APRIL 2010

Dear investor,

The financial year 2009-10 ended with the Sensex gaining a whopping 80%,
moving from 9,708 to 17,527 points. Corporate profits for 2009-10 on the whole
remain flat: They were low in the first half but made a robust recovery in the
second half. That recovery is likely to continue in 2010-11. At this juncture,
earnings forecasts show that for the next year EPS growth will be 25-30% - from
From the desk of
Rs.810 to Rs.1,000 + EPS. There are two contradictory trends to this development.
Raamdeo Agrawal
Global recovery is leading to high export demand, which will support high GDP
growth, but high oil/commodity prices threaten corporate profitability.

“ If we
shopped for
The government is also pushing its infrastructure agenda hard. The monsoons are
forecast to be normal this year. Hence we are set for 8-9% growth in the next
year, with inflation of 6-7%. Asset prices are at reasonably elevated levels. Rs.64
lakh cr market cap is almost 100% of current GDP. We have to be extremely
selective in finding value, particularly among large caps. A few spots where I think
we should look for opportunities are: Banking/PSU banking in particular, Telecom,
stocks the Cement, Steel and Real Estate. A pre-budget correction also proved that markets
are unlikely to drop below 15,000 points. Hence, every depression in the market
way we shop should be used to invest for 3-5 years.

for socks, Wish you prosperity and successful investments in 2010-11.

Happy investing
we would be
Sincerely yours,
better off

” Raamdeo Agrawal

1257 Business Locations 576 cities www.motilaloswal.com

 Equity Overview

Market roundup
Happy days were back on Dalal Street as the Sensex gained 1,098 points
INDEX
(7%) to close at 17,528 points on 31 March, 2010. The Sensex gained 7,221
Index Sensex Nifty
points (70%) during the financial year 2010. With 4QFY10 results round the
March- 31 17528 5249
February- 28 16430 4922 corner, FIIs were net buyers with nearly Rs.15k crore invested during March,
Change (Pts) 1098 327 the highest in a single month.
Change (%) 6.68 6.64 FII inflow is expected to continue because the global economy is on the path
High 1Z7793 5329 to recovery. Most global markets are near their 16-18 month highs. Recently
Low 16438 4935 released US manufacturing data were very positive, at a five-year high. Not
only in the US, but in the Euro zone, as well, manufacturing grew faster than
Global Market
in the previous month. This was reflected in the Purchasing Manager’s Index
Market Level
Index as on 31st-March-10 Chg. (Pts) Chg. (%) (PMI) for the region which was 56.6 in March against 54.2 in February. In
Nikkei 11090 964 9.5 the UK, the Manufacturing Index is at a 16-year high, and manufacturing
Nasdaq 2398 160 7.1 indices in Germany and France are at their respective six and four year highs.
Sensex 17528 1098 6.7 China’s vast industrial sector also grew in March. These numbers suggest a
Nifty 5249 327 6.6 recovery from the recessionary times that had affected economies around
FTSE 100 Index 5680 325 6.1
the globe.
Dow 10857 532 5.2
The manufacturing and agriculture sectors have rebounded. This is best
Hang Sang 21239 630 3.1
reflected in the Brazil market, one of the best in the BRIC economies. The
FIIs and MFs fund flows for Mar. 2010 (Rs. Cr)
Brazil Index is merely 3% lower than its all time high. Brazil produced a
Particulars FII’s MF’s bumper sugar output and India’s sugar production may beat expectations as
Gross Purchase 59,693 25,818
the expected output can go up to 16m tons from 14m tons. Wheat production
Gross Sales 44,900 30,954
significantly increased globally and India too is expected to post record wheat
Net Investment 14,793 -5,136
production this year.
Major events in March 2010 Reliance Industries’ gas production from the KG Basin and Cairn India’s oil
• Sensex touches 25-month high at 17793 production from Rajasthan are at optimum capacity and are expected from
• Hero Honda declares special dividend of Rs.80 per FY11. The government has initiated huge investment in infrastructure and
share
power projects. During March, the total auto sales surged over 1m, which is
• January Industrial Production (IIP) at 16.7% v/s 16.8%
in Dec 09 an all-time high. Generally, growth in the automobiles sector indicates an
• 10-year bond yield rises to 8% for first time since improvement in the economy.
2008
• RBI hikes repo rate by 25bps to 5% and reverse repo High at 17,793
BSE Daily Movement in March 2010
rate by 25bps to 3.5%
• India outlook raises to Stable from Negative by S&P
• Six key Industries grew by 4.5% for the month of
February vs 9.5% January 10 Close at 17,527
• Rupee hit 16-month high at below 45 a dollar
• Crude oil nearly 17-month high at $85 a barrel
Major events to watch for next month (US)
• April 2010 - Initial jobless numbers 8th
Unemployment rate 5th
Trade balance 13th
Advance retail sales 14th
Industrial production 15th
Housing starts 16th
Open & Low at 16,438
New home sales 23rd
FOMC rate decision 28th

