reduce energy costs and implemented policies arid measures. Even with
projected growth in absolute emissions there is a near-tenn and continuing reduction in
emissions per unit of GDP.

Assumptions used to estimate future C02 emissions:

This projection of emissions for distant future years is, as always, subject to certain assumptions
and uncertainties. These assumptions relate to the prospective implementation and funding of
PAMs adopted but not yet funded, to the actual discovery, adoption, and efficacy of technologies
that are not yet tested in the marketplace, and to the pace ofeconomic growth in future years.

The C02 projections presented here are those reported in the 2002 Annual Energy Outlook
prepared by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department ofEnergy. The
assumptions under which these estimates were prepared include real GOP growth of 3 percent
annually over the 20 year period, without specific regard to interim business cycles. The degree
of technology improvement reflected in the projections is internally generated in the modeling
process as a reflection of available technologies and their rate of adoption, and their potential for
efficiency improvement. Oil prices are expected to decline to just over $21 per barrel in 2002
(year 2000 dollars) and then rise gradually to $24-25 per barrel by 2020 (year 2000 dollars).
Natural gas supplies are assumed adequate to support the projected growth ofnatural gas
demand. Natural gas prices are projected to rise from just over $2 per thousand cubic feet in
2002, to about $3.25 per thousand cubic feet in 2020 also in year 2000 dollars). The projection
exercise assumes that current laws and regulations will continue in force, but does not anticipate
measures not yet enacted or implemented.

CHQ66Mel
 II. Projections of US GreeDbous~ Gas EmissioD
, ".
to the y~ar
,
2020 '

Introductory Discussion ofGHG Projections, 200,0 to 2020

Greenhquse gas emissions in the United States frOm energy cO~un1ptiOn, mdustri81'and '. .
agricultural activities and from all other anthropogemcsources conwmed to grow frOm levels
reported in the' 1997 Climate Action Report to preliininary levdsreported;fortheyecir 2000.'· The
gross emissions ofgreenhouSe,gases are offset, in part, by carbon'sequeStration, but net' .
emissions increased nonetheless Under the in1l11ence ofeconomi<: groWth and population growth.
Growing effortS to iilcreasingly use cleaner fuel~, nUprov!X! teChIi~i~8Y, bett~nUUuigement'
methods for agriculture, forestry, mines and landfill have held the; gIowtb orGHG ~ssions
below the concurrent growth ofthe US economy. The policies and me~ describelin .'
Chapter 4 are'eXpected to furtlierioos~ the lirikbetWeen eco~omic growtliand GHGeDussion
path.Theprojectio~·ofUS GHO'emissions descnDedn~ief1ecdhe.natio~al estimates ofnet
GHG emission co~ideririg population growth, long-termeconomic.8rowili potCn~,his!Orical
mtes oftechnology improvement, nonnalweatherpatterns, imdimplemented poliCies and
measures; The projections reflect long.. .nm trends and do not attempt tomirrar short-run
deviations from long-run paths. The energy-reiated GHG projeCtions presented are computed by
the Energy Information Administmtion (EIA) of US Department,of Energy ~m an energy
model which provides internally consistent projections of energy-based sector emissions.
Emissions from industrial activities, apart from et:J.ergy consumption, and for the specifically
identified high OWl? gases are estimated by the US Environmental Protection Agency.
Emissions from agriculture and forestry are estimated by the US Department ofAgriculture,
using models maintained for those sectors. Estimates'ofeffective levels ofcarbon sequestration
•
I
are estimated cooperatively by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department
I ofEnergy. All estimates presented in this chapter are stated in terms of carbon dioxide tonnages,
rather than the calbontonnages commonty used in the United States. All GHG measures,

I whether they originated as carbon or other gases, are converted to carbon dioxide equivalents
based on duration-w~ighted waiming potentials.
i The most recent historical measures ofGHG emissions are for the year 2000, but these measmes
! are still preliminary and thus subject to possible revision after the publication date ofthis report.
I
I
~
The projections, however, use the preliminary 2000 benchmark as a point of departure for
estimating GHG emissions at the 5 year interval benchmarks of2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.
The text which follows describes changes in emission levels and 'intensities to th~ p,nd point year
2020. Projections of interim GHG values at five year intervals may be read from we Table I for
economic sectors, and from Table 2 for fuel inputs to the electricity sector and for total use of
each primary fuel in the. entire economy. Table 4 reports projected OHG emissions for
non-energy activities in the industrial, J('griculture and forestry, emissions ofthe high GWP gases
including methane, Nox, PFCs, HFCs, and SF6, and offset du to sequestration. Total GHG ~.
emissions are summarized in Table 7. . ~

