ECareers BB EL Manual XL PDF

eCareers Limited
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt
Third Edition
Lean Six Sigma Black Belt

Third Edition Manual
Based on Version 11.0XL Training Materials
Utilizing SigmaXL Statistical Software
An e-Careers Limited Publication
10 Riverside Business Park

Stony Common Road
Stansted Mountfitchet
Essex. CM24 8PL. United Kingdom
Email: info@e-careers.com
(UK 0044) (0) 1279 799 444
2013 e-Careers Limited. All rights are reserved. Individual Copy. No

portion of these materials may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a
retrieval system or translated into any language in any form or by any means.
Table of Contents
Page
Define Phase
Understanding Six Sigma...... 1
Six Sigma Fundamentals........... 22
Selecting Projects..... 42
Elements of Waste.....64
Wrap Up and Action Items....77
Measure Phase
Welcome to Measure........83
Process Discovery..86
Six Sigma Statistics.....135
Measurement System Analysis.....168
Process Capability ... .202
Wrap Up and Action Items .223
Analyze Phase
Welcome to Analyze ...229
X Sifting.........232
Inferential Statistics.....259
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing....274
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1...290
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2 ..333
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1.362
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2.389
Wrap Up and Action Items ........409
Improve Phase
Welcome to Improve.......415
Process Modeling Regression...418
Advanced Process Modeling..436
Designing Experiments...464
Experimental Methods.479
Full Factorial Experiments......494
Fractional Factorial Experiments.......524
Wrap Up and Action Items..544
Control Phase
Welcome to Control550
Advanced Experiments...553
Advanced Capability....563
Lean Controls580
Defect Controls.595
Statistical Process Control..607
Six Sigma Control Plans.....648
Wrap Up and Action Items......668
Glossary
LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11
2013 e-Careers Limited
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Define Phase
Understanding Six Sigma
Welcome to the Black Belt Training Course.

This course has been designed to build your knowledge and capability to improve the
performance of processes and subsequently the performance of the business of which you are a
part. The focus of the course is process centric. Your role in process performance improvement
is to be through the use of the methodologies of Six Sigma, Lean and Process Management.
By taking this course you will have a well rounded and firm grasp of many of the tools of these
methodologies. We firmly believe this is one of the most effective classes you will ever take and it
is our commitment to assure that this is the case.
We begin in the Define Phase with Understanding Six Sigma.

Overview
The core fundamentals
of this phase are
Definitions, History,
Strategy, Problem
Solving and Roles and
Responsibilities.

Definitions
History
We will examine the

meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
Strategy
Problem Solving
Roles & Responsibilities
Six Sigma Fundamentals
Selecting Projects
Elements of Waste
Wrap Up & Action Items
Six Sigma Vocabulary

In order to do
something
differently, we
must first learn
the vocabulary
and understand
the meaning of
the various
terms. Please
read and be
familiar with
these terms.

Definition of Six Sigma
Six Sigma represents a great deal to a business enterprise. At the basic level it is a process
improvement tool set yet when linked to corporate strategy it becomes an operating philosophy of
great assistance to the accomplishment of corporate objectives.
What is Six Sigmaas a Methodology?
As a methodology to be
followed by
practitioners Six Sigma
is a standardized
approach to problem
solving or opportunity
grasping. Following the
DMAIC approach
through a Six Sigma
project creates a
framework whereby
one has the greatest
probability of arriving at
a true solution with
associated means of
retaining the gains.
Additionally, with Six
Sigma broadly based
throughout the
company it creates a standardized way for co-workers to communicate thereby improving
understanding. Also, with its commitment to data and specific operating metrics a system is
established whereby process performance can be tracked in a succinct manner. Should any process
begin yielding out-of-spec performance it is known immediately.

What is Six Sigmaas a Business Strategy?
Six Sigma is also a
business strategy
that provides new
knowledge and
capability to
employees so they
can better organize
the process activity
of the business,
solve business
problems and make
better decisions.
Using Six Sigma is
now a common way
to solve business
problems and
remove waste
resulting in
significant
profitability
improvements. In
addition to improving profitability, customer and employee satisfaction are also improved.
This pictorial depicts the percentage of data which falls between Standard Deviations within a
Normal Distribution. In this specific example, 99.73% of the data points fall within +/- 3 Standard
Deviations of the Mean; this is Six Sigma performance.
Those data points at the outer edge of the bell curve represent the greatest variation in our process.
They are the ones causing customer dissatisfaction and we want to eliminate them.
What is Six Sigmaas a Philosophy?
As a philosophy of
Operational Excellence, Six
Sigma has a targeted
quality performance level of
no more than 3.4 defects
per million opportunities.
When an output of a
process operates at this
quality performance, it is
said to be a Six Sigma
performing process. It
takes a great deal of effort
and time to move through
all the processes of a
company. However, that
effort is positively correlated
to the operating
performance of the
company.

What is Six Sigmaas a Process Measurement?
Additionally, Six Sigma is
a process measurement
and management
system that enables
employees and
companies to take a
process oriented view of
the entire business.
Using the various
concepts embedded in
Six Sigma, key
processes are identified,
the outputs of these
processes are prioritized,
the capability is
determined,
improvements are made,
if necessary, and a
management structure is
put in place to assure the ongoing success of the business.
With key metrics identified for processes a commonality of measurement is established for all
processes.
What is Six Sigmaas a Benchmark?
As you can see from this graphic, as the sigma performance level is improved the operating
efficiency improves yielding lower costs for the same output and more customer satisfying products
and services.

What is Six Sigmaas a Tool?
Six Sigma has not created
new tools. It is the
appropriate application of the
tools that makes all the
difference. This course
teaches the use of these
tools, equips a belt with the
knowledge of which should
be utilized when and what
the desired results of their
application is expected to be.
Additionally, the use of the
tools is additive; that is,
information garnered from
one leads to the use of
another until such time as
the sought after answers are
obtained.
What is Six Sigmaas a Tool?

This is a high level view of the approach used when conducting what is called a Six Sigma
Project. A Six Sigma project is a specific effort to fix a defined problem. We will be studying this
approach throughout most of this course.

What is Six Sigmaas a Goal?
To give you a better example the concept of the sigma level can be related to hanging fruit. The higher
the fruit, the more challenging it is to obtain. And, the more sophisticated the tools necessary to obtain
them.
Goal
highest level of process performance possible.
5+ Sigma
Sweet Fruit
Design for Six Sigma
Bulk of Fruit
Process
Characterization
and Optimization
3 - 5 Sigma
3 Sigma
1 - 2 Sigma
Low Hanging Fruit

Basic Tools of
Problem Solving
Ground Fruit
Simplify and
Standardize
History of Six Sigma
And so it begins..
1984 Bob Galvin of Motorola articulated the first objectives of a

Process Improvement Program
10x levels of improvement in service and quality by 1989
100x improvement by 1991
Six Sigma capability by 1992
Bill Smith, an engineer from Motorola, is the person credited as the father
of Six Sigma
1984 Texas Instruments and ABB Work closely with Motorola to

further develop Six Sigma
It continues..

History of Six Sigma (cont.)
1994 Application experts leave Motorola
1995 AlliedSignal begins Six Sigma initiative as directed by Larry

Bossidy
Captured the interest of Wall Street
1995 General Electric, led by Jack Welch, began the most widespread
undertaking of Six Sigma even attempted
1997 to Present: Six Sigma spans industries worldwide
Keeps getting better!!

And, as you may well know, Six Sigma has been embraced worldwide as a powerful and effective
process improvement methodology. Its history continues to be written
The Phase Approach of Six Sigma

Six Sigma created a realistic and quantifiable goal in terms of its target of 3.4 defects per million
operations. It was also accompanied by a methodology to attain that goal. That methodology
was a problem solving strategy made up of four steps: measure, analyze, improve and control.
When GE launched Six Sigma they improved the methodology to include the Define Phase.
Today the Define Phase is an important aspect to the methodology. Motorola was a mature culture
from a process perspective and didnt necessarily have a need for the Define Phase.
Most organizations today DEFINITELY need it to properly approach improvement projects.
As you will learn, properly defining a problem or an opportunity is key to putting you on the right
track to solve it or take advantage of it.
C h a m p io n
/
P ro ce s s
O w ner
DMAIC Phases Roadmap
Identify Problem A rea
D e fin e
Determine A ppropria te Project Focus

Estima te C O PQ
A ssess Sta bility, C apability, a nd Mea surement Systems
Identify a nd Prioritiz e A ll Xs
A n a ly z e
Mea sure
C harter Project
Im p r o v e
Identify, Prioritiz e, Select Solutions C ontrol or Eliminate Xs C a using Problems
C o n tr o l
Prove/ Disprove Impact Xs Ha ve O n Problem
Implement C ontrol Pla n to Ensure Problem Does N ot Return
Implement Solutions to C ontrol or Eliminate Xs C a using Problems
Verify Financia l Impact
This roadmap provides an overview of the DMAIC approach.

Define Phase Deployment
Business C a se
S elected
Here is a more granular

look of the Define
Phase.
N otify Belts and S takeholders
This is what you will

later learn to be a Level
2 Process Map.
C reate H ig h-Level Process Map
Determine A ppropriate Project Focus

(Pareto, Project Desirability)
Define & C harter Project
(Problem S tatement, O bjective, Primary Metric, S econdary Metric)
N
Estimate C O PQ
A pproved
Project
Focus
Recommend Project Focus

Y
C reate Team
C harter Team
Rea dy for Mea sure
10

Define Phase Deliverables
The Define Phase deliverables listed above are discussed throughout the Define course. By the
end of this course, you should understand what would be necessary to provide these
deliverables in a presentation.
Deliverables:
Charter Benefits Analysis
Team Members (Team Meeting Attendance)
Process Map high level
Primary Metric
Secondary Metric(s)
Lean Opportunities
Stakeholder Analysis
Project Plan
Issues and Barriers
Six Sigma Strategy

Six Sigma places the emphasis on the Process
Using a structured, data driven approach centered on the customer Six Sigma can resolve
business problems where they are rooted, for example:
Month end reports
Capital expenditure approval
New hire recruiting
Six Sigma is a Breakthrough Strategy
Widened the scope of the definition of quality
includes the value and the utility of
the product/service to both the
company and the customer.
Success of Six Sigma depends on the extent of

transformation achieved in each of these levels.
Six Sigma as a breakthrough strategy to process improvement. Many people mistakenly
assume that Six Sigma only works in manufacturing type operations. That is categorically
untrue. It applies to all aspects of either a product or service based business.
Wherever there are processes, Six Sigma can improve their performance.
11

Conventional Strategy
Conventional definitions of quality focused on conformance to standards.
Requirement
or
LSL
Bad
Target
Requirement
or
USL
Good
Bad
Conventional strategy was to create a product or service that met certain specifications.
Assumed that if products and services were of good quality then their
performance standards were correct.
Rework was required to ensure final quality.
Efforts were overlooked and unquantified (time, money, equipment
usage, etc).
The conventional strategy was to create a product or service that met certain specifications. It was
assumed that if products and services were of good quality, then their performance standards were
correct irrespective of how they were met.
Using this strategy often required rework to ensure final quality or the rejection and trashing of some
products and the efforts to accomplish this inspect in quality were largely overlooked and unquantified.
You will see more about this issues when we investigate the Hidden Factory.
Problem Solving Strategy
Th e P r o b le m S o lv in g M e th o d o lo g y fo cu s e s o n :
Understa nding the rela tionship between independent va ria bles

a nd the dependa nt va ria ble.
Identifying the vita l few independent va ria bles tha t effect the
dependa nt va ria ble.
O ptimiz ing the independent va ria bles so a s to control our
dependa nt va ria ble(s).
Monitoring the optimiz ed independent va ria ble(s).
Th e r e a r e m a n y e x a m p le s to d e s cr ib e d e p e n d a n t a n d
in d e p e n d e n t r e la tio n s h ip s .
W e describe this concept in terms of the equa tion:
This equa tion is a lso commonly referred to a s a tra nsfer function
Y=f (Xi)
Th is s im p ly s ta te s th a t Y is a fu n ctio n o f th e
X s . In o th e r w o r d s Y is d icta te d b y th e X s .
12

Problem Solving Strategy (contd)
Y = f(x) is a key concept that you must fully understand and remember. It is a fundamental principle
to the Six Sigma methodology. In its simplest form it is called cause and effect. In its more robust
mathematical form it is called Y is equal to a function of X. In the mathematical sense it is data
driven and precise, as you would expect in a Six Sigma approach. Six Sigma will always refer to an
output or the result as a Y and will always refer to an input that is associated with or creates the
output as an X.
Another way of saying this is that the output is dependent on the inputs that create it through the
blending that occurs from the activities in the process. Since the output is dependent on the inputs
we cannot directly control it, we can only monitor it.
Example
Y=f (Xi)
W h ich p ro ce s s v a ria b le s (ca u s e s ) h a v e critica l im p a ct o n
th e o u tp u t (e ffe ct)?
Crusher Yield
Time to Close
Tool
= f ( Feed, Speed,Material
Type , Wear , Lubricant )
Correct
Trial
Sub
Credit
Entry
= f (Balance
,Accounts,Accounts,Memos,Mistakes,X )
Applied
If we are so good at the Xs why are we

constantly testing and inspecting the Y?
Y=f(x) is a transfer function tool to determine what input variables (Xs) affect the output
responses (Ys). The observed output is a function of the inputs. The difficulty lies in determining
which Xs are critical to describe the behavior of the Ys.
The Xs determine how the Y performs.
In the Measure Phase we will introduce a tool to manage the long list of input variable and their
relationship to the output responses. It is the X-Y Matrix or Input-Output Matrix.
13

Y=f(X) Exercise
Exercise:
Consider establishing a Y = f(x) equation for a
simple everyday activity such as producing a
cup of espresso. In this case our output or Y is
espresso.
Espresso
=f
( X1 , X , X , X , X
n
2
3
4
Notes
14

Six Sigma Strategy
We use a variety of Six Sigma

tools to help separate the vital
few variables effecting our Y from
the trivial many.
Some processes contain many,
many variables. However, our Y is
not effected equally by all of them.
(X1)
(X10)
(X8)
(X7)
By focusing on the vital few we

instantly gain leverage.
(X4)
(X3)
(X5)
(X9)
Archimedes said: Give me a lever big enough and
fulcrum on which to place it and I shall move the world.
(X2)
(X6)
Archimedes not
shown actual size!
As you go through the application of DMAIC you will have a goal to find the root causes to the
problem you are solving. Remember that a vital component of problem solving is cause and effect
thinking or Y=f(X). To aid you in doing so, you should create a visual model of this goal as a funnel a funnel that takes in a large number of the trivial many contributors, and narrows them to the
vital few contributors by the time they leave the bottom.
At the top of the funnel you are faced with all possible causes - the vital few mixed in with the
trivial many. When you work an improvement effort or project, you must start with this type of
thinking. You will use various tools and techniques to brainstorm possible causes of performance
problems and operational issues based on data from the process. In summary, you will be applying
an appropriate set of analytical methods and the Y is a function of X thinking, to transform data
into the useful knowledge needed to find the solution to the problem. It is a mathematical fact that
80 percent of a problem is related to six or fewer causes, the Xs. In most cases it is between one
and three.
The goal is to find the one to three Critical Xs from the many potential causes when we start an
improvement project. In a nutshell, this is how the Six Sigma methodology works.
15

Breakthrough Strategy
P e rfo rm a n ce
Ba d
66-S
-Sig
igm
maa
BBre
a
k
th
ro
re a k th rouugghh
UC
UCLL
O ld S ta n d a r d
LC
LCLL
UC
UCLL
N e w S ta n d a r d
LC
LCLL
G ood
Tim e
Jurans Q uality Handbook by Joseph Juran
By utilizing the DMAIC problem solving methodology to identify and optimize the vital few variables we
will realize sustainable breakthrough performance as opposed to incremental improvements or, even
worse, temporary and non-sustainable improvement.
The image above shows how after applying the Six Sigma tools, variation stays within the specification
limits.
VOC, VOB, VOE
The
foundation of
Six Sigma
requires
Focus on the
voices of the
Customer, the
Business, and
the Employee
which
provides:
VOC is Customer Driven

VOB is Profit Driven
VOE is Process Driven
Awareness of the needs that are critical to the quality (CTQ) of our products and
services
Identification of the gaps between what is and what should be
Identification of the process defects that contribute to the gap
Knowledge of which processes are most broken
Enlightenment as to the unacceptable Costs of Poor Quality (COPQ)
Six Sigma puts a strong emphasis on the customer because they are the ones assessing our performance
and they respond by either continuing to purchase our products and services or.by NOT!
So, while the customer is the primary concern we must keep in mind the Voice of the Business how do we
meet the businesss needs so we stay in business? And we must keep in mind the Voice of the Employee how do we meet employees needs such that they remain employed by our firm and remain inspired and
productive?
16

Six Sigma Roles and Responsibilities
There are many roles and responsibilities for successful implementation of Six Sigma.
MBB
Black Belts
Green Belts
Executive Leadership
Champion/Process Owner
Master Black Belt
Black Belt
Green Belt
Yellow Belt
Yellow Belts
Just like a winning sports team, various people who have specific positions or roles have defined
responsibilities. Six Sigma is similar - each person is trained to be able to understand and perform the
responsibilities of their role. The end result is a knowledgeable and well coordinated winning business
team.
The division of training and skill will be delivered across the organization in such a way as to provide a
specialist: it is based on an assistant structure much as you would find in the medical field between a
Doctor, 1st year Intern, Nurse, etc. The following slides discuss these roles in more detail.
In addition to the roles described herein, all other employees are expected to have essential Six Sigma
skills for process improvement and to provide assistance and support for the goals of Six Sigma and the
company.
Six Sigma has been designed to provide a structure with various skill levels and knowledge for all
members of the organization. Each group has well defined roles and responsibilities and communication
links. When all individuals are actively applying Six Sigma principles, the company operates and performs
at a higher level. This leads to increased profitability, and greater employee and customer satisfaction.
Executive Leadership
Not all Six Sigma deployments are driven from the top by executive leadership. The data is clear,
however, that those deployments that are driven by executive management are much more successful
than those that are not.
Makes decision to implement the Six Sigma initiative and develop accountability
method
Sets meaningful goals and objectives for the corporation
Sets performance expectations for the corporation
Ensures continuous improvement in the process
Eliminates barriers
The executive leadership owns the vision for the business, they provide sponsorship and set
expectations for the results from Six Sigma. They enable the organization to apply Six Sigma and then
monitor the progress against expectations.
17

Champion/Process Owner
Champions identify and select the most meaningful projects to work on, they provide guidance to
the Six Sigma Belt and open the doors for the belts to apply the process improvement technologies.
Own project selection, execution control, implementation and realization
of gains
Own Project selection
Obtain needed project resources and eliminates roadblocks
Participate in all project reviews
Ask good questions
One to three hours per week commitment
Champions are responsible for functional business activities and to provide business deliverables to
either internal or external customers. They are in a position to be able to recognize problem areas of
the business, define improvement projects, assign projects to appropriate individuals, review projects
and support their completion. They are also responsible for a business roadmap and employee
training plan to achieve the goals and objectives of Six Sigma within their area of accountability.
Master Black Belt

MBB should be well versed with all aspects of Six Sigma, from technical applications to Project
Management. MBBs need to have the ability to influence change and motivate others.
Provide advice and counsel to Executive Staff
Provide training and support
MBB
- In class training
- On site mentoring
Develop sustainability for the business
Facilitate cultural change
A Master Black Belt is a technical expert, a go to person for the Six Sigma methodology. Master
Black Belts mentor Black Belts and Green Belts through their projects and support Champions. In
addition to applying Six Sigma, Master Black Belts are capable of teaching others in the practices
and tools.
Being a Master Black Belt is a full time position.
18

Black Belt
Black Belts are application experts and work projects within the business. They should be well
versed with The Six Sigma Technologies and have the ability to drive results.
Black Belts
Project team leader

Facilitates DMAIC teams in applying Six Sigma
methods to solve problems
Works cross-functionally
Contributes to the accomplishment of organizational
goals
Provides technical support to improvement efforts
A Black Belt is a project team leader, working full time to solve problems under the direction of a
Champion, and with technical support from the Master Black Belt. Black Belts work on projects
that are relatively complex and require significant focus to resolve. Most Black Belts conduct an
average of 4 to 6 projects a year -- projects that usually have a high financial return for the
company.
Green Belt
Green Belts are practitioners of Six Sigma Methodology and typically work within their
functional areas or support larger Black Belt Projects.
Well versed in the definition & measurement of critical processes
- Creating Process Control Systems
Green Belts
Typically works project in existing functional area

Involved in identifying improvement opportunities
Involved in continuous improvement efforts
- Applying basic tools and PDCA
Team members on DMAIC teams
- Supporting projects with process knowledge & data
collection
Green Belts are capable of solving problems within their local span of control. Green Belts remain in
their current positions, but apply the concepts and principles of Six Sigma to their job environment.
Green Belts usually address less complex problems than Black Belts and perform at least two projects
per year. They may also be a part of a Black Belts team, helping to complete the Black Belt project.
19

Yellow Belt
Yellow Belts
Provide support to Black Belts and Green Belts as

needed
May be team members on DMAIC teams
- Supporting projects with process
knowledge and data collection
Yellow Belts participate in process management activities. They fully understand the principles of Six
Sigma and are capable of characterizing processes, solving problems associated with their work
responsibilities and implementing and maintaining the gains from improvements. They apply Six
Sigma concepts to their work assignments. They may also participate on Green and Black Belt
projects.
The Life of a Six Sigma Belt
Training as a Six Sigma Belt can be one of the most rewarding undertakings of your career and
one of the most difficult.
You can expect to experience:
Hard work (becoming a Six Sigma Belt is not easy)

Long hours of training
Be a change agent for your organization
Work effectively as a team leader
Prepare and present reports on progress
Receive mentoring from your Master Black Belt
Perform mentoring for your team members
ACHIEVE RESULTS!
Youre going places!!
20

Black & Green Belt Certification
To achieve certification, Belts typically must::
Complete all course work:
- Be familiar with tools and their application
- Practice using tools in theoretical situations
- Discuss how tools will apply to actual projects
Demonstrate application of learning to training project:
- Use the tools to effect a financially measurable
and significant business impact through their
projects
- Show ability to use tools beyond the training
environment
Must complete two projects within one year from beginning of training
Well be
watching!!
Achieve results and make a difference

Submit a final report which documents tool understanding and
application as well as process changes and financial impact for each
project
Organizational Behaviors
All players in the Six Sigma process must be willing to step up and act according to the Six Sigma
set of behaviors.
Leadership by example: walk the talk
Encourage and reward individual initiative
Align incentive systems to support desired behaviors
Eliminate functional barriers
Embrace systems thinking
Balance standardization with flexibility
Six Sigma is a system of improvement. It develops people skills and capability for the participants. It
consists of proven set of analytical tools, project-management techniques, reporting methods and
management methods combined to form a powerful problem-solving and business-improvement
methodology. It solves problems, resulting in increased revenue and profit, and business growth.
The strategy of Six Sigma is a data-driven, structured approach to managing processes, quantifying
problems, and removing waste by reducing variation and eliminating defects.
The tactics of Six Sigma are the use of process exploration and analysis tools to solve the equation
of Y = f(X) and to translate this into a controllable practical solution.
As a performance goal, a Six Sigma process produces less than 3.4 defects per million
opportunities. As a business goal, Six Sigma can achieve 40% or more improvement in the
profitability of a company. It is a philosophy that every process can be improved, at breakthrough
levels.
21

At this point, you should be able to:
Describe the objectives of Six Sigma
Describe the relationship between variation and sigma
Recognize some Six Sigma concepts
Recognize the Six Sigma implementation model
Describe the general roles and responsibilities in Six
Sigma
You have now completed Define Phase Understanding Six Sigma.
Notes
22
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Define Phase
Now we will continue in the Define Phase with the Six Sigma Fundamentals.
The output of the Define Phase is a well developed and articulated project. It has been correctly
stated that 50% of the success of a project is dependent on how well the effort has been defined.
Theres that Y=f(X) thinking again.
23

Overview
of this phase are
Process Maps, Voice of
the Customer, Cost of
Poor Quality and
Process Metrics.
U n d e r s ta n d in g S ix S ig m a
S ix S ig m a Fu n d a m e n ta ls
PPro
roce
cessss M
Maa ppss
We will examine the

meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
VV ooice
ice oof f th
thee CCuussto
tom
m eerr
CCoosst t oof f PPoooor
r Q
Q uuaa lity
lity
PPro
roce
cessss M
Meetr
trics
ics
S e le ctin g P r o je cts
Ele m e n ts o f W a s te
W ra p U p & A ctio n Ite m s
What is a Process?
W h y h a v e a p ro ce s s fo cu s ?
So we can understand how and why work g ets done
To characteriz e customer & supplier relationships
To manag e for maximum customer satisfaction while utiliz ing
minimum resources
To see the process from start to finish as it is cu rr e n tly being
performed
Blame the process, n o t the people
process (proses) n.
process (proses) n. AA rep
rep eetitiv
titiv ee aa nndd ssyy sste
tem
m aa tic
tic series
series
of s
te
p
s

o
r
a
ctiv
itie
s
where in
p
u
ts
are modified to achieve
of s te p s o r a ctiv itie s where in p u ts are modified to achieve
a value-
a value-aadded o
dded ouutp
tp uutt
What is a Process? Many people do or conduct a process everyday but do you really think of it as a
process? Our definition of a process is a repetitive and systematic series of steps or activities where
inputs are modified to achieve a value-added output.
Usually a successful process needs to be well defined and developed.
24

Examples of Processes
We go thru processes everyday. Below are some examples of processes. Can you think
of other processes within your daily environment?
Injection molding
Recruiting staff
Decanting solutions
Processing invoices
Filling vial/bottles
Conducting research
Crushing ore
Opening accounts
Refining oil
Reconciling accounts
Turning screws
Filling out a timesheet
Building custom homes
Distributing mail
Paving roads
Backing up files
Changing a tire
Issuing purchase orders
Process Maps
Purpose:
Identify the complexity of the process
Communicate the focus of problem solving
Living documents:
They represent what is currently happening, not what you think is
happening.
They should be created by the people who are closest to the process
Remember that a process is a

blending of inputs to produce some
desired output. The intent of each
Start
task, activity and step is to add value,
as perceived by the customer, to the
product or service we are producing.
You cannot discover if this is the case
until you have adequately mapped the process.
Process Map
Step A
Step B
Step C
In
sp
ec
Process Mapping, also called

flowcharting, is a technique to
visualize the tasks, activities and
steps necessary to produce a product
or a service. The preferred method for
describing a process is to identify it
with a generic name, show the
workflow with a Process Map and
describe its purpose with an
operational description.
Step D
Finish
There are many reasons for creating a Process Map:

- It helps all process members understand their part in the process and how their process fits into the
bigger picture.
- It describes how activities are performed and how the work effort flows, it is a visual way of standing
above the process and watching how work is done. In fact, Process Maps can be easily uploaded into
model and simulation software allowing you to simulate the process and visually see how it works.
- It can be used as an aid in training new people.
- It will show you where you can take measurements that will help you to run the process better.
- It will help you understand where problems occur and what some of the causes may be.
- It leverages other analytical tools by providing a source of data and inputs into these tools.
- It identifies many important characteristics you will need as you strive to make improvements.
The individual processes are linked together to see the total effort and flow for meeting business and
customer needs. In order to improve or to correctly manage a process, you must be able to describe it
in a way that can be easily understood. Process Mapping is the most important and powerful tool you
will use to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of a process.
25

Process Map Symbols
Standard symbols for Process Mapping:

(available in Microsoft Office, Visio, iGrafx , SigmaFlow and other products)
A RECTANGLE indicates an
activity. Statements within
the rectangle should begin
with a verb
A PARALLELAGRAM shows
that there are data
A DIAMOND signifies a decision

point. Only two paths emerge
from a decision point: No and Yes
An ELLIPSE shows the start

and end of the process
An ARROW shows the

connection and direction
of flow
A CIRCLE WITH A LETTER OR

NUMBER INSIDE symbolizes
the continuation of a
flowchart to another page
There may be several interpretations of some of the process mapping symbols; however, just
about everyone uses these primary symbols to document processes. As you become more
practiced you will find additional symbols useful, i.e. reports, data storage etc. For now we will
start with just these symbols.
High Level Process Map
At a minimum a high
level Process Map
must include; start
and stop points, all
process steps, all
decision points and
directional flow.
Also be sure to
include Value
Categories such as
Value Added
(Customer Focus) and
Value Enabling
(External Stakeholder
focus).
26

Process Map Example
B
START
LOGON TO PC &
APPLICATIONS
SCHEDULED
PHONE TIME?
WALK-IN
N
CALL
PROVIDE
RESPONSE
PHONE&
NOTE
DATA ENDS
PUT ON HOLD,
REFER TO
REFERENCES
PHONE DATA
CAPTURE BEGINS
ANSWER?
DETERMINE WHO
IS INQUIRING
ANSWER?
OFF HOLD AND

ARRANGE CALL
BACK PHONE DATA
ENDS
ENTER APPROPRIATE
SSAN (#,9s,0s)
CREATE A CASE
INCL CASE TYPE
DATE/TIME, &
NEEDED BY
Y
UPDATE ENTRIES
INCL OPEN DATE/TIME
AUTO
ROUTE
ROUTE
Y
CASE
CLOSED
N
CASE TOOL
RECORD?
ACCESS CASE TOOL
OLD
CASE
DETERMINE NATURE
OF CALL & CONFIRM
UNDERSTANDING
IF EMP DATA NOT

POPULATED, ENTER
QUERY INTERNAL
HRSC SME(S)
ACCESS CASE TOOL
EXAMINE NEXT NOTE

OR RESEARCH ITEM
IMMEDIATE
RESPONSE
AVAILABLE?
Y
CALL or
WALK-IN?
TRANSFER
CALL
N
LOGON
TO PHONE
PHONE
TIME
TRANSFER
APPROPRIATE?
SCHEDULED
PHONE TIME?
LOGOFF PHONE, CHECK

MAIL,E-MAIL,VOICE MAIL
Call Center
Process
Map
REVIEW CASE
TOOL HISTORY &
TAKE NOTES
ADD TO
RESEARCH
LIST
N
TAKE ACTION
or
DO RESEARCH
CLOSE CASE
W/
DATE/TIME
GO TO
F or E
DEPENDING ON
CASE
E
NEXT
Cross Functional Process Map

When multiple departments or functional groups are involved in a complex process it is often useful
to use cross functional Process Maps.
Draw in either vertical or horizontal Swim Lanes and label the functional
groups and draw the Process Map
G eneral
A ccounting
Bank
Financial
A ccounting
Vendor
Department
These are best

S e n d in g Fu n d Tra n s fe r s
used in
transactional
A C H A utomated
A ttach A C H
Request
C lea ring House.
form to
Sta rt
transfer
processes or
Invoice
where the
Fill out A C H
Receive
No
Produce an
process involves
End
enrollment
pa yment
Invoice
form
several
departments.
Match ag ainst
Ma inta in da ta ba se
Vendor
bank batch
to ba la nce A C H
Input info into
Yes
info in
tra nsfers
and daily cash
The lines drawn
web interface
FRS?
batch
horizontally
A ccepts transactions,
across the map
transfer money, and
provide batch total
represent
different
Review and
2 1 .0
3 .0
Process
departments in
Bank
Journey Entry
transfer in
Reconciliation
FRS
the company
and are usually
referred to as Swim Lanes. By mapping in this manner one can see how the various
departments are interdependent in this process.
27

Process Map Exercise
Notes
28

Do you know your Customer?
Knowing your customer is more than just a handshake. It is

necessary to clearly understand their needs. In Six Sigma we call
this understanding the CTQ s or critical to customer
characteristics.
Voice Of the Customer
Critical to Customer
Characteristics
An important element of Six Sigma is understanding your customer. This is called VOC or Voice of
the Customer. By doing this allows you to find all of the necessary information that is relevant
between your product/process and customer, better known as CTQs (Critical to Quality). The
CTQs are the customer requirements for satisfaction with your product or service.
Voice of the Customer
Do you feel confident
that you know what
your customer wants?
There of four steps
that can help you in
understanding your
customer. These
steps focus on the
customers
perspective of
features, your
companys integrity,
delivery mechanisms
and perceived value
versus cost.
Voice of the Customer or VOC seems obvious; after all, we all know
what the customer wants. Or do we??
1. Features
Does the process provide what the customers expect and need?
How do you know?
2. Integrity
Is the relationship with the customer centered on trust?
How do you know?
3. Delivery
Does the process meet the customer s time frame?
How do you know?
4. Expense
Does the customer perceive value for cost?
How do you know?
29

What is a Customer?
Every process has a
deliverable. The
person or entity who
receives this
deliverable is a
customer.
There are two
different types of
customers; External
and Internal. People
generally forget about
the Internal customer
and they are just as
important as the
customers who are
buying your product.
There are different types of customers which dictates how we interact

with them in the process, in order to identify customer and supplier
requirements we must first define who the customers are:
Ex te r n a l
Direct: those who receive the output of your services, they g enerally are
the source of your revenue
Indirect: those who do not receive or pay for the output of your services
but ha ve a vested interest in wha t you do (g overnment ag encies)
In te r n a l
- those within your org aniz ation
who receive the output of your
work
Value Chain
The relationship from one process to the next in an organization creates a
Value Chain of suppliers and receivers of process outputs.

Each process has a contribution and accountability to the next to satisfy the
external customer.
External customers needs and requirements are best met when all process
owners work cooperatively in the Value Chain.
Careful
each move
has many
impacts!!
The disconnect from Design and Production in some organizations is a good example. If
Production is not fed the proper information from Design how can Production properly build a
product?
Every activity (process) must be linked to move from raw materials to a finished product on a store
shelf.
30

What is a CTQ?
Example: Making an
Online Purchase
Reliability Correct
amount of money is
taken from account
Responsiveness
How long to you wait
for product after the
Merchant receives
their money
Security is your
sensitive banking
information stored in
secure place
Developing CTQs
The steps in developing
CTQs are identifying
the customer, capturing
the Voice of the
Customer and finally
validating the CTQs.
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Identify Customers
Listing
Segmentation
Prioritization
Validate CTQ s
Translate VOC to CTQ s
Prioritize the CTQ s
Set Specified Requirements
Confirm CTQ s with customer
Capture VOC
Review existing performance
Determine gaps in what you need to know
Select tools that provide data on gaps
Collect data on the gaps
31

Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ)
Another important tool from
this phase is COPQ, Cost of
Poor Quality. COPQ
represents the financial
opportunity of your teams
improvement efforts. Those
opportunities are tied to
either hard or soft savings.
COPQ, is a symptom
measured in loss of profit
(financial quantification) that
results from errors (defects)
and other inefficiencies in our
processes. This is what we
are seeking to eliminate!
COPQ stands for Cost of Poor Quality

As a Six Sigma Belt, one of your tasks will be to estimate COPQ for
your process
Through your process exploration and project definition work you will
develop a refined estimate of the COPQ in your project
This project COPQ represents the financial opportunity of your
team s improvement effort (VOB)
Calculating COPQ is iterative and will change as you learn more
about the process
No, not that kind

of cop queue!!
You will use the concept of COPQ to quantify the benefits of an improvement effort and also to
determine where you might want to investigate improvement opportunities.
The Essence of COPQ
C O PQ helps us understand the financial impact of problems created

by defects.
C O PQ is a s y m p to m , not a d e fe ct
Projects fix defects with the intent of improving symptoms.
The concepts of traditional Q uality C ost are the foundation for

C O PQ .
Externa l, Interna l, Prevention, A ppra isa l
A sig nificant portion of C O PQ from any defect comes from effects

that are difficult to quantify and must be estimated.
There are four

elements that make up
COPQ; External Costs,
Internal Costs,
Prevention Costs and
Appraisal Costs.
Internal Costs are
opportunities of error
found in a process that
is within your
organization. Whereas,
External Costs are
costs associated to the
finish product
associated with the
internal and external
customer.
Prevention Costs are typically cost associated to product quality, this is viewed as an investment that
companies make to ensure product quality. The final element is Appraisal costs, these are tied to
product inspection and auditing.
This idea was of COPQ was defined by Joseph Juran and is a great point of reference to gain a
further understanding.
Over time and with Six Sigma, COPQ has migrated towards the reduction of waste. Waste is a better
term, because it includes poor quality and all other costs that are not integral to the product or
service your company provides. Waste does not add value in the eyes of customers, employees or
investors.
32

COPQ - Categories
Internal COPQ
Prevention
Quality Control
Department
Inspection
Quarantined Inventory
Etc
Error Proofing Devices

Supplier Certification
Design for Six Sigma
Etc
Detection
External COPQ
Warranty
Customer Complaint Related
Travel
Customer Charge Back Costs
Etc
Supplier Audits
Sorting Incoming Parts
Repaired Material
Etc
COPQ - Iceberg
Generally speaking
COPQ can be
classified as tangible
(easy to see) and
intangible (hard to
see). Visually you
can think of COPQ
as an iceberg. Most
of the iceberg is
below the water
where you cannot
see it.
W a r r a n ty
In s p e ctio n
R e co d e
R e je cts
V is ib le C o s ts
Lo s t s a le s
En g in e e r in g ch a n g e o r d e rs
Tim e v a lu e o f m o n e y
M o r e S e t-u p s
W o r k in g C a p ita l
a llo ca tio n s
Rew o rk
(le s s o b v io u s )
La te d e liv e ry
Ex p e d itin g co s ts
Ex ce s s in v e n to r y
Lo n g cy cle tim e s
Similarly the tangible

Ex ce s s iv e Ma te r ia l
O rd e r s / P la n n in g
quality costs are
H id d e n C o s ts Lo s t C u s to m e r Lo y a lty
costs the
organization is
rather conscious of,
may be measuring already or could easily be measured. The COPQ metric is reported as a percent of
sales revenue. For example tangible costs like inspection, rework, warranty, etc can cost an
organization in the range of 4 percent to 10 percent of every sales dollar it receives. If a company
makes a billion dollars in revenue, this means there are tangible wastes between 40 and 100 million
dollars.
Even worse are the intangible Costs of Poor Quality. These are typically 20 to 35% of sales. If you
average the intangible and tangible costs together, it is not uncommon for a company to be spending
25% of their revenue on COPQ or waste.
33

COPQ and Lean
W a s te d o e s n o t a d d , s u b tr a ct o r o th e r w is e m o d ify th e
th r o u g h p u t in a w a y th a t is p e rce iv e d b y th e cu s to m e r to
a d d v a lu e .
In some cases, waste may be

necessary, but should be
recog niz ed and explored:
Le a n En te rp ris e
S e v e n Ele m e n ts o f W a s te *
Inspection, C orrection, W a iting

in suspense
Decision dia monds, by
definition, a re non-va lue a dded
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
O ften, waste can provide

opportunities for additional defects
to occur.
W e will discuss Lean in more
detail later this week.
C orrection
Processing
C onveya nce
Motion
W a iting
O verproduction
Inventory
Implementing Lean fundamentals can also help identify areas of COPQ. Lean will be discussed later.
COPQ and Lean
While hard savings are always more desirable because

they are easier to quantify, it is also necessary to think
about soft savings.
COPQ Hard Savings
Labor Savings
Cycle Time Improvements
Scrap Reductions
Hidden Factory Costs
Inventory Carrying Cost
COPQ Soft Savings
Gaining Lost Sales

Missed Opportunities
Customer Loyalty
Strategic Savings
Preventing Regulatory Fines
34

COPQ Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : Identify current C O PQ

opportunities in your direct area.
1 . Brainstorm a list of C O PQ opportunities.
2 . C ateg oriz e the top 3 sources of C O PQ for the
four classifications:
Interna l
Externa l
Prevention
Detection
Use Excel file Define Templates.xls, COPQ Brainstorm
Notes
35

The Basic Six Sigma Metrics
The previous slides have been discussing process management and the concepts behind a process
perspective. Now we begin to discuss process improvement and the metrics used.
Some of these metrics are:
DPU: defects per unit produced.
DPMO: defects per million opportunities, assuming there is more than one
opportunity to fail in a given unit of output.
RTY: rolled throughput yield, the probability that any unit will go through a process
defect-free.
Cycle Time Defined
Th in k o f C y cle Tim e in te rm s o f y o u r p ro d u ct o r tra n s a ctio n

in th e e y e s o f th e cu s to m e r o f th e p ro ce s s :
It is the time required for the product or transaction to g o throug h the
entire process, from beg inning to end
It is not simply the touch time of the value-a dded portion of the process
W h a t is th e cy cle tim e o f th e p ro ce s s y o u m a p p e d ?
Is th e re a n y v a ria tio n in th e cy cle tim e ? W h y ?
Cycle time includes any wait or queue time for either people or products.
36

Defects Per Unit (DPU)
DPU or Defects per Unit
quantifies individual defects
on a unit and not just
defective units. A returned
unit or transaction can be
defective and have more
than one defect.
Defect: A physical count of
all errors on a unit,
regardless of the disposition
of the unit.
EXAMPLES: An error in a
Online transaction has
(typed wrong card number,
internet failed). In this case
one online transaction had 2
defects (DPU=2).
Six Sig ma methods quantify individual defects and not just defectives
Defects account for all errors on a unit
A unit may have multiple defects
A n incorrect invoice may have the wrong amount due and the wrong
due date
Defectives simply classifies the unit bad
Doesnt matter how many defects there are
The invoice is wrong , ca uses are unknown
A unit:
Is the measure of volume of output from your area.
Is observable and countable. It has a discrete start and stop p oint.
It is an individua l measurement and not an averag e of
measurements.
Tw o D e fects
O n e D e fectiv e
A Mobile Computer that has 1 broken video screen, 2 broken keyboard keys and 1 dead battery,
has a total of 4 defects. (DPU=4)
Is a process that produces 1 DPU better or worse than a process that generates 4 DPU? If you
assume equal weight on the defects, obviously a process that generates 1 DPU is better; however,
cost and severity should be considered. However, the only way you can model or predict a process
is to count all the defects.
First Time Yield
Traditional metrics
when chosen
poorly can lead the
team in a direction
that is not
consistent with the
focus of the
business. Some
of the metrics we
must be
concerned about
would be FTY FIRST TIME
YIELD. It is very
possible to have
100% FTY and
spend tremendous
amounts in excess
repairs and
rework.
37

Rolled Throughput Yield
Instead of relying on FTY - First Time Yield, a more efficient metric to use is RTY-Rolled Throughput
Yield. RTY has a direct correlation (relationship) to Cost of Poor Quality.
In the few organizations where data is readily available, the RTY can be calculated using actual defect
data. The data provided by this calculation would be a binomial distribution since the lowest yield
possible would be zero.
As depicted here, RTY is the multiplied yield of each subsequent operation throughout a process (X1 *
X2 * X3)
RTY Estimate
Sadly, in most companies there is
not enough data to calculate RTY
in the long term. Installing data
collection practices required to
provide such data would not be
cost effective. In those instances,
it is necessary to utilize a
prediction of RTY in the form of edpu (e to the negative dpu).
In many org aniz ations the long term data required to

calculate RTY is not availa ble, we can however estimate
RTY using a known DPU as long as certain conditions are
met.
The Poisson distribution g enerally holds true for the
random distribution of defects in a unit of product and is
the basis for the estimation.
The best estimate of the proportion of units containing
no defects, or RTY is:
When using the e-dpu equation to

pu
RTY = e--ddpu
calculate the probability of a
The mathematical constant e is the base of the natural logarithm.
product or service moving through
e 2.71828 18284 59045 23536 02874 7135
the entire process without
a defect, there are several things that must be held for consideration. While this would seem to be a
constraint, it is appropriate to note that if a process has in excess of 10% defects, there is little need to
concern yourself with the RTY.
In such extreme cases, it would be much more prudent to correct the problem at hand before worrying
about how to calculate yield.
38

Deriving RTY from DPU
The Binomial distribution is the true model for defect data, but the Poisson is the
convenient model for defect data. The Poisson does a g ood job of predicting
when the defect rates are low.
Poisson
Poisson VS
VS Binomial
Binomial (r=0,n=1)
(r=0,n=1)
120%
120%
100%
100%
Yield(RTY)
(RTY)
Yield
Yield
Yield (Binomial)
(Binomial)
Yield
Yield (Poisson)
(Poisson)
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
Probability
Probabilityof
ofaadefect
defect
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
Probability
Yield
Probability
Yield
of
ofaadefect
defect (Binomial)
(Binomial)
0.0
100%
0.0
100%
0.1
90%
0.1
90%
0.2
80%
0.2
80%
0.3
70%
0.3
70%
0.4
60%
0.4
60%
0.5
50%
0.5
50%
0.6
40%
0.6
40%
0.7
30%
0.7
30%
0.8
20%
0.8
20%
0.9
10%
0.9
10%
1.0
0%
1.0
0%
Yield
Yield
(Poisson)
(Poisson)
100%
100%
90%
90%
82%
82%
74%
74%
67%
67%
61%
61%
55%
55%
50%
50%
45%
45%
41%
41%
37%
37%
%
%Over
Over
Estimated
Estimated
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
2%
4%
4%
7%
7%
11%
11%
15%
15%
20%
20%
25%
25%
31%
31%
37%
37%
B in o m ia l
n = number of units
r = number of predicted defects
p = probability of a defect occurrence
q = 1 - p
P o is s o n
For low defect rates (p < 0.1 ), the Poisson approximates the Binomial fairly well.
Our goal is to predict yield. For process improvement, the yield of interest is the ability of a
process to produce zero defects (r=0). Question: What happens to the Poisson equation when r=0?
Deriving RTY from DPU - Modeling
To what value is
the P(0)
converging?
Note: Ultimately,
this means that
you need the
ability to track all
the individual
defects which
occur per unit via
your data
collection system.
U n it
O p p o rtu n ity
B a s ic Q u e s tio n : W hat is the likelihood of

producing a unit with z ero defects?
For the unit shown a bove the following

da ta wa s g a thered:
6 0 defects observed
6 0 units processed
W ha t is the DPU?
W ha t is probability tha t any g iven

opportunity will be a defect?
W ha t is the proba bility tha t any g iven

opportunity will N O T be a defect is:
The proba bility tha t a ll 1 0 opportunities

on sing le unit will be defect-free is:
RTY
RTY for
for DPU
DPU =
= 11
0.368
0.368
0.364
0.364
Yield
Yield
Given a
probability that
any opportunity is
a defect = #
defects / (# units
x # opps per unit):
0.36
0.36
0.356
0.356
0.352
0.352
0.348
0.348
10
10
Opportunities
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
100
100
P(defect)
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
1000
1000
10000
10000
Chances
Chances Per
Per Unit
Unit
P(no defect)
0.9
0.99
0.999
0.9999
0.99999
0.999999
100000
100000
1000000
1000000
RTY (Prob defect free unit)

0.34867844
0.366032341
0.367695425
0.367861046
0.367877602
0.367879257
If we extend the concept to an infinite number

of opportunities, all at a DPU of 1 .0 , we will
approach the value of 0 .3 6 8 .
Probability that an opportunity is a defect = 0.1

Probability that an opportunity is not a defect = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
Probability that all 10 opportunities are defect-free = 0.910 = 0.34867844
39

RTY Prediction Poisson Model
When r = 1,
this
equation
simplifies
to:
(dpu)*edpu
Use the binomial to estimate the probability of a discrete event

(g ood/ bad) when sampling from a relatively larg e population,
n > 1 6 , & p < 0 .1 .
W hen r= 0 , we compute the probability of finding z ero defects per

unit (called rolled throug hput yield).
The table to the rig ht shows the proportion of product which will
have
Y=
0 defects (r= 0 )
1 defect (r= 1 ) W h e n D P U = 1
2 defects (r= 2 ), etc
W hen, on averag e, we have a process, with 1 defect per unit,

then we say there is a 3 6 .7 9 % cha nce of finding a unit with z ero
defects. There is only a 1 .5 3 % chance of finding a unit with 4
defects.
W hen r= 1 , this equation simplifies to:
To predict the % of units with z ero defect (i.e., RTY ):
count the number of defects found
count the number of units produced
compute the dpu and enter it in the dpu equa tion:
(d p u ) r e d p u
r r! p [r]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 .3 6 7 9
0 .3 6 7 9
0 .1 8 3 9
0 .0 6 1 3
0 .0 1 5 3
0 .0 0 3 1
0 .0 0 0 5
0 .0 0 0 1
0 .0 0 0 0
The point of this slide is to demonstrate the mathematical model used to predict the probability of an
outcome of interest. It has little practical purpose other than to acquaint the Six Sigma Belt with the math
behind the tool they are learning and let them understand that there is a logical basis for the equation.
Six Sigma Metrics Calculating DPU
The DPU for a g iven operation can be calculated by dividing the number of
defects found in the operation by the number of units entering the operational
step.
1 0 0 p a rts b u ilt
2 d e fe cts id e n tifie d a n d co r re cte d
d p u = 0 .0 2
S o R TY fo r th is s te p w o u ld b e e -.0 2 (.9 8 0 1 9 9 ) o r 9 8 .0 2 % .
R TY 1 = 0 .9 8
d p u = .0 2
R TY 2 = 0 .9 8
d p u = .0 2
R TY 3 = 0 .9 8
d p u = .0 2
R TY 4 = 0 .9 8
d p u = .0 2
R TY 5 = 0 .9 8
d p u = .0 2
RRTY
= 0 .9 0
TY TO
TO TT = 0 .9 0
44
ddppuuTO
= .1
TO TT = .1
If the process had only 5 process steps with the same yield the process
RTY would be: 0 .9 8 * 0 .9 8 * 0 .9 8 * 0 .9 8 * 0 .9 8 = 0 .9 0 3 9 2 1 or 9 0 .3 9 %. Since our
metric of primary concern is the C O PQ of this process, we can sa y that in less tha n 9 % of
the time we will be spending dollars in excess of the pre-d etermined standard or value
added amount to which this process is entitled.
N o te : R TY s m u s t b e m u ltip lie d a cro s s a p ro ce s s ,

D P U s a re a d d e d a cro s s a p ro ce s s .
When the number of steps in a process continually increase, we then continue to multiply the yield
from each step to find the overall process yield. For the sake of simplicity lets say we are calculating
the RTY for a process with 8 steps. Each step in our process has a yield of .98. Again, there will be a
direct correlation between the RTY and the dollars spent to correct errors in our process.
40

Focusing our Effort FTY vs. RTY
Assume we are creating two products in our

organization that use similar processes.
Product B
FTY = 80%
Product A
FTY = 80%
How do you know what to work on?

*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
If we chose only to examine the FTY in our decision making process, it would be difficult to determine
the process and product on which our resources should be focused.
As you have seen, there are many factors behind the final number for FTY. Thats where we need to
look for process improvements.
Focusing our Effort FTY vs. RTY
Answer Slide
questions.
Now we have a better
idea of:
What does a defect
cost?
What product should
get the focus?
Let s look at the DPU of each product assuming equal

opportunities and margin
Product B
Product A
dpu 100 / 100 = 1 dpu
dpu 200 / 100 = 2 dpu
Now, can you tell which to work on?

The product with the highest DPU? think again!
More questions to answer How much more time and/or raw material are required?
How much extra floor space do we need?
How much extra staff or hours are required to perform the rework?
How many extra shipments are we paying for from our suppliers?
How much testing have we built in to capture our defects?
*None of the data used herein is associated with the products shown herein. Pictures are no more than illustration to make a point to teach the concept.
41

Describe what is meant by Process Focus
Generate a Process Map
Describe the importance of VOC, VOB and VOE, and CTQs
Explain COPQ
Describe the Basic Six Sigma metrics
Explain the difference between FTY and RTY
Explain how to calculate Defects per Unit (DPU)
You have now completed Define Phase Six Sigma Fundamentals.

Notes
42
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Define Phase
Selecting Projects
Now we will continue in the Define Phase with the Selecting Projects.
43
Selecting Projects
Overview
The core fundamentals of this
phase are Selecting Projects,
Refining and Defining and
Financial Evaluation.
The output of the Define Phase
is a well developed and
articulated project. It has been
correctly stated that 50% of the
success of a project is
dependent on how well the
effort has been defined.
Selecting
Selecting Projects
Projects
Refining
Refining & Defining
& Defining
Fina
Financial Evaluation
ncial Evaluation
Approaches to Project Selection

Here are three approaches
for identifying projects. Do
you know what the best
approach is?
The most popular process
for generating and selecting
projects is by holding
brainstorming sessions. In
brainstorming sessions a
group of people get together,
sometimes after polling
process owners for what
blatantly obvious problems
are occurring, and as a team
try to identify and refine a list
of problems that MAY be
causing issues in the
organization. Furthermore in an organization that does not have an intelligent problem-solving
methodology in-place, such as Six Sigma, Lean or even TQM, what follows the project selection process
brainstorm is ANOTHER brainstorming session focused on coming up with ideas on how to SOLVE these
problems.
Although brainstorming itself can be very structured it falls far short of being a systematic means of
identifying projects that will reduce cost of poor quality throughout the organization. Whyfor several
reasons. One, it does not ensure that we are dealing with the most important high-impact problems, but
rather what happens to be the recent fire fight initiatives. Two, usually brainstorming does not utilize a
data based approach, it relies on tribal knowledge, experience and what people THINK is happening. As
we know what people THINK is happening and what is ACTUALLY happening can be two very different
things.
In this module we are going to learn about establishing a structured approach for Project Selection.
44
Selecting Projects
Project Selection Core Components
With every project there must be a minimum of 3 deliverables:

Business Case
Project Charter
Benefits Analysis
Project Selection - Governance
R e s p o n s ib le
P a rty
R e s o u r ce s
B u s in e s s
Ca se
C hampion
(Process O wner)
Business Unit
Members
N/A
P ro je ct
C h a rte r
Six Sig ma Belt
C hampion (Process
O wner) &
Master Black Belt
O ng oing
B e n e fits
A n a ly s is
Benefits C apture
Ma nag er or
Unit Fina ncial Rep
C hampion (Process
O wner) &
Six Sig ma Belt
O ng oing /
D,M,A ,I,C
Fre q u e n cy
o f U p d a te
45
Selecting Projects
A Structured Approach A Starting Point
These are some
examples of
Business Metrics or
Key Performance
Indicators.
What metric should
you focus onit
depends? What is
the project focus?
What are your
organizations
strategic goals?
The Starting Point is defined by the Champion or Process Owner with the
Business Case is the output.
The tree diagram is used to facilitate the process of breaking down the
metric of interest.
! EBIT
! Cycle time
Level 2
! Defects
! Cost
Level 2
Level 1
! Revenue
Level 2
Are Cost of Sales

! Complaints
preventing growth?
Level 2
Are customer
! Compliance
complaints
resulting in lost
! Safety
earnings? Are
excess cycle times
and yield issues eroding market share? Is the fastest growing division of the business the
refurbishing department?
It depends because the motivation for organizations vary so much and all projects should be directly
aligned with the organizations objectives. Answer the question: What metrics are my department not
meeting? What is causing us pain?
A Structured Approach - Snapshot
Once a metric point
has been determined
another important
question needs to be
asked - What is my
metric a function of?
In other words what
are all of the things
that affect this metric?
Th e K P I s n e e d to b ro k e n d o w n in to a ctio n a b le le v e ls .
B u s in e s s M e a s u re s
K e y P e rfo rm a n ce In d ica to rs (K P Is )
A ctio n a b le Le v e l
Le v e l 2
Le v e l 3
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
We utilize the Tree
Diagram to facilitate
Le v e l 1
the process of
Le v e l 4
Le v e l 2
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
breaking down the
metric of interest.
When creating the tree diagram you will eventually run into activities which are made up of
processes. This is where projects will be focused because this is where defects, errors and
waste occur.
46
Selecting Projects
Business Case Components Level 1
P rim a ry B u s in e s s M e a s u re o r K e y P e rfo rm a n ce
In d ica to r (K P I)
Le v e l 2
Le v e l 3
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
Le v e l 2
Le v e l 4
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
Le v e l 1
Focus on one prima ry business mea sure or KPI.

Prima ry business mea sure should bea r a direct line of site with the
org a niz a tions stra teg ic objective.
A s the C ha mpion na rrows in on the g rea test opportunity for
improvement, this provides a clea r focus for how the success will be
mea sured.
Be sure to start with higher level metrics, whether they are measured at the Corporate Level,
Division Level or Department Level, projects should track to the Metrics of interest within a given
area. Primary Business Measures or Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) serve as indicators of the
success of a critical objective.
Business Case Components Business Measures
Primary Business
Measure
Business
Measure
Business
Measure
Activities
Processes
Business
Measure
Business
Measure
Activities
Processes
Unless you can measure it.

You can t do much about it!!
Post business measures (product/service) of the primary business measure are lower level
metrics and must focus on the end product to avoid internal optimization at expense of total
optimization.
47
Selecting Projects
Business Case Components - Activities
P rim a ry B u s in es s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
Y = f (x 1 , x 2 , x 3 x n )
1 st C all Resolution = f (C alls, O perators, Resolutions x n )
Black Box Testing = f (Specifications, Simulation, Eng ineering x n )
Business measures are a function of activities. These activities are usually created or enforced by
direct supervision of functional managers. Activities are usually made up of a series of processes or
specific processes.
Business Case Components - Processes
P rim a ry B u s in es s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
B u s in e s s
M e a s u re
A ctiv itie s
P ro ce s s es
Y = f (x 1 , x 2 , x 3 x n )
Resolutions = f (N ew C ustomers, Existing C ustomers, Defective Products x n )
S imula tion = f (Desig n, Da ta , modeling x n )
The processes represent the final stage of the matrix where multiple steps result in the delivery
of some output for the customer. These deliverables are set by the business and customer and
are captured within the Voice of the Customer, Voice of the Business or Voice of the Employee.
What makes up these process are the Xs that determine the performance of the Y which is
where the actual breakthrough projects should be focused.
48
Selecting Projects
What is a Business Case?
The Business Case
is created to ensure
the strategic need
for your project. It
is the first step in
project description
development.
The Business Case communicates the need for the project in

terms of meeting business objectives.
The components are:
Output unit (product/service) for external customer
Primary business measure of output unit for project
Baseline performance of primary business measure
Gap in baseline performance of primary business measure from
business objective
Let s get down to

business!!
Business Case Example
During FY 2005, the 1st Time Call Resolution

Efficiency for New Customer Hardware Setup
was 89% .
This represents a gap of 8% from the industry
standard of 93% that amounts to US
$2,000,000 of annualized cost impact.
Here is an example of an
Business Case. This defines
the problem and provides
evidence of the problem.
As you review this statement remember the following format of what needs to be in a Business Case:
WHAT is wrong, WHERE and WHEN is it occurring, what is the BASELINE magnitude at which it is
occurring and what is it COSTING me?
You must take caution to avoid under-writing a Business Case. Your natural tendency is to write too
simplistically because you are already familiar with the problem. You must remember that if you are to
enlist support and resources to solve your problem, others will have to understand the context and the
significance in order to support you.
The Business Case cannot include any speculation about the cause of the problem or what actions
will be taken to solve the problem. Its important that you dont attempt to solve the problem or bias
the solution at this stage. The data and the Six Sigma methodology will find the true causes and
solutions to the problem.
The next step is getting project approval.
49
Selecting Projects
The Business Case Template
Fill in th e B la n k s fo r Y o u r P r o je ct:
During ___________________________________ , the ____________________ for
(P e r io d o f tim e fo r b a s e lin e p e rfo r m a n ce ) (P rim a ry b u s in e s s m e a s u re )
________________________ was _________________ .

(A k e y b u s in e s s p r o ce s s ) (B a s e lin e p e rfo r m a n ce )
This g ap of ____________________________
(B u s in e s s o b je ctiv e ta rg e t v s . b a s e lin e )
from ___________________ represents ____________________ of cost impact.

(B u s in e s s o b je ctiv e )
(C o s t im p a ct o f g a p )
You need to make sure that your own Business Case captures the units of pain, the business measures,
the performance and the gaps. If this template does not seem to be clicking use your own or just free
form your Business Case ensuring that its well articulated and quantified.
Business Case Exercise
Using the Excel file Define Templates.xls, Business Case, perform this exercise.
50
Selecting Projects
What is a Project Charter?
The Charter expands on the Business Case, it clarifies the projects focus and measures of
project performance and is completed by the Six Sigma Belt.
Components:
The Problem
Project Scope
Project Metrics
Prima ry & Secondary
G ra phical Displa y of Project Metrics
Prima ry & Secondary
Sta nda rd project informa tion
Project, Belt & Process O wner
na mes
Sta rt da te & desired End da te
Division or Business Unit
Supporting Ma ster Bla ck Belt
(Mentor)
Team Members
The Project Charter is an important document it is the initial communication of the project. The first
phases of the Six Sigma methodology are Define and Measure. These are known as
Characterization phases that focus primarily on understanding and measuring the problem at hand.
Therefore some of the information in the Project Charter, such as primary and secondary metrics, can
change several times. By the time the Measure Phase is wrapping up the Project Charter should be
in its final form meaning defects and the metrics for measuring them are clear and agreed upon.
As you can see some of the information in the Project Charter is self explanatory, especially the first
section. We are going to focus on establishing the Problem Statement and determining Objective
Statement, scope and the primary and secondary metrics.
Project Charter - Definitions
P ro b le m S ta te m e n t - A rticula tes the pa in of the defect or error in the

process.
O b je ctiv e S ta te m e n t S ta tes how much of a n improvement is desired

from the project.
S co p e A rticula tes the bounda ries of the project.
P rim a ry M e tric The a ctua l mea sure of the defect or error in the process.
S e co n d a ry M e tric(s ) Mea sures of potentia l consequences (+ / -) a s a

result of cha ng es in the process.
C h a rts G raphica l displa ys of the Prima ry a nd S econda ry Metrics over a

period of time.
51
Selecting Projects
Project Charter - Problem Statement
Migrate the Business Case into a Problem Statement
First the Business

Case will serve as the
Problem Statement, as
the Belt learns more
about the process and
the defects that are
occurring.
Project Charter Objective & Scope

Consider the following for
constructing your Objective &
Scope:
What represents a significant
improvement?
X amount of an increase in
yield
X amount of defect reduction
Use Framing Tools to establish
the initial scope
A projects main objective is to solve a
problem! The area highlighted is for
articulating how much of a reduction or
improvement will yield a significant
impact to the process and business.
This is the starting point creating your
projects Objective Statement.
52
Selecting Projects
Pareto Analysis
Assisting you in determining what inputs are having the greatest impact on your process is the
Pareto Analysis approach.
The 80:20 Rule Examples
2 0 % of the time expended produced 8 0 % of the results
8 0 % of your phone calls g o to 2 0 % of the na mes on your list
2 0 % of the streets ha ndle 8 0 % of the traffic
8 0 % of the meals in a restaurant come from 2 0 % of the menu
2 0 % of the paper ha s 8 0 % of the news
8 0 % of the news is in the first 2 0 % of the article
2 0 % of the people cause 8 0 % of the problems
2 0 % of the features of an application are used 8 0 % of the time
Here are some

examples of the 80:20
Rule. Can you think of
any other examples?
53
Selecting Projects
Pareto Chart - Tool
Multi level Pareto Charts are used in a drill down fashion to get to Root Cause of the tallest bar.
The Pareto Charts are often referred to as levels. For instance the first graph is called the first level,
the next the second level and so on. Start high and drill down. Lets look at how we interpret this and
what it means.
Lets look at the following example.

By drilling down from the first level we
see that Department J makes up
approximately 60% of the scrap and part
Z101 makes up 80% of Dept Js scrap.
See how we are creating focus and
establishing a line of sight?
You many be eager to jump into trying to
fix the problem once you have identified
it, BE CAREFUL. This is what causes
rework and defects in the first place.
Follow the methodology, be patient and
you will eventually be led to a solution.
54
Selecting Projects
Pareto Chart - Example
Open the Define Data Sets.xls file and go to the Call Center sheet.
Select Graphic Tools>Basic Pareto Chart. Select Failure Mode for Pareto Category (X) and
Count for the Optional Numeric Count (Y). You may also choose to add a title to your chart.
When you hit Next you are brought to the Basic Pareto options. Take this time now to select
the defaults you will be using. Cum Sum Line should be set to On Top of First Bar. Under the
Chart Options tab select only Data Table for Data Labels. Finally select Percent for
Secondary Y Axis. If you wish you may modify the Gap Width between the bars. Ensure
Save Defaults is checked and click Finish.
When your Pareto shows up like
this your focus is probably too
broad.
A good indication of having too
broad of a focus is when your
Pareto looks flat. Its telling you
that there is no one or two inputs
that are impacting your process.
Multiple inputs are having similar
effects.
You need to reduce the scope of
the project to get to a more
granular level.
55
Selecting Projects
Pareto Chart Example (Cont.)
Lets look at the problem a little differently
- Using a higher level scope for the first Pareto may help in providing focus.
- Create another Pareto as shown below.
This gives a better picture of which product category produces the highest defect count.
Now weve got something to work with. Notice the 80% area. draw a line from the 80%
mark across to the cumulative percent line (Red Line) in the graph as shown here.
Which cards create the highest Defect Rates?
Now you are beginning to see what needs work to improve the performance of your project.
56
Selecting Projects
Pareto Chart Example (cont.)
Remember to keep focused on finding the biggest bang for the buck.
This does not mean there is NO opportunity for improvements to be had; it simply means nothing
obvious is sticking out at this level.
So lets keep looking.
57
Selecting Projects
Project Charter Primary Metric
Moving on to the next
element of the Project
Charter, Using the
Excel file Define
Templates.xls,
Project Charter,
perform the following
exercise:
Since we will be
narrowing in on the
defect thru the
Measure Phase it is
common for the
Primary Metric to
change several times
while we struggle to
understand what is
happening in our
process of interest.
The Primary Metric also serves as the gauge for when we can claim victory with the project.
SigmaXL also has a Project Charter template. You can access it through, SigmaXL>Templates
and Calculators>DMAIC and DFSS Templates>Team/Project Charter.
Project Charter Secondary Metrics
Consider a project
focused on improving
duration of call times
(cycle time) in a call
center. If we realize a
reduction in call time
you would want to
know if anything else
was effected.
Think about itdid
overtime increase /
reduce, did labor
increase / reduce, what
happened to customer
satisfaction ratings?
These are all things
that should be
measured in order to
accurately capture the
true effect of the
improvement.
58
Selecting Projects
Project Charter Metric Charts
The Project Charter
template includes the
graphing capabilities
shown here. It is OK
to not use this
template but in any
case ensure you are
regularly measuring
the critical metrics.
Project Charter Exercise

Using the Excel
file Define
Templates.xls,
Project Charter,
perform this
exercise.
59
Selecting Projects
What is the Financial Evaluation?
The Financial Evaluation establishes the value of the project.

The components are:
Impact
Sustainable
One-off
Allocations
Cost Codes / Accounting System
Forecast
Cash flow
Realization schedule
OK, let s add it up!!

Standard financial principles should be followed at the beginning and end of the project to provide a
true measure of the improvements effect on the organization.
A financial representative of the firm should establish guidelines on how savings will be calculated
throughout the Six Sigma deployment.
Benefits Capture - Calculation Template
W h a tev er y o u r o rg a n iz a tio n s p ro to co l m a y b e th es e a s p e cts

s h o u ld b e a cco u n ted fo r w ith in a n y im p ro v em en t p ro ject.
I
M
P
A
C
T
C
O
S
T
C
O
D
E
S
Sustainable Impact
Reduced
Costs
F
O
R
E
C
A
S
T
There are two types of

Impact, O ne O ff &
Sustainable
One-Off Impact
Increased
Revenue
Costs
Realization Schedule
(Cash Flow)
Implementation
Capital
C ost C odes allocate the

impact to the
appropriate area in the
Books
Forecasts allow for
proper manag ement of
projects and resources
By Period
(i.e. Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4)
60
Selecting Projects
Benefits Capture - Basic Guidelines
When calculating project benefits you should follow these steps.
Benefits Capture - Categorization

Here is an example of how to categorize your projects impact.
A
Projects directly impact the Income Statement or Cash Flow
Statement.
B
Projects impact the Balance Sheet (working capital).
C Projects avoid expense or investment due to known or expected

events in the future (cost avoidance).
D Projects are risk management, insurance, Safety, Health,
Environment and Community related projects which prevent or
reduce severity of unpredictable events.
You don t want to take this one home!!
61
Selecting Projects
Benefits Calculation Involvement & Responsibility
P ro je ct S e le ctio n
D -M -A -I-C
Im p le m e n ta tio n
6 M o n th A u d it
Fina ncial
Representative
Fina ncial
Representative
Fina ncial
Representative
Fina ncial
Representative
C ha mpion
&
Process O wner
Black Belt
C ha mpion
&
Process O wner
Process O wner
It is highly recommended that you follow the involvement governance shown here.
Benefits Capture - Summary
Performance tracking for Six Sigma Projects should use the

same discipline that would be used for tracking any other
high-profile projects.
The A-B-C-D categories can be used to illustrate the impact of
your project or a portfolio of projects.
Establish The Governess Grid for Responsibility &
Involvement.
It s a wrap!!
Just some recommendations to consider when running your projects or program.
62
Selecting Projects
Benefits Calculation Template
The Benefits Calculation Template facilitates and aligns with the aspects discussed for Project
Accounting.
The Excel file Define Templates.xls, BENEFITS CALCULATION TEMPLATE.
63
Selecting Projects
Understand the various approaches to project selection
Articulate the benefits of a Structured Approach
Refine and Define the business problem into a Project
Charter to display critical aspects of an improvement
project
Make initial financial impact estimate
You have now completed Define Phase Selecting Projects.
Notes
64
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Define Phase
Elements of Waste
Now we will continue in the Define Phase with Elements of Waste.
65
Elements of Waste
Overview
of this phase are the 7
components of waste
and 5S.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
77 CCoom
m ppoonneennts
ts oof f W
W aa sste
te
55 SS
Definition of Lean
Lean Enterprise is based on the premise that anywhere

work is being done, waste is being generated.
The Lean Enterprise seeks to organiz e its processes to the
optimum level, through the continual focus on the
identification and elimination of waste.
-- B a rb a ra W h e a t
66
Elements of Waste
Lean History
1885
Craft Production
1913
Mass Production
- Machine then harden

- Fit on assembly
- Customization
- Highly skilled workforce
- Low production rates
- High Cost
- Part inter-changeability
- Moving production line
- Production engineering
- "Workers don't like to
think"
- Unskilled labor
- High production rates
- Low cost
- Persistent quality
problems
- Inflexible models
1955 - 1990
Toyota Production
System
- Worker as problem
solver
- Worker as process
owner enabled by:
-- Training
-- Upstream quality
-- Minimal inventory
-- Just-in-time
- Eliminate waste
- Responsive to change
- Low cost
- Improving productivity
- High quality product
1993 Lean Enterprise

- "Lean" applied to all
functions in enterprise
value stream
- Optimization of value
delivered to all
stakeholders and
enterprises in value chain
- Low cost
- Improving productivity
- High quality product
- Greater value for
stakeholders
Lean Manufacturing has been going on for a very long time, however the phrase is credited to
James Womac in 1990. A small list of accomplishments are noted in the slide above primarily
focused on higher volume manufacturing.
Lean Six Sigma
The essence of Lean is to
concentrate effort on removing
waste while improving process
flow to achieve speed and agility
at lower cost. The focus of Lean
is to increase the percentage of
value-added work performed by
a company. Lean recognizes
that most businesses spend a
relatively small portion of their
energies on the true delivery of
value to a customer. While all
companies are busy, it is
estimated for some companies
that as little as 10% of their
time is spent on value-added work, meaning as much as 90% of time is allocated to non value-added
activities, or waste.
Forms of waste include: Wasted capital (inventory), wasted material (scrap), wasted time (cycle time),
wasted human effort (inefficiency, rework) and wasted energy (energy inefficiency). Lean is a
prescriptive methodology for relatively fast improvements across a variety of processes, from
administrative to manufacturing applications. Lean enables your company to identify waste where it
exists. It also provides the tools to make improvements on the spot.
67
Elements of Waste
Lean Six Sigma (cont.)
Lean focuses on what calls the Value Stream, the sequence of activities and work required to
produce a product or to provide a service. It is similar to a Linear Process Flow Map, but it
contains its own unique symbols and data. The Lean method is based on understanding how the
Value Stream is organized, how work is performed, which work is value added vs. non-value
added and what happens to products and services and information as they flow through the Value
Stream. Lean identifies and eliminates the barriers to efficient flow through simple, effective tools.
Lean removes many forms of waste so that Six Sigma can focus on eliminating variability.
Variation leads to defects, which is a major source of waste. Six Sigma is a method to make
processes more capable through the reduction of variation. Thus the symbiotic relationship
between the two methodologies.
Project Requirements for Lean
Perhaps one of the most criminal employee performance issues in

today s organizations is generated not by a desire to cheat ones
employer but rather by a lack of regard to waste.
In every work environment there are multiple opportunities for
reducing the non-value added activities that have (over time)
become an ingrained part of the standard operating procedure.
These non-value added activities have become so ingrained in our
process that they are no longer recognized for what they are,
WASTE.
waste (v.) Anything other than the minimum amount of time,
material, people, space, energy, etc needed to add value to the
product or service you are providing.
The Japanese word for waste is muda.
Get that stuff

outta here!!
Employees at some level have been de-sensitized to waste: Thats what weve always done.
Lean brings these opportunities for savings back into focus with specific approaches to finding
and eliminating waste.
68
Elements of Waste
Seven Components of Waste
Muda is classified into seven components:
Overproduction
Correction (defects)
Inventory
Motion
Overprocessing
Conveyance
Waiting
Sometimes additional forms of muda are added:

Under use of talent
Lack of safety
Being Lean means eliminating waste.

