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TedCruz'splantosinkMarcoRubioinFloridaCNNPolitics.com

Inside Ted Cruz's plan to sink Marco Rubio in

Florida
By Theodore Schleifer, CNN
Updated 0400 GMT (1200 HKT) March 5, 2016 | Video
Source: CNN

Story highlights
Ted Cruz's aides and allies are preparing an
aggressive effort to keep Marco Rubio from
winning his home state of Florida on March 15

(CNN)Ted Cruz is going for the kill shot.

Cruz's aides and allies are preparing an aggressive
effort to keep Marco Rubio from winning his home
state of Florida on March 15, a blow they hope would
render Rubio's path to the GOP nomination
unimaginable and force him to withdraw.

They believe that would force Rubio out of the

race

A Rubio loss, Cruz's orbit believes, would then set up

the two-man race with Donald Trump they believe they
are destined for -- and absolutely need -- to win.

The risk is that it will help Donald Trump get

ever closer to the GOP nomination

"Florida's a burning dumpster fire for Marco Rubio,"

said Cruz spokesman Ron Nehring. "If he doesn't win
his own state, it's hard to rationalize going forward."

The strategy is not without risk: A Trump victory in Florida puts him 99 delegates closer to clinching the GOP
nomination, weakening rivals' hopes of keeping him from reaching the delegate threshold and then defeating
him at a brokered convention. And keeping Rubio from climbing is likely to cost millions of dollars.
A February poll showed Rubio 16 points ahead of Cruz, but 16 points behind Trump, who led the field in the
Quinnipiac University survey at 48%.
Cruz is planning to spend part of next week in Florida, and in recent days his campaign opened 10 offices
across the state. Under the direction of one of the aides who engineered his Iowa win, deputy Iowa state
director Spence Rogers, Cruz has 300 county chairs and his campaign is preparing to unveil major
endorsements and a list of Cuban-American supporters in coming days.
He shouldn't be short of cash. Cruz will attend a major fundraiser Monday in Houston, and the main proCruz super PAC, Keep the Promise, unveiled a new big-money group Friday meant to draw in top donors.
Keep the Promise is expected to advertise heavily in Florida.
With 10 media markets, Florida is one of the most expensive states in the country in which to advertise. Ten
days out, the advertising war is frantic and escalating, as super PACs and campaigns empty their war
chests on the first winner-take-all day on the GOP calendar. Paul Porter, a top Cruz fundraiser from Florida
who helped set up Cruz's ground game in the state, said the race would now be dominated in part by
negative advertisements.
Blake MacDiarmid, an unaligned Florida Republican strategist, said Team Cruz's overwhelming focus should
be to "slice and dice" Rubio in Florida and make his home turf a "real Rubicon."
"Train your super PACs and your messaging on Rubio and keep him from getting up and winning," said
MacDiarmid. "If you give him a little bit of Gatorade, the guy can make it happen."

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Rubio's response
It would require an extraordinary turn in the race's momentum for Rubio to earn the 1,237 delegates to
become the nominee. His team's most realistic path to victory relies on denying Trump that total and forcing
a contested convention. Florida keeps that dream alive.
Rubio senior adviser Todd Harris said he would spend the "overwhelming majority of our time" between
Saturday and the big day in his home state, scaling back his more ambitious hopes to compete in the other
March 15 states. He again on Thursday pledged to win in Florida.
Rubio's super PAC, Conservative Solutions, has already poured $5.3 million into the state, much of which is
being spent attacking Trump. Also joining in the cavalcade of anti-Trump forces are three unaligned outside
groups: American Future Fund, Our Principles PAC and the Club for Growth, which together are on track to
spend $3.5 million hitting him over the past week.
Some Rubio supporters take umbrage at what Cruz is trying to do, even as they crow that he will be
unsuccessful. Ryan Wiggins, a Republican operative backing Rubio, predicted that Jeb Bush, who dropped
out of the race three weeks ago, would beat Cruz in early voting.
"I think it's interesting that Ted Cruz would harm someone that is trying to help the party right now," said
Wiggins, who thinks Cruz's strategy in Florida would make it difficult for anyone not named Donald Trump to
be the nominee. "Politics is playing a long game, and that's a very, very shortsighted view of a long game."
And while Trump is leading, Rubio's team insists their private polling reveals a much closer race, and points
to Rubio's stronger-than-expected performance in Virginia as evidence that their candidate will close strong.
Rubio has consistently performed better than his polling numbers in key races this year, even if he has only
won one state: Minnesota.
Rubio should not be surprised that Cruz is seeking to embarrass him: Rubio did the same to Cruz in Texas.
Rubio's campaign and super PAC dedicated advertising money and candidate time in specific congressional
districts to try to limit Cruz's haul on his home turf. (Cruz was held below the 50% needed to win all
statewide delegates, but it had a cost for Rubio, who was held below 20% and walked away close to
empty-handed.)

Trump attacks 'little Marco'

Meanwhile, Trump, who owns substantial property in Florida and considers the state a second home, is
beginning to defend himself with his own paid media. Late Thursday, he began a series of advertising buys
that came close to $2 million. His campaign declined to make its Florida state director available for an
interview, but the candidate himself has pledged to win the state.
"You know that in Florida, they hate little Marco so much," Trump said in Michigan on Friday. "Maybe we'll
be a little softer on little Marco. No?"
Despite Cruz's eagerness, some in Florida politics wonder if Cruz is arriving too late: His campaign or super
PACs are not yet on the airwaves, while early voting expands statewide on Sunday, possibly numbering as
many votes as those cast on Election Day.
Cruz aides and Florida leaders are making no bones about what is driving them and it's not adoration for
Trump.
"If the people who know you are rejecting you, it's time to get out," said Manny Roman, the vice chairman of
the Miami-Dade GOP, who defected from Rubio to Cruz's leadership team.
Cruz, unlike Rubio, has declined to concede that he himself cannot reach the magic number of 1,237
delegates, an assumption that undergirds much of his Florida strategy. And his backers agree.
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His campaign eyes March 15 as a pivot point in the race: a moment when a Rubio loss in Florida perhaps
combined with the defeat of John Kasich in his native Ohio could end in a two-man race that Cruz says
would allow him to take advantage of the high number of Republicans opposed to a Trump nomination.
Even that path, though, would still require Cruz take a solid majority of the delegates between March 16 and
the convention in June.
"If Trump wins Florida -- that gives him 99 -- and Rubio gets out and Sen. Cruz gets to go one-on-one,
there's still enough time for Sen. Cruz to get the 1,237," said Porter. "And no deals are going to be made."
CNN's Ashley Killough contributed to this report

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