CEQ 66Mfu
 /
I
t
I
II
! Emissions from energy use:
1
! Over the 20 year period to 2020, energy-related GHG emissions are projected to increase by _
percent, compared to projected economic growth ofJ.O percent. The projected ratio of c~n
equ: ,talents to US GDP has declined since 1990. and'continues to decline over'the projection
I period. In the first 5-year interval projected GHG emissions grow by 8.4 percent, but by the final
5-year period projected GHG emission growth has diminished to 6.2 percent. The estimated
I l
level of US GHG emissions from all energy-related activities for the year 2020 is 7655 mmt of
C02 equivalent. This level of emissions results tram the Projected Icing-term economic,
!
i technol~gica1, and demographic path, and fro~ the impact ofimpl!'IDented p,oJi(:ies ~~ ,
,I measures. Additional policies and measures, adopted but not yet implemented, and expanded
i
f emphasis on soine measures already implemented, together hold the potentiw. to further reduce
US GHG emissions for 2020 and interim years. ' ,

Improvements with regard to GHG emission intensity andthe absolute levels offuture GHG
emissions vary among econoMic sectors. The rising absolute levels ofGHGemissions foi the
entire US economy occur against a background of growth assumptions for'population and GDP.
The projected GHG emission intensity ofthe Residential secto~~~,~ percent over the
20 year interval, as measured against Personal income levels. lI~HG emission
a
contributions from the Residential sector are estimated to rise by 25 percentto total of 1397
mrnt of C02 equivalen~ annually by 2020. Over the 20 year projection period, the residential
sector contributes a diminishing share oftotal US GHG emissions.
?f
:J.
I'
:j
"
',' The project~ GHG emission intensity ofthe Commercial sector de~lines by 16 percent over the
1 ,20 year interval as measured against an increase of80 percent in GDP. Absolute emission
"
1 contributions from the Commercial sector are estimated to rise by 42.5 percent to a total of 1364
l~ romt ofC02 equivalent annaully by 2020. Over the 20 year projection peri~d, the CommerCial
~

'\ sector contributes a rising share of total US GHG emissions.

:j
,:if
~ The projected GHG emission intensity of the Industrial sector declines by 27 percent over the 20
"
'f
year interval, as measured against an increase of80 percent in GDP. Absolute emissions
'/
contributions from the Industrial sector are estimated to rise by 22 percent to a total of2134 mmt
M
ij of C02 equivalent annually by 2020. Over the 20 year projection period, the Industrial sector
,f
contributes a diminishing share oftotal US GHG emissions.
J
~
"
The projected GRG emission intensity ofthe TranSportation sector declines by 19 percent over
'j the 20 year interval, as measured against the 80 percent rise in GDP. Absolute emissions
1
'j contributions from the Transportation sector are estimated to rise by 45.6 percent to a total of
,:;
,j 2761 nunt of C02 equivalent annually by 2020. Over the 20 year projection period, the
I
:1 Transportation sector contributes a rising share of estimated total US GRG emissions, reflecting
',I
i the growth oftravel demand and the relatively limited projected use oflow emission fuels even
:i
"
:i by 2020.
"I
I

) Table 1: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source (mmlC02 equivalent)

.i 1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

t
'\

1
:l
CEQ 06&003
 Residential
Petroleum .. 100.2 100.9 94.9 90.1 85.5 82.8
Natural Gas . 256.4 268;3 291.7 300.1 31'0.9 324.8 '
Coal••••...•........ 4.4 4.4' 4.4 4.9 4;8 4.6 '
Electricity .. 707.4 747.9 832.0 873.7 923.9985.2'
Total . 1068.4 1121.5 1223.0 126i1~7 1325:1 1397.3

Commercial
Petroleum . 48.1 52:0 48.4 49.8 50.5 51.2
Natural Gas .. 165.2 180:8 199.3 213.3 228.4 245.1
Coal . 6.6 6.66.2 .. 6.5 6.9 7:3
Electricity . 682.0 717.1 802.7 893.D 978.5. 1059A
Tota!. .. 901.9 956.5 '1056.7 1162.7 1264:3 1363.0

Industrial
!
;
Petroleum......
Natural Gas ••.
358.1 343.5 361.7
507.1 499.2 541.3
393.2
581.1
414.0 431.9
611.5 632.0
i
r
Coal .. 235.1 239.1 231.1 232.1 233.7 237.1
I; Electricity . 653.8 671,,2 683.6 74!-~7 790.1 834.0
Total . 1754.11753.01817.7 1951.1 2049.3 ~2135.0
!
! Transportation
I Petroleum .. 1788.0 1842.5 2054.5 2279.9 2494.6 2679.3
I Natural Gas . 40.2 41.9 45.0 50.2 56.6 61.3
I\ Other ...~ •.......• 0.0 0.0 0;2 0.3 0.3 0.4
I Electricity . 10.6 11.0 12.5 14~1 16.1 18.9
1 Total . 1838.7 1895.4 2112.3 2344.6 2567.6 2759.8
J
I Total by' Delivered Fuel
. Petrol~um ....• 2294.3 2338.9 2559.5 2813.0 3044.6 3245.2

