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Volume 2.4
April 13, 2010
Still Bullish
In this issue we touch on four new developments that support a continued bullish
stance on risk assets. However, we still have long‐term concerns which relate to the
potential unwinding of the private debt supercycle and its replacement with a new public‐
sector debt supercycle. In addition, unwinding the great reflation in an orderly manner will
remain a serious global challenge. Surprises are likely; volatility and uncertainty are almost
certainly going to rise.
The power of liquidity to drive markets in the face of macro‐economic concerns has
once again been clearly demonstrated over the past 13 months. The liquidity environment
continues to be positive for risk assets, market prices are likely to remain on an upward
trend, mergers and acquisitions will increase and investment funds will continue to seek
out good value.
1. The Economy
Brighter headline news on the economy and profits has lifted confidence.
Unquestionably, the economic news is better, in particular profits and corporate
liquidity, as we discussed in the February 25th 2010 Letter (volume 2.2).
However, the big danger in the short run is a recovery that is too strong, causing
a rekindling of private borrowing and household spending, which would clash
© Boeckh Investments Inc., 1750‐1002 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec. H3A 3L6 Tel. 514‐904‐0551, info@bccl.ca
with burgeoning public‐sector borrowing. The fact is that much of the recent
economic strength is a lagged effect of the stimulus program. In addition,
comparisons are being made with very depressed year ago numbers. Our view,
which will be developed more fully in the next issue, is that the underlying
economy is still pretty weak and will gravitate towards very sub‐par recovery
growth of around 2%. That is far below the usual post‐recession rebounds of the
past. Two huge impediments to growth are household deleveraging and a heavy
fiscal drag. Recent data on consumer debt is consistent with this view as
February data shows a nearly 6% decline. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
has projected the structural component of the fiscal deficit to contract by almost
4.5% of GDP in the next two years, a huge hit to the economy. In addition, state
and local governments are attempting to slash deficits by cutting expenditures
and raising taxes, creating additional fiscal drag.
A 2% growth scenario would be bullish for financial markets. It would
allow profits and productivity to keep rising, hold price inflation in check, support
further global rebalancing, and allow the Fed to keep rates low and liquidity
plentiful. This would continue to anchor long rates at close to current levels.
Fiscal restraint would help to dissipate fears of runaway government debt:GDP
ratios.
However, it must be recognized that probably never in the post‐war
period has there been such a wide dispersion of economic views. They range
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from the recession double dippers to the runaway boomers, and everything in
between. The reality is that investors have zero confidence in any particular
economic view and should treat forecasts with much more scepticism than ever,
including our own. It is a fact of life that we have to remain pragmatic and
flexible in our views and watch carefully for the key benchmarks that would
require a change in view.
2. China and the floating of the RMB
The U.S.‐China back door deal has yet to be revealed in full, but the
outline is clear. Bluffmanship on both sides worked; the U.S. got a face‐saving
deal on the RMB and called off the currency manipulation threat. China got a
protectionist Congress off its back for the time being. The key part of the deal,
we would guess, is that China will continue to support the U.S. dollar and U.S.
Treasury bonds, something it would have to do anyway. The wolf is satisfied and
the sheep is intact.
The Chinese will widen the RMB range around the dollar peg and will
allow a controlled upward float as was the case before 2008. This will make little
or no real difference unless the move is huge, which is very unlikely. China’s
productivity growth in its modern, manufacturing, export‐oriented sector is
about 15% per year, wage growth maybe 10%, probably less. Therefore, the solid
peg against the dollar since 2008 meant about a 5% real effective exchange rate
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devaluation annually against the dollar and a much bigger devaluation against
currencies that rose against the dollar. Floating up at 5% per year would mean a
stable and still grossly undervalued RMB against the dollar. Fred Bergsten of The
Peterson Institute estimates the undervaluation at around 40%. This will be only
partially reduced, and very slowly at that. China will continue to run huge current
account surpluses and grow rapidly.
The upward “crawling” peg will create expectations of further rises and
hence capital inflows and liquidity in China will likely increase. Asset price gains
may accelerate. The Chinese stock market is still about 10% below the recovery
high of last summer and is not a bubble. It appears ready to break out to the
upside so investors should stay long China and ignore the bubble worries unless
things get really frothy.
