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Recommendation:STRONGBUY
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Analyst:NehaMajithia
nmjaithia@microsec.in
+03330512176
IndianHotelsCompanyLimited
STRONGBUY
SectorHotels
We rate Indian Hotels Company Ltd a STRONG BUY. Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL) and its subsidiaries
collectively known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces is one of Asia's largest and finest hotel company, with an
inventory of 13629 rooms and 115 hotels across India and internationally. It has presence across different chain
segments like Luxury, Upper Upscale, upper scale and Budget segment with various brands named Taj, Vivanta,
Gateway and Ginger Hotels. With its active capacity addition in rooms and hotels, solid entry barriers in Luxury
segment,improvedoccupancyrates,amplifyinghoteltariffsandfocusonboostingupthecashflows,weseeIndian
HotelsCompanytogrowataCAGRof10.28%intermsofrevenueandmarginsimprovingsubstantiallyby~160bpsfor
thenextfiveyears.
InvestmentRationale
Highcapacityofexpansioninhotel andRooms: IHCLcameupwithtotal27hotelsand3042roomsinlastfive
years,bothinitsdomesticandinternationalportfolio.Itcameupwith7hotelsand971roomsinFY12.Thereare18
hotelsand2040roomsinpipelineinFY13and20hotelsand2573roomsinFY14.Thecompanyisplanningtodouble
itshotelsunderitsbrandnamedVivantabyTajto50fromthecurrent23hotelsinthenext4years.Itisalsogoing
toaddanother22hotelsunderthebrandnamedGatewayandnew55hotelsunderGingerinnextfouryears.
Companys focus on Cash Flows: The company is on verge of improving its Cash flows by focusing on interest
expenses,employeecosts,totaldebtandcashbalances.IthasstrongaveragecashearningspershareofINR3.49per
shareforlastfiveyearsandispoisedtoachievethehistoricallevelbygivinganext5yearaverageof~INR5.46per
share.
Riseinoccupancyrates,roomtariffsandARRstodrivetoplinegrowth:Thegradualriseinoccupancyrates,
hotel tariffs and average room rates (ARRs) is likely to drive the topline growth and also increase the margins. The
companyexpectstheoccupancyratestoreach~78%withimproveddomestictourismandweakrupee.Themarginal
hikesinhoteltariffwouldbenefittheARRsandturnoverofIHCLincomingyears.Therewasamarginalriseinhotel
tariffsof2%inFY12inIndiaand4%globally.
StrongentrybarrierinLuxurysegment:ThecompanyisexpectedtooutperformintheLuxurysegmentspaceon
accountofstrongentrybarrierinitsLuxurysegment.Thereasonisescalatinglandprices,highestablishingcostsinthe
currentscenario asacorefactorfortheupcominghotels.
Valuation
-225thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
Companyprofile
Indian hotels company (IHCL) jointly with its subsidiaries is known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces, which is one of Asias largest and finest hotel
company.Itgotincorporatedin1902,bythefounderoftheTatagroup,Mr.JamshedjiNTata,anditopeneditsfirsthotelTheTajMahalPalace&
TowerinMumbai.
Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces comprises 93 hotels in 55 locations across India with an additional 16 international hotels inthe Maldives, Malaysia,
Australia,UK,USA,Bhutan,SriLanka,AfricaandtheMiddleEast.
CompanyStructure
IndianHotelsCompanyLtd
Subsidiaries
Domestic:
TIFCOHoldingsLimited
KTCHotelsLimited
UnitedHotelsLimited
TajSATSAirCateringLimited
RootsCorporationLimited
ResidencyFoodsandBeveragesLimited
International:
InternationalHotelManagementServices
Inc.
TajInternationalHotels(HK)Limited
St.JamesCourtHotelLimited
ChieftainCorporationNV
IHOCOBV
TajInternationalHotelsLimited
SamsaraPropertiesLimited
IHMS(Australia)PtyLimited
ApexHotelManagementServicesPte
Limited
Associates
Domestic:
TaidaTradingandIndustriesLimited
OrientalHotelsLimited
TajMaduraiLimited
TajAirLimited
LandsEndPropertiesPrivateLimited
Luthria&LalchandaniHotel&PropertiesPvt.Ltd.
SkydeckPropertiesandDevelopersPrivate
Limited
SheenaInvestmentsPrivateLimited
ELELHotels&InvestmentsLimited
BusinessJets(India)Pvt.Ltd.
PrestigeGardenResortsPrivateLimited
International:
TALLankaHotelsPLC
LankaIslandResortsLimited
BjetsPteLimited
BAHC1PteLimited
BAHC2PteLimited
CullenOakesCorp
BusinessJetsPteLimited
BjetsAssetHoldingsPteLimited
PlatinumLeasingLimited
OHLInternational(HK)Limited
TALMaldivesResortsPvtLimited
GoodhopePalaceHotelsPvt.Ltd.
JointVentures
Domestic:
TajMadrasFlightKitchenPvt.Ltd.
TajKarnatakaHotels&ResortsLtd.
TajKeralaHotels&ResortsLtd.
TajGVKHotels&ResortsLimited
TajSafarisLtd.