I
!,
I
Natural Gas....
Coal................
Other
Electricity......
968.9
246.1
0.0
2053.7
990.2
250.1
0.0
2147.2
1017.3
241.7
0.2
2330.8
1144.8
243.5
0.3
2525.5
1207.5
245.4
0.3
2708.5
1263.2
249.1
OA
2897.4
! Total............ 5563.0 5726.3 6209.7 6727.2 7206.4 7655.2

Total by Primary Fuel

Petroleum 2381 2411 2584 2829 3063 3266
Natural Gas 1156 1214 1372 1513 1687 1817
Coal 2026 2100 2253 2385 2456 2571
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 5563 5726 6209 6727 7206 7655

GHG Emissions of the Electricity sector by primary fuel input:

Although electricity consumption comes without direct on-site GHG emissions by the user,
electricitY production typically produces significant GHG emissions, with the important
, exceptions of nuclear power and renewables production, including hydro-, geothennal, wind,
biomass and biomass conversion, and solar power applications. Electricity producers differ
greatly in their reliance on various primary fuel inputs, but the overall GHG contributions of
electricity producers described below are attributable to the nationwide electricity purchases of

'.
... " ,".'
,
~

tEO 668664
'I
customers in all economic sectors.
I
I
The projected GHG emission intensity of the Electricity sector declines by 6 perc~t over the 20
I
I
year interval as measured against 'a 43 percent projeqted increaSe in tOtal sBles ofelectric energy.
I Absolute emissions contributions from the electricity sector are estimat~,\t<> riseby 35 perc~t"'
I
from the year 2000 to 2020 to a total of 790 nunt ofCOi, equivalent.refleetipg rising electric"
I
power sjl1es from 2000 to 202q. Over the"20 yw projection perio~ the E1ec,mci~.se:ctor is" ,
estimated to contribute a rising share oftotal US GHGemissiorts,'a reflection ofthe growing role
an
ofelectricity in powering activities in econdinic sectors.' , " '.
~ ..

By 2020 the mix of primary fuels in electricity production'is signifi~tly different th>IIltlleyear
2000 mix. Over the projectio~ period, the role of nani:i'3l gas, With its 'relaiively lo~ GHO .'
impact. and the growing dom.iilance ~fhighly efficienigeiierationtecbhol~~escrimbin~ to, ",
reduce the growth in eleCtricity sector GHG emissions well belo\Vwliat~eY~woU1d liave been
without these changes. .As noted above, the emission intensity ofelectriCity production is
projecteC to decline significantly over the projection period;,:By fuel type, the 2020 GHG
emissions from electricity generation are 21.5 nunt C02 for energygeneratea frc:im petroleum,
554.1 mm! C0 f?renergy generated from ~atura1 gas, 2321.9in,~6~·for ~eneration from • "
7
coal. GHG emIssIons from D,uclear and rene,wable sourcespt\J~are ess~tially zero. Other,g
'

renewable facilities likewise produce no net GHG emissions under the convention that any
emissions are only temporary and when each process is viewed over its complete fuel cycle
emissions, if any, are largely offset by inherent recycling. '

GHG Emissions of Electricity Users by Economic Sector:

Electricity is used by customers in all sectors, and in that sense the GHG emissions that result
from electricity production and distribution can be attributed to the end-use sectors. Electricity
demand by the Residential sector is projected to rise by 40 percent from 2000 to 2020, while the
GRG eUussions from electricity consumed by the Residential sector is projected to rise by 31.7
percent. The absolute level of projected GHG emissions attributable to the Residential sector
from electricity use in 2020 is 985.2 nunt C02.

Electricity demand by the Commercial sector is projected to rise by 49 percent from 2000 to
2020, while the GHG emissions from electricity consumed by the Commercial sector is projected
to rise by 47.7 percent. The absolute level ofprojected GRG emissions attributable to the
Commercial sector from electricity use in 2020 is 1059.4 romt C02. Electricity demand by the
IndUStrial sector is projected to rise by 32 percent from 2000 to 2020, while the GRO emissions
from electricity consumed by the Industrial sector is projected to'rise by 24.2 percent. The
absolute level of projected GHG emissions attributable to the Industrial sector from electricity
use in 2020 is 834.0 mmt C02. Emissions of GHGs from electricity ).ISe by the Transportation
sector is projected to rise by 71 percent from 2000 to 2020, but overall electricity use by this
sector remains small, constituting less than I percent oftotal US electricity demand in 2020.

For all sectors, demand for electricity is projected to grow more rapidly than direct fuel use in

" ~ .'
. "~ ~.~'.~; ,.,~;j .,.. ' . :. - ~.
;
CEQ'dbkffib
 other sectors·as electricity assUI?-es an expanding ~le in meeting the energy ~eIm1Ild:s ofth:e US
economy.., E~ssions ofGiIGs frOrpthe electricity sect()rare PfOJectC::<ito ris~by' 34.9J'ercent .'
over the'20:-yearProjectionpe~Cid;EfficientPrQductio~ and ~e'otel~tricitY~ as well as '
development ofclean fuels, Will be a coIltinUi.ilg policy focUs for theV¥(ed StateS.
"" ~'.'

