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should also be in favor of continued efforts to build better relations with Iran.
It outweighs -- Europe and private industries are the key internal link to oil
AND other restrictions are key
-proves we never actually shift policy
Gallucci 1/29 (Maria, Iranian Oil Exports: US-Iran Relations Complicate European Efforts To
Ship Crude, http://www.ibtimes.com/iranian-oil-exports-us-iran-relations-complicate-europeanefforts-ship-crude-2286019) [nagel]
Executives of shipping companies are
struggling to obtain insurance for oil tankers holding Iranian crude, highlighting a potential roadblock to
Irans plans to ramp up exports after the end of sanctions imposed by the West, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday. Half a
dozen oil companies and trading firms, including Frances Total SA and Switzerlands Litasco Group, in recent
days have sought tankers to ship 8 million barrels of Iranian crude to the European Union for
delivery next month. An executive at a Greek oil-tanker company said he agreed to book a load of Iranian crude, but
couldnt find insurance to cover the shipment . I am just testing the waters. But I had to give
up, he told the Journal. The U.S. this month lifted a broad set of sanctions on Iran in exchange for
limits to the Iranian nuclear program. But several restrictions remain in place, including a ban on direct
relations between American companies and financial institutions and Iran, as well as a prohibition on
using U.S. dollars in transactions with Iran. The policy has had a chilling effect on Western insurance
companies, which are reluctant to underwrite shipments of Iranian crude to European shores,
U.S. policy toward Iran is complicating efforts to ship Iranian oil to Europe.
according to the Journal. For instance, Londons International Group of Protection & Indemnity Club has an American member in its
group of insurers, making it subject to U.S. policy. The Treasury Department recently reminded the group of the prohibitions on U.S.Iran relations, the newspaper reported.
B.) Reactionaries -- CX didnt have an answer -- they said the policy was
structural -- GF ev says (in un-underlined part) reactionaries in both
governments prevent cooperation obviously the GOP isnt going to just
give up its attacks on Iran just because we withdraw presence
Domestic opponents of both governments will continue to play a key role in sustaining
much of the status quo.
C.) Rezaei Laundry List -- 1AC Rezaei says US threats inevitable and
irrelevant, but that ISRAEL threats are triggered by increased cooperation
and that THAT triggers Iran build up READ BLUE
Rezaei 11/15
Apart from the United States, which has always been threatening Iran the Israeli regime, which is
close to Iran in geographical terms, has never given up its overt threats against the country and
has even worked out numerous scenarios for launching a military attack against Iran. The new
round of such threats began in 2011, when many heated debates were going on about the
reaction that the United States and Israel would show to Iran's peaceful nuclear activities. It was
due to these threats and aggressive intentions that Iran's military doctrine, through a public
address by Ayatollah Khamenei, entered a new phase on the basis of the balance of threats.
The leader, in an important speech made at Imam Ali Military Academy in October 2011, announced that in the face of
threat we will resort to threat . It was here that the concept of balance of threat was added to Iran's military strategy.
Hefty military spending by Iran's neighboring countries with support from the West, has
increasingly faced Iran with a security dilemma. Therefore, since Iran's defense capabilities
have relatively reduced in comparison with neighboring countries as a result of multiple kinds of sanctions
imposed on the country, the Islamic Republic has a clear reason to embark on developing its missile
industries in order to defend its security . In fact, the proven ability of Israel and the United States to
attack their potential rivals, along with their immunity to punishment, has encouraged Iran to
acquire conventional military potentials and armament so that its enemies would not be able to attack it. These
realities also force Iran to try and maintain its position in the regional balance of powers by acquiring the necessary amount of power
of Iran believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran should relay on its national potentialities to boost its power and counteract threats in
a unilateral manner. Iran's
foreign policy and defensive behavior during the imposed war as well as in
the course of the nuclear diplomacy can be analyzed within this framework. According to the model of
creating externalized balance, the Islamic Republic of Iran adopts a multilateral approach in order to build new coalitions and
alliances as a prelude to creating balance. Iran's policy of looking to the east, which was based on establishing closer relations with
the Peoples Republic of China and membership at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, can be considered as an example of
externalized creation of balance as purported by the Iranian leader to counter and thwart threats posed by the United States and
Israel. This
issue proves that Iran's military strategy under the command and in line with the
approach of Ayatollah Khamenei is of a defensive nature whose main goal is to maintain the
status quo. Even American officials have at times admitted to this issue. Therefore, following suit with this military strategy, Iran
has turned into an independent actor with independent defensive approaches, which are based on active deterrence. According to
this approach, as adopted by Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran has a historical background and important identity in regional issues and this
Therefore,
despite all shortcomings and considerations with which we are faced in this regard, defensive
realism is the closest theory of international relations to Ayatollah Khamenei's way of thinking.