KaveriRetreats&ResortsLimited
International:
TALHotelsandResortsLimited
IHMSHotels(SA)(Proprietary)Limited
-325thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
CompanyBrands
-425thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
IndianHotelsCompanyLtd
TAJLuxuryHotels
VivantabyTAJ
GatewayHotels
GingerHotels
TGHResidencyRoad,Bangalore
Bangalore
India
TheTajMahalPalace,Mumbai
VivantabyTajConnemara,Chennai
TajLandsEnd,Mumbai
TajExotica,Goa
TGHBeachRoad,Calicut
Haridwar
TheTajMahalHotel,NewDelhi
VivantabyTajFortAguada,Goa
HotelChandela,Khajuraho
Bhubaneswar
TajPalaceHotel,NewDelhi
VivantabyTajHolidayVillage,Goa
HotelSavoy,Ooty
Mysore
TajBengal,Kolkata
UshaKiranPalace,Gwalior
TGHRawalkot,Jaisalmer
Trivandrum
TheTajWestEnd,Bangalore
VivantabyTajHariMahal,Jodhpur
Kuteeram,Bangalore
PunePimpri
TajLakePalaceHotel,Udaipur
JaiMahalPalace,Jaipur
TGHGirForest,SasanGir
Nashik
TajWellingtonMews,Mumbai
VivantabyTajWhitefieldITPL,Bangalore
TGHBeachRoad,Vishakapatnam
Agartala
TajFalaknumaPalace,Hyderabad
TajResidency,Aurangabad
TGHPasumalaiHills,Madurai
Puducherry
TajCoromandel,Chennai
VivantabyTajPresident,Mumbai
TGHChurchRoad,Coonoor
Vadodara
TajKrishna,Hyderabad
VivantabyTajMGRoad,Bangalore
TGHPortRoad,Mangalore
PantNagar
RambaghPalace,Jaipur
VivantabyTajAmbassador,NewDelhi
TGHFatehabadRoad,Agra
RailYatriNiwas,Delhi
UmaidBhawanPalace,Jodhpur
TajBanjara,Hyderabad
TGHAmbad,Nasik
Goa
MahuaKothi,Bandhavgarh
TajDeccan,Hyderabad
TGHGangesVaranasi
Ludhiana
Baghvan,Pench
TajChandigarh,Chandigarh
TGHErnakulam
Ahmedabad
Pasangarh,Panna
VivantabyTajGomtiNagar,Lucknow
TGHVarkala,Janaradhanapuram
Mangalore
BanjarTola,Kanha
VivantabyTajBlueDiamond,Pune
TGHKMRoad,Chikmagalur
Guwahati
VivantabyTajFishermansCove,Chennai
TGHAthwaLines,Surat
Jamshedpur
VivantabyTajMalabar,Cochin
TGHM.G.Road,Vijaywada
PuneWakad
VivantabyTajKumarakom,Kerala
TGHUmmedAhmedabad
Surat
VivantabyTajKovalam,Kerala
TGHAkotaGardens,Vadodara
Manesar
VivantabyTajSawaiMadhopur,Ranthambore
SMS,Jaipur
ChennaiIIT
RamgarhLodge,Jaipur
TGHJodhpur
DelhiVivekVihar
VivantabyTajTrivandrum,Kerala
NadesarPalace
Indore
TajClubHouse,Chennai
-525thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
VivantabyTajPanaji,Goa
Overseas
AirCatering
ThePierre,NewYork
TajSamudra,Colombo
AirportGardenHotel,Colombo
Mumbai
TajBoston,Boston
VivantabyTajExotica,Bentota
NewDelhi
CamptonPlace,SanFrancisco
VivantabyTajCoralReef,Maldives
Kolkata
TajExoticaResort&Spa,Maldives
RebakIslandResort,Langkawi,Malaysia
Chennai
TajPalaceHotelDubai
TajTashi,Thimphu,Bhutan
Goa
CrownPlaza/St.JamesCourt,London
TajPamodzi,Lusaka
Amritsar
51BuckinghamGate,London
Bangalore
TajCapeTown,SouthAfrica
Cochin
Blue,Sydney,Australia
HotelIndustryOverview
Occupancy(%)ofHotelsinIndia
ARR(%)ofHotelsinIndia
62%
65%
Goa
45%
44%
Jaipur
Pune
45%
49%
`/perroom
63%
63%
chennai
64%
62%
Bangalore
30%
FY201112
40%
50%
60%
10442
10638
9025
8728
9407
SouthMumbai
70%
80%
FY201011
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,STRGlobal
8327
8189
NorthMumbai
53%
54%
20%
6521
6536
chennai
Delhi
64%
65%
NorthMumbai
6143
6097
Hyderabad
Bangalore
68%
70%
Delhi
7108
7349
Kolkata
57%
60%
Hyderabad
SouthMumbai
5470
5919
Pune
71%
68%
10%
8407
8154
Jaipur
Kolkata
0%
7007
6496
Goa
2000
4000
6000
FY201112
FY201011
8000
10085
10000
12000
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,STRGlobal
-625thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
InternationalTouristArrivals(ITAs)
12
1200
1000
10.3
700
monthsof2012.
600
500
6.6
4.4
5.6
3.5
8
6
5.9
0.1
800
2012,butataslowerpaceof34%.ITAsgrewby5.7%inthefirsttwo
6.6
7.9
900
InMillions
changes in the Middle East and North Africa and natural disasters in
Japan.
10
1100
4
2.1
1.6
0
2
3.8
4
6
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012
InternationalTouristArrivals
%Change
Europe(2%to4%).TheMiddleEast(0%to+5%)isforecastedtorecover
Source:UNWTO,MicrosecResearch
partofitslossesfrom2011.
ForeignTouristsarrivals(FTAs)inIndia
7
The Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) continued to grow at an inactive
count,withagrowthofjust9.4%intheperiod,JanuaryAprilof2012,as
FTAsinIndiagrewbycloseto9%to6.98millionin2011ascomparedto
5.78millionin2010.Ithasexhibitedagrowthof~90%overlast6years
inMillions
against12.10%overcorrespondingperiodof2011.
fromapproximately392milliontravelersin2005.
26.8
14.3
15
11.8
8.8 9.40%
10
5
0
2.2
4.2
10
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 JanApril
ofCY2012
ForeigntouristArrivals(FTA)
%Change
arrivalstoAfricaandtheMiddleEastwasweakwhilearrivalstoEurope,
Asia, the Pacific and Americas led the international traveler growth
duringCY2011.