Table 2: GH~ Emissions from fuel use 'by 'Ele~trlcity Generators, bj prima;fuel
1999 2000
' ; "
2005 2010, 2015 "
2020
Primary fuel Input
P.troleum ~. 86.3 72.9 24.8 15.7 18.7 21;5
Natural Gas; . 187.3'224.2 294.7, 368.8 ·479.3 554.1
Coal : . 1780.11850.1 2011.32141.0 ~10;1) 2321.9
Total . 2053.7 2147.2 2330.8 2525.5 ,2708.5 2897~4

GHG emissions of the US Economy from energy a~vities, by Primary Foel Input

, Total GHG emissions from aU energy activities are p,rojected to increase by 33.7 percent from ,
;
2000 to 2020, to an absolute level of7655.2 mrilt,of C02 equivalent. 'By 'eOIltrast, CUmulative, .
I
I GDP ~wth over the same period i~ projected 80 perce11.t. ConSolidating at sCct9rsarid end use'
I
j the electricity industry to exaniine the' projected'levels ,of GHG emissionS by'eaCh PrimarY fuel
I
!
shows the gro$g relative'share ofnatural gas. This share growth one' importarit cOntributor is
l to the declining ratio ofGHG emissions to economic output. " , ' '
I

I GHG emissions from petroleum fuels are projected to rise by 38.7 percent. GHG emissions fro1Il'
natural gas usage are projected to rise by 27.s p.ercent. GHGemiSSiOns..
'.1 '
from
coal are projected I • ~11!~
I to r~~ nearly ~o~tant, projected tochan~e b~ less than one~ha1fpercent. over ~e 20 year c#f. ,jv-1'
penod GHG enuSSJons from other fuels, pnmanly nuclear and hydro, but mcluding the r~ ~
renewables, are projected to rise, but remain at negli~ble levels (less than 0,4 mmt of C02 ~,)}J'"V
t

equivalent),while the utilization of low emission energy sources is expected to double by 2020. rr·

I,,
~
Natural gas meets a growing share ofUS energy demand and coal serves a reduced share of
expected US total energy demand by 2020. The petroleum fuels share remains little changed.
The impact of the changing sh;ares ofprimary fuels is to reduce US total energy-related GHG
emissions.
J
a
•
\
Table 3: Total GHG Emissions, by primary fuel input
~)
j 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
·1 Total by Primary Fuel
J
J Potroleum 2411 2584 2829 3063 3266
./
! Natural Gas 1214 1372 1513 1687 1817
'J Coal 2100 2253 2385 2456 2571
Other 0 0 0 0 0,
Total 5726 6209 6727 7206 7655
1
~
'I
I Non-Energy GHG emissions, 2000 to 2020
I
I

j: .~,
'.. ' ~ ... •
,. ",
~. ",.'
Non-energy GHG include emissionS from non-combustion activities including carbon emissions
from no~-fuel activities including gas flaring, gas processing, cement production, waste handling
and other industrial activities. Non-energy GHGs also include methane emissions associated
with natural gas production and transmission, from coal mine operation, from landfills an~.from
livestock operations, and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture, and to a l!=sser degree from
transportation. In addition, the non-energy GRGs include emissions ofHFCs, PFCs, and SF6
emissions from industrial activities and in some cases from the life cycles ofthe resulting
products. The components ofthe non-energy GHG emissions are preSented in Table 4.

CEQ6W6&7
Table 4: Projections of non-Energy GRG emissions,
All data in MMTC02 equivalents

2000p 200S 2010 2015 202,0

Non-energy carbon dioxide

Gas and gas flaring 39 40 41 43 44
Industrial processes 92 98 104 110 117

Sub total non-energy CO2 131 138 145 153 161

Methan~ Emissions
Natural Gas 115.6 114.8 114.5 116.5 118.5
Coal Mines 70.3 12.8 12.1 70.6 66.0
Landfills 213.5 219.0 '213.4 202.3 18S.7
Livesto~k Operations 163.2 166.6 170.6 174.9 178.4
Other 60.8 60.3 59.4 60.6 62.1

Sub-total, methane 623.4 633.6 630.0 624.8 610.6

High GWP Substances

HFCs 77.6 114.0 158.1 246.3 356.0
PFCs 7.9 7.2 6.4 5.7 5.0
SF6 0 0 0 0 0
Other (includes all 3 above) 38.2 48.6 43.5 37.9 49.1

Sub-total, High GWP 123.8 169.7 208.1 289.9 410.2

Nitrous Oxide
Agriculture 316.9 326.3 335.9 342.7 349.7
Mobile Combustion 62.2 61.8 65.9 74.3 83.3
Other 54.4 58.5 62.3 66.4 70.9

Sub-total, Nitrous Oxide 433.3 446.6 464.2 483.4 503.9

Total, Non-Energy GHGs 1311 1388 .1447 1551 1847

at .$' ii ,A..,
 Discussion or Non-energy GHG Emissions

Non-Energy C02: , , '