Overproduction
Overproduction is producing more than the next step needs or more
than the customer buys.
It may be the worst form of waste because it contributes to all

the others.
Examples are:
Preparing extra reports
Reports not acted upon or
even read
Multiple copies in data storage
Over-ordering materials
Duplication of effort/reports
Waste of Overproduction relates to the excessive
accumulation of work-in-process (WIP) or finished
goods inventory.
Producing more parts than necessary to satisfy the customers quantity demand thus leading to
idle capital invested in inventory.
Producing parts at a rate faster than required such that a work-in-process queue is created
again, idle capital.
69
Elements of Waste
Correction
Correction of defects are as obvious as it sounds.
Examples are:
Incorrect data entry
Paying the wrong vendor
Misspelled words in
communications
Making bad product
Eliminate erors!!!
Materials or labor discarded

during production
Waste of Correction includes the waste of handling and

fixing mistakes. This is common in both manufacturing
and transactional settings.
Correcting or repairing a defect in materials or parts adds unnecessary costs because of

additional equipment and labor expenses. An example is the labor cost of scheduling
employees to work overtime to rework defects.
Inventory
Inventory is the liability of materials that are bought, invested in and
not immediately sold or used.
Examples are:
Transactions not processed
Bigger in box than out
box
Over-ordering materials
consumed in-house
Over-ordering raw materials
just in case
Waste of Inventory is identical to overproduction except that
it refers to the waste of acquiring raw material before the
exact moment that it is needed.
Inventory is a drain on an organizations overhead. The greater the inventory, the higher the
overhead costs become. If quality issues arise and inventory is not minimized, defective material
is hidden in finished goods.
To remain flexible to customer requirements and to control product variation, we must minimize
inventory. Excess inventory masks unacceptable change-over times, excessive downtime,
operator inefficiency and a lack of organizational sense of urgency to produce product.
70
Elements of Waste
Motion
Motion is the unnecessary movement of people and equipment.
This includes looking for things like documents or parts as well as

movement that is straining.
Examples are:
Extra steps
Extra data entry
Having to look
for something
Waste of Motion examines how people

move to ensure that value is added.
Any movement of people or machinery that does not contribute added value to the product, i.e.
programming delay times and excessive walking distance between operations.
Overprocessing
Overprocessing is tasks, activities and materials that dont add value.
Can be caused by poor product or tool design as well as from not

understanding what the customer wants.
Examples are:
Sign-offs
Reports that contain more
information than the
customer wants or needs
Waste of Over-processing relates to

over-processing anything that may not
be adding value in the eyes of the
customer.
Communications, reports,
emails, contracts, etc that
contain more than the
necessary points (briefer is
better)
Voice mails that are too long
Processing work that has no connection to advancing the line or improving the quality of the
product. Examples include typing memos that could be had written or painting components or
fixtures internal to the equipment.
71
Elements of Waste
Conveyance
Conveyance is the unnecessary movement of material and Goods.
Steps in a process should be located close to each other so

movement is minimized.
Examples are:
Extra steps in the
process
Distance traveled
Moving paper from
place to place
Waste of Conveyance is the movement of material.
Conveyance is incidental, required action that does not directly contribute value to the product.
Perhaps it must be moved however, the time and expense incurred does not produce product or
service characteristics that customers see.
Its vital to avoid conveyance unless it is supplying items when and where they are needed (i.e.
just-in-time delivery).
Waiting
Waiting is nonproductive time due to lack of material, people, or
equipment.
Can be due to slow or broken machines, material not arriving on time,

etc.
Examples are:
Processing once each month
instead of as the work comes in
Showing up on time for a
meeting that starts late
Delayed work due to lack of
communication from another
internal group
Waste of Waiting is the cost of an idle resource.
Idle time between operations or events, i.e. an employee waiting for machine cycle to finish or a
machine waiting for the operator to load new parts.
72
Elements of Waste
Waste Identification Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : To identify waste that occurs in

your processes.
W rite an example of each type of muda below:
O verproduction
C orrection
Inventory
Motion
O verprocessing
C onveyance
W aiting
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
___________________
Notes
73
Elements of Waste
5S The Basics
5S is a process designed to organize the workplace, keep it neat and
clean, maintain standardized conditions, and instill the discipline
required to enable each individual to achieve and maintain a world
class work environment.
Seiri - Put things in order

Seiton - Proper Arrangement
Seiso Clean
Seiketsu Purity
Shitsuke - Commitment
The term 5S derives from the Japanese words for five practices leading to a clean and
manageable work area. The five S are:
Seiri' means to separate needed tools, parts and instructions from unneeded materials and to
remove the latter.
'Seiton' means to neatly arrange and identify parts and tools for ease of use.
'Seiso' means to conduct a cleanup campaign.
'Seiketsu' means to conduct seiri, seiton and seiso at frequent, indeed daily, intervals to maintain a
workplace in perfect condition.
'Shitsuke' means to form the habit of always following the first four Ss.
Simply put, 5S means the workplace is clean, there is a place for everything and everything is in its
place. The 5S will create a work place that is suitable for and will stimulate high quality and high
productivity work. Additionally it will make the workplace more comfortable and a place of which you
can be proud.
Developed in Japan, this method assume no effective and quality job can be done without clean and
safe environment and without behavioral rules.
The 5S approach allows you to set up a well adapted and functional work environment, ruled by
simple yet effective rules. 5S deployment is done in a logical and progressive way. The first
three Ss are workplace actions, while the last two are sustaining and progress actions.
It is recommended to start implementing 5S in a well chosen pilot workspace or pilot process and
spread to the others step by step.
74
Elements of Waste
English Translation
There have been many attempts to force 5 English S words to maintain the original intent of 5S
from Japanese. Listed below are typical English words used to translate:
1. Sort (Seiri)
2. Straighten or Systematically Arrange (Seiton)
3. Shine or Spic and Span (Seiso)
4. Standardize (Seiketsu)
5. Sustain or Self-Discipline (Shitsuke)
Place things in such a

way that they can be
easily reached
whenever they are
needed
Straighten
Sort
Identify necessary items and
remove unnecessary ones, use
time management
Self - Discipline
Make 5S strong in
habit. Make
problems appear and
solve them.
Shine
5S
Visual sweep of areas,

eliminate dirt, dust and
scrap. Make workplace
shine.
Standardize
Work to standards,
maintain standards,
wear safety equipment.
Regardless of which S words you use, the intent is clear: Organize the workplace, keep it neat
and clean, maintain standardized conditions and instill the discipline required to enable each
individual to achieve and maintain a world class work environment.
75
Elements of Waste
5S Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : : To identify elements of 5 S in

your workplace.
W rite an example for each of the 5 S s below:
S ort
S tra ig hten
S hine
S ta nda rdiz e
S elf-D iscipline
____________________
____________________
____________________
____________________
____________________
Notes
76
Elements of Waste
Describe 5S
Identify and describe the 7 Elements of Waste
Provide examples of how Lean Principles can affect your area
You have now completed Define Phase Elements of Waste.
Notes
77
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Define Phase
Wrap Up and Action Items
Now we will conclude the Define Phase with Wrap Up and Action Items.
78

Define Phase OverviewThe Goal
The goal of the Define Phase is to:

Identify a process to improve and develop a specific Six Sigma
project.
Six Sigma Belts define critical processes, sub-processes and
elaborate the decision points in those processes.
Define is the contract phase of the project. We are determining

exactly what we intend to work on and estimating the impact to
the business.
At the completion of the Define Phase you should have a
description of the process defect that is creating waste for the
business.
Goooooaaaaalllll!!!
Define Action Items
At this point you should all understand what is necessary

to complete these action items associated with Define.
Charter Benefits Analysis
Team Members
Process Map high level
Primary Metric
Secondary Metric(s)
Lean Opportunities
Stakeholder Analysis
Project Plan
Issues and Barriers
Deliver the
Goods!!
79

Six Sigma Behaviors
Being tenacious, courageous

Being rigorous, disciplined
Making data-based decisions
Embracing change & continuous learning
Sharing best practices
Walk
the
Walk!!
Each player in the Six Sigma process must be

A ROLE MODEL
for the Six Sigma culture.
Define Phase The Roadblocks
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address them

before they become problems:
No historical data exists to support the project.
Team members do not have the time to collect data.
Data presented is the best guess by functional managers.
Data is communicated from poor systems.
The project is scoped too broadly.
The team creates the ideal Process Map rather than the as
is Process Map.
Clear the road

I m comin
through!!
80
Champion/
Process Owner
DMAIC Roadmap
Identify Problem Area
Define
Determine Appropriate Project Focus

Estimate COPQ
Measure
Establish Team
Assess Stability, Capability, and Measurement Systems
Improve
Analyze
Identify and Prioritize All X s
Prove/Disprove Impact X s Have On Problem
Identify, Prioritize, Select Solutions Control or Eliminate X s Causing Problems
Control
Implement Solutions to Control or Eliminate X s Causing Problems
Implement Control Plan to Ensure Problem Doesn t Return
Verify Financial Impact
Define Phase Deployment

The importance of the Define
Phase is to begin to understand
the problem and formulate it
into a project. Notice that if the
Recommended Project Focus is
approved the next step would
be team selection.
Business C ase
S elected
N otify Belts and S takeholders
C reate Hig h-Level Process Map
Determine A ppropriate Project Focus

(Pareto, Project Desirability)
Define & C harter Project
(Problem S tatement, O bjective, Primary Metric, S econdary Metric)
N
A pproved
Project
Focus
Estimate C O PQ
Recommend Project Focus

Y
C reate Team
C harter Team
Ready for Measure
81

Action Items Support List
Define Questions
Step One: Project Selection, Project Definition And Stakeholder Identification
Project Charter
What is the problem statement? Objective?
Is the business case developed?
What is the primary metric?
What are the secondary metrics?
Why did you choose these?
What are the benefits?
Have the benefits been quantified? It not, when will this be done?
Date:____________________________
Who is the customer (internal/external)?
Has the COPQ been identified?
Has the controllers office been involved in these calculations?
Who are the members on your team?
Does anyone require additional training to be fully effective on the team?
Voice of the Customer (VOC) and SIPOC defined
Voice of the customer identified?
Key issues with stakeholders identified?
VOC requirements identified?
Business Case data gathered, verified and displayed?
Step Two: Process Exploration
Processes Defined and High Level Process Map
Are the critical processes defined and decision points identified?
Are all the key attributes of the process defined?
Do you have a high level process map?
Who was involved in its development?
General Questions
Are there any issues/barriers that prevent you from completing this phase?
Do you have adequate resources to complete the project?
Have you completed your initial Define report out presentation?
These are some additional questions to ensure all the deliverables are achieved.
82

At this point, you should:
Have a clear understanding of the specific action items
Have started to develop a project plan to complete the action items
Have identified ways to deal with potential roadblocks
Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your business
You have now completed Define Phase.
Notes
83
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
Welcome to Measure
Now that we have completed Define we are going to jump into the Measure Phase.
Here you enter the world of measurement, where you can discover the ultimate source of
problem-solving power: data. Process improvement is all about narrowing down to the vital few
factors that influence the behavior of a system or a process. The only way to do this is to
measure and observe your process characteristics and your critical-to-quality characteristics.
Measurement is generally the most difficult and time-consuming phase in the DMAIC
methodology. But if you do it well, and right the first time, you will save your self a lot of trouble
later and maximize your chance of improvement.
Welcome to the Measure Phase - will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
84
Welcome to Measure
Overview
These are the modules
we will cover in the
Measure Phase.
Welc
Welcome to Meas
ome to Measure
ure
PProc
roces
esss Dis
Disccovery
overy
SS ix S
ix S ig
igma S
ma S tatis
tatistic
ticss
Meas
Measurement S
urement S ys
ys tem Analys
tem Analys is
is
PProc
roces
esss C
C apability
apability
Wrap Up & Ac
tion Items
C hampion/
Process O wner
DMAIC Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
Implement C ontrol Pla n to Ensure Problem Doesnt Return
Here is the overview of the DMAIC process. Within measure we are going to start getting into
details about process performance, measurement systems and variable prioritization.
85
Welcome to Measure
Measure Phase Deployment
Detailed Problem Statement Determined

Detailed Process Mapping
Identify All Process Xs Causing Problems (Fishbone, Process Map)
Select the Vital Few Xs Causing Problems (X-Y Matrix, FMEA)

Assess Measurement System
Repeatable &
Reproducible?
Implement Changes to Make System Acceptable

Assess Stability (Statistical Control)
Assess Capability (Problem with Centering/Spread)
Estimate Process Sigma Level
Review Progress with Champion
Ready for Analyze
This provides a process look at putting Measure to work. By the time we complete this phase you
will have a thorough understanding of the various Measure Phase concepts.
86
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
Process Discovery
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with Process Discovery.
87
Process Discovery
Overview
Welc
Welcome to Meas
ome to Meas ure
ure
PProc
roces
es ss D
Dis
is cc overy
overy
CC aus
ause & E
e & E ffect D
ffect Diagram
iagram
D
Detailed P
etailed Proces
rocesss Mapping
Mapping
CC aus
ause and E
e and E ffect D
ffect Diagrams
iagrams
FFME
ME A
A
SS ix
ix S
S ig
igma S
ma S tatis
tatis tic
ticss
Meas
Meas urement S
urement S ys
ys tem Analys
tem Analys is
is
PProc
roces
es ss C
C apability
apability
Wrap Up & Ac
tion Items
The purpose of this module is highlighted above. We will review tools to help facilitate Process
Discovery.
This will be a lengthy step as it requires a full characterization of your selected process.
There are four key deliverables from the Measure Phase:
(1) A robust description of the process and its workflow
(2) A quantitative assessment of how well the process is actually working
(3) An assessment of any measurement systems used to gather data for making decisions or to
describe the performance of the process
(4) A short list of the potential causes of our problem, these are the Xs that are most likely
related to the problem.
On the next lesson page we will help you develop a visual and mental model that will give you
leverage in finding the causes to any problem..
88
Process Discovery
Overview of Brainstorming Techniques
C aus e a nd E ffec t D iag ram

P eople
Machine
Method
The Y
The o r
P roblem
roblem
CPondition
The X s
(C aus es )
l
Material
Measurement
E nvironment
C ateg ories
You will need to use brainstorming techniques to identify all possible problems and their causes.
Brainstorming techniques work because the knowledge and ideas of two or more persons is
always greater than that of any one individual.
Brainstorming will generate a large number of ideas or possibilities in a relatively short time.
Brainstorming tools are meant for teams, but can be used at the individual level also.
Brainstorming will be a primary input for other improvement and analytical tools that you will use.
You will learn two excellent brainstorming techniques, cause and effect diagrams and affinity
diagrams. Cause and effect diagrams are also called Fishbone Diagrams because of their
appearance and sometimes called Ishikawa diagrams after their inventor.
In a brainstorming session, ideas are expressed by the individuals in the session and written down
without debate or challenge. The general steps of a brainstorming sessions are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Agree on the category or condition to be considered.

Encourage each team member to contribute.
Discourage debates or criticism, the intent is to generate ideas and
not to qualify them, that will come later.
Contribute in rotation (take turns), or free flow, ensure every member
has an equal opportunity.
Listen to and respect the ideas of others.
Record all ideas generated about the subject.
Continue until no more ideas are offered.
Edit the list for clarity and duplicates.
89
Process Discovery
Cause and Effect Diagram
A cause and effect diagram is a composition of lines and words representing a meaningful
relationship between an effect, or condition, and its causes. To focus the effort and facilitate
thought, the legs of the diagram are given categorical headings. Two common templates for the
headings are for product related and transactional related efforts. Transactional is meant for
processes where there is no traditional or physical product; rather it is more like an administrative
process.
Transactional processes are characterized as processes dealing with forms, ideas, people,
decisions and services. You would most likely use the product template for determining the cause
of burnt pizza and use the transactional template if you were trying to reduce order defects from
the order taking process. A third approach is to identify all categories as you best perceive them.
When performing a cause and effect diagram, keep drilling down, always asking why, until you
find the root causes of the problem. Start with one category and stay with it until you have
exhausted all possible inputs and then move to the next category. The next step is to rank each
potential cause by its likelihood of being the root cause. Rank it by the most likely as a 1, second
most likely as a 2 and so on. This make take some time, you may even have to create subsections like 2a, 2b, 2c, etc. Then come back to reorder the sub-section in to the larger ranking.
This is your first attempt at really finding the Y=f(X); remember the funnel? The top Xs have the
potential to be the critical Xs, those Xs which exert the most influence on the output Y.
Finally you will need to determine if each cause is a control or a noise factor. This as you know
is a requirement for the characterization of the process. Next we will explain the meaning and
methods of using some of the common categories.
90
Process Discovery
91
Process Discovery
Classifying the Xs
T he C au s e & E ffec t D iagram is s imply a tool to g enerate opinions

about pos s ible caus es for defects .
F or each of the X s identified in the F is hbone diagram clas s ify them
as follows :
C ontrollable C (K nowledg e)
P rocedural P (P eople, S ys tems )
Nois e N (E xternal or U ncontrollable)
T hink of procedural as a s ubs et of controllable. U nfortunately, many

procedures within a company are not well controlled and can caus e
the defect level to g o up. T he clas s ification methodolog y is us ed to
s eparate the X s s o they can be us ed in the X -Y D iagram and the
F ME A taug ht later in this module.
WH IC H X s C A US E D E F E C T S ?
The Cause and Effect Diagram is an organized way to approach brainstorming. This approach
allows us to further organize ourselves by classifying the Xs into controllable, procedural or noise
types.
92
Process Discovery
Chemical Purity Example
Measurement
Incoming QC (P)
Manpower
Materials
Raw Materials (C)
Training on method (P)
Measurement
Method (P)
Measurement
Capability (C)
Skill Level (P)
Insufficient staff (C)
Multiple Vendors (C)

Specifications (C)
Adherence to procedure (P)

Work order variability (N)
Startup inspection (P)

Handling (P)
Purification Method (P)
Room Humidity (N)

RM Supply in Market (N)
Shipping Methods (C)
Column Capability (C)
Chemical
Purity
Nozzle type (C)

Temp controller (C)
Data collection/feedback
(P)
Methods
Mother Nature
Equipment
This example of the cause and effect diagram is of chemical purity. Notice how the input variables for
each branch are classified as Controllable, Procedural and Noise.
Cause & Effect Diagram SigmaXL
The Fishbone Diagram shown here for Surface Flaws was generated in SigmaXL. We will now
review the various steps for creating a Cause & Effect Diagram using the SigmaXL statistical
software package.
93
Process Discovery
Cause & Effect Diagram - SigmaXL
Select SigmaXL >Templates and Calculators>DMAIC and DFSS Templates>Cause & Effect
(Fishbone) Template.
Take a few moments to study the worksheet. Notice the six groups are the classic bones for a
Fishbone. Enter each Cause under the appropriate heading: People, Method, Material, Machine,
Measurement, and Environment. You may enter up to 2 Sub-causes for each Cause.
94
Process Discovery
Cause & Effect Diagram - SigmaXL (cont.)
Fill in the template as shown above. Click the Fishbone Diagram button to generate the Cause
and Effect Diagram.
You may modify the results to add data, however due to the simplicity of the template it is
recommended that you add to the template and recreate the chart.
95
Process Discovery
Cause & Effect Diagram Exercise
Exercise objective: Create a Fishbone Diagram.

1. Retrieve the high level Process Map for your project
and use it to complete a Fishbone, if possible include
your project team.
Don t let the

big one get
away!!
96
Process Discovery
Overview of Process Mapping
In o rd e r to co r re ctly m a n a g e a p ro ce s s , y o u
m u s t b e a b le to d e s crib e it in a w a y th a t ca n b e
e a s ily u n d e rs to o d .
S te p B
S te p C
sp
S te p A
S te p D
Fin is h
In
S ta rt
ec
The preferred method for describing a process is

to identify it with a g eneric name, show the
workflow with a Process Map and describe its
purpose with an operational description.
The first activity of the Measure Phase is to
adequately describe the process under
investig ation.
Process Mapping, also called flowcharting, is a technique to visualize the tasks, activities and steps
necessary to produce a product or a service. The preferred method for describing a process is to
identify it with a generic name, show the workflow with a Process Map and describe its purpose with
an operational description.
Remember that a process is a blending of inputs to produce some desired output. The intent of each
task, activity and step is to add value, as perceived by the customer, to the product or service we are
producing. You cannot discover if this is the case until you have adequately mapped the process.
There are many reasons for creating a Process Map:
- It helps all process members understand their part in the process and how their process fits into the
bigger picture.
- It describes how activities are performed and how the work effort flows, it is a visual way of standing
above the process and watching how work is done. In fact, process maps can be easily uploaded
into model and simulation software where computers allow you to simulate the process and visually
see how it works.
- It can be used as an aid in training new people.
- It will show you where you can take measurements that will help you to run the process better.
- It will help you understand where problems occur and what some of the causes may be.
- It leverages other analytical tools by providing a source of data and inputs into these tools.
- It identifies and leads you to many important characteristics you will need as you strive to make
improvements.
Individual maps developed by Process Members form the basis of Process Management. The
individual processes are linked together to see the total effort and flow for meeting business and
customer needs.
In order to improve or to correctly manage a process, you must be able to describe it in a way that
can be easily understood, that is why the first activity of the Measure Phase is to adequately describe
the process under investigation. Process Mapping is the most important and powerful tool you will
use to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of a process.
97
Process Discovery
Information from Process Mapping
These are more reasons
why Process Mapping is
the most important and
powerful tool you will
need to solve a problem.
It has been said that Six
Sigma is the most
efficient problem solving
methodology available.
This is because work
done with one tool sets
up another tool, very little
information and work is
wasted. Later you will
learn to how to further
use the information and
knowledge you gather
from Process Mapping.
By mapping processes we can identify many important

characteristics and develop information for other
analytical tools:
1. Process inputs (Xs)
2. Supplier requirements
3. Process outputs (Ys)
4. Actual customer needs
5. All value-added and non-value added process tasks and steps
6. Data collection points
Cycle times
Defects
Inventory levels
Cost of poor quality, etc.
7. Decision points
8. Problems that have immediate fixes
9. Process control needs
Process Mapping
T here are us ually three views of a proc es s :
What you THINK it is..
What it ACTUALLY is..
What it SHOULD be..
There are usually three views

of a process: The first view is
what you think the process
is in terms of its size, how
work flows and how well the
process works. In virtually all
cases the extent and difficulty
of performing the process is
understated.
It is not until someone

Process Maps the process
that the full extent and
difficulty is known, and it
virtually is always larger than
what we thought, is more
difficult and it cost more to
operate than we realize. It is here that we discover the hidden operations also. This is the second
view: what the process actually is.
Then there is the third view: what it should be. This is the result of process improvement activities.
It is precisely what you will be doing to the key process you have selected during the weeks between
classes. As a result of your project you will either have created the what it should be or will be well
on your way to getting there. In order to find the what it should be process, you have to learn
process mapping and literally walk the process via a team method to document how it works. This
is a much easier task then you might suspect, as you will learn over the next several lessons.
We will start by reviewing the standard Process Mapping symbols.
98
Process Discovery
Standard Process Mapping Symbols
Standard symbols for Process Mapping:

(available in Microsoft Office, Visio, iGrafx , SigmaFlow and other products)
A RECTANGLE indicates an
activity. Statements within
the rectangle should begin
with a verb
A PARALLELAGRAM shows
that there are data
A DIAMOND signifies a decision

point. Only two paths emerge from
a decision point: No and Yes
An ELLIPSE shows the start

and end of the process
An ARROW shows the

connection and direction
of flow
A CIRCLE WITH A LETTER OR

NUMBER INSIDE symbolizes
the continuation of a
flowchart to another page
There may be several interpretations of some of the Process Mapping symbols; however, just about
everyone uses these primary symbols to document processes. As you become more practiced you
will find additional symbols useful, i.e. reports, data storage etc. For now we will start with just these
symbols.
99
Process Discovery
Process Mapping Levels
L evel 1 T he Mac ro P roc es s Map, s ometimes c alled a

Manag ement level or viewpoint.
C alls
for
O rder
C us tomer
Hungry
T ake
O rder
Make
P izza
C ook
P izza
P izza
C orrect
B ox
P izza
D eliver
P izza
C us tomer
E ats
L evel 2 T he P roc es s Map, s ometimes c alled the Worker level or

viewpoint. T his example is from the pers pec tive of the piz z a c he f
Pizza
Dough
No
Take Order
from Cashier
Place in
Oven
Add
Ingredients
Observe
Frequently
Check
if Done
Yes
Remove
from Oven
Start New
Pizza
Scrap
No
1
Pizza
Correct
Yes
Place in
Box
Tape
Order on
Box
Put on
Delivery Rack
L evel 3 T he Mic ro P roc es s Map, s ometimes c alled the Improvement

level or viewpoint. S imilar to a level 2, it will s how more s tep s and tas ks
and on it will be various performanc e data; yields , c yc le time, value and
non value added time, defec ts , etc .
Before Process Mapping starts, you have to learn about the different level of detail on a Process
Map and the different types of Process Maps. Fortunately these have been well categorized and
are easy to understand.
There are three different levels of Process Maps. You will need to use all three levels and you
most likely will use them in order from the macro map to the micro map. The macro map contains
the least level of detail, with increasing detail as you get to the micro map. You should think of and
use the level of Process Maps in a way similar to the way you would use road maps. For example,
if you want to find a country, you look at the world map. If you want to find a city in that country,
you look at the country map. If you want to find a street address in the city, you use a city map.
This is the general rule or approach for using Process Maps.
The Macro Process Map, what is called the Level 1 Map, shows the big picture, you will use this to
orient yourself to the way a product or service is created. It will also help you to better see which
major step of the process is most likely related to the problem you have and it will put the various
processes that you are associated with in the context of the larger whole. A Level 1 PFM,
sometimes called the management level, is a high-level process map having the following
characteristics:
Combines related activities into one major processing step
Illustrates where/how the process fits into the big picture
Has minimal detail
Illustrates only major process steps
Can be completed with an understanding of general process steps and the
purpose/objective of the process
100
Process Discovery
Process Mapping Levels (cont.)
The next level is generically called the Process Map. You will refer to it as a Level 2 Map and it
identifies the major process steps from the workers point of view. In the pizza example above,
these are the steps the pizza chef takes to make, cook and box the pizza for delivery. It gives you a
good idea of what is going on in this process, but could can you fully understand why the process
performs the way it does in terms of efficiency and effectiveness, could you improve the process
with the level of knowledge from this map?
Probably not, you are going to need a Level 3 Map called the Micro Process Map. It is also known
as the improvement view of a process. There is however a lot of value in the Level 2 Map, because
it is helping you to see and understand how work gets done, who does it, etc. It is a necessary
stepping stone to arriving at improved performance.
Next we will introduce the four different types of Process Maps. You will want to use different types
of Process Maps, to better help see, understand and communicate the way processes behave.
Types of Process Maps

There are four types of Process Maps that you will use. They are the Linear Flow Map, the
deployment or Swim Lane Flow Map, the S-I-P-0-C Map (pronounced sigh-pock) and the Value
Stream Map.
T he L inear-F low P roc es s Map
Customer
Hungry
Calls
for
Order
Take
Order
Make
Pizza
Cook
Pizza
Pizza
Correct
Box
Pizza
Deliver
Pizza
Customer
Eats
As the name s tates , this diag ram s hows the proc es s s teps in a s e quential flow, g enerally ordered
from an upper left c orner of the map towards the rig ht s ide.
Customer
Hungry
Calls for
Order
Deliverer
Cook
Cashier
Customer
T he D eployment-F low or S wim L ane P roc es s Map

Customer
Eats
Take
Order
Make
Pizza
Cook
Pizza
Pizza
Correct
Box
Pizza
Deliver
Pizza
T he value of the S wim L ane map is that is s hows you who or whic h department is res pons ible for
the s teps in a proc es s . T his c an provide powerful ins ig hts in th e way a proc es s performs . A
timeline c an be added to s how how long it takes eac h g roup to pe rform their work. Als o eac h
time work moves ac ros s a s wim lane, there is a S upplier C us tomer interac tion. T his is us ually
where bottlenec ks and queues form.
While they all show how work gets done, they emphasize different aspects of process flow and
provide you with alternative ways to understand the behavior of the process so you can do
something about it. The Linear Flow Map is the most traditional and is usually where most start the
mapping effort.
The Swim Lane Map adds another dimension of knowledge to the picture of the process: Now you
can see which department area or person is responsible. You can use the various types of maps
in the form of any of the three levels of a Process Map.
101
Process Discovery
Process Maps Examples for Different Processes
Linear Process Map for Door Manufacturing
Begin
Prep doors
Inspect
Pre-cleaning
Return
for
rework
Install into
work jig
Mark for door

handle
drilling
Inspect
finish
Light sanding
Rework
Drill holes
Scratch
repair
De-burr and
smooth hole
Apply part
number
Final
cleaning
Move to
finishing
Apply stain
and dry
Inspect
End
Inspect
Scrap
Prepare
paperwork
(CAAR &
installation
request)
Review &
approve
CAAR
Receive &
use
Review &
approve
standard
Supplier Procurement Top Mgt/ Finance

Corporate
I.T.
Business
Unit
Swim Lane Process Map for Capital Equip

Define
Needs
Configure
& install
Review &
approve
CAAR
Issue
payment
Review &
approve
CAAR
Acquire
equipment
Supplier
Paid
Supplier
Ships
21 days
6 days
5 days
15 days
17 days
7 days
71 days
50 days

The SIPOC diagram is
especially useful after
you have been able to
construct either a Level 1
or Level 2 Map because
it facilitates your
gathering of other
pertinent data that is
affecting the process in a
systematic way. It will
help you to better see
and understand all of the
influences affecting the
behavior and
performance of the
process.
The SIPOC Process Map

Supplier Input Process Output Customer
Suppliers
Inputs
Process
Outputs
See Below
Customers
Requirements
Price
Cook
Complete call < 3 min
Size
Order confirmation
Accounting
Order to Cook < 1 minute
TI Calculators
Quantity
Bake order
Complete bake order
NEC Cash Register
Extra Toppings
Data on cycle time
Correct bake order
Special orders
Order rate data
Correct address
Drink types & quantities
Order transaction
Correct Price
Other products
Delivery info
ATT Phones
Pizza type
Office Depot
Phone number
Address
Name
Time, day and date
Volume
Level 1 Process Map for Customer Order Process

Call for an
Answer
Write
Confirm
Sets
Address &
Order to
You may also add a

Cook
Order
Phone
Order
Order
Price
Phone
requirements section
to both the supplier side and the customer side to capture the expectations for the inputs and the
outputs of the process. Doing a SIPOC is a great building block to creating the Level 3 Micro
Process Map. The two really compliment each other and give you the power to make
improvements to the process.
102
Process Discovery
The Value Stream Map is a specialized map that helps you to understand numerous performance
metrics associated primarily with the speed of the process, but has many other important data. While
this Process Map level is at the macro level, the Value Stream Map provides you a lot of detailed
performance data for the major steps of the process. It is great for finding bottlenecks in the process.
Process Mapping Exercise Going to Work
T he purpos e of this ex erc is e is to develop a L evel 1 Mac ro, L ine ar

P roc es s F low Map and then c onvert this map to a S wim L ane Map.
R ead the following bac kg round for the ex erc is e: Y ou have been concerned
about your ability to arrive at work on time and als o the amount of time it takes
from the time your alarm goes off until you arrive at work. T o help you better
unders tand both the variation in arrival times and the total tim e, you decide to
create a L evel 1 Macro P roces s Map. F or purpos es of this exercis e, the s tart is
when your alarm goes off the firs t time and the end is when you arrive at your
work s tation.
T as k 1 Mentally think about the various tas ks and activities that you routinely
do from the defined s tart to the end points of the exercis e.
T as k 2 Us ing a pencil and paper create a linear proces s map at the mac ro
level, but with enough detail that you can s ee all the major s te ps of your
proces s .
T as k 3 F rom the L inear P roces s Map, create a s wim lane s tyle P roces s Map.
F or the lanes you may us e the different phas es of your proces s , s uch as the
wake up phas e, getting prepared, driving, etc.
103
Process Discovery
A Process Map of Process Mapping
Process Mapping
follows a general
order, but sometimes
you may find it
necessary, even
advisable to deviate
somewhat. However,
you will find this a
good path to follow
as it has proven itself
to generate
significant results.
S elec t the proc es s
C reate the L evel 2

PFM
C reate a L evel 3
PFM
D etermine
approac h to map
the proc es s
P erform S IP O C
Add P erformanc e
data
C omplete L evel 1
P F M works heet
Identify all X s and

Y s
Identify V A/NVA
s teps
C reate L evel 1 P F M
Identify c us tomer
requirements
On the lessons
ahead we will always
show you where you
Identify s upplier
D efine the s c ope
for the L evel 2 P F M
requirements
are at in this
sequence of tasks
for Process Mapping. Before we begin our Process Mapping we will first start you off with how to
determine the approach to mapping the process.
Basically there are two approaches: the individual and the team approach.
Process Mapping Approach
S elec t the
proc es s
D etermine
approac h to
map the
proc es s
C omplete
L evel 1
P F M
works heet
C reate
L evel 1
PFM
D efine the
s c ope for
the L evel 2
PFM
Us ing the Individual A pproac h

1. S tart with the L evel 1 Macro P roces s Map.
2. Meet with proc es s owner(s ) / manag er(s ). C reate a
L evel 1 Ma p a nd obtain approval to interview
proces s members .
3. S tarting with the beg inning of the proces s , pretend
you are the product or s ervice flowing throug h the
proces s , interview to g ather information.
4. A s the interview prog res s , as s emble the data into a
L evel 2 P F M.
5. V erify the accuracy of the L evel 2 P F M with the
individuals who provided input.
6. Update the L evel 2 P F M as needed.
Us ing the T eam A pproac h
1. F ollow the T eam A pproac h to P roc es s Mapping
If you decide to do the individual approach, here are a few key factors: You must pretend that you are
the product or service flowing through the process and you are trying to experience all of the tasks
that happen through the various steps.
You must start by talking to the manager of the area and/or the process owner. This is where you will
develop the Level 1 Macro Process Map. While you are talking to him, you will need to receive
permission to talk to various members of the process in order to get the detailed information you need.
104
Process Discovery
Process Mapping Approach
Process Mapping
works best with a
team approach. The
logistics of
performing the
mapping are
somewhat different,
but it overall it takes
less time, the quality
of the output is
higher and you will
have more buy-in
into the results. Input
should come from
people familiar with
all stages of process.
S elec t the
proc es s
Determine
approac h to
map the
proc es s
C omplete
L evel 1
P F M
works heet
C reate
L evel 1
PFM
Define the
s c ope for
the L evel 2
PFM
Us ing the T eam Approac h

1. S tart with the L evel 1 Macro P roces s Map.
2. Meet with proces s owner(s ) / manager(s ). C reate a
L evel 1 Map and obtain approval to call a proces s
mapping meeting with proces s members (S ee team
works hop ins tructions for details on running the
meeting).
3. B ring key members of the proces s into the proces s
flow works hop. If the proces s is large in s cope, hold
individual works hops for each s ubs ection of the
total proces s . S tart with the beginning s teps .
O rganiz e meeting to us e the pos t-it note approach
to gather individual tas ks and activities , bas ed on
the macro map, that compris e the proces s .
4. Immediately as s emble the information that has
been provided into a P roces s Map.
5. V erify the P F M by dis cus s ing it with proces s owners
and by obs erving the actual proces s from beginning
to end.
Where appropriate the team should include line individuals, supervisors, design engineers,
process engineers, process technicians, maintenance, etc. The team process mapping
workshop is where it all comes together.
Select the
process
Determine
approach to
map the
process
T he T eam P roc es s Mapping Works hop

1.
2.
3.
Complete
Level 1
PFM
worksheet
Create
Level 1
PFM
Define the
scope for
the Level 2
PFM
4.
5.
6.
7.
A dd to and agree on Macro P roces s Map.

Us ing 8.5 X 11 paper for each macro proces s s tep,
tape the proces s to the wall in a linear s tyle.
P roces s Members then lis t all known proces s tas ks
that they do on a P os t-it note, one proces s tas k per
note.
Include the actual time s pent to perform each
activity, do not include any wait time or queue
time.
L is t any known performance data that des cribe
the quality of the tas k.
P lace the pos t-it notes on the wall under the
appropriate macro s tep in the order of the work flow.
R eview proces s with whole group, add additional
information and clos e meeting.
Immediately cons olidate information into a L evel 2
P roces s Map.
Y ou will s till have to verify the map by walking the
proces s .
In summary, after adding to and agreeing to the Macro Process Map, the team process mapping
approach is performed using multiple post-it notes where each person writes one task per note and,
when finished, place them onto a wall which contains a large scale Macro Process Map.
This is a very fast way to get a lot of information including how long it takes to do a particular task.
Using the Value Stream Analysis techniques which you will study later, you will use this data to
improve the process. We will now discuss the development of the various levels of Process Mapping.
105
Process Discovery
Steps in Generating a Level 1 PFM
You may recall that the
preferred method for
C reating a L evel 1 P F M
describing a process is to
S elec t the
proc es s
1. Identify a generic name for the proces s :
identify it with a generic
F or ins tance: C us tomer order proces s
name, describe its purpose
2. Identify the beginning and ending s teps of the proces s :
Determine
with an operational
approac h to
B eg inning - cus tomer calls in. E nding baked piz z a given to
map the
operations
description and show the
proc es s
3. D es cribe the primary purpos e and objective of the proces s
workflow with a process
(operational definition):
C omplete
T he purpos e of the proces s is to obtain telephone orders for
L evel 1
map. When developing a
piz z as , s ell additional products if pos s ible, let the cus tomer
P F M
works heet
Macro Process Map, always
know the price and approximate delivery time, provide an
accurate cook order, log the time and immediately give it to the
add one process step in front
piz z a cooker.
C reate
of and behind the area you
4. Mentally walk through the major s teps of the proces s and
L evel 1
write them down:
PFM
believe contains your
R eceive the order via phone call from the cus tomer, calculate
problem as a minimum. To
the price, create a build order and provide the order to
Define the
operations
aid you in your start, we
s c ope for
5. Us e s tandard flowcharting s ymbols to order and to illus trate
the L evel 2
have provided you with a
PFM
the flow of the major proces s s teps .
checklist or worksheet. You
may acquire this data from
your own knowledge and/or with the interviews you do with the managers / process owners. Once you
have this data, and you should do this before drawing maps, you will be well positioned to
communicate with others and you will be much more confident as you proceed.
A Macro Process Map can be useful when reporting project status to management. A macro-map can
show the scope of the project, so management can adjust their expectations accordingly. Remember,
only major process steps are included. For example, a step listed as Plating in a manufacturing
Macro Process Map, might actually consists of many steps: pre-clean, anodic cleaning, cathodic
activation, pre-plate, electro-deposition, reverse-plate, rinse and spin-dry, etc. The plating step in the
macro-map will then be detailed in the Level 2 Process Map.
Exercise Generate a Level 1 PFM
106
Process Discovery
Exercise Generate a Level 1 PFM (cont.)
If necessary, you may look
at the example for the Pizza
order entry process.
1. Identify a generic name for the proces s :
2. Identify the beginning and ending s teps of the proces s :
3. D es cribe the primary purpos e and objective of the proces s

(operational definition):
4. Mentally walk through the major s teps of the proces s and write
them down:
5. Us e s tandard flowcharting s ymbols to order and to illus trate the flow

of the major proces s s teps on a s eparate s heet of paper.
Exercise Generate a Level 1 PFM Solution
1.
Identify a generic name for the proces s :

(I.E . cus tomer order proces s ).
Identify the beginning and ending s teps of the proces s :

(beg inning - cus tomer calls in, ending piz z a order given to the chef).
D es cribe the primary purpos e and objective of the proces s (operational

definition): (T he purpos e of the proces s is to obtain telephone orders for
P iz z as , s ell additional products if pos s ible, let the cus tomer k now the
price and approximate delivery time, provide an accurate cook order, log
the time and immediately give it to the piz z a cooker).
Mentally walk through the major s teps of the proces s and write them
down:
(R eceive the order via phone call from the cus tomer, calculate the price,
create a build order and provide the order to the chef).
Us e s tandard flowcharting s ymbols to order and to illus trate the flow of

the major proces s s teps on a s eparate s heet of paper.
107
Process Discovery
Defining the Scope of Level 2 PFM
With a completed Level 1
PFM, you can now see
where you have to go to get
more detailed information.
You will have the basis for a
Level 2 Process Map.
The improvements are in
the details. If the efficiency
or effectiveness of the
process could be
significantly improved by a
broad summary analysis,
the improvement would be
done already. If you map
the process at an
actionable level, you can
identify the source of
inefficiencies and defects.
But you need to be careful
about mapping too little an
area and missing your
problem cause, or mapping
to large an area in detail,
thereby wasting your
valuable time.
The rules for determining the
scope of the Level 2 Process
Map:
a) Look at your Macro Process
Map, select the area which
represents your problem.
b) Map this area at a Level 2.
c) Start and end at natural
starting and stopping points for
a process, in other words you
have the complete associated
process.
C us tomer O rder P roces s
S elect the
proces s
C ustomer
Hungry
C alls for
Order
Determine
approach to
map the
proces s
C us tomer O rder P roces s
Take
Order
Make
P izza
Deliver
P izza
C ustomer
E ats
No
Take Order
from Cashier
Place in
Oven
Add
Ingredients
Observe
Frequently
Check
if Done
Yes
Remove
from Oven
Start New
Pizza
Scrap
No
Pizza
Correct
Define the
s cope for
the L evel 2
PF M
Box
P izza
Pizza
Dough
C omplete
L evel 1
PF M
works heet
C reate
L evel 1
PF M
C ook
P izza
Yes
Place in
Box
Tape
Order on
Box
Put on
Delivery Rack
The rules for d etermining the L evel 2 P roces s Map s cope:

F rom your Macro P rocess Map, s elect the a rea which represents y our
problem.
Map this a rea a t a L evel 2 .
S tart a nd e nd a t natural s tarting a nd s topping points for a process, in
other words you have the c omplete a ssociated process.
C re a te th e
Le v e l 2 P FM
Pizza
Dough
No
P e rfo rm
S IP O C
Take Order
from Cashier
Place in
Oven
Add
Ingredients
Observe
Frequently
Check
if Done
Yes
Remove
from Oven
Start New
Pizza
Id e n tify a ll
X s a n d Y s
Scrap
No
Id e n tify
cu s to m e r
re q u ire m e n ts
Pizza
Correct
Yes
Place in
Box
Tape
Order on
Box
Put on
Delivery Rack
When you perform the process

Id e n tify
mapping workshop or do the
s u p p lie r
re q u ire m e n ts
individual interviews, you will
determine how the various
tasks
and activities form a complete step. Do not worry about precisely defining the steps, it is not an
exact science, common sense will prevail. If you have done a process mapping workshop, which
you will remember we highly recommended, you will actually have a lot of the data for the Level 3
Micro Process Map. You will now perform a SIPOC and, with the other data you already have, it will
position you for about 70 percent to 80 percent of the details you will need for the Level 3 Process
Map.
108
Process Discovery
Building a SIPOC
SIPOC diagram for customer-order process:
Create the
Level 2 PFM
Suppliers
ATT Phones
Office Depot
TI Calculators
NEC Cash Register
Perform
SIPOC
Inputs
Process
See Below
Pizza type
Size
Quantity
Extra Toppings
Special orders
Drink types & quantities
Other products
Phone number
Outputs
Customers
Price
Order confirmation
Bake order
Data on cycle time
Order rate data
Order transaction
Delivery info
Cook
Accounting
Requirements
Complete call < 3 min
Order to Cook < 1 minute
Complete bake order
Correct bake order
Correct address
Correct Price
Address
Name
Time, day and date
Volume
Identify all X s
and Y s
Identify
customer
requirements
Identify
supplier
requirements
Customer Order:
Level 1 process flow diagram
Call for
an Order
Answer
Phone
Write
Order
Confirm
Order
Sets
Price
Address
& Phone
Order to
Cook
The tool name prompts the team to consider the suppliers (the 'S' in SIPOC) of your process, the
inputs (the 'I') to the process, the process (the 'P') your team is improving, the outputs (the 'O') of
the process and the customers (the 'C') that receive the process outputs.
Requirements of the customers can be appended to the end of the SIPOC for further detail and
requirements are easily added for the suppliers as well.
The SIPOC tool is particularly useful in identifying:
Who supplies inputs to the process?
What are all of the inputs to the process we are aware of? (Later in the DMAIC methodology
you will use other tools which will find still more inputs, remember Y=f(X) and if we are going to
improve Y, we are going to have to find all the Xs.
What specifications are placed on the inputs?
What are all of the outputs of the process?
Who are the true customers of the process?
What are the requirements of the customers?
You can actually begin with the Level 1 PFM that has 4 to 8 high-level steps, but a Level 2 PFM is even
of more value. Creating a SIPOC with a process mapping team, again the recommended method is a
wall exercise similar to your other process mapping workshop. Create an area that will allow the team to
place post-it note additions to the 8.5 X 11 sheets with the letters S, I, P, O and C on them with a copy of
the Process Map below the sheet with the letter P on it.
Hold a process flow workshop with key members. (Note: If the process is large in scope, hold an
individual workshop for each subsection of the total process, starting with the beginning steps).
The preferred order of the steps is as follows:
1. Identify the outputs of this overall process.
2. Identify the customers who will receive the outputs of the process.
3. Identify customers preliminary requirements
4. Identify the inputs required for the process.
5. Identify suppliers of the required inputs that are necessary for the process to function.
6. Identify the preliminary requirements of the inputs for the process to function properly.
109
Process Discovery
Identifying Customer Requirements
You are now ready to
identify the customer
requirements for the
outputs you have defined.
Customer requirements,
called VOC, determine
what are and are not
acceptable for each of the
outputs. You may find that
some of the outputs do not
have requirements or
specifications. For a well
managed process, this is
not acceptable. If this is the
case, you must ask/
negotiate with the customer
as to what is acceptable.
There is a technique for
determining the validity of
C reate the
L evel 2 P F M
Process Name
Operational
Definition
PROCESS OUTPUT
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS
1
Output Data
Customer (Name)
P erform
S IP OC
Process Output - Name (Y)
Internal
External
Metric
6
7
Requirements Data
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Measurement
System (How is it
Measured)
10
Measurement Data
Frequency of
Measurement
11
Performance Level Data
12
Value Data
VA
or
NVA
13
General Data/Information
Comments
Identify a ll X s
and Y s
Identify
c us tomer
requirements
Identify
s upplier
requirements
customer and supplier requirements. It is called RUMBA standing for: Reasonable, Understandable,
Measurable, Believable and Achievable. If a requirement cannot meet all of these characteristics, then it
is not a valid requirement , hence the word negotiation. We have included the process for validating
customer requirements at the end of this lesson.
The Excel spreadsheet is somewhat self explanatory. You will use a similar form for identifying the
supplier requirements. Start by writing in the process name followed by the process operational
definition. The operational definition is a short paragraph which states why the process exists, what it
does and what its value proposition is. Always take sufficient time to write this such that anyone who
reads it will be able to understand the process. Then list each of the outputs, the Ys, and write in the
customers name who receives this output, categorized as an internal or external customer.
Next are the requirements data. To specify and measure something, it must have a unit of measure;
called a metric. As an example, the metric for the speed of your car is miles per hour, for your weight it
is pounds, for time it is hours or minutes and so on. You may know what the LSL and USL are but you
may not have a target value. A target is the value the customer prefers all the output to be centered at;
essentially, the average of the distribution. Sometimes it is stated as 1 hour +/- 5 minutes. One hour is
the target, the LSL is 55 minutes and the USL is 65 minutes. A target may not be specified by the
customer; if not, put in what the average would be. You will want to minimize the variation from this
value.
You will learn more about measurement, but for now you must know that if something is required, you
must have a way to measure it as specified in column 9. Column 10 is how often the measurement is
made and column 11 is the current value for the measurement data. Column 12 is for identifying if this is
a value or non value added activity; more on that later. And finally column 13 is for any comments you
want to make about the output.
You will come back to this form and rank the significance of the outputs in terms of importance to
identify the CTQs.
110
Process Discovery
Identifying Supplier Requirements
The supplier input or
process input identification
and analysis form is nearly
identical to the output form
just covered. Now you are
the customer, you will
specify what is required of
your suppliers for your
process to work correctly;
remember RUMBA the
same rules apply.
You will notice a new
parameter introduced in
column 2. It asks if the input
is a controlled input or an
uncontrolled input (noise).
The next topic will discuss
the meaning of these terms.
C reate the
L evel 2 P F M
Process Name
Operational
Definition
PROCESS INPUT
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS
1
2
Input Data
6
7
Requirements Data
Metric
Supplier (Name)
P erform
S IP OC
Controlled (C)
Internal
Process Input- Name (X) Noise (N)
External
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
10
Measurement Data
11
Measurement
System (How is it Frequency of Performance
Measured)
Measurement Level Data
Value Data
12
NV
or
NVA
Comments
Identify a ll X s
and Y s
Identify
c us tomer
requirements
Identify
s upplier
requirements
Later you will come back to this form and rank the importance of the inputs to the success of your
process and eventually you will have found the Critical Xs.
Controllable vs. Noise Inputs
For any process or process
step input, there are two
primary types of inputs:
Controllable - we can exert
influence over them
Uncontrollable - they
behave as they want to
within some reasonable
boundaries.
Procedural - A standardized
set of activities leading to
readiness of a step.
Compliance to GAAP
(Generally Accepted
Accounting Principals).
Screens in Place
P roc edural
Inputs
C ontrollable
Inputs
Oven Clean
Ingredients prepared
K ey P roc es s
Outputs
P roc es s
C orrec t Ing redients

R oom T emp
Mois ture C ontent
Ing redient Variation
P izza S ize
Nois e Inputs
Ing redient T ypes /Mixes
P roperly C ooked
Hot P izza >140 deg
Volume
E very input c an be either:

C ontrollable (C ) - Inputs can be adjus ted or controlled while the proces s is running (e.g., s peed,
feed rate, temperature, and pres s ure)
P roc edural (P ) - Inputs can be adjus ted or controlled while the proces s is running (e.g., s peed,
feed rate, temperature, and pres s ure)
Nois e (N) - T hings we dont think we can control, we are unaware of or s ee, too expens ive or too
difficult to control (e.g., ambient temperature, humidity, individual)
However, even with the

inputs we define as
controllable, we never exert
complete control. We can control an input within the limits of its natural variation, but it will vary on
its own based on its distributional shape - as you have previously learned. You choose to control
certain inputs because you either know or believe they have an effect on the outcome of the
process, it is inexpensive to do, so controlling it makes us feel better or there once was a
problem and the solution (right or wrong) was to exert control over some input.
111
Process Discovery
Controllable vs. Noise Inputs (cont.)
You choose to not control some inputs because you think you cannot control them, you either know
or believe they dont have much affect on the output, you think it is not cost justified or you just dont
know these inputs even exist. Yes, thats right, you dont know they are having an affect on the
output. For example, what effect does ambient noise or temperature have on your ability to be
attentive or productive, etc?
It is important to distinguish which category an input falls into. You know through Y=f(X), that if it is a
Critical X, by definition, that you must control it. Also if you believe that an input is or needs to be
controlled, then you have automatically implied there are requirements placed on it and that it must
be measured. You must always think and ask whether an input is or should be controlled or if it is
uncontrolled.
Exercise Supplier Requirements
112
Process Discovery
The Level 3 Process Flow Diagram
Pizza
Dough
No
Take Order
from Cashier
Place in
Oven
Add
Ingredients
Check
if Done
Observe
Frequently
Yes
Remove
from Oven
Start New
Pizza
Scrap
No
1
PROCESS STEP
PROCESS
STEP
OUTPUT
IDENTIFICATION
AND ANALYSIS
1
3
4
5 ANALYSIS
6
7
OUTPUT
IDENTIFICATION
AND
Pizza
Correct
Yes
Process Name
Process Name
Tape
Order on
Box
Place in
Box
10
11
12
Data7
Measurement
Data
Value Data
1 Output Data
3
4
5 Requirements
6
8
9
10
11
12
Customer (Name)
Metric
Output Data
Requirements
Data
Measurement Data
Value
Measurement
VA Data
Customer (Name)
Metric
System
(How is it Frequency of
or VA
Measurement
Internal External
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Measured)
NVA or
System (How is itMeasurement
Frequency of Performance Level Data
Internal External
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Measured)
Measurement
NVA
Step Name/Number
Step Name/Number
13
13
Comments
Comments
Put on
Delivery Rack
PROCESS STEP
PROCESS
STEP
INPUT
IDENTIFICATION
AND ANALYSIS
1
2
3
5
6
INPUT
IDENTIFICATION
AND4 ANALYSIS
Process Name
Process Name
7
8
9
10
11
12
Data
1
3
4
5Requirements
6 Data7
8
9 Measurement 10
11 Value Data
12
Metric
Measurement Measurement Data
VA
Input Data Supplier (Name)
Requirements
Data
Value Data
Controlled (C)
System
(How is it Frequency of Performance
or VA
Supplier (Name)
Metric
Measurement
Internal
External
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Process Input- Name (X) Noise
(N) (C)
Measured)
Data
NVA or
Controlled
System (How isMeasurement
it Frequency ofLevel
Performance
Internal
External
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Measured)
NVA
Input Data2
Step Name/Number
Step Name/Number
13
13
Comments
Comments
You have a decision at this point to continue with a complete characterization of the process you have
documented at a Level 2 in order to fully build the process management system or to narrow the effort
by focusing on those steps that are contributing to the problem you want solved.
In reality, usually just a few of the process steps are the root cause areas for any given higher level
process output problem. If your desire is the latter, there are some other Measure Phase actions and
tools you will use to narrow the number of potential Xs and subsequently the number of process steps.
To narrow the scope so it is relevant to your problem consider the following: Remember using the pizza
restaurant as our example for selecting a key process? They were having a problem with overall
delivery time and burnt pizzas. Which steps in this process would contribute to burnt pizzas and how
might a pizza which was burnt so badly it had to be scrapped and restarted effect delivery time? It would
most likely be the steps between place in oven to remove from oven, but it might also include add
ingredients because certain ingredients may burn more quickly than others. This is how, based on the
Problem Statement you have made, you would narrow the scope for doing a Level 3 PFM.
For your project, the priority will be to do your best to find the problematic steps associated with your
Problem Statement. We will teach you some new tools in a later lesson to aid you in doing this. You may
have to characterize a number of steps until you get more experience at narrowing the steps that cause
problems; this is to be expected. If you have the time you should characterize the whole process.
Each step you select as the causal steps in the process must be fully characterized, just as you have
previously done for the whole process. In essence you will do a mini SIPOC on each step of the
process as defined in the Level 2 Process Map. This can be done using a Level 3 Micro Process Map
and placing all the information on it or it can be consolidated onto an Excel spreadsheet format or a
combination of both. If all the data and information is put onto an actual Process Map, expect the map
to be rather large physically. Depending on the scope of the process, some people dedicate a wall
space for doing this; say a 12 to 14 foot long wall. An effective approach for this is to use a roll of
industrial
113
Process Discovery
The Level 3 Process Flow Diagram (Cont.)
grade brown package wrapping paper, which is generally 4 feet wide. Just roll out the length you want,
cut it, place this on the wall and then build your Level 3 Process Map by taping and writing various
elements onto the paper. The value of this approach is that you can take it off the wall, roll it up, take it
with you and then put it back on any wall; great for team efforts.
A Level 3 Process Map contains all of the process details needed to meet your objective: all of the flows,
set points, standard operating procedures (SOPs), inputs and outputs; their specifications and if they are
classified as being controllable or non-controllable (noise). The Level 3 PFM usually contains estimates
of defects per unit (DPU), yield and rolled throughput yield (RTY) and value/non-value add. If processing
cycle times and inventory levels (materials or work queues) are important, value stream parameters are
also included.
This can be a lot of detail to manage and appropriate tracking sheets are required. We have supplied
these sheets in a paper and Excel spreadsheet format for your use. The good news is the approach and
forms for the steps are essentially the same as the format for identifying supplier and customer
requirements at the process level. A spreadsheet is very convenient tool and the output from the
spreadsheet can then be fed directly into a C&E matrix and an FMEA (to be described later), also built
using spreadsheets.
You will find the work you have done up to this point in terms of a Level 1 and 2 Process Maps and the
SIPOC will be of use, both from knowledge of the process and actual data.
An important reminder of a previous lesson: You will recall when you were taught about project definition
where it was stated that you should only try to solve the performance of only one process output, at any
one time. Because of the amount of detail you can get into for just one Y, trying to optimize more than
one Y at a time can become overwhelming. The good news is that you will have laid all the ground work
to focus on a second and a third Y for a process by just focusing on one Y in your initial project.
Process Inputs (Xs) and Outputs (Ys)
You are now down at the
step level of the process,
this is what we call the
improvement view of a
process. Now you do
exactly the same thing
as you did for the overall
process, you list all of
the input and output
information for steps of
the process you have
selected for analysis and
characterization to solve
your problem. To help
you comprehend what
we are trying to
accomplish we have
provided you with
visualization for the
inputs and outputs of the
Pizza restaurant.
Process Name
PROCESS STEP
OUTPUT IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS
1
C reate a
L evel 3 P F M
Output Data
Customer (Name)
Internal
External
Metric
6
7
Requirements Data
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Measurement
System (How is it
Measured)
10
Measurement Data
Frequency of
Measurement
Step Name/Number
11
12
Value Data
VA
or
NVA
13
Comments
Add
P erformanc e
data
Identify
VA/NVA s teps
Process Name
PROCESS STEP
INPUT IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS
1
2
3
4
Input Data
Supplier (Name)
Controlled (C)
Internal External
Metric
6
7
Requirements Data
Metric
LSL
Target
USL
Step Name/Number
9
10
11
12
Measurement Data
Value Data
Measurement
VA
System (How is it Frequency of Performance
or
Measured)
NVA
13
Comments
114
Process Discovery
Process Inputs (Xs) and Outputs (Ys) (cont.)
Any process, even a pizza
C /N
Inputs (X s )
R equirements or S pecs .
P roces s
restaurant process can be
characterized. This
N/C 7, 12, 16
Size of Pizza
visualization shows many
N/C 12 meats, 2 veggies, 3 cheese
Toppings
N N/A
Name
of the inputs and outputs
N Within 10 miles
Address
Take Order
and their requirements. By
N Within area code
Phone
N 11 AM to 1 AM
Time
using the process and the
N 5 X 52
Day
N MM/DD,YY
Date
process step input and
output sheets, you get a
C All fields complete
Order
very detail picture about
C Per Spec Sheets
Ingredients
Make Pizza
S.O.P Per Rev 7.0
Recipe
how your process works.
C As per recipe chart 3-1 in Oz.
Amounts
Now you have enough data
to start making informed
C All fields complete
Order
C Ingredients per order
Raw Pizza
decisions about the
C 350F +/- 5F
Oven Temp
Cook Pizza
process performance. The
C 10 Min
Time
N 60 per hour max
Volume
next lesson pages will
describe how you
determine if a process task, activity or step is a value added step or not.
Ys
Order
Raw
Pizza
Cooked
Pizza
All fields
c omplete
S iz e
Weig ht
Ing redients
c orrec t
>140F
Ing redients
c orrec t
No burns
Identifying Waste
When we produce
A
products or services, we
NV
No
A
engage process-based
NV
No
activities to transform
Yes
physical materials, ideas
1
2
No
A
and information into
NV
No
2
3
something valued by
Yes
A
Yes
customers. Some
NV
Yes
C reate a
activities in the process
E
ac
h proc
es
s
ac
tivity c
an be tes
ted for
1
L evel 3
its value-add c ontribution
P
F
M
No
generate true value,
A
A s k the following two ques tions to
NV
others do not. The
3
identify non-value added ac tivity:
A dd
Is the form, fit or function of the
expenditure of resources,
P erformanc e
A
OK
data
work item chang ed as a res ult of
NV
capital and other
this activity?
Not
Is the cus tomer willing to pay for
OK
energies that do not
Identify
this activity?
A
VA /NVA
NV
generate value is
s teps
considered waste. Value
generation is any activity
that changes the form, fit or function of what we are working on in a way that the customer is willing to
pay for. The goal of testing for VA vs. NVA is to remove unnecessary activity (waste) from a process.
Writes
time on
scratch
pad
Call for an
Order
Calculate
price
Answer
phone
Asks cook
for time
estimate
Greetings
and
mention
specials
Inform
customer
of
price/time
Request
order from
customer
Order
still OK?
Writes on
scratch
pad
Gets
address &
phone #
Add to
Order
Rewrite
order
Asks for
more?
Confirm
order
Thanks
customer
& hangs
up
Writes
time on
scratch
pad
Another
call
waiting
New
order?
Completes
order from
from note
pad
Give order to
Cook
Verify
with
notes
Rewrite
Order
Hint: If an action starts with the two letters re its a good chance that its a form of waste, i.e.
rework, replace, review, etc.
Some non-value activities cannot be removed; i.e., data collection is required to understand and plan
production activity levels, data must be collected to comply with governmental regulations, etc. (even
though the data have no effect on the actual product or service)
On the process flow diagram we place a red X through the steps or we write NVA or VA by each step.
115
Process Discovery
Definition of X-Y Diagram
The X-Y Diagram is a great tool to
help us focus, again it is based on
team experience and Tribal
knowledge. At this point in the
project that is great although it
should be recognized that this is
NOT hard data. As you progress
through the methodology dont be
surprised if you find out through
data analysis that what the team
thought might be critical turns out
to be insignificant.
The great thing about the X-Y
Diagram is that it is sort of an
unbiased way to approach
definition around the process and
WILL give you focus.
T he X -Y diagram is:
A tool used to identify/collate potential X s a nd a ssess their
relative impact on multiple Y s (include a ll Y s that a re
customer focused)
Based on the teams c ollective opinions
C reated for e very project
Never c ompleted
Updated whenever a parameter is c hanged
T o s ummarize, the X -Y is a team-based prioritization tool for the
potential X s
WAR NING ! T his is not real data, this is organized
brainstorming!! A t the c onclusion of the project y ou may realiz e
that the things y ou thought were c ritical a re in fact not a s
important a s was believed.
The Vital Few
A S ix S igma B elt does n ot jus t dis cover which X s are important in

a proces s ( the vital few).
T he team c ons iders a ll pos s ible X s that c an c ontribute or
caus e the p roblem obs erved.
T he team us es 3 p rimary s ources of X identification:
P roces s Mapping
F is hbone Analys is
B as ic D ata Analys is G raphical and S tatis tical
A L is t of X s is es tablis hed a nd c ompiled.
T he team then prioritiz es which X s it will explore firs t, a nd
eliminates the obvious low impact X s from further
cons ideration.
T he X -Y D iagram is this P rioritiz ation T ool!
This is an important tool for the many reasons we have already stated. Use it to your benefit,
leverage the team and this will help you progress you through the methodology to accomplish your
ultimate project goal.
116
Process Discovery
The XY Diagram
This is the X-Y Diagram. You should have a copy of this template. If possible open it and get
familiar with it as we progress through this section.
Using the Classified Xs
B reakthrough requires d ealing primarily with c ontrollable X s

impacting the Y .
Us e the c ontrollable X s from the F is hbone analys is to include in the
X -Y D iagram.
T he goal is to is olate the vital few X s from the trivial many X s .
P rocedures and Nois e X s will be us ed in the F ME A at the e nd of
this module. H owever:
All procedures mus t be in total compliance.
T his may require s ome type of effectivenes s meas ure.
T his could reduce or eliminate s ome of the defects currently s ee n in
the proces s (allowing focus on controllable X s ).
Nois e type inputs increas e ris k of defects under c urrent

technology of operation and therefore:
Increas e R P N on the F ME A document from an input.
Help identify areas needing inves tment for a jus tified R O I.
*Risk Priority Number
117
Process Discovery
X-Y Diagram: Steps
L is t X s from F is hbone D iag ram in horiz ontal rows
Use your Fishbone Diagram as the source and type in the Inputs in this section, use common sense,
some of the info from the Fishbone may not justify going into the X-Y inputs.
Enter your primary metric

and any other secondary
metrics across into this
area. Weight these output
variables (Ys) on a scale
of 1-10 you may find that
some have the same
weight which is just fine. If,
at this time, additional
metrics come to the
surface, which is totally
common, you may realize
that you need to add
secondary metrics to your
project or even refine your
primary metric.
L ist Y s in c olumns (including P rimary a nd S econdary metrics).

Weight the Y s on a s cale of 1 -10 (10 - highest a nd 1 - lowest).
118
Process Discovery
X-Y Diagram: Steps (cont.)
For each X listed along the
left, rank its effect on each
corresponding metric based
on a scale of 0, 1, 3 or 9.
You can use any scale you
choose however we
recommend this on. If you
use a scale of 1 to 10 this
can cause uncertainty
within the teamis it a 6 or
a 7, whats the difference,
etc.?
The template we have

provided automatically
calculates and sorts the
ranking shown here.
F or e ac h X lis ted, rank its e ffec t o n e ac h m etric b as ed o n a s c ale o f 1 , 3 o r 9 .

9 = H ighest
3 = Marginal
1 = N one
R anking multiplies the rank o f e ac h X b y the W eig ht o f e ac h Metric .

The p roduc t o f that is a dded tog ether to b ec ome the R anking .
119
Process Discovery
Example
C lic k the D emo b utton to s ee a n e xample.
Shown here is a
basic example of a
completed X-Y
Diagram. You can
click Demo on
your template to
view this anytime.
Example
C lick the S ummary Works heet

YX Diagram Summary
Process: laminating
Date:
5/2/2006
time
pressure
clean room cleanliness
temperature
Input Variables
Description
Ranking Rank %
temperature
162 14.90%
human handling
159 14.63%
material properties
130 11.96%
washer
126 11.59%
pressure
120 11.04%
robot handling
120 11.04%
time
102
9.38%
clean room practices
90
8.28%
clean room cleanliness
78
7.18%
0.00%
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
material properties
Output Variables
Description
Weight
broken
10
unbonded area
9
smears
8
thickness
7
foreign material
6
0
0
0
0
0
Input Matrix Results
Output (Y's)
This is the summary

worksheet. If you click
on the Summary tab
you will see this output.
Take some time to
review the worksheet.
Input Summary
Input (X's)
120
Process Discovery
Fishbone Diagram Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : C reate an X-Y diag ram

using the information from the Fishbone
analysis.
1 . Using the Fishbone Dia g ra m crea ted ea rlier, crea te
a n X-Y dia g ra m.
2 . Present results to your mentor.
Definition of FMEA
Failure Modes Effect
Analysis or FMEA
[*usually pronounced
as F-M-E-A (individual
letters) or FEMA** (as
a word)] is a structured
approach to: read
bullets. FMEA at this
point is developed with
tribal knowledge with a
cross-functional team.
Later using process
data the FMEA can be
updated and better
estimates of detection
and occurrence can be
obtained. The FMEA is
not a tool to eliminate
Xs but rather control
the Xs. It is only a
tool to identify potential
Xs and prioritize the
order in which the Xs
should be evaluated.
Failure Modes Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a structured approach to:

Predict failures and prevent their occurrence in manufacturing and
other functional areas which generate defects.
Identify the ways in which a process can fail to meet critical
customer requirements (Y).
Estimate the Severity, Occurrence and Detection (SOD) of defects
Evaluate the current Control Plan for preventing these failures
from occurring and escaping to the customer.
Prioritize the actions that should be taken to improve and control
the process using a Risk Priority Number (RPN).
Give me an F ,
give me an M !
121
Process Discovery
History of FMEA
H is to ry o f FM EA :
First used in the 1 9 6 0 s in the A erospace industry during the
A pollo missions
In 1 9 7 4 the N avy developed MIL-S TD-1 6 2 9 reg arding the use of
FMEA
In the late 1 9 7 0 s, automotive applications driven by liability
costs, beg an to incorporate FMEA into the manag ement of their
processes
A utomotive Industry A ction G roup (A IA G ) now maintains the
FMEA standard for both Desig n and Process FMEA s
The edge of your seat info on the history of the FMEA! Im sure you will all be sharing this
with everyone tonight at the dinner table!
Types of FMEAs
There are many
different types of
FMEAs. The basic
premise is the
same.
System FMEA: Performed on a product or service product at the early concept/design

level when various modules all tie together. All the module level FMEA s tie together
to form a system. As you go lower into a system more failure modes are considered.
Example: Electrical system of a car, consists of the following modules: battery,
wiring harness, lighting control module and alternator/regulator.
System FMEA focuses on potential failure modes associated with the modules
of a system caused by design
Design DFMEA: Performed early in the design phase to analyze product fail modes
before they are released to production. The purpose is to analyze how fail modes
affect the system and minimize them. The severity rating of a fail mode MUST be
carried into the Process PFMEA.
Process PFMEA: Performed in the early quality planning phase of manufacturing to
analyze fail modes in manufacturing and transactional processes that may escape to
the customer. The failure modes and the potential sources of defects are rated and
corrective action taken based on a Pareto analysis ranking.
Equipment FMEA: used to analyze failure modes in the equipment used in a process to
detect or make the part.
Example: Test Equipment fail modes to detect open and short circuits.
122
Process Discovery
Purpose of FMEA
F ME A s :
Improve the quality, reliability, and s afety of products .
Increas e cus tomer s atis faction.
R educe product development time and cos t.
D ocument and track actions taken to reduce ris k and
improve the proces s .
F ocus on continuous problem prevention not problem
s olving.
Who Creates FMEAs and When?

FMEAs are a team tool
like most in this phase of
the methodology. They are
applicable is most every
project, manufacturing or
service based.
For all intensive purposes
they will be used in
conjunction with your
problem solving project to
characterize and measure
process variables. In some
cases the FMEA will
manifest itself as a
management tool when the
project concludes and in
some cases it will not be
appropriate to be used in
that nature.
Who
When
T he focused team working

on a breakthrough project.
ANY ONE who had or has a

role in defining, e xecuting,
or c hanging the process.
T his includes:
Associates
Technical E xperts
S upervisors
Managers
E tc.
P rocess F ME As s hould be s tarted:

At the c onceptual design phase.
P rocess F ME As s hould be updated:
When a n e xisting design or p rocess
is being c hanged.
When c arry-over designs or
processes will be used in new
applications a nd e nvironments.
When a p roblem s olving s tudy is
completed a nd needs to be
documented.
S ystem F ME As s hould be c reated a fter
system functions a re defined but before
specific hardware is s elected.
Design F ME As s hould be c reated when
new s ystems, products a nd processes a re
being designed.
123
Process Discovery
Why Create an FMEA?
As a means to manage
R IS K !!!
FMEAs help you manage

RISK by classifying your
process inputs and monitoring
their effects. This is extremely
important during the course of
your project work.
We want to a void c ausing failures in the P rocess as well a s the

P rimary & S econdary Metrics .
The FMEA
This is an FMEA. We have provided a template for you to use.
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C Potential
E l Causes of
V a Failure
s
(X's)
s
O Current D R Recommen Responsibl Taken S O D R

C Process E P d Actions e Person & Action E C E P
C Controls T N
Target
s
V C T N
Date
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
124
Process Discovery
FMEA Components#
# Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C
E l
V a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen
E P d Actions
T N
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
The first column

highlighted here is the
Process Step
Number.
The first c olumn is the P rocess S tep N umber.

1
2
3
4
5
E tc.
FMEA ComponentsProcess Step

The second column is the Name of the Process Step. The FMEA should sequentially follow the
steps documented in your Process Map.
Phone
Dial Number
Listen for Ring
Say Hello
Introduce Yourself
Etc.
#
Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D R
E P
T N
Recommen
d Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
Enter the Name of the Process Step here. The FMEA should
sequentially follow the steps documented in your Process Map.
Phone
Dial Number
Listen for Ring
Say Hello
Introduce Yourself
Etc.
125
Process Discovery
FMEA ComponentsPotential Failure Modes
The third column to the mode in which the process could potentially fail. These are the defects
caused by a C, P or N factor that could occur in the Process.
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen
E P d Actions
T N
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
T his refers to the mode in which the process c ould potentially fail.
T hese a re the defects c aused by a C ,P or N factor that c ould occ ur
in the P rocess.
T his information is obtained from Historical D efect D ata.
F Y I..A failure mode is a fancy name for a defect.
FMEA ComponentsPotential Failure Effects

The fourth
column
highlighted
here is simply
the effect of
realizing the
potential
failure mode
on the overall
process and
is focused on
the output of
each step.
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
This
information is
usually
obtained from
your Process
Map.
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C Potential
E l Causes of
V a Failure
s
(X's)
s
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen Responsibl
E P d Actions e Person &
T N
Target
Date
Taken S O D R
Action E C E P
s
V C T N
This is s imply the e ffect of realizing the potential failure

mode on the overall process. It focuses on the outputs
of e ach s tep.
This information c an be obtained in the P rocess Map.
126
Process Discovery
FMEA ComponentsSeverity (SEV
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen
E P d Actions
T N
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
T his ranking s hould be developed based on the teams k nowledge of

the process in c onjunction with the predetermined scale.
T he measure of S everity is a financial measure of the impact to the
business of realizing a failure in the output.
The fifth column highlighted here is the ranking that is developed based on the teams knowledge of the
process in conjunction with the predetermined scale.
Severity is a financial measure of the impact to the business of a failure in the output.
Ranking Severity
The Automotive Industry Action Group, a consortium of the Big Three: Ford, GM and Chrysler
developed this criteria. If you dont like it develop one that fits your organization; just make sure
its standardized so everyone uses the same scale.
Effect
Hazardous:
Without
Warning
Hazardous:
With Warning
Very High
High
Moderate
Low
Very Low
Minor
Very Minor
None
Criteria: Severity of Effect Defined
Ranking
May endanger the operator. Failure mode affects safe vehicle operation and/or
involves non-compliance with government regulation. Failure will occur WITHOUT
warning.
May endanger the operator. Failure mode affects safe vehicle operation and/or
involves non-compliance with government regulation. Failure will occur WITH
warning.
Major disruption to the production line. 100% of the product may have to be scrapped.
Vehicle/item inoperable, loss of primary function. Customers will be very dissatisfied.
10
Minor disruption to the production line. The product may have to be sorted and a portion
(less than 100%) scrapped. Vehicle operable, but at a reduced level of
performance. Customers will be dissatisfied.
Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) may have to be
scrapped (no sorting). Vehicle/item operable, but some comfort/convenience
item(s) inoperable. Customers will experience discomfort.
Minor disruption to the production line. 100% of product may have to be re-worked.
Vehicle/item operable, but some comfort/convenience item(s) operable at a
reduced level of performance. Customers will experience some dissatisfaction.
Minor disruption to the production line. The product may have to be sorted and a
portion (less than 100%) re-worked. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item does not
conform. Most customers will notice the defect.
Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) of the product may
have to be re-worked online but out-of-station. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item
does not conform. Average customers will notice the defect.
Minor disruption to the production line. A portion (less than 100%) of the product may
have to be re-worked online but in-station. Fit/finish/squeak/rattle item does
not conform. Discriminating customers will notice the defect.
No effect.
9
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
* Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Reference Manual, 2002. Pgs 29-45. Chrysler
Corporation, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation.
127
Process Discovery
Applying Severity Ratings to Your Process
T he g uidelines pres ented on the previous s lide were developed fo r

the auto indus try.
T his was included only as a guideline....ac tual res ults may vary for
your project.
Y our s everity may be linked to impact on the bus ines s or impact on
the next cus tomer, etc.
Y o u will n eed to defin e yo u r o wn c riteria
an d be c o n s is tent th ro u gh o u t y o u r F ME A
L ets brains torm how we might define the following S E V E R IT Y
levels in our own projec ts :
1, 5, 10
The actual definitions of the severity are not so important as the fact that the team remains
consistent in its use of the definitions. The next slide shows a sample of transactional severities.
Sample Transactional Severities
Effect
Criteria: Impact of Effect Defined
Ranking
Critical Business May endanger companys ability to do business. Failure mode affects process
Unit-wide
operation and / or involves noncompliance with government regulation.
Critical Loss Customer
Specific
High
Moderate
Low
Minor
None
10
May endanger relationship with customer. Failure mode affects product delivered
and/or customer relationship due to process failure and/or noncompliance with
government regulation.
Major disruption to process/production down situation. Results in near 100%

rework or an inability to process. Customer very dissatisfied.
Moderate disruption to process. Results in some rework or an inability to process.

Process is operable, but some work arounds are required. Customers experience
dissatisfaction.
Minor disruption to process. Process can be completed with workarounds or
rework at the back end. Results in reduced level of performance. Defect is
noticed and commented upon by customers.
Minor disruption to process. Process can be completed with workarounds or
rework at the back end. Results in reduced level of performance. Defect noticed
internally, but not externally.
No effect.
2
1
Shown here is an example for severity guidelines developed for a financial services company.
128
Process Discovery
FMEA ComponentsClassification Class
#
Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D
E
T
R
P
N
Recommen
d Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S
E
V
O
C
C
D
E
T
R
P
N
C las s s hould c ateg oriz e eac h s tep as a

C ontrollable (C )
P rocedural (P )
Nois e (N)
T his information can be obtained in the P roc es s Map.
C ontrollable A fac tor that c an be dialed into a s pec ific s etting/value. F or example T emperature or
F low.
P roc edures A s tandardiz ed s et of ac tivities leading to readines s of a s tep. F or example S afety
C omplianc e, L oc k -O ut T ag -O ut.
Nois e - A fac tor that can not be dialed in to a s pec ific s etting /value. F or example rain in a mine.
Recall the classifications of Procedural, Controllable and Noise developed when constructing your
Process Map and Fishbone Diagram? Use those classifications from the Fishbone in the Class
column, highlighted here, in the FMEA.
Potential Causes of Failure (Xs)
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C Potential
E l Causes of
V a Failure
s
(X's)
s
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen Responsibl
E P d Actions e Person &
T N
Target
Date
Taken S O D R
Action E C E P
s
V C T N
Potential C auses of the F ailure refers to how the failure c ould occur.
This information s hould be obtained from the F ishbone D iagram.
The column Potential Causes of the Failure, highlighted here, refers to how the failure could
occur.
This should also be obtained from the Fishbone Diagram.
129
Process Discovery
FMEA ComponentsOccurrence OCC
Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D R
E P
T N
Recommen
d Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
The column Occurrence highlighted here, refers to how frequently the specified failure is
projected to occur. This information should be obtained from Capability Studies or Historical Defect
Data in conjunction with the predetermined scale.
Ranking Occurrence
Probability of Failure
Very High: Failure is almost
inevitable.
High: Generally associated with
processes similar to previous
processes that have often failed.
Moderate: Generally associated
with processes similar to previous
processes that have experienced
occasional failures but not in major
proportions.
Low: Isolated failures associated
with similar processes.
Very Low: Only isolated failures
associated with almost identical
processes.
Remote: Failure is unlikely. No
failures ever associated with almost
identical processes.
Possible Failure Rates
Cpk
Ranking
1 in 2
< 0.33
10
1 in 3
0.33
1 in 8
0.51
1 in 20
0.67
1 in 80
0.83
1 in 400
1.00
1 in 2,000
1.17
1 in 15,000
1.33
1 in 150,000
1.5
1 in 1,500,000
1.67
Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Reference Manual, 2002. Pg. 35.. Chrysler Corporation, Ford
Motor Company, General Motors Corporation.
developed these Occurrence rankings.
130
Process Discovery
FMEA ComponentsCurrent Process Controls
#
Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D R
E P
T N
Recommen
d Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
C urrent P roces s C ontrols refers to the three types of controls that are
in place to prevent a failure in with the X s . T he 3 types of controls are:
S P C (S tatis tical P roces s C ontrol)
P oke-Y oke (Mis take P roofing)
D etection after F ailure
A s k yours elf how do we c ontrol this defec t?