20
13.3 13.5
6.7
25
14.3
30
Source:MinistryofTourism,GovernmentofIndia,MicrosecResearch
ForeignexchangeEarnings(FEE)inIndia
TheForeignExchangeEarnings(FEE)fromtourismduringtheperiodof
60000
INR(Cr)
17.8
50000
20.6
13.7
25
15.6
19.6
18.5
18.1
40000
30000
20000
entertainmentlicensesareslowinggrowthininboundtourism.
30
34.8
comparedtothecorrespondingperiodofpreviousyear.
Still, India is lacking behind and losing in foreign exchange because of
35
70000
40
37.6
15
10
7.1
3.5
0.1
10000
-7-
20
%
80000
10
CY2000 CY2001 CY2002 CY2003 CY2004 CY2005 CY2006 CY2007 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 JanApril
of
CY2012
ForeignExchangeEarnings(FEE)
%Change
Source:MinistryofTourism,GovernmentofIndia,Microsec
25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
Indiasroomsupplypipelinecontinuestobestrong
350000
Indiasroomsupplypipelinerepresents17%oftheAsiaPacificpipeline.
ItwasmovingataCAGRof10.81%forlast10yearsandisnowpoisedto
growataCAGRof6%innext5years.
250000
200000
capacitybyallthehotelsbothinIndiaandInternationally.
233850
300000
CAGRof9%
60850
173000
150000
Thesupplypipelinewouldbeefupalsoonaccountofimprovedforeign
100000
62000
touristarrivals,corporatetravels,etc.
50000
International hotels like Carlson, Strawood, Marriot, etc are the ones
2003
2012
Next5Years
which have chalked out plans to acquire the sufficient market share,
Existing
thus,givingathrusttotheIndiansupplypipeline.
Pipeline
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
IndiasHotelPerformanceinKeyCitiesinFY12
Indianhotelsperformanceshowedanoverall6%increaseonthesupply
Hyderabad
front. New supply was witnessed mainly in new and emerging CBDs
Chennai
acrossmetros.Though,demandgrewatamoderatepace.
Bangalore
Jaipur
2.40%
7.40%
1.80%
6.60%
0.80%
7.40%
1.10%
8.70%
4.20%
Delhi
CitieslikeHyderabad,Chennai,Delhisawmajorpositivechangesonthe
supply performance side and others like Mumbai, Goa saw a surge on
thedemandside.
Mumbai
2.40%
Goa
5.50%
2.90%
3.90%
India
0.00%
13.40%
7.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
6.00%
Demand%Change
25thJune,2012
Supply%Change
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
GlobalScenario
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
8.00%
-8-
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData,
MicrosecResearch
DevelopmentsinFY201112
NewHotelsinFY2011/12
Hotels
Indicativetimeline
Company
Rooms
IHCLDirect/ManagementContract
VivantabyTaj,Yeshwantpur
Launched
IHCL
327
VivantabyTaj,Srinagar
Launched
ManagementContract
88
VivantabyTaj,Bekal,Kerala
SoftOpening
ManagementContract
72
TheGatewayHotel,SasanGir
Launched
ManagementContract
28
SubTotal
515
Subsidiaries/JVs/Associates
VivantabyTaj,Begumpet,Hyderabad
Launched
TajGVK
181
VivantabyTaj,Coimbatore
Launched
OHL
180
GingerHotelsTirupur
2011/12
RootsCorporation
95
SubTotal
456
NewDevelopmentsin2011/12include7hotelsand971rooms.
UpcomingDevelopments
HotelsinPipeline2012/13
Hotels
Company
Rooms
Taj
TajPalaceMarrakech,Morocco
ManagementContract
161
ImperialClubbyTaj,Tardeo,Mumbai
ManagementContract
VivantabyTaj
VivantabyTaj,Dwarka
IHCL
250
VivantabyTaj,Coorg
KaveriResorts
VivantabyTaj,Gurgaon
ManagementContract
200
Gateway,Kolkata
ManagementContract
200
Gateway,Raipur
ManagementContract
119
Gateway,Gondia
BHL
34
Gateway,Hubli
ManagementContract
92
GatewayOMR,Chennai
ManagementContract
193
GingerHotels(EightinNumber)
RootsCorporationLtd
720
62
Gateway
NewDevelopmentsinPipeline2012/13include18Hotelsand2040rooms
-925thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
HotelsinPipeline2013/14
Hotel
Company
Rooms
Taj
TajAirportHotel,CSIA,T1C,Mumbai
TajGVKLtd
275
TajPalace,TempleofHeaven
ManagementContract
105
VivantabyTaj,Nagpur
ManagementContract
255
VivantabyTaj,LakeEnd,Udaipur
PiemHotelsLtd
VivantabyTaj
80
Gateway
Gateway,Faridabad
ManagementContract
160
Gateway,Banerghatta
OHL
209
Gateway,Chiplun
ManagementContract
60
Gateway,Shirdi
ManagementContract
119
Gateway,Hinjewadi
ManagementContract
150
GatewayNashik(Expansion)
PiemHotelsLtd
GingerHotels(TeninNumber)
RootsCorporationLtd
67
1093
NewDevelopmentsinPipeline2013/14include20Hotelsand2573rooms
No.ofRooms(%)
15508
16000
21%
15000
32%
130
13629
14000
11754
12000
10587
11000
22%
9000
Subsidiaries
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
JointVentures
9931
12243
100
107
103
99
90
88
80
82
70
FY200607
Associates
120
110
115
8000
25%
IHCL(Standalone)
130
12795
13000
10000
140
FY200708
FY200809
Rooms
FY200910
FY201011
FY201112 FY201213(E)
Hotels
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
- 10 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
SurplusInventory&supplementaryroomrateshurtsroomoccupancy
80%
76%
72%
68%
TheAverageroomoccupancyrateforIndianhotelsis~70%forlast5
64%
yearsandispresumedtoreach75%innext45years,withthesupport
60%
68%
bigpositiveintermsofoccupancy.Nevertheless,hikeinroomratesin
populardestinationsisajumbocountforthecompany.