2 MOSt Wealth
 New Research Reports

India Cements
25th January 10 / CMP: Rs.113

Y/E NET SALES PAT EPS EPS P/E P/BV ROE ROCE EV/ EV/TON
MARCH (RS. MN) (RS. MN) (RS.) GROWTH (%) (X) (X) ( %) ( %) EBITDA (US$)
3/09A 34,268 4,851 17.7 -28.2 6.4 0.9 15.7 16.8 5.0 78
3/10E 38,264 3,527 12.9 -27.3 8.8 0.8 9.4 11.4 6.2 84
3/11E 40,351 1,854 6.8 -47.4 16.7 0.8 4.7 6.9 8.5 77
3/12E 45,593 1,655 6.0 -10.8 18.7 0.7 3.9 6.6 7.5 71
New capacities drive volumes, revenues: (including the addition of 12m-13mt over 18 months) is expected
Volumes grew by 38% to 2.76mt, driven by commissioning of to restrict a significant run-up in cement prices.
new capacities. Cement sales grew by 33%, driven by sales in markets IPL franchise – an option value:
of West and East India. Realizations declined by 12% QoQ (~17% India Cements had bought franchisee rights of Chennai Super Kings,
YoY) reflecting severe pressure in southern India and higher clinker a 100% owned cricket team in the Indian Premier League, for
sales. Cement realizations declined by Rs.31/bag QoQ (Rs.33/bag US$91m. The IPL was very successful in the first two seasons. While
YoY). Clinker realizations were stable QoQ due to a difference in we do not assign a value to its IPL team, we believe it offers option
billing from ex-factory to CIF (~Rs.63/bag QoQ decline adjusting value given the success in first two seasons. At floor valuation of
for the change). As a result, net sales grew by 14.8% to Rs.8.6bn. $225m for the auction for the two new teams, India Cements’ IPL
In 3QFY10, India Cements booked Rs.135mn as shipping revenue franchisee would be valued at Rs.38/ share (~33% of MCap). The
and Rs.134mn from IPL. implied residual valuation of the cement business is 11.1x FY11E
Lower realizations, cost push triggers fall in Margins: EPS, 6.9x EV/EBITDA and $62/ton.
EBITDA de-grew by 61% QoQ (~35% YoY) to Rs.1.17bn. EBITDA Valuation and view:
margins declined by 16.6pp QoQ (~10.4pp YoY) to 13.5% (v/s With revival of demand in South India, we believe the worst of the
our estimate of 20.9%).However, It benefited from a positive pricing scenario is behind us. We expect prices to improve from
contribution from the IPL (~Rs.45mn) and shipping business current levels, but they would be significantly lower than peak
(~Rs.45mn). Pure cement EBITDA/ton declined by Rs.32/bag to prices of 2QFY10. The pace of capacity addition in South India is
Rs.19/bag. Reported PAT of Rs.348mn benefited from a Rs.117mn expected to slow, as only 12m-13mt of new capacities are expected
translational forex gain on US$75m FCCBs. Adjusted PAT degrew to commence operations over the next 18 months (against 30mt
by 61% YoY and 80% QoQ to Rs.271mn. All round cost pressure commissioning operations in the past 18 months). At 10% growth,
on the company resulted in a Rs.11/bag QoQ cost increase, largely the southern market would require incremental production of 8mt
driven by Rs.6/bag increase in freight cost. Freight cost push is a a year. Improved prices, coupled with strong volume growth would
reflection of exploring farther markets and change in billing for drive improvement in performance from the bottom levels of
clinker sales. 3QFY10.
Demand outlook improving, stabilization to be gradual: STOCK PERFORMANCE (1 YEAR)
The management indicated that the demand outlook in South India
is improving. In 9MFY10, South India had grown by just 5% (v/s India Cements
13.3% pan-India growth), impacted by just 3.5% growth in
Karnataka and negative growth in Andhra Pradesh. However, in
December 2009 demand in these markets picked up. Cement
demand in Karnataka grew by 12% and in AP it grew by 10%.
Improved demand in South India coupled with logistical bottlenecks
resulted in a recovery in cement prices. Current realizations are
~Rs.10/bag higher than the trough and at par with average
realizations for 3QFY10. While the company expects further
improvement in cement prices as demand improves, excess capacity