The column Current Process Controls highlighted here refers to the three types of controls that are
in place to prevent a failures.
FMEA ComponentsDetection (DET)
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C
E l
V a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen
E P d Actions
T N
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
Detection is a n a ssessment of the probability that the proposed type

of c ontrol will detect a s ubsequent failure mode.
This information s hould be obtained from y our Measurement S ystem
Analysis S tudies a nd the P rocess Map. A rating s hould be a ssign in
conjunction with the predetermined scale.
131
Process Discovery
Ranking Detection
Criteria: The likelihood that the existence of a defect will
be detected by the test content before the product
advances to the next or subsequent process
Detection
Ranking
Almost Impossible
Test content must detect < 80% of failures
10
Very Remote
Test content must detect 80% of failures
Remote
Test content must detect 82.5% of failures
Very Low
Low
Moderate
Moderately High
High
Very High
Almost Certain
Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), AIAG Reference Manual, 2002 Pg. 35.. Chrysler Corporation,
Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation.
developed these Detection criteria.
Risk Priority Number RPN

The The Risk Priority
Number highlighted here
is a value that will be used
to rank order the concerns
from the process.
We provided you with a
template which will
automatically calculate this
for you based on your
inputs for Severity,
Occurrence and Detection.
# Process
Functio
n
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R
E P
T N
Recomme
nd Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
The R isk P riority N umber is a v alue that will be used to rank order
the c oncerns from the process.
The R P N is the product of, S everity, O ccurrence a nd D etect a bility
as represented here
R P N = (S E V)*(OC C )*(DE T)
132
Process Discovery
FEMA ComponentsActions
#
Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S
E
V
C
l
a
s
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure
(X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D
E
T
R
P
N
Recommen
d Actions
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O
E C
V C
D
E
T
R
P
N
R ecommended Actions refers to the activity for the prevention of a

defect.
R es pons ible P ers on & D ate refers to the name of the group or pers on
res pons ible for completing the activity and when they will complete it.
T aken Action refers to the action and effective date after it has been
completed.
The columns highlighted here are a type of post FMEA. Remember to update the FMEA throughout
your project, this is what we call a Living Document as it changes throughout your project.
FMEA ComponentsAdjust RPN
# Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure
Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure
Effects
(Y's)
S C Potential
E l Causes of
V a
Failure
s
(X's)
s
O Current
C Process
C Controls
D R Recommen
E P d Actions
T N
Responsibl
e Person &
Target
Date
Taken
Action
s
S O D R
E C E P
V C T N
Once the R ecommended A ctions, R esponsible P erson & D ate,

Taken A ction have been c ompleted the S everity, O ccurrence a nd
Detection s hould be a djusted. T his will result in a new R PN rating.
The columns highlighted here are the adjusted levels based on the actions you have taken within the
process.
133
Process Discovery
FMEA Exercise
E x erc is e objec tive: As s emble your team in order

to create a F ME A us ing the information
generated from the P roces s Map, F is hbone
D iagram and X -Y D iagram.
1. B e prepared to pres ent res ults to your mentor.
OKTeam,
T eam,
l ets
OK
lets
g et that
F ME A !
get
that FMEA!!
134
Process Discovery
Create a high-level Process Map
Create a Fishbone Diagram
Create an X-Y Diagram
Create an FMEA
Describe the purpose of each tool and when it should be used
You have now completed Measure Phase Process Discovery.
Notes
135
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
Six Sigma Statistics
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with Six Sigma Statistics.
136

Overview
In this module you will learn how your
processes speak to you in the form of
data. If you are to understand the
behaviors of your processes, then you
must learn to communicate with the
process in the language of data.
The field of statistics provides the tools
and techniques to act on data, to turn
data into information and knowledge
which you will then use to make
decisions and to manage your
processes.
The statistical tools and methods that
you will need to understand and
optimize your processes are not
difficult. Use of Excel spreadsheets or
specific statistical analytical software
has made this a relatively easy task.
In this module you will learn basic, yet powerful analytical approaches and tools to increase your
ability to solve problems and manage process behavior.
Purpose of Basic Statistics
Basic Statistics purpose:
Provide a numerical summary of the data being analyzed.
Data (n)
Factual information organized for analysis.
Numerical or other information represented in a form suitable for processing by

computer
Values from scientific experiments.
Provide the basis for making inferences about the future.
Provide the foundation for assessing process capability.
Provide a common language to be used throughout an organization to

describe processes.
Relax.it won t
be that bad!!
Statistics is the basic language of Six Sigma. A solid understanding of Basic Statistics is the
foundation upon which many of the subsequent tools will be based.
Having an understanding of Basic Statistics can be quite valuable. Statistics however, like anything,
can be taken to the extreme.
137

Purpose of Basic Statistics (Cont.)
But it is not the need or the intent of this course to do that, nor is it the intent of Six Sigma. It can
be stated that Six Sigma does not make people into statisticians, rather it makes people into
excellent problem solvers by using appropriate statistical techniques.
Data is like crude oil that comes out of the ground. Crude oil is not of much good use. However if
the crude oil is refined many useful products occur; such as medicines, fuel, food products,
lubricants, etc. In a similar sense statistics can refine data into usable products to aid in
decision making, to be able to see and understand what is happening, etc
Statistics is broadly used by just about everyone today. Sometimes we just dont realize it.
Things as simple as using graphs to better understand something is a form of statistics, as are
the many opinion and political polls used today. With easy to use software tools to reduce the
difficulty and time to do statistical analyses, knowledge of statistics is becoming a common
capability amongst people.
An understanding of Basic Statistics is also one of the differentiating features of Six Sigma and it
would not be possible without the use of computers and programs like MINITAB. It has been
observed that the laptop is one of the primary reasons that Six Sigma has become both popular
and effective.
Statistical Notation Cheat Sheet
Summation
An individual value, an observation
The standard deviation of sample data
A particular (1st) individual value
The standard deviation of population data
For each, all, individual values
The variance of sample data
The mean, average of sample data
The variance of population data
The grand mean, grand average
The range of data

The mean of population data
The average range of data
Multi-purpose notation, i.e. # of subgroups, #
of classes
A proportion of sample data

A proportion of population data
The absolute value of some term

Greater than, less than
Greater than or equal to, less than or equal to
Sample size
Population size
Use this as a cheat sheet, dont bother memorizing all of this. Actually most of the notation in Greek
is for population data.
138

Parameters vs. Statistics
P opulation: A ll the items that have the property of interes t under s tudy.
F rame: A n identifiable s ubs et of the population.
S ample: A s ignificantly s maller s ubs et of the population us ed to make an inference.
Population
Sample
Sample
Sample
P opulation P arameters :
S ample S tatis tic s :
A rithmetic des criptions of a population

, , P , 2 , N
A rithmetic des criptions of a

s ample
X -bar , s , p, s 2 , n
The purpose of sampling is:

To get a sufficiently accurate inference for considerably less time, money, and other resources,
and also to provide a basis for statistical inference; if sampling is done well, and sufficiently, then
the inference is that what we see in the sample is representative of the population
A population parameter is a numerical value that summarizes the data for an entire population, a
sample has a corresponding numerical value called a statistic.
The population is a collection of all the individual data of interest. It must be defined carefully,
such as all the trades completed in 2001. If for some reason there are unique subsets of trades it
may be appropriate to define those as a unique population, such as, all sub custodial market
trades completed in 2001 or emerging market trades.
Sampling frames are complete lists and should be identical to a population with every element
listed only once. It sounds very similar to population and it is. The difference is how it is used.
A sampling frame, such as the list of registered voters, could be used to represent the population
of adult general public. Maybe there are reasons why this wouldnt be a good sampling frame.
Perhaps a sampling frame of licensed drivers would be a better frame to represent the general
public.
The sampling frame is the source for a sample to be drawn.
It is important to recognize the difference between a sample and a population because we
typically are dealing with a sample of the what the potential population could be in order to make
an inference. The formulas for describing samples and populations are slightly different. In most
cases we will be dealing with the formulas for samples.
139

Types of Data
A ttrib u te D ata (Q u alitative)
Is always binary, there are only two pos s ible values (0, 1)
Y es , No
G o, No go
P as s /F ail
Variab le D ata (Q u an titative)
D is crete (C ount) D ata

C an be categ oriz ed in a clas s ification and is bas ed on counts .
Number of defects
Number of defective units
Number of cus tomer returns
C ontinuous D ata
C an be meas ured on a continuum, it has d ecimal s ubdivis ions that are
meaningful
T ime, P res s ure, C onveyor S peed, Material feed rate
Money
P res s ure
C onveyor S peed
Material feed rate
The nature of data is important to understand. Based on the type of data you will have the option to
utilize different analyses.
Data, or numbers, are usually abundant and available to virtually everyone in the organization.
Using data to measure, analyze, improve and control processes forms the foundation of the Six
Sigma methodology. Data turned into information, then transformed into knowledge, lowers the risks
of decision. Your goal is to make more decisions based on data versus the typical practices of I
think, I feel and In my opinion.
One of your first steps in refining data into information is to recognize what the type of data it is that
you are using. There are two primary types of data, they are Attribute and Variable Data.
Attribute Data is also called qualitative data. Attribute Data is the lowest level of data. It is purely
binary in nature. Good or bad, yes or no type data. No analysis can be performed on Attribute Data.
Attribute Data must be converted to a form of Variable Data called Discrete Data in order to be
counted or be useful.
Discrete Data is information that can be categorized into a classification. Discrete Data is based on
counts. It is typically things counted in whole numbers. Discrete Data is data that can't be broken
down into a smaller unit to add additional meaning. Only a finite number of values is possible and
the values cannot be subdivided meaningfully. For example, there is no such thing as a half of
defect or a half of a system lockup.
Continuous Data is information that can be measured on a continuum or scale. Continuous Data,
also called quantitative data can have almost any numeric value and can be meaningfully
subdivided into finer and finer increments, depending upon the precision of the measurement
system. Decimal sub-divisions are meaningful with Continuous Data. As opposed to Attribute Data
like good or bad, off or on, etc., Continuous Data can be recorded at many different points (length,
size, width, time, temperature, cost, etc.). For example 2.543 inches is a meaningful number,
whereas 2.543 defects does not make sense.
Later in the course we will study many different statistical tests but it is first important to understand
what kind of data you have.
140

Discrete Variables
Shown here are additional Discrete Variables. Can you think of others within your business?
Continuous Variables
C ontinuous Variable
P os s ible Values for the Variable
T he length of pris on time s erved for individuals

convicted of firs t degree murder
A ll the real numbers between a and b, where a is

the s malles t amount of time s erved and b is the
larges t.
T he hous ehold income for hous eholds with

incomes les s than or equal to $30,000
A ll the real numbers between a and $30,000,

where a is the s malles t hous ehold income in the
population
T he blood glucos e reading for thos e individuals

having glucos e readings equal to or greater than
200
A ll real numbers between 200 and b, where b is

the larges t glucos e reading in all s uch individuals
Shown here are additional Continuous Variables. Can you think of others within your business?
141

Definitions of Scaled Data
Understanding the nature of data and how to represent it

can affect the types of statistical tests possible.
Nominal Scale data consists of names, labels, or categories. Cannot be

arranged in an ordering scheme. No arithmetic operations are performed
for nominal data.
Ordinal Scale data is arranged in some order, but differences between

data values either cannot be determined or are meaningless.
Interval Scale data can be arranged in some order and for which
differences in data values are meaningful. The data can be arranged in an
ordering scheme and differences can be interpreted.
Ratio Scale data that can be ranked and for which all arithmetic
operations including division can be performed. (division by zero is of
course excluded) Ratio level data has an absolute zero and a value of
zero indicates a complete absence of the characteristic of interest.
Shown here are the four types of scales. It is important to understand these scales as they will
dictate the type of statistical analysis that can be performed on your data.
Nominal Scale
Listed are some
examples of
Nominal Data.
The only analysis
is whether they
are different or
not.
Qualitative Variable
Possible nominal level data values for

the variable
Blood Types
A, B, AB, O
State of Residence
Alabama, , Wyoming
Country of Birth
United States, China, other
Time to weigh in!!

142

Ordinal Scale
These are examples of
Ordinal Data.
Qualitative Variable
P os s ible O rdinal level data

values
Automobile S iz es
S ubcompact, compact,
intermediate, full s iz e, luxury
P roduct rating
P oor, good, excellent
B as eball team clas s ification
C las s A, C las s AA, C las s AAA,

Major L eague
Interval Scale
Interval Variable
IQ s cores of s tudents in
B lackB elt T raining
P os s ible S c ores
100
(the difference between s cores
is meas urable and has
meaning but a difference of 20
points between 100 and 120
does not indicate that one
s tudent is 1.2 times more
intelligent )
These are examples of Interval Data.
143

Ratio Scale
R atio V ariable
P os s ible S c ores
G rams of fat c onsumed per a dult in the

United S tates
Shown here is an
example of Ratio Data.
0
(If person A c onsumes 2 5 g rams of fat a nd
person B c onsumes 5 0 g rams, we c an s ay
that person B c onsumes twice a s much fat
as person A . If a person C c onsumes z ero
grams of fat per day, we c an s ay there is a
complete a bsence of fat c onsumed on that
day. N ote that a ratio is interpretable a nd
an a bsolute z ero e xists.)
Converting Attribute Data to Continuous Data

Continuous Data
provides us more
opportunity for
statistical analyses.
Attribute Data can often
be converted to
Continuous by
converting it to a rate.
Continuous Data is always more desirable

In many cases Attribute Data can be converted to
Continuous
Which is more useful?
15 scratches or Total scratch length of 9.25
22 foreign materials or 2.5 fm/square inch
200 defects or 25 defects/hour
144

Descriptive Statistics
We will review the
Descriptive Statistics shown
here which are the most
commonly used.
1) For each of the measures
of location, how alike or
different are they?
2) For each measure of
variation, how alike or
different are they?
Meas ures of L oc ation (c entral tendenc y)

Mean
Median
Mode
Meas ures of Variation (dis pers ion)
R ange
Interquartile R ange
S tandard deviation
V ariance
3) What do these similarities

or differences tell us?
We are going to use
the worksheet shown
here to create graphs
and statistics. Open
the workbook
Measure Data
Sets.xls and select the
Basic Statistics
worksheet.
Change the Start Point
and the Bin Width as
shown and click Update
Chart. Typically one
would use the default
values but these
changes produce a
cleaner histogram.
145

Measures of Location
Mean are the most common measure of location. A Mean, implies that you are talking about the
population or inferring something about the population. Conversely, average, implies something
about sample data.
Although the
symbol is
different,
there is no
mathematical
difference
between the
Mean of a
sample and
Mean of a
population.
To produce chart, SigmaXL>Graphical Tools>Basic Histogram, Select Data, as Numeric Data

Variable (Y). Set Start Point to 4.97 and Bin width to 0.01 then click update chart. Please select
Descriptive Statistics. After clicking OK, the X axis should be modified to show 2 decimal places.
Note, that Descriptive Statistics are also available in SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Descriptive
Statistics, and SigmaXL>Graphical Tools>Histograms & Descriptive Statistics.
The physical center
of a data set is the
Median and
unaffected by large
data values. This
is why people use
Median when
discussing average
salary for an
American worker,
people like Bill
Gates and Warren
Buffet skew the
average number.
146

Measures of Location (cont.)
The Trimmed Mean (highlighted above) is less susceptible to the effects of extreme scores.
SigmaXL does not include Trimmed Mean, but Excels native function can be used as shown
above. We will explain each part of this formula next.
147

Measures of Location (cont.)
It is possible to have multiple Modes. When this happens its called Bi-modal Distributions. Here
we only have one; Mode = 5.
148

Measures of Variation
A range is typically used for small data sets which is completely efficient in estimating variation for
a sample of 2. As your data increases the Standard Deviation is a more appropriate measure of
variation.
The Standard Deviation for a sample and population can be equated with short and long-term
variation. Usually a sample is taken over a short period of time making it free from the types
of variation that can accumulate over time so be aware. We will explore this further at a later
point in the methodology.
149

Measures of Variation (cont.)
The Variance is the square of the Standard Deviation. It is common in statistical tests where it is
necessary to add up sources of variation to estimate the total. Standard Deviations cannot be
added, variances can.
Normal Distribution
The Normal Distribution is the most recognized distribution in
statistics.
What are the characteristics of a Normal Distribution?

Only random error is present
Process free of assignable cause
Process free of drifts and shifts
So what is present when the data is Non-normal?
We can begin to discuss the Normal Curve and its properties once we understand the basic
concepts of central tendency and dispersion.
As we begin to assess our distributions know that sometimes its actually more difficult to determine
what is effecting a process if it is Normally Distributed. When we have a Non-normal Distribution
there is usually special or more obvious causes of variation that can be readily apparent upon
process investigation.
150

The Normal Curve
The Normal Distribution
is the most commonly
used and abused
distribution in statistics
and serves as the
foundation of many
statistical tools which
will be taught later in the
methodology.
Normal Distribution
The shape of the
Normal
Distribution is a
function of 2
parameters, (the
Mean and the
Standard
Deviation).
We will convert the
Normal
Distribution to the
standard Normal in
order to compare
various Normal
Distributions and
to estimate tail
area proportions.
By normalizing the Normal Distribution this converts the raw scores into standard Z-scores with a
Mean of 0 and Standard Deviation of 1, this practice allows us to use the Z-table.
151

Normal Distribution (cont.)
The area under the curve between any two points represents the proportion of the distribution. The
concept of determining the proportion between 2 points under the standard Normal curve is a critical
component to estimating Process Capability and will be covered in detail in that module.
Empirical Rule
The Empirical
rule allows us to
predict or more
appropriately
make an
estimate of how
our process is
performing. You
will gain a great
deal of
understanding
within the
Process
Capability
module. Notice
the difference
between +/- 1
SD and +/- 6 SD.
152

The Empirical Rule (cont.)
No matter what the s hape of your dis tribution is , a s you travel 3 S tandard
D eviations from the Mean, the probability of occurrence beyond that point
begins to c onverge to a very low number.
Why Assess Normality?

There is no
good and bad. It
is not always
better to have
Normal data,
look at it in
respect to the
intent of your
project. Again,
there is much
informational
content in nonNormal
Distributions, for
this reason it is
useful to know
how Normal our
data are.
Go back to your project, what do you want to do with your distribution, Normal or Non-normal.
Many distributions simply by nature can NOT be Normal. Assume that your dealing with a time
metric, how do you get negative time, without having a flux capacitor as in the movie Back to the
Future. If your metric is, by nature bound to some setting.
153

Tools for Assessing Normality
The Anderson
Darling test yields a
statistical
assessment (called
a goodness-of-fit
test) of Normality
and the SigmaXL
version of the
Normal Probability
test produces a
graph to visually
demonstrate just
how good that fit is.
Watch that curve!!
Goodness-of-Fit
Anderson-Darling test assesses how closely actual frequency at a given value corresponds to the
theoretical frequency for a Normal Distribution with the same Mean and Standard Deviation.
154

The Normal Probability Plot
Open the
worksheet tab
Amount.
The graph
shows the
probability
density of your
data plotted
against the
expected density
of a Normal
curve. Notice
that the y-axis
(probability)
does not
increase linearly.
Normal data will
lie on a straight
line (the black
line) in this
analysis. The
graph shows you which values tend to deviate from the Normal Curve.
Open the worksheet tab Descriptive Statistics.

Using SigmaXLs Histograms and Descriptive Statistics tool, select Anderson Darling and click
OK.
155

Anderson-Darling Caveat
If the Data Are Not Normal, Dont Panic!

Once again, Nonnormal Data is NOT a
bad thing, depending
on the type of process /
metrics you are working
with. Sometimes it can
even be exciting to
have Non-normal Data
because in some ways
it represents
opportunities for
improvements.
Dont touch that button!!
156

Normality Exercise
Answers:
1) Is Distribution A Normal? Answer > No
2) Is Distribution B Normal? Answer > No
Isolating Special Causes from Common Causes
Dont get too worried
about killing all variation,
get the biggest bang for
your buck and start
making improvements by
following the
methodology. Many
companies today can
realize BIG gains and
reductions in variation by
simply measuring,
describing the
performance and then
making common sense
adjustments within the
processrecall the
ground fruit?
S pec ial C aus e: Variation is caus ed by known factors that res ult in
a non-random dis tribution of output. Als o referred to as As s ignable
C aus e.
C ommon C aus e: Variation caus ed by unknown factors res ulting in
a s teady but random dis tribution of output around the average of
the data. It is the variation left over after s pecial caus e variation has
been removed and typically (not always ) follows a normal
dis tribution.
If we know that the bas ic s tructure of the data s hould follow a
normal dis tribution, but plots from our data s hows otherwis e; we
know the data contain s pecial caus es .
S pec ial C aus es = O pportunity
Think about your data in

terms of what it should
look like, then compare it to what it does look like. See some deviation, maybe some Special
Causes at work?
157

Introduction to Graphing
Passive data
collection means
dont mess with the
process! We are
gathering data and
looking for patterns
in a graphical tool. If
the data is
questionable, so is
the graph we create
from it. For now
utilize the data
available, we will
learn a tool called
Measurement
System Analysis later
in this phase.
The purpose of Graphing is to:
Identify potential relationships between variables.

Identify risk in meeting the critical needs of the Customer,
Business and People.
Provide insight into the nature of the X s which may or may
not control Y.
Show the results of passive data collection.
In this section we will cover

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Box Plots
Scatter Plots
Dot Plots
Time Series Plots
Histograms
Data Sources
Data
demographics
will come out of
the basic
Measure Phase
tools such as
Process Maps,
X-Y Diagrams,
FMEAs and
Fishbones. Put
your focus on
the top Xs from
X-Y Diagram to
focus your
activities.
Data sources are suggested by many of the tools that have

been covered so far:
Process Map
X-Y Matrix
Fishbone Diagrams
FMEA
Examples are:
1.
Time
Shift
Day of the week
Week of the month
Season of the year
3.
Operator
Training
Experience
Skill
Adherence to procedures
2.
Location/position
Facility
Region
Office
4.
Any other sources?
158

Graphical Concepts
The characteristics of a graph are
critical to the graphing process.
The validity of data allows us to
understand the extent of error in
the data. The selection of
variables impacts how we can
control a specific output of a
process. The type of graph will
depend on the data
demographics while the range
will be related to the needs of the
customer. The visual analysis of
the graph will qualify further
investigation of the quantitative
relationship between the
variables.
T he c harac teris tic s of a g ood g raph inc lude:

Variety of data
S elec tion of
Variables
G raph
R ang e
Information to interpret relations hips

E xplore quantitative relations hips
The Histogram
A Histogram is a basic
graphing tool that
displays the relative
frequency or the
number of times a
measured items falls
within a certain cell
size. The values for the
measurements are
shown on the horizontal
axis (in cells) and the
frequency of each size
is shown on the vertical
axis as a bar graph.
The graph illustrates
the distribution of the
data by showing which
values occur most and
least frequently. A
Histogram illustrates
the shape, centering and spread of the data you have. It is very easy to construct and an easy to
use tool that you will find useful in many situations. This graph represents the data for the 20 days
of arrival times at work from the previous lesson page.
In many situations the data will form specific shaped distributions. One very common distribution
you will encounter is called the Normal Distribution, also called the bell shaped curve for its
appearance. You will learn more about distributions and what they mean throughout this course.
159

Histogram Caveat
As you can see in
the SigmaXL file
the columns used
to generate the
Histograms above
only have 20 data
points. It is easy
to generate your
own samples to
create Histogram
simply by using
the SigmaXL
menu path: Data
Manipulation>Ran
dom Subset
Variation on a Histogram
The Histogram shown here looks to be very Normal.
160

Dot Plot
Using the Graphing Data tab,
create a Dot Plot.
Histogram for the granular
distribution obscures the
granularity, whereas the Dot Plot
reveals it.
Points could have Special
Causes associated with them.
These occurrences should also
be identified in the Logbook in
order to assess the potential for a
Special Cause related to them.
You should look for potential
Special Cause situations by
examining the Dot Plot for both high frequencies and location.
If in fact there are Special Causes (Uncontrollable Noise or Procedural non-compliance) then they
should be addressed separately and then excluded from this analysis.
Take a few minutes and create other Dot Plots using the columns in this worksheet.
Box Plot
A Box Plot (sometimes called a
Whisker Plot) is made up of a box
representing the central mass of the
variation and thin lines, called
whiskers, extending out on either
side representing the thinning tails
of the distribution. Box Plots
summarize information about the
shape, dispersion and center of
your data. Because of their concise
nature, it easy to compare multiple
distributions side by side.
These may be before and after
views of a process or a variable. Or
they may be several alternative
ways of conducting an operation.
Essentially, when you want to
quickly find out if two or more
distributions are different (or the
same) then you create a Box Plot.
They can also help you spot outliers
quickly which show up as asterisks
on the chart.
B ox P lots s ummarize data about the s hape, dis pers ion and center of the
data and als o help s pot outliers .
B ox P lots require that one of the variables , X or Y , be categorical or
dis crete and the other be continuous .
A minimum of 10 obs ervations s hould be included in generating the box
plot.
Maximum Value
75th Percentile
Middle
50% of
Data
50th Percentile (Median)

Mean
25th Percentile
min(1.5 x Interquartile Range

or minimum value)
Outliers
161

Box Plot Anatomy
Box
A Box Plot is based on quartiles and

Outlier
represents a distribution as shown
*
on the left of the graphic. The lines
Upper Limit: Q3+1.5(Q3-Q1)
extending from the box are called
Upper Whisker
whiskers. The whiskers extend
outward to indicate the lowest and
highest values in the data set
Q3: 75th Percentile
(excluding outliers). The lower
Median
Q2: Median 50th Percentile
whisker represents the first 25% of
the data in the Histogram (the light
Q1: 25th Percentile
grey area). The second and third
quartiles form the box, which
Lower Whisker
represents fifty percent of the data
and finally the whisker on the right
Lower Limit: Q1+1.5(Q3-Q1)
represents the fourth quartile. The
line drawn through the box
represents the median of the data. Extreme values, or outliers, are represented by asterisks. A
value is considered an outlier if it is outside of the box (greater than Q3 or less than Q1) by
more than 1.5 times (Q3-Q1).
You can use the Box Plot to assess the symmetry of the data: If the data are fairly symmetric,
the Median line will be roughly in the middle of the box and the whiskers will be similar in length.
If the data are skewed, the Median may not fall in the middle of the box and one whisker will
likely be noticeably longer than the other.
Box Plot Examples
The first Box
Plot shows the
differences in
glucose level
for nine
different
people.
The second
Box Plot
shows the
effects of
cholesterol
medication
over time for a
group of
patients.
What can you tell

about the data
expressed in a
Box Plots?
Eat this
then
check the
Box Plot!!
162

Box Plot Examples
Use the Graphing Data worksheet tab.
The data shows the

setup cycle time to
complete Lockout
Tagout for three
people in the
department.
Looking only at the
Box Plots, it appears
that Brian should be
the benchmark for
the department
since he has the
lowest median setup
cycle time with the
smallest variation.
On the other hand,
Shrees data has 3
outlier points that
are well beyond
what would be
expected for the rest of the data and his variation is larger.
Be cautious drawing conclusions solely from a Box Plot. Shree may be the expert who is brought in
for special setups because no one else can complete the job.
163

Multi-Vari Chart Enhancement
The Multi-Vari Chart shows the
individual data points that are
represented in the Box Plot.
Open the workbook Measure
Data Sets and select the
Graphing Data tab.
The individual value plot

shown here was created
using SigmaXLs MultiVari Chart tool.
Attribute Y Box Plot

Open the Graphing Data
tab.
To create this Box Plot
follow the SigmaXL menu
path SigmaXL>Graphical
Tools>Boxplots
If the output is pass/fail, it
must be plotted on the y
axis. Use the data shown to
create the transposed Box
Plot. The reason we do this
is for consistency and
accuracy.
164

Attribute Y Box Plot
SigmaXL does not
permit transposed
value and category
scales so the above
Box Plot shows
pass/fail on the xaxis and Hydrogen
Content on the Yaxis.
Individual Value Plot

Open the Graphing Data worksheet, select Graphical Tools > Boxplots. Select Data as the
Numeric Data Variable (Y), and Distribution Type as the Group Category (X).
The Multi-Vari Chart was created and modified using Graphical Tools > Multi-Vari Options using the
same variables as the Box Plot. Note, if these options are saved they will be used in Graphical Tools
> Multi-Vari Charts.
165

Multi-Vari Individuals
Go to the MultiVari Individuals
worksheet.
Note, SigmaXL
does not support
Jitter, a feature
used to spread
the individual
data points.
Time Series Plot

Using the
Graphing Data
worksheet.
A Run Chart is
created by
following the
SigmaXL menu
path
SigmaXL>Graphic
al Tools>Run
Chart. Run charts,
also known as
Time Series Plots
are very useful in
most projects.
Every project
should provide Run
Chart data to look
for frequency,
magnitude and
patterns. What X
would cause these
issues?
166

Time Series Example
Looking at the Time
Series Plot, the
response appears
to be very dynamic.
What other
characteristic is
present?
The benefit of this
approach to
charting is you can
see every data point as it is gathered over time. Some interesting occurrences can be revealed.
Now, using the Graphing Data worksheet..
Now lets lay 2 Time Series on top of each other. This can be done by following the SigmaXL menu
path Graphical Tools > Overlay Run Chart (use variables Time 2 and Time 3).
What is happening within each plot? Whats the difference between the two plots? Time 3 appears to
have wave pattern.
Note: SigmaXL does not include Lowess Smoothing, however an advanced user could utilize
exponential smoothing in Excels Data Analysis Toolpak.
167

Explain the various statistics used to express location and spread
of data
Describe characteristics of a Normal Distribution
Explain Special Cause variation
Use data to generate various graphs and make interpretations
based on their output
You have now completed Measure Phase Six Sigma Statistics.
Notes
168
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
Measurement System Analysis
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with Measurements System Analysis.
169

Overview
Measurement System
Analysis is one of those
non-negotiable items!
MSA is applicable in
98% of projects and it
alone can have a
massive effect on the
success of your project
and improvements
within the company.
Welc
Welcome to Meas
ome to Meas ure
ure
P
Proc
roces
es ss D
Dis
is cco
overy
very
SS ix
ix S
S ig
igma S
ma S tatis
tatis tic
ticss
Meas
Meas urement S
urement S ys
ys tem
tem A
Analys
nalys is
is
B
B as
as ic
icss o
of MS
f MS A
A
In other words, LEARN

IT & DO IT. It is very
important.
V
Variables
ariables MS
MS A
A
A
Attribu
ttribute MS
te MS A
A
P
Proc
roces
es ss C
C apability
apability
Wrap Up & A
Wrap Up & Acction Items
tion Items
Introduction to MSA
So far we have learned that the heart and soul of Six Sigma is
that it is a data driven
- methodology.
How do you know that the data you have used is accurate and
precise?
How do know if a measurement is a repeatable and
reproducible?
How good are these?
Measurement
System
Analysis
Measurement
System
Analysis
or
MSA
MSA
In order to improve your processes, it is necessary to collect data on the "critical to" characteristics.
When there is variation in this data, it can either be attributed to the characteristic that is being
measured and to the way that measurements are being taken; which is known as measurement error.
When there is a large measurement error, it affects the data and may lead to inaccurate decisionmaking.
Measurement error is defined as the effect of all sources of measurement variability that cause an
observed value (measured value) to deviate from the true value.
170

Introduction to MSA (Cont.)
The measurement system is the complete process used to obtain measurements, such as the
procedures, gages and personnel that are employed to obtain measurements. Each component
of this system represents a potential source of error. It is important to identify the amount of error
and, if necessary, the sources of error. This can only be done by evaluating the measurement
system with statistical tools.
There are several types of measurement error which affect the location and the spread of the
distribution. Accuracy, linearity and stability affect location (the average). Measurement accuracy
describes the difference between the observed average and the true average based on a master
reference value for the measurements. A linearity problem describes a change in accuracy
through the expected operating range of the measuring instrument. A stability problem suggests
that there is a lack of consistency in the measurement over time. Precision is the variability in the
measured value and is quantified like all variation by using the standard deviation of the
distribution of measurements. For estimating accuracy and precision, multiple measurements of
one single characteristic must be taken.
The primary contributors to measurement system error are repeatability and reproducibility.
Repeatability is the variation in measurements obtained by one individual measuring the same
characteristic on the same item with the same measuring instrument. Reproducibility refers to
the variation in the average of measurements of an identical characteristic taken by different
individuals using the same instrument.
Given that Reproducibility and Repeatability are important types of error, they are the object of a
specific study called a Gage Repeatability & Reproducibility study (Gage R&R). This study can
be performed on either attribute-based or variable-based measurement systems. It enables an
evaluation of the consistency in measurements among individuals after having at least two
individuals measure several parts at random on a few trials. If there are inconsistencies, then the
measurement system must be improved.
Measurement System Analysis is
the entire system, NOT just
calibration or how good the
measurement instrument is. We
must evaluate the entire
environment and Measurement
System Analysis gives us a way to
evaluate the measurement
environment mathematically.
All these sources of variation
combine to yield a measurement
that is different than the true value.
It is also referred to as Gage
R&R studies where R&R is:
Repeatability & Reproducibility.
MS A is a mathematical procedure to quantify v ariation introduced to a

process or product by the a ct of measuring.
R eference
Item to b e
Meas ured
Meas urement
Operator
E nvironment
Measurement E quipment
P rocess
P rocedure
The item to be m easured c an be a physical part, document or a s c enario for c ustomer s ervice.
Operator c an refer to a person or c an be different instruments measuring the s ame products.
R eference is a s tandard that is used to c alibrate the e quipment.
P rocedure is the method used to perform the test.
E quipment is the device used to measure the product.
E nvironment is the s urroundings where the measures a re performed.
171

Measurement Purpose
Measurement is a process
within itself. In order to
measure something you must
go through a series of tasks
and activities in sequence.
Usually there is some from of
set-up, there is an instrument
that makes the measurement,
there is a way of recording the
value and it may be done by
multiple people. Even when you
are making a judgment call
about something, there is some
form of setup. You become the
instrument and the result of a
decision is recorded someway;
even if it is verbal or it is a set
of actions that you take.
Measurement Systems must provide value
Value = Accurate Information = Usable

Knowledge
Key Question
What do I need to know?

Too often, organizations build
complex data collection and
information management systems
without truly understanding how the
data collected and metrics calculated
can actually benefit the organization.
The types and sophistication of measurement vary almost infinitely. It is becoming increasingly
popular or cost effective to have computerized measurement systems. The quality of
measurements also varies significantly - with those taken by computer tending to be the best. In
some cases the quality of measurement is so bad that you would be just as well off to guess at
what the outcome should be. You will be primarily concerned with the accuracy, precision and
reproducibility of measurements to determine the usability of the data.
Purpose
The purpose of
conducting an MSA
is to
mathematically
partition sources of
variation within the
measurement
system itself. This
allows us to create
an action plan to
reduce the biggest
contributors of
measurement error.
MSA Objective
Reduce Error
The error can be partitioned into specific sources:

Precision
Repeatability - within an operator or piece of equipment
Reproducibility - operator to operator or attribute gage to
attribute gage
Accuracy
Stability - accuracy over time
Linearity- accuracy throughout the measurement range
Resolution
Bias Off-set from true value
Constant Bias
Variable Bias typically seen with electronic equipment,
amount of Bias changes with setting levels
172

Accuracy and Precision
Measurement systems, like
all things, generate some
amount of variation in the
results/data they output. In
measuring, we are primarily
concerned with 3
characteristics:
Ac
Acccurate but not prec
urate but not precisise -
e -OOn n
average, the s
average, the shots
hots are in the
are in the
center of the target but there is
center of the target but there is a
a
lot of variability
lot of variability
PPrec
recisise but not ac
e but not acccurate -
urate -TThe
he
average is
average is not on the center, but
not on the center, but
the variability is
the variability is s small
mall
1. How accurate is the

measurement? For a
repeated measurement,
where is the average
compared to some known
standard?. Think of the
target as the measurement
system, the known
standard is the bulls eye in
the center of the target. In
the first example you can
see the measurements are very dispersed, there is a lot of variability as indicated by the Histogram
curve at the bottom. But on average, the measurements are on target. When the average is on
target, we say the measurement is accurate. However, in this example they are not very precise.
2. How precise is the measurement? For a repeated measurement, how much variability exists? As
seen in the first target example, the measurements are not very precise, but on the second target
they have much less dispersion. There is less variability as seen in the Histogram curve. However, we
notice that the tight cluster of measurements are off target, they are not very accurate.
3. The third characteristic is how reproducible is the measurement from individual to another? What is
the accuracy and precision from person to person. Here you would expect each person that performs
the measurement to be able to reproduce the same amount of accuracy and precision as that of other
person performing the same measurement.
Ultimately, we make decisions based on data collected from measurement systems. If the
measurement system does not generate accurate or precise enough data, we will make the decisions
that generate errors, waste and cost. When solving a problem or optimizing a process, we must know
how good our data are and the only way to do this is to perform a Measurement System Analysis.
173

MSA Uses
M S A ca n b e u s e d to :
C ompa re interna l inspection standa rds with the standards of your
customer.
Hig hlig ht a rea s where ca libra tion tra ining is required.
Provide a method to evaluate inspector tra ining effectiveness as well
a s serves a s an excellent training tool.
Provide a g rea t wa y to:
C ompa re existing mea surement equipment.
Q ua lify new inspection equipment.
The measurement system always has some amount of variation and that variation is additive to
the actual amount of true variation that exists in what we are measuring. The only exception is
when the discrimination of the measurement system is so poor that it virtually sees everything the
same.
This means that you may actually be producing a better product or service than you think you are,
providing that the measurement system is accurate; meaning it does not have a bias, linearity or
stability problem. It may also mean that your customer may be making the wrong interpretations
about your product or service.
The components of variation are statistically additive. The primary contributors to measurement
system error are Repeatability and Reproducibility. Repeatability is the variation in measurements
obtained by one individual measuring the same characteristic on the same item with the same
measuring instrument. Reproducibility refers to the variation in the average of measurements of
an identical characteristic taken by different individuals using the same instrument.
Why MSA?
Why is MSA so important?
MSA is was allows us to trust
the data generated from our
processes. When you charter
a project you are taking on a
significant burden which will
require Statistical Analysis.
What happens if you have a
great project, with lots of data
from measurement systems
that produce data with no
integrity?
M e a s u r e m e n t S y s te m A n a ly s is is important to:
Study the % of variation in our process that is caused by our
measurement system.
C ompare measurements between operators.
C ompare measurements between two (or more) measurement
devices.
Provide criteria to accept new measurement systems (consider new
equipment).
Evaluate a suspect g ag e.
Evaluate a g ag e before and after repair.
Determine true process variation.
Evaluate effectiveness of training prog ram.
174

Appropriate Measures
Sufficient, means that are
measures are available to
be measured regularly, if
not it would take too long
to gather data.
Relevant, means that they
will help to understand
and isolate the problems.
Representative measures
mean that we can detect
variation across shifts and
people.
A p p r o p r ia te M e a s u r e s are:
Sufficient available to be measured reg ularly
Relevant help to understand/ isolate the problems
Representative - of the process across shifts and people
C ontextual collected with other relevant information that
mig ht explain process variability.
Contextual means they are necessary to gather information on other relevant information that actually
would help to explain sources of variation.
Poor Measures
It is very common
while working projects
P o o r M e a s u r e s can result from:
to discover that the
Poor or non-existent operational definitions
current measurement
systems are poor.
Difficult measures
Have you ever come
Poor sampling
across a situation
where the data from
Lack of understanding of the definitions
your customer or
Inaccurate, insufficient or non-c alibrated measurement
supplier doesnt
match yours? It
devices
happens often. It is
likely a problem with
M e a s u r e m e n t Er r o r compromises decisions that affect:
one of the
C ustomers
measurement
systems. We have
Producers
worked MSA projects
Suppliers
across critical
measurement points
in various
companies,
its
not uncommon
for more than 80% of the measurements to fail in one way or another.
175

Examples of What to Measure
At this point you should
have a fairly good idea
of what to measure,
listed here are some
ideas to get you
thinking
Ex a m p le s o f w h a t a n d w h e n to m e a s u re :
Primary and secondary metrics
Decision points in Process Maps
A ny and all g aug es, measurement devices, instruments, etc
Xs in the process
Prior to Hypothesis Testing
Prior to modeling
Prior to planning desig ned experiments
Before and after process chang es
To qualify operators
M S A is a S h o w S to p p e r!!!
Components of Variation
W h e n e v e r y o u m e a s u re a n y th in g , th e v a ria tio n th a t y o u
o b s e rv e ca n b e s e g m e n te d in to th e fo llo w in g co m p o n e n ts
O b s e rv e d V a ria tio n
Measurement System Error
Unit-to-unit (true) Variation

Precision
Repeatability
Reproducibility
A ccuracy
Stability
Bias
Linearity
A ll measurement systems ha ve error. If you dont know how much of the

variation you observe is contributed by your measurement system, you
cannot make confident decisions.
If y o u w e re o n e s p e e d in g tick e t a w a y fro m lo s in g y o u r lice n s e ,
h o w fa s t w o u ld y o u b e w illin g to d riv e in a s ch o o l z o n e ?
We are going to strive to have the measured variation be as close as possible to the true variation.
In any case we want the variation from the measurement system to be a small as possible. We are
now going to investigate the various components of variation of measurements.
176

Precision
A precise metric is one that returns the same value of a g iven

attribute every time an estimate is made.
Precise data are independent of who estimates them or when
the estimate is made.
The spread of the

data is measured by
Precision. This tells
us how well a
measure can be
repeated and
reproduced.
Precision ca n be partitioned into two components:

Repeatability
Reproducibility
R e p e a ta b ility a n d R e p ro d u cib ility = G a g e R + R
Repeatability
Measurements will be
differentexpect it! If
measurement are
always exactly the
same this is a flag,
sometimes it is
because the gauge
does not have the
proper resolution,
meaning the scale
doesnt go down far
enough to get any
variation in the
measurement.
For example, would
you use a football field
to measure the gap in a
spark plug?
R e p e a ta b ility is the variation in measurements obtained with o n e

m e a s u re m e n t in s tru m e n t used several times by one appraiser
while measuring the identical characteristic on the s a m e p a rt.
Y
Repeatability
For example:
Manufacturing : O ne person measures the purity of multiple samples
of the same via l and g ets different purity measures.
Transactiona l: O ne person evaluates a contract multiple times (over a
period of time) and makes different determina tions of errors.
177

Reproducibility
Reproducibility will
be present when it is
possible to have
more than one
operator or more
than one instrument
measure the same
part.
R e p r o d u cib ility is the variation in the averag e of the

measurements made by d iffe re n t appraisers using the s a m e
m e a s u rin g in s tru m e n t when measuring the identical
characteristic on the s a m e p a rt.
R e p ro d u cib ility
Y
O perator A
O perator B
For example:
Manufacturing : Different people perform purity test on samples from
the same vial and g et different results.
Transactional: Different people evaluate the same contract and
make different determinations.
Time Estimate Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : Demonstrate how well you can

estimate a 1 0 second time interval.
1 . Pair up with an associate.
2 . O ne person will say start and stop to indicate how
long they think the 1 0 seconds last. Do this 6 times.
3 . The other person will have a watch with a second
hand to actually measure the duration of the estimate.
Record the value where your partner cant see it.
4 . Switch tasks with partner and do it 6 times also.
5 . Record all estimates, what do you notice?
178

Accuracy
Accuracy and the
average are related.
Recall in the Basic
Statistics module we
talked about the
Mean and the
variance of a
distribution.
Think of it this
way.If the
Measurement System
is the distribution then
accuracy is the Mean
and the precision is
the variance.
A n accurate measurement is the difference between the observed a verag e of

the measurement and a reference value.
W hen a metric or measurement system consistently over or under estimates the
value of an attribute, it is said to be inaccurate
A ccuracy can be assessed in several ways:

Measurement of a known sta ndard
C omparison with another known measurement method
Prediction of a theoretical value
W hat happens if we dont have standards, comparisons or theories?

Tru e
A v e ra g e
W a rn in g , d o n o t a s s u m e y o u r
m e tro lo g y re fe re n ce is g o s p e l.
A ccu ra cy
M e a s u re m e n t
Accuracy Against a Known Standard
In Transactional Processes the measurement system can

consist of a database query.
! For example, you may be interested in measuring product returns
where you will want to analyze the details of the returns over some
time period.
! The query will provide you all the transaction details.
However, before you invest a lot of time analyzing the data, you
must ensure the data has integrity.
! The analysis should include a comparison
with known reference points.
! For the example of product returns, the
transaction details should add up to the
same number that appears on financial
reports, such as the income statement.
179

Accuracy vs. Precision
A C C U R A TE
B O TH
P R EC IS E
=
A ccuracy relates to how close the
averag e of the shots are to the
Master or bull's-eye.
Precision relates to the spread of
the shots or Variance.
N EITH ER
Most Measurement Systems are accurate but not at all precise.
Bias
B ia s is defined as the deviation of the measured value from the

actual value.
C alibration procedures can minimiz e and control bias within
acceptable limits. Ideally, Bias can never be eliminated due to
material wear and tear!
Bias
Bias
Bias is a component of Accuracy. Constant Bias is when the measurement is off by a constant
value. A scale is a prefect example, if the scale reads 3 lbs when there is no weight on it then
there is a 3lb Bias. Make sense?
180

Stability
Stability just looks
for changes in the
accuracy or Bias
over time.
S ta b ility of a g aug e is defined as error (measured in terms of

standard deviation) as a function of time. Environmental conditions
such as cleanliness, noise, vibration, lig hting , chemical, wear and
tear or other factors usually influence g aug e instability. Idea lly,
g aug es can be maintained to g ive a hig h deg ree of stability but can
never be eliminated unlike reproducibility. G aug e stability studies
would be the first exercise past calibration procedures.
C ontrol C harts are commonly used to track the stability of a
measurement system over time.
Drift
S ta b ility is B ia s ch a ra cte riz e d
a s a fu n ctio n o f tim e !
Linearity
Lin e a rity is defined as the difference in Bias values throug hout the
measurement rang e in which the g aug e is intended to be used. This tells you
how accurate your measurements are throug h the expected rang e of the
measurements. It answers the question, "Does my g ag e have the sa me
accura cy for all siz es of objects being measured?"
Linearity = | Slope| * Process Variation
Low
High
+e
B i a s (y)
% Linearity = | Slope| * 1 0 0
Nominal
-e
0.00
Reference Value (x)

y = a + b.x
y: Bias, x: Ref. Value
a: Slope, b: Intercept
Linearity just evaluates if any Bias is consistent throughout the measurement range of the
instrument. Many times Linearity indicates a need to replace or maintenance measurement
equipment.
181

Types of MSAs
Variable Data is
always preferred over
Attribute because it
give us more to work
with.
Now we are gong to
review Variable MSA
testing.
M S A s fa ll in to tw o ca te g o rie s :
A ttrib u te
V a ria b le
A ttrib u te
V a ria b le
P a s s / Fa il
G o / N o G o
D o cu m e n t P r e p a ra tio n
S u rfa ce im p e rfe ctio n s
C u s to m e r S e rv ice
Resp onse
C o n tin u o u s s ca le
D is cre te s ca le
C ritica l d im e n s io n s
P u ll s tre n g th
W a rp
Tra n s a ctio n a l p ro je cts ty p ica lly h a v e a ttrib u te b a s e d

m e a s u re m e n t s y s te m s .
M a n u fa ctu rin g p ro je cts g e n e ra lly u s e v a ria b le s tu d ie s m o re
o fte n , b u t d o u s e a ttrib u te s tu d ie s to a le s s e r d e g re e .
Variable MSAs
MSAs use a random effects model meaning that the levels for the variance components are not
fixed or assigned, they are assumed to be random.
182

Cheat Sheet
SigmaXLs
default is 6 *
StDev. Select
5.15 * StDev
in the dialog
box. SigmaXL
uses this
default to be
consistent with
6 * StDev used
in process
capability .
The 5.15
multiplier is
common in the
automotive
industry (AIAG
MSA
Handbook).
The worksheet used for this example is Gage AIAG 2 -SigmaXL Template . The above slide is for
demonstration purposes, this dataset will be used in a later exercise.
Notice the calculation method explained here for Distinct Categories.
Traditionally NDC is truncated to an integer value, but SigmaXL reports a more informative one
decimal place.
183

Number of Distinct Categories
Th e n u m b e r o f d is tin ct ca te g o rie s te lls y o u h o w m a n y s e p a ra te

g ro u p s o f p a rts th e s y s te m is a b le to d is tin g u is h .
U n a ccep ta b le fo r
e s tim a tin g p ro ces s
p a ra m e te rs a n d in d ice s
O n ly in d ica te s w h e th e r
th e p ro ces s is p ro d u cin g
co n fo rm in g o r
n o n co n fo rm in g p a rts
1 Data Category
G e n e ra lly u n a cce p ta b le
fo r e s tim a tin g p ro ce s s
p a ra m e te rs a n d in d ice s
O n ly p ro v id es co a rs e
e s tim a tes
2 - 4 Categories
R eco m m e n d e d
5 or more Categories
Here is a rule of thumb for distinct categories.
AIAG Standards for Gage Acceptance
Here are the A utomotive Industry A ction G roups definitions for

G ag e acceptance.
% To le ra n ce
or
% S tu d y V a ria n ce
% C o n trib u tio n
S y s tem is
1 0 % o r le s s
1 % o r le s s
Id e a l
1 0 % - 2 0 %
1 % - 4 %
A ccep ta b le
2 0 % - 3 0 %
5 % - 9 %
M a rg in a l
3 0 % o r g re a te r
1 0 % o r g re a te r
Poor
184

SigmaXL Graphic Output Cheat Sheet
This chart may be recreated by taking the following steps:

1. Copy the % Total Variation (TV) column.
2. Paste the column to the right of the % Contribution of Variance Component column.
3. Highlight the entire table which the % Total Variation (TV) was added.
4. From Excel, Insert> (Chart) Column>2-D Clustered Column.
5. Delete the Variance Component column from this chart.
This chart may be found in the Gage R&R - X-Bar & R (1) worksheet.
185

SigmaXL Graphic Output Cheat Sheet (cont.)
SigmaXL produces these Multi-Vari Charts as part of the Gage R&R report. Select the Gage
R&R - X-Bar & R (1) worksheet.
Currently the Gage R&R report in SigmaXL does not include an Interaction Plot. The following
steps show how to create the Interaction Plot using Two-Way ANOVA:
1. Select the data
which will be used for
the chart.
2. Select
SigmaXL>Statistical
Tools>Two-Way
ANOVA
3. This chart was
generated from the
Gage AIAG2 SigmaXL Format
worksheet. Select
Response as
Numerical Data
Variable (Y), Part
as Group Category
Factor (X1), and
Operator as Group
Category Factor
(X2).
The operator by part interaction plot is given in the Two-Way ANOVA output worksheet.
186

SigmaXL Graphic Output Cheat Sheet (cont.)
Currently the Gage R&R report in SigmaXL does not include a Multi-Vari Chart showing all parts.
To create the above chart, use SigmaXLs Multi-Vari tool:
1. Select the data
the chart.
2. Select
SigmaXL>Graphical
Tools>Multi-Vari
Chart
3. This chart was
generated from the
worksheet. Select
Response as
Numerical Data
Variable (Y), Part
as Group Category
Factor (X1), and
Operator as Group
Category Factor
(X2).
This Multi-Vari Chart was created with SigmaXLs Multi-Vari tool:

1. Select the data
the chart.
2. Select
SigmaXL>Graphical
Tools>Multi-Vari
Chart
3. This chart was
generated from the
worksheet. Select
Response as
Numerical Data
Variable (Y),
Operator as Group
Category Factor
(X1), and Part as
Group Category
Factor (X2).
187

Practical Conclusions
Repeatability and Reproducibility Problems

For Repeatability Problems:
If all operators have the same
Repeatability and it is too big,
the gage needs to be repaired
or replaced.
If only one operator or in the
case where there are no
operators, but several gages
and only one gage is showing
Repeatability problems, retrain the one operator or
replace the one gage.
R e p e a ta b ility P r o b le m s :
C alibrate or replace g ag e.
If only occurring with one operator, re-train.
R e p r o d u cib ility P r o b le m s :
Measurement ma chines
Similar machines
Ensure all have been calibrated a nd that the sta ndard measurement
method is being utiliz ed.
Dissimilar ma chines
O ne machine is superior.
O perators
Training and skill level of the operators must be assessed.
O perators should be observed to ensure that sta nda rd procedures are
followed.
O perator/ machine by part intera ctions
Understand why the operator/ machine had problems measuring some parts
and not others.
Re-measure the problem parts
Problem could be a result of g ag e linearity
Problem could be fixture problem
Problem could be poor g ag e design
For Reproducibility Problems:

In the case where only
machines are used and the
multiple machines are all
similar in design, check the
calibration and ensure that the
standard measurement method is being used. One of the gages maybe performing differently than
the rest, the graphs will show which one is performing differently. It may need to go in for repair or it
may simply be a setup or calibration issue. If dissimilar machines are used it typically means that
one machine is superior. In the case where multiple operator are the graphs will show who will need
additional training to perform at the same level as the rest. The most common operator/machine
interactions are either someone misread a value, recorded the value incorrectly or that the fixture
holding the part is poor.
188

Design Types
Crossed Designs are
the workhorse of
MSA. They are the
most commonly
used design in
industries where it is
possible to measure
something more than
once. Chemical and
biological systems
can use Crossed
Designs also as long
as you can assume
that the samples
used come from a
homogeneous
solution and there is
no reason they can
be different.
C ro s s e d D e s ig n
A crossed desig n is used only in non-d estructive testing and assumes that all
the parts can be measured multiple times by either operators or multiple
machines.
G ives the ability to separate part-to-p art varia tion from measurement
system variation.
A ssesses repeatability and reproducibility.
A ssesses the interaction between the operator and the part.
N e s te d D e s ig n
A nested desig n is used for destructive testing (we will learn a bout this in
MBB tra ining ) and also situations where it is not possible to ha ve all
operators or machines measure all the parts multiple times.
Destructive testing assumes that all the parts within a sing le b atch are
identical enoug h to claim they are the same.
N ested desig ns are used to test measurement systems where it is not
possible (or desirable) to send operators with parts to different locations.
Do not include all possible combinations of factors.
Uses slig htly different mathematical model than the crossed desig n.
Nested Designs must be used for destructive testing. In a Nested Design, each part is measured by
only one operator. This is due to the fact that after destructive testing, the measured characteristic
is different after the measurement process than it was at the beginning. Crash testing is an example
of destructive testing.
If you need to use destructive testing, you must be able to assume that all parts within a single
batch are identical enough to claim that they are the same part. If you are unable to make that
assumption then part-to-part variation within a batch will mask the measurement system variation.
If you can make that assumption, then choosing between a Crossed or Nested Gage R&R Study for
destructive testing depends on how your measurement process is set up. If all operators measure
parts from each batch, then use Gage R&R Study (Crossed). If each batch is only measured by a
single operator, then you must use Gage R&R Study (Nested). In fact, whenever operators measure
unique parts, you have a Nested Design. Your Master Black Belt can assist you with the set-up of
your design.
189

Gage R & R Study
A Gage R&R, like any study,
Gage R&R Study
requires careful planning. The
Is a set of trials conducted to assess the Repeatability and
common way of doing an
Reproducibility of the measurement system.
Attribute Gage R&R consists
Multiple people measure the same characteristic of the same set of
of having at least two people
multiple units multiple times (a crossed study)
measure 20 parts at random,
Example: 10 units are measured by 3 people. These units are then
twice each. This will enable
randomized and a second measure on each unit is taken.
you to determine how
consistently these people
A Blind Study is extremely desirable.
evaluate a set of samples
Best scenario: operator does not know the measurement is a part of a
against a known standard. If
test
there is no consistency
At minimum: operators should not know which of the test parts they are
among the people, then the
currently measuring.
measurement system must
be improved, either by
defining a measurement
NO, not that kind of R&R!!
method, training, etc. You use
an Excel spreadsheet
template to record your study and then to perform the calculations for the result of the study.
Variable Gage R & R Steps
The parts selected for
S te p 1 : C all a team meeting a nd introduce the concepts of the G ag e R&R
the MSA are not
S te p 2 : Select parts for the study across the rang e of interest
random samples. We
If the intent is to evaluate the measurement system throug hout the process rang e,
want to be sure the
select parts throug hout the rang e
parts selected
If only a small improvement is being made to the process, the ra ng e of interest is
now the improvement rang e
represent the overall
S te p 3 : Identify the inspectors or equipment you plan to use for the ana lysis
spread of parts that
In the case of inspectors, explain the purpose of the analysis a nd that the
would normally be seen
inspection system is being evaluated not the people
in manufacturing. Do
S te p 4 : C alibrate the g ag e or g ag es for the study
not include parts that
Remember linearity, stability and bias
are obviously grossly
S te p 5 : Have the first inspector measure all the sa mples once in random order
defective, they could
S te p 6 : Have the second inspector measure all the samples in random order
actually skew your
C ontinue this process until all the operators have measured all the parts one time
mathematical results
This completes the first replicate
and conclude that the
S te p 7 : Repeat steps 5 and 6 for the required number of replicates
MSA is just fine. For
Ensure there is always a delay between the first and second insp ection
example, an engine
S te p 8 : Enter the data into MIN ITA B TM and analyz e your results
manufacturer was using
S te p 9 : Draw conclusions and ma ke chang es if necessary
a pressure tester to
check for leaks in engine blocks. All the usual ports were sealed with plugs and the tester was
attached and pressure was applied. Obviously, they were looking for pin hole leaks that would cause
problems later down the line. The team performing the MSA decided to include an engine block that
had a hole in the casting so large you could insert your entire fist. That was an obvious gross defect
and should never been included in the MSA. Dont be silly saying that once in a while you get a part
like that and it should be tested. NO IT SHOULDNT - you should never have received it in the first
place and you have got much bigger problems to take care of before you do an MSA.
190

Gage R & R Study
This is the most
commonly used
Crossed Design.
10 parts are each
measure by 3
different operators
2 different times.
To get the total
number of data
points in the study
simply multiply
these numbers
together. In this
study we have 60
measurements.
P a rt A llo ca tio n Fro m A n y P o p u la tio n

1 0 x 3 x 2 C ro s s e d D e s ig n is s h o w n
A m in im u m o f tw o m e a s u re m e n ts / p a rt/ o p e ra to r is re q u ire d
Th re e is b e tte r!
Tria l 1
O p e ra to r 1
P
a
r
t
s
Tria l 2
1
9 10
Tria l 1
O p e ra to r 2
Tria l 2
Tria l 1
O p e ra to r 3
Tria l 2
Data Collection Sheet
This and the next few slides show how to create a data collection table in SigmaXL.
191

192

Gage R & R
We will now repeat the
analysis of the
previous Gage R&R
data with a Standard
Deviation Multiplier of
6 and a Tolerance
value of 1. Recall that
the previous analysis
used a Standard
Deviation Multiplier of
5.15. Change Alpha to
remove interaction to
0.25. This will prevent
SigmaXL from
removing the part by
operator interaction
term.
Select SigmaXL>Measurement Systems Analysis > Analyze Gage R&R (Crossed) and enter the
values as shown above.
Graphical Output
This chart may be recreated by taking the following steps:
1. Copy the % Total
Variation (TV) column.
2. Paste the column to the
right of the %
Contribution of Variance
Component column.
3. Copy the %
Tolerence column.
4. Paste the column to the
right of the % Total
Variation (TV) column.
5. Highlight the entire
table which the % Total
Variation (TV) was
added.
6. From Excel, Insert>
(Chart) Column>2-D
Clustered Column.
7. Delete the Variance
Component column
from this chart.
193

Graphical Output (cont.)
This Multi-Vari Chart was created with
SigmaXLs Multi-Vari tool:
1.Select the data which will be used for the
chart.
2.Select SigmaXL>Graphical Tools>MultiVari Chart
3. This chart was generated from the
Gage AIAG2 - SigmaXL Format
worksheet. Select Response as
Numerical Data Variable (Y), Operator
as Group Category Factor (X1), and
Part as Group Category Factor (X2).
The ANOVA table values are utilized to calculate % Contribution and Standard Deviation. To
calculate % study variation and % tolerance, you will need to know values for the Standard
Deviation and tolerance ranges. SigmaXL defaults to a value of 6 (the number of Standard
Deviations within which about 99.7 % of your values should fall). Tolerance ranges are based on
process tolerance and are business values specific to each process.
I can see clearly now!!
This output tells us the Tolerance is 19.40, the output is 17.05. Therefore, this gage is acceptable.
194

Signal Averaging
Signal Averaging Example
Suppose SV/ Tolerance is 3 5 %.

SV/ Tolerance must be 1 5 % or less to use g ag e.
Suppose the Standard Deviation for one part measured by one person
many times is 9 .5 .
Determine what the new reduced Standard Deviation should be.
Here we have a problem with Repeatability, not Reproducibility so we calculate what the Standard
Deviation should be in order to meet our desire of a 15% gage.
The 35% represents the biggest problem, Repeatability.
We are assuming that 15% will be acceptable for the short term until an appropriate fix can be
implemented. The 9.5 represents our estimate for Standard Deviation of population of Repeatability.
195

Signal Averaging Example (cont.)
We now use it in the
Central Limit
Theorem equation
to estimate the
needed number of
repeated measures
to do this we will use
the Standard
Deviation estimated
previously.
Determine sample size:
Using the average of 6

repeated measures will
reduce the Repeatability
component of
measurement error to the
desired 15% level.
This method should be considered temporary!
Paper Cutting Exercise
196

Attribute MSA
The Discrete Measurement
Study is a set of trials
conducted to assess the ability
of operators to use an
operational definition or
categorize samples, an
Attribute MSA has:
1 . Multiple operators measure
(categorize) multiple samples a
multiple number of times. For
example: 3 operators each
categorize the same 50
samples, then repeat the
measures at least once.
A methodolog y used to assess A ttribute Measurement Systems.
AAttribute G
ttribute Gag
age Error
e Error
Repeata
Repeatability
bility
Reproducibility
Reproducibility
CCaalibration
libration
They a re used in situa tions where a continuous mea sure ca nnot

be obta ined.
It requires a minimum of 5 x a s ma ny sa mples a s a continuous
study.
Disa g reements should be used to cla rify opera tiona l definitions
for the ca teg ories.
A ttribute data are usua lly the result of huma n judg ment (which
categ ory does this item belong in).
W hen ca teg oriz ing items (g ood/ bad; type of call; reason for
leaving ) you need a hig h deg ree of ag reement on which way a n
item should be ca teg oriz ed.
2. The test should be blind. It

is difficult to run this without the
operator knowing it is a
calibration test, but the
samples should be randomized and their true categorization unknown to each operator.
The test is analyzed based on correct (vs. incorrect) answers to determine the goodness of the
measuring system.
Attribute MSA Purpose
The purpose of an A ttr ib u te M S A is:
To determine if all inspectors use the same criteria to determine pass from fail.
To assess your inspection sta ndards ag ainst your customers requirements.
To determine how well inspectors are conforming to themselves.
To identify how inspectors are conforming to a known master, which includes:
How often operators ship defective product.
How often operators dispose of acceptable product.
Discover areas where:
Training is required.
Procedures must be developed.
Sta ndards are not available.
A n A ttribute MSA is similar in many ways to the continuous MSA , including the
purposes. Do you ha ve any visual inspections in your processes? In your experience
how effective ha ve they been?
When a Continuous MSA is not possible an Attribute MSA can be performed to evaluate the quality
of the data being reported from the process.
197

Visual Inspection Test
Take 60 Seconds and count the number of times F appears in this paragraph?
The N ecessity of Training Farm Hands for First C lass Farms

in the Fatherly Handling of Farm Live Stock is Foremost in
the Eyes of Farm O wners. Since the Forefathers of the Farm
O wners Trained the Farm Hands for First C lass Farms in
the Fatherly Handling of Farm Live Stock, the Farm O wners
Feel they should carry on with the Family Tradition of
Training Farm Hands of First C lass Farmers in the Fatherly
Handling of Farm Live Stock Because they Believe it is the
Basis of G ood Fundamental Farm Manag ement.
Tally the answers? Did everyone get the same answer? Did anyone get 36? Thats the right
answer!
Why not? Does everyone know what an F (defect) looks like? Was the lighting good in the
room? Was it quite so you could concentrate? Was the writing clear? Was 60 seconds long
enough?
This is the nature of visual inspections! How many places in your process do you have visual
inspection? How good do you expect them to be?
How can we Improve Visual Inspection?
V is u a l In s p e ctio n ca n b e im p ro v e d b y :
O p e ra to r Tra in in g & C e rtifica tio n
D e v e lo p V is u a l A id s / B o u n d a ry S a m p le s
Es ta b lis h S ta n d a rd s
Es ta b lis h S e t-U p P ro ce d u re s
Es ta b lis h Ev a lu a tio n P ro ce d u re s
Ev a lu a tio n o f th e s a m e lo ca tio n o n e a ch p a rt.
Ea ch e v a lu a tio n p e rfo rm e d u n d e r th e s a m e lig h tin g .
En s u re a ll e v a lu a tio n s a re m a d e w ith th e s a m e
s ta n d a rd .
ook closely
n ow!
Look Lclosely
now!!
198

Attribute Agreement Analysis
199

Attribute Agreement Analysis (cont.)
Fleiss Kappa statistic is a correlation coefficient for discrete data. Kappa ranges from -1 to +1. A
Kappa value of +1 indicates perfect agreement. If Kappa = 0, then agreement is the same as would
be expected by chance. If Kappa = -1, then there is perfect disagreement. Kappa values > 0.9
indicate a very good measurement system; Kappa values > 0.7 indicate an acceptable
measurement system.
The Between Appraiser Agreement and All Appraisers vs. Standard Agreement are also known as
System Effectiveness Scores, with > 95% considered very good, 90-95% acceptable, 80 to < 90
% marginal, and < 80 % unacceptable.
Clearly this measurement system needs to be improved, but we should not be quick to judge
Appraiser C. The confidence intervals are quite wide and overlap. It is a good practice to blame
the process not the people. Look for unclear or confusing operational definitions, inadequate
training, operator distractions or poor lighting. Consider the use of pictures to clearly define a
defect. Use Attribute MSA as a way to put your stake in the ground and track the effectiveness of
improvements to the measurement system.
200

M&M Exercise
Exercise objective: Perform and Analyze an Attribute MSA Study.
Number
Part
Attribute
M&M
Pass
M&M
Fail
M&M
Pass
You will need the following to complete the study:
A bag of M&Ms containing 50 or more pieces
The attribute value for each piece.
Three or more inspectors.
Judge each M&M as pass or fail.
The customer has indicated that they want a bright and shiny M&M
and that they like M s.
Pick 50 M&Ms out of a package.
Enter results into SigmaXL s Attribute MSA Template and

draw conclusions.
The instructor will represent the customer for the Attribute

score.
To complete this study you will need, a bag of M&Ms containing 50 or more pieces. The
Attribute Value for each piece, which means the True value for each piece, in addition to being
the facilitator of this study you will also serve as the customer, so you will have the say as to if the
piece is actually a Pass or Fail piece. Determine this before the inspectors review the pieces.
You will need to construct a sheet as shown here to keep track of the pieces or parts in our
case M&Ms it is important to be well organized during these activities. Then the inspectors will
individually judge each piece based on the customer specifications of bright and shiny M&M with
nice Ms.
201

Understand Precision & Accuracy
Understand Bias, Linearity and Stability
Understand Repeatability & Reproducibility
Understand the impact of poor gage capability on
product quality.
Identify the various components of variation
Perform the step by step methodology in variable,
and attribute MSAs
You have now completed Measure Phase Measurement System Analysis.
Notes
202
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
Process Capability
Now we will continue in the Measure Phase with Process Capability.
203
Process Capability
Overview
Within this module we
are going to go through
Stability and its affect
on a process as well as
how to measure the
Capability of a process.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to M
Meeaa ssuure
re
We will examine the

meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
M
Meeaa ssuure
rem
m eennt t SSyy sste
tem
m
AA nnaa ly
ly ssis
is
PPro
roce
cessss D
Dis
isco
covv eery
ry
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
PPro
roce
cessss CCaa ppaa bbility
ility
CC ontinuous C
ontinuous C apa
apability
bility
CC oncept of Stability
oncept of Stability
AAttribute C
ttribute C apability
apability
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Understanding Process Capability
Process Capability:
The inherent ability of a process to meet the expectations of the

customer without any additional efforts.
Provides insight as to whether the process has a :
Centering Issue (relative to specification limits)

Variation Issue
A combination of Centering and Variation
Inappropriate specification limits
Allows for a baseline metric for improvement.
Are you capable?!

*Efforts: Time, Money, Manpower, Technology, and Manipulation
This is the Definition of Process Capability. We will now begin to learn how to assess it.
204
Process Capability
Capability as a Statistical Problem
Simply put Six
Sigma always starts
with a practical
problem, translates it
into a statistical
problem, corrects the
statistical problem
and then validates
the practical
problem.
O u r S ta tis tica l P ro b le m : W hat is the probability of our

process producing a defect ?
Define a Practical
Problem
C reate a
Sta tistical Problem
C orrect the
Sta tistical Problem
We will re-visit this

concept over and
over, especially in
the Analyze Phase
when determining
sample size.
A pply the C orrection

to the Practical
Problem
Capability Analysis
Op i
Verified
?
Op i + 1
Analysis
Scrap
Frequency
Capability Analysis provides

The Xs
The Ys
you with a quantitative
Y = f(X) (Process Function)
Variation Voice of
(Inputs)
(Outputs)
the Process
assessment of your
processes ability to meet the
Data for
requirements placed on it.
Y1Yn
Y1
Capability Analysis is
Y2
traditionally used for
Y3
assessing the outputs of a
process, in other words
comparing the Voice of the
Requirements Voice
Critical X(s):
Process to the Voice of the
of the Customer
Any variable(s)
USL = 10.44
LSL = 9.96
which exerts an
Customer. However, you can
undue influence on
the important
use the same technique to
outputs (CTQs) of a
process
assess the capability of the
inputs going into the
C a p a b ility A n a ly s is N u m erica lly
process. they are after all,
C o m p a re s th e V O P to th e V O C
outputs from some previous
Percent Composition
process, and you have
expectations, specifications or requirements for their performance. Capability Analysis will give you
a metric that you can use to describe how well it performs and you can convert this metric to a
sigma score if you so desire.
X1
X2
Off-Line
Correction
X3
X4
Yes
X5
No
10.16
10.11
10.16
10.05
10.11
10.33
10.05
10.44
10.33
9.86
10.44
10.07
9.86
10.29
10.07
10.36
10.29
10.36
9.87
10.16
9.99
9.87 10.11
10.12
9.99 10.05
10.43
10.12 10.33
10.21
10.43 10.44
10.01
10.21 9.86
10.15
10.01 10.07
10.44
10.15 10.29
10.03
10.44 10.36
10.33
10.03
10.15
10.33
10.15
9.80 9.90 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5
Correctable
Data - VOP
10.16
10.11
10.05
10.33
10.44
9.86
10.07
10.29
10.36
9.87
9.99
10.12
10.43
10.21
10.01
10.15
10.44
10.03
10.33
10.15
10.16
10.11
10.05
10.33
10.44
9.86
10.07
10.29
10.36
Defects
-6
-5
Defects
-4
-3
-2
-1
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
9.70 9.80 9.90 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6
You will learn in the lesson how the output variation width of a given process output compares with
the specification width established for that out put. This ratio, the output variation width divided by
the specification width is what is know as capability.
Since the specification is an essential part of this assessment, a rigorous understanding of the
validity of the specification is vitally important, it also has to be accurate. This is why it is important
to perform a RUMBA type analysis on process inputs and outputs.
205
Process Capability
Process Output Categories
e
uc
d
Re
Two output behaviors

determine how well we meet
Incapable
Off target
our customer or process
Average
LSL
USL
Average
LSL
USL
output expectations. The first
is the amount of variation
present in the output and the
second is how well the output
is centered relative to the
Target
Target
requirements. If the amount of
s
es
variation is larger than the
Capable and
oc
r
on target
p
difference between the upper
er
Average
nt
e
LSL
USL
spec limit minus the lower
C
spec limit, our product or
service output will always
produce defects, it will not be
capable of meeting the
Target
customer or process output
requirements.
As you have learned, variation exists in everything. There will always be variability in every process
output. You cant eliminate it completely, but you can minimize it and control it. You can tolerate
variability if the variability is relatively small compared to the requirements and the process
demonstrates long-term stability, in other words the variability is predictable and the process
performance is on target meaning the average value is near the middle value of the requirements.
ad
re
sp
The output from a process is either: capable or not capable, centered or not centered. The degree
of capability and/or centering determines the number of defects generated. If the process is not
capable, you must find a way to reduce the variation.
And if it is not centered, it is obvious that you must find a way to shift the performance. But what do
you do if it is both incapable and not centered? It depends, but most of the time you must minimize
and get control of the variation first, this is because high variation creates high uncertainty, you
cant be sure if your efforts to move the average are valid or not. Of course, if is just a simple
adjustment to shift the average to where you want it, you would do that before addressing the
variation.
Problem Solving Options Shift the Mean
Our efforts in a Six Sigma
project that is examining a
process that is performing at a
level less than desired is to
Shift the Mean of performance
such that all outputs are within
an acceptable range.
This involves finding the variables that will shift the process over to the
targ et. This is usually the easiest option.
LS L
S hift
US L
Our ability to Shift the Mean

involves finding the variables
that will shift the process over
to the target. This is the
easiest option.
206
Process Capability
Problem Solving Options Reduce Variation
Reducing the variation means
fewer of our outputs fail
further away from the target.
Our objective then is to
reduce variation of the inputs
to stabilize the output.
This is typically not so easy to accomplish and occurs often in Six

Sig ma projects.
LS L
US L
Problem Solving Options Shift Mean & Reduce Variation

Combination of shifting the
Mean and reducing variation
This is the primary objective of
Six Sigma projects.
This occurs often in Six Sig ma projects.
LS L
S hift & Reduce
US L
Problem Solving Options

Move the specification limits
Obviously this implies making
them wider, not narrower.
Customers usually do not go
for this option.
O bviously this implies making them wider, not narrower. C ustomers

usually do not g o for this option but if they do its the easiest!
LS L
US L
US L
Move S pec
207
Process Capability
Capability Studies
A stable process is one that is
consistent with time. Time
Series Plots are one way to
check for stability, Control
Charts are another. Your
process may not be stable at
this time. One of the purposes
of the Measure Phase is to
identify the many Xs possible
for the defects seen, gather
data and plot it to see if there
are any patterns to identify
what to work on first.
C a p a b ility S tu d ie s :
A re intended to be reg ular, periodic, estimations of a processs ability
to meet its requirements.
C an be conducted on both discrete and continuous data.
A re most meaning ful when conducted on stable, predictable
processes.
A re commonly reported as Sig ma Level which is optimal (short term)
performance.
Require a thoroug h understanding of the following :
C ustomers or businesss specifica tion limits

N a ture of long term vs. short term da ta
Mea n a nd S ta nda rd Devia tion of the process
A ssessment of the norma lity of the da ta (continuous da ta only)
Procedure for determining S ig ma level
When performing Capability

Analysis, try to get as much
data as are possible, back as far in time as possible, over a reference frame that is generally
representative of your process.
Steps to Capability
Select Output for

Improvement
#1
Verify Customer
Requirements
#2
Validate
Specification
Limits
#3
Collect Sample
Data
#4
Determine
Data Type
(LT or ST)
#5
Check data
for normality
#6
Calculate
Z-Score, PPM,
Yield, Capability
Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk
#7
208
Process Capability
Verifying the Specifications
Q u e s tio n s to co n s id e r:
Specifications must be
verified before
completing the
Capability Analysis. It
doesnt mean that you
will be able to change
them, but on occasion
some internal
specifications have
been made much
tighter than the
customer wants.
W hat is the source of the specifications?
C ustomer requirements (VO C )

Business requirements (targ et, benchmark)
C ompliance requirements (reg ulations)
Desig n requirements (blueprint, system)
A re they current? Likely to chang e?