FY201314E
FY201213E
ThemajorreinforcementinitsbudgetspacesegmentalloverIndiaisa
FY201112A
FY201011A
expansionofdifferentchainsegmenthotelsinIndiaandabroad.
FY200910A
FY200809A
66%
FY200607A
showedanimprovementinoccupancyevenwithflatroomrates.
75%
70%
73%
Hyderabad, Bangalore and Pune. Mumbai was the only metro, which
78%
73%
73%
FY200708A
RoomOccupancy
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
10000
9000
TheARRsarelikelytoshapeupinfutureonbackofincreaseinhotel
tariffs,riseindomesticandinternationaltourism.
FY201314E
FY201213E
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
tariffs,whichoflategaveaboosttotheARRs.
FY201112A
6000
FY201011A
FY200607A
7000
FY200910A
8000
FY200809A
marginalimprovementonthedomesticfrontwasduetomarginalrise
FY200708A
ThegrowthinARR/OccupancywasrelativelymutedinFY12.TheARRs
11566
11000
10860
travel.
9873
12000
8975
10709
13000
9234
The average room rates (ARRs) remained steady for FY12, with a
INR(Cr)
10674
12433
AverageRoomRatestogaingroundonprolongedhoteltariffs
AverageRoomRate(ARR)
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Revenueperavailableroomtogetaboost
7000
hoteltariffs.
8615
7977
7386
6714
INR
8000
6104
by10%,asaresultofsupplementaryroomratesduringtheyear.
7842
9000
TheRevenueperavailableroom(RevPar)increasedsignificantlyinFY12
6723
7084
10000
6000
FY201314E
FY201213E
FY201112A
FY201011A
FY200910A
FY200809A
FY200708A
FY200607A
5000
RevPAR
- 11 25thJune,2012
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
MicrosecResearch
RoomIncomeisanticipatedtoclimbup~18%byFY14,ongroundof
favorableAverageroomrates(ARRs)andincidentalroomcapacityin
FY201314E
FY201213E
surmountinaveragedailyroomssoldincludingcapacityincrease.
FY201112A
500
FY201011A
slowdowninbusiness,theabovementionedrisewasonbackof8%
FY200910A
600
FY200809A
FY200708A
700
FY200607A
1049.32
800
TAJFalaknama,Hyderabad.
953.93
900
attributedtoreopeningofTAJMahalPalace,Mumbaiandlaunchof
883.27
834.52
1000
699.63
drasticallyinFY11,withajumpof19%overFY10,byvirtueofhigher
843.19
1100
845.1
INR(Cr)
978.71
RoomIncomeelevatesonbackoftoweringincreaseinroomcapacity
RoomIncome
hotels.
Heftyfood&beverageIncomeonbackofstablebanquetingincome
TheFood&BeverageincomewasupinFY12againstFY11,butata
passiverateof11%,becauseofsuperiorgrowthinrestaurantsales
INR(Cr)
822.77
754.83
705.45
500
andbulkybanquetingincome.
FY201314E
FY201213E
FY201112A
thecompanysportfolio.
FY201011A
years withthelaunchofforthcominghotelsandrestaurantsacross
FY200910A
FY200809A
400
FY200607A
600
FY200708A
700
636.7
800
of22%.
536.34
900
508.99
521.2
585.32
1000
Food&BeverageIncome
112.17
128.41
FY201314E
66.46
118.90
FY201213E
hotelsunderthecompanysinternationalportfolio.
FY201112A
FY201011A
59.97
Though,inFY11,themanagementfeewashigherthanFY10figures
FY200910A
FY200809A
profitabilityinNonIHCLhotels.
58.62
The other judgment for the higher management fee was the
INR(Cr)
FY200708A
turnoverofbothIHCLandNonIHCLHotels.
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
74.2
FY200607A
106.12
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
Managementfeeyettoaugmentgrowth
ManagementFee
- 12 25thJune,2012
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
MicrosecResearch
FinancialAnalysis(Consolidated)Radiantoutlookwithmountedmargins
4500
5.36%forlast6years.Priortolastsixyears,thecompanygrewat
4000
3500
FY09,FY10&FY11onthegroundsof1)slowdowninUSeconomy
3000
2500
21.47%
15.90%
14.73%
16.21%
0.48%
15.00%
0.09%
5.57%
1.60%
3.26%
5.00%
0.00%
NetSales
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDAMargin(%)
FY201314E
FY200910A
FY200809A
5.00%
FY200708A
500
20.00%
10.00%
4.07%
FY200607A
registeringasurgeof19.92%againstFY11.Thiswasmainlybecause
managementfee.
17.50%
1500
salesduetosurgeinrestaurantsalesandbanquetingbusinessand
15.96%
12.16%
2000
roomssoldincludingcapacityaddition2)higherfoodandbeverage
25.00%
15.80%
500
of1)roomrevenuegrowthdrivenby8%increaseinaveragedaily
30.00%
1000
ratesandfinacialoperationsofthecompany.
35.00%
FY2001213E
foreigntouristarrivalsinIndiainreturnhammeringtheoccupancy
40.00%
33.72%
FY2001112A
34.64%
FY201011A
INR(Cr)
10.00%
PATMargin(%)
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
TheEBITDAforFY12arrivedatINR545.70crores,whichwasupby
13.31% against FY11. The 6% hike in management fee due to
toweringturnoverandprofitabilityinNonIHCLhotelscontributed
to these earnings. The EBITDA Margins for the year was 15.90%,
which was merely down by 93bps. We expect the margins to
improve, though not identical to its historic levels, but, at a swift
pace because of enduring growth in revenue, other operating
incomeanddecreaseinexpenditurewithrespecttototalincome.