In addition to the C02 emissions from fuel use, there are'additional sourcesofC02arlSing frdm
natural gas production aDd processing:frOm thecem~tin:d~, 'anil' from smfijfainoUrits ot' "
waste combustion apart fromfueruses: These C02 e1nissioDs 8resUbjecf tOiilcreiIBiIig'c~ntYtils,

and recapture technologies to reduce'the levels ofnet'emissioiis.. ;~,ec#~e'th~' iulderl§mg:~ources

are so vSried;noclear projection~ethod other tbanbist~pcat##aP~I~!ioni§'ayai~able:;~&;e,

sources are projected to grow at 1'percent ann~y; well belo~,the'G:pp gfo~~offb:~US ,

economy assumed in the fuel emission projections. theSe non:fuel enUssions'are':projected'tC)
~ < • ,,'., "~.' -::'~ ,..,~ .} ~r"~ 0<;' < ,

grow from 1-31.6 mmt C02 equivalent iri year,2000 to 161 imnt Cd2 eiJ:uivaletit in 2020.' .
, '~ :<
Methane: ;. , ': ,
of
Emissions methane are estnDatedby the US EPA for:tlW'2o-y~>'pen~dfu;m 2009 t~"~020.

Over thisprojection~terv~ t~~' !tt,~e~ssio>~1aie,~sqtr!&;t¥l~a~tn~;bY:~~,~ Pe.r~~t;

primarily due to reductions in metbane~sioIis fro,mcoal ~esand landfills.:o~C!t mpart by

risingmethane emissions from livestock~operations. 1'ieieoussidDS ofmCthBne.frOmnattmu gaS
production, transportation arid, uSe remain n~ly Unc~S:ilged,' ai:the riliingiiatural' gas vobim~s,:

prodUced and, transPorted are governed by policies 'and''llIlicticeS that cUrtail methane releases '
with increasmg effectiveness'over the projCC?tlon period. ' ", .

Methane emissions from natural gas operations are projected to, increase from 115.6 mmt C02
equivalen~ in'the year 2000 to 118.5 mmt C02 'eq~v8IentS in 2020, an increase ofonly 2.5
percent despite 'an increaSe in expected natUral gas use ofDlore than 60% over the 20 year period.
Methane emissions from coal mme operationS and closed mines are projected to deeliile from
. 70.3 mmt C02 equivalents in the year 2000 to 66.0 mmt C02 equivalents in 2020, a decieas~ of
6 percent, despite an increase' in eXpected coal production of more than 20% over the 20 year
period. Coal mine methane is subject to continually improving management practices. Landfill
methane emissions are projected to d~rease from 2135 mmt C02 equivalents in the year 2000
to 18,5.7 IIinit C02 equivalents jn 2020, a decrease of 13 percent~ despite growing volumes of
municipal waste in place over the period. Landfill sites are subject to continually expanding
methane recovery practiceS ~ver the 20 year period; Methane Cmissions fro~ livestock
operations, manure mana:gement, and ,other activities not separately listed are expected to rise
from 218.1 ~t C02 equival~ts in the y~ar 2000 to 240.5 mmt C02 ¢qui~alents in 2020, an
increas~ ofonly 10.3 percent. ,Emissions management practices for the agricultural and other
categories do not fully offset'agricultural growth over the 20 year period.

Total net US methane emissions from all sources' are projected to decline from 623.4 mmt C02
equivalent in year 2000'to 610.6 nunt C02 equivalents in 2020, a decrease of2.1 percent.

High GWP gases:

Emissions ofHFCs, PFCs, and SF6, the high GWP gases, are projected to rise as measured by
their warming equivalent in C02. Emissions ofthese high GWP gases are projected to rise from
123.8 nimt C02 equivalent in year 2000 to 410.2 mmt C02 equivalent in 2020. The warming
potential cOntribution ofthese gases rises significantly despite the steady application of control

•
:. ; T ". ,~' :.i I •. ~, { , !. , '

h
..

efforts. The increase in these emissions i,; predominantly in the HFC category. See Table 3.

Nitrous oxides:
Emissions ofnitrous oxides from' agriculture, from 'acid production sites, , and ~m mobile
combustionsources are expected'to rise. frOm433'.3mmtC02equivalCJiUn year2000 to .503.9
mmt C02 equival~t in 2~20,. an increaSe of 16.3pere'ent overthe 20' y~,PrOJectioP,P~~d. The
largest single source of these einissionSis from agncultu!a1soiis; but ,the percent-groWth fu, '. ' ,
emissions from this sourCe is projectedtogrowatonly9.8peroe.it'The'fastest irQvvingsourees
ofnitrous oxides are from the transporlationseetor'arid from production of,riitious"ooids; "
emissions'from each ofthese sources is projected to grow by'abo~tj3p~edt over the 20 year
period. ' ' ,

Ag and Forestry contributions to GHG Emissions (carbon) (from USDA, schedule uncertain)
Is there an Agr. Carbon component not captured in non-energy C8rbon? '
Insert Table 5: Emissions o/GHGsfrom Agr. And Forestry (if any) ,