is why the country never shifts its strategy in the face of regional issues and continues to pursue a single principle.
Pivot causes serial policy failure EVEN within a realist security framework
Glaser 13
(John Glaser , freelance journalist based in Washington, DC, The Washington Times, "The asia pivot: making an enemy of china,"
6/24/13 http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/john-glaser-intelligence-foreign-policy-world/2013/jun/24/asia-pivotmaking-enemy-china/, TSW)
But there is one aspect of Obamas bellicose foreign policy so far removed from the al-Qaeda threat that he has been unable to
conjure it: the so-called Asia
The Asia Pivot harks back to a time when imperial powers didnt have to justify military
expansionism with tall tales of impending attacks on the homeland. It more resembles the famed
Great Game in which the British Empire fought with the Russian Empire for strategic supremacy in Central Asia. According to
Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, writing in Foreign Affairs, China is the only country widely seen as a possible threat to
U.S. predominance. Indeed, Chinas rise has led to fears that the country will soon overwhelm its neighbors and one day
supplant the United States as a global hegemon. They add that America
Chinas internal affairs, the guarantor of the status quo in Taiwan, the largest naval presence in the East China and
South China seas, the formal or informal military ally of many of Chinas neighbors, and the primary framer and defender of
existing international legal regimes. The U.S. could cut its defense budget in half tomorrow and still outspend China on its
military. But that hasnt calmed the Obama administration into easing his approach. This comes with serious risks.
Already by 2011, the Center for Strategic International Studies identified in a report the unintended consequences that could
come with Obamas stern posture in Asia. The report predicted a shift in Chinese foreign policy based on the new leaderships
judgment that it must respond to a U.S. strategy that seeks to prevent Chinas reemergence as a great power. The
U.S.
Asia pivot has triggered an outpouring of anti-American sentiment in China that will increase
pressure on Chinas incoming leadership to stand up to the United States, the report added.
Nationalistic voices are calling for military countermeasures to the bolstering of Americas
military posture in the region and the new U.S. defense strategic guidelines. Or, in the words of
former Chinese diplomat Jia Xiudong: Dont treat China as an enemy. Otherwise you end up with an
enemy in China. The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China has risen to
unprecedented levels, and thats a good thing. Left to their own devices, Americans and Chinese would
continue to engage in peaceful, mutually beneficial trade. Only Washington, going abroad in search of
monsters to destroy, could turn that into a casus belli .
100 years of the Communist Party of ChinaCPC, the goal of which is for China to resolve the problems of food, clothing,
housing and daily necessities for its entire population, and the other is from 1949 to 2049, that is the dream of the 100 years of the
Peoples Republic of China (PRC), the goal of which is for China to reach a middle-level for developed countries in terms of
economics and social development. Even
by 2049, there will still be a big gap between China and the
U.S., and there will be no such a thing as Chinas replacement of the U.S. as the global
superpower. Chinas population is four times that of the U.S. When will per capita GDP of China
be equal to that of the U.S.? Perhaps, the answer will not be available for a fairly long historical period. Therefore, it is
purely an illusory assumption that China has a secret strategy to replace the U.S. as the
global superpower in 2049, not to mention China does not have that intention at all.
With a Cold War mentality and zero-sum game logic , such a stale approach to observing
China often leads to misunderstanding and misjudgments, resulting in the theory of China
threat. Neglecting all the important characteristics of Chinas rise are among the main causes for the blemish in observation and
research. China is doing its utmost to make her rise peaceful and beneficial to all, believing that all
countries, big or small, are equal in international affairs, and big powers, including China and
the U.S., should and can build a new type of relations based on mutual benefit and win-win
cooperation. A rising China can not only live in peace with the U.S., but also work together
with the U.S. to realize the long-term goal of sustainable common security and common
prosperity for the whole world.