TheexpenditurefortheFY12wasINR2887.01,whichwas84.10%of
total income. It increased by 76bps against FY11, because of 1)
increase in raw material cost in line with 11% hike in food and
beverages revenue and rising commodity input cost 2) annual
increments, launch of new hotels in Bangalore and Hyderabad 3)
riseinemployeecosts4)surmountvariablecostslinkedtobusiness
commensuratecostsofnewpropertiesandhigheradvertisingcosts
onaccountofongoingexpansionofVivantabyTAJ.
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
The company barged in with consolidated net profit of INR3.06 crores, after posting losses for last 2 consecutive years. The net profit showed a
growthof96.49%againstalossofINR87.26croresinFY11.ThePATmarginfortheyearwas0.09%whichwasupby314bps.
We expect the company to grow at a CAGR of 10.28% in terms of revenue for the next 5 years on back of 1) matured growth rates in foreign
touristarrivalsandcorporatetravelwhichwouldsubstanciallyimpacttheARRsandoccupancies,notjustacrossthecompanysportfolio,butalso
the hotels in its Joint ventures, subsidiaries and associates 2) expansion of hotels in various hotel chain segments, like luxury, upper upscale,
upscaleandbudgetsegment,thus,cateringtotheneedsofallclassofpeople3)Weakrupeewhichwouldbringcoercionamongthecostconcious
indianstotravelwithinthecountryandresultinrisingroomratesnotonlyinpopulardestinations,but,alsointhemetrocities4)favourableARRs
- 13 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
whichwouldboostthedemandoftheallgradesofpeople5)boostupinturnoverandprofitsmainlyfrombyPiem,TajSats,BenaresHotelsLtd
,etcinthedomesticportfolio6)turnovergrowthinRootsCorporationLimited7)growthinturnoverandprofitabilitybyStJames,TIHL,IHMS(A)
andTALHotels&ResortsLtdininternationalportfolio8)fullyretirementofdebtofSamsarapropertiesLtdtwhichwouldboostupprofitmargins,
thoughnotsignoficantly9)growth,butatagradualrate,intheUShotels.
5%
1091
997
1073
160
9%
10%
20%
15%
120
15%
INR(Cr)
10%
80
261
254
81.05
132
300
Revenue
PAT
FY201213E
19
0%
30%
FY200708A FY200809A FY200910A FY201011A FY201112A
5%
9.32
210
51.07
3%
2%
4
102
40
25%
5%
34
24%
24%
10%
7%
5.32
20%
11
600
300
15%
15
900
21%
FY201314E
Revenue
PATMargin(%)
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
25%
128
9%
PAT
PATMargin(%)
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
70
60
50
40
30
expansioninGingerhotelsthroughitssubsidiaryTheRootsCorporation
20
INR(Cr)
INR(Cr)
1104
177.45
23%
5%
1200
169
200
153
3%
1500
0%
156
1702.26
1621
1544
146
1800
186.32
Subsidiaries/Associates/JointVenturesOnthetrailofconcreteturnover
62 62
25 25
20
15
20
16
10
25
15
10
managementcontractsandsubsidiaries6)improvementinperformance
10
20
5
FY200708A
andARRs.
20
FY200809A
FY200910A
7
FY201011A
FY201112A
FY201213E
FY201314E
Revenue PAT
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
- 14 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
DomesticandInternationalSubsidiaries
ARR(%)InternationalHotelsofTaj
80
600
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
300
52
54
St.JamesCourt,
London
200
Blue,Sydney
100
40
38
30
FY200910A
FY201011A
FY2001112A
RevPAR(%)InternationalHotelsofTaj
337
351.23
InternationalHotelManagementServices
Inc.
St.JamesCourtHotelsLtd
TajBoston
IHMS(Australia)PtyLtd
57
11
5.8
2.5
IHOCOBV
202
221
149
197
168
St.JamesCourt,London
FY2001112A
FY200910A
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
FY201011A
FY2001112A
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
InternationalHotelManagement
ServicesInc.
1.23
0.17
0
0
0.07
0.01
0
0.17
11.67
15.65
27.23
50
0.93
0.01
0.06
0.02
FY201011A
Blue,Sydney
100
0
FY200910A
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
35
53
40.89
1.55
0.04
49.83
20.63
38.98
19.64
0.12
40.92
1.28
0.19
ChieftainCorporation NV
186
200
ApexHotelManagementPTELtd
100
139
TajInternationalHotelsLtd
150
153
SamsaraPropertiesLtd
193
168
USD
210
195.7
197.63
TajInternational(H.K.)Ltd
240
300
133
158
300
INR(Cr)
ThePierre,NewYork
377
400
350
50
FY2001112A
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
450
417.39
450
200
FY201011A
500
250
St.JamesCourt,London
Blue,Sydney
FY200910A
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
400
CamptonPlace,San
Francisco
400
252
61
190
60
273
296
63
59
252
72
64
USD
70
50
TajBoston
500
75
171
78
74
TajBoston
78
260
259
81
80
256
250
209
188
84
ThePierre,NewYork
598
90
700
620
ThePierre,NewYork
632
Occupancy(%)InternationalHotelsofTaj
0.1
4.25
0.03
St.JamesCourtHotelsLtd
IHMS(Australia)PtyLtd
TajInternational(H.K.)Ltd
INR(Cr)
56.25
50
TajInternationalHotelsLtd
86.16
100
SamsaraPropertiesLtd
115.69
107.39
ApexHotelManagementPTELtd
ChieftainCorporation NV
150
200
168.16
183.79
IHOCOBV
FY200910A
FY201011A
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
25thJune,2012
FY2001112A
- 15 MicrosecResearch
SubsidiaryCompanies
NameofCompany
Associates
CountryofOperation
Holding(%)
NameofCompany
Domestic
TIFCOHoldingsLtd.