3. Greece and the Putative Bailout
Market forces once again forced the hand of the EU authorities as Greek
bond yields blew out to a record high vis‐à‐vis German yields last week. Fitch,
the bond rating agency, sharply downgraded Greece (after the markets spoke, as
is always the case). There now appears to be a €45 billion loan package on the
table (details lacking as usual) to deter “speculators”, the usual scapegoated
villains. Fortunately, the IMF appears, finally, to be in on the package. If there is
clear, transparent follow through, this would make it far more convincing. Left
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on their own, the EU authorities failed miserably to convince anyone that they
were up to the job of salvaging Greece’s catastrophic finances. Assuming this
deal gets done, the Greek economy will go through the ringer for the next few
years. Sovereign spreads of high risk countries will narrow, but only for a while
because the Greek saga will reappear. In the meantime, the bailout is bullish for
the U.S. bond market in the short‐term, in that it will tend to dampen upward
pressure on rates and greatly diminish the threat that the Fed would have to
tighten prematurely for purely financial reasons (dollar selling and fear driven
dumping of U.S. bonds) and allow it to keep liquidity plentiful and short rates
low. This is, naturally, bullish for U.S. stocks.
It also needs to be emphasized that Greece is, in fact, the canary in the
coal mine. It is a classic case of a country that has hit the financial wall. Its deficit
and debt levels at 13% and 120% of GDP respectively are appalling in their own
right. The country’s borrowing costs are far above any possible growth rate and
the country is in a huge primary (i.e. excluding interest payments) deficit
position. In addition, Greece’s savings have been so low for so long that it has
had to rely on heavy foreign capital inflows (U.S. watchers: does this sound
familiar?). Thus, foreign debt has skyrocketed. Without a devaluation option, it
must reduce living standards by massive internal deflation. Strikes will become
endemic and that will poison the tourist industry, one of the primary export
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earners. It is far from clear that Greece will make it, so don’t bet on Greek/EU
stability lasting very long.
The good news out of the Greek tragedy is that many other governments
have watched the canary get very sick and have taken, or will soon take, drastic
action to slash deficits. This includes many state and local governments in the
U.S. Fiscal drag (decline in structural deficits) on a global scale will be massive in
the next few years and hence fears over a wide‐spread sovereign debt crisis may
have triggered a constructive reaction of meaningful fiscal restraint. If so, it will
be good for bond yields, but not so good for growth.
4. Commodity Prices and the Dollar
Recent break outs to new highs in the bell weather copper, aluminum
and crude oil markets, better action in the gold market and general commodity
indexes reinforce the view that the global economic recovery, on balance,
remains intact and could strengthen for a while. However, some areas, notably
the EU, remain weak. Many parts of the world—for example, China, South
America, Canada, Australia are surprisingly strong, showing the benefits of nearly
free money and the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus. However, some cooling is
needed if a tightening of monetary policy in the strong areas is to be avoided.
While potentially painful in the near term, it would be conducive to long‐term
stability. Fortunately, that is likely to happen.
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The U.S. trade‐weighted dollar has been firm since December, driven in
good part by weakness in the Greek‐damaged euro. The yen has also been very
soft and has broken down to a new low against the dollar in recent weeks. Gold
has been the mirror image of the trade‐weighted dollar for the past year (and
most of the time historically). Recently, gold has begun to firm up without the
dollar going to new lows. This could be the beginning of a decoupling or, possibly
an implied forecast of a weaker dollar ahead. Either way, it is a relative trend
that needs to be monitored closely by investors, as gold looks to be heading
higher, driven by an evolving “peak gold” thesis and longer‐term fears of
monetary debauchery.
To summarize, we remain bullish on U.S. equities and the equities of countries such as
Canada and Australia that are beneficiaries of the world recovery. Emerging market equities
have outperformed developed country markets and they are likely to remain strong. China in
particular, looks set to move higher.
The key benchmarks for investors that we have pointed to as a gauge of potential risk—
U.S. Treasury yields, corporate spreads and the dollar—all remain relatively stable. U.S. bond
yields have drifted higher as we expected. This is not yet a cause for worry so long as the dollar,
U.S. stock market and profits remain stable to rising.
We also want to emphasize that our long‐held view on the importance of wealth
preservation remains intact. The financial world is still fragile, the recovery artificial in many
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ways and there are plenty of things which can turn financial markets sour on short notice.
Therefore, bullishness should be tempered with appropriate caution and liquidity positions
should be kept above normal, even though it means realizing more modest returns for the time
being. The impulse to get more bullish and less liquid as markets rise should be resisted by long‐
term, conservative investors.
Tony & Rob Boeckh
April 13, 2010
www.BoeckhInvestmentLetter.com
info@bccl.ca
*All chart data from IHS/Global Insights, and may not be reproduced without written consent.
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Charts: Stock Markets
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Commodities
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Exchange Rates
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Interest Rates
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