Land Use Sequestration

As noted in Table 6, forest and agricultural land management practices and the regeneration of
previously cleared forest areas have together resulted in aDn:ual net uptake (i.e., sequestration) of
carbon during the 1990's. Land use decisions influence netcarnon uptake long after their
occurrence. In recent decades carbon accretion in Eastern forestS lias heen increased by a trend
toward managed growth on private land, resulting in a neardoubling of the biomass, denSity in
eastern forests sinCe the early 1950s., More recently, the 1970s and 1980s saw a resurgence of
federally sponsored forest m~agementprogr8msand soil conservatiopj>rograms,which have
focused on tree planting, improving timber DllUlageD1ent aCtivities. combafug soil erosion, and
converting marginal croplands to forests. These efforts havebeen maintBined through the 1990s
and are expected to continue through the projectionperiocl. In additioi:l, because most of the
timber that is harvested from U.S.fotestS is used in wood produetsand much of the discarded
wood products are disposed ofby landtilling rather thaD incineration, signifIc;ant quantities of
this harvested carbon are transfeiTed to long-term storage pools rather than heing released to the
atmosphere. Projections beyond 2010 are by DOE extrapolation from the 2010 figure provided
by the USDA. USDA input is solicited on the 2020 value to report.

Adjustmeuts to GHG emissions: ,

Adjustments to emissions reported above include the emissions. predominantly fuel-related,
occurring in US Territories and a negative adjustment for both military usage and internr.cc;.a1
civilian usage ofbunker fuels. Emissions from fuel use in US Territories are projected to grow
from 202 mmt C02 equivalent in year 2000 to 363 mmt C02 equivalent in year 2020 (Footnote:
Projected growth rate is 3 percent annually, Source: USDOEIPI). Bunker fuels in Don-included
uses are estimated to produce emissions of 110 mmt C02 equivalent in year 2000 and 143 mmt
C02 equivalent in year 2020 (Footnote: Projected growth rate is 1.3 percent annually. Source:
USDOE/PI).

.. ,-,,"

II, Ii CQQ'06kfflt>
 Table 6: Projections of Carbon Sequestration and
Adjustments to GHGemissions,
All data in MMTC02 equivalents

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Land Use Sequestration: (-) 1210e 1144 1038e

Adjustments:
Emissions in US Territories (+) 202 242 279 319 363
Military and Inti. Bunkerfuels (-) 110 117 128 136 143

Sub total, Sequstration & Adj... 1522 N/A 1551 N/A 1544

Total net US GHG emission~, 2000 to 2020:

The total projected levels of US GHG emissions are tallied by combining the contributions of
energy-related aCtivities, non-energy GHG emissions (inlcuding Forestry and Agriculture), and
the high GWP gases, reduced by the projected levels ofcarbon sequestration. Since some of the
individual GHG emissions apart from energy-related portions are not attributed to particular
economic sectors, the totals are reported in aggregate.

Insert Table 7: Projections of Net US GHG Emissions, all sources

i
J All data in MMTC02 equivalents
;
1
.( 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Energy-related CO2 5726 6210 6727 7206 7655

Non-energy CO2 131 138 145 153 161
Methane 623 633 630 625 611
"! Nitrous oxides 433 447 464 483 504
.,
!'
High GWP gases 124 170 208 290 410
i Sequestration removals (-) 1522 1551 1544
:1
'. Adjustments (+) 25 34 41 50 --2Q
Total, aU covered sources 5540 6664 7857

Note ror US readers: These total US C02 equivalent emissions correspond to carbon weights of 1510
mrot for year 2000, 1817 mmt for 2010, and 2143 mIDt for 2020.

Total US GHG emissions, net of sequestration, are projected to rise from 5540 MMTC02
equivalents as the preliminary actual level for the year 2000, to 7857 MMTC02 equivalents
projected for 2020, an increase of 42 percent. Examined by 5-year intervals, the rate ofincrease
in US GHG emissions diminishes over the 20-year projection period. The declining 5-year
~
",
i

I growth rates reflect the influence of development and implem~tation of, improving technologies
that reduce the ratio of GHG einissions to GD:p over:1he period, the addition8l effects,of . . .
substitution toward fuels that emit lesseramountsofGHGs, and cha,nges in 'the composition of. .
.GDP to goods and services that embpdy rewer.fueliriputs. Some oftile nrltiptiPg·faCtoniare
also the subject ofimpleinented policieS and meaSures that reduce ettllsSi~ns::teiativetO a: .
hypothetical ''business as usual" path. In8dtlltion, there are adoPted,policieS8nd in~ures, not
yet fully implemented, and the possibility of additional policies and irleasure'S' prior to 2020 that·
are not yet even defined, which together might further reduce the 20.year GHG path below the
aggregate and scctorallevels projected in this ieport.

ill. Key Uncertainties Affecting Projected GHG EmlssioDs

Any projection of future emissions is subject to considerable uncertainty. In the short tcrDi (less
than five years), that key factors that can increase or decrease net elmsSionS includeunexpected
changes,retail energyprices, s~ in the price relationsm.pbetyleerlnatural'gas and Coal uSed for
electricity generation, cha,nges'm the economic groWth p~th,abnoimal Winter or summer .
temperatures, or iinperfect forecasting methods. Additional factors may mfluenceemission rates
over the longer term, such as teamology developments, shifts in the coniposition of econonUc'
activity 'and changes in government policies..