A re they understood and ag reed upon?
O perationa l definitions
Deployed to the work force
Data Collection
Capability Studies should include all observations (100% sampling) for a specified period.
Long-term data:
Is collected across a broader inference
space.
Monthly, quarterly; across multiple
shifts, machines, operators, etc
Subject to both common and special
causes of variation.
More representative of process
performance over a period of time.
Typically consists of at least 100 200
data points.
Short-term data:
Collected across a narrow
inference space.
Daily, weekly; for one shift,
machine, operator, etc.
Is potentially free of special cause
variation.
Often reflects the optimal
performance level.
Typically consists of 30 50 data
points.
Lot 1
Fill Quantity
You must know if the data

collected from process
outputs is a short-term or
a long-term representation
of how well the process
performs. There are
several reasons for this,
but for now we will focus
on it from the perspective
of assessing the capability
of the process.
Lot 5
Lot 3
To help you understand

Lot 2
short-term vs. long-term
Lot 4
data, we will start by
Short-term studies
looking at a manufacturing
Long-term study
example first. In this
scenario the manufacturer
is filling bottles with a certain amount of fluid. Assume that the product is built in lots. Each lot is built
using a particular vendor of the bottle, by a particular shift and set of employees and by one of many
manufacturing lines. The next lot could be from a different vendor, employees, line, shift, etc.
Each lot is sampled as it leaves the manufacturing facility on its way to the warehouse. The results
are represented by the graphic where you see the performance data on a lot by lot basis for the
amount of fill based on the samples that were taken. Each lot has its own variability and average as
shown. The variability actually looks reasonable and we notice that the average from lot to lot is
varying as well.
What the customer eventually experiences in the amount of fluid in each bottle is the value across
the full variability of all the lots. It can now be seen and stated that the long-term variability will always
be greater than the short-term variability.
209
Process Capability
Baseline Performance
Here is another way to look
at long-term and short-term
performance. The road
appearing graphic actually
represents the target (center
line) and the upper and lower
spec limits. Here again you
see the representative
performance in short-term
snapshots, which result in
the larger long-term
performance.
PPro
roce
cessss BBaasseelin
linee: : The
The
averag
average, long
e, long-t-erm performance
term performance
level of a process when all input
level of a process when all input
variables are unconstrained.
variables are unconstrained.
Lo
Lonngg-te
-term
rm
bbaasseelin
linee
SShhoort
rt Te
Term
rm
PPeerfo
rforrmmaannce
ce
Process Baseline is a term

2
that you will use frequently
1
as a way to describe the
output performance of a
LSL
TARGET
USL
process. Whenever you hear
the word Baseline it
automatically implies long-term performance. To not use long-term data to describe the Baseline
Performance would be dangerous.
As an example, imagine you reported that the process performance Baseline was based on
distribution 3 in the graphic, you would mislead yourself and others that the process had excellent on
target performance. If you used distribution 2, you would be led to believe that the average
performance was near the USL and that most of the output of the process was above the spec limit. To
resolve these potential problems, it is important to always use long-term data to report the Baseline.
How do you know if the data you have is short or long-term data? Here are some guidelines. A
somewhat technical interpretation of long-term data is the process has had the opportunity to
experience most of the sources of variation that can impact it. Remembering the outputs are a function
of the inputs, what we are saying is that most of the combinations of the inputs, each with their full
range of variation has been experienced by the process. You may use these situations as guidelines.
Short-term data is a snapshot of process performance and is characterized by these types of
conditions:
One shift
One line
One batch
One employee
One type of service
One or only a few suppliers
Long-term data is a video of process performance and is characterized by these types of conditions:
Many shifts
Many batches
Many employees
Many services and lines
Many suppliers
Long-term variation is larger than short-term variation because of : material differences, fluctuations in
temperature and humidity, different people performing the work, multiple suppliers providing materials,
equipment wear, etc.
As a general rule, short-term data consist of 20 to 30 data points over a relatively short period of time
and long-term data consist of 100 to 200 data points over an extended period of time. Do not be
210
Process Capability
Baseline Performance (cont.)
misled by the volume of product or service produced as an indicator of long and short-term
performance. Data that represents the performance of a process that produces 100,000 widgets a day
for that day will be short-term performance. Data the represents the performance of a process that
produces 20 widgets a day over a 3 month period will be long-term performance.
While we have used a manufacturing example to explain all this, it is exactly the same for a service or
administrative type of process. In these types of processes, there are still different people, different
shifts, different workloads, differences in the way inputs come into the process, different software,
computers, temperatures, etc. The same exact concepts and rules apply.
You should now appreciate why, when we report process performance, we need to know what the data
is representative of. Using such data we will now demonstrate how to calculate process capability and
then we will show how it is used.
There are many ways
to look at the
difference between
short-term and longterm data.
First keep on mind
that you never have
purely short-term or
purely long-term data.
It is always something
in between.
Short-term data
basically represent
your entitlement
situation: you are
controlling all the
controllable sources
of variation.
Even stable processes will drift and shift over time by as much as 1 .5
Standard Deviations on the averag e.
Lo n g Te rm
O v e ra ll V a ria tio n
S h o rt Te rm
B e tw e e n G ro u p V a ria tio n
S h o rt Te rm
W ith in G ro u p V a ria tio n
Long-term data includes (in theory) all the variation that one can expect to see in the process.
Usually what we have is something in between. It is a judgment call to decide which type of data you
have: it varies depending on what you are trying to do with it and what you want to learn from it.
In general one or more months of data are probably more long-term than short-term; two weeks or
less is probably more like short-term data.
211
Process Capability
Sum of the Squares Formulas
These are the equations
describing the sum of
squares which are the
basis for the calculations
used in capability.
to ta l
SS
b e tw e e n
x
x
x
x
x
x
SS
x
x
x
x
x
x
w ith in
P rec is ion
(s hort-term c apability)
S hift
Output Y
No, you do not need to

memorize them or even
really understand them.
They are built into
SigmaXL for the
processing of data.
SS
x
x
T ime
Stability
Stability is established by
plotting data in a Time
Series Plot or in a
Control Chart. If the data
used in the Control Chart
goes out of control, the
data is not stable.
At this point in the
Measure Phase there is
no reason to assume the
process is stable.
Performing a Capability
Study at this point
effectively draws a line in
the sand.
A Stable Process is consistent over time. Time Series Plots and

Control Charts are the typical graphs used to determine stability.
Tic toc
tic toc!
If however, the process is

stable, short-term data
provides a more reliable estimate of true Process Capability.
Looking at the Time Series Plot shown here, where would you look to determine the entitlement of
this process?
As you can see the circled region has a much tighter variation. We would consider this the process
entitlement; meaning, that if we could find the Xs that are causing the instability this is the best the
process can perform in the short term. The idea is that weve done it for some time, we should be
able to do it again. This does not mean that this is the best this process will ever be able to do.
212
Process Capability
Measures of Capability
Hope!
Cp and Pp:
What is Possible if your process is perfectly Centered
The Best your process can be
Process Potential (Entitlement)
Reality!
Cpk and Ppk:

The Reality of your process performance
How the process is actually running
Process Capability relative to specification limits
Capability Formulas
S ix tim e s th e s a m p le
S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n
S a m p le M e a n
Th re e tim e s th e s a m p le
S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n
Note: Consider the K value the penalty for being off center
LSL Lower specification limit

USL Upper specification limit
213
Process Capability
SigmaXL Example
There are two
columns of data that
show the length of
camshafts from two
different suppliers.
Check the Normality
of each supplier.
In order to use
Process Capability
as a predictive
statistic, the data
must be Normal for
the tool we are
using in SigmaXL.
SigmaXL also
includes advanced
capabilities for Nonnormal data.
At this point in time we are only attempting to get a baseline number that we can compare to at the
end of problem solving. We are not using it to predict a quality, we want to get a snapshot. DO NOT
try and make your process STABLE BEFORE working on it! Your process is a project because
there is something wrong with it so go figure it out, dont bother playing around with stability.
Ensure that X-Bar & S Charts are selected. SigmaXL will compute the short term StDev using the
within subgroup variation calculated for the X-Bar & S Charts. Note that SigmaXL defaults to using
a pooled StDev to calculate short term StDev.
214
Process Capability
SigmaXL Example (cont.)
599.548 is the process Mean
which falls short of the target
(600) for Supplier 1, and the left
tail of the distribution falls outside
the lower specification limits.
From a practical standpoint what
does this mean? You will have
camshafts that do not meet the
lower specification of 598 mm.
Next we look at the Cp index.
This tells us if we will produce
units within the tolerance limits.
Supplier 1 Cp index is .66 which
tells us they need reduce the
process variation and work on
centering.
Look at the PMM levels? What
does this tell us?
Looking below, 600.06 is the
process Mean for Supplier 2 and
is very close to the target
although both tails of the
distribution fall outside of the
specification limits. The Cpk
index is very similar to Supplier 1
but this infers that we need to
work on reducing variation.
When making a comparison
between Supplier 1 and 2 elative
to Cpk vs Ppk we see that
Supplier 2 process is more prone
to shifting over time. That could
be a risk to be concerned about.
Again, Compare the PPM levels?
What does this tell us? Hint look
at PPM < LSL.
So what do we do. In looking
only at the means you may claim
that Supplier 2 is the best.
Although Supplier 1 has greater
potential as depicted by the Cp
measure and it will likely be
easier to move their Mean than
deal with the variation issues of
Supplier 2. Therefore we will
work with Supplier 1.
215
Process Capability
SigmaXL does
not include
Benchmark Zs
(sigma level) in
Process
Capability. To
compute sigma
level, use the
Process Sigma
Level Calculator
as shown above.
This slide shows Sigma Shift as 0, resulting in sigma levels that match Benchmark Zs. This is
optional. If the Sigma Shift is kept at 1.5 this will be added to the Sigma Level Values.
The overall long term sigma level is 1.86 for Supplier 1. If you enter the short term StDev of .556
the potential Process Sigma Level will be 2.16.
216
Process Capability
The overall Long Term sigma level is 1.4. for Supplier 2. If you enter the short term StDev of 1.0 the
potential Process Sigma Level will be 1.72.
Continuous Variable Caveats

Well this is one way to lie with
StatisticsWhen used as a predictive
model, Capability makes assumptions
about the shape to the data. When
data is Non-normal, the models
assumptions dont work and would be
inappropriate to predict.
Its actually good news to have data
that looks like this because your
project work will be easy!!! Why?
Clearly there is something occurring in
the process that should be fairly
obvious and is causing these very two
distinct distribution to occur. Take a
look at each of the distributions individually and determine what is causing this. DONT fuss or
worry about Normality at this point, hop out to the process and see what is going on.
Here in the Measure Phase stick with observed performance unless your data are Normal. There
are ways to deal with Non-normal data for predictive capability but well look at that once you have
removed some of the Special Causes from the process. Remember here in the Measure Phase we
get a snapshot of what were dealing with, at this point dont worry about predictability, well
eventually get there.
Please note, the Normal Distribution shown in blue has been added manually to illustrate the short
term variation.
217
Process Capability
Capability Steps
When we follow the steps in performing a capability study on Attribute Data we hit a wall at step 6.
Attribute Data is not considered Normal so we will use a different mathematical method to estimate
capability.
We can follow the steps

for calculating capability
for Continuous Data until
we reach the question
about data Normality
Select Output for

Improvement
#1
Verify Customer
Requirements
#2
Validate
Specification
Limits
#3
Collect Sample
Data
#4
Determine
Data Type
(LT or ST)
#5
Check data
for Normality
#6
Calculate
Z-Score, PPM,
Yield, Capability
Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk
#7
Select Output for

Improvement
#1
Notice the difference

when we come to step 5
Verify Customer
Requirements
#2
Validate
Specification
Limits
#3
Collect Sample
Data
#4
Calculate
DPU
#5
Find Z-Score
#6
Convert Z-Score
to Cp & Cpk
#7
218
Process Capability
Z Scores
219
Process Capability
Z Table
In our case we have
to lookup the
proportion for the Z
score of 1.33. This
means that
approximately 9.1%
of our data falls
beyond the upper
spec limit of 54. If
we are interested in
determining parts
per million defective
we would simply
multiply the
proportion .09176 by
one million. In this
case there are
91,760 parts per
million defective.
Attribute Capability
A ttribute data is a lw a y s long term in the shifted condition since it requires so
many samples to g et a g ood estimate with reasonable confidence.
Short term capability is typically reported, so a shifting method will be employed
to estimate short term capability.
You Want to Estimate :

Your Data Is :
ZST
Short Term
Capability
ZLT
Long Term
Capability
ZST
Short Term
Capability
ZLT
Long Term
Capability
Subtract
1.5
Add
1.5
Sigma
Level
Short-Term
DPMO
Long-Term
DPMO
158655.3
691462.5
22750.1
308537.5
1350.0
66807.2
31.7
6209.7
0.3
232.7
0.0
3.4
Stable process can shift and drift by as much as 1.5 Standard Deviations. Want the theory behind
the 1.5Google it! It doesnt matter.
220
Process Capability
Attribute Capability (cont.)
Some people like to
use sigma level
(SigmaXL reports
this as Z-bench),
other like to use Cpk,
Ppk. If you are using
Cpk and Ppk you
can easily translate
that into a Z score or
sigma level by
dividing by 3.
By viewing these formula s you ca n see there is a rela tionship between them.
If we divide our Z short-term by 3 we ca n determine our C pk a nd if we divide
our Z long -term by 3 we ca n determine our Ppk.
Attribute Capability Example
A customer service group is interested in estimating the Capability of

their call center.
A total of 20,000 calls came in during the month but 2,500 of them
dropped before they were answered (the caller hung up).
Results of the call center data set:
Samples = 20,000
Defects = 2,666
They hung up.!!

We will use this example to demonstrate the capability of a customer service call group.
221
Process Capability
Attribute Capability Example (cont.)
Follow these steps to
determine your
process capability.
Remember that,
DPU is Defects per
unit, the total number
of possible errors or
defects that could be
counted in a process
or service. DPU is
calculated by
dividing the total
number of defects by
the number of units
or products.
"Cpk is an index (a
simple number)
which measures how
close a process is
running to its
specification limits,
relative to the natural
variability of the
process.
A Cpk of at least
1.33 is desired and
is about 4 sigma +
with a yield of
99.3790% .
The above Cpk of .
87 is about 2.61
sigma or a 87%
Yield.
If you want to know how that variation will affect the ability of your process to meet customer
requirements (CTQ's), you should use Cpk.
If you just want to know how much variation the process exhibits, a Ppk measurement is fine.
Remember Cpk represents the short-term capability of the process and Ppk represents the longterm capability of the process.
With the 1.5 shift, the above Ppk process capability will be worse than the Cpk short-term capability.
222
Process Capability
Estimate capability for Continuous Data
Estimate capability for Attribute Data
Describe the impact of Non-normal Data on the
analysis presented in this module for continuous
capability
You have now completed Measure Phase Process Capability.
Notes
223
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Measure Phase
The Measure Phase is now complete. Get ready to apply it. This module will help you create a
plan to implement the Measure Phase for your project.
224

Measure Phase Overview - The Goal
Th e g o a l o f th e M e a s u re P h a s e is to :
Define, explore and classify X variables using a variety of tools.

Fishbone Diag rams
X-Y Diag rams
FMEA
Demonstrate a working knowledg e of Basic Statistics to use as a

communication tool and a basis for inference.
Perform Measurement C apability studies on output variables.
Evaluate stability of process and estimate starting point capability.
Six Sigma Behaviors
Being tenacious, courageous

Being rigorous, disciplined
Making data-based decisions
Embracing change & continuous learning
Walk
the
Walk!!
Each player in the Six Sigma process must be

A ROLE MODEL
for the Six Sigma culture
225

Measure Phase Deliverables
Listed here are the Measure Deliverables that each candidate

should present in a Power Point presentation to their mentor and
project champion.
At this point you should understand what is necessary to provide these
deliverables in your presentation.
Team Members (Team Meeting Attendance)

Primary Metric
Secondary Metric(s)
Process Map detailed
FMEA
X-Y Matrix
Basic Statistics on Y
MSA
Stability graphs
Capability Analysis
Project Plan
Issues and Barriers
Measure Phase - The Roadblocks
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address

them before they become problems:
Team members do not have the time to collect data.
Data presented is the best guess by functional managers.
Process participants do not participate in the creation of the X-Y
Matrix, FMEA and Process Map.
It won t all be
smooth sailing..!
You will run into roadblocks throughout your project. Listed here are some common ones that
Belts have to deal with in the Measure Phase.
226
Champion/
Process Owner
DMAIC Roadmap
Identify Problem Area
Define
Determine Appropriate Project Focus

Estimate COPQ
Improve
Analyze
Measure
Establish Team
Assess Stability, Capability, and Measurement Systems
Identify and Prioritize All Xs
Prove/Disprove Impact Xs Have On Problem
Identify, Prioritize, Select Solutions Control or Eliminate Xs Causing Problems
Control
Implement Solutions to Control or Eliminate Xs Causing Problems
Implement Control Plan to Ensure Problem Doesnt Return
The DMAIC Phases Roadmap is a flow chart of what goals should be reached during each phase of
DMAIC. Please take a moment to review.
Measure Phase
This map of the Measure Phase
rollout is more of a guideline than
a rule. The way that you apply
the Six Sigma problem-solving
methods to a project depends on
the type of project your working
with and the environment that
you are working in.
For example in some cases it
may make sense to jump directly
into Measurement System
Analysis studies while you collect
data to characterize other
aspects of the process in
parallel. In other cases it may be
necessary to get a better
understanding of the process
first. Let common sense and
data dictate your path.
Detailed Problem Statement Determined

Identify A ll Process Xs C ausing Problems (Fishbone, Process Map)
S elect the Vital Few Xs C ausing Problems (X-Y Matrix, FMEA )

A ssess Mea surement S ystem
Repeatable &
Reproducible?
Implement C hang es to Make S ystem A cceptable

A ssess S tability (S tatistical C ontrol)
A ssess C a pa bility (Problem with C entering / S pread)
Estimate Process Sig ma Level
Review Prog ress with C hampion
Ready for A nalyz e
227

Measure Phase Checklist
These are questions that
you should be able to
answer in clear,
understandable
language at the end of
this phase.
M e a s u re Q u e s tio n s
Id e n tify critica l X s a n d p o te n tia l fa ilu re m o d es

Is the a s is Process Ma p crea ted?
A re the decision points identified?
W here a re the da ta collection points?
Is there a n analysis of the mea surement system?
W here did you g et the da ta ?
Id e n tify critica l X s a n d p o te n tia l fa ilu re m o d es
Is there a completed X-Y Ma trix?
W ho pa rticipa ted in these a ctivities?
Is there a completed FMEA ?
Ha s the Problem Sta tement chang ed?
Ha ve you identified more C O PQ ?
S ta b ility A s s es s m e n t
is the Voice of the Process sta ble?
If not, ha ve the special causes been acknowledg ed?
C an the g ood sig na ls be incorpora ted into the process?
C an the bad sig nals be removed from the process?
How sta ble can you ma ke the process?
C a p a b ility A s s e s s m e n t
W ha t is the short-term and long -term ca pa bility of the process?
W ha t is the problem, one of centering , spread or some combina tion?
G e n e ra l Q u es tio n s
A re there any issues or ba rriers tha t prevent you from completing this phase?
Do you ha ve adequa te resources to complete the project?
Planning for Action

WHAT
WHO
W H EN
WHY
W H Y N O T
HOW
Id e n tify th e co m p le x ity o f th e p ro ce s s
Fo cu s o n th e p r o b le m s o lv in g p ro ce s s
D e fin e C h a ra cte ris tics o f D a ta
V a lid a te Fin a n cia l B e n e fits
B a la n ce a n d Fo cu s R e s o u rce s
Es ta b lis h p o te n tia l re la tio n s h ip s b e tw e e n v a ria b le s
Q u a n tify ris k o f m e e tin g critica l n e e d s o f C u s to m e r ,
B u s in e s s a n d P e o p le
P re d ict th e R is k o f s u s ta in a b ility
C h a rt a p la n to a cco m p lis h th e d e s ire d s ta te o f th e
cu ltu re
W h a t is y o u r d e fe ct?
W h e n d o e s y o u r d e fe ct o ccu r?
H o w is y o u r d e fe ct m e a s u re d ?
W h a t is y o u r p ro je ct fin a n cia l g o a l (ta rg e t & tim e ) to
re a ch it?
W h a t is y o u r P rim a ry m e tric?
W h a t a re y o u r S e co n d a ry m e trics ?
D e fin e th e a p p ro p ria te e le m e n ts o f w a s te
Over the last decade of deploying Six Sigma it has been found that the parallel application of the
tools and techniques in a real project yields the maximum success for the rapid transfer of
knowledge. For maximum benefit you should apply what has been learned in the Measure Phase
to a Six Sigma project. Use this checklist to assist.
228

Have started to develop a Project Plan to complete the
action items
Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your
business
You have now completed the Measure Phase. Congratulations!
Notes
229
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Welcome to Analyze
Now that we have completed the Measure Phase we are going to jump into the Analyze Phase.
Welcome to Analyze will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
230
Welcome to Analyze
Overview
These are the
deliverables for the
Analyze Phase.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP11
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP22
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP11
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP22
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
C hampion/
Process O wner
Analyze Phase Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
231

Analyze Phase Process Map
Vital Few Xs Identified

State Practical Theories of Vital Few xs Impact on Problem
Translate Practical Theories into Scientific Hypothesis
Select A nalysis Tools to Prove/ Disprove Hypothesis
C ollect Data
Perform Statistical Tests
State Practical C onclusion
Statistically
Sig nificant?
Update FMEA
Practically
Sig nificant?
Y
Root
C ause
Y
N
Identify Root C ause
Ready for Improve and C ontrol
This provides a process look at putting Analyze to work. By the time we complete this phase you
will have a thorough understanding of the various Analyze Phase concepts.
We will build upon the foundational work of the Define and Measure Phases by introducing
techniques to find root causes, then using experimentation and Lean Principles to find solutions to
process problems. Next you will learn techniques for sustaining and maintaining process
performance using control tools and finally placing your process knowledge into a high level process
management tool for controlling and monitoring process performance.
232
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
X Sifting
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with X Sifting determining what the impact of the
inputs to our process are.
233
X Sifting
Overview
The core
fundamentals of
this phase are
Multi-Vari
Analysis and
Classes and
Causes.
We will examine
the meaning of
each of these
and show you
how to apply
them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
M
Muulti-V
lti-Vaa ri
ri AAnnaa ly
lyssis
is
XX SSiftin
iftingg
CCla
la sssseess aa nndd CCaa uusseess
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP11
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP22
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP11
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP22
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Multi-Vari Studies
Define Phase
Measure Phase
Process Map
Possible X s
X-Y Matrix, FMEA, Process Map
The
Themany
manyXXss
when
whenwe
wefirst
firststart
start
(The
(Thetrivial
trivialmany)
many)
XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXX
X XX XXXXX X X
X XX XXXXX X X
XX XX XX X
The
Thequantity
quantityofofXXs
s
when
remaining
we apply
after
leverage
DMAIC
(The vital
few)
Probable X s
The
Thequantity
quantityof
ofXXss
keep
after we
reducing
think as
you
about
workY=
the
f(Xproject
)+e
XXX
In the Define Phase you use tools like Process Mapping to identify all possible Xs. In the
Measure Phase you use tools to help refine all possible Xs like the X-Y Diagram and FMEA.
In the Analyze Phase we start to dis-assemble the data to determine what it tells us. This is the
fun part.
234
X Sifting
Multi-Vari Definition
Multi-Vari Studies is a tool that graphically displays patterns of variation. Multi-Vari Studies are
used to identify possible Xs or families of variation. These families of variation can hide within a
subgroup, between subgroups, or over time.
The Multi-Vari Chart helps in screening factors by using graphical techniques to logically subgroup
discrete Xs (Independent Variables) plotted against a continuous Y (Dependent). By looking at the
pattern of the graphed points, conclusions are drawn from about the largest family of variation.
Multi-Vari Chart can also be used to assess capability, stability and graphical relationships between
Xs and Ys.
The use of a Multi-Vari Chart is to illustrate analysis
of variance data graphically. A picture can be worth
a thousand words, or numbers.
- Multi-Vari Charts are useful in visualizing
two-way interactions.
Multi-Vari Charts reveal information such as:
- Effect of work shift on Ys.
- Impact of specific machinery, or material
on Ys.
- Effect of noise factors on Ys, etc.
Shift Changes
Machinery Variance
Noise
At this point in DMAIC, Multi-Vari Charts are intended to be used as a passive study, but later in the
process they can be used as a graphical representation where factors were intentionally changed.
The only caveat with using SigmaXL to graph the data is that the data must be balanced. Each
source of variation must have the same number of data points across time.
235
X Sifting
Multi-Vari Example
To put Multi-Vari studies in practice follow an example of an injection molding process.

You are probably asking yourself what is Injection Molding? Well basically an injection molding
machine takes hard plastic pellets and melts them into a fluid. This fluid is then injected into a
mold or die, under pressure, to create products, such as piping and computer cases.
Method
Typically, we start with
a data collection sheet
that makes sense
based on our
knowledge of the
process. Then follow
the steps.
Sampling Plans steps:

1. Create Sampling Plan
2. Gather Passive Date
3. Graph Data
4. Check to see if Variation is Exposed

If we only see minor
5. Interpret Results
variation in the
sample, it is time to go
back and collect
No
additional data. When
Is
Gather
Create
Graph
Variation
your data collection
Passive
Sampling
Data
Exposed
Data
represents at least
Plan
80% of the variation
within the
process then you should have enough information to evaluate the graph.
Yes
Interpret
Results
Remember for a Multi-Vari Analysis to work the output must be continuous and the sources
of variation discrete.
236
X Sifting
Sources of Variation
Within unit, between
unit and temporal
are the classic
causes of variation.
A unit can be a
single piece or a
grouping of pieces
depending on
whether they were
created at unique
times.
Multi-Vari Analysis
can be performed on
other processes,
simply identify the
categorical sources
of variation you are
interested in.
W ithin unit or P o s itio n a l
W ithin piece variation related to the geometry of the part.

Variation across a single unit containing many individual parts
such as a wafer containing many computer processors.
Location in a batch process such as plating.
Between unit or C y clica l
Variation among consecutive pieces.

Variation among groups of pieces.
Variation among consecutive batches.
Te m p o r a l or O ver time S hift-to-S hift
Day-to-D ay
W eek-to-W eek
Machine Layout & Variables

In this example there are 4 widgets created with each die cycle. Therefore, a unit is 4 widgets that
were created at that unique time.
M a s te r In je ctio n
P re s s u re
D is ta n ce to ta n k
% O x y g e n
In je ctio n P re s s u re
P e r C a v ity
Flu id Le v e l
#1
D ie
Te m p
#2
A m b ie n t
Te m p
#3
#4
D ie
R e le a s e
An example of Within Unit Variation is measured by differences in the 4 widgets from a single
die cycle. For example, we could measure the wall thickness for each of the 4 widgets.
Between Unit Variation is measured by differences from sequential die cycles. An example of
Between Unit Variation is, comparing the average of wall thickness from die cycle to die cycle.
Temporal Variation is measured over some meaningful time period. For example, we would
compare the average of all the data collected in a time period say the 8 oclock hour to the 10
oclock hour.
237
X Sifting
Sampling Plan
To continue with this
example, the Multi-Vari
sampling plan will be to
gather data for 3 die cycles
on 3 different days for 4
widgets inside the mold.
If you find this initial
sampling plan does not
show the variation of
interest, it will be necessary
to continue sampling, or
make changes to the
sampling plan.
Monday
W ednesday
Die
C ycle
#3
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
Friday
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
C a vity # 2
C a vity # 3
C a vity # 4
Monday
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
W ednesday
Die
C ycle
#3
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
Friday
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
C a vity # 1
C a vity # 2
C a vity # 3
C a vity # 4
Monday
Between-Unit Encoding
Comparing the averages
from each die cycle is
called Between Unit
Variation.
Die
C ycle
#1
C a vity # 1
Within-Unit Encoding
Comparing individual data
points within a die cycle is
Within Unit Variation.
Examples of measurement
could be wall thickness,
diameter or uniformity of
thickness to name a few
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
W ednesday
Die
C ycle
#3
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
Friday
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
C a vity # 1
C a vity # 2
C a vity # 3
C a vity # 4
Monday
Temporal Encoding
Comparing the average
of all the data within a
day and plot 3 time
periods is known as
Temporal Variation.
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
W ednesday
Die
C ycle
#3
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
Friday
Die
C ycle
#1
Die
C ycle
#2
Die
C ycle
#3
C a vity # 1
C a vity # 2
C a vity # 3
C a vity # 4
238
X Sifting
Using Multi-Vari to Narrow Xs
G ather the list of potential Xs and assig n to one of the families of

variation.
This information can be pulled from the X-Y Diag ram from the
Measure Phase.
If an X spans one or more families, assig n % s to the supposed split.
Now lets use the same information from the X-Y Diagram that was created in the Measure Phase. The
following exercise will help you assign one of the variables to the family of variation. If you find yourself
with a variable or (X) then assign percentages to split. Use your best judgment for the splits. Dont
assume that the true Xs causing variation has to come from one in the list.
Step 1 - G raph the data from the process in Multi-V ari form.
Step 2 - Identify the larg est family of variation.
Step 3 - Establish statistical sig nificance throug h the appropriate
statistical testing .
Step 4 - Focus further effort on the Xs associated with the family of
larg est variation.
R e m e m b er th e g o a l is n o t to o n ly
fig u re o u t w h a t it is , b u t w h a t it is n o t!
239
X Sifting
Data Worksheet
Open the workbook
Analyze Datasets.xls and
select the worksheet
MVInjectionMold.
Now create the Multi-Vari
Chart in SigmaXL.
1.Select
SigmaXL>Graphical
Tools>Multi-Vari Options.
Uncheck Standard
Deviation Chart.
2.Click Finish. SigmaXL
will then open the Multi-Vari
Charts dialog box.
3. If the Multi-Vari Options have been previously saved, select SigmaXL>Graphical Tools>MultiVari Charts.
4. Select Diameter as Numeric Response (Y), Unit to Unit as Group Category (X1), and
Temporal as Group Category (X2). Within Unit should not be added as a group category.
SigmaXL will display the Within Unit variation automatically as a vertical bar.
After you create the graph as indicated, take a few minutes to create graphs using a different order.
Always use the graph that shows the variation in the easiest manner to interpret.
Run Multi-Vari
Here is the graph that should have been generated.
240
X Sifting
Identify The Largest Family of Variation
To find an example of
within unit variation,
look at Unit 1 in the
second time period.
Notice the spread of
data is 0.07.
Now lets try and find
between unit variation,
compare the averages
of the units within a
time period. All three
time periods appear
similar so looking at the
first time period it
appears the spread of the data is 0.18 units. To determine temporal variation, compare the
averages between time periods. It appears time period 3 and 2 have a difference of 0.06.
To determine within unit variation, find the unit with the greatest variation like Unit 1 in the second
time period. Notice the spread of data is 0.07. It appears the second unit in the third.
Notice that the shifting from unit to unit is not consistent, but it certainly jumps up and down. The
question at this point should be: Does this graph represent the problem Im working on? Do I see
at least 80% of the variation? Read the units off the Y axis or look in the worksheet. Notice the
spread of the data is 0.22 units. If the usual spread of the data is 0.25 units, then this data set
represents 88% of the usual variation which tells us our sampling plan was sufficient to detect the
problem.
Root Cause Analysis
After the analysis we
now know the
largest source of
variation is occurring
die cycle to die cycle
we can focus our
effort on those Xs
that we suspect
have the greatest
impact. In this case,
the pattern of
variation is not
consistent within the
small scope of data
we gave gathered.
Additional data may
be required or this
process may be
ready for
experimentation.
241
X Sifting
Call Center Example
Lets try another example,
open the worksheet
CallCenter. This
example is a transactional
application of the tool.
In this particular case, a
company with two call
centers wants to compare
two methods of handling
calls at each location at
different times of the day.
One method involves a
team to resolve customer
issues, and the other
method requires a single
subject-matter expert to
handle the call alone.
What is the largest source of variation

Method?
Location?
Time?
Method
242
X Sifting
Call Center Example (cont.)
Is the largest source of variation more or less obvious? Notice the Multi-Vari graph plotted is
dependent on the order in which the variable column names are entered into SigmaXL.
Location
This example is not as easy to draw conclusions because of the source of the data. With the injection
molding process we know we are making the same parts over and over. However, in this example of
a call center, there is no control over the nature of calls coming in, so a single outlier could affect your
judgment.
It is not necessary to force fit any one tool to your project. For transactional projects Multi-Vari may
be difficult to interpret purely graphically. We will re-visit this data set later when working through
Hypothesis Testing.
Time
243
X Sifting
Multi-Vari Exercise
Notes
244
X Sifting
MVA Solution
Do you recall the reason
why Normality is an issue?
Normality is required if you
intend to use the
information as a predictive
tool. Early in the Six
Sigma process there is no
reason to assume that
your data will be Normal.
Remember, if it is not
Normal it usually makes
finding potential causes
easier. Lets work the
problem now.
Check for Normality
First check the data for

Is that
Normality. Use
normal?!
SigmaXL>Process
Capability>Capability
Combination Report
(Individuals). Select Volume as Numeric Data Variable (Y), Set USL to 500. From the generated
report we can see that the P-value is greater than 0.05, therefore the data is considered Normal.
Having a graphical
summary is quite
nice since it
provides a picture
of the data as well
as the summary
statistics.
Histograms and
Descriptive
Statistics is a
powerful tool which
allows you to chick
for Normality.
Notice that the Pvalue in this window
is the same as the
previous.
Notice that even
though the data are
Normal, the distribution is quite wide. If you had a process where you were filling bottles wouldnt
you expect the process to be Normal?
245
X Sifting
MVA Solution (cont.)
Now it is time to
perform the
process capability.
For subgroup size
is enter 12 since
all 12 bottles are
filled at the same
time. Also, use
500 milliliters as
the upper spec
limit in order to
see how bad the
capability was
from a
manufacturers
prospective.
SigmaXL has a template that will allow us to determine the Sigma Level for this process. Select
Process Capability>Basic Process Capability Templates>Process Sigma Level Continuous to
open the template. Using the data from the Process Capability Report, we can find the Sigma
Level.
Is this process is in trouble? The answer is yes, since the Z bench value is negative! That is very
bad. To correct this problem the process has to be set in such a manner that none of the bottles are
ever under filled, while trying to minimize the amount of overfill.
To answer
step three of
this exercise,
it is a
combination
of reducing
variation and
shifting the
Mean. The
Mean cannot
be shifted
however, until
the variation
is reduced
dramatically.
246
X Sifting
MVA Solution (cont.)
The order in which you enter the factors will produce different graphs.
The classical method is to use Within, Between and over-time
(Temporal) order. SigmaXLs Multi-Vari Charts do not require the
lowest level Within category. This will appear automatically as
vertical bars.
The graph shows the variation within a unit (vertical bars) is fairly consistent across all the data.
The variation between units (red lines connecting means) also looks consistent across all the data.
What seems to stand out is the machine may be set up differently from first shift (top row) to second
(bottom row). That should be easy to fix! What is the largest source of variation? Within Unit
Variation is the largest, Temporal is the next largest (and probably easiest to fix) and Between Unit
Variation comes in last.
So to fix this process
your game plan
should be based on
the information in the
Excel file and involve
additional information
you have about the
process.
This example was
based on a real
process where the
nasty culprit was
actually the location
of the in-line scale.
No one wanted to
believe that a high
price scale could be
generating significant
variation.
The in-line scale weighed the bottles and either sent them forward to ship or rejected them to be
topped off. The wind generated by the positive pressure in the room blew across the scale
making the weights recorded fluctuate unacceptably. The filling machine was actually quite good,
there were a few adjustments made once the variation from the scale was fixed. Once the
variation in the data was reduced, they were able to shift the Mean closer to the specification of
500 ml.
247
X Sifting
The injection
molding data
collection sheet
was created to
include:
3 time periods
4 widgets per
die cycle
3 units per time
period
for a total of 36
rows of data. (3
times 4 times 3)
The data sheet is

now balanced
meaning that
there is an equal
number of data
points for each
condition in the
data table and
ready for data to
be entered.
248
X Sifting
Classes of Distributions
By now you are
convinced that
Multi-Vari is a tool
that helps screen
Xs by visualizing
three primary
sources of
variation. At this
point we will review
classes and causes
of distributions that
can also help us
screen Xs to
perform Hypothesis
Tests.
M u lti-V a ri is a to o l th a t h e lp s s cre e n X s b y v is u a liz in g

th re e p rim a ry s o u rce s o f v a ria tio n . La te r w e w ill
p e rfo rm H y p o th e s is Te s ts b a s e d o n o u r fin d in g s .
A t this point we will review classes and causes of distributions that
can also help us screen Xs to perform Hypothesis Tests.
N ormal Distribution
N on-normality 4 Primary C lassifications
1 . Skewness
2 . Multiple Modes
3 . Kurtosis
4 . G ranularity
The Normal (Z) Distribution

Please review the characteristics of the Gaussian curve shown here
Characteristics of Normal Distribution (Gaussian curve) are:

It is considered to be the most important distribution in statistics.
The total area under the curve is equal to 1.
The distribution is mounded and symmetric; it extends indefinitely in
both directions, approaching but never touching the horizontal axis.
All processes will exhibit a normal curve shape if you have pure random
variation (white noise).
The Z distribution has a Mean of 0 and a Standard Deviation of 1.
The Mean divides the area in half, 50%
on one side and 50% on
the other side.
The Mean, Median and
Mode are at the same
data point.
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
249
X Sifting
Normal Distribution
This Normal Curve is
NOT a plot of our
observed data!!!
This theoretical
curve is estimated
based on our datas
Mean and Standard
Deviation. Many
Hypothesis Tests
that are available
assume a Normal
Distribution. If the
assumption is not
satisfied we cannot
use them to infer
anything about the
future.
However, just
because a
distribution of sample data looks Normal does not mean that the variation cannot be reduced and a
new Normal Distribution created.
Non-Normal Distributions
Data may follow Non-normal Distributions for a variety of reason, or there may be multiple sources of
variation causing data that would otherwise be normal to appear not Normal.
1 Skewed
3 Multi-Modal
2 Kurtosis
4 Granularity

Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com

250
X Sifting
Skewness Classification
P o te n tia l C a u s e s o f S k e w n e s s
Le ft S k e w
R ig h t S k e w
60
Frequency
40
Frequency
When a distribution
is not symmetrical,
then its Skewed.
Generally a Skewed
distribution longest
tail points in the
direction of the
Skew.
30
20
10
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
15
20
10
11
1 -1 N a tura l Limits
1 -2 A rtificia l Limits (S orting )
1 -3 Mixtures
1 -4 N on-Linea r Rela tionships
1 -5 Intera ctions
1 -6 N on-Random Pa tterns A cross Time
Mixed Distributions 1-3
M ix e d D is trib u tio n s occur when data comes from multiple sources

that are supposed to be the same yet are not.
M a ch in e A
O p e ra to r A
P a y m e n t M e th o d A
In te rv ie w e r A
S a m p le A
M a ch in e B
O p e ra to r B
P a y m e n t M e th o d B
In te rv ie w e r B
S a m p le B
C o m b in e d
What causes Mixed Distributions? Mixed Distributions occur when data comes from several sources
that are supposed to be the same but are not.
Note that both distributions that formed the combined Skewed Distribution started out as Normal
Distributions.
251
X Sifting
1-4 Non-Linear Relationships
N o n -Lin e a r R e la tio n s h ip s o ccu r w h e n th e X a n d Y s ca le s

a re d ifferen t.
10
M a rg in a l D is tr ib u tio n
o f Y
Just because
your Input (X)
is Normally
Distributed
about a Mean,
the Output (Y)
may not be
Normally
Distributed.
0
0
50
100
o f X
1-5 Interactions
In te r a ctio n s occur when two inputs interact with each other to

have a larg er impact on Y than either would by themselves.
Room Temperature
Interaction Plot for Process Output
Aerosol Hairspray
On
35
Spray
Off
30
25
No Spray
No Fire
With Fire
If you find that two inputs have a large impact on Y but would not effect Y by themselves, this is
called a Interaction.
For instance, if you spray an aerosol can in the direction of a flame what would happen to room
temperature? What do you see regarding these distributions?
252
X Sifting
1-6 Time Relationships / Patterns
Th e d is trib u tio n is d e p e n d e n t o n tim e .
Time
relationships
occur when the
distribution is
dependent on
time, some
examples are
tool wear,
chemical bath
depletion, stock
prices, etc.
o f Y
30
25
20
10
20
30
40
50
Tim e
O
O fte
ftenn sseeeenn w
w hheenn to
tooolin
lingg rreeqquuire
iress w
w aa rm
rm in
ingg uupp , , to
toool l w
w eeaa r,
r,
ch
e
m
ica
l
b
a
th

d
e
p
le
tio
n
s
,
a
m
b
ie
n
t
te
m
p
e
r
a
tu
re

e
ffe
ct
o
n

to
o
lin
ch e m ica l b a th d e p le tio n s , a m b ie n t te m p e r a tu re e ffe ct o n to o lingg ..
Non-Normal Right (Positive) Skewed

Open the
worksheet Distrib
1, select Pos
Skew.
To measure Skewness we use Descriptive Statistics. When looking at a symmetrical distribution,

Skewness will be close to zero. If the distribution is skewed to the left it will have a negative number,
if skewed to the right, it should be positive.
253
X Sifting
Kurtosis 2
K u rto s is re fers to th e s h a p e o f th e ta ils .
Platykurtic are
flat with shorttails.
Leptokurtic
Platykurtic
Different combinations of distributions causes the resulting overall
shapes.
Le p to k u rtic
P e a k e d w ith Lo n g -Ta ils
P la ty k u rtic
Fla t w ith S h o rt-Ta ils
Platykurtic
Multiple Means shifting over time produces a plateau

of the data as the shift exhibits this shift.
Causes:
2-1. Mixtures: (Combined
Data from Multiple
Processes)
Multiple Set-Ups
Multiple Batches
Multiple Machines
Tool Wear (over time)
2-2 Sorting or Selecting:
Scrapping product that falls
outside the spec limits
2-3 Trends or Patterns:
Lack of Independence in
the data (example: tool
wear, chemical bath)
2-4 Non Linear
Relationships
Chemical Systems
Open the worksheet Distrib 1, select Flat. Negative coefficient of Kurtosis indicates Platykurtic
distribution.
254
X Sifting
Leptokurtic
Open the
worksheet
Distrib 1,
select Long Tail.
Positive Kurtosis
value indicates
Leptokurtic
distribution.
Distributions overlaying each other that have very

different variance can cause a Leptokurtic distribution.
Causes:
2-1. Mixtures: (Combined
Data from Multiple
Processes)
Multiple Set-Ups
Multiple Batches
Multiple Machines
Tool Wear (over time)
2-2 Sorting or Selecting:
Scrapping product that falls
outside the spec limits
2-3 Trends or Patterns:
Lack of Independence in the
data (example: tool wear,
chemical bath)
2-4 Non Linear
Relationships
Chemical Systems
Multiple Modes 3
Reasons for Multiple Modes:

3-1 Mixtures of distributions (most likely)
3-2 Lack of independence trends or patterns
3-3 Catastrophic failures (example: testing
voltage on a motor and the motor shorts
out so we get a zero reading etc.)
I ll have mine Ala Mode!!

Multiple Modes have such dramatic combinations of underlying sources that they show distinct
modes. They may have shown as Platykurtic, but were far enough apart to see separation.
Celebrate! These are usually the easiest to identify causes.
255
X Sifting
Bimodal Distributions
This is an example of a Bi-Modal Distribution. Interestingly each peak is actually a Normal
Distribution, but when the data is viewed as a group it is obviously not Normal.
Open the
worksheet
Distrib 1,
select BiModal.
Extreme Bi-Modal (Outliers)

If you see an extreme outlier, it usually has its on cause or own source of variation. Its relatively
easy to isolate the cause by looking on the X Axis of the Histogram. Open the worksheet Distrib
1, select Extreme BiModal.
256
X Sifting
Bi-Modal Multiple Outliers
Open the
worksheet
Distrib 1,
select Multiple
Outliers.
Having multiple
outliers is more
difficult to
correct. This
action typically
means multiple
inputs.
Granular 4
Open the worksheet Distrib 1, select Granular and lets take a moment and notice the P-value in
the Normal Probability Plot, it is definitely smaller than 0.05!
There simply is not enough resolution in the data.
257
X Sifting
Normal Example
Open the worksheet

Distrib 1, select
Normal Dotplot.
Conclusions Regarding Distributions
Hey Honey, I found the key.!

Here is what to conclude regarding distributions.
258
X Sifting
Perform a Multi-Vari Analysis
Interpret and a Multi-Vari Graph
Identify when a Multi-Vari Analysis is applicable
Interpret what Skewed Data looks like
Explain how data distributions become Non-normal
when they are really Normal
You have now completed Analyze Phase X Sifting.
Notes
259
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Inferential Statistics
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Inferential Statistics.
260
Overview
The core
fundamentals of this
phase are Inferential
Statistics, Nature of
Sampling and
Central Limit
Theorem.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W elco
elcom
m e
e to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infere
ferenntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
NN ature of Sampling
ature of Sampling
In
Intro
tro to
to HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
CC entral Limit Theorem

entral Limit Theorem
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN DD PP22
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN NN DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN NN DD PP22
W
W ra
ra pp UUpp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Item
Item ss
Nature of Inference
in fe r e n ce (n.) The act or process of deriving log ical conclusions

from premises known or assumed to be true. The act of reasoning
from factual knowledg e or evidence. 1
1 . Dictionary.com
In fe re n tia l S ta tis tics To draw inferences about the process or

population being studied by modeling patterns of data in a way that
account for randomness and uncertainty in the observations. 2
2 . W ikipedia.com
Putting tthe
he pieces
of
Putting
pieces
of
the the
puz zpuzzle
le
together.!
tog ether.
One objective of Six Sigma is to move from only describing the nature of the data or descriptive
statistics to that of inferring what will happen in the future with our data or Inferential Statistics.
261
5 Step Approach to Inferential Statistics
1 . W h a t d o y o u w a n t to k n o w ?
2 . W h a t to o l w ill g iv e y o u th a t in fo rm a tio n ?
3 . W h a t k in d o f d a ta d o e s th a t to o l re q u ire ?
4 . H o w w ill y o u co lle ct th e d a ta ?
5 . H o w co n fid e n t a re y o u o f y o u r d a ta s u m m a rie s ?
S o many
m any
So
questions.?
questions..!
As with most things you have learned associated with Six Sigma there are defined steps to be
taken.
Types of Error
1 . Erro r in s a m p lin g
Error due to differences among samples drawn at random from the
population (luck of the draw).
This is the only source of error that statistics ca n accommodate.
2 . B ia s in s a m p lin g
Error due to lack of independence among random samples or due to
systematic sampling procedures (heig ht of horse jockeys only).
3 . Erro r in m e a s u re m e n t
Error in the measurement of the samples (MSA / G R&R)
4 . La ck o f m e a s u re m e n t v a lid ity
Error in the measurement does not actually measure what it intends to
measure (placing a probe in the wrong slot measuring temperature
with a thermometer that is just next to a furnace).
Types of error contribute to uncertainty when trying to infer with data.
There are four types of error that are explained above.
262
Population, Sample, Observation
P o p u la tio n
EVERY data point tha t ha s ever been or ever will be g enerated from a g iven
cha racteristic.
S a m p le
A portion (or subset) of the population, either at one time or over time.
X
X
O b s e rv a tio n
X
X
X
A n individual measurement.
Lets just review a few definitions: A population is EVERY data point that has ever been or ever will
be generated from a given characteristic. A sample is a portion (or subset) of the population, either
at one time or over time. An observation is an individual measurement.
Significance
Significance
Practical difference and significance is:
The amount of difference, change or improvement that will be of
practical, economic or technical value to you.
The amount of improvement required to pay for the cost of making the
improvement.
Statistical difference and significance is:

The magnitude of difference or change required to distinguish between
a true difference, change or improvement and one that could have
occurred by chance.
Six Sigma decisions will ultimately have

a return on resource investment (RORI)*
element associated with them.
* RORI includes not only dollars and assets but the time and participation of your teams.
263
The Mission
Mean Shift
Variation
Reduction
Both
Your mission, which you have chosen to accept, is to reduce cycle time, reduce the error rate,
reduce costs, reduce investment, improve service level, improve throughput, reduce lead time,
increase productivity change the output metric of some process, etc
In statistical terms, this translates to the need to move the process Mean and/or reduce the process
Standard Deviation
Youll be making decisions about how to adjust key process input variables based on sample data,
not population data - that means you are taking some risks.
How will you know your key process output variable really changed, and is not just an unlikely
sample? The Central Limit Theorem helps us understand the risk we are taking and is the basis for
using sampling to estimate population parameters.
A Distribution of Sample Means

The Central Limit Theorem says that as the sample size becomes large, this new distribution (the
sample Mean distribution) will form a Normal Distribution, no matter what the shape of the
population distribution of individuals.
Central Limit Theorem 1. Individual values of a

population form some
distribution.
2. A sample will yield a Mean.
3. Another sample will shift the
Mean.
4. At some point the distribution
will become Normal.
264
Sampling DistributionsThe Foundation of Statistics
P o p u la tio n
3
5
2
12
10
1
6
12
5
6
12
14
3
6
11
9
10
10
12
S a mples from the popula tion, ea ch with five observa tions:

S a m p le 1
1
12
9
7
8
7 .4
S a m p le 2
9
8
5
14
10
9 .2
S a m p le 3
2
3
6
11
10
6 .4
In this exa mple, we ha ve ta ken three sa mples out of the

popula tion, ea ch with five observa tions in it. W e computed a
Mea n for ea ch sa mple. N ote tha t the Mea ns a re not the sa me!
W hy not?
W ha t would happen if we kept ta king more samples?
Every statistic derives from a sampling distribution. For instance, if you were to keep taking
samples from the population over and over, a distribution could be formed for calculating Means,
Medians, Mode, Standard Deviations, etc. As you will see the above sample distributions each
have a different statistic. The goal here is to successfully make inferences regarding the statistical
data.
Constructing Sampling Distributions
To demonstrate how sampling distributions work we will create some random data for die rolls.
Create a sample of 1,000 individual rolls of a die that we will store in a variable named
Population. From the population, we will draw five random samples.
265
Sampling Distributions
Select the Die Example worksheet. This sheet has been created using a sample size of 5, 10
and 30 from the Population column.
Let s do something with the data -
Select the Die Example worksheet.
Sampling Error
Now compare the Mean and Standard Deviation of the samples of 5 observations to the
population. What do you see?
Calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation for Population and

Samples 1-5 and compare the sample statistics to the population.
Select Column Format

for easer viewing
Range in Mean 1.2
Range in Stdev 0.59
SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Descriptive Statistics:

Numeric Data Variables (Y): Population, Sample1, Sample 2, Sample 3, Sample 4, Sample 5
266
Sampling Error - Reduced
Calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation for Samples 6-10 and compare the sample statistics
to the population.
Calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation for Samples 6-10 and
compare the sample statistics to the population.
Range in Mean 0.9
Range in Stdev 0.667
With 10 observations, the differences

between samples are now much smaller.
SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Descriptive Statistics:
Numeric Data Variables (Y):, Sample 6, Sample 7, Sample 8, Sample 9, Sample 10
Can you tell what is happening to the Mean and Standard Deviation? When the sample size
increases, the values of the Mean and Standard Deviation decrease.
What do you think would happen if the sample increased? Lets try 30 for a sample size.
267
Sampling Error - Reduced
Do you notice
anything
different?
Look how much
smaller the
range of the
Mean and
Standard
deviations. Did
the sampling
error get
reduced?
Feeling lucky?!
Now instead of looking at the effect of sample size on error, we will create a sampling distribution
of averages. Follow along to generate your own random data. Rename the column headings to
Roll 1, Roll 2, , Roll 10.
268
The commands shown above will create new columns that are now averages from the columns of
random population data. We have 1000 averages of sample size 5 and 1000 averages of sample
size 10.
In SigmaXL follow the above commands. The Histogram being generated makes it easy to see
what happened when the sample size was increased.
269
Different Distributions
Observations
Answers 1. The Center remains the same.

2. The variation decreases.
3. The shape of the distribution changes - it tending to Normal.
The Mean of the sample Mean

distribution:
The Standard Deviation of the

sample Mean distribution, also
known as the Standard Error.
Good news: the Mean of the sample

Mean distribution is the Mean of the
population.
Better news: I can reduce my

uncertainty about the population
Mean by increasing my sample size n.
Central Limit Theorem

If all possible random samples, each of size n, are taken from any
population with a Mean and Standard Deviation , the distribution
of sample Means will:
have a Mean
Everything we have gone

through with sampling error
and sampling distributions
was leading up to the
Central Limit Theorem.
have a Std Dev

and be Normally Distributed when the parent population is
Normally Distributed or will be approximately Normal for samples
of size 30 or more when the parent population is not Normally
Distributed.
This improves with samples of larger size.
Bigger is Better!
270
So What?
Recall that 95% of Normally Distributed data is within 2 Standard Deviations from the Mean.
Therefore, the probability is 95% that my sample Mean is within 2 standard errors of the true
population Mean.
So how does this theorem help me

understand the risk I am taking when I use
sample data, instead of population data?
A Practical Example
Le t s s a y y o u r p ro je ct is to re d u ce th e s e tu p tim e fo r a
la rg e ca s tin g :
Based on a sample of 2 0 setups, you learn that your baseline
averag e is 4 5 minutes, with a Standard Deviation of 1 0
minutes.
Because this is just a sample, the 4 5 minute averag e is just an
estimate of the true averag e.
Using the central limit theorem, there is 9 5 % probability that
the true averag e is somewhere between 4 0 .5 and 4 9 .5
minutes.
Therefore, dont g et too excited if you made a process chang e
that resulted in a reduction of only 2 minutes.
What is the likelihood of getting a sample with a 2 second difference? This could be caused either
by implementing changes or could be a result of random sampling variation, sampling error. The
95% confidence interval exceeds the 2 second difference (delta) seen as a result. What is the delta
caused from? This could be a true difference in performance or random sampling error. This is why
you look further than only relying on point estimators.
271
Sample Size and the Mean
W h e n ta k in g a s a m p le w e h a v e o n ly e s tim a te d th e
tru e M e a n :
A ll we know is tha t the true Mean lies somewhere within the
theoretical distribution of sample Means or the t-d istribution which are
ana lyz ed using t-tests.
T-tests measure the sig nificance of differences between Means.
Th e o re tica l d is trib u tio n o f

s a m p le M e a n s fo r n = 2
Th e o re tica l d is trib u tio n o f

s a m p le M e a n s fo r n = 1 0
D is trib u tio n o f
in d iv id u a ls in th e
p o p u la tio n
Standard Error of the Mean
Th e S ta n d a r d D e v ia tio n fo r th e d is trib u tio n o f M e a n s is

ca lle d th e s ta n d a rd e rro r o f th e M e a n a n d is d e fin e d a s :
This formula shows tha t the Mea n is more sta ble tha n a sing le
observa tion by a fa ctor of the squa re root of the sa mple siz e.
272
Standard Error
Standard Error
Standard Error approaches zero at about 30 samples.
10
20
30
Sample Size
When comparing standard error with sample size, the rate of change in the standard error
approaches zero at about 30 samples. This is why a sample size of 30 comes up often in
discussions on sample size.
This is the point at which the t and the Z distributions become nearly equivalent. If you look at a
Z table and a t table to compare Z=1.96 to t at 0.975 as sample approaches infinite degrees of
freedom they are equal.
273
Explain the term Inferential Statistics
Explain the Central Limit Theorem
Describe what impact sample size has on your
estimates of population parameters
Explain Standard Error
You have now completed Analyze Phase Inferential Statistics.
Notes
274
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Introduction to Hypothesis Testing
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Introduction to Hypothesis Testing.
275

Overview
The core
phase are
Hypothesis Testing,
Tests for Central
Tendency, Tests for
Variance and
ANOVA.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W elco
elcom
m e
e to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infere
ferenntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN DD PP11
HHyyppooth
thes
esis
is Tes
Testin
tingg PPuurp
rpoossee
Tes
Tests
ts fo
for
r CCen
entra
tra l Ten
l Tendden
ency
cy
Tes
Tests
ts fo
for V
r Vaa ria
ria nnce
ce
AANN OO VVAA
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN DD PP22
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN NN DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
thes
esis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg NN NN DD PP22
W
W ra
ra pp UUpp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Item
Item ss
Six Sigma Goals and Hypothesis Testing

Our goal is to improve our Process Capability, this translates to the need to move the process Mean
(or proportion) and reduce the Standard Deviation.
Because it is too expensive or too impractical (not to mention theoretically impossible) to
collect population data, we will make decisions based on sample data.
Because we are dealing with sample data, there is some uncertainty about the true
population parameters.
Hypothesis Testing helps us make fact-based decisions about whether there are different population
parameters or that the differences are just due to expected sample variation.
276

Purpose of Hypothesis Testing
The purpose of appropriate Hypothesis Testing is to integrate the Voice of the Process with the
Voice of the Business to make data-based decisions to resolve problems.
Hypothesis Testing can help avoid high costs of experimental efforts by using existing data. This
can be likened to:
Local store costs versus mini bar expenses.
There may be a need to eventually use experimentation, but careful data analysis can
indicate a direction for experimentation if necessary.
The probability of occurrence is based on a pre-determined statistical confidence.
Decisions are based on:
Beliefs (past experience)
Preferences (current needs)
Evidence (statistical data)
Risk (acceptable level of failure)
Relax, its just a

hypothesis test!!
The Basic Concept for Hypothesis Tests
Recall from the discussion on classes and cause of distributions that a data set may seem Normal,
yet still be made up of multiple distributions.
Hypothesis Testing can help establish a statistical difference between factors from different
distributions.
0.8
0.7
0.6
freq
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-3
-2
-1
Did my sample come from this population? Or this? Or this?

Because of not having the capability to test an entire population, having to use a sample is the
closest we can get to the population. Since we are using sample data and not the entire
population we need to have methods what will allow us to infer the sample if a fair representation
of then population.
When we use a proper sample size, Hypothesis Testing gives us a way to detect the likelihood
that a sample came from a particular distribution. Sometimes the questions can be: Did our
sample come from a population with a mean of 100? Is our sample variance significantly different
than the variance of the population? Is it different from a target?
277

Significant Difference
A re the two distributions sig nifica ntly different from ea ch

other? How sure a re we of our decision?
How do the number of observa tions a ffect our confidence in
detecting population Mea n?
1
S a m p le 1
2
S a m p le 2
Do you see a difference between Sample 1 and Sample 2? There may be a real difference
between the samples shown; however, we may not be able to determine a statistical difference. Our
confidence is established statistically which has an effect on the necessary sample size. Our ability
to detect a difference is directly linked to sample size and in turn whether we practically care about
such a small difference.
Detecting Significance
S ta tis tics p ro v id e a m e th o d o lo g y to d e te ct d iffe re n ce s .

Examples mig ht include differences in suppliers, shifts or
equipment.
Two types of sig nificant differences occur and must be well
understood, p r a ctica l and s ta tis tica l.
Failure to tie these two differences tog ether is one of the most
common errors in statistics.
H O : Th e s k y is n o t fa llin g .
H A : Th e s k y is fa llin g .
We will discuss the difference between practical and statistical throughout this session. We can
affect the outcome of a statistical test simply by changing the sample size.
278

Practical vs. Statistical
P r a ctica l D iffe r e n ce : The difference which results in an

improvement of practical or economic value to the company.
Example, an improvement in yield from 9 6 to 9 9 percent.
S ta tis tica l D iffe r e n ce : A difference or chang e to the process that

probably (with some defined deg ree of confidence) did not happen
by chance.
Examples mig ht include differences in suppliers, markets or servers.
W e w ill s e e th a t it is p o s s ib le to re a liz e a s ta tis tica lly

s ig n ifica n t d iffere n ce w ith o u t re a liz in g a p ra ctica lly
s ig n ifica n t d iffere n ce .
Lets take a moment to explore the concept of Practical Differences versus Statistical Differences.
Detecting Significance
During the Measure Phase, it is important that the nature
of the problem be well understood.
M e a n S h ift
In understanding the problem, the practical difference to

be achieved must match the statistical difference.
The difference d can be either a change in the Mean or in
the variance.
Detection of a difference is then accomplished using
statistical Hypothesis Testing.
An important concept to understand is the process of
detecting a significant change. How much of a shift in the
Mean will offset the cost in making a change to the
process?
V a ria tio n
R e d u ctio n
This is not necessarily the full shift from the Business

Case of your project. Realistically, how small or how large
a delta is required? The larger the delta, the smaller the
necessary sample will be because there will be a very
small overlap of the distributions. The smaller the delta is, the larger the sample size has to be to be
able to detect a statistical difference.
279

Hypothesis Testing
A Hypothesis Test is an a priori theory relating to differences between variables. That means we
begin by saying either this will happen or that will happen. Then we proceed with a statistical test or
Hypothesis Test to prove or disprove on or the other.
A Hypothesis Test converts the practical problem into a statistical problem. Since relatively small
sample sizes are used to estimate population parameters, there is always a chance of collecting a
non-representative sample. Therefore we use Inferential statistics to help us estimate the
probability of getting a non-representative sample.
DICE Example
You have rolled dice before havent you? You know dice that you would find in a board game or in
Las Vegas. Well assume that we suspect a single die is Fixed. Meaning it has been altered in
some form or fashion to make a certain number appear more often that it rightfully should.
Consider the example on how we would go about determining if in fact a die was loaded.
If we threw the die five times and got five ones, what would you conclude? How sure can you be?
The probability of getting just a single one. The probability of getting five ones.
W e could throw it a number of times and track how many each face
occurred. W ith a standard die, we would expect each face to occ ur 1 / 6 or
1 6 .6 7 % of the time.
If we threw the die 5 times and g ot 5 ones, what would you conclude? How
sure can you be?
Pr (1 one) = 0 .1 6 6 7
Pr (5 ones) = (0 .1 6 6 7 )5 = 0 .0 0 0 1 3
There are approximately 1 .3 chances out of 1 0 0 0 that we could ha ve g otten

5 ones with a standard die.
Therefore, we would sa y we are willing to take a 0 .1 % chance of being
wrong about our hypothesis that the die was loaded since the results do not
come close to our predicted outcome.
280

Hypothesis Testing
When it comes to Hypothesis
Testing, you must look at three
focus points to help validate
your claim. These points are
Type I, Type II and Sample
Size.
DECISIONS
Statistical Hypotheses
A hypothesis is a predetermined theory about the nature of, or relationships between variables.
Statistical tests can prove (with a certain degree of confidence) that a relationship exists. With
Hypothesis Testing the primary assumption is that the null hypothesis is true. Therefore statistically
you can only reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. The Null Hypothesis is always the default
assumption.
If the null is rejected, this means that you have data that supports the alternative hypothesis.
Shortly well look at how P-values help us understand the relationships.
Two alternatives
Ho
the null hypothesis
Ha
the alternative hypothesis
P-value > 0.05

P-value < 0.05
Ho = no difference or relationship
Ha = is a difference or relationship
Making a decision does not FIX a problem,

taking action does.
281

Steps to Statistical Hypothesis Testing
There are six steps to Hypothesis Testing:
1. State the Practical Problem.
2. State the Statistical Problem.
3. Select the appropriate statistical test and risk levels. Your alpha may change depending on the
problem at hand. An alpha of .05 is common in most manufacturing. In transactional projects, an
alpha of 0.10 is common when dealing with human behavior. Being 90% confident that a change to
a sale procedure will produce results is most likely a good approach. A not-so-common alpha is
0.01. This is only used when it is necessary to make the null hypothesis very difficult to reject.
4. Establish the Sample Size required to detect the difference.
5. State the Statistical Solution.
6. State the Practical Solution.
Noooot THAT practical

solution!!
282

How Likely is Unlikely?
Any differences between observed data and claims made under H0 may be real or due to chance.
Hypothesis Tests determine the probabilities of these differences occurring solely due to chance and
call them P-values.
The a level of a test (level of significance) represents the yardstick against which p-values are
measured and H0 is rejected if the P-value is less than the alpha level.
The most commonly used a levels are 5%, 10% and 1%.
Hypothesis Testing Risk
The alpha risk or Type 1 Error (generally called the Producers Risk) is the probability that we
could be wrong in saying that something is different. It is an assessment of the likelihood that
the observed difference could have occurred by random chance. Alpha is the primary decisionmaking tool of most statistical tests.
A ctu a l C o n d itio n s
Alpha risk can also be

explained as: The risk with
implementing a change when
you should not.
Alpha risk is typically lower
than beta risk because you are
more hesitant to make a
mistake about claiming the
significance of an X (and
therefore spending money) as
compared to overlooking an X
(which is never revealed).
N ot Different
(H o is True)
N ot Different
(Fa il to Reject Ho)
S ta tis tica l
C o n clu s io n s
Different
(Reject Ho)
Different
(H o is Fa lse)
C orrect
Decision
Type II
Error
Type 1
Error
C orrect
Decision
There of two types of error Type I with an associated risk equal to alpha (the first letter in the
Greek alphabet), and of course named the other one Type II with an associated risk equal to beta.
The formula reads: alpha is equal to the probability of making a Type 1 error, or alpha is equal to
the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.
283

Alpha Risk
A lp h a ( ) ris k s a re e x p re s s e d re la tiv e to a re fe re n ce
d is trib u tio n .
D is trib u tio n s in clu d e :
t-d is tr ib u tio n
z -d is tr ib u tio n
Th
Thee aa -le
-levveel l is
is rreeppre
resseennte
tedd bbyy
th
thee clo
clouuddeedd aa re
reaa ss..
2 - d is tr ib u tio n
SSaa m
m pple
le re
ressuults
lts in
in th
this
is aa re
reaa
le
leaa dd to
to re
reje
jectio
ctionn oof f H
H 00..
F-d is tr ib u tio n
R e g io n
o f
DO UBT
R e g io n
o f
DO UBT
A cce p t a s ch a n ce d iffe re n ce s
Hypothesis Testing Risk

The beta risk or Type 2 Error (also called the Consumers Risk) is the probability that we could
be wrong in saying that two or more things are the same when, in fact, they are different.
A ctu a l C o n d itio n s
N ot Different
(H o is True)
N ot Different
(Fail to Reject Ho)
S ta tis tica l
C o n clu s io n s
Different
(Reject Ho)
Different
(H o is False)
C orrect
Decision
Type II
Error
Type 1
Error
C orrect
Decision
Another way to describe beta risk is failing to recognize an improvement. Chances are the
sample size was inappropriate or the data was imprecise and/or inaccurate.
Reading the formula: Beta is equal to the probability of making a Type 2 error.
Or: Beta is equal to the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis given that the null
hypothesis is false.
284

Beta Risk
Beta and sample
size are very
closely related.
When calculating
Sample size in
SigmaXL, we
always enter the
power of the
test which is one
minus beta. In
doing so, we are
establishing a
sample size that
will allow the
proper overlap of
distributions.
Beta Risk is the probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis

when a difference exists.
D is trib u tio n if H 0 is
tru e
R e je ct H 0
= P r(Ty p e 1 e rr o r)
= 0 .0 5
H 0 value
A cce p t H 0
= P r(Ty p e II e rro r)
D is trib u tio n if H a is
tru e
CCritica
ritical l vvaalu
luee oof f
te
tesst t ssta
tatis
tistic
tic
Distinguishing between Two Samples

Recall from the Central Limit Theorem
as the number of individual
observations increase the Standard
Error decreases.
In this example when n=2 we cannot
distinguish the difference between the
Means (> 5% overlap, P-value > 0.05).
Theoretical Distribution
of Means
When n = 2
=5
S=1
When n=30, we can distinguish

between the Means (< 5% overlap, Pvalue < 0.05) There is a significant
difference.
Theoretical Distribution
of Means
When n = 30
=5
S=1
285

Delta SigmaThe Ratio between and S
Delta () is the size of the difference between
two Means or one Mean and a target value.
Sigma (S) is the sample Standard Deviation of
the distribution of individuals of one or both of
the samples under question.
Large Delta
When /& S is large, we dont need statistics

because the differences are so large.
If the variance of the data is large, it is difficult
to establish differences. We need larger
sample sizes to reduce uncertainty.
Large S
We want to be 95% confident in all of our estimates!

All samples are estimates of the population. All statistics based on samples are estimates of the
equivalent population parameters. All estimates could be wrong!
Typical Questions on Sampling

These are typical questions you will experience or hear during sampling. The most common answer
is It depends.. Primarily because someone could say a sample of 30 is perfect where that may
actually be too many. Point is you dont know what the right sample is without the test.
Question:
Answer:
How many samples should we take?
Well, that depends on the size of your delta and

Standard Deviation .
Question:
How should we conduct the sampling?
Answer:
Well, that depends on what you want to know .
Question:
Was the sample we took large enough?
Answer:
Well, that depends on the size of your delta and

Standard Deviation .
Question:
Answer:
Should we take some more samples just to be sure?