MOSt Wealth 3
 New Research Reports

Union Bank of India

27th January 10 / CMP: Rs.263

YEAR NET INCOME PAT EPS EPS P/E P/BV CAR ROE ROA P/ABV
END (RS. MN) (RS. MN) ( RS. ) GROWTH (%) (X) (X) (% ) (%) (%) (X)
3/09A 52,961 17,266 34.2 24.5 7.7 1.9 13.3 27.2 1.21 1.9
3/10E 60,189 20,633 40.8 19.5 6.4 1.5 12.6 26.1 1.17 1.6
3/11E 72,754 24,748 49.0 19.9 5.4 1.2 12.4 25.4 1.18 1.3
3/12E 86,165 29,386 58.2 18.7 4.5 1.0 12.2 24.6 1.17 1.1

NII grows 23%, margins expand 37bp QoQ

NIM increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising 37bp QoQ
to 2.71% and NII grew 23% QoQ (declined 5% YoY on a higher
base). Yield on funds was stable at 7.96%. Cost of funds declined
42bp QoQ to 5.39%. We expect NIM to expand going forward,
driven mainly by expansion in yields and controlled cost of funds.
The management expects margins to reach ~2.8% by 4QFY10
due to: 1) further expansion in CD ratio driven by loan off-take,
and 2) repayment/repricing of bulk deposits. The management
hopes to achieve a sustainable NIM of 3% in FY11
C-D ratio expands; CASA growth impressive:
Loans grew 7% QoQ to Rs1.06t (up 15% YoY on a higher base)
and deposits grew 1.4% QoQ and 17% YoY to Rs1.51t. CD ratio
expanded 380bp to 70.5% v/s 66.7% in 2QFY10 as incremental
loan growth exceeded deposit growth, leading to margin
expansion. Savings deposit growth of 27% is impressive compared
with peers. Overall CASA grew 24%, higher than deposit growth.
However, the CASA ratio declined marginally to 32.3% v/s 33%
in 2QFY10 as current account deposits declined 15% QoQ.
Strong traction in core fee income:
Other income grew 18% YoY backed by higher trading gains (up
30% YoY) and strong core fee income. Core fees (excluding forex)
grew 32% YoY (on a higher base), however forex income declined
20% YoY to Rs.830mn. Core fees growth has been impressive
over the past several quarters. Over the past six quarters the average
YoY growth has been 44%.
arising out of debt relief schemes to the extent of Rs.3bn or 15%
of the reported gross NPAs. Reported gross NPAs increased a mere
9% sequentially to Rs.20.9bn due to aggressive write-offs during
the quarter to contain the gross NPA ratio below 2%. Reported
provision coverage as a result of write-offs declined sharply to
70% from 88% in 2QFY10. However including technically written-
off accounts, the provision coverage remains comfortable at 80%.
The delinquency rate of 1.34% and slippage of Rs.9.7bn in 9MFY10
remains within our full year estimate of 1.6% and Rs.15bn.
Outstanding restructured standard assets (facility wise) remain
flattish at Rs.45bn or 4.5% of the loan book. However borrower
wise the number is at Rs.69bn.
Valuation and view:
We expect the bank to post EPS of Rs.49 in FY11 and Rs.58 in
FY12. We expect FY11 BV to be Rs.213 and FY12 BV to be Rs.260.
We expect RoA to sustain at 1.2% and RoE at 25%+. Union Bank
trades at 1.2x FY11E BV and 1x FY12E BV. Maintain Buy with a
target price of Rs.340, an upside of 29%.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (1 YEAR)
Union Bank of India