India
100%
KTCHotelsLtd.
India
100%
UnitedHotelsLtd.
India
55%
RootsCorporationLtd.
India
100%
TajSATSAirCateringLtd.
India
51%
ResidencyFoods&BeveragesLtd.
India
98.68%
CountryofOperation
Holding(%)
International
Domestic
IdealIce&ColdStorageCo.Ltd.
India
34.99%
BenaresHotelsLtd.
India
49.53%
PiemHotelsLtd.
India
46.20%
TajTradeandTransportCo.Ltd.
India
46.62%
TajEnterprisesLtd.
India
44.60%
TaidaTradingandIndustriesLtd.
India
41.50%
TajInternationalHotels(H.K.)Ltd.(TIHK)
HongKong
100%
ChieftainCorporationNV
NetherlandsAntilles
100%
InditravelPvt.Ltd.
India
47.08%
IHOCOBV
Netherlands
100%
OrientalHotelsLtd.
India
33.80%
St.JamesCourtHotelsLtd.
UnitedKingdom
54.01%
TajMaduraiLtd.
India
26.00%
TajInternationalHotelsLtd.
UnitedKingdom
100%
KaveriRetreats&ResortsLimited
India
22.73%
InternationalHotelManagementServicesInc.
USA
100%
SamsaraPropertiesLtd.
BritishVirginIslands
100%
IHMS(Australia)PtyLtd.
Australia
100%
LankaIslandResortsLtd.
SriLanka
24.16%
ApexHotelManagementServices(Pte)Ltd.
Singapore
100%
TALLankaHotelsPLC
SriLanka
24.62%
International
JointlyControlledEntities
NameofCompany
CountryofOperation
Holding(%)
Domestic
TajMadrasFlightKitchenPvt.Ltd.
India
50.00%
TajKarnatakaHotels&ResortsLtd.
India
38.81%
TajKeralaHotels&ResortsLtd.
India
28.30%
TajGVKHotels&ResortsLtd.
India
25.52%
TajSafarisLtd
India
22.98%
International
TALHotels&ResortsLtd.
HongKong
27%
IHMSHotels(SA)(Proprietary)Ltd.
SouthAfrica
50%
- 16 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
QuarterlyAnalysis:MarginsdiponbackofunexpectedsluggishnessinOccupanciesandARRs
Particulars(INRinCrores)
Q4FY12A
Q3FY12A
560.15
521.48
530.87
ShareofProfitsinAssociates
OtherOperatingIncome
TotalIncome
560.15
521.48
530.87
5.52%
TotalExpenditure
400.96
380.78
345.25
16.14%
as%ofsales
71.58%
73.02%
65.03%
EBITDA
159.19
140.70
185.62
14.24%
EBITDAMargin(%)
28.42%
26.98%
34.97%
31.89
26.51
EBIT
127.30
EBITMargin(%)
NetSales
Q4FY11A
YoY(%)
QoQ(%)
YoYChange(%)
2862.47
29.24
7.42%
3432.71
2891.71
18.71%
5.30%
2887.01
2410.09
19.79%
84.10%
84.20%
13.14%
545.7
481.62
13.31%
(655)bps
144bps
15.90%
16.83%
(93)bps
27.98
13.97%
20.29%
255.07
227.89
11.93%
114.19
157.64
19.25%
11.48%
290.63
253.73
14.54%
22.73%
21.90%
29.69%
(396)bps
83bps
8.47%
8.86%
(39)bps
29.53
30.35
26.53
11.31%
2.70%
193.38
251.17
23.01%
9.9
8.59
15.43
35.84%
15.25%
50.78
35.73
42.12%
107.67
92.43
146.54
26.53%
16.49%
148.03
38.29
286.60%
1.11
14.81
1.94
42.78%
92.51%
0.46
15.74
102.92%
PBTafterexceptionalitems
106.56
77.62
144.60
26.31%
37.28%
147.57
54.03
173.13%
PBTMargin(%)
19.02%
14.88%
27.24%
(822)bps
414bps
4.30%
1.89%
241bps
41.35
27.14
50.67
18.39%
52.36%
121.75
93.66
29.99%
38.80%
34.97%
35.04%
82.50%
173.35%
65.21
50.48
93.93
25.82
39.63
65.21
50.48
93.93
25.82
39.63
165.15%
MinorityInterest
38.4
11.66
229.33%
SharesofProfit&LossinAssociates
15.64
35.97
143.48%
65.21
50.48
93.93
30.58%
29.18%
3.06
87.26
103.51%
11.64%
9.68%
17.69%
(605)bps
196bps
0.09%
3.05%
314bps
75.95
75.95
75.95
75.95
75.95
BasicEPS
0.86
0.66
1.24
30.58%
29.18%
0.04
1.15
103.51%
AdjustedEPS
0.86
0.66
1.24
30.58%
29.18%
0.04
1.15
103.51%
Interest
OtherIncome
PBTbeforeexceptionalitems
exceptionalitems
Tax
Tax(%)
PATbeforeextraordinaryitems
Extraordinaryitem
PATafterextraordinaryitems
PATafterminorityinterest
PATMargin(%)
PaidupEquityShareCapital
7.42%
FY11A
3432.71
Depreciation
5.52%
FY12A
30.58%
29.18%
30.58%
29.18%
19.92%
165.15%
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
The Q4FY12 arrived with net sales of INR560.15 crore, which was reasonably up by 7.42% sequentially and 5.52% on YoY basis. This was mainly
throughthemediumofthetoplinegrowthdrivenbynewcapacityandFood&beveragesales.