No, not if you took the correct number of samples in the
first place!
286

The Perfect Sample Size
The minimum sample size
required to provide exactly 5%
overlap (risk). In order to
distinguish the Delta.
Note: If you are working with nonNormal Data, multiply your
calculated sample size by 1.1.
40
40
50
60
70
50
60
70
P o p u la tio n
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Continuous Data

Here is a Hypothesis Testing roadmap for Continuous Data. This is a great reference tool while you
are conducting Hypothesis Tests.
287

Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Continuous Data
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Attribute Data
288

Common Pitfalls to Avoid
While using Hypothesis Testing the following facts should be borne

in mind at the conclusion stage:
The decision is about Ho and NOT Ha.
The conclusion statement is whether the contention of Ha was upheld.
The null hypothesis (Ho) is on trial.
When a decision has been made:
Nothing has been proved.
It is just a decision.
All decisions can lead to errors (Types I and II).
If the decision is to Reject Ho, then the conclusion should read
There is sufficient evidence at the level of significance to show that
state the alternative hypothesis Ha.
If the decision is to Fail to Reject Ho, then the conclusion should read
There isn t sufficient evidence at the level of significance to show
that state the alternative hypothesis.
Notes
289

Articulate the purpose of Hypothesis Testing
Explain the concepts of the Central Tendency
Be familiar with the types of Hypothesis Tests
You have now completed Analyze Phase Introduction to Hypothesis Testing.
Notes
290
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1.
291

Overview
The core
phase are
Hypothesis Testing,
Tests for Central
Tendency, Tests for
Variance and
ANOVA.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
SSaa m
mpple
le SSiz
izee
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP11
Te
Tesstin
tingg M
Mea
ea nnss
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
ND
D PP22
AAnnaa ly
ly zzin
ingg RReessuults
lts
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP11
H
H yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
ND
D PP22
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Test of Means (t-tests)

T-tests are used to compare a Mean against a target and to compare Means from two different
samples and to compare paired data. When comparing multiple Means it is inappropriate to use a ttest. Analysis of variance or ANOVA is used when it is necessary to compare more than 2 Means.
They dont look the

same to me!!
292

1 Sample t
Here we are looking for the region in which we can be 95% sure our true population Mean will lie.
This is based on a calculated average, Standard Deviation, number of trials and a given alpha risk
of .05.
In order for the Mean
of the sample to be
considered not
significantly different
than the target, the
target must fall within
the confidence
interval of the sample
Mean.
1 Sample t-test Sample Size

One common pitfall in
statistics is not understanding
what the proper sample size
Ta rg e t
should be. If you look at the
P o p u la tio n
graphic, the question is: Is
there a difference between my
X
C a n n o t te ll th e
n= 2
X
X
d iffe re n ce
XX
process Mean and the desired
X
X
X
b e tw e e n th e s a m p le
X X X
target. If we had population
X
X X
a n d th e ta rg e t.
data, it would be very easy
n = 3 0 C a n te ll th e
X
no they are not the same, but
d iffe re n ce
X
b e tw e e n th e s a m p le
XX
they may be within an
X X
a n d th e ta rg e t.
X XX
acceptable tolerance (or
specification window). If we
S
SE Mean =
took a sample of 2 can we tell
n
a difference? No, because the
spread of the distribution of averages from samples of 2 will create too much uncertainty and make it
very difficult to statistically say there is a difference.
T
If you remember from earlier, 95% of the area under the curve of a Normal Distribution falls within
plus or minus 2 Standard Deviations. Confidence intervals are based on your selected alpha level, so
if you selected an alpha of 5%, then the confidence interval would be 95% which is roughly plus or
minus 2 Standard Deviations. Using your eye to guesstimate you can see that the target value falls
within plus or minus 2 Standard Deviations of the sampling distribution of sample size 2.
If you used a sample of 30, could you tell if the target was different? Just using your eye it appears
that the target is outside the 95% confidence interval of the Mean. Luckily, SigmaXL makes this very
easy
293

Sample Size
Instead of going
through the dreadful
hand calculations of
sample size we will
use SigmaXL. Two
of the main fields must
be filled in and one
selected as the Solve
For. If you want to
know the sample size,
you must enter the
difference, which is
the shift that must be
detected. It is
common to state the
difference in terms of
generic Standard
Deviations when you
do not have an estimate for the Standard Deviation of the process. For example, if you want to
detect a shift of 1.5 Standard Deviations enter that in difference and enter 1 for Standard Deviation.
If you knew the Standard Deviation and it was 0.8, then enter it for Standard Deviation and 1.2 for
the difference (which is a 1.5 Standard Deviation shift in terms of real values).
If you are unsure of the desired difference, or in many cases simply get stuck with a sample size
that you didnt have a lot of control over, SigmaXL will tell you how much of a difference can be
detected. You as a practitioner must be careful when drawing Practical Conclusions because it is
possible to have statistical significance without practical significance. In other words - do a reality
check. SigmaXL has made it easy to see an assortment of sample sizes and differences.
Try the example shown.
Notice that as the sample
size increases, there is
not as big an effect on the
difference. If it was only
necessary to see a
difference of 0.9, why
bother taking any more
samples than 15? The
Standard Deviation
entered has an effect on
the difference calculated.
Take a few moments and
explore different Standard
Deviation sizes in
SigmaXL to see their
effect on difference.
294

1-Sample t Example
1 . P ra ctica l P ro b le m :
W e are considering chang ing suppliers for a part that we currently
purchase from a supplier that charg es us a premium for the hardening
process.
The proposed new supplier has provided us with a sample of their
product. They have stated that they can maintain a g iven charac teristic
of 5 on their product.
W e want to test the samples and determine if their claim is accurate.
2 . S ta tis tica l P ro b le m :
H o: N .S . = 5
H a : N .S. 5
3 . 1 -s a m p le t-te s t (p o p u la tio n S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n u n k n o w n ,
co m p a rin g to ta rg e t).
= 0 .0 5 = 0 .1 0
Lets now try a 1-sample t example.
Step 1: Take a moment and review the practical problem
Step 2: The Statistical Problem is: The null hypothesis is the Mean of the new supplier is equal to
5. The alternative hypothesis is the Mean of the new supplier is not equal to 5. This is considered a
2-tailed test if youve heard that terminology before.
Step 3: Our selected alpha level is 0.05 and beta is 0.10.
295

Hypothesis Testing
Follow along in
SigmaXL, as you can
see, we will be able to
detect a difference of
1.24 with the sample of
9.
If this was not good
enough, you would need
to request additional
samples.
This means we will

be able to detect a
difference of only
1.24 if the
population has a
Standard Deviation
of 1 unit.
Example: Follow the Road Map

Now refer to the road map for Hypothesis Testing, you must first check for Normality. In SigmaXL
select Graphical Tools>Normal Probability Plots. For the Numeric Data Variable (Y) doubleclick on Value in the left-hand box. Once this is complete select OK.
Since the P-value is greater than 0.05 we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the data are Normal.
296

1-Sample t Example
Perform the one sample ttest. In SigmaXL select
Statistical Tools>1 Sample
t-Test & Confidence
Intervals. From the lefthand box select Values
and click Numeric Data
Variable (Y) >> .
SigmaXL provides a
selection for the alternative
hypothesis. We find the
default is not equal to,
which corresponds to our
hypothesis. If your
alternative hypothesis was
a greater than or less than,
you would have to change
the default.
Shown here is the SigmaXL result for the 1-Sample t-test.
SigmaXL does not include graphical views of the Null Hypothesis.
297

Evaluating the Results
S in ce th e P -v a lu e o f 0 .0 3 4 is le s s th a n 0 .0 5 , re je ct th e n u ll
h y p o th e s is .
B a s e d o n th e s a m p le s g iv e n th e r e is a d iffe r e n ce b e tw e e n th e
a v e ra g e o f th e s a m p le a n d th e d e s ire d ta rg e t.
Ho
6 . S ta te P ra ctica l C o n clu s io n s
Th e n e w s u p p lie r s cla im th a t th e y ca n m e e t th e ta rg e t
o f 5 fo r th e h a rd n e s s is n o t co rre ct.
Manual Calculation of 1- Sample t
Le t s co m p a re th e m a n u a l ca lcu la tio n s to w h a t th e
co m p u te r ca lcu la te s .
C a lcu la te t-s ta tis tic fro m d a ta :
t=
X Target 4.79 5.00

=
= 2.56
s
0.247
n
9
D e te rm in e critica l t-v a lu e fro m t-ta b le in re fe re n ce

s e ctio n .
W h e n th e a lte rn a tiv e h y p o th e s is h a s a n o t e q u a l
s ig n , it is a tw o -s id e d te s t.
S p lit th e in h a lf a n d re a d fro m th e 0 .9 7 5 co lu m n
in th e t-ta b le fo r n -1 (9 - 1 ) d e g re e s o f fre e d o m .
Here are the manual calculations of the 1-sample t, verify that SigmaXL is correct.
298

Manual Calculation of 1- Sample t
If the calculated t-value lies anywhere in the critical regions reject the null hypothesis.
T - Distribution
degrees of
freedom
1
2
3
4
5
.600
0.325
0.289
0.277
0.271
0.267
.700
0.727
0.617
0.584
0.569
0.559
.800
1.376
1.061
0.978
0.941
0.920
.900
3.078
1.886
1.638
1.533
1.476
.950
6.314
2.920
2.353
2.132
2.015
.975
12.706
4.303
3.182
2.776
2.571
.990
31.821
6.965
4.541
3.747
3.365
.995
63.657
9.925
5.841
4.604
4.032
6
7
8
9
10
0.265
0.263
0.262
0.261
0.260
0.553
0.549
0.546
0.543
0.542
0.906
0.896
0.889
0.883
0.879
1.440
1.415
1.397
1.383
1.372
1.943
1.895
1.860
1.833
1.812
2.447
2.365
2.306
2.262
2.228
3.143
2.998
2.896
2.821
2.764
3.707
3.499
3.355
3.250
3.169
-2.56
-2.306
2.306
/2 =.025
/2=.025
The data here supports the alternative
0
Critical Regions
hypothesis that the estimate for the

Mean of the population is not 5.0.
Confidence Intervals for Two-Sided t-test

Here is the formula
for the confidence
interval. Notice we
get the same
results as
SigmaXL.
Th e fo rm u la fo r a tw o -s id e d t-te s t is :
s
s
X + t /2,n 1
n
n
or
X t /2,n 1
X t crit SE mean = 4.788 2.306 * .0824

4.5989 to 4.9789
4.5989
X
4.7889
4.9789
Ho
299

1-Sample t Exercise
Notes
300

1-Sample t Exercise: Solution
Since we do not know the
population Standard
Deviation, we will use the
1 sample t-test to
determine if we are at
target.
Select the RM Suppliers Worksheet.
Depending on the test you are running you may need to change Ha (Not Equal To, Less Than, or
Greater Than). Also ensure your desired Confidence Level is set.
301

1-Sample t Exercise: Solution (cont.)
Because the null hypothesis value is within the confidence level, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis and accept the equipment is running at the target of 32.0. Also, as you can see, the Pvalue is 0.201. Because it is above 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis so we accept the
equipment is giving product at a target of 32.0 ppm VOC.
Reject or Accept?
30.832 32.0
37.251
302

Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
2 Sample t-test
Notice the
difference in the
hypothesis for
two-tailed vs.
one-tailed test.
This terminology
is only used to
know which
column to look
down in the ttable.
303

Sample Size
Instead of going through the dreadful hand calculations of sample size we will use SigmaXL.
Three fields must be filled in and one left blank in the sample size window. SigmaXL will solve for
the third. If you want to know the sample size, you must enter the difference, which is the shift that
must be detected. It is common to state the difference in terms of generic Standard Deviations
when you do not have an estimate for the Standard Deviation of the process. For example, if you
want to detect a shift of 1.5 Standard Deviations enter that in difference and enter 1 for Standard
Deviation. If you knew the Standard Deviation and it was 0.8, then enter it for Standard Deviation
and 1.2 for the difference (which is a 1.5 Standard Deviation shift in terms of real values).
If you are unsure of the desired difference, or in many cases simply get stuck with a sample size
that you didnt have a lot of control over, SigmaXL will tell you how much of a difference can be
detected. You as a practitioner must be careful when drawing Practical Conclusions because it is
possible to have statistical significance without practical significance. In other words - do a reality
check. SigmaXL has made it easy to see an assortment of sample sizes and differences. Try the
example shown.
As you can see we used the same
command here just as in the 1-sample t.
Do you think the results are different?
Correct, the results are different.
304

2-Sample t Example
Over the next several
lesson pages we will
explore an example
for a 2-Sample t-test.
Step 1. Read
Practical Problem
Step 2. The null
hypothesis is the
Mean of BTU.In for
damper 1 is equal to
the Mean of BTU.In
for damper 2.
The alternative
hypothesis is the
Means are not equal.
Step 3. We will use
the 2-Sample t-test
since the population
Standard Deviations
are unknown.
No, not that kind of damper!!
Now in Step 4. Open the worksheet: Furnace

How is the data coded?
305

2-Sample t Example
We will unstack the data in BTU.In by Damper.
Notice the unstacked data for each damper. WE NOW HAVE TWO COLUMNS.
306

2-Sample t Example
Now let us perform a 2 Sample t Example. In SigmaXL select Statistical Tools>Power & Sample
Size Calculators> 2 Sample t-Test Calculator.
For the field Sample Sizes: enter 40. You may then use SigmaXLs Recall Last Dialog
function to repeat the last calculation. Now enter a Sample Size of 50, because our data set has
unequal sample sizes which is not uncommon. The smallest difference that can be detected is
based on the smallest sample size, so in this case it is: 0.734.
Example: Follow the Roadmap
307

Normality Test Is the Data Normal?
Is that normal?!
The data is considered Normal since the P-value is greater than 0.05.
Or that?!
This is the Normality Plot for damper 2. Is the data Normal? It is Normal, continuing down the
roadmap
308

Test of Equal Variance (Bartletts Test)
In SigmaXL select Statistical Tools>2 Sample Comparison Tests.
The F-test P-value of 0.5578 indicates that there is no statistically significant difference in variance.
For this example we will only focus on the Test for Equal Variances portion of the 2 Sample
Comparison Test Results.
309

2 Sample t-test Equal Variance
Lets first view this data graphically with a Box Plot.
Box Plot
The Box Plots do not show much of a difference between the dampers.
310

3 Sample t-Test
Lets continue along the
roadmap Perform the 2Sample t-test; be sure to check
the box Assume equal
variances.
SigmaXL Results
Take a moment and review the SigmaXL results.
311

2 Sample t-Test: Solution
To unstack the data follow the steps here. This will generate two new columns of data shown on the
next page
312

By unstacking the data we
how have the Clor.Lev data
separated by the distributor it
came from. Now lets move
on to trying to determine
correct sample size.
Select SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Power & Sample Size Calculators>2 Sample t-Test Calculator
.
313

We want to determine what is the
smallest difference that can be
detected based on our data.
Fill in the Power (1-Beta) and Sample
Size (N) select Difference (Mean1Mean2) to be solved for. SigmaXL
will tell us the differences we need.
The smallest difference that can be calculated is based on the smallest sample size.
In this case:
.7339 rounded to.734
314

Check Normality for Clor.Lev_Post_1
The results shows us a P-value of 0.304 so our data is also Normal.
Check Normality for Clor.Lev_Post_2

The results shows us a P-value of 0.941 so our data is also Normal.
315

Test for Equal Variances
Before calculating a 2 sample
t-Test we must test for Equal
Variances.
SigmaXL Path:
Statistical Tools > 2
Sample Comparison Tests
For the Numeric Data Variable (Y) we select our stacked column Clor.Lev_Post
For our Group Category (X) we select our stacked column Distributor
316

Look at the P-value of 0.113.
This tells us that there is no statistically significant difference in the variance in these two data sets.
What does this mean.We can finally run a 2 sample ttest with Equal Variances?
Follow the command prompt shown here and enter the data as shown. Remember you must click
on graphs and check the Box Plot data option. This way SigmaXL will create a Box Plot. Equal
variances can be assumed based on the test for equal variances on the previous page.
317

Look at the Box Plot and Session Window. There is NO significant difference between the
Distributors.
Look at the Box Plot and 2 Sample t-Test Results.
There is NO significant difference between the distributors.
Hmm, we re a
lot alike!!
The Box Plots show VERY little difference between the Distributors, also not the P-value in the
Session Window there is no difference between the two Distributors.
318

Unequal Variance Example
Open the worksheet named 2 SAMPLE UNEQUAL VARIANCE DATA.
Dont just sit there.

open it!!
Normality Test
319

Test for Equal Variance
This is the output from a SigmaXL Multi-Vari Chart. This can be created through SigmaXL >
Graphical Tools > Multi-Vari Chart. The F-Test Statistics were obtained using SigmaXL's 2
Sample Comparison Test. This can be selected through SigmaXL>Statistical Tools> 2 Sample
Comparison Tests
2-Sample t-Test Unequal Variance
The Box Plot shows no difference between the Means. The overall box is smaller for sample on the
left, which is an indication for the difference in variance.
320

2-Sample t-Test Unequal Variance
By looking at the histogram of Sample 3, you can notice a big spread or variance of the data.
321

2-Sample t-test Unequal Variance
What does the Pvalue of 0.996
mean? After
conducting a 2sample t-test there is
no significant
difference between
the Means.
322

Paired t-test
Example
1. Practical Problem:
We are interested in changing the sole material for a popular
brand of shoes for children.
In order to account for variation in activity of children wearing the
shoes, each child will wear one shoe of each type of sole
material. The sole material will be randomly assigned to either
the left or right shoe.
2. Statistical Problem:
H o: = 0
H a: 0
3. Paired t-test (comparing data that must remain paired).
= 0.05 = 0.10
Just checking your

souls, ersoles!!
323

Example (cont.)
Now lets open
EXH_STAT Delta
worksheet for
analysis. Use
columns labeled
Mat-A and Mat-B.
Paired t-test Example

In SigmaXL open Statistical Tools>Power & Sample Size Calculators> 1 Sample t-Test
Calculator. Enter in the appropriate Sample Size, Power Value and Standard Deviation.
Now thats
a tee test!!
Given the sample size of 10 we will be able to detect a difference of 1.15. If this was your process
you would need to decide if this was good enough. In this case, is a difference of 1.15 enough to
practically want to change the material used for the soles of the childrens shoes.
324

For the next test we must first calculate the difference between the two columns. We will use
Excels native functions to perform this calculation. Select Cell E2, enter: =C2-B2. We can
now copy this formula for the remaining cells to show the difference between Mat-A and Mat-B.
We placed Mat-B first in the equation shown because it was generally higher than the values for
Mat-A.
We are going to use the difference column in a One Sample t-Test however, SigmaXL also has a
Paired t-Test where the difference column is created automatically.
325

1-Sample t
Box Plot
From the results we see that the Null Hypothesis falls outside the confidence interval, so we reject the
Null Hypothesis. The P-value is also less than 0.05. Given this we are 95% confident that there is a
difference in the wear between the two materials used for the soles of childrens shoes.
The marker for our Hypothesized Mean has been added to illustrate our point.
326

Paired T-Test
Distinguishing between Two Samples
As you will see the conclusions are the same, but just presented differently.
327

Paired T-Test
If you analyze this as a 2-sample ttest it simply compares the means of Material A to Material B.
The power of the paired test is that it increases the sensitivity of the test without having to look at a
series of other factors.
Paired T-Test Exercise
328

Paired t-test Exercise: Solution
Because the two labs
ensured to exactly report
measurement results for
the same parts and the
results were put in the
correct corresponding row,
we are able to do a paired
t-test.
The first thing we must do
is create a new column
with the difference
between the two test
results.
We must confirm the

differences (now in a
new calculated column)
are from a Normal
Distribution. This was
confirmed with the
Anderson-Darling
Normality Test by doing
a graphical summary
under Basic Statistics.
329

Paired t-test Exercise: Solution
330

Continuous Data Roadmap
Notes
331

Determine appropriate sample sizes for testing Means
Conduct various Hypothesis Tests for Means
Properly Analyze Results
You have now completed Analyze Phase Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 1.
Notes
332
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2.
333

Overview
We are now
moving into
Hypothesis
Testing Normal
Data Part 2 where
we will address
Calculating
Sample Size,
Variance Testing
and Analyzing
Results.
We will examine
the meaning of
each of these and
show you how to
apply them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP22
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP11
CCaa lcu
lcula
la te
te SSaa m
mpple
le SSiz
izee
VVaa ria
ria nnce
ce Tes
Testin
tingg
AAnnaa ly
ly zze
e RRes
esuults
lts
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP22
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Tests of Variance
Normal Data
1 Sample to a target
2 Samples F-Test
3 or More Samples Bartlett s Test
Non-Normal Data
2 or more samples Levene s Test
The null hypothesis states there is no difference between the
Standard Deviations or variances.
Ho: 1 = 2 = 3
Ha = at least on is different
Now that s non-normal!!
334

1-Sample Variance
A 1 -s a m p le v a r ia n ce te s t is u s e d to co m p a r e a n e x p e cte d
p o p u la tio n v a r ia n ce to a ta r g e t.
Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary
If th e ta r g e t v a r ia n ce lie s in s id e th e co n fid e n ce in te r v a l, fa il
to r e je ct th e n u ll h y p o th e s is .
H o : 2 S a m p le = 2 Ta rg e t
H a : 2 S a m p le 2 Ta rg e t
U s e th e s a m p le s iz e ca lcu la tio n s fo r a 1 s a m p le t-te s t s in ce
th e y a r e r a r e ly p e r fo rm e d w ith o u t p e rfo rm in g a 1 s a m p le t-
te s t a s w e ll.
1 Sample t-test Sample Size
1 . P r a ctica l P ro b le m :
W e a re co n s id e rin g ch a n g in g s u p p lie s fo r a p a rt th a t w e
cu rre n tly p u rch a s e fro m a s u p p lie r th a t ch a rg e s a
p re m iu m fo r th e h a rd e n in g p ro ce s s a n d h a s a la rg e
v a ria n ce in th e ir p ro ce s s .
Th e p ro p o s e d n e w s u p p lie r h a s p ro v id e d u s w ith a
s a m p le o f th e ir p ro d u ct. Th e y h a v e s ta te d th e y ca n
m a in ta in a v a ria n ce o f 0 .1 0 .
2 . S ta tis tica l P r o b le m :
H o : 2 = 0 .1 0 o r
H a : 2 0 .1 0
H o : = 0 .3 1
H a : 0 .3 1
3 . 1 -s a m p le v a r ia n ce :
= 0 .0 5 = 0 .1 0
The Statistical Problem can be stated two ways:
The null hypothesis: The variance is equal to 0.10 and the alternative hypothesis: The variance is
not equal to 0.10
OR
The null hypothesis: The Standard Deviation is equal to 0.31 and the alternative hypothesis: The
Standard Deviation is not equal to 0.31
335

1-Sample Variance
Take time to notice the Standard Deviation of 0.31 falls within 95% confidence interval. Based off
this data the Statistical Solution is fail to reject the null. What does this mean from a practical
stand point? They can maintain a variance of 0.10 that is valid.
Typically, shifting a Mean is easier to accomplish in a process than reducing variance. The new
supplier would be worth continuing the relationship to see if they can increase the Mean slightly
while maintaining the reduced variance.
336

Test of Variance Example
1 . P r a ctica l P r o b le m :
W e want to determine the effect of two different storag e methods on
the rotting of potatoes. Y ou study conditions conducive to potato rot
by injecting potatoes with bacteria that cause rotting and subjecting
them to different temperature and oxyg en reg imes. W e can test the
data to determine if there is a difference in the Standard Devia tion of
the rot time between the two different methods.
2 . S ta tis tica l P r o b le m :
H o: 1 = 2
H a : 1 2
3 . Eq u a l v a r ia n ce te s t (F-test since there are only 2 factors.)
The Statistical problem is:

The null hypothesis: The Standard Deviation of the first method is equal to the Standard Deviation
of the second method.
The alternative hypothesis: The Standard Deviation of the first method is not equal to the Standard
Deviation of the second method.
These hypotheses can also be stated in terms of variance.
Now open the

worksheet
EXH_AOV.
Follow along in
SigmaXL.
Note: The
sample size is
for each level.
337

Normality Test Follow the Roadmap
Check for Normality.
According to the graph we have Normal data.
338

Test of Equal Variance
Now conduct the test for

Equal Variance using the 2
Sample Comparison Test.
What is the Statistical Solution? Fail to reject.
339

Normality Test
Test for Equal Variance (Normal Data)
340

Test of Equal Variance
You can see there
is no statistical
difference for
variance in Rot
based on
temperature as a
factor. Since the
data is Normally
Distributed and we
have 2 samples,
use F-Test
statistic.
Note: The Box Plot
was not generated
using the 2
Sample
Comparison Test.
It has been added
as a graphical
illustration.
Continuous Data - Normal
An alternative to
using the 2
Sample
Comparison Test
is the 2 Sample
F-Test Calculator
which requires
manual entry of
summary
statistics as
shown.
This calculator
can be found
under Statistical
Tools>Basic
Statistical
Templates>2
Sample FTest(Compare 2
StDevs)
This calculation confirms the P-value previously calculated.
341

Continuous Data - Normal
This time we
have Rot as the
response and
Temp/Oxygen as
the factor.
SigmaXLs tests for equal variances only allow one factor, so the Temp and Oxygen are
combined using Excels Concatenate Function to create a single factor Temp/Oxygen column.
Test For Equal Variances
From the Hypothesis Testing

Roadmap, we will now use
Bartletts Test for unequal
variances since there are more
than 2 levels (groups) in the
temp/oxygen factor.
342

Test For Equal Variances Statistical Analysis
Note that Bartletts Test for Equal Variance should only be used if the data is normal in each group.
Since the P-Values for all Anderson Darling Tests are >0.05, we will assume Normality for each
group. If we had Non-normal data, then Levenes Test for Equal Variance would be used.
343

Tests for Variance Exercise
Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution

First we want to do a graphical summary of the two samples from the two suppliers.
344

Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution
In Numeric Data Variables (Y) enter ppm VOC
In Group Category (X1) enter RM Supplier
We want to see if the two samples are from Normal populations.
The P-value is greater

than 0.05 for both
Anderson-Darling
Normality Tests so we
conclude the samples are
from Normally Distributed
populations because we
failed to reject the null
hypothesis that the data
sets are from Normal
Distributions.
345

Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution (cont.)
Continue to
determine if
they are of
Equal Variance.
Because the 2
populations were
considered to be
Normally Distributed,
the F-test is used to
evaluate whether the
variances (Standard
Deviation squared) are
equal.
The P-value of the Ftest was greater than
0.05 so we fail to
reject the null
hypothesis.
So once again in
English: The variances
are equal between the
results from the two
suppliers on our
products ppm VOC
level.
346

347

Purpose of ANOVA
Analysis of Variance extends the two sample t-test for testing

the equality of two population Means to a more general null
hypothesis of comparing the equality of more than two Means,
versus them not all being equal.
The classification variable, or factor, usually has three or
more levels (If there are only two levels, a t-test can be
used).
Allows you to examine differences among means using
multiple comparisons.
The ANOVA test statistic is:
Avg SS between S2 between

= 2
Avg SS within
S within
There s a Nova again!!
What do we want to know?

Is the between group variation large enough to be distinguished from the within group variation?
delta
()
(B e tw e e n G ro u p V a ria tio n )
To ta l (O v e ra ll) V a ria tio n

W ith in G ro u p V a ria tio n
(le v e l o f s u p p lie r 1 )
X
X
X X
X
X X X
348

Calculating ANOVA
Take a moment to review the formulas for an ANOVA.
W h e re :
G - th e n u m b e r o f g ro u p s (le v e ls in th e s tu d y )
x ij = th e in d iv id u a l in th e j th g ro u p
n j = th e n u m b e r o f in d iv id u a ls in th e j th g ro u p o r le v e l
X = th e g ra n d M e a n
X j = th e M ea n o f th e j th g ro u p o r le v e l
To ta l (O v e r a ll) V a r ia tio n
delta
()
W ith in G r o u p V a r ia tio n
(B e tw e e n G r o u p V a r ia tio n )
Within Group Variation
Between Group Variation

g
nj
(Xj X) 2
nj
(X
j=1
ij
X) 2
j=1 i =1
Total Variation
g
nj
(X
ij
X) 2
j=1 i =1
Calculating ANOVA
Th e a lp h a ris k in cre a s e s a s th e n u m b e r o f M e a n s
in cre a s e s w ith a p a ir -w is e t-te s t s ch e m e . Th e fo rm u la fo r
te s tin g m o re th a n o n e p a ir o f M e a n s u s in g a t-te s t is :
k
1 (1 )
where k = number of pairs of means
so, for 7 pairs of means and an = 0.05 :
7
1 - (1 - 0.05) = 0.30
or 30% alpha risk
The reason we dont use a t-test to evaluate series of Means is because the alpha risk increases
as the number of Means increases. If we had 7 pairs of Means and an alpha of 0.05 our actual
alpha risk could be as high as 30%. Notice we did not say it was 30%, only that it could be as high
as 30% which is quite unacceptable.
349

Three Samples
We have three potential suppliers that claim to have equal levels of quality. Supplier B provides a
considerably lower purchase price than either of the other two vendors. We would like to choose the
lowest cost supplier but we must ensure that we do not effect the quality of our raw material.
Follow the RoadmapTest for Normality

Compare P-values.
350

Test for Equal Variance
According to
Bartletts Test there
is no significant
difference in the
variance of the 3
suppliers.
ANOVA
There doesnt seem to be a huge difference here.
This Box Plot was not generated using Bartletts Test, we are using it to graphically display the
data.
351

ANOVA
Follow along in
SigmaXL.
Note that
SigmaXLs OneWay ANOVA uses a
confidence level of
95.0%.
Looking at the P-value the conclusion is we fail to reject the null hypothesis. According to the
data there is no significant difference between the Means of the 3 suppliers.
Note that the Mean/CI graph shows the 95% confidence intervals on the mean for each supplier
using a pooled standard deviation. The fact that the confidence intervals overlap indicates that
there is no statistical evidence of a difference in Supplier Means.
352

ANOVA
Before looking up the F-Critical value you must first know what the degrees of freedom is. The
purpose of the ANOVAs test statistic uses variance between the Means divided by variance within the
groups. Therefore, the degrees of freedom would be three suppliers minus 1 for 2 degrees of freedom.
The denominator would be 5 samples minus 1 (for each supplier) multiplied by 3 suppliers, or 12
degrees of freedom. As you can see the F-Critical value is 3.89 and since the F-Calc is 1.40 and not
close to the critical value, we fail to reject the Null Hypothesis.
Sample Size
Lets check on how much difference we can see with a sample of 5.
Will having a sample of
5 show a difference?
After crunching the
numbers, a sample of 5
can only detect a
difference of 2.56
Standard Deviations.
Which means that the
Mean would have to be
at least 2.56 Standard
Deviations until we
could see a difference.
To help elevate this
problem a larger
sample should be used.
If there is a larger
sample you would be
able to have a more
sensitive reading for the
Means and the
variance.
353

ANOVA Assumptions
1 . O b s e rv a tio n s a re a d e q u a te ly d e s crib e d b y th e m o d e l.
2 . Erro rs a re n o rm a lly a n d in d e p e n d e n tly d is trib u te d .
3 . H o m o g e n e ity o f v a ria n ce a m o n g fa cto r le v e ls .
In o n e -w a y A N O V A , m o d e l a d e q u a cy ca n b e ch e ck e d
b y e ith e r o f th e fo llo w in g :
1 . C h e ck th e d a ta fo r N o rm a lity a t e a ch le v e l a n d fo r
h o m o g e n e ity o f v a ria n ce a cro s s a ll le v e ls .
2 . Ex a m in e th e re s id u a ls (a re s id u a l is th e d iffe re n ce in
w h a t th e m o d e l p re d icts a n d th e tru e o b s e rv a tio n ).
1 . N o rm a l p lo t o f th e r e s id u a ls
2 . R e s id u a ls v e rs u s fits
3 . R e s id u a ls v e rs u s o rd e r
If th e m o d e l is a d e q u a te , th e re s id u a l p lo ts w ill b e s tru ctu re le s s .

Residual Plots
SigmaXL V6 does not include Residuals in One-Way ANOVA, so we will now manually
calculate the Residuals. The Residuals are the individual data points subtracted by the Mean of
the group. This slide uses Descriptive Statistics to calculate the Mean. This may also be done
using Excels AVERAGE function. These group Residuals are then stacked in the column
Stacked Residuals.
Note that
Residuals are
available in
Two-Way
ANOVA and
Regression
Analysis which
will be covered
at a later point.
354

Histogram of Residuals
The Histogram of Residuals
should show a bell shaped
curve.
Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

The Normality plot of the Residuals should follow a straight line on the probability plot. (Does a
pencil cover all the dots?)
355

Residuals versus Fitted Values
This chart was
created using a
Scatter Plot of
Stacked Residuals
Vs Supplier Mean.
ANOVA Exercise
356

ANOVA Exercise: Solution
First lets look at the Histogram and Descriptive Statistics for the 3 shifts.
Worksheet: RM Suppliers
We want to see if the 3 samples are from Normal populations.

In Numeric Data Variables (Y) enter ppm VOC
In Group Category (X1) enter Shift
357

Following the Hypothesis Testing Roadmap, we will use Bartletts Test for Equal Variance, since
there are 3 groups and each group is assumed to have Normal data.
358

If the variances are unequal
then use Welchs ANOVA
instead of One-Way
ANOVA.
359

A visual display of our Residuals indicates that the data is Normal. Since our Residuals look Normally
Distributed and randomly patterned, we will assume our analysis is correct.
This graphical
display was
generated using
Multiple Regression
which we will cover
in detail later.
The steps to create these Residual plots are as follows:

1.Select SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Regression>Multiple Regression.
2.Select ppm VOC for Numeric Response (Y).
3.Select Shift for Categorical Predictors (X).
4.Ensure Display Residual Plots is checked.
5.Click OK, the residuals can be found in the Mult Reg Residuals worksheet.
We accept the alternate hypothesis that the Mean

product quality is different from at least one shift.
Don t miss
that shift!!
Since the confidence intervals

of the Means do not overlap
between Shift 1 and Shift 3, we
see one of the shifts is
delivering a product quality with
a higher level of ppm VOC.
360

Be able to conduct Hypothesis Testing of Variances
Understand how to Analyze Hypothesis Testing Results
You have now completed Analyze Phase Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2.
Notes
361
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 1
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1.
362
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1

Overview
The core
phase are Equal
Variance Tests and
Tests for Medians.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
We will examine the

meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
In
Intro
tro to
to HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP22
Equal Variance Tests
Equal Variance Tests
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP11
Tests for Medians

Tests for Medians
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP22
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Non-Normal Hypothesis Tests

At this point we have covered the tests for determining significance for Normal Data. We will
continue to follow the roadmap to complete the test for Non-Normal Data with Continuous Data.
Later in the module we will use another roadmap that was designed for Discrete data.
Recall that Discrete data does not follow a Normal Distribution, but because it is not
Continuous Data, there are a separate set of tests to properly analyze the data.
Normal
Continuous
Non-Normal
Discrete
We can test for anything!!!
363

1 Sample t
Why do we care if a data set is Normally Distributed?
When it is necessary to make inferences about the true nature of the
population based on random samples drawn from the population.
When the two indices of interest (X-Bar and s) depend on the data
being Normally Distributed.
For problem solving purposes, because we dont want to make a bad
decision having Normal Data is so critical that with EVERY statistical
test, the first thing we do is check for Normality of the data.
Recall the four primary causes for Non-normal data:
Skewness Natural and Artificial Limits
Mixed Distributions - Multiple Modes
Kurtosis
Granularity
We will focus on skewness for the remaining tests for Continuous Data.
Skewness is a natural state for much data. Any data that has natural or artificial limits typically
exhibits a Skewed Distribution when it is operating near the limit. The other 3 causes for Nonnormality are usually a symptom of a problem and should be identified, separated and corrected.
We will focus on Skewness for the remaining tests for Continuous Data. A common reaction to Nonnormal Data is to simply transform it. Please see your Master Black Belt to determine if a transform is
appropriate. Often data is beaten into submission only to find out that there was an underlying cause
for Non-normality that was ignored. Remember, we want you to predict whether the data should be
Normal or not. If you believe your data should be Normal but it is not, there is most likely an
underlying cause that can be removed which will then allow the data to show its true nature and be
Normal.
Now we will
continue down
the NonNormal side of
the roadmap.
Notice this
slide is
primarily for
tests of
Medians.
364

Sample Size
Levenes test of equal variance, used to compa re the estimated

population Standard Deviations from two or more samples
with N on-N ormal distributions.
H o: 1 = 2 = 3
H a : A t least one is different.
You have already seen this command in the last module, this is simply the application for Nonnormal Data. The question is: Are any of the Standard Deviations or variances statistically
different?
Follow the Roadmap
Open the
worksheet
EXH_AOV.
Select
SigmaXL>Graphic
al Tools > Normal
Probability Plots.
As you can clearly
see from the chart,
this is not a normal
process.
Next we will see
that the Anderson
Darling P-values
are much less than
0.05.
365

Test of Equal Variance Non-Normal Distribution
Next we test for Equal Variance. From the Hypothesis Testing Roadmap, we see that since
Factors2 has 2 levels we will use the Levenes Test in the 2 Sample Comparison Tests. If we
had more than two levels we would use SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Equal Variance Tests>Levene
Select: SigmaXL>Statistical Tools > 2 Sample Comparison Tests. Since the data is Non-normal,
the test highlighted by SigmaXL is the Levenes test and not the F-test.
Test of Equal Variance Non-Normal Distribution
366

Hypothesis Test Exercise
Test for Equal Variance Example: Solution

First test to see if the data is Normal or Non-Normal.
367

Since there are two
variables we need to
perform a Normality Test
on CallsperWk1 and
CallsperWk2.
First select the variable
CallsperWk1 and
Press OK.
Follow the same steps
for CallsperWk2.
From the Descriptive Statistics and the Normal Probability Plots we can see that the data for both
groups is Non-normal.
368

As you can see the data illustrates a P-value of 0.247 which is more than 0.05. As a result, there is
no variance between CallperWk1 and CallperWk2. Therefore with a 95% confidence level we reject
the null hypothesis.
And here s our answer
369

Nonparametric Tests
A non-parametric test makes no assumptions about Normality.
For a Skewed Distribution:
- The appropriate statistic to describe the central tendency is the Median, rather than
the Mean.
- If just one distribution is not Normal, a non-parametric should be used.
Non-parametric Hypothesis Testing works the same way as parametric testing. Evaluate the Pvalue in the same manner.
Target
~
X
~
X1
~
X2
Mean and Median

In general, nonparametric tests do the following: rank order the data, sum the data by ranks, sign
the data above or below the target, and calculate, compare and test the Median. Comparisons
and tests about the Median make nonparametric tests useful with very Non-normal Data.
Note: SigmaXL V6 does not report confidence intervals on the Median in Descriptive Statistics. However,
Confidence Intervals on the Median are available in the Kruskal-Wallis and Moods Median Tests to be
covered later.
370

SigmaXLs Nonparametrics
1-Sample Sign: performs a one-sample sign test of the Median and calculates the corresponding
point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as an alternative to one-sample Z and onesample t-tests.
1-Sample Wilcoxon: performs a one-sample Wilcoxon signed rank test of the Median and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval (more discriminating or efficient
than the sign test). Use this test as a nonparametric alternative to one-sample Z and one-sample ttests.
Mann-Whitney: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of two population Medians and
calculates the corresponding point estimate and confidence interval. Use this test as a
nonparametric alternative to the two-sample t-test.
Kruskal-Wallis: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians for a one-way
design. This test is more powerful than Moods Median (the confidence interval is narrower, on
average) for analyzing data from many populations, but is less robust to outliers. Use this test as
an alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
Moods Median Test: performs a Hypothesis Test of the equality of population Medians in a oneway design. Test is similar to the Kruskal-Wallis Test. Also referred to as the Median test or sign
scores test. Use as an alternative to the one-way ANOVA.
There are 5 basic nonparametric tests that
SigmaXL calculates. Each one has a
counterpart in normal Hypothesis Testing.
371

1-Sample Sign Test
Here is a little trick! Dividing
the sample size from a t-test
estimate by 0.864 should
give you a large enough
sample regardless of the
underlying distributionmost
of the time.
For instance, having a
sample size of 23 using the ttest method, the sample size
would increase by 3. If there
is a Normal Distribution
(assuming) this number
would increase by 1.
Truthfully, it is really possible
to decrease the sample size
depending on the distribution selected for the alternative.
1-Sample Example
The Statistical Problem is: The Null Hypothesis is that the Median is equal to 63 and the alternative
hypothesis is the Median is not equal to 63.
Open the SigmaXL Data File: DISTRIB1.MTW. Next you have a choice of either performing a 1Sample Sign Test or 1-Sample Wilcoxon Test because both will test the Median against a target.
For this example we will perform a 1-Sample Sign Test.
372

1-Sample Example
For a two tailed test,

choose the not equal for
the alternative hypothesis.
As you can see the P-value is less than 0.05, so we must reject the null hypothesis which means
we have data that supports the alternative hypothesis that the Median is different than 63. The
actual Median of 65.70 is shown in the Session Window. Since the Median is greater than the
target value, it seems the new process is not as good as we may have hoped.
Statistical Tools >Nonparametric Tests > 1 Sample Wilcoxon
Perform the same steps as the 1-Sample Sign to use the 1-sample Wilcoxon.
373

Hypothesis Test Exercise
1 Sample Example: Solution

According to the Hypothesis the Mine Manager feels he is achieving his target of 2.1 tons/day.
H0: M = 2.1 tons/day
Ha: M 2.1 tons/day
Since we are using one sample, we have a choice of choosing either a 1 Sample-Sign or 1
Sample Wilcoxon. For this example we will use a 1 Sample-Sign.
374

1 Sample Example: Solution
We disagree!!
Mann-Whitney Example
375

Mann-Whitney Example
When looking at the
Probability Plot,
Match A yields a less
than .05 P-value.
Now look at Graph
B? Ok now you have
one graph that is
Non-normal Data and
the other that is
Normal. The good
news is when
performing a
Nonparametric Test
of 2 Samples, only
one has to be
Normal. With that
said, now lets
perform a MannWhitney.
Perform the Mann-Whitney test.

The Practical Conclusion is that there is a difference between the Medians of the two machines.
376

Exercise
Exercise objective: To practice solving problem presented

using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
A credit card company now understands there is no variability
difference in customer calls/week for the two different credit card
types. This means no difference in strategy of deploying the
workforces. However, the credit card company wants to see if there
is a difference in call volume between the two different card types.
The company expects no difference since the total sales among the
two credit card types are similar. The Black Belt was selected and
told to evaluate with 95% confidence if the averages were the same.
The Black Belt reminded the credit card company the calls/day were
not Normal distributions so he would have to compare using
Medians since Medians are used to describe the central tendency of
Non-normal Populations.
1. Analyze the problem using the Hypothesis Testing roadmap.
2. Use the columns named CallsperWk1 and CallsperWk2.
3. Is there a difference in call volume between the 2 different card
types?
Worksheet: Hypothesis Test Study
Mann-Whitney Example: Solution
377

Mann-Whitney Example: Solution
Moods Median Test

The final 2 tests are the Moods Median and the Kruskal Wallis.
1 . A n aluminum company wanted to compare the operation of its

three facilities worldwide. They want to see if there is a difference
in the recoveries among the three locations. A Black Belt was
asked to help manag ement evaluate the recoveries at the locations
with 9 5 % confidence.
2 . H o: M 1 = M 2 = M 3
H a : at least one is different
3 . Use the Moods median test.
4 . Based on the smallest sample of 1 3 , the test will be able to detect
a difference close to 1 .5 .
5 . Statistical C onclusions: Use columns named Recovery and
Location for analysis.
=
?
378

Follow the RoadmapNormality
Instead of using the Anderson-Darling test for Normality, this time we used the graphical summary
method. It gives a P-value for Normality and allows a view of the data that the Normality test does
not.
Notice evidence of
Outliers in at least 2
of the 3 populations.
You could do a Box
Plot to get a clearer
idea about Outliers.
379

Follow the RoadmapEqual Variance
Check for Equal Variance using Levenes Test. We conclude that the Variances are equal.
Moods Median Test
380

Kruskal-Wallis Test
Using the same data set, analyze using the Kruskal-Wallis test.
The Kruskal-Wallis Test is more powerful than the Moods Median Test, but the Moods Median Test
is more robust to Outliers.
Exercise
381

Pagers Defect Rate Example: Solution
Lets follow the
Roadmap and check
to see if the data is
Normal.
Take a moment to
compare the 3
variables. Since our 3
variables are less than
0.05 the data is Nonnormal.
SigmaXL>Graphical
Tools>Histograms
and Descriptive
Statistics
The P-value is over 0.05therefore, we fail to reject the Null Hypothesis.

382

Unequal Variance
W here do you g o in the roadmap if the variance is not equal?

Unequal variances are usually the result of differences in
the shape of the distribution.
Extreme tails
O utliers
Multiple modes
These conditions should be explored throug h data
demog raphics.
For S kewed Distributions with compa rable Medians it is
unusual for the variances to be different without some
assig nable cause impacting the process.
Example
This is an example of comparable products. To view these graphs open the worksheet Var_Comp.
As you can see, Model A is Normal but Model B is Non-normal.
383

Example (cont.)
Now lets check the
variance.
Does Model B have a
larger variance than
Model A? The Median
for Model B is much
lower. How can we
capitalize on our
knowledge of the
process? Lets look
at data demographic
to help us explain the
differences between
the two processes.
Data Demographics
What clues can explain the difference in variances? This example illustrates how Non-normal Data
can have significant informational content as revealed through data demographics. Sometimes this
is all that is needed to draw conclusions.
384

Black Belt Aptitude Exercise
Black Belt Aptitude Exercise: Solution
Which of these graphs has Normal Data and which one doesnt? As you can see data for
Engineering, Liberal Arts and Business is Normal Data. However, the data for Science is Nonnormal.
385

Black Belt Aptitude Exercise: Solution (cont.)
Now lets look at information given by SigmaXL. As you can see the P-value is greater than 0.05.
The data illustrates that there is not a difference in Variance.
Since the P-value is > .05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis, i.e., there is no difference between
a potential Black Belts degree and performance.
386

Conduct Hypothesis Testing for Equal Variance
Conduct Hypothesis Testing for Medians
Analyze and interpret the results
You have now completed Analyze Phase Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 1.
Notes
387
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data
Part 2
Now we will continue in the Analyze Phase with Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2.
388

Overview
The core
phase are Tests for
Proportions and
Contingency Tables.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to AA nnaa ly
ly zz ee
XX SSiftin
iftingg
In
Infe
fere
renntia
tia l l SSta
ta tis
tistics
tics
In
Intro
tro to
to HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP11
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
N DD PP22
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP11
Tests for Proportions
Tests for Proportions
HH yy ppooth
theessis
is Te
Tesstin
tingg N
NN
N DD PP22
CC ontingency Tables
ontingency Tables
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Attribute Data
We will now continue with the roadmap for Attribute Data. Since Attribute Data is Non-normal by
definition, it belongs in this module on Non-normal Data.
389

Sample Size and Types of Data
Sample size is dependent on the type of data.
Proportion versus a Target

This formula is an approximation for ease of manual calculation.
Th is te s t is u s e d to d e te rm in e if th e p ro ce s s p ro p o rtio n (p )
e q u a ls s o m e d e s ire d v a lu e , p 0 .
Th e h y p o th e s e s :
H 0 : p = p 0
H a : p p 0
Th e o b s e rv e d te s t s ta tis tic is ca lcu la te d a s fo llo w s :
(n o rm a l a p p ro x im a tio n )
obs
(p p )
0
p (1 p
0
)n
Th is is co m p a re d to Z crit = Z a / 2
390

Now lets try an example:
Take note of the how quickly the sample size increases as the alternative proportion goes up. It
would require 1402 samples to tell a difference between 98% and 99% accuracy. Our sample of
500 will do because the alternative hypothesis is 96% according to the proportion formula.
Yes sir,
theyre all
good!!
391

Select the Confidence Interval for One Proportion as shown above. Now for the Number of
elements: enter how many items were shipped and for the Size of Sample field enter the number
of accurate items shipped. SigmaXL reports the Upper and Lower CI Limits.
After you analyze the data you will see the Statistical Conclusion is to reject the Null Hypothesis.
What is the Practical Conclusionthe process is not performing to the desired accuracy of 99%.
Sample Size Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : To practice solving the problem

presented using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
Y ou are the shipping manag er and are in charg e of
improving shipping accuracy. Y our annual bonus
depends on your ability to prove that shipping
accuracy is better than the targ et of 8 0 %.
1 . How many samples do you need to take if the
anticipated sample proportion is 8 2 %?
2 . O ut of 2 0 0 0 shipments only 1 6 8 0 were accurate.
Do you g et your a nnua l bonus?

W as the sa mple siz e g ood enoug h?
392

Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
Power (1-Beta) should be .9 and the Alternative Proportion 1(P1) should be 0.82. The
Hypothesized Proportion should be 0.80. Keep the default Alpha of .05.
As you can see the Sample Size should be at least 4073 to prove our hypothesis.
Do you get your bonus?

Yes, you get your bonus since .80 is not within the confidence interval. Because the improvement
was 84%, the sample size was sufficient.
Answer: Use alternative proportion of .82, hypothesized proportion of .80. n=4073. Either youd
better ship a lot of stuff or youd better improve the process more than just 2%!
N o w le t u s ca lcu la te if w e
re ce iv e o u r b o n u s
O u t o f th e 2 0 0 0
s h ip m e n ts , 1 6 8 0 w e re
a ccu ra te . W a s th e
s a m p le s iz e s u fficie n t?
X 1680
p = =
= 0.84
n 2000
393

Comparing Two Proportions
SigmaXL gives you a
choice of using the
normal approximation
or the exact method.
We will use the exact
method. The formula is
an approximation for
ease of manual
calculation.
Th is te s t is u s e d to d e te rm in e if th e p ro ce s s d e fe ct ra te (o r
p ro p o rtio n , p ) o f o n e s a m p le d iffe rs b y a ce rta in a m o u n t D
fro m th a t o f a n o th e r s a m p le (e .g ., b e fo re a n d a fte r y o u r
im p ro v e m e n t a ctio n s )
Th e h y p o th e s e s :
H 0 : p 1 - p 2 = D
H a : p 1 - p 2 D
Th e te s t s ta tis tic is ca lcu la te d a s fo llo w s :
Zobs =
p1 p 2 D
p1 (1 p1 ) n1 + p 2 (1 p 2 ) n 2
Th is is co m p a re d to Z critica l = Z a / 2
Catch
s ome
Z s!
Catch
some
Zs!!
Sample Size and Two Proportions Practice
Answers:
34,247
32,986
4,301
5,142
5,831
5,831
394

In SigmaXL click Statistic Tools > Power &Sample Size Calculators>2 Proportion Test Calculator. For the field
Proportion 1 (P1): type .85 and for the field Power (1-Beta): type .90; The last field Proportion
2 (P2): enter .95 then click OK.
A sample of at least 188 is necessary for each group to be able to detect a 10% difference. If you
have reason to believe your improved process is has only improved to 90% and you would like to
be able to prove that improvement is occurring the sample size of 188 is not appropriate.
Recalculate using .90 for proportion 2 and leave proportion 1 at .85. It would require a sample
size of 918 for each sample!
The data
shown was
gathered for
two
processes.
Th e fo llo w in g d a ta w e re ta k e n :
To ta l S a m p le s
A ccu ra te
B e fo re Im p r o v e m e n t
600
510
A fte r Im p ro v e m e n t
225
212
C a lcu la te p ro p o rtio n s :
B e fo re Im p r o v e m e n t: 6 0 0 s a m p le s , 5 1 0 a ccu ra te
p1 =
X1 510
=
= 0.85
n1 600
A fte r Im p ro v e m e n t: 2 0 0 s a m p le s , 2 2 0 a ccu ra te
p 2 =
X 2 212
=
= 0.942
n 2 225
395

To compare two proportions in SigmaXL select Statistical Tools>Basic Statistical Templates>2
Proportion Test & Fishers Exact.
Note: Fishers exact P-values should be used for any real world problem. The approximate P-values
based on the Normal Distribution are provided for instructional purposes, e.g., comparing to hand
calculations.
The normal approximation uses a pooled estimate of proportion for the test.
Boris and Igor Exercise
396

2 Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
Firs t w e n e e d to ca lcu la te
o u r e s tim a te d p 1 a n d p 2 fo r
B o ris a n d Ig o r.
Boris
p1 =
X1 47
=
= 0.132
n1 356
Ig or
p 2 =
X 2 99
=
= 0.173
n 2 571
Poised for the

competition!!
Results:
As you can see we Fail to reject the null hypothesis with the data given. One conclusion is the
sample size is not large enough. It would take a minimum sample of 1673 to distinguish the
sample proportions for Boris and Igor.
397

2 Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
The Fishers exact P-value (2-sided, Ha:P1P2) is .096 so we fail to reject the Null Hypothesis.
398

Contingency Tables
C o n tin g e n cy Ta b le s a re u s e d to s im u lta n e o u s ly co m p a re
m o re th a n tw o s a m p le p ro p o rtio n s w ith e a ch o th e r.
It is ca lle d a C o n tin g e n cy Ta b le b e ca u s e w e a re te s tin g
w h e th e r th e p ro p o rtio n is co n tin g e n t u p o n , o r d ep e n d e n t
u p o n th e fa cto r u s e d to s u b g ro u p th e d a ta .
Th is te s t g e n e ra lly w o rk s th e b e s t w ith 5 o r m o re
o b s erv a tio n s in e a ch ce ll. O b s e rv a tio n s ca n b e p o o le d b y
co m b in in g ce lls .
S o m e e x a m p le s fo r u s e in clu d e :
R e tu rn p ro p o rtio n b y p ro d u ct lin e
C la im p ro p o rtio n b y cu s to m er
D e fect p ro p o rtio n b y m a n u fa ctu rin g lin e
Th e n u ll h y p o th e s is is th a t th e p o p u la tio n p ro p o rtio n s o f
e a ch g ro u p a re th e s a m e .
H 0 : p 1 = p 2 = p 3 = = p n
H a : a t le a s t o n e p is d iffe re n t
S ta tis ticia n s h a v e s h o w n th a t th e fo llo w in g s ta tis tic fo rm s

a ch i-s q u a re d is trib u tio n w h e n H 0 is tru e :
2
(observed expected)
expected
W h e re o b s e rv e d is th e s a m p le fre q u e n cy , e x p e cte d
is th e ca lcu la te d fre q u e n cy b a s e d o n th e n u ll h y p o th e s is ,
a n d th e s u m m a tio n is o v e r a ll ce lls in th e ta b le .
That? ..oh, thats my

contingency table!!
399

Test Statistic Calculations
C h i-s q u a r e Te s t
2
o
=
i =1
(Oij E ij ) 2
E ij
j=1
(F * F )
E ij = row col
Ftotal
W h e re :
O = th e o b s e rv e d v a lu e
(fro m s a m p le d a ta )
E = th e e x p e cte d v a lu e
r = n u m b e r o f ro w s
c = n u m b e r o f co lu m n s
F r o w = to ta l fre q u e n cy fo r th a t
ro w
2
critical
= ,2
From the C hi-S quare Table
F co l = to ta l fre q u e n cy fo r th a t
co lu m n
F to ta l = to ta l fre q u e n cy fo r th e ta b le
n = d e g re e s o f fre e d o m [(r -1 )(c-1 )]
Wow!!! Can you believe this is the math in a Contingency Table. Thank goodness for SigmaXL.
Now lets do an example.
Contingency Table Example
Cant you clowns get

the entries correct?!!
Note the data gathered in the table. Curley isnt looking too good right now (as if he ever did).
400

The sample data
are the observed
frequencies. To
calculate the
expected
frequencies, first
add the rows and
columns. Then
calculate the overall
proportion for each
row.
The sample data are the observed frequencies. To calculate

the expected frequencies, first add the rows and columns:
Defective
OK
Total
Moe
5
20
25
Larry Curley Total

8
20
33
30
25
75
38
45
108
Then calculate the overall proportion for each row:
Moe
Defective
5
OK
20
Total
25
Larry Curley Total

8
20
33 0.306
30
25
75 0.694
38
45
108
33/108 = 0.306
75/108 = 0.694
Now use these proportions to calculate the expected frequencies in each cell.
Defective Proportion = 0.306

OK Proportion = 0.694
Moe
Defective
5
OK
20
Total
25
0.694 * 38 = 26.4
Larry Curley Total

8
20
33 0.306
30
25
75 0.694
38
45
108
0.306*45 = 13.8
401

N e x t ca lcu la te th e 2 v a lu e fo r e a ch ce ll in th e ta b le :
(observed - expected)2
expected
Moe
Defective 0.912
OK
0.401
Larry
1.123
0.494
Curley
2.841
1.250
(20 13.8)2
13.8
= 2.841
Fin a lly , a d d th e s e n u m b ers to g e t th e o b s erv e d ch i -s q u a re :

2 = 0.912 +1.123 + 2.841+
obs
0.401+ 0.494 +1.250
2
obs = 7.02
The final step is to create a summary table including the observed chi-squared.
A s u m m a ry o f th e ta b le :
Observed
Expected
2
D e fe ctiv e
Observed
Expected
OK
Moe
5
7.6
Larry
8
11.6
Curley
20
13.8
0.912
20
17.4
1.123
30
26.4
2.841
25
31.3
0.401
0.494
1.250
2 = 7.02
obs
402

G ra p h ica l S u m m a ry :
S in ce th e o b s erv e d ch i-s q u a re e x ce e d s th e critica l ch i-
s q u a re , w e re je ct th e n u ll h y p o th e s is th a t th e d e fe ct
ra te is in d ep e n d e n t o f w h ich p e rs o n e n te rs th e o rd ers .
C hi-square probability density function for n = 2
0.5
0.4
0.3
A ccept Reject
0.2
2 = 7.02
obs
0.1
0.0
0
chi-square
2 = 5.99
crit
403

Contingency Table Example (cont.)
For the Chi Square for TwoWay (contingency) tables if
your data is in stacked
column format use the Chi
Square Test.
This data can be found in
the Stooges worksheet.
As you can see the data confirms: to reject the null hypothesis and the Practical Conclusion is: The
defect rate for one of these stooges is different. In other words, defect rate is contingent upon the
stooge.
404

Quotations Exercise
Ex e rcis e o b je ctiv e : To practice solving the problem

presented using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
Y ou a re the quota tions ma na g er a nd your team thinks tha t the

rea son you dont g et a contra ct depends on its complexity.
Y ou determine a wa y to mea sure complexity a nd cla ssify lost
contra cts a s follows:
Price
Lead Time
Technology
Low
8
10
5
Med
10
11
9
High
12
9
16
1 . W rite the null and alternative hypothesis.

2 . Does complexity have an effect?
Contingency Table Example: Solution
405

Contingency Table Example: Solution (cont.)
After analyzing the data we can see the P-value is 0.426 which is larger than 0.05. Therefore, we
accept the null hypothesis.
Instructor notes:
1. Ho: plow = pmed = phigh
Ha: at least one is different
2. Obs Chi square = 3.856 Crit Chi
square = 9.488 df = (3-1)(3-1)
Fail to reject. There is no basis that they
dont get contracts because of their
complexity.
Overview
Contingency Tables are another form of Hypothesis Testing.

They are used to test for association (or dependency) between two
classifications.
The null hypothesis is that the classifications are independent.
A Chi-square Test is used for frequency (count) type data.
If the data is converted to a rate (over time) then a continuous type
test would be possible. However, determining the period of time that
the rate is based on can be controversial. We do not want to just
pick a convenient interval; there needs to be some rational behind
the decision. Many times we see rates based on a day because that
is the easiest way to collect data. However, a more appropriate way
would be to look at the rate distribution per hour.
Per hour?!
Per day?!
Per month?!
406

Calculate and explain test for proportions
Calculate and explain contingency tests
You have now completed Analyze Phase Hypothesis Testing Non-Normal Data Part 2.
Notes
407
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Analyze Phase
Now we will conclude the Analyze Phase with Wrap Up and Action Items.
408

Analyze Phase Wrap Up Overview
Six Sigma Behaviors
Embracing chang e
C ontinuous learning
Being tenacious and courag eous
Make data -b ased decisions
Being rig orous
Thinking outside of the box
Ea
Each
ch ppla
layyeerr in
in th
thee SSix
ix SSig
igm
maa pprrooce
cessss m
muusst t bbee
AA RROOLE
LE M
MOODDEL
EL
fo
r

th
e

S
ix

S
ig
m
a

cu
fo r th e S ix S ig m a cultu
lturree..
A Six Sigma Black Belt has a tendency to take on many roles, therefore these behaviors help
throughout the journey.
409

Analyze Deliverables
Sample size is dependent on the type of data.
Listed below are the A nalyz e Phase deliverables that each candid ate
will present in a Power Point presentation at the beg inning of the
C ontrol Phase training .
A t this point you should all understand what is necessary to provide
these deliverables in your presentation.
Team Members (Team Meeting A ttendance)

Primary Metric
Secondary Metric(s)
Data Demog raphics
Hypothesis Testing (applicable tools)
Modeling (applicable tools)
Strateg y to reduce Xs
Project Plan
Its
Issues and Barriers
your
show!!
Its
y our
s how!
Analyze Phase - The Roadblocks

Each phase will have roadblocks. Many will be similar throughout your project.
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address

them before they become problems:
Lack of data
Data presented is the best guess by functional
managers
Team members do not have the time to collect data
Process participants do not participate in the analysis
planning
Lack of access to the process
410

DMAIC Roadmap
C hampion/
Process O wner
Now you should be able to prove/disprove the impact Xs have on a problem.
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
Analyze Phase
Over 80% of projects will
realize their solutions in the
Analyze Phase then we
must move to the Control
Phase to assure we can
sustain our improvements.
Vital Few Xs Identified

Sta te Practica l Theories of Vita l Few Xs Impact on Problem
Tra nsla te Practica l Theories into Scientific Hypothesis
Select A nalysis Tools to Prove/ Disprove Hypothesis
C ollect Da ta
Perform Sta tistica l Tests
Sta te Practica l C onclusion
Statistically
Sig nificant?
Update FMEA
Practically
Sig nificant?
Y
Root
C ause
Y
N
Identify Root C a use
Ready for Improve and C ontrol
411

Analyze Phase Checklist
Analyze Questions
Define Performance Objectives Graphical Analysis
Is existing data laid out graphically?
Are there newly identified secondary metrics?
Is the response discrete or continuous?
Is it a Mean or a variance problem or both?
Document Potential X s Root Cause Exploration
Are there a reduced number of potential X s?
Who participated in these activities?
Are the number of likely X s reduced to a practical number for analysis?
What is the statement of Statistical Problem?
Does the process owner buy into these Root Causes?
Analyze Sources of Variability Statistical Tests
Are there completed Hypothesis Tests?
Is there an updated FMEA?
General Questions
Are there any issues or barriers that prevent you from completing this phase?
Do you have adequate resources to complete the project?
Planning for Action

This is a template that should be used with each project to assure you take the proper steps
remember, Six Sigma is very much about taking steps. Lots of them and in the correct order.
WHAT
W HO
W H EN
WHY
W H Y N O T
HOW
Q ualitative screening of vital from controllable trivial Xs

Q ualitative screening for other factors
Q uantitative screening of vital from controllable trivial Xs
Ensure compliance to problem solving strateg y
Q uantify risk of meeting needs of customer, business and people
Predict risk of sustainability
C hart a plan to accomplish desired state of culture
A ssess shift in process location
Minimiz e risk of process failure
Modeling C ontinuous or N on C ontinuous O utput
A chieving breakthrough in Y with minimum efforts
Validate Financial Benefits
412

Have started to develop a project plan to meet the deliverables
Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method through your project
Youre on your way!!

You have now completed the Analyze Phase. Congratulations!
Notes
413
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Welcome to Improve
Now that we have completed the Analyze Phase we are going to jump into the Improve Phase.
Welcome to Improve will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
414
Welcome to Improve
Overview
Well, now that the
Analyze Phase is over,
on to a more difficult
phase. The good news
is.youll hardly ever
use this stuff, so pay
close attention!
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W e lco m e to Im p ro v e
P ro ce s s M o d e lin g : R e g r e s s io n
A d v a n ce d P ro ce s s M o d e lin g :
M LR
D e s ig n in g Ex p e rim e n ts
Ex p e rim e n ta l M e th o d s
Fu ll Fa cto r ia l Ex p e rim e n ts
Fra ctio n a l Fa cto r ia l Ex p e rim e n ts
C hampion/
Process O wner
DMAIC Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
We are currently in the Improve Phase and by now you may be quite sick of Six Sigma, really! In this
module we are going to look at additional approaches to process modeling. Its actually quite fun in a
weird sort of way!
415
Welcome to Improve
Improve Phase
A nalysis C omplete
Identify Few Vital Xs
Experiment to O ptimiz e Value of Xs
Simulate the N ew Process
Validate N ew Process
Implement N ew Process
Ready for C ontrol
After completing the Improve Phase you will be able to put to use the steps as depicted here.
416
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Process Modeling Regression
Now we will continue in the Improve Phase with Process Modeling: Regression.
417

Overview
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to Im
Im ppro
rovvee
CC orrela
orrelation
tion
PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
lingg : : RReegg rreessssio
ionn
Introduction to Reg
Introduction to Regression
ression
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
lingg : :
M
MLR
LR
Simple Linea
Simple Linear Reg
r Regression
ression
D
Deessig
ig nnin
ingg Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennta
ta l l M
Meeth
thooddss
Fu
Full
ll Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Fra
Fra ctio
ctionnaa l l Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
In this module of Process Modeling we will study Correlation, Introduction to Regression and Simple
Linear Regression. These are some powerful tools in our data analysis tool box.
We will examine the meaning of each of these and show you how to apply them.
Correlation
418

Correlation Coefficient
Ho: No Correlation
Ho ho ho.!
Ha: There is Correlation
Ha ha ha.!
The Correlation Coefficient (always) assumes a value between 1 and +1.

The Correlation Coefficient of the population, R, is estimated by the sample
Correlation Coefficient, r:
The null hypothesis for correlation is: there is no correlation, the alternative is there is correlation.
The correlation coefficient (always) assumes a value between 1 and +1.
The correlation coefficient of the population, large R, is estimated by the sample correlation
coefficient, small r and is calculated as shown.
Types and Magnitude of Correlation
The graphics shown here are labeled as the type and magnitude of their correlation: Strong,
Moderate or Weak correlation.
419

Limitations of Correlation
To properly
understand
regression you
must first
understand
correlation.
Once a
relationship is
described, then
a regression can
be performed.
A strong positive or neg ative correlation between X and Y does not indicate
causality.
C orrelation provides an indica tion of the streng th but does not provide us
with an exact numerical relationship (i.e. Y = f(x)).
The mag nitude of the correlation coefficient is somewha t relative and should
be used with caution.
Just like any other statistic, you need to assess whether the correlation
coefficient is statistically sig nificant, as well as practically sig nificant.
A s usual, statistical sig nificance is judg ed by comparing a p -value with the

chosen deg ree of alpha risk.
G uidelines for practical sig nificance are as follows:
A strong positive
If | r | > 0 .8 0 , relationship is practically sig nificant
or negative
If | r | < 0 .2 0 , relationship is not practically sig nificant
correlation
between X and
reaa o of f nneeggaativ
tivee
A re a o f p o s itiv e
AAre
N o lin e a r co rre la tio n
Y does not
lineeaar r co
corre
rrelalatio
tionn
lin e a r co rre la tio n
lin
indicate
causality.
+ 1 .0
-1 .0
-0 .8
-0 .2
0 .2
0 .8
0
Correlation
provides an
indication of the strength but does not provide us with an exact numerical relationship. Regression
however provides us with that data more specifically a y equals f of x equation. Just like any other
statistic, be sure to assess the correlation coefficient is both statistically significant and practically
significant.
Correlation Example
We will use some data from a National Football League player, Walter Payton formerly of the
Chicago Bears. Open the worksheet RB Stats Correlation as shown here.
420

Correlation Analysis
Get outta my way!!
To generate a graph with the correlation data and a Trendline follow the sequence shown with our
data set.
Correlation Example
SigmaXL V6 does not
include Lowess
Smoothing. If a trend
line is selected, it can
easily be modified using
Excels Chart tools.
In this example it
appears that there is
strong correlation in the
data.
421

Correlation Example (cont.)
Now we will generate
the Correlation
Coefficient using
SigmaXL. Follow the
SigmaXL command
path shown here and
select the variables
payton carries and
payton yards as
shown above. The
Correlation Coefficient
is high which
corresponds to the
graph on the previous
slide that shows
positive correlation.
The P-value is low at .
000 so we reject the
null hypothesis by saying that there is significant correlation between Paytons carries and the
number of yards.
Regression Analysis
Correlation ONLY tells us the strength of a relationship while Regression gives the mathematical
relationship or the prediction model. The last step to proper analysis of Continuous Data is to
determine the Regression Equation. The Regression Equation can mathematically predict Y for any
given X. The Regression Equation from SigmaXL is the BEST FIT for the plotted data.
Prediction Equations:
Y = a + bx
(Linear or 1st order model)
Y = a + bx + cx2
(Quadratic or 2nd order model)
Y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3
(Cubic or 3rd order model)
Y = a (bx)
(Exponential)
Looking for the best fit!!
422

Simple vs. Multiple Regression
In Simple
Regression there is
only one X
commonly referred
to as a predictor or
regressor. Multiple
Regression allows
many Ys. Recall
we are only
presenting Simple
Regression in this
phase and will
present Multiple
Regression in detail
in the next phase.
Regression Analysis Graphical Output
There are two ways to perform a Simple Regression. One is the Scatter Plot as shown. The
Regression Equation can be found in the top right corner. A Simple Regression can also be
performed in SigmaXL using the Multiple Regression tool, which will be covered in the next slide.
Follow the SigmaXL command prompt shown here, select payton yards for Response (Y) and
payton carries for the Predictor (X1).
423

Regression Analysis Statistical Output
Now we will perform
the Simple Linear
Regression using
SigmaXL's Multiple
Regression Tool to
get a more detailed
statistical analysis.
Select
SigmaXL>Statistical
Tools>Regression>
Multiple
Regression. Select
payton yards for
Numeric Response
(Y) and payton
carries for
Continuous
Predictors (X).
The difference between R squared and adjusted R squared is not terribly important in Simple
Regression. In Multiple Regression where there are many Xs it becomes more important.
Well look at that in the next module.
Regression (Prediction) Equation

The Regression
Analysis
generates a
prediction model
based on the best
fit line through the
data represented
by the equation
shown here.
To predict the
number of yards
that Payton would
run if he had 250
carries you simply
fill in that value in
the equation and
solve.
R e g re s s io n A n a ly s is : P a y to n y a rd s v e rs u s P a y to n ca r rie s
The reg ression equation is
Payton yards = -1 6 3 .4 9 7 + 4 .9 1 6 2 2 Payton carries
C o n s ta n t
Le v e l o f X
C o e fficie n t
To predict how many yards Payton would run if he had 2 5 0 carries use the
prediction equation above.
Payton yards = -163.497 + 4.91622(250) = 1,065.6
424

Regression (Prediction) Equation (cont.)
You could
make a rough
estimate by
using a
Scatter Plot.
To get an
exact estimate
use
SigmaXLs
Predicted
Response
Calculator
located in the
Multiple
Regression
worksheet.
Regression Graphical Output
Using Excels native functions we are able to modify the fitted line plot to both Quadratic and Cubic
models.
425

Regression Graphical Output (cont.)
Use the best fitting equation by looking at the R-Sq value. If it improves significantly, or if the
assumptions of the residuals are better met as a result of utilizing the quadratic or cubic equation
you should use it.
Here there is no big difference so we will stick with the linear model.
Residuals
Regression Analysis relies on assumptions about the residuals; differences between predicted
and actual Y values. Then we analyze the residuals to look for evidence of an outlier, which
could mean a typo or some assignable cause, or nonlinearity.
As in ANOVA, the residuals should:
Be Normally Distributed (normal plot of residuals)
Be independent of each other
no patterns (random)
data must be time ordered (residuals vs. order graph)
Have a constant variance (visual, see residuals versus fits chart,
should be (approximately) the same number of residuals above
and below the line, equally spread.)
426

Residuals (cont.)
These graphs are found on the Mult Reg Residuals sheet.
427

Residual Analysis
Standardized
residuals
greater than 2
and less than
-2 are usually
considered
large. We will
discuss the
meaning of
this a bit later.
The Residuals
Table can be
found on the
Mult Reg
Residuals
worksheet.
Normal Probability Plot of Residuals

This Normal
Probability Plot of
Standardized
Residuals can be
found in the Mult
Reg Residuals
worksheet next to the
Multiple Regression
results. This chart is
displayed starting in
cell R1.
As you can see the Normal probability plot of residuals evaluates the Normally Distributed response
assumption. The residuals should lay near the straight line to within a fat pencil. Looking at a
Normal probability plot to determine normality takes a little practice. Technically speaking however,
it is inappropriate to generate an Anderson-Darling or any other Normality test that generates a pvalue to determine normality. The reason is that residuals are not independent and do not meet a
basic assumption for using the Normality tests. Dr. Douglas Montgomery of Arizona State University
coined the phrase fat pencil test much to the chagrin of many of his colleagues.
428

Residuals vs Fitted Values
Residuals versus
Fitted Values
evaluates the
Equal Variance
assumption. Here
you want to have a
random scattering
of points.
You DO NOT want
to see a funnel
effect where the
residuals gets
bigger and bigger
as the Fitted Value
gets bigger or
smaller. Note: The
horizontal line at 0
was manually
added as a
reference.
Residuals vs Order of Data
Residuals versus the order of data is used to evaluate the independence assumption. It should not
show trends either up or down and should have approximately the same number of points above
and below the zero line. The horizontal line at 0 was manually added as a reference.
429

Modeling Y=f(x) Exercise
Modeling Y=f(x) Exercise: Question 1 Solution
430

You could also use Recall SigmaXL Dialog to quickly recreate the Scatter Plot.
Fitted Line Plot!
431

Modeling Y=f(x) Exercise: Question 2 Solution (cont.)
432

If Dorsett carries the football 325 times the predicted value would be determined that Dorsett
would carry the football for 1462.63 yards approximately!
All three assumptions have been satisfied.
433

Perform the steps in a Correlation and a Regression Analysis
Explain when Correlation and Regression is appropriate
You have now completed Improve Phase Process Modeling Regression.
Notes
434
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Advanced Process Modeling
Now we will continue with the Improve Phase Advanced Process Modeling MLR.
435

Overview
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to Im
Im ppro
rovvee
PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
ionn
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
lingg : :
M
MLR
LR
D
Deessig
ig nnin
ingg Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Review C
Review C orr./
orr./ Reg
Regression
ression
N
N on-
on-LLinea
inear Reg
r Regression
ression
Tra
Transforming
nsforming Process Da
Process Data
ta
Multiple Reg
Multiple Regression
ression
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennta
ta l l M
Meeth
thooddss
Fu
Full
ll Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Fra
Fra ctio
ctionnaa l l Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
The core fundamentals of this phase are as shown.