No US/China war
-
Economic interdependence
Artyom Lukin 14, Professor @ Far Eastern Federal University (Russia), Imagining World War
III -- In 2034, 8/4/2014, The World Post (partnership of the Huffington Post and Berggruen
Institute, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/artyom-lukin/world-war-iii_b_5646641.html
three reasons war is unlikely anytime soon . First, despite the double-digit annual growth
in its defense budgets, China's military still significantly lags behind the U.S.'
Second
China depends on America much more than
the other way round. China is still critically reliant on the U.S and its allies, the EU and Japan, as
its principal export markets and sources of advanced technologies and know-how. Overall,
China's dependence on international markets is very high , with the trade to GDP ratio standing
at 53 percent. China imports many vital raw materials, such as oil and iron ore.
China would be extremely vulnerable to a naval blockade , which is likely to be mounted
by the U.S. in case of a major conflict.
There are
near-parity with the U.S.-Japan allied forces in the East Asian littoral.
by the sea,
Both for economic and strategic reasons, the Chinese government pursues policies to reduce the country's reliance on foreign markets, trying to shift from an
export-oriented model to domestic sources of growth. It is also making efforts to secure raw materials in the countries and regions contiguous to China, like Central Asia, Russia or Burma, so as to reduce dependence on sea-born shipments. However, at least for
major power ally and some lesser allies. Whether China dares to pose a serious challenge to the U.S. will, to a large extent, hinge upon Beijing and Moscow forming a Eurasian geopolitical bloc. This is already happening now, but it is going to take some more time.
The bottom line: over the next 15 to 20 years a major war in Asia is highly unlikely because
Beijing will be playing a cautious game . Even if a military clash does occur, it will be short ,
with China being quickly routed by the preponderant American force .
However, around 2030 the balance is bound to undergo
considerable changes, if China is successful in: 1) closing military gap with the U.S.; 2) making its economy less reliant on the Western markets and overseas raw resources; and 3) forming its own alliance structure.
cited figure is that 40 percent of world trade (reportedly worth $5.3 trillion) passes through the South China Sea. Throw in the East
China Sea and the Taiwan Strait and the total must be more than 50 percent. Could
there are many flashpoints for minor conflict: the Senkaku Islands, various shoals and reefs
in the South China Sea, Chinas expanded air defence identification zone, and most
notoriously Chinas building of a whole new island in the middle of the ocean , presumably
intended to form the basis for reinforcing its maritime claims. The outcome of these disputes may determine who
gets to drill for deep offshore oil decades in the future. But they dont involve major national
interests for any of the countries concerned, least of all the United States. So while its
possible that China will become involved in a minor air or sea incident with one or more of its
maritime neighbors, its entirely unlikely that China will become involved in a major
regional conflict with any of them . No one is going to go to war because two warplanes
collide in mid-air . Historically countries have not even gone to war over the intentional
shooting down of civilian airliners, never mind military accidents. One China war scenario is credible, but it
doesnt threaten U.S. interests: the possibility of war between China and Russia. Contemporary Russia is a deceptively unstable
country that could suddenly descend into anarchy at any moment in an unsuccessful military coup, on the unexpected death of
Vladimir Putin, in a future color revolution, etc. As Russian academic Artyom Lukin explains, the Russian far east has massive
natural resources needed by China and a population of just 6 million. In a chaotic situation it could be a tempting target, but Chinas
current leadership seems rational enough not to run the risk of thermonuclear war. A Phantom Menace So why play up the
challenge from China? Let
is
no evidence that Beijing has any interest in engaging in armed conflict with Washington .
If thats the case, why arm to forestall that threat? Peaceful coexistence is a much cheaper and much less provocative strategy.
Mearsheimer ignores
that if one does not follow the kind of real politik analysis for which he is famous
pointed out, and it has a hard time dealing even with ISIS, which has at most 35,000 fighters and lacks a navy, air force, nuclear
redouble our efforts to prevent his dire predictions from coming true.