- 17 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
TheEBITDAforthequarterturnedupatINR159.19crore,whichwasupby13.14%sequentially,but,cascadedby14.24%onyearlybasis.TheEBITDA
Margincameat28.42%,whichwasagainupby144bpssequentially,but,downby655bpsonyearlybasis.
The fall in EBITDA Margins on yearly basis was due to a) abrupt sluggishness in occupancies and ARRs b) increase in staffing costs and operating
expendituretothenewlylaunchedVivantabytajatBengaluruandc)noncashforeignexchangelossduetoadversecurrencymovements.
IHCLpostedaNetprofitofINR65.21crores,whichwasdescendedsharplyby30.58%onyearlyground,butoutperformedsequentiallybymarching
upby29.18%.Q4FY12attainedanetprofitmarginof11.64%,whichwasupby196bpssequentially,butdownby605bpsonyearlybasis.
TheEPSforthequarterwasINR0.86pershareascomparedtoINR0.66pershareinQ3FY12andINR1.24pershareinQ4FY11.
PeerComparison
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,Bloomberg,INRinCrores
KeyRisks&Concerns
HeavyCredenceonIndianoperations:IHCLheavilydependsonIndiasoperationsonforeigntouristarrivals,Foreignexchangeearningsandvisa
ontravels,etc,whichmakesitinclinedtothedomesticeconomicconditions.Moreover,theoperationsandearningsareessentiallyconcentratedin
keycities,mainlymetrocities.
CompetitionfromInternationalChain:TheIndiansubcontinent,SouthEastAsiaandAsiaPacificwithhighgrowthrateshavebecomethefocus
areaofmajorinternationalchains.SeveralofthesechainslikeCarlson,Starwood,MarriotInternational,Accor,HiltonandIntercontinentalHotels
have announced their plans to establish hotels to take advantage of the demand supply imbalance. These entrants are expected to intensify the
competitiveenvironmentinthecomingyears.ThesuccessofTajGroupwillbedependentuponitsabilitytocompeteinareassuchasroomrates,
quality of accommodation, brand recognition, service level, and convenience of location and to a lesser extent, the quality and scope of other
amenities,includingfoodandbeveragefacilities.
Foreign exchange fluctuation risks: IHCL has a portfolio of foreign currency debt, in respect of which it faces exposure to fluctuations in
currencyaswellasinterestraterisks.
Dependence on the highend Luxury segment: Luxury hotels contribute a significant proportion of the total revenue and earnings of the
Company.Thissegmentisaffectedbytheinternationaleventsandtravelbehaviorandsuffersfromhighoperatingleverage.Adversedevelopment
affectingthesehotelsorthecitiesinwhichtheyoperatecouldhaveamateriallyadverseeffectonIHCL.
- 18 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
Valuation
WefollowedDiscountedCashFlow(DCF)approachtovalueIndianHotelsCompanyLimited(IHCL).Adescriptionofthevaluationisasfollows:
DiscountedCashFlow(DCF)
We utilized Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 7.98% to discount the future earnings of Indian hotels Company Ltd (IHCL). In
addition, we applied a terminal growth rate of 2.50% for the earnings beyond FY2016E. We arrived at the WACC with a Cost of Equity of
11.69%,posttaxCostofDebtof4.45%,andDebttoEquityof1.05x.ByadoptingCapitalAssetPricingModel (CAPM),wearriveatCostto
Equity based on Market Return of 12.28%, Risk Free Rate of 8.06% and Beta of 0.86x. Furthermore, the Cost of Debt represents expected
interestcostafterdeductingthetaximpact.Withthis,ourDCFvaluationreflectsatargetpriceof`80.62forthestockwithaperiodof1year,
whichreflectsanupsideof35.15%fromtheCMPof`59.65.
- 19 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
IncomeStatement
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,Note:TataSonsLimiteddatedJune22,2012,hasexercisedtheoptiontoconvert4,80,00,000Warrantswhereeach
WarrantentitledTataSonsLimitedtosubscribetooneOrdinaryShareoftheCompanyofINR1/eachoftheCompanyatINR103.64pershare
- 20 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
BalanceSheet
Source:CompanyData,MicrosecResearch,INRinCrores,Note:TataSonsLimiteddatedJune22,2012,hasexercisedtheoptiontoconvert4,80,00,000Warrants
whereeachWarrantentitledTataSonsLimitedtosubscribetooneOrdinaryShareoftheCompanyofINR1/eachoftheCompanyatINR103.64pershare
- 21 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
CashFlowAnalysis
CashFlowFortheYearEndedMarch,31st
Particulars(INRinCrores)
A.CashFlowFromOperatingActivities
FY200809A
FY200910A
FY201011A
FY201112A
FY201213E
FY201314E
NetProfitBeforeTax
158.51
33.73
24.75
147.57
182.33
304.60
Depreciation
188.46
218.54
227.95
255.07
254.97
271.36
2.71
4.49
0.82
0.3
0.04
39.16
4.08
20.9
2.39
14.08
4.5
8.22
4.15
ImpairmentofGoodwill
3.26
Expensesondiscountedprojectwrittenoff
5.2
2.03
5.72
4.29
230.46
306.14
251.15
0.02
48.74
20.08
17.89
Contingentprovisionagainststandardassets
0.12
Provisionforcontingentclaims
0.64
5.32
1.61
2.2
0.19
0.2
11.09
0.66
9.03
562.51
430.83
473.06
596.02
630.90
767.55
9.22
2.48
6.20
27.82
2.60
4.45
71.47
9.56
59.53
81.80
16.90
39.09
(Increase)/Decreaseinloansandadvances
0.00
0.00
0.00
19.80
68.35
48.25
Increase/(Decrease)inCurrent&Liabilities
48.50
56.55
12.49
58.28
130.91
73.32
(Increase)/DecreaseinOtherCurrentAssets
64.74
64.74
Cashgeneratedfromoperations
530.32
480.30
526.30
460.14
875.40
845.58
Directtaxespaid
191.42
53.19
13.61
121.75
127.63
152.30
338.9
427.11
512.69
338.39
747.77
693.28
Loss/(Profit)onassetssoldordiscarded
