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230 bn, with one provisional bid for pan-India spectrum touching Rs 57.1 BSETCG INDEX 13,984 (0.6) (0.1) (1.6)
bn on Saturday. In a nutshell, the government has already mopped BSEOIL INDEX 10,090 (0.5) (0.8) (4.2)
around 66% of the budgeted Rs 350 bn. (FE) CNXMcap Index 7,891 (0.4) 3.8 1.5
BSESMCAP INDEX 9,017 (0.2) 6.1 0.5
4 Emami Group is close to acquiring an Egyptian personal care products Value traded (Rs cr)
manufacturer. The move is part of the groups corporate strategy to 16 Apr 10 % Chg - Day
bolster Emami's growth at an accelerated pace of 50-60 % CAGR over
the next three years. (ET) Cash BSE 4,237 (7.1)
Cash NSE 12,599 (18.2)
4 A leading private oil refiner is willing to build a well-head refinery at Derivatives 75,830 2.9
Cairn India's Barmer oilfield after the Rajasthan government has agreed
to give tax concessions, officials in the know said. Cairn India and some Net inflows (Rs cr)
state owned oil companies could also be equity partners, a Rajasthan 15 Apr 10 % Chg MTD YTD
government official said on condition of anonymity. (ET)
FII 343 (44) 5,064 24,876
4 HDFC Bank, the country's second-largest private bank, has moved to the Mutual Fund (258) (29) (902) (6,738)
top of the pile in the retail banking segment, displacing ICICI Bank as the
recovery in demand and robust economic growth helped the bank to FII open interest (Rs cr)
lend more to customers buying cars, homes and two-wheelers. HDFC 15 Apr 10 % Chg
Bank saw record lending of Rs 40 bn in March in Auto, Homes & Credit FII Index Futures 14,410 4.0
Cards. (ET) FII Index Options 39,699 0.6
4 Unitech Group, which runs the country's second-largest developer, FII Stock Futures 29,988 0.3
Unitech Ltd, launched a Rs 3.0 bn venture capital fund to raise funds for FII Stock Options 974 1.8
its slum redevelopment projects in Mumbai, a top group executive said.
(BS) Advances / Declines (BSE)
16 Apr 10 A B S Total % total
4 Videocon Group, a diverse business coglomerate, is planning to double
capacity of its proposed power plant project at Pipavav in Gujarat. The Advances 66 709 176 951 37
group's power arm, Videocon Power, is in the process of setting up a Declines 137 1111 254 1,502 59
1200 MW coal fired power project at Pipavav for an outlay of Rs 60 bn. Unchanged 0 79 11 90 4
"We have acquired land for the project and have also achieved financial Commodity % Chg
closure. We are looking at doubling the power capacity by Pipavav. The
company has already begun the necessary spadework and have already 16 Apr 10 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
placed order with BHEL (Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd) for machineries for Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 82 (1.7) 1.4 3.6
1200 MW," Venugopal Dhoot, chairman said. (BS) Gold (US$/OZ) 1,137 (1.9) 2.6 (0.2)
4 In a first, two Indian drug firms, Lupin Ltd and Dr Reddy's Ltd, have Silver (US$/OZ) 18 (3.7) 4.0 (5.8)
made it to the list of top 10 generic companies in the fiercely competitive
US market, placed eighth and tenth, respectively, in 2009. These Debt / forex market
16 Apr 10 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths
companies have improved their standing in the $34-billion US generic
market despite their apparent failure in getting market exclusivity under 10 yr G-Sec yield % 7.84 7.89 7.76 7.63
the highly-lucrative-yet-risky route of Para IV filings. (FE) Re/US$ 44.3 44.4 45.6 45.6
Sensex
18,000
15,750
13,500
11,250
9,000
Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10
BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange
MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2
MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Financial outlook
n We maintain our revenue estimates and expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of
16.5% between FY09-FY11.
n Operating margins of the company have shown an improvement in 9MFY10
and correspondingly we expect operating margins to improve in FY10 as com-
pared to FY09. We maintain our estimates and expect margins to be 10% for
FY10 and FY11.
n With strong revenue growth and excellent margins, we expect net profits to
grow at a CAGR of 23% between FY09-FY11.
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3
MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Core business valuation 135 Based on 15x one year forward P/E multiple
BOT projects 15 Based on NPV and P/BV methodology
Bangalore mysore project 1
Meerut Muzaffpur project 2
Bangalore elevated corridor 6
Orai Bhognipur project 4
Pondicherry tindivaram project 2
Power projects 3 Based on P/BV methodology
Himachal Sorang 2
NCC Power project 1
Real estate 21 Based on P/BV of 1x of investments
Land bank development 13
Vizag development 2 Sum of the parts valuation(FY11)
Jubilee hills,Hyd 3
Telapur project,Hyd 4
Total value per share 175
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4
MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Summary table Strong business model - well capitalized for swift business ramp
up; expect healthy growth in AUM
(Rs bn) FY09 FY10E FY11E
n STFC has a strong pan-India presence through its network of over 480
Interest Income 37.2 44.9 51.2
Interest expenses 19.8 23.0 25.4
branches; it controls significant market share of over 20% in the pre-owned CV
NII 17.4 21.9 25.7 (largely LCVs) financing segment. The company provides finance to small and
Other Income 0.1 0.3 0.7 individual truck owners to buy pre-owned CVs, usually 5-12 year old. It holds
Total Income 17.5 22.2 26.5 expertise in loan origination, valuations and collections. The strong relationship
Optg Profit 12.7 16.8 20.4
based business model developed over three decades is difficult to be imitated by
PAT 6.1 8.5 11.3
Gross NPA (%) 2.1 2.0 1.5
competitors. It further endeavors to expand its market share with its new initia-
Net NPA (%) 0.8 0.7 0.7 tives of vehicle trading through Automalls and tie-ups with over 500 private fin-
NIM (%) 8.92 9.19 9.28 anciers.