Technology Development (+ or -): Forecasts ofnet U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases take into
consideration likely improvements in technology over time. For example, technology~based
energy efficiency gains, which have contributed to reductions in U.S. energy'intensity for more
than 30 years, are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However, while long term
trends in technology are often predictable, the specific areas in which significant technology .
improvements will occur and which specific new technologies will become dominant i,n
commercial markets are impossible to forecast accurately, especially over the long teon.
Unexpected scientific breakthroughs can cause technology changes and shifts in economic
activity that have sometimes had dramatic effects on energy prOduction and use patterns. Such
breakthroughs could enable the U.S. to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the
future. While government and private support of research and development efforts can accelerate
on
the rate oftechnology change,:the effect of such support specific technology developments is
difficult to predict. Researchers often encounter technical or economic barriers that delay or
prevent the achievement ofpreviously established objectives. And even when a new technology
is successfully developed and commercially marketed, it can take many years before it
significantly affects energy markets and reduces national eInissions.

Regulatory or Statutory Changes (+ or -): The current forecast of U.S. greenhouse gw. '::'uUssions
does not include the effects of any legislative or regulatory action that was not finalized prior to
July 1,2001. Consequently, the forecast does not include any increase in the stringency of
equipment efficiency standards, even though existing law requires the Department ofEnergy to
periodically strengthen its existing existing'standards and to issue new standards for other
product{l. Similarly, the forecasts do not assume any future increase in new building or auto fuel

. -,'. ,"" .
... . - "';j~:igLL'Qj 11:iLc iJiJdi .. _m'-ze€Q-UWbt2
, 1
economy standards, even though such increas are required by lavl;;under consideration. D
Electric utility regulation is another area in whic ory policy c ges, at both the D
Federal and state level, are anticipated, but are not reflected in the emissions 'forecast. Finally,
the U.S..Congress is now considering a broad range of legislative proposals, including many
cont'lined in the President's National Energy Policy, that will affect U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions. Until specific legislative mandates are enacted, the forecast of emissions will not
reflect their likely effects. '

Energy Prices (+ or -): The relationship between energy prices 'and einissions, is complex. Lower
energy prices generally reduce the incentive for energy conservation and tend to encourage
expanded uses. Therefore, lower energy prices tend to increaSe energy-related emissions.
HoweveJ;, reductions in the price ofnatural gas relative to other fuels also encourages fuel
switching that can reduce carbon emissions.

The energy price projections from the 2002 Annual Energy Outlook do not assume any dramatic
changes in the energy price trends or the inter-fuel prices ratios that existed during most ofthe
1990's. The E~ergy Information Adniinistration does not believe that dramatic increases in
energy prices that occurred from mid-2000 through the beginning of2002 will persist and this
view is supported by the precipitous decline in energy prices that occurred during 2002. Some
believe that further decreases in energy prices will result from increased competition in the
electric utility sector and improved technology. Others believe that large energy price increases
might result from the faster than expected depletion of oil and gas resources,'or from political or
other disruptions in oil producing countries.

Economic Growth (+ or -): Faster economic growth increases the futW'e demand for energy
services, such as vehicle miles of travel, amount of lighted and ventilated space, and process heat ,',
used in industrial production. However, faster growth also stimulates capital investment and
reduces the average age ofthe capital stock, increasing its average energy efficiency. The
energy-service demand and energy efficiency effects ofhigher growth work in offsetting
dire,etions. The effect on service demand is the stronger ofthe two, so that levels ofprimary
energy use are positively correlated with the size of the economy.

In addition to the reference case used in developing the updated baseline, the Annual Energy
Outlook provides high and low economic growth' cases.
n In the high-growth case, the percentage change increase in energy use is slightly more
than halfthe percentage increase in the size of the economy. By 2020, the high-growth
economy is ( ) percent larger than the reference economy, but energy consumption is
only ( ) percent higher. In addition, carbon emissions are __ mmtC02 larger than the
reference case.
n In the low-growth case, a ( ) percent reduction in the size of the 2000 economy translates
into a ( ) percent reduction in primary energy use. In this case, carbon emissions would
be _ mmtC02 lower than the reference scenario in the year 2000.

Faster'than expected growth during the late 1990's was the major cause ofhigher than expected
 .'