Asset quality deteriorates:

The bank added gross NPAs of Rs.4.7bn in 3QFY10 against Rs.3.1bn
in 2QFY10. In 9MFY10 it added Rs.9.7bn v/s Rs.6.1bn a year
earlier. Unlike BoB and PNB, Union Bank has not recognized NPAs

4 MOSt Wealth
 Model Portfolios

Select the portfolio that best suits your risk profile

Scrip MBP* Wtg.* The Sensex gained by 1263 points (7.6%) during the month of
AGGRESSIVE - High Risk, High Returns March 2010. We expect the momentum of 4QFY10 to sustain in
Bajaj Auto 1710 H FY11 and beyond. After two consecutive years of stagnation in
DLF 400 H Sensex EPS (at ~Rs800 during FY08-10), we expect Sensex EPS to
ICICI Bank 850 H
growth at 30% in FY11. In fact, we expect the strong growth
M&M 475 H
SBI 1,800 H trajectory to continue over the next four years and model Sensex
Anant Raj Industries 155 M EPS CAGR of ~23% during FY10-14. We remain positive on the
Bombay Rayon 260 M prospects of FII flows into India, strong macroeconomic resilience
Idea 66 M
and sustained growth, stable political regime, key reforms ahead
India Cement 160 M
IOC 300 M like Goods & Services Tax, Direct Tax Code, oil sector reforms and
JSW Steel 700 M high quality earnings growth.
Lupin 1,300 M We have done a few changes in our portfolio on the expectation
Nagarjuna Construction 176 M
Prakash Industries 225 M
of higher earning growth. We have added Nagarjuna Construction
Sterlite Industries 950 M (NCC) in place of IVRCL in Aggressive and Moderate portfolios.
Our Aggressive Portfolio works on the principle of ‘no pain no gain’. The target returns are We are neutral on IVRCL on account of higher debt, lower EBITDA
high at 30%+. Portfolio includes commodity, cyclical and small-cap stocks.
margin and lower order execution. NCC has a well diversified
Scrip MBP* Wtg.*
client base and has better geographic mix and so is better
MODERATE - Medium Risk, Medium Returns
positioned. NCC's order book as at the end of 3QFY10 stood at
DLF 400 H
Hero Honda 1,500 H Rs148b, book to bill 3.4x TTM revenues. We remain bullish, driven
M&M 475 H by increasing order intake, the possibility of earnings upgrades
SBI 1,800 H and improvement in embedded valuations for BOT and RE projects.
Anant Raj Industries 155 M
Bank of Baroda 505 M In telecom space, our preferred pick is IDEA and replaces RCOM
Cipla 330 M from Aggressive portfolio and Bharti from Moderate and Defensive
GSK Consumer 990 M portfolios. We are bullish on Idea on account of better visibility
GSK Pharma 1,400 M on earnings compared to RCOM. We believe that Bharti's recent
Idea 66 M
India Cement 160 M
acquisition of Zain is expensive. We expect IDEA's consolidated
IOC 300 M revenues to grow 13% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs33b. IDEA trades at
JSW Steel 700 M EV/EBITDA of 8.3x.
Nagarjuna Construction 176 M
We remain invested in M&M, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto after
Prakash Industries 225 M
Sterlite Industries 950 M impressive March 2010 Auto sales volumes. We are bullish on
Some moderation is achieved in this portfolio by investing in large and growth stocks banks and remain invested in SBI, Bank of Baroda and ICICI Bank.
available at value. The aim is to generate 20%+ annualized returns with less risk.
We expect realty sector to report better Q4 results and remain
Scrip MBP* Wtg.*
invested in DLF and Anantraj in Aggressive, Moderate and Defensive
DEFENSIVE - Low Risk, Low Returns
portfolios.
Gail 370 H
Hero Honda 1,500 H Allocation (%)
M&M 475 H Sector Agg. Mod. Def.
SBI 1800 H Automobiles 20 20 20
Anant Raj Industries 155 M Banking 20 15 20
Bank of Baroda 505 M Pharma 5 10 10
BHEL 2400 M Telecom 5 5 5
Blue Star 330 M Cement 5 5 5
BPCL 535 M Others - - 5
Cipla 330 M FMCG - 5 10
Colgate Palmolive 544 M Metals 15 15 -
GSK Consumer 990 M
Real Estate 15 15 5
GSK Pharma 1,400 M
Infrastructure 5 5 -
Idea 66 M
Oil & Gas 5 5 15
India Cement 160 M
Shriram Transport 330 M Textile 5 - -
Some moderation is achieved in this portfolio by investing in large and growth stocks Engineering - - 5
available at value. The aim is to generate 20%+ annualized returns with less risk. Total 100 100 100
MBP* :Maximum Buying Price. One should not buy the stock if Price is above MBP.
Additions or deletions of stocks are being communicated through our morning conference
W t g . * :Weightage refers to the size of the position recommended. H-10%, M-5% calls, Most Market Action emails or on AWACS during market hours.