Correlation and Linear Regression Review
Recall the Simple Linear Regression and Correlation covered in a previous module. The essential
tools presented here describe the relationship between two variables. A independent or input factor
and typically an output response. Causation is NOT always proved; however, the tools do present a
guaranteed relationship.
436

Correlation Review
The Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient,
represented here
as r, shows the
strength of a
relationship in
correlation. The
coefficient can vary
ONLY between -1
and +1 while a zero
value describes NO
relationship,
meaning no
correlation.
The P-value proves
the statistical
confidences of our
conclusion
representing the
Possibility that a relationship exists. Simultaneously; the Pearson Correlation Coefficient shows
the strength of the relationship. For example, P-value standardized at .05, then 95%
confidence in a relationship is exceeded by the two factors tested.
Linear Regression Review
Presented here
Stirrate is directly
related to impurity of
the process; the
relationship between
the two, is one unit
Stir Rate causes .
4566 Impurity
increase. Stir Rate
locked at 30 and
Impurity calculated
by 30 times .4566,
subtracting .289
gives us a 13.4
Impurity. Granted;
that we have an error
in our model, the red
points do not lie on
the blue line.
The dependent response variable is Impurity and the Stirrate is the independent predictor, as
both variables in this example are perpetual.
437

Correlation Review
Numerical
relationship is left
out when speaking
of Correlation.
Correlation shows
potency of linear
relationship,
mathematical
relationship is
shown by and
through the
Prediction Equation
of Regression. As
shown, these
Correlations or
Regressions are not
proven casual
relationships. We
are attempting to
PROVE statistical commonality. Exponential, quadratic, simple linear relationships or even
predictable outputs (Y) concern REGRESSION equations. More complex relationships are
approaching.
Simple vs. Multiple Regression Review

Simply Regressions
have one X and are
referenced as the
regressors or
predictors; multiple
Xs give reason to
output or response
variable, this is
Multiple Regression
accounts.
Strength of the
regression known
quantity by R
squared and dictates
overall variation in
output (Y),
independent variable
subjected to the
regression equation.
438

Regression Step Review
How to run a Regression
The basic steps to follow in Regression are as follows:
is directed here. Using a
1. Create Scatter Plot with Trendline (Graphical Tools>Scatterplot)
Scatter Plot, and
understanding the
2. Determine Correlation (Statistical Tools>Correlation Matrix P-value less
than 0.05)
variation between the Xs
and Ys, then activate a
3. Run Regression (Statistical Tools>Regression>Multiple Regression)
(Unusual Observations?)
Correlation analysis
allowing a potential linear
4. Evaluate R2, adjusted R2 and P-values
relationship indication.
5. Consider quadratic or cubic Trendline. Add Non-linear terms to
Third step is to find
regression model if necessary
existing linear
1. Add quadratic terms
mathematical
2. Add cubic terms
One step
relationships which calls
6. Analyze residuals to validate assumptions
at a time.!
for a Prediction Equation
1. Normally distributed
then fourth to find the
2. Equal variance
potency or strength of the
3. Independence
linear relationship if one
4. Confirm one or two points do not overly influence model.
exists. Linear Regression
accompanied by the
variation of the input gives a variety of output results and a completion of the fifth step denoted,
the amount percentage a given output has. It also includes the answer to strength of statistical
confidence within our Linear Regression.
To conclude a Linear Regression exists; majority has that a 95% statistical confidence or above
has to be obtained. If unsatisfied conclusions are drawn, as a point of contingency, step 6 is
essential. At present, in step 6, we contemplate the potential Non-linear Regression. However,
this is only necessary if we can not find a Regression Equation (statistical and practical) variation
of output by way of scoping the input or by analyzing the model error for correctness. Step 7,
depicted subsequently, validates residuals are a necessity for a valid model.
Simple Regression Example
Recalling tools
learned in the
Analyze Phase,
presented here is a
Simple Regression
example examining a
piece of equipment
pertaining to a mining
company. This
diagram plots output
to input, following the
Regression steps.
Notice how the
equipment is agitated
by output of PGM
concentrate.
Opening the worksheet Concentrator will show how output is always applied to the Y axis
(dependent) as input is always applied to the X axis (independent).
439

Example Correlation
Identifying the
existing Linear
Regression is the
second step.
Having the
Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient at .847
and a P-value less
than .05, we see
with a very strong
statistical
confidence in a
Linear Regression.
If no Correlation
existed the
coefficient would
be closer to zero,
remember?
Example Regression Line
Now finding the Prediction Equation of the linear relationship, two factors; output response and
input variable. Grams per ton of the PGM concentrate is the output and the RPM of the agitator is
the input. Knowing that a positive slope exists, by a greater than zero Correlation Coefficient
indicates the agitators RPM increases in correlation with the PGM concentrate. The slope of
Linear Regression equals 1.333. Did you recall that the Pearson correlation coefficient exceeded
zero?
440

Example Linear Regression
Select SigmaXL>Statistical Tools>Regression>Multiple Regression. Select PGM concentrate (g/
ton) as Numeric Response (Y) and Agitator RPM as Continuous Predictor (X). Ensure that
Display Residuals is checked and Standardized Residuals are selected.
Shown here is the Multiple Regression output (Single X, Simple Linear Regression) explaining 70%
of the process variation. Highlighted above we see a potentially large residual. This was added
manually for illustration purposes. SigmaXL highlights standardized residual values greater than 3
or less than -3 to minimize false alarms. R squared, and R squared adjusted pertain to our full
Regression analysis. With these concerns the addition of Non-linear Regression terms might be in
consideration.
441

Example Regression Line
Notice how the new line is a more appropriate demonstration of our data since the curvature better
fits the plotted points. This is the essence of choosing quadratic Regression. This model option
can be used in Excel as follows:
1.Select the Trendline
2.Right Click and select Format Trendline
3.In the Trendline Options tab, select Polynomial Trend/Regression Type. Order 2 for quadratic,
Order 3 for cubic.
442

Residual Analysis Example
In order to create a
quadratic model
using SigmaXLs
Multiple Regression
tool, you will need to
square the data
being used as your
Continuous
Predictor. Then
select SigmaXL >
Statistical Tools>
Regression>
Multiple Regression.
Select both your
original and squared
columns as
continuous
predictors.
Ensure Display Residual Plots is checked and standardized residuals are selected.
Linear and Non-Linear Regression Example

We have here
both Regression
models. In terms
of R squared
being higher in
percentage rate
on the Non-linear
model as
apposed to that
of the Linear we
see more process
variation. In
addition, S
presents
estimated
Standard
Deviation of
errors, Non-linear
model has a
lower decimal.
Linear Model
More variation is explained using

the Non-linear model since the RSquared is higher and the S
statistic is lower which is the
estimated Standard Deviation of
the error in the model.
Non- Linear Model:
Let us now consider the model error. You need not be perplexed, model error has many variables.
Output dependency on the impact of other input variables and measurement system errors of
output and inputs can be causes.
443

By clicking the Residuals
worksheet, we now see all
analyses presented and
must keep in mind our
assumptions to consider the
possibilities of a valid
Regression. Residuals do
not have a pattern across
the data collected, however,
they do have a similar
variation across the board of
Fitted Values. Moreover, in a
valid Regression of all
residuals will be distributed.
Similarities between the
residuals across the Fitted
Values in the upper right
graph show no monumental
differences as to variation.
Random placement of the residuals are proven by the bottom right graph; no pattern is in essence.
Looking for Normality the bottom left graph (the Histogram) indicates we have a bell curve, as does
the upper right graph proving residuals placed near the straight line. Now, have we met the
necessary requirements of the criteria? With these randomly dispersed residual data points finding
the impact of just a single one is the confirmation.
Non-Linear Relationships Summary
M e th o d s to fin d N o n -lin e a r R e la tio n s h ip s :

S ca tte r P lo t in d ica tin g cu rv a tu re .
U n u s u a l o b s e rv a tio n s in Lin e a r R e g re s s io n m o d e l.
Tre n d s o f th e R e s id u a l v e rs u s th e Fitte d V a lu e s P lo t in
s im p le Lin e a r R e g re s s io n .
S u b je ct m a tte r e x p e rt k n o w le d g e o r te a m e x p e rie n ce .
When identifying Non-linear Relationships, looking at the graphical variation of output to input on
any given Scatter Plot the Non-linear relationship is self evident. Using step four of the Regression
Analysis methodology, unusual observation will ask us to focus deeper at Fitted Line Plots to see
what is the solution for the historical data. To detect Non-linearity carefully look at the Residuals
vs. Fitted Values graph of a Linear Regression. Finding clustering and/or trends of data one could
conclude a Non-linear Regression. Relying on a team or expert who has prior knowledge can avail
much information, also.
444

Types of Non-Linear Relationships
The simple
Linear model,
the quadratic
model, the
logarithm model
and the inverse
model define the
more
conventional
relationships
between outputs
and inputs.
Oh, which
which formula
f ormula
u se?!
Oh,
toto
use?!!
Mailing Response Example
Clip em!!
Open the worksheet Mailing Response vs. Discount. This shows transactions by a retail store
chain giving the relationship between discount percentages and the customer response. With the
input variable displayed in C1 and output displayed in C2, Belts need to establish which discount
rate will yield a 10% response from customers.
445

Mailing Response Scatter Plot
The output vs. the
input is
graphically plotted
with the output
plotted on the Yaxis. Notice we
have some
curvature in the
customer
response.
Mailing Response Correlation

Now we are testing
for a Linear
relationship by
running a
Correlation. The
results of the
analysis are a
strong confidence
level since the Pvalue is less than .
05.
Do you notice the
Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient is
almost 1.0? That
indicates a strong
correlation.
From SigmaXLs User Guide:
Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r)
0.9 <= |r| <=1
0.7 <= |r| < 0.9
|r| < 0.7
Pearson Probability, p > 0.05
R-Squared (%)
> 80 %
50 % to 80 %
< 50 %
Degree of association
Strong
Moderate
Weak
None
446

Mailing Response Fitted Line Plot
This model shows
a very high Rsquared at
94.51%. Having
noticed earlier the
apparent
curvature of the
data, the next
step is to consider
a Non-linear
Regression
Analysis. The
Scatter Plot has
been recreated
with Trendline
checked.
Mailing Response Non-Linear Fitted Line Plot
We are satisfied! The application of a Non-linear Regression Model shows an increased Rsquared.
447

In order to create a quadratic model using SigmaXLs Multiple Regression tool, you will need to
square the data being used as your Continuous Predictor. Then select SigmaXL > Statistical
Tools> Regression> Multiple Regression. Select both your original and squared columns as
continuous predictors.
Select SigmaXL > Statistical Tools> Regression> Multiple Regression.
I found some
Residuals!!
Confidence and Prediction Intervals

Keeping in mind
the original
question, the store
wants 10% of the
coupons redeemed
by their customers
so what discount
rate will generate
this response?
We will use the
Predicted
Response
Calculator to
answer this
question. This
calculator is
located to the right
of the regression
report.
Here we must use the Multiple Regression Tool rather than the Scatter Plot because SigmaXLs
Scatter Plots provide prediction and confidence intervals only for a Linear (1st Order) Trendline.
448

Confidence and Prediction Intervals (cont.)
Our analysis tells us that to get at least a 10% response from customers, we must offer a 19%
discount with our coupons.
This can be obtained through trial and error entry of % discount and calculated Discount
Sq (Enter =K12^2 in cell K13).
Having less data available to predict the Regression Equation usually causes the Confidence Interval
to flare out at the extreme ends. If a prediction equation exists, it would be found within the red lines
indicating the Confidence Interval at the 95% confidence level.
Considering the question of yielding 10% or more, finding the Regression Equation is of menial
importance compared to estimating where the data ought to predict the relationship. The
Prediction Interval will provide a degree of confidence in how the customers will respond. This
estimate is of great importance.
449

Residual Analysis
Confirming the validity, taking into consideration our residuals and completing step six is next.
Having a variation of outputs is due to a high level in R-squared, but from that information we can
not draw the conclusion its a sufficient model. We can have confidence in our model because all
three assumptions are satisfied; outputs are Normally and Randomly Distributed across the
observation order and have similar variance across the Fitted Values. The store should give a
discount of 19% expecting at least a 10% response from customers.
Now does the present data for the response fit the equation as predicted?
450

Transforming Process Data
In th e ca s e w h e re d a ta is N o n -lin e a r it is p o s s ib le to p e rfo rm
R e g re s s io n u s in g tw o d iffe re n t m e th o d s :
N o n -lin e a r R e g re s s io n (a lre a d y d is cu s s e d )
Lin e a r R e g re s s io n o n tra n s fo rm e d d a ta
Eith e r th e X o r Y m a y b e tra n s fo rm e d .
A n y s ta tis tica l to o ls th a t re q u ire s tra n s fo rm a tio n u s e s th e s e
m e th o d s .
A d v a n ta g e s o f tra n s fo rm in g d a ta :
Lin e a r R e g re s s io n is e a s ie r to v is u a lly u n d e rs ta n d a n d
m a na g e.
N o n -n o rm a l d a ta ca n b e ch a n g e d to r e s e m b le N o r m a l d a ta
fo r s ta tis tica l a n a ly s e s w h e re N o rm a lity is re q u ire d .
D is a d v a n ta g e s o f tra n s fo rm in g d a ta :
D ifficu lt to u n d e rs ta n d tr a n s fo rm e d u n its .
D ifficu lt w ith o u t a u to m a tio n o r co m p u te rs .
Majority has it that Belts find data that is abnormally distributed. We have learned how to do Nonlinear Regression, but another approach is to transform it into Linear Regression. Outputs or
inputs can be transformed and many people will wonder, What's the point? Simplicity is the
answer and has a great deal of value.
451

Effect of Transformation
Using a mathematical function we have transformed this data. This example shows how taking a
square root of this data yields a Normal distribution. The challenge then is to find the appropriate
transform function.
Transforming Data Using SigmaXL
Select worksheet: Transform

In finding an appropriate transform SigmaXL performs a function to aid the Belt, this is known as
Box Cox Transformation.
452

Box Cox Transform
Selecting a transform, in the upper graph SigmaXL presents a lambda of .5, the lambda is a
mathematical function applied to the data. In taking a square root, you can notice two probabilities
of plots in the graphs below. The right plot obviously shows a new data set after having been
transformed by the square root and the left showing Non-normal distribution with red dots away
from the blue line symbolized by a P-value of under .05.
The transformed data is stored in the worksheet: Box-Cox column Transformed Data
(Y**0.500000).
This tool can also be found under Process Capability > Nonnormal> Box-Cox Transformation and
Control Charts> Nonnormal> Box-Cox Transformation>.
Box-Cox is also included with automated distribution fitting (Process Capability >
Nonnormal>Distribution Fitting)
453

Transforming Without the Box Cox Routine
Using Excel, calculate the square root of each observation in Pos Skew and store in E, calling it
Transformed.
Finding that the new data is Normally Distributed after creating the transformed data set is
necessary.
Remembering from the Measure Phase the Graphical Tools > Normal Probability Plot and
Statistical Tools>Descriptive Statistics command is now of great importance. Interestingly enough
the Box Cox found the best transformation was the same square root we executed.
454

Multiple Linear Regression
R e g re s s io n s a re ru n o n h is to r ica l p r o ce s s d a ta . It is N O T a fo r m o f
e x p e rim e n ta tio n .
M u ltip le Lin e a r R e g re s s io n in v e s tig a te s m u ltip le in p u t v a ria b le s e ffe ct o n
a n o u tp u t s im u lta n e o u s ly .
If R 2 is n o t a s h ig h a s d e s ire d in th e S im p le Lin e a r R e g re s s io n .
P ro ce s s k n o w le d g e im p lie s m o re th a n o n e in p u t a ffe cts th e o u tp u t.
Th e a s s u m p tio n s fo r r e s id u a ls w ith S im p le R e g re s s io n s a re s till n e ce s s a ry
fo r M u ltip le Lin e a r R e g re s s io n s .
A n a d d itio n a l a s s u m p tio n fo r M LR is th e in d e p e n d e n ce o f p re d icto r s (X s ).
M IN ITA B TM ca n te s t fo r m u ltico llin e a rity (co rre la tio n b e tw e e n th e
p re d icto r s o r X s ).
M o d e l e rr o r (r e s id u a ls ) is im p a cte d b y th e a d d itio n o f m e a s u re m e n t e r ro r
fo r a ll th e in p u t v a ria b le s .
In a quick review, we only do Regression on historical data and Regression is not applied to
experimental data. Furthermore, we covered performing Regression involving one input and one
output. Now taking into account Multiple Linear Regressions and when they are applicable, allows
us to identify Linear Regression including one output and more than one input at the same time.
If you havent identified enough of the output variation, recall briefly R-squared measures the
amount of variation for the output in Correlation with the input you selected. In looking at the
equations here we can assume that in Multiple Linear Regressions each input are independent of
one another, no Correlation exists. Having the inputs independent of one another gives each of
them their own slope. Also we see the epsilon at the end of the equation representing the fact that
every Regression has model error.
455

Definitions of MLR Equation Elements
Th e d e fin itio n s fo r th e e le m e n ts o f th e M u ltip le Lin e a r R e g re s s i o n
m o d e l a re a s fo llo w s :
Y = 0+ 1X1 + 2X2 + 3X3 +

Y = Th e r e s p o n s e (d e p e n d e n t) v a ria b le .
X 1 , X 2 , X 3 : Th e p re d icto r (in d e p e n d e n t) in p u ts . Th e p re d icto r
v a ria b le s u s e d to e x p la in th e v a ria tio n in th e o b s e rv e d re s p o n s e
v a ria b le , Y .
0 : Th e v a lu e o f Y w h e n a ll th e e x p la n a to ry v a ria b le s (th e X s ) a re
e q u a l to z e ro .
1 , 2 , 3 (P a rtia l R e g re s s io n C o e fficie n t): Th e a m o u n t b y w h ich
th e re s p o n s e v a ria b le (Y ) ch a n g e s w h e n th e co rre s p o n d in g X i
ch a n g e s b y o n e u n it w ith th e o th e r in p u t v a ria b le s re m a in in g
co n s ta n t.
(Erro r o r R e s id u a l): Th e o b s e rv e d Y m in u s th e p re d icte d v a lu e o f
Y fro m th e R e g re s s io n .
Simple linear equations and multiple linear equations are very similar, however each in Multiple
Linear Regression there is partial regression coefficient and beta one and beta zero apply to
Simple Linear Regressions. Earlier we did Regressions in this module, do you recall the
residuals we had? Residuals are defined as the observed value minus the predicted value.
MLR Step Review
Th e b a s ic s te p s to fo llo w in m u ltip le lin e a r reg re s s io n a re :

1 . C re a te m a trix p lo t (G ra p h > M a trix P lo t)
2 . R u n B e s t S u b s e ts R e g re s s io n (S ta t> R e g r e s s io n > B e s t S u b s e ts )
3 . Ev a lu a te R 2 , a d ju s te d R 2 , M a llo w s C p , n u m b e r o f p re d icto rs
a n d S .
4 . Ite ra tiv e ly d e te rm in e a p p ro p ria te R e g re s s io n m o d e l.
(S ta t> R e g re s s io n > R e g r e s s io n > O p tio n s )
5 . A n a ly z e re s id u a ls (S ta t> R e g r e s s io n > R e g re s s io n > G ra p h s )

1 . N o rm a lly d is trib u te d
2 . Eq u a l v a ria n ce
3 . In d e p e n d e n ce
4 . C o n firm o n e o r tw o p o in ts d o n o t o v e rly in flu e n ce m o d e l.
6 . V e rify y o u r m o d e l b y ru n n in g p re s e n t p ro ce s s d a ta to co n firm
y o u r m o d e l e rro r.
With many different input variables on hand and only one output it can be so tedious to find if
variations come from one particular input, using a Matrix Plot can greatly speed up the process and
it will show which is impacting the output the most. After narrowing the field of variables use the
best given command to complete the Multiple Linear Regression, we identify the correct command
by examining R-squared, R-squared adjustable, #s of predictors, S variable and Mallows Cp;
following this we must iteratively confirm inputs are statistically significantly. We have then only
confirmation of this valid model and we MUST especially in consideration for Multiple Linear
Regressions process and witness the presently performing Regression.
456

Multiple Linear Regression Model Selection
Its in our best interest to use the least confusing Multiple Linear Regression model, using
these particular guidelines.
Flight Regression Example
Select the Flight Regression MLR worksheet to see historical data being analyzed by an airplane
manufacturer. Output is listed as flight speeds and the other columns contain input variables. With
these we will build a Scatter Plot Matrix and witness the possibility of relationships among the
variables come to fruition.
457

Flight Regression Example Matrix Plot
Now we are given a
fairly confusing graph
of outputs and inputs to
interpret. Do not be
discouraged, this is just
a plethora of
sporadically plotted,
outputs and inputs,
flight speeds vs.
altitudes. Seeing at
least two inputs having
Correlation shows the
need to continue with a
Multiple Linear
Regression. The lower
half has identical data
as the upper half of the
outputs just the axis are
not reversed.
Flight Regression Example Model Selection
Select Statistical Tools > Regression > Multiple Regression. Select Flight Speed as Numeric
Response (Y), and Select all inputs as Continuous Predictors (X).
SigmaXL V6 currently includes Multiple Regression but does not include Best Subsets or Stepwise
Regression. However, you can easily add or remove terms from the model using Recall SigmaXL
Dialog.
458

Flight Regression Example Model Selection (cont.)
The VIF for temp indicates it should

be removed from the model.
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) detects Correlation among predictors.

VIF = 1 indicates no relation among predictors
VIF > 1 indicates predictors are correlated to some degree
VIF between 5 and 10 indicates Regression Coefficients are poorly
estimated and are unacceptable.
Do you notice any similarities here? A foreign column has appeared, labeled VIF, this indicates if a
high Correlation among inputs exists. Temp has a high VIF, so we will remove it.
The VIF values are NOW acceptable.

Evaluate the P-values:
If p > 0.05, the term(s) should be removed
from the Regression.
Remove Altitude, re-run model.
Use Recall SigmaXL Dialog and remove the Temp variable. Note that Altitude now has a
P-Value > 0.05. Again use Recall SigmaXL Dialog and remove Altitude.
459

Flight Regression Example Model Selection (cont.)
The P-value for Turbine Angle

is P > 0.05 which indicates it
should be removed and re-run.
Re-run the
Regression
After removing Altitude from the model we now see that Turbine Angle is not statistically
significant.
Shown here is the entire Regression output for a complete discussion of the final Multiple Linear
Regression model. We have 2 predictor variables and all are statistically significant.
Also shown above is a portion of the residuals report showing a high leverage observation and
large standardized residual. If possible these data points should be examined.
460

Flight Regression Example Residual Analysis
How do we do this? Graph it and use the appropriate commands to analyze.
Now having a final model, it is VITAL to confirm the residuals are correct and the model is valid.
Select the Mult Reg Residuals worksheet. It appears our model is valid and the Residuals are
satisfactory!
461

Perform Non-Linear Regression Analysis
Perform Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (MLR)
Examine Residuals Analysis and understand its effects
You have now completed Improve Phase Advanced Process Modeling.
Notes
462
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Designing Experiments
Now we are going to continue with the Improve Phase Designing Experiments.
463
Overview
Within this
module we
will provide an
introduction to
Design of
Experiments,
explain what
they are, how
they work and
when to use
them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to Im
Im ppro
rovvee
PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
ionn
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
lingg : :
M
LR
M LR
Rea
Reasons for Experiments
sons for Experiments
D
Deessig
ig nnin
ingg Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
GG ra
raphical A
phical Analysis
nalysis
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennta
ta l l M
Meeth
thooddss
DO
DO E Methodolog
E Methodologyy
Fu
Full
ll Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Fra
Fra ctio
ctionnaa l l Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Project Status Review
U n d e r s ta n d o u r p r o b le m a n d it s im p a ct o n th e b u s in e s s .
(D e fin e )
Es ta b lis h e d fir m o b je ctiv e s / g o a ls fo r im p r o v e m e n t. (D e fin e )
Q u a n tifie d o u r o u tp u t ch a r a cte r is tic. (D e fin e )
V a lid a te d th e m e a s u r e m e n t s y s te m fo r o u r o u tp u t
ch a r a cte r is tic. (M e a s u r e )
Id e n tifie d th e p r o ce s s in p u t v a r ia b le s in o u r p r o ce s s .
(M e a s u r e )
N a r r o w e d o u r in p u t v a r ia b le s to th e p o te n tia l X s th r o u g h
S ta tis tica l A n a ly s is . (A n a ly z e )
S e le cte d th e v ita l fe w X s to o p tim iz e th e o u tp u t r e s p o n s e (s ).
(Im p r o v e )
Q u a n tifie d th e r e la tio n s h ip o f th e Y s to th e X s w ith Y = f(x ).
(Im p r o v e )
Keep an eye on where youve been!!

464
Six Sigma Strategy
This is reoccurring awareness. By using tools we filter the variables of defects. When talking of
the Improve Phase in the Six Sigma methodology we are confronted by many Designed
Experiments; transactional, manufacturing, research.
Reasons for Experiments
Th e A n a ly z e P h a s e n a rro w e d d o w n th e m a n y in p u ts to a critica l
fe w , n o w it is n e ce s s a ry to d e te rm in e th e p ro p e r s e ttin g s fo r th e
v ita l fe w in p u ts b e ca u s e :
Th e v ita l fe w p o te n tia lly h a v e in te ra ctio n s .
Th e v ita l fe w w ill h a v e p re fe rre d ra n g e s to a ch ie v e o p tim a l re s u lts .
C o n firm ca u s e a n d e ffe ct re la tio n s h ip s a m o n g fa cto rs id e n tifie d in

a n a ly z e p h a s e (e .g . re g re s s io n )
U n d e rs ta n d in g th e re a s o n fo r a n e x p e rim e n t ca n h e lp in s e le ctin g
th e d e s ig n a n d fo cu s in g th e e ffo rts o f a n e x p e rim e n t.
R e a s o n s fo r e x p e rim e n tin g a re :
P ro b le m S o lv in g (Im p ro v in g a p ro ce s s re s p o n s e )
O p tim iz in g (H ig h e s t y ie ld o r lo w e s t cu s to m e r co m p la in ts )
R o b u s tn e s s (C o n s ta n t re s p o n s e tim e )
S cre e n in g (Fu rth e r s cr e e n in g o f th e critica l fe w to th e v ita l

fe w X s )
Desig n youre
where y going
oure g-oing
- be s ure
et there!
Design where
be sure
youy ou
getg there!!
Designs of Experiments help the Belt to understand the cause and effect between the process
output or outputs of interest and the vital few inputs. Some of these causes and effects may
include the impact of interactions often referred to synergistic or cancelling effects.
465
Desired Results of Experiments
Designed
experiments
allows us to
describe a
mathematical
relationship
between the
inputs and
outputs.
However, often
the mathematical
equation is not
necessary or used
depending on the
focus of the
experiment.
P ro b le m S o lv in g
Elimina te defective products or services.
Reduce cycle time of ha ndling tra nsa ctiona l processes.
O p tim iz in g
Ma thema tica l model is desired to move the process response.
O pportunity to meet differing customer requirements (specifica tions or
VO C ).
R o b u s t D e s ig n
Provide consistent process or product performa nce.
Desensitiz e the output response(s) to input va ria ble cha ng es including
N O IS E va ria bles.
Desig n processes knowing which input va ria bles a re difficult to ma inta in.
S cre e n in g
Pa st process data is limited or sta tistica l conclusions prevented g ood
na rrowing of critica l fa ctors in A na lyz e Pha se
When iti t rains

rains it
i t PPORS!!
OR S !
When
DOE Models vs. Physical Models
Here we have models that are the result of designed experiments. Many have difficulty determining
DOE models from that of physical models. A physical model includes: biology, chemistry, physics
and usually many variables, typically using complexities and calculus to describe. The DOE model
doesnt include any variables or complex calculus: it includes most important variables and shows
variation of data collected. DOE will focus on the specific region of interest.
What are the differences between DOE modeling and physical

models?
A physical model is known by theory using concepts of physics,
chemistry, biology, etc...
Physical models explain outside area of immediate project needs and
include more variables than typical DOE models.
DOE describes only a small region of the experimental space.
The objective is to
minimize the response.
The physical model is
not important for our
business objective. The
DOE Model will focus in
the region of interest.
466
Definition for Design of Experiments
D e s ig n o f Ex p e r im e n ts (D O E) is a s cie n tific m e th o d o f
p la n n in g a n d co n d u ctin g a n e x p e rim e n t th a t w ill y ie ld
th e tru e ca u s e -a n d -e ffe ct re la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n th e X
v a ria b le s a n d th e Y v a ria b le s o f in te re s t.
D O E a llo w s th e e x p e rim e n te r to s tu d y th e e ffe ct o f m a n y
in p u t v a ria b le s th a t m a y in flu e n ce th e p ro d u ct o r p ro ce s s
s im u lta n e o u s ly , a s w e ll a s p o s s ib le in te ra ctio n e ffe cts (fo r
e x a m p le s y n e rg is tic e ffe cts ).
Th e e n d re s u lt o f m a n y e x p e rim e n ts is to d e s crib e th e
re s u lts a s a m a th e m a tica l fu n ctio n .
y = f (x )
Th e g o a l o f D O E is to fin d a d e s ig n th a t w ill p ro d u ce th e
in fo rm a tio n re q u ire d a t a m in im u m co s t.
Design of Experiment
shows the cause and effect
relationship of variables of
interest X and Y. By way of
input variables, designed
experiments have been
noted within the Analyze
Phase then are executed in
the Improve Phase. DOE
tightly controls the input
variables and carefully
monitors the uncontrollable
variables.
Properly designed DOEs are more efficient experiments.
One Factor at a Time is NOT a DOE

Lets assume a Belt has
found in the Analyze Phase
that pressure and
temperature impact his
process and no one knows
what yield is achieved for the
possible temperature and
pressure combinations.
O n e Fa cto r a t a Tim e (O FA T) is a n e x p e rim e n ta l s ty le b u t n o t a

p la n n e d e x p e rim e n t o r D O E.
Th e g ra p h ic s h o w s y ie ld co n to u rs fo r a p ro ce s s th a t a re
u n k n o w n to th e e x p e rim e n te r.
Yield Contours Are
Unknown To Experimenter
75
Pressure (psi)
80
Trial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Temp
125
125
125
125
125
130
120
Press
30
31
32
33
34
33
33
Yield
74
80
85
92
86
85
90
135
85
If a Belt inefficiently did a One
6
130
Factor at a Time experiment
90
1
3
2
5
O ptimum identified
4
125
(referred to as OFAT), one
with O FA T
95
120
7
variable would be selected to
change first while the other
True O ptimum available
variable is held constant,
34 35
30 31 32 33
with DO E
once the desired result was
Temperature (C)
observed, the first variable
is set at that level and the second variable is changed. Basically, you pick the winner of the
combinations tested.
The curves shown on the graph above represent a constant process yield if the Belt knew the
theoretical relationships of all the variables and the process output of pressure. These contour lines
are familiar if youve ever done hiking in the mountains and looked at an elevation map which shows
contours of constant elevation. As a test we decided to increase temperature to achieve a higher
yield. After achieving a maximum yield with temperature, we then decided to change the other factor,
pressure. We then came to the conclusion the maximum yield is near 92% because it was the
highest yield noted in our 7 trials.
With the Six Sigma methodology, we use DOE which would have found a higher yield using
equations. Many sources state that OFAT experimentation is inefficient when compared with DOE
methods. Some people call it hit or miss. Luck has a lot to do with results using OFAT methods.
467
Types of Experimental Designs
DOE is iterative in
nature and may require
more than one
experiment at times.
As we learn more about
the important variables,
our approach will
change as well. If we
have a very good
understanding of our
process maybe we will
only need one
experiment, if not we
very well may need a
series of experiments.
Fractional Factorials or screening designs are used when the process or product knowledge is low.
We may have a long list of possible input variables (often referred to as factors) and need to screen
them down to a more reasonable or workable level.
Full Factorials are used when it is necessary to fully understand the effects of interactions and when
there are between 2 to 5 input variables.
Response surface methods (not typically applicable) are used to optimize a response typically when
the response surface has significant curvature.
Value Chain
Full factorial designs
are generally noted as
2 to the k where k is
number of input
variables or factors and
2 is the number of
levels all factors used.
In the table, two levels
and four factors are
shown; by using the
formula, how many
runs would be involved
in this design? 16 is
the answer, of course.
Th e g en era l n o ta tio n u s ed to d es ig n a te a fu ll fa cto ria l

d es ig n is g iv en b y :
W h ere k is th e n u m b er o f in p u t v a ria b les o r fa cto rs .

2 is th e n u m b er o f lev els th a t w ill b e u s ed fo r ea ch
fa cto r.
Q u a n tita tiv e o r q u a lita tiv e fa cto rs ca n b e u s ed .
468
Visualization of 2 Level Full Factorial
Lets consider a 2 squared
design which means we have 2
300
levels for 2 factors. The factors
Temp
of interest are temperature and
350
2
pressure. There are several
500
ways to visualize this 2 level
Press
Full Factorial design. In
600
Uncoded levels for factors
experimenting we often use
whats called coded variables.
Coding simplifies the notation.
T
P T*P
The low level for a factor is
-1
-1 +1
minus one, the high level is plus
+1
-1
-1
one. Coding is not very friendly
-1
+1 -1
when trying to run an
+1
+1 +1
experiment so we use uncoded
Coded levels for factors
or actual variable levels. In our
example 300 degrees is the low
level, 500 degrees is the high level for temperature.
2
(+1,+1)
(-1,+1)
600
Press
500
(+1,-1)
(-1,-1)
300F
Temp
350F
Fo u r e x p e rim e n ta l ru n s :
Te m p = 3 0 0 , P re s s = 5 0 0
Te m p = 3 5 0 , P re s s = 5 0 0
Te m p = 3 0 0 , P re s s = 6 0 0
Te m p = 3 5 0 , P re s s = 6 0 0
Back when we had to calculate the effects of experiments by hand it was much simpler to use
coded variables. Also when you look at the prediction equation generated you could easily tell
which variable had the largest effect. Coding also helps us explain some of the math involved in
DOE.
Fortunately for us, SigmaXL calculates the equations for both coded and non-coded data.
Graphical DOE Analysis - The Cube Plot
C o n s id er a 2 3 d e s ig n o n a ca ta p u lt...
8.2
4.55
Run
Start
Number Angle
3.35
Stop Angle
The representation
here has two cubed
designs and 2
levels of three
factors and shows
a treatment
combination table
using coded inputs
level settings. The
table has 8
experimental runs.
Run 5 shows start
angle, stop angle
very low and the
fulcrum relatively
high.
1.5
5.15
2.4
Fulcrum
2.1
Start Angle
0.9
Response
Stop
Angle
Fulcrum
Meters
Traveled
-1
-1
-1
2.10
-1
-1
0.90
-1
-1
3.35
-1
1.50
-1
-1
5.15
-1
2.40
-1
8.20
4.55
W h a t a re th e in p u ts b e in g m a n ip u la te d in th is d e s ig n ?
H o w m a n y ru n s a re th e re in th is e x p erim e n t?
469
Graphical DOE Analysis - The Cube Plot (cont.)
The Main Effects Plot
shown here displays
the effect that the
input values have on
the output response.
The Y axis is the
same for each of the
plots so they can be
compared side by
side.
Which has the
steepest Slope?
What has the largest
impact on the output?
Hint: Check the slope!!
Answer > Fulcrum
Main Effects Plots Creation

In order to create
the Main Effects
Plot we must be
able to calculate
the average
response at the
low and high levels
for each Main
Effect. The coded
values are used to
show which
responses must be
used to calculate
the average Lets
review what is
happening on this
slide. How many
experimental runs
were operated with
the start angle at the high level or 1. The answer is 4 experimental runs shows the process to run
with the start angle at the high level. The 4 experimental runs running with the start angle at the high
level are run number 2, 4, 6 and 8. If we take the 4 distances or process output and take the
average, we see the average distance when the process had the start angle running at the high level
was 2.34 meters. The second dot from the left in the Main Effects Plots shows the distance of 2.34
with the start angle at a high level.
470
Interaction Definition
Interactions occur when variables act together to impact the output of the process. Interactions
plots are constructed by plotting both variables together on the same graph. They take the form
of the graph below. Note that in this graph, the relationship between variable A and Y changes
as the level of variable B changes. When B is at its high (+) level, variable A has almost
no effect on Y. When B is at its low (-) level, A has a strong effect on Y. The feature of
interactions is non-parallelism between the two lines.
Degrees of Interaction Effect

Degrees of
interaction can be
related to nonparallelism and the
more non-parallel the
lines are the stronger
the interaction.
S ome Interaction
High
Low
N o Interaction
BB+
B+
Full Reversal
High
High
BY
Low
B+
B-
Y
B+
Low
+
+
+
A
A
A
A common
S
trong
Interaction
Moderate Reversal
misunderstanding is
High
High
that that the lines
BBmust actually cross
each other for an
Y
Y
interaction to exist
B+
but thats NOT true.
B+
B+
Low
Low
The lines may cross
+
+
A
A
at some level
OUTSIDE of the
experimental region, but we really dont know that. Parallel lines show absolutely no interaction
and in all likelihood will never cross.
471
Interaction Plot Creation
Calculating the points to plot the interaction is not as straight forward as it was in the Main Effects
Plot. Here we have four points to plot and since there are only 8 data points each average will be
created using data points from 2 experimental runs. This plot is the interaction of Fulcrum with
Start Angle on the distance. Starting with the point indicated with the green arrow above we must
find the response data when the fulcrum is set low and start angle is set high (notice the color
coding SigmaXL uses on the right side of the chart). The point indicated with the purple arrow is
where fulcrum is set high and start angle is high. Take a few moments to verify the remaining two
points plotted.
Interaction Plot (data means) for Distance
6.5
-1
1
5.5
Mean
Start Angle
4.5
3.5
2.5
(4 .5 5 + 2 .4 0 )/ 2 = 3 .4 8
1.5
(0 .9 0 + 1 .5 0 )/ 2 = 1 .2 0
Run #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-1
Fulcrum
Start Angle Stop Angle

-1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
Fulcrum
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
Distance
2.10
0.90
3.35
1.50
5.15
2.40
8.20
4.55
Lets review what is happening here. The dot indicated by the green arrow is the Mean distance
when the fulcrum is at the low level as indicated by a -1 and when the start angle is at the high
level as indicated by a 1. Earlier we said the point indicated by the green arrow had the fulcrum at
the low level and the start angle at the high level. Experimental runs 2 and 4 had the process
running at those conditions so the distance from those two experimental runs is averaged and
plotted in reference to a value of 1.2 on the vertical axis. You can note the red dotted line shown is
for when the start angle is at the high level as indicated by a 1.
472
Graphical DOE Analysis - The Interaction Plots
Based on how
many factors
you select
SigmaXL will
create a number
of interaction
plots.
Here there are 3
factors selected
so it generates
the 3 interaction
plots. These are
referred to as 2way interactions.
SigmaXL also plots the mirror images, just in case it is easier to interpret with the variables flipped.
These mirror images present the same data but visually may be easier to understand.
473
DOE Methodology
1 . D e fin e th e p ra ctica l p ro b le m
2 . Es ta b lis h th e e x p e rim en ta l o b je ctiv e
3 . S e le ct th e o u tp u t (res p o n s e ) v a ria b le s
4 . S e le ct th e in p u t (in d e p e n d e n t) v a ria b le s
5 . C h o o s e th e le v e ls fo r th e in p u t v a ria b le s
6 . S e le ct th e e x p erim e n ta l d e s ig n
7 . Ex e cu te th e e x p e rim e n t a n d co llect d a ta
8 . A n a ly z e th e d a ta fro m th e d e s ig n e d e x p e rim e n t a n d
d ra w s ta tis tica l co n clu s io n s
9 . D ra w p ra ctica l s o lu tio n s
1 0 .R e p lica te o r v a lid a te th e e x p e rim e n ta l re s u lts
1 1 .Im p le m e n t s o lu tio n s
Generate Full Factorial Designs in SigmaXL

It is easy to
generate Full
Factorial Designs in
SigmaXL. Follow
the command path
shown here. This is
the Factorial/
Screening Design
dialog. The next
slide will explain the
different options
available to you
through this dialog
box.
In the Select
Design drop down
selection, you can
choose full factorial
or fractional factorial
designs. Resolution
III designs are
screening designs and should be used with caution. Resolution IV designs can be tricky because
there are aliased two-way interactions. It is best, if possible, to use Resolution V or higher designs.
These design options will be discussed in detail later.
474
Create Three Factor Full Factorial Design
Lets create a three factor Full Factorial Design using the SigmaXL command shown at the top of
the slide. The design we selected will give us all possible experimental combinations of 3 factors
using 2 levels for each factor.
Be sure to change the Number of factors: to 3. Also be sure not to select the 8-Run, 2**3, FullFactorial line within the Designs box.
In the Randomize Runs box, one can change the order of the experimental runs. To view the
design in standard order (not randomized for now) be sure to uncheck the default of Randomize
Runs. Un-checking means no checkmark is in the white box next to Randomize Runs.
Now, we need to
enter the names of
the three factors as
well as the Low
and High values
that we want as
levels.
Remember when
we discussed noncoded levels? The
process settings of
140 and 180 for the
start angle are
examples of noncoded levels.
475
Three Factor Full Factorial Design
Here is the worksheet SigmaXL creates. If you had left the Randomize Runs selection checked,
your design would be in a different order than shown. Notice the structure of the last 3 columns
where the factors are shown. The first factor, Start Angle, goes from low to high as you read down
the column. The second factor, Stop Angle, has 2 low then 2 high all the way down the column and
the third factor, Fulcrum, has 4 low then 4 high. Notice the structure just keeps doubling the
pattern. If we had created a 4 factor Full Factorial Design the fourth factor column would have had
8 rows at the low setting then 8 rows at the high setting. You can see it is very easy to create a Full
Factorial Design. This standard order as we call it is not however the recommended order in which
an experiment should be run. We will discuss this in detail as we continue through the modules.
Hold on! Here we go.!

One warning to you as a new Belt using SigmaXL never copy, paste, delete or move DOE
columns, SigmaXL may not recognize the design you are attempting to use.
Is our experiment done? Not at all. The process must now be run at the 8 experimental set of
conditions shown above and the output or outputs of interest must be recorded yellow column(s).
After we have collected the data we will then analyze the experiment. Remember the 11 step
DOE methodology from earlier?
476
Determine the reason for experimenting
Describe the difference between a physical model and

a DOE model
Explain an OFAT experiment and its primary weakness
Shown Main Effects Plots and interactions, determine

which effects and interactions may be significant
Create a Full Factorial Design
You have now completed Improve Phase Designing Experiments.
Notes
477
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Experimental Methods
Now we will continue with the Improve Phase Experimental Methods.
478
Within this module
we will go through
a basic introduction
to Designing
Experiments
Welc
Welcome to Improve
ome to Improve
PProc
roces
esss M
Modeling
odeling: : RReg
egres
resssion
ion
Advanc
Advanced
ed PProc
roces
esss M
Modeling
odeling: :
ML
R
ML R
Des
Desig
igning
ning EE xperiments
xperiments
Methodology
Methodology
EE xperimental
xperimental M
Methods
ethods
CC ons
onsiderations
iderations
FFull
ull FFac
actorial
torial EE xperiments
xperiments
SS teps
teps
FFrac
ractional
tional FFac
actorial
xperiments
Wrap
Wrap UUp
p &
& Ac
Action
tion IItems
tems
DOE Methodology
In this module we will describe the 11 step DOE methodology some basic concepts and lots of
fun and exciting terminology. Once again great content for dinner conversation later tonight!
1 . D e fin e th e P ra ctica l P ro b le m
2 . Es ta b lis h th e Ex p e rim e n ta l O b je ctiv e
3 . S e le ct th e O u tp u t (re s p o n s e ) V a ria b le s
4 . S e le ct th e In p u t (in d e p e n d e n t) V a ria b le s
5 . C h o o s e th e Le v e ls fo r th e in p u t v a ria b le s
6 . S e le ct th e Ex p e rim e n ta l D e s ig n
7 . Ex e cu te th e e x p e rim e n t a n d C o lle ct D a ta
8 . A n a ly z e th e d a ta fro m th e D e s ig n e d Ex p e rim e n t a n d
d ra w S ta tis tica l C o n clu s io n s
9 . D ra w P ra ctica l S o lu tio n s
1 0 .R e p lica te o r v a lid a te th e e x p e rim e n ta l re s u lts
1 1 .Im p le m e n t S o lu tio n s
479
Questions to Design Selection
So youve decided to use Designed Experiments. Shown here are ten basic Project Management
considerations before running any experiment. This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but certainly
some important questions to consider and answer.
What is behind some of these questions? Lets briefly discuss a few aspects individually.
1. Access to a process is necessary for proper monitoring and execution of a project. If restricted
access for whatever reason exists, then work around must exist.
2. If the team members or subject matter experts arent fully involved, then potential conflicts or
unrealistic designs may be awaiting you for a poor experiment.
3. If the Process Owners and stakeholders are unknown to you before execution of an experiment
rude awakenings such as cancellations, scheduling conflicts and other nightmares can occur.
4. No one wants to be told what will happen to the process they are managing so if you dont involve
them in the experimental design even if it involves reviewing the teams designed experiment, how do
you expect cooperation?
5. If the Process Owners dont understand what your DOE is, how can they assist you?
6. Does your DOE intend to make a wide range of quality product or potentially produce an
unacceptable product in the quest to improve the process? If the Process Owner has never known
what your DOE intentions were, how can they not be upset if they are surprised by the results of the
DOE?
7. Time and money impact scheduling, randomization, testing concerns. All of these must be
considered especially when using the actual process.
8. It is often desirable to run DOEs in a pilot plant or facility but this is not often the case. If a pilot
facility is to be used, do the results match the process when translated outside of the laboratory?
9. Noise variables cannot be controlled, by definition, but if ambient weather is considered to have an
effect on your process, why would you execute an experiment when a cold or warm front is passing
through your area. This is one example of a known disturbance being designed around.
10. Manage your project to know if the DOE is intended to stretch the boundaries of conceived product
creation or work well within a small experimental area.
There are many considerations to consider. Often learning comes through experience so if you are
unsure about your future experiment in this project or another, consult with mentors or Six Sigma belts.
480
Questions to Design Selection (cont.)
These questions need be answered before running an experiment.
DOE Methodology Step 1

First define the
problem in a
practical sense.
Will we achieve all
that is necessary?
Might it require
multiple
experiments?
Notice an
example of this
shown here.
481
In Step 2, we have to determine the critical characteristics and the desired outcome. This gives us
our critical characteristic.

Step 3 is knowing that a DOE is going to be performed, does it makes sense to go an extra mile?
Lets get our moneys worth by measuring more than one output if it could benefit us in any way.
482
Step 4 is to select the Input or independent Variables. At this point you should have a decent
understanding of the variables that need to be explored as a result of the work accomplished in
the previous phases.

Step 5 is to choose
the levels for the
input variables. The
factor levels must be
considered to create
the desired change
in the output
response as
identified in Step 3.
Poor choices for
input variable level
settings could very
well render an
experiment useless
so be smart.
483
DOE Methodology Step 5 (cont.)
Do not set the levels too wide, this may cause our experiment to lose very valuable output response.
Making an assumption by way of drawing what you have in your mind of what it will look like, helps a
great deal.
Be aware you do not want to set the factor levels too low either. We could be shown no difference in
output to input relationship.
484
Input variable level settings
should be set far enough
apart to detect a difference
in the response and to have
enough statistical
confidence in the change of
the output relative to the
experimental noise.
Assume this graphic was a
sketch generated from our
basic understanding of the
theory. We dont know
exactly what factor setting
would produce the output
response but we do know
the general shape of the
curve. Notice that we
stayed away from the sharp
peak. It is very easy to
slide off such a steep peak, unless your process controls are very tight it would be better to find the
nice robust region where the output response is high but flat, meaning that the factor settings can
change a bit, but it does not have much effect on the output response. If the concern for spending
too much time on this comes up, also, consider how many defects are taken in when the statistical
significance is deemed inadequate.
You might think we have spent too much time on just setting the levels for the input variables or
factors in your experiment. However, consider the learning of others who have had to go back to
their Process Owners or Champions and explain that no factors were deemed statistically
significant because the design was inadequate.
Step 6 is to select the
Experimental Design.
485
Step 6 involves
selecting the
Experimental Design.
DOEs can be
designed in many ways
but balanced and
orthogonal designs are
highly encouraged.
SigmaXL will always
design a balanced and
orthogonal design if
you use the program to
design your
experiment.
Balanced and orthog onal desig ns are hig hly encourag ed and the
definition of balanced and orthog onal is covered in a later module.
C enter Points are used for investig ating curvature and advanced
desig ns. C enter Points are covered in a later module.
Blocking can be used to account for noise variables and is covered in a
later module.
Im keeping
k eepingout
out
the
N oise
coach!!
Im
the
Noise
coach!!!
Remember our advice

that subject matter experts along with your team members should pay attention to their experience
and the previously gathered and analyzed data. If curvature is suspected, center points are used to
confirm if curvature exists within the experimental region.
Remembering that noise variables cant be controlled but managed around, blocking is a technique
for managing your experiment around noise variables considered of importance. Remember, you are
interested in understanding the effects and interactions of your controlled variables so you want
statistical confidence.
Randomization has an
impact on your
statistical confidence
because your
experimental Noise is
spread across the runs.
What would happen if
another unknown
significant variable
changed halfway during
our experiment?
It is possible that an
unknown significant
variable such as
machine warm up time
could get confused with
the C variable because
without randomization
all the low levels would
be generated first and
then all the high levels.
486
Determining sample size is very similar to what we did in the Analyze Phase. There are a few
distinctions. Much of the values are self-explanatory.
As in the Analyze Phase, we are typically solving for the number of replicates, but you can work the
numbers backwards as we did before and estimate how big an effect could be detected.
Select the number of replicates to achieve the accuracy that you require for your DOE. Ensure
Randomize Runs is unchecked. This will simplify the interpretation of the worksheet.
487
A rep is a replication which is an independent observation of the run that represents variation from
experimental run to experimental run.
A replication is NOT a duplicate or a repeat. Look at the two designs shown here. The first is a single
replicate design, which means there is only one value for each unique experimental run. The
terminology is a bit confusing, but dont worry.
The replicated design
has double the runs.
The design is fully
randomized whenever
possible but the
above are shown in
standard order to
make the worksheets
easier to interpret.
Notice how
experimental run #1
and #9 have the three
factors which are start
angle, stop angle and
fulcrum, running with
the same combination
of levels and then
experimental run #9 is
a replicate of run #1.
Replication Single Replicate

Design
Replicated Design (2)
488

Step 7 is to Execute the Experiment and Collect Data.
7 . Ex e cu te th e Ex p e r im e n t a n d C o lle ct D a ta
Discuss the experimenta l scope, time and cost with the process owners
prior to the experiment.
Some tea m members must be present during the entire experiment.
A fter the experiment has started, are you g etting output responses you
expected?
If not, quickly evaluate for N oise or other factors and consider
stopping or ca nceling the experiment.
Use a log book to make notes of observations, other factor setting s, etc.
C ommunicate with the opera tors, technicia ns, sta ff about the
experimental deta ils a nd why the experiment is being discussed b efore
running the experiment.
This communication ca n prevent helping by the operators,
technicia ns, etc. that mig ht da mag e your experimental desig n.
A lert the la boratory or qua lity technicians if your experiment will
increa se the number of samples arriving during the experiment.
489
Step 8 is to Analyze the data from the Designed Experiment and draw Statistical Conclusions.
8 . A n a ly z e th e D a ta fr o m th e D e s ig n e d Ex p e r im e n t
a n d d r a w S ta tis tica l C o n clu s io n s
G raphical A nalysis has already been covered in the previous
modules.
Further analysis of reducing the model to the sig nificant terms
will be covered in the next module.
Further analysis of reducing the model to the sig nificant terms
will be covered in the next module.
The final model fitting will occur.
Terms in the final DO E equation will have statistical confidence
you needed.
Diag nose the residuals similarly to that of Reg ression A nalysis.
Details of this step are covered in the next module.

Step 9 is to Draw Practical Solutions.
9 . D r a w P r a ctica l S o lu tio n s
This will be covered in detail in the next module.
Even if terms or factors are statistically sig nificant, for prac tical
sig nificance the term mig ht be removed.
S tat> DO E> Factorial> Response O ptimiz er will help the project team
find where the vital few factors need to be targ eted to achieve the
desired output response.
This will be covered in detail in the next module.
This step is how the project team determines the projects potential
success.
Immediately share the results with the process owner for feedbac k on
implementation of the experimental results.
490
Step 10 is to Replicate or Validate the Experimental Results.
1 0 . R e p lica te o r V a lid a te th e Ex p e r im e n ta l R e s u lts

A fter finding the Practical Results from Step 9 , verify the results:
Set the factors at the Practical Results found with Step 9 and see
if the process output responds as expected. This verification
replicates the result of the experiment.
Do not forg et your model has some error.

And the final step is to Implement Solutions. We spend so much time with the 11 step
methodology for a couple of reasons. One, it is easy to get confused or excited about running a
Designed Experiment. Two, experiments are easy to design with the help of SigmaXL but
difficult to execute appropriately and achieve statistical results unless you follow a planning
approach as we have discussed here. Overall there is a lot that can be overlooked or not done
properly, take your time and follow this process, it WILL ensure better results.
1 1 . Im p le m e n t S o lu tio n s
If the objective of the experiment was accomplished and the Business
C ase is satisfied, then proceed to the C ontrol Plan which is covered
in the C ontrol Phase.
Do not just run experiments and not implement the solutions.
Further experiments may need to be desig ned to further chang e the
output to satisfy the Business C ase.
This possible need for another experiment is why we stated in
earlier modules that DO Es can be an iterative process.
You will probably not fully appreciate all the comments in the modules of this phase until you have
designed, managed, executed and analyzed a few real life experiments for yourself.
491
Be able to Design, Conduct and Analyze an
Experiment
You have now completed Improve Phase Experimental Methods.
Notes
492
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Full Factorial Experiments
Now we will continue in the Improve Phase with Full Factorials.
493

In this module
we will discuss
the Full
Factorial in
detail.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to Im
Im ppro
rovvee
PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
ionn
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd PPro
roce
cessss M
Mooddeelin
lingg : :
M
MLR
LR
D
Deessig
ig nnin
ingg Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennta
ta l l M
Meeth
thooddss
Fu
Full
ll Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Fra
Fra ctio
ctionnaa l l Fa
Fa cto
ctorria
ia l l
Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
Mathematical Models
Mathematical Models
Balance and O
Balance and O rthog
rthogona
onality
lity
Fit and Diag
Fit and Diagnose Model
nose Model
CC enter Points
enter Points
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Why Use Full Factorial Designs

Two level Full Factorial designs are the most powerful and efficient set of experiments.
They are used to: Investigate multiple factors at only two levels, requiring fewer runs than
multi-level designs. To investigate large number of factors simultaneously in relatively few
runs. To provide insight into potential interactions. Are frequently used in industrial DOE
applications because of simplicity and ease of analysis. To obtain a mathematical
relationship between Xs and Ys. And to determine a numerical, mathematical relationship
to identify the most important or critical factors in the experiments.
Ok, let s do some

experimenting!!
Full Factorial designs are used when:
There are five or fewer factors.
You know the critical factors and need to explain interactions.
Optimizing processes.
494

Mathematical Output of Experiments
T he end res ult of a D O E is a mathematical function to des cribe the

res ults of the experiment.
F or the 2k F actorial des igns this module dis cus s es , linear
relations hips are covered.
All models will have s ome error as s hown by the in the below
equation.
T he mathematical equation below is the prediction from the

experimental data. Notice there is no error term in this form.
is the predicted output res pons e as a function of the input
Y
variables us ed in the experiment.
This may look similar to regression, but the important difference is that DOE is considered true
cause and effect because of the controlled nature of experimentation. This is an important tool in
manufacturing environments.
The only difference between the model equation and the prediction equation shown is that the
prediction equation is simplified for describing the data gathered in the experiment and using it to
predict future events. Just because you end up with a prediction equation in an experiment does
not mean it is a good predictive model. We will discuss this further when we introduce center
points.
495

Linear Mathematical Model
T he linear model is s ufficient for mos t indus trial experimental objectives .

T he linear model can explain res pons e planes and twis ted res pons e s urfaces
becaus e of interactions .
T he following is a linear prediction model us ed in a two-level full or
fractional factorials .
Surface Plot of % Reacted
Surface Plot of % Reacted
65
65
55
60
% Reacted
% Reacted
1
55
0
-1
Ct
-1
1
Cn
1
45
0
-1
Cn
-1
1
Linear Models are usually sufficient for most industrial experimental objectives. This goes back to
the difference between a physical model and a DOE model. Just because we know by theory that
the model should not be linear, it may express itself as sufficiently Linear in the particular design
space.
People can get confused between the concept of curvature and twisted response planes. We do
not have enough information (not enough levels for each variable) to describe true curvature.
Take a piece of paper which will represent 2 input variables. Lift opposite corners. That is a
graphical representation of an interaction. The response plane (paper) is twisted. Now lift up the
paper to eye level and rotate until the projection looks like a curved line. We are simply looking at
the projection of the twisted plane with Linear Models. There may be true curvature in the real
world, we simply cant describe it with a Linear Model.
HOWEVER, in most manufacturing processes the Linear Model is very powerful because of the
constrained design space. Draw a box on the paper and hold it up by two opposite corners.
Depending on how much twist you give the paper and how big the box is you will either see a
curve or not in the defined space.
The surface plot on the left has no significant interaction, but both Main Effects are significant.
The surface plot on the right shows a significant interaction with T and Cn.
496

Quadratic Mathematical Model
True curvature can be described using the Quadratic Model. The squared term in the model gives
us the ability to describe true curvature. With the ability of describing curvature comes a cost. The
experiment gets much bigger. Central composite designs are an example of a Quadratic Model.
Here is a surface plot of true curvature in a Quadratic Model. This shape is referred to as a saddle
for obvious reasons.
Q uadratic Models can be obtained with des igns not des cribed in this module.
Q uadratic Models explain curvature, maximums , minimums and twis ted
maximums and minimums when interactions are active.
T he following is the quadratic prediction model us ed in s ome res pons e
s urface models not covered in this training.
T he s impler 2 k models do not include enough information to generate
the Q uadratic Model.
Surface Plot of C6
21
16
C6
11
6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
Nomenclature for Factorial Experiment

The nomenclature for 2 level designs is 2 to the K. If you had an experiment with 3 factors it would
be a 2 cubed design. If you simply do the math, that is the number of experimental runs in the basic
design.
497

Treatment Combinations
Treatment combinations, or experimental runs, show how to set the levels for each of the factors.
Minuses and plusses can be used to indicate low and high factor level settings, Center Points are
indicated with zeros. If the process is evaluated with combinations of the temperature set at 10 and
20 degrees and pressure at 50 and 100 psi, an example of an experimental run or treatment
combination would be 20 degrees and 50 psi.
A 22 design has 2 factors at 2 levels.
No, those are 2 X 4 s!!
Meaning - 4 treatment combinations to consider and

analyze.
Temperature
Pressure
10
20
50
100
Treatment combination
for run number 2 is:
Temperature at 20 deg
and Pressure at 50 psi.
Standard Order of 2 Level Designs

Dr. Frank Yates created this standard order to aid in calculating the effects of each effect by
hand. Thank goodness we no longer have to perform hand calculations. It is common to draw a
cube for a 2 cubed design as shown.
The Design Matrix for 2k factorials are shown in standard order

(not randomized).
The low level is indicated by a - and the high level by a + .
498

Full Factorial Design with 4 Factors
Here we have
standard notation for
2 to the 4 design and
above using 2 cubes,
a common
representation; now
for the low levels of
the 4 the factor and
one for the high.
Full Factorial Design

Lets walk through and
design a 2 cubed
design again for
practice. You can
name the columns A, B
and C or any name
youd like.
This table created with
the factors is referred
to as a table of
contrasts. The
contrast columns are
the minus ones and
plus ones in the factor
columns. In order to
calculate contrast columns for interactions, we need the contrast columns for the main factors.
Warning, whatever you do, do not change the names of the columns by simply typing over the
names. SigmaXL creates a model that it uses for the analysis later. If it cant find the column
names used to generate the worksheet, it will give an error message.
499

Balanced Design
Factorial designs should be
balanced for proper
interpretation of the
mathematical equation.
An experiment is balanced
when each factor has the
same number of
experimental runs at both
high and low levels.
Summing the signs of the
column contrast should yield
a zero. In this example,
there are 2 minuses and 2
plusses.
Balance simplifies the math
necessary to analyze the
experiment.
Factorial Desig ns should be balanced for proper interpretation of the

mathematical equation.
A n experiment is balanced when each factor has the same number of
experimental runs at both hig h and low levels.
Summing the sig ns of the column contrast should yield a z ero.
Balance simplifies the math necessary to analyz e the experiment.
If you always use the desig ns MIN ITA B TM provides, they will always be
balanced.
1
2
3
4
Xi
A
+
+
0
B
+
+
0
SigmaXL creates balanced, orthogonal designs. If they arent changed, this isnt a problem.
Orthogonal Design
An orthogonal design
allows each effect in
an experiment to be
measured
independently, these
are vectors which are
at 90 degrees to each
other. When every
interaction for all
possible variable pair
sums to zero, the
design is orthogonal.
500

Biomedical Production Example
In this example we will walk throug h the 1 1 Step DO E methodolog y.

The biomedical firm is attempting to increase the yield of a specific
protein expression for use in research by universities and
pharmaceutical companies.
1 . D e fin e th e P r a ctica l P r o b le m
Increase the yield by 5 0 % of current production. The Measurement System
A na lysis for yield ha s been verified. The baseline for the primary metric of
yield is at 5 0 %. The objective of the Project C ha rter required the team to
achieve at least a 5 0 % increase in yield.
2 . Es ta b lis h th e Ex p e r im e n ta l O b je ctiv e
Maximiz e the yield.
3 . S e le ct th e O u tp u t (re s p o n s e ) V a ria b le s
Y ield of protein expression is the only output of interest.
It is desirable to chang e the yield from 5 0 % to at least 7 5 %.
4.
S e le ct th e In p u t (in d e p e n d e n t) V a ria b le s
Temperature
C oncentration
C atalyst
N oise and other variables such as ambient room temperature and technician
will be recorded during the experiment.
5 . C h o o s e th e Le v e ls fo r th e In p u t V a ria b le s
The following levels were determined with tools from the A nalyz e Phase such
as Reg ression, Box Plots, Hypothesis Testing and Scatter Plots. The levels
were set far enoug h to attempt larg e yield chang es to g et statistical
confidence in our results.
Temperature C (2 5 , 4 5 )
C oncentration % (5 , 1 5 )
C atalyst (Supplier A , Supplier B)
501

Biomedical Production Example (cont.)
When creating the worksheet
in SigmaXL be sure to
change the default in the
Number of Replicates
window to 2.
Enter the names of the factors

and their levels here in
SigmaXL. This is where these
are created so remember to do
it here, it will not carry through
if you only do it in the
worksheet itself.
SigmaXL V6 does not support
discrete factors in DOE so the
high and low levels must be
coded. We recommend 0,1 as
shown.
Type Yield in the Response
Name as shown. If we had
more than one response we
would change the Number of
Responses and label the
Response Names.
You will almost always use the
randomization selection when
creating designs for real
experiments. There are some
exceptions that we will cover
later in this module.
Again, we will use Standard
Order to make the worksheet
easier to interpret.
502

In the shaded Yield
field is where we will
place the experimental
results.
Select the 3 Factor DOE

worksheet which contains the
data shown above.
Note that supplier is coded as
0,1. There is no in between
value for the 2 different
suppliers.
In an actual experiment you
would type in the yield
response information in the
created worksheet. Over the
next several slides we will walk
through the analysis.
Here we go
We first need to estimate
the effects for ALL possible
effects in the design,
including all main effects
and all interaction effects.
Then we will decide which
ones are important to
describing the variation in
the data set.
We will remove the effects
that are not important to
describing the variation in
the data set and re-run the
model with only those
effects. This is similar to
the work you have already done in Regression Analysis. After we have run the final model fit we will
check our Residual Analysis to validate our assumptions, the same as in Regression.
503

The Pareto Chart shows us the
significant effects based on the
selected alpha level.
At this point, Temperature and
the interaction of Temperature
with supplier are the significant
effects.
Look for the Factorial

Fit information. We
interpret this based on
the same way as we
have interpreted as
we do any other
statistical test.
What does this tell
us.there are 2
significant effects that
should be in this
model.
Since we have removed

the insignificant factors
we need to go back and
refit the model. Even
though there were only
two significant effects
we must include all
Main Effects in the
model that are involved
in an interaction.
504

Biomedical Production Example (cont>)
We need to create
some Factorial Plots
before evaluating the
Residuals. Follow
the SigmaXL path
shown here.
The steep slope on a Main Effects Plot means that variable is significant. Flat lines as shown for
concentration and supplier indicate they are not significant.
The interaction plot shows you all the plots with the variables you selected in the previous
SigmaXL command. The interaction of interest for our example is temperature with supplier. Here
it looks like high temperature with supplier 1 gives the highest yield which in our case is exactly what
we want.
505

Biomedical Production Example (cont>)
Review the fitted Analysis of Variance table. This provides a lot of information that we will explore
later in the module, for now notice the P-value.
This shows us our Residual plots for yield. The interpretation is the same as weve used in the past
for Regression.
506

The Residuals versus Variables are most important when deciding what level to set an insignificant
factor.
A typical guideline is a difference of a factor of 3 in the spread of the Residuals between the low and
high levels of an insignificant input variable.
In this case concentration was not significant, but we still need to make a decision on how to set it
for the process. The low level for concentration has a smaller spread of Residuals, but there is not
a difference of 3:1. Other considerations for setting the Variable are cost and reducing cycle time.
Step 9 is to draw your

Practical Solutions.
The Solver Add-in is
included in the
Microsoft Excel
Package. To access
it,
Click Tools > Add-Ins
(Excel 2007: Office
Button | Excel Options
| Add-Ins > Manage
Excel Add-Ins, click
Go). Ensure that
the Solver Add-in is
checked. If the Solver
Add-in does not
appear in the Add-ins
available list, you will
need to re-install
Excel to include all
add-ins.
507

Using Excels Solver we will find the optimal predicted response. We will select to be changing
cells K26 and K27, the yellow fields. Our optimization will be subject to the following constraints:
K27 = Binary
L26 <= 1
L26 >= -1
- This limits the options for Supplier to 1 or 0.

- This limits the Temp to ensure our maximum of 45, or the coded value 1
- This limits the Temp to ensure our minimum of 25, or the coded value -1
By clicking solve, we are given the optimal result.

Please note, we will set Concentration to 5%. Since Concentration is insignificant, we will reduce it
to the minimum value to save on cost and potentially to minimize variation.
508

Now that we have completed one example we are going to add to your knowledge base by
covering Center Points and run through another example adding further explanation of the
statistics as well.
Center Points
As you can see in the graphic there may be an unknown hump in the Response Curve, by adding
the Center Point it allows us to calculate an additional statistic. If there is significant curvature in the
model all we know is that the model is not Linear.
We dont know what it is, just what it is not.
509

Center Point Clues
Pseudo Center Points are
used when there are
discrete input variables in
the model.
The model can be
collapsed creating real
Center Points if the
discrete input variables
are not significant.
If the desire was to
maximize the response
(as shown in graphic) then
the model doesnt matter.
The model is an important
tool to predict output
response inside the
design space. If the
experimenter decides to
set up another experiment
to continue in the direction
indicated, then predicting
is not an issue.
A C enter Point is always a g ood insurance policy, but is most effective

when all the input factors are C ontinuous.
A g uideline is to run 2 -4 C enter Point runs distributed uniformly throug h
the experiment when all the input factors are continuous in a Full or
Fractional Factorial.
Y
M a x im iz e R e s p o n s e
D o e s it m a tte r th a t
th e lin e a r m o d e l is
in a p p ro p ria te ?
Panel Cleaning Example
In this example we will walk throug h the 1 1 step DO E methodolog y for

a panel cleaning machine using C enter Points in the analysis. The
manufacturing firm is attempting to start up a new panel cleaning
machine and would like to g etting it running quickly. They have
experience with this type of machine, but they do not have experience
with this particular model of equipment.
1 . D e fin e th e P r a ctica l P ro b le m
Start the new equipment as efficiently as possible. The need for the new
equipment was determined in the A na lyz e Phase.
A Measurement System A na lysis has been completed and modified to bring
within a cceptable g uidelines.
2 . Es ta b lis h th e Ex p e r im e n ta l O b je ctiv e
Hit a targ et for W idth of 4 0 + / - 5 .
Minimiz e variation as much as possible.
510

Panel Cleaning Example (cont.)
Na2S2O8 is Sodium
Persulfate; please
3 . S e le ct th e O u tp u t (r e s p o n s e ) V a r ia b le s
use that any time
W idth of conductor is the only response.
you see that
notation.
4 . S e le ct th e In p u t (in d e p e n d e n t) V a r ia b le s
Dwell Time
Temperature
N a 2S2O 8
The experts believe that ambient temperature and humidity will have
no effect on the process. Monitors will be placed in the room to
record temperature and humidity.
5 . C h o o s e th e Le v e ls fo r th e In p u t V a r ia b le s
Dwell Time ( 4 , 6 ) minutes
Temperature (4 0 , 8 0 ) C
N a 2 S 2 O 8 (1 .8 , 2 .4 ) g m/ lit
Use the Panel Cleaning DOE worksheet

You actually know the answer already since the sample size is the same as the previous example
and they were both 2 cubed designs. Look at your worksheet and find the Center Point runs. Why
are the Center Points uniformly distributed?
Center Points not only tell us something about how well the linear model works, but is also a
reality check for our data. By eyeballing the Center Point data as our experiment progressed we
can see if anything has effected our experiment that we were not expecting. If your Center Points
are dramatically different from each other, youve got a problem -- somewhere. They should be
fairly close in magnitude, at least within normal variation.
511

Creating Designs with Center Points
You most likely already know how to create a design with Center Points added. Simply go through
the usual steps to create a design and include Center Points.
Your design should look different than the one in the illustration because we more likely than not have
a different random seed that generated the designs. It is possible that our designs are the same, but
trying to calculate the odds of that occurring is not worth the bother. You should have 19 rows in your
design, so if you do not, go back and fix it.
512

Creating Designs with Center Points
Do the same for the
Center Point you want in
the middle and end of the
design. We have color
coded our example for
ease of understanding.
The rows you move most
likely will be different.
Use Excels Sort to sort
the worksheet by Run
Order (Data>Sort).
You should now have a
worksheet that has a
Center Point at or near
the beginning, middle
and end. If your original
design had the Center
Points roughly in those
positions, great that
saved a little work.

Lets continue with the Panel Cleaning Example. Use the Panel Cleaning DOE worksheet.
513

Analyze the experiment
in SigmaXL. For fun
since youve already
done this once in this
module, stop reading
and work on your own
for a while. When you
think you know what
should be removed from
the model, go ahead
and do it.
So how did it go?

Looks like the
significant effects are
Sodium Persulfate,
temperature, the
interaction of temp
with Sodium
Persulfate and dwell
time in that order of
importance.
The P-values from the analysis in the session agree as well.
514

Re-fit the model by
removing the insignificant
factors if you have not
already done this. Be
sure to generate the
necessary Standardized
Residual Plots.
Here we are going to define the calculations in the ANOVA table.

When working with 2 level designs you will always have 1 degree of freedom for each effect
(including interactions) which is calculated as 2 levels minus 1 equals 1 degree of freedom. In the
ANOVA table for Main Effects we have 3 degrees of freedom for the 3 Main Effects placed in the
model. There is one degree of freedom for the temperature Sodium Persulfate interaction.
The Residual error is broken into 2 sources. The 3 degrees of freedom for lack of fit are from the 3
interaction effects that were removed from the model because they were not significant in explaining
the variation of the data. The 10 degrees of freedom come from replication. The 8 runs from the
original design generated 8 degrees of freedom, in this case there were 2 replicates minus 1 equals
1 degree of freedom for each run in the design. Add to that 2 degrees of freedom from the Center
Points (3 Center Points minus 1 equals 2 degrees of freedom) and we have a total of 10 degrees of
freedom for pure error. Pure error can be defined as the failure of things treated alike to act alike
which are the replicates.
515

Continuing here with some definitions.

The SS or Sum of Squares calculations are simply an unscaled or unadjusted measure of
dispersion or spread of the data. Seq or Sequential Sum of Squares and Adj or Adjusted Sum of
Squares are the same for DOE analyses. (There may be differences in Regression Analysis).
Adj MS or Adjusted Mean Square takes the Sum of the Squares number and scales it using the
number of degrees of freedom for that calculation. Mean Squares are the equivalent of variance.
Here we use the F statistic. An F statistic is simply variance divided by variance. In the case of DOE
it is the Variance of an effect divided by the variance due to residual error. In this platform,
SigmaXL sums the sum of the squares for certain elements of the model to report in the ANOVA
table instead of keeping them separate. The F statistic with respect to the Main Effects is calculated
by taking 199.779 and dividing by 1.348 which equals 148.18. The associated P-value is 0.000
which is less than 0.05 so our conclusion is that the model is significant.
Notice in this example the curvature is not significant which means our assumption of linearity is
good. Also the P-value for lack of fit is not significant. That means the effects we removed from the
model really do not belong in the model. If there was significant lack of fit, that would indicate that
some of the effects that were removed from the model actually belong in the model.
The last to discuss here is the prediction equation. Please note here the coefficients for the
Prediction Equation are based on uncoded units. In other words, you can use this equation directly
in real units.
516

Prediction Equation
Take a few
minutes to study
the equations.
They really are
simply plug and
chug.
Please note, we
have taken
liberties with
rounding numbers!
You wont actually
have to do this by
hand because that
is exactly what the
response optimizer
does in SigmaXL.

The most interesting thing to look at here is the interaction plot. The temperature with Sodium
Persulfate interaction shows there is very little difference in the predicted response as long as
Sodium Persulfate is held at the high level. But if the concentration of Sodium Persulfate is
lowered, temperature and in particular 40 degrees lowers the width more rapidly than if
temperature was set at 80 degrees.
517

There are no assumption violations within the plots shown here.
As depicted here the Residuals Versus Factor Plots do NOT show any differences in the
variation of the data from the low to the high values.
518

Here we will use Excels
Solver (Data>Solver) to
draw some Practical
Conclusions. Play with
Solver and see what you
can do remembering that
the original objective was
to hit a target of 40 +/- 5
for the width.
Are there other solutions? Explore your options by modifying the constraints in Solver or through
experimentation with
the Predicted
Response
Calculator. Solver
does an excellent job
of optimizing
according to the
data. What it does
not know are all the
quirks of your
equipment, cost of
raw materials,
increasing
throughput, etc.
Is it possible to
achieve the target
value of 40 with
Sodium Persulfate
set at the minimum
value (to minimize
cost)?
It looks like we can get close, but we cant hit the target. We know our lower specification limit is 35
and it looks like we can get to 38 with the Sodium Persulfate at the low level, temp and dwell time
high. Is the good enough? Maybe, maybe not. If you knew the spread of the data or variation and it
was small you could capitalize on that capability by using 38 as the target instead of 40 and still
guarantee your customer they would never see any product with widths smaller than 35.
Imagine if you were working with gold or platinum. What effect could that have on the bottom line?
519

520

Now we will look at SigmaXLs Contour/Surface Plots to visualize the solution set of input variable
level settings in order to achieve the desired result.
As shown here we generate 3 different graphs as a result of changing the set point for dwell time.
The areas highlighted in red (produced manually to aide interpretation) are the solution set for
adjusting temperature and Sodium Persulfate to get a predicted response between 35 and 45. This
is an alternative to the Response Optimizer.
Its a
wrap.
Fun stuff,
right?!
521

Understand how to create Balanced and Orthogonal
Designs
Explain how Fit, Diagnose and Center Points factor into
an Experiment
You have now completed Improve Phase Full Factorial Experiments.
Notes
522
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Fractional Factorial Experiments
Now we will continue with the Improve Phase Fractional Factorial Designing Experiments.
523

Within this module we
will explore how to
conduct a Fractional
Factorial Experiment.
Welc
Welcome to Improve
ome to Improve
PProc
roces
esss M
Modeling
odeling: : RReg
egres
resssion
ion
Advanc
Advanced
ed PProc
roces
esss M
Modeling
odeling: :
ML
ML RR
Des
Desig
igning
ning EE xperiments
xperiments
EE xperimental
xperimental M
Methods
ethods
FFull
ull FFac
actorial
xperiments
Des
Designs
igns
CC reation
reation
FFrac
ractional
tional FFac
actorial
xperiments
Wrap
Wrap UUp
p &
& Ac
Action
tion IItems
tems
GGenerators
enerators
CC onfounding
onfounding &
& RR es
esolution
olution
Why Use Fractional Factorial Designs?
Fractional
Factorial
Designs are a
powerful sub-set
of Factorial
Designs. As the
name implies,
you may expect
they are some
fraction of the
original Factorial
Designs and
youd be
correct. The
question is what
fraction?
Weve shown two 4 factor designs side by side so you can contrast the two designs. Notice the
Fractional Factorial Design requires only a fraction of the experimental runs to evaluate 4 input
factors. In this case, it is a half fraction. As with most things in life there is a price to be paid for
reducing the number of runs required which we will go through in detail in this module.
524

Why Use Fractional Factorial Designs (cont.)
Fractional Factorial designs are also used to study Main Effects and 2-way interactions if the
experimenter and team has good process knowledge and can assume higher order interactions are
negligible. There is the cost in a nutshell. In exchange for reducing the overall experiments size you
will give up the ability to evaluate higher order interactions. It turns out this is a pretty good
assumption in many cases. Well talk about this more later.
F ractional F actorial D es igns are als o us ed to:
S tudy Main E ffects and 2-way interactions if the experimenter and team has
good proces s knowledge and can as s ume higher order interactions are
negligible.
R educe time and cos t of experiments becaus e the number of runs h ave
been lowered.
As the number of factors increas es , the number of runs required to run a full 2 k
factorial experiment als o increas es (even without repeats or replicates )
3 factors : 2x2x2 = 8 runs
4 factors : 2x2x2x2 = 16 runs
5 factors : 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 runs etc .
B e an initial experiment that can be augmented with another frac tion to

reduce confounding and es timate factors of interes t.
T he answer i s i n there
The answer is in
somewhere!!
there somewhere!!!
Fractional Factorial designs are also used to reduce the time and cost of experiments because the
number of runs have been lowered. As the number of factors increases, the number of runs required to
run a full 2k factorial experiment also increases (even without repeats or replicates) as you already
know.
3 factors: requires 8 runs
4 factors: requires 16 runs
5 factors: requires 32 runs etc.
The number of runs required for a Fractional Factorial will depend on how many factors are included in
the design and how much fractioning can be tolerated based on the facts of the process.
Fractionals are also used as an initial experiment that can be augmented with another fraction to
reduce confounding and estimate factors of interest. Well define this as we advance through the
module.
525

Nomenclature for Fractional Factorials
The general notation for a
Fractional Factorial is
similar to that of a Full
Factorial. Take a few
moments and read through
the definitions for the
notation.
Lets look at the 2 to the 5
minus 1 example here:
How many factors are in
the experiment? That is the
first number in the exponent
or in this case, 5.
At this point we are not
ready to discuss the
resolution since we have
not covered it yet.
Th e g e n e ra l n o ta tio n fo r
Fra ctio n a l Fa cto ria ls is :
2R
k = number of fa ctors to be investig a ted

p = number of fa ctors a ssig ned to a n intera ction column (a lso ca lled
deg ree of fra ctiona ting with 1 = 1 / 2 , 2 = 1 / 4 ,3 = 1 / 8 , etc.)
R = desig n resolution (III, IV, V, etc.). It deta ils a mount of
confounding to compa re desig n a lterna tives
2 k-p = the number of experimenta l runs
The example clarifies how to use the nomenclature.
k -p
How ma ny fa ctors in the experiment?