RoA (%) 3.12 3.43 3.90
RoE (%) 29.53 27.81 26.54 n The company has raised Rs. 5.75bn ($ 125mn) through a qualified institutional
Divi. Payout (%) 1.05 1.28 1.79 placement route, leading to an equity dilution of close to 5%. STFC has healthy
EPS (Rs) 29.98 36.44 47.05 liquidity in its balances sheet, with a CAR of 17% and cash and cash equivalents
BV (Rs) 113.83 158.73 195.79
(liquid investments) amounting to Rs.59.61bn (during 9MFY10).
Adj. BV (Rs) 106.79 152.23 187.87
P/E (x) 18.61 15.31 11.86 n STFC is gearing up for a faster advances growth in the backdrop of improved
P/ABV (x) 5.23 3.67 2.97
freight rates and the broad base revival seen in automobile demand. We expect
Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private a 27% yoy growth in STFC's AUM to Rs. 294bn (including both off books and
Client Research
on book assets) during FY10 and 20% yoy growth to Rs.354bn in FY11.
n STFC has also forayed into equipment financing business, which will largely fo-
cus on construction equipments. Initial capital requirement for the new com-
pany would be close to Rs. 1-1.5bn. We opine that the company is expected to
benefit from huge infrastructure spending envisaged during the eleventh five
year plan estimated at approximately $500bn
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MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
n STFC will also set up Auto Malls in different parts of the country, refurbish and
sell pro-owned commercial, vehicles under the name "New Look", provide
web-based computerized touch screen kiosks in all the branches across the
country under the name 'One Stop', and will also provide a host of other busi-
ness services to the trucking community in the courtly under one roof. The sub-
sidiary will be earning fee income for these services rendered.
n The first such mall has become operational during Q4FY10. It is further planning
to open close to 50-60 Automalls across India. Its fee based from CV trading
business for Q3FY10 stood at Rs.73.9mn and Rs.223.6mn for 9MFY10.
RoA & RoE (%) NIM improved during FY10; interest rate hardening likely during
FY11 notwithstanding, expect NIM to remain stable
ROA (% - LHS)
RoE (% - RHS) n STFC is present in the high yield pre-owned CV financing segment; it has been
able to maintain attractive NIM of around 8-9%. On the back of softening of
5.0 35.0
interest rates, STFC's NIM is likely to remain steady at 9.2% (8.9% in FY09) as
3.8 30.0 cost of funds had eased during FY10.
2.5 25.0 n Although, with the tightening of liquidity in the system, sign of interest rates
1.3 20.0 hardening are evident. The 10-year G-sec yields have moved close to 8%. We
- 15.0
opine that, by reducing its reliance on bulk borrowings and considering fund
raising through NCD route STFC will be advantageous for STFC as it will aid
FY2010E
FY2011E
FY 2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
stable NIM. Additionally, sell down of loan book to banks (assets classified as
priory sector lending) will also help contain cost of funds.
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6
MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Source: BSE
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MORNING INSIGHT April 19, 2010
Gainers
ITC Ltd 269.1 2.4 5.7 3.0
Tata Steel 695.7 1.4 2.0 4.3
ICICI Bank 922.5 0.5 1.7 4.5
Losers
Reliance Ind 1,084 (0.6) (3.8) 4.2
Infosys Tech 2,789 (0.5) (2.2) 0.8
BHEL 2,494 (1.4) (1.9) 0.4
Source: Bloomberg
19-Apr ETC Networks, Hero Honda, Midas Pharma, Modern Steel, Sesa Goa,
Sonata Software, TCS earnings expected
20-Apr Axis Bank, Ballarpur Ind, BOC India, Great Offshore, GTL, HCL Tech, Jindal Saw,
Manali Petro, Reliance Indl Infra, Zee Ent. earnings expected
21-Apr HCL Tech, Hindustan Zinc, Piramal Healthcare, Pennar Ind, Polaris Soft, TVS Motors
United Spirits, Zee News, earnings expected
Source: BSE
Research Team
Dipen Shah Apurva Doshi Saday Sinha Jayesh Kumar
IT, Media Logistics, Textiles, Mid Cap Banking, Economy Economy
dipen.shah@kotak.com doshi.apurva@kotak.com saday.sinha@kotak.com kumar.jayesh@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6301 +91 22 6621 6308 +91 22 6621 6312 +91 22 6652 9172
Sanjeev Zarbade Saurabh Gurnurkar Sarika Lohra Shrikant Chouhan
Capital Goods, Engineering Media, IT NBFCs Technical analyst
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com saurabh.gurnurkar@kotak.com sarika.lohra@kotak.com shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6305 +91 22 6621 6310 +91 22 6621 6313 +91 22 6621 6360
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