MOSt Wealth 5
 Perspective

India Strategy
In our India Strategy for the quarter ended December 2009, we had said that we see the beginning of a new cycle of earnings growth.
Corporate performance for the quarter ending March 2010 should confirm that this new cycle is not only in motion but gaining momentum.
We expect our Universe (ex RMs) to report an all-time high PAT of Rs.575bn in 4QFY10, breaching the previous peak of Rs.542bn in
2QFY09. In fact, 4QFY10 would be a historic quarter not only in terms of absolute quantum of profit but also in terms of YoY growth (post
June 2007).
Roots of earnings growth firmly entrenched:
We expect MOSL Universe earnings growth to be 33% in 4QFY10, the strongest in several quarters, taking absolute profits to a new high.
All sectors will report positive growth, with the exception of Telecom. 25 of the 30 Sensex stocks will report positive earnings growth in
4QFY10. We expect the momentum of 4QFY10 to sustain in FY11 and beyond. We will not be surprised if the eventual earnings growth
over FY10-14 beats our estimate of 23% CAGR. Importantly, along with growth, the quality of earnings growth would also improve. We
expect Sensex RoE to bottom out in FY10 and cross the longperiod average of 18% by FY12.
NTD era provides fertile soil for "growth unlimited":
In 2007, we launched our landmark India NTD (Next Trillion Dollar) report. This report brought out a simple, yet profound, fact - it took
India 60 years since independence to generate the first trillion dollars of GDP, while the next trillion dollars (NTD) would take only 5-6 years.
This NTD era spells "unlimited growth" for several businesses, throwing up several investment themes and opportunities.
In our India Strategy for the quarter ended December 2009, we had carried out a detailed bottom-up exercise of estimating earnings for our
Universe through FY14. Sensex earnings is expected to grow at 23% CAGR over FY10-14 (v/s -1.8% over FY08-10E and 25.1% over FY03-
08), while we estimate aggregate earnings growth for our Universe at 20% CAGR (v/s 6% over FY08-10E and 25.4% over FY03-08). In this
issue, we carry out a relatively microscopic analysis to identify the key stimulants in respective sectors that would fuel such high growth.
Caterpillars to watch for:
Even as the market blossoms, nourished by the deep roots of earnings growth, it needs to watch out for caterpillars that could gnaw on
the young shoots of market appreciation. These are: (1) interest rate cycle, (2) uncertainty of monsoons, (3) runaway oil prices, and (4) FII
flows. Given RBI's resolve to aggressively tackle inflation and the government's Rs.4.5tn borrowing program in FY11, a short-term spike in
interest rates is imminent. Also, crude prices are at an 18-month high of US$85/bbl. At crude price of US$80/bbl, underrecovery could be
Rs.875bn in FY11, up from Rs.462bn in FY10. Runaway oil prices are reemerging as a key risk, in our opinion.
High inflation and the resultant policy measure of raising interest rates is a short-term concern, in our view. But, it could be seriously
aggravated if compounded by weak monsoons. 2009 was India's worst drought year. However, empirical evidence suggests that 2010 is
unlikely to be a drought year. Agriculture GDP usually recovers strongly in the year following the drought, driving up overall GDP growth
and stock market returns. There is a strong correlation between FII inflows and stock market returns in India. If FII flows to India were to