How ma ny runs if no repea ts or replica tes?
W ha t fra ctiona l desig n is this (1 / 8 , 1 / 4 or 1 / 2 )?
5-1
2V
How many runs if no repeats or replicates? Simply do the math. 2 to the 5 minus 1 is the same as
2 to the fourth which is 8 runs.
What Fractional Design is this? Since this design uses only half the number of runs as a Full
Factorial with 5 factors it is a half fraction.
Half-Fractional Experiment Creation
526

Half-Fractional Experiment Creation
Having 4 runs can not project 4 factor therefore, this would have 3 degrees of freedom, so the
answer is a big fat NO.
Why is the des ig n, s hown as orang e rows , c alled a half frac tion? T his is the des ig n
jus t c reated on the previous s lide. T his is a half frac tion s in c e a full 2x 2x 2x 2 fac torial
would take 16 runs . With the half frac tion we c an es timate the effec ts of 4 fac tors in 8
runs . What is the c os t? We los e the ability to s tudy the hig he r order interac tion
independently!
Half Fraction:
Alias Structure:
D = ABC
Note D settings
are the same as
the ABC
interaction
A
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
B
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
C
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
D
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
AxB
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
AxC
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
BxC
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
AxBxC
-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
C ould we c reate a quarter frac tion ex periment out of the above

matrix and s till s tudy four fac tors at onc e?
Why or why not?
Graphical Representation of Half-Fraction

Why would we call this a half fraction? Because half the number of runs is necessary as apposed
to that of a Full Factorial.
We have dis cus s ed half-fractional E xperimental D es igns for 4 factors :
T he graphical repres entation s hows the 8 runs we created on the previous 2
s lides .
T op line of previous s lide
- A +
- A +
- C
+
+ C
+
-
R emember that D is confounded with the A B C interaction in this h alf-fractional

des ig n.
527

Design Generators
Dont worry SigmaXL will take care of this! THANK YOU SigmaXL!!!!
D es ign G enerators a re a n e as ier technique to us e than to g enerate the

F ractional F actorial D es igns by hand a s done in the previous s lides .
D es ign G enerators help us E AS IL Y find the c onfounding within the
F ractional D es ign.
A D es ign G enerator is the m athematical definition for how to beg in
alias ing a F ull F actorial to c reate a F ractional F actorial.
E xample of a D es ign G enerator:
Des ig n G enerator D = A B C
T his m eans the D c olumn is the s ame a s the A B C
interac tion c olumn; they c annot b e d is ting uis hed from
eac h o ther s o a re c alled c onfounded.
This graph helps us visually draw the conclusion of the data that we already have. We have
highlighted in green two boxes and this can very simply be filled in by the data expressed by the
generator; A times B times C equals D.
Des ig n G enerator D = A B C
B ecaus e of the D es ign G enerator we c an now fill out the D c olumn
F or e ach row of D , multiply the v alues in the c olumns of A , B a nd
C together a nd c reate the c olumn
Y ou may c orrectly s us pect s ome 2 -factor interactions a re
confounded
C reate c ontras t c olumns for A D, B D, C D us ing a s imilar technique
us ed to c reate the c olumn for D
A
B
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
1
C
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
AB
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
AC
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
1
BC
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
AD
BD
CD
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
528

Design Generators (cont.)
SigmaXL Aliasing
This SigmaXL
output gives the
summary of what
you did on the
previous slides much
quicker than we can
do by hand. The
reason we have you
did things manually
earlier is to being to
appreciate and
understand the
SigmaXL output
generated below the
data table after you
create a Fractional
Factorial design with
4 factors, half
fraction with no
Center Points or replicates and the number of blocks equal to 1. You should get the same output.
Try it.
Notice after the design structure an alias structure is indicated. We can see the AB 2-way interaction
is Confounded with the CD 2-way interaction meaning we cannot distinguish if the interaction is
statistically significant whether it is a result of the AB or CD interaction or a combination.
529

So What is Confounding?
C onfounding is the consequence a n experimenter a ccepts for not running a
Full Fa ctoria l Desig n.
W hen using the C onfounding or A lia s pa ttern we a ssume tha t the
hig her order intera ctions in a C onfounded effect a re not sig nifica nt.
S pa rsity of effects principle indica tes tha t hig her order intera ctions
a re very ra re.
W h ile in te ra ctio n s a re im p o rta n t th e y d o n o t a b o u n d ,
in te ra ctio n s th a t a re m o re co m p le x th a n th o s e in v o lv in g
tw o fa cto rs a r e ra re Th o m a s B . B a rk e r
In the past example, the D fa ctor wa s C onfounded with the A BC 3 -w a y

intera ction. W hen the effect is a ssig ned to D which is C onfounded with
A BC , we assume beca use of the spa rsity of effects principle the effect is
entirely beca use of the D fa ctor.
Remember when two items such a s a n intera ction with a Ma in Effect a re
C onfounded, one ca nnot disting uish if the sta tistica l sig nifica nce is a result
of the Ma in Effect or the intera ction or a combina tion.
A lia s in g is a n o th e r te rm fo r C o n fo u n d in g .
Confounded Effects With Fractionals
Using more enhance visuals, here is another Fractional Design structure, notice how the Alias
structure A is Confounded with the two way interaction. The light green box indicates this to be true
the most obvious.
530

Experimental Resolution
Remember R in the nomenclature referenced the Resolution.
This useful visual aid remembers definitions of the
C onfounding desig nated by the Resolution.
Main Effects
Two Way Interactions
k-p
2R
Fully Saturated Design

Resolution III
Hold up Three Fingers, One on one
hand and Two on the other. This
illustrates the Confounding of main
effects with two way interactions.
Resolution IV
Next hold up four fingers
The Confounding is main effects with
three way interactions or
Main Effects
Three Way Interactions
Two way interactions Confounded with

other two way interactions.
Two Way Interactions Two Way Interactions
The visual aid is shown throug h Resolution V.
Main Effects
Four Way Interactions
k -p
2R
Resolution V
Hold up Five Fingers, One on one hand and
Four on the other. This illustrates the
Confounding of main effects with four way
interactions or
Two way interactions Confounded with

three way interactions.
Two Way Interactions
Three Way Interactions
531

SigmaXL Fractional Factorial Design Creation
We have already seen
this SigmaXL after a
Fractional Factorial
Design was created.
SigmaXL
automatically tells us
the Resolution and if
we use the hands
technique to
remember the Aliasing
type of structure, we
can save time. The
Resolution can get
very complicated with
those screening
Fractional Factorial
Designs with factors
more than 5 so this
helps is desirable.
2V (5 -1) Fractional Design Resolution V
Example of a very useful Fractiona l Desig n often used for screening desig ns.
B
C
A
P ro s
5 factors (Ma in Effects)
1 0 2 -w a y intera ctions
Main Effects only C onfounded
with ra re 4 -w a y intera ctions
Cons
1 6 trials to g et 5 Ma in Effects
2 nd order interactions a re
C onfounded with 3 rd order
Run
-1
-1
-1
-1
E
1
2
3
4
1
-1
1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
5
6
-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
7
8
-1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
10
11
12
13
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
1
14
15
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
16
532

SigmaXLs Display of Available Designs
SigmaXL does not include a visual display of Factorial Designs.
DOE Methodology
We have included a copy of the methodology here for you to use when following our practical
example for Fractional Factorials.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Define the Practical Problem

Establish the Experimental Objective
Select the Output (response) Variables
Select the Input (independent) Variables
Choose the Levels for the input variables
Select the Experimental Design
Execute the Experiment and collect data
Analyze the Data from the designed experiment and
draw Statistical Conclusions
9. Draw Practical Solutions
10. Replicate or Validate the Experimental Results
11. Implement Solutions
Just
followsimple
these simple
steps
..
Just follow
these
steps..!
533

Fractional Factorial Example
This is a two to the eighth minus four power design with a resolution four design. This design has
16 runs as you see in the slide with all eight factors at two levels.
534

Fractional Factorial Example (cont.)
Take a look at what Confounding exists before you jump into analysis. SigmaXL does not report
Confounding with 3-way interactions.
535

We chose to set alpha to 0.1 initially but this is not required. We find the factors with important Main
Effects are E, H and B. The 2-way interactions AC, AF and AE seem important at an alpha level of
0.1.
536

537

Statistical Conclusions to maintain terms in the model must consider:

cons
Maintaining hierarchical order
A2 way
A 2 interaction
-way interaction
must have
mustthe
have
involved
the involved
factorsfactors
in the model
in the model
also also
High statistical confidence with the P
A higher R
Proper residuals and few to no unusual observations
ider:
-value
-valueless
lessthan
thanyour
youralpha
alpharisk
risk
-sq or model explanation of the process changes is desired
unusual
No, No,
nonounusual
observations here
observations here!
538

539

Practical Conclusions to keep in the model include:

!
!
!
!
Simple models can be useful depending on the project or process

requirements
Terms with practically large enough significance even if statistically
significant
Impact of R-sq by removing a term with low effects
Ability to set and control the controllable inputs in the model may
decide on the use of terms
! Robust designs or minimal variation requirements may require
close inspection of interactions effects on the Y
If multiple outputs are involved in the process requirements,
balancing of requirements will be necessary
That s a lot of juggling.!
10. Replicate or Validate the Experimental Results

! After we have determined with 95% statistical confidence, we must
replicate the results to confirm our assumptions; such as which 2-way
interactions were significant among the Confounded ones
! If the results do not match the expected results OR the project goal,
further experimentation may be needed
! In this case, we were able to achieve 29.8 on average with the
process setting of B, E and H and so the results are considered
successful in the project
We win, we win!!!
540

1 1 . Im p le m e n t S o lu tio n s
W ork with the Process O wners and develop the C ontrol Plans
to sustain your success
Fractional Factorial Exercise
541

Explain why & how to use a Fractional Factorial Design
Create a proper Fractional Factorial Design
Analyze a proper model with aliased interactions
Not that kind of model!!!

You have now completed Improve Phase Fractional Factorial Experiments.
Notes
542
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Improve Phase
Congratulations on completing the training portion of the Improve Phase. Now comes the
exciting and challenging partimplementing what you have learned to real world projects.
543

Improve Phase OverviewThe Goal
This is a summary of
the purpose for the
Improve Phase.
Avoid getting into
analysis paralysis,
only use DOEs as
necessary. Most
problems will NOT
require the use of
Designed
Experiments
however to qualify as
a Black Belt you at
least need to have
an understanding of
DOE as described in
this course.
Th e g o a l o f th e Im p ro v e P h a s e is to :
Determine the optimal levels of the variables which are sig nificantly
impacting your Primary Metric.
Demonstrate a working knowledg e of modeling as a means of
process optimiz ation.
Improve Phase Action Items
Listed below are the Improve Phase deliverables that each candid ate
will present in a Power Point presentation at the beg inning of the
C ontrol Phase training .
A t this point you should all understand what is necessary to provide
these deliverables in your presentation.
Tea m Members (Tea m Meeting A ttenda nce)

Prima ry Metric
S econda ry Metric(s)
Experiment Justifica tion
Experiment Pla n / O bjective
Experiment Results
Project Pla n
Issues a nd Ba rriers
Its
Its your
y our show!!
s how!
Before beginning the Control Phase you should prepare a clear presentation that addresses each
topic shown here.
544

Six Sigma Behaviors
Being tenacious, courag eous

Being rig orous, disciplined
Making data -b ased decisions
Embracing chang e & continuous learning
Walk
Walk
the
the
Walk!!
Walk !
Ea
Each
ch ppla
layyeerr in
in th
thee SSix
ix SSig
igm
maa pprrooce
cessss m
muusst t bbee
AA RROOLE
LE M
MOODDEL
EL
fo
forr th
thee SSix
ix SSig
igm
maa cu
cultu
lturree..
Improve Phase - The Roadblocks
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address them before they
become problems:
Lack of data
Data presented is the best g uess by functional manag ers
Team members do not have the time to collect data
Process participants do not participate in the analysis planning
Lack of access to the process
Each phase will have roadblocks. Many will be similar throughout your project.
545
C hampion/
Process O wner
DMAIC Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
A ssess Sta bility, C apability a nd Mea surement Systems
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
The objective of the Improve Phase is simple utilize advanced statistical methods to identify
contributing variables OR more appropriately optimize variables to create a desired output.
Improve Phase
Over 80% of projects will realize their
solutions in the Analyze Phase
Designed Experiments can be extremely
effective when used properly, it is
imperative that a Designed Experiment is
justified. From an application and
practical standpoint, if you can identify a
solution by utilizing the strategy and tools
within the Measure and Analyze Phases,
then do it. Do not force Designed
Experiments.
Remember, your sole objective in
conducting a Lean Six Sigma project is to
find a solution to the problem. You
created a Problem Statement and an
Objective Statement at the beginning of
your project. However you can reach a
solution that achieves the stated goals in
the Objective Statement, than implement
them and move on to another issue
there are plenty!
A nalysis C omplete
Identify Few Vital Xs
Experiment to O ptimiz e Value of Xs
Simulate the N ew Process
Validate N ew Process
Implement N ew Process
Ready for C ontrol
546

Improve Phase Checklist
These are questions that the participant should be able to answer in clear, understandable language
at the end of this phase.
Planning for Action
WHAT
WHO
W H EN
WHY
W H Y N O T
HOW
A DO E to meet your problem solving strateg y

Scheduling your experimental plan
Executing your planned DO E
A nalysis of results form your DO E
O btain mathematical model to represent process
Planning the pilot validation for breakthroug h
Present statistical promise to process owner
Prepare for implementation of final model
Schedule resources, for implementation timeline
C onclude on expected financial benefits
Over the last decade of deploying Six Sigma it has been found that the parallel application of the
tools and techniques in a real project yields the maximum success for the rapid transfer of
knowledge. Thus we have developed a follow up process that involves planning for action between
the conclusion of this phase and the beginning of the Control Phase. It is imperative that you
complete this to keep you on the proper path. Thanks and good luck!
547

Have started to develop a project plan to complete the
action items
Be ready to apply the Six Sigma method within your
business
Youre on your way!!

You have now completed Improve Phase Wrap Up and Action Items.
Notes
548
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Welcome to Control
Now that we have completed the Improve Phase we are going to jump into the Control Phase.
Welcome to Control will give you a brief look at the topics we are going to cover.
549
Welcome to Control
Overview
These are the modules
we will cover in the
Control Phase as we
attempt to insure that
the gains we have
made with our project
remain in place..
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to CCoonntr
trooll
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd CCaa ppaa bbility
ility
Le
Leaa nn CCoonntro
trols
ls
D
Deefe
fect
ct CCoonntro
trols
ls
SSta
ta tis
tistica
tica l l PPrrooce
cessss CCoonntr
trool l
(S
(SPPCC))
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa CCoonntro
trol l PPla
la nnss
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
C hampion/
Process O wner
DMAIC Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
550
Welcome to Control
Control Phase Finality with Control Plans
Improvement S elected
Develop Training Plan
Implement Training Plan
Develop Documentation Plan
Implement Documentation Plan
Develop Monitoring Plan
Implement Monitoring Plan
Develop Response Plan
Implement Response Plan
Develop Plan to A lig n S ystems and S tructures
A lig n S ystems and S tructures
G o to N ext Project
551
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Advanced Experiments
Now we will continue in the Control Phase with Advanced Experiments.
552
Overview
This module is the Advanced DOE module. At first thought, you might wonder why this is covered in
the Control Phase instead of the Improve Phase. We include the Advanced DOE in this Control
Phase to emphasize the iterative nature of Design of Experiments. The iterative nature can include
a quick, statistically based technique for finding the highest or lowest response output known as the
steepest ascent or descent. We cover this methodology in depth including an example and
summary.
Beginnings of Control Phase

Youve already narrowed to the vital few with the Define, Measure, Analyze and Improve Phases.
Just because youve found the vital few, may not mean you have the final results desired from
the project scope.
The Control Phase involves controlling the Xs where you need the Y to perform.
If you havent achieved the output desired, one more DOE tool exists to help find where the inputs
should be.
553
Reminder of Iterative Nature for DOE
DOE is an iterative process, the approach taken depends on the information that is known.
Steepest ascent/decent is another method used to increase our knowledge and is used in
conjunction with factorials and/or response surface methods.
Purpose
The purpose of performing a Designed Experiment is to determine:
v The mathematical relationship Y=F(x1, x2, x3,).
v Which X's most impact Y, and therefore need to be controlled
v The level of each X to achieve the desired mean Y
v The level of each X to minimize the variability of Y
A DOE is needed only if this information cannot be obtained from passive analysis of the process.
v The danger of NOT running a Designed Experiment is the ability to prove cause and effect.
Regressions, correlations or multi-linear regressions show relationships but
cannot prove cause-effect relationships
DOEs prove cause and effect because variables are changed and the effect is
measured in the output(s) of interest
Steepest ascent/descent designs use proven cause-effect relationships and achieve quick
improving results for a project.
554
Steepest Ascent
The method of steepest
ascent guides you toward a
target outside the original
inference space.
The method takes the most
economical or shortest route
towards the target by staying
on the path of steepest
ascent.
Steepest Ascent/Descent
This methods starts with a Full or Fractional Factorial as the base to determine the direction of
steepest ascent/decent.
vThis method works best when there is no significant curvature in the model used to
determine direction, linearity is an assumption
The direction of ascent is determined using the coefficients in the Prediction Equation. This
method works best with a small number of variables; just 2 or 3.
Inference Space
How can the Prediction
Equation from the original
experiment miss the mark?
555
2-Factor Example for Steepest Ascent
Stepping Along the Path of Steepest Ascent
Our simulated process will be run at

the dotted points along the line so
we can observe the Y or the
output.
556
Taking a New Direction When Appropriate
At some point, once a local
maximum has been detected,
another factorial DOE may be
necessary to determine the next
direction.
Steepest Ascent Steps

Step 1: Obtain the coefficients for the prediction equation from a factorial DOE (must use coded
variables)
Step 2: Select the Base factor:
Most difficult to adjust
Discrete levels
Largest coefficient (This is recommended)
Step 3: Determine the step size, in coded units, that you will move in the direction of the Base
Factor
Step 4: Determine the step size for the other factors
Step 5: Move along the path and run the process at each step, continue along the path until either
the target value is achieved, or until a local maximum is reached
Step 6: If necessary, conduct another DOE to determine a new steepest ascent path, and repeat
steps 1-5
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b 2 X 2 + b3X3
557
Example of Projection Vector Method
Choosing the Step Size
558
Other Factor Step Size
Work through each step to find the optimum result.
559
Process Results from Steepest Ascent
560
Use the results of a DOE to determine how to further
optimize a process using the steepest ascent/descent method
You have now completed Control Phase Advanced Experiments.
Notes
561
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Advanced Capability
Now we will continue in the Control Phase with Advanced Capability.
562
Advanced Capability
Overview
Within this module we will explore using Process Capability to show a difference in process
performance as a result of your project efforts as well as review it as a monitoring tool to ensure
sustainability of improved efforts.
Beginnings of Control Phase

Youve already narrowed to the vital few with the Define, Measure, Analyze and Improve Phases.
Just because you are able to achieve results with your project or through a DOE does not mean you
have Process Capability.
This module in the Control Phase gives you tools and ideas to tackle Special Causes that may be
hampering your Process Capability even if you found your vital few to get an improved average.
By this time you should have made improvements with your project. How do you know? Well the
obvious is by continually monitoring your primary metric, which we know you have been doing,
right? Within this module we are going to look at another method to prove your projects impact on
the process with a more quantified approach. We will compare the Capability established in the
Measure Phase to a Capability Analysis here in the Control Phase. Ready to have some fun
563
Advanced Capability
Capability and Monitoring
If the project was important enough to warrant the time and attention of you and your team, it is
important enough to ensure that performance levels are maintained
Monitoring the improved process is a key element of the Control Plan
Reporting Capability and Stability should be used together as primary components of the
monitoring plan
In the Measure Phase, Capability was used to establish baseline performance by assessing
what had occurred in the relevant past
In the Control Phase, Capability becomes a predictive (inferential) tool to predict the expected
process performance, usually based on a sample.
Your project is clearly important, so much so that time and resources were allocated to it! One
aspect that is absolutely critical to your Control Phase action items and project closure is
Capability Analysis as a predictive measure. Recall in the Measure Phase we emphasized
taking a snapshot not worrying about Stability. Well now that you have fixed some stuff its
time to be concerned about Stability to ensure your efforts stick.
Capability Studies
Are intended to be periodic, estimations of a processs ability to meet its requirements
Can be conducted on both Discrete and Continuous Data
Are most meaningful when conducted on stable processes
Can be reported as Sigma Level which is optimal (short term) performance
These concepts should be remembered from using the Six Sigma toolset applied so far:
v Customer or business specification limits
Business specification limits cannot be wider than the specification limits of a
final product
v Nature of long term vs. short term data
v Mean and Standard Deviation of the process (for Continuous Data)
v The behavior and shape of the distribution of Continuous Data
v Procedure for determining Sigma level
v Relevance of data
You may want to take a moment to review the key components of Capability taught in the Measure
Phase. Here in the Control Phase Capability Studies are meaningful on stable processes. If
random events are occurring frequently, then predictability will be less secure.
564
Advanced Capability
As in the Measure
Phase, understanding
whether you are dealing
with long term or short
term data is an important
first step.
If the process is stable,
short term data provides
a quick estimate of true
process potential since
special causes are
minimal.
Recall the difference between short and long term. The long term is the variation across the
subgroups and within the subgroups. Think of it in terms of Population versus Sample. Subgroups
or Lot represent Short Term; Overall represents Long term. You will have to slice and dice your
data in respect to your business / process and determine what long term & short term are for your
process.
Capability for the Control Phase

Shown here is the roadmap for Capability within the Control Phase. Here we are going to teach
you how to perform Capability Analyses on both Continuous and Attribute Data. Remember to
always VALIDATE those spec limits!
565
Advanced Capability
Discrete Capability: Binomial
Itll get ya there!!

SigmaXL does not include a tool for Binary Process Capability Analysis. However the above
charts can be created using SigmaXL's P-Chart, Histogram and Scatter Plot tools.
Notes
566
Advanced Capability
Example of Defectives
Here we are reporting the Capability relative to Late Reports. The subgroup size is varying as is
the number of reports we analyze at each time frame for lateness.
From the Summary Stats we see the following. The % Defective of the process is nearly 18%.
Can you see that p bar is equal to 0.1756 PPM Def? This graph is a P-Chart which will be
covered in more detail later. The red dot in this graph indicates a Special Cause showing the
proportion of reports to be late to be excessively high and considered out of control.
567
Advanced Capability
Discrete Capability: Binomial Output
The upper left graph, is the plot of Proportion Defectives versus Sample Size. If this was widely
varying and with a non-level slope, we might conclude our detection of late reports depends on the
number of reports checked.
The last graph in the lower right shows a histogram of the % defective or late in our example. You
can see the target line of 10% and see that most if not all are above our target; the lower spec.
The summary stats are there for our help although in this example, we have no question that our
process is not capable with a target of less than 10% late reports. However, lets consider the
details of the summary stats box in the middle. The summary stats gives the % defective which was
equal to the p bar shown in the upper left slide. Confidence intervals are given for the percent late.
The ppm defective is just the p bar multiplied by a million. The process Z is determined from the
percent defective and is shown with confidence intervals also. Remember if this data was long term,
then the sigma level of the process would have a value added to this Z to obtain the sigma level. Do
you remember what value is assumed that separates Z short term and Z long term? Remember
when a process Z long term is used to estimate the Z short term, you add 1.5. In our example,
assuming this data is from a long term capability analysis, the sigma level of the process would be
2.43 with an upper confidence interval of 2.49 and a lower confidence interval of 2.38. Remember
that the summary stats do not indicate the percent of groups larger than the target but indicates the
percent defective as a whole.
568
Advanced Capability
Discrete Capability: Poisson
You can do a
Capability
Analysis using
the Poisson
Distribution in
SigmaXL if
you are
tracking the
number of
defective units.
Still works.!
More Capability Analysis

This Capability Analysis for defects per unit is similar to the binomial Capability Analysis.
However, there is no Z value stated for this Capability Analysis. Remember we had a desire for the
process to have less than one defect per unit. If you look at the lower right graph, you can see the
large majority of samples show less than 1.0 dpu. In this example even if the dpu never settled out
at some value, it is clear the average dpu is much less than 1.0. In fact, we have 95% confidence
that the upper confidence interval for the dpu is about 0.59.
569
Advanced Capability
Continuous Capability: Normal
This should look
familiar from the
Measure Phase. Here
we are treating the
data as individual
observations. Later
we will re-analyze the
data using Capability
Combination Report
(Subgroups) using
filler2 for Numeric
Data Variable (Y) and
time for Subgroup
Column or Size.
Continuous Capability: Normal Output Review

The black curve is
the predicted
Normal
Distribution for all
of the data using
the Overall (Long
Term) StDev.
The StDev
(Within, Short
Term) is
computed using
the Individuals
Chart MR-Bar/d2
estimate. This
gives us our
potential StDev,
i.e. entitlement.
If we had used Capability Combination Report (Subgroups), the StDev (Within, Short Term) would
be computed using the X-Bar & R or X-Bar & S Control Chart methods for within subgroup variation.
570
Advanced Capability
Continuous Capability: Normal Output Review
Note:
Confidence
Intervals for
Process
Capability
Indices may be
calculated using
SigmaXL>Basic
Process
Capability
Templates>Proc
ess Capability &
Confidence
Intervals
Normal Capability Sixpack

Notice the
Capability Plot
on the bottom
right. This
shows the
overall and
within variation
relative to the
placement and
width in the
specification
limits.
571
Advanced Capability
Continuous Capability: Non-Normal
Recall from the
Measure Phase that
you should always
take a look at your
data graphically; a
picture is worth a
1000 words. You
can almost always
use SigmaXL to
help you identify
what type of
distribution you are
dealing with and to
create a graphical
view of your data.
Also, this is a great
way to determine
Process Capability
without transforming
data.
Individual Distribution Identification Output

This is the output which you will use to determine your distribution. The P-values shown on each graph
are used to evaluate if the distribution an appropriate predictor. Since most decisions require only an
alpha risk of less than 5%, the P-values should be above 0.05. However, do not assume that a higher
P-value means one distribution is better than another. There is just less error of that being the
appropriate distribution to select.
572
Advanced Capability
Continuous Capability: Non-normal
Now that you have the distribution identified run a Capability Analysis as shown here. In the
Capability Combination Report (Individuals- Non-normal) select Cycletime as Numeric Data
Variable (Y). Ensure Weibull(2 Parameter) is selected for Specify Distribution.
Technical note from SigmaXL's workbook:

Z-Score Method (Default)
The Z-Score method for computing process capability indices are obtained by using the inverse
cdf of the normal distribution on the cdf of the Non-normal Distribution. Normal based capability
indices are then applied to the transformed z-values. This approach offers two key advantages:
the relationship between the capability indices and calculated defects per million is consistent
across the normal and all Non-normal Distributions, and short term capability indices Cp and Cpk
can be estimated using the standard deviation from control chart methods on the transformed zvalues. The Z-Score method was initially developed by Davis Bothe and expanded on by Andrew
Sleeper. For further details, see Sleeper, Six Sigma Distribution Modeling.
Percentile (ISO) Method
The Percentile method to calculate process capability indices uses the following formulas:
Ppu = (USL 50th percentile)/(99.865 percentile 50th percentile)
Ppl = (50th percentile LSL)/(50th percentile 0.135 percentile)
Ppk = min(Ppu, Ppl)
Pp = (USL LSL)/( 99.865 percentile 0.135 percentile)
References for Process Capability Indices:
Bothe, D.R. (1997). Measuring Process Capability, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Sleeper, A. (2006). Six Sigma Distribution Modeling, McGraw-Hill, New York.
573
Advanced Capability
Continuous Capability: Non-normal Output
Continuous Capability: Non-normal Output

This should look a bit more familiar. Since the data was Long Term, the sigma level of the process
would be adjusted by 1.5 and result in a sigma value of 1.48. Review the differential between
observed performance and expected performance, what does this tell you?
574
Advanced Capability
Practical Capability for the Control Phase
This is an example of using Process Capability differently than as presently in the Measure Phase.
Process Capability within the Control Phase comes with the use of Control Charts as shown here.
We will further explore this usage now since this is what allows us to make comparisons throughout
the methodology.
Assess improved
performance to establish the
new baseline don t try to
predict anything.
Just understand the
relationship of the
distribution to the spec limits
and convert the observed
failure rate to sigma level.
Use a Control Chart to help
understand the process
behavior over time and
identify unusual events.
Details on these Control
Charts are discussed later
in the Control Phase.
Technical notes from SigmaXL's workbook:

Individuals Original Data
The Individuals Original Data chart displays the untransformed data with Control Limits
calculated as:
UCL = 99.865 percentile
CL = 50th percentile
LCL = 0.135 percentile
The benefit of displaying this chart is that one can observe the original untransformed data. Since
the Control Limits are based on percentiles, this represents the overall, long term variation rather
than the typical short term variation. The limits will likely be non-symmetrical.
Individuals/Moving Range Normalized Data
The Individuals/Moving Range Normalized Data chart displays the transformed z-values with
control limits calculated using the standard Shewhart formulas for Individuals and Moving Range
charts. The benefit of using this chart is that tests for Special Causes can be applied and the
control limits are based on short term variation. The disadvantage is that one is observing
transformed data on the chart rather than the original data.
SigmaXL's default setting is to display the three charts: Individuals Original Data, Individuals &
Moving Range Normalized Data (with tests for Special Causes unchecked).
575
Advanced Capability
Practical Sustainability in Control Phase
Within the later phases of the methodology you can use Capability to identify Special Causes or
Outliers as shown here. If you can minimize them over time then the Process Capability will
improve!
Final Results of Control Phase

By eliminating Outliers your variation will reduce and your Median could shift. It is even possible that
you could Normalize your distribution.
576
Advanced Capability
Capability for the Control Phase
In summary be sure to capture the correct information to, one, prove the improvement in your
process and two, hand off the right information to the process owner for monitoring and measuring
the improved process.
577
Advanced Capability
Understand the importance of Capability Analysis as it is
applied in the Control Phase
Select the appropriate method for Capability Analysis based
on the type of data distribution of your process
Interpret the output of SigmaXLs Capability functions
Understand how the use for Capability Analysis may alter
through the DMAIC phases
You have now completed Control Phase Advanced Capability.
Notes
578
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Lean Controls
Now we will continue in the Control Phase with Lean Controls.
579
Lean Controls
Overview
You can see in this section of the course we will look at the Vision of Lean, Lean Tools and
Sustaining Project Success.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to CCoonntr
trooll
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
AA ddvvaa nnce
ility
Vision of Lean Supporting

Vision of Lean Supporting Six Sig
Six Sigma
ma
Le
Leaa nn CCoonntro
trols
ls
Lean Tool Hig

Lean Tool Highlig
hlights
hts
D
Deefe
fect
ct CCoonntro
trols
ls
Project Sustained Success

Project Sustained Success
SSta
ta tis
tistica
tica l l PPrrooce
cessss CCoonntr
trool l
(S
(SPPCC))
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa CCoonntro
trol l PPla
la nnss
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Lean Controls
Youve begun the process of sustaining your project after finding the vital few Xs.
In Advanced Process Capability, we discussed removing some of the Special Causes causing
spread from Outliers in the process performance.
This module gives more tools from the Lean toolbox to stabilize your process.
Belts, after some practice, often consider this modules set of tools a way to improve some
processes that are totally out of control or of such poor Process Capability before applying the Six
Sigma methodology.
The tools we are going to review within this module can be used to help control a process. They can
be utilized at any time in an improvement effort not just in Control. These Lean concepts can be
applied to help reduce variation, effect outliers or clean up a process before, during or at the
conclusion of a project.
Grab a tool and

get busy!!!
580
Lean Controls
The Vision of Lean Supporting Your Project
Remember, the goal is to achieve and the SUSTAIN our improvements. We discussed 5S in the
Define Phase but we are going to review it with a twist here in the Control Phase.
K anban
Th e C o n tin u o u s G o a l
S u s ta in in g R e s u lts
K a iz e n
W e ca n n o t s u s ta in
K a n b a n w ith o u t
K a iz e n .
S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk
p
V is u a l Fa cto ry
W e ca n n o t s u s ta in K a iz e n
(S ix S ig m a ) w ith o u t
S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk .
W e ca n n o t s u s ta in
S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk w ith o u t a
V is u a l Fa cto r y .
W e ca n n o t s u s ta in a
v is u a l fa cto ry w ith o u t 5 S .
Le a n to o ls a d d d is cip lin e re q u ire d to fu rth e r s u s ta in g a in s

re a liz e d w ith S ix S ig m a B e lt P ro je cts .
What is Waste (MUDA)?

The first step toward waste elimination is waste identification which you did originally with your Project
Charter and measured with your primary metric even if you didnt use the term waste. All Belt projects
focus efforts into one (or more) of these seven areas.
W a s te is o fte n th e ro o t o f a n y S ix S ig m a p ro je ct. Th e 7 b a s ic
e le m e n ts o f w a s te (m u d a in J a p a n e s e ) in clu d e :
M u d a o f C o r re ctio n
M u d a o f O v e rp ro d u ctio n
M u d a o f P ro ce s s in g
M u d a o f C o n v e y a n ce
M u d a o f In v e n to ry
M u d a o f M o tio n
M u d a o f W a itin g
Get that
g arbag outta
e outta hhere!!
ere!
Get that
garbage
Th e s p e cifics o f th e M U D A w e re d is cu s s e d in th e D e fin e P h a s e :
Th e re d u ctio n o f M U D A ca n re d u ce y o u r o u tlie rs a n d h e lp
w ith d e fe ct p re v e n tio n . O u tlie rs b e ca u s e o f d iffe rin g w a s te
a m o n g p ro ce d u re s , m a ch in e s , e tc.
581
Lean Controls
The Goal
Remember that any project
needs to be sustained. Muda
(pronounced like mooo dah)
are wastes than can reappear
if the following Lean tools are
not used. The goal is to have
your Belts move onto other
projects and not be used as
firefighters.
D o n t fo rg e t th e g o a l -- S u s ta in in g y o u r P ro je ct w h ich e lim in a te s
MUDA !
W ith th is in m in d , w e w ill in tro d u ce a n d re v ie w s o m e o f th e Le a n
to o ls u s e d to s u s ta in y o u r p ro je ct s u cce s s .
5S - Workplace Organization
The term 5S derives from the
5 S means the workplace is
Japanese words for five practices
clean, there is a place for
leading to a clean and
everything and everything
manageable work area. The five
is in its place.
S are: Seiri' means to
5 S is the starting point for
separate needed tools, parts, and
implementing
instructions from unneeded
improvements to a process.
materials and to remove the
To ensure your g ains are
latter. 'Seiton' means to neatly
sustainable, you must start
arrange and identify parts and
with a firm foundation.
tools for ease of use. 'Seiso'
Its streng th is conting ent
means to conduct a cleanup
upon the employees and
campaign. 'Seiketsu' means to
company being committed
conduct seiri, seiton, and seiso at
to maintaining it.
frequent, indeed daily, intervals to
maintain a workplace in perfect
condition. 'Shitsuke' means to
form the habit of always following the first four Ss.
On the next page we have translated the Japanese words to English words. Simply put, 5S
means the workplace is clean, there is a place for everything and everything is in its place. The
5S will create a workplace that is suitable for and will stimulate high quality and high productivity
work. It will make the workplace more comfortable and a place that you can be proud of.
Developed in Japan, this method assumes no effective and quality job can be done without clean
and safe environment and without behavioral rules. The 5S allow you to set up a well adapted
and functional work environment, ruled by simple yet effective rules. 5S deployment is done in a
logical and progressive way. The first three Ss are workplace actions, while the last two are
sustaining and progress actions.
It is recommended to start implementing 5S in a well chosen pilot workspace or pilot process and
spread to the others step by step.
582
Lean Controls
5S Translation - Workplace Organization
S te p J a p a n e s e
Lite ra l Tra n s la tio n
En g lis h
S te p 1 :
Seiri
C learing Up
Sorting
S te p 2 :
Seiton
O rg aniz ing
Straig htening
S te p 3 :
Seiso
C leaning
Shining
S te p 4 :
Seketsu
Standardiz ing
Standardiz ing
S te p 5 :
Shitsuke
Training & Discipline
Sustaining
Fo cu s o n u s in g th e En g lis h w o rd s , m u ch e a s ie r to re m e m b e r.
The English translations are:

Seiri = Sorting
Eliminate everything not required for the current work, keeping only the bare essentials.
Seiton = Straightening
Arrange items in a way that they are easily visible and accessible.
Seiso = Shining
Clean everything and find ways to keep it clean. Make cleaning a part of your everyday
work.
Seketsu = Standardizing
Create rules by which the first three Ss are maintained.
Shitsuke = Sustaining
Keep 5S activities from unraveling
583
Lean Controls
SORTING - Decide what is needed.
The first stage of 5S is to
organize the work area,
leaving only the tools
and materials necessary
to perform daily
activities. When
sorting is well
implemented,
communication between
workers is improved and
product quality and
productivity are
increased.
D e fin itio n :
To sort out necessary and

unnecessary items.
To store often used items at
the work area, infrequently
used items away from the
work area and dispose of
items that are not needed.
W hy :
Removes waste.
Safer work area.
G ains space.
Easier to visualiz e the
process.
Th
Thininggss to
to re
remmeemmbbeer r
Start in one area, then sort

Start in one area, then sort
throug
through everything
h everything. .
Discuss removal of items with all
Discuss removal of items with all
persons involved.
persons involved.
Use appropriate
Use appropriate
decontamina
decontamination, environmenta
tion, environmental, l,
and safety procedures.
and safety procedures.
Items tha
Items that ca
t cannot be removed
nnot be removed
immediately should be tag
immediately should be taggged
ed
for later removal.
for later removal.
if necessary, use movers and
if necessary, use movers and
rig
rigggers.
ers.
A Method for Sorting

5S usually begins with a
great initial cleaning,
where sorting out the
items is a highlight. For
each item, it must be
stated if it is useful,
useless or undetermined.
For some items, the
statement may be touchy,
as nobody seems to know
if they are really useful or
not, and what is their
frequency of use.
Ite m
U s e fu l
Unk now n
U s e le s s
K e ep &
M o n ito r
K e ep &
S to re
U s e fu l
S o rtin g
U s e les s
Always start with the

A B C
easiest items to classify.
S to ra g e
Difficulty should be no
excuse, go for it, starting with easiest: Sort each item according to three categories:
1. Useful
2. Useless
3. Unknown
D is p o s e
The two first categories are problem to sort as their status is clear. Dispose of immediately any
useless items, because they just clutter the workspace, lead to loss of time, confusion and poor
quality. For items in the unknown category or the frequency of use is unclear, keep them where
they are for a predetermined period of time and if found that they are not used dispose of them.
For items that are useful, there is also a method for determining how and where they should be
stored to help you achieve a clean and orderly workplace.
584
Lean Controls
Frequency of Use
A Method for Sorting
U s e th is g ra p h a s a g e n e ra l g u id e
fo r d e cid in g w h e re to s to re ite m s
a lo n g w ith th e ta b le b e lo w .
A
B
Distance
Frequency of
Utilization
Class
Keep within arms

reach
Keep in local
location
Keep in remote
location
Daily or several times

a day
YES
MAYBE
NO
Weekly
MAYBE
YES
NO
Monthly or quarterly
NO
NO
YES
After you have determined the usefulness of an item, set three classes for determining where to store an
item based on the frequency of use and the distance to travel to get the item. A is for things which are
to be kept close at hand, because the frequency of use is high. B is if the item is used infrequently but
approximately on a weekly basis. Do no put it on your work surface, rather keep in easy walking
distance, i.e. on a bookshelf or in a nearby cabinet, usually in the same room you are in. For C items it
is acceptable to store in a somewhat remote place, meaning a few minutes walk away.
By rigorously applying the sort action and the prescribed method, you will find that the remainder of the
5S items will be quite easy to accomplish. It is very difficult to order a large number of items in a given
space and the amount of cleaning increases with the number of items. Your workplace should only
contain those items needed on a daily to weekly basis to perform your job.
STRAIGHTENING Arranging Necessary Items
The second stage of
5S involves the
orderly arrangement
of needed items so
they are easy to use
and accessible for
anyone to find.
Orderliness eliminates
waste in production
and clerical activities.
D e fin itio n :
To arrang e all necessary items.

To have a desig nated place
for everything .
A place for everything and
everything in its place.
Easily visible and accessible.
W hy :
Visually shows what is required

or is out of place.
More efficient to find items and
documents (silhouettes/ labels).
Saves time by not having to
search for items.
Shorter travel distances.
Th
Thininggss to
to re
remmeemmbbeer r
Thing
Things used tog
s used together
ether
should be kept tog
should be kept together.
ether.
Use labels, tape, floor
Use labels, tape, floor
marking
markings, sig
s, signs, and
ns, and
shadow outlines.
shadow outlines.
SSharable items should be
harable items should be
kept at a central location
kept at a central location
(elimina
(eliminated excess).
ted excess).
585
Lean Controls
SHINING Cleaning the Workplace
The third stage of
5S is keeping
everything clean
and swept. This
maintains a safer
work area and
problem areas are
quickly identified.
An important part of
shining is Mess
Prevention. In
other words, dont
allow litter, scrap,
shavings, cuttings,
etc., to land on the
floor in the first
place.
D e fin itio n :
C lean everything and

find ways to keep it
clean.
Make cleaning a part
of your everyday work.
W hy :
A clean workplace
indicates a quality
product and process.
Dust and dirt cause
product contamination
and potential health
haz ards.
A clean workplace
helps identify abnormal
conditions.
Th
Thininggss to
to re
remmeemmbbeer r
Everything
Everything in its place
in its placefrees up
frees up
time for cleaning
time for cleaning. .
Use an office or facility layout as a
Use an office or facility layout as a
visual aid to identify individual
visual aid to identify individual
responsibilities for cleaning
responsibilities for cleaning. This
. This
eliminates no mans land.
eliminates no mans land.
CClea
leaning
ning the work area is like
the work area is like
bathing
bathing. It relieves stress and strain,
. It relieves stress and strain,
removes sweat and dirt, and
removes sweat and dirt, and
prepares the body for the next da
prepares the body for the next day.y.
STANDARDIZING Creating Consistency

The fourth stage of
5S involves creating
a consistent
approach for
carrying out tasks
and procedures.
Orderliness is the
core of
standardization
and is maintained by
Visual Controls
which might consist
of: Signboards,
Painted Lines, Colorcoding strategies
and Standardizing
Best Methods
across the
organization.
D e fin itio n :
To maintain the workplace

at a level that uncovers
problems and makes them
obvious.
To continuously improve
your office or facility by
continuous assessment and
action.
W hy :
To sustain sorting , storag e

and shining activities every
day.
Th
Thininggss to
to r reemmeemmbbeerr
W
e must keep the work place neat
W e must keep the work place neat
enoug
enough for visual identifiers to be
h for visual identifiers to be
effective in uncovering
effective in uncovering hidden
hidden
problems.
problems.
Develop a system tha
Develop a system that ena
t enables
bles
everyone in the workplace to see
everyone in the workplace to see
problems when they occur.
problems when they occur.
586
Lean Controls
SUSTAINING Maintaining the 5S
This last stage of 5S
is the discipline and
D e fin itio n :
commitment of all
other stages.
To maintain our
Without
discipline, we need to
sustaining, your
practice and repeat until
workplace can easily
it becomes a way of life.
revert back to being
dirty and chaotic.
Th
Thininggss to
to R Rem
emem
embbeer r
That is why it is so
Develop schedules and
W hy :
Develop schedules and
crucial for your team
check lists.
check lists.
To build 5
S into our
to be empowered to
GGood ha
ood habits are ha
bits are hard
rd
everyday process.
improve and
to establish.
to establish.
maintain their
CCommitment and discipline
ommitment and discipline
toward housekeeping
workplace. Keeping
toward housekeeping are
are
essentia
a 5S program vital in
essential first steps toward
l first steps toward
being
being world class.
world class.
an organization
creates a cleaner
workplace, a safer
workplace. It
contributes to how
we feel about our product, our process, our company and ourselves. It provides a customer
showcase to promote your business and product quality will improve especially by reducing
contaminants. Efficiency will increase also. When employees take pride in their work and
workplace it can lead to greater job satisfaction and higher productivity.
The Visual Factory
A visual factory can
best be represented by
a workplace where a
recently hired
supervisor can easily
identify inventory
levels, extra tools or
supplies, scrap issues,
downtime concerns or
even issues with setups
or changeovers.
The basis and foundation of a Visual Factory are the 5S Standards.

A Visual Factory enables a process to manage its processes with clear
indications of opportunities. Your team should ask the following
questions if looking for a project:
Can we readily identify Downtime Issues?
Can we readily identify Scrap Issues?
Can we readily identify Changeover Problems?
Can we readily identify Line Balancing Opportunities?
Can we readily identify Excessive Inventory Levels?
Can we readily identify Extraneous Tools & Supplies?
Exercise:
Can you come up with any opportunities for VISUAL aids in your
project?
What visual aids exist to manage your process?
587
Lean Controls
What is Standardized Work?
If the items are organized and orderly, then
standardized work can be accomplished.
Less Standard Deviation of results
Visual factory demands framework of
standardized work.
The one best way to perform each
operation has been identified and agreed
upon through general consensus (not
majority rules)
This defines the Standard work
procedure
We cannot sustain
Standardized Work
without 5S and the
Visual Factory.
Affected
employees
should
understand that
once they
together have
defined the
standard, they
will be expected
to perform the
job according to
that standard.
Standardized Work
Visual Factory
Prerequisites for Standardized Work
Standardized work does not happen without the Visual Factory which
can be further described with:
Availability of required tools (5S). Operators cannot be expected to
maintain standard work if required to locate needed tools
Consistent flow of raw material. Operators cannot be expected to
maintain standard work if they are searching for needed parts
Visual alert of variation in the process (Visual Factory). Operators,
material handlers, office staff all need visual signals to keep standard
work a standard
Identified and labeled in-process stock (5S). As inventory levels of inprocess stock decrease, a visual signal should be sent to the material
handlers to replenish this stock
The steps in developing CTQs are identifying the customer, capturing the Voice of the Customer
and finally validating the CTQs.
588
Lean Controls
What is Kaizen?
Definition*: The philosophy of continual

improvement, that every process can and
should be continually evaluated and
improved in terms of time required,
resources used, resultant quality and other
aspects relevant to the process.
Kaikaku are breakthrough successes which

are the first focus of Six Sigma projects.
* Note: Kaizen Definition from: All I Needed To

Know About Manufacturing I Learned
in Joe s Garage. Miller and Schenk,
Bayrock Press, 1996. Page 75.
Kaizen
Standardized Work
Visual Factory
A Kaizen event is very similar to a Six Sigma project. A Six Sigma project is actually a Kaizen.
By involving your project team or other in an area to assist with implementing the lean control or
concepts you will increase buy in of the team which will effect your projects sustainability.
Prerequisites for Kaizen
Kaizens need the following cultural elements:

Management Support. Consider the corporate support which is the reason why
Six Sigma focus is a success in your organization
Measurable Process. Without standardized work, we really wouldn t have a
consistent process to measure. Cycle times would vary, assembly methods
would vary, batches of materials would be mixed, etc
Analysis Tools. There are improvement projects in each organization which
cannot be solved by an operator. This is why we teach the analysis tools in the
breakthrough strategy of Six Sigma.
Operator Support. The organization needs
to understand that its future lies in the
success of the value-adding employees.
Our roles as Belts are to convince operators
that we are here for them--they will then be
there for us.
A Kaizen event can be small or large in scope. Kaizens are improvement with a purpose of
constantly improving a process. Some Kaizens are very small changes like a new jig or placement of
a product or more involved projects. Kaizens are Six Sigma projects with business impact.
589
Lean Controls
What is Kanban?
Kanbans are the best control method of inventory which impacts
some of the 7 elements of MUDA shown earlier.
Kanban provides production, conveyance, and delivery
Kanban
information. In it s purest form the system will not allow
any goods to be moved within the facility without an
appropriate Kanban (or signal) attached to the goods.
The Japanese word for a communication signal
Kaizen
or card--typically a signal to begin work
Kanban is the technique
Standardized Work
used to pull products and
material through and into
the lean manufacturing system.
The actual Kanban can be a
physical signal such as an empty
Visual Factory
container or a small card.
This is a building block. A Kanban needs to be supported by the previous steps we have reviewed. If
Kanbans are abused they will actually backfire and effect the process in a negative manner.
Two Types of Kanban
There are two categories of Kanbans, finished good Kanbans and incoming material Kanbans as
depicted here.
There are two main categories of Kanbans:

Ty p e 1 : Fin is h e d g o o d s K a n b a n s
S ig n a l K a n b a n : S h o u ld b e
p o s te d a t th e e n d o f th e
p r o ce s s in g a r e a to s ig n a l fo r
p r o d u ctio n to b e g in .
P .I.K K a n b a n : U s e d fo r a m u ch
m o r e r e fin e d le v e l o f in v e n to r y
co n tr o l. K a n b a n is p o s te d a s
in v e n to r y is d e p le te d th u s
in s u r in g o n ly th e m in im u m
a llo w a b le le v e l o f p r o d u ct is
m a in ta in e d .
Ty p e 2 : In co m in g M a te ria l K a n b a n s
U s e d to p u r ch a s e m a te r ia ls
fr o m a s u p p ly in g d e p a r tm e n t
e ith e r in te r n a l o r e x te r n a l to
th e o r g a n iz a tio n . R e g u la te s
th e a m o u n t o f W IP in v e n to r y
lo ca te d a t a p a r ticu la r p r o ce s s .
In tr a - p r o ce s s
P .I.K .
Production
Instruction Ka nba n
S ig n a l
W ith d r a w a l
In te r - P ro ce s s
Between two
processes
S u p p lie r
590
Lean Controls
Prerequisites for a Successful Kanban System
Kanbans should
smooth out inventory
and keep product
flowing but use them
cautiously. If you
prematurely
implement a Kanban
it WILL backfire.
Th e s e ite m s s u p p o rt s u cce s s fu l K a n b a n s :
Im p ro v e ch a n g e o v e r p ro ce d u re s .
R e la tiv e ly s ta b le d e m a n d cy cle .
N u m b e r o f p a rts p e r K a n b a n (ca rd ) M U S T b e s ta n d a rd a n d
S H O U LD b e k e p t to a s fe w a s p o s s ib le p a rts p e r ca rd .
S m a ll a m o u n t o f v a ria tio n (o r d e fe cts ).
N e a r z e ro d e fe cts s h o u ld b e s e n t to th e a s s e m b ly p ro ce s s
(R e s u lt o f e a rlie r b e lt p ro je cts ).
C o n s is te n t cy cle tim e s d e fin e d b y S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk .
M a te ria l h a n d le rs m u s t b e tra in e d in th e o rg a n iz a tio n o f th e

tra n s p o rta tio n s y s te m .
Warnings Regarding Kanban
If you do NOT have 5S, Visual Factory, standardized

work and ongoing Kaizens
Kanbans cannot succeed!

Kanban systems are not quick fixes to large inventory
problems, workforce issues, poor product planning,
fluctuating demand cycles, etc...
Don t forget that

weakest Link thing!!
It is not possible to implement a viable Kanban system without a strong support structure made up
of the prerequisites. One of the most difficult concepts for people to integrate is the simplicity of the
Lean tools and to keep the discipline. Benchmarks have organizations using up to seven years to
implement a successful Kanban System all the way through supplier and customer supply chain.
591
Lean Controls
The Lean Tools and Sustained Project Success
Th e Le a n to o ls h e lp s u s ta in p ro je ct s u cce s s . Th e m a in le s s o n s y o u
s h o u ld co n s id e r a re :
1 . Th e TEA M s h o u ld 5 S th e p ro je ct a re a a n d b e g in in te g ra tin g v is u a l
fa cto r y in d ica to r s .
In d ica tio n s o f th e n e e d fo r 5 S a re :
O u tlie r s in y o u r p ro je ct m e tric
Lo s s o f in itia l g a in s fr o m p r o je ct fin d in g s
2 . Th e TEA M s h o u ld d e v e lo p S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk In s tru ctio n s
Th e y a re r e q u ire d to s u s ta in y o u r s y s te m b e n e fits .
H o w e v e r, r e m e m b e r w ith o u t a n o rg a n iz e d w o rk p la ce w ith
5 S s ta n d a rd iz e d w o rk in s tr u ctio n s w o n t cre a te co n s is te n cy
3 . K a iz e n s a n d K a n b a n s ca n n o t b e a tte m p te d w ith o u t o r g a n iz e d
w o rk p la ce s a n d o r g a n iz e d w o rk in s tru ctio n s .
R e m e m b e r th e n e e d fo r 5 S a n d S ta n d a rd iz e d W o rk
In s tru ctio n s to s u p p o rt o u r p r o je cts .
4 . P ro je ct S co p e d icta te s h o w fa r u p th e Le a n to o ls la d d e r y o u n e e d
to im p le m e n t m e a s u re s to s u s ta in a n y p r o je ct s u cce s s fr o m y o u r
D M A IC e ffo rts .
The 5 Lean concepts are an excellent method for Belts to sustain their project success. If you have
outliers, declining benefits or dropping process capability, you need to consider the concepts
presented in this module.
Class Exercise
In th e b o u n d a rie s fo r y o u r p ro je ct s co p e , g iv e s o m e
e x a m p le s o f Le a n to o ls in o p e ra tio n .
O th e rs ca n le a rn fro m th o s e ite m s y o u co n s id e r b a s ic.
Lis t o th e r Le a n to o ls y o u a re m o s t in te re s te d in a p p ly in g to
s u s ta in y o u r p ro je ct re s u lts .
To g e n e ra te th e Ex e rcis e in fo rm a tio n co n s id e r w a lk in g
a ro u n d y o u r fa cility , e s p e cia lly if it is N O T a m a n u fa ctu rin g
o n e , a n d co n s id e r w h e re a v is u a l fa cto ry w o u ld b e u s e fu l
a lo n g w ith th e o th e r 4 Le a n co n ce p ts re v ie w e d .
592
Lean Controls
Describe some Lean tools
Understand how these tools can help with project
sustainability
Understand how the Lean tools depends on each other
Understand how tools must document the defect prevention
created in the Control Phase
You have now completed Control Phase Lean Controls.
Notes
593
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Defect Controls
Now we will continue in the Control Phase with the Defect Controls.
594
Defect Controls
Overview
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to CCoonntr
trooll
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
AA ddvvaa nnce
ility
Le
Leaa nn CCoonntro
trols
ls
Rea
Realistic Tolera
listic Tolerance a
nce and Six Sig
nd Six Sigma Desig
ma Designn
D
Deefe
fect
ct CCoonntro
trols
ls
Process A
Process Automa
utomation or Interruption
tion or Interruption
SSta
ta tis
tistica
tica l l PPrrooce
cessss CCoonntr
trool l
(S
P
C
)
(S P C )
Poka
Poka--YYoke
oke
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa CCoonntro
trol l PPla
la nnss
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
In an effort to put in place Defect Controls we will examine Tolerances, Process Automation and
Poka-Yoke.
Purpose of Defect Prevention in Control Phase
P ro ce s s im p r o v e m e n t e ffo rts o fte n fa lte r d u rin g im p le m e n ta tio n o f
n e w o p e ra tin g m e th o d s le a rn e d in th e A n a ly z e a n d Im p ro v e
P h a s e s .
S u s ta in a b le im p ro v e m e n ts ca n n o t b e a ch ie v e d w ith o u t co n tro l
ta ctics to g u a ra n te e p e r m a n e n cy .
D e fe ct P r e v e n tio n s e e k s to g a in p e rm a n e n cy b y e lim in a tin g o r
rig id ly d e fin in g h u m a n in te rv e n tio n in a p ro ce s s .
YYes
es ssir,
ir, wwe
e aare
re i in
n CCONTROL!!
ONTR OL !
With Defect Prevention we want to ensure that the improvements created during the project stay in place.
595
Defect Controls
Sigma Level for Project Sustaining in Control
5-6: Six Sigma product and/or process design eliminates an error

condition OR an automated system monitors the process and
automatically adjust Critical X s to correct settings without human
intervention to sustain process improvements
BEST
4-5: Automated mechanism shuts down the process and prevents

further operation until a required action is performed
3-5: Mistake Proofing prevents a product/service from passing onto
the next step
3-4: SPC on X s with the Special Causes are identified and acted
upon by fully trained operators and staff who adhere to the rules
2-4: SPC on Y s
1-3: Development of SOPs and process audits
0-1: Training and awareness
WORST
Our objective is to achieve the highest sigma level at acceptable costs.
Copyright OpenSourceSixSigma.com
596
Defect Controls
Sigma Level for Project Sustaining in Control
The best approach to Defect Prevention is to design Six Sigma right into the process.
Specification on Y
D e s ig n in g p ro d u cts a n d p ro ce s s e s s u ch th a t th e o u tp u t Y m e e ts o r
e x ce e d s th e ta rg e t ca p a b ility .
24
22
Distribution
of Y
21
19
Relationship
Y = F(x)
17
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Distribution of X
W hen desig ning the part or process, specifica tions on X are set such tha t the
targ et capability on Y is achieved.
Both the targ et and tolerance of the X must be addressed in the spec limits.
6s Product/Process Design
Upper
Prediction
Interval
Specification on
Y
24
22
Distribution
of Y
Relationship
Y = F(x)
21
19
17
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Distribution of X
20
Lower
Prediction
Interval
If th e r e la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n X a n d Y is e m p irica lly d e v e lo p e d

th ro u g h re g re s s io n s o r D O E s u n ce rta in ty e x is ts .
A s a re s u lt, co n fid e n ce in te rv a ls s h o u ld b e u s e d w h e n e s ta b lis h i n g
th e s p e cifica tio n s fo r X .
597
Defect Controls
Product/Process Design Example
Usually we use the prediction band provided by SigmaXL. This is controllable by manipulation of
the confidence intervals. 90%, 05%, 99%, etc. Play with adjusting the prediction bands to see the
effect it has.
Regression Plot
Y = 2.32891 - 0.282622X
R-Sq = 96.1 %
Output2
10
N o te : H ig h o u tp u t s p e c co n n e cts
w ith to p lin e in b o th ca s e s .
5
Regression
Regression Plot
95% PI
Y = 7.75434 + 5.81104X
-30
-20
-10
R-Sq = 88.0 %
Input2
90
80
70
Output
60
50
40
30
20
Lo w e r in p u t s p e c
Regression
10
95% PI
10
Input
U s in g to p o u tp u t s p e c d e te rm in e s h ig h o r lo w to le ra n ce fo r in p u t
d e p e n d in g o n s lo p e o f r e g re s s io n
598
Defect Controls
Poor Regression Impacting Tolerancing
Mr. Correlation
is poor!!
5 6 Full Automation
Fu ll A u to m a tio n : Systems that monitor the process and automatically
adjust critical Xs to correct setting s
A utomatic g aug ing and system adjustments
A utomatic detection and system activation systems - landing g ear
extension based on aircraft speed and power setting
Systems that count cycles and automatically make adjustments based
on an optimum number of cycles
A utomated temperature controllers for controlling heating and cooling
systems
A nti-Lock braking systems
A utomatic welder control units for volts, amps and distance traveled
on each weld cycle
Automation can be an option as well which removes the human element and its inherent
variation. Although use caution to automate a process, many time people jump into automation
prematurely, if you automate a poor process what will that do for you?
599
Defect Controls
Full Automation Example
Dont worry boss, its automated!!!
4 5 Process Interruption
P r o ce s s In te rru p tio n : Mechanism installed that shuts down the

process and prevents further operation until a required action is
preformed:
G round fault circuit breakers
C hild proof caps on medications
Software routines to prevent undesirable commands
Safety interlocks on equipment such as lig ht curtains, dual palm
buttons, ram blocks
Transfer system g uides or fixtures that prevent over or undersiz ed
parts from proceeding
Temperature conveyor interlocks on ovens
Missing component detection that stops the process when trig g ered
600
Defect Controls
4 5 Process Interruption (cont.)
Ex a m p le :
A B la ck B e lt is w o rk in g o n la u n ch in g a n e w e le ctric d riv e u n it
o n a tra n s fe r s y s te m
O n e co m m o n fa ilu re m o d e o f th e s y s te m is a b e a rin g fa ilu re
o n th e m a in m o to r s h a ft
It w a s d e te r m in e d th a t a h ig h p re s s fit a t b e a rin g
in s ta lla tio n w a s ca u s in g th e s e fa ilu re s
Th e ro o t ca u s e o f th e p ro b le m tu rn e d o u t to b e u n d e rs iz e d
b e a rin g s fro m th e s u p p lie r
U n til th e s u p p lie r co u ld b e b ro u g h t in to co n tro l o r re p la ce d , th e
te a m im p le m e n te d a p re s s lo a d m o n ito r a t th e b e a rin g p re s s
w ith a in d ica to r
If th e m o n ito r d e te cts a p re s s lo a d h ig h e r th a n th e s e t p o in t,
it s h u ts d o w n th e p re s s a n d w ill n o t a llo w th e u n it to b e
re m o v e d fro m p re s s u n til a n in te rlo ck k e y is tu rn e d a n d th e
ra m re s e t in th e m a n u a l m o d e
O n ly th e lin e le a d p e rs o n a n d th e s u p e rv is o r h a v e k e y s to
th e in te rlo ck
Th e n o n -co n fo rm in g p a rt is a u to m a tica lly m a rk e d w ith re d
dye
P ro ce s s In te rru p tio n
3 5 Mistake Proofing
Mistake Proofing is
great because it is
usually inexpensive
and very effective.
Consider the many
everyday examples of
Mistake Proofing.
You can not fit the
diesel gas hose into
an unleaded vehicle
gas tank. Pretty
straightforward, right?
M is ta k e P ro o fin g is best defined as:

Using wisdom, ing enuity, or serendipity to create devices
allowing a 1 0 0 % defect free step 1 0 0 % of the time
Poka-Y oke is the Japanese term for mistake proofing or to avoid
yokeuro inadvertent errors poka.
1
S ee ifi f you
y ou can
See
can
find
find
the the
Pok a-
PokaY ok es!Yokes!!
601
Defect Controls
Traditional Quality vs. Mistake Proofing
This clearly
highlights the
difference between
the two
approaches. What
are the benefits to
the Source
Inspection method?
Tra d itio n a l In s p e ctio n

R e s u lt
W orker or
Machine Error
Discover
Error
Dont Do
A nything
Sort
A t O ther
Step
Defective
Take A ction/
Feedback
N ext
Step
No
Defect
S o u rce In s p e ctio n
K EEP ER R O R S FR O M
TU R N IN G IN TO D EFEC TS
Styles of Mistake Proofing
Th e re a re 2 s ta te s o f a d e fe ct w h ich a re a d d re s s e d w ith
m is ta k e p ro o fin g .
ER R O R A B O U T TO O C C U R
ER R O R H A S O C C U R R ED
D EFEC T A B O U T TO O C C U R
(P re d ictio n )
D EFEC T H A S O C C U R R ED
(D e te ctio n )
W A R N IN G S IG N A L
W A R N IN G S IG N A L
C O N TR O L / FEED B A C K
C O N TR O L / FEED B A C K
S H U TD O W N
(S to p O p e ra tio n )
S H U TD O W N
(S to p O p e ra tio n )
602
Defect Controls
Mistake Proofing Devices Design
H in ts to h e lp d e s ig n a m is ta k e p ro o fin g d e v ice :
S im p le
In e x p e n s iv e
G iv e p ro m p t fe e d b a ck
G iv e p ro m p t a ctio n (p r e v e n tio n )
Fo cu s e d a p p lica tio n
H a v e th e rig h t p e o p le s in p u t
B ES T ...makes it impossible for errors to occur

B ETTER
allows for detection while error is being made
G O O D ...detects defect before it continues to the next operation

The very best approaches make creating a defect impossible, recall the gas hose example, you
can not put diesel fuel into an unleaded gas tank unless you really try hard or have a hammer.
Types of Mistake Proof Devices
C o n ta ct M e th o d
Guide Pins of
P h y s ica l o r e n e rg y co n ta ct Different
Siz
es

w ith p ro d u ct
Lim it s w itch e s
P h o to -e le ctric b e a m s
Error Detection
Fix e d V a lu e M e th o d
and Alarms
N u m b e r o f p a rts to b e
a tta ch e d / a s s e m b le d e tc.
a re co n s ta n t
Limit Switches
N u m b e r o f s te p s d o n e
in o p e ra tio n
Lim it s w itch e s
Counters
M o tio n -s te p M e th o d
C h e ck s fo r co rre ct s e q u e n cin g
C h e ck s fo r co rre ct tim in g
Checklists
P h o to -e le ctric s w itch e s
a n d tim e rs
603
Defect Controls
Mistake Proofing Examples
Lets consider
examples of
mistake proofing
or Poka-Yoke
devices even in
the home. Have a
discussion about
them in the work
environment as
well.
Ev e r y d a y e x a m p le s o f m is ta k e -p r o o fin g :
H om e
A u to m a te d s h u to ffs o n e le ctric
co ffe e p o ts
G ro u n d fa u lt circu it b re a k e rs fo r
b a th ro o m in o r o u ts id e e le ctric
circu its
P ilo tle s s g a s ra n g e s a n d h o t
w a te r h e a te rs
C h ild p ro o f ca p s o n m e d ica tio n s
B u ta n e lig h te rs w ith s a fe ty
b u tto n
C o m p u te rs
M o u s e in s e rtio n
U S B ca b le co n n e ctio n
B a tte ry in s e rtio n
P o w e r s a v e fe a tu re
A u to m o b ile
S e a t b elts
A ir b a g s
C a r e n g in e w a r n in g lig h ts
O ffice
S p e ll ch e ck in w o rd p ro ce s s in g
s o ftw a re
Q u e s tio n in g D o y o u w a n t to
d e le te a fte r d e p re s s in g th e
D e le te b u tto n o n y o u r
co m p u te r
Fa cto ry
D u a l p a lm b u tto n s a n d o th e r
g u a rd s o n m a ch in e ry
R e ta il
Ta m p e r p ro o f p a ck a g in g
Advantages of Mistake Proofing as a Control Method

M is ta k e P ro o fin g a d v a n ta g e s in clu d e :
O n ly s im p le tr a in in g p ro g ra m s a re r e q u ir e d
In s p e ctio n o p e ra tio n s a r e e lim in a te d a n d th e p ro ce s s is s im p lifi e d
R e lie v e s o p e r a to rs fro m re p e titiv e ta s k s o f ty p ica l v is u a l in s p e ctio n
P ro m o te s cre a tiv ity a n d v a lu e a d d in g a ctiv itie s
R e s u lts in d e fe ct fre e w o rk
R e q u ire s im m e d ia te a ctio n w h e n p ro b le m s a ris e
P ro v id e s 1 0 0 % in s p e ctio n in te r n a l to th e o p e ra tio n
Th e b e s t re s o u rce fo r p icto ria l e x a m p le s o f M is ta k e P ro o fin g is :
P o k a -Y o k e : Im p ro v in g P ro d u ct Q u a lity b y P re v e n tin g D e fe cts .

O v e rv ie w b y H iro y u k i H ira n o . P ro d u ctiv ity P re s s , 1 9 8 8 .)
To see a much more in-depth review of improving the product or service quality by preventing defects
you MUST review the book shown here. A comprehensive 240 Poka-Yoke examples are shown and
can be applied to many industries. The Poka-Yokes are meant to address errors from processing,
assembly, mounting, insertion, measurement, dimensional, labeling, inspection, painting, printing,
misalignment and many other reasons.
604
Defect Controls
Defect Prevention Culture and Good Control Plans
All of the Defect Prevention methods used must be documented in your FMEA and the Control
Plan discussed later in the Control Phase.
Class Exercise
B re a k in to y o u r g ro u p s a n d d is cu s s m is ta k e p ro o fin g s y s te m s
cu rre n tly a t y o u r fa cilitie s
Id e n tify o n e a u to m a tio n e x a m p le a n d o n e p ro ce s s in te rru p tio n
e x a m p le p e r g ro u p
B e p re p a re d to p re s e n t b o th e x a m p le s to th e cla s s
A n s w e r th e fo llo w in g q u e s tio n s a s p a rt o f th e d is cu s s io n a n d
p re s e n ta tio n :
H o w w a s th e n e e d fo r th e co n tro l s y s te m id e n tifie d ? If a
critica l X is m is ta k e p ro o fe d , h o w w a s it id e n tifie d a s b e in g
critica l?
H o w a re th e y m a in ta in e d ?
H o w a re th e y v e rifie d a s w o rk in g p ro p e rly ?
A re th e y e v e r d is a b le d ?
Y o u h a v e 3 0 m in u te s !
Prepare a probable defect prevention method to apply to your
project.
List any potential barriers to implementation.
Tic toc..!
605
Defect Controls
Describe some methods of Defect Prevention
Understand how these techniques can help with project
sustainability:
- Including reducing those outliers as seen in
the Advanced Process Capability section
- If the vital X was identified, prevent the cause
of defective Y
Understand what tools must document the Defect Prevention
created in the Control Phase
You have now completed Control Phase Defect Controls.
Notes
606
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Statistical Process Control
We will now continue in the Control Phase with Statistical Process Control or SPC.
607

Overview
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to CCoonntr
trooll
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
AA ddvvaa nnce
ility
Le
Leaa nn CCoonntro
trols
ls
D
Deefe
fect
ct CCoonntro
trols
ls
SSta
ta tis
tistica
tica l l PPrrooce
cessss CCoonntr
trool l
(S
(SPPCC))
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa CCoonntro
trol l PPla
la nnss
Elements and Purpose

Elements and Purpose
Methodolog
Methodologyy
Special C
Special Caause Tests
use Tests
Exa
Examples
mples
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Statistical techniques can be used to monitor and manage process performance. Process
performance, as we have learned, is determined by the behavior of the inputs acting upon it in the
form of Y=f(X). As a result it must be well understood that we can only monitor the performance of a
process output. Many people have applied Statistical Process Control (SPC) to only the process
outputs. Because they were using SPC, their expectations were high regarding a new potential level
of performance and control over their processes. However, because they only applied SPC to the
outputs, they were soon disappointed. When you apply SPC techniques to outputs, it is
appropriately called Statistical Process Monitoring or SPM.
You of course know that you can only control an output by controlling the inputs that exert an
influence on that output. This is not to say that applying SPC techniques to an output is bad, there
are valid reasons for doing this. Six Sigma has helped us all to better understand where to apply
such control techniques.
In addition to controlling inputs and monitoring outputs, Control Charts are used to determine the
Baseline performance of a process, evaluate measurement systems, compare multiple processes,
compare processes before and after a change, etc. Control Charts can be used in many situations
that relate to process characterization, analysis and performance.
To better understand the role of SPC techniques in Six Sigma, we will first investigate some of the
factors that influence processes, then review how simple probability makes SPC work and finally
look at various approaches to monitoring and controlling a process.
608

SPC Overview: Collecting Data
Control Charts are usually derived
P o p u la tio n :
from samples taken from the
A n entire g roup of objects that have been made or will be
made containing a cha racteristic of interest
larger population. Sampling must
S a m p le :
be collected in such a way that it
A sample is a subset of the population of interest
does not bias or distort the
The g roup of objects actually measured in a statistical
interpretation of the Control Chart.
study
The process must be allowed to
Samples are used to estimate the true population
operate normally when taking a
parameters
sample. If there is any special
treatment or bias given to the
P o p u la tio n
process over the period the data
is collected, the Control Chart
interpretation will be invalid. The
S a m p le
frequency of sampling depends
S a m p le
on the volume of activity and the
S a m p le
ability to detect trends and
patterns in the data. At the onset,
you should error on the side of taking extra samples, and then, if the process demonstrates its ability to
stay in control, you can reduce the sampling rate.
Using rational subgroups is a common way to assure that this does not happen. A rational subgroup is
a sample of a process characteristic in which all the items in the sample were produced under very
similar conditions and in a relatively short time period. Rational subgroups are usually small in size,
typically consisting of 3 to 5 units to make up the sample. It is important that rational subgroups consist
of units that were produced as closely as possible to each other, especially if you want to detect
patterns, shifts and drifts. If a machine is drilling 30 holes a minute and you wanted to collect a sample
of hole sizes, a good rational subgroup would consist of 4 consecutively drilled holes. The selection of
rational subgroups enables you to accurately distinguish Special Cause variation from Common Cause
variation.
Make sure that your samples are not biased in any way, meaning that they are randomly selected. For
example, do not plot only the first shifts data if you are running multiple shifts. Dont look at only one
vendors material if you want to know how the overall process is really running. Finally, dont
concentrate on a specific time to collect your samples; like just before the lunch break.
If your process consists of multiple machines, operators or other process activities that produce
streams of the same output characteristic you want to control, it would be best to use separate Control
Charts for each of the output streams.
If the process is stable and in control, the sample observations will be randomly distributed around the
average. Observations will not show any trends or shifts and will not have any significant outliers from
the random distribution around the average. This type of behavior is to be expected from a normally
operating process and that is why it is called Common Cause variation. Unless you are intentionally
trying to optimize the performance of a process to reduce variation or change the average, as in a
typical Six Sigma project, you should not make any adjustments or alterations to the process if it is
demonstrating only Common Cause variation. That can be a big time saver since it prevents wild
goose chases.
If Special Cause variation occurs, you must investigate what created it and find a way to prevent it from
happening again. Some form of action is always required to make a correction and to prevent future
occurrences.
609

SPC Overview: I-MR Chart
Individuals (I) and Moving Range (MR) Charts are used when each measurement represents one
batch. The subgroup size is equal to one when I-MR Charts are used. These charts are very
simple to prepare and use. The graphic shows the Individuals Chart where the individual
measurement values are plotted with the Center Line being the average of the individual
measurements. The Moving Range Chart shows the range between two subsequent
measurements.
There are certain situations when opportunities to collect data are limited or when grouping the
data into subgroups simply doesn't make practical sense. Perhaps the most obvious of these
cases is when each individual measurement is already a rational subgroup. This might happen
when each measurement represents one batch, when the measurements are widely spaced in
time or when only one measurement is available in evaluating the process. Such situations
include destructive testing, inventory turns, monthly revenue figures and chemical tests of a
characteristic in a large container of material.
All of these situations indicate a subgroup size of one. Because this chart is dealing with individual
measurements it, is not as sensitive as the X-Bar Chart in detecting process changes.
610

SPC Overview: Xbar-R Chart
An XBar-R Chart is used primarily to monitor and control the stability of the average value. The XBar
Chart plots the average values of each of a number of small sampled subgroups. The averages of
the process subgroups are collected in sequential, or chronological, order from the process. The
XBar Chart, together with the R Chart shown, is a sensitive method to identify assignable causes of
product and process variation and gives great insight into short-term variations.
These charts are most effective when they are used together. Each chart individually shows only a
portion of the information concerning the process characteristic. The upper chart shows how the
process average (central tendency) changes. The lower chart shows how the variation of the process
has changed.
It is important to control both the process average and the variation separately because different
corrective or improvement actions are usually required to effect a change in each of these two
parameters.
The R Chart must be in control in order to interpret the averages chart because the Control Limits are
calculated considering both process variation and center. When the R Chart is not in control, the
control limits on the averages chart will be inaccurate and may falsely indicate an out of control
condition. In this case, the lack of control will be due to unstable variation rather than actual changes
in the averages.
XBar and RBar Charts are often more sensitive than I-MR, but are frequently done incorrectly. The
most common error is failure to perform rational sub-grouping correctly.
A rational subgroup is simply a group of items made under conditions that are as nearly identical as
possible. Five consecutive items, made on the same machine, with the same setup, the same raw
materials and the same operator, are a rational subgroup. Five items made at the same time on
different machines are not a rational subgroup. Failure to form rational subgroups correctly will make
your XBar-R Charts dangerously wrong.
611

SPC Overview: U Chart
The U Chart plots defects per unit data collected from subgroups of equal or unequal sizes. The
U in U Charts stands for defects per Unit. U Charts plot the proportion of defects that are
occurring.
The U Chart and the C Chart are very similar. They both are looking at defects but the U Chart does
not need a constant sample size like the sample size like the C Chart. The Control Limits on the U
Chart vary with the sample size and therefore they are not uniform, similar to the P Chart which we
will describe next.
Counting defects on forms is a common use for the U Chart. For example, defects on insurance
claim forms are a problem for hospitals. Every claim form has to be checked and corrected before
going to the insurance company. When completing a claim form, a particular hospital must fill in 13
fields to indicate the patients name, social security number, DRG codes and other pertinent data.
A blank or incorrect field is a defect.
A hospital measured their invoicing performance by calculating the number of defects per unit for
each days processing of claims forms. The graph demonstrates their performance on a U Chart.
The general procedure for U Charts is as follows:
1. Determine purpose of the chart
2. Select data collection point
3. Establish basis for sub-grouping
4. Establish sampling interval and determine sample size
5. Set up forms for recording and charting data and write specific instructions on
use of the chart
6. Collect and record data.
7. Count the number of nonconformities for each of the subgroups
8. Input into Excel or other statistical software.
9. Interpret chart together with other pertinent sources of information on the process
and take corrective action if necessary
612

SPC Overview: P Chart
The P Chart plots the proportion of nonconforming units collected from subgroups of equal or
unequal size (percent defective). The proportion of defective units observed is obtained by dividing
the number of defective units observed in the sample by the number of units sampled. P Charts
name comes from plotting the Proportion of defectives. When using samples of different sizes, the
upper and lower Control Limits will not remain the same - they will look uneven as exhibited in the
graphic. These varying Control Chart limits are effectively managed by Control Charting software.
A common application of a P Chart is when the data is in the form of a percentage and the sample
size for the percentage has the chance to be different from one sample to the next. An example
would be the number of patients that arrive late each day for their dental appointments. Another
example is the number of forms processed daily that had to be reworked due to defects. In both of
these examples, the total quantity would vary from day to day.
The general procedure for P Charts is as follows:
1. Determine purpose of the chart
2. Select data collection point
3. Establish basis for sub-grouping
4. Establish sampling interval and determine sample size
5. Set up forms for recording and charting data and write specific instructions on
use of the chart
6. Collect and record data. It is recommended that at least 20 samples be used to
calculate the Control Limits
7. Compute P, the proportion nonconforming for each of the subgroups
8. Load data into Excel or other statistical software
9. Interpret chart together with other pertinent sources of information on the
process and take corrective action if necessary
613

SPC Overview: Control Methods/Effectiveness
Type 1 Corrective Action = Countermeasure: improvement made to the process
which will eliminate the error condition from occurring. The defect will never be created.
This is also referred to as a long-term corrective action in the form of mistake proofing
or design changes.
Type 2 Corrective Action = Flag: improvement made to the process which will detect
when the error condition has occurred. This flag will shut down the equipment so that
the defect will not move forward.
SPC on X s or Y s with fully trained operators and staff who respect the rules. Once a
chart signals a problem everyone understands the rules of SPC and agrees to shut
down for Special Cause identification. (Cpk > certain level).
Type 3 Corrective Action = Inspection: implementation of a short-term containment
which is likely to detect the defect caused by the error condition. Containments are
typically audits or 100% inspection.
SPC on X s or Y s with fully trained operators. The operators have been trained and
understand the rules of SPC, but management will not empower them to stop for
investigation.
S.O.P. is implemented to attempt to detect the defects. This action is not sustainable
short-term or long-term.
SPC on X s or Y s without proper usage = WALL PAPER.
The most effective form of control is called a type 1 corrective action. This is a control applied to the
process which will eliminate the error condition from occurring. The defect can never happen. This
is the prevention application of the Poka-Yoke method.
The second most effective control is called a type 2 corrective action. This a control applied to the
process which will detect when an error condition has occurred and will stop the process or shut
down the equipment so that the defect will not move forward. This is the detection application of
the Poka-Yoke method.
The third most effective form of control is to use SPC on the Xs with appropriate monitoring on the
Ys. To be effective, employees must be fully trained, they must respect the rules and management
must empower the employees to take action. Once a chart signals a problem, everyone
understands the rules of SPC and agrees to take emergency action for special cause identification
and elimination.
The fourth most effective correction action is the implementation of a short-term containment which
is likely to detect the defect caused by the error condition. Containments are typically audits or
100% inspection.
Finally you can prepare and implement an S.O.P. (standard operating procedure) to attempt to
manage the process activities and to detect process defects. This action is not sustainable, either
short-term or long-term.
Do not do SPC for the sake of just saying that you do SPC. It will quickly deteriorate to a waste of
time and a very valuable process tool will be rejected from future use by anyone who was
associated with the improper use of SPC.
Using the correct level of control for an improvement to a process will increase the acceptance of
changes/solutions you may wish to make and it will sustain your improvement for the long-term.
614

Purpose of Statistical Process Control
Causes of Variation are either:

Common Cause: Reoccurring variability
Special Cause: Unusual variability
Assignable: Reason for detected Variability
Pattern Change: Presence of trend or unusual pattern
SPC is a basic tool to monitor variation in a process.
This is a special cause!!!