AmortizationofVRSexpenditure
profitonsaleofinvestments
Unrealizedexchangegainonfinancingactivities
ProvisionforDoubtfuldebts
Profitonsaleofhotels
InterestExpenses
InterestIncome
DividendIncome
ProvisionforLoyaltyprogram
Provisionforcontingencies
ProvisionforEmployeeBenefits
OperatingProfitbeforeWCchanges
(Increase)/DecreaseinInventories
(Increase)/DecreaseinSundryDebtors
NetCashfromOperatingActivities
B.CashFlowFromInvestingActivities
PurchaseofFixedAssets
SaleofFixedAssets
193.38
793.64
508.51
412.65
12.83
65.19
106.13
193.60
641.17
191.60
400.00
250.00
- 22 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
SaleofInvestments
12
7720.93
3089.05
352.11
7103.27
3717.24
InterestReceived
32.55
25.35
51.53
DividendReceived
69.45
34.77
31.98
142.13
69.97
67.86
1161.05
304.43
783.34
(Purchase)ofInvestments
DepositsRefundedby/(Placedwith)OtherCompanies(Net)
NetCashusedinInvestingActivities
C.CashFlowFromFinancingActivities
DebentureIssue/Loanarrangementcosts
601.91
160.58
39.26
84.00
560.58
334.00
12.87
23.3
0.52
192.63
791.32
364.34
1287.4
1957.4
49.51
150
150
449.47
1133.59
119.51
18.4
13.4
30.67
1.89
8.66
0.15
823.9
1.02
498.04
120
230.1
324.43
290.68
DividendPaid(includingtaxondividend)
145.49
107.53
88.68
NetCashfrom/(Used)infinancingactivities
1231.56
423.64
85.82
Net(Increase)/Decreaseincash&cashequivalents
409.41
307.9
Cash&CashEquivalentsatbeginning
260.21
Repaymentoflongtermloans&debentures
Proceedsoflongtermloans&debentures
ShortTermLoansRaised/(Repaid)(Net)
LongTermTradeDepositsRaised/(Repaid)
Shareapplicationmoney
ProceedsfromissueofEquityshares
ProceedsfromissueofPreferencesharesbyasubsidiary
InterestPaid
ImpactofEx.FluctuationsonCashandCashEquivalents
Cash&CashEquivalentsatEnd
497.47
193.38
193.60
191.60
63.63
67.02
193.38
71.84
422.02
356.47
105.75
259.03
62.73
252.84
548.72
195.38
172.60
431.63
8.88
12.02
3.13
678.5
548.72
195.38
301.13
431.63
368.89
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
- 23 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
RatioAnalysis
Source:MicrosecResearch,CompanyData
- 24 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
MicrosecResearch:PhoneNo.:913330512100Email:microsec_research@microsec.in
AjayJaiswal:President,InvestmentStrategies,HeadofResearch:ajaiswal@microsec.in
FundamentalResearch
Name
Sectors
Designation
EmailID
NitinPrakashDaga
IT,Telecom&Entertainment
AVPResearch
npdaga@microsec.in
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Midcaps,MarketStrategies
AVPResearch
nvyas@microsec.in
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Agriculture&Pharma
ResearchAnalyst
gdeb@microsec.in
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Economy
ResearchAnalyst
sroy@microsec.in
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BFSI
ResearchAnalyst
sjain@microsec.in
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MidCap
ResearchAnalyst
adas4@microsec.in
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MidCap
ResearchAnalyst
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MidCap
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MidCap
ExecutiveResearch
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Technical&DerivativeResearch
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Derivatives&Technical
VP
vpagaria@microsec.in
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TechnicalResearch
Sr.Manager
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InstitutionalDesk
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InstitutionalEquities
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Research:FinancialPlanningDivision
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ResearchSupport
SubhabrataBoral
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Recommendation
Expectedabsolutereturns(%)over12months
StrongBuy
>20%
Buy
between10%and20%
Hold
between0%and10%
Underperform
between0%and10%
Sell
<10%
sboral@microsec.in
MICROSECRESEARCHISALSOACCESSIBLEONBLOOMBERGAT<MCLI>
- 25 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
- 26 25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch
Disclaimer:
This document is prepared by the research team of Microsec Capital Ltd. (hereinafter referred as MCL) circulated for purely information purpose to the
authorizedrecipientandshouldnotbereplicatedorquotedorcirculatedtoanypersoninanyform.ThisdocumentshouldnotbeinterpretedasanInvestment/
taxation/legaladvice.Whiletheinformationcontainedinthereporthasbeenprocuredingoodfaith,fromsourcesconsideredtobereliable,nostatementinthe
reportshouldbeconsideredtobecompleteoraccurate.Therefore,itshouldonlyberelieduponatonesownrisk.
MCL is not soliciting any action based on the report. No indication is intended from the report that the transaction undertaken based on the information
contained in this report will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific
investmentobjectivesandfinancialpositionandusingsuchindependentadvisors,astheybelievenecessary.
- 27
- be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or
Neither the Firm, nor its directors, employees, agents nor representatives
shall
consequentialincludinglostrevenueorlostprofitsthatmayarisefromorinconnectionwiththeuseoftheinformation.
25thJune,2012
MicrosecResearch