slow down or reverse, Indian markets could deliver negative returns. However, we remain positive on the prospects of FII flows into India.
Market valuations not cheap, but downside limited to 10%:
Following the 81% appreciation in the last one year, Indian markets are no longer cheap. In terms of P/E, the Sensex is currently at 17x
FY11E earnings - 17% premium to the long-period average. Likewise, in terms of P/BV, the Sensex is currently at 2.8x FY11E book value -
16% premium to the long-period average.
Even if the market were to revert to long-period average (LPA) valuations, the implied downside is only 10-15%. However, it could also be
argued that for the next 3-4 years, the market may merit premium valuations, as: (1) earnings growth rate of 23% is higher than the LPA
of 14%, and (2) RoE too is expected to cross LPA shortly. Therefore, current valuations might hold, in which case market returns should
track earnings CAGR of 20- 25%. We expect markets to remain range-bound in FY11 and choose stocks offering growth at reasonable
valuations for our portfolio.

6 MOSt Wealth
 Sight
Opportunity

For further details : Call your Relationship Manager or

Contact us: +91 (022) 3089 6680 SMS: MOSL INFO <Type Your Query> to 575753 Email : info@motilaloswal.com
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Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and should not be construed as any investment, legal or taxation advice. Motilal Oswal Securities Limited
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The material/ charts contained in this document are based on information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. The report is based upon information that MOSt
considers reliable, however, MOSt does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Further MOSt does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness
and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this report, no such party will assume any liability for the same. The report / recommendations/ trading calls/
opinions contained in the report are the personal views and opinions of the author and are not to be construed as advice. MOSt takes no responsibility for any loss made in investment in any
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Instruments are subject to market risks and returns may fluctuate depending on various factors. Past performance of the products/instruments does not indicate the future prospects &
performance thereof. Such past performance may not be sustained in future. The investors understand that the investment in any product/instrument including but not limited to Derivatives,
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19 MOSt Wealth
Disclosure of Interest Statement: The MOSt group and its Directors own shares in the following companies covered in this report: Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Birla Corporation, GSK
Pharma, Hero Honda, Hindalco, IOC, Marico, Oriental Bank, Siemens and State Bank.
MOSt has broking relationships with a few of the companies covered in this report.
MOSt is engaged in providing investment-banking services in the following companies covered in this report: Sintex Industries
This information is subject to change without any prior notice. MOSt reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time.
Nevertheless, MOSt is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries.
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