SPC has its uses because it is known that every process has known variation called Special Cause and
Common Cause variation. Special Cause variation is unnatural variability because of assignable
causes or pattern changes. SPC is a powerful tool to monitor and improve the variation of a process.
This powerful tool is often an aspect used in visual factories. If a supervisor or operator or staff is able
to quickly monitor how its process is operating by looking at the key inputs or outputs of the process, this
would exemplify a visual factory.
SPC is used to detect Special Causes in order to have those operating the process find and remove the
Special Cause. When a Special Cause has been detected, the process is considered to be out of
control.
SPC gives an ongoing look at the Process Capability. It is not a capability measurement but it is a visual
indication of the continued Process Capability of your process.
615

Elements of Control Charts
Use the Orders worksheet, column Avg. Orders Per Month 2.

Control Charts were first developed by Dr. Shewhart in the early 20th century in the U.S. Control
Charts are a graphical and visual plot of a process and is charted over time like a Time Series
Chart. From a visual management aspect, a Time Plot is more powerful than knowledge of the
last measurement. These charts are meant to indicate change in a process. All SPC charts have
a Central Line and Control Limits to aid in Special Cause variation.
Notice, again, we never discussed showing or considering specifications. We are advising you to
never have specification limits on a Control Chart because of the confusion often generated.
Remember we want to control and maintain the process improvements made during your project.
These Control Charts and their limits are the Voice of the Process not the Voice of the Customer
which are the specification limits.
616

Understanding the Power of SPC
C o n tro l C h a rts in d ica te w h e n a p ro ce s s is o u t o f co n tro l o r e x h ib itin g s p ecia l ca u s e
v a ria tio n b u t N O T w h y !
S P C ch a rts in co rp o ra te u p p e r a n d lo w e r co n tro l lim its .
Th e lim its a re ty p ica lly + / - 3 fro m th e ce n te rlin e .
Th e s e lim its rep re s e n t 9 9 .7 3 % o f n a tu ra l v a ria b ility fo r n o rm a l d is trib u tio n s .
S P C ch a rts a llo w w o rk e rs a n d s u p e rv is io n to m a in ta in im p ro v ed p r o ce s s p e rfo rm a n ce

fro m S ix S ig m a p ro je cts .
U s e o f S P C ch a rts ca n b e a p p lie d w ith a ll p ro ces s e s .
S e rv ice s , m a n u fa ctu rin g , a n d re ta il a re ju s t a few in d u s trie s w i th S P C

a p p lica tio n s .
C a u tio n m u s t b e ta k e n w ith u s e o f S P C fo r n o n -n o rm a l p ro ce s s es .
C o n tro l lim its d es crib e th e p ro ce s s v a ria b ility a n d a re u n re la te d to cu s to m e r

s p e cifica tio n s . (V o ice o f th e P ro ce s s in s tea d o f V o ice o f th e C u s to m e r)
A n u n d e s ira b le s itu a tio n is h a v in g co n tro l lim its w id e r th a n cu s to m e r

s p e cifica tio n lim its . Th is w ill e x is t fo r p o o rly p e rfo rm in g p ro ces s es w ith a C p
le s s th a n 1 .0
M a n y S P C ch a rts e x is t a n d s e lectio n m u s t b e a p p ro p ria te fo r e ffe ctiv e n e s s .
The Control Chart Cookbook
General Steps for Constructing Control Charts

1.
Select characteristic (critical X or CTQ) to be charted.
2.
Determine the purpose of the chart.
3.
Select data-collection points.
4.
Establish the basis for sub-grouping (only for Y s).
5.
Select the type of Control Chart.
6.
Determine the measurement method/criteria.
7.
Establish the sampling interval/frequency.
8.
Determine the sample size.
9.
Establish the basis of calculating the Control Limits.
10. Set up the forms or software for charting data.
Stirred or
Shaken?!
11. Set up the forms or software for collecting data.

12. Prepare written instructions for all phases.
13. Conduct the necessary training.
617

Focus of Six Sigma and the Use of SPC
This concept should be very familiar
to you by now. If we understand
the variation caused by the Xs,
then we should be monitoring with
SPC the Xs first.
By this time in the methodology you
should clearly understand the
concept of Y=f(x). Using SPC we
are attempting to control the Critical
Xs in order to control the Y.
Y = F(x )
To g et results, should we focus our behavior on the Y or X?
Y
Dependent
O utput
Effect
S ymptom
Monitor
X 1 . . . X N
Independent
Input
C ause
Problem
C ontrol
If we find the vital few Xs, first consider using S PC

on the Xs to achieve a desired Y ?
Control Chart Anatomy

Statistical Process Control (SPC)
involves the use of statistical
techniques, to interpret data, to control
the variation in processes. SPC is used
primarily to act on out of control
processes, but it is also used to monitor
the consistency of processes producing
products and services.
A primary SPC tool is the Control Chart
- a graphical representation for specific
quantitative measurements of a
process input or output. In the Control
Chart, these quantitative
measurements are compared to
decision rules calculated based on
probabilities from the actual measurement of process performance.
The comparison between the decision rules and the performance data detects any unusual variation
in the process that could indicate a problem with the process. Several different descriptive statistics
can be used in Control Charts. In addition, there are several different types of Control Charts that
can test for different causes, such as how quickly major vs. minor shifts in process averages are
detected.
Control Charts are Time Series Charts of all the data points with one addition. The Standard
Deviation for the data is calculated for the data and two additional lines are added. These lines are
placed +/- 3 Standard Deviations away from the Mean and are called the Upper Control Limit (UCL)
and the Lower Control Limit (LCL). Now the chart has three zones: (1) The zone between the UCL
and the LCL which called the zone of Common Cause variation, (2) The zone above the UCL which a
zone of Special Cause variation and (3) another zone of Special Cause variation below the LCL.
Control Charts graphically highlight data points that do not fit the normal level of expected variation.
This is mathematically defined as being more than +/- 3 Standard Deviations from the Mean. Its all
based off probabilities. We will now demonstrate how this is determined.
618

Control and Out of Control
Control Charts provide you with two basic functions; one is to provide time based information on the
performance of the process which makes it possible to track events affecting the process and the
second is to alert you when Special Cause variation occurs. Control Charts graphically highlight data
points that do not fit the normal level of variation expected. It is standard that the Common Cause
variation level is defined as +/- 3 Standard Deviations from the Mean. This is also know as the UCL
and LCL respectively.
Recall the area under the curve discussion in the lesson on Basic Statistics, remembering that +/one Standard Deviation represented 68% of the distribution, +/- 2 was 95% and +/- 3 was 99.7%.
You also learned from a probability perspective that you would expect the output of a process would
have a 99.7% chance of being between +/- 3 Standard Deviations. You also learned that sum of all
probability must equal 100%. There is only a 0.3% chance (100% - 99.7%) that a data point be
beyond +/- 3 Standard Deviations. In fact, since we are talking about two zones; one zone above the
+ 3 Standard Deviations and one below it. We have to split 0.3% in two, meaning that there is only a
0.15% chance of being in one of the zones.
There is only a .0015 (.15%) probability that a data point will either be above or below the UCL or
LCL. That is a very small probability as compared to .997 (99.75%) probability the data point will be
between the UCL and the LCL. What this means is there must have been something special happen
to cause a data point to be that far from the Mean, like a change in vendor, a mistake, etc. This is
why the term the term Special Cause or assignable cause variation applies. The probability that a
data point was this far from the rest of the population is so low that something special or assignable
happened. Outliers are just that, they have a low probability of occurring, meaning we have lost
control of our process. This simple, quantitative approach using probability is the essence of all
Control Charts.
619

Size of Subgroups
Typical subg roup siz es are 3 -1 2 for variable data:
If difficulty of g athering sample or expense of testing exists, the siz e, n, is
smaller
3 , 5 , and 1 0 are the most common siz e of subg roups because of ea se of
calculations when SPC is done without computers.
Siz e of subg roups aid in detection of shifts of mean indicating special cause
exists. The larg er the subg roup siz e, the g reater chance of detecting a special
cause. Subg roup siz e for A ttribute Data is often 5 0 2 0 0 .
Lot 1
Lot 5
Lot 3
Lot 2
Lot 4
Short-term studies
Long-term study
The Impact of Variation

Remember the Control
Limits are based on your
PAST data and depending
on what sources of
variation you have
included in your
subgroups, the control
limits which detect the
Special Cause variation
will be affected. You really
want to have subgroups
with only Common Cause
variation so if other
sources of variation are
detected, the sources will
be easily found instead of
buried within your
definition of subgroups.
Sources of Variation
- Natural Process Variation
as defined by subgroup
selection

- Different Operators

- Different Operators
- Supplier Source
-UCL
-LCL
First, select a spread to

declare as the Natural
Process Variation so that
whenever any point lands
outside these Control
Limits an alarm will sound
So, when a second

source of variation
appears, we will know!
And, of course, if two additional

sources of variation arrive, we will
detect that, too!
If you base your limits on all three sources of variation, what will sound the alarm?
Lets consider if you were tracking delivery times for quotes on new business with an SPC chart. If
you decided to not include averaging across product categories, you might find product categories
are assignable causes but you might not find them as Special Causes since you have included
them in the subgroups as part of your rationalization.
You really want to have subgroups with only Common Cause variation so if other sources of
variation are detected, the sources will be easily found instead of buried within your definition of
subgroups.
620

Frequency of Sampling
Sampling Frequency is a balance between cost of sampling and testing versus cost of not detecting
shifts in mean or variation.
Process knowledge is an input to frequency of samples after the subgroup size has been decided.
- If a process shifts but cannot be detected because of too infrequent sampling, the
customer suffers
- If choice is given of large subgroup samples infrequently or smaller subgroups
more frequently, most choose to get information more frequently.
- In some processes, with automated sampling and testing frequent sampling is
easy.
If undecided as to sample frequency, sample more frequently to confirm detection of process shifts
and reduce frequency if process variation is still detectable.
A rule of thumb also states sample a process at least 10X more frequent than the frequency of out
of control conditions.
Sometimes it can be a struggle how often to sample your process when monitoring results. Unless
the measurement is automated, inexpensive and recorded with computers and able to be charted
with SPC software without operator involvement, then frequency of sampling is an issue.
Lets reemphasize some points. First, you do NOT want to under sample and not have the ability to
find Special Cause variation easily. Second, do not be afraid to sample more frequently and then
reduce the frequency if it is clear Special Causes are found frequently.
621

SPC Selection Process
The Control Charts you
choose to use will
always be based first
on the type of data you
have and then on the
objective of the Control
Chart. The first
selection criteria will be
whether you have
Attribute or Continuous
Data.
C h o o s e A p p ro p ria te
C o n tro l C h a rt
type
of data
ATTRIBUTE
DEFECTS
type of
attribute
data
CONTINUOUS
subgroup
size
DEFECTIVES
Sample size 1
type
of defect
CONSTANT
type of
subgroups
VARIABLE
CONSTANT
I MR
Chart
2-5
10+
XR
Chart
XS
Chart
VARIABLE
Individuals
Mean &
Mean &
Continuous SPC refers
& Moving
Range
Std. Dev.
Range
to Control Charts that
NP
SPECIAL CASES
C Chart
U Chart
P Chart
display process input
Chart
or output
Number of
Incidences
Number of
Proportion
Incidences
per Unit
Defectives
Defectives
CumSum
EWMA
characteristics based
Chart
Chart
on Continuous Data Cumulative
Exponentially
data where decimal
Sum
Weighted Moving
Average
subdivisions have
meaning. When these Control Charts are used to control the Critical X input characteristic it is called
Statistical Process Control (SPC). These charts can also be used to monitor the CTQs, the important
process outputs. When this is done it is referred to as Statistical Process Monitoring (SPM).
There are two categories of Control Charts for Continuous Data: charts for controlling the process
average and charts for controlling the process variation. Generally, the two categories are combined.
The principal types of Control Charts used in Six Sigma are: charts for Individual Values and Moving
Ranges (I-MR), charts for Averages and Ranges (XBar-R), charts for Averages and Standard
Deviations (XBar-S) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average charts (EWMA).
Although it is preferable to monitor and control products, services and supporting processes with
Continuous Data, there will be times when Continuous Data is not available or there is a need to
measure and control processes with higher level metrics, such as defects per unit. There are many
examples where process measurements are in the form of Attribute Data. Fortunately, there are
control tools that can be used to monitor these characteristics and to control the critical process inputs
and outputs that are measured with Attribute Data.
Attribute Data, also called discrete data, reflects only one of two conditions: conforming or
nonconforming, pass or fail, go or no go. Four principal types of Control Charts are used to monitor
and control characteristics measured in Attribute Data: the p (proportion nonconforming), np (number
nonconforming), c (number of non-conformities), and u (non-conformities per unit) charts. Four
principle types of Control Charts are used to monitor and control characteristics measured in Discrete
Data: the p (proportion nonconforming), np (number nonconforming), c (number of non-conformities),
and u (non-conformities per unit) charts. These charts are an aid for decision making. With Control
Limits, they can help us filter out the probable noise by adequately reflecting the Voice of the Process.
A defective is defined as an entire unit, whether it be a product or service, that fails to meet
acceptance criteria, regardless of the number of defects in the unit. A defect is defined as the failure to
meet any one of the many acceptance criteria. Any unit with at least one defect may be considered to
be a defective. Sometimes more than one defect is allowed, up to some maximum number, before the
product is considered to be defective.
622

Chart Selection Process
SigmaXL includes a Control Chart Selection Tool to simplify the selection process.
Notes
623

Understanding Variable Control Chart Selection
Ty p e o f C h a rt
W h e n d o y o u n e e d it?
A v e ra g e &
u P ro d u ctio n is h ig h er v o lu m e ; a llo w s p ro ce s s m e a n a n d v a ria b ility
R a n g e o r S
to b e v ie w e d a n d a s s e s s e d to g e th e r; m o re s a m p lin g th a n w ith
(X B a r a n d R o r
In d iv id u a ls ch a rt (I) a n d M o v in g R a n g e ch a rts (M R ) b u t w h en
X B a r a n d S )
s u b g ro u p s a re d e s ire d . O u tliers ca n ca u s e is s u e s w ith R a n g e (R )
ch a rts s o S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n ch a rts (S ) u s e d in s te a d if co n ce rn e d .
M o s t co m m o n
In d iv id u a l a n d
M o v in g R a n g e
P re -C o n tro l
u P ro d u ctio n is lo w v o lu m e o r cy cle tim e to b u ild p ro d u ct is lo n g o r
h o m o g e n eo u s s a m p le re p re s e n ts e n tire p ro d u ct (b a tch e tc.);

s a m p lin g a n d te s tin g is co s tly s o s u b g ro u p s a re n o t d e s ire d .
C o n tro l lim its a re w id e r th a n X B a r ch a rts . U s e d fo r S P C o n m o s t
in p u ts .
u S e t-u p is critica l, o r co s t o f s e tu p s cra p is h ig h . U s e fo r o u tp u ts
Ex p o n e n tia lly
u S m a ll s h ift n e ed s to b e d e te cte d , o ften b e ca u s e o f a u to co rre la ti o n
W e ig h te d
o f th e o u tp u t res u lts . U s e d o n ly fo r in d iv id u a ls o r a v era g e s o f
M o v in g A v e ra g e
O u tp u ts . In freq u e n tly u s e d b e ca u s e o f ca lcu la tio n co m p le x ity .
C u m u la tiv e S u m u S a m e re a s o n s a s EW M A (Ex p o n en tia lly W e ig h te d M o v in g R a n g e )
e x ce p t th e p a s t d a ta is a s im p o rta n t a s p re s e n t d a ta .
Le s s C o m m o n
Understanding Attribute Control Chart Selection
Ty p e o f C h a r t
P
nP
W h e n d o y o u n e e d it?
u N e e d to tra ck th e fra ctio n o f d e fe ctiv e
u n its ; s a m p le s iz e is v a r ia b le a n d u s u a lly > 5 0
u W h e n y o u w a n t to tra ck th e n u m b e r o f d e fe ctiv e
u n its p e r s u b g ro u p ; s a m p le s iz e is u s u a lly
co n s ta n t a n d u s u a lly > 5 0
u W h e n y o u w a n t to tra ck th e n u m b e r o f d e fe cts
u W h e n y o u w a n t to tra ck th e n u m b e r o f
p e r s u b g r o u p o f u n its p ro d u ce d ; s a m p le s iz e is
co n s ta n t
d e fe cts p e r u n it; s a m p le s iz e is v a r ia b le
The P Chart is the most common type of chart in understanding Attribute Control Charts.
624

Detection of Assignable Causes or Patterns
C o n tro l C h a rts in d ica te s p e cia l ca u s e s b e in g e ith er a s s ig n a b le c a u s e s o r p a tte rn s .

Th e fo llo w in g ru le s a re a p p lica b le fo r b o th v a ria b le a n d A ttrib u te D a ta to d ete ct
s p e cia l ca u s es .
Th e s e fo u r ru le s a re th e o n ly a p p lica b le tes ts fo r R a n g e (R ), M o v in g R a n g e (MR ), o r
S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n (S ) ch a rts .
O n e p o in t m o re th a n 3 S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n s fro m th e ce n te r lin e .
6 p o in ts in a ro w a ll e ith e r in cre a s in g o r a ll d ecre a s in g .
1 4 p o in ts in a ro w a lte rn a tin g u p a n d d o w n .
9 p o in ts in a ro w o n th e s a m e s id e o f th e ce n te r lin e .
Th e s e re m a in in g fo u r ru le s a re o n ly fo r v a ria b le d a ta to d e tect s p e cia l ca u s e s .
2 o u t o f 3 p o in ts g re a te r th a n 2 S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n s fro m th e ce n te r lin e o n th e

s a m e s id e .
4 o u t o f 5 p o in ts g re a te r th a n 1 S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n fro m th e ce n te r lin e o n th e

s a m e s id e .
1 5 p o in ts in a ro w a ll w ith in o n e S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n o f e ith e r s id e o f th e ce n te r

lin e .
8 p o in ts in a ro w a ll g re a te r th a n o n e S ta n d a rd D e v ia tio n o f e ith e r s id e o f th e
ce n te r lin e .
Remember Control Charts are used to monitor a process performance and to detect Special
Causes due to assignable causes or patterns. The standardized rules of your organization may
have some of the numbers slightly differing. For example, some organizations have 7 or 8 points
in a row on the same side of the Center Line. We will soon show you how to find what your
SigmaXL version has for defaults for the Special Cause tests.
There are typically 8 available tests for detecting Special Cause variation. Only 4 of the 8 Special
Cause tests can only be used Range, Moving Range or Standard Deviation charts which are used
to monitor within variation. Note, SigmaXL V6 does not include tests for special causes on the
Range, Moving Range or Standard Deviation charts.
If you are unsure of what is meant by these specific rule definitions, do not worry. The next few
slides will specifically explain how to interpret these rules.
625

Recommended Special Cause Detection Rules
If implementing SPC manually without software initially, the most visually obvious violations are
more easily detected. SPC on manually filled charts are common place for initial use of defect
prevention techniques.
These 3 rules are v is u a lly the most easily detected by personnel.
O ne point more than 3 Standard Deviations from the center line.
6 points in a row all either increasing or all decreasing .
1 5 points in a row all within one Standard Deviation of either side of the center line.
Dr. Shewhart that worked with the W estern Electric C o. was credited with the following 4 rules
referred to as W estern Electric Rules.
O ne point more than 3 Standard Deviations from the center line.
8 points in a row on the same side of the center line.
2 out of 3 points g reater than 2 Standard Deviations from the center line on the same side.
4 out of 5 points g reater than 1 Standard Deviation from the center line on the same side.
Y ou mig ht notice the W estern Electric rules vary slig htly. The importance is to be consistent in
your org aniz ation and decide what rules you will use to detect special causes.
VERY few org aniz ations use all 8 rules for detecting special causes.
Special Cause Rule Default in SigmaXL
When a Belt is using SigmaXL, the default tests can be set when running SPC on the variable or
Attribute Data. A Belt can always change which tests are selected.
626

Special Cause Test Examples
As promised, we will now closely review the definition of the Special Cause tests. The first test is
one point more than 3 sigmas from the Center Line. The 3 sigma lines are added or subtracted
from the Center Line. The sigma estimation for the short-term variation will be shown later in this
module.
If only one point is above the upper 3 sigma line or below the lower 3 sigma line, then a Special
Cause is indicated. This does not mean you need to confirm if another point is also outside of the 3
sigma lines before action is to be taken. Dont forget the methodology of using SPC.
If you want to see the SigmaXL output on the left, execute the SigmaXL command Control
Charts > Tests for Special Causes Defaults. Remember, your numbers may vary in the slide
and those are set in the defaults as you were shown recently in this module. From now on, we will
assume your rules are the same as shown in this module. If not, just adjust the conclusions.
627

Special Cause Test Examples
The second test
for detecting
Special Causes
is nine points in
a row on the
same side of the
Center Line.
This literally
means if nine
consecutive
points are above
the Center Line,
then a Special
Cause is
detected that
would account
for a potential
Mean shift in the
process.
This rule would also be violated if nine consecutive points are below the Center Line. The amount
away from the Center Line does not matter as long as the consecutive points are all on the same
side of the Center Line.
The third test looking
for a Special Cause
is six points in a row
all increasing or all
decreasing. This
means if six
consecutive times,
the present point is
higher than the
previous point than
the rule has been
violated and the
process is out of
control. The rule is
also violated if for six
consecutive times
the present point is
lower than the
previous point on the SPC chart.
This rule obviously needs the time order when plotting on the SPC charts to be valid. Typically,
these charts plot increasing time from left to right with the most recent point on the right hand side
of the chart. Do not make the mistake of seeing six points in a line indicating an out of control
condition. Note on the example shown on the right, a straight line shows 7 points but it takes that
many in order to have six consecutive points increasing. This rule would be violated no matter
what zone the points occur.
628

Special Cause Test Examples (cont.)
The fourth rule
for a Special
Cause indication
is fourteen points
in a row
alternating up
and down. In
other words, if
the first point
increased from
the last point and
the second point
decreased from
the first point and
the third point
increased from
the second point
and so on for
fourteen points,
then the process is considered out of control or a Special Cause is indicated. This rule does not
depend on the points being in any particular zone of the chart. Also note the process is not
considered to be out of control until after the 14th point has followed the alternating up and down
pattern.
The fifth Special Cause

test looks for 2 out of 3
consecutive points more
than 2 sigma away from
the Center Line on the
same side. The 2 sigma
line is obviously 2/3 of
the distance from the
Center Line as the 3
sigma line. Please note
it is not required that the
points more than 2
sigma away be in
consecutive order, they
just have to be within a
group of 3 consecutive
points. Notice the
example shown on the right does NOT have 2 consecutive points 2 sigma away from the Center
Line but 2 out of the 3 consecutive are more than 2 sigma away. Notice this rule is not violated if
the 2 points that are more than 2 sigma but NOT on the same side.
Have you noticed that SigmaXL will automatically place a number by the point that violates the
Special Cause rule and that number tells you which of the Special Cause tests has been violated.
In this example shown on the right, the Special Cause rule was violated two times.
629

Special Cause Test Examples (cont.)
The sixth Special Cause
test looks for any four out of
five points more than one
sigma from the Center Line
all on the same side. Only
the 4 points that were more
than one sigma need to be
on the same side. If four of
the five consecutive points
are more than one sigma
from the Center Line and on
the same side, do NOT
make the wrong assumption
that the rule would not be
violated if one of the four
points was actually more
than 2 sigma from the
Center Line.
The seventh Special Cause
test looks for 15 points in a
row all within one sigma
from the Center Line. You
might think this is a good
thing and it certainly is.
However, a you might want
to find the Special Cause
for this reduced variation so
the improvement can be
sustained in the future.
The eighth and final test
for Special Cause
detection is having eight
points in a row all more
than one sigma from the
Center Line. The eight
consecutive points can be
any number of sigma
away from the Center
Line. Do NOT make the
wrong assumption this rule
would not be violated if
some of the points were
more than 2 sigma away
from the Center Line. If
you reread the rule, it just
states the points must be
more than one sigma from
the Center Line.
630

SPC Center Line and Control Limit Calculations
This is a reference in case you really want to get into the nitty-gritty. The formulas shown here are
the basis for Control Charts.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e In d iv id u a l a n d M R C o n tro l C h a rts
w ith th e fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
X=
Where:
Xbar:
Xi:
k:
Ri :
C o n tro l Lim its
MR =
i =1
UCL x = X + E 2 MR
LCL x = X E 2 MR
UCL MR = D 4 MR
LCL MR = D 3 MR
>
Average of the individuals, becomes the centerline on the Individuals chart

Individual data points
Number of individual data points
Moving range between individuals, generally calculated using the difference between
each successive pair of readings
MRbar: The average moving range, the centerline on the range chart
UCLX:
Upper control limit on individuals chart
LCLX:
Lower control limit on individuals chart
UCLMR: Upper control limit on moving range
LCLMR : Lower control limit on moving range (does not apply for sample sizes below 7)
E2, D3, D4: Constants that vary according to the sample size used in obtaining the moving range
(st. dev. Estimate) =
M R b a r (co m p u te d a b o v e )
d2
(ta b le o f co n s ta n ts fo r s u b g ro u p s iz e n )
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e X B a r a n d R C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e

fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
X=
x
i =1
C o n tro l Lim its

k
R =
R
i
UCL x = X + A 2 R
LCL x = X A 2 R
UCL R = D 4 R
LCL R = D 3 R
>
k
Where: k
Xi:
Average of the subgroup averages, it becomes the centerline of the control chart
Xi:
Average of each subgroup
k:
Number of subgroups
Ri :
Range of each subgroup (Maximum observation Minimum observation)
Rbar:
The average range of the subgroups, the centerline on the range chart
UCLX: Upper control limit on average chart
LCLX: Lower control limit on average chart
UCLR: Upper control limit on range chart
LCLR : Lower control limit range chart
A2, D3, D4: Constants that vary according to the subgroup sample size
R b a r (co m p u te d a b o v e )
d2
(ta b le o f co n s ta n ts fo r s u b g ro u p s iz e n )
631

SPC Center Line and Control Limit Calculations (cont.)
Yet another reference just in case anyone wants to do this stuff manuallyhave fun!!!!
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e X B a r a n d S C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e
fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
X=
C o n tro l Lim its

k
x
i =1
S=
i =1
UCL x = X + A 3 S
LCL x = X A 3 S
UCLS = B4 S
LCLS = B3 S
>
Where:
Xi:
Average of the subgroup averages, it becomes the centerline of the control chart
Xi:
Average of each subgroup
k:
Number of subgroups
si :
Standard deviation of each subgroup
Sbar:
The average s. d. of the subgroups, the centerline on the S chart
UCLX: Upper control limit on average chart
LCLX: Lower control limit on average chart
UCLS: Upper control limit on S chart
LCLS : Lower control limit S chart
A3, B3, B4: Constants that vary according to the subgroup sample size
S b a r (co m p u te d a b o v e )
c4 (ta b le o f co n s ta n ts fo r s u b g ro u p s iz e n )
We are now moving to the formula summaries for the Attribute SPC Charts. These formulas are fairly
basic. The upper and lower Control Limits are equidistant from the Mean % defective unless you
reach a natural limit of 100 or 0%. Remember the p Chart is for tracking the proportion or %
defective.
These formulas are a bit more elementary because they are for Attribute Control Charts. Recall p
Charts track the proportion or % defective.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e P C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e fo llo w in g :
C o n tro l Lim its
C e n te rlin e
p=
Total number of defective items

Total number of items inspected
Where:
p:
ni:
LCLp:
UCLp:
p (1 p )
ni
p (1 p )
LCL p = p 3
ni
UCL p = p + 3
Average proportion defective (0.0 1.0)

Number inspected in each subgroup
Lower control limit on p chart
Upper control limit on p chart
S ince the C ontrol Limits are a function of

sample siz e, they will vary for each sample.
632

The nP Charts formulas resemble the P Chart. This chart tracks the number of defective items in a
subgroup.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e n P C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e

fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
np =
Total number of defective items

Total number of subgroups
C o n tro l Lim its

UCL np = n i p + 3 ni p(1 p)
LCL np = n i p 3 n i p(1 - p)
Where:
np:
ni:
LCLnp:
UCLnp:
Average number defective items per subgroup

Lower control limit on nP chart
Upper control limit on nP chart
S ince the C ontrol Limits A N D C enter Line are a function

of sample siz e, they will vary for each sample.
The U Chart is also basic in construction and is used to monitor the number of defects per unit.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e U C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e

fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
u=
Total number of defects Identified

Total number of Units Inspected
Where:
u:
ni:
LCLu:
UCLu:
C o n tro l Lim its

UCL u = u + 3
u
ni
LCL u = u 3
u
ni
Total number of defects divided by the total number of units inspected.

Lower control limit on u chart.
Upper control limit on u chart.
S ince the C ontrol Limits are a function of sample

siz e, they will vary for each sample.
633

The C Control Charts are a nice way of monitoring the number of defects in sampled subgroups.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e C C o n tro l C h a rts w ith th e

fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
c=
C o n tro l Lim its
Total number of defects

Total number of subgroups
UCL c = c + 3 c
LCLc = c 3 c
W h e re :
c:
LCLc:
UCLc:
Total number of defects divided by the total number of subgroups.

Lower control limit on c chart.
Upper control limit on c chart.
This EWMA can be considered a smoothing monitoring system with Control Limits. This is rarely
used without computers or automated calculations. The items plotted are NOT the actual
measurements but the weighted measurements. The exponentially weighted moving average is
useful for considering past and historical data and is most commonly used for individual
measurements although has been used for averages of subgroups.
C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e ters o f th e EW M A C o n tro l C h a rts w ith

th e fo llo w in g :
C e n te rlin e
Zt = Xt + (1 ) Zt 1
W h e re :
Zt:
Zt-1:
:
:
Xt:
UCL:
LCL:
n:
C o n tro l Lim its

UCL = X + 3
(
)[1 (1 ) 2t ]
2
LCL = X 3
(
)[1 (1 ) 2t ]
n 2
EWMA statistic plotted on control chart at time t

EWMA statistic plotted on control chart at time t-1
The weighting factor between 0 and 1 suggest using 0.2
Standard deviation of historical data (pooled standard deviation for subgroups
MRbar/d2 for individual observations)
Individual data point or sample averages at time t
Upper control limit on EWMA chart
Lower control limit on EWMA chart
Subgroup sample size
634

C a lcu la te th e p a ra m e te rs o f th e C U S U M C o n tro l C h a rts w ith

M IN ITA B TM o r o th e r p ro g ra m s in ce th e ca lcu la tio n s a re e v e n
m o re co m p lica te d th a n th e EW M A ch a rts .
B e ca u s e o f th is co m p le x ity o f fo rm u la s , e x e cu tio n o f e ith e r
th is o r th e EW M A a re n o t d o n e w ith o u t a u to m a tio n a n d
co m p u te r a s s is ta n ce .
any body
a l aptop?
Ah, Ah,
anybody
got gaot laptop?!
The CUSUM is an even more difficult technique to handle with manual calculations. We arent even
showing the math behind this rarely used chart. Following the Control Chart selection route shown
earlier, we remember the CUSUM is used when historical information is as important as present data.
Note, SigmaXL V6 does not include CUSUM.
635

Pre-Control Charts
P r e -C o n tr o l C h a r ts use limits relative to the specification limits. This is the first
and O N LY chart you will see specification limits plotted for sta tistical process
control. This is the most basic type of cha rt and unsophisticated use of process
control.
0.0
RED
0.25
Yellow
LSL
0.5
0.75 1.0
GREEN
Yellow
Target
R e d Z o n e s . Z one outside the

specification limits. Sig nals the
process is out-o f-c ontrol and
should be stopped
Red
USL
Y e llo w Z o n e s . Z one between

the PC Lines and the
specification limits, indicates
caution and the need to watch
the process closely
G re e n Z o n e . Z one lies
between the PC Lines, sig nals the
process is in control
The Pre-Control Charts are often used for startups with high scrap cost or low production volumes
between setups. Pre-Control Charts are like a stoplight are the easiest type of SPC to use by
operators or staff. Remember Pre-Control Charts are to be used ONLY for outputs of a process.
Another approach to using Pre-Control Charts is to use Process Capability to set the limits where
yellow and red meet. SigmaXL does not include Pre-Control.
Process Setup and Restart with Pre-Control
Q u a lify in g P r o ce s s
To qualify a process, five consecutive parts must fall within the g reen z one
The process should be qualified after tool cha ng es, adjustments, new
operators, material cha ng es, etc
M o n ito r in g O n g o in g P r o ce s s
Sample two consecutive parts at predetermined frequency
If either part is in the red, stop production and find reason for variation
W hen one part falls in the yellow z one inspect the other and
If the second part falls in the g reen z one then continue
If the second part falls in the yellow z one on the same side, ma ke an
adjustment to the process
If second part falls in the yellow z one on the opposite side or in the
red z one, the process is out of control and should be stopped
If any part falls outside the specification limits or in the red z one, the
process is out of control and should be stopped
636

Responding to Out of Control Indications
SPC is an exciting
SPC power is to react to the Out of Control (OOC) indications
tool but we must
with an Out of Control Action Plan (OCAP).
not get enamored
with it. The power
of SPC is not to
Individual SPC chart for Response Time
find the Center Line
VIOLATION:
40
UCL=39.76
and Control Limits
Special Cause is
but to react to out
30
indicated
of control
_
20
indications with an
X=18.38
out of control action
OCAP
10
plan. SPC for
If response time is too
effectiveness at
0
high, get additional
LCL=-3.01
controlling and
person on phone bank
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
reducing long-term
Observation
variation is to
respond
Requires immediate response to Special Cause.
immediately to out
of control or
No reaction while process is within limits!
Special Cause
indications.
SPC can be actually harmful if those operating the process respond to process variation with
suboptimizing. A basic rule of SPC is if it is not out of control as indicated by the rules, then do not
make any adjustments. There are studies where an operator that responds to off center
measurements will actually produce worse variation than a process not altered at all. Remember,
being off the Center Line is NOT a sign of out of control because Common Cause variation exists.
Individual Value
Training is required to use and interpret the charts not to mention training for you as a Belt to properly
create an SPC chart.
Attribute SPC Example
637

Attribute SPC Example (cont.)
638

Now we must see if the next few weeks are showing Special Cause from the results. The sample
size remained at 250 and the defective checks were 61, 64, 77.
No Special Causes were detected.

Average % defective = 20.380%
UCL = 28.0%
LCL = 12.7%
639

The chart has now been updated to include the new points.
640

Because of the Special Cause, the process must refer to the OCAP or Out of Control Action Plan
that states what Root Causes need to be investigated and what actions are taken to get the
process back in Control. After the corrective actions were taken, wait until the next sample is taken
to see if the process has changed to not show Special Cause actions. If still out of control, refer to
the OCAP and take further action to improve the process. However, DO NOT make any more
changes if the process shows back in control after the next reading. Also, even if the next reading
seems higher than the Center Line dont cause more variability. If process changes are
documented after this project was closed, the Control Limits should be recalculated as in step 9 of
the SPC methodology.
Special Cause
Activate
OCAP
Lets walk through another example of using SPC within SigmaXL but in this case it will be
with Continuous Data. Open the worksheet called hole diameter and select the appropriate
type of Control Chart and calculate the Center Line and Control Limits.
Lets try another one, this time variable
641

The example has Continuous Data, subgroups and we have no interest in small changes in this
small process output. The Xbar R Chart is selected because we are uninterested in the Xbar S
Chart for this example.
642

643

Note: The Mean, UCL and LCL are unchanged when SigmaXLs Add Data button is used.
644

645

SPC Chart Option in SigmaXL for Levels
646

Describe the elements of an SPC chart and the purposes of
SPC
Understand how SPC ranks in defect prevention
Describe the 13 Step route or methodology of implementing a
chart
Design subgroups if needed for SPC usage
Determine the frequency of sampling
Understand the Control Chart selection methodology
Be familiar with Control Chart parameter calculations such as
UCL, LCL and the Center Line
You have now completed Control Phase Statistical Process Control.
Notes
647
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
Six Sigma Control Plans
Now we are going to continue in the Control Phase with Six Sigma Control Plans.
648

Overview
The last physical result
of the Control Phase is
the Control Plan. This
module will discuss a
technique to selection
various solutions you
might want from all of
your defect reduction
techniques found
earlier in this phase.
We will also discuss
elements of a Control
Plan to aid you and
your organization to
sustain your projects
results.
We will examine the
meaning of each of
these and show you
how to apply them.
W
W eelco
lcom
m ee to
to CCoonntro
troll
AA ddvvaa nnce
cedd Ex
Ex ppeerim
rim eennts
ts
AA ddvvaa nnce
ility
Le
Leaa nn CCoonntro
trols
ls
DDeefe
fect
ct CCoonntro
trols
ls
SSta
ta tis
tistica
tica l l PPro
roce
cessss CCoonntro
trol l
(S
(SPPCC))
SSix
ix SSig
ig m
m aa CCoonntro
trol l PPla
la nnss
W
W ra
ra pp U
Upp &
& AA ctio
ctionn Ite
Item
m ss
Solution Selection
Solution Selection
CC ontrol Plan Elements
ontrol Plan Elements
End of Control: Your Objectives
We have discussed all of the tools to improve and sustain your project success. However, you might have
many options or too many options to implement final monitoring or controls. This module will aid you in
defect reduction selection.
Another objective of this module is to understand the elements of a good Control Plan needed to sustain
your gains.
649

Selecting Solutions
Selecting improvements to implement:

Hig h-level objective evaluation of all potential improvements
Impact of each improvement
C ost to implement each improvement
Time to implement each improvement
Balance desire with quantifiable evaluation
Eng ineering always wants the g old standard
Sales always wants inventory
Production always wants more capacity
The tool for selecting defect prevention methods is unnecessary for just a
few chang es to the process.
Many projects with smaller scopes have few, but vital control
methods put into the process.
Selecting solutions comes down to a business decision. The impact, cost and timeliness of the
improvement are all important. These improvement possibilities must be balanced against the
business needs. A cost benefit analysis is always a good tool to use to assist in determining the
priorities.
Recall us talking about the progression of a Six Sigma project? Practical Problem Statistical
Problem Statistical Solution Practical Solution. Consider the Practical Solutions from a
business decision point of view.
Impact Considerations
Now thats IMPACT!!

650

Cost Considerations
Its all about the cash!!
Time Considerations
The clocks ticking!
651

Improvement Selection Matrix
This should
resemble the X-Y
Matrix. This tool is
of no use if you
have one or two
improvement
efforts to consider.
The outputs listed
above in most
cases resemble
those of your
original X-Y Matrix
but you might have
another business
output added.
The significance rating is the relative ranking of outputs. If one output is rated a 10 and it is twice the
importance of a second output, the rating for the second output would be a 5. The improvements, usually
impacting the Xs, are listed and the relative impact of each item on the left is rated against its impact to
the output. The overall impact rating for one improvement is the sum of the individual impact ratings
multiplied by their respective significant rating of the output impacted. Items on the left having more
impacts on multiple outputs will have a higher overall impact rating. The cost and timing ratings are
multiplied against the overall impact rating.
The improvements listed with the highest overall ratings are the first to get consideration. The range of
impact ratings can be zero to seven. An impact of zero means no impact. The cost and timing ratings are
rated zero to seven. With zero being prohibitive in the cost or timing category.
652

Improvement Selection Matrix Project Outputs
Primary and Secondary Metrics of your Project.

List each of the Y s across the horiz ontal axis
Rate the importance of the process Y s on a scale of 1 to 1 0
1 is not very important, 1 0 is critical
The Sig nificance ranking s must match your updated X-Y Matrix
ranking s
Improvement Selection Matrix
Just like when using
the FMEA, your
ratings may vary for
the three Selection
Matrix categories.
Feel free to use
whatever objective
ratings you desire.
These are some
general guideline
ratings, customize
them to meet your
business, just try to
standardize whatever
criteria you choose.
The recommended
cost ratings from zero
to seven are here. In
many companies,
expenditures that are
not capitalized usually
are desired because
they are smaller and
are merely expensed.
Your business may
have different
strategies or need of
cash so consider your
business situation.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Cost to Implement Ratings

Improvement Costs are minimal with upfront and ongoing
expenses.
Improvement Costs are low and can be expensed with no capital
authorization and recurring expenses are low.
Improvement Costs are low and can be expensed with no capital
authorization and recurring expenses are higher.
Medium capital priority because of relative ranking of return on
investment.
Low capital priority because of relative ranking of return on
investment.
High capital and ongoing expenses make a low priority for capital
investment.
High capital and/or expenses without acceptable return on
investment.
Significant capital and ongoing expenses without alignment with
business priorities.
653

Improvement Selection Matrix (cont.)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Time to Implement Ratings

Less than a week to get in place and workable.
7 - 14 days to get in place and workable.
2 - 8 weeks to get the improvement in place and workable.
2 - 3 months to get the improvement in place and workable.
Over a year to get the improvement in place and workable. All
above times include time for approvals process.
These time ratings are ranked from zero to seven. You might wonder why something that would
take a year or more we suggest gets a zero rating suggesting the improvement not be considered.
Many businesses have cycle times of products less than a year so improvements that long are ill
considered.
Mgmt visits/leaves ph #
Replace old coffee makers/coffee
Menus provided with nutrition info
Comp. gen. "quiet time" scheduled
Dietician approves menus
Food choices include

"healthy choices"
Hotel staff monitors room
Plenty of bottled water

available
Coffee is hot and rich

tasting
Significance Rating
Potential Improvements
Outside noises do not

interfer with speakers
Example of Completed Solution Selection Matrix
10
Impact
Rating
2
2
0
0
6
0
9
Impact
Rating
2
0
7
0
0
0
8
Impact
Rating
6
4
0
0
0
0
9
Impact
Rating
0
0
0
4
0
7
OVERALL
IMPACT
RATING
COST
RATING
TIME
RATING
OVERALL
RATING
86
52
63
36
60
63
7
7
3
5
3
5
7
7
6
5
3
2
4214
2548
1134
900
540
630
Im p r o v e m e n t S e le ctio n M a tr ix O u tp u t
Improvements with the hig her overall rating should be g iven first priority.
Keep in mind that long time frame capital investments, etc. should have
parallel efforts to keep delays from further occurring .
This is just an example of a completed Selection Matrix. Remember that a cost or time rating of
zero would eliminate the improvement from consideration by your project. Remember your ratings
of the solutions should involved your whole team to get their knowledge and understanding of final
priorities.
Again, higher overall ratings are the improvements to be considered. Do NOT forget about the
potential to run improvements in parallel. Running projects of complexity might need the experience
of a trained project manager. Often projects need to be managed with gantt charts or timelines
showing critical milestones.
654

Implementing Solutions in Your Organization
Implementation Plans should emphasiz e the need to:

O rg aniz e the tasks and resources
Establish realistic time frames and deadlines
Identify actions necessary to ensure success
C omponents of an Implementation Plan include:
W ork breakdown structure
Influence strateg y for priorities and resourcing
Risk manag ement plan
A udit results for completion and risks.
A ll solutions must be part of C ontrol Plan Document.
We We
havehave
a plan
dont
we?!
a plan
dont
we?
Once youve decided

defect reduction
solutions, you need to
plan those solutions. A
plan means more than
the proverbial back of
the envelope solution
and should include
timelines, critical
milestones, project
review dates and
specific actions noted
for success in your
solution
implementation. Many
people use Excel or MS
Project but many
options exist to plan
your project closing
with these future
sustaining plans.
What is a Control Plan?
A C o n tr o l P la n is :
W ritte n s u m m a ry d e s cr ib in g s y s te m s u s e d fo r m o n ito rin g / co n tr o lli n g

p ro ce s s o r p ro d u ct v a ria tio n
D o cu m e n t a llo w in g te a m to fo rm a lly d o cu m e n t a ll co n tr o l m e th o d s
u s e d to m e e t p ro je ct g o a l
Liv in g d o cu m e n t to b e u p d a te d a s n e w m e a s u re m e n t s y s te m s a n d
co n tr o l m e th o d s a re a d d e d fo r co n tin u o u s im p ro v e m e n t
O fte n u s e d to cre a te co n cis e o p e ra to r in s p e ctio n s h e e t
N O T a re p la ce m e n t o f in fo r m a tio n co n ta in e d in d e ta ile d o p e ra tin g ,
m a in te n a n ce , o r d e s ig n in s tr u ctio n s
ES S EN TIA L p o r tio n o f fin a l p r o je ct re p o rt
Fin a l p r o je cts a re o r g a n iz a tio n a lly d e p e n d e n t
In fo r m a l o r fo rm a l
File d a s p a rt o f p ro je ct tra ck in g m e ch a n is m fo r o rg a n iz a tio n
Tra ck b e n e fits
R e fe re n ce fo r u n s u s ta in e d r e s u lts
655

WHO Should Create a Control Plan
The team working on the project!!!!

A N Y O N E who has a role in defining , executing or chang ing the
process:
A ssociates
Technical Experts
Supervisors
Manag ers
Site Manag er
Human Resources
We ddid
We
id it!!
i t!!
WHY Do We Need a Control Plan?
Going for the distance, not the sprint!!
656

Control Plan Elements
The five elements
of a Control Plan
include the
documentation,
monitoring,
response, training
and aligning
systems and
structures.
Control Plan Information

Control Plans use
all of the
information from
the previous
phases of your
project and the
defect prevention
methods selected.
Control Plans may
not be exciting
because you are
not doing anything
new to the process
but stabilizing the
process in the
future with this
document.
Th e te a m d e v e lo p s th e C o n tro l P la n b y u tiliz in g a ll a v a ila b le

in fo rm a tio n fro m th e fo llo w in g :
R e s u lts fro m th e M e a s u re a n d A n a ly z e P h a s e s
Le s s o n s le a rn e d fro m s im ila r p ro d u cts a n d p ro ces s es
Te a m s k n o w le d g e o f th e p ro ces s
D es ig n FM EA s
D es ig n re v ie w s
D e fect P re v e n tio n M e th o d s s e le cte d
D o cu m e n ta tio n
P la n
R e s p o n s e P la n
A lig n in g
S y s te m s
& S tr u ctu r e s
M o n ito r in g
P la n
Tr a in in g
P la n
657

Training Plan
W h o / W h a t o rg a n iz a tio n s re q u ire tra in in g ?

Those impacted by the improvements
Tr a in in g
People who are involved in the process
P la n
impacted by the improvement
People who support the process impacted by
the improvement
Those impacted by the C ontrol Plan
Process owners/ manag ers
People who support the processes involved in the C ontrol Plan
People who will make chang es to the process in the future
W h o w ill co m p le te th e tr a in in g ?
Immediate training
The pla nning , development a nd execution is a
Tr a in in g
P la n
responsibility of the project tea m
Typica lly some of the tra ining is conducted by
the project tea m
Q ualified tra iners
Typica lly owned by a tra ining depa rtment or process owner
Those who a re responsible for conducting the on-g oing
tra ining must be identified
S pecific tra ining ma teria ls need developing .
PowerPoint, O n the Job checklist, Exercises, etc.
W hen will tra ining be conducted?

W ha t is the timeline to tra in everyone
on the new process(es)?
Tr a in in g
P la n
W ha t will trig g er ong oing tra ining ?

N ew employee orienta tion?
Refresher tra ining ?
Pa rt of the response pla n when monitoring shows
performa nce deg ra ding ?
658

Training Plan (cont.)
Tra in in g P la n O u tlin e
Tr a in in g
P la n
Training Module
Who Will Create

Modules
Schedule for
Training Modules Who Will be
Completion
Trained
Schedule for
Training
Trainer(s)
Integration into
Ongoing New
Employee
Training
Final Location of
Employee
Manuals
Documentation Plan
Documentation is necessary to ensure that what

has been learned from the project is shared and
institutionaliz ed:
Used to aid implementation of solutions
Used for on-g oing training
Documentation
Plan P la n
This is often the actual Final Report some org aniz ations use.
D o cu m e n ta tio n m u s t b e k e p t cu r r e n t to b e u s e fu l
659

Documentation Plan (cont.)
Ite m s to b e in clu d e d in th e D o cu m e n ta tio n P la n :

P ro ce s s d o cu m e n ta tio n
U p d a te d P ro ce s s M a p s / flo w ch a rts
P ro ce d u r e s (S O P s )
FM EA
P la n
C o n tro l P la n d o cu m e n ta tio n
Tra in in g m a n u a ls
M o n ito rin g p la n p ro ce s s m a n a g e m e n t ch a rts , r e p o rts ,
sops
R e s p o n s e p la n FM EA
S y s te m s a n d s tru ctu re s jo b d e s crip tio n s , p e rfo rm a n ce
m a n a g e m e n t o b je ctiv e s
A s s ig n in g re s p o n s ib ility fo r D o cu m e n ta tio n P la n :
Responsibility at implementation
Documentation
Plan
Black Belt ensures all documents are current
at hand off
Black Belt ensures there is a process to modify
documentation as the process chang es in place
Black Belt ensures there is a process in place to review
documentation on reg ular basis for currency/ accuracy
Responsibility for ong oing process (org aniz ationally based)
Plan must outline who is responsible for making
updates/ modifications to documentation as they occur
Plan must outline who is responsible to review documents
ensuring currency/ accuracy of documentation
660

Documentation Plan (cont.)
D o cu m e n ta tio n P la n O u tlin e
Document
Items
Necessary
Immediate
Responsibility
P la n
Update/
Review
Modification
Responsibility
Responsibility
Monitoring Plan
661

Monitoring Plan (cont.)
Knowledge Retention Tests When to Sample:
Monitoring
Plan
After training
Regular intervals
Random intervals (often in auditing sense)
How to Sample
How to Measure
I knew I should have

paid more attention!!
Statistical Process Control:

Control Charts
Monitoring
Plan
Posted in area where data collected

Plot data points real time
Act on Out of Control Response with guidelines from

the Out of Control Action Plan (OCAP).
Record actions taken to achieve in-control results.
Notes impacting performance on chart should be
encouraged
Establishing new limits
Based on signals that process performance has changed
662

Response Plan
FM EA is a g re a t to o l to u s e fo r th e M o n ito rin g P la n
M o n ito r in g
P la n
Process
Function
(Step)
Potential
Failure Modes
(process
defects)
Potential
Failure Effects
(Y's)
C
S
l
E
a
V
s
Potential
Causes of
Failure (X's)
O
C
C
Current
Process
Controls
D
E
T
R
P
N
Recommend
Actions
Responsible
Person &
Target Date
Taken
Actions
S O D
E C E
V C T
R
P
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
A llo w s p ro ce s s m a n a g e r a n d th o s e in v o lv e d in th e p ro ce s s
to s e e th e e n tire p ro ce s s a n d h o w e v e ry o n e co n tr ib u te s to a
d e fe ct fr e e p ro d u ct/ s e rv ice .
P ro v id e s th e m e a n s to k e e p th e d o cu m e n t cu rre n t
re a s s e s s in g R P N s a s th e p ro ce s s ch a n g e s
Monitoring Plan
Check Lists/Matrices
Key items to check
Decision criteria; decision road map
Multi-variable tables
Monitoring
Plan
Visual Management
Alerts or signals to trigger action.
Empty bins being returned to when need stock
replenished
Red/yellow/green reports to signal process
performance
Can be audible also.
5S is necessary for Visual Management
663

Response Plan
R e s p o n s e P la n s outline process(es) to follow when
there is a defect or O ut of C ontrol from monitoring :
O ut of control point on C ontrol C hart
N on random behavior within C ontrol Limits in
C ontrol C hart
C ondition/ variable proven to produce defects present in process
C heck sheet failure
A utomation failure
Response to poor process results are a must in training .
R e s p o n s e P la n s a r e liv in g d o cu m e n ts u p d a te d w ith
n e w in fo r m a tio n a s it b e co m e s a v a ila b le .
C o m p o n e n ts o f R e s p o n s e P la n :
The trig g ers for a response

W hat are the failure modes to check for?
Usually monitor the hig hest risk X's in the process
The recommended response for the failure mode
The responsibilities for responding to the failure mode
Documentation of Response Plan being followed in a failure mode
Detailed information on the conditions surrounding the failure
mode
664

Response Plan Abnormality Report
P ro v id e a m e th o d fo r
o n -g o in g co n tin u o u s
im p ro v e m e n t.
R e in fo rce
co m m itm e n t to
e lim in a tin g d e fe cts .
Process
Metric
Current Situation
D e ta ile d d o cu m e n ta tio n
w h e n fa ilu re m o d e s
o ccu r.
Signal
Situation Code
Detailed Situation
Investigation of Cause
Date
Code of Cause
Corrective Action
Fits w ith IS O 9 0 0 0 s ta n d a rd o f Who

To Be
Involved

h a v in g a C A R o r C o rre ctiv e
What To Be Done
A ctio n R e q u e s t.
M e th o d to co lle ct fre q u e n cy o f
Date for implementation of permanent prevention
co rre ctiv e a ctio n s .
Root Cause Analysis
Date for completion of analysis
Aligning Systems and Structures
Systems and structures are the basis for allowing

people to chang e their behaviors permanently:
Performance g oals/ objectives
Policies/ procedures
Job descriptions
Incentive compensation
Incentive prog rams, contests, etc
A lig n in g
S y s te m s
& S tr u ctu r e s
Th e r e a r e lo n g - a n d s h o r t-te r m s tr a te g ie s
fo r a lig n m e n t o f s y s te m s a n d s tr u ctu r e s .
665

Aligning Systems and Structures (cont.)
G et rid of measurements that do not alig n with

desired behaviors
A lig n in g
G et rid of multiple measures for the same

desired behaviors
S y s te m s
& S tr u ctu r e s
Implement measures that alig n with desired behaviors currently not

motivated by incentives
C hang e manag ement must consider your process chang es and how
the process will respond?
A re the hourly incentives hurting your chance of success?
Project Sign Off
Best method to assure acceptance of C ontrol Plan is

having supervisors and manag ement for the area
A lig n in g
involved.
S y s te m s
Meeting for a summary report
& S tr u ctu r e s
Specific chang es to the process hig hlig hted
Information where C ontrol Plan is filed
thats
a C ontrol Plan!!
Plan!
NowNow
thats
a Control
666

Identify all 5 phases of the Six Sigma methodology
Identify at least 3 tools from each phase
Show progress on your ongoing project
Now for the last few questions to ask if you have been progressing on a real world project while
taking this learning. First, has your project made success in the primary metric without
compromising your secondary metrics? Second, have you been faithfully updating your metric
charts and keeping your process owner and project champion updated on your teams activities. If
not, then start NOW.
Remember a basic change management idea you learned in the Define Phase. If you get
involvement of team members who work in the process and keep the project champion and process
owner updated as to results, then you have the greatest chance of success.
You have now completed Control Phase Six Sigma Control Plans.
Notes
667
Lean Six Sigma

Black Belt Training
Control Phase
668

Control Phase OverviewThe Goal
The goal of the Control Phase is to:

Assess the final Process Capability.
Revisit Lean with an eye for sustaining the project.
Evaluate methods for Defect Prevention.
Explore various methods to monitor process using SPC.
Implement a Control Plan.
Gooooaaallllll!!!
Organizational Change
Ea ch p la y e r in th e p r o ce s s h a s a r o le in
S U S TA IN IN G p r o je ct s u cce s s a ch ie v e d .
A ccept responsibility
Monitoring
Responding
Manag ing
Embracing chang e & continuous learning
Potential for horiz ontal replication or expansion of results
669

Control PhaseThe Roadblocks
Look for the potential roadblocks and plan to address them

before they become problems:
Lack of project sig n off
Team members are not involved in C ontrol Plan desig n
Manag ement does not have knowledg e on monitoring and
reacting needs
Financial benefits are not tracked and integ rated into
business
Lack of buy in of process operators or staff
C hampion/
Process O wner
DMAIC Roadmap
Define

Estima te C O PQ
Improve
A nalyz e
Measure
Establish Tea m
C ontrol
670

Control Phase
Improvement S elected
Develop Training Plan
Implement Training Plan
Develop Documentation Plan
Implement Documentation Plan
Develop Monitoring Plan
Implement Monitoring Plan
Develop Response Plan
Implement Response Plan
Develop Plan to A lig n S ystems and S tructures
A lig n S ystems and S tructures
G o to N ext Project
Control Phase Checklist

Control Questions
Step One: Process Enhancement And Control
Results
How do the results of the improvement(s) match the requirements of the business
case and improvement goals?
What are the vital few Xs?
How will you control or redesign these Xs?
Is there a process control plan in place?
Has the control plan been handed off to the process owner?
Step Two: Capability Analysis for X and Y
Process Capability
How are you monitoring the Ys?
Step Three: Standardization And Continuous Improvement
How are you going to ensure that this problem does not return?
Is the learning transferable across the business?
What is the action plan for spreading the best practice?
Is there a project documentation file?
How is this referenced in process procedures and product drawings?
What is the mechanism to ensure this is not reinvented in the future?
Step Four: Document what you have learned
Is there an updated FMEA?
Is the control plan fully documented and implemented ?
What are the financial implications?
Are there any spin-off projects?
What lessons have you learned?
General Questions
Are there any issues/barriers preventing the completion of the project?
Do the Champion, the Belt and Finance all agree that this project is complete?
671

Planning for Action
WHAT
WHO
W H EN
WHY
W H Y N O T
HOW
Test validation plan for a specific time

C alculate benefits for breakthrough
Implement chang e across project team
Process map of improved process
Finaliz e Key Input Variables (KPIV) to meet g oal
Prioritiz e risks of output failure
C ontrol plan for output
C ontrol plan for inputs
C hart a plan to accomplish the desired state of the culture
Mistake proofing plan for inputs or outputs
Implementation plan for effective procedures
Knowledg e transfer between Belt, PO , and team members
Knowledg e sharing between businesses and divisions
Lean project control plan
Establish continuous or attribute metrics for C pk
Identify actual versus apparent C pk
Finaliz e problem solving strateg y
C omplete RPN assessment with revised frequency and controls
Show improvement in RPN through action items
Repeat same process for secondary metrics
Summary
A t th is p o in t, y o u s h o u ld :
Have a clear understanding of the specific deliverables to complete
your project.
Have started to develop a project plan to meet the deliverables.
Have identified ways to deal with potential roadblocks.
Be ready to apply the Six Sig ma method on your N EXT project.
672

Its a Wrap
Congratulations you
have completed Lean
Six Sigma Black Belt
Training!!!
673
Glossary
Affinity Diagram - A technique for organizing individual pieces of information into groups or broader categories.
ANOVA - Analysis of Variance A statistical test for identifying significant differences between process or
system treatments or conditions. It is done by comparing the variances around the means of the conditions
being compared.
Attribute Data - Data which on one of a set of discrete values such as pass or fail, yes or no.
Average - Also called the mean, it is the arithmetic average of all of the sample values. It is calculated by adding
all of the sample values together and dividing by the number of elements (n) in the sample.
Bar Chart - A graphical method which depicts how data fall into different categories.
Black Belt - An individual who receives approximately four weeks training in DMAIC, analytical problem solving,
and change management methods. A Black Belt is a full time six sigma team leader solving problems under the
direction of a Champion.
Breakthrough Improvement - A rate of improvement at or near 70% over baseline performance of the as-is
process characteristic.
Capability - A comparison of the required operation width of a process or system to its actual performance
width. Expressed as a percentage (yield), a defect rate (dpm, dpmo,), an index (Cp, Cpk, Pp, Ppk), or as a
sigma score (Z).
Cause and Effect Diagram - Fishbone Diagram - A pictorial diagram in the shape of a fishbone showing all
possible variables that could affect a given process output measure.
Central Tendency - A measure of the point about which a group of values is clustered; two measures of central
tendency are the mean, and the median.
Champion -A Champion recognizes, defines, assigns and supports the successful completion of six sigma
projects; they are accountable for the results of the project and the business roadmap to achieve six sigma
within their span of control.
Characteristic - A process input or output which can be measured and monitored.
Common Causes of Variation - Those sources of variability in a process which are truly random, i.e., inherent
in the process itself.
Complexity -The level of difficulty to build, solve or understand something based on the number of inputs,
interactions and uncertainty involved.
Control Chart - The most powerful tool of statistical process control. It consists of a run chart, together with
statistically determined upper and lower control limits and a centerline.
Control Limits - Upper and lower bounds in a control chart that are determined by the process itself. They can
be used to detect special or common causes of variation. They are usually set at 3 standard deviations from
the central tendency.
Correlation Coefficient - A measure of the linear relationship between two variables.
Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ) - The costs associated with any activity that is not doing the right thing right the
first time. It is the financial qualification any waste that is not integral to the product or service which your
company provides.
674
Glossary
CP - A capability measure defined as the ratio of the specification width to short-term process performance
width.
CPk -. An adjusted short-term capability index that reduces the capability score in proportion to the offset of the
process center from the specification target.
Critical to Quality (CTQ) - Any characteristic that is critical to the perceived quality of the product, process or
system. See Significant Y.
Critical X - An input to a process or system that exerts a significant influence on any one or all of the key
outputs of a process.
Customer - Anyone who uses or consumes a product or service, whether internal or external to the providing
organization or provider.
Cycle Time - The total amount of elapsed time expended from the time a task, product or service is started
until it is completed.
Defect - An output of a process that does not meet a defined specification, requirement or desire such as time,
length, color, finish, quantity, temperature etc.
Defective - A unit of product or service that contains at least one defect.
Deployment (Six Sigma) - The planning, launch, training and implementation management of a six sigma
initiative within a company.
Design of Experiments (DOE) - Generally, it is the discipline of using an efficient, structured, and proven
approach to interrogating a process or system for the purpose of maximizing the gain in process or system
knowledge.
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) - The use of six sigma thinking, tools and methods applied to the design of
products and services to improve the initial release performance, ongoing reliability, and life-cycle cost.
DMAIC - The acronym for core phases of the six sigma methodology used to solve process and business
problems through data and analytical methods. See define, measure, analyze, improve and control.
DPMO - Defects per million opportunities The total number of defects observed divided by the total number
of opportunities, expressed in parts per million. Sometimes called Defects per Million (DPM).
DPU - Defects per unit - The total number of defects detected in some number of units divided by the total
number of those units.
Entitlement - The best demonstrated performance for an existing configuration of a process or system. It is an
empirical demonstration of what level of improvement can potentially be reached.
Epsilon - Greek symbol used to represent residual error.
Experimental Design - See Design of Experiments.
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) - A procedure used to identify, assess, and mitigate risks
associated with potential product, system, or process failure modes.
Finance Representative - An individual who provides an independent evaluation of a six sigma project in
terms of hard and/or soft savings. They are a project support resource to both Champions and Project
Leaders.
675
Glossary
Fishbone Diagram - See cause and effect diagram.
Flowchart - A graphic model of the flow of activities, material, and/or information that occurs during a process.
Gage R&R - Quantitative assessment of how much variation (repeatability and reproducibility) is in a measurement
system compared to the total variation of the process or system.
Green Belt - An individual who receives approximately two weeks of training in DMAIC, analytical problem solving,
and change management methods. A Green Belt is a part time six sigma position that applies six sigma to their
local area, doing smaller-scoped projects and providing support to Black Belt projects.
Hidden Factory or Operation - Corrective and non-value-added work required to produce a unit of output that is
generally not recognized as an unnecessary generator of waste in form of resources, materials and cost.
Histogram - A bar chart that depicts the frequencies (by the height of the plotted bars) of numerical or
measurement categories.
Implementation Team - A cross-functional executive team representing various areas of the company . Its charter
is to drive the implementation of six sigma by defining and documenting practices, methods and operating policies.
Input - A resource consumed, utilized, or added to a process or system. Synonymous with X, characteristic, and
input variable.
Input-Process-Output (IPO) Diagram - A visual representation of a process or system where inputs are
represented by input arrows to a box (representing the process or system) and outputs are shown using arrows
emanating out of the box.
lshikawa Diagram - See cause and effect diagram and fishbone diagram.
Least Squares - A method of curve-fitting that defines the best fit as the one that minimizes the sum of the squared
deviations of the data points from the fitted curve.
Long-term Variation - The observed variation of an input or output characteristic which has had the opportunity to
experience the majority of the variation effects that influence it.
Lower Control Limit (LCL) - for control charts: the limit above which the subgroup statistics must remain for the
process to be in control. Typically, 3 standard deviations below the central tendency.
Lower Specification Limit (LSL) - The lowest value of a characteristic which is acceptable.
Master Black Belt - An individual who has received training beyond a Black Belt. The technical, go-to expert
regarding technical and project issues in six sigma. Master Black Belts teach and mentor other six sigma Belts,
their projects and support Champions.
Mean - See average.
Measurement - The act of obtaining knowledge about an event or characteristic through measured quantification
or assignment to categories.
Measurement Accuracy - For a repeated measurement, it is a comparison of the average of the measurements
compare to some known standard.
Measurement Precision - For a repeated measurement, it is the amount of variation that exists in the measured
values.
676
Glossary
Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA) - An assessment of the accuracy and precision of a method of obtaining
measurements. See also Gage R&R.
Median - The middle value of a data set when the values are arranged in either ascending or descending order.
Metric - A measure that is considered to be a key indicator of performance. It should be linked to goals or
objectives and carefully monitored.
Natural Tolerances of a Process - See Control Limits.
Nominal Group Technique - A structured method that a team can use to generate and rank a list of ideas or items.
Non-Value Added (NVA) - Any activity performed in producing a product or delivering a service that does not add
value, where value is defined as changing the form, fit or function of the product or service and is something for
which the customer is willing to pay.
Normal Distribution - The distribution characterized by the smooth, bell- shaped curve. Synonymous with
Gaussian Distribution.
Objective Statement - A succinct statement of the goals, timing and expectations of a six sigma improvement
project.
Opportunities - The number of characteristics, parameters or features of a product or service that can be classified
as acceptable or unacceptable.
Out of Control - A process is said to be out of control if it exhibits variations larger than its control limits or shows a
pattern of variation.
Output - A resource or item or characteristic that is the product of a process or system. See also Y, CTQ.
Pareto Chart - A bar chart for attribute (or categorical) data categories are presented in descending order of
frequency.
Pareto Principle - The general principle originally proposed by Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) that the majority of
influence on an outcome is exerted by a minority of input factors.
Poka-Yoke - A translation of a Japanese term meaning to mistake-proof.
Probability - The likelihood of an event or circumstance occurring.
Problem Statement - A succinct statement of a business situation which is used to bound and describe the
problem the six sigma project is attempting to solve.
Process - A set of activities and material and/or information flow which transforms a set of inputs into outputs for
the purpose of producing a product, providing a service or performing a task.
Process Characterization - The act of thoroughly understanding a process, including the specific relationship(s)
between its outputs and the inputs, and its performance and capability.
Process Certification - Establishing documented evidence that a process will consistently produce required
outcome or meet required specifications.
Process Flow Diagram - See flowchart.
677
Glossary
Process Member - A individual who performs activities within a process to deliver a process output, a product
or a service to a customer.
Process Owner - Process Owners have responsibility for process performance and resources. They provide
support, resources and functional expertise to six sigma projects. They are accountable for implementing
developed six sigma solutions into their process.
Quality Function Deployment (QFD) - A systematic process used to integrate customer requirements into
every aspect of the design and delivery of products and services.
Range - A measure of the variability in a data set. It is the difference between the largest and smallest values
in a data set.
Regression Analysis - A statistical technique for determining the mathematical relation between a measured
quantity and the variables it depends on. Includes Simple and Multiple Linear Regression.
Repeatability (of a Measurement) - The extent to which repeated measurements of a particular object with a
particular instrument produce the same value. See also Gage R&R.
Reproducibility (of a Measurement) - The extent to which repeated measurements of a particular object with
a particular individual produce the same value. See also Gage R&R.
Rework - Activity required to correct defects produced by a process.
Risk Priority Number (RPN) - In Failure Mode Effects Analysis -- the aggregate score of a failure mode
including its severity, frequency of occurrence, and ability to be detected.
Rolled Throughput Yield (RTY) - The probability of a unit going through all process steps or system
characteristics with zero defects.
R.U.M.B.A. - An acronym used to describe a method to determine the validity of customer requirements. It
stands for Reasonable, Understandable, Measurable, Believable, and Achievable.
Run Chart - A basic graphical tool that charts a characteristics performance over time.
Scatter Plot - A chart in which one variable is plotted against another to determine the relationship, if any,
between the two.
Screening Experiment - A type of experiment to identify the subset of significant factors from among a large
group of potential factors.
Short Term Variation - The amount of variation observed in a characteristic which has not had the opportunity
to experience all the sources of variation from the inputs acting on it.
Sigma Score (Z) - A commonly used measure of process capability that represents the number of short-term
standard deviations between the center of a process and the closest specification limit. Sometimes referred to
as sigma level, or simply Sigma.
Significant Y - An output of a process that exerts a significant influence on the success of the process or the
customer.
Six Sigma Leader - An individual that leads the implementation of Six Sigma, coordinating all of the necessary
activities, assures optimal results are obtained and keeps everyone informed of progress made.
678
Glossary
Six Sigma Project - A well defined effort that states a business problem in quantifiable terms and with known
improvement expectations.
Six Sigma (System) - A proven set of analytical tools, project management techniques, reporting methods and
management techniques combined to form a powerful problem solving and business improvement methodology.
Special Cause Variation - Those non-random causes of variation that can be detected by the use of control charts
and good process documentation.
Specification Limits - The bounds of acceptable performance for a characteristic.
Stability (of a Process) - A process is said to be stable if it shows no recognizable pattern of change and no
special causes of variation are present.
Standard Deviation - One of the most common measures of variability in a data set or in a population. It is the
square root of the variance.
Statistical Problem - A problem that is addressed with facts and data analysis methods.
Statistical Process Control (SPC) - The use of basic graphical and statistical methods for measuring, analyzing,
and controlling the variation of a process for the purpose of continuously improving the process. A process is said to
be in a state of statistical control when it exhibits only random variation.
Statistical Solution - A data driven solution with known confidence/risk levels, as opposed to a qualitative, I think
solution.
Supplier - An individual or entity responsible for providing an input to a process in the form of resources or
information.
Trend - A gradual, systematic change over time or some other variable.
TSSW - Thinking the six sigma way A mental model for improvement which perceives outcomes through a cause
and effect relationship combined with six sigma concepts to solve everyday and business problems.
Two-Level Design - An experiment where all factors are set at one of two levels, denoted as low and high (-1 and +
1).
Upper Control Limit (UCL) for Control Charts - The upper limit below which a process statistic must remain to be
in control. Typically this value is 3 standard deviations above the central tendency.
Upper Specification Limit (USL) - The highest value of a characteristic which is acceptable.
Variability - A generic term that refers to the property of a characteristic, process or system to take on different
values when it is repeated.
Variables - Quantities which are subject to change or variability.
Variable Data - Data which is continuous, which can be meaningfully subdivided, i.e. can have decimal
subdivisions.
Variance - A specifically defined mathematical measure of variability in a data set or population. It is the square of
the standard deviation.
Variation - See variability.
679
Glossary
VOB - Voice of the business Represents the needs of the business and the key stakeholders of the business.
It is usually items such as profitability, revenue, growth, market share, etc.
VOC - Voice of the customer Represents the expressed and non-expressed needs, wants and desires of the
recipient of a process output, a product or a service. Its is usually expressed as specifications, requirements or
expectations.
VOP - Voice of the process Represents the performance and capability of a process to achieve both
business and customer needs. It is usually expressed in some form of an efficiency and/or effectiveness
metric.
Waste - Waste represents material, effort and time that does not add value in the eyes of key stakeholders
(Customers, Employees, Investors).
X - An input characteristic to a process or system. In six sigma it is usually used in the expression of Y=f(X),
where the output (Y) is a function of the inputs (X).
Y - An output characteristic of a process. In six sigma it is usually used in the expression of Y=f(X), where the
output (Y) is a function of the inputs (X).
Yellow Belt - An individual who receives approximately one week of training in problem solving and process
optimization methods. Yellow Belts participate in Process Management activates, participate on Green and
Black Belt projects and apply concepts to their work area and their job.
Z Score See Sigma Score.
A scientific approach to sustainably solving problems,

reducing defects and getting results.
Lean Six Sigma is truly a remarkable problem-solving technology.

First and foremost in gaining benefit from its use is your ability to see
the possibilities. Part of this class is aimed at accomplishing this. You
yourself know what issues and problems confront your everyday
work experience. When you can see the power of Lean Six Sigma, you
will be able to do something about these problems like you have
never done before.
An e-Careers Limited Publication
10 Riverside Business Park

Stony Common Road
Stansted Mountfitchet
Essex. CM24 8PL. United Kingdom
Email: info@e-careers.com
(UK 0044) (0) 1279 799 444

ECareers BB EL Manual XL PDF

Transféré par

Informations du document

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

ECareers BB EL Manual XL PDF

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

eCareers Limited

Lean Six Sigma

Lean Six Sigma Black Belt

An e-Careers Limited Publication

10 Riverside Business Park

2013 e-Careers Limited. All rights are reserved. Individual Copy. No

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Lean Six Sigma

Welcome to the Black Belt Training Course.

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

Understanding Six Sigma

We will examine the

Six Sigma Vocabulary

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

What is Six Sigmaas a Tool?

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

highest level of process performance possible.

Low Hanging Fruit

History of Six Sigma

1984 Bob Galvin of Motorola articulated the first objectives of a

1984 Texas Instruments and ABB Work closely with Motorola to

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

1994 Application experts leave Motorola

1995 AlliedSignal begins Six Sigma initiative as directed by Larry

1997 to Present: Six Sigma spans industries worldwide

Keeps getting better!!

The Phase Approach of Six Sigma

LSS Black Belt Manual XL v11

2013 e-Careers Limited

Understanding Six Sigma

DMAIC Phases Roadmap

Identify Problem A rea

Determine A ppropria te Project Focus

A ssess Sta bility, C apability, a nd Mea surement Systems

Identify, Prioritiz e, Select Solutions C ontrol or Eliminate Xs C a using Problems

Prove/ Disprove Impact Xs Ha ve O n Problem

Implement C ontrol Pla n to Ensure Problem Does N ot Return

Implement Solutions to C ontrol or Eliminate Xs C a using Problems

Verify Financia l Impact

This roadmap provides an overview of the DMAIC approach.

Here is a more granular

N otify Belts and S takeholders

This is what you will

C reate H ig h-Level Process Map

Determine A ppropriate Project Focus

Recommend Project Focus

Rea dy for Mea sure