Estimates ofother
• • "
cBIbon~stoC~:(e.g;~for~
•• '
.fl6or arid
.. <.'-,1-.
, . ' ; . _i'L,
._~
.
'-. •
ujid~tQ9') ~;lik~ly~~q:~~~~~c~'-:'
• ~_ ~_, f, ." .." F<~~"'-''''.·.. -~:i(F-, "''':>i,,(,~, .•. ; .f', . ,'. i '. ,

smce there are no coDiprehensive~ statistically valid'mVentories;ofnon';~' or~c,mattcl: for .

. large areas ofilie'u~ted States. USDX~timate~ their:lrilc~tY. a;tFl~:oj.'UW1~;'i:S'p~tfut: '
'. '. '),.','. ~ .' • r ~ ," h :';' .' :'~' " ' . . vi. .c, ,_ ' ,,. . .•...;.:.• ,'~ . .; ',~~: •:,0 ~,"" :. ~' " ,.' ;,.... '
Additionalnon~q~tiPed sources ofuncertainty.should also,benotecl 'FiI:st,:dcriving 8l1Ilual,
,stock'cb8rlgeestinlates from:
f1tandll1g stock estimates wouid.mcreaseUncertaUltY:further;' Second,
estimates Pr~j~t~d from lristori~data ~g econometric In,od~iswiIl, be le~ c~ dhe'tbtbe' .
,unIaloWn Uncertainty .9fthe aSSumptionS,rilade'm the econom~tOc ~04els; ~~~esforan Years
afterl~97 ,are
projeetOOfroin -1997. dati. Additionally, certaliiIaridS biveiri~t been included in, .,
these stock estimates: ' .

Weather (+ or. -): En~gy use forhe.ating ~d cooling is directly responsive (0 w~ather variation.'
The forecast ~f emissions as~u;mes tbirty-r~ llveragc,values for pop1:llation~weighted •
heating-llridcooling-degree days; Unlike other sources ofunCeruUnty,for wliich deviations .
'. betWeen 'ass~¥:a:nd'actual ~~ nUlyfollow a persistenfcom:se over, time, theeffeet of .
weather on ener8>' Use;and ,einissioris in any particular year is largely independent year to year.
For'the'Uliiied. States, :a sWing,in~ith~ direction ofthe magnitude,experienced in individual '
yearS during the 1990s could raiS,e,or lower annualemissioDs by 20 MMTCE relative to a year
with average weather that geribrateS tYPical hea&g and cooling demands. While small relative to
total emissions, 'a change ofthls niagmfude is significant relative 'to the year to year growth of
total eririssions. '' , . '

',~, >
1990 Stats CO2 Energy GOP Pop CO2 CO2 Energy Energy
mmtce quads $1990T millions per GOP per Pop per GOP per Pop
United States 1,355 84 5.80 249 233 5.43 14.51 0.34
Canada 128 11 0.58 28 219 4.60 18.79 0.39
Japan 269 18 2.97 123 91 2.18 6.04 0.15
European Union 905 57 6.79 365 133 2.48 8.37 U.16
Germany 272 15 1.63 79 167 3.42 9.10 0.19
United Kingdom 164 9 0.99 58 165 2.84 9.38 0.16
EU w/o Germany & UK 469 33 4.17 228 112 2.06 7.84 0.14

1999 Stats CO2 Energy GOp Pop CO2 CO2 Energy Energy
mmtce quads $1990T millions per GOP per Pop per GOP per Pop
United States 1,520 97 7.68 273 198 5.57 12.64 0.36
Canada 151 13 0.72 30 210 4.95 17.40 0.41
Japan 307 22 3.33 127 92 2.42 6.52 0.17
European Union 913 63 8.00 376 114 2.43 7.81 0.17
Germany 230 14 1.92 82 120 2.80 7.28 0.17
United Kingdom 152 10 1.19 59 129 2.58 8.37 0.17
EU wlo Germany & UK 531 39 4.90 234 108 2.26 7.89 0.16

1990-1999 Avg Annual Growth CO2 CO2 Energy Energy

CO2 Energy GOP Pop per GOP per Pop per GOP per Pop
United States 1.28 1.58 3.11 0.99 -1.83 0.29 -1.53 0.59
Canada 1.87 1.52 2.37 1.07 -0.50 0.80 -0.85 0.46
Japan 1.45 2.13 1.28 0.27 0.17 1.18 0.85 1.86
European Union 0.10 1.07 1.83 0.33 -1.73 -0.23 -0.76 0.74
Germany -1.85 -0.63 1.85 0.37 -3.70 -2.23 -2.48 -1.00
United Kingdom -0.79 0.73 2.01 0.29 -2.80 -1.09 -1.27 0.44
EU wlo Germany & UK 1.37 1.85 1.78 0.33 -0.42 1.04 0.07 1.53

001.877

CEQ 008016
 GOP
per Pop
23.26
20.98
24.0~
18.62
20.48
17.19
18.33

GOP
per Pop
28.16
23.60
26.31
21.31
23.40
20.06
20.90

GOP
per Pop
2.12
1.31
1.01
1.50
1.48
1.71
1.46

CEQ 008017